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Rosa T. Perez
ABSTRACT
This paper describes the studies performed on the vulnerability and adaptation of the Philippine
coastal resources sector to climate change. The analysis is done by looking at the impacts on the
coastal areas of the present climate variability and expected impacts of future climate changes,
especially on the valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves. Present and future response
measures in the context of sustainable development are also presented. The emphasis is centered on
community participation in the implementation of adaptation options. It is seen that information,
education and communication campaign will play a vital role in bridging the gap between policy
makers and the people.
1. Introduction
The Philippines is an archipelago with a total discontinuous coastline of 32,400 kilometers, the
longest in the world. About 70% of the countrys 1,500 municipalities share the coast, deriving
numerous benefits and opportunities offered by the coastal zone and near-shore areas. The natural
systems support major economic activities such as coastal lowland farming, fishing and tourism, and
provision of human settlements with essential life support and development opportunities. Coastal
fishing accounts for 40 to 60% of the total fish catch and represents about 4% of the GNP. The
countrys coastal and marine resources are varied and diverse, providing food and employment to over
one million Filipinos, half of whom are engaged in small-scale fishing. Fish and other marine products
supply up to 70% of the total animal protein intake of the populace.
Natural perturbations in the form of cyclones, tsunamis and coastal storms are part of the natural
processes that periodically affect most of the coastal regions, often times causing flooding and
inundation in low-lying areas. In addition to the problems of unsustainable coastal developments,
coastal zones can also be significantly affected by the impacts of human-induced climate change. One
of the most certain outcomes of climate change is accelerated rise in global mean sea level. The
second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in
December 1995 describes the global mean sea level rise from 15 cm to 110 cm, with a most probable
value of around 50 cm, by 2100. Wetlands are likely to be threatened, coastal erosion will increase and
coastal resources, populations and economies will be adversely affected. Other aspects of climate
change may bring serious effects; these include changes in the intensity, frequency and patterns of
extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, precipitation, evaporation and freshwater
availability.
At present, approximately 50 million people live in the Philippine coastal areas and are at risk from
the impacts of natural hazards and extreme climatic events, sea level changes and degradation of
coastal and marine ecosystems. Adding to these existing stresses are the impacts that would be caused
by sea level rise as projected. Accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) is expected to affect the physical and
biological properties of the coast as well as the lifestyles and traditions of the people.
Results from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC, 1995] indicate that the need
to implement strategies to cope with sea level rise is more urgent than thought. Natural systems, which
help protect marine and coastal resources, are already degraded by anthropogenic activities.
Mangrove, which buffer the land from storm surges and the sea from land based sources of pollution,
are being depleted. Uncontrolled or ill-conceived development schemes, over exploitation of living
marine resources and impacts related to urbanization, tourism and agriculture all contribute to decrease
resilience of coastal and marine ecosystems.
2.1. Vulnerability to climate variability and change and sea level rise
Being in the Pacific Rim, the Philippines is a hot spot for natural hazard occurrences. It is highly
prone to storm surges (Figure 1) and riverine flooding, caused by storms and other environmental
degradation. This is due to the fact that an average of 20 tropical cyclones pass yearly through the
Philippine area and about nine of them crossed land (CAB, 1995). Flooding usually occurs in the low-
lying coastal areas, including most places in the
Metropolitan Manila during heavy rains. The
eastern side of the country is subject to heavy rains
during the Northeast Monsoon season (November
to February), while the western side during the
Southwest Monsoon season (from May to
September). The Southwest Monsoon season
coincides with the typhoon season as well.
Tropical cyclones bring about heavy damage that
seriously affect the economy of the nation. Year to
year climate variability affect greatly the amount of
rainfall in the country, with El Nio causing
drought (below average rainfall) and floods for La
Nia (above average rainfall). With climate change,
The Philippine Country studies used (1) Manila Bay coastal zone (see Figure 3) as pilot area. Local
action planning for climate change were performed in 7 provinces, namely (2) Pangasinan, (3)
Camarines Sur, (4) Eastern Samar, (5) Surigao del Norte, (6) Bohol, (7) Misamis Oriental, and (8)
Palawan. Various approaches were used to analyze the occurrence and the degree of impacts of
climate change and sea level rise, which was recognized to vary with regions and locations depending
on natural conditions and vulnerability. Principally, the IPCC-CZMS (IPCC, 1992) prescribed
common methodology of vulnerability assessment was used during the country study. In support of
the common methodology, an aerial video-assisted vulnerability analysis (AVVA) as developed by
Leatherman, et al (1994), may also be done to get an approximate status of the coastal environment
under study. The AVVA is a low-level reconnaissance on the implication of land use in response to
sea level rise. This method consists of unrectified oblique aerial video recording of the coastal area
taken from a height of 50 to 500 meters.
In applying the IPCC common methodology for assessing vulnerability of the coastal resources to
ASLR, the number one constraint is the availability of suitable topographic maps to delineate the areas
to be affected by the scenarios1. Traditional photogrammetric approaches are costly, both in terms of
funds available and time allocated for V&A activities.
Satellite imageries can also be prohibitively expensive.
In the case of Manila Bay area2, the highest resolution
topographic maps and bathymetric charts available are
in the scale 1:10,000 with 4-km contour lines. For
other places, it could be as low as 1:50,000 or
1:250,000. The technique developed by Leatherman
(1992) known as the Aerial Video-assisted
Vulnerability Assessment (AVVA) helped in assessing
the implications of the present land use in response to
sea level rise. In the assessment of the extent of land
to be submerged under the specified ASLR scenarios,
ground truth measurements have to be established in
order to update the information since the last
topographic maps were made. Supplementary
measurements were established in areas where low
elevations extend significantly inland, such as
riverbanks. Socio-economic information is available
from different national agencies but these are only in
the next ten years time frame. Projections of
population or GDP growth, for example, should be made to fit the same time projections with ASLR
scenarios, which is at 2100.
In the specification of the ASLR scenarios, IPCC (1995) has prescribed the values based on the
IS92 assumptions: 0.3 m as the low estimate and 1.0 m as the high estimate by the year 2100. In the
vulnerability assessment of Manila Bay, Perez et al (1996) added a worst case scenario3 of 2.0 m.
However, computing for the monetary value of projected losses is most difficult. Land value first
of all depends on its present and future usage, location and ownership. There is also a great difficulty
in putting direct monetary values to coastal ecosystems, say mangrove forest or sea grasses.
1
(0.3 m and 1.0 m, corresponding to the IPCC low and high ASLR scenarios)
2
The pilot area used in the Philippine Country Study.
3
The worst case scenario could be more than 2 m as some scientists foresee that sea level could rise by 5-6 meters if the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses.
Likewise, the potential impacts of climate change in the coastal zone could include the danger of
worsening of some current coastal problems as well as the emergence of new ones. Hence, it is most
wise to begin consideration of the potential impacts of climate change by focusing on the current
impacts observed within the context of the present day climate variability. The logic of this view is, if
one can document the effects of the present day climate and respond to current vulnerability, one will
be in a better position to deal with future changes. Also, any attempts to reduce the vulnerability to
current climate can bring immediate or near-term benefits, which are unlikely to be regretted. We
could also look at current vulnerability problems, which one would expect would be exacerbated by
climate change.
4. Response Measures
5. Conclusion
The full impacts of climate change may not fit within the political or economic planning time
frames of the country. Nevertheless, adaptation measures must be put in place in anticipation of the
potential effects. Considering that many coastal resources in the Philippines are in highly stressed
conditions, vulnerability is high which could further lead to unsustainability.
The Philippine coastal zones are already experiencing multiple problems. Among these are
declining ecosystem (coral reefs, sea grasses, mangroves), low yield fish stocks, fast growing
populations, human settlements (informal settlers) and conflict in use of the coastal zones space and
resources, among others. An integrated coastal zone management is proposed to address the short- and
long-term problems. The short-term problems are usually demand driven while climate changes and
impacts fall in the long-term time realm.
The issues and concerns on both the short and long term needs should be brought to the attention of
the community who are the direct targets of the impacts, and of the policy makers who will direct the
strategies to adapt to these impacts. Hence, information, education and communication are essential
along with the technical and scientific efforts to achieve a well-balanced adaptation plan.
There is an urgent need to review and integrate all measures, policies and management plans to
avoid costly duplication and increase the coordination between and among all the coastal stakeholders.
The involvement of the communities or the so-called grass-roots will serve as the strongest cohesive
factors that will ensure the success of any sustainable use programs of the government. The LGUs
should be equipped with the proper technical know-how, together with the power to execute all rules
and regulations pertaining to the utilization, development and rehabilitation of resources.
References
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IPCC, 1995: Climate Change: The IPCC Second Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press,
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