Chapter 2

Transportation Systems Models

2.1
What are some of the basic characteristics of systems?

All of the components of a system have to be present and arranged in a specific

way for the system to operate as intended.
When one element is changed, there will be side effects.
Systems tend to have specific purposes within the larger system in which they are
embedded.
Systems have feedback, which allows for the transmission and return of
information.

2.2
List the different components of transportation systems.

Physical Elements
Human Resources
Operating Rules

2.3
What types of problems are best addressed using time-space diagrams? Which
problems are addressed using cumulative plots?

Time-Space diagrams are used in cases where many vehicles interact while
sharing a common travel way.
Cumulative plots deal with problems involving traffic flow through one or more
restrictions along a travel way.

2.4
A freight and passenger train shares the same track. The average speed of the
freight train is 45 mph, whereas that of the passenger train is 70 mph. The
passenger train is scheduled to leave 20 minutes after the freight train departs from
the same station. Determine the location where a siding would need to be provided
to allow the passenger train to pass the freight train. Also determine the time it
takes for the freight train to arrive at the siding.

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

(1)
X 1 X
Tf = Tp = + Since there is no specified safety distance for the
45 3 70
siding, the siding will occur where the trains would meet, so Tp - Tf = 0

1 X X
( + )- = 0.10 ; X = 29.4 miles.
3 70 45
(2)
X 29.4
Tf = = = 0.66 hrs = 39.6 minutes.
45 45

2.5
Three friends embark on a trip using a tandem bicycle that can carry two of them at
a time. To complete the trip, they proceed as follows: first, two friends (friends A &
B) ride the bicycle at an average speed of 16 mph for exactly 15 minutes. While this
is taking place, the third friend (friend C) walks at an average speed of 4 mph.
After 15 minutes, friend A drops friend B and then rides back to meet friend C at an
average speed of 18 mph. In the meantime, friend B continues the trip by walking
at an average speed of 4 mph. When friend A meets friend C, they ride together at
an average speed of 17 mph, until they meet friend B. The cycle just described is
then repeated until the trip is completed. Determine the average speed of the
friends.

X1 = 15 min = 0.25 h
Y1 = 4 mi/h (X1 + X2)
Y1 = 16 mi/h(X1) 18(X2)
4 (.25 + X 2) = 16 .25 18 X 2
3
X2 = h = 0.136 h
22
Y2 = 4 mi/h (X1 + X2) + 17 mi/h (X3)
Y2 = 16 mi/h (X1) + 4 mi/h (X2 + X3)
3 3
4 (.25 + ) + 17 X 3 = 16 .25 + 4 ( + X 3)
22 22

3
X3 = h = 0.231 h
13

Y2
Avg. Vel. = = 8.86 mi / h
X1 + X 2 + X 3

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 Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

2.6
A freight train and a passenger train share the same rail track. The freight train
leaves station A at 8:00 a.m. The train travels at a speed of 30 mph for the first 10
minutes, and then continues to travel at a speed of 40 mph. At 8:35 a.m., the
passenger train leaves station A. The passenger train travels first at a speed of 50
mph for 5 minutes, and then continues to travel at a speed of 70 mph. Determine
the location of the siding where the freight train will have to be parked to allow the
faster passenger train to pass through. As a safety precaution, it is determined that
the time headway between the two trains should not be allowed to fall below 5
minutes.

The time-space diagram for this problem is as shown below.

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

40 m ph 70 m ph
X

30 m ph 8:40 am
50 m ph

8:00 am 8:10 a m 8:35 am

Tf Tp
From this diagram,
Tf = 1/6 + (X 5)/40
Tp = 35/60 + 5/60 + (X 4.16667)/70

The required time headway is 5 min; therefore,

Tp Tf = 5/60 min = 0.083 h
1/6 + X/40 1/8 - 7/12 - 1/12 - X/70 + 4.166667/70 = 1/12

Therefore,
X = 45 mi

2.7
Travelers arriving at a certain airline counter at a given airport arrive according to
the pattern shown below. It is estimated that on average it takes 45 seconds to serve
a customer at the counter. For the first 30 minutes (i.e. from 9:00 to 9:30), the
airline has only two counters open. At 9:30, however, a third counter opens and
remains open until 10:30.

Time Period 15 min Count Cumulative Count

9:00 9:15 45 45
9:15 9:30 60 105
9:30 9:45 55 160
9:45 10:00 40 200
10:00 10:15 35 235
10:15 10:30 55 290

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 Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

(a) Draw a cumulative plot showing the arrival and departure patterns for
the travelers at the airline counters;
(b) What is the length of the queue at 9:30?
(c) What is the maximum length of the queue?
(d) What is the time at which no-one remains in line?
(e) What is the total wait time for all customers in units of
customer/minutes?

If it takes 45 seconds to serve a customer, one counter can accommodate a total of

15*60/45 = 20 customer/15 minutes. Given this, the calculations proceed as follows:
Time Arrival Departure Queue
9:00 0 0 0
9:15 45 40 5
9:30 105 80 25
9:45 160 140 20
10:00 200 200 0
10:15 235 235 0
10:30 290 290 0

(b) Length of queue at 9:30 p.m. is equal to 105 80 = 25 travelers

(c) Maximum length of the queue = 25 travelers

(d) The time at which no one remains in line is 10:00 a.m.

(e) Total wait is given by the area between the arrival and departure curves as follows:

*5*15 + (5+25)/2*15 + (25+20)/2*15 + *20*15 = 750 passenger-minutes

2.8
An incident occurs on a freeway that has a capacity in the northbound direction,
before the incident, of 4400 veh/hr and a constant flow rate of 3200 veh/hr during
the morning commute. At 7:30 a.m., a traffic accident occurs and totally closes the
freeway (i.e. reduces its capacity to zero). At 7:50 a.m., the freeway is partially
opened with a capacity of 2000 veh/hr. Finally, at 8:10 a.m., the wreckage is
removed and the freeway is restored to full capacity (i.e. 4400 veh/hr).
(a) Draw cumulative vehicles arrival and departure curves for the scenario
described;
(b) Determine the total magnitude of delay, in units of veh-h, from the
moment the accident occurs to the moment the queue formed totally dissipates.

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

(a)

h
vp

h
0 0

vp
36 Y
00
44

0 vp h
2 00
7:30 a m 7:50 a m 8:10 a m
X
(b)
2
Y = 3200 ( + X )
3
1
Y = 2000 + 4400 X
3
2 1
Y = 3200 ( + X ) = 2000 + 4400 X
3 3

X = 1.222 hours
Y = 6044.44 vehicles.

The total magnitude of delay, in units of veh-h is the area under the curve.

*(2/3+1.222)*6044.44 *1/3*666.67 *1.222*(6044.44-666.67) 1.222*666.667 = 1496.3 veh-h

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 Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

2.9
A six-lane freeway (i.e. 3 lanes in each direction) has a capacity of 6000 veh/hr under
normal conditions. On a certain day, an accident occurs at 4:00 p.m. The accident
initially results in blocking two of the three lanes of the freeway, and hence reduces
the capacity to only 2000 veh/hr for that direction. At 4:30 p.m., the freeway
capacity is partially restored back to a value of 4000 veh/hr. Finally, at 5:00 p.m.,
the accident is totally cleared, and the full capacity of the freeway is restored. Given
that the traffic demand at the accident site is given by the following table,
determine:

Time Period 15-min Volume

4:00 4:15 700
4:15 4:30 900
4:30 4:45 1100
4:45 5:00 1200
5:00 5:15 800
5:15 5:30 700
5:30 5:45 1100
5:45 6:00 900

(a) The maximum length of the queue formed at the accident site;
(b) The time the queue dissipates; and
(c) The total delay.

(a)
The calculations can be tabulated as follows:

Time Arrival Departure Queue

4:00 0 0 0
4:15 700 500 200
4:30 1600 1000 600
4:45 2700 2000 700
5:00 3900 3000 900
5:15 4700 4500 200
5:30 5400
5:45 6500
6:00 7400

The maximum length of the queue is therefore 900 vehicles.

(b)

The cumulative plot for this problem is shown below.

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

4:45

As can be seen from the above cumulative plot, the time at which the queue
dissipates occurs between 5:15 and 5:30. Between 5:15 and 5:30, the arrival rate is 2800
veh/h, and the departure rate is 6000 veh/h (see Figure below). Therefore, to calculate
the time, T, into the 15-min interval during which the queue dissipates, we have:

200 + 2800 * T = 6000 * T

200 = 3200 * T

T = 1/16 hours or 3.75 minutes

Therefore, the queue dissipates at time 5:18.75 p.m.

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 Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

h
vp
0
2 80

h
200 veh vp
00
60

(c)
The total delay is given by the area between the arrival and departure curves as follows:

* 15 * 200 + (200+600)/2*15 + (600+700)/2*15 + (700+900)/2*15 +

*(900+200)*15 + *3.75*200 = 37875 veh-min or 631.25 veh-h

2.10
To evaluate the condition of bike paths, a condition index was developed which rates
the surface condition of each bike path segment on a scale from 0 to 100, with 100
referring to a segment in perfect condition. The table below shows the inspection
data for several bike path segments in terms of the Condition Index (CI) for each
segment, along with its age (i.e. the number of years since its construction):

Condition Age
Index (CI) (years)
100 0
98 0.5
96 1.2
93 3
100 0
93 2
88 4
86 7
100 0
95 2
90 4
83 8
100 0
92 3
85 6
82 9
81 10

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

It is postulated that the deterioration of bike path surfaces can be expressed

using the following equation:
CI = a + b*(AGE) + c*(AGE)2
Using regression, develop a deterioration prediction curve for bike paths.
Plot the resulting curve to show the typical deterioration trend for bike paths.

Linear regression can be performed using Microsoft Excel. The returned output as
follows:

CI Age Age2 SUMMARY OUTPUT

100 0 0
98 0.5 0.25 Regression Statistics
96 1.2 1.44 Multiple R 0.992971349
93 3 9 R Square 0.9859921
Adjusted R
100 0 0 Square 0.983990971
93 2 4 Standard Error 0.852158585
88 4 16 Observations 17
86 7 49
100 0 0
95 2 4
90 4 16
83 8 64
100 0 0
92 3 9 Coefficients
85 6 36 Intercept 99.84326958
82 9 81 Age -3.03900983
81 10 100 Age^2 0.118281978

Therefore, the model can be expressed as:

CI = 99.84 3.039*AGE + 0.118*AGE2

This model can be graphed as shown below.

Condition Index vs. Age

100
Condition Index

90

80

70

60
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Age (years)

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 Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

2.11
Develop a relationship between the total number of trips generated by a wholesale
tire store and the gross floor area of the store. The data set below the average
number of vehicle trips/day to and from several tire stores. How well does your
model fit the data? How many trips per day are generated by a store with a gross
floor area of 1000 sq. ft?

Store ID Trip Ends/Day Gross Floor Area

1 170 9
2 300 14.5
3 250 12
4 350 17
5 340 18
6 200 11
7 230 14
8 250 16
9 100 6
10 400 19
11 150 8
12 380 17.5
13 220 11.5
14 270 12.5
15 280 14

A linear regression analysis of the data can be performed with the resulting relationship:.

Y = 21.2197 X 23.596

The model fit the given data reasonably well as R 2 = 0.905 , which is close to 1.

For a store with a gross floor area of 1000 sq. ft.,

If X = 10
Y = 212.197 23.56 = 189 trip ends/day

2.12
It is postulated that the relationship between the average speed of a traffic stream,
u, in mph, and the density (which gives the number of vehicles/unit length), k, in
veh/mile for a given transportation facility can be expressed as follows:
kj
u = c ln
k
where c and kj are parameters. To fit the above equation, average speeds and
density were collected from the facility at different times of the day and different

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

usage levels. The data collected are as shown below. Use regression to fit the above
equation to the data. What are the values for the two parameters c and kj?

Speed, u Density, k
(mph) (veh/mile)
53 22
40 44
37 52
10 125
25 70
20 85
48 27
45 36
27 65
15 90
13 97
35 58
34 60
37 51

kj
The given equation, u = c ln , can be made linear, u = c ln k j c ln k
k

u ln k
53 3.091042
40 3.78419
37 3.951244
10 4.828314
25 4.248495
20 4.442651
48 3.295837
45 3.583519
27 4.174387
15 4.49981
13 4.574711
35 4.060443
34 4.094345
37 3.931826

where c ln k is the y-intercept and c ln k j is the slope and independent variable

c ln k j = 139.6387 c = 26.802

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Therefore,
26.802 * ln kj = 139.6387
ln kj = 5.21
kj = 183 veh/mi

2.13
In the context of probability theory, explain what is meant by a random variable.

A random variable is a special type of a probability model that assigns a numerical

value to each outcome.

2.14
Provide examples of random variables that arise within the context of
transportation systems problems, and that follow each of the following probability
distributions: (1) binomial distribution; (2) geometric distribution; (3) Poisson
distribution; and (4) normal distribution.

Binomial Distribution: A random variable in a binomial distribution has a value of

one with probability p and value of 0 with probability 1-p. An example would be
the probability of a certain number of aircrafts of a certain type landing at an
airport during a given time period.
Geometric Distribution: The random variable in a geometric distribution
represents the probability that the first success will occur on the xth trial. An
example would be the probability that the fifth vehicle at an intersection would
turn left.
Poisson Distribution: The random variable in a Poisson distribution represents the
probability that exactly x units will arrive during time interval t. The Poisson
distribution best describes the arrival pattern of vehicles at an intersection or
travelers at an airport counter.
Normal Distribution: The random variable is dependent upon a certain mean and
1 1 x 2
standard deviation. f ( x) = exp . The distribution of
2 2
driving speeds along a road can be described using a Normal distribution.

2.15
Differentiate between the probability distribution function (pdf) and the cumulative
distribution function (cdf).

The probability density function associates each value of a discrete random variable to its
probability.
0 p(x) 1 p(x) = 1

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

The cumulative distribution function adds probability values for the random variable that
are less than or equal to x. Increases at each of the values that the random variable
assumes.
F(x) = P[ X x]

2.16
In the context of probability density functions, what does the p-fractile function
compute? Illustrate using a simple diagram.

In a normal distribution the p-fractile is the number g such that the probability that X is
less than g is equal to p.

p 1-p

g
2.17
The following table lists the observed speeds of a number of trains as they pass a
certain point midway between two stations. You are asked to determine: (1) the
average speed; (2) the variance; and (3) the standard deviation.

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 Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

Train ID Speed (mph)

1 71
2 69
3 73
4 55
5 62
6 53
7 67
8 45
9 54
10 63
11 67
12 41
13 75
14 48
15 43
16 55
17 58
18 59
19 63
20 67

The mean, variance, and standard deviation can be readily calculated a spreadsheet or
statistical analysis software package. The mean is 59.4 mi/h; the variance 95.8 (mi/h)2,
and the standard deviation 9.79 mi/h.

2.18
Pedestrians arrive at a signalized intersection crossing at the rate of 600
pedestrians/hr. The duration of the red interval for the pedestrians at that
intersection is 45 seconds. Assuming that pedestrians arrival pattern can be
described using a Poisson distribution, what is the probability that there will be
more than 10 pedestrians waiting to cross at the end of the pedestrian red interval?

= 600/3600 = 0.167 pedestrian/second (average arrival rate)

t = (0.167 ped/sec) * 45 sec = 7.5 pedestrians (expected number of arrivals)

P (X > 10) = 1 P(X <= 10)

= 1 POISSON (10, 7.5) = 0.138

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

2.19
Airplanes arrive at an airport at an average rate of 10 aircraft/hr. Assuming that
the arrival rate follows a Poisson distribution, calculate the probability that more
than 4 aircraft would land during a given 15 minutes.

The probability that more than 4 aircraft would land during this time is the same as 1
the probability that 4 or less will show.
1aircraft
=
6 min

t = 15min

P (X > 4) = 1 P(X 4)
1 POISSON (4, 2.5) = 0.1088

2.20
An approach to an intersection carries an average volume of 1000 veh/hr with 15%
of the vehicles desiring to turn left. The cycle length at the intersection is equal to 75
seconds. The city would like to construct a left-turn bay at the intersection in order
to minimize the probability of the left-turn vehicles blocking the through lane. You
are asked to determine the minimum length of the left-turn bay at that approach so
that the probability of an arriving left-turning vehicle not finding enough room on
the left-turn bay is less than 10%. Assume the average vehicle length is equal to 20
ft. Assume Poisson arrivals.

= 0.15*(1000 veh/h)/(3600 sec/h) = 0.04167 veh/sec

t = (0.04167 veh/sec)* 75 sec = 3.125 veh

What we are seeking here is the minimum number of vehicles, N, that the turning bay
should accommodate so that the probability of X > N is less than 10%.

We know that P(X > N) is equal to 1.0 P(X N). Therefore, P(X > N) less than 10% is
equivalent to P(X N) greater than 0.90. The calculations can be performed using Excel
as follows:

N P(X N)
1 0.18124
2 0.395776
3 0.61925
4 0.79384
5 0.902959
6 0.959791

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 Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

As can be seen, the smallest number of vehicles with a probability of occurrence of less
than 0.10 is 5 vehicles. Therefore, the left turn bay should be equal to 100 ft (20 ft for
each of 5 vehicles).

2.21
A trucking company has enough capacity to transport 2000 tons of a certain
material per week. If the weekly demand for transporting such material is normally
distributed with a mean of 1750 tons, and a standard deviation of 300 tons,
determine:
(a) The probability that within a given week, the company would have to
turn down requests for transporting the material;
(b) The capacity that the company should maintain so that the probability of
it turning down transportation requests is less than 5%.

(a) Any spreadsheet or statistical analysis software package can be used. Using
Excel,

P (X > 2000) = 1.0 P(X 2000) = 1.0 NORMDIST(2000, 1750, 300, 1)

= 1.0 - 0.797671619
= 0.2023

(b) Using Excel

If probability of P(X g) = 0.05 then P(X g) = 0.95
g = NORMINV(0.95,1750,300)
g = 2243.456088 2300 ton

2.22
A company operates small ferryboats between a small island and the mainland.
Each ferryboat can carry a maximum of 6 vehicles. It is estimated that vehicles
arrive at the ferryboat dock at the rate of 12 veh/hr. The company is interested in
determining the frequency at which the ferryboats should be operated so that the
probability of a vehicle being left at the dock because the boat does not have enough
capacity does not exceed 10%. Assume that vehicles arrive according to a Poisson
distribution.

For this problem, = 12 veh/h = 12/60 or 0.2 vehicles/min

What we are seeking is the frequency or the time headway between the ferry arrivals that
would ensure that the probability of having more than 6 vehicles arriving in that period is
less than 10%.

Therefore,
P (X > 6) 0.10

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

We proceed by assuming different time headways (i.e. 5 min, 10 min, etc.), and each
time calculating P(X > 6) which is equal to 1.0 P (X 6) as shown below.
T t P(X 6) P(X > 6)
5 1 0.999917 8.32411E-05
10 2 0.995466 0.004533806
15 3 0.966491 0.033508535
20 4 0.889326 0.110673978
25 5 0.762183 0.237816537

From the table, it can be seen that having a ferry every almost 20 minutes (to be more
precise, every 19 minutes) would ensure that the probability of having more than 6
vehicles waiting for a ferry is less than 10%.

2.23
An airport serves four different types of aircraft: Heavy (H); Large (L); Medium
(M) and Small (S). During a typical hour, 40 Heavy aircraft, 50 Large, 60 Medium,
and 70 Small aircraft land. Determine the probability that:
(a) The next aircraft to land is a Small aircraft;
(b) In a stream of 20 aircraft, at least 5 Small aircraft would land;
(c) The first Medium aircraft would be the fifth aircraft.

(a)
70
= 0.318
40 + 50 + 60 + 70

(b) This requires use of the binomial distribution.

P(X 5) = 1.0 P(X 4)
P(X 4) = BINOMDIST (4 ,20 ,0.318 ,1) = 0.187767
P(X 5) = 1.0 P(X 4) = 1 0.187767 = 0.812233
P(X 5) = 0.812

(c) This requires use of the geometric distribution.

60
= 0.273
40 + 50 + 60 + 70

P (X = 5) = (1 p)x 1 p
= (1 0.273)4 * 0.273 = 0.076
= 0.076

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2.24
In the context of queuing theory, what is the difference between the time a customer
spends in the queue, and the time she spends in the system?

A customer is in the queue when entering the waiting line and until service is
provided.
A customer is in the system when entering the waiting line and until service is
completed.

2.25
What are examples of queuing systems in transportation systems.

Vehicles waiting at a tollbooth

Airplanes waiting to land or take off at a runway
Vehicles waiting to pass through a work zone
Trucks or ships waiting to be unloaded at a marine terminal
People waiting to renew their drivers licenses.

2.26
On what basis are different types of queues distinguished?

Customer arrival patterns

Customer departure
Service patterns and queue disciplines.

2.27
Why do queues form?

Queues form when the arrival rate is greater than the departure rate or as a result of the
stochastic fluctuations in arrival patterns.

2.28
At a given airport, aircraft arrive at an average rate of 8 aircraft/hr following a
Poisson distribution. The average landing time for an aircraft is 5 minutes.
However, this time varies from one aircraft to another. This variation can be
assumed to be exponentially distributed. Determine:
(a) The average number of aircraft awaiting clearance to land;
(b) The average time an aircraft spends in the system;
(c) The probability that there will be more than 5 aircraft awaiting clearance
to land.

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

This is an M/M/1 problem

= 8 aircrafts/hour
= 12 aircrafts/hour
= 8/12 = 0.66667

The average number of aircrafts awaiting clearance:

(a) The average length of the queue:

2 0.66667 2
Q= = = 1.333 aircraft
(1 ) (1 0.66667) )

(b) The average time an aircraft spends in the system:

1 1
t = = = 0.25 hr/aircraft or 15 minutes/aircraft
( ) (12 8) )

(c) The steady-state probability that exactly 5 aircraft are in the system:

p n = (1 ) n = (1 0.66667) * 0.666675 = 0.044

2.29
Travelers arrive at the ticket counter of a particular airport at the rate of 90
customers/hr following a Poisson distribution. The average service time per
customer is more or less fixed and is equal to 30 seconds. Determine the average
queue length, the average waiting time in the queue and the average time spent in
the system.
customers 1hour customers
= 90 = 1.5
hour 60 min min
sec customers customers
= 60 1 =2
1 min 30 sec min

p= if <1 = .75 < 1

This is an M/D/1 Queue. Therefore
2 .75 2
Q= = = 1.125travelers
2(1 ) (1 .75)

.75 min
W = = = .75
2 (1 ) 2(2)(1 .75) traveler

2 2 .75 min
t = = = 1.25
2 (1 ) 2(2)(1 .75) traveler

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 Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

2.30
Travelers arrive at a ticket counter of an Amtrak train station at the rate of 100
travelers/hr. It has been estimated that it takes an average of 30 seconds to serve
each customer at the counter. Assuming that arrivals can be described using a
Poisson distribution, determine the average wait time in the queue, and the average
number of customers waiting in the queue.

Based upon the information given, it is reasonable to assume that this is an M/D/1 Queue.

= 100/60 = 1.6667 travelers/min

= 60/30 = 2 travelers/min
= 1.66667/2 = 0.83333

Therefore, the average wait time:

.83333 min
W = = = 1.25
2 (1 ) 2(2)(1 .0.8333) traveler

The average number of customers in the queue:

2 .83333 2
Q= = = 2.08 travelers
2(1 ) 2 * (1 .83333)

2.31
Travelers at an airport arrive at a given security check point at the rate of 120
travelers/hr. Check-in times for passengers vary according to a negative
exponential distribution with an average value of 25 seconds per passenger.
Determine:
(a) The average number of passengers waiting in line in front of the security
check point;
(b) The average waiting time for passengers;
(c) The average time a passenger spends in the system.

This is an M/D/1 Queue.

(a)
customers 1hour customers
= 120 =2
hour 60 min min
sec customers customers
= 60 1 = 2.4
1 min 25 sec min

p= if <1 = .8333 < 1

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

2 .8333 2
Q= = = 4.1655travelers
(1 ) (1 .8333)
(b)
2 min
W = = = 2.08333
( ) 2.4(2.4 2) travelers
(c)
1 1
t = = = 2.5 min
( ) (2.4 2)

2.32
In the previous problem, it is desired to limit the probability that there would be
more than 7 passengers in line to a value less than 5%. Determine the maximum
rate of arrival that should be allowed.

The probability that we have n passengers in the system is given by:

p n = (1 ) n

Also, the probability that we have more than 7 passengers is equal to:
1.0 P(0) P(1) P(2) P(3) P(4) P(5) P(6) P(7)

The value of that would ensure that the above expression is less than 0.05 is the correct
answer. This can be found by trial and error using Microsoft Excel as shown below.

N po
0 0.25 0.75
1 0.1875
2 0.140625
3 0.105469
4 0.079102
5 0.059326
6 0.044495
7 0.033371

P(N 7) 0.899887
P(N > 7) 0.100113

As can be seen, the requested value of is 0.75

Therefore, the arrival rate is equal to 0.75 * 2.4 = 1.8 travelers/min or 108
travelers/h.

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 Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

2.33
Cite four examples of optimization problems arising within the field of
Transportation Infrastructure Engineering.

In the planning process the transportation planner is typically seeking the

optimal allocation or use of the available funds.
During the design stage, the transportation engineer identifies the optimal
alignment for a proposed transportation travelway, which would minimize
the cost of construction and earthwork.
In traffic signal design, the traffic engineer is typically trying to come up
with an optimal signal plan that would minimize the total travel time or
travel delay.
In transportation infrastructure maintenance and management,
optimization techniques are commonly used to determine optimal
treatment strategies and the optimal timing for implementing that strategy.

2.34
What are the three basic steps in formulating optimization models?

Identification of the decision variables

Formulation of the objective function
Formulation of the models constraints.

2.35
A transit authority must repair 120 subway cars/month. At the same time, the
authority must refurbish 60 subway cars. Each task can be done in the authoritys
facility or can be contracted out. Private contracting increases the cost by $1000/car
repaired, and by $1500/car refurbished. Car repair and refurbishing take place in
three shops, namely the Assembly shop, the Machine shop and the Paint shop.
Repairing a single car consumes 2% of the Assembly shop capacity, and 2.5% of the
Machine shop capacity. On the other hand, refurbishing a single car takes up 1.5%
of the Assembly shop capacity, and 3% of the Paint shop. Formulate the problem of
minimizing the monthly expense for private contracting as a linear program, and
solve it using Microsoft Excels Solver.

Decision Variables:
X1 = number of cars repaired in house
X2 = number of cars repaired by contracting
X3 = number of cars refurbished in house
X4 = number of cars refurbished by contracting
Objective Function:
Minimize Z = 1000 X2 + 1500 X4

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Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

Constraints:
Assembly Shop: 2X1 + 1.5X3 <= 100
Machine Shop: 2.5X1 <= 100
Paint Shop: 3X3 <= 100
Number of cars repaired X1 + X2 = 120
Number of cars refurbished X3+ X4 = 60
The problem can be solved using Excel Solver as follows:

X1 X2 X3 X4
Assembly
Shop 2 1.5 100 <= 100
Machine Shop 2.5 62.5 <= 100
Paint Shop 3 100 <= 100
Number
repaired 1 1 120 = 120
Number refurbished 1 1 60 = 60
Contribution 1000 1500 135000
Value 25 95 33.33333 26.66667

Therefore, the transit authority should repair 25 cars and refurbish 33 in house. The rest
will have to be contracted out (i.e. 95 repairs and 27 refurbishes).

2.36
You have been asked to prepare the best plan to transport finished products from
three production plants to four market places. The production capacities for the
three plants are 2000, 3500, and 4000 units, respectively. At the same time, the
demand that has to be met at each market place is for 3200 units at market 1, 2800
units at market 2, 2000 at market 3, and 1500 at market 4. The unit shipping costs
are given in the table below.

Market 1 Market 2 Market 3 Market 4

Plant 1 4.5 6.5 4 7
Plant 2 11 4 12 3
Plant 3 5 7 8 4

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 Chapter 2: Transportation Systems Models

This is a typical transportation problem. The solution can be easily formulated and
derived using Microsoft Excel Solver as follows:

Market 1 Market 2 Market 3 Market 4 Supply

Plant 1 4.5 6.5 4 7 2000
Plant 2 11 4 12 3 3500
Plant 3 5 7 8 4 4000
Demand 3200 2800 2000 1500

Market 1 Market 2 Market 3 Market 4

Plant 1 0 0 2000 0 2000
Plant 2 0 2800 0 700 3500
Plant 3 3200 0 0 800 4000
3200 2800 2000 1500

Transportation Cost 40500

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