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The past five years have seen significant cost reductions in photovoltaics and a correspondingly strong increase in uptake, with
photovoltaics now positioned to provide one of the lowest-cost options for future electricity generation. What is becoming
clear as the industry develops is that area-related costs, such as costs of encapsulation and field-installation, are increasingly
important components of the total costs of photovoltaic electricity generation, with this trend expected to continue. Improved
energy-conversion efficiency directly reduces such costs, with increased manufacturing volume likely to drive down the addi-
tional costs associated with implementing higher efficiencies. This suggests the industry will evolve beyond the standard
single-junction solar cells that currently dominate commercial production, where energy-conversion efficiencies are fundamen-
tally constrained by ShockleyQueisser limits to practical values below 30%. This Review assesses the overall prospects for
a range of approaches that can potentially exceed these limits, based on ultimate efficiency prospects, material requirements
and developmental outlook.
R
eports of the first efficient silicon solar cells in 19541 stimu- open-circuit voltage VOC, the currentvoltage curve and the limiting
lated calculations of ultimate photovoltaic efficiency 2,3 and its efficiency 5. The limits for standard single-junction cells and the fac-
dependence on the semiconductor bandgap (Eg). Calculating tors that influence these are described below.
current-generation limits in a short-circuited cell is uncomplicated:
each incident photon of energy above Eg is assumed to create one ShockleyQueisser limits. Figure1b shows limits calculated versus
carrier that flows in the external circuit (Fig.1a). Assigning funda- cell bandgap (or, more correctly, the absorption threshold, which is
mental limits to the open-circuit voltage (VOC) is more problematic. often smaller than Eg, when effects such as excitonic and phonon-
Initial approaches estimated bounds2,3 using Shockleys semicon- assisted absorption are considered). Also shown are the highest
ductor pn junction theory 4, combined with optimistic extrapola- experimental results6, plotted versus energy absorption threshold.
tions of relevant material properties. Since there is no unique way of determining this threshold, it was
Shockley and Queisser5 found an elegant solution to this dif- chosen for the plotted data as the photon energy, where experi-
ficulty. Noting solar cells must absorb sunlight strongly, they real- mental cell photon-to-electron external quantum efficiency, EQEpe,
ized the optimal material properties would be related to those of increases to half-peak value at long wavelengths.
ideal black bodies, at least for energies above Eg. Unbiased in the Two crystalline materials, Si and GaAs, have demonstrated effi-
dark, good cells would receive and emit largely ambient temperature ciency above 25%, with assorted crystalline, polycrystalline and
black-body radiation. Emitted photons of energy above Eg over- thin-film materials demonstrating efficiency clustered around the
whelmingly originate from radiative recombination of electrons in 2122% range. A gap follows to the 1015% range, where several
the semiconductor conduction band with valence-band holes, as other materials can be found.
the strongest optical process at such energies. Photons generated Three loss categories cause experimental performance to fall
in this way would have various fates, such as being reabsorbed or below SQ limits: (1) collection losses, including photon reflection
totally-internally-reflected at surfaces, but the number emitted is or absorption in poorly responding cell regions; (2) non-radia-
readily quantified by integrating the ambient temperature black- tive recombination occurring together with radiative, decreas-
body photon spectrum aboveEg. ing output voltages, particularly for poor-quality materials and
With a voltage V across the cell (Fig.1a), Shockleys pn junction interfaces; (3) electrical losses, including cell series- and shunt-
theory 4 shows that carrier concentration near the junction increases resistances. Losses (1) and (3) depend on cell-design specifics.
exponentially with qV/kT (where k is Boltzmanns constant, T is Loss (2) can be quantified for any experimental cell by calculat-
absolute temperature and q is electronic charge, with kT/q, the ther- ing its external radiative efficiency 7 (ERE), which is defined as
mal voltage, equal to 26.69257mV at 25C). Intuitively, Shockley the fraction of net recombination when the cell is open-circuited
and Queisser realized that, for good cells, similar enhancements that is radiative. (This is closely related to the electron-to-photon
throughout active volumes would correspondingly increase recom- EQE when measured as a light-emitting diode (LED)). Because
bination rates. Hence, the number of photons emitted by good cells SQ theory assumes 100% ERE, ERE determines how closely an
under voltage would be the above-bandgap thermal equilibrium experimental cell approaches the ideal.
emission enhanced by this exponential factor. Figure1c shows cell energy-conversion efficiency versus ERE for
a range of photovoltaic materials. For crystalline IIIV materials,
Single-junction cells ERE can be as high as 32.3% for the record 28.8%-efficient GaAs
Calculating ShockleyQueisser (SQ) limits follows simply from the cell. For silicon, ERE is lower (0.12.2%) and constrained to values
above insight. For limiting performance, all cell recombination will well below 100%, as intrinsic non-radiative Auger recombination
be radiative. The current that supports this recombination is equal is stronger than radiative recombination8,9. Spanning the silicon
to q times the emitted photon-flux, thus allowing calculation of the ERE values are the polycrystalline chalcogenides, copper indium
Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics, School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052,
Australia. *e-mail: m.green@unsw.edu.au
a b 45
Sunlight
AM1.5D 46,200
40 concentration
SQ
limits
Light emission 35
30 AM1.5G c-GaAs
c-Si
Efficiency (%)
25 c-InP
CIGS Perovskite
20 mc-Si CdTe c-GalnP
CIS
p 15 CZTSSe Dye Organic
n 10 nc-Si
a-Si
I c-Ge CZTS CGS
5
Reflector
V 0
0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4
Bandgap (eV)
c d
30
Silicon GaAs
25 Diffuse
CdTe
CIGS Half-angle
20
Energy conversion
efficiency (%)
15 Perovskite
CdTe
OPV a-Si
CZTS
10 Diffuse
Dye
Module
5 Direct
0
1
7
2
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
ERE (%)
Figure 1 | Light absorption and emission, SQ limits, experimental energy-conversion efficiencies, radiative efficiencies and sunlight incident angles.
a, Light absorption and emission from a solar cell under load. b, SQ energy-conversion efficiency limits under global sunlight (AM1.5G) versus energy
absorption threshold (solid line), highest experimental values for various materials (data points) and limits for direct AM1.5D sunlight conversion under
maximal concentration of 46,200 suns (dashed line), all at a cell temperature of 25C. Limits for other concentration ratios lie roughly geometrically
intermediate between the solid and dashed lines, such that the curve for a concentration of 215 suns would lie around halfway between the two. c, Energy-
conversion efficiency versus ERE for various experimental cells. d, Angular effects in solar energy conversion, showing direct and diffuse solar components,
minimum acceptance angle and ground reflection effects. Data taken from refs 6,7.
gallium selenide (CIGS) and recently emerging perovskites. Next Ross13, extended by Wrfel14, and recently discussed analytically 15.
come other chalcogenides, CdTe and CZTSS (Cu2ZnSnSySe4y), The second refinement relates light emission from practical cells to
followed by dye-sensitized amorphous silicon and organic pho- black-body emission16. In one of the semiconductor device fields
tovoltaic (OPV) cells. Organic LEDs have high values of electron- surprising reciprocal relationships, emission from an actual cell,
to-photon EQE because they are designed differently to their OPV with some provisos, equals that from the black-body ideal at each
counterparts10, with LED-like design perhaps explaining one out- wavelength and voltage, except multiplied by EQEpe at that wave-
lier in Fig.1c an organic photovoltaic cell with modest conver- length when used as a solar cell16. (The same relationship also applies
sion efficiency despite reasonable ERE. The other outlier, a CdTe to LEDs, although this is possibly not as well-known or exploited in
cell with 21% efficiency despite low ERE, is explained by high-qual- that field.)
ity processing, which gives a good fill-factor and photogenerated
carrier collection. Concentrated sunlight. One way to exceed original SQ limits is to
The original SQ theory has been extended by two refinements. focus sunlight. The current in a short-circuited cell increases lin-
One is to include stimulated emission, which allows accurate treat- early with photon flux, whereas VOC increases nearly logarithmi-
ment of the relationship between cell VOC and Eg. The original the- cally, thus giving a superlinear increase in power. The concentrator
ory predicts VOC>Eg/q under some conditions11 (small Eg, strong acceptance half-angle (Fig.1d) determines17 the maximum pos-
illumination and low T), with the refinement limiting VOC to Eg/q sible sunlight concentration (in air) of 1/sin2. At its mean distance,
for ideal black-body cells (not necessarily for other cells12). The the Sun subtends a half-angle of 0.2665 at the Earths surface12,
extended stimulated-emission formulation was first mentioned by which corresponds to a maximum concentration of 46,200 suns.
a b c
Spectrally sensitive mirrors Sunlight 80 AM1.5D 46,200
Infinite J
60 6J
Efficiency (%)
50 3J 4J D IIIV 3J D IIIV
Sunlight
40 2J
3J IIIV 2J D IIIV
30 5J IIIV
2J GalnP/Si* 2J III/V
20
1J 3J a-Si/nc-Si/nc-Si
10
2J a-Si/nc-Si
0
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4
Solar cells of different bandgaps Bandgap (lowermost cell; eV)
Figure 2 | Multiple-junction cells, efficiency limits and highest experimental results. a, Spectral splitting approach, in which filters are used to direct
different wavelength bands in sunlight to appropriate cells. b, Stacked tandem cells, showing light transmission and radiative coupling. c, Limiting
conversion efficiencies of various series-connected stacked tandem cells as a function of the energy absorption threshold of the lowermost cell and the
number of cells in the stack (solid lines). Also shown (dashed line) is the limiting efficiency for a stack containing an infinite number of cells under maximal
concentration (46,200 suns). Results for infinite cell numbers under other concentrations would be approximately geometrically intermediate between
the upper AM1.5G and the dashed curve. Data points show the highest experimental efficiencies for different cell technologies under both unconcentrated
(AM1.5G) and concentrated (AM1.5D) sunlight, with the number of junctions and cell materials also indicated. 3J, three-junction cells; D, concentrator
cells under direct sunlight; *, mechanically stacked four-terminal device. All other devices are two-terminal monolithic devices. Data taken from ref. 6.
series-connected stack. Solid lines show the case of AM1.5G illu- Sub-bandgap absorption
mination, with a limiting efficiency of 68.0% for stacks that involve A significant loss in standard cells is the wastage of sub-bandgap
essentially infinite cell numbers, for lowermost cell thresholds of photons. One early suggestion for tackling this issue was the use
<0.5eV. Stacks with finite cell numbers can approach this limit, as of mid-gap states to capture such photons in a two-step absorption
cell numbers increase. process (Fig.3a)51. In their original paper 5, Shockley and Queisser
Monolithic tandem cells have been most successfully imple- suggested that analysing this problem using the SQ approach would
mented in the IIIV material system, with record 38.8% efficiency show no benefits, with similar conclusions made in subsequent stud-
measured under unconcentrated sunlight (AM1.5G) for a five- ies52. The proposal of a related multiple-absorption-threshold device
junction device40 that involves cells fabricated on GaAs and InP the multiple-quantum-well cell53 (Fig.3b) which involves car-
wafers and then subsequently bonded together. The best two- and rier photogeneration in lower-bandgap quantum-well regions and
three-junction results are 31.6% and 37.9%, respectively, again subsequent thermal escape to the higher-bandgap host material,
using IIIV semiconductors41,42. Another successful implementa- stimulated work that clarified the basic thermodynamics of the two-
tion has been in the thin-film amorphous-silicon (a-Si) and related step absorption process.
nanocrystalline-silicon (nc-Si) system. Although efficiencies Associated thermodynamic constraints were resolved by extend-
are much lower in these systems than in IIIV material devices ing SQ concepts to the related intermediate-band cell54 (Fig.3c). The
because of a more marginal material quality, they are appreciably corresponding device equivalent circuit for schemes of Fig.3ac is
higher than related single-junction devices. An AM1.5G efficiency shown in Fig.3d, where the rectangular circuit elements represent
of 13.6% has been reported for a triple-junction a-Si/nc-Si/nc-Si SQ-type cells.
cell43, compared with 10.2% and 11.8% for the best a-Si and nc-Si Under concentrated sunlight, the efficiency limit approaches that
devices, respectively 44,45. of a three-cell tandem (Fig.3e), as the parallel connection of Fig.3d
Increasing sunlight concentration (or restricting cell acceptance is not unduly restrictive. Energy wastage by absorbing high-energy
angle) increases efficiency limits, with the dashed line in Fig. 2c photons in excitations possible with lower-energy photons must
showing the infinite cell limit under maximal AM1.5D concen- be avoided. Correlating the absorption strength for each excita-
tration. A maximum of 86.0% is possible when the lowermost cell tion with its energy threshold or, alternatively, finite bandwidths for
bandgap approaches zero. Best experimental results are 46.0% at a both valence and conduction bands, are two suggested strategies for
concentration of 508suns for a four-junction wafer-bonded cell46, avoiding such wastage12.
with efficiencies of 44.4% and 34.1% for three- and two-junction The parallel connection becomes more restrictive under one-sun
cells42,47, respectively, again all using IIIV semiconductors. operation, as the combined voltage from elements C1 and C2 drops
Considering likely photovoltaic evolutionary paths, it has been twice as rapidly with decreasing illumination as from element C1,
argued48 that a key challenge is the search for a low-cost thin-film thereby inhibiting a good voltage match. Importantly, efficiency can
cell that can be deposited onto silicon or other commercial cell tech- be improved if the defect level energy relaxes after occupation by an
nologies to form high-efficiency tandem cells, with much present electron to a state that does not communicate radiatively with the
interest in perovskite/silicon tandem cells. Even triple-junction band from which it originated (Fig.3a), or, alternatively, if there is
cells in this material system may be feasible, although substantial a ratchet band with similar properties to which electrons can relax,
improvements in perovskite cell stability are essential before prac- in the case of intermediate-band devices (Fig.3e). Benefits can be
tical application is possible. Unconfirmed efficiencies above 20% significant. For a silicon cell with ERE=0.3%, introducing defects
have been reported49,50, although poor stability is likely hindering with ERE=1% for transitions between the defect and either band
independent confirmation. Similarly, using tandem stacks to super- increases the calculated efficiency from 26.7% to 32.0% with defect
charge other commercial technologies, such as CdTe and CIGS, relaxation, assuming appropriate photon use55. Without relaxa-
would boost efficiency to levels that might eventually become man- tion, an optimally located defect with otherwise identical proper-
datory to maintain competitiveness in the future. ties would reduce the efficiency to 18.4%, thus justifying earlier
Efficiency (%)
40 (no relaxation)
for improving efficiency is to manipulate sunlight prior to con-
version. Luminescent concentrators and photon up- and down- 30 SQ
converters are key examples, as is thermophotovoltaics, which we limit AM1.5G
discuss below as a thermal approach. 20
Figure4a shows the principles of a luminescent concentrator 61,62. 10
Dye molecules or quantum dots impregnated into glass or plastic
sheets absorb solar photons and subsequently re-emit them at lower 0
energies in a narrow energy range close to the absorption thresh- 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Bandgap (eV)
old, but in random directions. A reasonable fraction will be totally-
internally-reflected on striking surfaces of the embedding sheet and,
Figure 3 | Sub-bandgap absorption processes, equivalent circuit and
through successive surface reflections, will be guided to the edges.
limiting efficiencies. a, Excitation from the valence band (VB) to the
Solar cells along these edges then convert the narrow-bandwidth
conduction band (CB) through a mid-gap defect level, both without (left)
light with high efficiency.
and with (right) defect energy level relaxation. b, Quantum-well solar cell
An appealing feature of luminescent concentrators is that they
showing carrier generation by low-energy photons in quantum wells, with
can concentrate both direct and diffuse sunlight. Analysing losses
subsequent escape to the higher-bandgap host material. c, Solar cell in
in practical systems can be complex, but high-level analysis of ideal-
which an intermediate band is present, such as when impurities are present
ized systems produces an interesting result 63. If a spectrally sensitive
in sufficient quantities to cause overlapping between isolated states.
omnidirectional reflector a hot mirror is placed along the
d, Equivalent circuit that is common to sub-bandgap absorption approaches.
top surface of the luminescent sheet so that all light below a certain
The boxes indicate SQ-like cells, with box length representing the value
energy threshold is reflected64 (with the rear surface covered by a
of the cells energy absorption threshold. e, Limiting efficiency under
standard reflector), the limiting efficiency equals the SQ limit, with
unconcentrated AM1.5G sunlight with and without energy relaxation (solid
Eg replaced by the top-surface reflection threshold63.
lines), achieved by relaxing to a ratchet band in the case of intermediate-
The expected good performance of a concentrator arises because
band cells113. The dashed line shows results under maximally concentrated
the limiting efficiency decreases only slowly as the ratio of cell area
AM1.5D radiation, where relaxation makes no significant difference.
to aperture area decreases, reaching more than 30% for geometric
concentrations above 100times. The situation is even better for cells
with non-ideal properties. For a silicon cell with ERE=0.24% and through a two-step process similar to excitations in impurity photo-
a conventional efficiency limit of 25.7%, an only slightly lower effi- voltaic and intermediate-band cells. Instead of being collected, the
ciency of 23.9% is calculated63 in an ideal fluorescent concentrator excited electrons relax to their ground state and thus emit a high-
at a geometric concentration of around 200times. energy photon that is absorbed upon re-entering the cell.
A hot mirror is essential for such performance, although it is The equivalent circuit for a two-step rear up-converter is shown
challenging to implement. Without a hot mirror efficiency falls rap- in Fig. 4c. Efficiency increases appreciably under one-sun opera-
idly with increasing geometric concentration, even under ideal con- tion only if the intermediate state relaxes during the two-step
ditions63. The most efficient experimental device lacks a hot mirror excitation. This allows SQ elements C3 and C4 (Fig. 4c) to drive
and is only 7.1% efficient at a geometric concentration of 2.5times65. element C2 strongly into forward bias, thereby increasing its emis-
Efficiency can be improved, in principle, by stacking sheets with dif- sion. Efficiency limits under unconcentrated sunlight (Fig. 4d)
ferent absorption thresholds62, but the luminescent approach does show substantial gains for all bandgaps, with a peak efficiency close
not seem conducive to high efficiency; its benefits may lie instead in to that of optimal three-cell tandems (Fig. 2c), as the equivalent
attractive aesthetics66. circuit suggests.
A second spectrum-manipulation approach is photon up-con- The main experimental difficulty has been low radiative efficiency
version (Fig. 4b)67. In this scheme, photons with energy below Eg for practical up-converters generally well below 1%. One suggested
reach the rear up-converter and excite electrons to a higher energy improvement 68 is the use of semiconductor up-converters (Fig.4e).
30 Up-converter
(no relaxation)
SQ
Multiple carriers per photon
20 limit AM1.5G SQ limits assume each absorbed photon produces a single carrier
in the external circuit. Early semiconductor photodiodes demon-
10 strated multiple-carrier generation by using high-energy photons72,
which becomes energetically feasible once the photon energy
0 exceeds 2Eg. Multiplication occurs through impact-ionization
0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 (Fig.5a), which prompted the early suggestion of this approach for
Bandgap (eV) improving efficiency 73.
Analysis using SQ methodology produces interesting insights74.
Figure 4 | Photon wavelength manipulation using luminescent If multiple electrons/photons are introduced as a generation pro-
concentrators and photon up- and down-conversion. a, Luminescent cess, the inverse-recombination process two electronhole pairs
concentrator containing quantum dots or dye molecules impregnated recombining to give a single photon must also be included to
into a glass or plastic sheet. Light is absorbed and re-emitted at a longer avoid thermodynamic inconsistencies. There has been much recent
wavelength with high quantum efficiency, after which it can be collected interest in multiple-exciton generation (MEG) in quantum-confined
by cells along the edge of the sheet. b, Photon up-conversion. Photons of cells75, although the high-level analysis remains unchanged. There is
energy below the cell absorption threshold pass through the cell and are obviously a strong connection with down-conversion, which sug-
absorbed in a rear up-converter, where two (or more) combine to produce a gests links to two-cell tandems. Similar benefits would also apply if
single higher-energy photon that can be converted by the cell. c, Equivalent MEG were combined with up-conversion.
circuit for the up-conversion process. d, Limiting efficiency for photon Ideally the quantum yield (number of electronhole pairs per
up- and down-conversion when combined under unconcentrated sunlight absorbed photon) would have the staircase property approached in
(AM1.5G). Energy relaxation of the intermediate state is critical for high Fig.5c for large values of the parameter P. P is formally defined
efficiency in this case, as indicated. A refractive index of 3.6 was assumed perhaps obscurely as the ratio of energy loss from multiple-particle
for the down-converter calculations61. e, Proposed implementation of rear generation (kMEG) to that from other processes (kcool) (Fig.5b), at an
up-converter using IIIV cells60. f, Photon down-conversion. A single high- energy twice the threshold for multiple-particle generation. Simple
energy photon is absorbed in a down-converter prior to incidence on the theory 72 gives a square-law dependence of this ratio with energy above
cell, resulting in the subsequent emission of two (or more) lower-energy this threshold, where the threshold energy equals (2+1/P)Eg. More
photons. g, Equivalent circuit for the down-conversion process. modest experimental performance is seen than that given by the ideal
staircase, although data are well characterized by finite P values.
In this system, current in the GaInP top cell is boosted by emission Experimentally, P ranges from well below 1 for bulk materials
from the underlying GaInP cell, which is driven by absorption in the to a peak of around 10 for PbSe nanorods76. Corresponding effi-
two lowermost smaller-bandgap cells. Although the limiting effi- ciency limits under non-concentrated AM1.5G sunlight (Fig. 5d)
ciency is close to that of a three-cell tandem, its spectral tolerance is show that P values above 10 are required for gains over SQ limits,
Efficiency (%)
SQ limit
220 Ge (bulk)
P=4 AM1.5G
PbSe (QD) P = 0.42 25
Sunlight
190 P=1 P=0
Si
20
160 PbSe (bulk)
15
(NR)
hf
HOMO 130 PbS (bulk) 10
PbSe (bulk)
100 5
70 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4
Photon energy (Eg) Bandgap (eV)
Figure 5 | Schemes in which a single photon creates multiple photogenerated carriers. a, Impact ionization, as observed experimentally in most
semiconductors at high photon energies. b, Multiple exciton generation as found in quantum dots, showing confined energy levels and competing energy-
relaxation processes. HOMO, highest occupied molecular orbital; LUMO, lowest unoccupied molecular orbital. c, Plot of quantum yield (number of
electronhole pairs created per absorbed photon) as a function of normalized photon energy, for a range of materials, compared with theoretical curves
based on the parameter P (determined by the relative values of the loss processes in panel b). Bulk semiconductors generally have P values less than1,
with PbSe nanorods showing the highest values of 7.3 (Si and Ge data from ref.114; other data from ref. 75). d, Limiting energy-conversion efficiency as a
function of energy absorption threshold for unconcentrated AM1.5G sunlight across various values of parameter P. A value of P>10 is required to improve
upon the SQ limits (P=0). Panels bd adapted from ref. 75, ACS.
with values over 100 needed for significant gains. Under concen- Solar thermal conversion. As noted, solar thermal conversion
tration, small bandgaps become optimal and, consequently, ther- involves using heat from a receiver heated to temperature TC to
modynamic and limiting efficiencies approach those of the thermal drive a heat engine, where its performance is limited to the Carnot
devices below 12,77. A recent milestone78 demonstrated absolute efficiency (1 TA/TC), where TA is the ambient temperature. The
EQEpe above 100%, although still far below the requirements for ideal case can be modelled simply when sunlight is approximated
worthwhile efficiency gains. as blackbody radiation characterized by a constant temperature TS
under maximal concentration (46,200 suns). The conversion effi-
Thermal and related approaches ciency limit in this case is:
The earliest approaches for converting sunlight into useful work
involved using absorption as heat and subsequent conversion =(1TC4/TS4)(1TA/TC)(1)
using heat engines79 (Fig.6a). The associated thermodynamics are
straightforward, particularly under concentrated sunlight, as is The history and properties of this equation are discussed else-
normally the case. However, the thermodynamics of several other where80. For a 6,000K Sun and an ambient temperature of 300K,
approaches are very similar, as already noted for multiple-carrier the optimal efficiency is 85.4% for TC=2,544K. This receiver tem-
generation, but thermodynamic links also exist to infinite tandem perature is beyond the capability of the materials used in practical
cell stacks, thermophotovoltaics, thermionics and hot carrier cells, solar thermal systems, which are generally limited to TC<1,100K
which we discuss below. and efficiencies below 70%, even under the most ideal conditions.
a b c
80
Geothermal organic Rankine Infinite tandem-cell
70 Cement organic Rankine 80
Sunlight limits AM1.5D
Carnot limit ZT = 20 (unlikely)
60 (ZT infinite)
Solar thermal
Solar Brayton Nuclear Brayton 60
wideband absorber
Efficiency (%)
50
Efficiency (%)
Receiver TC
and Rankine Solar thermal
Coal Rankine selective absorber
40 Solar stirling
Nuclear Rankine ZT = 4 (ambitious) 40
Carnot SQ limits
engine 30
Solar Rankine AM1.5D
20 ZT = 2 (plausible)
20
Thermionics ZT = 0.5 (available)
10
TA Thermoelectrics Thermophotovoltaics
0 0
300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1 10 100 1,000 10,000
Solar temperature (K) Concentration (suns)
Figure 6 | Solar thermal conversion and conversion efficiencies. a, Idealized solar thermal converter. b, Theoretical and experimental conversion
efficiencies for converting heat (from a source at the temperature indicated) to electricity, for a range of conversion approaches (sink temperature TA
is 300K). c, Limiting efficiency as a function of sunlight concentration for solar thermal conversion, with and without a selectively absorbing receiver
(TS=6,000K; TA=300K), compared with that of an infinite tandem cell and SQ single-junction cell limits, both under concentrated AM1.5D radiation.
The thermal limits apply to many of the approaches described in this Review, whereas the infinite tandem results represent upper limits for time-
symmetric systems. Panel b adapted from ref. 81, Nature Publishing Group, and ref. 82, Annual Reviews.
Figure 6b shows experimental efficiencies for converting heat Thermoelectrics. Thermoelectric devices generate voltage when
into electricity from a source at various temperatures, compared there is a temperature gradient across the junction between two
with Carnot limits81,82. For solar conversion, Stirling engines have dissimilar conductors, with doped p- and n-type semiconduc-
the highest experimental values for this stage, with overall solar-to- tors being the most effective combination (Fig.7c). Both electrons
electricity conversion efficiencies of 31.3% reported83 and less well- and holes migrate from the hot junction, which allows current to
substantiated 34% claimed84. Brayton cycles potentially offer higher flow between the cold terminals. Despite recent improvements in
efficiencies through increased operating temperatures. the dimensionless thermoelectric figure-of-merit, the ZT product,
However, very high equivalent temperatures can also be which were stimulated by investigations into new materials with
reached in ambient-temperature electronic systems owing to high Seebeck coefficients and low thermal but high electrical con-
exponential increases in carrier excitation, which we noted when ductivities81,82, demonstrated solar conversion efficiencies remain
discussing SQ limits. The effective emission temperature of elec- low, generally below 10%. As shown in Fig. 6c, much higher val-
troluminescent light with energy E is not the device temperature ues of the ZT product are required to compete with traditional heat
Tdev, but rather Tdev/(1qV/E), which becomes high at large inter- engines81,82. Thermodynamically, thermoelectrics has strong links to
nal voltages, V. Consequently, equation(1) also applies to an infi- hot carrier cells, which we discuss below.
nite stack of tandem cells under maximal concentration when all
are operated, slightly non-optimally, at a fixed fraction of Eg/q, Hot carrier cells. The loss in excess energy from energetic photons
to give fixed emission temperature12. In this case, operation at ideally can be avoided by storing this energy in photoexcited carrier
an effective temperature of 2,544 K poses no thermal problems, populations94. This requires slowing the normally rapid relaxation of
which is a fundamental advantage of photovoltaics over solar photogenerated carriers to the bandedge9496.
thermal approaches. One way to achieve this ideal is to select absorbers with favour-
To convert unconcentrated sunlight efficiently, a solar thermal able properties for reducing electron-to-phonon energy transfer 95.
receiver must display energy-selective absorption to avoid excessive A second way is to create phonon relaxation bottlenecks that slow
radiation back to the Sun. It must strongly absorb high-energy solar optical phonon relaxation, thereby creating hot phonons96. Carrier
photons, but strongly reflect those below a certain threshold to limit populations then equilibrate with these hot phonons, rather than
thermal emission. Figure6c shows the similar relationship for lim- with the ambient 96.
iting efficiency versus concentration ratio for an idealized thermal Because contacts must allow unrestricted bidirectional car-
converter and an infinite tandem cell stack. Although many of the rier interchange for low contact resistance, hot carriers in the
following approaches have limits identical to those of thermal con- absorber would be swamped by cooler contact carriers if inter-
version, in experiments they often fall further below the limits seen change between them occurred over the large energy range typical
for practical versus ideal heat engines (Fig.6b). of normal cells. The solution is to allow interchange over a restricted
1 n1 CB
Cladding
P P P
Scattering layer
Figure 8 | Alternative high-efficiency approaches. a, Time-asymmetric system with cell emission occurring in a different direction from sunlight
incidence, in this restricted acceptance angle implementation. Implementations for diffuse light pose additional challenges104. b, Absorption enhancement
in nanogeometries. The device in this case consists of a nanostructured stack of alternating high-index non-absorbing cladding material and low-index
active absorber (ni and ki are the real and imaginary parts of the refractive index for the different layers; di and D are layer thicknesses; i is the angle of
incidence onto the layers shown). c, Ferroelectric photovoltaic effect. Change in electric polarization direction (P) between different domains induces
band-bending across the domain well (DW). hf is the photon energy. Panel c adapted from ref. 115, Nature Publishing Group.
range97. Resonant tunnelling through quantum dots dispersed in For infinite tandem cells, the time-symmetric efficiency
a thin dielectric layer between the contact and the absorber may limit under concentrated AM1.5D sunlight is 86.0%. The time-
also provide a potential solution12 by restricting transport to nar- asymmetric limit is 92.8% at ambient temperature11 (25 C), but
row resonant energy ranges (Fig. 7d). Additional heavily doped approaches 100% at lower temperatures. The atmospheric window
semiconductors interposed between the dielectric and metal con- may provide sufficient cooling power to allow the heat dissipated
tact (Fig. 7d) can reinforce this selectivity 98. A balance is needed in a cell of this performance (<72Wm2) to be emitted radiatively
between the losses that result from excessively wide energy windows into cold space. This would allow operation at temperatures below
and the large contact resistances that result from excessively narrow ambient and thus further boost efficiency, although overall this is
energy windows98. an unlikely scenario.
One simple way of maintaining hot carriers is to heat the The use of light management 105, such as plasmonics, has been
absorber 99. The problem then is preventing heat loss to the ambient, suggested as another way to achieve high efficiencies. Interesting
which is also the case for thermoelectric devices, indicating some results include the reformulation of light-absorbing limits for thin
similarities. Geometries similar to Fig. 7d have been suggested for films using optical densities of states106, which can be enhanced
implementing both hot carrier cells and thermoelectric devices100. near interface boundaries (Fig. 8b)107. However, SQ limits already
A range of other hot-carrier issues continue to receive theoreti- assume perfect light absorption; such approaches therefore do not
cal attention. For example, if carriers are all extracted at the same provide paths to exceed SQ limits, but rather provide possibilities
energy, does scattering allow repopulation of the associated states for approaching them more closely.
quickly enough to maintain output current 101? Interest in ferroelectric photovoltaics108 has been rekindled by
Although theoretical challenges remain and experimental pro- the recent emergence of lead-halide perovskite cells109. Although the
gress is limited102, the hot carrier cell remains conceptually attractive operating principles of these cells are unresolved, ferroelectrics offer
as a long-term photovoltaic solution. The two-terminal configura- above-bandgap voltage output probably by the serial connection of
tion minimizes interconnection complexity, and ultrathin, strongly subdomains (Fig.8c). The efficiencies of such devices remain mod-
absorbing and radiatively efficient cells are essential for reducing est, despite recent improvements108.
material requirements. In addition, hot carrier cells have higher Other recent work combines the techniques described above. This
limits than solar thermal conversion and do not require high physi- context includes combinations already mentioned, such as photoe-
cal temperatures (subtle band engineering to combine conduction- lectric-enhanced thermionic emission93, optical hot carrier cells89,110
and valence-band temperatures at each carrier energy allows the and endothermic converters90, as well as up-converters combined
ultimate infinite-tandem limit to be reached103). with either down-converters or MEG. Some combinations enhance
the prospects for demonstrating practical improvements.
Other approaches
A key limitation one usually overlooked is that the SQ Overall assessment
approach and developments apply to normal time-symmetric sys- The present terrestrial photovoltaic manufacturing industry is
tems, although time symmetry is not an essential photovoltaic dominated by silicon cells, and the stranglehold of this technology
device property. Time asymmetry may allow, for example, a cell to is tightening 48. Small, decreasing market shares (<9% combined)
absorb light while suppressing the emission that is key to the SQ are held by CdTe, CIGS and a-Si thin-film modules (including a-Si/
approach, thereby increasing voltages and efficiencies. nc-Si tandems). For commercial space and concentrator cells, the
A more detailed study 104 has shown that energy conservation situation is different owing to different economic trade-offs. In these
forbids this asymmetry. The best possible result is for cells to emit applications, silicon has been displaced over the past two decades
light in different directions from that received104. Emitted light is by higher-efficiency GaInP/GaInAs/Ge triple-junction cells, both
then available for second-stage conversion, with emission from lattice-matched and metamorphic111.
this stage available for third-stage conversion, and so on (Fig.8a). Although concentrating photovoltaic cells provide early oppor-
Advantages become more pronounced as the efficiency of a single tunities for introducing advanced photovoltaics, herein lays a
stage increases. problem, albeit an agreeable one. The improvement rate of IIIV
multijunction cells has been the strongest and most sustained of all Regardless of the path taken by industry, photovoltaics are now
photovoltaic technologies6. Costs, although high, are already close assured to have a major role in the future supply of energy on Earth,
to the requirements of large-scale applications, with further reduc- with increasing interest in high efficiencies as a way of reducing
tions expected as manufacturing volumes increase. Without realis- system costs112. Exploiting materials and designs to achieve success-
tic prospects for efficiencies over 50% and some compelling market ful photovoltaic implementations will continue to be an important
advantages, prospects for other advanced concentrator approaches research area well into the future.
seem to be extremely limited.
Applications in Space may provide other opportunities, not with Received 15 February 2016; accepted 23 May 2016;
the aim of replacing IIIV multijunctions, but instead for use as published online 20 December 2016
thermal converters, through approaches such as thermionics, ther-
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Photon. 9, 6167 (2015). The authors declare no competing financial interests.