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Submitted By:
1
Gaurav Chaturvedi (Enroll ID: 6624736)
Exchange Student MBA, Jindal Global Business School, Indi
This case analysis serves to find the best offer out of 15 offerings to a customer who is inclined to terminate
her subscription for security services.
Software Used:
SPSS/Microsoft Excel 2016
The study period as given in the case has been taken as 6 months and statistical analysis- Cox Proportional
Hazard Regression has been carried out to find out the hazard ratio and cumulative survival rates depending
upon the 15 offers as covariates.
GET DATA
/TYPE=XLSX
/FILE='C:\Users\gaura\Desktop\UV6671-XLS-ENG Original.xlsx'
/SHEET=name 'Exhibit 2'
/CELLRANGE=FULL
/READNAMES=ON
/DATATYPEMIN PERCENTAGE=95.0
/HIDDEN IGNORE=YES.
EXECUTE.
DATASET NAME DataSet1 WINDOW=FRONT.
GET
FILE='C:\Program Files\IBM\SPSS\Statistics\24\Samples\English\telco.sav'.
DATASET NAME DataSet2 WINDOW=FRONT.
DATASET ACTIVATE DataSet1.
COXREG tenure
/STATUS=Churn(1)
/PATTERN BY Offer
/CONTRAST (Offer)=Indicator
/METHOD=ENTER Offer
/PLOT SURVIVAL HAZARDS
/PRINT=CI(95)
/CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10) ITERATE(20).
Cox Regression
Notes
2
Output Created 20-NOV-2017 08:14:52
Comments
Input Active Dataset DataSet1
Filter <none>
Weight <none>
Split File <none>
N of Rows in Working Data 45022
File
Missing Value Handling Definition of Missing User-defined missing values
are treated as missing.
Syntax COXREG tenure
/STATUS=Churn(1)
/PATTERN BY Offer
/CONTRAST
(Offer)=Indicator
/METHOD=ENTER Offer
/PLOT SURVIVAL
HAZARDS
/PRINT=CI(95)
/CRITERIA=PIN(.05)
POUT(.10) ITERATE(20).
Resources Processor Time 00:00:01.20
Elapsed Time 00:00:00.67
[DataSet1]
3
Total 45017 100.0%
In the six month period from December to May, a total of 9595 individual have terminated there services in
spite of the 15 offers, rest 35422 persons have been censored and further analysis can be done on them on
the basis of exhibit 3 but it is out of the scope of this case analysis.
A major problem in the case faced by us was the unavailability of the explanation of the numbers more
than 6. A blank data was supposed to be a subsequent 9 months subscription but the significance of
number more than 10 was not given. Anyway we consider it to be the 10th month from the save date
and so on.
4
Offer(12) -.972 .065 220.344 1 .000 .378 .333 .430
Offer(13) -1.030 .066 243.418 1 .000 .357 .314 .406
Offer(14) -1.060 .097 119.976 1 .000 .346 .286 .419
All the B are negative and significant. Variables with positive coefficients (the B values) are associated with increased
hazard and decreased survival times, i.e. as the predictor increases the hazard of the event increases and the predicted
survival duration decreases. Negative coefficients indicate decreased hazard and increased survival times. The most
negative coefficient is of the offer 4 or Offer D and also exp Beta is the lowest at 0.180 . This signifies that offer 4 has the
lowest Hazard rate and the highest survival rate. We can observe the same from the below Hazard and Survival functions
graphs.
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6
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