28 September 2017

HEADLINES

US DAP sold $7 higher at $345 fob Tampa

US DAP costs increase $7 on higher ammonia prices

DAP barge trades at $328-340/ston fob NOLA in the US

Turkey concludes more Moroccan DAP

DAP imports January-August 2017 in Pakistan continue at twice the volume imported in the prior year period

EABC awards OCP NPS under 13 September tender in Ethiopia

OUTLOOK
Stable to firm. Global DAP supply is tight for October but it remains to be seen if buyers will now pay higher prices for November
shipments at a time when peak season demand in Asia and South America typically dwindles and as buyers in Europe and the US
have time on their sides to defer purchasing decisions.

FERTECON PRICE SERVICE

PHOSPHATE KEY PRICES

28 Sept 21 Sept 14 Sept

DAP $/t fob US Gulf 345 336-338 328-337

DAP $/t fob North Africa 350-365 335-365 335-355

DAP $/ston fob NOLA 328-340 333-340 315-325

PHOSPHATE KEY PRICES CHART

US$/t fob
600

US Gulf bulk
500
N.Africa

N.Africa TSP
400

300

FERTECON 28 September
200 2017
14 15 16 17

Fertecons phosphate prices are available to analyse and download immediately after publishing via this link.

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 28 September 2017

PHOSPHATE PRICE INDICATIONS ALL PRICES IN US$

28 September 21 September 14 September Notes

DAP
US Gulf fob bulk 345 336-338 328-337
Morocco fob bulk 350-365 335-355 335-355
Tunisia fob bulk 350-365 350-365 350-353
Jordan fob bulk 351-355 351-355 343-345
Saudi Arabia fob bulk 360-364 356-360 350-351
Black Sea fob bulk n.m. n.m. n.m.
Baltic fob bulk 320-334 320-334 320-324
Australia fob bulk 340-345 340-345 340-345
China fob cash 355-360 350-355 347-350
Benelux fca bulk duty paid/free 365-370 365-370 353-370
India cfr bulk 366-371 366-367 361-362
US domestic st NOLA 328-340 333-340 315-325
Ctrl Florida st for 355 355 345
GTSP
Bulgaria fob bulk 255* 255* 255*
Morocco fob bulk 261-265 261-265 261-265
Tunisia fob bulk 275-283* 275-283* 275-283*
Lebanon fob bulk 261-265* 261-265* 261-265*
Mexico fob 245-250 245-250 245-250
China fob bagged 260-270 260-270 245-250
MAP
Black Sea fob bulk 335-340 327-337 325-328
Baltic fob bulk 335-340 327-337 325-328
Brazil cfr bulk 355-360 350-360 345-348
PHOSPHORIC ACID
US Gulf fob (P2O5) 435-440 435-440 435-440
India cfr (P2O5) 567-572 567-572 567-572 30 days
PHOSPHATE ROCK
Casablanca fob 70% BPL 80-85 80-85 80-85
FERTECON PRICE DEFINITION
^ all business * No recent known business **price adjusted
NB: All prices refer to most recent concluded business or latest competitive offers. Prices are net of credit or other terms.
The full history of Fertecons phosphate prices is available to view and download by clicking here

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PHOSPHATE FREIGHT INDICATIONS $/T

(BULK) Route Cargo size (t) Latest rate

US Gulf-India 45-50,000 28-32

US Gulf-China 50-55,000 27-31

US Gulf-EC S America 25-30,000 20-27

Baltic-EC S America 25-30,000 22-29

North Africa-India 30-35,000 28-30

Jordan-India 40,000 14-15

Saudi Arabia-India 30,000 9-10

NB: All rates indicated are based on averages. Exact rates will depend on port loading and discharge rates

EXCHANGE RATES
EXCHANGE RATES LOCAL CURRENCY:US$

28/09/2017 21/09/2017 28/09/2016

Euro 0.85056 0.83501 0.89012

Pound Sterling 0.74577 0.73919 0.77020

Turkish Lira 3.56448 3.48456 2.97592

Rupee India 65.7383 64.3703 66.4529

Real Brazil 3.17773 3.13032 3.23823

China RMB 6.63846 6.57321 6.66853

FERTECON TENDER SERVICE

PHOSPHATE RECENT AND ACTIVE TENDERS

Country Holder Product 000 t Tender close Shipment Remarks

Bangladesh BCIC Phos acid solution 10 24/7 Offers received
Sri Lanka CIC TSP 4 31/7 Sep-Oct arr Offers received
Burkina Faso Sofitex NPKSB 145 24/8 Offers received
India GSFC DAP 35 31/8 Sep Scrapped
India RCF DAP Lite/MAP Litle 40 13/9 Awarded
Ethiopia EABC NPS 750 13/9 Sep-Jan Offers received
India GSFC Phosphate rock 25 18/9 Sep-Oct Offers received
India FACT Phosphate rock 10 21/9 Oct Offers received
Bangladesh BCIC Phosphate rock 20 25/9 Offers received
Bangladesh BCIC Phos acid solution 10 25/9 Offers received
India NFL DAP 45 28/9 Sep-Oct
Mali CMDT NPKSB/NPK 114 29/9
Nepal AIC DAP 25 25/10

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ANALYSIS
This week has seen most producers achieve higher prices for phosphates against a platform of tight global supply for October and
beyond. Buyers in Latin America have bid up US DAP prices, purchasing small lots at $345 fob, while European importers have
accepted prices of $360-365 fob for North African DAP for October loading. Chinese DAP has been purchased at up to $360 fob for
South and Southeast Asia.

While higher prices have been accepted, there are growing signs of increasing price resistance. In Europe, the falling value of the
euro against the dollar has played its part in sending buyers to the sidelines, though this has had more to do with the $30-35
increase in FSU producers asking prices and with European buyers keenly aware of the lower increases being proposed in Asia and
Latin America. In the US domestic market, it is getting late to purchase DAP in NOLA to arrive in time for the Fall season. Barge
prices have eased as a result, to $328-340/ston fob.

Looking ahead, the direction of DAP prices appears to rest with Fill demand levels in the US domestic market and Europe. The
thinner volume of identifiable export demand for November/December shipment would usually suggest a period of weaker pricing.
Shipments to India will dwindle November onwards as it gets late for product to arrive in time for the rabi season, Pakistan has
little, if any DAP left to purchase to cover its rabi requirement, while South American demand typically fades moving through Q4.

Producers hopes are riding on strong Fill demand emerging in the US domestic market and Europe for the spring season. It remains
to be seen whether there is sufficient new demand to allow DAP producers to raise prices further or whether buyers in the US and
Europe, able to defer their purchasing decisions for material that will not be used for several months, choose to do so in the hope
of securing lower prices.

MARKETS
EUROPE

BENELUX
Demand for DAP appears to have disappeared since last weeks move by FSU producers to quote higher prices of $400-405 fca. This
has left the market in a state of limbo with buyers facing yet higher euro prices as a result of the currency depreciating against the
US$. It has also left prices to mark time this week at $365-370 fca Ghent/Antwerp.

AFRICA

CAMEROON
Further to last week, it is reported that CNPC will close a tender on 13 October for 35,000 t NPKSB 22-10-15+5S+1B for Q1 2018
shipment.

ETHIOPIA
EABC has awarded OCP its 13 September tender at the prices quoted by the Moroccan producer for the following fertilizers for
delivery through end January to Djibouti/Sudan for the 2018/19 cropping season:

500,000 t +/- 20% NPSB 19-38-0+7S+0.1B

200,000 NPS 19-38-0+7S
50,000 t NPSZB 18-36-0+8S+2.2ZN+0.1B

OCPs offers for the 500,000 t +/- 20% NPSB 19-38-0+7S+0.1B were as follows:

Lot number via Djibouti $/t cfr bagged liner out on basis of following discharge rate
Supplier/Origin 000 t unless otherwise unless otherwise indicated as /t cfr bagged liner out
indicated
2,000 t/day 3,000 t/day 4,000 t/day
OCP/Morocco 9 x 50,000 Lots 1-6 and lots 8-10 327.40 326.40 325.40
50,000 Lot 7 via Port Sudan /t 275.56 274.73 273.90

OCPs offers for the 200,000 NPS 19-38-0+7S were as follows:

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$/t cfr bagged liner out on basis of following discharge

Supplier/Origin 000 t Lot number via Djibouti
rate
2,000 t/day 3,000 t/day 4,000 t/day
OCP/Morocco 4 x 50,000 Lots 1-4 314.50 313.50 312.50

OCPs offers for the 50,000 t NPSZnB 18-36-0+8S+2.2ZN+0.1B were as follows:

$/t cfr bagged liner out on basis of following discharge

Supplier/Origin 000 t Lot number via Djibouti
rate
2,000 t/day 3,000 t/day 4,000 t/day
OCP/Morocco 50,000 Lot 1 382.60 381.60 380.60

Delivery was requested as follows:

500,000 t +/- 20% NPSB 19-38-0+7S+0.1B in 10 x 50,000 t lots to Djibouti:

Lot Arrival by
Lot 1 28 September
Lot 2 28 September
Lot 3 5 November
Lot 4 5 November
Lot 5 20 November
Lot 6 20 November
Lot 7 5 December
Lot 8 5 December
Lot 9 20 December
Lot 10 10 January

200,000 t +/- 20% NPSB 19-38-0+7S+0.1B in 4 x 50,000 t lots to Djibouti:

Lot Arrival by
Lot 1 28 September
Lot 2 13 October
Lot 3 20 December
Lot 4 30 January

50,000 t NPSZB 18-36-0+8S+0.1 in one 50,000 t lot to Djibouti by 13 October

IVORY COAST
It is reported that Intercoton has issued a tender, closing on 10 October, for 80,000 t NPKSB 15-15-15-+6S+1B for 2018 shipment.

MOZAMBIQUE
OCP has now concluded a total of 60,000 t NPK 10-20-10 at $285 cfr for October shipment from Morocco.

NIGERIA
OCP has sold around 40,000 t NPK 15-15-15 at $250-255 cfr for October shipment from Morocco.

MIDDLE EAST

TURKEY
GubreTas is reported to have booked 40,000 t DAP from OCP for October shipment from Morocco.

The 16,860 dwt Wafaa M. was due to arrive at Iskenderun yesterday, 27 September, carrying 16,300 t Jordanian DAP to cover the
earlier reported purchase by a group of Mersin buyers of NJFC product from Vertiqal at $370 cfr including 270 days credit for
September shipment.

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The 5,943 dwt Ras Sedr arrived at Iskenderun on 26 September carrying 5,400 t Jordanian DAP and the 6,443 dwt Haci Hilmi II was
due to arrive at the port today, 28 September, carrying 6,200 t DAP, both reportedly covering the 2 x 6,000 t NJFC DAP rumoured
last week to have been bought by Igsas from Daewoo also at $370 cfr including 270 days credit for September shipment.

DAP business reported so far for 2017 arrival is as follows:

TURKEY: DAP PURCHASES 2017 (000 t)

Buyer Supplier DAP Arrival
Total Q1 161.0
TBC OCP/Morocco 22.0 Apr
TBC Russia 4.0 Apr
Alp Ates JPMC/Jordan 1.0 Apr
Igsas Ameropa/Jordan 6.5 May
Southern distributor GCT/Tunisia 6.0 May
Igsas GCT/Tunisia 6.0 May
Igsas GCT/Tunisia 5.0 May
Igsas GCT/Tunisia 5.0 May
Igsas GCT/Tunisia 5.0 May
Gubretas OCP/Morocco 43.5 May
Gubretas GCT/Tunisia 65.0 Jun-Aug
Igsas GCT/Tunisia 15.0 June/July
Gubretas GCT/Tunisia 35.0 Aug-Oct
Gubretas OCP/Morocco 20.0 Jul/Aug
Ost Olgun JPMC/Jordan 8.0 Aug
Igsas GCT/Tunisia 16.0 Aug/Sep
Ost Olgun GCT/Tunisia 4.0 Aug/Sep
Alp Ates Ameropa/JPMC 25.0 Aug/Sep
Southern distributor Ameropa/JPMC 7.0 Aug/Sep
TBC EuroChem/Lithuania 30.0 Sep
Gemlik Gubre EuroChem/Lithuania 30.0 Sep
Mersin buyers Vertiqal/Jordan 16.5 Sep
Igsas Daewoo 11.5 Sep
Igsas GCT/Tunisia 15.0 Sep/Oct
Gubretas OCP/Morocco 40.0 Oct/Nov
Total 603.0

SOUTHERN ASIA

BANGLADESH
The 38,800 dwt Trammo Independent is due to arrive with 36,000 t Lebanese TSP ex-Selaata at Chittagong tomorrow, 27
September. The tonnes are to cover awards at $333.50 cfr under the Ministry of Fertilizers 31 May tender for 275,000 t for import
by the private sector for shipment by 15 October. LCC shipped the cargo from Lebanon on 9 September.

INDIA
A major buyer is reported to have concluded 50,000 t DAP with Maaden in the low $370s cfr for October shipment from Saudi
Arabia. With no new confirmed Chinese DAP business reported this week, prices at the low end of the range have been left to mark
time at $366-367 cfr as the further weakness in the Rupee against the US$ puts pressure on imported prices.

NFL extended to 28 September the closing date for its tender for 45,000 t DAP +/-10% with latest shipment to the east coast
(Kakinada/Vizag/Dhamra) also pushed back to 25 October.

NFL is reported to have received one offer only from Amber/Quantum at $382 cfr or above under its 28 September tender for
45,000 t DAP +/-10% with latest shipment to the east coast (Kakinada/Vizag/Dhamra) by 25 October.

IPL was due to receive the Sophia Z. with 55,000 t Saudi Arabian DAP at Mundra today, 29 September, likely under its long term
contract with Maaden.

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Kribhco is due to receive the 48,913 Nepenthe with around 40,000 t Saudi Arabian DAP at Pipavav 4-5 October under its earlier
purchase from Maaden under long term contract.

RCF is reported to have awarded Aries 2 x 20,000 t granular MAP 10-50-0 at $339 cfr for October shipment and $346 cfr for
November shipment, both to MBPT, under its 13 September tender.

On 25 September DAP stocks at Indian ports were estimated as follows (567,000 t on 18 September and 492,000 t on 29 August):

Port Tonnes
Kandla 175,500
Mundra 122,700
Pipavav 90,000
Vizag 76,535
Kakinada 29,000
Krishnapatnam 2,500
Gangavaram 1,000
Total 497,235

DAP cargoes booked to date include the following:

Buyer Supplier/Origin 000 t Vessel Arrival Port

April 61.5
May 228.1
June 762.0
July 615.4
August 532.5
RCF Amber/China 35.0 Alcyone 2 September Mundra
Mosaic Mosaic/US 50.5 Thor Integrity 3 September Mundra
NFL Ameropa/China 45.0 Arnica 6 September Kakinada
Chambal YUC/China 50.0 Truong Minh Fortune 8 September Kandla
Kribhco Maaden/Saudi Arabia 55.0 Eraclea 8 September Kandla
IPL Maaden/Saudi Arabia 55.0 Jag Rishi 9 September Pipavav
IPL Fertrade/China 54.5 Shao Shan 6 9 September Visakhapatnam
Chambal YUC/China 38.0 Waimea 18 September Vizag
TCL Sabic/Saudi Arabia 30.0 CH Doris 18 September Dharma
Chambal Aries/China 42.0 Hinode Maru 20 September Kandla
Mosaic Mosaic/US 50.0 Shail al Ruwais 21 September Mundra
NFL Midgulf/China 40.5 HTC Charlie 23 September Pipavav
IPL Maaden/Saudi Arabia 55.0 Sophia Z. 24 September Mundra
NFL Ameropa/China 45.0 Calix 25 September Vizag
Chambal Sabic/Saudi Arabia 30.0 Oriental Harmony September West coast
Zuari Aries/China 45.0 TBN September -
September To date 720.5
Kribhco Maaden/Saudi Arabia 40.0 Nepenthe 4 October Pipavav
TBC Maaden/Saudi Arabia 40.0 TBN September -
Mosaic Mosaic/US 35.0 Falcon Trident October -
Chambal Mosaic/US 25.0 Ilia October -
Mosaic Mosaic/US 25.0 Ilia October -
IPL JPMC/Jordan 25.0 Ince Beylerbeyi October -

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NFL Ameropa/China 45.0 AS Valentia October

IPL Midgulf/Morocco 50.0 TBN October -
Chambal YUC/China 50.0 TBN October -
TBC Maaden/Saudi Arabia 50.0 TBN October -
TBC Maaden/Saudi Arabia 60.0 TBN October -
Chambal Sabic/Saudi Arabia 30.0 TBN October -
October To date 485.0
Total Estimate to date 3,405.0

PAKISTAN
Offers for DAP are reported to have increased to the $370s cfr although no new business has been reported.

Further to last week, the 37,039 dwt Lady Amna arrived in China on 23 September to load 30,000 t Sanning DAP, covering a mid-
August purchase by Agven from Sanning that has come to light.

The latest NFDC data show DAP production was 74,000 t in August,6% above July and 3% higher than August 2016. This brought
calendar y-t-d output to 525,000 t, 3% higher than the 509,000 t manufactured January-August 2016.

DAP imports were 131,000 t in August, bringing January-August 2017 imports to 848,000 t, double the 420,000 t imported during
the same period last year.

Sales of DAP to dealers in were 83,000 t in August, 71% lower than July and down 39% on August 2016. This brought the January-
August figure to 956,000 t, up 15% on the first eight months of 2016.

DAP business reported so far for 2017 arrival is as follows:

Buyer Supplier/Origin 000 t Vessel Arrival

Total Jan-June 502.5
Fauji Quantum/Yihua, China 47.0 Spring Oasis 3 July
Engro Koch/Yihua, China 45.0 Vinalines Sunrise 6 July
Various Ameropa/Xianfeng, China 40.0 Teal Bulker 12 July
Pak Arab Yihua/China 45.0 Michalakis 14 July
Chawla/United Agro Quantum/Dayukou, China 31.5 African Toucan 16 July
United Agro Quantum/Australia 30.0 Loch Maree 29 July
Fauji Quantum/Yihua, China 49.0 Santa Anna 15 August
Fauji Quantum/Australia 34.0 Balaban 4 September
Agven/Pacific Dongsheng/China 30.0 Darya Ganga 6 September
United Agro Quantum, Dayukou 45.0 Bulk Paraguay 15 September
Engro Maaden/Saudi Arabia 50.0 Eracle 23 September
Fauji Quantum/Australia 51.0 Cyclades 27 September
Chawla Quantum/Australia 49.0 Triton Seahawk October
Engro Quantum/China 40.0 AM Ocean Silver October
Fauji Quantum/China 45.0 TBN October
Agven/Pacific Kailin/China 40.0 New Hunter October
Agven Kailin/China 30.0 Lady Amna October
Engro Merrycorn/Hubei Sanning 40.0 TBN October
Engro Sabic/Saudi Arabia 50.0 TBN October
Engro Maaden/Saudi Arabia 25.0 TBN Oct-Nov
Engro Maaden/Saudi Arabia 25.0 TBN Oct-Nov
Pak Arab Yihua/China 45.0 TBN Oct-Nov
Engro Sabic/Saudi Arabia 25.0 TBN November

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Engro Maaden/Saudi Arabia 25.0 TBN Nov-Dec

Total to date 1,439.0

EASTERN ASIA

CHINA
August imports of NPK were 76,700 t, including 44,700 t from Norway.

(Source: GTT/China Customs)

SOUTHEAST ASIA

THAILAND
Imports of DAP in August were just below 44,500 t, nearly all shown coming from China. NPK imports in August were 11,500 t
including 5,200 t from Finland.

VIETNAM
The longstanding rumour of a cargo of Mexican DAP coming to Vietnam has at last firmed up with Ameropa selling around 30,000 t
Mexican DAP to Apromaco. Mexican origin is not liable to the recently announced defence tax so Apromaco will just pay the
standard 6% import duty. Apromaco has been indicating Mexican DAP to other importers at around $373 cfr bulk.

There is plenty of DAP available in Vietnam following two months of high imports and offtake is still slow but domestic prices have
firmed following urea prices which are sharply up over the past two weeks. Prices are being quoted $5-10 higher than last week but
it is not yet clear that much volume is trading at these prices.

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES
Low demand for DAP barges at NOLA has witnessed prices retreat, falling during the week from $335-340/ston fob NOLA to $330-
332 mid-week and down to $328, despite the well-publicised loss of product at Mosaics central Florida phosphate facilities caused
by Hurricane Irma earlier this month. Mosaic has sold 1 DAP barge at $340/ston fob NOLA for prompt shipment.

Mosaics offer for DAP in the Central Florida truck market remains at $355/ston with GMAP still at $365.

Terminals prices slipped slightly lower this week, reflecting losses in the NOLA barge market. Truck DAP prices the River vary by
location but are generally around $355-365/ston fob. MAP is maintaining a $5-10 premium to DAP.

There was little in the way of fresh demand this week but buyers are expected to return to the market later in the Fall to cover
remaining Fall needs. For now, buyers are comfortable with current inventories and feel there is potential for lower prices if they
continue to push back purchases.

US DAP/MAP/TSP Arrivals 2016/2017

Supplier/Origin DAP MAP TSP NP+S+Z Vessel Arrival
TBC/Russia - 20 - - Novaya Zemlya 3 July
CHS/Morocco 22 33 - - HTC Delta 7 July
Gavilon/Morocco 25 25 - - Tschaikowsky 12 July
Koch/Morocco 22 22 - 11 PRT Hope 26 July
Helm/Morocco - - 30 - Western Maple 27 July
Gavilon/Morocco 22 22 - 11 Kyra Panaghia 5 Aug
Koch/Morocco 21 22 - 10 New Venture 11 Aug
Distributor/Morocco 25 30 - - Paqueta Island 25 Aug
Two Rivers/Nitron, Mexico - 7 - - Aurora Bulker 27 Aug
CHS, Growmark Israel - - 15 - Ocean Galaxy 27 Aug
ADM, Ben Trei/PhosAgro, Russia 22 28 - 5 Nord Fortune 2 Sep
Distributor/Morocco 22 33 - - Andros Island 3 Sep
Gavilon/Morocco 25 19 - 11 Puffin Bulker 4 Sep

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Koch/Morocco 27 19 - 10 Lowlands Breeze Sep

ADM, Ben Trei/PhosAgro, Russia 27 28 - - Star of Sawara 20 Sep
Gavilon/Morocco 22 22 - 11 Qing Quan Shan 21 Sep
Helm/Morocco - - 31 - Lone Star 28 Sep
Israel - - 15 - Roztocze 28 Sep
Distributor/Russia 10 25 - - E.R. Bordeaux 1 Oct
Ben Trei/EuroChem, Russia - 15 - - Pola Palekh Oct
Gavilon/Morocco 22 22 - 11 Nicolaos A Oct
Distributor/Morocco 22 22 - 11 Cramond Island Oct
Distributor/Morocco 22 22 - 11 SBI Subaru Oct
Distributor/Morocco 22 22 - 11 TBN Nov
Total July-October 2017 380 458 91 113

LATIN AMERICA

ARGENTINA
Offers for DAP and MAP have been increased to $365-370 cfr although no new business has been reported this week.

Bunge/ACA are last week reported to have purchased about 15,000 t MAP/DAP up to the mid $360s cfr for shipment from
Morocco.

BRAZIL
Prices for MAP are assessed higher at $355-360 cfr this week although OCP is reported to have concluded a total of about 150,000 t
MAP, DAP and 12-46-0 at unconfirmed prices of $362-365 cfr for the MAP/DAP and about $354-360 cfr for the 12-46-0 for October
shipment from Morocco.

EuroChem has returned to the market this week, offering MAP at $375 cfr for October shipment.

OCP is reported to have sold 25,000 t Moroccan TSP at about $275 cfr for October loading.

Brazil Phosphate Fertilizer Arrivals

Charterer/Receiver Product Origin 000 t Arrived/ETA Vessel
Paranagua
Mosaic MAP/NP US 20.7 1 Sept Nimertis
Mosaic MAP/NP US 12.6 7 Sept Nord Auckland
ICL MAP/TSP Israel 13.9 21 Sep Tern
Nitron MAP Lazaro Cardenas/Mexico 25 28 Sept Interlink Nobility
Ameropa 11-44 China 26.5 2 Oct Leto
Vila do Conde
Tocantins 11-44 Ameropa, China 15.0 5 Sep Ingrid Oldendorff
Mosaic Ferts US 17.0 11 Sep Favorita
Yara Ferts Morocco 5.5 12 Sep Port Philip Bay
Tocantins 11-44 Nitron, China 7.1 15 Sep Ellenita
Itacoatiara
Amaggi GSSP Israel 10.2 3 Oct Mazury
Amaggi PK 27-5 Israel 7.0 3 Oct Mazury
Itaqui
Nitron 11-44 China 32.5 10 Sep Elenita
Tocantins SSP Nitron, Egypt 25.7 11 Sep Montrose
Risa SSP Ameropa, Egypt 10.0 13 Sep Berge Bandai
Fertipar AP Morocco 7.0 5 Oct CS Jaden
Santos
Adufertil 11-44 Ameropa, China 11.0 5 Sep Leto
Adufertil 10-50 Ameropa, China 11.0 5 Sep Leto
TBC 11-44/10-50 Ameropa, China 28.0 5 Sep Leto

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Mosaic MAP/NP US 26.3 21 Sep Interlink Fortuity

Porto Alegre
Piratini TSP Israel 6.0 19 Sep Foxtrot
Unifertil SSP Israel 4.0 19 Sep Foxtrot
Unifertil MAP US 8.0 22 Sep San Felice
Unifertil DAP US 2.0 22 Sep San Felice
Heringer SSP Ameropa, Egypt 10.0 23 Sep Berge Bandai
Yara MAP Maaden, Saudi Arabia 11.0 27 Sep Common Horizon
Rio Grande
Piratini TSP Israel 6.0 7 Sep Foxtrot
Mosaic TSP Israel 3.0 7 Sep Foxtrot
Heringer TSP Israel 0.6 7 Sep Foxtrot
Mosaic SSP Israel 7.0 7 Sep Foxtrot
Multifertil SSP Israel 1.0 7 Sep Foxtrot
Various TSP China 21.5 9 Sept Tern
Mosaic MAP US 6.6 11 Sep Nord Auckland
Mosaic NP US 14.4 11 Sep Nord Auckland
Mosaic/Timac/Unifertil MAP US 14.0 13 Sept San Felice
Cox./Jos./Multifertil+ MAP+NP TGO/China 11.0+21.0 14 Sept Diva Eva
CHS/Cox./Cibra/Jos. MAP+NP 12-46 OCP/Morocco 14.0 15 Sept Isadora
Yara MAP Maaden, Saudi Arabia 22.0 18 Sept Glovis Mermaid
Maaden DAP Saudi Arabia 11.0 18 Sept Glovis Mermaid
TBC MAP OCP/Morocco 24.0 9 Oct Admiralty Spirit
TBC DAP OCP/Morocco 11.0 9 Oct Admiralty Spirit
TBC TSP OCP/Morocco 11.5 9 Oct Admiralty Spirit
Yara MAP OCP/Morocco 18.0 10 Oct Halki

ECUADOR
Agripac is reported to have bought 6-9,000 t DAP from PhosAgro for shipment in containers from Russia.

SUPPLIERS
EUROPE

LITHUANIA
DAP exports were 69,000 t in July, bringing y-t-d exports to 463,000 t, 13% below January-July 2016. The main destinations were
(000 t) Germany 67 (down 33%), France 60 (down 14%), UK 50 (up 50%), Belgium 48 (up 28%), Ireland 47 (up 7%), Romania 45 (up
165%), Argentina 31 (up 256%).

(Source: GTT/Eurostat)

EuroChems DAP commitments include the following:

September
30,000 t DAP for Turkey for Gemlik Gubre at $333-335 fob

30-40,000 t DAP for Europe at $330-335 fob

October

35-40,000 t DAP for Europe in the mid $330s fob

EURASIA

RUSSIA
EuroChem is reported to have sold 15-20,000 t MAP reflecting $335 to 340 fob Baltic depending on the volume that eventually
loads for end October shipment to Latin America.

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EuroChems MAP commitments:

September
20,000 t MAP ex-Kingisepp to Brazil

15,000 t MAP ex-Kingisepp for US on the 37,648 dwt Pola Palekh that sailed from Sillamae on 12 September in combination
with feed phosphate and AN

10-15,000 t MAP ex-Kingisepp for US on the 56,000 dwt E.R. Bordeaux that sailed from Murmansk on 12 September in
combination with 20,000 t PhosAgro MAP/DAP and 10-12,000 t prilled urea

10-15,000 t MAP ex-Kingisepp for East Europe, Belarus, Ukraine and the domestic market

7,000 t MAP ex-Belorechensk to Italy

33,000 t MAP ex-Belorechensk to domestic and regional markets

October
20,000 t MAP ex-Kingisepp to Brazil

PhosAgros DAP/MAP/NP/NPK commitments:

September
55,000 t MAP/DAP for the US on the 76,553 dwt Star of Sawara from Ust Luga with 13,000 t prilled urea

20,000 t MAP/DAP for the US on the 56,000 dwt E.R. Bordeaux that sailed from Murmansk on 12 September in combination
with 10-15,000 t EuroChem MAP and 10-12,000 t prilled urea

10-15,000 t DAP and 5,000 t MAP for Italy

6,000 t DAP for Central America for Incofe

240,000 t NPKs/MAP for domestic and regional markets

October
190,000 t NPKs/MAP for domestic and regional markets

Prices for NPK 16-16-16 are reported to be stable in the range $250-265 fob Baltic.

AFRICA

MOROCCO
OCP is reported to have sold a total of about 120,000 t DAP/MAP to Europe at higher prices of about $360 fob for October
shipment to the east of the continent and up to $365 fob for west Europe.

The producer has also booked 40,000 t DAP with GubreTas for October loading for Turkey.

OCP is reported to have concluded a total of about 150,000 t MAP, DAP and 12-46-0 netting the low $350s fob for the MAP/DAP
and the mid/high $340s fob for the 12-46-0 for October loading for Brazil, again reflecting higher pricing over September
shipments. A further 40,000 t DAP/MAP are scheduled to load for Argentina in October, booked earlier by Indagro as previously
reported.

A further 65-70,000 t DAP have been allocated for October loading for the domestic market.

On NPS, OCP has been awarded 750,000 t for October-January shipment under EABCs 13 September tender in Ethiopia at the
following fob levels:

NPSB 19-38-0+7S+0.1B $278.40 fob

NPS 19-38-0+7S $265.50 fob

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 28 September 2017

NPSZnB 18-36-0+8S+2.2ZN+0.1B $333.60 fob

At least one lot of 50,000 t, if not two, are scheduled to load next month for Ethiopia

On NPKs, the producer has now sold a total of 60,000 t 10-20-10 for October loading for Mozambique plus 40,000 t 15-15-15 for
October shipment to Nigeria at steady returns in the $230s fob for the latter. It also has 40,000 t to load for Guinea under an MOU
signed on 23 February by OCP and the government of Guinea as earlier identified in out 2 March report.

Production is running at a rate of 600-630,000 t/m DAP/MAP/NP/NPK in September but is due to rise to 710-730,000 t next month.

OCPs DAP/MAP/NP/NPK commitments are reported (000 t) as follows:

OCP/Morocco Sept Oct

Est. Production 600-630 710-730
Europe 120 120
Turkey 30 40
Ethiopia - 50
Guinea - 40
Mozambique 25 60
Nigeria 50 40
Bangladesh 30 -
India - 50
United States 165 55
Argentina 70 40
Brazil 170 150
Venezuela 30 -
Domestic 60-65 60
Total 750-755 710

OCP is also comfortable on TSP for October with 15,000 t sold to Europe in the mid/high $260s fob, 25,000 t to Brazil in the low
$260s fob and 2 x 30,000 t to Bangladesh, priced under formula.

TUNISIA
GCT is discussing with its traditional customers DAP sales for October shipment to Europe although prices have yet to be put on the
table.

GCTs DAP commitments are reported (000 t) as follows:

GCT/Tunisia Sept
Est. Production 65
France 10
Italy 30
Spain 10
Turkey 15
Total 65

MIDDLE EAST

JORDAN
JPMC is reported to have lifted its offers for DAP to the mid/high $360s fob for October shipments.

DAP production at JPMCs Aqaba plant remains curtailed at 50%, around 30,000 t/m.

JPMCs DAP commitments are reported (000 t) as follows:

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JPMC/Jordan September
Est. Production 30
Turkey -
India 25
Total 25

SAUDI ARABIA
Maaden is reported to have concluded a price netting the mid $360s fob for another 50,000 t DAP for October shipment to India
and to have sold 20,000 t DAP at about $360 fob for October loading for East Africa.

DAP/MAP commitments are reported as follows (000 t):

MPC/Saudi Arabia Sept Oct

Est. Production 300 335
East Africa Maaden - 40
East Africa Sabic 35 -
Bangladesh Maaden 25 -
India Maaden 185 110
India Sabic 60 30
Pakistan Maaden 50 75
Pakistan Sabic - 50
Southeast Asia Maaden - 20
Far East Sabic - -
Brazil/South America Maaden 40 40
Sabic - 25
Total 395 390

EASTERN ASIA

CHINA
DAP prices are assessed higher this week at $350-360 fob. Producers are offering largely at $360 fob and above.

The 37,039 dwt Lady Amna arrived in Zhanjiang on 23 September to load 30,000 t Sanning DAP for Pakistan, covering a mid-August
sale by Merrycorn to Agven that has come to light.

DAP stocks at the main ports are estimated higher this week, as follows:

Port 26 Sep 19 Sep 12 Sep 5 Sep

Zhanjiang 170 170 180 180
Fangcheng 40 60 40 40
Beihai 43 24 40 36
Nanjing 20 20 20 40
Zhenjiang 20 20 20 20
Others 98 54 54 80
Total 391 348 354 396

Exports of all types of compound fertilizer rose again in August to reach 1.58 million t, which includes exports of 889,000t DAP,
487,000 t MAP, 122,00 t NPs and 28400 t NPKs. In addition, there were exports of 110,100 t TSP.

DAP exports were 889,000 t in August, 2% below August 2016, bringing y-t-d exports to 3.98 million t, 11% above January-August
2016. The main destinations were (000 t) India 1,236 (down 22%), Pakistan 653 (up 596%), Vietnam 535 (up 14%), Thailand 358 (up
9%), Indonesia 195 (up 19%), Japan 131 (down 0.5%), New Zealand 128 (up 47%), Philippines 91 (up 1%), Peru 67 (up 123%),
Australia 63 (down 1%), US 58 (up 159%), Argentina 57 (up 55%), South Korea 54 (up 96%) and Guatemala 50 (up 45%).

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 28 September 2017

August saw 355,000 t exported to India, 144,000 t to Pakistan, 97,000 t to Vietnam, 70,000 t to New Zealand, 46,000 t to
Bangladesh, 19,000 t to Indonesia, 14,000 t to Japan, and 10,000 t each to Australia and Argentina.

Exports of MAP were 487,000 t in August, 114% above August 2016, bringing y-t-d exports to 2.131 million t, 76% higher than
January-August 2016. The main destinations were (000 t) Brazil 865 (up 149%), Australia 362 (up 17%), Argentina 205 (up 102%),
Vietnam 93 (up 45%), India 85 (down 38%), Chile 66 (up 129%), Malaysia 58 (up 74%), Thailand 53 (up 251%), Turkey 28 (up 253%),
US 28 (up 3%) and Taiwan 27 (up 44%).

August saw 256,000 t shipped to Brazil, 61,000 t to Argentina, 28,000 t to Vietnam, 24,000 t to India, 18,000 t to Uruguay, 12,000 t
to Chile, 11,000 t to Mozambique, and 10,000 t to Turkey.

NP exports (excluding NP 11-44-0) were 122,000 t in August, up 8% on August 2016, bringing January-August exports to 692,000 t,
70% above January-August 2016. The main destinations were (000 t) Thailand 107 (up 102%), Guatemala 105 (up 43%), Philippines
103 (down 17%), Myanmar 67 (up 79%), Australia 48 (up 340%), India 39 (up 6%), Mozambique 39 (nil January-August 2016),
Argentina 33 (nil January-August 2016), Nigeria 28 (nil January-August 2016), and Brazil 28 (nil January-August 2016).

August saw 38,000 t exported to India, 28,000 t to Mozambique, 10,000 t to Argentina, 7,000 t to each Thailand and Uruguay and
6,000 t each to Philippines, Myanmar, Guatemala and Brazil.

Declared NPK exports were much higher than usual thanks to 28,300 t to Cuba, but these figures understate real export volumes as
a significant volume is shipped out in bags of less than 10 kg, thus qualifying for customs code 310590 and thus escaping export tax.

TSP exports include 31,400 t to Indonesia, 29,500 t to Brazil and 28,600 t shown going to the UAE, and assumed to be destined for
Iran.

(Source: GTT/China Customs)

OCEANIA

AUSTRALIA
Attention is being drawn to Glencores copper operations at Townsville, Queensland and the need to agree a new long term gas
contract for 2018 by the end of the year against a backdrop of a crippling shortage in domestic gas supplies across the country. Any
curtailment or even closure of the copper refinery would have a direct impact on the future of the Mount Isa copper smelter that in
turn supplies sulphuric acid to IPLs Phosphate Hill facility.

IPLs DAP commitments are reported (000 t) as follows:

IPL/Australia September
Pakistan DAP 100
Vietnam DAP -
Mexico MAP -
Total 100

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES
Mosaic has sold 28,000 t DAP, GMAP and MicroEssentials at $345 fob Tampa for the DAP for October shipment to Latin America.

Mosaic and Yara have settled the contract price for October deliveries of ammonia into Tampa at $245 cfr, a $30 increase from the
September price of $215 cfr and increasing the cost of producing one tonne of DAP by $6.90. We estimate that average production
costs for integrated DAP producers are in the high $270s fob.

Export commitments are reported to include:

September

50,000 t DAP to India including 25,000 t to Chambal in the upper $320s fob on the 80,526 dwt Ilia that arrived at Tampa on 13
September

40,000 t ammonium phosphates to west coast Australia to CSBP

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 28 September 2017

35,000 t ammonium phosphates to west coast to CSBP on the 38,330 dwt Ernst Oldendorff that sailed from Tampa on 2
September

25,000 t MAP to Eastern Canada at $332 fob

20,000 t DAP to Latin America at $337 fob

11,000 t DAP to Latin America at $337 fob

6,000 t DAP/MAP to Latin America at $337 fob

PHOSPHORIC ACID
SOUTHERN ASIA

BANGLADESH
BCIC opened price offers under its 25 September tender for 10,000 t +/- 10% phosphoric acid solution (52-54% P2O5) for delivery to
the TSP jetty at Chittagong and for shipment within 30 days of receipt of L/C, as follows:

000 t $/t P2O5 cfrlo

Supplier $/t cfrlo
solution equivalent
Sun International 10 310.45 574.91
Aries Fertilizer 10 310.91 575.76
Desh Trading 10 328.90 609.07

Offers were to be submitted with liner terms.

INDIA
Phosphoric acid vessels identified for September-early October arrival:

Buyer/Port Supplier/Origin 000 t solution Vessel Arrival

Total April 415.1
Total May 323.8
Total June 404.7
Total July 399.2
Total August to date 325.6
Iffco/Kandla Indorama/Senegal 30.0 Stolt Vinland 1 September
PPL/Paradeep OCP/Morocco 11.5 Argent Hibiscus 1 September
TCL/Hadia OCP/Morocco 7.4 Argent Hibiscus 2 September
Iffco/Kandla Jordan 28.8 Stolt Vestland 2 September
Iffco/Kandla Jordan 12.0 Stolt Sea 5 September
CIL/Kakinada PotashCorp/US 31.4 Bow Kiso 8 September
FACT/Cochin OCP/Morocco 8.7 Ace Diligence 10 September
DFCL/JNPT OCP/Morocco 9.8 Lincoln Park 11 September
ZIL/Goa OCP/Morocco 10.0 Chemroad Fuji 12 September
GSFC/Sikka Vietnam 9.5 Union Fortune 13 September
FACT/Cochin OCP/Morocco 8.7 Lincoln Park 15 September
MCFL/Mangalore OCP/Morocco 8.5 Chemroad Fuji 15 September
IFFCO/Kandla Jordan 29.9 Bochem Mumbai 16 September
IFFCO/Kandla Sinchem/Senegal 22.1 Stolt Sycamore 17 September
CIL/Kakinada - 19.7 MTM Tokyo 17 September
ZIL/Goa OCP/Morocco 10.0 Spring Ploug 18 September
MCFL/Mangalore Vietnam 8.3 BW Cobalt 18 September
ZIL/Goa OCP/Morocco 9.0 Better Seapark 21 September

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 28 September 2017

IFFCO/Kandla Jordan 29.7 Bochem Ghent 22 September

FACT/Cochin OCP/Morocco 9.0 Better Seapark 23 September
TCL/Hadia OCP/Morocco 12.5 Chemroad Fuji 24 September
GSFC/Sikka IJC/Jordan 19.6 Eva Hongkong 24 September
TCL/Hadia OCP/Morocco 9.1 Spring Ploeg 25 September
Deepak/JNPT OCP/Morocco 10.0 CTC Cobalt 28 September
Iffco/Kandla IJC/Jordan 29.4 Stolt Vestland 28 September
Total September to date 394.6
ZIL/Goa OCP/Morocco 10.2 Chemroad Wing 1 October
CIL/Kakinada Potashcorp/US 24.2 Bow Hector 3 October
FACT/Cochin OCP/Morocco 9.0 Hyde Park 10 October
Total October to date 43.4

PHOSPHATE ROCK

SOUTHERN ASIA

BANGLADESH
Offers against BCICs tender of 25 September for 20,000 t +/-10% phosphate rock, 72% BPL minimum, for delivery to the TSP jetty
at Chittagong and for shipment within 30 days of receipt of L/C were as follows:

Supplier Origin 000 t $ cfr

Desh Trading OCP/Morocco 20 124.37
Wilson International JPMC/Jordan 20 129.73

INDIA
Phosphate rock vessels identified for September arrival:

Buyer/Port Supplier/Origin Tonnes Vessel Arrival

Total April 841,588
Total May 705,253
Total June 665,997
Total July 413,394
Total August 564,243
CL/Haldia Egypt 16,300 Rising Falcon 2 September
Haldia Egypt 19,360 Ken Orchid 7 September
TCL/Haldia Egypt 14,350 Aboudi VI 7 September
CIL/Chennai - 33,362 Aquitania 8 September
CIL/Vizag OCP/Morocco 50,839 Lietta 14 September
IFFCO JPMC/Jordan 59,600 Clipper Kythira 15 September
Greenstar/Tuticorin JPMC/Jordan 55,900 Bravo V 17 September
CIL/Vizag Togo 53,650 Honey Badger 18 September
IFFCO/Paradeep JPMC/Jordan 62,200 Falcon Triumph 21 September
PPL/Paradeep - 50,251 SFL Yukon 21 September
IFFCO/Paradeep Peru 66,000 Plainpalais 26 September
IFFCO/Paradeep Peru 66,000 Crystalia 26 September
Total September to date 547,812
Greenstar/Tuticorin JPMC/Jordan 55,000 Hony Future 4 October
Greenstar/Tuticorin JPMC/Jordan 52,000 Nord Chesapeake 4 October

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 28 September 2017

IFFCO/Paradeep - 52,500 Solar King 7 October

Total October to date 159,500

AGRICULTURE
WEEKLY CBOT CROP PRICES (/BU)

1,400 Rough Rice Wheat Corn Soybean

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200
Apr 15

Jun 15

Aug 15

Oct 15
Nov 15

Apr 16

Jun 16

Aug 16

Oct 16
Nov 16

Apr 17

Jun 17

Aug 17
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15

May 15

Jul 15

Sep 15

Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16

May 16

Jul 16

Sep 16

Dec 16
Jan 17
Feb 17
Mar 17

May 17

Jul 17

Sep 17
CROP FUTURES

CME CROP FUTURES (/BU)

Q4 Weekly Q1 Q2 September Annual Change

Product
2017 Change 2018 2018 2016 Q4 17/Q4 16 Q4 17/ 14
Corn 354.0 +4.0 366.6 375.6 329.2 +6% -19%
Wheat 459.0 +11.0 477.0 490.2 421.2 +6% -48%
Soybean 965.4 -4.6 976.2 985.4 945.40 +3% -28%
Rough Rice 1190.0 -90.5 1,217.0 1,234.5 974.00 +24% -9%
Prices are Wednesdays closing rates for the forward contracts indicated. The 2016 price is the forward price reported 1 year ago.
The annual change reflects the % change in the Q4 2017 contract price against the Q4 2016 and the 2014 mean.

QUICK GLANCE

CORN: WHEAT:
The market continues to evaluate the yield reports from early The trade looks for USDAs US all wheat production estimate
harvested fields. If they can continue to come in better than to come in at 1,719 million bushels, which would be a trim of
expected, then the market could move lower. USDA is about 20 million bushels from USDAs August forecast at 1,739
scheduled to release its Grain Stocks report on Friday. million. IEGs outlook is smaller at 1,668 million bushels.
SOYBEAN: RICE:
Pressure is coming from improving rainfall in Brazil, better- Although futures have posted significant losses recently, the
than-expected yield reports. Prices also were pressured by the outlook is for y-o-y increases, as supplies are forecast to
decline in soybean oil, following the EPA statement that it was tighten. Harvest progress could be pressuring futures,
considering lowering the fuel volume requirements. especially if yields are coming in better than expected.

EURASIA

RUSSIA

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 28 September 2017

Reports suggest that Russia will likely maintain their winter grain sowing area this planting season. Russian farmers reportedly have
sown winter grains on about 11.2 million hectares or about 64% of the planned 17.5 million hectares. Planting pace is running
ahead of last years pace.

SOUTHERN ASIA

INDIA
Indias agriculture ministry forecast a 2.8% drop in the countrys kharif crop production this year, as a patchy monsoon caused
flooding in some areas and prolonged dryness in others.

In its first estimate for the 2017/18 kharif season, the ministry pegged food grain production at 134.7 million t, down from last
seasons record 138.5 million. Production of oilseeds was forecast to drop by 7.7% to 20.68 million t, with soybean output seen
falling by 11.5%. Cotton production was also expected to fall by 2% to 32.2 million bales despite a 19% increase in sown area, while
pulse production was seen 7.5% lower than in 2016/17 at 8.7 million t. The only kharif crop to buck the trend was sugarcane, where
production was expected to rise by 10% to 338 million t.

Data from the India Meteorological department showed that as of September 24, some 212 out of 630 districts had seen monsoon
rains at least 20% below normal, whereas 100 districts experienced excess rains of at least 20% above normal. The state of Gujarat
was among those areas affected by floods, while parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh suffered from prolonged dry spells.

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES
US corn continues to lag the average and year-ago levels of the amount of the crop that is mature and harvested, according to
USDA's Crop Progress report. Just over half 51% was rated mature as of September 23, behind the average pace of 64% and the
year-ago level of 70%. Similarly, corn harvest is at 11% complete against a 17-percent five-year average and 14% at this point in
2016. Most major US corn production states are anywhere from 4% or more behind the average pace at this point in the year. The
level of corn rated good/excellent held steady at 61% with 1% more shifted from good to excellent.

Ahead of the report, traders expected corn harvest at 14% with soybean harvest at 11%, according to a poll released by Reuters.
Condition ratings for corn were expected at 60% good/excellent, down 1% point from the prior week, with soybeans were expected
steady at 59% good/excellent. Traders also looked for winter wheat to be 26% planted.

Soybean harvest moved to 10% complete, just behind the average pace of 12% but ahead of year-ago when nine% was harvested.
Soybean condition ratings also improved slightly, with 60% good/excellent, up 1% point from the prior week.

Winter wheat seeding is now 24% complete, behind the average pace of 28% and less than expected. Several key states like Kansas,
Colorado and Oklahoma are all still behind their average pace at this point of the season.

LATIN AMERICA

ARGENTINA
Argentina is set to lose more than US$180 million in potential export revenues and around 10% of the expected exportable balance
of its 2017/18 wheat crop due to excess rain and flooding, according to new estimates published in the country. The 2017/18
wheat production forecast has been cut by some 1 million t after 150,000 hectares were not sown because of the extensive
flooding and a further 100,000 ha of the crop were lost following intense rainfalls that hit the region of Buenos Aires recently.

These 250,000 ha that will not be harvested in Buenos Aires are compounded by a further 35,000 ha lost in the region of La Pampa,
where rains flooded certain fields with twice the usual volume of water that is characteristic for this time of the year, according to a
new analysis published by Argentinas Rosario Board of Trade (BCR). The wet conditions have also raised concerns about the
prospects for Argentina's 2017/18 corn and soy crops.

The calculated value of lost potential wheat exports amounts to USD180.32 million, based on a FOB price of USD180 per t of wheat
from the new crop. To put this loss in context, the 1 million t of unrealized production would be 10% of the estimated total wheat
exports for the new 2017/18 season, which are expected to reach around 10 million t.

Argentinas wheat production is now expected to range between 16-16.5 million t, down at least 0.5 million t from the previous
season. This projection is based on an assumed sown acreage of 5.45 million ha and average yields of 3.12 t per ha.

BRAZIL

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Brazilian growers are set to harvest 108.50 million t of soybeans in 2018, according to the first forecast for the next season issued
by the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (ABIOVE) this month. This is exactly 5 million t below the organizations 113.50
million t estimate for Brazils soy harvest in 2017.

Larger soy processing will be one of the highlights of 2018: from 41.50 million t predicted for 2017 to 43 million t [in 2018]. This will
be reflected in a larger production of protein meal, amounting to 32.70 million t [in 2018] compared to this years estimate of 31.50
million t, and an increased soy oil production from 8.20 million t [in 2017] to 8.50 million t, explained the organization.

ABIOVE attributed the higher forecast for soy processing primarily to the introduction of B10 in the market in March 2018. This
means that the current biodiesel to fossil diesel mixture will change from 8% (B8) to 10%. In addition to the larger domestic
processing, ABIOVE also expects soybean exports to rise by 1 million t to 65 million t in 2018. Domestic consumption of soy oil will
also increase to 7.70 million t, up from 7.0 million t in 2017.

In terms of revenue, Brazil stands to earn USD29.38 billion in 2018 from foreign sales of soybeans and soy products, which is just a
notch below ABIOVEs forecast of USD29.82 billion for this year. This growth is also linked to the very positive performance of the
industry in 2017, with soy production expected to increase by 18.3% and soy exports by 24.1% rise, as well as a 5% expansion in
processing.

FERTECON FERTILIZER AND CROP INDICES

Crop Index Fertilizer Index

135
Jan 2010 = 100

110

85

Source: Fertecon & CBOT

60
Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jul-17
May-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

Using 6 January 2010 as the starting point (Jan 2010=100), the FERTECON indices aim to assess relative fertilizer affordability and May-17
illustrate the comparative movement of fertilizer prices (a basket of urea, DAP and MOP) against crop prices. The denotation is that
the higher the crop index is relative to the fertilizer index, the more affordable fertilizers are to farmers and vice versa.

PHOSPHATE REPORT is prepared by Neil Griffiths Phone: +44 20 7551 9794 Contact email: neil.griffiths@fertecon.com

FERTECON PHOSPHATE REPORT is published weekly by:

FERTECON, Agribusiness Intelligence, Informa UK Ltd., Christchurch Court, 10-15 Newgate Street, London, EC1A 7AZ, UK.
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