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GREAT
ACCELERATION
Super-Exponen-al
Growth Rates
Figure 1. Trends from 1750 to 2010 in globally aggregated indicators for socio-economic development.
(1) Global population data according to the HYDE (History Database of the Global Environment, 2013)
Steffen et al. 87
GREAT
ACCELERATION
Super-Exponen-al
Growth Rates
Figure 3. Trends from 1750 to 2010 in indicators for the structure and functioning of the Earth System.
(1) Carbon dioxide from firn and ice core records (Law Dome, Antarctica) and Cape Grim, Australia
EXCEEDING SAFE PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
Humans release CO2 emissions every 10 hours equal to the
Mount Pinatubo volcanic erup<on, Philippines, 1991
BAU = 90,000 erup<ons in 21st Century
$29 Trillion per year costs by 2050 due to global
GHG emissions. Equivalent to 15.8/kWh
US Geological Survey, Volcanoes, h,ps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php
p e ak by
issions o by
l em zer
Globa decline to
2020, 040-2050
2
f pl anet
e pa rts o ring
U - Larg e , r e cur
BA itab l te rs
ab a s
uninh rophic dis
t
catas
Tipping Elements: Catastrophic addi-ons
h"ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9ETiSaxy<
Tipping Elements: Climate-triggered Risk
Thomas S. Lontzek, Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L. Judd and Timothy M. Lenton (2015) StochasPc integrated assessment of climate Ppping points
indicates the need for strict climate policy, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, May 2015, www.nature.com/natureclimatechange
NET? Nega-ve Emission Technologies
Close scru6ny of Paris There are severe ecological JUST one GtCO2
Agreement nds the limits to BECCS expansion, in would require 20
scenarios consistent addi6on to real serious trade- millions tons of
with 2C rely on BECCS os with other compe6ng nitrogen, equal to
to deliver roughly 10 needs (food, ber, feed). 1/5th of total global
GtCO2 annually by 2100 fer6lizer nitrogen
(i.e., about 20% of 2017 Growing high-yield perennial produc6on.
CO2 emissions). crops like Switchgrass to
annually remove JUST one Consume 4 Trillion
Given the oceans GtCO2 would consume up to 1 m3 of water per
currently remove about billion hectares of farmland. year, equal to
10 GtCO2 the roughly total
expecta-on is that This is 25 6mes greater than annual global water
BECCS can establish an U.S. area currently under corn extrac6on for all
addi-onal carbon sink produc6on AND 25% of THE uses!
on the order of WORLDS TOTAL ARABLE LAND
magnitude of the AREA.
worlds oceans!
Smith, L. J. and M.S.Torn (2013) Ecological limits to terrestrial biological CO2 removal, Clima/c Change 118(1):89-103.
Externali<es Dened as
Private Gain, Public Pain
Lungs of L.A. Teenage
NON-smoker in 1970s;
Condi<on in Most Big Ci<es
of the World Today
POLLUTION COST to LIVES?
cyber
Wars
Nuclear Reactor Disaster - $700 billion poten9al loss
Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies 2011-2015
$5.5 Trillion per year 6% Global GDP
6
U.S. $ Trillions (nominal)
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
IMF
Assessment,
May 2015
ENERGY MOBILITY COMMUNICATIONS
1ST Industrial
Revolu<on
2nd Industrial
Revolu<on
3rd Industrial
Revolu<on
Tony Seba & James Arbib, RethinkX, DisrupPons, ImplicaPons, Choices -- Rethinking TransportaPon 2020-2030, The Disrup/on of
Transporta/on and the Collapse of the Internal-Combus/on Vehicle and Oil Industries , May 2017, h"p://www.rethinkx.com/
SUPER-EXPONENTIAL RATES
TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION
CONVERGENCE
u ELECTRIFICATION
u DIGITIZATION
u DIGITALIZATION
u MASS MINIMIZATION
u MINIATURIZATION
u MODULARIZATION
u NETWORK CONNECTIVITY (IPv6)
Two Explosive Exponential Trends driving
IP addressable Internet of Everything (IoE)
ensors) Visions
Machine-to-Machine (M2M) People Online (billions)
s not 4.5
earch 4
nentially
3.5 People Online
2.5
see it.
iven by new 2
ding market
1.5
es! 1
0.5
0
1995 2000 2014 2020
Source: Benedict Evans, Industrial Internet,11-2014, Partner, Andreesen-
Horowitz; and, B. Evans, Mobile Is Eating the World, May 2013
(Left) Road Map for the Trillion Sensor Universe, 11/2013, Janusz Bryzek,VP,
MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor
Personal Pocket SuperComputer
SuperComputers Networkers
Miniaturized COIN
technologies technologies
technology and industry experts.
During a series of workshops, the working groups created a list of use cases that could be
applied over the next ten years. These digital use cases form part of the larger digital themes
that relate to some of the major trends powering digitalisation.
Value to industry
Productivity and efficiency
Cost reduction improvements
Value to society
Emissions reduction calculated
Emissions reduced in CO2 equivalent
Illustrative
Box 2: Cost of transport Sources: Authors calculations based on data from Edmunds, Kelley Blue Book, Your Mechanic, U.S. Department of
Energy, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and uSwitch. See Appendix A for further
choices details on the methodology
Use TaaS
TaaS: 16 cents, falling to 10 cents
TaaS Pool: 5 cents,11 falling to 3 cents
Tony Seba & James Arbib, RethinkX, DisrupPons, ImplicaPons, Choices -- Rethinking TransportaPon 2020-2030, The Disrup/on of
Transporta/on and the Collapse of the Internal-Combus/on Vehicle and Oil Industries , May 2017, h"p://www.rethinkx.com/
Why is TaaS so cheap?
40% TaaS vehicle utilization, 10 times higher than IO vehicle utilization. Individually owned cars are used only 4% of the time. While there will be fewer cars,
Insurgents vs. Incumbents
Hollowing Out Major Industries
Figure 7. Revenue distribution along the car value chain
Sources: Authors calculations based on data from Auto Rental, Edmunds, Kelley Blue Book, Ibis World, Statista, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Energy Information
Administration and the Wall Street Journal
Vehicle fleet size will drop by over 80%, from 247 million vehicles in 2020 New vehicle annual unit sales drop 70% by 2030, from 18 million in
to 44 million in 2030. The major driver of a smaller total vehicle stock is 2020 to 5.6 million in 2030 (see Figure 9). While the number of vehicles
increased vehicle asset utilization (see Part I). Just 26 million vehicles will in the overall stock drops by 80% over our timeframe, new vehicle sales
deliver the 5.7 trillion passenger miles traveled via TaaS in the U.S. in 2030, suffer a slightly lower decline. This is because each vehicle under TaaS is
with the remaining 5% of miles attributed to 18 million legacy IO vehicles travelling 10 times farther, and hence reaches its end of life more quickly.
(seeTony Seba & James Arbib, RethinkX, DisrupPons, ImplicaPons, Choices -- Rethinking TransportaPon 2020-2030, The Disrup/on of
Figure 8). Vehicles in the TaaS fleet are therefore on a faster replacement cycle (in
years) even though they have longer lifetimes (in miles).
Transporta/on and the Collapse of the Internal-Combus/on Vehicle and Oil Industries , May 2017, h"p://www.rethinkx.com/
97 million ICE vehicles43 will be left stranded in 2030, representing the
surplus that will be in the vehicle stock as consumers move to TaaS. These New ICE vehicle sales44 are finished by 2024, just three years after the
vehicles may eventually become entirely unsellable as used IO vehicle supply regulatory approval and commercial availability of A-EV technology. In
From Pipes to Plalorms Linear to Networks
THE 1. The ecosystem is the new
warehouse
5. Community management
is the new human
resource management
6. Liquidity management is
the new inventory control
7. Curation and repetition are
the new quality control
8. User journeys are the new
sales funnels
9. Distribution is the new dest
inat ion
10. Behavior design is the new
loyalty prog ram
11. Data science is the new
business process optimization
12. Social feedback is the new
sales commission
13. Algorithms are the new dec
ision makers
14. Real-time customization
is the new market research
15. Plug-and-play is the new
business development
16. The invisible hand is the
Copyright 2015 new iron fist
Sangeet Paul Choudary,
Geoffrey Parker and Source: PLATFORM THINKING
Marshall Van Alstyne
Achieved in
10 years of
opera6on
1.3 billion users, 80%
access by mobile
phone
YouTubes prime6me
audience is bigger
than the top 10 TV
shows combined
h"ps://www.openslatedata.com/news/the-long-tail-of-youtube/
Making Smarter & Integrated Sectors
Grids+Vehicles+Buildings+Industries
design
HVAC Buildings Chillers
geothermal bio
FITs LEDs Solar thermal decoupling+
incentives geospatial mapping COIN Ad hoc self-
aggregationMobility
Pumps/Compressors
organized groups of
solar gardensWater smart sensor networks
Plugloads integration zero waste bikes self-motivated citizens,
complete streetsLandscaping epeat EVs geographically
BIPV
peer-to-peer
codes Solar PVmicrogrids wind
Albedo surfaces
standards innovation networks LEED ++ dispersed, focused on
collaboration
Windows Architecture accomplishing a
Financing
conservation 10xE visualization specific mission
procurement
Social Enterprise Model
Nonprot & For-prot enPPes pursuing dual goals of 1) CreaPng a powerful open-
source VROOM for learning low-risk, low-cost ways to reduce Earths temperature, and
2) COINing ASSETs that enable teams to catalyze acPon on the most eecPve soluPons.
NONPROFIT
Continuous
Continuous feeding new
gleaning new
insights & COINing ASSETS opportunities
& innovations
evidence OPEN-SOURCE PLATFORM
FOR-PROFIT
INTEGRATING 3 COIN MAPPINGS
Geospatial Mapping
Web-based visualization of city ASSETS:
harnessing deep efficiency savings, onsite solar,
locally distributed power and microgrid network.
Tech-knowledge roadmapping
Web-accessible tool library encompassing spectrum of resources for learning,
applied knowledge, capacity building, skills development, training, specialized
competencies, across a myriad of relevant domains (technical, financial, policy,
regulatory, communications, etc)
Action mapping
Identify the goal.
Identify what needs doing to reach that
goal. emission-free city
=10,000
49,417
Future Energy Costs 2050 Money in Your Pocket Using WWS electricity for everything, instead of burning fuel, and
improving energy efficiency means you need much less energy.
P = $2,000
BAU (Business as usual) WWS (Wind, water, solar)
Current demand Wind, Water, Solar
Annual energy, health, and climate cost savings per person
in 2050: $9,303
9.9 c/kWh
-40%
*Health and climate external costs of fossil fuels are another 5.7c/kWh
8.5 c/kWh
TACTICS
MARFORRES Energy Program, providing them with graphical and
Growing ASSETs The Critigen Solar Model assesses all surrounding
Growing ASSETs
topology (e.g. vegetation, buildings) in the data for
tabular reports detailing building, roof-panel and sub-meter
shading impacts and determines hotspots for solar PV.
resolution solar energy production potential and graphically
Building by Building, Campus by Campus, City by City depicts where on the roof the hotspots for solar are. Reports
include 3D perspective views, solar hotspot maps and building-
Solution BIM 7
level solar potential roll-ups. The site assessments were
MARFORRES Energy Program selected Critigen to provide customized
its to reflect MARFORRES-specific criteria and
Solar Site Assessment solution at multiple installations considerations
to and to meet other needs driven by DOD and
legislative mandates.
analyze the opportunity for efficient solar system installation.
Critigen Solar Site Assessment is a remote solar assessment tool
developed from Critigens Solar Mapping program that Result
models
the most important factors in Solar PV production: Critigen Solar Site Assessments have placed actionable
solar access,
shading, rooftop azimuth and pitch, and other local variables, toin the hands of facility and energy managers at
information
determine a buildings solar potential. MARFORRES and are helping them locate the most efficient sites
DSG AGGREGATION for solar energy generation. In addition to ensuring optimal site
Roof&Ground
Critigen performed more thansolar 10 Solar Site Assessments for for
selection the future systems, one assessment revealed
The Critigen Solar Model assesses all surrounding MARFORRES
Rooftop
PV Energy
obstructions
capability Program,
and perimeter providing
setbacks
inventory werethem with graphical and
applied using the MARFORRES 3D data for more
apportion of a rooftop with a planned solar PV system that was
topology (e.g. vegetation, buildings) in the data for
tabular reports detailing building, roof-panel and sub-meter
shading impacts and determines hotspots for solar PV. accurate solar potential calculations. unsuitable for solar energy production. The assessment
resolution solar energy production potential and graphically
allowed MARFORRES to avoid more than $60,000 in costs to
360 Visual Tour 10x EE
depicts where on the roof the hotspots for solar are. Reports
construct the portion of the system that had been overdesigned
include 3D perspective views, solar hotspot maps and building-
by the installer.
level
Onesolar potential
Solar Siteroll-ups.
Assessment The site assessments were
customized to reflect MARFORRES-specific criteria and Costing less than 1% of the cost of a typical large solar PV
allowed MARFORRES to avoid
considerations and to meet other needs driven by DOD andCritigen Solar Site Assessments have proven to provide
system,
more than
legislative $60,000 in costs
mandates. an essential and cost-effective level of assurance that systems
for a solar PV system that will deliver planned return on investment and deliver progress
Result
had been overdesigned. toward legislative mandates faced by Federal agencies.
Critigen Solar Site Assessments have placed actionable
information in the hands of facility and energy managers at
MARFORRES and are helping them locate the most efficient sites
for solar energy generation. In addition to ensuring optimal site
selection for future systems, one assessment revealed
Rooftop obstructions and perimeter setbacks were
applied using the MARFORRES 3D data for more
apportion of a rooftop with a planned solar PV system that was
unsuitable for solar energy production. The assessment
Apps for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge
accurate solar potential calculations.
allowed MARFORRES to avoid more than $60,000 in costs to
Contact
construct
Corporate the portion of the system that had been overdesigned
Headquarters
7604 Technology Way, Suite 300
by the installer.
One Solar Site Assessment Denver, CO 80237 2012 Critigen, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
+1Costing
303.706.0990
less than 1% of the cost of a typical large solar PV All other trademarks used herein are the property of their respective owners.
allowed MARFORRES to avoid critigen.com
system, Critigen Solar Site Assessments have proven to provide
more than $60,000 in costs
an essential and cost-effective level of assurance that systems
ASSETs
Apps for
Spurring
Solar and
Efficiency
Techknowledge
http://www.critigen.com/solution/solar-map-standard-edition
ASSET EXTERIOR BUILDINGS!
US Installed Microgrid
Capacity to Reach
4.3GW by 2022
Source: Olivia Chen, US Installed Microgrid Capacity to Grow 115% and Reach 4.3GW Over the Next 5 Years GreenTech Media, August 2016
HOMELAND SECURITIES
ShiRing Civil infrastructure to
Island-Capable MicroGrids
8 billion GPT Pla2orms 8 billion GPT Pla2orms
School Gardens
Mobility Complete
Streets
Buildings
ICEs-to-EVs
Electrica6on
Homeland
Securi6es
Bonds
Investment Plan
6 Months
$250,000 grant
develop VR
Demonstra6on
experience 18 Months