The Football Formula

The Football
Formula
Your Inside Track To Punting
Riches
Copyright BetterBet Publishing
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Table of Contents
1
INTRODUCTION........................................................ 3
2
INTRODUCTION TO BETTING..................................... 5
ODDS AND PERCENTAGES............................................. 5
THE NOTION OF VALUE................................................. 7
3
INTRODUCTION TO FOOTBALL BETTING.................... 10
THE MARKETS TO AVOID............................................... 11
SCORER/WIN MARKETS................................................ 11
ACCUMULATORS.......................................................... 12
LAST GOAL SCORER..................................................... 13
HALF TIME/FULL TIME.................................................. 14
4
THE MARKET TO ATTACK........................................... 16
ASIAN HANDICAP BETTING........................................... 16
THE HANDICAPS EXPLAINED......................................... 17
THE ADVANTAGES OF ASIAN HANDICAP BETTING............ 33
HOW TO WIN ON THE ASIAN HANDICAPS........................ 37
5
PROFITABLE ASIAN HANDICAP STRATEGIES............. 41
#1 FOLLOW THE FORM................................................. 41
#2 MISSING IN ATTACK................................................ 44
#3 THE DERBY EFFECT.................................................. 47
#4 THE EURO SKEPTIC................................................. 51
6
CONCLUSION............................................................ 55
A BETTER WAY TO BET.................................................. 55
FINAL THOUGHTS........................................................ 55

1
Introduction
Welcome and congratulations on your purchase of The Football
Formula.
This whole package contains over 100 pages of expert profit

sucking techniques on football betting. There are three different
guides included, each covering a separate area of expertise. There
has never been a more thorough and up-to-date guide written on
football betting.
I have tried to cater for the reader who has absolutely no

knowledge of football betting whatsoever. It is for this reason that I
have included sections on betting basics and the explanation of
odds.
This manual is the core guide in the package. In it I detail the

underground football betting market that I use to generate most of
my football profits.
The bonus guides are there to enhance your all round football
betting strategies.
I have included one bonus on betting in-running on football. This

guide will walk you through the process of making money on a
football game whilst it is in play.
With a bit of practice you will be able to master the art of

guaranteeing yourself a profit no matter what the result of the
match.
The final guide in this system is based on football spread betting. It

will explain the basics of spread betting as well as show you which
markets to attack and which to avoid.
I have endeavored to make this package as clear as possible so

that a complete beginner can pick it up and profit from it within a

few days.
However despite my best efforts I can't do it all for you and your
efforts will ultimately decide your own success with the information
I give you.
I sincerely hope you have the ambition to make it work for you.
To Your Success
Kris Jackman
BetterBet Publishing

2
Introduction To Betting
Before we get into the nuts and bolts of football betting it's
important that you completely understand the whole notion of odds
and percentages and value betting.
If you don't understand and respect the notion of value you will
never be able to make profits from betting.
ODDS AND PERCENTAGES
Odds are simply the bookmakers opinion of how likely a certain

event is to occur. The more likely they think a team is to win, the
"shorter" the team's price will be. That is to say the smaller the
return will be for a punter who backs this team to win.
For example if Team A is priced at 2/1 then the bookie is implying

that if that exact match was played 3 times then Team A would win
it once. Or to put it another way Team A has a 33% chance of
winning.
There are two main ways odds can be presented. Either in fractions
or decimals.
Fractional Odds
The traditional British way is to describe the odds as a fraction e.g

5/1 or "Five to One". When the first figure is higher than the
second it is called "odds against".
The amount won will be greater than the original stake. For
example if the odds offered were 5/1 then for every 1 staked you
would win 5.
When the first figure is smaller than the second it is called "odds
on" and the amount of winnings will be smaller than the stake. For
example if the odds offered were 4/6 then for every 6 staked you

would win 4.
Below is an example of the odds on offer for a typical football

match:
As you can see Manchester City are the outsiders here and have
odds of 3/1. Essentially the bookies are saying that if this exact
match was played 4 times then Manchester City would win it once.
For every 1 you stake on Manchester City you would win 3 profit
(and get your stake back) if they won the match.
Conversely Arsenal are odds on favourites to win this match at 4/5.

Again here the bookmakers are saying that if this exact match was
played 9 times then Arsenal would win it 5 times.
For every 5 you stake on Arsenal you would win 4 profit (and get
your stake back) if they won the match.
Decimal Odds
Decimal odds used to be reserved for the European betting market

however they are becoming quite common online.
With decimal odds the figure quoted is the return a punter receives
(including the stake) based on a bet of 1 unit. To transfer from
fractional odds to decimal odds simply divide the first number by
the second number and add 1.
So odds of 5/1 become 6 (5 1 + 1 = 6)
and odds of 4/6 become 1.67 (4 6 + 1 = 1.67)

Lets have a look at the Manchester City v Arsenal betting card
again, this time in decimals.
As you can see the 3/1 odds have turned to 4.00 (3 1 + 1)
The best thing about decimals is you can work out your potential
return a lot easier.
For example if we backed Arsenal with a 10 stake we can quickly

see that we would get a return of 18 (1.80 10)
THE NOTION OF VALUE
The notion of value is widely underestimated in the world of

gambling by almost everyone bar the professionals. It is the very
reason that bookmakers are able to profit on every outcome of
every match.
Let me explain.
When you see any set or given odds you can turn each one into a
percentage of winning. (In order to make this easy to do I have
included a table as a reference guide for all the most popular odds
and percentages on page 10.)
For example an evens shot has a 50% chance of winning. A 3/1

shot like Manchester City in the above example have a 25% chance
of winning. All according to the bookmaker of course.
In theory when you add up the percentage chance of each outcome

in a football match the percentages should add up to 100%.
However this isn't the case as the bookmakers like to add in an

over-round so that they can profit whatever the outcome.
Lets look at our example or Manchester City v Arsenal again.
To covert the odds above into percentages simply look at the table
on page 10. Find the relevant odds and check out the percentage
chance of those odds.
Doing this we can see that a Manchester City win priced at 4.00
represents a 25% chance of occurring..
The draw priced at 3.20 represents a 31.25% chance of occurring.

An Arsenal win priced at 1.80 represents a 55.56% chance of
occurring.
Now if we add up all of these percentages we get an overall figure

of 111.81%.
The extra 11.81% represents the bookmakers profit margin. This

simply means if we backed every possible outcome of this match
we would lose 11.81% of our stake.
The higher the bookmaker's profit margin the less value you are
getting as a punter.
As you'll come to see not all markets are created equal, and some
include much higher profits margins for the bookmakers than
others.

Table of Odds and Percentages
Fractional Decimal % Fractional Decimal % Fractional Decimal %

2/7 1.29 77.80 9/5 2.80 35.71 14/1 15.00 6.67
3/10 1.30 76.70 15/8 2.87 34.78 16/1 17.00 5.88
1/3 1.33 75.00 19/10 2.90 34.48 18/1 19.00 5.26
4/11 1.36 73.33 2/1 3.00 33.33 20/1 21.00 4.76
2/5 1.40 71.43 21/10 3.10 32.26 22/1 23.00 4.35
4/9 1.44 69.23 11/5 3.20 31.25 25/1 26.00 3.85
1/2 1.50 66.67 9/4 3.25 30.77 28/1 29.00 3.45
8/15 1.53 65.50 23/10 3.30 30.30 33/1 34.00 2.94
4/7 1.57 63.64 12/5 3.40 29.41 40/1 41.00 2.44
8/13 1.65 61.90 5/2 3.50 28.57 50/1 51.00 1.96
2/3 1.67 60.00 13/5 3.60 27.78 66/1 67.00 1.49
8/11 1.73 57.89 27/10 3.70 27.03 80/1 81.00 1.23
4/5 1.80 55.56 11/4 3.75 26.67 100/1 101.00 0.99
5/6 1.83 54.55 14/5 3.80 26.32
9/10 1.90 52.63 3/1 4.00 25.00
10/11 1.91 52.38 10/3 4.33 23.08
1/1 2.00 50.00 7/2 4.50 22.22
21/20 2.05 48.78 4/1 5.00 20.00
11/10 2.10 47.62 9/2 5.50 18.18
10/9 2.11 47.37 5/1 6.00 16.67
6/5 2.20 45.45 11/2 6.50 15.38
5/4 2.25 44.44 6/1 7.00 14.29
13/10 2.30 43.48 13/2 7.50 13.33
27/20 2.35 42.55 7/1 8.00 12.50
11/8 2.37 42.11 15/8 8.50 11.76
7/5 2.40 41.67 8/1 9.00 11.11
3/2 2.50 40.00 17/2 9.50 10.53
8/5 2.60 38.46 9/1 10.00 10.00
13/8 2.62 38.10 10/1 11.00 9.09
17/10 2.70 37.04 11/1 12.00 8.33
7/4 2.75 36.36 12/1 13.00 7.69

3
Introduction To Football Betting
Football betting has always been extremely popular with punters

but with the advent of online gambling its popularity has soared.
Gone are the days when you only had the options of the pools or
simple win, lose or draw betting to rely on.
In fact the popularity of football betting has meant that it is now

the number one market for online betting, even more popular than
horse racing.
The up-shot of this is the daunting number of options for betting on

football. There are an almost ridiculous number of different markets
available to the punter nowadays. Singles, doubles, first goal
scorer, the score, number of corners, bookings, time of first goal,
half time/full time, one could go on and on.
The screen-shot below shows the depth of markets available for a

regular Saturday football game from the betting exchange, Betfair.

Now Betfair alone give you twenty different markets for football but
the list above is by no means exhaustive.
In fact the popular bookmaker, Ladbrokes, gives its users a choice

of nearly forty different markets for each football match.
Now whilst this range of betting options is undoubtedly good for the
football fan it can also be daunting when trying to consider a
betting strategy.
The main trick to winning when betting on football, and one that I
have used for several years now, is focus.
There is no point in trying to take into account all the markets in

every game or you would be swamped with so much data you
would never place a bet.
You would never be able to get a consistent run going if you hop
from one market to the other. Over complicating things is one of
the main reasons most punters lose in the long run.
THE MARKETS TO AVOID
To further complicate things not all football betting markets are

created equal.
The bookmakers are certainly taking a quantity not quality

approach and this can really hurt the nave punter.
In this section I am going to identify the markets which are the

bookmakers' best friends and the punters' worst enemy.
SCORER/WIN DOUBLES
These are one of the bookmakers' favourites. If you've ever walked

past a bookmaker's front window before the weekend football you
will have seen these right at the front.
And there's only one reason why...it is these types of bet that make
them the most money.

They know that punters on the way to the match/pub will wander
past the front window and see an alluring sign that will probably
proclaim the following:
'Chelsea to beat West Ham and Drogba to score: A 20 stake wins

220'
The punter thinks to himself; Well Chelsea are bound to win this
one, and Drogba is their main goal scorer, so I can't lose, right?
Wrong. You may win the odd one or two but over the course of a
season you will most certainly be down.
Essentially the bookmaker is asking you to place a bet on two

different markets at once in order to amplify his profit margins.
The odds for each individual outcome are so poor that he has to
band them together to attract the punters. Steer well clear.
ACCUMULATORS
This is another one for the mugs. Accumulators simply involve

picking two or more teams to win their respective games.
Now the problem is we all remember the articles in the paper about
the footy fan who won a massive amount with a simple ten team
accumulator and we think to ourselves, How hard can that be?
It sounds obvious but the trouble is you have to get every single
result spot on. If one last minute goal goes against you the whole
accumulator is lost.
This has probably happened to you more times than you think.
You're down to your last team, Manchester United have to beat
Birmingham City at home and then you are quids in. Then the
unthinkable happens and Birmingham scrape an undeserved draw.
A result like this happens every single weekend.
Furthermore as we've seen the bookmakers' margins on a fixed

odds bet will be around 10%. So if you have a ten team

accumulator you are paying this margin ten times over. Quite
simply the value you are getting is diminished with every team you
stick on the betting slip.
LAST GOAL SCORER
This is a natural follow on from the 'First Goal Scorer' market.

However whereas the 'First Goal Scorer' market has some merits
this latest bookie concoction is akin to the lottery.
When trying to pick the first goal scorer some semblance of a

strategy can be applied. It is natural to pick either one of the
strikers or an attacking midfielder.
Furthermore it always pays to pick a player from the favourites

playing at home as they will usually have the better of the early
exchanges.
However when considering the last goal scorer you are essentially
being asked to predict which team will be applying the most
pressure late in a match.
You could go with the favourites, as they will probably be in control

most of the match.
But on the other hand, what about the underdogs? They are most
likely to be behind and will surely be pushing for a late equaliser.
Unless they are more than one goal behind of course.
Choosing which player to pick is even more difficult. How do you

know which players will even be on the pitch at the end of the
match?
Strikers are more likely to score but are also more likely to have
been substituted. Do you pick a player that starts the match or do
you go for a super sub?
Avoid this market like the plague. The bookmakers often give good
odds in order to tempt punters to waste their money. Don't be one
of these mugs.

HALF TIME/FULL TIME
This is one to avoid for similar reasons to the scorer/win doubles.
Not just content with making you pick the final result at the end of
a match, the bookmakers invented this little gem in which you have
to guess the outcome at half time as well.
This is simply a way of increasing their margins. To show just how

big their margins are lets take a look at an example.
Manchester United v Portsmouth
The image below shows us what odds Ladbrokes are offering for the
Half Time/Full Time market at this match.
Now to do this we need to turn each set of odds into a percentage

chance of happening. Just like before to do this we simply convert
the fractional odds in decimal odds and then divide this figure into
100.
Half Time/Full Time Fractional Odds Decimal Odds % Chance

Man Utd/Man Utd 4/5 1.80 55.5555
Man Utd/Draw 18/1 19 5.2632
Man Utd/Portsmouth 50/1 51 1.9608
Draw/Man Utd 7/2 4.5 22.2222

Draw/Draw 11/2 6.5 15.3846
Draw/Portsmouth 18/1 19 5.2632
Portsmouth/Man Utd 28/1 29 3.4483
Portsmouth/Draw 14/1 15 6.6667
Portsmouth/Portsmouth 16/1 17 5.8824
Total 121.1469
As you can see Ladbrokes has included just over 21% profit margin
on this market. The higher the profit margin the harder it is for
punters to profit.
Most punters see some of the tasty odds on offer, often as high as
50/1 and think the odds are too good to be true.
And they are. The bookmaker knows exactly what he's doing and
don't get fooled into thinking otherwise.

4
The Market To Attack
So now that we've covered the markets to avoid it's time to reveal
which market is the most profitable. This market is the most
profitable for several reasons which I will go into later.
The market I am talking about is the Asian Handicaps.
ASIAN HANDICAP BETTING
As the name suggests this form of betting originated in Asia. It all

started when a group of high staking Asian backers requested a
draw no bet wager meaning that if the match finished in a draw
then all bets were void.
Due to the money on offer the bookmakers relented but the

demands got even more complicated, such as half my money back
if it's a draw, and a whole new method of betting was established.
At first this betting revolution was confined to Asia but eventually it

filtered down into bookmaking world wide.
As such it is becoming more mainstream, but still very few people

understand let alone take advantage of it.
To put it simply in the Asian Handicap market the team perceived to

be the less likely winner of a match is given a head start,
commonly termed as the handicap.
This handicap is expressed in goals or fractions of goals.
Lets explain this by the way of an example:
Imagine Liverpool are playing Tottenham at Anfield. Now Liverpool

would be strong favourites and so the Asian handicap may give
Tottenham a 1 goal head start.
This simply means that 1 goal is added onto their score at the end.

So if Liverpool only win by one goal then after the handicap of
one goal has been added to Tottenham's score the result is a draw.
In this instance all bets are void and the stakes are returned.
If the game was to end in a draw then after the handicap of one
goal has been added to Tottenham's score the result would be a
Tottenham win.
Lets look at all the possible scenarios:
If we had backed Liverpool:
Liverpool win by 2 or more goals Our bet is a

winner
Liverpool win by exactly 1 goal Our bet is void
and our stake is returned.
Liverpool draw or lose Our bet is a loser
If we had backed Tottenham:
Tottenham win or draw Our bet is a winner

Tottenham lose by exactly 1 goal Our bet is void
and our stake is returned
Tottenham lose by 2 or more goals Our bet is a
loser
This is just one simple example. The handicap can range from 0
goals up to 3 and goes up in increments of a quarter. I will now
explain all the possible handicaps and their impact on the match
scenarios.
THE HANDICAPS EXPLAINED
The handicap given to a team can range from 0 to 3 and go up in

increments of .
There are several different ways bookmakers use to indicate the

strength of the handicap. The classic way is to simply apply the
relevant handicap to each side in decimal format:
(+1.0) Manchester City v Arsenal (-1.0)
Note: Don't get confused and think in the above example that
Manchester City start on one goal AND Arsenal start on -1 goal.
The handicap is simply giving you two different view points. You
can either take the view that Manchester City start on 1 goal and
Arsenal on 0 OR you can take the view that Manchester City start
on 0 goals and Arsenal start on -1.
The full ball handicaps are the easiest to understand so lets start
with them. Simply put, a club will be given either a 0,1,2 or 3 goal
head start.
In this scenario at the end of the game after the handicap has been
taken into account if the team you backed has won then you win
your bet.
If you team lost then you lose your bet. And finally if the game
ends up in a draw your bet is void and you get your money back.
Lets run through the full ball handicaps with examples.
Handicap Line 0 Ball
This essentially means there is no handicap. The bookmaker

considers both team equals and this is just like a regular fixed odds
bet except with the added bonus of getting your money back in the
event of a draw.

Example: (0) Arsenal v Man Utd (0)
Backing Man Utd
Man Utd wins the match All bets are winners

Man Utd draws the match All bets are void
Man Utd loses the match All bets are losers
Backing Arsenal
Arsenal wins the match All bets are winners

Arsenal draws the match All bets are void
Arsenal loses the match All bets are losers
Handicap line 1 ball
This handicap is used when one team is a favourite but the game is
expected to be close.
Team giving a one goal head start (-1):
Wins by two or more goals All bets on this selection are winners.
Wins by one goal All bets on this selection are void and refunded
to the backer.
Draws or loses All bets on this selection are losers.
Team receiving a one goal head start (+1):
Wins or draws All bets on this selection are winners

Loses by 1 goal All bets on this selection are void and refunded.
Loses by two or more goals All bets on this selection are losers.

Example: (-1) Aston Villa v Reading (+1)
Backing Aston Villa
Aston Villa win by two or more goals All bets are

winners
Aston Villa win by exactly 1 goal All bets are void.
Aston Villa Draw or lose the match All bets are
losers
Backing Reading
Reading win or draw the match All bets are

winners
Reading lose by exactly 1 goal All bets are void.
Reading lose by two or more goals All bets are
losers
With the 2 ball handicap we are now dealing with a heavy odds on
favourite.
Team giving a two goal head start (-2):
Wins by three or more goals All bets on this selection are

winners.
Wins by exactly two goals All bets on this selection are void and
refunded to the backer.
Wins by one, draws or loses All bets on this selection are losers.
Team receiving a two goal head start (+2):
Loses by exactly one goal, draws or wins All bets on this selection
are winners
Loses by exactly 2 goals All bets on this selection are void and
refunded.
Loses by three or more goals All bets on this selection are losers.

Example: (+2) Tottenham v Derby (-2)
Backing Tottenham
Tottenham win by three or more goals All bets are

winners
Tottenham win by exactly two goals All bets are
void.
Tottenham win by one goal, draw or lose the match
All bets are losers
Backing Derby
Derby lose by one goal, draw or win the match All

bets are winners
Derby lose by exactly two goals All bets are void.
Derby lose by three or more goals All bets are
losers
This is normally the biggest handicap you will see at a bookmakers

and is only reserved for cup games when a premiership team plays
a team from the lower divisions.
Team giving a three goal head start (-3):
Wins by four or more goals All bets on this selection are winners.
Wins by exactly three goals All bets on this selection are void and
refunded to the backer.
Wins by either 2 goals or one goal, draws or loses All bets on this
selection are losers.
Team receiving a three goal head start (+3):
Loses by either two goals or one goal, draws or wins All bets on
this selection are winners
Loses by exactly three goals All bets on this selection are void
and refunded.

Loses by four or more goals All bets on this selection are losers.
Example (-3) Liverpool v Enfield (+3)
Backing Liverpool
Liverpool win by four or more goals All bets are

winners
Liverpool win by exactly three goals All bets are
void.
Liverpool win by two goals or one goal, draw or lose
the match All bets are losers
Backing Enfield
Enfield lose by two goals or one goal, draw or win

the match All bets are winners
Enfield lose by exactly three goals All bets are
void.
Enfield lose by four or more goals All bets are
losers
The second type of handicaps involve halves e.g. 0.5, 1.5, 2.5.
With a half ball line there is no chance of getting your stake back
like there was with the full ball lines.
Just like a regular fixed odds bet you either win your bet or you
lose your bet. However with the Asian handicaps you have a better
scope of options.
Once again to help you understand this fully lets go through some
example of the half ball lines.
Handicap line ball
The favourite is getting a bit stronger now and is given ball

handicap.

Team giving a ball start (-0.5):
Wins by any score All bets on this selection are winners.

Draws All bets on this selection are losers.
Loses by any score All bets on this selection are losers
Team receiving a ball start (-0.5):
Wins by any score All bets on this selection are winners.

Draws All bets on this selection are winners.
Loses by any score All bets on this selection are losers.
Example (-0.5) Tottenham v Blackburn (+0.5)
Backing Tottenham
Tottenham win by any score All bets on this

selection are winners.
Draw All bets on this selection are losers.
Tottenham lose by any score All bets on this
selection are losers
Backing Blackburn
Blackburn win by any score All bets on this

selection are winners.
Draw All bets on this selection are winners.
Blackburn lose by any score All bets on this
Team giving a 1 goal head start (-1.5):
Wins by exactly one goal, draws or loses the match All bets on
this selection are losers.
Team receiving a 1 goal head start (+1.5):

Loses by exactly one goal, draws or wins the match - All bets on
this selection are winners.
Example (-1.5) Arsenal v Everton (+1.5)
Backing Arsenal
Arsenal win by two or more goals All bets are

winners.
Arsenal win by exactly one goal, draw or lose the
match All bets are losers.
Backing Everton
Everton lose by exactly one goal, draw or win the

match All bets are winners.
Everton lose by 2 or more goals All bets are
losers.

winners.
Wins by either two goals or one goal, draws or loses the match All
bets on this selection are losers.
Loses by either two goals or one goal, draws or loses the match
All bets on this selection are winners.

Example (-2.5) Liverpool v Luton (+2.5)
Backing Liverpool
Liverpool win by three or more goals All bets are

winners.
Arsenal win by either two goals or one goal, draw or
lose the match All bets are losers.
Backing Luton
Luton lose by either two goals or one goal, draw or

win the match All bets are winners.
Luton lose by three or more goals All bets are
losers.
The final type of handicap the bookmakers use are the quarter and
three-quarter balls e.g. 0.25, 0.75, 1.25, 1.75, 2.25 and 2.75.
This bet is slightly more complicated and involves your stake being
split into 2 and placed on the nearest full and half ball handicap.
For example if the handicap you placed a bet on was 0.25 then half
your stake would be placed on the 0 ball line and the other half is
placed on the 0.5 ball line.
As such the bookmakers use a slightly different way of expressing

this line. For example a 0.25 handicap is expressed as the
following:
(0 & +0.5) Sunderland v Everton (0 & -0.5)
The easiest way to explain is by going through some examples.
Handicap line - ball
Wins All bets are deemed winners

Draws half the stake is considered void and is refunded on this

selection. The other half of the stake is classed as a loser.
Loses All bets are settled as losers.
Team receiving ball start (+0.25):
Wins All bets are deemed winners

Draws half the stake is classified as a winner. The other half is
considered void and is refunded to the backer.
Loses All bets are settled as losers.
Example: (0 & -0.25) Newcastle v Man City (0 &

+0.25)
Backing Newcastle
Newcastle win the match All bets on this selection

are deemed winners.
Newcastle draw the match Half the stakes are
refunded on this selection. The other half of the
stake is classed as a loser.
Newcastle lose the match All bets on this
selection are settled as losers.
Backing City
Man City win the match All bets on this selection

are deemed winners.
Man City draw the match Half the stake is classed
as a winner. The other half of the stake is void and
is refunded
Man City lose the match All bets on this selection
are settled as losers.
Handicap line ball
Wins by exactly one goal Half the stake is deemed as a winner.
The other half is considered void and is refunded to the backer.

Draws or loses by any score All bets on this selection are losers.
Team receiving a ball start (+0.75):
Draws or wins by any score All bets on this selection are winners.
Loses by exactly one half the stake is refunded to the backer. The
other half is deemed a loser.
Loses by two or more - All bets on this selection are losers.
Example (-0.5 & -1.0) Liverpool v Tottenham

(+0.5 & +1.0)
Backing Liverpool
Liverpool win the match by two or more goals All

bets are winners.
Liverpool win the match by one goal half the
stake is settled at the price of the chosen selection.
The other half is voided.
Liverpool draw or lose the match All bets are
losers.
Backing Tottenham
Tottenham draw or win the match All bets are

winners.
Tottenham lose the match by one goal half the
stake is voided, the other half is classed as a loser.
Tottenham lose the match by two or more goals
All bets are losers.
Handicap Line 1 ball
Wins by exactly one goal Half the stake is settled as a winner. The
other half is classed as a loser.
Draws or loses by any score All bets on this selection are losers.

Wins or draws All bets on this selection are winners.

Loses by exactly one goal Half the stake is settled as a winner.
The other half is void and is refunded.
Example (-1.0 & -1.5) Man Utd v Aston Villa

(+1.0 & +1.5)
Backing Man Utd
Man Utd win by two or more goals All bets are

winners.
Man Utd win by one goal Half the stake is void.
The other half is classed as a loser.
Man Utd draw or lose the match All bets are
losers.
Backing Aston Villa
Aston Villa win or draw the match All bets are

winners.
Aston Villa lose by exactly one goal. Half the stake
is void. The other half is classed as a winner.
Aston Villa lose by 2 or more goals All bets are
losers.

winners.
Wins by exactly two goals Half the stake is settled as a winner.
The other half is void.
Wins by one, draws or loses by any score All bets on this

Wins or draws All bets on this selection are winners.
Loses by exactly one goal Half the stake is settled as a winner.
Example (-1.5 & 2.0) Man Utd v Wigan (+1.5 &

2.0)
Backing Man Utd
Man Utd win by three or more goals All bets are

winners.
Man Utd win by exactly two goals Half the stake is
void. The other half is classed as a winner.
Man Utd win by one, draw or lose the match All
bets are losers.
Backing Wigan
Wigan lose by one goal, draw or win the match All

bets are winners.
Wigan lose by exactly two goals. Half the stake is
void. The other half is classed as a loser.
Wigan lose by 3 or more goals All bets are losers.
Handicap Line 2 ball

winners.
Wins by exactly two goals Half the stake is voided. The other half
is classed as a loser.
Wins by exactly one goal, draws or loses by any score All bets on
this selection are losers.
Loses by exactly one goal, draws or wins All bets on this selection

are winners.
Loses by exactly two goals Half the stake is settled as a winner.
Example (-2.0 & -2.5) Man Utd v Derby (+2.0 &

+2.5)
Backing Man Utd
Man Utd win by three or more goals All bets are

winners.
Man Utd win by exactly two goals goal Half the
stake is void. The other half is classed as a loser.
Man Utd win by exactly 1 goal, draw or lose the
match All bets are losers.
Backing Derby
Derby lose by exactly one goal, draw or win the

match All bets are winners.
Derby lose by exactly two goals. Half the stake is
void. The other half is classed as a winner.
Derby lose by three or more goals All bets are
losers.
Wins by four or more goals All bets on this selection are winners.
Wins by exactly three goals Half the stake is settled as a winner.
The other half is void.
Wins by either two goals or one goal, draws or loses by any score
All bets on this selection are losers.
Loses by either two goals or one goal, draws or wins by any score

All bets on this selection are winners.
Loses by exactly three goals Half the stake is voided. The other
half is classed as a loser.
Loses by four or more goals All bets on this selection are losers.
Example (-2.5 & 3.0) Man Utd v Stockport (+2.5

& 3.0)
Backing Man Utd
Man Utd win by four or more goals All bets are

winners.
Man Utd win by exactly three goals Half the stake
is void. The other half is classed as a winner.
Man Utd win by two goals or one goal, draw or lose
the match All bets are losers.
Backing Stockport
Stockport lose by two goals or one goal, draw or

win the match All bets are winners.
Stockport lose by exactly three goals. Half the stake
is void. The other half is classed as a loser.
Stockport lose by four or more goals All bets are
losers.
This all may seem quite complicated at first and you certainly won't
be able to remember all the different combinations.
So to help you out I have put together a quick reference guide on

the following page which covers the most popular lines.
I suggest you print out this page and have it next to you when you
are going through the days football games as you will be able to
see at a glance what each scenario means for each team.

Backing The Favourite Backing The Underdog
Your bet Your bet
Hcap Your team's result Hcap Your team's result
result result
Win Win Win Win
0 Draw Void 0 Draw Void
Lose Lose Lose Lose
Win Win Win Win
-0.25 Draw Lose Half +0.25 Draw Win Half
Lose Lose Lose Lose
Win Win Win Win
-0.5 Draw Lose +0.5 Draw Win
Lose Lose Lose Lose
Win by 2 or more Win Draw or Win Win
-0.75 Win by 1 Win Half +0.75 Lose by 1 Lose Half
Draw or Lose Lose Lose by 2 Lose
Win by 2 or more Win Win or Draw Win
-1.0 Win by 1 Void +1.0 Lose by 1 Void
Draw or Lose Lose Lose by 2 or more Lose
-1.25 Win by 1 Lose Half +1.25 Lose by 1 Win Half
-1.5 Win by 1 Lose +1.5 Lose by 1 Win
Win by 2 Win Win or Draw Win
Draw or Lose Lose Lose by 2 Lose
Win by 3 or more Win Win, Draw or Lose by 1 Win
Win by 1, Draw or Lose Lose Lose by 3 or more Lose
-2.25 Win by 2 Lose Half +2.25 Lose by 2 Win Half
Win by 1, Draw or Lose Lose Lose by 3 or more Lose
-2.5 Win by 2 Lose +2.5 Lose by 2 Win
Win by 1, Draw or Lose Lose Lose by 3 Lose

THE ADVANTAGES OF ASIAN HANDICAP BETTING
The secret to earning consistent profits from betting is to get the

best value for your money. And this is exactly what the Asian
handicaps provide.
In conventional 90 minute betting there are three possible

outcomes: home win, away win or the draw. This means there are
always 2 possible results against you, unless you resort to dutching
(backing more than one selection).
However with Asian handicap bets there are only really two possible
results, either the team with the handicap wins or the team
against the handicap wins.
With Asian handicap betting the draw is either part of the result or
at worst stands as a void, all or part of stakes, outcome.
This essentially means there is only one result that can beat you.
So instead of 30% chance of winning with regular bets you now
have a 50% chance of winning.
The second very significant benefit of Asian betting is the very

small profit margin bookmakers build into these handicaps.
As we've seen the regular fixed odds outcome bets include a profit
margin of just over 10%
However the margins in the Asian handicaps are usually around just
4%. As we know the lower the bookmaker's margins the more
chance punters have of making a profit.
Lets use an example to illustrate how odds favour a punter betting

on the Asian handicaps.
We are going to compare making a bet on the Asian lines and

making a regular bet on the fixed odds market.
The example below is a game between Manchester City and West

Ham.

The fixed odds prices are below:
As you can see Manchester City are the odds on favourite due to
them being at home and having a very good home record.
Now lets look at the Asian handicap market:
As you can see its a (0.25) ball handicap line.
Now lets say we were to back Manchester City on the Asian

handicap. The ball line means that to win the bet Manchester
simply have to win the game.
If the game is a draw half our stake would be refunded and the
other half would be classed as a loser. If Manchester City lose the
game then we lose all of our bet.
So lets look at the potential results based on a 100 stake.
If Manchester City win; we win 100 multiplied by 1.76 = 176.

Which if we take off the 100 stake is a final profit of 76.
If the match is a draw then we only lose half our stake so we lose
50
If Manchester City lose we lose all of our stake so we lose 100
Now lets compare the above scenario with the fixed odds market.
The first stake we need to work out is the amount we stake on the
draw. If we had our 100 bet on the Asian handicap we would end

up with 50 back if the match was drawn, so we need to reproduce
that situation.
The draw odds for this match were 3.2, so we need to calculate
how much to bet at this price to return 50.
Divide the desired return, which in this case is 50, by the decimal
odd of the draw price, and you have your stake:
50 divided by 3.2 equals 15.63
So after calculating a stake of 15.63 on the draw, we now need to

work out our win stake. To do this we simply deduct the stake for
the draw from our total stake, 100.
This results in a calculation of 100 - 15.63, which gives us a win

stake of 84.37 on Manchester City at the price of 1.76.
So if Manchester City win we would win 84.37 multiplied by 1.76

= 160.30. Which if we take off our stake is a final profit of 60.30
If the match is a draw we get back 50 (3.2 multiplied by 15.63)
If West Ham wins we lose 100
So keeping the scenarios constant we would win 76 profit on the

Asian handicap and only 60.30 on the fixed odds market. That's
an extra 15.70.
Now lets see what would happen if we were to back West Ham.
The terms are slightly different now as we are backing the team
with the goal head start. This means if the match is drawn then
half the stake is settled at the price of the chosen selection, and the
other half is refunded to the backer.
So lets look at the potential results based on a 100 stake on the

Asian handicap.
If West Ham win we win 100 multiplied by 2.08 = 208. Which if

we take off the 100 stake is a final profit of 108.

If the match is a draw half our stake (50) is refunded and the
other half is settled at the odds given (50 x 2.08 = 104).
This means we get back 154. Take off our 100 stake and we are
left with 54 profit.
If Manchester City win we lose all of our 100 stake.
Now lets compare the above scenario with the fixed odds market.
The first thing to work out is the profit made from the draw. This
isn't too hard to calculate, simply halve your win stake and multiply
this by the Asian odds.
Half of 100 is 50 which when multiplied by the Asian handicap

odds of 2.08 returns a profit of 54.
So our bet on the draw has to show a return of 154, which at odds
of 3.2 requires a stake of 48.13 (154 divided by 3.2).
So now lets work out how much we have left to stake on the West
Ham win. Our total stake is 100 so we simply subtract 48.13
from 100 which leaves us with 51.87.
So with the fixed odds betting if West Ham win we will win 51.87
multiplied by 3.5 which is 181.55. Take off our 100 stake and we
are left with a profit of 81.55
A drawn match gives us a profit of 54
A Manchester city win results in a 100 loss.
So keeping the scenarios constant we would win 108 profit on the

Asian handicap and only 81.55 on the fixed odds market. That's
an extra 26.45.
This simple real life example shows the value to be had in betting
on the Asian handicaps rather than on the fixed odds market.
This extra profit soon adds up over the course of a football season

and can be the difference between making an overall profit or
making a loss.
HOW TO WIN ON THE ASIAN HANDICAPS
Even though the Asian Handicaps represent the best value for
football punters we must remember that we are still placing bets.
The bookmaker's margins may be extremely low at 4% but this still

means we can only expect to win back 96 on every 100 staked.
We have to develop a set of tactics for deciding when to attack the

Asian lines. These strategies are going to be completely different to
regular fixed odds bets.
With conventional 90 minute fixed odds bets most punters will

simply rely on the subjective approach, team A is better than team
B so I'll back team A.
This kind of thinking will not get you very far with the Asian
handicaps. It is OK to oppose a better team if the handicap is too
big for them.
A great example of this came during Arsenal's unbeaten 2003/4

season. During this season Arsenal won nearly 70% of all their
games and the pundits were continually talking up Arsenal, even
discussing whether they were better than Brazil.
This simply meant that more and more money was being placed on
Arsenal to win as it was seen as easy money.
This in turn had the effect of lower the odds on almost every game
which meant the bookies also increased the handicap against them
as well.
The result? Arsenal only overcome just over 50% of the handicaps.
A shrewd punter armed with the right data would have made rich
pickings that season betting against Arsenal.
However that is not to say we dismiss the subjective approach

completely. After all any bet is still an opinion by the backer
contrary to the opinion of the bookmaker.
To arrive at this opinion we need to take an objective approach to

the match.
The objective approach involves studying the hard facts of a team's

performances. Statistics are fundamental to gaining an edge over
your fellow punter and the bookie.
However it's the way you use the available stats that really
separate you from the crowd. There is no mechanical method for
picking winning bets when it comes to football.
To ultimately successful you need to combine both of the

approaches.
Sometimes you will be looking at the data for an upcoming game

and you will notice a pattern in the statistics that looks like it could
lead to a profitable bet.
However you can't simply reply on this cold analysis, you have to
decide if there is a reason for this pattern and if so, if it's likely to
continue. Only with this combination will you succeed.
Similarly you may be looking at the upcoming games and come up

with a hunch for one team or another. Now to rely on this hunch
alone will simply put you among the other hopeless punters.
You have to check the statistics to see if they back up your first
thoughts. If they do, great you have found a value bet, but if not
it's best to leave that opportunity alone.
Now you don't need to completely immerse yourself in the study of

statistics. You simply need to keep a record of each teams'
performances with the Asian Handicaps in mind.
As such each team should have it's own spreadsheet and it should
contain the following information:
The number goals the team scored in the match

The number goals the team conceded in the match
The goal difference for the match
The handicap given to the team
The result of backing the team in this match (on the Asian
Handicaps)
A list of key players missing for our team (now this doesn't
have to be a list of every player missing. It just has to contain
key players that would have had an effect on the outcome of
the match)
This might sound like a lot of effort but it will take less than 5
minutes to collate all this information for each round of premiership
matches.
All the relevant Asian Handicap data can be found at

http://www.soccerstat.net/
To check which players were missing for each team simply head
over to the Sky Sports website (http://www.skysports.com) and
look at the match reports.
Armed with this information you will have an accurate idea of a

team's defensive and attacking abilities at home and away and their
past record on the Asian lines.
Lets look at an example spreadsheet for Manchester City and see

what we can observe.
The following is a spreadsheet for the first ten games of the 2007/8
season:
Match For Against Diff Hcap Hcap result Key

players
missing
Man City vs Birmingham 1 0 +1 -0.75 WIN 1/2
3 1 +2 -0.75 WIN
Man City vs Middlesbrough
Man City vs Newcastle 3 1 +2 -0.25 WIN

Fulham vs Man City 3 3 0 0 DRAW
Man City vs Aston Villa 1 0 +1 0 WIN Dunne
Blackburn vs Man City 0 1 -1 +0.25 LOSS
Arsenal vs Man City 0 1 -1 +1.0 DRAW
Man City vs Man.Utd 1 0 +1 +0.5 WIN
Man City vs Derby 1 0 +1 -0.75 WIN 1/2
West Ham vs Man City 2 0 +1 +0.25 WIN
As we can see Manchester City started the season off very strongly
and here's a brief synopsis of their performances as it relates to the
handicap:
Manchester City failed to cover the handicap in just one of

their first 10 games.
Manchester City have an unbeaten home record against the
Asian lines during that period.
Manchester City never lost by more than one goal in the 10
match period.
Manchester City only conceded more than one goal on one
occasion.
The statistics show that Manchester City play tight football,

especially away from home. This shouldn't surprise us due to their
4-5-1 formation.
Manchester City are ones to back against the handicap and in that
period they produced an excellent return on investment of 66.67%.
Now that you know exactly what the Asian Handicaps are and the
relevant statistics to keep I will move on to the important task of
picking Asian Handicap winners.
As I said before there is no mechanical method for picking winners

but there are certain strategies to follow that will reap rewards over
the course of a season. In the next section I will take you through
these strategies step by step with examples and I will breakdown
the logic behind each choice.

5
Profitable Asian Handicap
Strategies
In this section I am going to outline 4 strategies that are very

profitable when it comes to winning money on the Asian handicaps.
These are strategies that I use myself on a regular basis.
In time once you get used to this type of betting you will no doubt
come up with your own but for now these are a good starting point.
STRATEGY 1 FOLLOW THE FORM (WITH A DIFFERENCE)
If there's one thing pundits love to talk about it's form. Whether it's
a specific player in or out of form or a whole team, this one aspect
will always come up in the analysis of a match.
However as we are not concerned with regular 90 minute bets you

can disregard almost every thing they say. We need to take into
account a team's form against the handicap.
Let's use an example where pure research and statistical

information pinpoints a good value bet.
Here's the statistical information on a Premiership game between

West Ham and Liverpool on 31st January 2008.
West Ham went into the game with the following 6-match form:
For Against Diff Beat

Hcap?
Man City 1 West Ham 1 1 1 0 Y
West Ham 2 Fulham 1 2 1 +1 Y 1/2
Arsenal 2 West Ham 0 0 2 -2 N

West Ham 2 Man Utd 1 2 1 +1 Y
West Ham 1 Reading 1 1 1 0 N
Middlesbrough 1 West Ham 2 2 1 +1 Y
Liverpool went into the game with the following 6-match form:
For Against Diff Beat

Hcap?
Liverpool 2 Aston Villa 2 2 2 0 N
Middlesbrough 1 Liverpool 1 1 1 0 N
Liverpool 1 Wigan 1 1 1 0 N
Man City 0 Liverpool 0 0 0 0 N
Derby 1 Liverpool 2 1 2 +1 N
Liverpool 4 Portsmouth 1 4 1 +3 Y
Ladbrokes priced the match as follows:
West Ham (+0.5) 1.90

Liverpool (-0.5) 1.96
WEST HAM
Form Analysis
West Ham's form over the last 6 matches has been very good. They
have only been beaten once in the last 6 games and that was away
to Arsenal.
In fact they are unbeaten at home in the last three games including
a win against Manchester United so they certainly capable of
beating teams at the top of the table at home.
Handicap Analysis
West Ham only failed to cover the handicap twice in this 6-match
period and one of those was away at Arsenal which doesn't reflect
too badly on them.

As West Ham have been given a +0.5 handicap it means they only
have to draw to beat the handicap.
Conclusion
West Ham are certainly a side in form at the moment. Both in

terms of actual results and handicap status.
Lets look back at West Ham's Asian handicap profit-loss account

over these 6 games. Assuming you had staked 100 on West Ham
in every game, here's how you would have fared:
2 losing bets = 200 loss

1 winning bet at 1.85 = 185 return
1 winning bet at 1.925 = 192.5 return
1 half winning bet at 2.075 = 153.75 return
Total 533.75
LIVERPOOL
Form Analysis
At first glance Liverpool's form look pretty good. In fact they are
unbeaten over the 6-match period. However looking a little deeper
we can see that four of their results are draws and one of their wins
came against the Premiership basement boys Derby.
Handicap Analysis
Now from looking at Liverpool's record against the Asian handicap

we can see that Liverpool are in poor form.
In fact they have only overcome the handicap once in the last 6
matches.
Conclusion
Liverpool look an awful side to back right now on the Asian

Handicaps.
Lets look back at Liverpool's Asian handicap profit-loss account over

these 6 games. Assuming you had staked 100 on Liverpool in
every game, here's how you would have fared:
5 losing bets = 500 loss

Total -307.5
Having looked at both of the team's results in detail we can see

that West Ham are the better side to back in this game on the
Asian handicap.
Result - West Ham 1 Liverpool 0
STRATEGY 2 M.I.A. (MISSING IN ATTACK)
This strategy is aimed at milking profits from clubs who have their
key goal scorer out of the team.
Some teams spread the goals around the team pretty evenly but
others rely on just a couple of big goal scorers.
Classic examples of this in the past were Thierry Henry at Arsenal,

Alan Shearer at Newcastle and Ruud Van Nistelrooy at Man Utd.
When these players are missing for their clubs the void is often too
big to fill and the teams struggle to find the back of the net.
This strategy aims to sniff out the clubs lacking in striking power
and going for the kill.
Now this strategy works best when the team 'Missing In Attack' are
the match favourites (preferably odds on) and are playing at home.
You'll be surprised how little a team missing their star striker affects
the odds.

You see, even without their star striker the bookmaker's feel the
team has enough to overcome their opponents especially with
home advantage. This results in very low odds for the favourite.
And due to the low odds on offer for this team to win, the
bookmakers automatically place a large handicap on the opposition
without taking into account their ability to score goals.
A great example of a team toothless without their star striker is

Chelsea.
Chelsea are known for playing a classic 433/451 formation with just
one striker. And Drogba, being the striker, is key to this system
working and scores the majority of their goals. In the Premier
League campaign of 2006/7 he scored nearly 33% of all Chelsea's
goals.
So when he is missing it can greatly effect their scoring capabilities.
Lets have a look at Chelsea's home matches so last season

(2007/8) without Drogba.
Date Home Score Away Score Chelsea

Result
12-08-07 Chelsea 3 Birmingham 2 WIN
16-09-07 Chelsea 0 Blackburn 0 DRAW
08-12-07 Chelsea 2 Sunderland 0 WIN
26-12-07 Chelsea 4 Aston villa 4 DRAW
29-12-07 Chelsea 2 Newcastle 1 WIN
12-01-08 Chelsea 2 Tottenham 0 WIN
31-01-08 Chelsea 1 Reading 0 WIN
11-02-08 Chelsea 0 Liverpool 0 DRAW
From a fixed odds view nothing really looks out of place. Chelsea
are unbeaten at home so far winning 5 and drawing 3 of their
games.

However if we look at the results from an Asian Handicap point of
view things start to become interesting:
Date Home Score Away Score Chelsea

Handicap
Result
12-08-07 Chelsea 3 Birmingham 2 LOST
16-09-07 Chelsea 0 Blackburn 0 LOST
08-12-07 Chelsea 2 Sunderland 0 WIN 1/2
26-12-07 Chelsea 4 Aston villa 4 LOST
29-12-07 Chelsea 2 Newcastle 1 LOST
12-01-08 Chelsea 2 Tottenham 0 WIN
31-01-08 Chelsea 1 Reading 0 LOST
11-02-08 Chelsea 0 Liverpool 0 LOST
Now we see that Chelsea failed to beat the handicap on 6 occasions

out of eight. And the trend isn't stopping either.
The bookies continue to overlook the effect Drogba has on the

ability of Chelsea to score goals and an informed punter can bags
plenty of profit over the course of the season.
This strategy is simple to follow. Simply head over to the Sky

Sports website (http://www.skysports.com) and look at each
teams' scoring records. From this you'll be able to see which teams
rely on just a couple of scorers.
Then simply scan down the relevant teams' spreadsheet to see if

this goal scorer missing has any effect on the Asian handicap
results.
Once you find a team that struggles without its main goal scorer
then it's worth noting down and opposing that team next time he is
out injured.

STRATEGY 3 THE DERBY EFFECT
Derbies offer great opportunities when regarding Asian handicaps.
Derby matches are often tight affairs as neither side wants to give
too much away. The passion and atmosphere of the local rivalry can
level the playing field somewhat and even an unfavored team has a
great chance of getting a result.
Commentators and pundits always say that form goes out the
window for derby matches but this is simply mindless chitchat and
we are more concerned with hard evidence.
We have to ask ourselves whether the derby factor is real or

perceived and to what extent does it actually influence the results.
Don't forget we are not simply concerned with who wins the match
outright we need to look at how each team does against the
handicap.
For example more often than not Arsenal will beat Spurs when
Arsenal at home. But that doesn't mean we can't back Spurs if the
handicap is too big for Arsenal to overcome.
When the favourites are playing at home the handicap will often be
quite high. We have to decide if the handicap is too high. The away
team will often set themselves up very defensively to give
themselves the best chance.
When the lesser fancied team is at home they are often still given a
handicap head start which makes it very difficult for the away side
to beat the handicap.
Home advantage for the under dogs really counts extra in derby
matches.
The best way to take you through what to look out for is by the way
of an example. Consider the Manchester derby during the 2007/8
Premier League season.
Manchester United V Manchester City 10th Feb 2008

Now if you were a fixed odds punter this looks an easy one to call.
Anything other than a home win looks unlikely.
The bookmakers seem to have agreed as well and Manchester City

were regarded as 7/1 outsiders to win this game.
The one sided nature of this match filtered into the Asian handicap
markets as well and the match was set up as follows:
(-1.5) Manchester United v Manchester City (+1.5)
As we can see Manchester United have been given a 1.5 handicap

to overcome. This means they have to win by more than 2 goals in
order to beat the handicap.
So we need to look further into the statistics to see if this handicap

is too high for United to overcome.
The last 6 premier league fixtures between these two sides at Old
Trafford are as follows:
Date Home Away G/D

09/12/06 Manchester Utd 3 Manchester City 1 +2
10/09/05 Manchester Utd 1 Manchester City 1 0
13/12/03 Manchester Utd 3 Manchester City 1 +2
G/D = Goal Difference
As you can see United are unbeaten but the interesting thing to
note is that they have only won by two goals or more on two
occasions out of the last 6.
This confirms our theory that derbies are tight affairs even when
one team outclasses the other.

Now lets take a closer look at United's recent home form.
For Against Diff Hcap
Manchester Utd v Portsmouth 2 0 +2 Y

Manchester Utd v Newcastle 6 0 +6 Y
Manchester Utd v Birmingham 1 0 +1 N
Manchester Utd v Everton 2 1 +1 N
Manchester Utd v Derby 4 1 +3 Y
Manchester Utd v Fulham 2 0 +2 V
At a quick glance we can see that they have won all of their last 6
home matches but this does not mean we cannot oppose them.
Looking more closely we can see they have only completely beaten
the handicap on two occasions with one time being a half win.
This shows me that the handicapper over rates United at home and
often gives the away side too much of a head start. It's shows us
that United aren't infallible and it is worth opposing them given the
right opportunity.
Now lets check out City's recent away record to see if they correlate
our thoughts.

Derby v Manchester City 1 1 0 N
Everton v Manchester City 0 1 -1 N
Newcastle v Manchester City 2 0 +2 Y
Aston Villa v Manchester City 1 1 0 Y
Tottenham v Manchester City 1 2 -1 N
Wigan v Manchester City 1 1 0 V
Impressively their goal difference over this period is 0. City keep it

very tight away from home and in their last 6 away games they

have not been beaten by more than 1 goal.
City generally shape up with a 4-5-1 formation and play on the

counter attack which makes it difficult for teams to break them
down.
When playing at Old Trafford they are likely to be very defensive
and once again this seems to back up our theory that it will be a
close game.
One last piece of information that we should consider is the

suspension of Wayne Rooney. I said earlier that when sides miss a
key attacking player they can find it very difficult to score.
Although Ronaldo is top goal scorer and gets all the plaudits at
United it is Wayne Rooney that seems to pull everything together.
So to really cement our judgment lets take a look at United's

results when Rooney hasn't played this season.

Portsmouth v Manchester Utd 1 1 0 N
Manchester City v Manchester Utd 0 1 -1 N
Manchester Utd v Tottenham 1 0 +1 V
Manchester Utd v Sunderland 1 0 +1 N
Everton v Manchester Utd 1 0 +1 N
Manchester Utd v Blackburn 2 0 +2 Y
Bolton v Manchester Utd 0 1 -1 N
West Ham v Manchester Utd 1 2 -1 N
Manchester Utd v Birmingham 1 0 +1 N
As you can see Manchester United only beat the handicap on 1

occasion when Rooney wasn't playing.
Lets look at all the evidence:
United rarely beat City by two goals

The Asian lines often give United too much of a handicap to
overcome

City play very defensive away from home and rarely lose by
more than one goal
Without Rooney United have only beaten the handicap once.
Taking everything into account I feel we can oppose Manchester

United and back Manchester City on this occasion.
This may seem a strange decision with City being 7/1 to win the
game.
But remember City just need to better losing by one goal to beat
the handicap. This type of match just shows how studying the
statistics in line with the Asian handicaps can pull a few surprises.
Result Man United 1 Man City 2
STRATEGY 4 THE EURO SKEPTIC
European games involving English teams will often throw up great

opportunities for a good value bets.
In these games the bookmakers have a hard task of trying to

compare two teams from different leagues and setting the right
handicap can prove difficult.
Our strategy here is to compare the handicap given to the foreign

team with the handicaps given to Premier League teams when
facing this English opposition.
Using this comparison we can find English equivalents of the

European team and then make a judgment as to whether this is
correct.
This may sound confusing so lets look at an example.
Uefa Cup 2007/8 Last 16
(-0.5 & -1.0) Tottenham v PSV Eindhoven (+0.5 & +1.0)

This is the first leg of a last 16 Uefa Cup match. The bookies have
made Tottenham strong favourites to win this game and have given
them a -0.75 handicap.
This means to beat the handicap outright Tottenham have to win by

2 goals or more.
If they win by just one goal then half the bet is a winner and the
other half is refunded. And if Tottenham draw or lose the match all
bets on Tottenham are losers.
To see if this is a fair handicap we look at Tottenham's past Premier

League home matches and the handicaps that were set:
(+0.5) Tottenham v Man Utd (-0.5)
(-1.0 & -1.5) Tottenham v Sunderland (+1.0 & +1.5)
( -1.0) Tottenham v Reading (+1.0)
(-1.0 & -1.5) Tottenham v Fulham (+1.0 & +1.5)
(-0.5) Tottenham v Man City (+0.5)
(-1.0 & -1.5) Tottenham v Birmingham (+1.0 & +1.5)
(-1.5 & -2.0) Tottenham v Wigan (+1.5 & +2.0)
(0 & -0.5) Tottenham v Blackburn (0 & +0.5)
(-0.5) Tottenham v Aston Villa (+0.5)
(0) Tottenham v Arsenal (0)
(-1.0) Tottenham v Derby (+1.0)
(-0.5) Tottenham v Everton (+0.5)

Straight away we can see than no opposition has been given a
+0.75 handicap against Tottenham so we have to look a little
further at the handicaps immediately above and below +0.75.
Aston Villa, Everton and Manchester City have all be given a +0.5
handicap, which is one handicap rating below the one given to PSV.
This essentially means the bookmaker rates these English teams as
slightly better than the Dutch team.
Derby and Reading have been given handicaps of +1.0 so they are
considered a little worse than PSV.
The bookmakers are essentially saying that if PSV were in the

premiership they would be somewhere in the table below Aston
Villa, Man City and Everton but above Reading and Derby.
So this would mean they would be mid to lower table.
To see if this is a fair judgment from the bookmakers we need to

take a look at how PSV are faring. Now we don't keep a record of
Asian handicaps for foreign leagues as this would be far too much
data to keep up with.
So to judge the strength of PSV we will simply look at their

domestic league position and their recent record in Europe.
The table below shows the top of the Dutch Eredivise at the time
PSV are playing Tottenham:
As we can see they are six points clear of their nearest rivals at the

top of the able.
Now although the Eredivise is not the strongest league in the world
it is still impressive feat to be six points clear of the likes of Ajax
and eleven points clear of Feyenord.
This evidence on it's own makes the +0.75 handicap they have
been given seem too high but lets take a look at PSV's recent
European record to see if this counters that claim.
2006/7 Champions League Quarter-Finalists

2005/6 Champions League Last 32
2004/5 Champions League Semi-Finalists
PSV are Champions League regulars and over the past three
seasons they have a 100% record of making it through the group
stages.
This is an excellent record and in the previous campaign they even

knocked Arsenal out on their way to the quarter finals. And in fact
in the 2004/5 season they made it all the way to the semi finals.
Lets look at the evidence:
The handicap compares PSV to a mid-lower table English team

PSV are 6 points clear at the top of the Eredivise
PSV have an excellent recent European pedigree
The above evidence will pose a very big problem for Spurs.
Spurs are not European regulars and in the previous seasons' Uefa
Cup they were knocked out by the first decent team they played,
Sevilla.
I think the evidence suggests this will be a very close game and I
think the +0.75 handicap given to PSV is very generous. The
statistics show that backing PSV on this occasion represents a value
bet.
Result Tottenham 0 PSV 1

6
Conclusion
Congratulations! You've reached the end of The Football Formula.
The information you have learnt is extremely powerful yet so easy
to use that you can get started with the processes and strategies
weve discussed right away.
A BETTER WAY TO BET
As you've seen the Asian handicap is the most profitable football

betting market. It's where you, the punter, get the best value for
your bets.
If you're new to the whole concept of Asian handicap betting you

will want to read through this book several times so that you fully
grasp the concepts within.
It can be a strange notion at first if all you're used to is simple fixed

odds betting. I highly recommend printing out the table on page
464545 and keeping it with you when you are perusing the days
football matches and odds.
It will allow you at a glance to see what position the bookmakers

are taking and whether you agree with it.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Remember, to be confident in your bets you are going to want to

combine a bit of statistical analysis with your own personal
thoughts.
Once you combine these two powerful tools together you will be
able find good value bets time and time again.
In this book there are four strategies that you will be able to follow
and will give you good profits during a season:
1. Follow The Form

2. Missing In Attack
3. The Derby Effect
4. The Euro Skeptic
In time once you get used to the Asian handicaps you will no doubt
come up with your own strategies that bring your profits.
In the end, if you follow the guidance and processes described here
your chances of making money are greatly increased!
Good luck
The Football Formula

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All rights reserved. It is illegal to copy, distribute, or create derivative works

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This whole package contains over 100 pages of expert profit

I have tried to cater for the reader who has absolutely no

This manual is the core guide in the package. In it I detail the

I have included one bonus on betting in-running on football. This

With a bit of practice you will be able to master the art of

The final guide in this system is based on football spread betting. It

I have endeavored to make this package as clear as possible so

BetterBet Publishing All Rights Reserved Page 3

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ODDS AND PERCENTAGES

Odds are simply the bookmakers opinion of how likely a certain

For example if Team A is priced at 2/1 then the bookie is implying

The traditional British way is to describe the odds as a fraction e.g

BetterBet Publishing All Rights Reserved Page 5

Below is an example of the odds on offer for a typical football

Conversely Arsenal are odds on favourites to win this match at 4/5.

Decimal odds used to be reserved for the European betting market

So odds of 5/1 become 6 (5 1 + 1 = 6)

and odds of 4/6 become 1.67 (4 6 + 1 = 1.67)

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As you can see the 3/1 odds have turned to 4.00 (3 1 + 1)

For example if we backed Arsenal with a 10 stake we can quickly

THE NOTION OF VALUE

The notion of value is widely underestimated in the world of

For example an evens shot has a 50% chance of winning. A 3/1

In theory when you add up the percentage chance of each outcome

BetterBet Publishing All Rights Reserved Page 7

However this isn't the case as the bookmakers like to add in an

Lets look at our example or Manchester City v Arsenal again.

The draw priced at 3.20 represents a 31.25% chance of occurring.

Now if we add up all of these percentages we get an overall figure

The extra 11.81% represents the bookmakers profit margin. This

BetterBet Publishing All Rights Reserved Page 8

Fractional Decimal % Fractional Decimal % Fractional Decimal %

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Football betting has always been extremely popular with punters

In fact the popularity of football betting has meant that it is now

The up-shot of this is the daunting number of options for betting on

The screen-shot below shows the depth of markets available for a

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In fact the popular bookmaker, Ladbrokes, gives its users a choice

There is no point in trying to take into account all the markets in

THE MARKETS TO AVOID

To further complicate things not all football betting markets are

The bookmakers are certainly taking a quantity not quality

In this section I am going to identify the markets which are the

These are one of the bookmakers' favourites. If you've ever walked

BetterBet Publishing All Rights Reserved Page 11

'Chelsea to beat West Ham and Drogba to score: A 20 stake wins

Essentially the bookmaker is asking you to place a bet on two

This is another one for the mugs. Accumulators simply involve

A result like this happens every single weekend.

Furthermore as we've seen the bookmakers' margins on a fixed

BetterBet Publishing All Rights Reserved Page 12

LAST GOAL SCORER

This is a natural follow on from the 'First Goal Scorer' market.

When trying to pick the first goal scorer some semblance of a

Furthermore it always pays to pick a player from the favourites

You could go with the favourites, as they will probably be in control