ISSN: 2311-5963

Original Article

Terrorism and Its Impact on Economy

of Pakistan
Samreen Lodhi1, Qurrat-ul-Ain Qureshi2
Lecturer, Business Administration Department, Jinnah University for Women.
2
Student, Business Administration Department, Jinnah University for Women.

Keywords: GDP, Tourism,
Terrorism
Article info
Published Dec 26, 2016
Received Feb16, 2016
Accepted July 10, 2016
Correspondence
Samreen Lodhi
Jinnah University for
Women, Karachi,
samreenlodhi@live.com
ABSTRACT
After freedom, Pakistan has faced a lot of economic, social
and safety issues, but the economy moved toward boom.
Many industries like cotton, carpet, cottage, textile,
handicrafts and other industry had grown and help to make
the country more prosperous. But after the attack of 11th
September 2001, these problems have transformed into
internal threat like religious extremism, political
unsteadiness, violence and inflation. Then the economy
moves toward recession, the rate of gross domestic product
was started to decline, producer shift its factories to
Bangladesh, many families lost their love ones during the
targeting killing, drones attack and bomb blasts and
because of the law and order condition. This research
seeks to find out the impact of terrorism on the economy of
Pakistan, the ways to decrease the anxiety and effects of
terrorism for social good fortune. Terrorism is one of the
social evils not only for Pakistan but also for all over the
world that destructively hit the society. The data is
qualitatively analyzed through the implication of correlation
and regression test and the results conclude that one of the
most horrible impacts on the Pakistani society of the war on
terror has been that religious prejudice has become wild;
people have taken the law in their hands, weaponization is
common.

1. INTRODUCTIO
N

The word 'Terrorism' is a term used to explain the utmost degrees of unlawful
actions or coercions where the majority of inhabitants are affected and the maximum
degree of financial deed is disturbed. Though, this is not the last and approved
description of the word terrorism.

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Sectarian violence is a form of communal violence inspired by sectarianism, that

is, between diverse sects of one particular mode of philosophy or religion within a
nation/community. Religious separation often plays a role in sectarian violence.
After freedom, Pakistan has faced a lot of economic, social and safety issues, but
the economy moved toward boom. According to (Husain, 2004) outside aid flows had
been negative; debt servicing expenses reaching to almost $9 billion during the two years
earlier to September 2001. It was made out of the countrys own capitals and within the
timeframe decided upon. Foreign exchange reserves increased to $3.2 billion by June
2001 from $1.7 billion. Inflation was controlled to approximately 4.4%. Exports improved
from $7.8 billion in FY99 to $9.2 billion. Tax incomes showed a remarkable increase of
roughly Rs100 billion - from Rs.308 billion to Rs.392 billion by June, 2001, a 14% yearly
growth. Fiscal deficit was brought down to 5.3% of GDP from 6.1%. Current account had
turned excess to 0.6% of GDP from a deficit of 3.8%. The exchange rate had become
constant since June 2001.
But after the attack of 11th September 2001, these problems have transformed
into internal threat. Sectarian killing is one of the biggest threat, as many as 4,000 people
are estimated to have been killed in Shia-Sunni sectarian war in Pakistan. Because of
this brutality, the economy moves toward recession, the rate of gross domestic product
was started to decline, producer shift its factories to Bangladesh, many families lost their
love ones during the killing, drones attack and bomb blasts.
This research topic is selected because Pakistan has long been a staging ground
and planning center for terrorists. According to (Global terrorism index , 2014) Pakistan
is the 3rd most affected country after Iran and Afghanistan.
1.1 Problem Statement
The main reason of the study is to find out the impact of terrorism on the
economy of a developing country like Pakistan. This is an effort to discover the impacts of
terrorism and how they badly ruined the economy and industries.
1.2 Significance Of Study
Terrorism plays an important role in demolishing the economy of Pakistan. This
study helps in revealing the updated facts and figures like the attack on Colonel (Retd)
ShujaKhanzada (Punjab home minister) Kurri Road incident (Rawalpindi) and many
more.
1.3 Objectives
To identify the relationship between terrorism and economy
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To identify the effects of bomb blast and sectarian killing.

1.4 Limitation
The variables like education, foreign direct investment, textile sector and some
others are not included in this study. So if anyone wants to choose this topic for their
research so they can choose these variables.
1.5 Scope of Study
The scope of study is to find the possible solutions that turn the ship of state around.
This study will help the students and crime journalist in near future. They can easily
collect facts and figures from the research paper.

2. LITERATURE
REVIEW
According to the various researchers terrorism creates a negative impact on the
tourism especially on the hotel business, not just the rising nation faces the problem but
also the developed nations suffer (Konar, 2014). After the blast on Marriott hotel other
countries banned their people on visiting Pakistan because at least 13 foreigners were
killed during this attack. A survey was conducted and interviewed 118 employees of hotel
industry who hurt due to terrorism. According to the study workers believes that hotel are
the easiest target for the terrorist and the most unsafe place for the public.
According to Daraz, (2012) after the 9/11 attack US made the policy which affect
the social life and the economy badly. Swat was the most affected area of Pakistan many
blameless people lost their life during the different blasts. The survey was organized in
swat, 180 interviews had been taken to find those factors which encourage terrorism.
During the research Fatima, (2014) showed that Terrorism is the most important
problem for the developing countries and it increased bit by bit. The core of this analysis
is to show a relationship the economic condition of Pakistan and India. As match up to
India, Pakistan sacrifices a large number on of human life in this battle. ADF experiment
has been productive to see the co integration between Pakistan and India. Results show
that the interference of India damage Pakistan.
Pakistan is the hot spot for the tourist, but brutality ruined the things to see. Job
loss, community and pecuniary controversy have been provoked. Many enterprises are
also associated with tourism industry like hotel, airline etc. According to Baker, (2014) his
study linked the association between factors and decision making process of choosing
the destination.

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According to Mushtaq, (2014) the study was conducted to conclude the affiliation
between tourism, political instability and terrorism in SAARC countries from 1995-2012.
Different panel techniques have been used for strong analysis. One technique shows that
there is an encouraging impact on tourism both long and short run, although there is also
an unconstructive impact of political instability on tourism. The outcome suggests that
understanding of the political issues can help to resolve the dilemma and stable the
tourism industry.
SANDLER, (2008) Identifies the impact of terrorism on per capita salary in Asia.
Consistent blast, the per capita income was decrease by 1.5%. Indistinct variables are
attached with smaller amount of significant investment shares and blown up outlay, with
the crowding-in of administration penalty being the leading power.
The survey was organized to find out the major factors which reduce the tourist in Gilgit,
Baltistan. Sectarianism is the mainly vital dilemma which closes the door for the tourist,
most recent upgrading in system wills helps to bring back tourism sector and reduce
tension in this region.
Pakistan is facing the after effects of Afghan war, which provoked the religious,
ethnic and linguistic conflicts Padd, (2015). Co-integration investigation has been applied,
the results show that aid, grants and debts rescheduling can help to improve the
economic condition.
Zaman, (2013) aimed is to explore the macroeconomic cost of terrorism in
Pakistan. The study analyzed the long term and short term affiliation between terrorism
and economic elements an era of 19752011. The end result confesses that
macroeconomic element that is populace increase cost point; scarcity and supporting
unsteadiness is the reason of terrorism prevalence in Pakistan. Somehow, Pakistan's
macroeconomic indicators have major long-run stability with terrorism prevalence.
Study analyzed the effect of elements like foreign direct investment (FDI), export,
replacement rate, terrorism and supporting unsteadiness on the financial advances in
Pakistan on the base of yearly data from 1973 to 2010. Outcome from (ADF) experiment
presented the proof of a unit root dilemma in the statistics. The experimental judgments
additional exposed that FDI, exports and exchange rate absolutely affected the financial
development in Pakistan and, terrorism and supporting unsteadiness harmfully impacted
the monetary development of Pakistan. Iqbal, (2013)
According to Rabbi, (2012) joining the US led alliance in the battle in favor of
terrorism has a lot of influence for Pakistan. The coalition facilitated Pakistan to conquer
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the approval, to obtain monetary in addition to martial support and to end it worldwide
separation. The oppose terrorism beside terrorists and militancy within the nation further
corporate unsteadiness and lifted community troubles that prevailed constant to
overwhelmed the public. Therefore, Pakistan is measured as one of the fiscal and tactical
scum in the mass system that has emerged while 9/11.
According to Afza, (2014) purpose of his study is to examine the FDI
determinants in Pakistan from the year of 1980 to 2010. As predicted, the conclusion
inveterate that supporting unsteadiness and terrorism have harmful pressure while gas
generation has encouraging influence on Pakistans FDI inflows. The organize variables
of GDP, incentives presented to investors and trade directness have positively impacted
on FDI inflows where exchange rate and price rises rate have negative relationship with
FDI inflows.
According to Chughtai, (2013) Pakistan is playing an important part in managing
uprising and war against terrorism in its Federally Administrative Tribal Area (FATA)
because of the sensitive conflicts from the time when the 9/11event happened. The
purpose of this research is to find the effects of terrorism on the social, economic, and
political structure of the people of FATA. The research base on the information collected
through the questionnaire for a sample of two hundred persons. The result highlights the
huge demolition of the area, therefore the high cost of terrorism paid by the people.
Supporting shortage and lack of contribution in judgment making for area improvement
have enlarged the space among the citizens and the government. On the other hand,
Pakistan Army has been successfully clear the area.
According to Javaid, (2011) after the 9/11, Pakistan became a lead state in US
war on terror but since becoming an associate it has played a critical role in this war.
Unhappily, the war on terror is not limited to Afghanistan, now, it has entered into
Pakistan also, where in its tribal belt and FATA region (Federally Administered Tribal
Areas), and huge amount of force had enter and taken safe haven from Afghanistan due
to the continuing war over there. These militants have been creating severe safety
troubles leading to military operations against them by the Pakistan military. This paper is
an attempt to look into the effects of war on terror on this country and to analyze the
concerns of Pakistan.
According to Ahmar, (2007) the history of sectarian clashes in Pakistan is not
new. The consolidation of sectarian distribute in Pakistan was witnessed during late
1970s and early 1980s because of local governmental fluctuations and the associations
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of Islamic uprising in Iran and the subsequent unfavourable response in Arab states to
the assumption of supremacy by ministry operating from the holy city of Qum. The armed
government of General Mohammad Zia-ul-Haq, which detained power on July 5, 1977,
followed a rule of Islamization resultant into the deepening of sectarian division between
Sunnis and Shiites on the one hand and among different Sunni groups on the other. The
research paper focus on the background of sectarian split in Pakistan and how sectarian
division between the Sunni and Shiites communities impacted on state and society
A survey conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan, to examine the main reason of speedy
turn down in the inflow of tourists, which has negatively affected the tourism sector, since
last decade. The linkage of the reduction in tourist inflow with sectarianism was
investigated by conducting surveys on cultural diversity; and subsequent changes in the
ratio of incoming tourists, influences of sectarian clashes; war and terror, to attain the
final conclusion. The findings of our study showed, that the prolonged local sectarian
clashes seem to be the main causes of tourism down fall. In addition to the sectarian
clashes, political unsteadiness; and war against terrorism in country, is the noticeable
causes, which contribute to uncooperative marketing for the troubled area.

3. METHODOLOGY
Quantitative research is designed to disclose a target audiences range of
behavior and the perceptions that drive it with reference to specific topics or issues.
Quantitative research approach is use in this study to determine the factors impacting
Terrorism in Pakistan.
3.1 Research Model

3.2 Hypothesis

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Ho1: There is a no relationship between bomb blast killing and Gdp.

HA1: There is a relationship between no of bomb blast killing and GDP.
Ho2: Bomb blast negatively effect on tourism.
HA2: Bomb blast positively effect on tourism.
Ho3: There is a negative impact of sectarian killing on GDP
HA3: There is a positive impact of sectarian killing on GDP
Ho4: There is no significant effect of Sectarian killing on tourism.
HA4: There is a significant effect of Sectarian killing on tourism.

3.3 Data Description

This study is based on secondary data. The data is gathered through the tourism
development corporation of Pakistan, state bank of Pakistan, ministry of finance, ministry
of interior.

4. DATA ANALYSIS
The rationale of the paper is to identify the impact of terrorism on the economy of
Pakistan. The analysis of the study is discussed below with their statistical values.
Outcomes of all tests against all hypotheses are presented in the table and the
discussion about the acceptance and rejection of the hypothesis is followed by. A version
of SPSS 20 is used to find the outcomes. Descriptive analysis, Pearsons, Spearman,
correlation, coefficient and regression is used to find out the impact of terrorism on the
economy of Pakistan.
Ho1: There is a no relationship between bomb blast killing and Gdp.
HA1: There is a relationship between no of bomb blast killing and Gdp.
CORRELATIONS
GDP Bomb blast killing
Pearson Correlation 1 -.522*
GDP Sig. (2-tailed) .038
N 16 16
Pearson Correlation -.522* 1
Bomb blast killing Sig. (2-tailed) .038
N 16 16
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Regression 16.795 1 16.795 5.240 .038b
1 Residual 44.874 14 3.205
Total 61.669 15
a. Dependent Variable: GDP
b. Predictors: (Constant), bomb blast killing

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COEFFICIENTS a
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.
Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta
(Constant) 5.713 .702 8.133 .000
1 Bomb blast
-.002 .001 -.522 -2.289 .038
killing
a. Dependent Variable: GDP

ANALYSIS #1
Reference to the tables, the level of significance is .038; which is less than 0.05
therefore the null hypothesis (Ho1) is reject. Hence there is a relationship between bomb
blast killing and Gdp. It shows that there is a negative relation between the bomb blast
killing and Gdp because the correlation is -0.002. The adverse relationship because war
was spread all over the country. According to the rough estimation Pakistan incurred the
loss of almost $67.926 billion in last 12 years.
EQUATION #1
Bomb blast killing = 5.713-0.002 GDP

Ho2: Bomb blast negatively effect on tourism.

HA2: Bomb blast positively effect on tourism.

CORRELATIONS
Bomb blast killing Tourism receipts
Pearson Correlation 1 .726**
Bomb blast killing Sig. (1-tailed) .001
N 16 16
Pearson Correlation .726** 1
Tourism receipts Sig. (1-tailed) .001
N 16 16
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (1-tailed).

ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 86373.158 1 86373.158 15.611 .001b
Residual 77460.032 14 5532.859

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Total 163833.190 15
a. Dependent Variable: Tourism receipts
b. Predictors: (Constant), bomb blast killing

COEFFICIENTSA
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.
Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta
(Constant) 123.466 29.182 4.231 .001
1 Bomb blast
.125 .032 .726 3.951 .001
killing
a. Dependent Variable: Tourism receipts

ANALYSIS #2
Reference to the tables, the level of significance is 0.01; which is less than 0.05
therefore the null hypothesis (H o2) is rejected. Hence Bomb blast positively effect on
tourismandit shows that there is a positive relation between the n bomb blast killing and
tourism receipts because the correlation is 0.125. In reference to table number 4 in
appendixes, the tourism receipts increasing. Only in 2010 9 lacks tourist visited Pakistan
to see the natural beauty and enjoy every moment of the trip.

EQUATION #2:
Bomb blast = 123.466 + 0.125Tourism

Ho3: There is a negative impact of sectarian killing on Gdp.

HA3: There is a positive impact of sectarian killing on Gdp.
CORRELATIONS
GDP Sectarian killing
Pearson Correlation 1 -.342
GDP Sig. (1-tailed) .097
N 16 16
Pearson Correlation -.342 1
Sectarian killing Sig. (1-tailed) .097
N 16 16

ANOVA A
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Regression 7.209 1 7.209 1.853 .195b

1 Residual 54.461 14 3.890

Total 61.669 15

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a. Dependent Variable: GDP

b. Predictors: (Constant), sectarian killing

COEFFICIENTS A

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.

Coefficients
B Std. Beta
Error
1 (Constant) 5.724 1.042 5.491 .000
Sectarian killing -.005 .003 -.342 -1.361 .195
a. Dependent Variable: GDP

ANALYSIS#3
Reference to the tables, the level of significance is 0.195 and 0.097; which is
greater than 0.05 therefore the null hypothesis (H o3) is failed to reject. Hence there is a
negative impact of Sectarian killing on Gdp. It shows that there is an adverse impact of
Sectarian killing on Gdp because the correlation is -0.005.Last two eras witnessed a
scary increase in the Shia-Sunni sectarian violence in Pakistan, the both sects left
hundreds dead and thousands injured, containing Iranian diplomats, senior state
functionaries and main religious leaders.Violence on the basis of culture and
sectarianism has harmful effects on the investment. Production losses have given birth to
problems of unemployment and decrease in tax generation, which has led us to rely on
debts to bridge the spreading budget deficit.
EQUATION#3
Sectarian killing = 5.724 0.005 GDP

Ho4: There is no significant effect of Sectarian killing on tourism.

HA4: There is a significant effect of Sectarian killing on tourism.

CORRELATIONS
sectarian Tourism receipts in
killing millions $

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Correlation
1.000 .100
Coefficient
sectarian killing Sig. (2-tailed) . .713
Spearman's N 16 16
rho Correlation
.100 1.000
Tourism receipts in Coefficient
millions$ Sig. (2-tailed) .713 .
N 16 16

ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Regression 7113.056 1 7113.056 .635 .439b
1 Residual 156720.134 14 11194.295
Total 163833.190 15
a. Dependent Variable: tourism receipts in millions $
b. Predictors: (Constant), sectarian killing

COEFFICIENTS a
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig.

B Std. Error Beta

(Constant) 186.329 41.990 4.437 .001

1
sectarian killing .271 .340 .208 .797 .439
a. Dependent Variable: tourism receipts in millions

ANALYSIS #4
Reference to the tables, the level of significance is 0.439 and0.713; which is
greater than 0.05 therefore the null hypothesis (H o4) is failed to reject. Hence there is a no
significant effect of Sectarian killing on tourism. Coefficient is 0.271 which shows a
positive relationship between the sectarian killing and tourism receipts .In reference to
table number 4 in appendix, tourism industry flourishes but according to the state bank
50% fall in tourist in 2014 of first six months but not because of sectarian killing,because
of the ongoing political situation and flooding.
EQUATION#4

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Sectarian killing = 186.329 + 0.271Tourism

5. CONCLUSION
Terrorism is the major threat to any country in the world. Pakistan is a country
which faces the most critical situation. Since 2001 thousands of innocent people lost their
lives and many families ruined during the war on terror, law and enforcement agencies
were unable to bring back law and order. There were 13,721 incidents from 2001 to 2013;
in Pakistan which is slightly fewer than Iraq. According to data released by the (US
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses for Terrorism ) Pakistan
ran the chart with 1,404 terrorist attacks in 2012, surpassing Iraq (1,271). Even
Afghanistan was at the back Pakistan at number three with 1,023 attacks. The most
affected areas were Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan more than one-third (33%) of
those attacks happened in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, followed by Baluchistan (23%), Fata
(19.6%) and Sindh (18%).The sectarian killing has severely affected every aspect of
community. On 16 February 2013, almost 110 persons were killed and 200 hurt after a
bomb hidden in a water tank blasted at a market in Hazara Town Quetta. After the attack
on Hazara community everyone became frightened and feel danger while they offer
prayers in mosque. The main factor that increase sectarian killing is religious guider
promotes Shia-Sunni conflicts instead of spreading love.
After numerous bomb blasts the economy move toward recession and as a result
foreign investor feel unsafe in Pakistan so, foreign direct investment has stopped,
investment in the new projects decreased and the investors plans to shifts its business to
other countries. Beside this local community also stop investment in the projects and take
out their money into the markets. Dramatically decrease in the investment creates panic
and disturbance in the country. If the government takes steps again terrorism so the cost
of governance is increased. Terrorism affects every industry like agriculture tourism,
textile and mining.
Travelling is the best way to reduce the anxiety and stress. Tourism plays an
central role in the growth of economy because it is the best source of earning foreign
exchange. Pakistan on the basis of its diverse culture, people, music, art and landscape
attract thousands of tourists. Before some years ago tourism is a growing industry of
Pakistan. Terrorism ruined the beauty of Pakistan they attack on the most beautiful place
of Swat, Peshawar, and Hazara. But due to war on terror tourist feel unsafe and it can
create a miss conception about the people of Pakistan and damage the reputation of the

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country. After the attack on Sri Lankas cricket team all the international teams were not
ready to played, the tourist who were attract through cricket had lost. Beside this local
people are not willing to travel Pakistan. Flood plays an important role in the collapse of
tourism industry. 22 million people become homeless in July 2010 floods. During floods
almost 277 persons including 6 local tourists lost their lives in Swat valley. Kalam was a
famous tourist endpoint famous for its land, view and natural attractiveness. Kalam had
some four hundred restaurants before the floods. Lots of which have been removed away
in the raging water.
Karachi is a city of light and hub of all economic activities, but due to law and
order conditions the local trade bodies were encourage the businesspersons for capital
outflow and start up businesses in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Due to this Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif and law and enforcement agencies decided to started ranger
operation in Karachi city firstly and then spread all over the country. In 2013 ranger
operation was started against land grabbers, target killers, blackmailers, kidnappers and
terrorists. After the attack on Karachi airport the nation of Pakistan wanted to live freely
and go everywhere they want, so in the reaction of public demand operation ZARB-E-
AZB was launched on 15th June 2014 in North Waziristan along the Pakistan-
Afghanistan border. On the reaction against operation ZARB-E-AZB, On 16 December
2014, seven terrorist of Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) conducted a terrorist attack on the Army
Public School of Peshawar. Gunmen killed 141 persons containing 132 students and nine
staff members and 133 others were injured. APS attack makes the nation unite, Army
chief, PM Nawaz Sharif and parliament decided to setting up a military court. On 13th
may the bloody day was raised, almost 45 innocent Isamili people were killed during the
Safoora Chowrangi bus Attack.
After these two major attacks the military court started a speedy trial of the killers.
Army chief confirmed the death sentence of 6 terrorists involved in APS attack and
Safoora attack.in this period ranger publish report, According to the reports Rangers had
claimed to have conducted 5,795 raids during which they had detained 10,353 suspects
and recovered 7,312 weapons and 34, 8978 rounds of bullets. Major raids were the ones
on Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) headquarters Nine-Zero and the offices of Sindh
Building Control Authority (SBCA). After the completion of operation ZARB-E-AZB, ISPR
released a report, according to the reports only in one year 2736 terrorist were killed
during the operation.

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After launching the various operation people feel safe, in this Eid-ul-fitar the Eid
shopping in Karachi has broken 10 years old record, the traders and customers give
credit to rangers and Pak Army. The traders said relief up to 95% decrease in extortion
and killing. Total of Rs. 90 billion had been invested on the occasion of Eid, business
projected to have reached Rs.850bn this season.
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