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To cite this article: Sameer Deshkar, Yoshitsugu Hayashia & Yasuhiro Mori (2011): An alternative
approach for planning the resilient cities in developing countries, International Journal of Urban
Sciences, 15:1, 1-14
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International Journal of Urban Sciences
Vol. 15, No. 1, April 2011, 114
Background
With the current rapid pace of urbanization, almost 54% of the urban population of
the world will be concentrated in Asia by the year 2050. Along with these
urbanization trends, reported natural disasters have also been exponentially
increasing in Asia. The Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZ) have been the most
aected areas, accounting, on average, for 85% of people killed between 2000 and
2008. The results from climate change, such as heavy rainfall, heatwaves, oods,
storms, res, droughts, etc., are also projected to put greater stress on economic
growth, natural resource availability, the provision of amenities and the sustenance
of urban areas (Wilbanks et al., 2007).
At the same time, the conventional adopted path of urbanization in most of the
developing countries, including India, contributes to the rising vulnerability of urban
centres to natural calamities and social conicts. The concentration of economic
activities in urban areas and subsequent rapid pace of urbanization is blamed for the
development of hazardous areas, degradation of environmentally valuable areas and
the rise of slums, squatters and urban poverty. The cities in developing countries are
grappling with the issues of overcrowding, reduced levels of basic amenities,
infrastructure failures under immense pressures for supply with limited availability
of natural resources, forced environmental migrations, increasing trends of
epidemics, and natural calamities. The increasing vulnerabilities and adverse
environmental conditions under climate change scenarios thus make it critical to
achieve and maintain QoL in urban locations.
Against this background, there is a need to critically examine urbanization
processes and spatial development policies with the intention of generating resilient
communities. With an ever-increasing trend for natural disasters, the concept of
disaster resiliency, an approach that deals with maintaining a balance and returning
a system to its original state after a disturbance, is rapidly gaining recognition. It is
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With over 25% of the total urban population categorized as urban poor (NSSO,
2004) and an estimated urban housing shortage of 26.53 million dwelling units
(MHUPA, 2011), the cities have become the most vulnerable locations. The high
concentration of economic and social assets has resulted in unplanned and
inadequate development activities. The urban locations also suer from extremely
high levels of damage from natural disasters. The recent urban oods in various
parts of India have revealed the negative side of development activities.
centres (Figure 1). Over the next 15 years, India will experience dramatic settlement
transitions, with an estimated 70 cities having a population exceeding 1 million. Of
the nearly 28% per cent total urban population (Census, 2001), around 68% live in
class-I cities with a population of over 100,000 (Eleventh FYP, 2006).
At the same time, detailed decadal studies on the trends of migration indicate a
general deceleration in ruralurban migration. However, in terms of gender,
migration studies infer that rural women are joining their families who have already
migrated to the urban centres and that family migration toward urban regions has
increased (Kundu, 2006). This has necessitated a large-scale enhancement of the
urban infrastructure to support the fast-growing urban population. However, the
municipal bodies, which are responsible for the provision of basic services, are
struggling with limited nancial resources and capacities. Hence, in order to increase
the economic base, huge urban infrastructure reform projects have been planned
under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), with a
vision to create cities as places of hope. These will be supported with a US$ 10
Figure 2. (a) GDP growth and urban population. (b) GDP growth and disaster aected
population.
International Journal of Urban Sciences 5
for people. Generally, a better QoL also means improved resiliency. However, this
does not seem to be the case, because GDP growth does not reduce the disaster-
aected population (Figure 2(b)). The focus on the industrial economy has created
lopsided growth and resulted in a rise of vulnerable groups depending on primary
economic occupations, who migrate towards huge urban centres in order to improve
their livelihood.
Thus, regional economic imbalance, together with inadequate and poor life
support services in rural areas, acts as a catalyst for large scale migration towards
mega-cities and urban regions. At the same time, inadequate infrastructures and lack
of access to urban amenities expose the migrated poor populations to vulnerable
situations in cities. However, the hypothesis that development can improve living
conditions in rural areas and thereby curb migration may not always prove correct.
Development may lead to improved access to cities as a result of increased literacy
and awareness in the rural areas facilitating better income opportunities in urban
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regions (Rhoda, 1983), thereby again encouraging migration towards urban areas.
But developmental eorts may also create weaker institutions in the rural regions,
making policy preparation and implementation critical.
Various studies conducted on underdeveloped and problematic regions such as
parts of Chhatisgharh state, Naxal movement areas on the borders of Maharashtra
and Andhra Pradesh, etc., demonstrate the conicting benets and decits resulting
from industrialization. Developing areas benet from large industries that provide
employment to the locals in exchange for natural resource extractions. However, the
livelihoods of tribal populations as well as their traditional rights over natural
resources are not given due consideration in the implementation of such
development projects. The failure of resettlement and rehabilitation programmes
for the project aected populations (PAPs) also induces displacement and
marginalization of the tribal communities. Thus, the economic imbalance resulting
from the inux of migrant populations from poorer rural areas creates a burden for
urban areas with inadequate capacity and infrastructure to accommodate them.
poor population to settle illegally in derelict and hazardous areas. The slum
populations living in such locations are also subjected to seasonal displacement
resulting from ooding and res. The urban poor are also exposed to unhygienic
conditions, food insecurity and malnutrition. Overall, the health of the urban poor is
worse than that of their rural counterparts. The grievousness of the situation can be
anticipated from the fact that almost 22.6% of the total urban population of India
lives in slums (Census of India, 2001). Thus, the established practices for planning
and development in cities often lead to an accumulation of inequality, margin-
alization and disaster risk over time (Pelling, 2007).
environmental migration of the population. Climate change may force the increase
of ruralurban migration by catalyzing the ongoing agrarian crisis in rural India
(Revi, 2008). The possible urban migration resulting from the rising vulnerabilities of
the mega-cities and towards a lower order of urban regions could have even greater
impacts on provision of infrastructures and services. The life expectancy of the
migrating mega-city population would be much higher than that of the receiving
lower order urban region. The population of migrants will be subjected to greater
risks not just resulting from their displacement but also from the new urban
environments that are already under stress. The quality of life that could be oered
to the displaced population in the new urban environments would be the result of the
issues existing in the urban areas rather than the actual requirements of the displaced
population. Thus, the urban risks compounded by risks from infrastructure failures,
environmental hazards, and rising poor and vulnerable populations can jeopardize
the safety of cities.
human environments. The adverse and undesirable conditions for the survival and
continuation of the components of the human environments are usually projected as
the concerns for safety and security in the estimation of QoL.
Such conditions could be manifested through an extreme event or a series of non-
extreme events caused either as part of the interactions between the components or
as an external event or events catalyzed by the external event. Social safety includes
the following: crime rate, physical safety in terms of trac accidents, and health
problems. These problems arise as a result of human system interactions during
natural disasters. These disasters are external events, which lead to conicts in
regions of migration and result in unfavourable conditions. In the model proposed
by Mitchell (2000), administration of justice, access to housing, and personal
economic security form the components of safety.
element of preparedness addresses response and recovery of the systems from the
disasters. Hence, combined, mitigation and adaptation oer an enhanced capacity to
deal with adverse conditions, absorb impacts and gain faster normalcy. This process
can be dened as resiliency of the system.
In the case of urban systems, gaining resiliency means reduced levels of socio-
economic loss with reduced investments in the recovery phase and faster
reconstruction and greater chances of growth. It also reduces the economic
imbalance by avoiding or reducing the inter-regional diversion of funds for
development. Availability of life line infrastructures, protected assets and environ-
ments combined with opportunities for growth lead to a better QoL. An improved
QoL can mobilize asset creation with enhanced economic and social capacity and in
turn inuence the adaptation and mitigation capabilities of the population. Hence,
while a disaster can have a negative impact on QoL, resiliency for disaster can
protect and maintain QoL.
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and the subject eld. The Urban Audit, a programme of the European Union with
EUROSTAT (European Statistics), applies the perception survey of the community
to dene QoL. Senlier, Yildiz and Aktas (2008) used the perception survey to dene
the QoL index for the city of Kocaeli in Turkey. Lot and Solaimani (2009) created a
framework using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for objective measurement
of urban QoL in comparison to northern cities of Iran.
The most commonly used expression for evaluating the index of QoL in various
studies can be dened as follows:
h wa
where h is the quality of life of an area, a is the vector describing amenities in that
area and w is the vector of weights. While applying the hedonic equilibrium
approach to QoL for ranking or urban areas, Giannias (1988) elaborated the
equation as:
where AC (l;t) is the accessibility in zone l at time t, AM (l;t) is the amenity in zone l
at time t, H (l;t) is the hazard in zone l at time t, wAC(h;t) is the accessibility weight of
individual h at time t, wAM(h;t) is the amenity weight of individual h at time t and
wH(h;t) is the hazard weight of individual h at time t.
10 S. Deshkar et al.
DisasterResiliencyIndex PreparednessIndex=Vulnerability or
DRi Pi=V 2
Where DRi 4 1, the community is more resilient; where DRi 5 1, the community is
less resilient.
The preparedness index is dened as:
P
wAC AC wAM AM wP P
QoLDR 3
V
where wAC is the weight of accessibility AC, wAM is the weight of amenity AM, wP is
the weight of measure of preparedness P and V is measure of vulnerability.
The components of QoLDR and their indicators are explained in Table 1. The
QoLDR expands on the signicance of accessibility and amenity, which are adopted
from the denition of QoL in disaster resiliency. The urban system and communitys
ability to bounce back primarily depends on the physical response and recovery
mechanisms for which transportation becomes a backbone. Access to safety and
services are the basic components for the response to adverse situations.
Amenities reveal the gaps in augmentation of basic services and the risks arising
from such a situation. The study considers water-related adversities water scarcity
and ooding for which the indicators of amenity reect the capacities of water
supply and drainage networks. The criticality of the communication networks at all
stages of disaster management is observed in various studies. In QoLDR, it acts as a
parameter of amenity. Observations can also be made linking parameters of amenity
with those of preparedness. It gives an appraisal of the capacity of the community to
compensate for the existing gap in service provisions and for sustenance during the
critical hours after the disaster. In the present study, the component of vulnerability
considers the natural vulnerabilities as well as those emerging from the urbanization
processes together. The social vulnerabilities such as crime, which are part of the
QoL estimation, are not considered here as a result of their complex nature. It is also
dicult to dene crime in the disaster management context as the occurrence and
nature of such social conditions are situational and dynamic.
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rise of the urban poor are often related. A comparative analysis of rural settlements and
urban slums can be conducted using the QoLDR index. The comparison can identify the
gaps between expected and actual QoL, as well as the resiliency of the migrated
population. This can help dene the policies to be adopted for poor inclusive urban
development and also broader guidelines for integrated regional development.
Densely populated urban core areas and dilapidated housing have been the
common features of many mega-cities in developing countries, and urban renewal
has been the main policy feature for urban development of such cities. However,
disaster resiliency has not been the focus of such policies. The QoLDR estimation
can provide guidelines for integrating the resiliency of the housing up-gradation
projects of mega-cities in developing countries.
Conclusion
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