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A great wave of disruption—anchored in artificial intelligence, robotics, self-driv-
ing cars, genomic editing, cognitive computing, the Internet of Things, and big
This is a robust,
data—is underway. As these technologies move from the fringe to the main-
stream, they promise to forever change how we live, work and play.
detailed document–
The 2017 Tech Trends Report, now in its 10th year, focuses on mid- to late-stage
don’t try to read it
emerging technologies that are on a growth trajectory. We have identified more in one sitting. Start
than 150 trends for the coming year across numerous industries, and our broad
scope was intentional. In this era of rapidly accelerating technological advance- with the executive
ment, changes within one industry necessarily impact another. We listen to sig-
nals across different sectors, and we encourage you to do the same. summary, and read
Now more than ever, organizations must examine the potential impact of tech through the top
trends. Whether you are a Fortune 500 company, a government agency, a start-
up, a university, a foundation or a small business, you must factor the trends trends listed for
in this report into your strategic thinking for the coming year, and adjust your
planning, operations and business models accordingly. Failing to track trends in your industry. In the
a meaningful way will put your competitive advantage and growth at risk.
coming weeks, spend
This is a robust, detailed document—don’t try to read it in one sitting. Start with
the executive summary, and read through the top trends listed for your industry. some time with all
In the coming weeks, spend some time with all of the trends. I hope you will take
your time with our 2017 report, and allow your mind to wander productively.
of the trends. I hope
If you use our trends during an annual meeting to set your strategy for the com- you will take your
ing year, that’s a good start—but it isn’t enough to safeguard your organization
from what’s on the horizon. Organizations that use a formal process to research
time with our 2017
and track trends are more likely to reduce risk, harness new opportunities and
drive change within their fields. What comes next won’t arrive fully formed. The
report, and allow
future is yours to build. The Future Today Institute is eager to help you in 2017 your mind to wander
and beyond.
productively.
• Crossover Trends: Leaders must pay attention to signals outside their immediate
industries. In 2017 and beyond, technology developments in one industry sector
will impact many others. For example, why should a logistics company like UPS or a
grocery store chain like Kroger pay close attention to gene editing? Well...advance-
ments in the CRISPR gene editing technique will lead to seeds for hyper-productive
plants that require just a few feet of space and don’t need much water. Those plants
could be farmed within dense urban areas, decreasing a reliance on local grocery
stores. This would impact merchants, importers, truck drivers, UPC code sticker pro-
viders, and marketing agencies, which would all experience a loss in profit. It would
devastate the farmers in countries such as Brazil, Thailand and Mexico, who could
rise up or revolt, causing political instability in those countries. This scenario isn’t
guaranteed, but it is plausible, and it’s why UPS and Kroger should at least have
gene editing on their 2017 radar. We can very easily build scenarios connecting the
dots between myriad technologies, companies and industry sectors. For that rea-
son, we encourage you to pay close attention to technology trends adjacent to
your industry.
• Government Policy: Both in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world, policy, privacy
and security will be more complicated than ever in the coming year. Technology is
changing faster than the government’s ability to legislate and regulate it—this will
lead to complicated discussions and debates in the year ahead.
• More Trends Than Ever: Our biggest takeaway (perhaps yours too, if you took a
peak at the very end of the report) is that there are many more tech trends to pay
attention to in 2017 than in previous years. Technology begets technology. We
are witnessing an explosion in slow motion.
Real trends worth your time and attention don’t have clever names. They don’t sound
“trendy.”
Our Trend Report this year is intentionally dense—there’s a lot here to digest.
That’s because it’s meant as a practical resource for you and your organiza-
This is a big report.
tion. We don’t want you to skim through this during your lunch break. Instead, We don’t want you
use it to listen for the signals talking and to advise your strategic thinking
throughout 2017. to skim through this
Don’t discount a trend simply because at first glance it doesn’t seem to relate during your lunch
directly to you or your field. Instead, think about these 159 trends and ask
yourself the following questions: break.
01 How does this trend impact our industry and all of its parts?
02 Who are the drivers of change in this trend? Which companies, leaders, founders, startups, researchers?
03 How are companies/ agencies/ organizations in adjacent spaces addressing this trend?
04 Where does this trend create potential new partners or collaborators for us?
05 How are our competitors/ related agencies harnessing this trend (or failing to do so?)
06 Which of our customer segments—existing, former, potential, theoretical—does this trend address?
07 How will the wants, needs and expectations of our customers change as a result of this trend?
© 2017 Future
5 Today Institute
THE MOST
IMPORTANT TRENDS Pay Special Attention To These Trends In Our Report
FOR YOUR INDUSTRY 01 Artificial Intelligence 56 Crowdlearning
AND ORGANIZATION
(whole section)
57 Blocking the Ad Blockers
12 Hidden Bias in AI
59 Leaking
13 Accountability and Trust
60 The First Amendment
We’ve created lists to help you find the most important tech 14 Bots in a Digital Age
trends that will matter most to you, your organization and
15 Deep Learning 63 Virtual Reality
your industry in 2017. For your convenience, industries are
16 Cognitive Computing 64 Augmented Reality
listed alphabetically along with the corresponding trends.
17 Smart Virtual Personal Assistants 65 360-degree Video
18 Ambient Interfaces 66 Holograms
19 Deep Linking 67 Data Retention Policies
20 Consolidation in AI 71 Glitches
24 Robot Companions 75 Prize Hacks
Advertising, Public Relations 26 Ethical Manufacturing 79 Weaponizing Wikileaks
Key Trend Themes For 2017 29 Productivity Bots 80 Anonymity
33 Faceless Recognition 81 Differential Privacy
Artificial Intelligence 34 Bias in Recognition Algorithms 83 Trolls
Recognition 35 Adversarial Images 84 Authenticity
Recognition 91 Ownership
13 Accountability and Trust
93 Organizational Doxing
Digital Frailty 14 Bots
95 E-Residents
16 Cognitive Computing
Security 96 Social Payments
17 Smart Virtual Personal Assistants
Privacy 97 Bitcoin and Blockchain
20 Consolidation in AI
Big Data 26 Ethical Manufacturing
99 FOBO (Fear Of Being Offline)
100 Retail APIs
E-Residents 27 Universal Basic Income
101 Digital Associates
Social Payments 28 Artificial Intelligence in Hiring
118 Old Laws Clash With
29 Productivity Bots
Bitcoin and Blockchain New Technology
31 Nanodegrees
Automation 121 Internet Mob Justice
33 Faceless Recognition
156 3D Printing
Internet Mobs and Trolls 34 Bias in Recognition Algorithms
157 Internet of X
36 Ambient Proximity
158 5G
37 Character Recognition and Analytics
39 Digital Frailty
54 Media Consolidation
57 Blocking the Ad Blockers
63 Virtual Reality
64 Augmented Reality
67 Data Retention Policies
68 Remote Kill Switches
70 Backdoors
71 Glitches
72 Darknets
75 Prize Hacks
86 Encryption Management
54 Media Consolidation 87 Eye in the Sky 131 Norms and Regulations (Biological)
Recognition 14 Bots
17 Smart Virtual Personal Assistants
Mixed Reality
28 Artificial Intelligence in Hiring
Security
29 Productivity Bots
Privacy 30 Adaptive Learning
Big Data 31 Nanodegrees
© 2017 Future
29 Today Institute
HOW TO USE THE
2017 REPORT
Our 2017 Trend Report reveals strategic opportunities and
challenges for your organization in the coming year.
The Future Today Institute’s annual Trend Report prepares leaders and organ-
izations for the year ahead, so that you are better positioned to see emerging
technology and adjust your strategy accordingly. Use our report to identify
near-future business disruption and competitive threats while simultaneously
finding new collaborators and partners. Most importantly, use our report as a
jumping off point for deeper strategic planning.
01 Key Insight
Short, easy explanation of this trend so that you can internalize it and discuss
with your colleagues.
06
05
02 Examples
01 04
Real-world use cases, some of which will sound familiar.
02
03 What’s Next
What this trend means for you and your organization in the coming year.
03
04 Watchlist
Notable companies, founders and researchers working in this trend space.
Fundamentally, a trend leverages our basic human needs and desires in a meaning-
ful way, and it aligns human nature with breakthrough technologies and inventions.
Because trends are a different way of seeing and interpreting our current reality, they provide a useful framework to
organize our thinking, especially when we’re hunting for the unknown and trying to learn something about which we
do not yet know how to ask.
There are ten modern sources of change in society with technology as the primary connector.
01 02 03 04 05
Wealth
Education Government Politics Public health
distribution
Media
(our individual and
Demography Economy Environment Journalism collective use of social
networks, chat services,
digital video channels,
photo sharing services
and so on)
06 07 08 09 10
Therefore, if we want to forecast the future of anything, we would need to plot out the intersecting vectors of
change—their direction and magnitude—as they relate to new developments in emerging technology.
These features are what make up a trend. Together they distinguish a trend from a fad, which will invariably pass.
Trends are what help us to forecast the future.
© 2017 Future
33 Today Institute
WHAT IS A TREND,
EXACTLY? Futures of Cars, 2017 - 2057
Now: within the next 12 months.
The future is simultaneously 250 By the end of 2018, cars will be equipped with software updates and new sensors that
perform more functions for the driver, such as parking and adaptive cruise control.
years, 3 decades, 1 months, 88
hours, 37 minutes and 14 seconds Near-term: 1 - 5 years.
from right now. By 2022, most cars will be equipped with cross-path cameras to sense nearby objects
and they will have adaptive cruise control for driving in stop-and-go traffic. They will
offer many driverless functions—but you will still need to operate the car in neighbor-
hoods and many city streets.
The future is simultaneously 250 years, 3 decades, 1 months,
88 hours, 37 minutes and 14 seconds from right now. Forecast-
ing the future requires thinking in contradictory ways. We must Mid-range: 5 - 10 years.
accept that the future is not predetermined—that we can both By 2027, advanced Lidar and WiFi technology will transmit your vehicle’s location and
know what’s past the horizon and intervene to shape it—while will recognize other vehicles sharing the road. This will begin to enable cars to drive
simultaneously acknowledging that any number of variables, at themselves on highways and many city streets.
any time, can influence an outcome. We must solve the paradox
of the present by practicing ambidextrous thinking.
Long-range: 10 - 20 years.
When it comes to technology, it is helpful to organize the evolu- By 2037, the highway system will have been upgraded to work in symbiosis with
tion of trends along six general time zones. They are not arbitrary; semi-autonomous vehicles. Human drivers will take over on smaller streets. On man-
they follow the pattern of acceleration across various sectors of dated autonomous highway lanes, people will be free to read, watch videos or con-
the tech ecosystem. For example, consider the evolution of cars: duct work.
Far-range: 20 - 30 years.
By 2047, we may no longer own cars and cities might no longer operate buses. In-
stead, automated buses could be subsidized thought taxes and offered at no cost.
Those with the means to do so may subscribe to a transportation service, which op-
erates vehicles that are fully automated and will take them to destinations as desired.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action HBO’s new series Westworld contemplates
a world in which artificially intelligent
humanoids are built for our amusement.
Artificial Intelligence
Second year on the list
Key Insight program is the set of meticulous, step-by-step instructions that tell a system
precisely what to do so that it will accomplish a specific task. How you want
Many facets of artificial intelligence (AI) have made our list since we first started
the computer to get from start to finish—essentially, a set of rules—is the “algo-
publishing this report a decade ago. For 2017, we have grouped them all under
rithm.”
one trend.
Machine learning programs run on neural networks and analyze data in order to
What You Need To Know About AI help computers find new things without being explicitly programmed where to
Think about AI as the next layer of technology that will be integrated into look. Within the field of AI, machine learning is useful because it can help com-
everything you do professionally. Simply put, AI is a branch of computer sci- puters to predict and make real-time decisions without human intervention.
ence in which computers are programmed to do things that normally require
human intelligence. This includes learning, reasoning, problem-solving, under-
standing language and perceiving a situation or environment. AI is an extremely
001 Deep Neural Networks (see also “Deep Learning”)
large, broad field, which uses its own computer languages and even special kids Deep learning is a relatively new branch of machine learning, and it will soon be
of computer networks WHICH are modeled on our human brains. The idea that an invisible part of every organization. Programmers use special deep learning
we might someday create artificially intelligent, sentient robots was first sug- algorithms alongside a corpus of data—typically many terabytes of text, images,
gested by prominent philosophers in the mid-1600s. videos, speech and the like. The system is trained to learn on its own. While con-
ceptually, deep learning isn’t new, what’s changed recently is the amount of com-
There are two kinds of AI: weak (or “narrow”) and strong (or “general”). When
pute power and the volume of data that’s become available. In practical terms,
Netflix makes recommendations to you, or Amazon displays books you might
this means that more and more human processes will be automated. Including
like to read, that’s narrow AI. The H.A.L. supercomputer from 2001: A Space
the writing of software, which computers will soon start to do themselves.
Odyssey, which was not only sentient, but decided it no longer had use for us
humans, is a representation of artificial general intelligence.
002 Real-Time Machine Learning
For the past six decades, researchers have been modeling AI using our own hu-
man brain as inspiration. Neural networks are the basic computer architecture It is recently possible to use a continual flow of transactional data and adjust
that attempts to mimic some of what we know about how the human brain and models in real-time. Potential use cases include: matching customers to the right
central nervous system transfers signals. product as they are looking at a website, re-writing content on a site to match the
needs of each individual user, real-time fraud detection, and security measures
A neural network is the place where information is sent and received, and a such as authenticating someone based on her typing habits.
and online identities is an emerging application. Irish startup Sedicii recently 010 Algorithm Marketplaces
launched its zero-proof software, which promises to reduce fraud. Researchers
at Microsoft and Princeton University are working on a zero-knowledge proof Most organizations can’t staff a team of developers who have unlimited time to
so that inspectors can identify something as a nuclear weapon without requiring create, test and refine algorithms. As a result, communities of developers are of-
them to take it apart, which would spread information about how to build one. fering up their algorithms in emerging algorithm marketplaces. Algorithmia and
DataMapper are a sort of Amazon for algorithms, where developers can upload
their work to the cloud and receive payment when others pay to access it. DataXu
009 Algorithmic Personality Detection offers a marketplace for its proprietary algorithms. PrecisionHawk has launched
Marketers will soon have access to algorithms that can assess your personality a marketplace for predictive agriculture algos. A number of other networks, such
and predict your specific needs and desires. Nashville-based startup Crystal and as Nara Logics, MetaMind, Clarifai offer tools for developers to build deep learn-
IBM’s Personality Insights both use social data and will rewrite everything from ing into any application. Look for even more niche marketplaces in 2017.
emails to resumes based on each of your intended recipients. Meanwhile, some
life insurance underwriters are attempting to assess your personality—via your 011 Pre-Trained AI Chips
magazine and website subscriptions, the photos you post to social media, and
more—in order to determine how risky an investment you are. Some lenders have A number of companies, including IBM, Google, Intel and Movidius, are working
used personality algorithms to predict your future financial transactions. (The on extremely powerful chips, and some come pre-trained. In short, this means
data show that if you look at two people with the same professional and personal that the chips are ready to work on AI projects. Google’s chip is called a Tensor
circumstances, the one with a higher college G.P.A. will be more likely to pay off Processing Unit (or TPU), and was specifically built for the deep learning branch
a debt.) Algorithms will harness your data in order to assess your predicted suc- of AI. It is designed to work with the company’s TensorFlow system. For refer-
cess at work, how likely you are to bounce around jobs and more. ence, TPUs are what was used in the famous AlphaGo match between Goog-
le’s DeepMind system and a world Go champion. Marketing pre-trained chips to
businesses will speed up commercialization and as a result will further R&D.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action As of October 6, 2016, the first instance of
a woman returned for “CEO” in a Google
Images search was a marketing photo for the
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Trust and accountability are important trends
within AI in 2017.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action The Tay.ai Twitter bot went on a
homophobic, sexist, racist, anti-Semitic
bender within 24 hours of its launch.
Bots
Second year on the list
Key Insight free-wheeling internet. During the recent campaign cycle, we witnessed the rise
of botnets—networks of computers designed to send out spam. Fake social me-
You’ve no doubt heard of a bot: a software application that’s been designed to
dia accounts, many of which originated in Russia, artfully tricked people into hav-
automate certain tasks, such as scheduling or managing basic customer service
ing arguments about everything from Donald Trump to immigration to taxes.
requests. In the past year, bots have emerged from the fringe and have started
to enter our mainstream vocabulary. There are now 12,000 Facebook Messenger The intelligence community should deploy bots for surveillance and for digital
bots available, as well as a number of platforms that make it easy for anyone to diplomacy. HR managers can use bots to train employees. Meantime, as Slack
build a bot. continues to grow in scale and popularity, bots within that environment will help
automate meetings and status updates and more, saving time and increasing
Examples productivity.
In the 1960s, Joseph Weizenbaum wrote a computer program called Eliza that
was capable of simulating a conversation between a psychiatrist and patient. It Watchlist
offered up plausible responses to common questions. In March 2016, the world Russia; Weibo; WeChat; Alphabet (Google); Snapchat; China; Microsoft; Chatfuel;
watched as @Tai.ai, a Microsoft experimental Twitterbot, went on an anti-Semitic, Pandorabots; Twilio; Amazon; Facebook; Slack
homophobic, racist rampage within 24 hours after its first tweet.
What’s Next
Many brands you recognize (1-800-Flowers.com, Pizza Hut and Dutch airline
KLM) are using chatbots for marketing and customer service. Disney partnered
with bot developer Imperson to deploy character bots, including Miss Piggy.
Tai.ai was built on the same platform as Microsoft’s experimental Mandarin-lan-
guage bot, Xiaoice. Both were capable of intimate conversations with users, be-
cause the program is able to remember details from previous conversations and
because it mined the Internet for human conversations in order to synthesize
chat sessions. The key difference: Xiaoice was released in a country where cit-
izens carefully guard their activity online, while Tai.ai was born into America’s
07 Does the corpus (the initial, base set of questions and answers)
02 Does your bot perform its designated function well?
you’ve created reflect only one gender, race or ethnicity?
If so, was that intentional?
03 Is your bot easy to access, either on a designated platform
or across platforms?
08 Did you assign your bot a traditional gender, ethnic or racial
identity? If so, does it reference any stereotypes?
04 Is it intuitive and easy to use?
10 Does your bot help people learn about their own biases
or broaden their worldviews?
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Google’s DeepMind challenge a champion
Go player to a game—and won.
Deep Learning
Second year on the list
Watchlist
Baidu; IBM; Stanford’s AI Lab and Vision Lab; MIT’s CSAIL; Google; Amazon; Mi-
crosoft; Fujitsu, Facebook; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Bell Labs; University
of Toronto; University of California - Los Angeles, University of California - Berke-
ley; NSA; Qualcomm
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action IBM’s Watson is a cognitive computing
platform.
Cognitive Computing
Fifth year on the list
Watchlist
IBM Research, Cognitive Horizons Network
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Amazon’s Echo is an SVPA for your living
room.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Google Home’s ambient interface delivers
you just the information you need, whenever
you need it.
Ambient Interfaces
Second year on the list
Examples
If you’ve interacted with Google Now or Amazon’s Alexa, or if you own a smart-
watch, you’ve used an ambient interface. It listens—figuratively and literally—and
automatically delivers you the information you need to know, just as you need to
know it.
What’s Next
In our modern age of information, the average adult now makes more than 10,000
decisions a day: some big, like whether or not to invest in the stock market, and
some small, like whether to glance at your mobile phone when you see the screen
light up. What makes ambient design so tantalizing is that it should require us to
make fewer and fewer decisions in the future. Think of it as a sort of autocom-
plete for intention. Our mobile devices and many of the wearables coming to
market will be listening and observing in the background and will offer up either
text, audio or haptic notifications as needed, and those will be decided by algo-
rithm. In 2017, we expect to see even more ambient interfaces being embedded
into productivity software and apps, tools used by law enforcement, customer
loyalty apps, news apps and gaming systems.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Like Uber, many platforms are now offering
deep mobile links.
Deep Linking
Third year on the list (non-consecutive)
Examples
There are three kinds of deep links: traditional, deferred and contextual. Tradition-
al deep links reroute you from one app or site (such as a link posted in Twitter)
directly to the app, as long as you have that app installed. Deferred deep links
either link straight to content if the app is installed, or to an app store for you to
download the app first. In 2016, we saw the proliferation of deep linking through-
out the Apple and Android operating systems. Contextual deep links offer much
more robust information—they take you from site to app, app to site, or app to
app, and they can also offer personalized information. For example, when you
land at the airport, you might find that your airline app sends you a link to Uber.
(You’ll find similar offerings within Google Maps.) Apple’s iOS10 enables quick
switching and sharing between apps via deep links.
What’s Next
This interoperability signals a new shift in thinking, as many mobile app devel-
opers have been hesitant to use deep links. With Google and Apple’s changes,
app-to-app experiences should start to become more common. For example,
Branch is a startup that helps developers deliver previews of their applications
before users install them. We expect to see this trend develop as the deep linking
ecosystem starts to take off in the coming year.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Consolidation has begun within AI.
Consolidation in AI
First year on the list
Key Insight
All of the recent enthusiasm for AI has led to a number of startups—along with
lightening-fast acquisitions. Some now worry that the still nascent field of AI is
already under the direction of too few companies.
Examples
In the past year, Apple has bought Seattle-based AI startup Turi for $200 million,
but it isn’t the only company shopping around. To date, the top acquirer of AI
startups includes Google, Twitter, Apple, Intel, Salesforce, AOL and IBM, in that
order.
What’s Next
As with any technology, when just a few companies dominate the field, they tend
to monopolize both talent and intellectual property. This isn’t necessarily bad, but
when it comes to the future of AI, we should ask whether consolidation makes
sense for the greater good, and whether competition—and therefore access—will
eventually be hindered as we’ve seen in other fields such as telecommunications
and cable.
Watchlist
Alphabet (Google); Apple; Microsoft; Intel; Salesforce; AOL; IBM; Facebook; Am-
azon.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Dr. Miguel Nicolelis and his team of researchers
at the Center for Neuroengineering at Duke
University are researching how to connect our
Human-Machine Interfaces
brains to machines. This brain-controlled car
is being operated by a rhesus monkey, whose
brains are similar to ours.
Second year on the list
What’s Next
The team at Duke is now working on a so-called “Brainet,” which connects the
brains of a group of mammals to harness and direct their neural activity. One
successful experiment: to see if networking rats together would allow researchers
to solve a basic forecasting problem that individual rats struggled to complete
on their own. In every trial, the Brainet successfully solved the problem, and per-
formance improved the more the rats worked together. This work has a practical
and altruistic purpose: to help victims of stroke or traumatic brain injury regain
their cognitive abilities and motor function. Rather than having to relearn, they
need only reload those memories.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action The University of Stuttgart’s multi-lens
system next to a single doublet lens.
Smart Dust
First year on the list
Examples
For years, researchers have been hard at work on miniaturization, as they try to
shrink computers as much as possible, down to the size of sand or dust. Each
particle-computer consists of circuits and sensors capable of monitoring the en-
vironment, and even taking photographs. Scientists at the University of Califor-
nia Berkeley developed what they call “neural dust,” which are microscopic com-
puters that work alongside remote ultrasound to send and receive data about
the brain. Meanwhile, researchers at the University of Stuttgart figured out how
to print tiny 3D lenses—120 millionths of a meter in diameter, or about the size of
a grain of sand.
What’s Next
Researchers believe that this technology will dramatically change our approach
to medical imaging. Rather than relying on our current endoscopic technology,
which is bulky and invasive, a patient could simply inhale smart dust. Beyond
medicine, trillions of smart dust particles could be released in the wind to meas-
ure air quality or take photos. But we must also consider other use cases: would
you know if you’d inhaled rouge smart dust on a windy day? In the farther-future,
could this technology be used to track us surreptitiously?
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action This octobot is an example of a soft robot.
Soft Robotics
First year on the list
Examples
Scientists at the BioRobotics Institute at the Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna in Pisa,
Italy, have been investigating soft robotics. Recently, they created a robot octo-
pus, capable of replicating the animals’s agile motions. In order to replicate the
biology of an octopus, they built computer models using exact measurements
and then experimented with a number of soft actuators to develop artificial mus-
cles. Researchers at Worchester Polytechnic Institute have been working on a
robotic snake.
What’s Next
Soft robots mean that someday soon, we will be able to enter and explore envi-
ronments previously unreachable by conventional methods: deep ocean waters,
the terrain of Mars, and perhaps even the gushing rivers of blood inside our own
bodies. This is just the beginning. Don’t expect to play with a squishy robot drone
at your next pool party. However those who follow drones, robotics, infrastruc-
ture and defense should have new prototypes to look at in 2017.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Pepper is a robot companion from Japan’s
SoftBank.
Robot Companions
First year on the list
What’s Next
Within a generation, there will not be enough people to make Japanese society
work as it does today—but Japan isn’t alone in its demographic shift. Many in-
dustrialized countries, including the U.S., could suffer the same fate. For those
concerned that AI and robots will take away jobs, that doesn’t necessarily take
into consideration that we already didn’t have enough citizens ready to do the
work on their own.
Anyone interested in the future of robotics would be wise to look not to Silicon
Valley, but instead to universities and R&D labs in Japan, where extensive re-
search on the next generation of robot companions is already underway. Out
Collaborative Robots
First year on the list
Key Insight
Robots that communicate in real-time and cooperate on projects make a strong Watchlist
team.
Carnegie Mellon University; MIT’s Interactive Robotics Group; DARPA; Auton-
Examples omous Solutions; Energid Technologies; Boston Dynamics; Alphabet (Google);
Amazon; ABB Robotics; Aethon Inc.; FANUC Robotics; EPSON Robotics; Seegrid;
Teams of robots are now capable of working together, and they’re efficient, since
SoftBank Robotics Corporation; Toyota; ULC Robotics; VEX Robotics; Yamaha;
not every single robot has to excel at every task. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon
University of Tokyo; Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory
University have built collaborative robots that are designed to work together.
In their recent work, a robot named Baxter is stationed at a table working on a
project. Once completed, another robot on the team—CoBot—picks up the item
and hands it to a human. Teams of collaborative robots can communicate to each
other, on their own, about when to wait, when to move, to carry out an activity,
or even to ask what to do.
What’s Next
Use your imagination and you can probably see what’s on the horizon. Collabora-
tive robots will play a key role in automating the tasks performed in warehouses,
manufacturing plants, logistics and delivery services. They will also run opera-
tions in conflict zones.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Factories staffed with robots could mean
the end of harsh working conditions.
Ethical Manufacturing
First year on the list
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action A UBI would guarantee income for everyone.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action AI-assisted hiring could reduce bias and
diversity workforces.
Key Insight
Researchers are finding that the usual data sources—test scores, GPAs and the
like—aren’t reliable indicators of talent.
Examples
Artificial Intelligence is being used to assess personal attributes like empathy,
thoughtfulness, engagement, motivation and drive. Coupled with social media
screening—looking at an applicants previous posts on Facebook, Twitter, Insta-
gram, blogs and elsewhere online—emerging systems consider both personality
and behavior when evaluating possible new hires. Companies like RoundPegg
and Interviewed, which collects data and performs assessments on candidates,
are being used by high-profile clients including ExxonMobil, Xerox and Razorfish.
What’s Next
One likely future benefit of AI-assisted hiring is that machines—theoretically, at
least—can be more objective than people. However, as we start to rely more on
these systems, we must also redouble our efforts to ensure that the algorithms
and data used aren’t also subject to bias. After all, these systems were originally
envisioned, architected and programmed by humans.
Watchlist
Mya A.I.; Recruit Strategic Partners; HackerRank; LinkedIn; IBM Watson; Alphabet
(Google); Facebook; University of Oxford’s Martin Programme on the Impacts of
Future Technology; Xerox; Razorfish; ExxonMobil; RoundPegg; Interviewed.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Slack is a popular platform that now
includes bot assistants.
Productivity Bots
Second year on the list
Key Insight
Productivity Bots will help assist workers and students perform tasks more effi-
ciently.
Examples
Slack is a popular hybrid instant message/ email system that lets you sort and
tag, search, and choose to broadcast messages to your whole team or just to a
few members.The average Slack user spends around 140 minutes (nearly two
and a half hours) per weekday on the service, and much of the reason is because
Slack bots can automate myriad productivity services on their behalf. For exam-
ple: you can automatically retrieve and read news from multiple sources, set work
and break timers, plan meetings and events for a few staff without spamming an
entire team and collaborate on Google docs. Productivity bots are now offered in
a number of different office apps, including Yammer, HipChat and Skype.
What’s Next
Slack’s success has inspired numerous startups and competitors, including Mi-
crosoft, which introduced its own product late 2016. We should expect deeper
integrations across all platforms and services in 2017, which should promise even
more increased productivity. Watch for more automated features within Trello,
Dropbox, Google Drive, Heroku, Mailchimp and Zendesk, to name a few.
Watchlist
Slack; Alphabet (Google); Yammer; HipChat; Skype; Trello; Dropbox; IFTTT; Hero-
ku; Y Comibinator; Mailchimp; Zendesk; Microsoft.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Adaptive learning software is being used to
power digital textbooks.
Adaptive Learning
First year on the list
Examples
Adaptive learning software tailors the coursework for each student individually.
Students are assessed in real time, so that concepts and skills are presented in a
way that’s easiest for her to understand. Students are therefore able to work at
their own pace. The machine learning techniques powering the software requires
a large amount of data—which means many thousands of students—to be effec-
tive. Geekie, an adaptive learning startup, is now being used in thousands of high
schools across Brazil.
What’s Next
The number of startups in the adaptive learning space will continue to grow, es-
pecially as more schools gain access to portable technology. In the near-future,
computerized textbooks will adapt to each student. These systems will not re-
place teachers, but rather enable teachers to more adroitly support each individ-
ual student. There are opportunities for publishers to extract more revenue from
their core offerings: schools and students might subscribe to books rather than
buying them outright. However adaptive learning also stands to disrupt the text-
book value chain, from book sellers, to printers, to recycling centers to logging
companies.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Udacity recently introduced its
“nanodegree” program.
Nanodegrees
First year on the list
Examples
One theory emerging from Silicon Valley is that our traditional, four-year post-sec-
ondary degree system alone cannot serve our future workforce in the years to
come. With the advent of automation and AI, we will need highly-specialized
skills, the sort that aren’t offered within universities. Some prominent technolo-
gists, including Stanford University professors (who’ve also worked at Alphabet)
Sebastian Thrun and Andrew Ng, say that nanodegrees are necessary to help
workers stay current. Courses, which could be completed in just a few months,
are intended to be taken alongside a job. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the popular ed-
ucation platforms Udacity, Coursera and edX all emerged from AI labs. Rather
than attempting to completely overhaul our educational system, nanodegrees,
which can be earned at a pace and during a time that works best for each indi-
vidual, are proving to be a reasonable way to keep up with technology.
What’s Next
Expect to see more platforms emerge, as well as new pricing models. Now that
nanodegrees have started to catch on, we will see fewer free courses. In the next
few years, platforms and course providers will need to think through their busi-
ness models. We should also start asking questions about future digital divides—
should there be a more egalitarian way to help everyone better their skills?
Examples
German researchers have discovered how to create thermal faceprints by taking
heat maps of our faces and using machine vision to recognize patterns. Their
technology can accurately identify a face—and in under 35 milliseconds, regard-
less of the amount of lighting or the facial expressions people make. (See Trend
20, Deep Learning.)
What’s Next
San Diego-based KnuEdge built a military-grade platform capable of recognizing
our individual voices, even in a noisy environment. Founded by NASA’s former
Chief Administrator and its Chief Technology Officer, KnuEduge recently hired
world-class voice impersonators to see if they could fool the system, but the
technology prevailed every time.
MIT researchers have learned that WiFi can now identify you just by bouncing
signals around—your unique shape and posture are used to reveal who you are,
even in a crowded room of people. Emerging research has shown that WiFi can
be used to recognize what a person is saying or writing with a pen—simply by
analyzing the WiFi signals altered by our bodies. Which means that soon, we’ll
see through walls.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action PredPol’s predictive policing system.
Examples Watchlist
During 2016, we saw a number of cases in which the algorithms got it wrong: they PredPol; HunchLab; National Institute of Justice; Hitachi’s Visualization Predictive
misidentified innocent people as criminals and predicted that certain city blocks Crime Analytics; a police department near you.
were likely to see a spike in violent offenses or drug trafficking. All of these cases
had one thing in common: they involved black people. Investigations from a num-
ber of universities, media organizations and activist groups revealed bias in the
software. For example, the PredPol predictive policing system, which is used by
police departments around the U.S., recommended time and time again that de-
partments concentrate their efforts on neighborhoods that were overwhelmingly
poor and black. The problem has to do with how arrest data is gathered, and how
individual police departments have historically monitored their local communi-
ties. The model didn’t include a rigorous check on bias in the initial data sets.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Extra information can be added to an image
to fool algorithms.
Adversarial Images
First year on the list
Examples
In order for machine learning systems to learn, they must recognize subtle dif-
ferences. For example, a computer scientist might slightly alter an image of a lla-
ma—using something as tiny as a few scattered pixles—and fool the system into
miscategorizing the image as something completely different, such as a shoe or
a cup of coffee. When that happens, an adjustment is made to the system and it
continues training.
What’s Next
Adversarial images can also be used to knowingly and purposely trick a machine
learning system. If an attacker trains a model, using very slightly altered images,
the adversarial examples could then be deployed out into other models. There
are implications for companies that use images as secondary passwords (such
as Bank of America’s sign-on system), for search engines (Google, Bing) and
for any service that automatically tags our photos (law enforcement databases,
Facebook).
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action IBM Watson’s Personality Insights API
analyzed Oprah Winfrey’s tweets to create
her profile.
Key Insight
Emerging predictive analytics tools wrangle your data, behavior and preferences
in order to map your personality—and predict how you’re likely to react in just
about any situation.
Examples
IBM Watson and Twitter offer a tool that mines Twitter feeds and weather data
to identify consumers who are likely to fire off angry tweets if their cable service
is disrupted. Those complaints aren’t empty threats: IBM’s data shows a correla-
tion between disgruntled tweets and customer loss. IBM’s technology can scan
individuals’ social media data and analyze their personalities to predict responses
to an email or an ad. Recruiting startups, dating sites and school application plat-
forms are all starting to experiment with personality recognition software. Nash-
ville-based startup Crystal culls thousands of public data sources to help you
learn about someone’s personality before calling or emailing them. It even offers
a kind of spell check for sentiment, autocorrecting phrases and making recom-
mendations (“keep the message under 200 words, otherwise this recipient might
ignore it”) so that the message resonates better with your intended recipient.
Attention
Third year on the list
Examples
Making sure that content fits correctly on a screen is only solving part of the
challenge—what about content fitting our needs and behaviors as both change
throughout the day? In order to capture someone’s attention, you must consider
a number of variables: where is she right now? What’s she likely to be doing in the
next 60 seconds? What’s relevant to her in the next few minutes? What need can
you fulfill for her at this moment?
What’s Next
We believe that any organization that publishes any kind of content for any rea-
son—whether that’s a news organization, a social network, a brand or a branch of
the government—must focus less on the device a customer is holding and more
on what the customer herself is doing. Soon, content creators will work alongside
algorithms to syndicate different versions to different devices depending on a
user’s individual needs, given that those needs will change throughout her day.
Watchlist
Facebook; Alphabet (Google); Chartbeat; Washington Post; New York Times; Na-
tional Public Radio; Financial Times; Refinery29; Buzzfeed; Mic; Vocativ.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action The Internet Archive is saving some—but not
all—of our content.
Digital Frailty
Second year on the list
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action In this age of technology, we need a
nutritional label for news.
Key Insight
Now that news organizations are relying on data, algorithms, and machine learn-
ing for various aspects of news gathering and publishing, they should commit to
transparency.
Examples
There are too many instances of bias in algorithms to list. Just as consumers ex-
pect to see a byline on stories, because it creates a chain of accountability, they
will soon expect to know how stories were built. Reporters aided and augmented
by smart systems should explain what data sets and tools they used. Meanwhile,
stories that were written in part or entirely by computers should reflect that an
algorithm was responsible for the piece of content being read/ watched.
What’s Next
It is in the public’s best interest, and in the best interest of newsrooms, to create
a nutritional label of sorts for stories, explaining which technologies and datasets
were used. Whether a label or simply a few sentences below each story, we ex-
pect to see more transparency in how stories were reported in 2017.
Watchlist
Tow Center for Digital Journalism; Columbia Journalism Review; news organiza-
tions everywhere.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action The New York Times introduced an
experimental limited-edition SMS product
for the Olympics.
Key Insight
Some organizations have begun to experiment with temporary products: limit-
ed-run newsletters, podcasts that only last a set number of episodes, live SMS
offerings that happen only during events.
Examples
Limited-edition news products doesn’t necessarily mean creating a bunch of la-
bor-intensive one-offs. Rather, they can be templates that your organization can
use, iterate on and redeploy again and again. Whether it’s a planned news event
(like the 2016 Election), an annual conference (CES, SXSW), a season (basketball,
football, winter weather), or a big story that has a defined beginning and end,
limited-edition news products are starting to be used by news organizations.
What’s Next
In 2017, expect to see more temporary podcasts, newsletters and chatbots that
are deployed specifically for just one event. This is a revenue and outreach oppor-
tunity, as they are vehicles for targeted, short-run advertising.
Watchlist
Media organizations; content marketers.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Michael Ferro, chairman of tronc, said in
2016 that his company would use AI to
create 2,000 videos a day.
What’s Next
The challenge with declaring AI in newsrooms a fait accompli is that we are only
at the very beginning of the artificial intelligence era. In the next 24-36 months,
object recognition, natural language algorithms, generative language, machine
learning and compute power will coalesce to make it possible for computers to
identify what’s in photos, text and videos, extract meaning, and automatically
generate multimedia stories—but we’re not quite there yet today. Our research
shows that in the coming year we will see new innovations and experiments in
how AI can be used in newsrooms.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Backchannel is a new breed of website with
a highly engaged niche audience.
One-To-Few Publishing
Second year on the list
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action In the near-future, journalism could be
offered as a broader service via the cloud.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Metrics will become more transparent in
2017.
Transparency in Metrics
Second year on the list
Examples
Metrics are neither easy to find nor easy to understand for many working inside
of content organizations. In September 2016, Facebook apologized for display-
ing incorrect numbers of video plays to advertisers and publishers, and said that
it had been showing incorrect metrics for two years as it attempted to challenge
YouTube. Earlier in the year, current and former Facebook staff alleged they were
instructed to suppress conservative news from the site’s “Trending Topics” area.
It goes without saying that metrics can influence editorial and business decisions,
not to mention how the public interprets the popularity of a story. Most large
news organizations have hired audience engagement and analytics managers as
go-betweens.
What’s Next
Publishers and advertisers will question the validity of metrics that they, them-
selves, cannot verify. Anyone creating content needs to understand the ebb and
flow of traffic and how one piece of content fits into the broader scope of the or-
ganization. We expect to see news and other content organizations develop new
models to bring transparency in metrics to staff—without jeopardizing editorial
integrity.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Apture was an early experiment in layering
contextual information on websites.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action CNN created an experimental conversational
news bot for Messenger.
Conversational Interfaces
First year on the list
What’s Next
Conversational interfaces can simulate the conversations that a reporter might
have with her editor, as she talks through the facts of a story. Bottable interfaces
and platforms, such as Pandorabots and Chatfuel, will start to replace standard
search and FAQ’s. Meanwhile, journalists will engage in conversations with ma-
chines to assist in reporting. IBM Watson’s various APIs, including Visual Recog-
nition, AlchemyLanguage, Conversation and Tone Analyzer can all be used to
assist reporters with their work.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action This listicle became the gold standard for
many journalists in 2013.
Dynamic Listicles
First year on the list
Key Insight
A listicle is a short-form of explanatory writing that uses a list as its structure. Dy-
namic listicles are that same content made interactive via chatbots.
Examples
In 2013-2015, listicles were everywhere. One of the most popular New York Times
stories during that period was “52 Places to Go in 2014.” Listicles are still the
bread-and-butter of newer startups like Upworthy, BuzzFeed and Vox. Because
of the structured nature of listicles, they are perfect material for chatbots.
What’s Next
In September, in her annual presentation at the 2016 Online News Association
conference, Future Today Institute founder Amy Webb discussed the emergence
and promise of dynamic listicles. They can be used for a number of different sto-
ries: elections, breaking news events, public health epidemics, sports and more.
News outlets of all sizes and journalists working inside of various organizations
are now starting to experiment with them.
Watchlist
World Bank; State Department; Russia Today; CNN; BuzzFeed; Washington Post;
McClatchy Corporation; New York Times; Vox; Refinery29; Upworthy.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Google recently added a Fact Check tag to
its Google News stories.
Examples
Digital tools have made it easy to report on a live event and publish in real time,
but adding context—such as whether or not a source’s statement is factually ac-
curate—usually happens after. In 2009, the Tampa Bay Times won a Pulitzer for
its PolitiFact project, which fact-checked the presidential election. PolitiFact is
now an independent journalism website where reporters and editors fact-check
statements made by the government, political candidates and advocacy groups.
In 2011, MIT student Dan Schultz launched Truth Goggles, which originally en-
abled users to fact-check stories on the Internet. Truth Teller was mechanized,
transcribing videos using speech recognition, and it eventually pivoted into a
broader annotation tool. In 2016, the presidential debates were fact checked by a
number of groups, including National Public Radio (NPR), the Washington Post,
and even Hillary Clinton’s own staff. The efforts were people-powered.
What’s Next
Late in 2016, Google introduced a fact-check tag to its Google News service:
readers can see fact checks next to trending stories. As we saw in this most re-
cent election cycle, inaccuracies and falsehoods quickly spread on social media
masquerading as the truth. News organizations have a tremendous opportunity
to use AI along with social media data and their own article databases, to build
tools for real-time fact checking, adding a critical editorial layer that’s both good
for the public interest and good for building brand reputation.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Digital video will continue to grow in 2017.
Video
Sixth year on the list
Key Insight Communications, for whom broadband subscriptions had been filling the widen-
ing cable TV subscriber gap.
U.S. adults now spend close to an hour a day watching online video, and in-
creasingly we’re using our mobile phones to access that content. But not all
adults prefer video. An October Pew Research Center survey found that more 052 WebRTC
Americans prefer to watch their news (46%) than to read it (35%) or listen to WebRTC is the real-time communications technology powering Google Hang-
it (17%). But the demographics might surprise you: Americans age 50 or older outs. WebRTC can be used to connect your smartphone to the articles you’re
prefer video, while the majority of 18 to 29-year-olds (42%) prefer reading the reading on your desktop or tablet, displaying different components depending
news. Still, advertising and marketing budgets are flowing freely to the agencies on what offers the best user experience. If a video won’t display well on your
creating video—and to the platforms distributing it. Video ad spending topped current device, you could be offered a different version automatically. Because
$5 billion in 2016. WebRTC works from the browser (Firefox or Chrome), it’s also part of one of
the other trends we’re continuing to watch: connected machines. Rather than
050 Connected TVs bridging computers to networks, which must route and relay information along
various channels, WebRTC and similar peer-to-peer technologies help computers
TVs that connect to the internet certainly aren’t new. What’s changed is penetra-
to talk to each other without obstruction. This may seem like a subtle change in
tion in average households and the availability of streaming apps that bypass the
Internet architecture, but consider the implications: you would no longer need a
standard list of cable and public broadcasting channels, such as Amazon Prime
third-party operator, like Skype, to video conference with a friend. Games would
Video, Hulu, YouTube, iPlayer (UK-only), All 4 (UK only), Playstation Now, Crack-
load and play faster. Pandora and Spotify wouldn’t need to buffer.
le, HBO GO, and of course, Netflix.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Google recently added a Fact Check tag to
its Google News stories.
Media Consolidation
Second year on the list
Key Insight
We are starting to see a handover of sorts: the shrinking of traditional media com- Watchlist
panies just as newer media organizations are consolidated under single owners.
Viacom; Time Warner; News Corp; Discovery; Bloomberg; Disney; Comcast;
Examples Amazon; AT&T; Vox; Vice; HBO; Netflix; BuzzFeed; Facebook; Twitter; Alphabet
(Google).
Two oft-repeated rumors in 2016 were that Apple wanted to buy Netflix and
Time Warner, and that either Disney or News Corp. would buy Vice Media. The
fact that so many people were ruminating about the acquisitions does highlight
just how much consolidation is underway. Within the past two years, Univision
won the bankruptcy auction for Gawker Media Group (and killed Gawker.com
after the sale). AT&T, which owns DirecTV, considered bids for Starz, Paramount
Pictures, and in the end, won Time Warner. Re/code became part of Vox, which
became part of NBC, which a while back became part of Comcast. Verizon ac-
quired AOL. The Financial Times was acquired by Nikkei (for a staggering $1.3
billion). Will BuzzFeed be next? Will Amazon acquire Vox? Will Bloomberg buy
the Atlantic? Will Facebook and Twitter merge? Or will Facebook eat the whole
media landscape?
What’s Next
The next 24 months will be about rapid product creation and monetization in a
rush for investment and exits. By the year 2021, it’s possible that AT&T, Verizon,
Comcast, Charter and Amazon will have replaced CBS, Viacom, the New York
Times, Hearst and Conde Nast as the biggest news and entertainment media
brands in the U.S.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action IBM’s News Explorer helps reporters and
researchers see connections between
keywords.
Examples
It’s one thing to find and mine public data—analyzing what’s there, and connect-
ing the seemingly unconnectable dots, is another challenge entirely. Cognitive
computing systems are allowing journalists to combine what they find in the data
and then see the connections between facts, keywords and concepts. In this way,
they can reveal interconnected relationships between people and organizations
that they might not have otherwise seen.
What’s Next
News organizations will soon have access to new CARv2.0 tools from IBM’s
Alchemy News API, including its News Explorer. Investigative teams will incor-
porate machine learning techniques into their current workflows to help them
discover context and meaning within the data. In 2017, we will be watching Pro-
Publica especially, which has been doing a stellar job of building and using tools
for investigative reporting.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Waze is a platform that can also be used for
crowdlearning.
Crowdlearning
First year on the list
Examples
In June 2016, the evening after citizens in the United Kingdom voted for Brexit,
Google revealed sobering search data: people in the UK were Googling “what
is the EU.” This passive data told an interesting story, and it’s just part of what
we’re now able to learn from the crowd by monitoring various networks. Our
smartphone ownership has reached critical mass, and so has our use of various
networks. Our data not only follows us around, it’s often available for anyone to
search, collect and analyze.
What’s Next
Good crowdlearning sources are already available to us, and they include Health-
Data.gov, Google’s busy times data for businesses and public spaces, Waze,
Wikipedia and more. We anticipate that more news organizations—as well as
marketers, activists and other groups—will start harnessing data in creative ways.
That’s because our thinking results in behavior (like searching for “what is the
EU?”). Our behavior results in data. And that data can be used to learn something
about us.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Many people use ad blockers to improve
their experience or to protect their privacy.
Key Insight
Ad blockers are software that automagically remove ads from webpages. Typi- Watchlist
cally, they are browser (Chrome, Firefox) extensions. Soon, publishers will deploy
their own ad blocker-blocking tools. Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB); retargeting companies (Criteo; AdRoll);
creative optimization companies (AdExtent; Ad Ready); agency trading desks
Examples (Cadreon, Xaxis); exchanges (OpenX, doubleclick, Facebook Exchange); media
planning; ad networks (Alphabet, AOL, Amazon, Facebook); targeted networks;
Often, people who use ad blockers are doing so either because ads slow down a
mobile-specific networks.
site’s loading time, or because the ads served are offensive, inappropriate for kids,
or aren’t safe for work. Last year, German publisher Axel Springer released a new
system that prevented readers from loading the Bild news site until they turned
off their ad blockers. In December 2015, Forbes followed suit—so did Wired in
February 2016. All of the publishers showed a note instructing readers to whitelist
them in the blocking software—but there are still ways of getting to their content
(RSS, “reading mode,” or incognito/ private mode within browsers).
What’s Next
Internet researchers have discovered that readers aren’t likely to whitelist sites—
it’s not that they object to advertising, but rather to seeing inappropriate ads, or
to being tracked by the code that marketers use. According to internet tracking
service Alexa, Axel Springer’s Bild bounce rate skyrocketed from 2% up to 40%
and time spent on site down 6%. The other sites have fared no better. Publishers
will need to spend time in 2017 developing a different strategy for ad blocking,
whether that’s allowing readers an incentive for displaying ads, or allowing them
to choose what kind of ads to show. Which also means that publishers will need
to work closely with ad serving companies and online advertisers to ensure that
the right kinds of ads are being shown.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action NLG can be used to help readers of all levels
engage with a story.
What’s Next
As news organizations search for new revenue streams, and as marketers try
to expand their global reach, NLG will be used not just to write stories—but to
create different versions for audiences with varying reading skills. That’s because
the basic corpus—the data that makes up the story—wouldn’t change, but the
vocabulary and amount of detail could be adjusted. For example, a single story
about the results of Berkshire Hathaway’s quarterly earnings could be rendered
in many different ways: for finance professionals, for high school economics class-
es, for beginning English as a second language learners, and for MBA students in
non-English speaking countries.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action The International Consortium of Investigative
Journalists spent a year reporting on a
massive cache of 11.5 million leaked records
Leaking
known as the Panama Papers.
What’s Next
We expect to see more coordinated leaking efforts in the year ahead. In 2017,
governments, banks, and corporations will be targeted. Organizations should de-
velop risk management plans in advance; meanwhile, journalists should develop
collaborative partnerships and workflows ahead of the next leak. We also see an
opportunity for data journalists and for those with specialized skill sets, adept at
organizing and parsing structured data. Their particular talents will be in greater
demand in the years ahead.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Will bots have their day in court in 2017?
Examples
The Random Darknet Shopper was an art project and automated shopping bot.
It was programmed to spend $100 in bitcoin every week on a random purchase
within a specific online marketplace. However, in 2015 it bought 10 ecstasy pills
and a falsified Hungarian passport. Meantime, in March 2016, Microsoft’s Tay.
ai bot went on an anti-Semitic, homophobic, racist rampage. The bot was de-
commissioned within 24 hours, but screenshots of its automatically-generated
tweets are all over the internet. Legal scholars are already starting to study the
free speech of bots, and how the First Amendment applies to them. Is the speech
of a bot protected? If not, who’s libel? The bot? The bot’s well-meaning develop-
er? The brand?
What’s Next
The problem isn’t just limited to the U.S. In 2015, a bot programmed by Am-
sterdam-based Jeffrey van der Groot autonomously wrote and tweeted a death
threat, which resulted in Dutch police having to figure out whether or not a crim-
inal charge was even possible. In 2017, we will see more internet trolling, social
media bullying, bias in code, chatbots that act with autonomy, and AI agents, and
as a result we anticipate legal challenges worldwide in the next few years.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action IMAGE: Emily — can you find something that
looks like data?
CUTLINE: Synthetic data sets could help
Key Insight is working on datasets that can be shared by researchers all over the world. There
are applications for synthetic data sets across numerous fields, from bioinformat-
In the wake of privacy scandals, researchers are starting to experiment with syn-
ics to macroeconomics to international relations to data-driven newsgathering.
thetic data sets to perform meaningful analyses. This would increase the value of
datasets that everyone uses—such as the Census—while protecting their confi- Watchlist
dentiality.
DataONE; U.S. Census; Purdue University; Duke University; University of New
Examples Mexico; U.S. Geological Survey; ESA Data Registry; Knowledge Network for Bio-
complexity; SANParks Data Repository; U.S. National Science Foundation
A number of agencies collect detailed information for the purpose of generat-
ing statistical models. For example, the U.S. Census Bureau gathers a wealth
of information, such as age, gender and income. It also collects similar data on
businesses, including annual payroll and employment. While this information is
vitally important to researchers, allowing everyone access to it presents a priva-
cy challenge. For example, programmers need data sets to create and test new
algorithms. But the numbers matter—so creating a statistically identical set of
1000 people without divulging their exact details has been a difficult task. Dur-
ing the past few years, a number of new approaches have been tried, including
the experimental Synthetic Longitudinal Business Database (SynLBD) from the
Census Bureau.
What’s Next
Even synthetic data still needs to be verified. While some researchers argue that
synthetic datasets aren’t useful beyond testing algorithms and computer mod-
els, we think that increased privacy concerns will lead to the creation and use of
more sets like the SynLBD. The Data Observation Network for Earth (DataONE)
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Project Malestrom is a web browser built on
torrent technology.
Torrents
Second year on the list
Examples
People use torrents for all kinds of reasons, from blocking an ISP’s ability to see
your location on the network to sharing large files. BitTorrent makes it easier to
distribute those large files without eating up lots of bandwidth.
What’s Next
In 2016, BitTorrent launched BitTorrent Now, a video streaming service and news
platform. Torrents themselves have applications beyond peer-to-peer file sharing.
Think of torrents as a new kind of Internet that’s hosted in the crowd rather than
the cloud. In 2015, BitTorrent released a public beta of Project Maelstrom, a web
browser built on the same underlying technology. Some argue that a distributed
browser system could prevent an ISP from throttling certain sites or users. Mael-
strom also allows content to be published that doesn’t actually live on a server—
rather, your browser would connect to others online who are also viewing the site
or who have viewed it recently. This could thwart would be denial-of-service at-
tacks, which can take down a server. Torrent sites would be distributed between
hundreds of thousands of browsers. Though what if that content was meant to
harass someone instead? Or if it was incorrect? Or if a virus was embedded? It’s
fascinating to think of the future, alternate Internet.
Mixed Reality
Fourth year on the list
Key Insight 90s favorite Pokemon made a comeback in the form of a mobile AR app called
Pokemon Go. It’s massive popularity is catalyzing renewed interested in mobile
Mixed Reality (MR) combines the physical and digital realms and encompasses
AR integrations. Meanwhile, in the fall of 2016 Snapchat announced Spectacles,
a number of technologies: augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), 360-de-
and while comparisons to Google’s failed AR Glass headset are easy to make,
gree video and holograms.
we urge you to resist the analogy. Snapchat’s glasses are primarily for shoot-
ing video, but they necessarily include a personal dashboard, with AR included.
What You Need To Know About MR Meantime, Magic Leap, which continues to raise investment funding, launched its
AR, VR, 360-degree video and holograms aren’t new. But in the year ahead, we’ll developers platform—and it will be using a new kind of lightfield chip. Magic Leap
see more devices being made available to consumers at affordable prices—and projects light directly into the user’s eye instead, which makes it seem as though
we’ll see a number of new content providers building out stories and experienc- digital objects exist in the real world.
es for each platform.
Cinematic VR Latency
VR created with video and images from the real world. (The alternative is com- Sometimes, the system isn’t capable of showing the images in exact synchroni-
puter-generated graphics.) zation with the user. When that happens, a user moves her head, but the images
she’s seeing lag behind a few fractions of a second. This lag is a reason why
Eye tracking some people experience “simulation sickness.”
A system that can read the position of the user’s eyes while using VR. Eye track-
ing software allows a user to aim correctly with her head while in a simulation. Presence
When a user feels as though she’s fully immersed within a simulation, like she’s
Field of view (FoV) actually there, she’s achieved “presence.”
What a user can see in her visual field while in a simulation. The viewing angle
for an average, healthy human eye is about 200 degrees, so a field of view close Refresh rate
to or greater than that is optimal, because it creates a true sense of being within How quickly the images are updated. Higher refresh rates cut down on latency
an environment. and provide a more realistic simulation. Ideal refresh rates are above 60 frames
per second.
Haptics
In addition to a VR headset, hand-held controllers are often used. Some are Room scale
equipped with haptic feedback, which gives the user the sensation of touching This is the tethered version of VR that offers users the capability of walking
something in the simulated environment or receiving touch-back reactions. around a room and interacting with virtual items, as they walk around in the
physical world. So if you take a step in the real world, you’re also taking a step
Head mounted display (HMD) in the virtual simulation. For this to work, rooms need to be mapped in advance.
This is the headset you’ve seen people wearing. It typically includes a strap both
around and over the head, which secures the screen to your face. Some HMDs Social VR
include built-in headphones as well as sensors for head tracking. When two or more people are wired in to a VR simulation and able to share the
experience by observing each other, interacting or participating in joint activi-
Head tracking ties.
Some HMDs are equipped with special sensors that track the exact movements
of the user’s head. The sensors then send feedback to the system, which moves Stitching
the images and audio a user experiences in her field of vision in real-time. The process of combining video from different cameras into one, spherical vid-
eo suitable for VR. This typically requires a tremendous amount of editing to fill
In-ear monitors (IEM) in gaps, reorient scenes and seamlessly meld video streams so that the simula-
These are earbuds that work with head mounted displays that don’t offer built- tion looks authentic.
in headphones.
VR face
When a user has been in a simulation, a few things happen: the head mount-
ed display tends to leave a temporary imprint on the skin, not unlike a pair of
swimming goggles. Users also tend to relax into a slack-jawed look, with their
mouths slightly agape.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action In 2016, Apple and the FBI fought over
backdoors.
Security
Fourth year on the list
Security cont.
leave ordinary people vulnerable to everyday attacks by even unskilled hackers. It 072 Darknets
turned out that by May 2016, law enforcement had gotten into the phone, with-
out Apple’s help. While the case is officially settled, the issue isn’t going away— Many people confuse the deep web—hidden parts of the Internet that aren’t usu-
expect to hear more about backdoors and golden keys in the coming year. ally indexed by search engines—with darknets, which are niche spaces promising
anonymity often for illegal activities. There were ongoing, international pre-emp-
tive strikes against darknet operations in 2015 and 2016. In the coming year, we’ll
071 Glitches see additional layers of protection for those wanting to access darknets, while
Glitches are problems that don’t have an immediate, obvious cause but nonethe- law enforcement will receive training on how to navigate the dark web. For gov-
less can cause frustrating problems. In 2013, technical glitches caused a three- ernment and law enforcement, the challenge of training is that it is static. Those
hour stop at the Nasdaq. In 2016, a glitch grounded the entire Southwest Airlines accessing darknets are typically also the ones building them.
fleet, and it took several days for the airline to get back on schedule. Technical
glitches halted trading at the New York Stock Exchange recently. Glitches cause 073 Open Source App Vulnerabilities
temporary outages—and big headaches—for streaming providers such as Dish’s
Sling TV, which interrupted service during the premiere of Walking Dead spinoff In recent years, we have seen some devastating breaches in open-source pro-
Fear the Walking Dead. Glitches at Netflix have caused outages as well as strange jects: Heartbleed and Shellshock. Hackers exploited vulnerabilities that had exist-
mashup summaries for different films. A favorite: “Inspired by Victor Hugo’s nov- ed for a long time but had been left unchecked and full of bugs. In the aftermath
el, this Disney film follows a gentle, crippled bell ringer as he faces prejudice and of Heartbleed, Dell, Google and other companies donated funds to help shore
tries to save the eyes of individual dinosaurs.” In many cases, glitches have to do up OpenSLL. The Linux Foundation launched a Core Infrastructure Initiative to
with degraded network connectivity or a miscalculation of the bandwidth need- help stave off the next wave of attacks. Still, many organizations use open source
ed. But a lot of times, glitches have to do with newer technologies, which we are tools, and in 2017 they must perform weekly–not occasional–security checks.
learning break in unexpected ways.
074 Selfie Security
In 2011, the Future Today Institute forecasted that within five years, we would
see the advent of two or three-factor authentication using a combination of bi-
ometrics and gestures instead of passwords. Our timing was correct: in an effort
to combat weak passwords (and weak password encryption), some companies
Security cont.
will be using two-factor sign-ons that sidestep passwords entirely. Apple was in our homes and offices (climate controls, locks) and more. Security expert Bri-
recently granted a patent for “low threshold face recognition,” which would help an Krebs says that the “market for finding, stockpiling and hoarding (keeping
our phone cameras identify us, even if we’ve just dyed our hair blue. MasterCard secret) software flaws is expanding rapidly” and went so far as to advocate for a
is using with selfie-scans: at the checkout, users have to hold up their phones to compulsory bounty program. In response, a number of white hat (good hacker)
take a photo. Since launching its fingerprint scanning tools in 2013, Apple has bug bounty programs are becoming popular. HackerOne is being used by Slack,
had success with biometric security—and little customer protest. So MasterCard Twitter, Square and MailChimp. Friendly hackers hunt down potential vulnerabil-
is following suit, using a combination of fingerprint scans and our faces, as a ities and get paid for their work.
two-factor biometric authentication. We expect to see more companies moving
away from standard passwords in the coming year. But it does raise an interesting 076 Automated Hacking
question about the security of biometric databases. It’s easy to change your pass-
Thanks to advancements in AI, one of the big trends in security is automated
word if you get hacked. How would you replace your face, eyes or fingerprints?
hacking—in short, software that’s built to out-hack the human hackers. The Pen-
tagon’s research agency DARPA launched a Cyber Grand Challenge project in
075 Prize Hacks 2016, with a mission to design computer systems capable of beating hackers at
their own game. While it can take several months or even years for humans to
The past two years have been dramatically successful for hackers. 2017 will bring
spot malicious code or vulnerabilities, DARPA hopes that smarter automated sys-
an onslaught of new technologies (and their payment systems)—not to mention
tems can reduce the response time—and fix—to just a few seconds.
new geopolitical and corporate realities. The governments in the U.K. and U.S.
will be transitioning power just as political tension escalates between established
democracies and their would-be detractors. Corporate scandals in 2016—Wells 077 Offensive Government Hacking
Fargo employees creating millions of phony accounts, Volkswagon’s software
In the wake of several hacking attacks against the U.S. government and elected
that misreported data to the Environmental Protection Agency’s emissions
officials in 2016, the Obama administration signaled out Russia as a persistent
trackers—have stoked the ire of many consumers. Cybercriminals tend to be mo-
threat. Some elected officials argued that the two agencies responsible for cy-
tivated by these events. They will target larger, more prestigious prizes: banks,
berwarfare—the U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency—will
corporations, governments, financial institutions, universities, health and medical
likely split and start playing offense, especially as artificial intelligence becomes
records, marketing databases, our taxes. To date, attacks that have made big
a focus for U.S. cyber strategy. Meanwhile, look for a buildup of highly-skilled ex-
headlines have been about hackers taking data—but exploits can also mean infil-
perts joining the effort to meet emerging threats in 2017.
trating the computer systems in our cars, in our infrastructure (airplanes, trains),
Security cont.
Backdoor Cookie
Developers intentionally install backdoors into firmware so that manufacturers A small file sent from your computer’s web browser to a server. Cookies help
can safely upgrade our devices and operating systems. The challenge is that websites recognize you when you return, and they also help third parties track
backdoors can also be used surreptitiously to harness everything from our web- audience.
cams to our personal data.
Cracking
Black hat A basic term that describes breaking into a security system. Anyone “cracking”
A malicious hacker; someone who hacks for personal gain. a system is doing so maliciously.
Bot Crypto
Bots are automated programs that performs a simple task. Some—simple chat- Cryptography (or “crypto”) is the art and science of encrypting data—as well as
bots, for example—are completely harmless. Other bots can be programmed to breaking encryption.
repeatedly guess passwords so that a hacker can break into a website.
Deep web/net and Dark web/ net
Botnet The deep and dark net/web are actually two different things, though they’re
A botnet is a group of computers that are being controlled by a third party, and often conflated. The deep net or deep web is the vast trove of data that isn’t
are being used for any number of nefarious purposes. For example, malware in- indexed by search engines. Spreadsheets, databases and more that are stored
stalled on your computer can run, undetected, in the background while hackers on servers make up this space. The dark web/ net is made up of sites that are in-
use your machine as part of a large spamming network. visible unless you know how to use a special network, such as Tor, which knows
how to find the dark side. Once there, you’ll find what you might expect: pirated
software and content, job ads for hackers, illegal drugs, human trafficking, and
worse.
Lulz PGP
A play on “lol” or “laughing out loud,” black hats often use the term “lulz” to PGP stands for “Pretty Good Privacy,” and you’ve probably seen a lot of PGP
justify malicious work. LulzSec (“lulz security”) is yet another offshoot of Anon- numbers showing up in Twitter and Facebook bios lately. PGP is a basic method
ymous, and it was credited with the massive Sony Pictures hack. of encrypting email (and other data). In oder to receive and read the message,
your intended recipient must use a private key to decode it.
Malware
Any software program that’s been designed to manipulate a system, by stealing Phishing
information, augmenting code or installing a rogue program. Rootkits, keylog- We’ve all seen a phishing attack at least once. They usually come in the form of
gers, spyware and everyday viruses are examples of malware. an email from a trusted contact. Once you open the message or attachment,
your computer, your data and the network you’re on become vulnerable to at-
Man-in-the-middle (MitM) attacks tack.
This occurs when a hacker impersonates a trusted connection in order to steal
data or information or to alter communications between two or more people. Plaintext
This is text without any formatting. In the context of cybersecurity, it also refers
Metadata to text that isn’t encrypted. Sony Pictures storing its passwords and email ad-
This is the data that explains what’s in another set of data, such as a jpeg photo, dresses in a basic Excel spreadsheet is an example of plaintext.
or an email, or a webpage.
Pwned
Password managers South Park fans will remember Cartman using this word. It’s geek speak for
These are third-party tools that you entrust your passwords to. Just remember “dominate.” If you’ve been hacked, you’ve been pwned.
one master password, and use it to unlock a database of all your other pass-
words, which should allow you to use a completely different password for every RAT
site and service you use. While managers are a good idea in theory, many are RATs are Remote Access Tool. If you’ve used a remote login service to access
cloud-based. If a hacker gains access to your password manager, you’re in big your office computer while away from work, you’ve used a RAT. But RATs can
trouble. If you do use one, make sure to use complicated password at least 36 be malicious, too. Just imagine a hacker using a RAT to take over your worksta-
characters long with lots of special characters, numbers and capital letters. tion.
Payload Ransomware
The part of a computer virus that is responsible for the primary action, such as This is malware that allows a hacker to break into your computer or network
destroying data or stealing information. and then take away your access until you pay a specified fee or perform a cer-
tain action.
Root Tor
The root is the central nervous system of a computer or network. It can install The Onion Router, otherwise known as “Tor,” was originally developed by the
new applications, create files, delete user accounts and the like. Anyone with U.S. Naval Research Laboratory to route traffic in random patterns so as to con-
root access has ubiquitous and unfettered access. fuse anyone trying to trace individual users. The Tor Project is the nonprofit now
in charge of maintaining Tor, which is used by both white and black hackers, as
Rootkit well as journalists and security experts.
Rootkits are malware designed for root access. Often undetected, rootkits start
running when you start your computer, and they stay running until you turn Verification
your machine off. Ensuring that data, and its originators, are authentic.
Shodan VPN
In Japan, a “shodan” is considered the first degree (read: lowest level) of mas- Virtual Private Networks, or “VPNs,” use encryption to create a private channel
tery. In cyberspace, Shodan is a search engine for connected devices, allowing for accessing the internet. VPNs are necessary when connecting to public net-
hackers access to baby monitors, medical devices, thermostats and any other works—even those at airports, hotels and coffee shops.
connected device. It’s intended to help people learn how to secure their devic-
es, but obviously it can also be used against them. (see http://shodan.io) Virus
Malware intended to steal, delete or ransom your files. Mimicking the flu, this
Sniffing type of malware spreads like a virus.
When you were a kid, if you drove around your neighborhood looking for open
WiFi networks, you probably used a little device or a special computer pro- White hat
gram. Those are examples of sniffers, which are designed to find signals and Not all hackers are bad. White hats work on highlighting vulnerabilities and
data without being detected. bugs in order to fix them and protect us.
Spearphishing Worm
A more targeted form of phishing to smaller groups, typically within social net- Worms are a certain kind of invasive malware that spreads like a virus.
works or work environments.
Zero-day exploits
Spoofing In the hacking community, zero days (also written as “0day”) are prized tools
In general, anytime data is changed to mimic a trusted source, it’s being spoofed. because they are undisclosed vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Once the
Changing the “From” section or header of an email to make it look as though flaw is revealed, programmers have zero days to do anything about it.
it was sent by someone else. Black hats spoof emails by impersonating people
you know, and then launch phishing attacks.
Token
A small physical device that allows a trusted, authenticated user to use a ser-
vice. Tokens are stronger than passwords alone, since they require both the
password and the physical device to gain access.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Many people are increasingly concerned about
their digital privacy.
Privacy
Fifth year on the list
Privacy cont.
Privacy cont.
to support criminal investigations.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Organizations should prepare themselves
for hackers posting private staff information
online.
Organizational Doxing
Second year on the list
Key Insight
“Doxing” is mining and publishing personal information about a person—organi-
zational doxing is when this happens to an entire company. It’s a term introduced
by security expert Bruce Schneier.
Examples
In the wake of the Edward Snowden leaks, we’ve seen a number of data dumps.
WikiLeaks has published troves of data. Hackers broke into Hacking Team, pub-
lishing a massive amount of internal data. Sony has been breached, and so have
various branches of the U.S. government.
This isn’t about stealing credit card information, but rather about making public
the personal details of individuals, either to protest against policies, to embarrass
companies or to blackmail companies into paying big ransoms to hackers.
What’s Next
Because of the success hackers had in 2016, we can expect more organizational
doxing in the year ahead. Every organization ought to shore up security and to
develop a risk management plan should they find themselves doxed. We strongly
recommend reading the “Organizational Doxing and Disinformation” blog post
by Bruce Schneier: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2016/09/organiza-
tional_1.html.
Watchlist
Schneier on Security; Anonymous; Russia; China; major news organizations; cor-
porations; government agencies
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action In the coming year, we will continue to
create a surplus of data—and we will have
too few data scientists to manage it all.
Data
Seventh year on the list
Key Insight atives, make smart decisions, collaborate on security and surface insights. One
obstacle: knowing how to find and hire the right kind of data scientist.
Data is a very large trend category with numerous stakeholders, applications and
emerging ideas. There’s a lot to monitor in 2017. “Data scientist” used to be a job that no one wanted, and in 2017 it will be one of
the most sought-after positions. Now, we’re predicting a shortage in Data Scien-
Example tists in 2017 and beyond. There just aren’t enough skilled data scientists to fulfill all
In the coming year, Big Data will continue to be a buzzword and a trend through- the work available—some estimates show a 50% gap between upcoming supply
out many industries and fields. From collecting it to parsing it and making it eas- and demand. Industries including pharmaceuticals, finance, insurance, aerospace,
ier to search, we will continue to see lots of developments in 2017. Businesses will foundations, government and travel will see a faster for employees with analytic
want access to analytics tools in order to make important business decisions, skills. Some universities, seeing workforce needs changing, will launch new grad-
while government agencies will rely on data to determine funding for various uate programs and centers in data science. Ethics and diversity will hopefully be
programs. Consumers have become more aware how much personal data they’re a mandatory part of those programs, so that our future data scientists are aware
creating—and who has access to it. of possible algorithmic discrimination and problematic data training sets.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Estonia’s e-residency program has become
a popular model for other countries around
the world.
E-residents
First year on the list
Example
Estonia, which borders Russia to the east, Latvia to the south and sits across the
Baltic Sea from Finland, has been operating most of its government services on-
line for the past 15 years, from tax filing to contract signing to filling prescriptions
and even voting. With a population of just 1.3 million people, Estonia figured out
early on how to operationalize digital tools to service its citizens. Recently, Estonia
began offering resident status to entrepreneurs—without adding a requirement
that they actually take up residence in the country. As part of this beta program,
e-residents pay 100 euro and apply online at e-resident.gov.ee, and then need to
travel to a local Estonian embassy for an interview. Once approved, e-residents
gain access to a number of services—not to mention an EU company and EU
bank accounts. This generates revenue for the Estonian government while reduc-
ing costs and paperwork for entrepreneurs around the world.
What’s Next
With the Brexit referendum passed, e-residency could provide a smart solution
for UK-based entrepreneurs, who will soon find it difficult to work with EU com-
panies and hire EU citizens. The program has become so popular that Estonia is
now advising other governments, including Lithuania, the Netherlands, Japan
and Singapore, on how to create their own e-residency programs. We anticipate
more countries starting to launch their own e-residency programs in 2017.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Venmo is a popular peer-to-peer (P2P)
payment system.
Social Payments
Seventh year on the list
Examples
In 2016, Facebook added payment and merchant services, right within its con-
sumer app. Uber started offering more than just rides—its seamless payment
gateway now works for food and flower deliveries. Popular peer-to-peer pay-
ment service Venmo is now owned by PayPal. Unlike PayPal, Venmo doesn’t
charge transaction fees. It allows friends to pay each other or to easily split bills.
When you make a payment to a friend, you can tag it with whatever you’d like.
Which has made Venmo’s social feed become a popular network itself. Just like a
Facebook feed, Venmo shows photos of friends and what they’ve been spending
their money on. Venmo is the fastest-growing mobile payment system around.
What’s Next
Right now, social payments have primarily been about splitting taxi fares or din-
ner bills. Fastacash is a fintech startup that allows peer-to-peer payments via
platforms we already use. This kind of backend technology will soon allow Snap-
chat, Line, WeChat and others to facilitate easy payments pose a threat to tra-
ditional payment processors, who earn revenue through fees. In 2017, we expect
to see deeper third-party integrations with P2P APIs to allow us not just to pay
each other, but to pay our bills, make charitable donations and potentially shop
in virtual marketplaces. That said, social payment networks are probable targets
for hackers.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action =Some are calling the blockchain the future
“Internet of Trust.”
Bitcoin + Blockchain
Fourth year on the list
Key Insight intermediaries in most transactions, even those outside of finance. In June 2016,
the International Monetary Fund called blockchain the future “Internet of Trust,”
Bitcoin is a digital currency, and it promises complete anonymity while using a
but also warned that setting standards now is imperative: “It is typical of a new
crowd-regulated public ledger system. The blockchain is a public ledger of trans-
innovation cycle that different companies come up with different ways to do
actions.
something, leading to a patchwork of technological approaches...this could undo
years of effort to integrate the financial industry globally.” We expect 2017 to be
Examples a year of acceleration for the blockchain and associated technology.
Bitcoins are mined using powerful computers and scripts, but it’s a competitive
process. While bitcoin isn’t the only digital currency, and its volatility rules it out Watchlist
as a safe long-term investment, we are now seeing bitcoin being used by more
BTC; Kraken; BTCC; ABRA; XAPO; CITI; ING; HSBC; RBS; Bank of America; UBS;
businesses worldwide. In this digital currency system, bitcoin is the protocol par-
Ripple; Peercoin; Coinbase; Coindesk; Boost VC; Greylock Partners; Robocoin;
ticipating on the blockchain public ledger—and it’s that platform that we find
Coinsetter; SecondMarket; Digital Asset Holdings; BTCS
more promising. Blockchain is the transaction database that’s shared by every-
one participating in bitcoin’s digital system.
What’s Next
Virtually everyone agrees that bitcoins probably aren’t the blockchain’s killer app.
The blockchain is a sort of distributed consensus system, where no one person
controls all the data. Some say that the blockchain will soon herald a new kind
of Internet. The cryptography team at Blockstream recently launched its first
prototype “sidechain,” which functions as a separate ledger with its own code.
Sidechains allow for easier authentication. Blockstream and the sidechain pro-
jects that follow will turn the blockchain into a universal platform that can be
used for anything requiring signatures or authentication. It will therefore enable
people to participate in “trustless” transactions, eliminating the need for an inter-
mediary between buyers and sellers. But it potentially eliminates the need for all
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Ikea offers a VR marketing experience.
VR Marketing
First year on the list
Key Insight
Emerging research suggests that virtual reality storytelling, when it’s done well, Watchlist
rewires all of us—we are likely to develop new belief biases as a result. Marketers
will have big new opportunities in 2017 to use VR to influence consumers. Reverge VR; BBH; Goodby Silverstein & Partners; VirtualSKY; Leo Burnett; BBDO;
Facebook; Droga5; Ogilvy & Mather; Razorfish; Weiden+Kennedy; Circos VR; GS-
Examples D&M; VML; Critical Mass; Three One Zero; Valve; Wevr; Alphabet (Google); Leap
Motion; Innerspace VR; StartVR; Epic Games; Survios
For more than a decade, scientists have been studying “virtual reality expo-
sure therapy,” which has been used extensively to treat veterans suffering from
post-traumatic stress syndrome. Because VR is completely immersive, it can
closely simulate nearly any scenario. Patients, guided by trained therapists, are
embedded into VR stories that represent a trauma they’ve experienced. Over
time, this therapy results in new neuropathways—beliefs, attitudes and reactions
are changed, for better or for worse. This presents an interesting opportunity for
marketers.
What’s Next
Both BMW and Volvo have created apps allowing would-be buyers to test drive
one of their cars. But unlike the usual test drive with a nagging salesperson
trying to convince you to buy the upgraded sport mode package, you instead
interact with the vehicle on gorgeous open roads, in the best possible weather,
all by yourself. Spend enough time with the apps, and your belief bias will shove
your logical mind into the back seat. You might start to think that inside one of
those cars, every day is a traffic free holiday where you have the driving skills of
Formula One superstar Lewis Hamilton. This, of course, highlights an impend-
ing ethical challenge. As VR headsets come to market in 2017, brands will have
a unique opportunity to tap directly into our minds, persuading us through im-
mersive storytelling.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Do you suffer from FOBO?
FOBO
First year on the list
Key Insight
If you’re the kind of person who feels uneasy when your phone runs out of bat-
tery or when you can’t get a decent WiFi signal, you’re suffering from FOBO, or
the “fear of being offline.”
Examples
Professional psychological associations around the world, from the U.S. to Aus-
tralia, are now encouraging their members to consider FOBO as a source of anx-
iety for both young people and adults. While social media addiction is not yet
recognized with a diagnostic medical code, emerging research shows that social
media—and FOBO—have created new neural pathways causing us to feel varying
levels of anxiety when we’re prevented from checking social media. The conten-
tious, vitriolic presidential election caused our collective FOBO to spike during
the summer, fall and winter of 2016, as we waited to see not just what the candi-
dates would do and say next—but how our friends would respond.
What’s Next
Psychologists and mental health professionals warn that our FOBO and suscep-
tibility to digital distraction isn’t going away anytime soon. This is good news for
anyone in marketing—we are a captive audience, growing weaker by the day. In
2017, both marketers and consumers should think about how our current addic-
tion will affect our ability to unplug in the longer-term.
Watchlist
Social networking sites; mobile device manufacturers
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Walgreens is one retailer now offering a
suite of APIs.
Retail APIs
First year on the list
Key Insight
Retailers are making their data available to developers in the form of APIs in order
to provide consumers and partners a host of new services.
Examples
Application programming interfaces, or APIs, are tools for building software ap-
plications. Retailers are using APIs to help customers and partners discover them
more easily online, learn about products and services and to interact with the
customer even when she’s not shopping. Home furnishings retailer Wayfair has
released an API so that developers can build a 3D library—the goal is to help the
company’s expansion into virtual and augmented realty. In October 2016, Mas-
tercard debuted a developer platform with 25 APIs to make it easier for startups
and developers to integrate its payment services. Through its API program, Wal-
greens works with more than 275 partners.
What’s Next
We anticipate many more retailers building up their API offerings in 2017. Retail-
ers need to expand their reach beyond brick and mortar stores, and also beyond
the traditional e-commerce site.
Watchlist
CVS; Walgreens; Mastercard; Wayfair; Zendesk; MuelSoft; Walmart; Hershey’s;
Amazon; Lowes; Home Depot
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action The MemoryMirror assist shoppers just as a
sales associate would.
Digital Associates
First year on the list
Key Insight
Whether augmented reality mirrors or roaming robot salespeople, a new fleet of
digital associates will help consumers shop in 2017.
Examples
New smart mirrors are helping shoppers in the fitting room—suggesting which
colors match a pair of pants, how to accessorize outfits and even showing alter-
nate colors and patterns of an item being tried on. Nordstrom, Top Shop and
Nieman Marcus have piloted the technology so far. Meanwhile in Japan, Soft-
Bank’s Pepper robot has been taking orders at Pizza Hut.
What’s Next
Don’t expect these digital assistants to completely supplant the human sales-
force in 2017. That being said, any digital tool that makes the in-person shopping
experience easier and more enjoyable for consumers is likely to court investment,
not to mention brand loyalists.
Watchlist
MasterCard; SoftBank; IBM; Lowes; Keonn; Oak Labs; eBay Enterprise; Memory-
Mirror
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Drones like these are now available to anyone.
Drones
Fifth year on the list
Key Insight be regulated for hobbyists and commercial drone pilots, which will prompt dif-
ficult conversations between technologists, researchers, drone manufacturers,
You’ve probably seen at least one in the wild. Drones are now available in an
businesses and the aviation industry, since each has an economic stake in the
array of sizes and form factors, from lightweight planes and coptors to tiny, ma-
future of unmanned vehicles. We anticipate the sky being divided soon: hobbyist
chines no bigger (or louder) than a hummingbird. Soon, they’ll include powerful
pilots will have access to operate UMVs in the 200 and below space, while busi-
sense and avoid technology, and the ability to fly on their own.
nesses and commercial pilots will gain exclusive access to 200 - 400 feet zone
overhead.
102 Sense And Avoid Technology
Robots harnessing neural networks and artificial intelligence can make inferences 104 Clandestine, Disappearing Drones
and decisions when programmed to do so. That’s because of sense and avoid
In 2016, DARPA funded new research in drones capable of making deliveries—and
technology. In 2017, drones will be programmed to navigate along the path of
then disappearing into thin air. The agency’s Vanishing Programmable Resourc-
GPS waypoints—and they’ll make decisions midair about the best path to take
es (VAPR) program has already shown that it’s possible to program a small chip
and when to avoid objects like buildings, trees and mountains. Or other drones,
to shatter on command. What’s coming in 2017 is sort of like Snapchat for drones.
for that matter.
Drones cont.
106 Microdrones
Microdrones will autonomously navigate through tiny spaces to investigate col-
lapsed buildings or areas with hazardous materials. In October 2016, the U.S. What’s coming
next is sort of
Army asked for bids to supply short-range microdrones, capable of reconnais-
sance and still small enough to fit in a soldier’s uniform pocket. In 2017, these
small robots will likely be built and tested for widespread use.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action The Internet of Things will continue to grow
in 2017.
Internet of Things
Fifth year on the list
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Frames from a moving camera recorded by
the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in
Zurich, Switzerland, show how UW technology
Intelligent Cameras
distinguishes among people by giving each
person a unique color and number, then tracking
them as they walk.
Third year on the list
What’s Next
We will continue to see this experimental technology taking shape in 2017. In
addition to recognizing our faces, similar technology can be used to measure
us in infrared—using heat to visualize us in the night. Recognition algorithms will
do more than spot people, they’ll be capable of distinguishing between animals,
objects and sudden movements, too.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Uber’s fleet of self-driving cars will start to
transport us in 2017.
Cars
First year on the list
Cars cont.
Trend or Trendy?
We’ll leave these two for you to decide.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action In WarGames, Matthew Broderick played
a hacker who brought the U.S. and former
Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war.
Key Insight
Technology is now moving faster than government’s ability to legislate it. As a What’s Next
result, countries around the world are learning the hard way what happens when
old laws clash with new technology. In a democracy, new policies and laws require discussion, debate and various
parts of a government to collaborate. It’s a slow process by design. Both the
Examples Trump Administration and our newly-elected officials will need to reconcile pro-
cess with progress in 2017 and beyond, as they evaluate existing policies and
In the U.S., the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) was enacted shortly af-
determine how technology should be regulated. Without meaningful discussion
ter lawmakers showed a clip of the 1984 movie WarGames during testimony—it
about the long-range implications of legislation, lawmakers could cause drastic
was an iconic scene about the brink of nuclear war with Matthew Broderick, as a
(if untended) consequences for their constituents in the decades to come.
teenage hacker. The CFAA’s broad language makes it illegal to break a website’s
terms of service (TOS). But these days, most of us break the TOS of the services Watchlist
we use without even realizing it. Every time that coworker Facebooks an inspi-
rational message she found online, she’s technically breaking the law. The CFAA Government agencies; business leaders; legal scholars; law enforcement; technol-
was used to threaten the late internet activist Aaron Swartz with 35 years in ogy and privacy advocates; media organizations; everyday citizens
prison for allegedly stealing a trove of academic papers with the intent of making
them available freely to the public. Meanwhile, there are a host of technologies for
which we have questions but no answers—can law enforcement use the Fourth
Amendment to compel a company to jailbreak a device? Does the Fifth Amend-
ment mean that sources of personal data, such as fitness trackers, can’t be used
to self-incriminate someone in court? Does the Thirteenth Amendment extend
to sentient, artificially intelligent agents?
Digital Caliphate
First year on the list
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Tashfeen Malik and Syed Farook killed 14
people and seriously injured 22 in a terrorist
attack in San Bernardino, California.
Key Insight
The strength of terrorism groups has much to do with their mastery of digital
tools and social media. Now, government agencies are asking for their help in
fighting back.
Examples
In 2016, the White House met with the leaders of large technologies asking them
to help “disrupt” ISIS’s online presence and activities. Some of the ideas being
discussed both within the U.S. and other governments include loosening encryp-
tion, and filtering and censoring content, and making it easier for law enforce-
ment to gain access to the devices and accounts of accused terrorists.
What’s Next
Technology companies will find themselves in many more conversations about
the spread of terrorism via their tools and networks. In 2017, they will likely be
asked to have new conversations with the Trump Administration. But the ques-
tions—and answers—are complicated. Better to think through policy and proce-
dure in advance, so that decisions don’t have to be made under duress.
Watchlist
Government agencies; technology company leaders; legal scholars; law enforce-
ment; technology and privacy advocates; media organizations; everyday citizens
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Cincinnati Zoo officials killed a gorilla named
Harambe to protect a child in 2017.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action A worker loads an 8-inch floppy disk into
her terminal.
What’s Next
The problem isn’t just about legacy systems. The Trump Administration and our
newly-appointed government officials will need to prioritize tech infrastructure in
upcoming budget planning and funding proposals in order to keep pace with the
changing nature of technology. Government IT professionals will need to spend
additional time and money shoring up existing systems as they continually review
new tools, like Slack, smart TVs and wearable devices, all of which could become
sources of vulnerabilities.
Established by Article II, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution, the Cabinet is tasked Secretary for Transportation
with advising the President on a number of subjects, from transportation to The next four years will be pivotal for the auto manufacturing industry and for
defense. The Cabinet includes the Vice President, the Attorney General, and autonomous vehicles. Collaboration between industry and government will be
the leaders of our 15 executive departments—the Secretaries of Agriculture, essential as this technology moves from the fringe towards the mainstream.
Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Home-
land Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Trans- Secretary of Energy
portation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs. America is now the largest exporter of energy, and has caused economic insta-
bility of other countries around the world. Climate change is upon us. The DoE
As artificial intelligence, robotics and genomics move away from the fringe will have to spend the next several years negotiating energy consumption and
and to the mainstream, some of our cabinet members will play a bigger role pollution with other countries.
in advising our newly-elected President and the people chosen to lead each
department. Here’s who will matter most—at least when it comes to technol- Secretary of Education
ogy—in 2017. There are a number of new challenges facing schools, from a growing digital
divide, to adaptive learning. How to manage standardized testing, and how to
Secretary of State set national standards, will be influenced by technology in the years ahead.
From digital diplomacy, to multinational standards on genomics, to bots and
beyond, the Secretary of State will need to have a firm grasp on the frontiers
of emerging technologies. This position will require technical savvy and the
PROPOSAL: WE NEED A DEPARTMENT OF THE FUTURE
ability to draw upon well-informed outside experts who aren’t motivated by
politics. Years ago, the now-shuttered Office of Technology Assessment was charged
with researching, forecasting and advising Congress on matters of emerging
Secretary of Defense technology. During its existence, the OTA released more than 750 prescient
The near-future of warfare will require collaboration between the hacking studies ranging from robots in the workplace, to bioterrorism, to acid rain
community, roboticists, those at the FCC managing the spectrum, AI re- and climate change. We are building and deploying new technologies at an
searchers and data managers. unprecedented rate. For the first time in our country’s history, advancements
in science and technology have outpaced our lawmakers’ ability to respond
Secretary of Agriculture
in a measured, responsible way.
Some of the most promising new technology involves edited seeds, which
will not only impact U.S. farmers and big agricultural companies, but those During the 2016 election cycle, candidates talked only about technology as it
abroad as well. In the next few years, governments will need to develop norms relates to jobs, the economy and better access to government services. That
and protocols for how this technology is used. addresses our current problems, not our future ones. It is time for a Depart-
ment of the Future and a Secretary of the Future, who would advise the next
Secretary of Health and Human Services
President on the social, economic and geopolitical implications of emerg-
Soon, AI will start to disrupt our workforce, and during that transition, many
ing science and technology—as those implications relate to all other depart-
people will find themselves out of a job. This will require HHS to retool its
ments, agencies and offices within the government. Such an office would co-
public assistance programs—as well as to develop a strategy for how to lev-
ordinate research, lead scenario mapping and long-range planning.
erage the highly-skilled workers who are too young to retire.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Minneapolis City Hall will continue to build
its local cybersecurity operations in 2017.
With more local government services moving online, cities and towns will need to
hire qualified cybersecurity managers.
Examples
Cities with high-profile residents like Minneapolis (home to many Fortune 500
companies, including Target), New York City (home to celebrities and financi-
ers), Arlington (the Pentagon) have been actively seeing cybersecurity experts
to fill new positions. We expect this trend to continue, especially as civil tensions
increase. This represents a fundamental change in our behavior, with cities and
city infrastructure likely targets in 2017.
What’s Next
There is a significant talent shortage—those who have the right skills set and ex-
perience tend to take much higher-paying jobs in the private sector. As a result,
cities will need to carve out enough budget to pay for staff. And they’ll need to do
it quickly: cybercrime won’t wait for local city and town budgets to pass.
Watchlist
Local city and town agencies; local business leaders; local universities and col-
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Melbourne, Australia is investing in a host of
smart cities technologies.
Examples
In 2016, 78 cities applied for the Department of Transportation’s “Smart City”
challenge, which would award them $40 million in federal grant money to up-
grade their urban transit systems. DoT selected Columbus, Ohio, as the winner for
its proposal to deploy self-driving electric shuttles, launch smart cards to provide
free car-sharing services, and develop a connected traffic light system to reduce
traffic jams throughout the city. The City of Melbourne (Australia) has launched
a Smart City Office, which includes open data projects, a 24-hour pedestrian
counting system and city-wide free public WiFi. IBM’s Smarter City Challenge is
providing select cities access to Watson APIs and pro bono consulting services.
What’s Next
Smart Cities are attractive to businesses, startup communities and young people
looking for a permanent place to call home. We anticipate more competitions
and grants to be made available in the years to come—as well as new public-pri-
vate partnerships.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action The CRISPR editing process.
Genomic Editing
Second year on the list
126 Molecular Programming stick on to your head—and a mobile app synching you to your smartphone. It
delivers low-grade electric pulses to influence either your sympathetic (fight or
In 2017, researchers will be working on building programmable devices out of flight) or your parasympathetic (rest and digest) nervous system. Rather than
our DNA, RNA and proteins. These molecular programs would allow doctors to waiting to get home and unwind with a glass of wine after work, you could
“talk” to our cells in order to diagnose complex diseases, or to test new thera- instead program your headband to kick on during your commute home and
peutic treatments. A team at Harvard University’s Wyss Institute is researching arrive pre-relaxed.
this fantastical-sounding technology for its practical uses, like curing cancer.
129 Synthetic Biology
127 Nanobot Treatments
Synthetic biology is a emerging field that builds new life: replacement organs
Tiny robots capable of delivering medicine to only a specific area of the body, and soft tissue, as well as entirely new kinds of organisms never before seen on
or assisting with micro-surgery, are on the horizon. Researchers at the Univer- Earth. Synthetic biologists at Ginkgo Bioworks unveiled a bio factory in the fall
sity of California San Diego proved in 2015 that a nanobot, propelled by gas of 2016, and it will be creating new lifeforms in the coming year. So far, it has
bubbles, successfully delivered medicine inside of a live mouse without causing created brewer’s yeast with genes from an orange tree—but it’s planning on
injury. This technology will eventually make its way into us, too, as research con- creating new kinds of pesticides and laundry detergent, too. The University of
tinues in 2017. British Columbia-Okanagan is developing realistic human hearts that can be
used for surgical trainees. Meanwhile, researchers from around the world are
hoping to build a functional human genome from base pairs by the year 2026.
128 Neuroenhancers
In the coming year, a number of computer devices meant to augment our bi- 130 Running Out Of Space For Genome Storage
ology will be made available to the public. Some promise to help you become
more productive, while others are meant to boost your mood. The Emotiv By 2025, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign esti-
Epoc+ and Emotiv Insight and mobile EEG devices monitor your brain activity mate that we may be out of data storage space for human genomes. As preci-
and analyzes cognitive performance. Doppel, which is worn on the wrist, uses sion medicine, CRISPR and gene therapy technologies continue to advance and
electric pulses to augment your energy. The pulsations, which you dial in based improve, our storage needs will explode along with the computing power and
on your needs, are supposed to have a similar effect on your brain as music requirements for acquiring, distributing, analyzing, encrypting and safeguarding
does. The Thync Kit is a series of electrodes and a triangular device that you our genomics data.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action This Lexus concept car uses a driver’s
biometric data to glow every time the
driver’s heart beats.
Biointerfaces
Fourth year on the list
What’s Next
Biointerface and gestural interfaces aren’t intended to compete with touchscreen
environments, but are instead meant to help us communicate and operate our
devices in new ways. The next iteration of gestures is to combine them with more
sophisticated technologies. We expect to see more wearable interfaces—with
smartphone touchscreens as remote controls—in the coming year. We’ll also see
new interfaces in cars, which will allow drivers to use gesture to control the dash-
board and will use in-seat sensors to determine whether a driver is falling asleep.
Lexus recently released a concept car video showing how cars might recognize
and react to our emotions. For many designers, the next evolution in tangible
interfaces remains the ability to make traditional interfaces disappear entirely,
instead allowing us to make small gestures and use our voices to control the ma-
chines in our lives.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action IBM Watson and Marchesa co-designed a
connected dress for the 2016 Met Gala.
Wearables
Fifth year on the list
Key Insight will be ready for meaningful content delivery in 2017. Instead, look for more ro-
bust lifestyle, fitness and entertainment applications.
As of December 2016, the Future Today Institute is tracking 462 wearable devic-
es, in various stages of development—from fringe experimentation to mass-mar-
ket sales. More than half are dedicated to fitness or biometrics, while others are 135 Wireless Body Area Networks
intended for gaming, work and medical monitoring.
Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs) communicate information from your
As of now, nearly all wearables require a smartphone or computer to see and wearable devices back to medical servers, app manufacturers and your home
report data, adjust settings and archive information. Those coming to market computer. Sensors, such as devices to monitor your heart rate or oxygen level,
in 2017 will continue to service our fitness and lifestyle needs with our mobile collect data and send it back to a central hub (most often, your smartphone)
phones as a hub. Still, there are several trends to consider in this space: which then relays the information to a medical team or health care monitoring
service. There are a lot of benefits: rather than moving into an assisted living
133 Head Mounted Displays facility or spending a lot of time in the hospital, patients can instead move back
home while being provided with virtual care. While some of the established
Virtual reality headsets are wearable devices. What’s next: they will soon collect medical devices use strong encryption algorithms, many new wearable devices
your biometric data and other personal information in order to provide added don’t. They’re sending a lot of unencrypted, unsecured personal data – including
functionality. The HTC Vive tracks your movement, while controller sticks send our locations – across the Internet. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security
haptic signals to your brain as you work your way through simulated environ- has been investigating several cybersecurity cases related to WBANs, and we
ments. anticipate WBAN security growing as a trend in the coming year.
Wearables cont.
Navigate Paris is a location-enabled jacket, which helps the wearer get around 139 Pets
Paris without burying her nose in her smartphone. CuteCircuit makes dresses
that can change colors via smartphone. Biofabricate is growing fabrics in a lab. Is your dog lazy? That’s a question on the minds of some entrepreneurs who are
Near-future projects in the works include drug-releasing medical textiles and designing wearables for pets. The WonderWoof is a bluetooth-enabled bowtie
fabrics that regulate moisture in our skin. that tracks your dog’s steps and sends the information to your smartphone.
FitBark Tracker monitors a dog’s activities and provides analytics on play and
137 Women sleep. Trackimo and Verve Retrieve are real-time GPS trackers for pets, and
they work both indoors and outside. Expect more features in 2017, like the abil-
There are still relatively few wearables specifically designed with women in ity to schedule a geofence that will send you alerts when your pets wander too
mind. In 2016 we saw some partnerships between popular designers and wear- far away.
able tech companies, and we expect to see more soon. But for women, it isn’t
just about design. Wearables that help track women’s health issues and person-
al safety stand to grab significant market share in the coming year.
138 Kids
We will see more wearables designed for kids in 2017, as developers are creating
wearables for parents who want to monitor their infants and young children.
Several smartwatches, such as the HereO and Kidswatcher allow parents to
track their children’s coordinates, send them messages and make calls to the
device. The iBitz is a pedometer that incentivizes kids by rewarding them with
virtual coins to use in Disney’s Club Penguin. Sproutling collects real-time data
on infants, reporting their body temperature, heart rate, body movements, and
sleep patterns as well as room temperature, humidity, and light.
141 Ingestibles/Implantables
In the coming year, we’ll see several new ingestible and implantable nanobots
and other wireless medical devices that deliver drug therapy, monitor our vital
statistics, stimulate our brains, help manage pain and bladder control and more.
142 Earables
In-ear computers, otherwise known as earables, will be here soon. For example,
Apple recently filed a patent on earbuds that can be used to monitor tempera-
ture, perspiration and heart rate during exercise or sports—those earbuds could
also be used to control electronic devices (like our phones) using head gestures.
The current AirPods don’t offer that much functionality, of course, but we antici-
pate some of these bio-features being added in the next 24-36 months.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Smart Thread can be used in sutures to
heal—and report on—wounds.
Smart Thread
First year on the list
Key Insight
In 2017, you’ll be hearing more about “smart thread,” which doctors can use to
monitor patients after surgery.
Examples
Researchers at Tufts University have embedded nano-scale sensors and elec-
tronics into surgical thread, that can be used for suturing. Think of it as a sort of
temporary, smart system that connects to a smartphone or other medical device
and reports on your glucose levels, diagnoses an infection and alerts hospital
staff if your body is chemically out of balance.
What’s Next
Smart thread is just coming out of experimentation, but initial tests results show
that it can be successfully used as a diagnostic device.
Watchlist
Tufts University; Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology; Har-
vard University’s Wyss Institute
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Alphabet’s Verily Life Sciences is helping to
bring a new branch of health science to the
mainstream.
Bioelectronics
First year on the list
Key Insight
Bioelectronics is a new scientific field in which tiny implantable devices are used
to treat a variety of ailments.
Examples
Alphabet’s Verily Life Sciences is partnering with a number of companies, from
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to 3M, to propel bioelectronics forward. IBM Research is
building micro-machined structures that mimic human cells in saliva, blood and
urine. Already, Verily and UCLA developed a wearable microscope that can be
used to detect certain kinds of cancers.
What’s Next
Just as complex computer networks can be analyzed and fixed by isolating spe-
cific nodes—bioelectrical engineers believe that the human body can be similarly
addressed to stimulate our immune system, slow the progression of disease and
extend human longevity.
Watchlist
Alphabet (Google); Verily Life Sciences; IBM; GSK; 3M; AstraZeneca; University of
California Los Angeles; Novartis.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action The doctor will see you—and your
smartphone—now.
Examples
Because of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Americans have been creating a
trove of patient-generated health data that can be used by researchers. The ACA
requires that doctors and health care providers collect a tremendous amount of
patient data, beyond height, weight, blood pressure and temperature. If patients
contributed all of the other data being collected by their devices—such as their
average daily activity, daily resting pulse rate, number of hours slept, and the
like—health care providers could treat us more holistically. New software from
companies like Validic allow doctors to collect this other data and incorporate it
into their medical records—as long as patients give their consent.
What’s Next
As of December 2016, when the Trend Report was first published, the fate of the
ACA was in question. To comply with the ACA, the health care industry spent
billions of dollars to overhaul the electronic medical records systems it uses. If
the ACA is overturned or significantly altered, that could mean big changes to
the way that health care providers are required to collect, maintain and distribute
your personal health data.
If health care providers continue to collect the same amount of patient data (or
more) as they are required to do today, that would provide artificially intelligent
and cognitive computing systems the data needed to assist doctors with pre-
ventative care and healthy lifestyle plans.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action In the near-future, prosthetics will both
move and communicate the sensation of
touch.
Touch-Sensitive Prosthetics
First year on the list
Key Insight
Researchers are developing new prosthetic limbs that restore not just move-
ment—but touch as well.
Examples
Neuroscientists at the University of Chicago are experimenting with touch-sen-
sitive robotics and rhesus monkeys, whose neural-sensory biology is most similar
to humans. They successfully simulated the sensation of touch by stimulating
certain areas of the brain.
What’s Next
This research lays the groundwork for human testing—in the near-future, similar
technology will be incorporated into prosthetic arms that will transmit the basic
sensation of touch back to the brain.
Watchlist
National Academy of Science; FDA; University of Chicago; Duke University’s
Center for Neuroengineering; University of Southern California; University of
Washington’s Center for Sensorimotor Neural Engineering; Johns Hopkins Uni-
versity; Carnegie Mellon University; Starlab; Case Western Reserve University;
Penn State University; DARPA
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Microsoft researchers are studying image
recognition via deep learning techniques.
Key Insight
Deep learning is being used to help identify food for a number of reasons: to help
computers have more robust conversations with us about what we’re eating, to
calculate the number of calories in a dish, and to spot spoiled or tainted food.
Examples
How many calories are in that salad? Rather than estimating and doing the math
yourself, new computer models will be able to calculate the nutritional value of
your meal before you take your first bite. Deep learning—a branch of artificial in-
telligence—is an approach to building and training a neural network to think more
like we humans do. Researchers at the University of Massachusetts are using
deep learning for computer-assisted dietary assessments, while scientists at Mi-
crosoft have already incorporated their deep learning prototypes for recognizing
popular Asian and Western foods into Bing local search.
What’s Next
This technique can be used to find and sort bad products on food assembly lines,
and it can help growers better identify crop disease. In 2017, research into deep
learning for food recognition will mean a number of opportunities for agricultural
companies, farmers, food manufacturers, restaurants and those watching their
diets.
Watchlist
Microsoft; Prospera; IBM; Alphabet (Google); University of Massachusetts; Apple;
Carnegie Mellon; University of Tokyo; Penn State University; University of Mary-
land; PlantVillage
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Smart Farm technologies could bring dramatic
changes to agricultural business in 2017.
Smart Farms
First year on the list
Key Insight
In order for traditional agriculture to meet the global demand for food, research-
ers are trying to make farming look more like modern manufacturing.
Examples
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization published an alarming report in
2009 stating that by the year 2050, global agricultural production must rise by
70% to meet projected demand. Current farms won’t meet the mark without
getting a little smarter.
What’s Next
A number of new and emerging technologies can be used to power farms with
data and to automate labor. For example, moisture sensors can continuously
monitor the moisture level of soil and communicate with an irrigation system
to increase the water supply. Editing the genomes of seeds can allow them to
flourish, even in unpredictable weather conditions—which are becoming more
frequent. It can also match seeds to specific soil types, to generate an optimal
crop of vegetables. Advancements in agricultural drones will, in the near-future,
assist with planting, harvesting and pest control.
Watchlist
UN Food and Agriculture Organization; USDA; Tyson Foods; Alico Incorporated;
Agria Corporation; Adler Seeds; American Vanguard; Monsanto; Dow Chemical
Company; University of Maryland; Purdue University; Iowa Farm Bureau; OpenAg
Initiative at MIT; DNV GL; Cargill; Alltech; Bernard Matthews Farms; BASF; AVEBE;
Archer Daniels Midland; Marrone Bio Innovations; Syngenta; Honeywell; DuPont
Terraforming
First year on the list
Key Insight
Terraforming is a concept from science fiction—people reform another planet to
make it resemble Earth, so that it can support human life.
Examples
Sci-fi, meet reality. Some people believe that human life is unsustainable in the
far-future, and that humans will need to colonize another planet in order to sur-
vive. In September 2016, Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, delivered his plan to both
get us to Mars and to terraform it once we arrive. It will be several years before
humans pack up and move to space—but NASA has already moved ahead on
several projects to study terraforming the Moon.
What’s Next
The keys to terraforming could be in our current microbes, which are capable of
surviving harsh environments like the Atacama Desert. Of course, we might in-
vent entirely new forms of life using synthetic biology (see Trend 128).
In order to advance terraforming from theory to reality, we’ll need a host of new
robots capable of being trained to mine for resources and build an ecosystem
that can sustain human life. And we’ll need powerful rockets that can power
spacecraft to transport those robots to space so that they can break ground.
Watchlist
NASA; SpaceX
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action This hamburger was grown in a lab.
Key Insight
Say goodbye to tofu imitations of traditional meats. Scientists are getting closer
to culturing meats and grapes that are made up of the same chemical structures,
but were fabricated inside of a lab rather than grown on a farm.
Examples
In 2013, the University of Maastricht introduced the world to the first lab-grown
hamburger patty, and it cost $330,000 to create. Since then, a number of start-
ups have been working on various techniques to culture—rather than harvest—
meat that has the same chemical structure as what would have otherwise come
from an animal. Meanwhile, Ava Winery has figured out how to create wine that
tastes just as good as Dom Perignon Champagne—without any grapes. Propo-
nents also like cultured meats because they could help ease the environmental
footprint of livestock production.
What’s Next
Right now, labs are culturing the two critical elements of meat separately—the fat
and the muscle tissue. And they’re currently being produced with some animal
products. In the future, researchers are working on eliminating animals entire-
ly from the process and instead manufacturing an organic material with both
muscle and fat together. It will be 10-15 years before producers are able to scale
production to meet our demand, but by that time we might be printing our own
hamburgers at home.
Watchlist
Future Meat; Ava Winery; University of Maastricht; EU; FDA
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action Are we in a new epoch called the
Anthropocene?
Key Insight In 2016 alone, researchers and academics published thousands of peer-reviewed
papers, op-ed pieces and books. Traditionalists argue against using “Anthropo-
Scientists and geologists are in the middle of a heated argument about whether
cene,” suggesting that the debate about climate is relevant, but that geology
we are living in a new geological epoch, one that we’ve created ourselves in many
data is still lacking. They want to investigate when, exactly, humans began leaving
ways because of the technologies we’ve created and use every day. Given that
a visible mark on the planet. There is no doubt that some of our technological
we posted some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded, the debate about
advances have led to increased factory output and, as a result, pollution. The In-
whether we’ve permanently impacted the planet will be replaced by conversa-
ternational Union of Geological Sciences convened a special group to study the
tions about what we need to do next.
world on and in which we live—the rock strata, the soil, the atmosphere—and will
make a decision about what to call our current geologic time in 2017.
Examples
Depending on whose research and definitions you prefer, we are either in the Regardless of which term we use going forward, it is difficult to argue against the
“Holocene” epoch (from the Greek for “totally new), which began 11,700 years fact that humans are Earth’s first species to wield planet-scale influence. Many
ago just after the last ice age—or we are in a new epoch, called the “Anthropo- of us find a certain comfort in fatalism, so there is a possibility that in accepting
cene” (anthro for “man,” and cene for “new”). At the beginning of the Holocene, this new epoch, we absolve ourselves of blame and accept that our destiny as a
the global human population was estimated between 1 - 10 million. Today, many species was set in motion nearly 12,000 years ago. There is also an opportunity in
smaller American cities boast 1 million citizens. The new geological layers we are acknowledging that humanity has a stake in the ongoing evolution of our planet.
creating are riddled with chemicals and industrial waste, everyday garbage, pesti-
cide runoff and more. We’ve caused our sea levels to rise and our lakes and rivers Watchlist
to dry up. Ecologist Eugene Stoermer coined the term in the 1980s and Nobel The International Union of Geological Sciences; the Nature Conservancy; the At-
laureate Paul Crutzen popularized it in 2000. Suddenly among earth-science re- mospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions and other pre-publication forum
searchers, the Anthropocene has found new momentum. and open-review journal sites; the Anthropocene Working Group; U.S. Geological
Survey
What’s Next
Since 2014, each year on Earth has broken records for the hottest year in record-
ed history. The North Pole saw temperatures above freezing. Smog in China has
gotten so bad that government officials are building a building-sized air purifier
in Beijing.
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action NASA’s SLS tank holds 196,000 gallons of
liquid oxygen.
Space Exploration
Fifth year on the list
Key Insight become major players. Within the next 24-36 months, there will be a boom in
launch vehicles, landers, probes, rovers, space stations and research craft. We’ll
With a commercial space exploration boom and civilians now planning to colo-
also see partnerships formed for asteroid and moon mining and for space man-
nize Mars, 2017 should be a year of interesting announcements.
ufacturing. There will be ancillary opportunities across industries, from durable
clothing retailers to skilled manufacturing operations. In 2017, private equity firms
Examples should start looking at the soon-to-launch companies that will ultimately supply
Bigelow Aerospace and Axiom Space have both announced that by 2020, they the tools, materials and technologies for commercial space operations.
will have built commercial facilities for the International Space Station (ISS).
NASA is hoping that the ISS will help support and grow commercial space activ- Watchlist
ities in the near-future as it focuses more of its attention on exploring Mars.
NASA; Amazon; European Space Agency; Indian Space Research Organization;
NASA is also readying the Space Launch System in preparation for deep space China National Space Administration; DARPA; Scaled Composites and Virgin
exploration. The James Webb Space Telescope, a massive observatory the size Galactic (The Spaceship Company); XCOR Aerospace; SpaceX; Interorbital Sys-
of a tennis court, is nearing completion. Some of the most exciting space innova- tems; Stratolaunch; Masten Space Systems; Lockheed Martin; Northrop Grum-
tion is centered deep inside the Mojave Desert, where 17 space-related companies man; Boeing; Copenhagen Suborbitals; Orbital Sciences Corporation; Planetary
are closing in on commercial space travel, exploration and development. XCOR Resources; Samsung; Facebook; Alphabet and many more.
and Virgin Galactic are gearing up to take non-astronauts into space...for fun.
What’s Next
We saw successful (and tragically, some unsuccessful) commercial space launch-
es in the past two years. In September 2016, Elon Musk’s SpaceX suffered a major
setback when its Falcon 9 rocket exploded.
Space agencies in Europe, China and the U.S. are hoping to either land on or get
close enough to an asteroid to mine it or change its path. Expect to see humans
headed back to the Moon and global discussions about whether or not we should
make Mars a protected habitat, free of government fighting. China and India will
What’s Next
Invisibility cloaks have an obvious application for defense. However the same
basic idea might be applied to other kinds of waves, including heat—meaning
that in the future, we might be able to cloak everything from annoying sounds to
the sun. And of course, whoever’s inside the cloak would be able to see outside,
without being seen.
Quantum Computers
Second year on the list
Examples
D-Wave Systems recently announced that it will ship a 2000-qubit quantum
computer in 2017, which would make it the fastest and most powerful computer
on the planet. Researchers at IBM’s experimental quantum computing group
have begun to unlock difficult problems in quantum computing, such as detect-
ing errors. For example, classical computers can detect and correct errors using
a system of copying and extracting the value from the correct bits. When a quan-
tum computer tries to do the same thing, it alters the qubits just attempting to
copy them.
3D Printing
Sixth year on the list
What’s Next
The Mediated Matter Group at the MIT Media Lab has developed a technique to
print molten glass in 3D, and soon, the technology could be used at architectural
scale. New organic materials—such as tissue suitable for human bodies—will be
printed for use in medical procedures. In the next year, we’ll see companies cus-
tom-printing orthotics and footwear, eyeglasses and athletic equipment. Soon,
“one size fits all” won’t need to fit any one person ever again.
Key Insight
With so many objects, networks and people coming online, you will start to hear
companies calling themselves the “Internet of X.”
Examples
Israeli startup Consumer Physics—a sort of Internet of Ingestibles—wants to put
molecular spectroscopy into smartphones so that you can extract information
out of your food and pills. This would enable you to scan a piece of chicken in
order to search the fat and calories on your plate. Their research is also able
to image prescription and over-the-counter drugs in order to spot counterfeits.
Meantime, a new project called MatchMaker Exchange is an “Internet of DNA,”
matching the DNA from sick people around the world.
What’s Next
It’s not unrealistic to say that in the near future, everything you see (and even
the things you can’t) will become searchable via a distributed network. This will
unlock layers of information previously unavailable to us—but it will also create a
significant demand for verification.
Watchlist
Global Alliance for Genomics and Health; Alphabet (Google); Personal Genomics
Project; University of Southern California
Needs Monitoring Informs Strategy Requires Action 5G is the fifth generation of wireless
technology.
5G
First year on the list
Key Insight
5G trials, supported by the Federal Communications Commission and the Euro-
pean Union, are underway around the world.
Examples
5G is the fifth generation of wireless technology. We had 1G in the early 1990s and
2G in the late 90s, which enabled us to send text messages between two mobile
devices. 3G supported our ability to browse the internet. Now, with 4G, we’re able
to download and upload large videos. There are competing standards—WiMax
and LTE. 5G will dramatically increase the speeds at which we connect—we’ll
be able to pull Ultra HD and 3D video and use VR in the cloud, since download
speeds will hover around 10 gigabits per second. But it isn’t just our phones that
will use the connection: driverless cars, smart cities, and smart grids will all rely
on 5G.
What’s Next
Hardware manufacturers like Qualcomm are readying 5G modems and advanced
chipsets. For 5G to work, internet service providers will need to upgrade their
networks. Verizon and AT&T have already begun piloting 5G, but it will be a few
years before everyone has access.
Watchlist
Federal Communications Commission; European Union; internet service provid-
ers worldwide; car manufacturers; modem and chip manufacturers
The Institute’s Membership Program is our core offering. Our client members val-
ue the research, custom trends presentations and events, where they can meet
with and learn from other Institute members.
Project-Based Advising
This is traditional project-based engagement, and they range from a few weeks
to several months. Examples: An auto company asked us to forecast the future of
driving, given what we know to be true today. We worked with a financial services
company to forecast the future of credit cards. We advised a government agency
on forecasting scenarios for the future of America’s relationship with Russia.
Amy Webb is Founder and CEO of the Future Today Institute, a lead-
ing future forecasting and strategy firm that researches technology and
answers “What’s the future of X?” for a global client base. She is the
author of The Signals Are Talking, Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s
Mainstream (PublicAffairs, Dec. 2016), a book about how everyone can
and should use the tools of a futurist.
She works out of FTI offices in New York City and Washington D.C.
© 2017 Future
149 Today Institute
THE SIGNALS ARE TALKING
Why Today’s Fringe is Tomorrow’s Mainstream
Amy Webb
Publication date: December 6, 2016
$27.99/34.99 CAN • 336 pages • ISBN 978-1-61039-666-0
© 2017 Future
150 Today Institute
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BTCS FarmLink
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Buddy Fastacash
Content-producing Dow Chemical Company
Business Leaders organizations FDA
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Technology Button Copenhagen Suborbitals Federal Bureau
3M Amazon Droga5
Autodesk of Investigation
BuzzFeed Coursera
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ACLU EatWith
Group at the MIT Media Council
Anonymous AVEBE Financial Times
Ad Ready Lab eBay Enterprise
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Adler Seeds Carnegie Mellon EFF
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Apple D-Wave Systems
Bank of America Case Western Reserve Foundation Fuji Media Holdings
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of Health Sciences Margot Kaminski,
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Twitter Martin Programme on VirtualSKY
Stanford’s AI Lab and
Robocoin shyp the Impacts of Future Yomirui Shimbun Holdings
Vision Lab Tyson Foods Vivify
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RoundPegg Skype YouTube
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