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Metabical Case: Demand Estimation(Forecasting) Approaches

Method 1: by looking at the number of overweight individuals in the United States

Quantity No. of users who


in No. of repurchase completed the course
Millions users (in millions) (in millions) Total Sales
Total Population 209
Population with BMI between
25 to 30 71.06
Population trying to lose weight
(35%) 24.871
Population comfortable with
weight-loss drugs (15%) 3.731
Year 1 0.373 0.223839 0.0447678 0.6416718
Year 2 0.560 0.3357585 0.0671517 0.9625077
Year 3 0.746 0.447678 0.0895356 1.2833436
Year 4 0.933 0.5595975 0.1119195 1.6041795
Year 5 1.119 0.671517 0.1343034 1.9250154
Sales across 5 years 6.416718
R&D Cost 400
Marketing Cost 23
Annual manufacturing Fixed
Costs for 5 years@1.2 6
Total Costs 429

Net Profit
75 -108.2
125 103.6
150 212.7

ROI (for 5 years)


75 -0.252
125 0.241
150 0.496

Method 2: by looking at the number of respondents ready to request a prescription

Quantity No. of users who


in No. of repurchase completed the course
Millions users (in millions) (in millions) Total Sales
Total Population 209
Population with BMI between
25 to 30 71.06
Respondemts ready for
prescription (12%) 8.527
Year 1 0.853 0.512 0.102 1.467
Year 2 1.279 0.767 0.153 2.200
Year 3 1.705 1.023 0.205 2.933
Year 4 2.132 1.279 0.256 3.667
Year 5 2.558 1.535 0.307 4.400
Sales across 5 years 14.667

R&D Cost 400


Marketing Cost 23
Annual manufacturing Fixed
Costs for 5 years@1.2 6
Total Costs 429

Net Profit
75 304.339
125 788.343
150 1037.678

ROI (5 years)
75 0.709
125 1.838
150 2.419

Method 3: by looking at the number of respondents ready to request a prescription

Quantity No. of users who


in No. of repurchase completed the course
Millions users (in millions) (in millions) Total Sales
Total Population 209
Population with BMI between 25 71.06

Educated females (35 to 65 yrs


age) with BMI between 25-30 4.3
Year 1 1.290 0.774 0.1548 2.2188
Year 2 1.505 0.903 0.1806 2.5886
Year 3 1.720 1.032 0.2064 2.9584
Year 4 1.935 1.161 0.2322 3.3282
Year 5 2.150 1.29 0.258 3.698
Sales across 5 years 14.792
R&D Cost 400
Marketing Cost 23
Annual manufacturing Fixed
Costs for 5 years@1.2 6
Total 429

Net Profit
75 310.6
125 798.736
150 1050.2

ROI
75 0.724
125 1.862
150 2.448
hes

United States

percentage of
population

34

35

15
10
15
20
25
30

a prescription

percentage of
population

34
12
10
15
20
25
30

a prescription

percentage of
population

34

10
15
20
25
30