Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Forecasting and
Replenishment (CPFR)
and the Network —
Cracking the Bullwhip!
Prepared by
James E. deMin
BT Infonet
Volume 3 w w w. b t . i n f o n e t . co m
I ntr o d u c t i o n
This paper explores the network implications of an emerging business initiative in the
consumer goods industry referred to as Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
Replenishment (CPFR) where manufacturers, distributors, and retailers jointly work
together to plan, forecast, and replenish products. While reliance upon some form of
communications media is an obvious aspect of any CPFR initiative, all too often the net-
work infrastructure is not adequately considered and the effectiveness of the CPFR initia-
tive suffers. The ability to optimise the global wide area network communications infra-
structure can greatly contribute to the end-to-end performance of collaborative planning
between trading partners. This optimisation at the network-level can then generate
orders-of-magnitude improvements in the business performance metrics of CPFR, which
include; fill rates, supply chain cycle times, supply chain inventory levels, and share-
holder value.
The existence of chaos in a supply chain also means that it A supply chain with high-risk exposure cannot be efficient.
is impossible to make the right decisions for every player There will always be tangible risks in a supply chain, which
within a supply chain. The risks of making the wrong or can lead to poor performance, but there are also intangible
ineffective decisions, or decision risks, become the elements such as the attitudes and perceptions of the
inevitable consequence. Thus, it will not be possible to users and members of the supply chain. The intangible
design optimal production schedules if there is uncertainty lack of confidence in a supply chain leads to actions and
as to when materials or components will be available. interventions by supply chain members, which collectively,
Ultimately, the supply chain is exposed to market risks, could further increase the risk exposure. A classic example
i.e., missing the market opportunities presented. A supply of this is the potential reaction from the customer and/or
chain cannot be responsive to changing market trends and distributor-facing end of a supply chain. For example, if a
customer preferences if the right market signals cannot be sales team believes that order cycle and order fulfillment
readily obtained and quickly interpreted. Similarly, a sup- times are not reliable, they will devise their own means of
ply chain cannot successfully penetrate a new market seg- addressing such perceived limitations. They may order
ment if there is a marked inability to quickly change pro- stock so as to have adequate supply levels to support their
duction or available supplies to meet fluctuations in existing customer demands and submit additional phan-
demand. Finally, market opportunities can be missed tom orders (i.e. creating their own private buffer stock) to
when customers and distributors inadvertently place secure additional on-hand supply, which thereby causes
orders with impossibly short order lead times that cannot inefficiencies. Similarly, they may place orders in anticipa-
be met by current production capacity. tion of potential future demand with the intention of later
cancelling such orders prior to scheduled shipment if
anticipated demand does not materialise. This risk spiral
>> Establish the monitoring of actual demand for product to >> Identify, and preferably, eliminate the cause of customer
as near a real-time basis as possible. order reductions or cancellations.
Even the most modern of supply chain management sys- >> Within the North American retail market, supply chain
tems, with all the bells and whistles, cannot automatically inefficiencies result in annual lost sales of $40 billion,
stop the "bullwhip effect." It’s a demand management or 3.5% of total sales.
process problem with very broad implications because it
often encompasses policies, enterprise applications (ERP, >> 30% of items in retail catalogues have data errors, which
SCM and CRM), interfaces, networks, trading exchanges, cost between $60 and $80 each and consume
data format inconsistencies, timing differences, etc. 25 minutes of manual cleansing.
It is therefore a mission imperative to continually seek to >> 60% of invoices generated errors and 43% of invoices
reduce any potential disruptions to the accurate and real- resulted in deductions.
time communications between supply chain partners. By
doing so, the variabilities resulting in the bullwhip effect >> For new products it can take up to four weeks for
can be similarly reduced. However, the techniques for complete and accurate item data to reach the retailer
minimising the bullwhip effect represent very daunting net- for entry into their procurement systems.
work challenges that involve seeking near 100% system
availability, predictable performance, scalability and These data inconsistencies result in inaccurate purchase
access controls across a global environment between orders, credit transactions, payments and an operational
numerous partners. As a result, even seemingly minor cost to resolve and correct. As noted previously, a basic
improvements in network performance, availability and requirement of CPFR is the reliance upon the data
reliability can yield orders-of-magnitude contribution to exchanged between partners. Therefore, before activities
business performance. such as ordering and delivery can accurately occur, data
must be exchanged and synchronised to ensure alignment
Item Synchronisation between the partners.
No discussion of supply chain management and CPFR Effective item synchronisation is based upon the electronic
would be complete without addressing the process of item exchange of data and the continuous maintenance of data
synchronisation, which is the exchange (at a point in time) attribute values between two or more different systems to
of basic business data used throughout the supply chain ensure item information alignment. The end result is that
process to create a common understanding between trad- the data attribute values are the same within all of the
>> Service Bureaus such as UCCnet — UCCnet is a owned >> AS2 provides a solution for securely exchanging EDI
subsidiary of the Uniform Code Council (UCC) that provides using MIME and the Hypertext Transmission Protocol
global item registry and data synchronisation services for (HTTP) instead of SMTP as the transport protocol. AS2
subscribing organisations. specifies the means to connect, deliver, validate, and
reply to (receipt) data in a secure and reliable way.
Item synronisation is almost always based upon the use of AS2 does not concern itself with the content of the EDI
agreed-to or mandated data exchange standards such as document, only the transport. AS2 essentially creates a
EDIINT AS2 (Electronic Data Interchange Over the Internet wrapper around EDI flat files and provides security and
Applicability Statement 2). These transactions can often encryption around the HTTP packets.
create challenges to the global WAN over which they are
exchanged as a result of their sizes and other unique
characteristics.
While EDIINT/AS2 is a sound, proven and increasingly contains numerous headers, which increase transaction
popular method for exchanging information across a sizes. Such factors must be considered when designing a
supply chain, it does create network challenges associated network that will satisfy required levels of performance
with ensuring adequate security, performance and network and scalability.
bandwidth sizing. For example, an EDIINT message
Exchanging data via EDIINT/AS2 is a step in the direction of enterprise-class applications used to support CPFR, such as
easing the pain associated with managing multiple streams those from SAP, i2, Manugistics, Oracle and others, have
of information between partners in a global supply chain. become the cornerstone of most multinational corpora-
However, the network challenges are much more complex tion’s (MNCs) supply chain management strategies.
than merely connecting to the Internet. Adopting such a software suite can provide numerous
advantages for an enterprise seeking to automate its
Network Implications inventory and production planning processes. However,
these applications in and of themselves represent numer-
The overriding objective of supply chain management and ous network challenges as a result of such factors as their
CPFR are to provide a high velocity flow of high quality and transactional characteristics, the geometric increase in
relevant information that will enable suppliers to provide an transactional growth resulting from A2A transactions (i.e.
uninterrupted and precisely timed flow of materials to dis- transactions created by one application interacting with
tributors and customers. These goals are dependent upon another), etc. For example, a single order transaction
a robust global communications infrastructure. Also, initiated by a user of a CRM application can be multiple
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