Yom Institute of Economic Development(YIED)

MSc Programme in Project Planning& Management

Course Title: Disaster Risk and Value Management (PPM 542)

Instructor: Belay Tizazu (PhD)

Research associate at YIED

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 Who is who ? A very short Introduction

Instructor: Belay Tizazu (Dr)

Expertise: Ph D in Environment & Development, from Wageningen University of the Netherlands
MSc in Development Studies from AAU
Research gate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Belay_Mengistie/publications

Your name?
What is your scientific background (SS Vs NS)?
What company you are currently working?

Some of you will already be working in the field called DRM. Perhaps you are
someone with an applied economics background, such as agricultural economics.
Perhaps you have a technical specialisation, for example, in irrigation,
mathematics, or health care, business, social sciences . You may be a researcher,
consultant, project manager or policy-maker. Whoever you are, this course should
equip you with a better understanding of some of the broad themes of DRM and,
thus, provide a context within which to examine particular areas of DRM such as
those that you might be involved in. Outlined below are some very broad, and in
some cases, overlapping, themes in development thinking.

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 Course Description , Objective and Contents
The course deals with the basic concepts of DRM, identify a range of disasters, assessment tools, planning procedures & techniques:
implementation, monitoring & evaluation.
At the end of this session, participants will:

Define disaster, hazard, vulnerability and risk

Describe the types and the causes of disasters.

Discuss the magnitude and distribution of disasters

Explain different phases of disasters

Understand commonly used disaster management terminology
Be able to explain what is meant by and the difference between disaster preparedness, mitigation,
prevention and response
Begin to consider how these concepts in relation to project and how they vulnerability and capacity
impacts upon education at individual, community and system levels

Almost everyday, newspapers, radio and television Channels carry reports on disaster
striking several parts of the world. But what is a disaster?
Course content
Chapter 1: Understanding hazards & disasters
Chapter 2 Disaster/disaster risk theories & models
Chapter 3: Disaster risk management approaches
Chapter 4: Hazard/disaster risk/vulnerability assessment
Chap5: Managing /governing disaster/risk along the supply chain/value chain
 Key concepts & terminologies
Hazard Risk Mitigation
Prevention
Disaster Preparedness
Vulnerability Disaster Risk Management
Capacity Disaster Risk Reduction
Exposure Adaptation
Susceptibility Resilience /Resilient
Value chain /supply chain
Disaster Risk
Response
Recovery
 1.1. Introduction to DRM
The term disaster is coined from Latin words dis- & astro- , which
means away from the star or an event to be blamed on an unfortunate
astrological configuration.
In the past, disasters were seen as Acts of God.
Death is the just punishment for sin (Romans 6:23).
Does God use natural disasters to punish mankind today ?
Some people believe that God uses natural calamities to discipline
humankind. Others reject that notion. Still others do not know what to
believe.
He is the Creator and as such has the power and authority to control
earths natural forces (Revelation 4:11) . His actions are always in
harmony with his personality, qualities, and principles.
Eg Protection for obedient worshippers: God gave Noah detailed instructions
regarding the making of an ark for survival of the Flood. Noah and those who
were with him in the ark kept on surviving. Genesis 7:23.
 Introduction
These perspectives viewed disasters as a divine punishment for moral
misbehavior, rather than a consequence of human misuse of the environment.
In other words, disasters were accepted as external inevitable events
Until 1950, disaster risk was solely seen as caused by natural hazards
However, development in science & technology gradually started to question
these perceptions on disasters
From 1970, views which recognize the role played by human actions in
exacerbating hazards have emerged
But until 1990s most of the approach had over emphasized on extreme events &
humanitarian or emergency response, which was the dominant strategy in
reducing the impact of disasters.
This neglected the root causes & everyday social processes that influence
vulnerability & looked to see how this could be incorporated into long-term
development approaches
 Introduction .
Since 1990, the contemporary understandings has re-emphasized the
mutual interactions between nature & society

Hence, in contemporary understanding disaster is:

considered as a function of the characteristics & frequency of

hazards at a specified location,

the nature of the elements at risk (people, infrastructure, &

economic activities),
their inherent degree of vulnerability to the hazard &

their capacity to manage or reduce the hazards impact

 DRM cont
.
Acc. to UNISDR (2009), a disaster is a result from the combination of hazard,
vulnerability and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the potential
chances of risk.
A disaster happens when a hazard impacts on the vulnerable population and
causes damage, casualties and disruption.
E.g A given hazard flood, earthquake or cyclone which is a triggering event
along with greater vulnerability (inadequate access to resources, sick and old
people, lack of awareness etc) would lead to disaster causing greater loss to life
and property.
a serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread
human, material or environmental losses & impacts

which exceeds the ability of the affected community to cope using only its
own resources
 DRM cont

Therefore, we need to understand the three major components

namely hazard, vulnerability and capacity with suitable
examples to have a basic understanding of disaster management.

Hazards are always prevalent, but the hazard becomes a disaster

only when there is greater vulnerability and less of capacity to
cope with it.

In other words, the frequency or likelihood of a hazard and the

vulnerability of the community increases the risk of being
severely affected.
 Disaster risk management (DRM)

It is both an administrative and decision-making process for

addressing the potential adverse effects of accidental and business
losses on an organizations capability to accomplish business goals
and objectives. Risk management focuses on managing potential
losses capable of interfering with the service goals and objectives of
non-profit organizations.
It is the systematic process of using all available skills and
capacities to implement policies and strategies which reduce
vulnerability and strengthen the capacities of society and
communities to lessen the impacts of hazards.
This comprises all forms of activities, including structural and
non-structural measures to avoid (prevent) or to limit (mitigation,
preparedness and response) the adverse impacts of hazards, within
the broad context of sustainable development.
 1.2 The concept of hazards
A potentially damaging physical event,
phenomenon or human activity, which
may cause the loss of life or injury,
property damage, social & economic
disruption or environmental
degradation

Some examples of hazards are

earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,
cyclones, floods, landslides, droughts,
& other such events.
1. Earthquake is one of the most destructive natural hazard. They may occur
at any time of the year, day or night, with sudden impact and little warning.
They can destroy buildings and infrastructure in seconds, killing or injuring
the inhabitants. Earthquakes not only destroy the entire habitation but may
de-stabilize the government, economy and social structure of the country. It
is the sudden shaking of the earths crust.

2. Tsunami: The term Tsunami has been derived from a Japanese term Tsu
meaning 'harbor' and nami meaning 'waves'. Tsunamis are popularly called
tidal waves but they actually have nothing to do with the tides. These waves
which often affect distant shores, originate by rapid displacement of water
from the lake or the sea either by seismic activity, landslides, and volcanic
eruptions. What ever the cause may be sea water is displaced with a violent
motion and swells up, ultimately surging over land with great destructive
power. The effects of a tsunami can be unnoticeable or even destructive.

3. Cyclone is a region of low atmospheric pressure surrounded by high

atmospheric pressure resulting in swirling atmospheric disturbance
accompanied by powerful winds. They occur mainly in the tropical and
temperate regions of the world. Cyclones are called by various names in
different parts of the world. Eg Typhoons, Hurricanes Tornado etc
 Hazards classification
1. Natural Hazards: Natural processes or phenomena occurring in
the biosphere that may constitute a damaging event

Natural hazards can be classified according to their geological,

hydro-meteorological or biological origins

Natural hazards comprise phenomena such as earthquakes; volcanic

activity; landslides; tsunamis, tropical cyclones & other severe storms;
tornadoes & high winds; river floods & coastal flooding; wildfires &
associated haze; drought; sand/dust storms; insect infestations
Classification of hazards cont.
2. Anthropogenic hazards: These are human induced processes or
phenomena occurring in the biosphere that may constitute a damaging
event.
These hazards are the consequences of human activities which may
cause loss of life or injury, damage to property, social &
economical disruption or environmental degradation.
Examples of human-made hazards mostly include Technological
hazards: such as the toxicity of pesticides to fauna, accidental
release of chemicals or radiation from a nuclear plant. These arise
directly as a result of human activities.
Disasters have always been a result of human interaction with
nature, technology & other living entities. Sometimes unpredictable
& sudden, sometimes slow & persistent, various types of disasters
continually affect the way in which we live our daily lives. Human
beings as innovative creatures have sought new ways in which to
control/limit the devastating effects of disasters. However, for years
human conduct regarding disasters has been reactive in nature
 Anthropogenic Hazards Cont

Another classification includes quasi-natural hazards that arise

through the interaction of natural processes & human activities.

Environmental degradation is partly due to processes induced

by human behavior & activities in a way (sometimes combined
with natural hazards)

ED damages the natural resource base or adversely alters

natural processes or ecosystems. E.g.. desertification
 Classification of Natural Hazards
Origin
Hydro-meteorological hazards
Natural processes or phenomena
of atmospheric, hydrological or
oceanographic nature.
Geological hazards
Natural earth processes or
phenomena that include processes
of endogenous origin or tectonic
or exogenous origin, such as mass
movements.
Biological hazards
Processes of organic origin or or animal contagion & extensive -------infestations
those conveyed by biological
vectors, including exposure to
pathogenic micro-organisms,
toxins & bioactive substances.
PHENOMENA / EXAMPLES
Floods, debris & mudflows
Tropical cyclones, storm surges, wind,
rain & other severe storms, blizzards, lightning
Drought, desertification, wildfires, temperature
extremes, sand or dust storms
Permafrost, snow avalanches
Earthquakes, tsunamis
Volcanic activity & emissions
Mass movements, landslides, rockslides
liquefaction, sub-marine slides
Surface collapse, geological fault activity
Outbreaks of epidemic diseases, plant
 Classification of Anthropogenic Hazards
Origin Phenomena/Examples
Technological Hazards Industrial pollution, nuclear
Danger associated with technological or release & radioactivity, toxic
industrial accidents, infrastructure failures or waste, dam failure, transport,
certain human activities which may cause the industrial or technological
loss of life or injury, property damage, social & accidents (explosions, fires,
economic disruption or environmental spills).
degradation, sometimes referred to as
anthropogenic hazards.
Environmental Related Hazards Examples include land
Processes induced by human behavior & degradation, deforestation,
activities (sometimes combined with natural desertification, wild fires, loss
hazards) that damage the natural resource base of biodiversity, land, water &
or adversely alter natural processes or air pollution, climate change,
ecosystems. Potential effects are varied & may sea level rise & ozone
contribute to an increase in vulnerability & the depletion.
frequency & intensity of natural hazards.
 Natural Hazards Vs. Disasters
A disaster is the result of the impact of a natural or human
made hazard on a socio-economic system with a given
level of vulnerability, which prevents the affected society
from coping adequately with this impact

Natural hazards themselves do not necessarily lead to

disasters

It is only their interaction with people & their

environment that generates impacts, which may reach
disastrous proportions
 Hazards Vs. Disasters.
Many scholars have expressed diverse views on what exactly
constitutes a disaster

Some link the existence of a disaster to a specific amount of

losses sustained (e.g. number of people killed & injured)

others judge an event to be a disaster if a certain predefined

threshold is breached

some judge disasters on their geographical extent &

significance with regard to normal conditions,

while some express a disaster in terms of its monetary value

in losses
 More hazard terminology.
1. Secondary hazards
These are hazards that follow as a result of other hazard events

Examples of secondary hazards are: Building collapse; Dam

failure ; Fire; Hazardous material spill; Interruption of power/ water
supply/ communication/ transportation/ waste disposal; Landslide;
Tsunami (tidal wave); Water pollution
2. Chronic hazards
A group of hazards that do not stem from one event but arise from
continuos conditions

Exemples: ., famine, Resource degradation, pollution, & large-scale

toxic contamination, which accumulate over time
 1.3. Distribution of common hazards in the World

Despite the lethal reputation of earthquakes, epidemics &

famine, natural hazards, are not the greatest threat to humanity,

a much greater proportion of the worlds population find their lives

shortened by events that often go unnoticed: violent conflict, illnesses,
& hunger (Wisner et al., 2005)

Wisner et al (2005) distinguish between slow onset & rapid

onset hazard types

There is a need to connections between the risks people face &

the reasons for their vulnerability to hazards.
Top 10 countries by number of reported events in 2014

Source: Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2014: the numbers & trends
Hazard types & their contribution to deaths, 19001999
 Deaths during disasters, listed by cause, 19001999

The Great Leap Forward famine in China (19581961), & then low estimates put
the number of deaths at 13 million & higher ones at up to 30 million or more
Total number of reported natural disasters between 1900 & 2015

Source: Author computation from EM-DAT: OFDA/CRED International

Disaster Database-www.emdat.be
Total affected persons by reported natural disasters between 1960 & 2015

Source: Author computation from EM-DAT: OFDA/CRED International

Disaster Database-www.emdat.be
February 11, 2016 UNISDR 2016/05
The human cost of the hottest year on record - climate
change & Drove disasters El Nino worldwide in 2015

Source: UNISDR 2016

Source: UNISDR 2016
Source: UNISDR 2016
1.4 Common Hazards in Ethiopia
Ethiopia has a long recorded history of disasters of both natural and anthropogenic
origin. The common hazards causing disasters include drought, floods, landslides,
civil war, epidemics, and mass displacement.
Drought:
Ethiopia has faced severe drought 15 times since 1965. According to
the Food Security Risk Index for 2010, it is one of 10 countries
considered to be at extreme risk, and is ranked as having the 6th
highest risk out of 163 countries surveyed.

The pastoralist populations of the Afar and Somali Region continue to

be the most acutely food insecure in the country.

A significant proportion of the population in the northeastern

highlands is chronically food insecure.
In addition, people living along the riverbanks of major rivers of the
countries are at chronic risk of food insecurity including in the Awash
Since early 2008, the Ethiopian government has embarked on a process to award
millions of hectares (ha) of land to foreign and national agricultural investors.

According to the Oakland Institute team (2011) research shows that

at least 3,619,509 ha of land have been transferred to investors,
although the actual number may be higher. And most of the land is
transferred for floriculture production.

The Ethiopian government claims that these investments will allow

for much needed foreign currency to enter into the economy and will
contribute to long-term food security through the transfer of
technology to small-scale farmers.

Despite Ethiopias endemic poverty and food insecurity, there are no

mechanisms in place to ensure that these investments contribute to
improved food security. What do you say?.....
Our goal is not to alleviate hunger. I am a businessman. What I am doing is positive, cheaper
food, making employment. Cant understand how that can be negative. Foreign investor in
Gambella
 Drought..cont..
Drought
Droughts are a weather-
related natural hazard,
which can affect vast
regions for months or years
- have a significant impact
on a countrys economic
performance, particularly
food production.
-Contributed about 48.8 %
of Nationally reported
losses of lives (1990-2014)
 Common Hazards in Ethiopia Cont

Flood
Flooding is usually the
result of heavy or
continuous rain that
exceeds the absorptive
capacity of the soil & the
flow capacity of rivers,
streams & coastal areas.
Types of Flood :River flood,
Flash flood, Coastal flood

-contributed 38.9 % of NRL

1990-2014
 Common Hazards in Ethiopia Cont

Volcanoes

A volcano is an opening, or rupture, in the

planets surface or crust, which allows hot,
molten rock, ash & gases to escape from deep
below the surface.

Erta Ale (or Ertale or Irta'ale) is a continuously active basaltic shield

volcano in the Afar Region of northeastern Ethiopia. It is situated in
the Afar Depression, a badland desert area spanning the border with
Eritrea. Erta Ale is the most active volcano in Ethiopia.
Landslide in Ethiopia
A landslide is the movement of rock, debris or earth
down a slope. They result from the failure of the
materials which make up the hill slope and are driven
by the force of gravity. Landslides are known also as
landslips, slumps or slope failure
Eg Ethiopian trash dump landslide (koeshe
During a funeral service held at Gebrekristos
church in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mar 13, 2017
Others ; Such as Violent clashes
 1.5 Basic concepts in DRM
A disaster happen only when a hazard meets a vulnerable
situation or people.
People are vulnerable when they are unable to adequately
anticipate, withstand & recover from hazards.
Vulnerability refers to the characteristics of a person or a group
& their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope
with, resist & recover from the impact of a hazard.

There are many aspects of vulnerability arising from various

physical, social, economic, & environmental factors

E.g. poor design & construction of buildings, inadequate

protection of assets, lack of public information & awareness
Basic concepts in DRM
Risk: is a combination of the probability of occurrence of events & their
negative consequences.
Potential losses for some particular cause, place & period.
People do not necessarily share the same perceptions of the significance &
underlying causes of different risks.
A disaster is a function of the risk process.
It results from the combination of hazards, conditions of vulnerability &
insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the potential negative consequences
of risk.
Disaster risk (R) = Vulnerability (V) X Hazard (H)/Capacity (C) .
What is the difference between a 'hazard' and a 'risk'?
A hazard is something that can cause harm, e.g. electricity, chemicals,
working up a ladder, noise, a keyboard, stress, etc.
A risk is the chance, high or low,
that any hazard will actually cause
somebody harm.
Risk
Risk is a measure of the expected losses due to a hazard event
occurring in a given area over a specific time period. Risk is a function of
the probability of particular hazardous event and the losses each
would cause. The level of risk depends upon:-
Nature of the hazard
Vulnerability of the elements which are affected
Economic value of those elements

-A community/locality is said to be at risk when it is exposed to hazards and

is likely to be adversely affected by its impact. Whenever we discuss
disaster management it is basically disaster risk management.

- Disaster risk management includes all measures which reduce disaster

related losses of life, property or assets by either reducing the hazard or
vulnerability of the elements at risk.
Sources of risks and their characteristics

Figure : Risk sources and their characteristics

Risk assessment and evaluation

The overall task of risk management must include both an estimation of the
magnitude of a particular risk and an evaluation of how important to us the risk
is.
The process of risk management therefore has two parts:-

a) Risk Assessment. The scientific quantification of risk from data and

understanding of the processes involved.

b) Risk Evaluation. The social and political judgement of the importance of

various risks by the individuals and communities that face them.
 How is risk determined?
There are three essential components in the determination of risk,
each of which should be separately quantified:-

a) the hazard occurrence probability: the likelihood of experiencing

any natural or technological hazard at a location or in a region.
b) the elements at risk: identifying and making an inventory of
people or buildings or other elements which would be affected by
the hazard if it occurred, and where required estimating their
economic value.
c) the vulnerability of the elements at risk: how damaged the
buildings or people or other elements would be if they
experienced some level of Hazard.
 Disaster risks
Definitions of risk are commonly probabilistic in nature, relating
either to:

(i) the probability of occurrence of a hazard that acts to trigger a

disaster or series of events with an undesirable outcome, or

(ii) the probability of a disastrous outcome, combining the

probability of the hazard event with a consideration of the likely
consequences of the hazard (Smith, 1996; Stenchion, 1997; Downing et al., 2001;
Brooks, 2003;Jones & Boer, 2003).
DR also defined as the potential disaster losses, in lives,
health status, livelihoods, assets and services, which could
occur to a particular community or a society over some
specified future time period.
 Disaster risk equation
Disaster Risk = Hazard (H) x Vulnerability (V)
Capacity (C)
OR
Disaster Risk = f(H & V / C)
For many risks, mitigation can best be handled at the level
of the community because the exposure of the community
is greater than that of the individual, & because protection
often requires collective, sometimes large-scale action.

In the 20th century the scale of natural disasters (including

famine) has been much greater than that of technological
disasters (apart from wars), both in terms of the total
number of casualties & the numbers of high casualty
events.
 Disaster risk Cont...
It is:
the likelihood of some kind of harm (illness, injury, death,
property & environmental damage, disrupted lives &
livelihoods)
due to the interaction between hazards & conditions of
vulnerability.
Risk = H x V x elements at risk/capacity
Disaster Risk Cont ...
Disaster risk is also increased by vulnerability
the conditions & processes that increase the
susceptibility of a household, community or area
to the impacts of a hazard
Disasters are a complex mix of natural hazards & human action.

Human livelihoods are often earned in locations that combine opportunities with
hazards. E.g. flood plains provide cheap flat land for businesses & housing also
causes disaster risk.
Three variableshazard, exposure, and vulnerability are drive disaster risks.
Exposure. Population and economic growth has been the main driver for increasing
exposure of people and assets, pushing up the potential for loss every day.
Hazard. Population pressures and poor natural resource management, such as uncontrolled
deforestation and urban expansion, create environmental stress that can lead to more floods,
landslides, and other hazards. Hydrometeorological hazards are also likely to increase due to
climate change.
Vulnerability. Although it is difficult to measure how vulnerability is changing
globally, it is clear that the poorest in society are more vulnerable.
The Crunch model shows that a disaster happens only if a hazard
meets a vulnerable situation.
A disaster is a result from the combination of hazard, vulnerability
and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the potential
chances of risk.
 1.4 Major Characteristics of Disasters
There is an important distinction between an event & a disaster. Not all adverse
events trigger disasters;

There is no such thing natural disaster but there are natural hazards.

Disasters are described by socio-economic & environmental consequences of

adverse events.
Disasters may be sudden onset or creeping in nature.

Sudden/fast/abrupt onset (disasters triggered by earthquake, volcano,

tsunami, flood, tornado)
Creeping/slow/steady onset disasters (disasters triggered by drought,
famine, AIDS epidemic, land degradation)
 Characteristics Cont
Disasters are not always limited to a single hazard. Sometimes two or more
completely independent disasters occur at the same time.

Disasters can be categorized into international, national & local disasters

based on the scale of response required to manage its adverse consequences.
Disaster is defined as:
a serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human,
material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected
society to cope using only its own resources. ISDR, 2002.

A hazard becomes a disaster risk & then disaster when it coincides with a
vulnerable situation, when societies or communities are unable to cope with it
with their own resources & capacities.
 Characteristics of disasters
Hazard/
Disaster Risks X Vulnerability = Disaster

Crops that
Drought X = Life loss
depend on
rainfall

Flood X Poorly
=
Life & Property
constructed damage
house
 Concluding remarks on current trends of disaster
The number of disasters is increasing each year..

Overall number of people affected by disaster is rising..

Overall, disasters are becoming less deadly, but more costly( Disasters cause
major economic impact).
Poor countries are disproportionately affected by disasters( Disasters hurt poor
and vulnerable people the most).
Evidence suggests that the impact of disasters will continue to increase.
Mainstreaming DRM in development planning can reverse the current trend of
rising disaster impact.
Development planners at national, municipal, and local levels have a major role
to play in managing and reducing disaster risk.
The international development community must support countries to manage
growing disaster risks.
 Group Discussion/Exercise:

1. How do you define disaster, hazard, risk, disaster risk, ?

2. List and describe hazardous .
3. What are the types of disaster? Describe them.
4. Why do trends of disasters increase over time?
5.Discuss DRM practices that are taking place within your area
6.Were their shortcomings if you evaluate them within the lens
of the current thinking of disaster risk management?
Chapter 2. Disaster/disaster risk theories and models
 Importance of Theory in DRM
Before developing any disaster management plan, it is important to
understand what a disaster is and what the risks of disaster in a particular
place.
Theory/Models: help to enhance our understanding through simplifying
complex and often interrelated phenomena.
Is a formal set of idea that is intended to explain why some thing happen
or exists.
Is explanation that results from extensive research, tested & debated over
periods of time
The Pressure and release model (PAR model):
The Access model
Related-theories
- Resilience Theory
- Normal Accident Theory
- Chaos theory
 1. The Pressure And Release model (PAR model)
Pressures: Vulnerable conditions exist because of pressures acting on individuals
and communities. We might not be aware of these pressures and they are often
difficult to challenge.
Pressures are structures and processes that create vulnerable conditions. We
need to identify:
who is responsible for creating vulnerable conditions. These can be organisations
(such as local government departments, religious groups or commercial companies) or
individuals (such as a local landowner). These are called the structures.
how structures affect the vulnerable conditions, such as through policies and
practices. These are called the processes.
PAR is a simple tool for showing how disasters occur when natural hazards
affect vulnerable people
The basis for the PAR idea is that a disaster is the intersection of two opposing
forces:
processes generating vulnerability
the natural hazard event (or sometimes a slowly unfolding natural process)
The PAR model suggest that the hazard event is isolated and distinct from the
conditions which create vulnerability.
Collaborative learning. What structures create vulnerable conditions in our local area?
What processes create vulnerable conditions in our local area?
 Vulnerable conditions
Some elements are at risk because they are unable to withstand the impact of a
hazard. This vulnerability might be:
Economic such as fragile livelihoods; no credit and savings facilities
Natural such as dependence on very few natural resources.
Constructed such as structural design; location of houses on an unstable slope
Individual such as lack of skills or knowledge; lacking opportunity due to
gender; being old or very young; living with HIV or AIDS.
Social such as a disorganised or fragmented society; bad leadership.
Example, The spiritual context depends on how we relate to God. It relates to
peoples individual spirituality and to the presence of religious institutions at local or
national level. It influences the way people act and therefore influences vulnerability
to disaster. The church is part of this spiritual context. There are many ways in which
the church can help to reduce vulnerability. However, in some places, church
practices could be increasing vulnerability. For example, costly marriage or funeral
ceremonies could increase economic vulnerability.
What is the spiritual context in which we live?
How do spiritual beliefs affect peoples attitude to disaster?
How do spiritual beliefs affect peoples attitude to other people in times of disaster?
Are there any spiritual practices that increase vulnerability?
In what ways could the church reduce vulnerability in our community?
 Vulnerability
Vulnerability may be defined as The extent to which a community, structure,
services or geographic area is likely to be damaged or disrupted by the impact of
particular hazard, on account of their nature, construction and proximity to
hazardous terrains or a disaster prone area.
Vulnerability is the degree to which someone or something
can be affected by a particular hazard and depends on a
number of factors and processes:
physical (unstable locations, closer proximity to hazards,
fragile unprotected houses).
economic (no productive assets, limited income earning
opportunities, poor pay, single income revenue, no savings
and insurance).
social (low status in society, gender relations, fewer
decision-making possibilities, oppressive formal and
informal institutional structures, and political, economic and
social hierarchies).
 Vulnerability
The conditions determined by
physical, social, economic, and
environmental factors or processes,
which increase the susceptibility of a
community to the impact of hazards.

Vulnerability also defined as

Exposure to risk and stress and the
lack of ability to cope with the
consequences of risk.

It is important to distinguish between

the symptoms and the causes of
vulnerability.
 Vulnerability is not static

Progression of vulnerability

Root Dynamic Unsafe

Hazards pressures conditions Disaster
causes
Root Causes
Dynamic Pressures Unsafe Conditions
Economic How the vulnerability of
Social Processes and activities
population is expressed
Demographic that translate effects of
in conjunction with
Political/ideological root causes temporally
a hazard
processes that affect and spatially into unsafe
allocation, utilization conditions
- Living in hazardous
& distribution of locations
resources E.g: Rapid urbanization,
The function of the violent conflict, foreign
-Being unable to afford
state and distribution debt and structural
safe buildings
of power adjustment programs,
Natural conditions rural-urban migration,
- Engaging in dangerous
Disease outbreaks, etc..
livelihoods
 Vulnerability triggering factors
One needs to consider not just the fact that people live in
flimsy (fragile) houses in hazardous locations (e.g. flood
prone areas),
but why they live there, which could be the product of such
forces as:-
Poverty
Rapid & unplanned urbanization; population growth
displacement due to economic development
Environmental degradation
Climate change
 Cont
Poverty
Disasters hit poor people the hardest
53% of affected people by disasters
live in developing Countries
Over 95% of the people killed by
disasters lived in middle and low-
income countries,
Extensive research shows the poor
are more likely to occupy dangerous,
less desirable locations,
An estimated 1 billion people
worldwide live in slums and shanty
towns,
which are vulnerable to disasters.
 Poverty
Poverty is considered as of two types:-
Relative poverty: as the name indicates, it is relative and it is everywhere in the
world.
Absolute poverty: a poverty situation where people are not getting the minimum
requirement to live in terms of shelter, food and cloth.
People with absolute poverty have different characteristics:-
A) Physical weakness like a measurement children weight,height,age
B) Vulnerability to a continued deterioration
C) Powerlessness/ voiceless in front of other people, government, institutions etc
The poor can explain the poverty as he/she felt. The world bank tried to assess
how the poor express or feel poverty.
Different individuals from different countries expressed poverty as follow:-
Russian poor: define poverty as a daily worries about lack of money
Bangladesh poor: wellbeing is defined as to have life free of anxiety
Jamaican poor: define it as lack of self confidence
Kenyan poor : graphic expression: The poor invited the researcher in to his rooms
and kitchen and shows his roofs, walls, kitchen equipments and said what you
see is poverty.
Ethiopian poor: define poverty to be skin, to be pale, a situation that makes an
individual older than his age.
 Cont
Environmental degradation

Communities can all too often

increase the probability and severity
of disasters by destroying the
forests, coral reefs and wetlands that
might have protected them.
 Cont

Rapid & unplanned urbanization

An estimated 1 billion people worldwide live

in slums and shanty towns, which are
vulnerable to disasters.

Significant proportion of the urban population

lives in marginal settlements or crowded
slums with inadequate access to clean water,
sanitation, schools, transport and other public
services
 Cont
Climate change

Increased drought will lead to

land degradation, Crop damage and
reduced yields; livestock deaths and
wildfire risks will increase, and

people dependent on agriculture will

face food and water shortages,
malnutrition and increased disease,
with many being forced
to migrate.
 Cont
Legal/political issues, such as
lack of land rights;
discrimination;
government macro-economic and other
policies; and
other political features, such as the failure of
government and civil society institutions to
protect citizens.
Cause and effect in the Disaster Pressure model
The most important root causes that give rise to
vulnerability (and which reproduce vulnerability over
time) are economic, demographic and political
processes.
These affect the allocation & distribution of
resources, among different groups.

Root causes reflect the exercise and distribution of

power in a society.

Dynamic pressures are processes and activities that

translate the effects of root causes both temporally and
spatially into unsafe conditions.
 These are more contemporary or immediate,
conjectural manifestations of general underlying
economic, social and political patterns.

Dynamic pressures channel the root causes into

particular forms of unsafe conditions that then have to
be considered in relation to the different types of
hazards facing people.

These dynamic pressures include epidemic disease,

rapid urbanisation, current (as opposed to past)
wars and other violent conflicts,
 Conceptual frame-works of vulnerability:
The Double Structure of Vulnerability
Vulnerability: external- and internal side;
External side relates to: exposure to risks and
shocks
PEA:e.g. social inequalities, assets control by upper
classes;
HEP: population dynamics and capacities to
manage the environment
ET: relates vulnerability to the incapacity of people
to obtain or manage assets via legitimate economic
means
Internal side relates to :capacity to anticipate,
cope with, resist and recover from the impact
of a hazard
C&CTh: control of assets and resources, capacities
to manage crisis situations and resolve conflicts ;
ATA: how people act as react freely or as a result of
societal, economical or governmental constraints;
MAA: mitigation of vulnerability via access to assets.

Bohles conceptual Framework for

vulnerability analysis.
Vulnerability and its components (Cannon, 1994:21)
 Applications of the PAR model
Served as the basis for community based self-study of
vulnerability and capability

communities and groups adopt the concept of vulnerability

to inquire into their own exposure to damage and loss
(Wisner 2003a).

The concept of vulnerability thus became a tool in the

struggle for resources that are allocated politically. In
some parts of Latin America and southern Africa.

such community-based vulnerability assessment has

become quite elaborate, utilising a range of techniques to
map and make inventories, seasonal calendars and
disaster chronologies
2. The Access Model
To reduce the risk of disaster, the factors that cause risk should be
addressed. This means working against all the components of the PAR
model. Action may be necessary at local, national and even international
levels.
It is an expanded analysis of the principal factors in the PAR model that relate to
human vulnerability and exposure to physical hazard H D V

Focuses on the process by which the natural event impacts upon people and their
responses.

It is a more magnified analysis of how vulnerability is initially generated by

economic, social and political processes, and what then happens as a disaster
unfolds.

The Access model indicates more specifically and in more detail how conditions
need to change to reduce vulnerability and thereby improve protection and the
capacity for recovery.
Access model: analysis of the principal factors
Capacity may include physical, institutional, social or
economic means as well as skilled personnel or collective
attributes such as leadership and management.
 3. Related theories:
3.1 Resilience Theory
Resilience is derived from the Latin word resilio, meaning
to jump back (Klein et al., 2003).
Resilience was selected the global development buzzword of
2012 by an aid industry website.
Defn: the capacity to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness
the ability [of a system] to cope with change
The term is applied in a number of fields, especially
disaster management
The adoption of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005
2015also known as The Hyogo Declarationby the
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk
Reduction (UNISDR) is a positive move in underscoring
the concept.
attention is on what affected communities can do for
themselves and how best to strengthen them
 Resilience theory.
The concept of resilience helps us to obtain a complete
understanding of risk and vulnerability.

It fills a void by addressing the soft perspective of vulnerability

and allows us to rethink the prevalent risk = hazard x
vulnerability equation.

Source: Bn/Wood/Newsham/Davis 2012

 Resilience

Adaptive capacity: is the capacity of a system (human or natural)

to adapt if the environment where the system exists is changing .It
plays a prominent role in reducing community vulnerability.

Absorptive capacity: is a firms ability to identify, assimilate,

transform and apply valuable external knowledge.

Transformative capacity: is a special form of adaptive capacity

that, when required, enable a community to intentionally initiate
transformative action and /or to navigate their way through an
active or forced transformation. The ability to create a
fundamentally new systems that the shock will no longer have any
impact

When referring to people, the essence of resilience centres on
quick recovery from shock, illness or hardship.

A person who bounces backunchangedfrom exposure to

stresses and shocks (Vickers & Kouzmin, 2001).

Disaster resilience is seen as the shield, shock absorber or

buffer that moderates the outcome to ensure benign or small-
scale negative consequences.

Indeed, the goal of disaster risk management is to guarantee

minimal loss of life and livelihoods and to allow the affected
community or system to return to normal within the shortest
possible time.
 Capacity

Capacity can be defined as resources, means and

strengths which exist in households and communities and
which enable them to cope with, withstand, prepare for,
prevent, mitigate or quickly recover from a disaster.

It is the combination of all the strengths and resources

available within a community, society or organization that
can reduce the level of risk or the effects of disaster.

It may include physical, institutional, social, or

economic means as well as skilled personal or
collective attributes such as leadership and
management.
 Capacity cont
Ability of an affected community to deal with a hazard
Existing coping mechanisms
Indigenous knowledge
Resilience of a community
Expressed in terms of:
social (the family),
political (decision-making ability),
economical (wealth) and
environmental (biodiversity, conservation and natural
resource) aspects
 Resilience

The capacity of a system , community or society potentially

exposed to hazards to adapt by resisting or changing
order to reach and maintain all acceptable level of
functioning and structure.

This is determined the degree to which the social system is

capable of organizing itself

to increase its capacity for learning from past

disasters for better future protection and to improve
risk reduction measures.
 Resilience Cont
The ability of a person or a group to anticipate, cope
with, resist, and recover from the impact of a
hazard/disaster.

Resilience refers to a persons or a communitys ability

to bounce back or recover after adversity or hard
times, and to be capable of building positively on these
adversities.
 Cont
Resiliency often is related to 3 different characteristics:

The magnitude of the shock that a HH or community

can absorb and remain viable

The degree to which the HH or community is capable

of self organization after the exposure to the hazard
to maintain an acceptable level of functioning and
structure

The degree to which a HH or community can learn

from these difficult circumstances and adapt
 Cont
In a resilient HH or community, change has the potential to
create new opportunities

Vulnerable HH and communities have a propensity to suffer

from exposure to external shocks and stresses because they
are sensitive to such exposures

Adaptive capacity is an aspect of resilience--it reflects

learning, flexibility and the development of generalizable
responses to a broad range of challenges
 Cont
Community resilience refers to individual and collective
capacity to respond to adversity and change[2]

When a community is resilient, it can respond to crises

in ways that strengthen community bonds, resources,
and the communitys capacity to cope[3]

[2]Healy, K., Hampshire, A. & Ayres, L. (2003). Engaging communities for sustainable change: Promoting
resilience. Available on-line: www.bensoc.org.au/research/engaging_communities.
[3]Chenoweth & Stehlik cited in Healy, K., Hampshire, A. & Ayres, L. (2003). Engaging communities for
sustainable change: Promoting resilience. Available on-line:
www.bensoc.org.au/research/engaging_communities.html
 Measuring vulnerability/resilence.
Different types of vulnerability: physical, social, economical,
environmental;
Different levels of scale. Different levels of scale require
often different methods.
E.g. in the analytical models the data requirement
increases with more complex methods;
Different hazard types. Not all methods of vulnerability
quantification are used for the different hazard types.
Different hazard intensities & indicators for hazard intensity.
 Vulnerability indices:
based on indicators of vulnerability; mostly no direct relation with the
different hazard intensities. These are mostly used for expressing social,
economic and environmental vulnerability;
Vulnerability table:
the relation between hazard intensity and degree of damage can also be
given in a table.
Vulnerability curves:
that are constructed on the basis of the relation between hazard intensities
and damage data
Relative curves: they show the percentage of property value as the
damaged share of the total value to hazard intensity.
Absolute curves: show the absolute amount of damage depending on the
hazard intensity; i.e. the value of the asset is already integrated in the
damage function;
Fragility curves:
provide the probability for a particular group of elements at risk to be in or
exceeding a certain damage state under a given hazard intensity.
Methods of measuring physical vulnerability
 Key characteristics of vulnerable groups in society are social class,
caste, ethnicity, gender; disability; age and seniority.
Gender and vulnerability
Gender is a cross cutting issue which can qualify all vulnerability
dimensions.
Unequal gender relations arising from patriarchal structures can
create new vulnerabilities or worsen existing ones for women and
girls in disasters.
Men and women have different entitlements/access to resources
and abilities to reduce their vulnerability through various coping
and adaption practices
The concept of resilience helps us to obtain a complete
understanding of risk and vulnerability.
It fills a void by addressing the soft perspective of vulnerability
and allows us to rethink the prevalent risk = hazard x
vulnerability equation
 3.2 Normal accident theory
Living with High-Risk Technologies is a 1984 book by Yale
sociologist Charles Perrow, which provides a detailed analysis of
complex systems conducted from a social sciences perspective. It was
the first to "propose a framework for characterizing complex
technological systems such as air traffic, marine traffic, chemical
plants, dams, and especially nuclear power plants according to their
riskiness".
Perrow says that multiple and unexpected failures are built into
society's complex and tightly-coupled systems. Such accidents are
unavoidable and cannot be designed around.
Perrow's argument based on human error, big accidents tend to
escalate(worsen) , and technology is not the problem, the
organizations are. Each of these principles is still relevant today.
Perrow identifies three conditions that make a system likely to be
susceptible to Normal Accidents. These are:
The system is complex
The system is tightly coupled and The system has catastrophic potential
 3.3 Chaos theory
Chaos theory, which emerged in the 1970s, has
impacted several aspects of real-life in its short life
thus far and continues to impact all sciences.

The idea that even the slightest change in the starting

point can lead to greatly different results or outcomes.

Strange attractor: A dynamic kind of equilibrium

which represents some kind of trajectory upon which
a system runs from situation to situation without ever
settling down.
 Chapter 3:

Disaster risk management approaches

 3.1 Disaster risk management
Disaster risk management can be defined as:

the range of activities designed to maintain control over

disasters & emergency situations &

to provide a framework for helping at-risk persons to avoid

or recover from the impact of the disaster.

It can be further defined as the body of policy &

administrative decisions & operational activities that are
appropriate to the various stages of a disaster at all levels

It further focuses on the reduction of risk & vulnerability in

communities most at risk.
 Contd
Disaster risk management is a continuous, integrated multi-
sectoral, & multidisciplinary process of planning &
implementation of measures aimed at preventing or
reducing the risk of disasters;

It also involves mitigating the severity or consequences of

disasters; emergency preparedness; & rapid & effective
response to disasters & post-disaster recovery &
rehabilitation.

Disaster management entails the integration of a multitude

of activities & functions in order to safeguard lives &
property against possible hazards.
 3.1.1. DRM in Ethiopia
For many years, efforts were on post-disaster response,
recovery, & rehabilitation rather than on pre-disaster
preparedness & prevention measures

Disaster management was characterized by:

short-term relief-oriented, single hazard approach -more
heavily on drought
Limited collaborative relationship among actors in disaster
management
Minimal community involvement
Limited emphasis to other hazards (namely, crop pests, flood,
disease epidemics, war, civil conflicts ) to which citizens are
vulnerable
 Contd

In recent years, the Ethiopian disaster management system has

shown a transformation from one of response & recovery to DRM
(mitigation, prevention, preparedness, response, & rehabilitation)

The policy formulated in 1993 underscored the importance of

integrated actions to mitigate and/or prevent the root causes of
drought disaster to which Ethiopians have repeatedly been
vulnerable

The following are some of the remarkable measures that have

been taken since 1995 in the efforts to transform DRM approach.
 Contd
Institutional commitment & arrangements
Organizational/institutional structures from national level to local
levels
Establishment of multi-sectoral technical & steering committees
including disaster management focal bodies in key sector offices
(ministry of agriculture, health, water resource development).
Community participation to take the initiative towards community-
based disaster management.
Effort has also been made to link disaster management to the
country's macro development programs ;
 DRM in Ethiopia (cont.)
Efforts to integrate relief/ assistance with development to enhance
the coping capacities of the population through the creation of
assets in the affected areas
Ethiopia's Food Security Strategy (FSS) is also a critical element of
pre-drought disaster prevention programs
Productive safety net programme (PSNP) which targets
communities in drought prone is a good effort in addressing
underlying causes of food insecurity
Small-scale irrigation & water harvesting, & voluntary
resettlement showed to have benefited millions of people
3.1.2 Paradigm shift in disaster risk management

From To

Managing hazard events Managing disaster risks

Disaster/emergency
Disaster Risk Management
management

Primary focus on Primary focus on reducing

Relief & Response disaster risks & prompt
Sustainable development
 Paradigm shift
Top-down and centralized Bottom-up and
disaster management participatory disaster
risk reduction

Disasters as merely a Disaster mainly a

function of physical reflection of peoples
hazard vulnerability.

Integrated approach to
Focus on disaster genuine social and human
response and anticipation development to reduce
disaster risk
 DRM cont..

Disaster Risk Management is an organised action on:

Pre-disaster or ...proactive Post-disaster or

reactive
activities
Disaster event
Recovery/
Prevention Mitigation Preparedness
rehabilitation

Relief/response
 DRM Cont
In all of the stages, DRM includes a range of activities that
contribute to:

increasing capacities & reducing immediate & long-term

vulnerabilities to prevent, or at least minimize, the
damaging impact in a community.
 3.2 Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

Disaster risk reduction emphasizes a new global thinking in

the management of disasters & disaster risks.
Disaster risk reduction can be seen as the systematic
development & application of policies, strategies &
practices to:
minimize vulnerabilities & disaster risks throughout a
society;

to avoid (prevent) or to limit (mitigation & preparedness)

adverse impacts of hazards within the broad context of
sustainable development.
 DRR
DRR is the conceptual framework of elements considered
with the possibilities to minimize vulnerabilities & disaster
risks throughout the society,
to avoid (prevention) the adverse impacts of hazardous
events within the broad context of Sustainable Development
DRR framework is composed of the following fields of actions:
Risk awareness & assessment (hazard,
vulnerability/capacity)
Knowledge development (education, training, research, &
information)
Public commitment & institutional frameworks
(organizational, policy, legislation, & community actions)
Application of measures (environmental management,
land use planning, protection of facilities, application of
science & technology, partnership & networking, &
financial instruments)
 DRR Cont
Disaster reduction strategies include:

disaster risk assessments- combining hazard, vulnerability &

capacity assessments;
strengthening of institutional capacities & operational abilities

the assessment of the vulnerability of critical facilities, social &

economic infrastructure,
the use of effective early warning systems, &
the application of many different types of scientific strategy &
technical & other abilities
 Why DRR?
Because incidence of disasters & number of people
affected are increasing!

Disaster affected 2 billion people in the 1990s, triple of the

number affected in 1970s, climate change is increasing
the incidence of disaster.

Disasters are costly. The global economic loss caused

by disaster increased from US $138 billion in the 1970s to
US$ 628 billion in the 1990s.

Disasters increase poverty. In Africa disasters are both

causes & consequences of poverty.

In Ethiopia during the last 20 years, 78% of rural

households had been hit by harvest failure
 Why DRR? Cont.
Inappropriate disaster response aggravates the problem

In some instances, emergency response had led to increasing risk

level of affected population through exposure to other hazards.
E.g. flooding

Disasters pose a significant threat to development

governments usually reallocate development funds to meet the cost

of relief operation.

Donors spend billions of dollars in response that would have been

used for development.
Investment in disaster risk reduction is beneficial !

Experience in Asia shown that investment of one US dollar in

DRR will translate into cost-saving of up to ten US dollars in
subsequent disaster response.

www.undp.org/cpr/we_do/disaster_global_risk_id.shtmlwww.gripwe
b.org
3.3: Disaster Risk Management /DRR Approaches
1. Prevention
Prevention is defined as those activities taken to prevent a natural
phenomenon or potential hazard from having harmful effects on either
people or economic assets.
Disaster prevention refers to measures taken to eliminate the root-
causes that make people vulnerable to disaster.
Measures designed to provide permanent protection or reduce the
intensity of a hazardous event to a level that does not cause a
disaster
Covers activities designed to impede the occurrence of a disaster event
and/or prevent such an occurrence from having harmful effects on
communities & facilities.
E.g. Safety standards for industries, flood control measures, & land use
regulations.
Poverty alleviation & assets redistribution schemes such as land reform,
provision of basic needs & services such as preventive health care,
education, etc
Prevention

The outright (complete) avoidance of

adverse impacts of hazards & related
disasters
2. Preparedness
Preparedness: Are the measures that ensure the organized mobilization of personnel, funds,
equipments, and supplies within a safe environment for effective relief.
Disaster preparedness is building up of capacities before a disaster situation prevails inorder
to reduce impacts.
Its measures include inter alia(among others) , availability of food reserve, emergency reserve
fund, seed reserve, health facilities, warning systems, logistical infrastructure, relief manual,
and shelves of projects

Adequate preparedness is essential, as risk can never be completely eliminated or reduced.

Preparedness through early warning systems save lives and protect livelihoods and is one of the most
cost-effective ways to reduce the impact of disasters.
Advance measures taken to predict, respond to & manage a hazard event measures that prepare
people to react appropriately before, during & after it.

Involves measures taken in anticipation of a disaster to ensure that appropriate & effective actions are
taken before, during & in the aftermath.

It attempts to limit the impact of a disaster by structuring the response & affecting a quick & orderly
reaction to the disaster.

E.g The formation & capacity building of an organization to oversee(manage) & implement warning
systems, evacuation, rescue & relief;
formulation of a disaster implementing plan; stockpiling of supplies for immediate mobilization;
emergency communications; training of volunteers, community drills & simulation exercises; public
education & awareness. reforesting an unstable slope to prevent landslides
 Preparedness
The knowledge & capacities developed by governments, professional response
& recovery organizations, communities & individuals to effectively anticipate,
respond to, & recover from, the impacts of likely, imminent or current hazard
events or conditions.
Early Warning Systems: The provision of timely & effective information
through identified institutions that allows individuals/community exposed to a
hazard to take action, to avoid or reduce their risk & prepare for effective
response.

It includes a chain of concerns, namely:-

understanding & mapping the hazard;
monitoring & forecasting impending events;
processing & disseminating understandable warnings to political authorities
& the population &
undertaking appropriate & timely actions in response to the warnings
Global Coordination in Hazard Detection and Forecasting to Support Multi-
Hazard Early warning system

Global Observing System

Coordinated Satellite System

Global Data Processing and Forecasting System

Global Telecommunication System

Communication and
Dissemination

National Meteorological
and Hydrological Services

Media General Private

public Government and sector
civil defence
authorities
 4
1
What is National to local
governments
Community
an Effective Preparedness
EWS?
supported by 5
DRR plans, legislationfeedback
COORDINATION AMONG 5 and coordination
NATIONAL SERVICES mechanisms
2
Meteorological
3
3
Hydrological
3
warnings
Geological feedback
5
Marine
 National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and
Effective Early Warning Systems coordination mechanisms are critical to ensure emergency planning
and response involving 4 technical components
National Example: Cyclone Preparedness Programme
in Bangladesh
 3. Mitigation
Measures taken well in advance of a hazard event/alert to
minimize vulnerability of communities/households to a
known/expected threat.

It is taken to minimize the destructive & disruptive effects of

hazards & thus lessen the magnitude of a disaster.

Measures range from physical/ structural ( flood defenses, safe

building design) to non-structural aspects (legislation, training,
organizing disaster volunteers, public awareness, food security
programs, & advocacy on development issues).
 Mitigation
The lessening or limitation of
the adverse impacts of
hazards & related disasters.
4. Relief/response

Involves measures taken to

alleviate immediate hardship
& meet basic needs for shelter,
water, sanitation, health care..

Also includes search, rescue

& protection of those affected.
 Response
The provision of emergency
services & public assistance
during or immediately after a
disaster in order to save lives,
reduce health impacts, ensure
public safety & meet the basic
subsistence needs of the people
affected.
5. Recovery & rehabilitation

Process undertaken by a
disaster-affected community to
fully restore itself to its pre-
disaster level of functioning &
which enables it to become even
more disaster-resistant.

E.g planting/harvest of drought

resistant crops storm/cyclone
-proofing buildings, roads,
railways, schools & clinics
 Recovery
The restoration, & improvement
where appropriate, of facilities,
livelihoods & living conditions of
disaster affected communities,
including efforts to reduce disaster
risk factors.
 Disaster Risk Management Framework
Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015

Governance and
Organizational Coordination and
Cooperation

Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer

Historical hazard data, PREPAREDNESS: Insurance

analysis and changing
hazard trends
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk quantification
early warning systems,
emergency planning and Alternative Risk Transfer
response capacities mechanisms
MITIGATION AND Other emerging products
PREVENTION:
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. building
resilient infrastructure)

Information and Knowledge Sharing

Education and training
 There has been global disaster/disaster risk management frameworks and
movements mainly since the 1980s.

Sustainable Development (1987) - Our Common Future,

Environment and Development (1992)- Rio de Janeiro in 1992 (the so-called

Earth Summit) - Agenda 21st agreements on climate change and biodiversity

Kyoto Protocol (1997): Reduction of Green House Gases- reduction of CO2,

CH4, CFCs, halons, N2O, and peroxyacetyinitrate

World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg (2002), the

commitment to sustainable development was reaffirmed
 3.1. 4 . DRM approaches: a review
1. Sustainable Development approach
SD multi-dimensional approach that highlights the
current needs and future limitations that have
direct relationships with disaster risks and its pillars.
As disasters cause harm and damage to people, property,
infrastructure, economies & the environment, the goals of
sustainable development will be in danger
Disaster recovery & rehabilitation efforts require
enormous funds harm(affect) development
 Therefore, it is important that disaster prevention/mitigation
programs be an integral part of developmental program.

efforts to enhance the capacities of communities should cope with

systems at various levels and sectors towards self-reliance and
self-sufficiency in managing disasters effectively.

Understanding & identifying various types of vulnerabilities

(human, social, economic, and environmental) as well as the
nature of natural hazards are essential components of such efforts.
 The SD view can facilitate the adoption of DRR
program at local level that incorporates the
application of both structural & non-structural
measures

As a result, investments & efforts for social &

economic development can be protected & sustained
through this approach.
The key strength of this approach is:

The need to enhance the capacities of communities &

coping strategies at various levels & sectors towards
self-reliance & self-sufficiency !
2. Disasters are human-made not natural (
Development failure)
The characteristics of a disaster became more associated
with its physical impact than with the natural hazard.
Interest grew in the design and implementation of ways to
mitigate losses through physical and structural measures
to reduce hazards or to increase the resistance of
structures.
Natural disasters are intimately connected to the
processes of human development.
 Natural hazards like tropical storm & earthquakes,
however intense, inevitable or unpredictable,
translate to disasters only to the extent that the
society is unprepared to respond & unable to cope,
and consequently, severely affected.

Disasters triggered by natural hazards put

development gains at risk. At the same time, the
development choices made by individuals,
communities & nations can pave the way for unequal
distributions of disaster risks.
 When disaster events happen, whether caused by natural
phenomena or human activities, is believed to be a
disaster as if the community or society affected fails to
cope (that is a development failure).
Thus, the vulnerability of communities and their assets to
the impact of natural hazards is to a significant extent
determined by human action or inaction.
Even the occurrence of recent climatic anomalies
(irregularities) attributed to global climate change is
traced to human activities as the emission of unmanaged
and extremely high green house gases (CO2, methane).
 This school of thought sees disasters as the collapse or
failure/inadequacy of development activities & the result of
human activities that exacerbate the existing natural hazards

Therefore, disasters are essentially human-made as

development failure

This notion of disasters as principally human-made and not

attributable to outcome presents a challenge to practitioners to
reconsider the common use of natural and human-made in
typifying disaster incidents.
disasters can be prevented or their impact on peoples &
communities mitigated,

& that human action or inaction to high risk & vulnerability to

natural hazards could spell the difference!
3). DRM cycle

It is a concept applied in an integrated approach

towards a disaster event in which the management
cycle can be carried out through a sequence of
activities/ phases, each being responsible or designed
to address a specific type of intervention
 The relationship between relief & development as a
cycle reinforces the fact that disasters, however
inevitable, could be managed through adequate
planning and preparedness for response

According to this paradigm, integrating the 4 aspects

into all parts of the development process contributes
to sustainable development & lessens post-disaster
loss of life, property & financial bankruptcy

successful DRM requires the implementation of all

phases of the disaster management cycle as a
continuum approach
 Concluding Remarks
The various disaster risk management/reduction frameworks are
contributing a lot for a countrys DRM/DRR policy and strategy
design, development, and implementation.

The hazards and disaster risks of the world are also threats for
Ethiopia directly/indirectly; in the long/short term. Thus,
materialization and following those frameworks is an
indispensible for DRM/DRR to be effective.

The essence and spirits of the frameworks indicate how the issues
of disaster are really the major concerns of the international
community.
 Chapter 4
4. Hazard/disaster risk/vulnerability assessment
4.1 Hazard assessment defined
Identification of hazards, including estimation of probabilities (or
frequency) of occurrence of various hazards of different intensities.
Specification of location (impact area) and characteristics (nature
and behavior).
The terms hazard, hazard assessment, hazard mapping, risk, risk
assessment and many other risk management concepts have been
used interchangeably to mean different things and have been used
differently to mean the same thing.
This blurring of meanings makes it necessary to provide working
definitions for the terms and concepts. One must be sure to
understand the definition of these words when using various
reports and publications pertaining to risk management, hazard
management, etc. The following are definitions of words
commonly used in risk management programs
Hazard assessment cont..
Hazard Mapping
It is the process of identifying and displaying the spatial variation of hazard events
or physical conditions (e.g. potential ground shaking, steep slopes, flood plains,
hazardous materials sites, climate zones, etc).
Important variables involved in mapping hazards and interpreting hazard maps
include the size (scale) of the area to be mapped, the availability and completeness
of data, the cost of collecting and mapping data, etc.
Hazard Assessment
It is an identification of the probability or chance of an event occurring in a
particular area based on geological evidence, historical data, and projections derived
from theoretical analysis. Some hazard assessment results can be mapped, such as
potential frequency and severity of ground shaking.
Risk Identification
Focuses on four tasks:
(1) Clarifying stakeholder risk management goals and objectives;
(2) Identifying what exposures are necessary to accomplish those goals &objectives;
(3) Identifying potential hazards; and
(4)Assessing the vulnerability of identified exposures to the potential hazards.
Hazard assessment cont

Steps in Hazard Assessment

1. Social map
this includes the infrastructure, settlement patterns, resources (farmland,
water, grazing land, forests etc), etc
2. Identification of the hazard
here the communities would identify different hazards in the area. The
different identified hazards need to be indicated in the social map.
3. Prioritization of the hazard
here the different hazards are ranked based on the criteria set by the
community. Here matrix ranking, pair wise ranking or voting can be used.
Then the hazard which fetches the top ranks would pass for the next step.
4. Characterization of the hazard
the following matrix would be used to characterize the selected hazard's). To
address the hazard and its impact we first need to first know its behavior.
There are many kinds of hazard study techniques, most of which perform a part or parts of
the hazard study process very well. These should address:

hazardous materials;
hazardous process conditions;
hazards associated with energy sources;
hazards associated with movement;
hazards associated with failure of a utility or loss of control;
hazardous operational and maintenance activities; and
externally caused hazards or natural threats.
 Features/characterization / of hazard
Cause/Origin Causes of the hazard

Sign and signals Scientific and indigenous indicators that hazard is

likely to happen

Forewarning Time between warning and impact

Speed of onset Rapidity of arrival and impactwe can distinguish

between hazards that occur without almost any
warning (earthquake), and a hazard that can be
predicted three to four days in advance to a very
slow-onset hazard like drought and famine
Frequency Does hazard occur seasonally, one a year or every
five years

Period of occurrence Does it occur in a particular time of the year (wet or

dry season)

Duration How long is a hazard felt - earthquake and

aftershocks; days/weeks/months that an area is
flooded, length of military operations
 2. Trend assessment
A Trend analysis is an adaptation of the timeline activity used in many participatory research
exercises.
A risk history helps you to build a sense of change over time and to show how developmental changes
within and around the communities may have increased or reduced with specific risks.
Communities may not have a precise recollection of dates and events. However, the activity helps to
identify general relationships and trends over time.
Steps in Trend assessment Table
Compare similarities and differences in time-lines for different risks and relate these to development
changes in the community .
Remind participants that the tables reflect perceptions of changes over time however, and that it is
sometimes difficult to recall events that happened some years earlier.
Where applicable, show how gradual (or even sudden) climate changes in the community have
contributed to its risk profile.
Show how accumulating risk conditions often creep up quietly, and it is only after there are
settlement fires or other incidents that these factors are recognized.
Climate change and development activities (e.g. Temperature change, seasonal change, socio-
economic activities etc

Eg (see next slide)

Before 1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
 Trend Assessment

Before 1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000

3. Vulnerability assessment
Vulnerability here is defined is a set of prevailing or consequential conditions,
which adversely affect the communitys ability to prevent, mitigate, prepare for or
respond to hazard events (Anderson and Woodrow, 1989).
Vulnerability = unsafe conditions (which could be physical, economic, social,
behavioral and environmental)
1. Degree of Vulnerability = ideal safe conditions (minus) existing unsafe
conditions
The gaps between the ideal and unsafe condition of the element at risk determine
the degree of exposure to the hazards impact or what is considered under this
paradigm as the degree of vulnerability.
This means the rich and the poor, although living in the same location, have
different degrees of vulnerability because they have different socioeconomic and
political status.
In measuring disaster risk based on the above assumption, the mathematical
presentation is:
Disaster Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability /capacity
Vulnerability cont..
2. Vulnerability as the unsafe location of the element at risk.
Vulnerability based on unsafe location refers to the degree to which
an area, people, physical structures or economic assets are exposed to
loss, injury or damage caused by the impact of a hazard.
This definition asserts vulnerability as equivalent to location and
can be represented in this mathematical formula:
Vulnerability = the location of element at risk vis a vis the hazard
(considering other factors like slopes).
The specific characteristics or conditions of the exposure that
increase the chance that a hazard will cause damage, harm, or loss.
Vulnerability varies according to exposure characteristics, such as
seismic design level, construction materials, demographics,
geographic location etc..
The conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and
environmental factors or processes, which increase the
susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.
 Vulnerability assessment exercises

Level of vulnerability Reasons for

level of
vulnerability

Hazard Elements at risk High medium Low

/Trend profile

a) Human elements
Gender
Age

b) Non human elements

Productive
assets(sectors)

Critical facilities
 4. Capacity assessment
Capacity is a combination of all the strengths and resources available within a
community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk, or the
effects of a disaster.

Capacity can be assessed based on discussions with communities about relevant

capacities that can be build on at local level.
We will assess capacities that are available before the hazard, during the hazard
and in managing the long-term climate change trend.

Building on what people have

Each individual, community, society or nation has latent capacities and they have
to be tapped in order to increase the individual and community resiliency.
Efforts should aim to develop coping capacities of the individuals and the
communities, and the organizations to develop resiliency from any type of hazard.
Community Capacity Assessment identifies the strengths and resources present
among individuals, households and the community to cope with, withstand, prevent,
prepare for, mitigate or quickly recover from a disaster.
Types of resources(capital/asset)
Resources cont
Resources cont
 Capacity assessment form cont.

capacities List of resources Constraints in accessing resources

available to
mitigate, respond Before the During the After the
and recover from hazard hazard hazard
the hazard
Human capital

Social capital

Physical capital

Financial capital

Natural capital

Political capital
Vulnerability Capacity Assessment ( VCA)

VCA is a key component of disaster risk analysis. Its

purpose is to:

identify vulnerable groups;

identify the factors that make them vulnerable and
how they are affected;
assess their needs and capacities (and empower them
to assess these); and
ensure that projects, programs and policies address
these needs, through targeted interventions or
prevention and mitigation of potentially adverse
impacts.
 Economically and socially marginalized groups in society
generally suffer worst from natural disasters.

This aspect of peoples vulnerability and capacity in the

context of natural hazards is very important for
understanding the potential impact of disasters and
making choices about how to intervene.

Generally, socioeconomic vulnerability is also now seen as

a key to understanding poverty and designing poverty
reduction programmes.

VCA considers a wide range of environmental, economic,

social, cultural, institutional and political pressures that
create vulnerability.
 VCA is used principally as:

A diagnostic tool to understand problems and their

underlying causes.

A planning tool to prioritize and sequence actions and

inputs.

A risk assessment tool to help assess specific risks.

A tool for empowering and mobilizing vulnerable

communities.
 In development projects, its main purpose is to provide
analytical data to support project design and planning
decisions,

particularly in ensuring that risks to vulnerable people are

reduced as a result of the project.

It can be applied in a number of different contexts

(e.g., poverty reduction, sectoral development, disaster

management, climate change adaptation), and at
different levels (from national or program level to
community and household).
 It can perform a range of functions: scoping or screening,
program or project design, research, baseline studies, and
monitoring and evaluation.

Organizations working in disaster reduction mainly use

VCA to identify problems (disaster reduction remains the
most common application).

VCA commonly forms part of risk analysis or social

appraisal, focusing on a particular geographical area or
sector.
 Other development project planning tools, such as social
analysis and social impact assessment, and especially
sustainable livelihoods approaches, may address similar
issues.

VCA is a diagnostic tool, but by facilitating understanding

of present and potential future situations it helps to direct
interventions.

Actions that result from a VCA should take the form of

improvements to project design and implementation that
increase community resilience (including development of
new activities to support vulnerable groups).
 In project planning, VCA findings usually feed into broader
risk analysis.

In practice, the distinction between risk and vulnerability

is sometimes blurred and some guidelines present
vulnerability and risk analysis as a combined exercise.

VCA can also be a tool for monitoring and evaluation, by

identifying changes in baseline conditions.

It is also useful to evaluate the VCA process itself and use

those lessons in subsequent assessments.
 Resilience is measured using the FAOs Resilience
Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA) model

This model takes into account the major determinants of

resilience that include:

physical dimensions (i.e. income & food access;

access to basic services; assets; social safety nets;
climate change;
enabling institutional environment),
capacity dimensions (adaptive capacity; & sensitivity)
(FAO, 2013: 4)
FAOs Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA) model

R f(IFA , ABS , AA , NAA , APT , SSN , CC , EIE , S , AC ) (1)

i i i i i i i i i i i
Where:

R= resilience; IFA= income and food access; ABS= access to basic services;

AA= agricultural assets; NAA=non-agricultural assets; APT=agricultural practice and

technology; SSN= social safety nets; CC=climate change, EIE=enabling institutional

environment; S=sensitivity; AC=adaptive capacity

5. Disaster Risk Analysis
The process of consolidating the findings of hazard,
vulnerability and capacity assessments and draw conclusions and
recommendations for disaster risk reduction and adaptation.

Examines the significance of identified risks on the communitys

capability to achieve defined goals and objectives.

Gaps in understanding the nature of the hazard and uncertainties in

expected hazard impacts lead to less accurate risk assessments.
 Disaster risk analysis form
Element at Hazard /trend Vulnerability Capacity Level of risk
risk

Major Grade(H/ Causes Grade Capacit Grade Grade Strategy

impacts M/L) of (H/M/L) y Gap (H/M/L) (H/M/L) to reduce
vulnerabil (Asset, the risk
ity knowled
ge)
Human L H L
element
Gender
Age
Non-
human
element
(Sector)
agriculture

Water
Health
Food
security
Disaster risk evaluation
The purpose of risk evaluation is to make decisions about what
strategies should be followed for the reduction of various disaster risks.
The risk evaluation can also be used to rank the most vulnerable
communities or sectors. This is done upon the basis of information from
disaster risk analysis.
Communities and local authorities jointly can agree on criteria to rank the
risks.
They can decide what levels of risk are acceptable about which no
actions need to be taken.

The decision about risk reduction & adaptation may include:-

Whether a risk needs to be addressed
What kind of activities could be undertaken
What are the priorities for addressing risk
Strategy selection process helps us to see the benefits and potential
negative impacts of each of the strategies so that activities can be
prioritized for inclusion in the plan
 How Natural scientists analyze
the physical risks:

Environmental processes

Causes and Recurrence Magnitude-frequency

precursors relations

Forecasting and
mitigation
 6. Strategic Selection
A strategy is the BEST POSSIBLE WAY of utilizing limited
community resource (money, materials, time and labor) to realize the
identified DRR measures. The strategy is selected based on
relevance to the purpose, capacity of the community implement it
and the opportunities and threats in the strategy.
Importance of strategy development
Helps the community to decide possible ways of accomplishing
measures.
Provides basis for a realistic action plan by the community
It helps the community and community organization to define
specific ways (based on their purpose, capacity and opportunity)
to accomplish measures.
It prevents the community from making big plans in many major
areas which are impossible to implement.
Development of DRR strategy guides a community or organization
in providing answers to the following equally important questions:
What to do, and What not to do
Strategy selection cont
Strategy Selection for each Risk Reduction and Adaptation Measure
assess:-
What are the strategies that could be taken to achieve this?
How urgent is this measure in terms of the speed at which it can
reduce losses?
How important is this measure in terms of the size of its impact on
disaster losses?
How feasible is it? Can it be done with existing capacity and
resources? Note external resources which might be able to be used to
tackle this.
Are there any negative side effects? Check if the strategy will lead to
mal-adaptation? You can use the adaptive capacity categories, and
the different stages of the disaster cycle to help you to think of all
possible strategies which could be employed in your sector.
Main strategic questions to DRR strategy development

1.What needs to be done?

2.Which organization takes responsibilities for which activities?
3.Is there any new organization needed?
4. Which activities are feasible & possibly included in:
Development Plans
Contingency Plans
5. What are the selected ways of following up on implementation and
checking whether we succeeded?
7. Planning (PPMRR)
Planning: refers to a range of activities and processes involved in developing
(preparing) a plan.

Objective (rationality) of planning: is to achieve efficient allocation of

resources in achieving social and economic objectives, which are promised in
government policies, strategies.

A plan is document consisting of social and economic objectives ,that shows

the available or anticipated resources , possible constraints, policies and
strategies, institution with a time horizon (short, medium or long).

Project planning: defines the project activities and end products that will be
performed; (describes how the activities will be accomplished.

A project plan is a formal, approved document that is used to manage and

control the project and is expected to change over time.

Project planning must be systematic, flexible enough to handle unique

activities, disciplined through reviews and controls, and capable of accepting
multifunctional inputs.

182
Chapter 5
5. Managing/governing risk along the supply chain/ value chain
5.1 Defining Supply chain and/or Value chain
Supply chain is a system of organizations, people, technology, activities,
information and resources involved in moving a product or service from
supplier to customer.
Supply chain activities transform natural resources, raw materials and
components into a finished product that is delivered to the end customer.
Value chain: the process or activities by which a company adds value to
an article, including production, marketing, and the provision of after-sales
service.
A value chain is a set of activities that an organization carries out to
create value for its customers.
The difference between a value chain and a supply chain is that a
supply chain is the process of all parties involved in fulfilling a customer
request, while a value chain is a set of interrelated activities a company
uses to create a competitive advantage.
Due to its global nature and systemic impact on the firms financial
performance, the supply chain arguably faces more risk than other areas
of the company.
 The objective of value chains associated with the DRR are:-
Strengthen the capacities of the local team in the field of DRR
Identify and analyse natural hazards and risk which might have a negative
impact on the project activities in the future
Identify and analyse coping strategies and use them as a basis for elaborating
future interventions to strengthen the resilience of beneficiaries.
Identify risks which might hamper specific value chain activities
Identify within the team interventions which strengthen the social and economic
resilience of local communities and authorities
Long supply chains offer more opportunities for disruption by
unforeseen events. Because of the impact on the corporation,
global supply chain strategies must include a thorough risk
analysis. But any impression that supply chain risk is an
exclusively global phenomenon should be quickly dispelled. For
example, in 2011 in the United States alone, there were 98 natural
disasters (severe weather, floods, earthquakes, and fires). These
events resulted in over $26 billion in business losses, with over 65
people losing their lives.
5.2 Supply chain risk management

Ghoshal (1987) classifies risks along the supply chain as follow:-

Macroeconomic risks associated with significant economic shifts
in wage rates, interest rates, exchange rates, and prices;
Policy risks associated with unexpected actions of national
governments;
Competitive risks associated with uncertainty about competitor
activities in foreign markets; and
Resource risks associated with unanticipated differences in
resource requirements in foreign markets.
The risk events most noticeable to the global supply chain
managers interviewed were currency, transit time variability,
forecasts, quality, safety, business disruption, survival, inventory
(and tools) ownership, culture, dependency and opportunism, oil
price fluctuation, and risk events affecting suppliers and
customers.
Supply chain risk management strategies

Risk Definitions Quotes from interviews

events
Currency Changes in exchange rates When youre dealing with international trade, certainly introduce the
currency risk
Transit Mean and variability of time spent in transit The problem with these long supply lines is theyre also highly
time including variable. I mean, its not just the mean, its the standard
transportation time and port clearance deviation of cycle time.
Forecast Errors in predicting demand leading to Theres the forecast error issue, too, over a long lead times (of
stock-outs or excess stock global supply chains). And, you know, the forecast error
multiplies exponentially as you extend the lead time.
Quality Defective, damaged, or wrong product, the assumption is that quality is a given, but, the reality of it is,
components or you do have quality difference between suppliers because, you
materials; differences across multiple sites have variation across people as far as whos doing the audit and
you dont necessarily have the same guy doing every audit
everywhere around the world, so, you know theres difference
there.
Safety Products causing safety hazards the problem is that when these suppliers are half a world away
from you, they dont necessarily are used to operating with the
same quality and the same safety standards as we adhere to
over decades because quality and safety standards have been
developed in the US over decades and, and they have become
almost natural to domestic suppliers. But look at people in the
East, they are just starting up factories. I mean, they dont have
that history.
Business Inability to produce goods or sell to I always used to put in my analyses some money for air
disruption customers freight. I would assume that eventually were going to
encounter a disruption
Survival Firm going out of business/bankrupt And what if youre outsourcing some component and right
safety standards werent exactly (followed), or right testing
wasnt done and you bring in a component that starts burning
down peoples houses, I mean, can you imagine the lawsuits? So
it could put an entire company at risk for survival
 5.3 Disaster risk in agricultural value chains
Agricultural value chains are integral components of the global food system. As
such, the vulnerability and exposure of agricultural systems to hazards can have
far reaching and cascading effects for global food security.
Agricultural value chains are conceptualized as having the following
components:-
Input suppliers (i.e. groups or businesses that supply producers with fertilizers,
chemicals, seeds and other inputs),
Producers (i.e. the individuals or businesses that involved with primary
agricultural production),
Intermediaries (i.e. commodity buyers or brokers who act as middle-people),
Processors (i.e. business that are involved with the secondary production of food
goods from commodities), marketers (i.e. businesses that aim to sell the food
goods) and
Consumers (i.e. those that eat the food).
Implicit within the value chain are the relationships and social capital that exist
between the components (GTZ, 2008).
Agricultural value chain (from Jaffee et al. 2010)
Exposure, Vulnerability and Resilience in agricultural value chain
Vulnerability refers to the susceptibility to harm of a system as it
relates to a broad range of physical, social, economic and
environmental processes .
Exposure refers to the components of a system that have the
potential to be impacted by the hazard .
Resilience refers to the ability of the system to absorb shocks, learn
and adapt to changing or adverse conditions.
Agricultural value chains are vulnerable and exposed to hazards
due to the disaster risk of each component of a value chain.
Value chains operate as economic systems, and risks at certain
nodes or of certain components have implications for other nodes
and components.
Resilience is a property of the value chain as a whole, and is
related to the vulnerability of each value chain component. Table
below provides an overview of disaster risk and examples of
resilience in agricultural value chains..
Pesticide Contamination:
Pesticides are lost from farms in much the same way as nutrients.
They can leach through the ground, run off or escape into the atmosphere.
Some of their effects are well-known; since a large proportion of pesticides make
it into the environment, eg Carsons book Silent Spring ( water, soil ,birds)
Pesticides can have large detrimental effects, particularly on aquatic and avian
species (Newton, 2004).
Pesticide residues are passed along the food chain, and inevitably reach humans
as well.
There are many impacts from pesticide use that are poorly understood.
Exposure (sprayers), residues, consumer(shorter term (acute) eg eye irritation,
skin irritation & long term (chronic) eg cancer, birth defect, respiratory problem.
Developing countries often have less effective pesticide regulations
The circle of poison, however, referring to the trap of producers in loosely-
regulated countries using dangerous pesticides on food which is then sold to
consumers in strictly-regulated, no longer is of major concern.
This is a sign that policies are improving, and although pesticide use is still
increasing, its growth is slowing
 Principles of Enhancing Agricultural Resilience to Disasters

Disaster risk reduction strategies can be implemented at a number of levels. The

most common levels used for analyzing these strategies in agriculture include
on-farm or household, community, regional, provincial, national and
international.
Disaster risk reduction needs to be place-based, but could be guided by the
principles highlighted below:-

1. Diversification: Diversification is an important part of disaster risk reduction in

agriculture. Diversification typically refers to introducing new crops and livestock to
agricultural systems. This approach reduces vulnerability by increasing the
commodity options for a producer.

2. Risk transfer and sharing : Risk transfer and sharing have been important parts
of disaster risk reduction in agricultural systems in many parts of the globe. This
form of disaster risk reduction involves, as its name suggests, shifting or distributing
risk between or across different actors within an agricultural system.
3. Sustainable Intensification :Agricultural intensification has played a major part
in increasing productivity over the last century. Intensification has occurred through
a number of ways and has involved the following innovations: crop improvements,
agroforestry, soil conservation, integrated pest management, horticulture, livestock
and aquaculture. Intensification helps reduce disaster risk in the global food system
by increasing productivity and thus food supplies available in the case of a disaster.
In addition, there are a number of novel extension practices, such as farmer field
schools and modern communication practices (e.g. ICTs), that will be important.

4. Resource-use Efficiency: Efficient resource-use helps reduce vulnerability to

multiple hazards in a number of contexts. In a general sense, increased efficiency
typically leads to reduced vulnerability through decreased dependence on critical
resources (e.g. fertilizer, water) and more sustainable resource management.

5. Market Governance: The governance of markets, especially at the local scale, is

increasingly involving new actors. Access to value chains for small-scale
agricultural producers, as related to market governance, can contribute significantly
to their abilities to manage disaster risks by improving access to resources used in
coping or adapting.
Dimensions of corporate social responsibility in the food chain (adapted from
Maloni and Brown 2006).
Regional Differences in Logistics
First World Emerging Third World

Infrastructure Highly developed Under development Insufficient to support

advanced logistics

Supplier operating High Variable Typically not

standards considered

Information Generally available Support system not Not available

system availability available

Human resources Available Available with some Often difficult to find

searching
5.4 Recommendations to Manage Supply Chain Risk

To manage supply chain risk in your company, you will have to develop processes
to Identify, prioritize, and mitigate risk.
(): Risk identification
What can go wrong?
(ii): Risk assessment
What is the likelihood it will go wrong?
What is the magnitude of the consequences and overall impact on the firm?
How quickly will the problem be discovered?
(iii): Risk mitigation and management
What options are available to mitigate the risks?
What are the costs and benefits of each option?

Leading companies have a process that executes these steps continually over time.
In the dynamic global environment, change is a constant.
Risks identified and mitigated today become obsolete (outdated) tomorrow.
Risk management must be an ongoing process.
The three-step risk management process
Identify the risks: Listed below as thought starters are some risks your supply chain may
face:-
1. Routine supply chain risks: These involve events like unexpected transit delays, changes
in customers orders, problems with suppliers, theft, and all of which can cause serious delays
in customer shipments.
2. Natural disasters: Although these are unpredictable, a few firms try to anticipate climatic
disruptions and develop contingency plans. If a company has a facility in a hurricane-prone
area, it can assume its only a matter of time before the odds catch up with the location.
3 Quality problems: A long supply line often exacerbates quality issues. This risk often causes
companies to carry more inventory.
4. Forecast error: Long-range forecasts required by long global supply lines are notoriously
inaccurate. Forecast error over long global lead times often results in major availability issues
and excess inventory problems.
5. Damage: Whether youre importing or exporting, there is significantly more handling in the
supply chain that exponentially increases the chance for damage.
6.Political/civil unrest: While not a major concern, it should be on a companys risk list and
examined, depending on the countries of import and export.
7.Culture clash: In April 2013, at least one employee at Foxconn jumped from the roof of the
factory over fears of job cuts. (Foxconn is best known for making Apple products.)
8. Strikes: Strikes are a realityfor example, the 40-day Hong Kong port workers strike in
AprilMay 2013. Strikes could also occur at production plants or facilities that supply critical
parts.
9. Laws and regulations: Unusual or unexpected application of regulations in a particular
country must be considered, as must the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in the United States.
10. Customs or port issues: Customs regulations are always in flux( instability, change) .
Failure by shippers to understand the rules and regulations can often cause excessive
shipment delays and fines.
11. Terrorism: Although quite rare, acts of terrorism often result in the addition of additional
permanent costs to the supply chain far beyond the cost of the act itself.
12. Safety problems: How many times are safety recalls issued on top-name brands? There
may be opportunities with product liability insurance to mitigate risks, from product design to
manufacturing.
13. Changes in economics: For example, wages in China are escalating(rising) for a variety
of reasons. Some point to the one-baby policy as a source of future increasing labor
shortages, even though predictions call for that policy to relax. As reported by Chinas
National Bureau of Statistics, wages rose 14 % for private-sector workers in 2012,
compared with 12.3 % in 2011.This contributed to nearly a 70% wage increase in the past
five years.
14. Price or currency fluxions: Extreme and unexpected changes in the price and availability
of critical raw materials wreak(cause) havoc(chaos) on a firms financial plans, as do swings in
currency.
15. Intellectual property loss: This is a major problem that should not be underestimated.
Many firms, to their chagrin, have found they inadvertently created a new global competitor.
16. Technology: Failed implementation of supply chain technology, such as Wal-Marts RFID
(radio frequency identification tags) saga, can have a huge negative impact on the supply
chain. The six-year RFID drama may have moved the technology along a bit faster. But many
believe it was extremely premature.
17. Pirate attacks: Piracy on the worlds seas recently reached a five-year low, although its
still a danger, with 297 ships attacked in 2012, compared with 439 in 2011.
18. Third-party risk: The way your suppliers do business could unexpectedly impact your firm
 Some elements that companies use in their risk mitigation plans include:-
1. Insurance: Firms need to work with insurance providers and create a plan to use insurance to
mitigate risk where appropriate, based on an objective cost-benefit analysis (described in more
detail later).
2. Best practices approaches: Companies would be well served to employ one of the best
practice models previously described.
3. Inventory: Some call this the no-brainer approach to mitigating risk. It is certainly the
most often used, either by design or accident. How much additional inventory results if a source
is moved globally without making systemic improvements in the supply chain process? Many
of those we talk to say 60 to 75 or more days of supply!
4. Expedited shipping: Some firms accurately realize that stuff happens and that they may
need to expedite shipments globally in spite of the best-laid plans. Therefore, they prepare
thoroughly for that day. In fact, some assume a percentage of the shipments will be expedited
or airfreighted when they initially plan for a global source. Knowing this, the proactive supply
chain manager may consider investigating different \ types of insurance coverage. Some
policies cover the costs of expedited shipments, depending on circumstances.
5. Import excellence: Leading companies realize that the better they become at global shipping,
the less risk they incur. They strive to achieve import excellence, get the highest-Fairtrade
certification, and optimize incoterms (international commerce terms, which specify liability and
responsibility throughout the global supply chain).
6. Competent partners: Although it is potentially costly, some companies develop a
second domestic source that can be quickly ramped (risen) up. They insist on
dealing with strong, competent world-class suppliers, ideally with a first world
parent. Those who have done this effectively contend that it can take at least two
years to develop and certify an excellent source.

7.Financially strong partners: One major buyer defaulting on a payment could

spell disaster for a small to medium-size enterprise. Trade credit insurance, used for
many years throughout Europe, is now becoming increasing popular in the United
States.

8.Design for globalization: The simpler the product design and the fewer parts and
SKU(stock keeping unit)s involved, the less risk there is in a global supply chain.
Leading firms design for globalization. They minimize component parts and SKU s
and have rigorous beginning of life tollgates(entrance) and end of life processes for
their products.

9.Supply chain event management: An early warning system is crucial if risks are
to be identified quickly enough to do something about them. Supply chain event
management (SCEM) systems put in place criteria that trigger alerts
10. Internal functional silo management: When supply aligns with demand, supply
chain risks diminish. Leading companies include supply chain risk management as
part of their S&OP (sales and operations planning process) or their IBP (integrated
business planning process).
11. Contracting: Supply shortages invariably happen. Some firms anticipate the
inevitable and work with suppliers to make sure their firms get more than their fair
share during serious shortages.
12. Disaster preparation: The idea is to know whom to call if a natural disaster
strikes, such as the American Red Cross, the state office of emergency management,
FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), etc. In other words, buy the
umbrella before it rains.
13. Contingency planning: Leading companies have documented contingency plans
for risks that would have a devastating impact. This would include detailing what
would happen if the company lost a major supplier, one of its factories, or one of its
DCs.
14. Forward buying or hedging: Hedging is a way for a company to minimize or
eliminate foreign exchange risk, as well as the risk of commodity price increase, at a
cost.
15.Supplier segmentation: The idea is to segment suppliers by total financial impact
on the firm. This does not necessarily mean total supplier spend. It is clearly possible
for a very inexpensive component to shut down a major assembly line. Risk
 5.6 Introduction to environmental risk assessment (EIA)...
Rationale (justification) : Many projects and associated industrial activities pose
risks to the environment, and environmental issues present risks to the business
itself if not addressed appropriately. Managing environmental risks is an important
part of good project and business management.
Project plans and appraisals should consider environmental risks, their impacts
and their treatment.
There are many reasons why organizations undertake environmental risk
assessment as part of their project management activities.
(i) There is a regulatory requirement for it. In many jurisdictions (authorities),
regulators require formal environmental impact studies and reports, to ensure
environmental risks have been identified and adequate treatment measures to
mitigate them have been included in project plans.
Often the mitigation measures become a condition for project approval &
licensing.
Mitigation activities are likely to extend over all phases of a project and the
whole life of the asset created by a project, from design and construction
through operations and on to close-down and site rehabilitation.

(ii) There is an ethical requirement for it. Many companies have codes of ethics and
environmental conduct that require appropriate priority to be given to minimizing
environmental damage and harm. This is part of the good citizen role of companies.
Environmental performance may also be included in the organizations triple-
bottom-line and balanced scorecard reporting and monitoring systems.
(iii) There is an economic reason for it. Identifying environmental risks and
mitigating them early in the life of a project is usually far easier and cheaper than
having to rectify problems and clean up a harmful environmental release. As well as
direct financial benefits, avoiding environmental problems reduces the amount of
management time and distraction involved in dealing with them, reduces disruption to
operations and, in the extreme case, avoids regulatory penalties and costly litigation.
(iv) There are social and community reasons for it. Most projects have many
stakeholders with an interest in the projects outcomes and its wider effects. Sound
environmental risk management promotes better communication with stakeholders,
better community understanding of environmental costs and benefits and greater
transparency of process.
In some jurisdictions, explicit community consultation is a formal requirement,
and in many projects it would be strongly recommended anyway without the
regulatory imperative. Overall, good environmental risk management makes good
business sense
Environmental Impact Assessment

EIA is a tool for environmental conservation and has been identified as a key
component in new project implementation.

EIA is in essence the methodology for identifying and evaluating in advance

any effect be it positive or negative that results from the implementation of
a proposed project or public instrument.

EIA assesses the impacts of proposed initiatives before work on the initiatives
begins.

EIA is a formal study process and is used to predict the environmental

consequences of a proposed major development project.
Criteria for a EIA

The environmental assessment process requires cumulative environmental

effects to be documented and analyzed. At minimum, the questions presented in
the following table should be addressed.
Assessment phase and Expected information based on the questions below
(I) Scoping
1. What are the main cumulative effects issues attributed to the project? What are
the main cumulative effects issues attributed to other projects and activities in the
region?
2. How were the appropriate limits to the geographical and temporal boundaries
determined? Why are these considered appropriate?
3. Identify the resource management initiatives and policies pertinent to the project.
(II) Identifying Future Activities

4. What activities/actions or projects have or will have effects that may

interact with the impacts associated with the project? How are these
effects accounted for in the EIA?

5. How were the reasonably foreseeable future projects determined?

Describe the consultation process used to identify future activity,
including rationale and assumptions. Are relevant past, present and
future projects described adequately?

6. How are future trends in population growth, recreation and industrial

growth accounted for? What factors will influence the rate of growth of
human activity? What regulatory processes are in place to deal with the
future activity?
(III) Analyzing Effects
7. What is the relative contribution of the project to this overall
situation?
8. What are the responses and trends of the valued ecosystem
components (VECs) to the identified cumulative effects? What will
be the cumulative effect of the project on selected indicators?
9. What is the relationship between the sources of environmental
stress caused by the project and subsequent effects on VECs?
10. How are uncertainty and risk dealt with? How does the
assessment deal with the inevitable uncertainty entailed in predicting
the likelihood and magnitude of future events, i.e., risk?
11. What are the magnitudes, duration, extent and significance of residual
impacts? What is the relationship of effects to existing thresholds4 and ecological
indicators?
12. What specific government and/or company goals and management objectives
exist or are proposed to address the projects cumulative effects?

(IV) Adaptive Management

13. What monitoring and research are needed to detect adverse outcomes and
reduce critical uncertainties? How will feedback from monitoring be incorporated
into the long-term project operations?
14. What documentation is envisioned or required during the life of the project?
What reporting mechanisms are anticipated?
End of the Course.Thank you