14th Biennial Conference of Euromediterranean Network

of Experimental and Representative Basins (ERB)

Studies of Hydrological Processes in Research Basins:
Current Challenges and Prospects

ACTUAL FLASH FLOOD FORECASTING

POSSIBILITIES IN ROMANIA,
CASE STUDY CALNAU RIVER BASIN
FLASH FLOOD FROM 24-25 JULY 2011
SIMONA MATREATA1, OTILIA BACIU1, DALI APOSTU1, MARCELA GHEORGHE2,
MARIUS MATREATA1
1NationalInstitute of Hydrology and Water Management
2Ialomita-Buzau River Basin Administration

ROMANIA

St. Petersburg, 17 20 September 2012

Introduction
In the last decades and especially in the last years a
general increase of the frequency of extreme
flash flood events have been reported, floods that
generated significant damages and frequently also loss
of lives.
In particular in Romania, such extreme events occurred
in different regions of the country, most of the time
having catastrophic effects.
Due to the intensification of the high intensity torrential
precipitations events in the last years in many countries,
and the perspectives of further increase of the frequency
of such extremes events as results of the climate
changes, the needs for analysing and simulating the
hydrological processes associated with flash floods
events become more and more a priority for the
scientific hydrological community.
 Introducere

23.08.2005 r. Feernic

26.08.2007 r. Sambata
Introduction
The main causes that determine the occurrence of flash floods
are the rains with torrential character, having very high
intensities.
Another cause that favours the flash floods occurrence is
represented by the terrain with a high degree of
impermeability, especially encountered in the urbanized
areas.
Also the frequency and severity degree of the flash floods is
increased in the case of the slopes suffering serious
deforestations, the agricultural land being worked along the
slope or in the situations in which in basins with rough
terrain were modified by large scale urbanization.
 Introduction
Those kinds of floods have occurred almost in all the regions of the country, often
having a catastrophic character.

Locations of some representatives historical Flash Floods in Romania

General objectives
The papers main objective is to asses
the potential of the models that are
actually used in real-time warning and
forecasting of flash floods in Romania
(components of the new operational
HFMS-DESWAT Hydrological Forecasting
System), by a comparative analysis of
their simulations for a selected flash flood
event.
Finally, the selected event is simulated
also using a two dimensional hydraulic
model (the POTOP model).
HFMS-DESWAT Hydrological Forecasting System
A new national hydrological forecast and warning system
(HFMS) is now in advanced implementation phase, within
the Romanian Waters National Administration, in the
framework of DESWAT project.
The HFMS forecasting system is composed of 3 main
modeling components, specialized in the simulation and
forecasting of hydrological process evolution at different
spatial and temporal scales:
The conceptual hydrological forecasting model National
Weather Service River Forecasting System (NWSRFS),
with global parameters for basins with area greater
than ~200 km2;
The hydrological model with distributed parameters
NOAH- R, for detailed simulation of the hydrological
processes;
The Romania Flash Flood Guidance System
(ROFFG) for estimating in real time the risk of
occurrence of flash flood events.
 Romania Flash Flood Guidance
System - ROFFG
The Romania Flash-Flood Guidance system, which is an
adaptation of the Hydrologic Research Center (HRC, San
Diego, U.S.A.) Flash Flood Guidance System used in
various regions of the world to help forecasters to cope
effectively with flash floods warning.
The ROFFG is designed to provide flash flood
guidance information on a small basin scale (30
km2) across the entire country of Romania (8851
small basins).
ROFFG system
Products produced by the ROFFG system
include the following
RADAR 1,3,6 and 24 hours precipitations, 1km resolution
grid
MERGED MAP - Mean areal precipitation for each basin for
1, 3, 6 and 24 hour accumulations based on bias corrected
radar rainfall estimates and/or in-situ gauge estimates
GMAP (Gauge MAP) - Mean areal precipitation for each
basin for 1 hour (only) accumulation based on available
gauge data
ASM (Average Soil Moisture) - Average soil water
content for each basin (fraction of saturation for the upper
soil layer, nominally 20 cm)
FFG (Flash Flood Guidance) - Flash flood guidance is the
amount of rainfall for a given duration over a small basin
needed to create minor flooding (bankfull) conditions at the
outlet of the basin. So, FFG is an index that indicates how
much rainfall is needed to cause minimal flooding in a basin.
FFT (Flash Flood Threat) - amount of rainfall of a given
duration in excess of the corresponding FFG value.
NOAH-R model
The second component that could be used for
flash flood forecasting is the distributed
modelling component, which is mainly based on
the NOAH-R model, model that contains five
primary interacting physical process sub-models,
with a land surface model (LSM) which runs at
the radar-scale (1km), and overland and channel
routing model, nested within the LSM, at 100m
resolution.
Two dimensional hydraulic model - POTOP

POTOP (Amaftiesei R., 2006, 2007) a hydraulic

model for the floods formation and propagation in a
two dimensional space with/without initial runoff.
estimation in time and space for the evolution of
different hydraulic elements:
flooded areas, water levels,
depths, speeds,
discharges, flood volumes,
increasing and propagation times,
in different configuration scenarios of the basin, of
rain producing and of imposing some specific limit
conditions.
With these elements the potential risk areas can be
determined, where adequate methods are about to be
adopted.
Two dimensional hydraulic
model - POTOP
The program models the non - permanent two-
dimensional water movement with free surface,
through the numerical integration of the Saint
Vnant equation system, formed by the continuity
equation and the simplified movement equations
(maintaining only the friction term), written in
the plan on the OX and OY directions.
The numerical integration is made in the implicit
scheme, by linearization and the application of
the double deflection method extended to the
plan, alternatively on the network lines and
columns.
 CASE STUDY CALNAU RIVER BASIN FLASH FLOOD
FROM 24-25 JULY 2011
This flash flood was generated by a torrential rain event in the
upper part of the basin, with intensities exceeding 70 mm/hour and
total 24 amount > 150 mm (quantitative precipitations estimates
based on rain-gauge and radar information)

24 hours cumulated rainfall (ROFFG Radar Product)

Case study Calnau river basin flash flood from 24-25 July 2011

Calnau River - a tributary of

Buzau River, situated in the
south-eastern part of
Romania.
area: 208 km2,
mean altitude: 336 m,
mean basin slope: 8%,
mean river slope: 11,
forested coefficient: 12%
Case study Calnau river basin flash flood from 24-25 July 2011

H.s. Costomiru installed in 1969

Mean discharge (1969-2010): 0.178m3/s
Maximum recorded discharge : 115m3/s (24-25.07.2011).
(Previous maximum value: 94.9m3/s recorded in
21.08.1972)
Maximum discharges with different return periods :
0.1% - 286m3/s; 1% -166m3/s; 5% - 90.0m3/s; 10% -
61.0m3/s

H.s. Potarnichesti instaled in 1958

Mean discharge(1958-2010): 0.445m3/s
Maximum recorded discharge: 358m3/s (24-25.07.2011).
(Previous maximum value: 342m3/s - 13.07.2005).
Maximum discharges with different return periods :
0.1% - 635m3/s; 1% -370m3/s; 5% - 190m3/s; 10% -
130m3/s
Cumulated rainfall between 14.VII 06 UTC - 24 VII 06 UTC
ALADIN - 12 hours Forecasted Precipitation
Precipitatia prognozata de modelul ALADIN
ROFFG - RADAR 1 hour products
Maximum 1 hour accumulation
.

Costomiru automatic station recorded data (24-25 VII 2011)

Costomiru automatic station
 100
125

25
50
75

0
24/07/2011 0:00 Q (m3/s)

24/07/2011 3:00
24/07/2011 6:00
24/07/2011 9:00
Q (m3/s)

24/07/2011 12:00
24/07/2011 15:00
24/07/2011 18:00
H (cm)

24/07/2011 21:00
25/07/2011 0:00
CA

25/07/2011 3:00
25/07/2011 6:00
CI

h.s. Costomiru
25/07/2011 9:00
25/07/2011 12:00
H(cm)
CP

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500

T (hours)
100
200
250
300
350
400

0
50
150

24/07/2011 12:00
Q (m3/s)

24/07/2011 15:36
24/07/2011 19:12
24/07/2011 22:48
Q (m3/s)

25/07/2011 2:24
25/07/2011 6:00
H (cm)

24-25 VII 2011 flood event on Calnau River 25/07/2011 9:36

25/07/2011 13:12
CA

25/07/2011 16:48
h.s. Potarnichesti
CI

25/07/2011 20:24
26/07/2011 0:00
0
H(cm)
CP

25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250

T (hours)
 ROFFG - Products

ASM - 17 GMT

FFT 1 Hour - 17 GMT

ROFFG - Products
The ROFFG System detected the
flash flood event, all the flash
flood threat products (for 1, 3
and 6 hours) indicating the
exceedance of the threshold
values.

FFT ROFFG- ora 18-

1h; 3h; 6h
 25
50
75
100
125

0
24.07.2011 0:00
Q (mc/s)

24.07.2011 3:00

24.07.2011 6:00

24.07.2011 9:00

24.07.2011 12:00
Q-NOAH (m 3/s)

24.07.2011 15:00

h.s. Costomiru
24.07.2011 18:00

24.07.2011 21:00

25.07.2011 0:00
Simulation results with NOAH

25.07.2011 3:00
Qobs(m c/s)

25.07.2011 6:00

25.07.2011 9:00
T (days)

25.07.2011 12:00
NOAH-R distributed model simulation compared with the observed hydrograph
Simulation results with RFS h.s. Potarnichesti
Simulation results with hydraulic model - POTOP

Representative outputs that could be generated with POTOP

model:
maps which contained the network scheme
the terrain topography
and at any time step during the flood,
graphics representing the precipitation variation,
levels of the water free surface,
instantaneous or maximum recorded depths,
water speed,
depth hydrograph or levels of the free surface in any
network knot,
discharge hydrograph in any solicited section or in a
singular knot in which it was imposed a rating curve or a
discharge hydrograph
Simulation results with hydraulic model - POTOP

Two precipitation scenarios were considered:

1. 120 mm uniform 1 hour precipitation, and runoff
coefficient 0.55.
2. Non uniform precipitation, with the maximum (100 120
mm) concentrated in the upper part of the basin, 60 70
mm in the lower part, and duration of 2 3 hours
Simulation results with hydraulic model - POTOP

Simulation results for 120 mm/h uniform rainfall

Simulation results with hydraulic model - POTOP

Non-uniform precipitation (60-120mm in 2-3h)

Conclusions

The ROFFG system correctly indicated the flash flood

occurrence in the upper part of Calnau River Basin, in real
time.
The NOAH model and the POTOP model simulations are
close to the observed hydrograph at Costomiru station.
Main source of errors and main incertitude is related to the
precipitation field estimates.
Our short term priority is to improve the precipitation field
estimates in real-time, by using a more complex rain-gauge
correction algorithm and incorporating also the satellite
precipitation estimates.
Thank you for your
attention!