IRENA Electric Vehicles 2017

ELECTRIC VEHICLES
TECHNOLOGY BRIEF
February 2017
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Citation: IRENA (2017), Electric Vehicles: technology brief, International
Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This brief benefited greatly from reviews by Dolf Gielen and Nicholas Wagner (IRENA),
Holger Hesse and Peter Keil (Technical University of Munich-ESS) and Bert Witkamp
(AVERE),
Contributing authors: Lewis M. Fulton (UC Davis), Amr Seleem, Francisco Boshell,
Alessandra Salgado and Deger Saygin (IRENA)
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Contents
Insights for Policy Makers........................................................................................................... 2
Highlights............................................................................................................................................5
Technology Status and Performance.....................................................................................8
Light duty electric vehicle sales......................................................................................12
Sales of other types of electric vehicles.......................................................................15
Costs, markets and consumers........................................................................................17
Electric Vehicle Charging and Interactions with Electricity Grids........................ 20
Electric vehicles and renewable energy deployment.............................................21
The role of demand-side management...................................................................... 26
Smart charging......................................................................................................................27
Considering the Future: Electric Vehicle Market Projections.................................. 29
Projections of batteries and electricity demand......................................................32
EVs and VRE: Combining for low environmental impact.................................... 34
Material requirements........................................................................................................ 38
Achieving future EV targets: Technology and policy aspects........................... 39
Bibliography...................................................................................................................................44
Insights for Policy Makers
There are two main types of electric Despite on-going battery
vehicles (EV): battery electric performance improvements and
vehicles (BEV) that use only cost reductions, EVs still face
batteries for energy storage and potentially important obstacles.
must be plugged in to be recharged, New models to be introduced
and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in 2017 and 2018 will be able to
(PHEV) that have both batteries and drive up to 300 kilometres (km)
liquid-fuel storage and refuelling per recharge, but battery packs up
systems. to 60 kilowatt-hour (kWh), even if
The global stock of electric vehicles battery costs drop from their current
levels of around USD350/kWh to
(EVs) reached 1 million during 2015
USD150 kWh in the future, would
and passed the 2 million mark in
cost USD9000, much more than
2016. This rapid rise has been led
the drive systems of todays internal
by China, the US, Japan and several
combustion engine vehicles. Fuel
European countries.
savings will help pay this back,
The uptake of EVs is the result of especially for high-mileage drivers.
several factors, including strong
Battery-electric vehicles provide
technological progress, cost
zero-vehicle-emissions driving
reductions (especially batteries),
(for both carbon dioxide (CO2)
and policy support, including
and pollutant emissions), but
purchase incentives, driving
the upstream CO2 can be
and parking access advantages,
substantial, for example in
and increased public charging
countries with dominant coal power
infrastructure availability.
generation. Electric grids must be
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) considerably decarbonised (to
dominated sales over plug-in hybrid 600grams(g)/kWh or less) for EVs
electric vehicles in most countries to have a CO2 advantage relative
until 2014, but plug-in hybrid to similar sized hybrid internal
electric vehicle (PHEV) sales have combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
grown rapidly in the past two years Carbon intensities will need to
and as of early 2016 were nearly continuously improve in the future,
equal to BEV sales worldwide. since hybrids and other ICE vehicles
PHEVs have a considerable range will also become more efficient. EVs
advantage but sacrifice all-electric also produce no direct air pollution
driving to achieve this. and reduce noise pollution in cities.
2 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
For the most benefit, EV deployment such as time-variable smart
requires four concurrent strategies: charging and vehicle to grid (V2G)
(i) electrification of vehicles; electricity supply. Such systems can
(ii) provision of sufficient charging help support a global doubling of
equipment; (iii) decarbonisation the share of renewable energy by
of the electricity generation; and 2030 compared to 2015.
(iv) integration of electric vehicles
The eventual deployment of
into the grid.
charging schemes such as smart
EV deployment growth would allow charging and V2G can support
a higher share of variable renewable the growth of variable renewable
energy (VRE) in the power system, energy and can interplay with
via five areas of interaction: information communication
(i) actively using the mobile battery technology (ICT) systems to
storage system in the vehicle; maximise the technical features
(ii) use of second-hand batteries
and minimise the operation costs
in a second life role as stationary
using demand-side management
battery storage systems; (iii) wide-
tools.
spread deployment of charging
technologies and infrastructure; REmap a global roadmap from
(iv) evolution in the charging the International Renewable
behaviour of EV owners, for Energy Agency (IRENA) to double
example, in which they become renewables in the energy mix
comfortable with variable charging estimates that a 160 million EVs
rates and times; and (v) provision by 2030 would provide sufficient
of other ancillary services from battery capacity in major markets
EVs to the grid, such as frequency to support VRE at a large scale.
regulation, shaving peak demand, Achieving this stock level, however,
power support to enhance will be challenging and will require
operation, and reserve capacity to annual sales growth rates on the
secure the grid by stored energy in order of 30-40% between now and
its batteries. then. To achieve this will probably
Electric vehicles create a paradigm require that EV markets achieve
shift for both the transport and a tipping point between 2020 and
power sectors, and could support 2025, when they start to rapidly
variable renewable power growth increase market share relative to
through different charging schemes ICE vehicles.
Ele c tr i c Vehicles | Technology B rief 3

To achieve a tipping point in sales, Assuming all these new electric
EVs will likely need to achieve near- vehicles were to consume 100%
parity on a first cost basis with renewable electricity, around
ICE vehicles, and provide sufficient 450terawatt-hours (TWh) per year
amenities (such as driving range of additional renewable electricity
and recharging convenience), such would be required by 2030. This is
that consumers do not consider equivalent to 1.5% of todays total
them inferior to or comparable to global electricity generation.
ICEs. EVs are already perceived Benefits of EVs include zero tailpipe
to provide an excellent driving emissions and therefore less local
experience, and new models being air pollution and, depending on
introduced during 2017 and 2018 the power generation, lower CO2
will have much greater driving
emissions. EVs can also reduce noise
range than most of todays models.
pollution in cities. Governments
But strong policies to a) reduce the
should also consider promoting
first cost of EVs, b) provide driving/
electric two-wheelers and electric
parking advantages, and c) ensure
buses as a way of reducing pollution
sufficient recharging infrastructure,
and noise in populated regions
will likely all be needed for at least
where point-to-point charging is
five to ten more years to have
possible.
a chance for rapid sales growth
and achieving target stock levels
by 2030.
Highlights
Technology status and performance
Two main types of electric vehicle with 40 kWh of battery capacity may
(EV) have both achieved significant have a battery cost of USD14000,
sales in the worlds major vehicle leading to a vehicle incremental cost
markets in the past year. These are: of at least USD12000 compared to
similar ICE vehicles, depending on
(1) battery electric vehicles (BEVs),
retail mark-ups, incentives and other
which use only batteries for energy
factors.
storage and must be plugged in to be
recharged, and Fortunately, strong policies and on-
going cost reductions of batteries
(2) plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
have helped enable the growth of
(PHEVs), which have both batteries EVs. EV sales have grown rapidly
and liquid-fuel storage/refuelling over the past five years, reaching
systems. nearly 500000 worldwide in 2015,
In both cases, the electric motor and nearly 800000 in 2016, with
is very efficient, using 90-95% nearly half of 2016 sales in China.
of the input energy to power the EV sales and market share are quite
movement of the vehicle, and offer variable across different countries
zero vehicle emissions driving. But and markets. In 2015, the EV market
the use of batteries poses the two share was over 20% in Norway,
main challenges for battery electric nearly 10% in the Netherlands, and
vehicles: their cost and driving range. 3% in California, while under 2% in
Most current models of BEV do not all other major markets. Electric
store enough energy to provide trucks and buses are also emerging,
normal driving range, and are with over 150000 electric buses in
limited to below 250 km (160 miles) service around the world, mostly in
per recharge. However, some new and China. Electric two-wheelers are the
forthcoming models offer substantially runaway leaders with over 200million
more range, up to 400 km. PHEVs sold through 2015, the vast majority
already offer 500 km or more due in China. As battery costs continue to
to the availability of their liquid- drop, and higher range EVs become
fuelled internal combustion engine. available at a reasonable cost, sales
are expected to continue to rise
Both technologies are expensive,
rapidly at least through 2020.
with battery costs estimated around
USD350/kWh in 2015 and the cost of All modern EVs rely on some type of
a hybrid system of several thousand lithium-ion based battery. Lithium-ion
dollars in PHEVs. For BEVs, a vehicle batteries offer relatively high energy

density, high specific energy and A common target is USD150/kWh
good cycle life. Much progress has for full battery packs, a point at
been made in the last few years, which the overall costs of an EV may
making lithium-ion batteries more become competitive with gasoline or
compact, lighter, more durable (to diesel vehicles (although purchase
last the life of the vehicle) as well costs may remain higher for higher
as charge fully in a few minutes. battery-range EVs).
Electric vehicles and renewable energy deployment:

Towards a new paradigm
Electric vehicles need to be recharged EVs can be used to enable a higher
on a regular basis, and this can occur share of variable renewable energy in
either at home or at work. It can also the power system by: (i) actively using
be done while shopping or during the mobile battery storage system
other types of stops when travelling. in the vehicle in V2G applications,
A general issue for EVs has been the (ii)use of second-hand batteries in a
long duration needed for charging second life role as stationary battery
typically up to eight hours for a storage systems, (iii) widespread
full charge when using slow chargers. deployment of charging technologies
Faster charging is desirable though and infrastructure, (iv) evolution in
not needed in most situations. Home consumer behaviour of EV owners,
and (v) provision of other ancillary
slow-charging mostly, but not always,
services from EVs to the grid. This
happens at night. This is relevant since
occurs by making use of EV batteries to
EVs interact with the grid via charging
store excess electricity and to provide
and discharging. There are different
ancillary services to the grid, such as
modes of interaction with the grid,
frequency regulation, shaving peak
the first mode is grid-to-vehicle (G2V) demand, power support to enhance
where the vehicle is charged from the the operation, and reserve capacity
grid, while V2G refers to when vehicles to secure the grid. One of the main
discharge power to the grid. The V2G advantages of EVs are their high level
mode could also be considered as a of flexibility in charging times which
bidirectional charging where EV can can efficiently support operation of
charge from and discharge to the grid the grid. According to IRENAs REmap
at regular intervals. Other charging analysis, if a target of 160million
modes such as vehicle-to-building EVs worldwide can be reached by
(V2B) and controlled charging are 2030, this will provide around
also available. 8000gigawatthours(GWh)/year
in battery storage that could help The evolution of the combination
to accommodate higher shares of of EVs with smart grids is very
variable renewable energy. This is important as this allows customers
equivalent to approximately 1200GW to control and make well informed
of battery storage capacity. Along decisions on their consumption
with the pumped hydro storage and of electricity, as well as minimise
second-hand batteries estimated their bills. This kind of consumption
under REmap by 2030, this adds up control is called demand-side
to a total of 1650GW. This compares management (DSM). DSM can
with approximately 3 700 GW of help customers in optimising their
variable renewable power capacity. consumptions through an intelligent
The stored battery capacity can system, and can greatly support
provide additional support to customers in shifting their loads
renewable power integration to the during peak periods.
grid among other flexibility measures.
Considering the future: Electric vehicle market projections

To achieve the conditions needed for VRE capacity, we estimate that most
EVs to provide significant benefits to or all of this new demand could be
electric power systems and variable served by renewable power. However,
renewable electricity by 2030, IRENA the scenario will be challenging to
estimates that 160 million will be achieve: annual EV sales would need
needed worldwide in that year. In to reach 40 million to 50 million by
this brief we articulate this vision by 2030, out of an expected overall
region, showing one plausible scenario market of 120million to 130million
for how the sales and use of EVs vehicles, in order for stocks to reach
and PHEVs could increase in various 160 million.
markets to achieve such a target. With
Achieving a 25% or greater market
an average of 50kWh battery pack
share will not be easy and will require
per vehicle, 160million vehicles could
rapid sales increases in all major car
provide about 8000GWh of battery
markets in the next decade, with a
storage by 2030.
tipping point in sales probably in
Assuming average driving levels per the 2020-2025 time frame. Strong
vehicle, the combined electricity policies will be necessary to reach
demand from these vehicles could such a point, where EVs are cost
reach close to 500TWh per year by competitive and otherwise attractive
2030. Since this battery capacity to a wide range of consumers in
could assist in the development of many countries.

Technology status and performance
The term electric vehicle (EV) achieving 750 or more kilometres of
typically means a vehicle with an range overall. Current BEVs typically
electric drive (motor) propulsion have less than 250km (160 miles)
system that can be plugged in to of all-electric range today. However,
recharge the batteries that provide some models, such as the Tesla
at least some of the energy storage ModelS 1 and BYD E6, 2 have more
on the vehicle. There are two main than a 300 km range. Chevrolet will
types of EV: battery electric vehicles introduce the Bolt in late 2016 with
(BEV) that use only batteries for a claimed range almost 400km and
energy storage and must be plugged priced around USD37000. Other
in to be recharged, and plug-in higher-range models have been
hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) that announced for 2017. 3
have both batteries and liquid-fuel
Figure 1 shows, for the models of
storage systems and that can either
BEV and PHEV sold in different
be plugged in or refuelled with liquid
countries during 2015, how much
fuel to increase energy stored on the
battery capacity these vehicles have
vehicle. Regular (non-plug-in) hybrids
and the rated driving range on these
also have an electric drive system, but
batteries (a function of the battery
no plug. They rely on liquid fuel to
storage but also the efficiency of the
recharge the batteries on board the
vehicle in converting that energy into
vehicle, along with features such as
driving distance). The PHEVs typically
regenerative braking.
have far lower battery capacity and
PHEVs typically are provided with electric driving range, though they
a much smaller battery pack than also provide considerable range on
BEVs, since they also have an internal liquid fuels. The BEVs typically offer
combustion engine operating on more than 100km of driving range
liquid fuel. The vehicles may have a and several offer more than 200km.
shorter driving range on batteries but As mentioned, in 2015 a few models
usually have a longer overall driving offered more than 250km, notably
range due to the liquid fuel typically the BYD E6 and, at over 400km, the
similar to conventional vehicles, Tesla Model S.
1 < www.tesla.com/models>
2 < www.byd.com/la/auto/e6.html>
3 < www.chevrolet.com/bolt-ev-electric-vehicle.html>
Figure 1: Comparison of battery storage/driving
range for1: BEVs
Figure and PHEVs
Comparison of battery capacity/driving range for BEVs and PHEVs
500
Battery Driving Range (km)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Battery storage (kWh)
PHEV BEV
Source: UC Davis market data
Liquid fuels, primarily gasoline and By contrast, electric motors are very
diesel from oil, are considered energy efficient, using 90-95% of the input
dense, allowing vehicles to be driven energy to power the movement of the
long distances before refuelling. vehicle. But the challenge with electric
Drivers can fill their tanks easily in a vehicles is storing enough energy
few minutes at refuelling stations. One in batteries to provide adequate
drawback with combustion of fuels in driving range, as well as recharging
engines is that most of this energy is that battery without excessive
wasted as heat, with typically 20-30% inconvenience to drivers. Fortunately
conversion efficiencies (with hybrids batteries have been improving and
at the high end). becoming less expensive over time.

Every design and commercialised EV made in the last few years, making
now relies on some type of lithium-ion batteries more compact, lighter, more
based battery, a technology which durable (to last the life of the vehicle)
has matured over the last 25 years for as well as charge fully in a few minutes.
use in portable electronics, especially Circling around this is costs, which
cell phones and portable computers, are measured per kWh of capacity. A
replacing all other batteries. Lithium- common target is USD150/kWh for
ion batteries offer relatively high full battery packs, a point at which the
energy density, high specific energy overall (purchase plus energy) costs
and good cycle life. of an EV can become competitive with
We are at a new phase in that ICE vehicles. In Figure 2, a multi-source
maturation, scaling production, study by two Swedish researchers
performance and packaging shows the progress through 2014 and
of lithium-ion batteries cells in show the USD 50/kWh target by 2030.
sophisticated, managed packs for A 2016 report suggests costs could
vehicles and other uses, such as large fall to USD100/kWh achievable within
storage batteries for use with the a decade (Bloomberg New Energy
electric grid. Much progress has been Finance and McKinsey & Co., 2016).
Figure 2: Estimates of costs of lithium-ion batteries for use in electric vehicles
Figure 2: Estimates of costs of lithium-ion batteries for use in electric vehicles

Estimates of costs of lithium-ion batteries for use in electric vehicles
2 000
95 % confidence interval, whole industry
1 900
95 % confidence interval, market leaders
1 800
Publications
1 700
News items with expert statements
1 600
Log fit of news, reports, and jornals: 12 +
_ 6% decline
1 500
Additional cost estimates without clear method
1 400
Market leader Nissan Motors, Leaf
1 300
2014 USD per kWh
Market leader Tesla Motors, Model S

1 200
Other battery electric vehicles
1 100
Log fit of market leaders only: 8 +_ 8% decline
1 000
Log fit of all estimates: 14 +
_ 6% decline
900
Future costs estimated in publications
800
<$150 per kWh goal for commercialization
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bjrn Nykvist and Mns Nilsson, 2015

Source: Nykvist and Nilsson (2015).
1 0 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
In addition to lithium-ion batteries, Apart from the evolution of batteries,
there are many other battery scientists and experts have seen a
chemistries under development, huge potential for ultracapacitors
such as lithium-air batteries, that are as an alternative or supplementary
considered highly promising because electricity storage device that
of their potential for delivering higher could lead to a major change in
energy per unit of mass and volume. performance of EVs. Lithium-ion
Lithium-air batteries have a number batteries convert and store energy
of drawbacks4 such as lower energy by means of a chemical reaction,
efficiency and faster degradation whereas ultracapacitors store energy
rates. Still, Li-air technology offers by employing an electric field.
key performance attributes beyond
As a result, while batteries take a
the technical limits of conventional
long time (hours) to discharge,
lithium-ion batteries.
ultracapacitors can quickly discharge
MIT researchers developed a new (in seconds or minutes) with large
concept of li-oxygen that could be bursts of power. Lithium-ion batteries
used as lithium-air batteries, while can typically charge and discharge
overcoming its drawbacks. For up to 10000 times (cycles) whereas
fast-charging lithium-ion battery ultracapacitors have a cycle life of
production, a start-up in Israel has 1million times. However, ultracapacitors
been established. This company typically have a low energy density
used nanotechnology to create new compared to lithium-ion batteries, and
organic materials for batteries that are more expensive per kW of power.
can recharge in 30 minutes.5 These With significant improvements in
materials have the potential to increase energy density, ultracapacitors might
charging speed in comparison with penetrate the market and help improve
conventional lithium-ion batteries. EV performance.
4 http://news.mit.edu/2016/new-lithium-oxygen-battery-greatly-improves-energy-efficiency-
longevity-0725
5 http://fortune.com/2015/08/19/electric-car-battery-charges-minutes/
Ele c tr i c Vehicles | Technology B rief 1 1

Light duty electric vehicle sales
As shown in Figure 3, PHEV and BEV in 2015. In 2016, sales are expected to
light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales have be close to 1 million EVs, with nearly
grown rapidly over the past five years, half the sales coming from China.
reaching nearly 500000 worldwide As shown in Table 1, EV sales and
in 2015 in the worlds eight largest market share are quite variable across
markets (China, US, Japan, Germany, different major car markets, with the
France, UK, Norway and the 2015 market share over 20% in Norway,
Netherlands), representing more than nearly 10% in the Netherlands, 3% in
95% of EV sales worldwide. PHEVs California (though less than 1% in the
started a bit slower than BEVs but entire US), and less than 2% in other
their share of overall sales has risen countries (though with China showing
and was about 45% (with BEVs the highest overall sales and biggest
representing the remainder 55%) in sales increase over the past year or
2015. However, these combined sales two). Worldwide, the close-to-half-
represent only about 0.5% of the million sales of EVs in 2015 was about
nearly 90 million LDVs sold worldwide 0.5% of the LDVs sold around the world.
Figure
Figure 3: Electric
3: Electric vehicle
vehicle salessales in worlds
in worlds 8 largest
eight largestmarkets,
markets,byby
type
type
500
400
300
Thousands
200
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
BEV sales PHEV sales
TableTable
1: Global EV sales
1: Global by country,
EV sales 8 biggest
by country, markets
8 biggest markets
Country Est Total PEVs. Est. PEV Sales PEVs as % of Total LDV market
Feb 2016 2015 2015 market 2015
1 USA >415 000 >115 000 0.6% 17 500 000
California >189 000 >62 000 3.1% 2 100 000
2 China 300 000 207 000 0.8 % 22 000 000
3 Japan (est) 150 000 25 000 >1.0 % 4 200 000
4 Netherlands 91 000 43 000 9.6% 420 000
5 Norway 90 000 34 000 >20% 170 000
6 France >70 000 27 000 1.5% 2 000 000
7 Germany >50 000 24 000 0.75% 3 500 000
8 UK (est) >38 000 >28 000 >1.0% 2 700 000
Europe >193 000
World >1 100 000 >450 000 0.5% 88 000 000
Looking to the future, UC Davis Figure 4 shows these four generations

has developed a four-generation of vehicles between 2010 and 2030,
model of passenger car EV technology with new generations of EV emerging
development to characterise about every five years. Recent (2016)
what will likely will occur with on- model introductions such as the
going market development, as has updated Chevrolet Volt and Nissan
been the experience of other new Leaf indicate that EVs are entering the
technologies such as hybrid vehicles. second phase.
Figure 4: EV rollout scenario

Ele c tr i c to 2030 | Technology
Vehicles B rief 1 3
Figure4:4:EV
Figure EVrollout
rollout scenario
scenario to 2030
to 2030
A plausible PEV rollout scenario based on

technology change, incentives and history of
4th
previous technology rollouts
generation:
This sales curve 3rd
would be similar to
PEVs begin
generation: to dominate
the rollout of HEVs in
2 generation
nd batteries,
Japan & California, 2030
1997 -2015 improved vehicles,
batteries, core market California
1 st generation PEVs 2025 ZEV goal
more driving = 15% / 1.5
early policy, competitive
range, million BEVS,
converted FCV & PHEVs
followers
vehicles, 2025
Adequate
innovators
infrastructure
& early Main market
15-25%
infrastructure 2020 Early core
market:
2015 6-15%
2010 1 - 2% 3-5% of market
700 200 300 150 Lithium pack prices per kWh
Source: developed by Tom Turrentine, UC Davis
Second-generation vehicles already Prius have given way to models with

on the market around the world show at least 30km of battery range and
significant improvements in range some (such as the new GM Volt and
and other attributes compared to Ampera models) exceeding 60km.
first-generation vehicles (Figure5).
These higher range PHEVs typically
BEVs routinely show range over
are driven far more on electricity than
150km per full charge, with some
lower-range models, partly because
models (notably the Tesla S and
coming Tesla 3 and Chevrolet Bolt) buyers are more interested in electric
showing 300-plus kilometres of driving. These new models also tend
range. On the PHEV side, low-range to be cheaper than the older first-
models such as the original plug-in generation models.
Figure
Figure 5: Secondgeneration
5: Second generationEVs,EVs, 2015-2020
2020-2015
2nd Generation PEVs (2015-2020) include higher range

and more efficient, popular designs
st
1 Generation 2 nd Generation
PHEV 20 - 30 kms PHEV 30 - 50 kms
PHEV 60 PHEV 80
BEV 120 BEV 150
BEV 250 -300 BEV 300 - 450
25
Sources: Compiled market data from Blogspot website (http://ev-sales.blogspot.com);

European Alternative Fuels Observatory (www.eafo.eu); Inside EVs website (http://insideevs.com);
various manufacturer websites
Sales of other types of electric vehicles

In addition to electrified conventional There is also a large market for two-
LDVs, a significant market exists for wheelers (including e-bikes) and an
low-speed electric vehicles (LSEV) emerging market for electric trucks
four-wheeled vehicles that are and buses. In fact there are far more
not certified for highway use, and electric two-wheelers worldwide than
typically lighter, have less power cost there are four-wheelers, thanks to the
less. They typically have a top speed large numbers sold in China over the
of 50-70km/h. These are popular in past decade. Sales in China over the
Asia (particularly China); in Europe past decade have been rising, with
the most successful model is the stocks now over 200 million units,
Renault Twizy, with over 15000 sold including electric scooters, mopeds
so far (Kane, 2015). and electric bicycles (Cherry, 2016).

As shown in Figure 6, sales in Asia grow fairly rapidly in more countries.
in 2015 approached 40 million units, No clear data has been found on the
mainly in China and Japan (ITDP/ sales or stocks of electric trucks, but
UCDavis, 2015). Sales in the rest of these are mostly demonstration and
the world were estimated to be about small-production vehicles. However,
2 million, mainly in Europe. This study there are certain niches where the use
projects a sales growth to 60million of electric trucks could rise rapidly
in Asia and 4million elsewhere in a such as smaller service and delivery
business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. trucks. Some countries have started
Typically the two-wheelers sold in deploying electric trucks and related
China and other developing regions infrastructure. For example, Sweden
have lead acid batteries, while those has established the worlds first
sold in Japan and Europe have electric road (e-way) for electrically-
lithium-ion batteries. powered trucks. This is still on a
Electric trucks and buses small-scale, a two-km strip, where
are also emerging, with over electrified trucks receive electricity
150000 electric buses in service from a catenary system with
around the world, mostly in China pantograph power collector. These
(InternationalEnergyAgency, 2016). trucks are integrated with a lithium-
This represents a very rapid increase ion 5kWh battery that allows driving
over the past two to three years, and as far as three km when not running
the number is expected to continue to on the e-way (Scania AB, 2016).
FigureFigure 6: E-bike
6: E-bike sales in
sales in Europe,
Europe,20142014
8 70
Asia Pacific (line graph, right axis)

7 60
6
50
Sales ex. Asia Pacific (mil)
5
Asia Pacific Sales (mil)
Rest of World (bars, left axis) 40

4
30
3
20
2
1 10
0 0
2015 2020 2025 2030
Africa Middle East E. Eur W. Eur Lat. Amer. N. Amer. Asia Pacific
Source:
Source: ITDP/UC
ITDP/UC Davis, 2015 Davis, 2015
Costs, markets and consumers
Two main factors are needed to make must compete on price, which
the deployment of EVs a success: is difficult given the low prices of
support of government actions and competing ICE models. In premium
popularity with consumers. This markets, price equivalence is less
means they must compete well with important but high performance
conventional vehicle models; thus they (such as acceleration and perceived
must have desirable attributes such overall quality) is a critical. Tesla has
as an enjoyable driving experience, succeeded mainly by competing on
sufficient driving range, and good this basis.
green credentials.
Thus the cost attributes of electric
Policymakers can make EVs more vehicles such as first (purchase)
attractive with actions such as cost, running cost and their combined
subsidies to lower upfront costs total cost of ownership (TCO) are
and urban-access measures such important in affecting demand. And
as premium parking spots. In these attributes are changing rapidly,
addition, EVs must also be offered as described above, for example, with
in a wide range of shapes and sizes respect to declining battery costs.
(i.e.different market segments, price From the policy side, a key question
points, etc) and there must be a policy is the extent to which subsidies (and
environment that is supportive and the level of subsidies) will be needed
creates at least a level playing field for
in order to sell large numbers of
them to compete.
vehicles. Related to this is the cost
Consumers must be aware of vehicle to society of such subsidies, and the
models available on the market explicit or implicit cost per tonne for
and gain a level of confidence high the CO2 emissions reductions that
enough that they become willing to electric vehicles provide.
spend large sums of money on these
models rather than conventional Estimating such costs, and likely costs
vehicles. Even in California, as of 2015 in the future, is complicated by the
a relatively high number of new car large number of factors that could
buyers were not even aware they influence these calculations. One
can purchase EVs at most of their factor is how far individuals drive per
local dealerships (Kurani, Caperello, year, since the fuel-cost advantage of
and Tyree-Hageman, 2016). Buyers EVs rises with the use of the vehicle.
shopping in smaller-car segments Another is the CO2 savings of electric
tend to be particularly price sensitive, vehicles, which depend heavily on
and this is where many of todays EVs the CO2 intensity of the electricity
are being marketed (Fulton, Tal and they run on. An EV that operates
Turrentine, 2016). So these vehicles for 15 years can have an on-going

reduction in its CO2 intensity if the Figure 7c and Figure 7d shows
grid is decarbonised over this period, these breakeven points a different
which should be accounted for in way: based on the relative cost of
comparisons with ICE vehicles. gasoline (or diesel) and electricity.
Here we take the case of a driver
A few examples illustrate the range going 16000kmperyear and
of factors that may make electric compare the three options for 2015
vehicles more or less competitive with (Figure 7c) and 2030 (Figure 7d)
conventional vehicles. In Figure 7a, a across a series of different fuel-
conventional ICE vehicle, efficient ICE price combinations. In 2015, with
vehicle (such as a non-plug-in hybrid), the assumptions about vehicle
and a BEV are compared for a TCO technologies and costs, a breakeven
across a range of driving levels per year. point occurs at a combination of
In the 2015 calculation, with battery about USD 1.50/litre for gasoline
with USD0.14/kWh for electricity. In
pack costs set at USD350/kWh,
2030, with the changes in vehicle
EVs typically USD 10000 more
costs (particularly the lower battery
than conventional ICE vehicles,
costs), the breakeven point is much
and the hybrids USD 3000 more.6
more attractive for EVs: USD1.25/litre
The net cost of all three vehicle types
matched with USD0.16/kWh.
rises with vehicle use but EVs will
never reach cost parity, even for These figures are simply examples of
heavy users who travel more than possible breakeven points, and show
20000km/year. the wide range of relative economics
depending on a range of factors. They
In Figure 7b a similar situation is shown also suggest that the breakeven points
for a future date (perhaps 2025 or may become much more favourable
even 2020), with battery costs to EVs in the future. This could mean
dropping to USD50/kWh and the that no subsidies are needed and
incremental first cost of the EV the cost per tonne is therefore zero
down to USD 5000 per vehicle. (for whatever level of CO emissions
2
Fuel costs are somewhat higher by reductions are achieved). As noted,
then (USD1.25 per litre for gasoline other non-cost factors also influence
and USD0.14/kWh for electricity). the demand for electric vehicles. The
In this case, anyone driving more exact combination of attributes and
than 15000 km breaks even on costs that would create a robust EV
ownership cost. market without subsidies or other
6 The EV vehicle cost increment is based on a 35 kWh battery pack resulting in about
USD12000 in battery costs, and USD2000 savings from eliminating the ICE engine/drive
train and replacing with a motor system. The fuel costs are based on USD per litre gasoline
and USD0.12/kWh electricity, with 10 years of driving and a 10-year discount rate. This analysis
could be repeated based on many other assumptions.
Figure 7: Conventional ICE, Efficient ICE, and EV life-cycle cost comparison by:
(a) driving levels per year, 2015, (b) driving levels per year, 2030,
(c) combinations
(a) 2015of fuel prices, 2015, (d) combinations ofFuture
(b) fuel prices, 2030
44 000
of Ownership
(a) 2015 43 000 (b) Future
of Ownership
42 000 42 000
44 000
Ownership
40 000 41
43 000
000
Ownership
42 000
38 000 40
42 000
39 000
41 000
ofCost
40 000
36 000
ofCost
38 38
40 000
000
34 000
000
Total
37
39 000
Total
Total Cost
36 000
32
Total Cost
36
38 000
34 000 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
37 000
32 000 Thousand kms of driving per year Thousand kms of driving per year
36 000
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Thousand kms of driving per year Thousand kms of driving per year
2015 Average ICE 2015 Efficient ICE 2030 BEV 2030 Average ICE 2030 Efficient ICE 2030 BEV
(c) 2015 (d) Future
48 000 46 000
46 000 (c) 2015 (d) Future
Fuel (USD)
44 000
Fuel (USD)
44 000 42 000
48 000 46 000
42 000
46 000 40 000
(USD)
44 000
(USD)
40 000
44 000 38 000
42 000
38 000
Fuelof
Fuelof
42 000 36 000
36 000 40 000
Cost ofCost
Cost ofCost
40 000
34 000 34 000
38 000
38 000
32 000 32 000
36 000
36 000
0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 34 000 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00
34 000
32 000 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 32 000 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10
Fuel price combinations
0.75 Fuel1.00price1.25
combinations
1.50 1.75 2.00 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00
(top row USD/L gasoline; bottom row USD/kWh electricity) (top row USD/L gasoline; bottom row USD/kWh electricity)
0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10
2015 Average ICE 2015combinations
Efficient ICE 2015 BEV 2030 Average ICEFuel price
2030combinations
Efficient ICE 2030 BEV
Fuel price
(top row USD/L gasoline; bottom row USD/kWh electricity) (top row USD/L gasoline; bottom row USD/kWh electricity)
promotional policies can be difficult years, typical costs for home chargers
to determine, as are the resulting in the United States have been around
costs per tonne of CO2 reduction. USD1200 per unit, with Level2
(slow) public chargers anywhere
Costs of electric vehicles are not
limited to ownership and driving. from USD 5000 to USD10000, and
There are also costs associated fast Direct Current (DC) chargers
with the infrastructure. The cost as high as USD60000 (Agenbroad
of chargers varies considerably, and Hollandl , 2014). Data for other
particularly for public chargers, and countries is difficult to obtain, and
can depend on the extent to which unit costs may be lower in some,
electricity upgrades are needed and particularly China. Total recharging
brick and mortar construction is infrastructure costs in the future
involved. In the past two to three will depend significantly on scale of

Electric Vehicle Charging and Interactions
with Electricity Grids
production and installation and on daily driving is often within the
the ratios of public slow and fast range of most EV models, and all
chargers to the numbers of vehicles. PHEV models (since these can run on
liquid fuel as well). In addition, fast
Electric vehicles need to be
charging increases battery stress and
recharged on a regular basis, and
degradation.
this can occur either at home or
at work, when shopping, or during Figure 8 shows the current numbers
other types of stops when travelling. of different types of chargers
A general issue for EVs has been the by country and region for major
long duration needed for charging EV markets in 2015. Given about
typically up to eight hours for a full 1.2million EVs running in these
charge when using Level 1 slow countries, there are about the same
chargers. Faster charging is desirable number of private outlets (not
though not needed in all situations surprisingly), while there are just
(such as overnight), and considerable under 200000 public chargers, with
research is emerging that suggests over 80% of these slow chargers. The
that the need for public fast charging US has the highest number of private
stations may be modest, given that chargers, with China having the most
Figure 8: Numbers of electric vehicle chargers by major market, 2015

Private Publicly available, slow Publicly available, fast
1.3 million outlets 162 000 outlets 28 000 outlets
7%
1%
4%
4% 2% 7%
3% 12 %
4%
32 % 4%
29 % 4%
6% 5% 44 %
7% 13 %
6%
18 %
10 % 25 % 10 % 22 %
11 %
China Japan United States United Kingdom Germany

Norway France Netherlands Sweden Canada Others
Note: Private charges are estimated assuming that each CV is coupled with a private chargers.
Global EV outlook 2016 (International Energy Agency (IEA))
public chargers and nearly half of the controlled charging. V2B refers to a
fast public chargers world-wide. home storage battery usage with no
feedback to the grid, while controlled
EVs may interact with the grid via
charging and discharging. The first charging gathers signals from the grid
mode is referred as G2V where the to optimise the charging speed and
vehicle is charged from the grid, time based on grid congestion. Few
while V2G refers to when vehicles charging systems around the world
discharge power to the grid. The V2G currently use bi-directional charging,
mode could also be considered as a but various testing programmes
bidirectional charging, in which an are underway (Mwasilu etal., 2014).
EV can charge from and discharge REmap has set a target of 160 million
to the grid at regular intervals. There EVs in operation by 2030, resulting in
are also other charging modes such significant global EV energy storage
as vehicle to building (V2B) and capacity (IRENA, 2016a).
Electric vehicles and renewable energy deployment

Depending on the national For example, a study in Portugal
circumstances of power markets, modelled the integration between a
grids, fuel mix and other factors that high vehicle share of EVs and a large
can play a role for integration of VRE scale of deployed solar PVs on the
sources to the grid, electric vehicles grid by 2030 and 2050. It found EVs
are among the key technologies that to be a solar PV enabling technology,
can help to provide flexibility to the and a potentially promising solution
power system. This occurs by using to the surplus electricity generated
by solar PV (Nunes, Brito and Farias,
EV batteries to store excess electricity
2013). Another possible value of
and to provide ancillary services to
batteries is for stationary storage
the grid, such as frequency regulation,
at the end of the life-time of the
shaving peak demand and power
EV (Mwasilu etal., 2014). China is
support to enhance the operation,
expected to have 12000 charging
and reserve capacity to secure the stations by 2020. A study by the China
grid. One of the main advantages of National Renewable Energy Centre
EVs are their high level of flexibility in (CNREC/ERI, 2015) indicated that
charging times which can efficiently the storage benefits of the increased
support operation of the grid. A use of EVs will help China attain
number of studies have emerged higher shares of variable renewable
finding value in the linkage between power (IRENA, 2016b). Notably,
EVs and VRE. storage might not be urgently

needed before an 80% of renewables According to IRENAs REmap analysis,
share (WeissandShulz, 2013). EVs if a target of 160 million EVs worldwide
deployment levels are growing, which can be reached by 2030, this would
results in more demand for renewable provide around 8000GWh/year in
power. This could make ambitious battery storage that could enhance
levels of as high as 80% for renewables installed power generation capacity.
in the power mix attainable, especially This is equivalent to approximately
for countries with a high renewable 1200GW of battery storage capacity.
energy targets. Along with the pumped hydro storage
IRENAs electricity storage roadmap and second-hand batteries estimated
indicates that EVs can be used to under REmap by 2030, this adds up
enable a higher share of renewables to a total of 1650GW. This compares
in three ways: with approximately 3 700 GW of
variable renewable power capacity.
(1) The V2G scheme allows electric
vehicles to participate in grid ancillary Figure 9 shows the usage factor
services such as frequency regulation, (battery storage in deployed EVs
load shifting, demand response, or in GWh/VRE capacity in GW) per
energy management support in home; country. For example, in Australia,
Denmark and the US, the usage factor
(2) EV batteries can receive a second
shows potential for deployed battery
life for stationary applications. For
storage capacity, which could help
example, China is already engaged in
scale up variable renewable power.
a 14MW project to assess grid support
through the use of second-life lithium- EVs could be an enabler to achieve
ion batteries (IRENA, 2015); a higher share of VRE in the power
system. To achieve this, some or all
(3) EVs could be designed so that
of the following will probably be
batteries are replaced rather than
necessary:
charged at changing stations. This
concept has been piloted in Israel and (i) Actively using the mobile
Denmark and is now being introduced battery storage system in the vehicle
to buses in China (IRENA, 2015). in V2G applications.
Figure 9: The usage factor of EVs battery storage capacity
Figure 9: the usage factor of EVs battery storage capacity with respect to the VREs installed capacity
with respect to the VREs installed capacity
5
3.75
GWh/GW
2.5
1.25
0
us a
ia
um
na
ia
ly
co
ea
ey
SA
zi
yp
ar
tin
ad
di
bi
ic
an
pa
al
op
do
ra
or
rk
hi
oc
U
fr
It
In
ra
gi
Eg
tr
m
an
Ja
en
C
B
Tu
hi
ng
or
el
en
A
er
C
Et
rg
of
h
B
Ki
di
A
ut
A
lic
d
So
Sa
te
ub
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ep
U
R
Usage Factor Reference Case Usage Factor Remap 2030
(ii) Use of second-hand batteries (iv) Evolution in consumer

in a second life role as stationary behaviour of EV owners, for example,
battery storage systems; becoming comfortable with variable
charging rates and times.
(iii) Widespread deployment
of charging technologies and (v) Provision of other ancillary
infrastructure. services from EVs to the grid.

Figure 10: How electric vehicles could attract more renewable power
Figure 10: How electric vehicles could attract more renewable power
Use of mobile batteries

Use of second-hand
in vehicles
stationary batteries from EV
Variable
Renewable Electric Vehicles
Power (EV)
(VRE)
Provision of ancillary Deployment of charging technologies

services from EV to the and infrastructure for EVs
grid
Evolution in consumer behavior
In Figure 10, a schematic diagram (i) impacts on distribution networks;

illustrates the interaction of the (ii) load duration curves involved;
various key factors. (iii) the role of DSM; and
(iv) the degradation of the battery.
To investigate the impact of EVs on
the grid and how EVs can be best Therefore, the way these parameters
integrated, two main aspects must be can positively enhance the
considered. First, driving and charging integration of EVs with the grid needs
behaviour, which can be collected to be analysed. A number of studies
by daily travel surveys to develop already have been undertaken,
charging load profiles. Second, the but ongoing research is needed as
types of charging used and charging charging patterns will likely evolve as
frequency to identify the proportion more people purchase EVs, vehicle
and typical daily patterns of slow and driving ranges increase with newer
fast charging demand. models, and more charging options
become available.
There is a strong interlinkage
between charging patterns and the One key type of EV impact is on
other parameters on the grid, such as distribution grids. As a result (shown
in Figure 8), grid topology is a key The second concept was V2G,
area for research. Uncontrolled whereby grids charge vehicles,
charging of EVs could significantly allowing power to flow from the
increase the evening load peak.
vehicle back to the grid. The aim
One study that investigated a local
was to control the charging of the
grid with uncontrolled charging of
EVs found that Load Management EV in a way that the load at the
Systems (LMS) could play an transformer is always balanced. Both
important role in stabilising grid concepts could yield a decrease in
operations as the number of EVs rises the transformer load by shifting the
(Probstet al.,2011). In this study, there charging of EVs to lower demand
were two different concepts of LMS
periods (such as night time) or to PV
investigated to solve this problem
peak times in the early afternoon.
of uncontrolled charging. The first
concept was G2V, where grids charge Further, the use of V2G allows
vehicles by calculating the desired feeding energy back to the grid in
load profile for the transformer. evening hours at peak load times.
Figure 11: a diagram shows the concept of a load management system,
(adapted from Probst et al, 2011)
Figure 11: A diagram shows the concept of a load management system
Communication
Transformer
10 kv/400v
Load
management
system
Communication
Adapted from Probst etal. (2011)

The role of demand-side management
Given the rise in the supply of variable batteries in manufacturing influences
renewable power, the evolution of VRE integration The model indicates
smart grids is very important as it that the energy flexibility of
allows customers to control and manufacturing systems supported
make well-informed decisions on by embodied energy storage can
their consumption of electricity, as improve VRE integration, offering
well as minimise their bills. This kind an alternative to the EV battery.
of consumption control is called DSM However, stationary batteries are
(Davito, Tai and Uhlaner, 2010). DSM shown to be more effective than
can help customers in optimising EVs due to uninterrupted availability
their consumption through an (Beier etal., 2016).
intelligent system, and can greatly
Another element that strongly
support customers in shifting their
impacts the grid is charging schemes.
loads during peak periods. For
Efficient charging schemes can
residential consumers, DSM systems
significantly boost the deployment of
inform them about when they can
EVs. Studies have shown that the G2V
cheaply consume electricity.
mode can provide ancillary services
An example now available from Honda like frequency regulation to the grid
is the Home Energy Mangement and also indicate that most benefits
System (HEMSx). This is a stationary of the V2G mode could be gained by
battery-storage system that monitors using G2V. However one concern is
and controls household electricity that repeated charging cycles from
consumption, including EV charging. V2G/G2V may have unfavourable
It can help consumers decide when effects on the battery. A study
to buy power and when to sell it back examined the lithium-ion battery
to the grid. The value of this system performance based on the V2G
is simply to calculate when to buy scheme, taking into consideration the
and to sell the power. Honda is trying driving scenarios, charging schemes,
to make the most efficient home and and peak shaving.
vehicles by actively coordinating
The results indicate that the V2G
energy production and consumption
scheme could reduce the battery
(Honda, 2016).
lifetime by almost 3 years due
The integration of EV with the to the extensive discharging
manufacturing industry could also cycles. However this may be
improve the integration of renewable mostly avoidable by applying
power. A recent study developed smart charging schemes which
a model to assess how using EV carefully manage charge cycling.
(Guentheretal., 2013). An analysis schemes and consumer behaviour,
on using different charging modes the policy support could be a key role
indicated that EV impacts on the in enhancing the integration of the
system peak load could be reduced if EV in the grid. These aforementioned
EVs will not have full battery capacity benefits of integration of EV into the
charged as soon as they connect gird could allow more penetration of
to the grid. Since there is a strong renewable power, which will result in
interlinkage between the charging decarbonisation of the power sector.
Smart charging
Slow charging is typically referred the world to build a fast-charging
to as overnight charging which network.
typically takes between six and eight
The need to understand how to best
hours. Fast charging can be defined
as any scheme that is faster than charge, aggregate and control EV
slow charging. Fast charging is more load on the grid is a fundamental
convenient, in particular for vehicles and on-going issue. EV smart
that require frequent trips, such as charging can be used to support
taxis. In a single ten-minute charge the distribution grid management,
cycle, a fast charger can provide and efficiently improve the operation
enough energy to drive 300miles of EVs.
(the range achieved by Tesla). Fast
The increased use of different
charge scheme can help enabling
electro-mobility mainly depends on
rapid growth of the EV market.
An experimental study on Nissan the charging network infrastructure,
leaf battery, in Nebbenes (aroundwhereas they act as an energy
buffer for the grid. Some studies
60km from Oslo) with a capability
demonstrate the attained great
of charging 28EVs simultaneously.
benefits of using V2G scheme. They
With all of recent models with driving
ranges up to 480km, the more indicated that adoption of V2G
battery capacity is, the longer time
requires an aggregator that controls
takes to recharge. Therefore, Porsche
the information exchange between
is taking the lead on building such a
the EV and the grid to facilitate
fast-charger for the whole VW Group
the interaction. The EVs can be
to support the new versions of EVs
aggregated and controlled under
with high batteries capacities. the virtual power plant (VPP). This
Porsche also in touch with other aggregator changes operation and
car makers and suppliers around controlling ways of the grid.

The VPP approach aims to effectively Europes biggest fast-charging
regulate and control the interaction network. This MOU has specific
between the EV with the grid. For targets for deployment: about
example, sMobilitTy (Smart Mobility 400fast charging stations for electric
Thringen) is a project developed to vehicles by 2017, and several thousand
investigate the role of smart charging by 2020. The MOU is separate from
technology among electro-mobility government plans for more 400 fast-
technologies. This smart-charging charging stations, which would bring
technology enables charging of to total to 800. This fast-charging
batteries when surplus electricity network will be based on Combined
is available at low prices, providing Charging System (CCS) technology,
balancing capacity. The EVs batteries which charges DC up to 350 kW in
can form a large virtual storage unit. comparison with Teslas deployed
Through the application of a smart- superchargers which delivers about
charging tool, EVs will be able to feed DC120kW.
all stored electricity back into the grid
In China, Beijing had about
whenever electricity demand is high,
8000 public and private charging
via a continuous connection with the
stations as of 2016. Beijing plans
grid infrastructure.
to install 435000 more charging
Several projects are currently stations between 2016 and 2020.
considering how to deploy EV However, more than a million EVs
smart charging, such as PlangridEV will be sold over the same period.
and Green-eMotion, but there is The Beijing Development and Reform
not yet a real commercial project Commission has set out to bring all
implemented. Green-eMotion calls for EVs and charging stations in one
open access to all public charging platform. This platform will facilitate
spots, which requires ICT systems to the charging process for consumers,
enhance interactivity between the in which they connect and pay for
EV drivers and charging locations. electricity at charging stations. Such
Establishment of a framework will platforms could reduce risk of peak
govern the process of installation of demand on the electricity grid (Chun,
charging infrastructure which requires 2016).
ICT systems. ICT counts as a main
Strong coupling between the
enabler of connecting all of e-mobility
electric power and transport sectors
technologies, such as EVs, e-buses,
is a target for many countries.
e-bikes and e-scooters.
Some countries have already taken
German carmakers BMW Group, initiatives to electrify their transport
Daimler AG, Volkswagen Group and sector. For example, the Swiss
Ford have signed a memorandum Federal Government has assessed
of understanding (MOU) to establish the interplay between the electricity
and transport sectors, considering met with variable renewable power as
both electricity supply and EV fleet nuclear power plants are phased out.
scenarios. Their modelling work Such a strategy could play a major
estimates that in a scenario where part in decarbonisation of both the
the EV fleet reaches between 30% Swiss electricity and transport sectors
and 75% by 2050, the significant (Kannan, 2016).
resulting electricity demand could be
Considering the Future:

Electric Vehicle Market Projections
According to IRENAs global ownership rates at different income
renewable energy roadmap (REmap) levels around the developing world.
(IRENA, 2016a), worldwide there is a The IEA assumes relatively low rates.
potential to increase the total number New mobility systems, such as car-
of electric vehicles to 160million. and ride-sharing, could greatly reduce
This is a very challenging target, the number of vehicles needed to
but if achieved would provide an move passengers.
important step toward raising the
renewable-energy share of the Figure 12 shows one possible manner
transport sector. As a target, this in which the 50 million sales target
total is split into 158million passenger for EVs could be reached: 30million
or LDVs, 1.4 million buses and in major markets (OECD countries
900000commercial vehicles. plus China), and 20million in the rest
of the world. In this scenario, EV sales
With constant sales growth (a
in major markets would need to grow
geometric increase), from the
500000 units sold in 2015, sales of by over 30% per year for the next
electric vehicles would need to rise 15 years; developing countries would
to about 50million units in 2030 not see significant take-up of EVs
to hit 160million around the world. for perhaps five to ten more years
This would represent nearly 40% of (providing more time for technology
the International Energy Agencys cost reduction as well as electricity
(IEA) projected total LDV sales of grid improvements and reductions in
138million in that year (IEA,2015). carbon intensities), but then show
Growth in LDV sales could vary growth of over 60% per year through
considerably, depending on the 2030 to catch up.

Figure 12: Projections of EV sales required to meet REmap estimates,
Figure 12:shown with the global
Projections of EVpassenger car salesto
sales required by meet
market,REmap
2030-2015
estimates, shown
with the global passenger car sales by market, 2015-2030
160
140
120
100
Millions
80
60
40
20
2015 2020 2025 2030
Major markets EV RoW EV
Major markets non - EV RoW non EV
Source: Base LDV sales projections from IEA ETP 2015, with EV projections developed for this technology brief.
Source:
RoW= rest of world.Base LDV sales projections from IEA ETP 2015, with EV projections
developed for this technology brief.
RoW= Rest of World.
In terms of total EV sales in different reaching 5million by 2023, 10million

years, the scenario has global sales by 2025, and over 40million by 2030.
Figure 13: Global annual EV sales to 2030 based on REmap
Figure 13: Global annual EV sales to 2030 based on REmap
50
45
40
35
30
Millions
25
20
15
10
5
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
Major Markets Other Markets
As Figure 13 shows, the steep growth overall market share rapidly, in place
rates needed suggest that a tipping of ICE vehicles. Given the trajectory
point may need to occur somewhere and the 40% market share position in
between 2020 and 2025 that is, the 2030, EVs would become dominant
point at which EVs become truly mass by 2040, accounting for well over half
market and start to increase their of LDV sales around the world.
180
Figure 14 shows the resulting total leader markets but then similar
stock of electric vehicles across major growth across all countries, as shown
world countries and regions, based in the figures above.
on higher growth early in the current
Figure 14: Total stock of electric vehicles by region

180
160
Vehicle Stock (millions)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
Projections of batteries and electricity demand

As discussed above, storage capacity to reduce grid-integration costs and
from electric vehicles can be used eliminate the need for most costly
for V2G and G2V applications. flexibility measures.
Batteries can also be used once the
Figure 15 shows the estimated battery
car reaches end of its life. Battery
storage in GWh from the stock of
packs typically offer a lifetime of
electric vehicles, consistent with the
between eight and ten years. Even
IRENA future EV scenario.
after the lifetime is exceeded they
offer storage potential, but with We assume that the average battery
lower capacity that can be as high as storage in EVs is 30kWh in 2015,
80% in some cases. Electricity stored rising to 60kWh by 2030, and is
in such stationary systems provides 10kWh in PHEVs in 2015, rising to
flexibility, as it can be released when 30kWh by 2030. Given the vehicle
the user needs it, such as when sales projections, this results in an
the electricity supply from VRE is estimated 8000GWh of batteries in
unexpectedly low. This can help also operation in LDVs around the world.
Figure15:
Figure 15:Total
Totalbattery
batterystorage
storage
onon electric
electric vehicles
vehicles by region
by region
9 000
GWh/year capacity
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
-
2015 2020 2025 2030
A significant amount of batteries improvement in stock-average on-

also could be in service from other road efficiency per year through
modes such as two-wheelers, buses 2030.
and trucks. These vehicles individually It is assumed that on average,
have very different battery capacities, BEVs travel 12000 km per year
and buses and trucks are used much on electricity, while plug-in
more intensively than privately-owned hybrid electric vehicles travel
vehicles, complicating that analysis. an average of 7000 km (plus
Those modes are not included in the considerable additional driving
estimates here. on liquid fuels). By 2030,
The total battery capacity on electric total distance driven rises for
vehicles by region links to the stock both types, to 15000 km and
and travel of EVs, with the following 12000km respectively.
assumptions: The results in terms the annual demand
It is assumed that the end-use, for electricity by region for BEVs and
on-road efficiency of BEVs starts PHEVs are shown in Figure 16. Total
at 0.21 kWh/km, with PHEVs
demand for electricity reaches about
(when operating on electricity) at
0.27kWh/km; each improves by 450TWhperyear, representing about
enough (both new vehicles and in- 1.5% of IRENAs projected 2030 global
use performance) to achieve a 1% electricity generation.

Figure 16: Total electricity demand by electric and plug-in
Figure 16: Total electricity demand by electric
hybrid electricand plug-in
vehicles byhybrid
regionelectric vehicles by region
500
450
400
350
TWh/year
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
2015 2020 2025 2030
EVs and VRE: Combining for low environmental impact

EVs offer a number of important such as trams, buses, etc (Automotive
environmental benefits. In urban News Europe, 2016).
areas, where most transport activity
While EVs do not emit any emissions
takes place, the impact of transport
during driving, the electricity they
on air pollution is significant. EVs do
consume can be produced from
not emit any air pollutants. Cities that
fossil fuels that emit air pollutants
have severe air-quality problems can
or CO2. Therefore, emissions must be
embrace EVs in their stock (for both
considered on a well-to-wheel basis
private vehicles and public transport)
in comparing their CO2 emissions to
and substitute ICEs. Recently, a
conventional vehicles. Well-to-wheel
number of European countries and
emissions depend on the efficiency of
cities have announced intended bans
the EV and the fuel mix of electricity
on ICEs or some types of ICEs (such
generation, which differs greatly
as diesels) (Pedestrian Observations,
across countries.
2016). In order to provide the same
transport service, cities are planning Figure 17 compares the CO2 intensity
to increasingly rely on EVs or shift of BEVs for modest efficiency
to other types of electric transport and high efficiency cases, across
different CO2 intensity levels, with of 68-78g CO2/km (ICCT, 2016).
the CO2 emissions of various internal Electricity must therefore be deeply
combustion engine vehicles. decarbonised for average-efficiency
As shown, a BEV of even modest BEVs to have a significant advantage.
efficiency can provide reductions Of course, this decarbonisation is
compared to an efficient LDV as long also necessary for BEVs to eventually
as the electricity is produced with provide a near-zero CO2 performance,
CO2 emissions below 600g/kWh. which is a long term goal.
However, to compare to todays best
Notably, Figure 17 uses tested
vehicles (such as small European or
efficiencies, which can be up to 50%
Japanese hybrids that can achieve
better than actual in-use performance.
below 100gCO2/km), the BEV must
This is true for EVs as well as for
be driven on electricity with a CO2 ICE vehicles, and more research is
emission factor below 400g/kWh for needed to better understand how a
moderate efficiency. wide range of vehicles performs in
A very efficient (and likely quite small) the real world. Finally, plug-in hybrid
BEV can beat todays best ICEs as long vehicles are not easy to represent in
as the electricity intensity is under a figure like this one since they use
600gCO2/kWh. By 2030, ICE vehicle both electricity and liquid fuel. A well
emissions will have to fall below designed PHEV should be able to hit
80g CO2/km, at least in Europe, close to both the hybrid vehicle CO2
where the European Commission and efficient-BEV CO2 levels shown in
is considering a 2025 standard the figure.
Figure 17: Relation between power plant CO2 emissions and vehicle efficiency
BEV, modest
200 efficiency
Vehicle C02 emissions/km
180 Efficient ICE

160 LDV, 2014
140
120 Best ICE,
100 2016
80 BEV, more
efficient Best ICE,
60 2030
40
20
0
8 00 6 00 4 00 2 00 0
Power plant C02 emissions, g/kWh
BEV modest (0.25 kW h/km) BEV efficient (0.15 kWh/km)

Figure 18 shows the same relationship or Denmark that has a renewable
from the perspective of entire energy share of about 80% is in the
countries according to IRENAs REmap range of 30 gCO2/passengerkm.
findings (IRENA, 2016a). By 2030, By comparison, in countries
countries would have a much higher where coal dominates the mix,
share of renewable energy in their such as Kazakhstan or Poland,
total power generation mix, displayed the emissions are on the order of
by the x-axis of the figure. With 100g CO2/passengerkm, close to
higher shares of renewables in the the level of an efficient petroleum
power generation mix, CO2emissions vehicle. A similar relationship exists
per kWh of electricity generated when power-plant emissions of air
decreases, as does the well-to-wheel pollutants are considered. Hence,
emissions of EVs. For example, the increased generation from renewable
g CO 2/passengerkm emissions power is critical to improving the
of an electric vehicle in Colombia environmental benefits of EVs.
Figure 18:
Figure Relation
18: between
Relation renewable
between energy shareenergy
renewable in total power
share generation
in totaland the electric
power vehicle CO2
generation
emissions, IRENA projection for 2030
and the electric vehicle CO2 emissions, IRENA projection for 2030
160
Reference petroleum vehicle:
Battery electric vehicle CO2 emissions (gCO2/passenger-km)
117 g CO2/passenger-km India

South Africa
140
Tonga
120 Kuwait Australia
Indonesia China
Dominican Republic
100 Saudi Arabia Kazakhstan
Russian Fed.
Poland
80 Iran - Japan Germany

Malaysia
UAE Belgium Morocco
Cyprus Egypt
Mexico Nigeria
60 Ukraine Turkey
Italy
USA
Rep. of Korea
Argentina
40
Ecuador
Colombia
Denmark
20 United Kingdom Canada
Ethiopia
Kenya Brazil Uruguay
France
0 Sweden
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Renewable share in total power generation (%)
Source: IRENA, 2016a
The need to reduce air pollution in Assuming all these EVs were to
cities will remain a major driver for consume 100% renewable electricity,
renewables in the sector. Transports then 480TWhperyear of additional
share of all energy used is 30% globally, renewable power would be required
but this differs between countries and in 2030 (approximately 1.5% of the
regions, depending on such factors total global electricity generation).
as population density, income level The share of electricity in transports
and weather. In many middle-income total energy demand would increase
and fast-growing cities the transport from 1% to 4% from 2013 to 2030.
sector makes up 50% or more of the EVs can also reduce noise pollution in
energy demand for the city, with road cities. In many cities, noise pollution
transport the largest component. from transport systems can surpass
Therefore, the largest contributor to 55decibels (dB) in certain areas,
local air pollution in many cities is which, according to the World Health
the transport sector. Benefits of EVs Organization, can pose health risks.
include less local air pollution and, EVs can be much quieter than ICE
depending on the power generation automobiles, with many operating at
mix, lower CO2 emissions. just 21dB.

Material requirements
EVs have some materials requirements higher share as EV sales drive demand
beyond those needed by conventional for lithium (IRENA, 2016b).
internal combustion engine vehicles.
As considered elsewhere in this brief,
These include rare-earth metals EVs have typical battery capacities, in
for motor magnets and lithium for recent models around 30kWh. This
lithium-ion batteries. The supply of is rising and is expected to reach
such materials, and risks associated 60kWh average by 2030. Depending
with resource availability, are an on the type, these batteries contain
important question. This is particularly 2-13kilogrammes (kg) of pure lithium.
true in a scenario where sales and Based on the growth in EV according
stocks of EVs rise rapidly over just a to REmap (all types, including two,
few years, which would happen in the three- and four-wheelers), total
REmap scenario of 160million EVs battery capacity in use will grow by an
by 2030. Here we briefly consider average of 500GWh per year between
the amount of lithium that would be now and 2030 (though starting well
needed in this scenario. below this and increasing over time
to well above this by 2030). That
Lithium is produced from brine lake
average is equivalent to 75kilotonnes
deposits and pegmatites, a type
(kt) per year of pure lithium demand
of crystalline rock. Brines account to 200kt, or 368kt to 1 100ktperyear
for about 60% of the total global of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE)
production. Lithium demand has production. This is more than three
grown exponentially in the past times the total production of lithium
years with the introduction of new today for all applications, indicating
technologies, not only in the energy a possible resource constraint given
sector, but also in communications demand for lithium for other uses will
and other sectors. Batteries account also grow. This appears particularly
for about 20% of the total lithium challenging after 2020 or 2025, as
demand today. This segment is the volume of cars sold reaches many
expected to make up an increasingly millions per year (IRENA, 2016b).
Achieving future EV targets: Technology and policy aspects
Apart from on-going improvements for each of the first 25000 EVs sold
in technology, hand in hand with and to raise the tax rate on gasoline
government actions and initiatives to 30% by 2030 to encourage people
on deployments of electric vehicles, to buy EVs. Also, since EV technology
in order to achieve significant will likely continue to evolve rapidly,
market shares, EVs will need to be along with infrastructure capacity and
competitive with conventional ICE consumer awareness, a given level
vehicles in multiple markets and with a of incentive should yield increasing
wide range of consumers within those returns in market share for EVs, as
markets (Fulton, Tal and Turrentine, has been the case in Norway.
2016). In every beachhead market Another approach is to require
for EVs around the world, policy automakers to make some percentage
makers have instituted a suite of of their sales be zero-emission, as
incentives to encourage buyers is done in California (which will
to try this new technology. The require an increasing share from 2017
main goals are to provide needed until 2025, reaching 15% of sales in
recharging infrastructure, reduce that year). More recently China has
purchase costs of the vehicles and indicated plans to apply a credit point
provide enough other advantages to system where, as of 2018, car makers
initiate a sustained transition and get will need to achieve EV sales credits
beyond a tiny fraction of sales within equivalent to 8% of their LDVs sold in
the LDV market. China (Der Spiegel, 2016). This would
In most countries these incentives represent a much steeper ramp-up
have sunset provisions. However, than under the California programme.
there is increasing recognition that Policy packages typically
some sort of incentive may be needed include national, regional and local
for many years, perhaps until first incentives. National incentives
costs equal those of conventional generally include subsidies such as
vehicles without subsidies. Incentives tax credits to reduce purchase costs.
can also include taxes on ICE vehicles, Regional (as in state, provincial)
as is done in many countries. High incentives have also included tax
ICE taxes are found in Norway, with and registration reductions, and
the highest EV market share in the in some cases reductions at the
world. Finland aims to catch up, with point of sale. Regional incentives
targets for 250000 EVs and only sometimes also include road-system
50000 ICE cars in the country by privileges, such as exclusive access
2030. To achieve this goal, they aim to special lanes on highways, or
to provide a subsidy of EUR 4000 reduced tolls for highways or ferries.

Local (metropolitan) provisions may in the US. The relative importance of
also include such advantages for different elements of policy among
EVs, and also often include special these various cities and countries is
or discounted parking and charging, difficult to know. In Norway, national
or special access to congested tax breaks can exceed USD30000
urban zones and to roadways such as (more than anywhere else) for some
bus lanes. expensive EV models, helping to offset
the price difference compared to an
A full list of incentive policies and equivalent ICE vehicle. Significantly,
their variability is too numerous to the auction system for cars in
cover here, but Table 2 provides a Shanghai provides an exemption for
comparison of three successful EVs that can be worth more than
cities (also including the regional USD10000 per car. Subsidies in the
and national policies affecting EVs US (and in particular in California
in those cities). These are Shanghai, where San Jose is), generally dont
China; Oslo, Norway; and San Jose exceed USD7500 for EVs.
Table 2: Comparison of electric vehicle policy incentives in three cities
Table 2: Comparison of electric vehicle policy incentives in three cities
China Shanghai Norway -Oslo USA-San Jose
National 2015 EV 209 000 (1%) 50 000 (30%) 115 000 (0.7%)
Sales (share of
total LDV sales)
Leading region 44 000 (16%) 12 140 (4%) 15 000 (10%)

2015 EV sales
Leading region 13 400 1 820 1 200

public charging
points
Federal nancial USD 3 500 8 500 Exemption of VAT (25% - USD 2 500 -7 500
incentive value up to USD 25 000
on USD 100 000 price
car)
Local nancial USD 1 500 - 4 500 USD 1 500 (PHEV)/
incentives 2 500 (BEV) California
EV rebate
Sales Tax Exemption of sales tax (10 %)

Registration tax Free registration (avoidance Exemption USD 3 500-
of ICE plate auction price 7 000; lower annual fee
USD 11 000-13 000)
Roads BEVs exempted from inner Bus lane access, free High-occupant lane
city road restrictions on toll roads (nationally access
vehicle registered outside worth USD 600- 1 200),
Shanghai reduced ferry rates
Parking Free parking in Free parking in

municipal garages metered parking; free
parking at many hotels
Charging Free charging at public Free charging at public Highest number of

charging stations, mobile charging stations workplace charging
phone App to search points in US
charging stations
Sources: Advisory Work on Global Benchmark Study on Policies Promoting Electro-Mobility

Europe Uwe Tietge, A. Campestrini, P. Mock ICCT (Draft Version January 2016); Analysis on
Chinas New Energy Automobile Policies and Incentive Toolkits, China EV 100 , November 2015;
Pathways to Electromobility perspectives based on Norwegian experiences E. Figenbaum,
M.Kolbenstvedt, TOI Report Oslo, May 2015.

Beyond the high levels of purchase Countries aiming for the systematic
incentives apparent in these cities and transformation of transport-related
countries, some of the key takeaways energy use need policies to promote
from the experiences of successful EVs. This involves gaining EV
cities and countries include the experience, initiating domestic EV
following: demonstrations, and understanding
how increasing numbers of EVs will
Markets with comparatively high
affect the transport and electricity
consumer spending power (like
sectors.
Norway, or states in the US like
California) can start by pushing to Low-carbon electricity generation
accelerate uptake, thereby increasing has to be scaled up at the same rate
EV production and bringing costs as EVs.
down so that other countries with

Public charging facilities are
lower income levels can afford
important, but fast charging need
such vehicles. And any country can
not be over-emphasised in the early
afford to tax higher CO2 vehicles
stages. The vast majority of private
to help pay for incentives for low
and public charging needs can be
CO2 models. adequately fulfilled without fast

Policy packages can incentivise charging. However, for households
electric driving, not just electric without private charging available,
buying. In particular, incentives could public charging becomes much
encourage the driving of PHEVs in more important, and the needs of
electric mode as much as possible. such households are still poorly
While this would be aided by high understood.
petroleum fuel prices, it could also
Overall, a combination of continued
be incentivised via charging a fee
technological improvement, strong
per kilometre, if electric kilometres
policy incentives, adequate charging
can be tracked separately from (and
infrastructure and much higher levels
changed a lower fee than) ICE-
of public awareness and experience
driven kilometres.
with EVs are all needed. All these
Combinations of pricing measures factors would be essential to reach
and regulations, with direct the EV stock target of 160million
government support for infrastructure in 2030, as set by IRENAs REmap
development, appear to work well. analysis in 2016.
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ELECTRIC VEHICLES

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For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org

Insights for Policy Makers........................................................................................................... 2

Technology Status and Performance.....................................................................................8

Light duty electric vehicle sales......................................................................................12

Sales of other types of electric vehicles.......................................................................15

Costs, markets and consumers........................................................................................17

Electric Vehicle Charging and Interactions with Electricity Grids........................ 20

Electric vehicles and renewable energy deployment.............................................21

The role of demand-side management...................................................................... 26

Considering the Future: Electric Vehicle Market Projections.................................. 29

Projections of batteries and electricity demand......................................................32

EVs and VRE: Combining for low environmental impact.................................... 34

Achieving future EV targets: Technology and policy aspects........................... 39

Ele c tr i c Vehicles | Technology B rief 3

Ele c tr i c Vehicles | Technology B rief 5

Electric vehicles and renewable energy deployment:

Considering the future: Electric vehicle market projections

Ele c tr i c Vehicles | Technology B rief 7

Ele c tr i c Vehicles | Technology B rief 9

Figure 2: Estimates of costs of lithium-ion batteries for use in electric vehicles

Market leader Tesla Motors, Model S

Bjrn Nykvist and Mns Nilsson, 2015

Ele c tr i c Vehicles | Technology B rief 1 1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

BEV sales PHEV sales

Source: UC Davis market data

1 USA >415 000 >115 000 0.6% 17 500 000

California >189 000 >62 000 3.1% 2 100 000

2 China 300 000 207 000 0.8 % 22 000 000

3 Japan (est) 150 000 25 000 >1.0 % 4 200 000

4 Netherlands 91 000 43 000 9.6% 420 000

5 Norway 90 000 34 000 >20% 170 000

6 France >70 000 27 000 1.5% 2 000 000

7 Germany >50 000 24 000 0.75% 3 500 000

8 UK (est) >38 000 >28 000 >1.0% 2 700 000

Europe >193 000

World >1 100 000 >450 000 0.5% 88 000 000

Source: UC Davis market data

Looking to the future, UC Davis Figure 4 shows these four generations

Figure 4: EV rollout scenario

A plausible PEV rollout scenario based on

Source: developed by Tom Turrentine, UC Davis

Second-generation vehicles already Prius have given way to models with

2nd Generation PEVs (2015-2020) include higher range

PHEV 20 - 30 kms PHEV 30 - 50 kms

BEV 120 BEV 150

BEV 250 -300 BEV 300 - 450

Sources: Compiled market data from Blogspot website (http://ev-sales.blogspot.com);

Sales of other types of electric vehicles

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Asia Pacific (line graph, right axis)

Rest of World (bars, left axis) 40

2015 2020 2025 2030

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(a) 2015 43 000 (b) Future

(c) 2015 (d) Future

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Figure 8: Numbers of electric vehicle chargers by major market, 2015

China Japan United States United Kingdom Germany

Electric vehicles and renewable energy deployment

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(ii) Use of second-hand batteries (iv) Evolution in consumer