Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar 2 2017

U TO M OTIVE
A
TION
DISRUP
RADAR
#2
Asia ahead
Have major Western European markets
already lost the race for future mobility?
September 2017
2 Automotive Disruption RadarIssue #2
Asia ahead
Have major Western European markets

already lost the race?
In an analysis of 11 countries, the Automotive While Asian countries like Singapore, ASIA LEADS IN 4 OUT OF 5 DIMENSIONS
Disruption Radar (ADR) has named the Netherlands China, or South Korea are speeding up
as the leading country for introducing autonomous Leading regions by ADR dimension
vehicles. The only major automotive market to rank their activities, it looks as though
was China at no. 2, while other key markets are at mature Western markets and
best in the midfield. Especially with respect to German OEMs in particular are busy Asia
regulation of autonomous vehicles, countries are protecting themselves as they manage
quickly making significant progress in providing a 5
legal framework for testing the new technology on
the "Dieselgate" and NOx emissions Industry 1
Asia
activity
public roads. For example, Singapore introduced crisis. Customer
interest
a more flexible legal framework for approving
automated vehicles on public roads, enabling the Western 4
first commercialization of "robocab" business As a result, there is a chance that China will Europe Infra-
structure
models. become a leader in autonomous driving just as 2
it did for EVs/PHEVs. Recently discussed diesel 3 Regulation
The results of such tests are likely to be positive, vehicle bans in Western European cities might be Technology
as the customer survey of 11,000 people shows the right signal to shift OEMs towards electrified,
Asia,
that 45% are interested in autonomous mobility autonomous mobility and maneuver the
Western Europe,
services. This technology is sure to be "the next big customer away from (diesel) combustion engines.
Asia, USA 1
thing" in the automotive industry, and the race is on: Again, regulation would open the door to more
Western Europe,
markets that have strong customer demand, low sustainable mobility, and traditional OEMs would
USA 1
regulatory hurdles, general technology readiness, gain the trust of their customers by pushing for it.
and sufficient infrastructure will take the lead.
1 All regions at same level

Asia combines strong regulatory activity AUTOMOTIVE DISRUPTION RADAR ISSUE #2

with high customer interest
Significant progress in dimensions
It thus provides the best conditions for Customer interest (1), Regulation (2) and Technology (3)
new mobility solutions
The 2nd edition of the Roland Berger Automotive

Disruption Radar has identified a certain acceleration
Amount of shared vehicles Mobility concept preferences
in the trend towards autonomous mobility:
Digital sales channel OEM Autonomous vehicle preferences
Regulatory activities around the globe are EV portfolio Mobility planning

opening the door for autonomous vehicles (IL4 R&D intensity Digitized culture
and above) Significant push towards internal
combustion engine (ICE) bans, especially diesel,
Autonomous driving
Automotive products
5 preferences
expected (Level 4+) Industry

activity
1 EV preferences
Interest in EVs and autonomous products Test roads Customer Mobility behavior
remains high among customers, and they show Autonomous vehicle interest
increasing willingness to leverage the internet Vehicle-2-vehicle
4
EV/PHEV sales
for mobility satisfaction communication
R&D activities are on the rise and VC invested
Multimodal mobility
Infra- Customer
in start-ups is climbing structure curiosity
While the Netherlands has kept its top position in

EV/PHEV charging 2 Type approval
the rankings, China moved to no. 2, and represents

infrastructure
Mobile network
3 Regulation process
Restrictions
the only major automotive market in the top 3. 5G coverage Technology for ICEs
Singapore follows at no. 3. Other major automotive Venture capital investment
markets, such as Germany, France, Japan or the Artificial intelligence CO2 legislation
U.S., are ranked in the middle or at the bottom. Venture capital investment Mobility Automotive association activities
Battery cost EVs Autonomous vehicle
Major Western automotive markets will need to Patent Computing power
speed up implementation of existing strategies and activities
technologies in order to minimize the risk of China
taking the lead in autonomous driving.
In addition to ongoing actions for restricting ICEs, SHARE OF POTENTIAL BUYERS

Countries and communities are governments have made moves towards enabling FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES
expected to further push ICE bans commercialization of IL4+ vehicles. Asian countries show highest interest in buying
an electric vehicle
Clear trend towards enabling
While the United States allows vehicle self-
commercialization of IL4/IL5 vehicles certification and thus has no regulatory roadblock "Are you considering buying a battery
for introducing (semi-)autonomous vehicles to the electric vehicle as your next car?"
market, other nations are in the process of adapting
Asia
In 2017, many countries took action specifically existing laws. For example, Japan created a special
50% 50%
to ban conventional vehicles from the road. For zone near Haneda Airport for the first tests of
example, the UK and France announced plans to driverless vehicles. The country also set approval Western Europe
prohibit ICE vehicles as of 2040. While these actions criteria for road testing driverless vehicles. In 30% 70%
will not take effect until decades in the future, there Germany, an ethics commission provided a USA
are other initiatives already in place today that target framework for defining a vehicle approval process. 15% 85%
diesel engines: Paris is planning to ban diesel Singapore shows the most acceleration in activities:
vehicles by 2020, and currently prohibits vehicles autonomous vehicle (AV) trials can now take place Yes No
built prior to 2001 from driving in the city on on public roads in Singapore, after the Road Traffic
workdays. The Netherlands has 13 "environmental Act (RTA) was amended in February to give the Participants by country: China, 1,016; France, 1,008; Germany, 1,009;
India, 1,007; Italy, 1,001; Japan, 1,010; Netherlands, 1,004; Singapore, 1,010;
zones," in which commercial vehicles built prior Land Transport Authority (LTA) flexibility to keep South Korea, 1,002; UK, 1,010; USA, 1,001
to 2001 are banned. In the cities of Utrecht and pace with the rapidly evolving technology. The LTA Source: RB online survey, July 2017: 11,078 participants
Rotterdam, the ban includes passenger vehicles, is now allowed to create new rules that can place
too. time and space limits on the AV trials, set standards EV/PHEV SALES [Jan-June 2017, '000 units]
for the design of the AV equipment, and impose Asia leads in EV/PHEV sales Higher PHEV
Germany has also defined "environmental zones"; requirements to share data from the trials. share in Western Europe and USA
if diesel vehicles wish to obtain permanent access
Asia
to these zones, they need to comply with EU3+DPF The regulatory framework can also exempt AVs,
168 55 223
or at least EU4. However, these actions were not operators of AVs, and those conducting or
sufficient to meet NOx limits, and recent court participating in trials of AVs from existing RTA Western Europe
decisions in France and Germany ordered cities to provisions that make a human driver responsible for 71 61 132
enforce compliance with the set limits; otherwise, the safe use of a motor vehicle while on a public USA
a city-wide driving ban will be imposed. Observers road. Singapore wants to provide the flexibility 47 43 90
expect further ICE regulations to take effect over the needed to assess the appropriate regulatory
next 12 months, which will influence the indicator response more quickly and limited these special EV PHEV
rating in the ADR. rules to a five-year timeframe.

Source: EV Volumes
increases were in Germany (1.2% vs. 0.7% sales REASONS FOR NOT BUYING
Customers are awaiting cost- share), Japan, and Italy (1.2% vs. 0.5% each). EV/ AN ELECTRIC VEHICLE
competitive non-ICE mobility solutions PHEV models' share of the total product portfolio In Asia, insufficient infrastructure is the main
increased from 11% to 12% in Western Europe reason for not buying an EV
Significant progress on EVs/PHEVs
and from 10% to 11% in the U.S.
"If you would NOT consider buying an
Current industry scandals, such as diesel emissions EV, it is because"
after-treatment ("Dieselgate") and NOx emissions in (share of people who are not potential buyers of
city centers, are raising customer awareness of OEMs are forming alliances to develop an electric vehicle; multiple responses possible)
environmentally balanced mobility. In addition, the autonomous vehicle technology
level of trust placed in the industry has suffered a
The ADR monitored increased industry
major blow (especially in Western Europe). As a Asia
consequence, it is likely that customers will be more efforts in R&D 42%
open to satisfying their mobility demand through 54%
27%
new players, threatening traditional OEM business. During the past few years, several alliances were
20%
formed to develop technology and lobby for
The 2nd edition of the ADR survey confirmed high autonomous vehicles. In addition, the industry is
Western Europe
customer demand and interest in electrified and investing more VC in mobility (USD 12.5 bn, +35%)
autonomous mobility; this momentum is expected and artificial intelligence (USD 1.9 bn, +21%) com- 49%
37%
to continue. pared to last year. But it is not only external factors
39%
that are increasing; several factors within the indus- 23%
As a result, 35% of all customers worldwide are try have made progress over the last six months:
considering buying an EV as their next vehicle,
USA
clearly led by Asian countries (India 65%, China The estimated R&D workforce focused on
42%
60%, South Korea 55%), while Western European autonomous driving increased by ~10% 42%
countries show an average interest level. There is The share of relevant patents (patents for 32%
particularly low interest in the Netherlands (25%), autonomous vehicles/functions) increased 31%
driven mainly by reduced subsidies for EVs, which in from 1.7% to 2.0%
turn caused a significant drop in EV/PHEV sales
(from 5.1% to 1.5% sales share). All other countries At the same time, the number of announcements
Price too high Insufficient infrastructure / no place to charge
saw a significant increase in the sales share of EVs/ concerning full test fleets and the realization date of
Low range No model I like
PHEVs. In the first half of 2017, more than 220,000 autonomous vehicles rose, too. Based on the
units were sold. Although China remains the largest identified increase in R&D efforts, it looks like Participants by country: China, 1,016; France, 1,008; Germany, 1,009; India,
market in terms of total sales (some 180,000 units industry players are pushing to carry out their 1,007; Italy, 1,001; Japan, 1,010; Netherlands, 1,004; Singapore, 1,010;
South Korea, 1,002; UK, 1,010; USA, 1,001
in the first half of 2017), the highest relative announced activities. Source: RB online survey, July 2017: 11,078 participants
Country-specific points Country ranking
Netherlands
The Automotive Disruption Radar evaluates
11 countries as they move towards a new #1
paradigm of mobility: commercial, large-
scale introduction of autonomous driving.
We defined a set of 27 indicators along
5 dimensions: #2
China
Singapore
Customer interest: Do people want
autonomous vehicles and to what extent? #3
South Korea
Regulation: What are the regulatory
conditions? #4
Infrastructure: How developed is the

infrastructure for autonomous vehicles?
#5
Germany
Technology: How far developed is the
technology for autonomous driving?
#6
France
Industry activities: Which solutions have
#7
India
been announced or already exist?
#8
UK
Automotive Disruption Radar provides guidance
Every country receives a score for each of
#9 Japan The ADR monitors the transition as today's industry players
the 27 indicators. This framework allows us transform into mobility service providers. To do so, it looks at
to conduct a fact-based assessment to try
#10 US 27 selected indicators that have been measured on a factual
to determine which nation is most likely to #11 Italy
basis, including interviews with over 11,000 end users.
introduce autonomous mobility first. All indicators are analyzed across 11 countries, providing
context for determining in which markets the transition is
accelerating.
Rank Change vs. last issue
Source: Roland Berger

Country ranking
The Netherlands China
#1 #2
Y
IV I TY CT
I VI T
CU
YA
CT
1
TR ST
Leading or scoring high on all criteria, Y A CU US
O
TR ST
M
D
O
US
the Netherlands currently has the most
IN
ER
IN
balanced set of prerequisites.
TE
M
D
IN
RE S
ER
Insights and key changes since Issue #1:
T
IN
TE
1 ignificant decrease of EV/PHEV sales
S
INFRASTRUC
RE S
(from 5.1% to 1.5% sales share) due to
lowered subsidies customers claim
T
2
cost of buying an EV is too high.
However, the Netherlands leads
TUR
2
INFRASTRUC
in EV infrastructure
E
1
ON
urrent low level of autonomous
C
TI
2
LA
test tracks expected to be enhanced GU
RE
through the "Autonomous Vehicle T EC
HNO
(Trial) Bill", a regulatory initiative for L O GY
TUR
removing legal barriers to testing

autonomous vehicles China is making a strong push for EVs and city traffic
E
optimization and has tech-savvy customers, providing
ON
a great basis for autonomous mobility.
TI
LAU
R EG 1 econd highest rating regarding the number of shared
S
T EC vehicles on the road, clearly indicating a solid basis for
HNO shared mobility
L O GY
2 urther development in type approval of IL4/IL5 vehicles
F
expected, including launch of larger test fleets
Global average Country score

Country ranking
Singapore South Korea Germany
#3 #4 #5
Y Y Y
I VI T I VI T I VI T
CT CU CT CU CT CU
YA ST YA ST YA ST
TR O TR O TR O
US US US 1
M
M
D
D
IN
IN
IN
ER
ER
ER
IN
IN
IN
TE
TE
TE
2 1
RE S
RE S
RE S
T
T
2
INFRASTRUC
INFRASTRUC
INFRASTRUC
1
2
TUR
TUR
TUR
E
E
ON
ON
ON
TI
TI
TI
LA
LA
LA
GU GU GU
RE RE RE
T EC T EC T EC
HNO HNO HNO
L O GY L O GY L O GY
Singapore features the most advanced urban mobility concepts, South Korea has tech-savvy customers and provides all Customer interest is medium, and indicators are developing
including simplified IL4/IL5 vehicle approval processes and its public roadways for testing IL4+ vehicles however, less quickly than in the top-ranked nations.
customers used to shared vehicles. EV/PHEVs behind top-ranked nations.
Insights and key changes since Issue #1: Insights and key changes since Issue #1:
1 I ncreasing supply of EV/PHEV vehicle models and significant
1 urrent low sales share of EVs, caused by low supply
C 1 ustomer interest in EVs among the survey's highest,
C increase in EV/PHEV sales Further restrictions on ICEs
of models and insufficient charging infrastructure but EV/PHEV sales currently low Customers claim high expected with positive effect on EV/PHEV sales
prices and insufficient infrastructure as main reasons
2 I ntroduction of more flexible vehicle approval expected 2 thics commission provided guidelines for vehicle approval
E
to push robocab test fleets 2 L eading country for autonomous test tracks: all public roads process of IL4/IL5 vehicles
are declared potential test tracks (excluding special areas
such as school zones, etc.)

Country ranking
France India UK
#6 #7 #8
Y Y Y
CT CU CT CU CT CU
YA ST YA ST YA ST
TR O TR O TR O
US US US
M
M
D
D
IN
IN
IN
ER
ER
ER
IN
IN
IN
TE
TE
TE
RE S
RE S
RE S
T
T
INFRASTRUC
INFRASTRUC
INFRASTRUC
TUR
TUR
TUR
E
E
ON
ON
ON
TI
TI
TI
LA
LA
LA
GU GU GU
RE RE RE
T EC T EC T EC
HNO HNO HNO
Customer interest is medium, and indicators are developing India is driven mainly by high customer interest in all categories, Brexit negotiations are affecting the automotive industry in
less quickly than in the top-ranked nations. However, but key enablers like technology infrastructure and EV/PHEV the UK and customer behavior in general therefore only
increasing restrictions on ICE vehicles expected (especially development are not sufficient. Plans to push e-mobility moderate customer interest in EVs and autonomous mobility
diesel engines), driving the market penetration of EVs/PHEVs. in India have been announced, but not yet implemented. services.

Country ranking
Japan US Italy
#9 #10 #11
Y Y Y
CT CU CT CU CT CU
YA ST YA ST YA ST
TR O TR O TR O
US US US
M
M
D
D
IN
IN
IN
ER
ER
ER
IN
IN
IN
TE
TE
TE
RE S
RE S
RE S
T
T
INFRASTRUC
INFRASTRUC
INFRASTRUC
TUR
TUR
TUR
E
E
ON
ON
ON
TI
TI
TI
LA
LA
LA
GU GU GU
RE RE RE
T EC T EC T EC
HNO HNO HNO
General technical infrastructure is in line with leading nations U.S. provides a mixed picture: on one side, traditional OEMs Currently no test track for autonomous vehicles in place, but
like the Netherlands and China. Current lack of regulatory represented by GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler; on the other, some have been announced, including "special zones" with
flexibility is expected to decrease thanks to the introduction Silicon Valley start-ups and Tesla as the technology leader. higher legal flexibility for autonomous vehicles. Italy is expected
of "special zones" for enabling the testing of autonomous However, looking at the whole country, customer interest is to accelerate its activities in the near future.
vehicles on public roads. only moderate and the EV indicator level is relatively weak.

List of all indicators and measures
Amount of shared vehicles Mobility concept preferences

Shared vehicles in car parc [%] % of people who know at least 1 person who does not use their own car for mobility
Digital sales channel OEM Autonomous vehicle preferences
Brands with direct online sales channel [%] % of people who would use a fully autonomous robocab if it cost less than owning a vehicle
EV portfolio Mobility planning
EV models currently on offer [% of total models] % of people who use an app at least once a week to plan a trip
R&D intensity Autonomous driving Digitized culture preferences
No. of FTEs listed on LinkedIn ['000 employees] % of people interested in buying a vehicle directly on the internet
Automotive products (Level 4+) 5 EV preferences
Level 4 city vehicles [% of total car parc] Industry
activity
1 % of people who are considering buying an EV as their next vehicle
Test roads Autonomous vehicles Customer Mobility behavior

Test tracks in operation [#; km] interest % of overall distance traveled by car
Vehicle-2-vehicle communication EV/PHEV sales

Models with V2V functions [% of total models on the market] 4 % of total vehicle sales
Multimodal mobility Infra- Customer curiosity

Usage of multimodal mobility structure People's web search behavior
EV/PHEV charging infrastructure

2 Type approval process
Number of charging stations per km of road 3 Regulation Current level of regulation
Mobile network 5G coverage Technology Restrictions for ICEs

Steps taken towards 5G installation Restrictions on ICE vehicles in cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants
Venture capital investment Artificial intelligence CO2 legislation
Total in USD bn CO2 emissions target in g/km
Venture capital investment Mobility Automotive association activities
Total in USD bn Positive actions/press releases [% of total number of actions/releases]
Battery cost EVs Autonomous vehicle Computing power
Expected development of battery cost [USD/kWh] Current level of computing power
Patent activities
Automotive patents filed related to autonomous technology [% of total]
Indicators Measures
Contacts
WE WELCOME YOUR QUESTIONS, COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS
AUTHORS PUBLISHER
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart Stefan Riederle ROLAND BERGER GMBH

Senior Partner Senior Project Manager Sederanger 1
+49 711 3275-7421 +49 89 9230-8169 80538 Munich
Wolfgang.Bernhart@rolandberger.com Stefan.Riederle@rolandberger.com Germany
+49 89 9230-0
www.rolandberger.com
About us
Roland Berger, founded in 1967, is the only leading global consultancy of German heritage and Automotive Disruption MADE by RB
European origin. With 2,400 employees working from 34 countries, we have successful operations We believe that the combination of 4 dimensions
in all major international markets. Our 50 offices are located in the key global business hubs. (Mobility, Autonomous driving, Digital and
The consultancy is an independent partnership owned exclusively by 220 Partners. Electrification) is likely to trigger a major
disruption in the automotive industry over the
Navigating Complexity next 15 years. In 2017, we are bringing together
Roland Berger has been helping its clients to manage change for half a century. Looking forward to the our experts from all around the world to try to
next 50 years, we are committed to supporting our clients as they face the next frontier. To us, this means make this new future and its implications more
Cover photo: kalafoto/AdobeStock
navigating the complexities that define our times. We help our clients devise and implement responsive concrete, and to best support the key decision
strategies essential to lasting success. makers of the automotive industry.
This publication has been prepared for general guidance only. The reader should not act according to any information provided in this publication without receiving
specific professional advice. Roland Berger GmbH shall not be liable for any damages resulting from any use of the information contained in the publication.
2017 ROLAND BERGER GMBH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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U TO M OTIVE

Have major Western European markets

1 All regions at same level

Asia combines strong regulatory activity AUTOMOTIVE DISRUPTION RADAR ISSUE #2

The 2nd edition of the Roland Berger Automotive

Regulatory activities around the globe are EV portfolio Mobility planning

expected (Level 4+) Industry

While the Netherlands has kept its top position in

the rankings, China moved to no. 2, and represents

In addition to ongoing actions for restricting ICEs, SHARE OF POTENTIAL BUYERS

rating in the ADR. rules to a five-year timeframe.

Country-specific points Country ranking

Infrastructure: How developed is the

Source: Roland Berger

The Netherlands China

removing legal barriers to testing

optimization and has tech-savvy customers, providing

Global average Country score

Source: Roland Berger

Singapore South Korea Germany

Source: Roland Berger

Global average Country score

Source: Roland Berger

Global average Country score

Source: Roland Berger

List of all indicators and measures

Amount of shared vehicles Mobility concept preferences

Test roads Autonomous vehicles Customer Mobility behavior

Vehicle-2-vehicle communication EV/PHEV sales

Multimodal mobility Infra- Customer curiosity

EV/PHEV charging infrastructure

Mobile network 5G coverage Technology Restrictions for ICEs

Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart Stefan Riederle ROLAND BERGER GMBH

2017 ROLAND BERGER GMBH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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