TO:

Interested Parties
FROM: Global Strategy Group
DATE: December 5, 2017
RE: POLL RESULTS Kate Browning is well-positioned in New Yorks 1st Congressional District


Democratic Suffolk County Legislator Kate Browning is in a strong initial position in her challenge to Republican
incumbent Congressman Lee Zeldin in New Yorks 1st Congressional District. Despite her limited name
recognition and a large registration advantage for Republicans, Browning is within reach of the well-known
incumbent. She has a proven ability to appeal to voters across the ideological spectrum and is popular in a
county legislative district carried by Trump. The district is also shifting away from the Republican Party
attitudinally and the Republican agenda on health care and taxes will be an anchor around Zeldins neck headed
into 2018.

KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:

Browning is already within striking distance of Zeldin: Despite having very little name recognition (only 21%
are currently familiar with her), Kate Browning only trails Lee Zeldin by 8 points (42% to 50%). She has a
wide lead over Zeldin among Democrats (71% to 19%), is essentially tied among Independents (45%
Browning to 47% Zeldin), and as a largely unknown quantity, is still preferred by a third of non-conservative
Republicans (32% to 58%).

Browning has plenty of room and the ability to increase her support: Browning will appeal to voters
regardless of party as more of the district gets to know her. Trump carried Brownings county legislative
district by 14 points, yet Browning is still extremely popular with her largely Republican constituents (58%
favorable/16% unfavorable in August 2017).

The district is moving away from Republicans: Zeldin cannot depend upon the districts Republican
registration advantage (+11 R). The GOP edge on partisan self-identification is only half that (+5 R) and the
generic vote is essentially tied (only +2 R). More voters also say that the Republican Party is moving further
away from their personal views (46%) than that is moving closer (only 24%). This includes most
Independents (51% further away/11% closer) and nearly half of all non-conservative Republicans (45%
further way/28% closer).

The Republican agenda will weigh down Zeldin: A majority oppose the Republican health care bill (24%
support/53% oppose). This includes most Democrats (-71 support), Independents (-48 support), and non-
conservative Republicans (-11 support). Since June, the focus of the GOP agenda has shifted to taxes. It is
unlikely that Republican tax plans are any more popular than their health care plan in a district where 46%
of taxpayers use the state and local tax deduction, and many also use the mortgage interest deduction.

ABOUT THIS POLL

Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 403 likely 2018 General Election voters in New Yorks 1st Congressional District
between June 24 June 27, 2017. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.9% for the entire sample and the
margin of error on sub-samples is greater.

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