Proceedings of the 19th IAHR-APD Congress 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam

ISBN xxx-xxxx-xx-x

PREDICTION OF FORESTATION PROCESS IN THE ASAHI RIVER, JAPAN USING A VEGETATION

DYNAMICS MODEL

K. YOSHIDA(1), S. MAENO(1) , S. FUJITA(1) & S. MATSUYAMA(1)

(1) Okayama University, Okayama, JAPAN, ev422242@s.okayama-u.ac.jp

ABSTRACT
Forestation in rivers has recently been of concern in Japan. It generally reduces river flow capacity, damages lower
reaches with driftwood, and changes ecosystems. As one countermeasure against forestation, maintenance work is
carried out continuously in Japan, cutting down growth on sandbars in rivers. However, sandbars often become covered
with vegetation after several years. Therefore, it is necessary to elucidate vegetation dynamics in rivers to facilitate their
effective management. This paper describes a model of vegetation dynamics and its application to the Ohara area in the
lower Asahi River in Japan. We verified its reproducibility based on field observations. Then we predicted aspects of the
forestation process in the river for the decade beginning in 2013.
Results for validation calculations showed that our model can fundamentally reproduce vegetation conditions in this area.
The predicted results demonstrated that the vegetation established more thickly and that the vegetation height is expected
to become 12 m in the area in 2022. Vegetation less than 5 m tall will be washed out. Vegetation more than 10.5 m tall
exhibited little impact by floods of 3400 m3/s if no vegetation exists in the upper area of Ohara area.

Keywords: vegetation management, vegetation dynamics model, field observations, prediction of the vegetation condition

1. INTRODUCTION of restoration work that is often conducted for vegetated

The Asahi River, a first-grade river in Japan that is the
subject of our study, flows across Okayama prefecture
into the Seto Inland Sea (Figure 1). Its main channel
originally consisted of gravel bars, but dams (Asahi Dam,
1954; Yubara Dam, 1955) in upstream sections of this river
reduced flood discharge and lowered bed load transport
in the 1980s, thereby causing forestation and a decrease of
gravel bars. Forestation in this river has caused several
problems such as a decrease of endemic species
established on the gravel bars and a reduction of flow
capacity. Moreover, forestation in rivers has been reported
by river administrative bureaus in Japan since the 1990s.
In fact, forestation mechanisms have been investigated
extensively during the last decade (e.g., Tanaka, 2008;
Toda, 2013).
In the Asahi River, several gravel bars were selected as
experimental sites to investigate forestation formation
mechanisms in rivers and to estimate the sustained effects
rivers. Generally, engineering work to restore rivers
requires great cost and much time. Therefore, it is
necessary to clarify how the river bed becomes covered
with vegetation. We must ascertain workable solutions for
effective restoration.
To date, several ecologists have developed dynamics
models for vegetation establishment in areas outside of
river levees (e.g., Addi and Gonzalez, 1997). However,
few studies have examined the establishment of workable
numerical models of vegetation dynamics in rivers.
This paper describes a vegetation dynamics model and its
application to the Ohara area in the lower Asahi River in
Japan. We verified the reproducibility of this model in
comparison with aerial photographs taken in 2013 and
with results of field observations. Additionally, we
predicted the vegetation conditions in the river during
20132022. We also considered the vegetation dynamics
Ohara area
Main channel

Pt.20

Pt.19

Okayama Prefecture

17 km N
Okayama Prefecture
Asahi River
17.5 km
Target domain 200 m
50 km
:Water gauge installation point
FLOW
Figure 2. Target domain downstream of the Asahi River and
Figure 1. Location of the Asahi River in Japan. installation points of water level gauges.

1

Table 1.
Figure 3. Representative
Upstream viewfloods
of the during 20072013
Ohara area in 2013.
Maximum discharge Return period
Date (years)
(m3/s)
Jul. 15, 2007 721
Mar. 20, 2008 672
Jul. 20, 2009 787
Jul. 14, 2010 681
Sep. 3, 2011 3381
Jul. 7, 2012 2238
Sep., 2013 1885 **
* Discharge value less than 1220 m3/s were not considered for
management for high-water levels at the administrative bureau of the
lower Asahi River. ** preliminary figures (quick estimation)
by flood of 3400 m3/s in a case where vegetation
established in the upper area of the Ohara area is trimmed
because we want to elucidate differences of vegetation
dynamics in various vegetation conditions.
2. STUDY SITE
Figure 2 portrays the topography of the lower reaches of
the Asahi River. The target domain is a 2.0 km long,
approximately 300 m wide compound open channel. The
mean bed slope is about 1:670. In the figure, the kilometer
(km) number shows the longitudinal distance from the
river mouth. The Ohara area is located on the left side of
the main channel edge, 16.8 km downstream of the Asahi
River. Field observations were conducted at this area for
five years. Figure 3 shows vegetation conditions observed
at the Ohara area in July 2013. Restoration work intended
to lower the bed level was conducted for the gravel bar in
this area in 2004, with the expectation that the resulting
tractive force enhanced by the work would wash out the
vegetation community established in this bar. However,
the effects of the restoration work were not sustained.
Consequently, the gravel bar became partly covered with
vegetation of various kinds in 2013.
2.2 Observation and floods of 20072013
A hydraulic station operates at a section upstream of this
target domain. River discharge Q was estimated using a
stagedischarge (HQ) relation at Shimomaki Station at
the upstream section (Shimomaki, 19 km) of the lower
Asahi River. Water level gauges of absolute pressure type
were installed at two points in the target domain (Figure
2). These hydraulic data supported the flood flow
simulations necessary for a vegetation dynamics model.
Table 1 presents a record of a representative flood, which
had an annual maximum value of discharge in the lower
Asahi River during 20072013. The return period for each
discharge value was also added to the table. Large floods
(a) Selected in July 2008
N 100m Herbaceous Willow
Pilot channel O-1
O-2
O-3
O-4
O-5
FLOW O-6
O-7
O-8
Bridge pier O-9
FLOW
O-10
O-11
(b) Selected in October 2011 as additional samples
N 100m Herbaceous Willow
Pilot channel O-12
O-13
O-14
O-15
O-16
O-17
O-18
O-19
Bridge pier O-20
* FLOW
O-21
* O-22
Figure 4. Location of targeted vegetation in the Ohara area. (mark in
* the legend shows washing out of vegetation by flood flows in 2011.)
*
occurred both in September 2011 and in July 2012.
17.7
3. FIELD OBSERVATIONS
5.9
4.0 Field observations of vegetation growth, bed materials,
and bed deformation were conducted in the Ohara area
during July 2008 August 2013. Regarding vegetation
growth, as shown in Figures 4(a) and 4(b), vegetation of
several kinds was selected for long-term observation both
in July in 2008 and in October 2011. They were chosen as
dominant vegetation during times of the low water levels
in this area. Each location of the targeted vegetation was
identified precisely using specific marks. Willows (Salix
spp.) mainly appeared to be established along the waters
edge, whereas herbaceous plants such as Eragrostis
curvula, and Phragmites japonica were distributed sparsely
throughout the gravel bar. The willow height was
measured using a stadia rod. The wash-out and lodging
situation of the targeted vegetation was investigated after
flooding. Fundamentally, we have observed little bed
deformation on the gravel bar, although the waters edge
of this bar was largely scoured by large floods that
occurred during observations. Additionally, we collected
bed sediment samples using a plastic box with a constant
capacity: 50 cm long, 50 cm wide and 5 cm deep. Then we
assessed the particle size distribution based on a sieving
test. The grain size distribution was used for estimating
the critical Shields number in the sediment transport
model for non-uniform sand particles.
Figure 5 depicts a time series of height of the targeted
willows and representative flood events during the
observation period. The dotted lines show data of the
willows that had been trimmed manually. Some data
disappeared suddenly after September 2011 in the figure,
which means the corresponding vegetation had been
washed out by the flood flow. The growth rate is not
constant in time, depending on seasonal factors. Aside
from the willows that were trimmed, the willows grew at
about 0.8 m annually, based on our field observations
conducted before 1 September 2011. However, the
willows grew at about 0.5 m per year after flooding in
2011. Therefore, this finding was incorporated into the
numerical conditions of vegetation growth in the
vegetation dynamics model. Additionally, no vegetation
was washed out by floods in 2009, 2010, and 2012,
although the flood of September 2011 induced the wash-
2
 O-1 O-2 O-3 O-4 O-5 O-6 O-7 O-8 O-9 O-10 O-11
O-12 O-13 O-14 O-15 O-16 O-17 O-18 O-19 O-20 O-21 O-22

July, 2009 flood July, 2010 flood September, 2011 flood July, 2012 flood
5.00 Maximum Discharge 681m/s
(Maximum Discharge 787m/s Maximum Discharge 3381m/s Maximum Discharge 2238m/s
4.50
4.00
vegetation height (m)

3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2008/06/01 2008/12/18 2009/07/06 2010/01/22 2010/08/10 2011/02/26 2011/09/14 2012/04/01 2012/10/18 2013/05/06 2013/11/22
Observation date
Figure 5. Time series of height of the targeted willows during the observation period.
out of eight willows. Based on the observation results of Longitudinal section Cross section Plan view
the surviving three willows, one willow (O-2) was

Standing upright
inclined at an angle of 45. The roots of another willow d
(O-3) were exposed; it was probably felled. However, l d
another willow (O-11) remained upright, which indicates CD 1

that the existence of willows established upstream of the

willow (O-11) suppressed flood flows and prevented
willows from inclining or washing out. Similarly, the
herbaceous plants we selected were washed out from the 2d

Bending
CD 0.6
original locations, or were covered wholly with bed 1
d
materials during the flood in 2011, although these plants 2
l

survived during other floods.

4. VEGETATION DYNAMICS MODEL
4.1 Outline 4d
Lodging

CD 0.3 1
The numerical model developed here is based on a 4
l

simplified conceptual model that represents life of d

vegetation community establishing in rivers. The model
simply predicts two state quantities of vegetation Figure 6. Types of behavior of herbaceous plants in a flow.
condition on an annual basis: vegetation height and
vegetation density. The targeted vegetation in this model
is limited to three species: willow (Salix spp.), Eragrostis The sediment transport model considering both the bed
curvula, and Phragmites japonica. They are dominant load and suspended load was used for predicting the bed
species in the lower Asahi River. They are identifiable in deformation, coupled with the flood flow model.
the numerical simulation using these two quantities.
Continuity equation for sediment transport:
The model consists of two parts for consideration of the
physical environment of vegetation: a flood stage part and qbi qbi
a normal water stage part. The flood flow, the sediment zb i i
transport and the conditions for both washout and 1 p
t J J J [1]
lodging of vegetation are calculated in the former part,
whereas the establishment, growth, and expansion of
vegetation are simulated in the latter part. The former part (qsui / J w ficbi / J ) 0
is calculated using a conventional depth-averaged i
hydraulic model. The latter part includes some processes Bed load (Ashida and Michiue, 1972):
on vegetation life. They are described very simply by the
conceptual model with parameters that are determined 3/2 u*ci
partly by the observation results. qbi pi 17 *i 1 *ci
1 sgdi3 [2]
*i u*
4.2 Governing equations for flood flows
Suspended load (Itakura and Kishi, 1980):
A two-dimensional flood flow model using the curvilinear
coordinate system ( , ) was used to predict the flow gdi
s
velocity and tractive force on the sand bar. This hydraulic qsui pi K * i w fi [3]
s u*
model was developed originally by Nagata et al. (2000).
Subsequently, Maeno et al. (2005) improved it by
Therein, zb represents the bed level, p signifies the
introducing flow resistance attributable to vegetation
porosity of the bed, qbi , qbi are the contravariant
establishment in rivers during a flood. Regarding the
resistance of vegetation, shown in Figure 6, this model components of bed loads, w fi denotes the settling
incorporates plant flexibility and lodging by friction velocity (Rubby, 1933), cbi is the concentration of
velocity (Yoshida et al., 2013). suspended load, pi represents the proportion of the
particle i which has grain size di existing in the river
4.3 Governing equations for sedimentation
bed, *i stands for the non-dimensional tractive force,

3
 Table 2. Criteria for judgment of wash-out and lodging conditions of vegetation because of flood flows
Vegetation height (m)
Bed deformation (m)
02.0 2.05.0 5.010.0 10.0 and more
to -1.0 Wash-out Wash-out Wash-out Wash-out
-1.0 to -0.5 Wash-out Wash-out Wash-out No change
-0.5 to -0.1 Wash-out Wash-out No change No change
-0.1 to 0.1 Wash-out* No change No change No change
0.1 to 0.5 Wash-out Lodging No change No change
0.5 to 1.0 Wash-out Wash-out Lodging No change
1.0 to Wash-out Wash-out Lodging No change
* The condition is only valid for herbaceous plants within the period of less than two years after they established.

Table 3. Conditions for growth of vegetation height and vegetation density

Phragmites Eragrostis Willow (Salix spp.)
Items
japonica curvula l 5m 5 m l 10 m l 10 m
Increasing rate of vegetation height (m/year) 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5
Increasing rate of vegetation density (m-1/year) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Maximum vegetation R 2m 2.0 * 15.0 15.0 15.0
height (m) R 2m * 1.5 * * *
Maximum vegetation density (m-1) 0.031 0.031 0.023 0.013 0.013
l, vegetation height of willows; R , relative height of the bed from the water level in normal water stage
*According to the definition in this model, no data are required because the vegetation never establish in such a condition, based
on field observations conducted in the target area.

is the effective non-dimensional tractive force, *ci 4.4.2 Growth of vegetation

*i
signifies the critical tractive force, u* denotes the friction
velocity, u* is the effective friction velocity, u*ci is the
critical friction velocity, s ( ( s ) / ) is the specific
weight of sand, the constants K , 0 , and * are,
respectively, 0.008, 0.5, and 0.14. i is the function related
to suspended load. The critical tractive force was
evaluated using Egiazaroffs formula (Egiazaroff, 1965).
4.4 Conceptual model of vegetation life
We numerically simulated the processes of establishment,
growth, expansion, washout, and lodging of vegetation in
rivers on an annual basis. Concretely, the values of two
variables, vegetation height and vegetation density
defined in each numerical cell over the Ohara area are
updated sequentially in these processes. The requisite
parameters values for these processes were determined
partly from the observation results and academic
references.
4.4.1 Wash-out and lodging of vegetation
Table 2 shows criteria for the judgment of wash-out and
lodging conditions of vegetation. The criteria were
applied for the numerical simulation. The condition for
wash-out or lodging was judged fundamentally based on
the vegetation height and the bed deformation in the bed
where the corresponding vegetation exists. The bed
deformation was calculated using the sedimentation
model described above. If vegetation wash-out occurs in a
numerical cell, then the values of two variables at this cell
are reset to zero. In contrast, if the lodging of vegetation
occurs, then the vegetation height is reduced by half,
although the vegetation density does not change.
Through the field observations after flooding, we found
several samples of vegetation which lodged under
circumstances by which its foundation was not removed.
Therefore, we also considered the lodging situation of
vegetation because of the moment by a drag force acting
on vegetation. For such a case, we assumed that
vegetation wash-out does not occur.
Table 3 presents the conditions for increasing rates and
maximum values of the vegetation height as well as
vegetation density. This table was produced based on the
observation results. These values were used simply for
updating the state quantities in the process of vegetation
growth without considering other factors related to the
growth process.
4.4.3 Establishment and expansion of vegetation
Figure 7 presents a conceptual framework used for
simulating the biology of vegetation in rivers, especially
explaining the processes of establishment and expansion
of vegetation in rivers. This framework was established
through trial and error, based both on the observations at
the Ohara area and on academic references related to
reforestation in rivers (e.g., Suetsugi et al., 2004). Four
phases of vegetation dynamics are specified in this
framework. We simulated the dynamics numerically.
The phase changes are shown in numerical order,
depending on values of two parameters: the relative
height of the bed from the water level in the normal water
stage, and the period during which the river bed had not
been deformed more than 10 cm in certain hydraulic
conditions. In concrete terms, each phase is defined
specifically as follows.
Phase I: No vegetation has established in a bare field for
the first year after the bed was disturbed.
Phase II: If the river bed has remained undisturbed for
two years, then willows (vegetation height l =1.5 m,
vegetation density =0.023 m-1) establish near the
water edge.
Phase III: If the bed has remained undisturbed for four
years, Phragmites japonica ( l =1.5 m, =0.011 m-1)
establish in zone A in which the relative height is
less than 2 m. Eragrostis curvula ( l =1.0 m, =0.011
m-1) also establishes in zone B.
Phase IV: If the bed has remained undisturbed for six
years, then willows ( l =2.0 m, =0.023 m-1) establish

4
 (a) Phase I (b) Phase II Table 4. Numerical conditions of the river discharge and water
zone B zone A level for model validation
phase shift Year Discharge (m3/s) Water level (m)
2007 700 11.43
Willow
Relative height 2008 700 11.43
=2m
2009 800 11.61
2010 700 11.43
(c) Phase III (d) Phase IV 2011 3400 14.14
2012 2000 13.26
Eragrostis
Phragmites Eragrostis
curvula
japonica Willow phase shift curvula
Willow
August, 2006 June, 2013

Figure 7. Schematic view of a concept of the phase shift to

N N
simulate the processes of establishment and expansion of
vegetation in rivers. Phase shift occurs depending on the period
of duration under the undisturbed bed condition.
FLOW FLOW
in zone A, resulting in the disappearance of 100m 100m
Phragmites japonica existing there. Willows do not
establish in zone B. Only Eragrostis curvula flourish Figure 8. Aerial photographs taken at the Ohara area (left,
there. August 2006; right, June 2013).
Long-term observations revealed that vegetation does not Vegetation height (m) Vegetation density (m-1)
establish around the upstream region in the Ohara area
because of human activities for recreation such as fishing
and swimming. Therefore, the growth rate of vegetation
was exceptionally set up as zero. The rules for processes
of establishment and vegetation expansion are not applied
at the upstream region.
5. VALIDATION CALCULATION
5.1 Numerical procedure

Numerical simulations of vegetation dynamics model

were performed in the target domain including the Ohara Figure 9. Vegetation conditions in 2006, prepared for initial data
area. For the flood stage part, the flow and sedimentation of vegetation dynamics simulations.
was simulated numerically as follows. Equations 13 and
Vegetation height (m) Vegetation density (m-1)
Equation 10 were discretized using the finite difference
method with support of the concept of the finite volume
method. Details of numerical schemes are described in an
earlier report (Yoshida et al., 2013). The time increment
of t , which was 0.02 s, was adjusted to allow for
numerical stability so that the Courant number was less
than 1.0. The computational mesh consisted of (N , N ) =
135 57 cells, with 135 cross-sections in the longitudinal
direction and 57 nodes in each cross-section. The mesh
sizes were around 10 m. The channel bathymetry of the
targeted domain was obtained by combining and Figure 10. Validation results of vegetation condition in 2013.
interpolating geographical data of two kinds: data given
in 2004 by a direct survey every 200 m along the main differ slightly from the maximum values in the real
channel, and data obtained in 2006 at the floodplains hydrograph of each flood, considering the computation
using an aerial laser scanner. The boundary conditions efficiency. Generally, numerical simulations using the real
were given as follows: (1) The upstream boundary hydrograph take much computation time to provide
condition was the river discharge estimated at the many useful data, although they include non-essential
hydraulic station. (2) The downstream boundary data for our model of vegetation dynamics. Therefore, we
condition was the water level measured using the averaged the hydraulic data recorded for four hours,
which includes the midmost peak time when the
installed water gauge. However, as for the normal water
maximum discharge was recorded. Then, we conducted
stage part, calculations were performed for updating the
numerical simulations of each flood flow and
vegetation height and density at each numerical cell based sedimentation for four hours using these averaged values
on the conceptual model using hydraulic data obtained as the time-invariant boundary conditions.
numerically in the last flood stage part.
5.2 Result of validation calculation
Table 4 shows the numerical conditions used for the
model verification during 20072012. These data represent Figure 8 shows aerial photographs taken of the Ohara
the river discharges and the water levels for the boundary area both in August 2006 and in June 2013. In the area
conditions used in the flood flow simulations. These data surrounded by the red and white dotted line, vegetation

5
Table 5. Discharge calculated using prediction calculation each Table 6. Cases of prediction calculation
year. Case 1 No trimming
Year Discharge (m/s)
2013 1800 Case 2 Trimming in initial data in second year
2014 1100 Case 3 Trimming in initial data in forth year
2015 1700
2016 900 Case 4 Trimming in initial data in sixth year
2017 1700 Case 5 Trimming in initial data in eighth year
2018 1200
2019 800 Case2
2020 1300 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
2021 1200
2022 1600 3400m/s
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Trimming
Case0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

3400m/s

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Case1
Figure 13 Frame format of Case 0, 1 and 2.
(m)

Figure 11. Prediction result of vegetation height. (left, after five
years (2017); right, after ten years (2022)).
around 12 m tall after 10 years. Additionally, we
confirmed that all vegetation was neither washed out nor
lodged in the area. Therefore, if the flood discharge is less
than 2000 m3/s for the next decade, the flood gives little
damage to vegetation. Additionally, vegetation will keep
growing up.

6.3 Influence of different vegetation conditions in the

upper area of the Ohara area

Figure 12. Trimming vegetation established in the upper area of
the Ohara area.
was established more thickly in 2013. Figure 9 presents
the vegetation height and density in 2006. They were
initial conditions of validation calculation. Figure 10
presents results of the calculation of the vegetation height
and density in 2013. As the figure shows, vegetation
established around the water edge, downstream region.
Therefore, we were able to confirm the point of vegetation
establishment in the Ohara area. In addition, the
vegetation, which is 23 m tall, flourishes near the waters
edge. This result matches well with the observation
results. Therefore, our model can fundamentally
reproduce vegetation conditions in the Ohara area.
6. PREDICTION CALCULATION
6.1 Outline of prediction calculation
In this chapter, we predict forestation for 20132022 using
a vegetation dynamics model with reproducibility that
was proven in the prior chapter. We assumed that the
discharge of flood was set from 1000 m/s to 2000 m/s
each year because the average amount of the discharge of
flood during 20032012 was less than 2000 m/s. Table 5
shows the flood discharge each year.
6.2 Results of prediction calculation
Figure 11 presents the vegetation height in the Ohara area
after five years and ten years of prediction calculation.
This figure shows that the height of most vegetation was
6.3.1 Outline
Efficient river management demands that vegetation be
washed out by the floods occurring frequently in this
river. Therefore, it is necessary that we ascertain the limit
of being washed out and lodged by different vegetation
conditions. We discussed influences of flooding of 3400
m3/s which was the largest discharge during 20032012 if
vegetation which establishes in the upper area of the
Ohara area is trimmed, as shown in Figure 12.
Table 6 presents cases we assumed for these analyses.
Figure 13 shows a frame format of Cases 0, 1, and 2. Case
0 are data which calculated in the last section. In Case 1,
we assess vegetation dynamics assuming that a flood of
3400 m/s occurs each year. In Cases 2, 3, and 4, we assess
vegetation conditions assuming that vegetation which
establishes in the upper area of the Ohara area is trimmed.
For example, in Case 1-(4), we conducted calculations
using discharge of Table 5 until 2016. Then we used a
discharge of 3400 m3/s in calculation of 2017. In Case 1-
(5), we conducted calculations using discharge data of
Table 5 until 2017; thereafter, we used discharge of 3400
m3/s in calculations for 2018.
6.3.2 Results and discussion
Table 7 presents results of vegetation dynamics for each
case. Figure 14 presents results of the vegetation height of
Case 1 after a flood of 3400 m3/s in the Ohara area. The
white dotted line in this figure is the area where lodging
occurred. In Cases 1(4), shown in Figure 14(a), the
vegetation height dropped to 4 m from 8 m by flooding. In
Cases 1(5), shown in Figure 14(b), the vegetation was

6
 Table 7. Results of vegetation dynamics each case
Case1 Case2 Case3 Case4 Case5
(1):2014 L W - - -
(2):2015 L L - - -
(3):2016 L L L - -
(4):2017 L L L - -
(5):2018 L L L L -
(6):2019 LN LN LN LN -
(7):2020 N N LN LN LN
(8):2021 N N N N N
(9):2022 N N N N N
W: Wash-out and lodging, L: Lodging,
(m)
LN: Lodging near the water edge only, N: No change (a) Result of (1): vegetation height after flood

(m) (m)
(a) Result of (4): vegetation height after flood (b) Result of (5): vegetation height after flood

(m)
(b) Result of (5): vegetation height after flood (m) (c) Result of (6): vegetation height after flood

(m) (m)
(c) Result of (6): vegetation height after flood (d) Result of (7): vegetation height after flood
Figure 14 Results of case-1 Figure 15 Results of case-2

over 8 m tall, but lodging of vegetation only occurred near was lodged near the waters edge, and more than 10.5 m
the waters edge. Additionally, in Case 1-(6), the tall wasnt lodged despite the absence of vegetation in the
vegetation height was greater than 9 m and lodging did upper area of the Ohara area.
not occur even near the waters edge, as shown in Figure Results show that if vegetation established in the upper
14(c). area of the Ohara area is trimmed, then vegetation less
than 5 m tall was washed out in the Ohara area.
Figure 15 presents results of the vegetation height of Case
Therefore, we inferred that vegetation in the upper area
2 after a flood of 3400 m3/s in the area. The yellow dashed
blocked flood flows. However, vegetation only shows
line and white dotted line in this figure are areas where
lodging if it is more than 5 m tall. For the case in which
washing out and lodging occurred. In Case 2-(1) shown in
there was no vegetation in the upper area of the Ohara
Figure 15(a), a portion of vegetation of 5 m height was
area, vegetation more than 8 m tall was not lodged. If
washed out, and most vegetation was lodged. However,
vegetation height exceeded 10.5 m, then lodging did not
in Case 2-(2), 6 m tall vegetation was not washed out. In
occur, in both cases where vegetation in the upper area of
Cass 2(5), shown in Figure 15(b), vegetation less than 9 m
the Ohara area established and did not establish.
tall was lodged. Then, as Figure 15(c) shows, vegetation of
Irrespective of the vegetation condition, when vegetation
more than 9 m tall was only lodged near the waters edge.
grows beyond 10.5 m, flooding of 3400 m3/s produces
Additionally, vegetation more than 10 m tall was not
little impact on washing out and lodging. Trim vegetation
lodged. In Cases 3, 4, and 5, vegetation less than 10 m tall

7
in the upper area of the Ohara area is necessary if wash- Area Expansion of Riparian Plant Communities in
out causes flooding of 3400 m3/s. Gravel Bed Rivers. Technical Note of National Institute
for Land and Infrastructure Management, No. 161. (in
7. CONCLUSION Japanese)
This paper describes a vegetation dynamics model and its Tanaka, N. and Yagisawa, J. (2008). Differences of tree-
application to the Ohara area in the lower Asahi River in breaking pattern and breaking moment by floods with
Japan for effective river management. We verified its different tree age and substrate condition under two
reproducibility based on field observations and aerial flood disturbances. 2008, Proc. of ICHE, 473-474.
photographs. Then we predicted the vegetation condition
in the river for the next several years. We also discussed Toda, Y., Sakai, T. and Tsujimoto, T. (2013). Numerical
the vegetation dynamics by flooding of 3400 m3/s, which simulation of long-term trend of bar morphology and
was the greatest discharge during 20032012, when vegetation distribution with consideration of
vegetation in the upper area of the Ohara area was interspecific competition and expansion of riparian
trimmed. vegetation. Proc. of Advances in River Sediment Research,
1541-1546.
Results for validation calculations showed that our model
can fundamentally reproduce vegetation conditions in the Yoshida, K., Maeno, S., Matsuyama, S. and Mishima, N.
Ohara area. The prediction results showed that in a case (2013). Effect of flood impact on wash-out of
with no flooding of more than 2000 m3/s, vegetation in vegetation and bed deformation in the Asahi River.
the area was not washed out or lodged. It grew to become Proc. of Advances in River Sediment Research, 1657-1666.
12 m tall. In cases where there was vegetation in the upper
area of the Ohara area, wash-out did not occur. However,
in the case with no vegetation in the upper area,
vegetation of 5 m was washed out. Therefore, we inferred
that vegetation in the upper area blocked flood flows. In
addition, irrespective of vegetation conditions in the
upper area, when vegetation grew to more than 10.5 m,
flooding of 3400 m3/s had little effect on wash-out and
lodging. Only for vegetation in the upper area of the
Ohara area that is trimmed before growing to over 5 m
tall will be vulnerable to flooding and wash-out by 3400
m3/s flows.

8. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was supported in part by the River Fund
administered by the River Foundation, Japan
(http://www.kasenseibikikin.jp/). This work was also
partly supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number
26820203 .
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