China's Population History

China has had a rocky population history, littered with war, famine, and natural disasters. Five of the nine most
deadly wars took place in China, killing an estimated total of over 123 million people. The most deadly was
the Three Kingdoms period (220AD - 280AD), where an estimated 40 million people died from war, famine, and
disease. In 1850, a man named Hong Xiuquan led a rebellion to try to create the "Heavenly Kingdom of
Taiping." By proclaiming himself to be the younger brother of Jesus, he grew his following to between 10,000
and 30,000 followers, and by late 1850 they controlled over a third of China. During the 15 years of the
rebellion, an estimated 20-30 million people died, primarily due to plague and famine.

China's Growth Problems

The size of China's population has long been a hot political issue in China. After rapid population growth in the
middle of the 20th century, the Chinese government sought to limit population growth by introducting the
famous "one child policy."

The scheme, which rewarded couples that agreed to have just one child with cash bonuses and better access
to housing, proved so successful that the birth rate of 1.4 children per woman fell below the replacement rate of
2.1 children per woman. As a result, experts are now concerned that Chinas low birth rate, combined with its
aging population, will damage its future economic development.

The one child policy was met with a great deal of resistance, particularly in rural areas. Families who breach
this policy tend to lie on census polls, so the true population of China may be a bit skewed. This means that
Chinese population statistics have become less reliable since the policy began in the 1970s. The policy was
ended by the Chinese government in 2016.

Much of Chinas economic growth has been attributed to its abundant and cheap workforce, combined with its
low social costs. With the number of young Chinese falling and the number of elderly Chinese increasing, it is
not certain whether Chinas economy can continue to grow at the same rapid rate.

China also has an abnormal ratio of male to female births. Whereas in most countries more girls are born than
boys, in China the reverse is true. Many suspect that this is because of a preference for boys among Chinese
families.

China Population Growth

According to current projections, China's population will finally peak in 2028 with a shrinking labor force and an
over-65 population of 240 million. Only Japan has aged faster than China.

China has another very serious demographic problem due to sex-selective abortion and its one-child policy,
resulting in a ratio of 120 boys for every 100 girls. It's estimated that the percentage of men in their late 30's
who have never married will quintuple by 2030, and this large number of unmarried young men will have a
detrimental impact on population growth.

By 2028, both India and China are estimated to have 1.4 billion residents each, but India will start to take 1st
place with a growth continuing until 2050, while China's population is expected to decline after 2030.