RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18 13 NOV 2017

Finolex Industries
BUY
INDUSTRY PIPES
Betting on volume growth
2QFY18 was a muted quarter for Finolex Industries Equipped with a strong brand, the ability to
CMP (as on 13 Nov 17) Rs 696 (Finolex), as (1) Despite volume growth (23% YoY in backward integrate, a strong balance sheet, and high
Target Price Rs 861 Pipes & Fittings and 2% YoY in PVC resin), overall return ratios, we believe that Finolex offers several
revenues grew marginally by 4% YoY to Rs 4.7bn, and years of compounding potential. Maintain BUY. Our
Nifty 10,225 (2) Realisation per tonne declined in both segments SOTP TP stands at Rs 861.
Sensex 33,034 (-2% YoY in PVC resin to ~68/kg and -16% YoY in
KEY STOCK DATA Pipes & Fittings to ~Rs 90/kg) , (3) The plant Steady ramp-up in capacity: Finolexs cumulative Pipes
shutdown in Q2FY18 led to a ~Rs 360mn increase in & Fittings capacity stands at 290k MT. The company
Bloomberg FNXP IN
costs, which weighed on the companys overall plans to add 150k MT capacity, and the complete
No. of Shares (mn) 124
performance. EBIT margins for PVC resin fell 642bps benefit of the same is expected to accrue by 2020. Of
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 86/1,318 this, almost 50k MT could be used for CPVC. The
YoY to 13.6%, and EBIT margins for Pipes & Fittings
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 43 estimated outlay for this expansion is Rs 2.5bn over
fell 295bps to 3.2%. While absolute EBITDA de-grew
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) by ~43% YoY, margins declined 861 bps to 10.4%. FY17-20, of which Finolex has invested Rs 1.2bn, and
52 Week high / low Rs 756/381 PAT de-grew by ~45% YoY to Rs 283mn. the remaining will be invested in the next two years.
3M 6M 12M
Going forward, we believe there are multiple triggers Distribution: Finolex enjoys a pan-India presence, with
Absolute (%) 21.0 17.9 60.3
for Finolexs volume and profitability growth. These ~850 dealers and ~18K retail touch points. Almost 50%
Relative (%) 15.2 8.5 37.1 are (1) Govts focus on the agriculture and housing of the dealers are present in rural areas, and the rest in
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) sectors, (2) Company envisages to increase the share urban. The companys operations are focused on South
of non-agri demand in its revenue pie (from 30% and West India, which contribute 70%+ to the top-line.
Promoters 52.5
currently to ~50% over four to five years), (3) A Finolex had added 150 SKUs for CPVC pipes.
FIs & Local MFs 8.1
FPIs 4.2 ramp-up of higher-margin CPVC volumes over the Near-term outlook: Ramp-up in the CPVC business,
near term, and (4) GST tailwinds. focus on non-agri (with higher margin fittings).
Public & Others 35.2
Source : BSE Financial Summary
(Rs mn) 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (%) 1QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Net Sales 4,753 4,568 4 7,307 (35) 29,876 32,014 36,238 40,837
EBIDTA 496 870 (43) 1,306 (62) 5,630 5,019 5,933 6,977
APAT 283 513 (45) 798 (65) 3,522 3,081 3,693 4,395
Diluted adj. EPS (Rs/sh) 2.3 4.1 (45) 6.4 (65) 28.4 24.8 29.8 35.4
Basanth Patil P/E (x) 24.5 28.0 23.4 19.7
basanth.patil@hdfcsec.com RoE (%) 18.2 13.0 14.5 15.9
+91-22-6171-7319 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
 FINOLEX INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Quarterly Financials Snapshot

4% YoY growth in net sales, Particulars 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (%) 1QFY18 QoQ (%)
despite a drop in realisation Net Sales 4,753 4,568 4.0 7,307 -35.0
(Realisation decline of ~16% Material Expenses 3,134 2,662 17.7 4,883 -35.8
in Pipes & Fittings and ~2% in Employee Expenses 285 254 12.2 285 0.0
PVC resin) Other Operating Expenses 838 782 7.2 832 0.7
EBITDA 496 870 -43.0 1,306 -62.0
Depreciation 151 139 9.0 145 4.3
Significant margin drop in the EBIT 345 731 -52.9 1,161 -70.3
PVC resin segment (EBIT Other Income (including EO) 109 89 22.2 38 184.2
margin at 13.6% in 2QFY18 vs. Interest Cost 38 33 17.2 30 28.2
20% in 2QFY17) PBT 416 788 -47.3 1,170 -64.5
Tax 133 275 -51.7 372 -64.3
RPAT 283 513 -44.9 798 -64.5
Pipes & Fittings EBIT margin
APAT 283 513 -44.9 798 -64.5
was at 3.2% in 2QFY18 vs.
Adj EPS 283 513 -44.9 798 -64.5
6.1% in 2QFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Margin Analysis
2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (bps) 1QFY18 QoQ (bps)
Material Expenses % Net Sales 65.9 58.3 764.8 66.8 (89.6)
RM spread (PVC/EDC delta) Employee Expenses % Net Sales 6.0 5.6 43.6 3.9 209.8
was at ~700 USD/MT in Other Expenses % Net Sales 17.6 17.1 52.5 11.4 624.3
2QFY18 EBITDA Margin (%) 10.4 19.0 (860.9) 17.9 (744.4)
Tax Rate (%) 31.9 34.9 (292.5) 31.8 12.4
APAT Margin (%) 6.0 11.2 (528.2) 10.9 (496.6)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 FINOLEX INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Pipes And Fittings: Quarterly Trends

Trend In Volumes Of Pipes Trend In Volumes Of Fittings
Pipes & Fittings is a key Finolex's Pipes Volumes YoY growth (%) - RHS Finolex's Fittings Volumes YoY growth (%) - RHS
segment in Finolex, and 80,000
in MT
30% 5,000 in MT 20%
contributes ~50% to the 63,387 68,171 4,500
4,306 4,117 4,214
70,000 62,255 59,865
25% 3,870 4,048 15%
companys revenue 60,000 20%
4,000
3,314 3,347
3,500 3,282 10%
50,000 43,032 15% 3,000
39,163 37,652 5%
40,000 34,218 10% 2,500
2,000 0%
30,000 5%
1,500 -5%
20,000 0%
1,000
10,000 -5% -10%
500
0 -10% 0 -15%
Q3FY16

Q4FY16

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY16

Q4FY16

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18
We expect the proportion of Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
higher-margin fittings to
gradually increase in the
overall volumes of the Trend In Revenue Of Pipes & Fittings Quarterly Trend In EBIT Margin Of Pipes & Fittings
company Revenue from Pipes & Fittings YoY growth (%) - RHS Pipes & Fittings - Segmental EBIT Margin (%) RHS
Rs mn Rs mn
8,000 16% 700 10%
6,981 6,892 9%
7,000 6,310 6,581 14% 600
8%
6,000 12% 500 7%
5,000 4,446 4,250 10% 6%
4,073 4,100 400
4,000 8% 5%
In FY17, the average EBIT 300 4%
3,000 6%
margin for Pipes & Fittings 2,000 4%
200 3%
2%
stood at ~8% 1,000 2% 100
1%
0 0% 0 0%

Q3FY16

Q4FY16

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18
Q3FY16

Q4FY16

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 FINOLEX INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

PVC Resin : Quarterly Trends

Trend In Volume Of PVC Resin Trend In Revenue Of PVC
Finolex's PVC volume sales YoY growth (%) - RHS PVC Revenue YoY growth (%) - RHS
Increasingly, a larger in MT
7,000 Rs mn 25%
90,000 83,093 76,541 25% 6,069
proportion of PVC resin is 80,000 74,998
20% 6,000 5,285 20%
used for captive consumption, 70,000 60,542 62,435 4,979
56,766 15% 5,000 4,336 4,379
production of pipes and 60,000 3,884 15%
fittings. 50,000 10% 4,000
39,902 40,539 2,759 2,742 10%
40,000 5% 3,000
30,000 5%
0% 2,000
20,000 0%
-5% 1,000
10,000
0 -10% 0 -5%

Q3FY16

Q4FY16

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18
Q3FY16

Q4FY16

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Trend In EBIT Margin Of PVC

The average EBIT margin for
PVC - Segmental EBIT Margin (%) RHS
the PVC segment stood at
~16% in 1HFY18, mainly on 1,400 Rs mn 25%
account of a favourable 1,200
PVC/EDC spread. 20%
1,000
800 15%

600 10%
400
5%
200
0 0%
Q3FY16

Q4FY16

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 FINOLEX INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Financials
The top line is expected to Key Assumptions
grow at ~11% CAGR over FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
FY17-20E Volumes (MT)
Pipes and fittings 208,763 209,339 236,958 266,814 297,986
% YoY 12.4% 0.3% 13.2% 12.6% 11.7%
PVC resin 248,177 235,644 252,558 271,364 288,995
% YoY 2.1% -5.1% 7.2% 7.4% 6.5%

Segment EBIT margin (in %)

Pipes and fittings 7.9% 7.7% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%
PVC resin 11.6% 20.0% 17.0% 17.3% 17.5%
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Peer Valuations
Mcap CMP TP P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x)
Rating
(Rs bn) (Rs) (Rs) FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E
Supreme Industries 142 1,118 NR - 50.3 58.4 66.5 18.9 15.6 13.5 7.5 6.5 5.7
Astral Poly Technik 92 765 NR - 50.6 37.4 33.0 28.2 22.5 19.4 9.0 7.4 6.2
Finolex Industries 86 696 BUY 861 28.0 23.4 19.7 17.3 14.6 12.3 3.5 3.3 3.0
The EBIT margin for PVC Source: HDFC sec Inst Research
segment stood at ~20% in
FY17, mainly on account of Change In Estimates
favourable PVC/EDC spread. Previous New % Chg
Rs mn
FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E
Net Sales 28,544 32,185 32,014 36,238 12% 13%
EBIT 4,863 5,720 4,444 5,340 -9% -7%
APAT 3,189 3,796 3,081 3,693 -3% -3%
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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 FINOLEX INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Income Statement Balance Sheet

Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Net Revenues 28,431 29,876 32,014 36,238 40,837 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 14.8 5.1 7.2 13.2 12.7 Share Capital - Equity 1,241 1,241 1,241 1,241 1,241
Material Expenses 20,089 19,948 21,139 23,819 26,719 Reserves 14,458 21,673 23,264 25,158 27,753
Power & Fuel expenses 872 707 757 857 966 Total Shareholders Funds 15,699 22,914 24,505 26,399 28,994
Employee Expenses 925 1,049 1,124 1,272 1,434 Minority Interest - - - - -
Other Operating Expenses 2,501 2,542 3,975 4,356 4,741 Long Term Debt 1,117 942 792 642 492
EBITDA 4,044 5,630 5,019 5,933 6,977 Short Term Debt - - - - -
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.2 18.8 15.7 16.4 17.1 Total Debt 1,117 942 792 642 492
EBITDA Growth (%) 113.4 39.2 (10.8) 18.2 17.6 Net Deferred Taxes 1,205 909 909 909 909
Depreciation 506 550 576 593 610 Long Term Provisions & Others 644 728 728 728 728
EBIT 3,539 5,080 4,444 5,340 6,367 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 18,664 25,493 26,934 28,678 31,123
Other Income (Including EO APPLICATION OF FUNDS
641 243 209 188 169
Items) Net Block 8,496 8,551 8,575 8,583 8,573
Interest 447 153 130 108 85 CWIP 66 217 233 264 297
PBT 3,733 5,170 4,522 5,421 6,451 Investments 8,172 12,222 12,722 13,222 13,722
Tax (Incl Deferred) 1,189 1,648 1,441 1,728 2,056 Other non-current assets 698 936 986 1,036 1,086
Minority Interest & Profit/loss Total Non-current Assets 17,433 21,926 22,516 23,104 23,678
- - - - -
from associates
Inventories 4,472 5,574 5,967 6,728 7,948
RPAT 2,544 3,522 3,081 3,693 4,395
Debtors 176 525 582 659 817
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - - - - -
Loans and advances 1,231 930 640 725 817
APAT 2,544 3,522 3,081 3,693 4,395
Cash & Equivalents 104 163 223 461 892
APAT Growth (%) 432.8 38.4 (12.5) 19.9 19.0
Total Current Assets 5,983 7,192 7,412 8,572 10,474
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 20.5 28.4 24.8 29.8 35.4
Creditors 2,432 2,275 2,387 2,446 2,517
EPS Growth (%) 432.8 38.4 (12.5) 19.9 19.0
Other Current Liabilities &
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research 2,319 1,350 607 552 511
Provisions
Total Current Liabilities 4,751 3,625 2,994 2,998 3,028
Net Current Assets 1,232 3,567 4,419 5,574 7,446
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 18,664 25,493 26,934 28,678 31,123
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 FINOLEX INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Cash Flow Key Ratios

Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Reported PBT 3,733 5,170 4,522 5,421 6,451 PROFITABILITY (%)
Interest expenses 357 115 130 108 85 GPM 29.3 33.2 34.0 34.3 34.6
Depreciation 506 551 576 593 610 EBITDA Margin 14.2 18.8 15.7 16.4 17.1
Working Capital Change 2,299 (1,531) (843) (967) (1,490) APAT Margin 8.9 11.8 9.6 10.2 10.8
Tax Paid (663) (1,752) (1,441) (1,728) (2,056) RoE 21.6 18.2 13.0 14.5 15.9
Others (290) (211) (209) (188) (169) RoIC (or Core RoCE) 27.5 35.7 22.8 25.8 28.4
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 5,941 2,342 2,735 3,238 3,430 RoCE 16.7 16.4 12.1 13.5 14.9
Capex (312) (936) (616) (631) (633) EFFICIENCY
Free cash flow (FCF) 5,629 1,405 2,120 2,607 2,797 Tax Rate (%) 31.8 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9
Investments (927) 1,229 (500) (500) (500) Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.8
Non-operating Income 432 186 209 188 169 Inventory (days) 57.4 68.1 68.0 67.8 71.0
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (807) 479 (907) (943) (965) Debtors (days) 2.3 6.4 6.6 6.6 7.3
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (4,126) (1,174) (150) (150) (150) Other Current Assets (days) 15.8 11.4 7.3 7.3 7.3
Interest Expenses (439) (162) (130) (108) (85) Payables (days) 31.2 27.8 27.2 24.6 22.5
FCFE 1,064 70 1,840 2,350 2,562 Other Current Liab & Provi (days) 29.8 16.5 6.9 5.6 4.6
Share Capital Issuance - - - - - Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 14.5 41.6 47.8 51.5 58.6
Dividend (291) (1,474) (1,489) (1,799) (1,799) Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Others (298) 48 - - - Net D/E (x) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0)
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (5,153) (2,761) (1,769) (2,057) (2,034) Interest Coverage (x) 7.9 33.1 34.2 49.7 74.9
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (19) 59 59 238 431 PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
Opening bal of Cash & Cash Equ 123 104 164 223 461 EPS 20.5 28.4 24.8 29.8 35.4
Closing Cash & Equivalents 104 164 223 461 893 CEPS 24.6 32.8 29.5 34.5 40.3
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Dividend 2.0 10.0 11.5 12.0 14.5
Book Value 126.5 184.6 197.5 212.7 233.6
VALUATION
P/E (x) 34.0 24.5 28.0 23.4 19.7
P/BV (x) 5.5 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 21.6 15.5 17.3 14.6 12.3
EV/Revenues (x) 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1
OCF/EV (%) 6.8 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.0
FCF/EV (%) 6.4 1.6 2.4 3.0 3.3
FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 1.2 0.1 2.1 2.7 3.0
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
 FINOLEX INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Finolex Inds TP Date CMP Reco Target
900 8-May-17 562 BUY 760
29-May-17 598 BUY 765
800
13-Nov-17 696 BUY 861
700

600

500

400

300 Rating Definitions

BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Aug-17
Apr-17
Jan-17

Feb-17

Jul-17

Sep-17
Nov-16

Nov-17
Jun-17
May-17
Dec-16

Mar-17

Oct-17
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

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 FINOLEX INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

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 FINOLEX INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

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