Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
P To,en
Presenta1on CYA, Jan. 28, 2016
Dedicated to the Inspira0ons
To my two granddaughters Adelaide and Brenna, and Goddaughter Hiliary
Brenna Lavelle
2003 -
Hiliary Green
1991-2013
Adelaide Stout-Greenbaum
2014 -
Humans release CO2 emissions every 10 hours equal to the Mount
Pinatubo volcanic erup0on, Philippines, 1991
BAU = 90,000 erup0ons in 21st Century
$3.3 Trillion per year in 2050 global warming
costs to the world due just to U.S. emissions.
US Geological Survey, Volcanoes, h,ps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php
Externali0es Dened as Private Gain, Public Pain
Lung of LA Teenage
NONsmoker in 1970s; Most Big
Ci0es of the World Today
Miniaturized COIN
technologies technologies
Law of Accelerating Returns
Information Technologies (of all kinds)
double their power (price performance,
capacity, bandwidth) every year --
Logarithmic+Plot Logarithmic+Plot
Doubling)(or)Halving)times)
16
Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw
Law of Accelerating Returns
Every form of communications technology is
doubling price-performance, bandwidth,
capacity every 12 months
Moores)Law)is)only)one)example Logarithmic+Plot
Exponential)Growth)of)Computing)for)110)Years)
Moore's)Law)was)the)fth,)not)the)rst,)
paradigm)to)bring)exponential)growth)in)computing
Logarithmic+Plot
Logarithmic+Plot Logarithmic+Plot
Year
Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw
15
Law of Accelerating Returns
Miniaturization:
another exponential trend
Ray Kurzweil
Exponential Finance
July, 2014
http://www.ted.com/talks/
ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us?language=en https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnyQWr8hk0A
Law of Accelerating Returns
COllaborative
Proliferation of Intelligence/Innovation
Open Source COINs
Networks (COINs)
Collaborative another exponential
Intelligence/Innovation trend
Networks
Wikipedia, the worlds largest and fastest growing
encyclopedia, premier example of an open source
COIN to date. It is one of the top 5 to 7 daily
visited Internet sites in the world (monthly
readership of ~500 million worldwide).
s for a 3 Smartphones
2.5
it.
by new 2
market
1.5
0.5
0
1995 2000 2014 2020
Source: Benedict Evans, Industrial Internet,11-2014, Partner, Andreesen-
Horowitz; and, B. Evans, Mobile Is Eating the World, May 2013
(Left) Road Map for the Trillion Sensor Universe, 11/2013, Janusz Bryzek,VP,
MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor
Personal Pocket SuperComputer
SuperComputers Networkers
design
HVAC Buildings Chillers
geothermal bio
FITs LEDs Solar thermal decoupling+
incentives geospatial mapping COIN Ad hoc self-
aggregationMobility
Pumps/Compressors
organized groups of
solar gardensWater smart sensor networks
Plugloads integration zero waste bikes self-motivated citizens,
complete streetsLandscaping epeat EVs geographically
BIPV
peer-to-peer
codes Solar PVmicrogrids wind
Albedo surfaces
standards innovation networks LEED ++ dispersed, focused on
collaboration
Windows Architecture accomplishing a
Financing
conservation 10xE visualization specific mission
procurement
millions
APP Use Growing Exponentially
http://www.statista.com/statistics/266488/forecast-of-mobile-app-downloads/
Making Smarter & Integrated Sectors
Grids+Vehicles+Buildings+Industries
ANNUAL Wind
Uranium
Hydro
Photosynthesis
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on National
Petroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by
applying photovoltaics (PV) to 15%' 7% of existing urban area
on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and
in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.
Experts say we wouldnt have to appropriate a single acre of new
land to make PV our primary energy source!
U.S.'Wind'Power'LCOE'PPA'in'2013'2.5/kWh'
more thanGlobal'Wind'Power'LCOE'in'2013'6.5/kWh''
that the turbine scaling and other improvements to turbine efficiency described in Chapter 4 have
overcome these headwinds to help drive PPA prices lower.
6/kWh(
4/kWh(
2/kWh(
Figure 46. Generation-weighted average levelized wind PPA prices by PPA execution date and region
LCOE=Levelized(Cost(of(Electricity( PPA=Power(Purchase(Agreement(
Figure 46 also shows trends in the generation-weighted average levelized PPA price over time
among four of the five regions broken out in Figure 30 (the Southeast region is omitted from
Ryan(Wiser(&(Mark(Bollinger,(2013(Wind(Technologies(Market(Report,(Lawrence(Berkeley,(August(2014(
Figure 46 owing to its small sample size). Figures 45 and 46 both demonstrate that, based on our
data sample, PPA prices are generally low in the U.S. Interior, high in the West, and in the
middle in the Great Lakes and Northeast regions. The large Interior region, where much of U.S.
wind project development occurs, saw average levelized PPA prices of just $22/MWh in 2013.
Entire State of Calif
Community College
System BIG BIM
CLOUD COMUTING
! 71 Million ft2
! 2.75 Million
Students
! 112 California
locations
! 5,000 bldgs
Largest System Public Higher Education in World
5
6
IEA: World needs $48 TRILLION in investment
7
to meet its energy needs to 2035
8
WHY $23 TRILLION for fossil fuels ?? 9
$1.7 Trillion for nuclear
10
But only
$1.7 Trillion for Solar PV 11
Figure 1.6 $3.0 Trillion for Wind
Shares of total global average annual investment in the
12
New Policies Scenario
2026-2030 16
h,ps://www.iea.org/publica1ons/
freepublica1ons/publica1on/
weo-2014-special-report---
2031-2035 17 investment.html
18
Vie
vironmental Science
dependentJacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al., 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the
change in U.S. end-use power demand for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry)
al fuels and50 United States, Journal of Energy & Environmental Science, May 17, 2015, Royal Society of Chemistry,
WWS generators based on the state roadmaps proposed here. Total power demand decreases upon conversion t
h,ps://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/susenergy2030.html
of electricity over combustion and end-use energy eciency measures. The percentages on the horizontal date axis ar
WWS that has occurred by that year. The percentages next to each WWS source are the final estimated penetration of th
hmp://thesolu0onsproject.org/
hmp://100.org
www.go100re.net
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS World
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Mee1ng,
February 15, 2014, h,p://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS World
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Mee1ng,
February 15, 2014, h,p://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS World
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Mee1ng,
February 15, 2014, h,p://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
100% CALIFORNIA 100% CALIFORNIA
Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes
(electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry) (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry)
2050
Commercial/govt
Residential rooftop PV
rooftop PV Avoided Mortality and Illness Costs Percentage of California Land Needed for
7.5%
5% All New WWS Generators
Avoided health costs per year:
0.64% 2.61%
Solar PV plants Wave devices
27% PROJECTED 0.5%
ENERGY MIX
CSP plants Geothermal $128B Footprint area Spacing area
15% 5%
2.9% of State GDP
Plan pays for itself in as little as 2.6 years from air pollution and climate
40-Year Jobs Created Operation jobs: 142,153 cost savings alone
-44.3%
U.S. average fossil-fuel energy costs*
10.73 c/kWh
*Health and climate external costs of fossil fuels are another 5.7c/kWh
9.7 c/kWh
Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit
http://go100.me/50StateTargets http://go100.me/50StateTargets
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Mee1ng,
February 15, 2014, h,p://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Mee1ng,
February 15, 2014, h,p://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Mee1ng,
February 15, 2014, h,p://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Mee1ng,
February 15, 2014, h,p://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Rapid, affordable energy transformation
possible, study says
25 January 2016
"In the future, they may not need to," said co-lead
author Christopher Clack, a physicist and
mathematician with the Cooperative Institute for
A high-resolution map based on NOAA weather data Research in Environmental Sciences at the
showing one measure of wind energy potential across
University of Colorado Boulder.
the United States in 2012. Credit: Chris Clack/CIRES
h,p://www.greentechmedia.com/ar1cles/read/gtm-research-global-solar-pv-installa1ons-grew-34-in-2015?
utm_source=Solar&utm_medium=Newsle,er&utm_campaign=GTMSolar
Energy Payback Time (EPBT) in Years for
dierent loca0ons and technologies
60-fold
increase
2015 Clean Edge, Inc. (www.cleanedge.com). This report, and the models and analysis contained herein, are the property of Clean Edge and may not
is contained herein, are the property of Clean Edge andbemay
reproduced,
not published, or summarized for distribution or incorporation into a report or other document without prior approval. GETTING TO 100 6
or other document without prior approval. GETTING TO 100 5
50
40
TW 30 15% year growth
20 20
Current Global Energy Consumption in TW-years
10 10% yr growth
0 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839
2012 2050
years 2028 2035
Ray Kurzweil and Larry Page, calculate solar PV growth achieving 8 doublings within the next several decades,
h,ps://charlieonenergy.wordpress.com/2015/12/07/solar-and-moores-law/, December 7, 2015 / charlieonenergy
matching total global energy demand, prepared for National Academy of Engineers Workshop of Experts, 2008
Whats the Size of the U.S. Wind Resource?
Ed DeMeo, Governors Wind & Solar Energy, Coali1on Policy Priori1es Workshop, June 19, 2015,
h,p://www.governorswindenergycoali1on.org/?page_id=13502
Wind power is a func1on of the cube (3rd power) of the wind
speed. If wind speed is doubled, power in the wind 8-fold. Small
dierences in wind speed lead to large dierences in power.
Higher towers intercept more constant, higher speed winds.
HOW TO SUSTAIN DOUBLE DIGIT
GLOBAL GROWTH OF RURAL- &
COASTAL-BASED WIND FARMS?
35
10
5 TW by 2030
(15%/year 2011-2030) 1 million 5-MW
5
0
33 TW by 2050 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
(10%/yr from 2031-2050) 6.6 million 5-MW
2012 years 2050
Wind Royalties Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
windpower farm
h,p://energy.gov/eere/ar1cles/unlocking-our-na1on-s-wind-poten1al
Silicon Solar Cells
Solar cell eciencies of devices using these materials increased
from 3.8% in 2009 to 21.0% in 2015.
CIGS CdTe
Lab-eciency > 20 % & 2 % share 5 percent of worldwide PV
overall PV market in 2013. produc0on, & half the thin lm
Copper Indium Gallium Selenide solar market. FirstSolar 14 % ecient
cell. Red = Cu, Yellow = Se, Blue = In/Ga & price below 60 cents per wam
EFFICIENCY/
PRODUCTIVITY
50+% Global Total
Energy Services
I. MOTIVATION
HOW TO ACCELERATE INTEGRATED
1) Prove or disprove the economic viability of
retrofits.
DESIGN (& DEEP RENOVATION) IN
Prior to 2008, the Empire State Buildings per
THE GLOBAL BUILDING SECTOR?
to most U.S. office buildings.
construction
Peak
through 2030
source: Ed Mazria, Architecture 2030, ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS, June 4, 2014, submission to Durban Platform for Enhanced Action; citing and
Adapted from, Dobbs, Richard. Insights & Publications. 06-2012. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/
urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class
ASSETs
Apps for
Spurring
Solar and
Efficiency
Techknowledge
http://www.critigen.com/solution/solar-map-standard-edition
Solution
MARFORRES Energy Program selected Critigen to provide its
Solar Site Assessment solution at multiple installations to
analyze the opportunity for efficient solar system installation.
Critigen Solar Site Assessment is a remote solar assessment tool
developed from Critigens Solar Mapping program that models
COIN ASSET EXAMPLES OF APPLIED ACTION! the most important factors in Solar PV production: solar access,
shading, rooftop azimuth and pitch, and other local variables, to
determine a buildings solar potential.
TACTICS
MARFORRES Energy Program, providing them with graphical and
Growing ASSETs The Critigen Solar Model assesses all surrounding
Growing ASSETs
topology (e.g. vegetation, buildings) in the data for
tabular reports detailing building, roof-panel and sub-meter
shading impacts and determines hotspots for solar PV.
resolution solar energy production potential and graphically
Building by Building, Campus by Campus, City by City depicts where on the roof the hotspots for solar are. Reports
include 3D perspective views, solar hotspot maps and building-
Solution BIM 7
level solar potential roll-ups. The site assessments were
MARFORRES Energy Program selected Critigen to provide customized
its to reflect MARFORRES-specific criteria and
Solar Site Assessment solution at multiple installations considerations
to and to meet other needs driven by DOD and
legislative mandates.
analyze the opportunity for efficient solar system installation.
Critigen Solar Site Assessment is a remote solar assessment tool
developed from Critigens Solar Mapping program that Result
models
the most important factors in Solar PV production: Critigen Solar Site Assessments have placed actionable
solar access,
shading, rooftop azimuth and pitch, and other local variables, toin the hands of facility and energy managers at
information
determine a buildings solar potential. MARFORRES and are helping them locate the most efficient sites
DSG AGGREGATION for solar energy generation. In addition to ensuring optimal site
Roof&Ground
Critigen performed more thansolar 10 Solar Site Assessments for for
selection the future systems, one assessment revealed
The Critigen Solar Model assesses all surrounding MARFORRES
Rooftop Energy
obstructions and Program,
perimeter
PV capability inventory providing
setbacks werethem with graphical and
applied using the MARFORRES 3D data for more
apportion of a rooftop with a planned solar PV system that was
topology (e.g. vegetation, buildings) in the data for
tabular reports detailing building, roof-panel and sub-meter
shading impacts and determines hotspots for solar PV. accurate solar potential calculations. unsuitable for solar energy production. The assessment
resolution solar energy production potential and graphically
allowed MARFORRES to avoid more than $60,000 in costs to
360 Visual Tour 10x EE
depicts where on the roof the hotspots for solar are. Reports
construct the portion of the system that had been overdesigned
include 3D perspective views, solar hotspot maps and building-
by the installer.
level
Onesolar potential
Solar Siteroll-ups.
Assessment The site assessments were
customized to reflect MARFORRES-specific criteria and Costing less than 1% of the cost of a typical large solar PV
allowed MARFORRES to avoid
considerations and to meet other needs driven by DOD andCritigen Solar Site Assessments have proven to provide
system,
more than
legislative $60,000 in costs
mandates. an essential and cost-effective level of assurance that systems
for a solar PV system that will deliver planned return on investment and deliver progress
Result
had been overdesigned. toward legislative mandates faced by Federal agencies.
Critigen Solar Site Assessments have placed actionable
information in the hands of facility and energy managers at
MARFORRES and are helping them locate the most efficient sites
for solar energy generation. In addition to ensuring optimal site
selection for future systems, one assessment revealed
Rooftop obstructions and perimeter setbacks were
applied using the MARFORRES 3D data for more
apportion of a rooftop with a planned solar PV system that was
unsuitable for solar energy production. The assessment
Apps for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge
accurate solar potential calculations.
allowed MARFORRES to avoid more than $60,000 in costs to
Contact
construct
Corporate the portion of the system that had been overdesigned
Headquarters
7604
by Technology Way, Suite 300
the installer.
One Solar Site Assessment Denver, CO 80237 2012 Critigen, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
+1Costing
303.706.0990
less than 1% of the cost of a typical large solar PV All other trademarks used herein are the property of their respective owners.
allowed MARFORRES to avoid critigen.com
system, Critigen Solar Site Assessments have proven to provide
more than $60,000 in costs
an essential and cost-effective level of assurance that systems
ASSET EXTERIOR BUILDINGS!
AS
SE
Ts 360 interactive View
Singapore%EXPO%Conven;on%&%Exhibi;on%Centre Urban%Heat%Island
Each%m2%white%roof%osets%1%ton%CO2
The long-term effect of increasing the albedo of urban areas, Hashem Akbari, H Damon Matthews and Donny Seto, Environmental Research Letters, 7 (2012) 024004
SOLAR REFLECTORS
Over 4000 Walmart stores with
white roofs, and standard
practice since 1990
Reflects away 80% of solar heat
ASSET CITYSCAPE SCALE!
APP-Aggregating Assemblages of Buildings
Priority-Ranking Biggest Opportunities
Incorporating Financing Algorithms
COINs for learning, skills, training, practice, verification, adaptation, time saving
Arizona State University researchers have developed a new software system capable of estimating GHG emissions across entire urban
landscapes, all the way down to roads and individual buildings. Until now, scientists quantified CO2 emissions at a much broader level. Dubbed
"Hestia" after the Greek goddess of the hearth and home, the system combines extensive public database "data-mining" with traffic simulation
and building-by-building energy-consumption modeling. Its high-resolution maps clearly identify CO2 emission sources in a way that policy-
makers can utilize and the public can understand. Hestia provides a complete, three-dimensional picture of where, when, and how carbon
dioxide emissions are occurring. Credit: Kevin Gurney, Bedrich Benes, Michel Abdul-Massih, Suzanna Remec, Jim Hurst
One-Click, One-Stop Process for Solar PV
Assessment-Financing-Installation-Operation
f
in a conventional power the fuel ene
plant a rg
nd only y is lost eve
data center a tiny n
fractio before it lea
n prov v
ides re es the
al valu
e.
energ
y is los
t in th
e proc
ess
ENERGY LOSS
energy -67% power plant -10% transmission and distribution
into plant: -33% cooling
100 W
-4% lighting
-15% uninterruptible power supply
-10% fans
-35% power supply
-85% underutilization
-40% inefficient &
zero-value applications
inefficient
business
processes
Some of the most exciting
ENERGY INTO 100 W
FOCUS work RMI has done, and is Mo
ive U.S. industrial sector that
As we electricity
complete supply 30 RMI has a long history of collaborating with industry st o
Graphic by Stanford Kay Studio. Reprinted by permission from Reinventing Fire, published by Chelsea Green, 2011.
oductivity by 2050 and is Heres
16on solutions, design of products and processes and the
h data center
doing, isinwith our industrial power fpthlanetfuel energy is
a conventional
energy ow whole-s and on lo
ly a tin st even befo
r savings.
Reinventing Fire research, application of renewable and alternative energy sources.
at eac ys
h step tems design
data center
collaborators. We work with y fracti re
Factor 5+
server 1.4 0.9 on pro it leaves th
of the vides re e
RMI is reinvigorating its We push energy
clients hard on efficiency, renewables,
applications and intovalue can save some of the best engineers and al valu
e.
business
related sustainability issues. customer
Our strengths value:
in working
chain.
r generates more than 40% planners in the world, who feel energ
industrial work. This is a processes
4 y is lost
employs almost 20 million with industry include our much and
knowledge of energy less than in the
process
r mills, chemical plants,
3
efficiency technologies, our expertise in shaping 1W that RMI really adds something
, light manufacturing and then cut
utility
key
losses
part of RMIs heritage integrative, cross-functional design experiences, our
information-gathering network, and our professionalism.
2
to their energy
products, investments, ENERGY LOSS
This mighty engine consumed then cut -67% power plant -10% transmission and distribution
andcooling
oneandwe intend to
1
ergy in 2010, 76% of whichby 50%
then cut IT
We facilitate innovative thinking and bring together capabilities, and strategies. We
into plant: -33% cooling
eater adoption of energy power supply unusual partners. We have new clients in the mining, 100 W
ty to increase the productivity keep active
energy by and vibrant.
equipments
internal losses
debloat softwareautomotive, industrial process, and oil and gas industries. are at the front of a wave of -4% lighting
-15% uninterruptible power supply
s and driving global and ensure that We look forward to sharing more in the future as this work better design combined with
As 90%
before,
RMI will
by 75% work every computationunfoldscreating rapid mutual learning, teachable cases, -10% fans
cycle is needed and competitive pressure for emulation. more responsible, long-term -35% power supply
28 trillion, U.S. industry would 98 with select major fi rms to thinkingand weve been -85% underutilization
-40% inefficient &
1%
resent value return from
Companies that can overcome maximize 29
energy15 efficiency helping shape that wave. zero-value applications
0.4 W inefficient
l barriers and make the bold
efficiency improvementsA MULTIPLYING across
EFFECT
their operations business
processes
globally competitiveand The savingsfocusing ongoradically
compound as you upstream, multiplying Robert Hutch Hutchinson,
atile fossil fuel prices. ENERGY INTO 100 W
downstream savings by up to about 100-fold.
productive processes Less than RMI Managing
He
Director
electricity supply 30
res h data center
energy ow whole-s 16
emerging energy efficiency and effective products. of the power-plant fuel that makes at eac ys
h step tems design
of the
server 1.4 0.9
ing waste heat, and using
electricity for a data center value can save 21applications energy into
ape and optimize subsystems We may also help drive chain. business customer value:
actually creates
050 it is possible to reduce 4 processes much less than
ast 9% below 2010 levels even fundamental changes then cut
3
1W
customer value.
ows by 84%. 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g04-G53mbmc
Electric-Powered Mobility Innovation Globally
Nearly 1/2 billion electric bikes, trikes, scooters by 2015
Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons
for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up
Resources
WIND SIMs
WIND SIMs
Computer model wind farm optimization Real-world Wind turbine performance metrics
BIM7+
(Cradle-to-Cradle)
Neil(Calvert,(Why(We(Care(About(BIM,(DirecNons(Magazine,(Dec.(11,(2013,(h,p://www.direcNonsmag.com/arNcles/whyPwePcarePaboutPbim/368436((
Integrated'Designs'&'Integrated'Opera6ons' 36
Lifecycle(&(CradlePtoPCradle(
From Integrated designs to integrated operations
I
N
I
HVAC high-side Occupancy T
N
E
buildings'
T
G
E
R
G
R HVAC low-side Weather A
T
A
E
T
E
Building D
D
Lighting Loads
O
D
E Computing
36(Mc2' Operating hours
P
E
R
S
A
I
T
N
Design stage
Efficiency (BEE) S
Realistic scenario
most efficient/peak
5-star rating signifies being the-variables
most energy efficient
Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(Sept(15,(2014(
Building Analytics in action SMALL'SENSORS'
BIG'DATA'
At one client facility running Building Analytics, the preheating VISUAL'ANALYTICS'
coil and cooling coil were operating simultaneously and wasting
more than $900 and 80,000 kBTUs on a daily basis. The problem
was pinpointed at a leaking chilled water valve that once repaired
produced $60,000 in annual savings with ROI in the first month.
Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(09P15P2014(
Decrease'in'project'risk''
with'increase'in'BIM'details'
A/E'Firms' Issa, Suermann and Olbina
Contractors'
Owners'
Cradle'to'Cradle*Facility*Lifespan*Integra6on**
Risk
2D 3D 4D 5D 6D 7D
Figure 3: Decrease in project risk with the increase in model details
VICO Control is a location based virtual construction system that allows the creation of compressed schedules which al-
Neil(Calvert,(Why(We(Care(About(BIM,(DirecNons(Magazine,(Dec.(11,(2013,(
low the user to determine progress by comparing actual productivity to the project schedule. Many BIM models are not able
to store information beyond what h,p://www.direcNonsmag.com/arNcles/whyPwePcarePaboutPbim/368436((
the building looks like and as such do not allow the user to store info on the construction
process. VICO Control allows integrated construction of the whole project and allows the user to link duration and cost in-
formation directly to the model. Accordingly the user can instantly see the impact of changes in scope and schedule on the
entire project. It links the building model to estimating and scheduling information going from 3D to 5D and allows the user
to add additional parameters to each and every element in the BIM. Thus, the user can attach a recipe describing the means
Calif. Community Colleges FUSION
Facilities Utilization Space Inventory Options Net
BIG BIM Bang -- Enterprise BIM and BIG Data -- Sharing Data, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls
CITIZEN CHANGE AGENTS
CHANGING PUBLIC POLICIES
&
MARKET PRACTICES
CHANGE READINESS MATRIX
100
Leadership Change Capacity
Ready for Ready for
Learning Change
0
0 Organiza0on Change Capacity 100
h,p://www.ascd.org/publica1ons/books/109019/chapters/The-Organiza1onal-Change-Readiness-Assessment.aspx
David Roberts, Vox, Jan. 27, 2016, h,p://www.vox.com/2016/1/27/10849564/renewable-energy-tax-credits-big-deal
Average Retail Residen0al Electricity Rates
Compared to Values of Solar in 11 Cost-Benet Analysis
Figure ES-1: Retail Electricity Rates and the Values of Solar Energy in 11 Cost-Benefit Analyses.
35.00
20.00
(PUC)Studies wrimen
by, or commissioned by,
15.00
public u0li0es
commissions
Retail Electricity Rate
10.00 Value of Solar
ons
(O)Studies wrimen by,
or commissioned by, non-
5.00 u0lity organiza0ons
U U O O PUC O O O O PUC
0.00
U
t Of these 11 analyses, the median value of Net metering policies have been critical to the
ety, or did it only consider a limited number of direct Value Provided by Solar Energy
benefits to the grid and the utility? Usually Exceeds Benefits from Net
The most basic way to value solar, and the most Metering
Categories of Benets & Costs Included in Each
common, is to calculate the avoided costs that result
Nearly all analyses that consider a full range of solar
from its expansion.29 In other words, what costs do
energy benefits find that the value provided by
Value of Solar Energy Cost-Benet Analysis*
Table 2: Categories of Benefits and Costs Included in Each Solar Energy Cost-Benefit Analysis.*
Avoided Cost of
Costs of Avoided Capital and Reduced Environ- Avoided
Solar Not Energy Capacity Financial Grid mental Greenhouse Economic Total (cents
Author Integration Specied Costs Investment Risks Resiliency Compliance Gas Emissions Development per kWh)
SAIC 3.56
Xcel 8.04
CPR (Austin) 10.70
CPR (Utah) 11.60
CPR (San
Antonio) 15.80
Synapse 16.90
Crossborder
Energy (AZ) 23.50
CPR (NJ) 28.10
Acadia 29.06
CPR (PA) 31.90
Maine PUC 33.60
*Colored cells represent categories included in the solar energy cost-benet calcula0on
*Colored cells represent categories that were included in the solar energy cost-benefit calculation
Solar Energy is Worth More Than the Benefits from Net Metering 15
SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Roooop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey Hallock, Fron1er Group
Rob Sargent, Environment America Research & Policy Center, Summer 2015
when evaluating programs that compen- policies, including multifamily homes or homes
sate customers for the solar electricity they without out sunny roofs, by implementing
provide to the grid. virtual net metering programs.
32
27
Value of Solar (cents per kWh)
22
17
-3
Luke Mills, Joseph Byrne, Clean Energy Investment: Q4 2015 Factpack, January 2016, Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
and on-bill models have developed independently as a response to market demand.
Managed
Energy On-Bill
Energy Savings Energy Property Assessed
Financing Services Financing/
Performance Services Clean Energy
Model Agreement Repayment
Contract (ESPC) Agreement (PACE)
(ESA) (OBF/OBR)
(MESA)
Market
High for MUSH;
low for
*
Low Low Low Low
Penetration Commercial and
Industrial
MUSH, MUSH, Residential,
MUSH,
Target Market Commercial, Commercial, Residential, Commercial,
Commercial,
Segment and and Commercial and
and Industrial
Industrial Industrial Industrial
Balance Sheet On or Off On or Off On or Off Undetermined On or Off
Typical $250,000 - $250,000 - $2,000 - $2.5 $5,000 -
Unlimited
Project Size $10 million $10 million million $350,000
Allows for
Extensive Yes Yes Yes Yes No
Retrofits
Repayment Energy Energy Property Via utility
Energy savings
Method savings savings assessments bill
Depends on Equipment;
Security/
financing (e.g., Equipment Equipment Assessment Lien Service
Collateral
lease or debt) termination
Responsibility ESCO or MESA
Customer Customer Customer
for Utility Bills Customer provider
*MUSH= Municipalities, Universities, Schools & Hospitals
This section
source: Innovations describes in
and Opportunities each of Efficiency
Energy these emerging models
Finance, White Paper, in
2ndbrief
edition,and
Mayprovides anSonsini,
2012, Wilson, assessment
Goodrichof the
& Rosati
advantages and disadvantages associated with each.
Current PACE-enabled states include AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, FL, IL, GA,
KY, LA, MD, MI, MN, MO, NH, NJ,NY, OH, OR, TX, UT, VA, WI.
PACE program representa0ves in most of these states operate in an
isolated few municipali0es and do not yet have statewide reach.
California, the na0ons PACE hot-spot, is home to the most PACE
programs, which cover the vast majority of Califs coun0es & ci0es
PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy)
1) There is no cost or investment up-front. PACE providers nance
up to 100%, helping businesses with internal funding shortages.
2) Property owners see a posi1ve cash ow due to energy savings
that lower monthly opera1ng expenses.
3) PACE assessments stay with the property if the building is sold.
This allows building owners to make deep energy eciency
improvements without having to pay o the nancing upon sale.
Instead, the payments can transfer to a new owner.
4) There is the ability to pass payments through to tenants. PACE
projects are nanced using a property tax assessment. If the
owner of a building has several tenants leasing the space of the
building, the line item PACE payments will be paid back by the
tenants through their building taxes.
h,p://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/upping-the-pace-for-solar
PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy)
[$ / ton CO2-eq]
has also dropped
300
200
100
Wind
Professor Jessika Trancik, Energineering 0
Systems, MIT, Nov 29, 2015,
h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-
charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
-100
2000 2014
Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015
Chinas growth is set to triple by 2025,
reaching an es0mated 347 GW by 2025
Worlds Most Ecient Roo}op Solar Panel
h,p://energy.gov/eere/ar1cles/unlocking-our-na1on-s-wind-poten1al
Wind Vision 2030
projected growth of the wind industry by 2030
h,p://energy.gov/ar1cles/new-interac1ve-map-shows-big-poten1al-america-s-wind-energy-future
Wind Vision 2050
projected growth of the wind industry over the next 35 years
h,p://energy.gov/ar1cles/new-interac1ve-map-shows-big-poten1al-america-s-wind-energy-future
Wind and solar energy have grown faster than expected
7000 600
Fossil Nuclear
6000 500
Global power capacity [GWp]
1000 500
Global power capacity [GWp]
600 300
400 200
200 100
0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015
h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
Solar and wind energy costs have fallen
as their markets have grown
200 400
[GWp]
[GWp]
100 12600% growth 200 2300% growth
since 2000 since 2000
50 100
0 0
1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
300
100
Solar (PV) module price
Cost of electricity
80
200
[$/MWh]
60
[$/Wp]
150
40
100
86% decline 35% decline
20 since 2000 50 since 2000
0 0
1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015,
h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015
Opportunity for further cost decline
Opportunity for further cost decline under
Opportunity for further cost decline
under countries climate pledges (INDCs)
under countries climate pledges (INDCs)
countries climate pledges (INDCs)
250 250
Wind Solar (PV)
200 200
+ Health impacts
Direct cost
150 150
50
50
0
0
14
tio 0
14
14
ec 03
n
20
20
20
oj 2
tio )
w lar era 14
30 S um 4
14
ec PV
im 1
01
d
pr d
as
oa
n
or ( ge
So av ) 20
in 20
20
in
lg
oj r (
i
l2
W
m )
s
pr ola
a
oa
ld V
ld PV
ga
ur
or (P
C
at
al
N
w lar
ur
So
at
Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, 20
N
h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-
demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop 2015 best sites
Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 20
h,ps://ilsr.org/congress-gets-renewable-tax-credit-extension-right/ John Farrell, Jan 25, 2016
h,p://repowering.org
REPOWERmap
h,p://repowering.org
CHINA SOLAR
Between 2000 and 2012,
Chinas solar energy output
increased from 3 MW to 21,000
MW. And its solar output
increased by 67 % between
2013 and 2014 alone.
CHINA WIND
between 1997 and 2014 China's
wind energy became the
na0on's 3rd-largest power
source: in less than 15 years,
wind produc0on grew from 146
MW to over 114,700 MW, and
plans on doubling that to 200
GW by 2020.
h,p://www.power-technology.com/features/featurechinas-energy-revolu1on-4643231/ 11 August 2015 Eva Grey
US electricity sector CO
TURE CLIMATE 2 emissions (le} axis, bars) and
CHANGE DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2921 ARTICL
LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) (right axis, diamonds)
NEWS simulated results
0.14
2,500
Electricity sector CO2 emissions (million metric tons)
0.13
0.11
1,500 9.84
0.10
10.21 10.04
8.54 0.09
1,000
8.57 0.08
37%
33% 0.07
500
16%
61% 0.06
6%
78%
0 0.05
1990 2012 2030 Coal High-cost RE Mid-cost RE Low-cost RE
reference scenario Low-cost NG Mid-cost NG High-cost NG
Blue bars are for historical data and an Interna1onal Energy Agency projec1on to 2030 (ref. 6). The green bars represent results from our op1miza1on model (the values
2 | The USare the average of the three years of simula1ons). The coal scenario is iden1cal to the HRLG scenario, but with the inclusion of coal plants. The red diamonds represent
electricity sector CO2 emissions (left axis, bars) and levelized cost of electricity (right axis, diamonds). The blue bars are for his
the levelized cost of electricity per kilowa,-hour (kWh) to consumers in 2013US$. The percentages show the change of CO2 emissions rela1ve to 1990 levels.
nd an International Energy Agency projection to 2030 (ref. 6). The green bars represent results from our optimization model (the values are t
Future cost-compe11ve electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions, Alexander E. MacDonald,
ge of the three years of simulations). The coal scenario is identical to the HRLG scenario, but with the inclusion of coal plants. The red diamon
Christopher T. M. Clack, et al., Nature Climate Change, Jan. 25, 2016
ent the levelized cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to consumers in 2013US$. The percentages show the change of CO2 emissions re
0 levels.
Energy Storage
h,p://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ar1cles/2016/01/energy-storage-set-for-record-year-in-2016.html?
cmpid=renewablesolar01232016&eid=289707094&bid=1288430
FIVE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
ENABLING THE SHIFT TO 100%
1 2 3 4 5
DISTRIBUTED SOLAR UTILITY-SCALE ENERGY STORAGE NET ZERO BUILDINGS AN EMBOLDENED,
BECOMES COST- RENEWABLES COMPLETES THE AND SMART RESILIENT GRID
EFFECTIVE ACROSS GROW UP PUZZLE CONNECTED DEVICES TAKES SHAPE
GEOGRAPHIES DRIVE EFFICIENCY
Source: Clean Edge research
RENAISSANCE
2015 Clean Edge, Inc. (www.cleanedge.com). This report, and the models and analysis contained herein, are the property of Clean Edge and may not
be reproduced, published, or summarized for distribution or incorporation into a report or other document without prior approval. GETTING TO 100
Clean energy investments in 2015
hit new record of $329bn
74%
26%
$3.60
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50 $2.27
$2.00
$1.68
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
Residential Commercial Utility
Modules Inverters and AC Subsystem
DC Electrical BOS Structural BOS
Direct Labor Engineering and PII
Next Wave of U.S. Solar, Shayle Kann, Sr VP, Research, Greentech Media, U.S. Solar Market Insight 2014
U0lity Solar PPA Prices Now Consistently
Below $70/MWh (<7 cents/kWh)
$200
$175
$150
$125
PPA Price ($/MWh)
$100
$75
$50
$25
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Contract Execution Date
GTM, Shayle Kann, The Evolu1on of the U.S. Solar Market, April 2015
Chinas solar PV capacity is expected
to hit 150 GW by 2020
CHINA
INDIA
India has announced plans to set up 100 GW of solar power over 5
years and 175 GW by 2020; a target double the target set by China
between 2011 and 2015.
h,p://cleantechnica.com/2014/11/14/trina-solar-open-solar-pv-module-manufacturing-hub-india/, November
14th, 2014 by Mridul Chadha
CHILE
A 20-fold increase in o-grid power connec1ons is among the aims of a plan to achieve
universal energy access in Africa by 2025. The plan, announced by the African
Development Bank (AFB), envisages 160 GW of new grid-connected genera1on capacity
and 75 million new o-grid power connec1ons. There is 10,000 GW of solar poten1al on
the African con1nent according to the AFB.
US$60-90 billion a year is needed, compared with the US$22 billion invested in the sector
in 2014. According to the AFB President, "If Africa were to increase its annual spending on
energy from 0.4% of GDP to 3.4%, this would solve the problem completely. This could also
be done by puzng an end to subsidies for products such as kerosene and diesel.
h,p://www.pv-tech.org/news/davos-2016-energy-new-deal-for-africa-targets-universal-access-by-2025
The Wind Vision Report
The Benefits of Wind Energy Today
The avoided CO2 emissions from wind energy today help offset the equivalent of more
Key Fact than 24 million passenger vehicles
9 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office eere.energy.gov
The Wind Vision Report
The Study Scenario
The Potential of 35% of the Countrys Electricity Coming from Wind Energy by 2050
The Wind Vision Study Scenario results in modest increases in electricity cost in the near- and mid-
term (<1% price increase), but in the long term electricity costs savings of 2% are achieved by 2050
13 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office eere.energy.gov
h,p://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/eciency_chart.jpg
Bo,om line: unless a PV system is at least 15% ecient, it will not survive in the marketplace. The cost pressure is high,
because PV competes with fossil fuels which are subsidized directly and indirectly, and because the residen1al market
deals with addi1onal soo costs for permizng, electricians, inspectors and installers. In the U.S. this typically doubles
the cost of the panels. Bringing down these soo costs would do much more than any poten1al eciency gains on the
innova1on side of the equa1on. the industry has been booming for years and s1ll is: prices are down and sales are up in
what in the U.S. is a $150 billion-a-year market.
Solar PV module Roadmaps 2005 and 2010
1. Trina Solar 6. First Solar
2. Canadian Solar 7. Yingli Green
3. JinkoSolar 8. SFCE
4. JA Solar 9. ReneSola
5. Hanwha Q CELLS 10. SunPower Corp
Photovoltaics Interna1onal, fourth quarter, 13th edi1on, December 2015, h,p://www.pv-tech.org
Rela1ve market shares of casted and mono c-Si. Source: h,p://www.itrpv.net.
and inverter) and other costs each account for about half the decline. Another
period has been the steady increase in the size of installed systems, from an ave
2000 to over 6 kWAverage installed prices of U.S. PV systems
in 2013.
in 2000 and 2013, in real $/W
$16
$14 $13.37
Installed Price (2013 $/W)
$12
$10
42%
$8
$6 $4.77
$4 51%
$2
$0
2000 price Module Inverter Other costs 2013 price
Figure Characteris1cs of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet, Eric OShaughnessy,
1. Average installed prices of U.S. PV systems in 2000 and 2013, in real $/W.
Ryan Wiser et al, LBNL-1004062, Jan. 2016
Distribu0on of installed prices
forSolar PV systems installed in 2013
Figure 3 shows the share of installations in each U.S. state that is LP (at or below the 10th
Share of systems in each state that is P10
Gray states have price data but are missing data on other characteris0cs,
so they are dropped from all other analyses
Figure 3. Share of systems in each state that is P10. Gray states have price data but are missing data
Characteris1cs of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet, Eric OShaughnessy,
on other characteristics, so they are dropped from all other analyses.
Ryan Wiser et al, LBNL-1004062, Jan. 2016
3.3. Installer Firms
Clean Energy Collec1ve, Mid Valley, CO, Clean Energy Collec1ve, Colorado Springs CO,
h,p://cleaneasyenergy.com/cecblog/ h,p://cleaneasyenergy.com/cecblog/
GTM predicts community solar will grow at 60% between 2014 and
2020, resul1ng in 1.8 GW of new solar capacity by 2020.
NREL forecasts even greater growth, es1ma1ng community solar
will achieve 5.5 to 11 GW of new distributed solar systems, and US
$8 to US$16 billion in cumula1ve investment.
h,p://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/worlds-biggest-ev-and-storage-maker-predicts-3-fold-increase-in-market-21610
Eciency/Produc0vity Gains
Energy eciency in Brazil, China, the E.U., Mexico, and the U.S. can reduce the
cost of decarboniza0on by up to $250 billion per year and reduce annual
emissions by 11 billion metric tons (Gt) of CO2e in 2030 roughly two-thirds of
the GHG reduc0ons needed in these regions to limit warming to 2C.
How Energy Eciency Cuts Costs for a 2C Future, Faunhofer Ins0tute, Nov 24, 2015, h,p://www.climateworks.org/
report/how-energy-eciency-cuts-costs-for-a-2c-future/
GEs Current
GEs start-up company,
Current, which is backed by
GEs balance sheet, brings
together GEs LED, Solar,
Energy Storage, and EV
businesses as a one-stop
shop for early customers like
Walgreens, JPMorgan Chase,
Hilton Worldwide and
others.
TeraWam
Ini0a0ve
French energy giant Engie has launched a major public-private
ini1a1ve that aims to ensure that 1,000GW of solar capacity is
installed around the world by 2030.
Incoming president and CEO, Isabelle Kocher (pictured above),
is nailing her colors to the mast. Engie is a giant of a company, with
opera1ons in 70 countries and 150,000 employees
The 1,000GW target might be below some of the more op1mis1c
forecasts for 2030, par1cularly those by Greenpeace and others (and
it should be noted that Greenpeace, which predicts up to 1,800GW of
solar, has been the most accurate forecaster in the last 10 years).
O-Grid Solar Company Connec0ng
12,000 homes a month
We think of it as an energy services business model that removes
risk for customers. It uses nancing measures eec0vely a solar
lease to oer the latest in solar technology for less than or equal
to a customers average energy spend on kerosene and diesel.
We are oering
ligh0ng, phone
charging, and
increasing access to a
modern lifestyle.
h,p://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/the-o-grid-solar-company-connec1ng-12000-homes-a-month-19292
STORAGE
02 WHAT SERVICES CAN BATTERIES PROVIDE TO THE ELECTRICITY GRID?
The purchase of wholesale electricity while the locational marginal price (LMP) of energy is low (typically
during nighttime hours) and sale of electricity back to the wholesale market when LMPs are highest.
Energy Arbitrage
Load following, which manages the difference between day-ahead scheduled generator output, actual
generator output, and actual demand, is treated as a subset of energy arbitrage in this report.
Frequency regulation is the immediate and automatic response of power to a change in locally sensed
system frequency, either from a system or from elements of the system.1 Regulation is required to
Frequency Regulation
ensure that system-wide generation is perfectly matched with system-level load on a moment-by-
ISO / RTO SERVICES
moment basis to avoid system-level frequency spikes or dips, which create grid instability.
Spinning reserve is the generation capacity that is online and able to serve load immediately in
Spin/Non-Spin response to an unexpected contingency event, such as an unplanned generation outage. Non-
Reserves spinning reserve is generation capacity that can respond to contingency events within a short period,
typically less than ten minutes, but is not instantaneously available.
Voltage regulation ensures reliable and continuous electricity flow across the power grid. Voltage on
Voltage Support the transmission and distribution system must be maintained within an acceptable range to ensure
that both real and reactive power production are matched with demand.
In the event of a grid outage, black start generation assets are needed to restore operation to larger
Black Start power stations in order to bring the regional grid back online. In some cases, large power stations are
themselves black start capable.
Fitzgerald, Garre,, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve Toua1. The Economics of BaAery Energy Storage: How mulH-use, customer-sited
UTILITY SERVICES
baAeries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain Ins1tute, September 2015. <<h,p://www.rmi.org/
electricity_ba,ery_value>>
Utility services generally fall into two categories. One The other set of utility services is comprised of resource
set of servicestransmission- and distribution-system adequacy and transmission congestion relief.
02 WHAT SERVICES CAN BATTERIES PROVIDE TO THE ELECTRICITY GRID?
UTILITY SERVICES
TABLE 2: UTILITY SERVICES
Instead of investing in new natural gas combustion turbines to meet generation requirements during
peak electricity-consumption hours, grid operators and utilities can pay for other assets, including
Resource Adequacy
energy storage, to incrementally defer or reduce the need for new generation capacity and minimize
the risk of overinvestment in that area.
UTILITY SERVICES
Delaying, reducing the size of, or entirely avoiding utility investments in distribution system upgrades
Distribution Deferral
necessary to meet projected load growth on specific regions of the grid.
ISOs charge utilities to use congested transmission corridors during certain times of the day. Assets
Transmission
including energy storage can be deployed downstream of congested transmission corridors to
Congestion Relief
discharge during congested periods and minimize congestion in the transmission system.
Delaying, reducing the size of, or entirely avoiding utility investments in transmission system
Transmission Deferral
upgrades necessary to meet projected load growth on specific regions of the grid.
CUSTOMER SERVICES
of these services creates benefits for ISOs/RTOs and
utilities, as well. When energy storage either maximizes
users to alter their metered load profile in a way that
lowers overall system production costs.
In the event of grid failure, energy storage paired with a local generator can provide backup power at
Demand Charge
multiple scales, ranging from second-to-second power quality maintenance for industrial operations
Reduction
to daily backup for residential customers.
In the event of grid failure, energy storage paired with a local generator can provide backup power at
Backup Power multiple scales, ranging from second-to-second power quality maintenance for industrial operations
to daily backup for residential customers.
MOUN
KY
TA
ROC
IN
Fitzgerald, Garre,, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve Toua1. The Economics of BaAery Energy Storage: How mulH-use, customer-sited
baAeries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain Ins1tute, September 2015. <<h,p://www.rmi.org/
electricity_ba,ery_value>>
behind the meter, at the distribution level, or at the the electricity system as possible when examining
transmission level. Energy storage deployed at all levels the economics of energy storage and analyze how
on the electricity system can add value to the grid. those economics change depending on where energy
However, customer-sited, behind-the-meter energy storage is deployed on the grid.
FIGURE ES2
BATTERIES CAN PROVIDE
UP TO 13 SERVICES TO THREE
STAKEHOLDER GROUPS
Energy
Backup Power Arbitrage
Spin /
Non-Spin
ES
Increased Reserve
IC
PV Self-
IS
Consumption
RV
O
/R
SE
Frequency
Regulation
T
ER
OS
OM
ERV
CUST
Demand
Service not
Charge
ICES
Reduction possible Voltage
Support
Service not
possible
Time-of-Use Black
Bill Start
Management CENTRALIZED
TRANSMISSION
Transmission Transmission
Deferral Congestion Relief
DISTRIBUTED
U TI LIT Y S E R V I C E S
MOUN
KY
TA
ROC
IN
10
Interstate Natural Gas Associa1on of America asserts that
more than $313 billion in mid-stream gas infrastructure (e.g., gas pipelines)
will be needed by 2035.
As is the case for gas production, the growth of oil and NGL production is adversely affected by the
h,p://movingforward.discoursemedia.org/cost-of-commute-calculator-data/
Biomimicry Inspired an1reec1ve glass
Deloi,e highest BREEM score Amsterdam
EEI U1lity Death Spirl
Gartner Hypercycle 2014 emerging technology
Gartner Hypercycle 2015 emerging technology
Gerrard Hassan wind turbine size increases
AWEA
WIND AND WATER POWER TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE
Note: Figure only includes the countries with the most installed wind
power capacity at the end of 2014
9
Geographic Spread of Wind Projects in the
United States Is Reasonably Broad
Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in brackets, annual additions in 2014
10
Texas Installed the Most Capacity in 2014;
9 States Exceed 12% Wind Energy
Percentage of
Installed Capacity (MW)
In-State Generation
Annual (2014) Cumulative (end of 2014) Actual (2014)* Texas has more than twice
Texas 1,811 Texas 14,098 Iowa 28.5%
Oklahoma 648 California 5,917 South Dakota 25.3% as much wind capacity as
Iowa 511 Iowa 5,688 Kansas 21.7%
Michigan 368 Oklahoma 3,782 Idaho 18.3% any other state
Nebraska 277 Illinois 3,568 North Dakota 17.6%
11
Interconnection Queues Demonstrate that
a Substantial Amount of Wind Is Under
Consideration
5
Towers (estimated through 2010)
Wind-powered generating sets
Exports of wind-
powered generating
Billion 2014$US
4
sets increased
3 modestly in 2014 to
2
$488 billion; no ability
to track other wind-
1 specific exports, but
0 total tower exports
2006
2457 MW
2007
5253 MW
2008 2009 2010
8362 MW 10005 MW 5216 MW
2011 2012 2013
6820 MW 13131 MW 1087 MW
2014
4854 MW equalled $116 million
Figure only includes tracked trade categories; misses other wind-related imports
See full report for the assumptions used to generate this figure
20
The Project Finance Environment
Remained Strong in 2014
12%
10%
Tax Equity Yield (after-tax)
8%
15-Year Debt Interest Rate (pre-tax)
6%
4%
0%
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
90% 90%
80% 80%
70% 70%
IOU:
60% 60% 2,497 MW
Merchant: (51%)
50% 50%
1,613 MW
40% On-Site 40% (33%)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
28
Even Controlling for These Factors,
Average Capacity Factors for Projects
Built After 2005 Have Been Stagnant,
Averaging 32% to 35% Nationwide
60% Weighted Average (by project vintage)
2014 Capacity Factor (by project vintage)
40%
30%
20%
10%
Sample includes 591 projects totaling 58.5 GW
0%
Vintage: 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
# projects: 25 27 38 28 20 37 79 96 48 68 117 8
# MW: 921 1,760 1,988 3,652 1,708 5,282 8,498 9,578 4,733 5,917 13,533 969
35
Controlling for Wind Resource Quality and
Commercial Operation Date Demonstrates
Impact of Turbine Evolution
Weighted-Avg. Realized Capacity Factor in 2014
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
Highest Wind Resource Quality
15%
Higher Wind Resource Quality
10% Medium Wind Resource Quality
5% Lower Wind Resource Quality
0%
1998-992000-012002-032004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Project Vintage
40%
30%
20%
10%
Sample includes 124 projects built in 2012-13 and totaling 14.4 GW
0%
West Northeast Great Lakes Interior
32 projects 15 projects 18 projects 59 projects
3,938 MW 1,147 MW 2,109 MW 7,253 MW
39
Wind PPA Prices Have Reached All-Time
Lows, Dominated by Interior Region
Interior (20,611 MW, 212 contracts)
$120
West (7,124 MW, 72 contracts)
Levelized PPA Price (2014 $/MWh)
$60
$40
$20
75 MW
$0
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
PPA Execution Date
49
A Smoother Look at the Time Trend Shows
Steep Decline in Pricing Since 2009;
Especially Low Pricing in Interior Region
$100
Average Levelized PPA Price (Real 2014 $/MWh)
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
Nationwide Interior
$20
Great Lakes West
$10 Northeast
$0
PPA Year: 1996-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Contracts: 10 17 24 30 30 26 39 49 48 42 14 26 13
MW: 553 1,249 1,382 2,190 2,311 1,781 3,465 4,048 4,642 4,572 985 3,674 1,768
50
Relative Competitiveness of Wind Power
Improved in 2014: Comparison to
Wholesale Electricity Prices
100
Wind project sample includes projects
90 with PPAs signed from 2003-2014
80
70
2014 $/MWh
60
50
40
30
20
Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (by calendar year)
10
Generation-Weighted Average Levelized Wind PPA Price (by year of PPA execution)
0
PPA year: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Contracts: 9 13 17 30 26 39 49 48 42 14 26 13
MW: 570 547 1,643 2,311 1,781 3,465 4,048 4,642 4,572 985 3,674 1,768
Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes across the U.S.
51 Price comparison shown here is far from perfect see full report for caveats
Comparison Between Wholesale Prices
and Wind PPA Prices Varies by Region
100 Average 2014 Wholesale Power Price Range Notes: Wind PPAs
90 Individual Project Levelized Wind PPA Price
included are those
80 Generation-Weighted Average Levelized Wind PPA Price
signed from 2012-
70
2014 $/MWh
60
2014. Within a
50 region there are a
40 range of wholesale
30 prices because
20 multiple price hubs
10
Wind project sample includes projects with PPAs signed in 2012-2014
exist in each area;
0
Interior Great Lakes Northeast West Total US price comparison
37 projects 10 projects 1 project 5 projects 53 projects shown here is far
5,275 MW 755 MW 69 MW 329 MW 6,427 MW
from perfect see
Wind PPA prices most competitive with wholesale full report for
prices in the Interior region caveats
52
Recent Wind Prices Are Hard to Beat:
Competitive with Expected Future Cost of
Burning Fuel in Natural Gas Plants
100
Range of AEO15 gas price projections
90 AEO15 reference case gas price projection
80 Wind 2012 PPA execution (985 MW, 14 contracts)
70 Wind 2013 PPA execution (3,674 MW, 26 contracts)
2014 $/MWh
57
Solid Progress on Overcoming
Transmission Barriers Continued
Over 2,000 circuit miles of new transmission built in 2014; lower than 2013
but consistent with 2009-2012
22,000 additional circuit miles proposed by March 2017, with half having a
high probability of completion
AWEA has identified 18 near-term transmission projects that if all were
completed could carry 55-60 GW of additional wind power capacity
FERC continued to
implement Order 1000,
requiring public utility
transmission providers to
improve planning
processes and determine a
cost allocation
methodology for new
transmission investments
58
System Operators Are Implementing
Methods to Accommodate Increased APS (2007)
$18
Avista (2007)
BPA (2009) [a]
BPA (2011) [a]
BPA (2013)
CA RPS (2006) [b]
$16 ERCOT (2012)
Integrating wind
EWITS (2010)
Idaho Power (2007)
energy into
MN-MISO (2006) [c]
$12 Nebraska (2010)
NorthWestern (2012)
is manageable,
$8
PacifiCorp (2012)
PacifCorp (2014)
$6 Portland GE (2011)
additional costs $2
We Energies (2003)
Xcel-MNDOC (2004)
Xcel-PSCo (2006)
$0 Xcel-PSCo (2008)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Xcel-PSCo (2011) [d]
Wind Penetration (Capacity Basis) Xcel-UWIG (2003)
Notes: Because methods vary and a consistent set of operational impacts has not been
included in each study, results from the different analyses of integration costs are not fully
comparable. There has been some recent literature questioning the methods used to estimate
wind integration costs and the ability to disentangle those costs explicitly, while also highlighting
the fact that other generating options also impose integration challenges and costs.
59
Sizable Wind Additions Anticipated for
2015 & 2016; Downturn and Increased
Uncertainty in 2017 and Beyond
62
Utility-Scale Solar 2014
An Empirical Analysis of
Project Cost, Performance,
and Pricing Trends in the
United States
3
Historically heavy concentration in the Southwest
and mid-Atlantic, but now spreading to Southeast
Primarily fixed-tilt
c-Si projects in the
East
Total MW share:
1) CA 59%
2) AZ 17%
3) NV 5%
4) NM 4%
5) TX 3%
4
Median installed price of PV has fallen steadily, by more
than 50%, to around $3/WAC ($2.3/WDC) in 2014
10 Capacity-Weighted Average (DC)
9 Median (DC)
Individual Projects (DC)
Installed Price (2014 $/W)
0
2007-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
n=5 (75 MW-AC) n=10 (175 MW-AC) n=29 (428 MW-AC) n=38 (875 MW-AC) n=33 (1,269 MW-AC) n=55 (3,052 MW-AC)
Installation Year
Installed prices are shown here in both DC and AC terms, but because AC is more relevant to the utility
sector, all metrics used in the rest of this slide deck are expressed solely in AC terms
The lowest 20th percentile fell from $3.2/WAC in 2013 to $2.3/WAC in 2014
Capacity-weighted average prices were pushed higher in 2014 by several very large projects that had
been under construction for several years (but only entered our sample in 2014, once complete)
This sample is backward-looking and may not reflect the price of projects built in 2015/2016
8
Installed price decline led primarily by c-Si
9
Fixed-Tilt c-Si Tracking c-Si
8
Fixed-Tilt Thin-Film Tracking Thin-Film
Installed Price (2014 $/WAC)
7 CPV All PV
2
Markers represent medians, with 20th and 80th percentiles.
1
0
2007-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
n=5 (75 MW-AC) n=10 (175 MW-AC) n=29 (428 MW-AC) n=38 (875 MW-AC) n=33 (1,269 MW-AC) n=55 (3,052 MW-AC)
Installation Year
Pricing has converged among the various mounting/module configurations over time
Not surprisingly, tracking appears to be slightly more expensive than fixed-tilt (at least for c-Si)
Large 80/20 range of fixed-tilt thin-film in 2014 reflects several mega-projects with high prices
The two CPV projects built in 2011 and 2012 were priced similar to PV at the time
9
Bottom-up modeled installed prices
are lower than our empirical data
$2.5 2.37 2.25
System Cost or Price (2014 $/W-DC)
0.14
1.99 1.99
$2.0 0.46 1.88
0.82 0.33 0.36
0.36
$1.5 0.52 0.34
0.59 0.26
0.58 0.43 0.48 0.37
$1.0
0.27
0.18 0.13 0.13 0.18
0.11
$0.5
0.66 0.71 0.71 0.66 0.72
$0.0
LBNL 2014 25 MW-DC Single- NREL 2014 20 MW-DC Single- NREL 2014 100 MW-DC Single- BNEF Q4 2014 Utility Project in GTM H2 2014 10 MW-DC
Axis Tracking Project Price in Axis Tracking Project Cost in Axis Tracking Project Cost (U.S. California (incl. Developer Single-Axis Tracking Project
Southwest Southwest with Union Labor National Average) Margins) Cost in California (excl.
Development)
Modules Inverter Tracker, Structural BOS, Interconnection, Transmission Design, EPC, Labor, PII Other
Prices presented here in DC terms, to be consistent with how presented by NREL, BNEF, GTM
Empirical LBNL project (far left) is most-expensive at $2.37/WDC, despite reporting among the lowest module costs
($0.66/WDC)
Largest discrepancy is in EPC category perhaps reflecting forward-looking modeling vs. backward-looking empirical
data (sample LBNL project achieved commercial operation in 2014)
There are also discrepancies in terms of what costs are captured by the various modeled estimates relative to the
empirical data (e.g., development costs, financing costs)
There is fairly substantial variation even among the various bottom-up modeled estimates
11
Not much movement in the installed price of CSP
12
27.5% average sample-wide PV net capacity factor,
but with large project-level range (from 15%-35%)
35% Capacity-Weighted Average (all projects)
Individual Project (c-Si)
Cumulative Net Capacity Factor
30%
Individual Project (thin-film)
25%
20%
15%
Sample includes 128 projects totaling 3,201 MWAC that came online from 2007-2013
10%
14 projects
10 projects
11 projects
13 projects
15 projects
2 projects
3 projects
4 projects
5 projects
9 projects
4 projects
6 projects
6 projects
8 projects
9 projects
8 projects
ILR1.275 377 MW
1 project
ILR<1.2 156 MW
1.2-1.275 100 MW
1.2-1.275 492 MW
ILR1.275 150 MW
1.2-1.275 465 MW
ILR1.275 125 MW
ILR<1.2 122 MW
ILR1.275 648 MW
ILR<1.2 182 MW
ILR<1.2 19 MW
1.2-1.275 89 MW
1.2-1.275 36 MW
ILR<1.2 59 MW
ILR<1.2 67 MW
ILR1.275 89 MW
1.2-1.275 26 MW
5%
0% ILR1.275
14
Levelized PPA prices have fallen by
more than two-thirds since 2009
Levelized PPA Price (Real 2014 $/MWh)
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
PPA Execution Date
Smaller projects (e.g., 20
300
MW) no less competitive
Levelized PPA Price (Real 2014 $/MWh)
Generation-Weighted Average
250
Individual Contract CPV and CSP largely
200 competitive at the time, but
150
little visibility recently
100
>75% of the sample is
currently operational
50
Broadening of the market in
0
PPA Year: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 (AR, AL, FL)
Contracts: 1 1 3 16 29 12 10 15 9 12
MW: 7 5 770 1,738 1,956 1,457 861 492 449 885
17
PV PPA prices generally decline over time in real
dollar terms, in contrast to fuel cost projections
Gen-Weighted Average PPA Price (2014 $/MWh)
250
2007
2006 (7 MW, 1 PPA) ~70% of PV sample has flat
200
(5 MW, 1 PPA) annual PPA pricing (in nominal
2009 (956 MW, 13 PPAs)
2008 (770 MW, 3 PPAs)
dollars), while the rest
150 escalate at low rates
2010 (1,676 MW, 28 PPAs)
100
Thus, average PPA prices
2013 (492 MW, 15 PPAs) 2011 (1,177 MW, 11 PPAs) decline over time in real
2012 (861 MW, 10 PPAs)
50 2014 (449 MW, 9 PPAs)
dollar terms (top graph)
2015 (885 MW, 12 PPAs)
0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Bottom graph compares 2014-
80 and 2015-vintage PPA prices
70 to range of gas price
60 projections from AEO 2015,
2014 $/MWh
50 showing that
40
PV can compete with even
30
Overall range of AEO 2015 gas price projections (converted to $/MWh terms) just the fuel costs of gas-fired
20 AEO 2015 reference case gas price projection (converted to $/MWh terms)
10 Average price over time among sample of PV PPAs signed in 2014 (9 contracts, 449 MW)
generation, and also provides
0
Average price over time among sample of PV PPAs signed in 2015 (12 contracts, 885 MW) a long-term hedge against
potential fuel cost increases
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
18
Apparent deep market at these low PPA prices
Austin Energy:
600 MW solar RFP received 7,976 MW response (33 bidders, 149 proposals)
Almost 1,300 MW were offered at levelized prices of $45/MWh or less.
NV Energy:
200 MW renewable RFP received 2,537 MW response (90% of which was PV)
Two 100 MW winners ~$40/MWh levelized; others reportedly at similar prices
19
Looking ahead: utility-scale pipeline has grown, driven by an
expanding market outside of the Southwest
20 Entered queue in 2014 Total in queue at end of 2014 Graphs show solar and other capacity in 35
interconnection queues across the US:
150
10 50
0
Gas Wind Solar Nuclear Coal Other
5
0
California Southwest Texas Southeast Central Northeast Northwest
(NV, AZ, UT, CO, NM)
44.6 GW of solar was in the queues at the end of 2014 (up from 39.5 GW at end of 2013): more than 5
times the installed solar capacity in our project population at the end of 2014
Solar was in third place in the queues, behind natural gas and wind
Expanding market: Texas and Southeast had more new entrants than California or Southwest in 2014;
other three regions saw an unprecedented influx of new solar capacity in 2014 as well
Not all of this capacity will be built! (but much of what is will likely be built prior to 2017)
21
HYDROGEN FUEL CELL mari1me use
Ligh1ng quality factors
Nature, global
clusters
networks
Nature 2015
Nature 2015
NZE neighborhood design
onion-like nanopar1cle converts infrared energy to electricity, 2015
pierre-jean cherret con1nuous energy mgnt
pierre-jean cherret home area network
In the next three years, China plans to shu,er 4,300 coal mines,
eliminate outdated produc1on capacity of 700 million tons and relocate
1 million employees, according to the report. The central government
has earmarked CNY 30 billion ($4.57 billion) for the reloca1on.
In the past ve years, China has cut some 560 million tons of coal
produc1on capacity and closed 7,250 coal mines, according to the
Na1onal Coal Associa1on.
China had approximately 11,000 coal mines at the end of 2015 with a
total capacity of 5.7 billion tons. Of these, around 1,000 had annual
capacity of more than 1.2 million tons some 400 more than in 2010.
The country is nevertheless leading the way in embracing green energy.
China was the biggest investor in clean energy last year, channeling
$110.5 billion into the sector and accoun1ng for 17% of the total global
clean energy investment.
h,p://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/china-to-slash-
coal-produc1on-amidst-falling-demand_100022904/#ixzz3y1sPppxi
CHANGE READINESS MATRIX
100 PERCENT SOLAR/WIND/EFF
100
Leadership Change Capacity
0
0 Organiza0on Change Capacity 100
h,p://www.ascd.org/publica1ons/books/109019/chapters/The-Organiza1onal-Change-Readiness-Assessment.aspx
CHANGE READINESS MATRIX
100
Leadership Change Capacity
Ready for Ready for
Learning Change
0
0 Organiza0on Change Capacity 100
h,p://www.ascd.org/publica1ons/books/109019/chapters/The-Organiza1onal-Change-Readiness-Assessment.aspx
POLITICAL POWER corrup0on
CORPORATE GREED Corrup0on
MEDIA LYING Corrup0on
CHANGE READINESS MATRIX
100
Leadership Change Capacity
Ready for Ready for
Learning Change
0
0 Organiza0on Change Capacity 100
h,p://www.ascd.org/publica1ons/books/109019/chapters/The-Organiza1onal-Change-Readiness-Assessment.aspx
CITIZEN DEMOCRACY
VS
PLUTOCRATIC OLIGARCHY
Deriving Energy Services varying footprint sizes
Bicycle
2500 miles per gallon (mpg)
(in kilocalories of food)