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BY ANDREW PAPACOSTAS
12 Lakeside Drive, Burwood East, Victoria 3151
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1. INTRODUCTION
I have been requested by HWL Ebsworth Lawyers on behalf of VicRoads, to provide an expert
opinion report in relation to the impact that the Stockman Base Metals Project (Project)
generated traffic will have on various lengths of pavements located on Benambra Road, Omeo
Highway and the Great Alpine Road.
I am currently the VicRoads Principal Advisor Pavement, Geotech. & Materials. In this and
previous roles I have been responsible for providing VicRoads with independent technical
advice relating to pavement technology issues.
3. SUMMARY OF OPINIONS
In relation to the impact that the Project generated traffic loading is expected to have on
pavement condition and deterioration, the AECOM and Independence Group reports provided
little detail. Traffic data sourced from the AECOM report, combined with an understanding of
existing pavement composition and utilising appropriate Austroads and VicRoads publications,
indicates that traffic generated from the Stockman Base Metals Project will:
Further investigation to predict the extent and severity of pavement distress and when it is likely
to occur is required. A detailed site inspection is also recommended.
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4. BACKGROUND
The Stockman Base Metals Project is proposing to recommission the abandoned Wilga
underground mine and develop the Currawong underground mine located 19 km south east of
Benambra. Ore product will be extracted to produce concentrates of zinc and copper. The
concentrates are to be transported by road on B-double trucks to the Port of Geelong. It is
proposed to extract 9 Mt of ore, producing copper and zinc concentrate at a rate of
approximately 150,000 tonnes per annum over a nine year operating life.
In relation to the assessment of pavement condition and the impacts of Project generated traffic
loading, the Independence and AECOM reports provide very little discussion. This observation
is supported by the report by Sinclair Knight Merz Stockman Project Review of Roads, Traffic
and Transport Technical Report November 2013 that notes, The AECOM report provides very
little commentary on road deterioration and appears to be limited to seal and pavement.
Information relating to traffic volumes (current and predicted) and the heavy vehicle type
expected to be used in the cartage of concentrates was sourced from the Independence and
AECOM reports. This information has been used to assist in the determination of pavement,
current and predicted, traffic loadings.
6.1 General
Assessments of traffic loading and impact on pavements have been undertaken where
appropriate, in accordance with:
Austroads (2013) is used nationally as the guiding document to pavement design. VicRoads
(2013) supplements Austroads (2013) and provides specific detail relating to the design of
pavements in Victoria.
A key factor affecting pavement depth and composition is traffic loading. As traffic loading
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increases, the required pavement depth increases and so does the need to use higher quality
pavement material.
Traffic loading is applied to a pavement by a wide range of vehicle types e.g. bicycle, cars,
trucks etc. Light vehicles such as bikes, cars and vans do not contribute significantly to the
structural deterioration of a pavement and only heavy (commercial) vehicles are considered in
pavement evaluation and design.
In order to assess the damaging effect from the range of heavy vehicle types and load that will
traffic the pavement, axle groups are converted into Equivalent Standard Axles (ESA). That is
the numbers of loads of different magnitude are converted to an equivalent number of loads of a
standard magnitude. A Standard Axle is 8.2 t on a single axle dual tyre.
Table 1 shows for typical axle group types, the load required to be carried for that axle group
type and load configuration to cause the same damaging effect as one Standard Axle.
Table 1 Loads on axle groups which cause same damage as Standard Axle
Axle Group Type Standard Load (kN)
Single axle with single tyre 53
Single axle with dual tyres) 80
Tandem axle with dual tyres 135
Tri-axle with dual tyres 181
Quad-axle with dual tyres 221
Source Austroads (2012)
As an example, 181 KN (18.4 t) on a tri-axle with dual tyres does the same damage as a 80kN
(8.2t) on a single axle with dual tyres.
As the actual loads carried by heavy vehicles vary, a method for determining the damaging
effect from these vehicles is required. Pavement damage follows an exponential relationship
and the ESA for each axle group can be determined by:
ESA = (L/SL)4
Therefore, any load and axle combination can be converted into ESA. This allows the total ESA
for any traffic volume and analysis period to be determined.
In sourcing traffic data the predicted traffic volumes provided in the Independence and AECOM
reports appeared to lack consistency. The AECOM report, specifically Section 5.3.3 was used
as the basis of predicted volumes generated during the Project operation phase. That is:
The ESA for a legally fully loaded B - double and semi trailer (with road friendly suspensions
and Higher Mass Limit) have been calculated to be 6.35 (illustrated in Table 2) and 4.96,
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respectively, based on procedures provided by Austroads (2012).
Actual Permitted
6 17 22.5 22.5
Axle Load (t)
1
RFS & HML
0 0.5 2.5 2.5
Concessions (t)
Load for ESA
Determination
(t) 6 16.5 20 20
2
(kN) (58.86) (161.87) (196.20) (196.20)
4 4 4 4
ESA per Axle (58.86/53) (161.87/135) (196.20/181) 196.20/181)
Group (with RFS = = = =
& HML) 1.52 2.07 1.38 1.38
Total ESA 1.52+2.07+1.38+1.38
Table 3 provides an assessment of the yearly traffic loading in ESA based on current and
predicted traffic volumes. In assessing the ESA generated by the additional heavy vehicles,
only the Project operation phase was considered.
To determine the loading from current heavy vehicles requires an estimation of the ESA per
heavy. VicRoads (2013) indicates that for a rural arterial the average ESA per heavy vehicle
varies from 1.4 to 2.6. In the absence of more accurate heavy vehicle axle and load data, it is
assumed for the affected pavements there is on average 2 ESA per heavy vehicle. This is the
midpoint of the range of 1.4 to 2.6 and considered a reasonable representation of the mix of
heavy vehicles (logging and livestock trucks, general goods etc.) currently using the affected
pavements.
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Table 3 Current and Predicted Traffic Loading
Road Existing Existing Additional Total ESA Approximate
Daily Yearly Yearly First Year % Increase In
3 4
Traffic ESA ESA of Project Yearly
1
(2 Way) Operation ESA
Benambra Rd
2 4 5
(Omeo Hwy To 247 (14) 1.3 x 10 1.1 x 10 750
Benambra)
Omeo Hwy 4 5
405 (25) 3.7 x 10 1.3 x 10 260
(Omeo To Benambra Rd)
4
Great Alpine Rd 4 9.7 x 10 5
576 (26) 5.5 x 10 1.5 x 10 180
(Omeo To Ensay)
Great Alpine Rd 4 5
820 (18) 5.4 x 10 1.5 x 10 180
(Ensay To Bruthen)
Great Alpine Rd 5 5
3484 (18) 2.3 x 10 3.3 x 10 40
(Bruthen To Bairnsdale)
Notes to Table 3
1. Source Table E3 Independence Report except Heavy Vehicle (HV) % based on data provided from Appendix D AECOM
Report.
2. Figures in brackets are %HV.
3. Average ESA per HV - Source VicRoads (2013) Table B4. Calculation based on Traffic Volume x %HV x 0.5 (2 /1 way
factor) x 365 (days/yr) x 2.0 (average ESA/HV)
4. Yearly ESA = ((27+8 No. B-doubles ) x 6.35 + (9 No. semi trailer x 4.96)) x 365
As indicated in Table 3, pavements currently carrying low volumes of traffic are predicted to
experience a dramatic increase in loading (ESA) e.g. Benambra Rd increases by 750%, for the
first year of the Project operation. Omeo Hwy is predicted to have an increase of 260%, the
Great Alpine Rd north and south of Bruthen 180% and 40% respectively.
Generally for heavily trafficked pavements, such as those located along the Princes Highway
East, and to a lesser extent the Great Alpine Road south of Bruthen, the impact of the additional
loading associated with the Project would be significantly less as the increase in loading is
relatively small when compared to the current traffic loading. However, for lightly trafficked
pavements the effect of the increased loading can be significant.
To assist in quantifying the impact that the additional traffic loading may have on pavement
structural requires a comparison of current pavement thickness and required pavement
thickness.
VicRoads Eastern Region advises that existing pavements are 280 to 300 mm thickness. Table
4 provides the required depths for the predicted traffic loading based on a 9 year (stated
operational life of the Project) analysis period. Based on Austroads (2012) the required design
thickness varies between 390 mm for Benambra Rd to 440 mm for the Great Alpine Rd south of
Bruthen. This suggests that in order to carry the predicted loading the existing pavements
require significant strengthening by the addition of granular material. Without the additional
material, pavement structural defects in the form of shape loss and rutting are expected. Note,
the pavement depth deficiency is based on an assumed subgrade strength (foundation
support) of CBR 5%. This is an over simplification of the subgrade support provided along the
length of the affected roads. Actual subgrade CBR may be higher or lower.
The above analysis compares pavement depth requirements of a new pavement against
current pavement depths, however the existing pavements may already be structurally
inadequate to carry future traffic even without the additional Project generated loading. An
alternative method of assessment is to determine the increase in pavement depth required
(strengthening requirement) to maintain current structural condition. Table 4 indicates that 85
mm of granular material is required along Benambra Rd, 40 to 50 mm for Omeo Hwy and the
Great Alpine Rd north of Bruthen. Strengthening requirements for the Great Alpine Road south
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of Bruthen are negligible. A more accurate assessment of pavement depth requirements can be
derived through pavement strength (deflection) testing.
Benambra Road and Omeo Highway are classified by VicRoads as C Roads whilst the Great
Alpine Road is classified as a B Road. As Class C and B roads, they are expected to carry
significantly less traffic than Class A roads e.g. Princes Hwy East, and hence their pavement
structure tends to reflect the required load carrying capacity. Class A roads would generally
have thicker pavements and consist of higher quality pavement materials.
It is highly likely that Benambra Road, Omeo Highway and the Great Alpine Road pavements
have been progressively strengthened over time in response to increasing traffic loading. The
pavements reportedly consist of local granular materials. These materials, often referred to as
marginal or non standard, may not meet current pavement material quality requirements. They
are generally fit for purpose if maintained in a dry state and not used beyond their loading
carrying capacity. However, they become increasingly more susceptible to damage as traffic
loading increases, moreso in the presence of moisture. Therefore, the outcomes of the analysis
shown in Table 4 may be understating the impact of the additional Project loading.
The use of the ESA approach to assess pavement structural requirements only allows one
type of damage to be considered, that is overall deterioration of the pavement reflecting
increased levels of roughness and rutting. It does not take into account the following:
i) Pavement seal edge break (Figure 1) resulting from the trafficking of the sealed pavement
/ unsealed shoulder interface. Associated with edge break is shoulder wear, moisture
ingress and localised failure (Figures 2 and 3) of the pavement. The likelihood of edge
break increases for narrow seal widths and for inside of curves where trafficking from
heavy vehicles is more likely.
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Figure 1 Edge Break Figure 2 -Shoving of pavement
Figure 3 Localised pavement failures with shape loss and potholes evident
ii) The impact of increased heavy vehicle volumes and loading on the existing sprayed seal
surfacing which is expected to result in an increase in the extent of flushing (Figure 4).
Flushing is defined as a pavement surface defect in which the binder is near the top of the
surfacing aggregate resulting in minimal surface texture. In severe cases, the bitumen
covers the aggregate. An increase in flushing will lead to a reduction in skid resistance
and therefore increase the likelihood of vehicle loss of control accidents.
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iii) The effect of shear forces applied to the pavement (during acceleration and braking) or
load transfer from the one side of the vehicle to the other as vehicles traverse tight curves
etc. These high stress areas are expected to have an increased incidence of pavement
distress.
Predicting the extent and severity of pavement and surfacing distress resulting from the above
is problematic, particularly for Item i). With respect to Item ii) a method to determine the
potential extent of flushed surfacing can be developed based on an understanding (type,
location) of sealing works undertaken over the last 5 years. For the purpose of the evaluation, it
may be assumed the design and application of any recently applied sprayed seal resurfacing
was based on predicted traffic volumes lower than that associated with the Project operations.
Therefore, these areas are likely to have excess bitumen for the higher traffic volumes and
therefore be susceptible to flushing.
The likelihood of flushing increase on areas of acceleration and braking e.g. steep grades, short
radius curves, largely due to the increased horizontal loading imposed during these types of
manoeuvres. The small radius curves are of particular concern due to the increased shear
loading that will be induced by the tri-axle groups which may result in the aggregate particles
rolling over and exposing fresh binder potentially resulting in pick up (removal) of the seal
(Figure 5).
The sprayed seal age and weather are key elements in the likelihood of the above issues
occurring. The risk reduces with the age of the seal as the binder oxidises and begins to
harden, but increases during periods of hot weather when the binder is at its softest. Further
increasing the risk of flushing is that at lower traffic volumes the design binder rates are higher
making the sprayed seal more susceptible to traffic variations (increases) noting that generally
binder application rates decrease as traffic volumes increase.
In addition, whilst the existing surfacing is expected to be adversely affected by the additional
trafficking, the type of sprayed sealed used in future resurfacing will also be affected.
A sprayed seal consists of a thin layer of binder sprayed onto a pavement surface with a layer
of aggregate incorporated and which is impervious to water. The seal may contain more than
one application of binder and/or aggregate. In addition, the binder may consist of conventional
Class 170 bitumen or Polymer Modified Binder (PMB). PMB may also have various
concentrations of polymer. There are numerous other types of sprayed seals used to address
specific issues e.g. pavement cracking.
The selection and design of a sprayed seal depends on numerous factors including, traffic
volume and composition of traffic, climate, topography, vertical and horizontal alignment,
existing pavement condition etc. Generally, conventional sprayed seals placed over existing
pavements, which are in sound condition, would consist of Class 170 binder and an application
of aggregate, referred to as a single/single (s/s) sprayed seal. Multiple application seals are
generally described in sequence of application of binder and aggregate. A double/double (d/d)
sprayed seal is two applications of binder and two applications of aggregate. A single/double
(s/d) is a single application of binder and a double application of aggregate.
Increases in traffic volumes will require more robust sprayed seals to be used moreso in
stressful locations e.g. steep grades, small radius curves etc. Guidance on the impact of traffic
on sprayed seal type is provided by Austroads (2013). A summary of the possible changes are
provided in Appendix A. The impact is more pronounced for pavements of low traffic volumes.
Note, the cost of sprayed seals incorporating PMB rather than Class 170 bitumen and/or
multiple application of binder and/or aggregate will be more costly than the conventional Class
170 s/s sprayed seal. In some locations asphalt may be required. A more detail estimate of the
impacts of the additional loading can be determined through site inspections and detailed
design.
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7. PREDICTING PAVEMENT DETERIORATION AND COSTS
Section 6 discussed the impact that the additional Project generated traffic loading may have on
pavement performance. An assessment of pavement structural deficiency has been provided in
addition to the possible impact on the existing pavement surfacing. Whilst it is difficult to predict
to what extent and severity pavement distress such as potholes, edge breaks etc. will become
evident over the next 9 years that can be attributed to Project operations traffic, it is clear that
the Project loading will accelerate pavement distress moreso where there is a significant
increase in traffic loading. This is expected to lead to:
increase in routine maintenance;
increased the frequency of periodic resurfacing; and
the need for earlier pavement rehabilitation.
Items ii) and iii) were discussed in Sections 6.3 and 6.4 respectively.
In addition, Austroads (2012) noted that if funds required to rehabilitate pavements are not
available, at an earlier time, traffic loading increases may lead to:
- more frequent resealing or higher quality reseals used to reduce increases in routine
maintenance costs due to the higher rate of surface deterioration
- higher quality reseals or alterative surfacings (e.g. asphalt) used in locations
(intersections, grades and curves) where higher axle loads cause increased surface
wear
- increases in road user costs and discomfort due to increases in pavement roughness
which increase vehicle operating costs and travel time, and cause additional delay costs
due to more frequent repair works
- more extensive and costly rehabilitation works.
8. SUMMARY
To assess the impact on pavement along sections of various lengths of Benambra Road, Omeo
Highway and the Great Alpine Road, arising from the traffic loading generated from the
Stockman Base Metals Project the following reports were reviewed:
In relation to pavement condition and deterioration, the AECOM and Independence Group
reports provide little detail. Traffic data sourced from the AECOM report, combined with an
understanding of existing pavement composition and utilising appropriate Austroads and
VicRoads publications, indicates that traffic generated from the Stockman Base Metals Project
will:
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- increase the likelihood of flushing of existing sprayed seal surfacing necessitating the need
for treatments to address skid resistance deficiencies;
- impact on the type of future sprayed seal treatment required.
Further investigation to predict the extent and severity of pavement distress and when it is likely
to occur is required. A detailed site inspection is also recommended.
9. DECLARATION
I have made all the inquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and there are no
matters of significance that I regard as relevant which, to the best of my knowledge, have been
withheld from the Panel.
Andrew Papacostas
Principal Advisor Pavements, Geotech. & Materials
VicRoads
10. REFERENCES
VicRoads (2013) Code of Practice RC 500.22 Selection and Design of Pavements and
Surfacing
Austroads (2013) Guide to the Selection and use of Polymer Modified Binders and Multigrade
Bitumens
Austroads (2013) AP-T236-13 Update of Double / Double Design for Austroads Sprayed Seal
Design Method
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APPENDIX A
Low traffic volumes, Single/single (s/s)sprayed seal The increase in large heavy
<750 v/l/d (AADT < with conventional class 170 vehicles puts this at the limit of s/s
1500) (C170) bitumen C170 seals.
Non stressed areas i.e. For those areas not clearly defined
Straights with flat grades as having no stress or high
stress a d/d C170 seals or s/s
seals incorporating PMB at low
levels of modification e.g. High
stress seal (HSS) may be
required.
Low traffic volumes, D/d seal with C170 bitumen or s/s Conventional C170 bitumen no
<750 v/l/d (AADT< seal with a polymer modified longer appropriate.
1500) binder E.G. HSS type treatment.
Increasing the proportion of heavy
Stressed areas i.e. vehicles results in the need for a
Straights with small more robust sprayed seal.
radius curves, grades Possibly a d/d sprayed seal with
>5% etc PMB.
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APPENDIX B
Name
Andrew Papacostas
Address
12 Lakeside Drive Burwood East Victoria 3151
Qualifications
Bachelor of Civil Engineering (Honours) Monash University
Master of Technology (Pavements) Deakin University
Member, Engineers Australia
Experience
I have approximately 29 years experience as a civil engineer in the road building and maintenance
industry, 24 years of which have been specialising in road pavement technology.
I am currently the VicRoads Principal Advisor Pavement, Geotech. & Materials. In this and previous
roles I have been responsible for providing VicRoads with independent technical advice relating to
pavement technology issues.
Areas of Expertise
I have substantial experience and expertise in road construction and maintenance, specialising in
pavement technology, which includes the design, rehabilitation, and maintenance of pavements,
pavement strength and skid resistance testing, road condition data interpretation, aggregate and soils
materials testing, preparation of design guides and standards.
Instructions
I have been requested by HWL Ebsworth Lawyers on behalf of VicRoads, to provide an expert
opinion report in relation to the impact on pavements along sections of various lengths of roads
(Benambra Road, Omeo Highway and the Great Alpine Road), arising from the traffic loading
generated from the Stockman Base Metals Project.
Summary of Opinions
See Conclusions section of the evidence statement
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APPENDIX C
Curriculum Vitae
ANDREW PAPACOSTAS
SUMMARY
More than 25 years in the road building industry with experience in construction, design and
specialising in pavement technology. Currently VicRoads Principal Advisor Pavements, Geotech, &
Materials.
Principal advisor on all matters pertaining to pavements and road building materials to VicRoads,
Victorian Government and the road based transport industry.
Provides technical leadership in the development, interpretation and maintenance of policy,
technical standards and asset management related to the pavements and road building materials
discipline in Victoria.
Leads the development and sustainability of pavement and road building material technical
expertise within VicRoads Technical Services, and contributes to this in the wider VicRoads
organisation.
Assesses the performance of pavements, surfacings and road building materials.
Represents VicRoads at state and national level (i.e. Austroads, Standards Australia), keeping
abreast of and contributing to emerging pavement and road building materials issues and
developments.
Academic Board member for the Centre for Pavement Engineering Education
Manager Pavement Technology Services 2003 - 2009
Successfully led, managed and provided technical direction of VicRoads Pavement Technology
Services group comprising professional, technical and field staff including external consultants and
contractors
Represented VicRoads at numerous national forums including Austroads
Sought after to participate on various State Road Authority expert panels
Established strong links with key areas including the private sector, State Road Authorities,
VicRoads
Academic and Council Board member for the Centre for Pavement Engineering Education
Member of drafting committees for various key national pavement technology publications
Reviewed and prepared numerous VicRoads specifications, design guides, test methods and other
publications
Presented papers at national forums
PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS
Academic
Master of Technology (Pavements) - Deakin University 2000
Bachelor of Engineering (Civil) with Honours Monash University 1985
Affiliations
Chartered Professional Engineer
Member - Institution of Engineers, Australia
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