STUDIU DE CAZ

Productia de cartofi n judeul Hunedoara, n funcie de suprafata

1. Analiza primara a datelor

Tabelul de date
Anul Productia Suprafata
1990 689 61
1991 490 85
1992 480 48
1993 538 54
1994 1530 120
1995 1805 121
1996 2160 144
1997 1500 150
1998 2325 155
1999 2560 160
2000 1500 160
2001 2394 161
2002 2240 160
2003 1440 160
1739

Pentru fiecare tip de date:

Diagrama
 Histograma

Media si eroarea standard

124,2143 Mean or average

Standard error (variability of sample average, if random

11,66858 sample)
 2. Analiza de corelatie si regresie

Diagrama de imprastiere
Suprafata

200

150

100

50

0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Productia

Corelatia

0,866931 Correlation between Productia and Suprafata

Ecuatia de regresie

Regression analysis to predict Suprafata from Productia.

The prediction equation is:
Suprafata
= 46,08769
+0,05052 Productia

R
0,75157 squared
22,64986 Standard error of estimate
14 Number of observations
F
36,30326 statistic
5,98E-05 p value

95% 95%
Coeff LowerCI UpperCI StdErr t p Significant?
Constant 46,08769 14,90884 77,26655246 14,31002 3,220658711 0,007345 Yes (p<0.01)
Productia 0,050518 0,03225 0,068786539 0,008384 6,025218438 5,98E-05 Yes (p<0.001)

The R-squared value, 75.2%, indicates the proportion of the variance of Suprafata
that is explained by the regression model.
Thus Productia explains
A very highly significant proportion of the variation in Suprafata, based on the F test (p<0.001).
The standard error of estimate, 22.6498626, indicates the typical size
of errors made in predicting Suprafata using the regression model.
We estimate that:
0,050518 is the increase in Suprafata associated with an increase in Productia of 1 unit. This is very highly significa

Simulare cu ecuatia de regresie

Productia
simulata
Suprafata regresie
129 1618,063
131 1647,823
93 1082,383
98 1156,783
131 1647,823
118 1454,383
65 665,743
93 1082,383
99 1171,663
67 695,503
130 1632,943
78 859,183
133 1677,583
115 1409,743
99 1171,663
64 650,863
148 1900,783
148 1900,783
113 1379,983
146 1871,023
160 2079,343
114 1394,863
102 1216,303

Diagrama, histograma, media si eroarea standard pentru simulare

Diagrama
 180

160

140

120

100
S e r ie 1
80

60

40

20

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Histograma

Media si eroarea standard

1363,809087 Mean or average

86,0653357 Standard error (variability of sample average, if random sample)

3. Metoda Monte Carlo

Tabelul de probabilitati si probabilitati cumulate

Probabilitatea
Anul Productia Suprafata Probabilitatea cumulata
1990 689 61 0,035077631 0,035077631
1991 490 85 0,048878666 0,083956297
1992 480 48 0,02760207 0,111558367
1993 538 54 0,031052329 0,142610696
1994 1530 120 0,069005175 0,211615871
1995 1805 121 0,069580219 0,28119609
1996 2160 144 0,08280621 0,3640023
1997 1500 150 0,086256469 0,450258769
1998 2325 155 0,089131685 0,539390454
1999 2560 160 0,092006901 0,631397355
2000 1500 160 0,092006901 0,723404255
2001 2394 161 0,092581944 0,815986199
2002 2240 160 0,092006901 0,907993099
2003 1440 160 0,092006901 1
1739

Simulare cu metoda Monte Carlo

Limita Numere Productia

Anul inferioara Productia Intervale aleatoare simulata
1990 0 689 [0;0,0)35078 0,2059975 1530
[0,035078 ;
1991 0,035077631 490 0,083956) 0,9375624 2394
1992 0,083956297 480 [0,083956;0,111558) 0,517682 2325
1993 0,111558367 538 [0,111558;0,142611) 0,2616395 1805
1994 0,142610696 1530 [0,142611;0,211616) 0,7349574 2394
1995 0,211615871 1805 [0,211616;0,281196) 0,7663029 2394
1996 0,28119609 2160 [0,281196;0,364002) 0,9963282 2394
1997 0,3640023 1500 [0,364002;0,450259) 0,2554574 1805
1998 0,450258769 2325 [0,450259;0,53939) 0,3675571 1500
1999 0,539390454 2560 [0,53939;0,631397) 0,3549669 2160
2000 0,631397355 1500 [0,631397;0,723404) 0,1477126 1530
2001 0,723404255 2394 [0,723404;0,815986) 0,0274981 689
2002 0,815986199 2240 [0,815986;0,907993) 0,992714 2394
2003 0,907993099 1440 [0,907993;1) 0,2228909 1805

Diagrama, histograma, media si eroarea standard pentru simulare

1918,416 Mean or average

Standard error (variability of sample average, if random

60,70501 sample)

4. Concluzii

Diagrama de imprastiere si corelatia dintre cele doua tipuri de

simulari
 Correlation between Productia simulata and
0,090965576 Productia simulata regresie