First PRC national workshop, 6-7 April 2010

Impacts, adaptation, and

strategies of climate change in a
coastal city, Southeast China

Wenzhi Cao
Environmental Science Research Centre,
Xiamen University
Email: wzcao@xmu.edu.cn

Environmental Science
Research Centre
Outline

1 Summary of climate change in Asian
and China;

2 Introduction to Xiamen;

3 Preliminary impacts of climate change;

4 Current adaptation and strategies;

5 Research needs and gaps

Environmental Science
Research Centre
1 Summary: climate change in Asian

A more recent assessment by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) finds that global warming is unequivocal (IPCC, 2007;
Kerr, 2007) based on mounting evdence from observations of increases
in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice, and rising of global average sea level.

The report also shows that global mean surface temperatures have
risen by 0.74°C ±0.18°C over the last 100 years (1906–2005) and the
rate of warming over the last 50 years is almost double that over the
last 100 years and is projected to continuously increase over the 21st
century (IPCC, 2007).

In fact, climate model simulations project that for the first half of the
twenty-first century, globally averaged surface temperature will warm
1.3°C–1.8°C (IPCC, 2007). However, warming is stronger in many parts
of Asia with surface temperature above the global mean, and a
complicated spatial pattern since 1900s.

The surface temperature projections similarly show a strong warming
(3.3°C), which is much greater than the global mean, and show an
increase in annual precipitation with particular summer precipitation
over the 21st century for South and East Asia (IPCC, 2007).

Environmental Science
Research Centre
Climate change in China

In China, the observed maximum and minimum temperatures
increase by 0.352°C and 0.548°C per decade, respectively, with
diurnal temperature range declining in the eastern and
southern coastal areas where rapid urbanization has occurred
since 1978 (Zhou et al., 2004).

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to
increase in China, resulting in more severe warm but less
severe cold extremes during the century (Gao et al., 2002; Xu
et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007a).

Generally, the observed precipitation intensity increased in last
50 years, however, wet days significantly declined, and
frequency of extreme heavy precipitation events increased in
most parts of China, particularly in the South.

Environmental Science
Research Centre
Climate change in China

The IPCC report also reveals that increases in weather and
climate extreme events will occur, and would be exacerbated by
climate change. These changes in the frequency or intensity of
extreme weather and climate events would have profound
impacts on both human society and the natural environment
(Easterling et al., 2000; IPCC, 2007b).

Urban areas are vulnerable to effects of climate change,
particularly extreme climate and weather events such as floods,
storm surges, drought and heat waves (IPCC, 2007b).

49.4% of the world’s population lives in cities in 2007, and it is
predicted that 59.7% of the world’s population will live in cities
by 2030, with this percentage continuing to rise to the end of
the century (UN, 2008).

The combination of rapidly increasing urbanization and the
tendency of global warming indicate an urgent need for more
and noval adaptation to significantly reduce many potentially
dangerous impacts of climate change and reduce the risk of
many key vulnerabilities.
Environmental Science
Research Centre
 2 Introduction to Xiamen
2.1 Xiamen city: a coastal city

Xiamen situates at the mouth of
Jiulong River and on the
southeastern coast of Fujian province,
in Southeast China and is actually an
island connected by causeway to the
mainland. It covers an area of 1565
km2, comprising Xiamen Island
proper, Gulangyu (Gulang islet) and
the coastal part of mainland.

Xiamen has a subtropical oceanic
monsoon climate, with an average
annual temperature of approximately
21℃, and average annual rainfall of
1200 mm. On average, there are
three to four tropical storms
(typhoon) annually but concentrated
mainly from July to September
landed in Xiamen. Owing to the short
flow path and small catchment area
of rivers in Xiamen, 80% of drinking
water and and other water uses are
diverted from a coastal river – the
Jiulong river through a canal system.
Environmental Science
Research Centre
2.2 Rapid urban expansion

1973

1993

Built-up (impervious) area has expanded from less 2007

than 20 km2 in 1981 to 180 km2 in 2007.
Environmental Science
Research Centre
3 Local impacts of climate change in Xiamen

With the rapid urban expansion and economic development in the
context of climat change, Xiamen has been facing many
challenges:

water shortage due to small catchment and poor water quality of
diversion from the Jiulong river;

heat waves and urban heat island (UHI) due to global warming and
increasing impermeable surface areas and dense buildings;

urban flooding due to heavy precipitation from tropical storm or
typhoon and coincidence with ocean rising tide;

urban drought due to low flow and prolonged dry weather;

poor water quality and eutrophication of the Jiulong river;

frenquent red tides in the coastal sea due to pollutant discharges and
urban runoff;

sea level rises, and combination with storm surges.

Today Xiamen is looking forward to expanding into a greater bay
metropolis. However, water resource availability and other
environmental issues combined with climate change, in
particularly, water quantity and quality of the Jiulong river
enhance the challenge.
Environmental Science
Research Centre
3.1 Water resource shortage

280

260

240

Millon m3
220

200

180

160

Year
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Water diversion from the Jiulong River

Water diversion from the Jiulong

River is the main drinking water
source Environmental Science
Research Centre
Changes in annual and seasonal water flow in the Jiulong River

Annual change
Piecewise linear fitting model

Fall
Spring

Summer Winter

Environmental Science
Research Centre
 Changes in seasonal rainfall in the Jiulong River

1400 1400

annual rainfall annual rainfall

1200 total trend total trend
1200 partial trends
partial trends

1000
1000

Rainfall£¨mm£©
Rainfall£¨mm£©

800
800
600

600
400

400
200
Spring Summer
Year Year
0 200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Environmental Science
Research Centre
3.2 Heat waves and UHI

39.5 21.8
39.0 21.6

average temperature
temperature（℃）
38.5 21.4

extreme maximum
38.0 21.2

（℃）
temperature
37.5 21.0
37.0 20.8
36.5 20.6
36.0 20.4
35.5 20.2
35.0 20.0
34.5 19.8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
year

extreme maximum temperature average temperature

The observed average daily temperatures increased by 0.16°C per decade

since 1980s, and this trend was accelerated by 0.23 °C since 1989, with
obvious temeratures increases (warm) in winter. Environmental Science
Research Centre
 3.3 Typhoon and extreme precipitation

800

700

600
Rainfall (mm)

500

400 4

300

3
Year
200
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Number
2

Environmental Science
Year
0 Research Centre
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
3.4 Urban flooding

In 18 May 2006, influenced by

Typhoon “Pearl”, the precipitation
reached 257.6 mm in 24 hours，
and the urban runoff was jacked by
high tide. This resulted in a heavy
urban flooding and traffic
interruption in many streets. The
depths of surface ponding were
0.4-0.6 m, with maximum of 1m in
some places.

Environmental Science
Research Centre
4 Current local adaptation and strategies
4.1 Existing adaptation and strategies

Some practical adaptation strategies have been employed mainly
for improving the city’s environmental quality. For instances, the
city adopted strategies of

increasing green space;

increasing public awareness;

rejecting pollution;

setting and implementing environmental standards, and

actions for increasing green space centered on increasing
afforestation, public green space, scenic green space, road
afforestation, and green space inside residential areas.

To date, green space accounts for 40 to 45% coverage in
Xiamen.

In addition, widely built street arcade at shopping areas,
providing necessary protection from direct summer sunshine,
storm, and heavy vehicle traiffic, can be identified a practical
behavioural adaptation to variable seasonal thermal conditions in
Xiamen.
Environmental Science
Research Centre
 Street arcade in shopping center
 provide necessary protection from direct
summer sunshine, storm, and heavy vehicle
traiffic.
Sprinkling with reclaimed
wastewater
 sprinkling and water stored in the
pavement effectively lower the air
temperature by removing heat from
ground surface.
High-reflectance materials and
coating
 Cool buildings and save energy.
Environmental Science
Research Centre

Open up some new water sources
Fangyang reservoir
The second water diverting
sources
 Provide >200 million m3 yr-1 for Xiamen (2016)
Cover the open channel to Xiamen
Cover the diverting 80%
 Reducing evaporation
 Avoiding pollution
Xiamen City

Develop seawater desalination

technology
 Electro-membrane method
 Cost: 80 to 9 RMB t-1
Environmental Science
Research Centre

Low impact development
Green roof
 Delay runoff up to 200 min
 Improve air quality
 Cool the building in summer

Pervious pavements
 Delay runoff up to 30 min
 Prolong evaporation and cool the surface
 Retain pollution

Environmental Science
Research Centre

A model city for water-
saving
 Water consumption is 17.32 m3
per unit GDP (90% of national
standard);
 Water reuse efficiency of
industry water reach 89.4% ;
 Reclaimed water reuse (saving
water and mitigating urban heat
island)

Environmental Science
Research Centre
4.2 Problems for current adaptation and strategies

Although a variety of existing practices and measures designed

for adaptation mainly coping with local current climate variability
based on historical climate changes can also increase resilience to
long-term climate change (IPCC, 2007b).

Projected climate change and consequences are expected to
exacerbate current stresses and crises on these environmetal
issues from population growth, economic expansion, and
urbanization, particularly for those parts of urban functions
dependent on resources that are sensitive to changes in climate,
and pose new risks often outside the range of experience, such
as impacts from drought, heatwaves, and typhoon intensity (Patz,
2002; Barnett et al., 2005).

These impacts are felt by both people and the urban
infrastructure. Therefore, adaptation measures will be needed in
addition to continuing mitigation to reduce the impacts of the
residual warming (McEvoy et al., 2006; van Vuurena et al., 2008).

Environmental Science
Research Centre
 5 Research needs and gaps

much of the work undertaken worldwide in relation

to climate change and impacts has concentrated on
mitigation, for example, focusing on methodologies
to reduce future CO2 emissions through energy
efficiency, the development of renewable energy
sources and associated building integration of these
technologies (Gwilliam et al., 2006). However,
appropriate adaptation and strategies should
therefore be identified and considered.

Environmental Science
Research Centre
5 Research needs and gaps

The IPCC report (IPCC, 2007b), as well as many studies in
China provide a state-scale adaptation strategies, typically
for agriculture and food production (e.g., Lin and Huang,
1995; Cai and Smit, 1996; Xiao et al., 2006), forest
ecosystems (e.g., Li et al., 1996), water resources (e.g.,
Xia et al., 2008; Zhang, 2008).

Research on adaptation to climate change in urban areas
to reduce impacts of water deficiency, heat waves (UHI) ,
drought on urban functions and public health is rarely
reported in China.

It is essential to bridge the gap and to develop more local-
scale adaptation and measures in urban area, particularly
in Xiamen, this would greatly promote and enhance
adaptation capacity in Xiamen city, and provide adaptation
showcase to climate change at city scale in south and
southeast China.
Environmental Science
Research Centre
5 Research needs and gaps

Significant knowledge gaps and other technological
and financial problems could constraint further
implementing adaptation (Smith, 2005; IPCC, 2007b).

to quantify observational changes in precipitation and
temperature since 1970s with urbanization, and consequent
streamflow change of the Jiulong river based on historical
datasets;

to assess vulnerability and risk, finally to analyze the
combined effects of ongoing urbanization and climate change;

to develop and improve adaptation, strategies and responses
for controlling impacts of climate change on urban functions
and public health;

to assess economic costs/benefits of these adaptation and
strategies.
Environmental Science
Research Centre
Thank you!

Environmental Science
Research Centre