Reaching a Balance Between

Macro, Small Cells, and Carrier Wi-Fi

Joe Madden, Principal Analyst, Mobile Experts

 Mobile Experts
Small Market Research firm, based in Silicon Valley
Six people on staff
Focused on Radio Access Networks
Market Research Reports:

Macrocell Transceiver Forecast

Semiconductors for Remote Radio Heads
Small Cells
Backhaul for Small Cells
Semiconductors for Small Cells
Advanced Antenna Systems and Beamforming
DAS
MIMO for Mobile Communications
Handset RF Front Ends
Carrier Wi-Fi

See www.mobile-experts.net for details

 Focus on Cost

Carrier Wi-Fi

Note: TCO shown over 8 year period

www.mobile-experts.net +1 408.540.7284 Vision for Wireless Ventures

 Cost vs. Density of Traffic
$3.00
Indoor
Small Cell
$2.50
$ / square meter

$2.00

$1.50
Carrier Wi-Fi

$1.00
Macro Stadium DAS
$0.50

Repeater
$0.00
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035
Mbps / square meter

Carrier Wi-Fi represents the cheapest way to add capacity.

Combinations of small cells with Wi-Fi will add MORE capacity.

 Mobile

Macro
Network
Outdoor
Small Cell
Car
Booster
O-DAS
I-DAS
Coverage Capacity
Indoor
Small
Cell

Enterprise
Repeater Femtocell
Carrier
Private Wi-Fi
Consumer Wi-Fi
Femtocell

Fixed

www.mobile-experts.net +1 408.540.7284 Vision for Wireless Ventures

 Macro vs Small Cell Cost Comparison

Small Cell, existing fiber CAPEX/Mbps

8-year OPEX/Mbps

Small cell, NLOS

Owned Tower

Leased Tower

$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000

Normalized for capacity, a macro site is between 2.5x

and 8x more expensive than a small cell
Global Mobile Data Traffic Mobile Experts Small Cell Forecast

Small Cells
Wi-Fi
Macro Network

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

The Macro Network can only handle about half of the traffic in 2016-2017
Private Wi-Fi networks will handle about 25-30% of traffic
Carrier Wi-Fi and Small Cells must pick up the slack
 Mobile Experts Small Cell Forecast
6M
Consumer Femtocell
Enterprise Femtocell
5M
Small Cell Shipments

Carrier Grade Small Cells

4M

3M

2M

1M

M
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Consumer Femtocells are driven by consumer demand, not by operators

--Linear growth in sales
Carrier Grade Small Cells are driven by 2x capacity every year
--Geometric curve will follow the data demand curve
 Small Cells will converge with Wi-Fi
7,000,000

6,000,000
Small Cells Incorporating Wi-Fi

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

By 2017, over 70% of enterprise and carrier-grade small cells will include Wi-Fi.

Mobile Experts is currently researching the details of how this will happen...
Full Study to be published in April
 Joe Madden
+1 408.540.7284
joe@mobile-experts.net

Joe Madden
408 540-7284
joe@mobile-experts.net