Proceedings of the 19th IAHR-APD Congress 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam

ISBN 978604821338-1

Short-term Prediction of Chlorophyll-a in a Eutrophic Closed Water Body using Chaos Recurrent Neural
Network

MASAYOSHI HARADA(1), KAZUAKI HIRAMATSU(2) & SHINJI FUKUDA(3)

(1)
Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan, mharada@bpes.kyushu-u.ac.jp
(2)
Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan, hiramatsu@bpes.kyushu-u.ac.jp
(3)
Faculty of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Tokyo, Japan, shinji-f@cc.tuat.ac.jp

ABSTRACT
Field measurement methods for chlorophyll-a concentrations have been developed, enabling data collection in a short
time scale because of recent technological advancements in optical sensors. Such time-series data provide important
findings in analyses and predictions of aquatic environments targeting eutrophic water areas. In this study, the water
quality dynamics in a eutrophic reservoir in a flat low-lying agricultural area was analyzed from the viewpoint of short-
time prediction of time series data using artificial intelligence to assess the water environmental dynamics related to a
phytoplankton. Specifically, we proposed a short-term prediction method for chlorophyll-a concentrations with a chaos
recurrent neural network based on continuous observation data. This study aimed to improve the degree of prediction
accuracy with observation noise processing, which uses wavelet analysis and reinforcement learning with supplemental
training data, and then examined the effectiveness of the prediction method. As a result, by introducing the noise
processing, the accuracy of the predictions improved significantly and the practicality of the method proposed in this
study increased, as evidenced by the fact that the lead time exceeded 48 h. In particular, it is suggested that predications
are feasible with the same degree of accuracy for each lead time within the limit lead time. Yet distinctive variation
patterns emerge with regard to changes in the algae species composition caused by artificial effects during the period in
which irregular water level management takes place. Therefore, it was difficult to conduct real-time predictions for
chronological changes that share no similarities with such learning data.

Keywords: in-vivo chlorophyll-a; Mass propagation of algae; Agricultural reservoir; Time series analysis; Noise processing by
wavelet

1. INTRODUCTION models that consider currents inside subject water bodies

are also used. However, applying these models to actual
Japan has a long tradition of using lakes, reservoirs and
environments is not easy because of the large number of
creeks as irrigation water resources in low-lying
parameters that must be determined. Nevertheless, one of
agricultural areas. However, these water bodies are
the completely different analytical methods is the
increasingly threatened by the effects of urbanization and
dynamic prediction of aquatic environments which uses
mixed residential areas, which destroy water resources
artificial-intelligence (AI) technology represented by
through eutrophication and other processes. Knowledge
neural networks (e.g., Cho et al., 2011; Chen et al., 2010;
gained from detailed monitoring of water quality is
Kalin et al., 2010). This prediction is characterized by one
essential for formulating environmental rehabilitation
of the time-series analyses using pattern recognition, and
measures and for preventing eutrophication. Due to
allows for relatively short-term future forecasts using
recent technological advancements in optical sensors,
past information up to the present by formulating
field measurement methods for chlorophyll a
abstractions using data from the autocorrelation
concentrations (hereafter referred to as Chl-a) have been
structures that underlie the time-series data. In recent
developed, enabling data collection in a short time scale.
years, recurrent neural networks have drawn attention as
The observational data obtained from such monitoring
a short-term prediction method for irregular time series.
are extremely valuable for the analysis of water bodies
Aihara et al. (1990) and Nakagawa (1995) proposed a
undergoing eutrophication (Pinto et al., 2001;
recurrent neural network composed of neurons having
Leboulanger et al., 2002; Rolland et al., 2010). Such time-
chaos dynamics as a non-linear prediction method for
series data provide important findings in analyses and
chaos time series. Its potential and effectiveness have
predictions of aquatic environments targeting eutrophic
been reported by numerous past studies (e.g., Srihanu
water areas.
and Nakagawa, 2001). Many studies concerning chaos
The mathematical analysis of eutrophic water bodies has neurons, however, deal with irregular time series that
mainly been conducted through water-quality prediction have been artificially generated, and only a few studies
using ecological models that rely on indices such as addressed time series obtained from actual observations
chlorophyll and nutritive salts (Sai et al., 2008; Nguyen et (e.g., Hotaka and Nakagawa, 2006; Hotaka and
al., 2010; Harada et al., 2013a). Water-quality forecasting Nakagawa, 2007).

1
This study proposed that the use of an AI-aided water-
quality prediction model for analyzing aquatic
environments would contribute to the sustainable
preservation and management of water resources in low-
lying agricultural areas. In this study, continuous
observations of in vivo chlorophyll a (Chl-a) were
conducted at an agricultural reservoir manifesting
eutrophication, and time series data was collected for a
period of approximately three years. This data was used
with a chaos recurrent neural network in an attempt to
perform a short-term prediction of Chl-a. Harada et al.
(2013b) indicated the potential for short-term predictions
of Chl-a based on continuously observed data. However,
issues of practicality remain, because the lead time that
can be predicted was merely a few hours. This study
aimed to increase the practicality of short-term
predictions of the Chl-a time series through
improvements of two aspects, namely, the eradication of
noise in data obtained from observation equipment and
enhanced learning through supplementation of training
data. In particular, the potentials for short-term
predictions with lead time of several days were
examined, to improve the prediction accuracy with
smoothing of observation data based on wavelet analysis.
2. SUMMARY OF OBSERVED DATA
Figure 1. Fluctuation of water level in studied agricultural
reservoir. The upper photograph depicts the normal water level,
while the lower photograph describes a drop of more than 2 m
in water level since October 2011The water body studied was an
agricultural reservoir in a low-lying reclaimed tidal area, with a
catchment area of about 3.1 ha, a surface area of about 19,300 m 2,
an average depth of about 3.5 m, and the total volume of about
54,200 m3 (Tominaga et al., 2009). The studied reservoir did not
have any incurrent connections with rivers or canals, and water
flowed in only through a small-scale canal linked to a reservoir of
the same scale as the reservoir upstream. The flow rate thereof,
however, was undetermined. According to water level monitoring
data from 2008 onwards, intermittent water discharges were
conducted for supplying irrigation water from June to October,
with a confirmed drop of 2030 cm on average in water level, and
up to approximately 50 cm at most. A large amount of reservoir
water was discharged owing to a repair work that was performed
on the sluice gate in the latter half of September 2011, resulting in
a drop of more than 2 m in water level (Figure 1). An increase in
eutrophication was confirmed using past water quality
investigation results, and was attributed to an increase in
phytoplankton from summer to fall seasons, which led to the Chl-
a exceeding 20g/l and the water taking on green color as shown
in Figure 2. Outbreaks of microcystis due to cyanobacteria were
observed in the latter half of July and middle of September 2007
(Matsumoto et al., 2008).
Figure 2. Eutrophic state of studied water body.In this study, the
continuous observation of in-vivo chlorophyll-a concentration at
class-differentiated algal level was carried out using a multi-
wavelength excitation fluorometer for monitoring the species
composition and seasonal fluctuations of phytoplankton. This
instrument uses a fluorescence excitation spectrum obtained by
exposing chlorophyll-a to LED lights of six different wavelengths,
for measuring the chlorophyll-a from four algae classes,
chlorophyceae (green algae), cyanobacteria (blue-green algae),
cryptophytes, and diatom/dinoflagellates (Beutler et al., 2002).
Since diatom and dinoflagellates have similar spectra, these
species could not be differentiated, so their chlorophyll was
measured together. The instrument measured the total
chlorophyll-a by adding together the chlorophyll-a from the four
algae classes.
The period of observation was May 2009December 2011.
Data was recorded at one-hour intervals by the
measuring instrument installed near the water surface
close to an embankment. Figure 3 shows observation data
on the total Chl-a as well as each algae class-based Chl-a
level. As can be seen from the figure, the changes in
chlorophyceae chlorophyll over time are generally
consistent with those in total chlorophyll. Thus, the
seasonal fluctuations of phytoplankton species in the
subject reservoir were largely defined by chlorophyceae.
Cyanobacteria chlorophyll peaked in the summer months
of July 2009, July 2010, and September 2010, but at times
other than these, its concentration levels were low. The
levels of the chlorophyll from diatom/dinoflagellates and
cryptophytes tended to increase in summer and spring,
but they formed a small percentage of the total
chlorophyll. As this suggests, seasonal changes in species
composition at the algae class level are small throughout
the observation period. Therefore, this study focused
only on the total Chl-a level as time-series data. Damage
to the observation instrument caused intermittent data
losses. For this reason, measurements were divided into
eight observation periods, as can be seen in Table 1, and
the data was analyzed on a block-by-block basis. The
research investigated the extent to which the Chl-a level
would change in only a few days based upon the total
2
 Total 8 3.1 Outline of real-time prediction
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 In this study, if sufficient time-series data xt can be
50 accumulated in real time, data xt ~ xt corresponding
to a period t , from a time in the past, , to the
0 present time t , can be used to predict data
xt 1 ~ xt T up to a time T in the future (Harada et
80 Chlorophyceae
al., 2005; Harada et al., 2006; Sai et al., 2007; Harada et al.,
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2013b). Such short-term prediction methods focus on
40
recurrent neural networks (RNN), which are hierarchical
networks consisting of three levelsinput, intermediate,
0
and output (Figure 4). One characteristic of RNN is that
the calculated values from the output level
80 Cyanobacteria x't k k 1, Tmax 1 are fed back into the input
Chl.a ( g/l )

1 8
level as xt k x't k . Because of this characteristic, it
40 2 3 4 5 6 7 is possible to perform real-time predictions by using
mapping influenced by the autocorrelation structures of
0 time series, which is not possible by merely using the
simple mapping of past and future data intervals
80 Diatom/Dinoflagellates (Hiramatsu et al., 1995). The feedback units after learning
7 8
should be expected to be xt k x't k 0 , so this
40 1 2 3 4 5 6 portion is removed when the forecast is made.

0
Figure 4. Concept of short-term prediction of time series data by
80 Cryptophytes recurrent neural networks. The network used in this study
8 (PCRNN, described below) is an RNN composed of
40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 periodic chaos neurons proposed by Nakagawa (1995).
The time-series data was normalized at 0 , 1 . The
0 calculation steps for iterative learning were characterized
2009/ 2010/ 2011/ by n. The internal activity L , j and output signals
5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 s L , j of the j-th chaos neuron from level L were
Year/Month
calculated using the following equations.
Figure 3. Continuous observation data on the total Chl-a
levels as well as each algae class-based Chl-a level N L 1
(chlorophyceae, cyanobacteria
diatom/dinoflagellates, cryptophytes,) by a multi-
and
L , j n L , j n 1 w
i 1
L , i , j n sL 1 , i n L , j n
wavelength excitation fluorometer.
[1]
Table 1. Definition of observation blocks.
1 L , j n 1
Observation Block Period (Year/Month/Day) sL , j n sin [2]
2 2 2
1 2009/05/28 2009/07/21
2 2009/07/24 2009/10/04
Here wL ,i , j is the combined weight of the i-th neuron
from level L 1 to the j-th neuron from level L,
3 2009/10/28 2009/12/02
Timeseries data x t Present time
4 2009/12/09 2010/05/11
5 2010/05/18 2010/08/30
6 2010/09/06 2011/02/23
7 2011/07/12 2011/09/26 t t t+T t+Tmax
8 2011/10/19 2011/12/13 Past Future
Input Intermediate
Chl-a observation data. The result revealed that the level Input data layer Layer
xt OutpuInput
fluctuated approximately 15 and 25 g/l at maximum in Layer Predictions
one day and three days, respectively, causing a x't+1

significant change in the aquatic environment in a few xt1 x't+2
days. This shows that it is possible to acknowledge again xt


the significance of short-time Chl-a predictions with a
| xt+1x't+1 |
lead time of one to three days. x't+T1
| xt+2x't+2 |
x't+T

3. REAL-TIME PREDICTION BASED ON THE

CONTINUOUS OBSERVATION DATA BY | xt+T1x't+T1 |
CHAOS RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORKS
Input units Feedback units

3
 L , j is the threshold of the j-th neuron from level L, 1
Tmax
and N L is the number of neurons in level L. The model

2
NashSutcliffe coefficient R
constants and denote the memory constant and 0.9
cycle parameter, respectively. The Nakagawa model can
be used for the evaluation of the auto-feedback of a 0.8
neurons internal state, but it cannot be used for the
0.7
examination of the recalcitrance of a neuron, unlike the
model proposed by Aihara et al. (1990). Also, the Observation blocks
0.6 :1 :2 :3 :4
activating function for calculating the output signal from
:5 :6
the level of internal activity is modeled on the sine wave
0.5
of a cyclic activating function. Leaning in PCRNN, like in 0 10 20 30 40 50
RNN, is accomplished through the back-propagation Lead time T (h)
principle (Okada and Nakagawa, 1999; Onozaka and
Nakagawa, 1999). If the learning progresses at a sufficient outputs. For example, the performance of the
rate, the internal conditions of each chaos neuron will hydrological model was high in the case of R 2 0.7
vary by small amounts in different learning rounds, and (Ragab et al., 2001).
the relation L , j n L , j n 1 will hold true for
formula [1]. This indicates that the internal activity of the Figure 5 shows the relationship between R 2 T and T
neurons L , j in the prediction process can be obtained for the reproduction calculations for observation blocks 1
from the following equation. to 6 in the case of 24 h and Tmax 48 h. As the
figure suggests, the accuracy of the predictions declines
as the lead time becomes longer. Based on this finding,
N L 1

1 this study allowed up to approximately 0.7 for the
L, j wL ,i , j n sL 1 ,i n L , j n
1 i 1 practical calculation accuracy and determined the upper
limit on the lead time that enables predictive calculations.
[3]
This is called the limit lead time. For observation block 5
As stated above, the observation period was divided into described in Figure 5, it can be interpreted that a short-
a total of eight observation blocks, and block-unit-based term prediction up to 34 h in advance is feasible with
calculations were conducted as described in Table 1. In accuracy for the predictive calculation of the 48 h
other words, this research introduced learning with one maximum lead time. Ultimately, the objective of this
or more observation data for the observation blocks as study is to improve the accuracy of calculations and to
training data and built a network. Then, the feasibility of enable the limit lead time to reach several days.
predictive calculations was examined by reproducing the
time-series data for all observation blocks including the
teaching data. As mentioned below, reproduction Figure 5. Relationship between Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient R2 and
measurements were performed for the calculations of the lead time T for the reproduction calculations for observation
teaching data after learning, and forecast calculations blocks 1 to 6 in the case of 24 h and 48 h.3.2 Improvement
were performed for the measurements for the other of real-time prediction by introducing observation noise
blocks. To evaluate the accuracy of predictive processing
calculations, this study employed the Nash-Sutcliffe
This study focused on the noise processing on the
coefficient R 2 T , which is obtained from the expected
observation data to improve the accuracy of the
output and the calculated value for each lead time
calculations. Since observation noises derived from
ranging from the current time to the maximum lead time
observation equipment are viewed as a factor that
(Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970).
reduces the accuracy of predictions, data smoothing was
N performed by cutting high-frequency components using

(x T
o,n
T 2
xc,n ) discrete wavelet analysis. Discrete wavelet transform and
inverse discrete wavelet transform, in relation to the time
R2 T 1 n1
N
[4] step t dispersed time series x t , are defined in
(x
n1
T
o,n
T
xAve ) 2
the following manner, with the orthonormal base
k , m (t ) (Newland, 1993).
T T
Here x o,n and xc,n denote respectively the observed wk , m x(t ), k , m (t ) [5]
results and simulated results corresponding to the lead
T
time, and xAve is the means of observations calculated
from viewpoint of T. The NashSutcliffe coefficient R 2 ,
x(t ) w
k m
k ,m k , m (t ) [6]

whose value is in the range R 2 1 , was used to Here the symbol denotes the inner product, and
assess the predictive power of numerical simulation
w k , m is an amplitude of wavelet component k , m (t ) .
models in consideration of the magnitude of data Also, the level k and translation parameter m
variance. As in the case of the determination coefficient, correspond to the frequency and time, respectively. The
the closer the coefficient is to 1, the more accurate the wavelet component k , m t was expressed as
model is. Therefore, NashSutcliffe coefficients can be k , m t 2 k 2 2 k t m
using the analyzing
used to quantitatively describe the accuracy of model wavelet t , and the Daubechies wavelet with 20

4
coefficients was adopted for this study. When the reconfigured by setting the wavelet coefficient with
number of data for a time series is 2 n , x t is divided respect to multiple levels of higher orders to zero. This
into a total of n 1 levels of wavelet component signifies deletion of all specified high frequency
k , m (t ) . When the sampling frequency of the data is components from time series data and smoothing of data
set to f s 1 t , the mid-frequency of each level is based on the low-pass filter.
k n
expressed by f c , k 2 f s . Noise processing based on
Noise processing was performed on an input data set at
the wavelet analysis was achieved by performing a
the time of learning and predictive calculations. The
threshold process on the wavelet coefficient w k , m
processing was also employed on the expected output
decomposed by equation (5) and reconfiguring the time
value at the time of learning. Since the discrete wavelet
series using the corrected coefficient in equation (6).
analysis requires that the number of data be provided
Because the noise in the observation data includes high
based on a power of two, both the time history and the
frequency components, performing a threshold process
maximum lead time were set at 32 h for the time-series
only over the high frequency region, as suggested by
data with a 1 h interval. Additionally, noise processing
Harada et al. (2006), is hypothetically feasible. However,
was performed on the output data and the expected
in reality, setting theoretically and statistically accurate
output value at the time of learning by cutting two high
threshold values is difficult. The time series was therefore
levels of wavelet components, i.e., cutting the
components shorter than a 4 h cycle as high-frequency
20 components. The number of neurons in the input,
Training data: Observation Block 3
Total Chl.a (g/l)

interval, and output levels were N 1 72 , N 2 24 ,

and N 3 48 , respectively. The model parameters were
10
0.11 and 1.0 , and there were 10,000 rounds
of learning. N 1 included 47 feedback units and 1
0 threshold unit.
'09/10/28 11/7 11/17 11/27 12/7
60
Predicting targe: Observation Block 4
Total Chl.a (g/l)

2
:T =1h (R =0.461) :Observations Figure 6. Chronological changes for the limit lead time
30 in the predicting results of Observation Block 4 and 5
only using Observation Block 3 as training data. Figure 6
displays chronological changes for the limit lead time in
0 the calculation results on real-time predictions which
'09/12/17 '10/2/5 3/27 5/16
80 target both Observation Block 4 and Observation Block 5.
Predicting targe: Observation Block 5
Total Chl.a (g/l)

Each of these cases shows learning that took place only

60 2
:T =1h (R =0.452) :Observations using Observation Block 3. The upper side of the figure
40 presents the case without noise processing, while the
20
Table 2. An upper limit of lead time for both reproduction and
0 prediction calculations. Parentheses mean the results of
'10/5/21 6/10 6/30 7/20 8/9 8/29
Year/Month/Day reproduction calculations.
(1) with raw data (1) with raw data
20
Training data: Observation Block 3 Training Predicting Targe Observation Blocks
Total Chl.a (g/l)

Block 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 (32) 0 19 19 17 32 21 0
10
2 0 (3) 4 0 0 0 0 0
3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 4 16 0 25 (30) 12 32 10 0
'09/10/28 11/7 11/17 11/27 12/7 5 27 0 10 5 (22) 20 21 0
60
Predicting targe: Observation Block 4 6 29 0 26 28 16 (32) 17 0
Total Chl.a (g/l)

2
:Tlim =28h (R =0.720) :Observations 7 32 0 0 10 20 23 (25) 0
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (2)
30
(2) with noise processing data
Training Predicting Targe Observation Blocks
0 Block 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
'09/12/17 '10/2/5 3/27 5/16
80 1 (32) 31 32 32 32 32 32 0
Predicting targe: Observation Block 5
Total Chl.a (g/l)

2 19 (32) 15 13 19 19 19 0
60 2
:T =8h (R =0.717) :Observations
lim
3 28 26 28 8 6 7 0
40 4 32 31 32 (32) 32 32 26 0
20 5 32 6 31 32 (32) 32 32 0
6 32 26 32 32 32 (32) 32 0
0
'10/5/21 6/10 6/30 7/20 8/9 8/29 7 32 0 0 32 32 32 (32) 0
Year/Month/Day 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (32)
(2) with noise processing data
unit: h
Parentheses mean the results of reproduction calculations
5
lower side of the figure depicts the case with noise Figure 7 shows the prediction result for Observation
processing. The figure also shows the limit lead time Block 4 and 5. The limit lead time was 8 h when learning
values. Although the level of improvement in calculation took place only with the data for a single observation
accuracy varies, it reveals improvement effects on the block. However, it improved to 32 h when the number of
limit lead time by noise processing. Table 2 describes training data was increased by using observation data for
predictive calculation results for each observation block multiple blocks. As this suggests, the accuracy of
when learning took place with only observation data for calculations dramatically improved except for
one observation block. The values in the table denote the
limit lead times. The upper row shows the result without
noise processing while the lower row displays that with 100
Predicting targe: Observation Block 1

Total Chl.a (g/l)

noise processing. The zero values in the table represent 2
:Tlim =64h (R =0.709) :Observations
cases in which predictions cannot be made. For instance,
50
it is not possible to perform predictive calculations for
Block 2 and Block 8 without noise processing when only
Observation Block 1 data are used as training data. 0
However, a short-term prediction (approximately 20 h) '09/5/31 6/10 6/20 6/30 7/10 7/20
30
on the lead time for Blocks 37 is feasible. Performing Predicting targe: Observation Block 2

Total Chl.a (g/l)

noise processing significantly increased the limit lead 2
:Tlim =56h (R =0.707) :Observations
20
time for Blocks 27 to 32 h. Table 2 suggests that data
smoothing with the wavelet analysis is effective for 10
chronological predictions, although improvement effects
on the limit lead time vary depending on observation 0
'09/7/30 8/19 9/8 9/28
blocks except for Block 8.
20
Total Chl.a (g/l) Predicting targe: Observation Block 3
2
:Tlim =64h (R =0.718) :Observations
10
Figure 7. Chronological changes for the limit lead time in the
predicting results of Observation Block 4 and 5 with
multiple training block data in the case of 32 h and 32 h.
0
'09/10/28 11/7 11/17 11/27 12/7
50
Predicting targe: Observation Block 4
Total Chl.a (g/l)

2
:Tlim =64h (R =0.806) :Observations
Figure 8. Relationship between R2 and T for the prediction
25
calculations for observation blocks 1 to 8 with multiple
training block data in the case of 64 h and 64 h.3.3
Reinforcement of the network learning with supplemental 0
training data '09/12/17 '10/2/5 3/27 5/16
60
Predicting targe: Observation Block 5
Total Chl.a (g/l)

If similarities can be found in variation patterns for data

2
used for learning and prediction targets, the feasibility of :Tlim =36h (R =0.701) :Observations
predictions increases and improvements in the accuracy 30
of calculations can be expected. With this in mind,
learning was carried out in seven out of the eight
observation blocks to conduct learning with the data 0
'10/5/21 6/10 6/30 7/20 8/9 8/29
containing various variation characteristics of Chl-a 60
Predicting targe: Observation Block 6
Total Chl.a (g/l)

stemming from seasonality. Then, prediction calculations

2
for the remaining observation block were performed. :Tlim =64h (R =0.816) :Observations
30

60
Predicting targe: Observation Block 4
R Chl.a (g/l)

0
2
:Tlim =32h (R =0.840) :Observations '10/9/8 10/28 12/17 '11/2/5
Observation blocks 80
30
Total Chl.a (g/l)

:1 :2 :3 :4 :5 :6 :7 :8 Predicting targe: Observation Block 7

2
:Tlim =36h (R =0.703) :Observations
2
Total

1 40
0
coefficient

'09/12/17 '10/2/5 3/27 5/16

0.7
80
Predicting targe: Observation Block 5
Total Chl.a (g/l)

0.5 0
60 2
:T =32h (R =0.744) :Observations '11/7/9 6/10 6/30 7/20 8/9 8/29
lim
NashSutcliffe

Year/Month/Day
40

20 Figure 9. Temporal changes for the limit lead time in the

0 predicting results of observation blocks 1 to 7 with multiple
00
'10/5/21 106/10 20 6/3030 7/2040 50
8/9 60
8/29 training block data in the case of 64 h and Tmax
T time
Lead T (h)
Year/Month/Day
max 64 h.

6
 100 T
max
Predicting targe: Observation Block 8
Total Chl.a (g/l)
2 on observation data, this study proposed a real-time
:T =2h (R =0.550) :Observations
50
0
'11/10/28 11/7 11/17 11/27
Year/Month/Day
Observation Block 8 since the limit lead time changed to
32 h as opposed to the 32 h maximum lead time. Based
on this finding, predictive calculations were performed
once again after both the time history and the maximum
lead time were changed to 64 h. However, the time step
interval for the time-series was set at 2 h, and no changes
were made in the number of input-, intermediate-, and
output-layer neurons. Moreover, noise processing
targeted high-frequency components shorter than a 4-h
cycle. Figure 8 describes the relationship between the lead
time and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. Figure 9 shows
the temporal changes for the limit lead time in the
predicting results of observation blocks 1 to 7. As the
figure indicates, excellent calculation results were
obtained for the long lead time over 32 h as well. With
the exception of Observation Block 8 (Figure 10), the limit
lead time significantly improved to 3664 h. In particular,
the figure suggests that predications are feasible with the
same degree of accuracy for each lead time within the
limit lead time.
Figure 10. Temporal changes for the lead time of 2 h in the
predicting results of observation block 8 with multiple training
block data in the case of 64 h and 64 h.On the contrary, the
Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for Observation Block 8 fell
below 0.7 even when the lead time was 1 h. This shows
that there were no effects of reinforcement learning via
noise processing and supplemental training data.
Incidentally, approximately 50 cm of drawdown occurs
intermittently in the target pond due to water release that
takes place during the irrigation season from May to
September. However, approximately 2 m of significant
drawdown was observed as a large volume of water
release took place in Observation Block 8 due to repair
work conducted for bank protection. The algae class-
based Chlorophyll-a observation result in Figure 3 shows
a prominent increase in the cryptomonads and diatoms,
and in the dinoflagellates that were not observed
frequently during the same period in Observation Block
8. The species composition of the block was perceptibly
different from that of other observation blocks. In other
words, the total Chlorophyll-a in Observation Block 8 has
distinctive variation characteristics from the species
composition perspective and appears to share no
similarities with other observation blocks. Therefore, we
can infer that it was not possible to perform predictive
calculations targeting Observation Block 8 as well as
other blocks when learning took place using Observation
Block 8 as training data.
4. CONCLUSIONS
As an analysis method for the aquatic environment based
prediction of Chl.a with the chaos recurrent neural
network. Due to the introduction of noise processing,
which uses wavelet analysis and reinforcement learning
with supplemental training data, the accuracy of the
12/7 predictions improved significantly and the practicality of
the method proposed in this study increased, as
evidenced by the fact that the lead time exceeded 48 h.
Yet distinctive variation patterns emerge with regard to
changes in the algae species composition caused by
artificial effects during the period in which water level
management, which varies significantly from regular
management, takes place. Therefore, it was difficult to
conduct real-time predictions for chronological changes
that share no similarities with such learning data.
A technology that enables stable and highly precise on-
site monitoring of various water quality items, including
Chl-a, is currently available. The data analysis method
proposed by our research is considered highly effective
for the maintenance and management of water
environment based on valuable online water quality
monitoring data.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was partially supported by the FY 2012-
2014 JSPS Core-to-Core Program (B. Asia-Africa Science
Platforms) Collaborative Project for Soil and Water
Conservation in Southeast Asian Watersheds and
FY2011-2015 JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
(Project number 23380144).
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