Analisis de Mercado - 2 - Formulacion de Proyectos Mineros

1 oz.tr.
= 31,1035 gramos
1 kilo = 32,1507 onzas troy
1 tm = 2 204,6226 libras
1 libra = 453,5924 gramos
Precios de los Metales sugun el Ministerio de Energia y Minas
Demanda y la oferta segn: www.usgs.gov
ZINC DEMANDA OFERTA ORO DEMANDA OFERTA
2006 1130.00 10000.00 2006 185.00 2460.00
2007 1050.00 10900.00 2007 180.00 2380.00
2008 998.00 11600.00 2008 176.00 2260.00
2009 893.00 11200.00 2009 150.00 2450.00
2010 907.00 12000.00 2010 180.00 2560.00
2011 939.00 2800.00 2011 168.00 2660.00
2012 892.00 13500.00 2012 147.00 2690.00
2013 940.00 13400.00 2013 160.00 2800.00
2014 965.00 13300.00 2014 150.00 2990.00
2015 931.00 12900.00 2015 164.00 3100.00
2016 780.00 11900.00 2016 165.00 3100.00
Para diferentes metales de kitco.com:

de Energia y Minas http://www.minem.gob.pe/_detalle.php?idSector=1&id
PLATA DEMANDA OFERTA PLOMO DEMANDA OFERTA
2006 7550.00 20200.00 2006 1580.00 3470.00
2007 6880.00 20800.00 2007 1580.00 3770.00
2008 5950.00 21300.00 2008 1540.00 3840.00
2009 5360.00 21800.00 2009 1500.00 3860.00
2010 7220.00 23100.00 2010 1410.00 4140.00
2011 7910.00 23300.00 2011 1400.00 4700.00
2012 5990.00 25500.00 2012 1540.00 5170.00
2013 6620.00 26000.00 2013 1500.00 5490.00
2014 7150.00 26800.00 2014 1700.00 4870.00
2015 8000.00 25100.00 2015 1670.00 4950.00
2016 7230.00 27000.00 2016 1540.00 4800.00
php?idSector=1&idTitular=2309&idMenu=sub151&idCateg=639
eg=639
Precio anual futuro de Ag
2.1 Vida util de la mina (V.U.) 10 aos
2.2 Ao base: 2016
2.3 Precios proyectados:
2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Ag
CUADRO N01: VALORES HISTORICOS DE LA DEMANDA Y PRECIO
Variacion
Variacion Variacion
N Ao Demanda Precio porcentual
demanda precio demanda
10 ^3 / %
1 2007 6,880.00 13.42
2 2008 5,950.00 15.01 -930.000 1.590 -13.517
3 2009 5,360.00 14.68 -590.000 -0.330 -9.916
4 2010 7,220.00 20.19 1860.000 5.510 34.701
5 2011 7,910.00 35.17 690.000 14.980 9.557
6 2012 5,990.00 31.15 -1920.000 -4.020 -24.273
7 2013 6,620.00 23.79 630.000 -7.360 10.518
8 2014 7,150.00 19.08 530.000 -4.710 8.006
9 2015 8,000.00 15.68 850.000 -3.400 11.888
10 2016 7,230.00 17.14 -770.000 1.460 -9.625
Cuadro N02: Resumen de valores historicos para el analisis de regresion lineal
N Ao %D %
1 2007
2 2008 -13.517 11.848
3 2009 -9.916 -2.199
4 2010 34.701 37.534
5 2011 9.557 74.195
6 2012 -24.273 -11.430
7 2013 10.518 -23.628
8 2014 8.006 -19.798
9 2015 11.888 -17.820
10 2016 -9.625 9.311
Grafica N01: Analisis regrecion lineal con relacion a la demanda y el precio
Variacion porcentual de la demanda v.s precio

80.000
60.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
Variacion %P
20.000
f(x) = 0.52357006x + 5.4373587213
R = 0.085257606
0.000
-30.000 -20.000 -10.000 0.000 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000
-20.000
-40.000
Variacion %D
Ecuacion lineal obtenida (1)

y = 0.5236x +
5.4374 R = 0.0853
Y= 0.5236 X "+" 5.4374
Cuadro N03: Resumen de valores para el analisis de regresion lineal entre T y Variacion % D
N Ao %
1 2007
2 2008 2 -13.517
3 2009 3 -9.916
4 2010 4 34.701
5 2011 5 9.557
6 2012 6 -24.273
7 2013 7 10.518
8 2014 8 8.006
9 2015 9 11.888
10 2016 10 -9.625
Grafica N01: Analisis regrecion lineal con relacion al T Variacion % D
Variacion porcentual de la T v.s Variacion % D

40.000
30.000
20.000
D
40.000
30.000
20.000
Variacion % D 10.000
0.000 f(x) = 0.4758640716x - 0.9286863925

1 2 R = 0.0053469521
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-10.000
-20.000
-30.000
T

y = 0.4759x -
0.9287 R = 0.0053
Y= 0.4759 X "-" 0.9287
Ecuacion (1)
y = 0.5236x + 5.4374 R = 0.0853 % = 0.5236 %
Ecuacion (2)
y = 0.4759x - 0.9287 R = 0.0053 % = 0.476 T
Variacion Variacion
N T Ao Demanda Precio demanda precio
10 ^3 /
1 10 2016 7,230.00 17.14 -770.000 1.460
2 11 2017 7,541.34 18.458 311.338 1.318
3 12 2018 7,901.97 19.924 360.634 1.466
4 13 2019 8,317.46 18.292 415.486 -1.632
5 14 2020 8,794.37 19.836 476.915 1.544
6 15 2021 9,340.49 21.560 546.113 1.724
7 16 2022 9,964.96 19.633 624.477 -1.927
VariacionporcentualdelaTv.sVariacion%D
8 17 2023 10,678.61 17.829 713.651 -1.804
9 18 2024 11,494.19 16.147 815.579 -1.682
10 19 2025 12,426.76 14.583 932.570 -1.564
11 20 2026 13,494.13 16.031 1067.372 1.449
Precio anual futuro de Pb
2.2 Ao base: 2016
2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Pb
Variacion
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 / %
1 2007 1,580.00 117.03
2 2008 1,540.00 94.83 -40.000 -22.200 -2.532
3 2009 1,500.00 77.91 -40.000 -16.920 -2.597
4 2010 1,410.00 97.61 -90.000 19.700 -6.000
5 2011 1,400.00 108.97 -10.000 11.360 -0.709
6 2012 1,540.00 93.5 140.000 -15.470 10.000
7 2013 1,500.00 97.61 -40.000 4.110 -2.597
8 2014 1,700.00 95.07 200.000 -2.540 13.333
9 2015 1,670.00 80.9 -30.000 -14.170 -1.765
10 2016 1,540.00 84.89 -130.000 3.990 -7.784
N Ao %D %
1 2007
2 2008 -2.532 -18.969
3 2009 -2.597 -17.842
4 2010 -6.000 25.286
5 2011 -0.709 11.638
6 2012 10.000 -14.197
7 2013 -2.597 4.396
8 2014 13.333 -2.602
9 2015 -1.765 -14.905
10 2016 -7.784 4.932

30.000
20.000
10.000
Variacion %P
f(x) = - 0.6720677844x - 2.522430838

0.000
-10.000 R = 0.0959903283
-5.000 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000
-10.000
-20.000
-30.000
Variacion %D

y = -0.6721x
-2.5224 R = 0.096
Y= -0.6721 X "+" -2.5224
N Ao %
1 2007
2 2008 2 -2.532
3 2009 3 -2.597
4 2010 4 -6.000
5 2011 5 -0.709
6 2012 6 10.000
7 2013 7 -2.597
8 2014 8 13.333
9 2015 9 -1.765
10 2016 10 -7.784

15.000
10.000
15.000
10.000
Variacion % D
5.000
0.000 f(x) = 0.3044238633x - 1.8989292144

1 2 R = 0.0139762968
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-5.000
-10.000
T

y = 0.3044x -
1.8989 R = 0.014
Y= 0.3044 X "-" 0.18989
Ecuacion (1)
y = -0.6721x -2.5224 R = 0.096 % = -0.6721 %
Ecuacion (2)
y = 0.3044x - 1.8989 R = 0.014 % = 0.3044 T
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 /
1 10 2016 1,540.00 84.89 -130.000 3.990
2 11 2017 1,588.64 88.833 48.641 3.943
3 12 2018 1,643.65 84.525 55.013 -4.308
4 13 2019 1,705.58 80.253 61.922 -4.272
5 14 2020 1,775.02 84.473 69.446 4.220
6 15 2021 1,852.70 89.089 77.677 4.615
7 16 2022 1,939.41 84.039 86.716 -5.050
8 17 2023 2,036.09 88.974 96.678 4.935
9 18 2024 2,143.79 83.567 107.695 -5.407
10 19 2025 2,263.71 88.817 119.917 5.250
11 20 2026 2,397.22 94.578 133.516 5.761
Precio anual futuro de Zn

2.2 Ao base: 2016
2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Zn
Variacion
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 / %
1 2007 1050.00 147.07
2 2008 998.00 85.05 -52.000 -62.020 -4.952
3 2009 893.00 75.05 -105.000 -10.000 -10.521
4 2010 907.00 98.18 14.000 23.130 1.568
5 2011 939.00 99.5 32.000 1.320 3.528
6 2012 892.00 88.29 -47.000 -11.210 -5.005
7 2013 940.00 86.59 48.000 -1.700 5.381
8 2014 965.00 98.18 25.000 11.590 2.660
9 2015 931.00 97.47 -34.000 -0.710 -3.523
10 2016 780.00 94.83 -151.000 -2.640 -16.219
N Ao %D %
1 2007
2 2008 -4.952 -42.170
3 2009 -10.521 -11.758
4 2010 1.568 30.819
5 2011 3.528 1.344
6 2012 -5.005 -11.266
7 2013 5.381 -1.925
8 2014 2.660 13.385
9 2015 -3.523 -0.723
10 2016 -16.219 -2.709

40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
Variacion %P
f(x) = 1.0821843648x + 0.4786302167

R = 0.1522599829 0.000
-20.000 -15.000 -10.000 -5.000 0.000 5.000 10.000
-10.000
-20.000
-30.000
-40.000
-50.000
Variacion %D

y = 1.0822x +
0.4786 R = 0.1523
Y= 1.0822 X "+" 0.4786
N Ao %
1 2007
2 2008 2 -4.952
3 2009 3 -10.521
4 2010 4 1.568
5 2011 5 3.528
6 2012 6 -5.005
7 2013 7 5.381
8 2014 8 2.660
9 2015 9 -3.523
10 2016 10 -16.219

10.000
5.000
0.000
Variacion % D
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
f(x) = - 0.3339512193x - 1.0056903427
-5.000 R = 0.016514945
-10.000
-15.000
-20.000
T

y = -0.334x -
1.0057 R = 0.0165
Y= -0.334 X "-" 1.0057
Ecuacion (1)
y = 1.0822x + 0.4786 R = 0.1523 % = 1.0822 %
Ecuacion (2)
y = -0.334x - 1.0057 R = 0.0165 % = -0.3340 T
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 /
1 10 2016 780.00 94.83 -151.000 -2.640
2 11 2017 743.50 99.179 -36.502 4.349
3 12 2018 706.22 94.272 -37.277 -4.907
4 13 2019 668.45 89.267 -37.767 -5.005
5 14 2020 630.48 94.329 -37.980 5.062
6 15 2021 592.55 100.019 -37.928 5.690
7 16 2022 554.92 93.624 -37.625 -6.394
8 17 2023 517.83 87.301 -37.089 -6.324
9 18 2024 481.49 93.513 -36.340 6.212
10 19 2025 446.10 86.520 -35.398 -6.992
11 20 2026 411.81 79.738 -34.286 -6.782
Precio anual futuro de Au

2.2 Ao base: 2016
2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Au
Variacion
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 / %
1 2007 180.00 697.41
2 2008 176.00 872.72 -4.000 175.310 -2.222
3 2009 150.00 973.62 -26.000 100.900 -14.773
4 2010 180.00 1225.29 30.000 251.670 20.000
5 2011 168.00 1569.53 -12.000 344.240 -6.667
6 2012 147.00 1668.86 -21.000 99.330 -12.500
7 2013 160.00 1409.51 13.000 -259.350 8.844
8 2014 150.00 1266.06 -10.000 -143.450 -6.250
9 2015 164.00 1159.82 14.000 -106.240 9.333
10 2016 165.00 1248.16 1.000 88.340 0.610
N Ao %D %
1 2007
2 2008 -2.222 25.137
3 2009 -14.773 11.562
4 2010 20.000 25.849
5 2011 -6.667 28.095
6 2012 -12.500 6.329
7 2013 8.844 -15.541
8 2014 -6.250 -10.177
9 2015 9.333 -8.391
10 2016 0.610 7.617

40.000
30.000
20.000
Variacion %P
10.000
f(x) = - 0.0926800928x + 7.7936072148
R = 0.0040385302
0.000
-20.000 -15.000 -10.000 -5.000 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000
-10.000
-20.000
Variacion %D

y = -0.0927x +
7.7936 R = 0.004
Y= -0.0927 X "+" 7.7936
N Ao %
1 2007
2 2008 2 -2.222
3 2009 3 -14.773
4 2010 4 20.000
5 2011 5 -6.667
6 2012 6 -12.500
7 2013 7 8.844
8 2014 8 -6.250
9 2015 9 9.333
10 2016 10 0.610

25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
Variacion % D
5.000
0.000 f(x) = 0.7776049863x - 5.0684065085
1 2 R = 0.0353208669
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-5.000
-10.000
-15.000
-20.000
T

y = 0.7776x -
5.0684 R = 0.0353
Y= 0.7776 X "-" 5.0684
Ecuacion (1)
y = -0.0927x + 7.7936 R = 0.004 % = -0.0927 %
Ecuacion (2)
y = 0.7776x - 5.0684 R = 0.0353 % = 0.7776 T
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 /
1 10 2016 165.00 1248.16 1.000 88.340
2 11 2017 170.75 1341.404 5.751 93.244
3 12 2018 178.03 1440.647 7.279 99.243
4 13 2019 187.00 1546.194 8.973 105.547
5 14 2020 197.88 1658.359 10.880 112.165
6 15 2021 210.93 1777.466 13.052 119.106
7 16 2022 226.49 1903.845 15.553 126.380
8 17 2023 244.95 1769.852 18.460 -133.993
9 18 2024 266.82 1646.565 21.870 -123.287
10 19 2025 292.71 1533.054 25.897 -113.512
11 20 2026 323.40 1637.635 30.687 104.581
Variacion
porcentual
precio
%
11.848
-2.199
37.534
74.195
-11.430
-23.628
-19.798
-17.820
9.311
00 40.000
ariacion % D
5.4374
-0.9287 .. valor basoluto
Variacion Variacion Variacion % Precios

porcentual porcentual signo precio anterior
demanda precio corregido (determinar
% % % el signo)
-9.625 9.311
4.306 7.692 1.000 7.692 13.42
4.782 7.941 1.000 7.941 15.01
5.258 8.190 -1.000 -8.190 14.68
5.734 8.440 1.000 8.440 20.19
6.210 8.689 1.000 8.689 35.17
6.686 8.938 -1.000 -8.938 31.15
7.162 9.187 -1.000 -9.187 23.79
7.638 9.436 -1.000 -9.436 19.08
8.113 9.686 -1.000 -9.686 15.68
8.589 9.935 1.000 9.935 17.14
Variacion
porcentual
precio
%
-18.969
-17.842
25.286
11.638
-14.197
4.396
-2.602
-14.905
4.932
15.000
ariacion % D
-2.5224

% % % el signo)
-7.784 4.932
3.159 4.645 1.000 4.645 117.03
3.463 4.850 -1.000 -4.850 94.83
3.767 5.054 -1.000 -5.054 77.91
4.072 5.259 1.000 5.259 97.61
4.376 5.464 1.000 5.464 108.97
4.681 5.668 -1.000 -5.668 93.5
4.985 5.873 1.000 5.873 97.61
5.289 6.077 -1.000 -6.077 95.07
5.594 6.282 1.000 6.282 80.9
5.898 6.487 1.000 6.487 84.89
Variacion
porcentual
precio
%
-42.170
-11.758
30.819
1.344
-11.266
-1.925
13.385
-0.723
-2.709
10.000
ariacion % D
0.4786

% % % el signo)
-16.219 -2.709
-4.680 4.586 1.000 4.586 147.07
-5.014 4.947 -1.000 -4.947 85.05
-5.348 5.309 -1.000 -5.309 75.05
-5.682 5.670 1.000 5.670 98.18
-6.016 6.032 1.000 6.032 99.5
-6.350 6.393 -1.000 -6.393 88.29
-6.684 6.755 -1.000 -6.755 86.59
-7.018 7.116 1.000 7.116 98.18
-7.352 7.477 -1.000 -7.477 97.47
-7.686 7.839 -1.000 -7.839 94.83
Variacion
porcentual
precio
%
25.137
11.562
25.849
28.095
6.329
-15.541
-10.177
-8.391
7.617
0.000 25.000
ariacion % D
7.7936

% % % el signo)
0.610 7.617
3.485 7.471 1.000 7.471 697.41
4.263 7.398 1.000 7.398 872.72
5.040 7.326 1.000 7.326 973.62
5.818 7.254 1.000 7.254 1225.29
6.596 7.182 1.000 7.182 1569.53
7.373 7.110 1.000 7.110 1668.86
8.151 7.038 -1.000 -7.038 1409.51
8.928 6.966 -1.000 -6.966 1266.06
9.706 6.894 -1.000 -6.894 1159.82
10.484 6.822 1.000 6.822 1248.16
Precio anual futuro de Ag
2.2 Ao base: 2016

2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Ag
CUADRO N01: VALORES HISTORICOS DE LA OFERTA Y PRECIO
Variacion
Variacion Variacion
N Ao OFERTA Precio porcentual
Oferta precio Oferta
O 10 ^3 / %
1 2007 20,800.00 13.42
2 2008 21,300.00 15.01 500.000 1.590 2.404
3 2009 21,800.00 14.68 500.000 -0.330 2.347
4 2010 23,100.00 20.19 1300.000 5.510 5.963
5 2011 23,300.00 35.17 200.000 14.980 0.866
6 2012 25,500.00 31.15 2200.000 -4.020 9.442
7 2013 26,000.00 23.79 500.000 -7.360 1.961
8 2014 26,800.00 19.08 800.000 -4.710 3.077
9 2015 25,100.00 15.68 -1700.000 -3.400 -6.343
10 2016 27,000.00 17.14 1900.000 1.460 7.570
N Ao %O %
1 2007
2 2008 2.404 11.848
3 2009 2.347 -2.199
4 2010 5.963 37.534
5 2011 0.866 74.195
6 2012 9.442 -11.430
7 2013 1.961 -23.628
8 2014 3.077 -19.798
9 2015 -6.343 -17.820
10 2016 7.570 9.311

80.000
60.000
40.000
Variacion %P
20.000
f(x) = 0.6298365652x + 4.5364508388

R = 0.0080053284 0.000
-8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 0.000 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000
-20.000
-40.000
Variacion %O

y = 0.6298x +
4.5365 R = 0.008
Y= 0.5236 X "+" 5.4374
N Ao %
1 2007
2 2008 2 2.404
3 2009 3 2.347
4 2010 4 5.963
5 2011 5 0.866
6 2012 6 9.442
7 2013 7 1.961
8 2014 8 3.077
9 2015 9 -6.343
10 2016 10 7.570

40.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
Variacion % D
10.000
0.000 f(x) = 0.4758640716x - 0.9286863925

1 2 R = 0.0053469521
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-10.000
-20.000
-30.000
T

y = 0.4759x -
0.9287 R = 0.0053
Y= 0.4759 X "-" 0.9287
Ecuacion (1)
y = 0.6298x + 4.5365 R = 0.008 % = 0.5236 %
Ecuacion (2)
y = 0.4759x - 0.9287 R = 0.0053 % = 0.476 T
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 /
1 10 2016 27,000.00 17.14 1900.000 1.460
2 11 2017 27,000.00 17.140 0.000 0.000
3 12 2018 27,000.00 17.140 0.000 0.000
4 13 2019 27,000.00 17.140 0.000 0.000
5 14 2020 27,000.00 17.140 0.000 0.000
6 15 2021 27,000.00 17.140 0.000 0.000
7 16 2022 27,000.00 17.140 0.000 0.000
8 17 2023 27,000.00 17.140 0.000 0.000
9 18 2024 27,000.00 17.140 0.000 0.000
10
11
19
20
2025
2026
27,000.00
27,000.00
17.140
17.140
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Precio anual futuro de Pb

2.2 Ao base: 2016
2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Pb
Variacion
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 / %
1 2007 1,580.00 117.03
2 2008 1,540.00 94.83 -40.000 -22.200 -2.532
3 2009 1,500.00 77.91 -40.000 -16.920 -2.597
4 2010 1,410.00 97.61 -90.000 19.700 -6.000
5 2011 1,400.00 108.97 -10.000 11.360 -0.709
6 2012 1,540.00 93.5 140.000 -15.470 10.000
7 2013 1,500.00 97.61 -40.000 4.110 -2.597
8 2014 1,700.00 95.07 200.000 -2.540 13.333
9 2015 1,670.00 80.9 -30.000 -14.170 -1.765
10 2016 1,540.00 84.89 -130.000 3.990 -7.784
N Ao %D %
1 2007
2 2008 -2.532 -18.969
3 2009 -2.597 -17.842
4 2010 -6.000 25.286
5 2011 -0.709 11.638
6 2012 10.000 -14.197
7 2013 -2.597 4.396
8 2014 13.333 -2.602
9 2015 -1.765 -14.905
10 2016 -7.784 4.932

30.000
20.000
10.000
Variacion %P
f(x) = - 0.6720677844x - 2.522430838

0.000
-10.000 R = 0.0959903283
-5.000 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000
-10.000
-20.000
-30.000
Variacion %D

y = -0.6721x
-2.5224 R = 0.096
Y= -0.6721 X "+" -2.5224
N Ao %
1 2007
2 2008 2 -2.532
3 2009 3 -2.597
4 2010 4 -6.000
5 2011 5 -0.709
6 2012 6 10.000
7 2013 7 -2.597
8 2014 8 13.333
9 2015 9 -1.765
10 2016 10 -7.784

15.000
10.000
Variacion % D
5.000
0.000 f(x) = 0.3044238633x - 1.8989292144

1 2 R = 0.0139762968
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-5.000
-10.000
T

y = 0.3044x -
1.8989 R = 0.014
Y= 0.3044 X "-" 0.18989
Ecuacion (1)
y = -0.6721x -2.5224 R = 0.096 % = -0.6721 %
Ecuacion (2)
y = 0.3044x - 1.8989 R = 0.014 % = 0.3044 T
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 /
1 10 2016 1,540.00 84.89 -130.000 3.990
2 11 2017 1,540.00 84.890 0.000 0.000
3 12 2018 1,540.00 84.890 0.000 0.000
4 13 2019 1,540.00 84.890 0.000 0.000
5 14 2020 1,540.00 84.890 0.000 0.000
6 15 2021 1,540.00 84.890 0.000 0.000
7 16 2022 1,540.00 84.890 0.000 0.000
8 17 2023 1,540.00 84.890 0.000 0.000
9 18 2024 1,540.00 84.890 0.000 0.000
10 19 2025 1,540.00 84.890 0.000 0.000
11 20 2026 1,540.00 84.890 0.000 0.000
Precio anual futuro de Zn

2.2 Ao base: 2016
2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Zn
Variacion
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 / %
1 2007 1050.00 147.07
2 2008 998.00 85.05 -52.000 -62.020 -4.952
3 2009 893.00 75.05 -105.000 -10.000 -10.521
4 2010 907.00 98.18 14.000 23.130 1.568
5 2011 939.00 99.5 32.000 1.320 3.528
6 2012 892.00 88.29 -47.000 -11.210 -5.005
7 2013 940.00 86.59 48.000 -1.700 5.381
8 2014 965.00 98.18 25.000 11.590 2.660
9 2015 931.00 97.47 -34.000 -0.710 -3.523
10 2016 780.00 94.83 -151.000 -2.640 -16.219
N Ao %D %
1 2007
2 2008 -4.952 -42.170
3 2009 -10.521 -11.758
4 2010 1.568 30.819
5 2011 3.528 1.344
6 2012 -5.005 -11.266
7 2013 5.381 -1.925
8 2014 2.660 13.385
9 2015 -3.523 -0.723
10 2016 -16.219 -2.709

40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
Variacion %P
f(x) = 1.0821843648x + 0.4786302167

R = 0.1522599829 0.000
-20.000 -15.000 -10.000 -5.000 0.000 5.000 10.000
-10.000
-20.000
-30.000
-40.000
-50.000
Variacion %D

y = 1.0822x +
0.4786 R = 0.1523
Y= 1.0822 X "+" 0.4786
N Ao %
1 2007
2 2008 2 -4.952
3 2009 3 -10.521
4 2010 4 1.568
5 2011 5 3.528
6 2012 6 -5.005
7 2013 7 5.381
8 2014 8 2.660
9 2015 9 -3.523
10 2016 10 -16.219

10.000
5.000
0.000
Variacion % D
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
f(x) = - 0.3339512193x - 1.0056903427
-5.000 R = 0.016514945
-10.000
-15.000
-20.000
T

y = -0.334x -
1.0057 R = 0.0165
Y= -0.334 X "-" 1.0057
Ecuacion (1)
y = 1.0822x + 0.4786 R = 0.1523 % = 1.0822 %
Ecuacion (2)
y = -0.334x - 1.0057 R = 0.0165 % = -0.3340 T
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 /
1 10 2016 780.00 94.83 -151.000 -2.640
2 11 2017 780.00 94.830 0.000 0.000
3 12 2018 780.00 94.830 0.000 0.000
4 13 2019 780.00 94.830 0.000 0.000
5 14 2020 780.00 94.830 0.000 0.000
6 15 2021 780.00 94.830 0.000 0.000
7 16 2022 780.00 94.830 0.000 0.000
8 17 2023 780.00 94.830 0.000 0.000
9 18 2024 780.00 94.830 0.000 0.000
10 19 2025 780.00 94.830 0.000 0.000
11 20 2026 780.00 94.830 0.000 0.000
Precio anual futuro de Au

2.2 Ao base: 2016
2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Au
Variacion
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 / %
1 2007 180.00 697.41
2 2008 176.00 872.72 -4.000 175.310 -2.222
3 2009 150.00 973.62 -26.000 100.900 -14.773
4 2010 180.00 1225.29 30.000 251.670 20.000
5 2011 168.00 1569.53 -12.000 344.240 -6.667
6 2012 147.00 1668.86 -21.000 99.330 -12.500
7 2013 160.00 1409.51 13.000 -259.350 8.844
8 2014 150.00 1266.06 -10.000 -143.450 -6.250
9 2015 164.00 1159.82 14.000 -106.240 9.333
10 2016 165.00 1248.16 1.000 88.340 0.610
N Ao %D %
1 2007
2 2008 -2.222 25.137
3 2009 -14.773 11.562
4 2010 20.000 25.849
5 2011 -6.667 28.095
6 2012 -12.500 6.329
7 2013 8.844 -15.541
8 2014 -6.250 -10.177
9 2015 9.333 -8.391
10 2016 0.610 7.617

40.000
30.000
20.000
Variacion %P
10.000
f(x) = - 0.0926800928x + 7.7936072148
R = 0.0040385302
0.000
-20.000 -15.000 -10.000 -5.000 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000
-10.000
-20.000
Variacion %D

y = -0.0927x +
7.7936 R = 0.004
Y= -0.0927 X "+" 7.7936
N Ao %
1 2007
2 2008 2 -2.222
3 2009 3 -14.773
4 2010 4 20.000
5 2011 5 -6.667
6 2012 6 -12.500
7 2013 7 8.844
8 2014 8 -6.250
9 2015 9 9.333
10 2016 10 0.610

25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
Variacion % D
5.000
0.000 f(x) = 0.7776049863x - 5.0684065085
1 2 R = 0.0353208669
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-5.000
-10.000
-15.000
-20.000
T

y = 0.7776x -
5.0684 R = 0.0353
Y= 0.7776 X "-" 5.0684
Ecuacion (1)
y = -0.0927x + 7.7936 R = 0.004 % = -0.0927 %
Ecuacion (2)
y = 0.7776x - 5.0684 R = 0.0353 % = 0.7776 T
Variacion Variacion
10 ^3 /
1 10 2016 165.00 1248.16 1.000 88.340
2 11 2017 165.00 1248.160 0.000 0.000
3 12 2018 165.00 1248.160 0.000 0.000
4 13 2019 165.00 1248.160 0.000 0.000
5 14 2020 165.00 1248.160 0.000 0.000
6 15 2021 165.00 1248.160 0.000 0.000
7 16 2022 165.00 1248.160 0.000 0.000
8 17 2023 165.00 1248.160 0.000 0.000
9 18 2024 165.00 1248.160 0.000 0.000
10 19 2025 165.00 1248.160 0.000 0.000
11 20 2026 165.00 1248.160 0.000 0.000
Variacion
porcentual
precio
%
11.848
-2.199
37.534
74.195
-11.430
-23.628
-19.798
-17.820
9.311
10.000 12.000
ariacion % D
5.4374

% % % el signo)
7.570 9.311
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 13.42
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 15.01
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 14.68
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 20.19
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 35.17
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 31.15
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 23.79
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 19.08
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 15.68
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 17.14
Variacion
porcentual
precio
%
-18.969
-17.842
25.286
11.638
-14.197
4.396
-2.602
-14.905
4.932
15.000
ariacion % D
-2.5224

% % % el signo)
-7.784 4.932
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 117.03
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 94.83
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 77.91
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 97.61
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 108.97
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 93.5
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 97.61
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 95.07
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 80.9
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 84.89
Variacion
porcentual
precio
%
-42.170
-11.758
30.819
1.344
-11.266
-1.925
13.385
-0.723
-2.709
10.000
ariacion % D
0.4786

% % % el signo)
-16.219 -2.709
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 147.07
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 85.05
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 75.05
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 98.18
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 99.5
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 88.29
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 86.59
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 98.18
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 97.47
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 94.83
Variacion
porcentual
precio
%
25.137
11.562
25.849
28.095
6.329
-15.541
-10.177
-8.391
7.617
0.000 25.000
ariacion % D
7.7936

% % % el signo)
0.610 7.617
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 697.41
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 872.72
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 973.62
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1225.29
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1569.53
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1668.86
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 1409.51
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 1266.06
0.000 0.000 -1.000 0.000 1159.82
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1248.16

Analisis de Mercado - 2 - Formulacion de Proyectos Mineros

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Para diferentes metales de kitco.com:

2.2 Ao base: 2016

2.3 Precios proyectados:

2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Ag

CUADRO N01: VALORES HISTORICOS DE LA DEMANDA Y PRECIO

Cuadro N02: Resumen de valores historicos para el analisis de regresion lineal

Grafica N01: Analisis regrecion lineal con relacion a la demanda y el precio

Variacion porcentual de la demanda v.s precio

Ecuacion lineal obtenida (1)

Y= 0.5236 X "+" 5.4374

Grafica N01: Analisis regrecion lineal con relacion al T Variacion % D

Variacion porcentual de la T v.s Variacion % D

0.000 f(x) = 0.4758640716x - 0.9286863925

Ecuacion lineal obtenida (2)

Y= 0.4759 X "-" 0.9287

y = 0.5236x + 5.4374 R = 0.0853 % = 0.5236 %

y = 0.4759x - 0.9287 R = 0.0053 % = 0.476 T

2.2 Ao base: 2016

2.3 Precios proyectados:

2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Pb

CUADRO N01: VALORES HISTORICOS DE LA DEMANDA Y PRECIO

Cuadro N02: Resumen de valores historicos para el analisis de regresion lineal

Grafica N01: Analisis regrecion lineal con relacion a la demanda y el precio

f(x) = - 0.6720677844x - 2.522430838

Ecuacion lineal obtenida (1)

Y= -0.6721 X "+" -2.5224

Grafica N01: Analisis regrecion lineal con relacion al T Variacion % D

Variacion porcentual de la T v.s Variacion % D

0.000 f(x) = 0.3044238633x - 1.8989292144

Ecuacion lineal obtenida (2)

Y= 0.3044 X "-" 0.18989

y = -0.6721x -2.5224 R = 0.096 % = -0.6721 %

y = 0.3044x - 1.8989 R = 0.014 % = 0.3044 T

Precio anual futuro de Zn

2.2 Ao base: 2016

2.3 Precios proyectados:

2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Zn

CUADRO N01: VALORES HISTORICOS DE LA DEMANDA Y PRECIO

Cuadro N02: Resumen de valores historicos para el analisis de regresion lineal

Variacion porcentual de la demanda v.s precio

f(x) = 1.0821843648x + 0.4786302167

Ecuacion lineal obtenida (1)

Y= 1.0822 X "+" 0.4786

Grafica N01: Analisis regrecion lineal con relacion al T Variacion % D

Ecuacion lineal obtenida (2)

Y= -0.334 X "-" 1.0057

y = 1.0822x + 0.4786 R = 0.1523 % = 1.0822 %

y = -0.334x - 1.0057 R = 0.0165 % = -0.3340 T

Precio anual futuro de Au

2.2 Ao base: 2016

2.3 Precios proyectados:

2.3.1 Precio futuro del elemento Au

CUADRO N01: VALORES HISTORICOS DE LA DEMANDA Y PRECIO

Cuadro N02: Resumen de valores historicos para el analisis de regresion lineal

Grafica N01: Analisis regrecion lineal con relacion a la demanda y el precio

Variacion porcentual de la demanda v.s precio

Ecuacion lineal obtenida (1)

Y= -0.0927 X "+" 7.7936

Variacion porcentual de la T v.s Variacion % D

Ecuacion lineal obtenida (2)

Y= 0.7776 X "-" 5.0684

y = -0.0927x + 7.7936 R = 0.004 % = -0.0927 %