File Financial Modeling - Module I

Author(s) Asfi Shaheen

Tab Projected Financials
Created 2/1/09

Financial Statements

Income Statement
(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) Historical Financials
Revenue 2006 2007 2008
Landing Fees 4,188 4,603 4,990
Handling Fees 21,670 25,179 28,318
Embarkation Fees 14,910 17,003 18,663
Total Operating Revenue 40,768.6 46,784.7 51,971.1

Non Operating Revenue

Airport Development Fund 9,564 11,478 12,389
Flying Club 2,000 2,000 2,000
Rental Income 5,600 6,735 8,353
Total Revenue Rs.57,932.6 Rs.66,997.7 Rs.74,713.1

Operating Costs
Staff salaries (9,044) (9,768) (10,549)
Maintenance (8,403) (8,874) (9,282)
Marketing & Advertising (8,843) (9,506) (10,267)
Lease Expense
Other Operating Costs (1,200) (1,380) (1,587)
EBITDA 30,442 37,470 43,028

Depreciation & Amortization (21,400) (22,400) (23,352)

EBIT 9,042 15,070 19,676

Interest Expense (3,190) (3,085) (3,020)

Interest Income 939 939 939
Gain / (Loss) on Asset Sales 0 0 0
EBT 6,791 12,924 17,595

Taxes @ 35% (2,377) (4,523) (6,158)

Net Income 4,414 8,400 11,437
Net Income Margin 7.6% 12.5% 15.3%
Interest Income Rate

Balance Sheet Historical Financials

(Pak Rupees in MM, except per share amounts) 2006 2007 2008
Assets
Cash and Equivalents 10,430 14,028 19,970
Accounts Receivable 13,000 13,910 14,884
 Security Deposit
Inventory 5,000 5,400 5,500
Other Current Assets 9,105 10,016 11,017
Total Current Assets 37,535 43,353 51,370

Gross PP&E 500,000 520,000 540,800

Other Non Current Assets 25,889 26,666 27,466
Accumulated Depreciation (167,654) (190,054) (213,406)
Total Assets 395,770 399,965 406,230

Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity

Accounts Payable 2,476 2,426 2,378
Accrued Expenses and Other Current Liabilities 2,467 2,418 2,369
Total Current Liabilities 4,943 4,844 4,747

Secured Debt 24,000 22,000 20,000

Unsecured Debt 10,000 9,000 8,000
Revolving Credit Facility
Total Debt 34,000 31,000 28,000

Other Non Current Liabilities 10,123 9,921 9,722

Deferred Tax Liability
Total Liabilities 49,066 45,765 42,469

Shareholders' Equity
Authorized Capital of 200,000,000 common shares
of Rs. 1.0 each
Common stock issued at par 100,000 100,300 100,601
Common stock issued at par to Option Holders + APIC
Additional paid-in capital 234,987 235,692 236,399
Common stock issued at par to SAS
Additional paid-in capital by SAS
Treasury Stock
Accumulated earnings (deficit) 11,717 18,208 26,761
Total Shareholder's Equity 346,704 354,200 363,761

Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 395,770 399,965 406,230

Balance Sheet Check - - -

Cash Flow Statement Historical Financials

(Pak Rupees in MM, except per share amounts) 2006 2007 2008
Cash Flow from Operations
Net Income 8,400 11,437
(+) Depreciation & Amortization 22,400 23,352
(+) (Gain) / Loss on Asset Sales 0 0
(Increase)/Decrease in Accounts Receivable (910) (974)
(Increase)/Decrease in Inventory (400) (100)
(Increase)/Decrease in Other Current Assets (911) (1,002)
(Increase)/Decrease in Security Deposits
 Increase/(Decrease) in Accounts Payable (50) (49)
Increase/(Decrease) in Accrued Expenses & Other Current Liabilities (49) (48)
Increase/(Decrease) in Accrued Expenses & Other Non Current Liabilities (202) (198)
Increase/(Decrease) in Deferred Tax Liability
Total Cash Flow from Operating Activities 28,279 32,418

Cash Flow from Investing Activities

(-) Capital Expenditures on PP&E (20,000) (20,800)
(-) Capital Expenditures on Other Non Current Assets
(+) Asset Sales 0 0
(-) Acquisition of Assets / Other Securities
Total Cash Flow from Investing Activities (20,000) (20,800)

Cash Flow from Financing

(+) Issuance of Common Stock
(-) Treasury Stock Purchase
(+) Proceeds from Option Exercise
(+) Proceeds from Secured Debt
(+) Proceeds from Unsecured Debt
(+) Proceeds from / (paydown of) Revolver
(+) Proceeds from Equity Raise from SAS
(-) Dividends Paid
(-) Payment of Secured Debt (2,000) (2,000)
(-) Payment of Unsecured Debt (1,000) (1,000)
Total Cash Flow from Investing Activities (3,000) (3,000)

Change in Cash Balance 5,279 8,618

 Red Requires further attention
Blue Input cells
Green Cells linked to another sheet
Black Cells containing a calculation on the same sheet

Projected Financials
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5,417 6,032 6,384 8,667 10,535 11,364
31,593 36,166 40,442 54,267 67,735 74,848
20,815 23,837 26,342 35,857 44,889 49,653
57,826 66,035 73,168 98,791 123,159 135,865

13,855 15,822 17,532 23,671 29,510 32,554

2,487 2,840 3,146 4,248 5,296 5,843
8,574 9,791 10,849 14,648 18,261 20,145
82,742 94,488 104,695 141,359 176,227 194,407

(12,213) (13,947) (15,453) (20,865) (26,012) (28,695)

(10,131) (11,079) (9,728) (9,728) (9,728) (9,728)
(11,913) (13,605) (15,074) (20,353) (25,374) (27,991)
0 0 (2,975) (2,975) (2,975) (2,975)
(1,683) (1,898) (1,978) (2,503) (3,003) (3,263)
46,801 53,959 59,487 84,935 109,136 121,755

(25,210) (29,046) (28,381) (28,506) (28,631) (28,756)

21,591 24,913 31,106 56,429 80,505 92,999

(2,615) (3,800) (1,865) (1,440) (1,165) (890)

392 200 760 2,784 4,879 7,242
0 0 (33,329) 0 0 0
19,369 21,313 (3,328) 57,773 84,219 99,351

(6,779) (7,460) 1,165 (20,221) (29,477) (34,773)

12,590 13,854 (2,163) 37,552 54,743 64,578
15.2% 14.7% (2.1%) 26.6% 31.1% 33.2%
4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Projected Financials
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

10,000 5,377 18,994 69,598 121,975 181,046

17,410 19,104 20,305 26,253 31,278 32,905
 0 0 8,925 8,925 8,925 8,925
6,450 6,939 7,368 8,732 9,831 10,048
12,525 14,303 15,848 21,398 26,676 29,428
46,384 45,722 71,441 134,905 198,684 262,351

595,552 651,294 571,836 571,836 571,836 571,836

28,466 29,666 30,916 32,166 33,416 34,666
(238,616) (267,662) (229,171) (257,677) (286,307) (315,063)
431,786 459,020 445,021 481,230 517,628 553,789

2,963 3,341 3,727 4,651 5,530 5,989

2,952 3,329 3,713 4,634 5,510 5,967
5,915 6,670 7,440 9,285 11,041 11,956

18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000

7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000
194 10,000 0 0 0 0
25,194 32,000 19,000 16,000 13,000 10,000

12,113 13,659 15,236 19,016 22,611 24,485

5,110 12,569 12,569 23,249 25,283 24,427
48,331 64,898 54,245 67,550 71,934 70,868

100,601 100,601 100,601 100,601 100,601 100,601

0 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000
236,399 236,399 236,399 236,399 236,399 236,399
3,571 3,571 3,571 3,571 3,571 3,571
6,429 6,429 6,429 6,429 6,429 6,429
0 0 (4,680) (13,692) (26,830) (42,327)
36,455 47,122 45,457 74,372 116,524 166,249
383,455 394,122 390,777 413,680 445,694 482,921

431,786 459,020 445,021 481,230 517,628 553,789

- - - - - -

Projected Financials
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

12,590 13,854 (2,163) 37,552 54,743 64,578

25,210 29,046 28,381 28,506 28,631 28,756
0 0 33,329 0 0 0
(2,526) (1,694) (1,202) (5,947) (5,025) (1,627)
(950) (490) (429) (1,364) (1,099) (217)
(1,508) (1,778) (1,545) (5,550) (5,278) (2,752)
0 0 (8,925) 0 0 0
 585 378 386 925 879 458
583 377 384 921 876 457
2,390 1,546 1,577 3,780 3,595 1,874
5,110 7,460 0 10,680 2,034 (856)
41,484 48,699 49,792 69,503 79,355 90,672

(54,752) (55,742) (55,742) 0 0 0

(1,000) (1,200) (1,250) (1,250) (1,250) (1,250)
0 0 35000 0 0 0

(55,752) (56,942) (21,992) (1,250) (1,250) (1,250)

0 0 (4,680) (9,012) (13,138) (15,498)

0 0 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

194 9,806 (10,000) 0 0 0

10,000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(2,895.6) (3,186.4) 497.5 (8,637.1) (12,590.8) (14,853.0)
(2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)
(1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)
4,299 3,619 (14,182) (17,649) (25,728) (30,351)

(9,970) (4,623) 13,618 50,604 52,377 59,071

 2015
12,256
82,692
54,919
149,867

35,909
6,445
22,222
214,443

(31,653)
(9,728)
(30,876)
(2,975)
(3,550)
135,661

(28,881)
106,781

(615)
9,781
0
115,947

(40,582)
75,366
35.1%
4.0%

2015

244,536
34,531
 8,925
10,247
32,460
330,699

571,836
35,916
(343,944)
594,507

6,494
6,470
12,965

6,000
1,000
0
7,000

26,551
22,125
68,641

100,601
15,000
236,399
3,571
6,429
(60,414)
224,281
525,866

594,507

2015

75,366
28,881
0
(1,626)
(199)
(3,033)
0
 505
503
2,066
(2,302)
100,161

0
(1,250)
0

(1,250)

(18,087)
3,000

0
0.0
(17,334.1)
(2,000)
(1,000)
(35,421)

63,490
File Red Requires further attention
Author(s) Blue Input cells
Tab Green Cells linked to another sheet
Created Black Cells containing a calculation on the same s

Debt & Interest

Debt Obligations Face Value Term Type
Secured Debt 24,000 12 Years Fixed
Unsecured Debt 10,000 10 Years Floating
Revolver 10,000 Variable Variable

Projected
2009 2010 2011

KIBOR - Historical and Forward Curve 13.0% 12.5% 11.0%

Secured Debt - Principal Amount Outstanding 18,000 16,000 14,000
Unsecured Debt - Principal Amount Outstanding 7,000 6,000 5,000
Revolver - Principal Amount Outstanding 194 10,000 0

Secured Debt - Interest Expense 1,530 1,360 1,190

Unsecured Debt - Interest Expense 1,085 900 675
Revolver - Interest Expense 32 1,600 0
Total Interest Expense 2,647 3,860 1,865

Revolver 2009 2010 2011

Cash flow available for financing activities (14,268) (8,243) 27,800
Proceeds from / (repurchase of) equity 10,000 0 0
Treasury Stock 0 0 (4,680)
Option Proceeds 0 0 3,000
Dividends (2,895.6) (3,186.4) 497.5
(+) Beginning Cash Balance 19,970 10,000 5,377
(-) Minimum Cash Balance (10,000) (10,000) (10,000)
Cash Available for Debt Payment 2,806 (11,429) 21,994

Long term debt issuance 0 0 0

Long term debt (payments) (3,000) (3,000) (3,000)
Cash Available for Revolver (194) (14,429) 18,994

Revolving Credit Facility

Beginning Balance 0 194 10,000
Discretionary (Paydown) / Borrowings 194 9,806 (10,000)
Ending balance 194 10,000 0
calculation on the same sheet

Base Rate Spread

8.5% N/A
KIBOR 2.5%
KIBOR 3.5%

Projected
2012 2013 2014 2015

8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
0 0 0 0

1,020 850 680 510

420 315 210 105
0 0 0 0
1,440 1,165 890 615

2012 2013 2014 2015

68,253 78,105 89,422 98,911
0 0 0 0
(9,012) (13,138) (15,498) (18,087)
3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
(8,637.1) (12,590.8) (14,853.0) (17,334.1)
18,994 69,598 121,975 181,046
(10,000) (10,000) (10,000) (10,000)
62,598 114,975 174,046 237,536

0 0 0 0
(3,000) (3,000) (3,000) (3,000)
59,598 111,975 171,046 234,536

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0