Event Tree Analysis

Event Tree Analysis

Introduction

Event Tree Analysis is a commonly applied technique used for identifying the
consequences that can result following the occurrence of a potentially hazardous
event.

It was first applied in risk assessments for the nuclear industry but is now utilized
by other industries

such as

Chemical processing,

Offshore oil and gas production, and

Transportation.

Purpose
An event is a graphical logic model that identifies and quantifies possible
outcomes following an initiating event.

The event tree provides systematic coverage of the time sequence of event
propagation, either through a series of protective system actions, normal plant functions,
and operator interventions(a pre-incident application).

Applications:
Event Trees have found widespread applications in risk analysis for both nuclear
and chemical industries.

Pre-incident application:

Pre-incident ET can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of a

multi-element protective system.

Pre-incident application examines the systems in place that

would prevent incident-precursors form developing into
incidents.

Post-incident application:

A postincident event tree can be used to identify the

allocate quantitatively the various incident out comes(Eg flash fire,
BLEVE) that might arise from a single release of hazardous material.

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Event Tree Analysis

Logical diagram of Event Tree

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Event Tree Analysis

Steps for constructing Event Tree:

Step 1: Identify the Initiating Event :- The initiating Event is a failure event corresponding to a release
of hazardous material. That event might be corresponding to a pipe leak, a vessel rupture, an
internal explosion etc.

Step 2 : identifying safety Function/Hazard promoting Factor and determine Outcomes:- A Safety
Function is a device, action, or barrier, that can interrupt the sequence from an initiating event to a
hazardous outcome.

Safety functions are

Automatic safety systems,

Alarms to alert operations,

Barriers or containment to limit the effect of an accident.

Step 3 : Construct the ET:- The ET graphically displays the chronological progression of an accident.
Starting with the initiating event , the ET is constructed from LEFT RIGHT. At each heading or node
,two or more alternatives are analyzed until a final outcome is obtained for each node or heading.

Step 4 :Classify the outcomes:- The objective in constructing the ET is to identify important possible
outcomes

Step 5 : Estimate the probability of each Branch in the Event Tree:- Each heading in the event
tree(other than the initiating event) corresponding to a conditional probability of some outcome if
preceding event has occurred.

Step 6 : Quantify the Outcomes:- The frequency of each outcome may be determined by

multiplying the initiating event frequency with the conditional probabilities along each path leading
to that outcome.

Step 7 : Test the Outcomes:- As with FTs, poor ETA can lead to results that are inaccurate or incorrect