ERPOct 17

Impl premium calculator
Implied Risk Premium Calculator
Inputs
BaseYearEarningsfortheIndex Reported CashFlowChoices
Entercurrentlevelofindex 2519.36 DividendsandBuybacksTrailing12months=
Whatcashyield(dividends&buybacks)doyouwanttouseasyourbasenumber? C DividendsandBuybacks(Averageyieldlastdecade)
Cashyieldonindex(Calculatednumberbutyoucanoverrideit) 4.19% DividendsandBuybacks(Averageyieldlast5years)
Whatexpectedgrowthratedoyouwanttouseforthenext5years? TD DividendsandBuybacks(Averagepayoutlastdecade)
Expectedgrowthrateinearningsforthenext5years= 5.48% DividendsandBuybacks(Averagepayoutlast5years)
Entercurrentlongtermriskfreerate= 2.33% DividendandBuybacks(Averagepayout&normalearnings)
Ifyouwanttocomputeanintrinsicvalueforindex,whatERPwouldyouliketouse? ERP10 DividendsandBuybacks,netofstockissues,trailing12months
ERPusedtocomputefairvalueofindex(youcanoverridethisnumber)= 5.47% GrowthChoices
Expectedgrowthrateinthelongterm(afteryear5)= 2.33% Historicalearningsgrowthrate(lastdecade)=
Doyouwanttoadjustthepayoutratiotosustainablelevelsinyear5? No Bottomupforecastedgrowthrate(next5years)=
Hereishowitworks Topdownforecastedgrowthrate(next5years)=
Fortheintrinsicvalueoftheindex,Istartwithyourbasecashflowchoice(fromB5)andgrowthesecashflowsat Fundamentalgrowthrate(basedoncurrentROE)=
theexpectedgrowthrate(fromB7)for5years.Afteryear5,Iusetheexpectedgrowthrateinthelongterm(B12) Fundamentalgrowthrate(basedonaverageROE)=
astheperpetualgrowthrate.ThediscountratethatIuseisthesumoftheriskfreerate(B9)andyourERPchoice(B11).
Ifyouletmeadjustyourpayoutratio,Iadjustittosustainyourlongtermgrowthrate,givenyourROE.Payout=1g/ROE ERPChoices(forindexintrinsicvalue)
FortheimpliedERP,youwillhavetousethegoalseekfunctioninExcel.(Seepicturetotheright) HistoricalEquityriskpremium(US)=
1.Inthesetcellbox,enterB47 HistoricalEquityriskpremium(Global)=
2.In"Tovalue"box,enterthecurrentleveloftheindex AverageimpliedERP(lastdecade)=
3.In"Bychangingcell"enterC39 AverageimpliedERP(1960Current)=
4.ClickonOKandtheanswershouldshowupinC39. HistoricalHighERP(1960Current)=
BaseYearEarnings
ReportedEarningsbycompaniesintrailing12months
OperatingEarnings(oradjustedearnings)
IntrinsicValueEstimate(basedonyourchoiceofERP)
Last12months 1 2 3 4
ExpectedEarnings 115.81 122.16 128.84 135.90 143.34
Expectedcashpayout(dividends+buybacks)as%ofearnings 91.09% 91.09% 91.09% 91.09% 91.09%
ExpectedDividends+Buybacks= 105.49 $111.27 $117.36 $123.79 $130.57
ExpectedTerminalValue=
PresentValue= $103.22 $100.99 $98.81 $96.68
IntrinsicValueofIndex= $2,264.03
IntrinsicTrailingPE= 19.55
IntrinsicCAPE(basedoninflationadjustedtenyearaverageearnings)= 23.83
ImpliedEquityRiskPremiumCalculator
Page 1
ImpliedRiskPremiumincurrentlevelofIndex= 4.92% (GounderToolsandchooseSolverorGoalSeek:Seebelow)
Last12months 1 2 3 4
ExpectedEarnings $115.81 122.16 128.84 135.90 143.34
Expectedcashpayout(dividends+buybacks)as%ofearnings $0.91 91.09% 91.09% 91.09% 91.09%
ExpectedDividends+Buybacks= $105.49 $111.27 $117.36 $123.79 $130.57
ExpectedTerminalValue=
PresentValue= $103.74 $102.03 $100.34 $98.68
IntrinsicValueofIndex= $2,519.36
Page 2
105.49 C
132.51 A10
126.91 A5
106.25 P10
106.43 P5
86.97 NORM
96.43 NC
2.82% H
8.05% BU
5.48% TD
1.29% FC
1.30% FA
4.62% HUS
3.20% HG
5.47% ERP10
4.14% ERPLong
6.45% ERPHigh
$115.81 Reported
108.86 Inputed
5 TerminalYear
151.19 154.72
91.09% 91.09%
$137.72 140.92
$2,576.32
$1,864.33
Page 3
5 TerminalYear
151.19 154.72
91.09% 0.91
$137.72 140.92
$2,863.18
$2,114.58
Page 4
Buyback & Dividend computation
Gross Cash
Year Dividend Yield Buybacks/Index Yield Payout
2001 1.37% 1.25% 2.62% 77.43%
2002 1.81% 1.58% 3.39% 64.78%
2003 1.61% 1.23% 2.84% 57.74%
2004 1.57% 1.78% 3.35% 59.99%
2005 1.79% 3.11% 4.90% 80.01%
2006 1.77% 3.39% 5.16% 83.40%
2007 1.92% 4.58% 6.49% 115.53%
2008 3.15% 4.33% 7.47% 136.37%
2009 1.97% 1.39% 3.36% 65.82%
2010 1.80% 2.61% 4.42% 66.28%
2011 2.11% 3.56% 5.67% 73.91%
2012 2.19% 3.13% 5.32% 78.39%
2013 1.89% 2.88% 4.77% 84.00%
2014 1.92% 3.03% 4.95% 87.79%
2015 2.12% 3.18% 5.30% 107.83%
2016 2.06% 2.78% 4.84% 101.46%
Average: Last 10 years = 5.26% 91.74%
Average: Last 5 years 5.04% 91.89%
Index at the start of the current quarter = 2519.36 Base for normalized Cashflow; Upd
Market value of
Year index Earnings Dividends Buybacks
2001 1148.09 38.85 15.74 14.34
2002 879.82 46.04 15.96 13.87
2003 1111.91 54.69 17.88 13.70
2004 1211.92 67.68 19.01 21.59
2005 1248.29 76.45 22.34 38.82
2006 1418.30 87.72 25.04 48.12
2007 1468.36 82.54 28.14 67.22
2008 903.25 49.51 28.45 39.07
2009 1115.00 56.86 21.97 15.46
2010 1257.64 83.77 22.65 32.88
2011 1257.60 96.44 26.53 44.75
2012 1426.19 96.82 31.25 44.65
2013 1848.36 104.92 34.90 53.23
2014 2058.90 116.16 39.55 62.44
2015 2043.94 100.48 43.41 64.94
2016 2238.82 106.87 46.11 62.32
Trailing four quart 2519.36 115.81 47.30 58.18
Page 5
S&P Cap IQ update 108.86 41.18 55.21

Market Cap Index level Unit adjuster
12/31/2016 19268 2238.82 0.11619369
2015 17956 2043.94 0.11383047
2014 18245 2058.9 0.11284736
2013 16495 1848.36 0.11205577
2012 12742 1426.19 0.11192827
2011 11385 1257.6 0.11046113
2010 11430 1257.64 0.11002975
2009 9928 1115.00 0.11230862
2008 7852 903.25 0.11503439
2007 12868 1468.36 0.11410942
2006 12729 1418.30 0.11142274
Ratio
Index units adjuster = 0.116193689
Computing the trailing 12 month number (S&P Data updated every quarter on March 15, June 15, S
Quarter Earnings Dividends Buybacks Issuances
Last quarter $261.39 $104.01 $120.11
2 quarters ago $247.24 $100.86 $133.15
3 quarters ago $240.11 $103.82 $135.29
4 quarters ago $247.98 $98.43 $112.20
Sum 996.72 407.12 500.75 82.365
S&P Capital IQ data (updated every month and does not match up to the S&P update every three quarters)
Month Earnings Dividends Buybacks Issuances
10/1/17 989.591 374.4 501.87 82.365
Page 6
Return on Equity
Net Profit Margin
Column1
11.92% 5.27% Updated every month
13.61% 6.82% Updated every quarter
16.79% 7.69%
18.43% 8.59%
18.43% 8.74%
19.36% 9.21%
16.36% 8.05%
9.35% 4.75%
12.60% 6.26%
16.31% 8.70%
16.65% 9.16%
15.79% 8.86%
15.73% 9.39%
16.23% 9.96%
12.77% 8.77%
14.51% 9.12%
14.63% 8.30%
15.00% 9.22%
se for normalized Cashflow; Updated at the start of every quarteUpdated at the start of every quarter
Stock Cash to Net Cash to Dividend Gross Cash

Issuances equity Equity yield Buyback yield Yield
30.08 1.37% 1.25% 2.62%
29.83 1.81% 1.58% 3.39%
31.58 1.61% 1.23% 2.84%
40.60 1.57% 1.78% 3.35%
61.17 1.79% 3.11% 4.90%
73.16 1.77% 3.39% 5.16%
95.36 1.92% 4.58% 6.49%
67.52 3.15% 4.33% 7.47%
37.43 1.97% 1.39% 3.36%
55.53 1.80% 2.61% 4.42%
71.28 2.11% 3.56% 5.67%
75.90 2.19% 3.13% 5.32%
88.13 1.89% 2.88% 4.77%
9.58 101.98 92.40 1.92% 3.03% 4.95%
9.43 108.35 98.92 2.12% 3.18% 5.30%
9.06 108.43 98.66 2.06% 2.78% 4.84%
9.06 105.49 96.43 1.88% 2.31% 4.19%
Page 7
9.06 96.39 87.33

Dividends Buybacks
407.12 500.75 Updated January 1, 2017
382.46 572.16
350.43 553.27
311.77 475.59
280.69 398.91
240.20 405.08
205.83 298.82
195.61 137.65
247.29 339.64
246.59 589.12
quarter on March 15, June 15, Sept 15 and Dec 15)
Updated October 1, 2017
P update every three quarters)

Index Units Adjuster
0.11000216 Updated October 1, 2017
Page 8
start of every quarter Last updated 1-Oct-17
Book Value of Inflation

Net Cash Equity at Return on Sales per adjusted
Yield start of year Equity share Inflation rate Earnings
325.8 11.92% 736.88 1.60% 53.22
338.37 13.61% 674.59 2.48% 61.54
325.72 16.79% 710.81 2.04% 70.18
367.17 18.43% 788.17 3.34% 85.80
414.75 18.43% 874.32 3.34% 93.78
453.06 19.36% 952.51 2.52% 104.96
504.39 16.36% 1025.08 4.11% 94.86
529.59 9.35% 1042.46 -0.02% 56.92
451.37 12.60% 908.4 2.81% 63.58
513.58 16.31% 962.71 1.44% 92.34
579.14 16.65% 1052.83 3.06% 103.14
613.14 15.79% 1092.37 1.78% 101.74
666.97 15.73% 1116.81 1.55% 108.57
4.49% 715.84 16.23% 1165.8 0.69% 119.38
4.84% 786.78 12.77% 1145.54 0.67% 102.58
4.41% 736.78 14.51% 1171.9 2.09% 106.87
3.83% 736.78 15.72% 1171.9
Page 9
Updated at the start of every mo
Page 10
Updated at the start of every quarter Last updated 1-Oct-17
Page 11
dated at the start of every month Last updated 1-Jul-17
Page 12
Implied ERP (Monthly from 9-08)
Start of month S&P 500 T.Bond Rate Ten-year average CF CF (Trailing 12 month)
1-Sep-08 1252 3.72%
1-Oct-08 1166 3.83%
1-Nov-08 969 3.95%
1-Dec-08 896 2.92%
1-Jan-09 903 2.21% 52.58
1-Feb-09 826 2.87% 52.58
1-Mar-09 735 3.02% 52.58
1-Apr-09 798 2.71% 51.55
1-May-09 873 3.16% 51.55
1-Jun-09 919 3.47% 51.55
1-Jul-09 919 3.53% 50.95
1-Aug-09 987 3.52% 50.95
1-Sep-09 1021 3.40% 50.95
1-Oct-09 1057 3.30% 48.52
1-Nov-09 1036 3.39% 48.52
1-Dec-09 1096 3.24% 48.52
1-Jan-10 1115 3.84% 40.38
1-Feb-10 1074 3.58% 40.38
1-Mar-10 1104 3.61% 40.38
1-Apr-10 1169 3.83% 40.34
1-May-10 1187 3.65% 40.34
1-Jun-10 1089 3.30% 40.34
1-Jul-10 1031 2.96% 42.44
1-Aug-10 1106 2.91% 42.44
1-Sep-10 1049 2.47% 42.44
1-Oct-10 1141 2.51% 48.20
1-Nov-10 1183 2.60% 48.20
1-Dec-10 1181 2.80% 48.20
1-Jan-11 1258 3.29% 53.96
1-Feb-11 1286 3.38% 53.96
1-Mar-11 1327 3.42% 53.96
1-Apr-11 1326 3.47% 58.54
1-May-11 1364 3.29% 58.15
1-Jun-11 1345 3.06% 58.15
1-Jul-11 1321 3.17% 62.24
1-Aug-11 1292 2.80% 62.24
1-Sep-11 1219 2.23% 62.24
1-Oct-11 1131 1.92% 68.65
1-Nov-11 1253 2.05% 68.65
1-Dec-11 1247 2.07% 68.65
1-Jan-12 1258 1.87% 59.01 72.23
1-Feb-12 1312 1.81% 59.01 72.23
1-Mar-12 1366 1.98% 59.01 72.23
1-Apr-12 1408 2.21% 66.29 74.07
1-May-12 1398 1.92% 66.29 74.07
Page 13
1-Jun-12 1310 1.55% 66.29 74.07

1-Jul-12 1362 1.65% 64.06 71.55
1-Aug-12 1379 1.47% 64.06 71.55
1-Sep-12 1407 1.55% 64.06 71.55
1-Oct-12 1441 1.62% 67.74 72.74
1-Nov-12 1412 1.75% 67.74 72.74
1-Dec-12 1416 1.62% 67.74 72.74
1-Jan-13 1426 1.76% 69.46 72.25
1-Feb-13 1498 2.00% 69.46 72.25
1-Mar-13 1515 1.88% 69.46 72.25
1-Apr-13 1569 1.85% 76.76 75.31
1-May-13 1598 1.65% 76.76 75.31
1-Jun-13 1631 2.14% 76.76 75.31
1-Jul-13 1606 2.49% 78.66 78.58
1-Aug-13 1686 2.57% 78.66 78.58
1-Sep-13 1633 2.79% 78.66 78.58
1-Oct-13 1682 2.61% 82.35 80.33
1-Nov-13 1757 2.55% 82.35 80.33
1-Dec-13 1806 2.75% 82.35 80.33
1-Jan-14 1848 3.04% 90.52 84.16
1-Feb-14 1783 2.65% 90.52 84.16
1-Mar-14 1859 2.66% 90.52 84.16
1-Apr-14 1874 2.72% 95.39 88.13
1-May-14 1884 2.65% 95.39 88.13
1-Jun-14 1924 2.48% 95.39 88.13
1-Jul-14 1960 2.52% 99.78 96.01
1-Aug-14 1931 2.56% 99.78 96.01
1-Sep-14 2003 2.35% 99.78 96.01
1-Oct-14 1973 2.49% 100.41 97.52
1-Nov-14 2018 2.34% 100.41 97.52
1-Dec-14 2068 2.17% 100.41 97.52
1-Jan-15 2059 2.17% 107.97 100.50
1-Feb-15 1995 1.70% 107.97 100.50
1-Mar-15 2105 2.00% 107.97 100.50
1-Apr-15 2068 1.93% 108.59 101.98
1-May-15 2086 2.05% 108.59 101.98
1-Jun-15 2107 2.13% 108.59 101.98
1-Jul-15 2063 2.36% 108.34 101.58
1-Aug-15 2104 2.18% 108.34 101.58
1-Sep-15 1972 2.22% 108.34 101.58
1-Oct-15 1920 2.06% 100.83 104.20
1-Nov-15 2079 2.15% 100.83 104.20
1-Dec-15 2080 2.21% 100.83 104.20
1-Jan-16 2044 2.27% 107.33 106.10
1-Feb-16 1940 1.92% 107.33 106.10
1-Mar-16 1932 1.74% 107.33 106.10
Page 14
1-Apr-16 2060 1.77% 108.35 108.16

1-May-16 2065 1.83% 108.35 108.99
1-Jun-16 2097 1.83% 108.35 108.88
1-Jul-16 2099 1.47% 111.06 110.61
1-Aug-16 2174 1.45% 111.06 110.61
1-Sep-16 2171 1.59% 111.06 110.61
1-Oct-16 2168 1.60% 112.42 114.73
1-Nov-16 2126 1.84% 112.42 114.73
1-Dec-16 2199 2.39% 112.42 114.73
1-Jan-17 2239 2.45% 117.78 108.67
1-Feb-17 2279 2.47% 117.78 108.67
1-Mar-17 2364 2.39% 117.78 108.67
1-Apr-17 2363 2.39% 124.27 108.43
1-May-17 2384 2.30% 124.27 108.43
1-Jun-17 2412 2.21% 124.27 108.43
1-Jul-17 2423 2.30% 127.46 105.68
1-Aug-17 2470 2.30% 127.46 105.68
1-Sep-17 2418 2.12% 127.46 105.68
1-Oct-17 2519 2.33% 132.51 105.49
Page 15
Expected growth ERP (T12 m with sustainable

Normalized CF rate payout) ERP (T12m)
4.22%
4.51%
5.90%
6.60%
4% 6.43%
4% 6.87%
4% 7.68%
4% 7.01%
4% 6.32%
4% 5.94%
4% 5.86%
4% 5.46%
4% 5.30%
4% 4.86%
4% 4.97%
4.00% 4.73%
7.21% 4.36%
7.21% 4.56%
7.21% 4.44%
7.21% 4.16%
7.21% 4.54%
7.21% 4.79%
7.21% 5.10%
7.21% 4.78%
7.21% 5.10%
7.21% 5.31%
7.21% 5.11%
7.21% 5.08%
6.95% 5.20%
6.95% 5.07%
6.95% 4.90%
6.95% 5.31%
6.95% 5.16%
6.95% 5.27%
6.95% 5.72%
6.95% 5.92%
6.95% 6.39%
6.95% 7.64%
5.50% 6.49%
5.50% 6.51%
7.18% 7.32%
7.18% 7.04%
7.18% 6.73%
7.18% 6.64%
7.18% 6.76%
Page 16
7.18% 7.28%
6.56% 6.59%
6.56% 6.55%
6.56% 6.41%
6.56% 6.35%
6.56% 6.44%
6.56% 6.45%
5.27% 6.00%
5.27% 5.67%
5.32% 5.65%
5.31% 5.68%
5.23% 5.60%
5.43% 5.45%
5.57% 5.73%
5.60% 5.46%
5.69% 5.62%
5.62% 5.59%
5.59% 5.36%
5.67% 5.19%
4.28% 4.96%
4.13% 5.17%
4.13% 4.96%
4.15% 5.15%
4.13% 5.12%
4.06% 5.03%
4.07% 5.38%
4.09% 5.45%
4.00% 5.28%
4.04% 5.43%
4.00% 5.32%
3.93% 5.21%
5.58% 5.78%
5.38% 6.01%
5.51% 5.67%
5.48% 5.86%
5.53% 5.80%
5.56% 5.74%
5.65% 5.81%
5.58% 5.90%
6.32% 6.28%
74.24 6.25% 6.63%
74.24 6.29% 6.12%
74.24 6.32% 6.11%
74.24 5.55% 5.16% 6.12%
74.24 5.38% 5.61% 6.47%
74.24 5.29% 5.72% 6.51%
Page 17
74.24 5.32% 5.15% 6.24%

82.17 5.33% 5.11% 6.22%
82.17 5.33% 5.03% 6.12%
82.17 5.15% 5.08% 6.27%
82.17 5.14% 4.92% 6.06%
82.17 5.21% 4.86% 6.06%
82.17 5.21% 4.91% 6.16%
82.17 5.32% 4.89% 6.26%
82.17 5.62% 4.50% 6.02%
85.67 5.54% 4.50% 5.69%
85.67 5.55% 4.41% 5.59%
85.67 5.51% 4.29% 5.39%
86.97 5.51% 4.51% 5.38%
86.97 5.46% 4.51% 5.34%
86.97 5.42% 4.49% 5.29%
86.97 5.46% 4.62% 5.13%
86.97 5.46% 4.54% 5.03%
86.97 5.37% 4.60% 5.04%
86.97 5.48% 4.63% 4.92%
Page 18
ERP (Net Cash

ERP (Smoothed) ERP (Normalized) Yield) Notes
6.01% Normalized Cash flow = Average CF yield

5.78%
5.52%
5.96%
6.06%
Page 19
6.54%
5.91% Adjusted cash flows and expected growth
5.88%
5.75%
5.92% Adjusted cash flows
6.01%
6.02%
5.78% Adjusted growth rate & cash flows
5.46%
5.43%
5.71%
5.55%
5.46%
5.61%
5.49%
5.32%
5.33% Updated cash flows, growth rate
5.56%
5.33%
5.57% Updated cash flows
5.54%
5.45%
5.59% Updated cash flows
5.67%
5.48%
5.59% 4.87% Updated cash flows
5.48% 4.78%
5.36% 4.68%
6.21% 5.21% Updated cash flows, growth rate
6.45% 5.42%
6.09% 5.11%
6.17% 5.27%
6.10% 5.21%
6.27% 5.14% Updated growth rate
6.69% 5.65%
6.42% 4.69% 5.96% Updated cash flow
5.92% 4.38% 5.50%
5.92% 4.38% 5.43%
6.19% 4.30% 5.46% Updated cash flow, growth rate
6.54% 4.55% 5.92%
6.58% 4.58% 5.96%
Page 20

6.25% 4.73% 5.69% Updated normalized and ten-year yield nu
6.16% 4.66% 5.54%
6.08% 4.52% 5.49%
6.08% 4.52% 5.56%
6.39% 4.60% 5.79%
6.14% 4.42% 5.52%
6.16% 4.50% 5.10% Updated cash flow, growth
6.05% 4.42% 5.10%
5.84% 4.26% 4.93%
6.11% 4.30% 4.87%
6.05% 4.25% 4.84%
6.05% 4.15% 4.69%
6.06% 4.16% 4.62%
Page 21
flow = Average CF yield over last 10 years * Index level at start of quarter
Page 22
ws and expected growth rate
rate & cash flows
ws, growth rate
ws, growth rate
w, growth rate
Page 23
zed and ten-year yield numbers
w, growth
w, growth
w, growth
w, growth
Page 24
Expected growth rate
Bottom up Estimates (Post-election)

Year Earnings on Index Source
2016 118.05 Thomson-Reuters
2017 12.38% 132.67 Thomson-Reuters
2018 11.78% 148.3 Thomson-Reuters
2019 8.63%
2020 5.48%
2021 2.33%
Compounded average 8.05%
Sources for bottom up estimates

Thomson Reuters
Factset
Sources for top down estimates

S&P
Ed Yardeni
Goldman Sachs
Consensus forecasts
Page 25
Top down Estimates (Consensus, post election)

Year Earnings Growth Earnings Source
2016 118.05 Thomson-Reuters
2017 8.67% 128.29 Consensus (See below)
2018 7.09%
2019 5.50%
2020 3.92%
2021 2.33%
Compounded avera 5.48%
Analyst 2017
Subramaniam (BofA) 129.00
Glionna (Barclays) 127.00
Belski (BMO) 134.00
Dwyer (Canaccord) 130.00
Levkovich (Citi) 131.00
Calvasina (CSFB) 124.00
Bianco (Deutsche Bank) 130.00
Kostin (Goldman) 122.00
Darby (Jeffries) 132.00
Lakos-Bujas (JPM) 128.00
Parker (MS) 129.00
Stolzfus (Oppenheimer) 125.00
Golub (RBC) 128.00
Emmanuel (UBS) 127.00
Average 128.29
Page 26
Top Down (Pre-Election)

Earnings GrowthEarnings Source
105 Goldman
10.48% 116 Goldman
5.17% 122 Goldman
4.10% 127 Goldman
2.06%
2.33%
4.78%
Page 27
Implied ERP- Annual since 1960
Year Earnings Yield Dividend Yield T.Bond Rate Implied ERP

1960 5.34% 3.41% 2.76%
1961 4.71% 2.85% 2.35% 2.92%
1962 5.81% 3.40% 3.85% 3.56%
1963 5.51% 3.13% 4.14% 3.38%
1964 5.62% 3.05% 4.21% 3.31%
1965 5.73% 3.06% 4.65% 3.32%
1966 6.74% 3.59% 4.64% 3.68%
1967 5.66% 3.09% 5.70% 3.20%
1968 5.51% 2.93% 6.16% 3.00%
1969 6.63% 3.52% 7.88% 3.74%
1970 5.98% 3.46% 6.50% 3.41%
1971 5.46% 3.10% 5.89% 3.09%
1972 5.23% 2.70% 6.41% 2.72%
1973 8.16% 3.70% 6.90% 4.30%
1974 13.64% 5.43% 7.40% 5.59%
1975 8.55% 4.14% 7.76% 4.13%
1976 9.07% 3.93% 6.81% 4.55%
1977 11.43% 5.11% 7.78% 5.92%
1978 12.11% 5.39% 9.15% 5.72%
1979 13.48% 5.53% 10.33% 6.45%
1980 11.04% 4.74% 12.43% 5.03%
1981 12.39% 5.57% 13.98% 5.73%
1982 9.83% 4.93% 10.47% 4.90%
1983 8.06% 4.32% 11.80% 4.31%
1984 10.07% 4.68% 11.51% 5.11%
1985 7.42% 3.88% 8.99% 3.84%
1986 5.96% 3.38% 7.22% 3.58%
1987 6.49% 3.71% 8.86% 3.99%
1988 8.20% 3.68% 9.14% 3.77%
1989 6.80% 3.32% 7.93% 3.51%
1990 6.58% 3.74% 8.07% 3.89%
1991 4.58% 3.11% 6.70% 3.48%
1992 4.16% 2.90% 6.68% 3.55%
1993 4.25% 2.72% 5.79% 3.17%
1994 5.89% 2.91% 7.82% 3.55%
1995 5.74% 2.30% 5.57% 3.29%
1996 4.83% 2.01% 6.41% 3.20%
1997 4.08% 1.60% 5.74% 2.73%
1998 3.11% 1.32% 4.65% 2.26%
1999 3.07% 1.14% 6.44% 2.05%
2000 3.94% 1.23% 5.11% 2.87%
2001 3.85% 1.37% 5.05% 3.62%
2002 5.23% 1.83% 3.81% 4.10%
2003 4.87% 1.61% 4.25% 3.69%
2004 5.58% 1.60% 4.22% 3.65%
Page 28
Implied ERP- Annual since 1960
2005 5.47% 1.79% 4.39% 4.08%

2006 6.18% 1.77% 4.70% 4.16%
2007 5.62% 1.89% 4.02% 4.37%
2008 7.24% 3.11% 2.21% 6.43%
2009 5.35% 2.00% 3.84% 4.36%
2010 6.65% 1.84% 3.29% 5.20%
2011 7.72% 2.07% 1.88% 6.01%
2012 7.18% 2.13% 1.76% 5.78%
2013 5.81% 1.96% 3.04% 4.96%
2014 5.49% 1.92% 2.17% 5.78%
2015 5.20% 2.11% 2.27% 6.12%
2016 4.86% 2.01% 2.45% 5.69%
Page 29
Historical ERP
AnnualReturnsonInvestmentsin CompoundedValueof$100
Year S&P 500 3-month T.Bill 10-year T. Bond Stocks T.Bills
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% $ 143.81 $ 103.08
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% $ 131.88 $ 106.34
1930 -25.12% 4.55% 4.54% $ 98.75 $ 111.18
1931 -43.84% 2.31% -2.56% $ 55.46 $ 113.74
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79% $ 50.66 $ 114.96
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86% $ 75.99 $ 116.06
1934 -1.19% 0.32% 7.96% $ 75.09 $ 116.44
1935 46.74% 0.18% 4.47% $ 110.18 $ 116.64
1936 31.94% 0.17% 5.02% $ 145.38 $ 116.84
1937 -35.34% 0.30% 1.38% $ 94.00 $ 117.19
1938 29.28% 0.08% 4.21% $ 121.53 $ 117.29
1939 -1.10% 0.04% 4.41% $ 120.20 $ 117.33
1940 -10.67% 0.03% 5.40% $ 107.37 $ 117.36
1941 -12.77% 0.08% -2.02% $ 93.66 $ 117.46
1942 19.17% 0.34% 2.29% $ 111.61 $ 117.85
1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49% $ 139.59 $ 118.30
1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58% $ 166.15 $ 118.75
1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80% $ 225.67 $ 119.20
1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13% $ 206.65 $ 119.65
1947 5.20% 0.57% 0.92% $ 217.39 $ 120.33
1948 5.70% 1.02% 1.95% $ 229.79 $ 121.56
1949 18.30% 1.10% 4.66% $ 271.85 $ 122.90
1950 30.81% 1.17% 0.43% $ 355.60 $ 124.34
1951 23.68% 1.48% -0.30% $ 439.80 $ 126.18
1952 18.15% 1.67% 2.27% $ 519.62 $ 128.29
1953 -1.21% 1.89% 4.14% $ 513.35 $ 130.72
1954 52.56% 0.96% 3.29% $ 783.18 $ 131.98
1955 32.60% 1.66% -1.34% $ 1,038.47 $ 134.17
1956 7.44% 2.56% -2.26% $ 1,115.73 $ 137.60
1957 -10.46% 3.23% 6.80% $ 999.05 $ 142.04
1958 43.72% 1.78% -2.10% $ 1,435.84 $ 144.57
1959 12.06% 3.26% -2.65% $ 1,608.95 $ 149.27
1960 0.34% 3.05% 11.64% $ 1,614.37 $ 153.82
1961 26.64% 2.27% 2.06% $ 2,044.40 $ 157.30
1962 -8.81% 2.78% 5.69% $ 1,864.26 $ 161.67
1963 22.61% 3.11% 1.68% $ 2,285.80 $ 166.70
1964 16.42% 3.51% 3.73% $ 2,661.02 $ 172.54
1965 12.40% 3.90% 0.72% $ 2,990.97 $ 179.28
Page 30
Historical ERP
1966 -9.97% 4.84% 2.91% $ 2,692.74 $ 187.95

1967 23.80% 4.33% -1.58% $ 3,333.69 $ 196.10
1968 10.81% 5.26% 3.27% $ 3,694.23 $ 206.41
1969 -8.24% 6.56% -5.01% $ 3,389.77 $ 219.96
1970 3.56% 6.69% 16.75% $ 3,510.49 $ 234.66
1971 14.22% 4.54% 9.79% $ 4,009.72 $ 245.32
1972 18.76% 3.95% 2.82% $ 4,761.76 $ 255.01
1973 -14.31% 6.73% 3.66% $ 4,080.44 $ 272.16
1974 -25.90% 7.78% 1.99% $ 3,023.54 $ 293.33
1975 37.00% 5.99% 3.61% $ 4,142.10 $ 310.90
1976 23.83% 4.97% 15.98% $ 5,129.20 $ 326.35
1977 -6.98% 5.13% 1.29% $ 4,771.20 $ 343.09
1978 6.51% 6.93% -0.78% $ 5,081.77 $ 366.87
1979 18.52% 9.94% 0.67% $ 6,022.89 $ 403.33
1980 31.74% 11.22% -2.99% $ 7,934.26 $ 448.58
1981 -4.70% 14.30% 8.20% $ 7,561.16 $ 512.73
1982 20.42% 11.01% 32.81% $ 9,105.08 $ 569.18
1983 22.34% 8.45% 3.20% $ 11,138.90 $ 617.26
1984 6.15% 9.61% 13.73% $ 11,823.51 $ 676.60
1985 31.24% 7.49% 25.71% $ 15,516.60 $ 727.26
1986 18.49% 6.04% 24.28% $ 18,386.33 $ 771.15
1987 5.81% 5.72% -4.96% $ 19,455.08 $ 815.27
1988 16.54% 6.45% 8.22% $ 22,672.40 $ 867.86
1989 31.48% 8.11% 17.69% $ 29,808.58 $ 938.24
1990 -3.06% 7.55% 6.24% $ 28,895.11 $ 1,009.08
1991 30.23% 5.61% 15.00% $ 37,631.51 $ 1,065.69
1992 7.49% 3.41% 9.36% $ 40,451.51 $ 1,101.98
1993 9.97% 2.98% 14.21% $ 44,483.33 $ 1,134.84
1994 1.33% 3.99% -8.04% $ 45,073.14 $ 1,180.07
1995 37.20% 5.52% 23.48% $ 61,838.19 $ 1,245.15
1996 22.68% 5.02% 1.43% $ 75,863.69 $ 1,307.68
1997 33.10% 5.05% 9.94% $ 100,977.34 $ 1,373.76
1998 28.34% 4.73% 14.92% $ 129,592.25 $ 1,438.70
1999 20.89% 4.51% -8.25% $ 156,658.05 $ 1,503.58
2000 -9.03% 5.76% 16.66% $ 142,508.98 $ 1,590.23
2001 -11.85% 3.67% 5.57% $ 125,622.01 $ 1,648.63
2002 -21.97% 1.66% 15.12% $ 98,027.82 $ 1,675.96
2003 28.36% 1.03% 0.38% $ 125,824.39 $ 1,693.22
2004 10.74% 1.23% 4.49% $ 139,341.42 $ 1,714.00
2005 4.83% 3.01% 2.87% $ 146,077.85 $ 1,765.59
Page 31
Historical ERP
2006 15.61% 4.68% 1.96% $ 168,884.34 $ 1,848.18

2007 5.48% 4.64% 10.21% $ 178,147.20 $ 1,933.98
2008 -36.55% 1.59% 20.10% $ 113,030.22 $ 1,964.64
2009 25.94% 0.14% -11.12% $ 142,344.87 $ 1,967.29
2010 14.82% 0.13% 8.46% $ 163,441.94 $ 1,969.84
2011 2.10% 0.03% 16.04% $ 166,871.56 $ 1,970.44
2012 15.89% 0.05% 2.97% $ 193,388.43 $ 1,971.42
2013 32.15% 0.07% -9.10% $ 255,553.31 $ 1,972.72
2014 13.48% 0.05% 10.75% $ 289,995.13 $ 1,973.77
2015 1.36% 0.21% 1.28% $ 294,060.84 $ 1,977.91
2016 11.74% 0.51% 0.69% $ 328,584.46 $ 1,988.00
Page 32
Historical ERP
dedValueof$100
T.Bonds Stocks - Bills Stocks - Bonds Historical risk premium
$ 100.84 40.73% 42.98%
$ 105.07 -11.46% -12.50%
$ 109.85 -29.67% -29.66%
$ 107.03 -46.15% -41.28%
$ 116.44 -9.71% -17.43%
$ 118.60 49.02% 48.13%
$ 128.05 -1.51% -9.15%
$ 133.78 46.57% 42.27%
$ 140.49 31.77% 26.93%
$ 142.43 -35.64% -36.72%
$ 148.43 29.21% 25.07%
$ 154.98 -1.14% -5.51%
$ 163.35 -10.70% -16.08%
$ 160.04 -12.85% -10.75%
$ 163.72 18.84% 16.88%
$ 167.79 24.68% 22.57%
$ 172.12 18.65% 16.45%
$ 178.67 35.44% 32.02%
$ 184.26 -8.81% -11.56%
$ 185.95 4.63% 4.28%
$ 189.58 4.68% 3.75%
$ 198.42 17.20% 13.64%
$ 199.27 29.63% 30.38%
$ 198.68 22.20% 23.97%
$ 203.19 16.48% 15.88%
$ 211.61 -3.10% -5.35%
$ 218.57 51.60% 49.27%
$ 215.65 30.94% 33.93%
$ 210.79 4.88% 9.70%
$ 225.11 -13.69% -17.25%
$ 220.39 41.94% 45.82%
$ 214.56 8.80% 14.70%
$ 239.53 -2.71% -11.30% 6.11%
$ 244.46 24.37% 24.58% 6.62%
$ 258.38 -11.59% -14.51% 5.97%
$ 262.74 19.50% 20.93% 6.36%
$ 272.53 12.91% 12.69% 6.53%
$ 274.49 8.50% 11.68% 6.66%
Page 33
Historical ERP
$ 282.47 -14.81% -12.88% 6.11%

$ 278.01 19.47% 25.38% 6.57%
$ 287.11 5.55% 7.54% 6.60%
$ 272.71 -14.80% -3.23% 6.33%
$ 318.41 -3.12% -13.19% 5.90%
$ 349.57 9.68% 4.43% 5.87%
$ 359.42 14.80% 15.94% 6.08%
$ 372.57 -21.03% -17.97% 5.50%
$ 379.98 -33.68% -27.89% 4.64%
$ 393.68 31.01% 33.39% 5.17%
$ 456.61 18.86% 7.85% 5.22%
$ 462.50 -12.11% -8.27% 4.93%
$ 458.90 -0.42% 7.29% 4.97%
$ 461.98 8.58% 17.85% 5.21%
$ 448.17 20.52% 34.72% 5.73%
$ 484.91 -19.00% -12.90% 5.37%
$ 644.04 9.41% -12.40% 5.10%
$ 664.65 13.89% 19.14% 5.34%
$ 755.92 -3.47% -7.59% 5.12%
$ 950.29 23.75% 5.52% 5.13%
$ 1,181.06 12.46% -5.79% 4.97%
$ 1,122.47 0.09% 10.77% 5.07%
$ 1,214.78 10.09% 8.31% 5.12%
$ 1,429.72 23.37% 13.78% 5.24%
$ 1,518.87 -10.61% -9.30% 5.00%
$ 1,746.77 24.62% 15.23% 5.14%
$ 1,910.30 4.09% -1.87% 5.03%
$ 2,181.77 6.98% -4.24% 4.90%
$ 2,006.43 -2.66% 9.36% 4.97%
$ 2,477.55 31.68% 13.71% 5.08%
$ 2,512.94 17.66% 21.25% 5.30%
$ 2,762.71 28.05% 23.16% 5.53%
$ 3,174.95 23.61% 13.42% 5.63%
$ 2,912.88 16.38% 29.14% 5.96%
$ 3,398.03 -14.79% -25.69% 5.51%
$ 3,587.37 -15.52% -17.42% 5.17%
$ 4,129.65 -23.62% -37.08% 4.53%
$ 4,145.15 27.33% 27.98% 4.82%
$ 4,331.30 9.52% 6.25% 4.84%
$ 4,455.50 1.82% 1.97% 4.80%
Page 34
Historical ERP
$ 4,542.87 10.94% 13.65% 4.91%

$ 5,006.69 0.84% -4.73% 4.79%
$ 6,013.10 -38.14% -56.65% 3.88%
$ 5,344.65 25.80% 37.05% 4.29%
$ 5,796.96 14.69% 6.36% 4.31%
$ 6,726.52 2.07% -13.94% 4.10%
$ 6,926.40 15.84% 12.92% 4.20%
$ 6,295.79 32.08% 41.25% 4.62%
$ 6,972.34 13.42% 2.73% 4.60%
$ 7,061.89 1.15% 0.08% 4.54%
$ 7,110.65 11.23% 11.05% 4.62%
Page 35
T.Bond vs Nominal growth
Year end Ten-year T.Bo Inflation rate Real GDP gro Fundamental T
r. Bond - Fun
1954 2.51% -0.37% 2.79% 2.41% 0.10%
1955 2.96% 0.37% 6.57% 6.95% -3.99%
1956 3.59% 2.83% 1.84% 4.67% -1.08%
1957 3.21% 3.04% 0.27% 3.31% -0.10%
1958 3.86% 1.76% 2.52% 4.27% -0.41%
1959 4.69% 1.52% 4.84% 6.36% -1.67%
1960 3.84% 1.36% 0.63% 1.99% 1.85%
1961 4.06% 0.67% 6.25% 6.92% -2.86%
1962 3.86% 1.23% 4.12% 5.35% -1.49%
1963 4.13% 1.65% 5.30% 6.95% -2.82%
1964 4.18% 1.20% 5.11% 6.31% -2.13%
1965 4.62% 1.92% 8.51% 10.43% -5.81%
1966 4.84% 3.36% 4.31% 7.67% -2.83%
1967 5.70% 3.28% 2.48% 5.76% -0.06%
1968 6.03% 4.71% 4.96% 9.66% -3.63%
1969 7.65% 5.90% 2.03% 7.93% -0.28%
1970 6.39% 5.57% -0.15% 5.42% 0.97%
1971 5.93% 3.27% 4.46% 7.72% -1.79%
1972 6.36% 3.41% 6.93% 10.34% -3.98%
1973 6.74% 8.94% 4.17% 13.12% -6.38%
1974 7.43% 12.10% -1.99% 10.10% -2.67%
1975 8.00% 7.13% 2.54% 9.67% -1.67%
1976 6.87% 5.04% 4.30% 9.33% -2.46%
1977 7.69% 6.68% 4.99% 11.67% -3.98%
1978 9.01% 8.99% 6.71% 15.69% -6.68%
1979 10.39% 13.25% 1.26% 14.51% -4.12%
1980 12.84% 12.35% -0.10% 12.25% 0.59%
1981 13.72% 8.91% 1.22% 10.13% 3.59%
1982 10.54% 3.83% -1.41% 2.41% 8.13%
1983 11.83% 3.79% 7.74% 11.53% 0.30%
1984 11.50% 4.04% 5.56% 9.60% 1.90%
1985 9.26% 3.79% 4.17% 7.96% 1.30%
1986 7.11% 1.19% 2.84% 4.03% 3.08%
1987 8.99% 4.33% 4.26% 8.59% 0.40%
1988 9.11% 4.41% 3.70% 8.11% 1.00%
1989 7.84% 4.64% 2.72% 7.36% 0.48%
1990 8.08% 6.25% 0.56% 6.81% 1.27%
1991 7.09% 2.98% 1.00% 3.99% 3.10%
1992 6.77% 2.97% 4.31% 7.28% -0.51%
1993 5.77% 2.81% 2.69% 5.51% 0.26%
1994 7.81% 2.60% 4.16% 6.76% 1.05%
1995 5.71% 2.53% 2.01% 4.54% 1.17%
1996 6.30% 3.38% 4.45% 7.82% -1.52%
1997 5.81% 1.70% 4.34% 6.04% -0.23%
1998 4.65% 1.61% 4.98% 6.59% -1.94%
Page 36
1999 6.28% 2.68% 4.82% 7.50% -1.22%

2000 5.24% 3.44% 2.91% 6.35% -1.11%
2001 5.09% 1.60% 0.40% 2.00% 3.09%
2002 4.03% 2.48% 1.94% 4.42% -0.39%
2003 4.27% 2.04% 3.87% 5.90% -1.63%
2004 4.23% 3.34% 2.90% 6.24% -2.01%
2005 4.47% 3.34% 2.81% 6.15% -1.68%
2006 4.56% 2.52% 2.38% 4.90% -0.34%
2007 4.10% 4.11% 2.21% 6.31% -2.21%
2008 2.42% -0.02% -3.32% -3.34% 5.76%
2009 3.59% 2.82% -0.08% 2.74% 0.85%
2010 3.29% 1.43% 2.39% 3.82% -0.53%
2011 1.98% 3.02% 1.97% 5.00% -3.02%
2012 1.72% 1.76% 1.67% 3.43% -1.71%
1954-2012 6.11% 3.75% 3.08% 6.83% -0.72%
1954-1980 5.83% 4.49% 3.54% 8.03% -2.20%
1981-2012 6.35% 3.13% 2.69% 5.83% 0.52%
Page 37
Next 5 years
4.32%
5.11%
4.12%
4.57%
4.98%
5.51%
5.50%
7.19%
7.34%
7.43%
7.97%
8.29%
7.29%
7.30%
8.21%
8.90%
9.34%
10.19%
10.51%
10.78%
11.29%
12.18%
12.69%
12.85%
11.00%
10.17%
9.19%
8.33%
7.11%
8.34%
7.66%
7.21%
6.98%
6.97%
6.71%
6.19%
6.07%
5.61%
6.38%
6.13%
6.35%
6.50%
6.86%
5.69%
5.37%
Page 38
5.23%
4.98%
4.94%
5.52%
5.90%
4.05%
3.35%
2.89%
2.91%
Page 39
S&P 500 Monthly Data (Cap IQ)
This is what I get from S&P Capital IQ, if I use the raw data from individual companies. It does not
Trailing 12 Aggregate (in US dollars)
month
ending S&P 500 IndeMarket Cap Dividends Buybacks
1-Aug-15 2103.84 $19,712,475 $ 263,808 $ 423,600
1-Oct-15 1920.03 $17,981,669 $ 357,140 $ 558,052
1-Nov-15 2079.36 $19,353,110 $ 252,069 $ 416,930
1-Dec-15 2080.41 $ 19,361,440 $ 373,740 $ 567,962
1-Jan-16 2043.94 19,205,383 373472.9 $ 569,620
1-Feb-16 1940.24 17972170.6 277933 $ 459,600
1-Mar-16 1932.23 17910494 345472 $ 552,312
1-Apr-16 2059.74 19126109.5 371205 $ 578,442
1-May-16 2065.3 19123581 286307 $ 470,983
1-Jun-16 2096.96 19336209 371249 $ 594,591
1-Jul-16 2098.96 19075239 373707 $ 597,633
1-Sep-16 2170.95 19933639 381368 593239.9
1-Oct-16 2168.27 19917170 367339 $ 588,442
1-Nov-16 2126.41 19516057 277522 $ 451,147
1-Dec-16 2198.81 20107276 369422.5 554869.3
1-Jan-17 2238.83 20443576.6 369180 $ 543,217
1-Feb-17 2278.87 20818728.3 252496 $ 372,491
1-Mar-17
1-Apr-17 2362.72 21572562.3 374015.1 $ 537,011
1-May-17
1-Jun-17 2430.06 22209214 364899.1 $ 508,712
1-Jul-17 2423.41 22121323.8 365895 509083
1-Aug-17 2470.3 22519701.2 289134 $ 411,244
1-Sep-17 2417.65 22448306.6 371495 507930
1-Oct-17 2519.36 22902823 374400 $ 501,871
Page 40
ividual companies. It does not match up to what S&P itelf reports once every quarter. Use it to look for trend
Aggregate (in US dollars)
Stock Issues Net Income Cash Return Net Cash Ret Index Units
$ 75,426 $ 923,972 $ 687,408 $611,982 ###
$ 99,552 $ 907,379 $ 915,192 $657,604 ###
$ 83,536 $ 882,624 $ 668,999 $500,466 ###
$ 110,058 $ 881,259 $ 941,702 ### ###
$ 108,973 $ 882,415 $ 943,093 ### ###
$ 84,612 $ 827,436 $ 737,533 $544,212 ###
$ 86,105 $ 842,836 $ 897,784 $638,417 ###
$ 101,550 $ 845,698 $ 949,647 $679,992 ###
$ 86,635 $ 835,997 $ 757,290 $557,618 ###
$ 96,361 $ 848,108 $ 965,840 $690,952 ###
$ 95,895 $ 848,045 $ 971,340 $693,528 ###
$ 85,132 $ 843,244 $ 974,608 $678,372 ###
$ 89,369 $ 847,378 $ 955,781 $677,811 ###
$ 78,524 $ 846,267 $ 728,669 $529,671 ###
$ 86,206 $ 872,851 $ 924,292 $641,075 ###
$ 85,882 $ 872,102 $ 912,397 $629,099 ###
$ 87,186 $ 906,789 $ 624,987 $459,677 ###
$ 89,251 $ 926,091 $ 911,026 $626,262 ###
$ 85,032 $ 955,904 $ 873,611 $593,744 ###

85031 963795 $ 874,978 $594,114 ###
$ 66,289 $ 989,342 $ 700,378 $477,533 ###
81741 987268 $ 879,425 $589,671 ###
$ 82,365 $ 989,591 $ 876,271 $584,236 ###
Page 41
quarter. Use it to look for trend lines.

In Index Units
Market Cap Dividends Buybacks Stock Issues Net Income Cash Return
2103.84 $28.16 $45.21 $8.05 $98.61 $73.36
1920.03 $38.13 $59.59 $10.63 $96.89 $97.72
2079.36 $27.08 $44.80 $8.98 $94.83 $71.88
2080.41 $40.16 $61.03 $11.83 $94.69 $101.19
2043.94 $39.75 $60.62 $11.60 $93.91 $100.37
1940.24 $30.01 $49.62 $9.13 $89.33 $79.62
1932.23 $37.27 $59.58 $9.29 $90.93 $96.86
2059.74 $39.98 $62.29 $10.94 $91.08 $102.27
2065.30 $30.92 $50.87 $9.36 $90.29 $81.79
2096.96 $40.26 $64.48 $10.45 $91.98 $104.74
2098.96 $41.12 $65.76 $10.55 $93.32 $106.88
2170.95 $41.53 $64.61 $9.27 $91.84 $106.14
2168.27 $39.99 $64.06 $9.73 $92.25 $104.05
2126.41 $30.24 $49.16 $8.56 $92.21 $79.39
2198.81 $40.40 $60.68 $9.43 $95.45 $101.07
2238.83 $40.43 $59.49 $9.41 $95.51 $99.92
2278.87 $27.64 $40.77 $9.54 $99.26 $68.41
2362.72 $40.96 $58.82 $9.78 $101.43 $99.78
2430.06 $39.93 $55.66 $9.30 $104.59 $95.59

2423.41 $40.08 $55.77 $9.32 $105.58 $95.85
2470.30 $31.72 $45.11 $7.27 $108.53 $76.83
2417.65 $40.01 $54.70 $8.80 $106.33 $94.71
2519.36 $41.18 $55.21 $9.06 $108.86 $96.39
Page 42
Net Cash Ret Payout Ratio Dividend Yiel Cash Return/ Net Cash Return/Net Income
$65.31 28.55% 1.34% 74.40% 66.23%
$70.22 39.36% 1.99% 100.86% 72.47%
$53.77 28.56% 1.30% 75.80% 56.70%
$72.85 42.41% 1.93% 106.86% 76.94%
$72.22 42.32% 1.94% 106.88% 76.90%
$58.75 33.59% 1.55% 89.13% 65.77%
$68.87 40.99% 1.93% 106.52% 75.75%
$73.23 43.89% 1.94% 112.29% 80.41%
$60.22 34.25% 1.50% 90.59% 66.70%
$74.93 43.77% 1.92% 113.88% 81.47%
$76.31 44.07% 1.96% 114.54% 81.78%
$73.88 45.23% 1.91% 115.58% 80.45%
$73.79 43.35% 1.84% 112.79% 79.99%
$57.71 32.79% 1.42% 86.10% 62.59%
$70.10 42.32% 1.84% 105.89% 73.45%
$68.89 42.33% 1.81% 104.62% 72.14%
$50.32 27.85% 1.21% 68.92% 50.69%
$68.59 40.39% 1.73% 98.37% 67.62%
$64.97 38.17% 1.64% 91.39% 62.11%

$65.09 37.96% 1.65% 90.78% 61.64%
$52.38 29.22% 1.28% 70.79% 48.27%
$63.51 37.63% 1.65% 89.08% 59.73%
$64.27 37.83% 1.63% 88.55% 59.04%
Page 43
Net Income
Page 44
Sheet9
Yes/No
Yes
No
Page 45

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Impl premium calculator

Implied Risk Premium Calculator

ImpliedRiskPremiumincurrentlevelofIndex= 4.92% (GounderToolsandchooseSolverorGoalSeek:Seebelow)

S&P Cap IQ update 108.86 41.18 55.21

Stock Cash to Net Cash to Dividend Gross Cash

9.06 96.39 87.33

quarter on March 15, June 15, Sept 15 and Dec 15)

Updated October 1, 2017

P update every three quarters)

start of every quarter Last updated 1-Oct-17

Book Value of Inflation

Updated at the start of every mo

Updated at the start of every quarter Last updated 1-Oct-17

dated at the start of every month Last updated 1-Jul-17

1-Jun-12 1310 1.55% 66.29 74.07

1-Apr-16 2060 1.77% 108.35 108.16

Expected growth ERP (T12 m with sustainable

74.24 5.32% 5.15% 6.24%

ERP (Net Cash

6.01% Normalized Cash flow = Average CF yield

6.23% 4.30% 5.62% Updated cash flow

ws and expected growth rate

rate & cash flows

ws, growth rate

ws, growth rate

zed and ten-year yield numbers

Bottom up Estimates (Post-election)

Sources for bottom up estimates

Sources for top down estimates

Top down Estimates (Consensus, post election)

Top Down (Pre-Election)

Year Earnings Yield Dividend Yield T.Bond Rate Implied ERP

2005 5.47% 1.79% 4.39% 4.08%

1966 -9.97% 4.84% 2.91% $ 2,692.74 $ 187.95

2006 15.61% 4.68% 1.96% $ 168,884.34 $ 1,848.18

$ 282.47 -14.81% -12.88% 6.11%

$ 4,542.87 10.94% 13.65% 4.91%

1999 6.28% 2.68% 4.82% 7.50% -1.22%

$ 89,251 $ 926,091 $ 911,026 $626,262 ###

$ 85,032 $ 955,904 $ 873,611 $593,744 ###

quarter. Use it to look for trend lines.

2362.72 $40.96 $58.82 $9.78 $101.43 $99.78

2430.06 $39.93 $55.66 $9.30 $104.59 $95.59

$68.59 40.39% 1.73% 98.37% 67.62%

$64.97 38.17% 1.64% 91.39% 62.11%

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