Pemodelan Sistem: Model

Konseptual
Disampaikan Oleh

M. Imron Mustajib, S.T., M.T .

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 Referensi
1. Daellenbach, H. G., (1994), “Systems and Decision Making”, John
Wiley & Sons, Chichester-England.

2. Murthy, D.N.P., Page, M.W., and Rodin,E.Y., Mathematical

Modelling, Pergamon Press, 1990

3. Simatupang, T.M., (1995), Pemodelan Sistem, Nindita: Klaten

4. Tunas, B. (2007), “Memahami dan Memecahkan Masalah dengan

Pendekatan Sistem”, PT Nimas Multima.

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 OUTLINE
• A Situation Summary
• Approaches for Describing A Relevant
System
• System Models
• Influence Diagrams
• Quantitative Modelling

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 Systems Modeling
• We will apply the systems concepts and thinking
discussed before to a real-life problematic
situation
• Define a relevant system for it.
• Several cases –problematic situations discussed
• System modelling: The process of
conceptualizing a system of interest.
• This involves two steps: Describing a problem
situation and a relevant system
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 A Situation Summary
• The first step when approaching a problem situation
is to familiarize yourself with:
– the situation
– Its processes and structures
– The people involved
– Their aims and desires
– Relationship between them
– The hierarchy or power structure
– The resources available
– The data sources and information

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 A Problem Situation
• To get a “ feel” for anything you
discovered and seems relevant for
describing the problem situation.
• Rich Picture Diagram is a useful tool for
describing a problem situation

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 Rich Picture Diagram
• A cartoon-like summary of everything the
observer knows about the situation studied
• Diagram or concept -is not a system
description
• Only one approach of making a situation
summary

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Rich Picture: A Piece of Sky is Missing

• Problematic Situation
• The person looking at the situation
• The structural elements
• The process elements
• The relationships between structure and
process

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 The Socio-Technical Model
[Leavitt (1964)].

Structure

Task Technology
(tools)

People
(actors)

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 Rich Picture Diagram
• Guidelines:
• Elements of structure (All components of the situation
are relatively stable -e.g., all physical aspects)
• Elements of process (All aspects that undergo change
-e.g., activities, flow and processing of materials)
• Relationship between structure and process and
between process (how does the structure affect
condition of process; one process affects other
processes)

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 Rich Picture Diagram
• For human activity systems:
A rich picture should be included hard facts and soft
facts.
• The rich picture is never finished
• Common mistake:
Each item pictured needs to be connected one or more
other items (Note that rich picture is not a system
description)
• The uses of rich picture:
An ideal vehicle for communicating with other people
about complex and problematic situation
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 Approaches for describing
a relevant system
• A system description consists in specifying
the transformation process(es) of the system
the boundary of the system
the components and subsystems and the structure
the inputs and the outputs (desired & undesired outputs)
• Two Approaches for describing a relevant system:
– Structural Approach
– Process Approach

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 Structural Approach
• A typical structure usually found for
situation considered, e.g., a waiting line
structure.
• The situation is well understood
• Using a known basic structure allows fast
progress toward a complete system
description

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 Process Approach
• No assumption about the possible system
structure
• The observed processes and relationships are
used to discover a good structure
• A good starting point is to determine from whose
standpoint to view the system and then define
the prime transformation process.
• Rules help in identifying the components, inputs
and outputs of the system.

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 Rules
• Any aspect that affects the systems, but in turn is not
significantly affected by it, is an input from the
environment system. This covers all external controls.
• Any aspect that is directly or indirectly affected or
controlled by the system, but turn does not affected any
other aspect of the system, is a system output.

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• Any entity that is either part of the system’s structure or
its transformation process(es) is a component of the
system, unless it is an output of the system. Similarly, if
the system or any of its components affects an entity or
exercises control over it, then that entity is a component,
unless it is a system output.
• Any aspect that does not affect the system, or is not
affected by it, or not part of its structure or transformation
process is irrelevant, and can be ignored

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 System Models
• The activity of building a model is referred
to as systems modeling.
• A model may be iconic, symbolic, or
analogous
• Symbolic Models:
– Representation of the relationships between
various entities or concept by means of
symbols.

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 Mathematical Models
• Relationships between various entities are
expressed in the form of mathematical
expressions:
– Function,
– Equation, and
– Inequalities
• Example: Case Study C [Murthy, et.al.
(1990)] –Optimal Production

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 Case 1: The Ozone Hole
• A system for how the ozone layer in the stratosphere is
gradually destroyed through the continued release of
CFSs into the atmosphere, allowing a greater fraction of
the sun’s uv-rays to reach the earth’s surface.
• Input:
• Process:
• Component
• Structure:
• Output:

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 Case 2: Lubricating Oil Division
(LOD)
• A situation summary
• Identifying the problem
• A system relevant
• Influence diagram

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 The Narrow System:[LOD]
• A system for the replenishment and stock
control of packaged finished goods which
keeps the total operating costs for the
LOD as low as possible while maintaining
the current level of customer service

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 Relevant System:[LOD]
• To use the typical inventory/production
control structure for defining the system
• But the problem situation includes aspects
not normally found in such a structure –
e.g. rules to meet big and small customer
orders
• Use the Process Approach

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 Relevant System:[LOD]
• Big customer order is met by scheduling a special
production run (is it outside the narrow system ?)
• This aspect affects the inventory/production control
system of LOD
• Cutoff point is considered as one of the two decision
variables.
• What type of control –open loop control (the customer
order classification –input to the system)

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 Identifying the system aspects
• See Table 5-1.
• The easiest way is to start out by listing
– The control inputs
– The performance outputs
– Any other system outputs,
– Then followed by structure, process, component of
the system
• Two potential inputs –breakdown in the
operation of the refinery and production
capacities, are ignored (why?)

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 Influence Diagrams (ID)
• Insightful for bringing out the transformation process of the
system
– in term of the structural and causal relationships between
systems components.
• Depicts the influence relationship
– Between the inputs into a system and its component (the
system variables)
– Between the component of the system, and
– Between the component and the outputs of the system,
including performance measures
(these influence relationship can usually be measured in
quantitative terms)

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 Approach To Draw An ID
• Control and other inputs ⇒ State variables ⇒ System
outputs (in a logical sequence)
• For example, the customer order pattern (an input) &
cutoff point (a decision) determine order patterns (met
from stock or special production run)
• Each customer order pattern determines the annual
volume by spec-prod-run (AVPR) or annual volume met
from stock (AVS).

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 Approach To Draw An ID
• AVPR →the annual number of setups
• Together with the cost of production setup
→the annual setup cost for special
production run, and so forth.

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 Figure 5-1: OR/MS methodology

F 1 FORWARD LINKAGES
Summarizing
O
problem
R
situation
M
U Identifying 2
L problem for
A analysis
T 3
Decribing
I
relevant PROJECT PROPOSAL
O
system
N
Building a 4
mathematical
1
model
M Finding 5
O preferred
D solution
E 6
L Validation &
I performance
N testing
G 7
Analyzing
sensitivity PROJECT REPORT
of solution
Planning 8
I Implementatio
M n
P
Establishing 9
L
E control over
M solution
E 10
N Implementing DOCUMENTATION &
T solution USER'S MANUAL
A
11
T Following up
O solution use SOLUTION AUDIT
N

BACKWARD LINKAGES

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