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Propagation
p g of Error and Tolerance Analysis
y
c .
In
e,
as
-E
at
St
Robust Design 1
Robust Design,
Propagation
p g of Error and Tolerance Analysis
y
c .
In
Robust Design Concepts
Propagation of Error (POE)
e,
RSM Analysis with TA
as
Lathe Machined Parts
-E
HDTV signal (as time allows)
at
1. Raymond H. Myers, Douglas C. Montgomery and Christine M. Anderson-Cook (2009), 3rd edition,
St
Response Surface Methodology, John Wiley and Sons, Inc, Sections 2.7-2.8 and 6.6, Chapters 1, 7,
8 and 10.
2. George E.P. Box, William G. Hunter and J. Stuart Hunter (2005), Statistics for Experimenters, 2nd
©
edition
diti JJohn
h Wil
Wiley, Ch
Chapter
t 12
12.
Robust Design 2
Agenda Transition
c .
In
Robust Design Concepts
e,
Propagation of Error (POE)
as
RSM Analysis with TA
-E
Lathe Machined Parts
HDTV signal (as time allows)
at
St
©
Robust Design 3
Robust Design
c .
The goal of robust design is to increase profits by consistently
In
satisfying
ti f i customer
t needs.
d
e,
Minimize
Mi i i d design
i re-workk after
ft d design
i ffreeze
as
Minimize surprises during design verification
Accelerate
cce e a e sca
scale
-Ee up a
and
d co
commercialization
e ca a o
Robust Design 4
Robust Design
c .
Functional Design: Strategy of Experimentation
In
Known Unknown
Use DOE to model response Phase: Screening Factors Factors
mean as a function of
e,
Screening
as
Phase: Factor effects
Ph
Phase: V ifi i
Verification Confirm?
no
Backup
St
Celebrate! yes
©
Robust Design 5
Robust Design
c .
Robust Design: Strategy of Experimentation
In
Known Unknown
Use DOE to model response Phase: Screening Factors Factors
variability as a function of
e,
Screening
as
factor levels. Phase: Factor effects
and interactions
Characterization
Choose levels of control no
Curvature?
caused by:
-E
factors to reduce variation Phase: Optimization
yes
Response
Surface
at
Methods
Celebrate! yes
• Variation of the
©
uncontrolled factors
factors.
Robust Design 6
Robust Design Concepts
c .
Concept: Choose levels of the control1 factors in a way that
In
reduces
d output
t t variation.
i ti In
I other
th words,
d make k the
th product,
d t
process or system robust to variation in the inputs; both control
e,
and uncontrolled2 factors. Quality is then improved without
removing
i th
the cause off variation.
i ti
as
1 Control factors (x) are parameters whose nominal values can
be cost
cost-effectively
effectively adjusted by the engineer
-E engineer.
Example: oven temperature.
at
2 Uncontrolled factors (z) are parameters that are difficult,
expensive, or impossible to control.
St
Robust Design 7
Control vs Uncontrolled Factors
c .
Determining whether a factor is an uncontrolled or a controlled one
In
often
ft depends
d d on the
th team’s
t ’ objective
bj ti or the
th scope off the
th project.
j t
A factor considered controlled in some cases might be considered
e,
uncontrolled in others.
as
For example material durometer (hardness):
iss controllable
co o ab e to
-E o a design
des g engineer,
e g ee , who
o ge
gets
s to
o cchose
ose the
e
material.
at
but may be uncontrolled to a process engineer who only
sees the
th variation
i ti within
ithi th
the chosen
h material.
t i l
St
©
Robust Design 8
Agenda Transition
c .
In
Robust Design Concepts
e,
Propagation of Error (POE)
as
RSM Analysis with TA
-E
Lathe Machined Parts
HDTV signal (as time allows)
at
St
©
Robust Design 9
Propagation of Error (POE)
Transmitted Variation
c .
Objective: Reduce the variation transmitted to the
In
response from variation in control factors
factors.
e,
as
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 10
Propagation of Error
How it works
c .
Once a relationship has been established between a factor and a
In
response, the
th variation
i ti in
i the
th output
t t can be:
b
e,
2. Independent of the level of the control factor
as
-E
See pictures on next two pages
at
St
©
Robust Design 11
Propagation of error
Dependent
p
c .
The transmitted variation is
In
Effect of Input
dependent
d d t on the
th level
l l off on Response
e,
Therefore, set the level of the
control factor to reduce
as
variation transmitted to the
response from variation
-E
(lack-of-control) of the
control factor.
at
St
A B
©
Control Factor
Robust Design 12
Propagation of error
Independent
p
c .
The transmitted variation is
In
independent
i d d t off the
th level
l l
of the control factor.
e,
Therefore, set the level of the
control factor to center the
as Response
Effect of Input
process mean on target. on Response
-E
R
at
St
A B
©
Control Factor
Robust Design 13
Power Circuit Design Example
c .
Consider two control factors:
In
1. Transistor Gain – nonlinear relationship to output voltage
2. Resistance – linear relationship to output voltage
e,
The variation in gain and resistance about their nominal values is
as
known. Both variances are constant over the range of nominal
values being considered.
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 14
Power Circuit Design Example
((reduce variation))
c .
In
e,
as
-E
at
St
c .
In
e,
as
-E
at
St
Thi corrects
This t the
th output
t t to
t the
th ttargeted
t d 115 volts.
lt
Robust Design 16
Power Circuit Design Example
on target
g with reduced variation
. c
To illustrate the theory, the control
In
factors
f were usedd in
i two steps:
first to decrease variation and
e,
second to move back on target. g
as
In practice, numerical optimization
can be used to simultaneously
-E
obtain all the goals.
at
St
©
Robust Design 17
Propagation of error
Just a little mathematical explanation
p
c .
Find regions where variation in the control factors transmits the least
In
variation to the response.
response
e,
Ŷ 0 1x1 11x12
Y
as
Ŷ 15 25x1 0.7x12
-E
at
St
th 1st derivative
the d i ti off ththe prediction
di ti equation.
ti
Robust Design 18
Propagation of error
Just a brief mathematical explanation
p
c .
Assume σx = 1 and σresid = 0
In
Yˆ 0 1x1 11x12
e,
Yˆ 15 25 x1 0.7 x12
as
2
Y 2
Ŷ2
x 2
x
resid
-E
25 1.4 x1 x2 resid
2
Yˆ
at
2
St
c .
What is POE?
In
2 2
f 2 f 2
2Yˆ xi z j resid
2
POE 2Yˆ
i x i j z j
e,
as
(using the transfer function):
from the lack of control of the control factors and variability
-E
from uncontrolled factors
(you enter these standard deviations),
at
plus
l th
the normall process variation
i ti
St
Robust Design 20
Propagation of error
Simple
p One-Factor Illustration (p
(page
g 1 of 2))
c .
1. Build a One Factor
In
RSM design.
d i
2. Factor A: low level = 0
e,
and high level = 15
as
3. Design for a cubic
model.
-E
4. Sort by Factor A and
enter this data:
at
St
©
Robust Design 21
Propagation of error
Simple
p One-Factor Illustration (p
(page
g 2 of 2))
c .
5. Compute effects and select appropriate model.
In
Fitted equation (in terms of actual factor values) is:
14.95 25.05 A 0.71A 2
e,
Y
as
From the Design Layout Screen - View, Column Info Sheet –
enter
t 1.00
1 00 for
f F -E
Factor
t A.A
Robust Design 22
Propagation of error
Simple
p One-Factor Illustration
c .
Analyze the response (R1) and look at the one factor plot
In
and the propagation of error plot (from the View menu
menu.))
One Factor One Factor
e,
233.081 2
3
2 25.0693 3
as
178.289 19.804
POE(R1)
R1
123.497 14.5387 2
68.7051
-E 9.27348
at
13.9131 2
3
2 4.00821 3
0.00 3.75 7.50 11.25 15.00 0.00 3.75 7.50 11.25 15.00
St
A: A A: A
c .
If the response is a linear function of the independent factors,
In
the transmitted variation is a constant.
constant
e,
as
ŷ 0 1x1
ŷ 15 25 x1
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 24
Propagation of error
Linear relationship
p (p
(page
g 1 of 2))
c .
assume x 1 and resid 3.17
In
yˆ 0 1 x1
e,
yˆ 15 25 x1
as
2
Y 2
2
yˆ
x 2
x
resid
yˆ 25
2
-E
x2 resid
2
Constant
at
St
Robust Design 25
Propagation of error
Linear relationship
p (p
(page
g 2 of 2))
c.
Point Prediction node:
In
e,
as
-E
25
2
yˆ x2 resid
2
at
25 1 3.17324
2 2 2
St
25.206
©
Robust Design 26
Agenda Transition
c .
Robust Design Concepts
In
Propagation of Error (POE)
e,
RSM Analysis with TA
as
Lathe Machined Parts
DOE (Design-Expert)
-E (Design Expert)
Tolerance analysis (VarTran)
at
HDTV signal (as time allows)
St
©
Robust Design 27
Robust RSM Simulation
Precise Machined Parts
c .
Acme precision machine company has been having trouble holding
In
nominal values on their new highly
highly-automated
automated lathe.
lathe Your job is to
study the process and reduce deviations from nominal. Previous work
e,
has determined that three factors are the key influencers on the
process:
as
Factor Units Range
Feed Rate
-E
Cutting Speed fpm
ipr
330 - 700
0.01 – 0.022
at
Depth of cut inches 0 05 – 0.10
0.05 0 10
St
The factor levels given are the extreme values, do not exceed them.
©
Robust Design 28
Robust RSM Simulation
Precise Machined Parts
c .
Which design is an appropriate Screening Known Unknown
In
Factors Factors
choice
h i for
f the
th Lathe
L th DOE?
Trivial
Screening many
e,
What model should we design Vital few
Characterization
f ?
for?
as
Factor effects
and interactions
no
-E Optimization
Curvature?
yes
Response
at
Surface
methods
St
Verification no
Confirm? Backup
Celebrate!
©
yes
Robust Design 29
Robust RSM Simulation
Precise Machined Parts
c .
The experimenters chose to run a Box-Behnken design.
In
The significant factors are already known, and optimization is
the focus.
e,
The region of interest and the region of operability are very
similar (can’t exceed the stated factor levels.)
as
They would like to fit a quadratic model.
-E
The key response is delta, i.e. the deviation of the finished part’s
dimension from its nominal value. Delta is measured in mils,
at
1 mil = 0.001 inches.
St
©
Robust Design 30
Robust RSM Simulation
Precise Machined Parts
c .
1. Build a three factor Box-Behnken response surface design.
In
(The
(Th extreme
t values
l define
d fi a Box-Behnken
B B h k design.)
d i ) Save
S the
th
design as “Lathe.dxp”.
e,
2. Right click on the response column header and run the
simulation: Lathe.sim
as
3. Fit an appropriate model (reduce as needed) to the response:
d lt
delta. -E
4. Examine the response surface to find factor levels where delta
at
is zero.
St
©
Robust Design 31
Robust RSM Simulation
Precise Machined Parts
c .
delta
0.022
In
0.2
0.3
Note the variety of
0.1 speed and feed
combinations that can
e,
-0.2
0.019 0.0
-0.1
produce a delta of 00.
as
You could also
B: Feed
0.016 5
explore the other
-E -0.2
02
graph combinations
of speed vs. depth
at
0.013
-0.1
01
and feed vs. depth.
-0.3
St
0.010
A: Speed
Robust Design 32
Robust RSM Simulation
Precise Machined Parts – Add POE
c .
1. Enter information on the expected variation of the controllable
In
factors
f t about
b t their
th i sett points.
i t From
F the
th Design
D i node, d go tot
“Column Info Sheet” and enter:
e,
Variable Standard Deviation
as
A – Speed 5 fpm
B – Feed 0.00175 ipr
-E
C – Depth 0.0125 inches
3. Re-save (“Lathe.dxp”)
©
c .
POE(delta) POE(delta)
0.022
In
0.100
0.13
0.14
0.26
0.019 0.088 0.24
e,
0.12 0.22
0.2
0.18
C: Deptth
B: Feed
d
0 16
0.16
0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12
0.14 5
as
0.016 0.19 0.17 0.15 5 0.075
0.013
-E 0.063
0.14
0.16 0.18
0.2 0.22
0.240.26
at
0.010 0.050
330 423 515 608 700 330 423 515 608 700
A: Speed A: Speed
St
Robust Design 34
Robust RSM Simulation
Precise Machined Parts – Optimization
p
c .
1. Use numerical optimization to find factor levels near zero delta
In
that
th t are also
l robust:
b t
Response Goal Low High
e,
Delta Target = 0 -0
0.4
4 04
0.4
as
POE(Delta) Minimize 0.0 0.3
-E
2 Choose settings to operate the lathe:
2.
Speed fpm
at
Feed ipr
St
Depth inches
Delta mils
©
POE(Delta) mils
Robust Design 35
Robust RSM Simulation
Precise Machined Parts – Point Prediction
c .
In
e,
as
-E
The tolerance interval using the POE standard deviation is from
at
-0.4462 to +0.4462.
Since the specifications are -0.4400 to 0.4400 VarTran should
St
Robust Design 36
Agenda Transition
c .
Robust Design Concepts
In
Propagation of Error (POE)
e,
RSM Analysis with TA
as
Lathe Machined Parts
DOE (Design-Expert)
-E (Design Expert)
Tolerance analysis (VarTran)
at
HDTV signal (as time allows)
St
©
Robust Design 37
How Do We Model Tolerances
for Complex
p Systems?
y
c .
VarTran® is a software package developed by Dr. Wayne Taylor.
In
VarTran can be used to establish and assess targets and
tolerances for product and process inputs (x’s)
e,
The targets and tolerances selected are those which:
as
minimize the variation in the output (y)
center
t the -E
th output
t t (y)
( ) on its
it ttargett value
l
at
St
©
RDTA section 1 38
Requirements for VarTran
c .
Vartran requires that a y = f(x) model has been established
In
The y = f(x) model can come from the following sources:
e,
Pre-existing mathematical relationship
as
Design of experiments (factorial or response surface)
A combination of the above
-E
at
St
©
RDTA section 1 39
Requirements for VarTran
c .
In order to fullyy optimize
p p
a product p
or process, the
In
following elements are required for input to VarTran:
e,
1. Inputs (target and range)
2. Capabilities of inputs
as
(variation about their set points)
3 Outputs (responses)
3. -E
4. Model (y = f(x))
at
5 Specifications for outputs
5.
St
©
RDTA section 1 40
Precise Machined Parts
Tolerance Analysis
y
c.
Open VarTran file “Lathe.vta”:
In
Lathe.dxp
e,
A : Speed R1 : delta
as
B : Feed I/O
C : Depth SYSTEM
-E
s_R1 : delta residual std dev
at
St
©
Robust Design 41
Tolerance Analysis
PCA Requires
q Five Items
.
c
1) Inputs 3) Outputs
In
e,
2)) Capabilities
p
of Inputs
as
4) Model: Y=f(x)
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design
5) Specs for Outputs 42
Precise Machined Parts
Tolerance Analysis
y
c .
Need to enter specifications to conduct tolerance analysis:
In
e,
as
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 43
Precise Machined Parts
Tolerance Analysis
y
.
c
In
e,
as
Use Interval
-E optimization.
at
St
©
Robust Design 44
Precise Machined Parts
Tolerance Analysis
y
.
c
In
e,
as
-E
Cpk of 1.11 < 1.3
at
Marginal at best.
best
St
©
Robust Design 45
Tolerance Analysis
Improving
p g Cpk – It’s a Business Decision
c .
Change Specifications
In
(engineering
( i i requirements
i t andd VOC)
Improve the Controls
e,
(more cost)
Improve Measurement System
as
(more cost and/or R&D)
-E
Change the Design
(more R&D)
at
Refuse the Business
(cost of lost opportunity)
St
Robust Design 46
Precise Machined Parts
Improving
p g Cpk
c.
In
e,
as
Better control of
-E factor C (depth)
does the most to
improve capability.
at
St
©
Robust Design 47
Precise Machined Parts
Improving
p g Cpk
. c
In
e,
as
-E
at
Reduce std dev by ½:
St
0.0125 → 0.00625
©
Robust Design 48
Precise Machined Parts
Tolerance Analysis
y
.
c
In
Re-optimize,
e,
then find new
process
as
capability.
-E
Cpk of 1.53
at
is good
improvement!
St
©
Robust Design 49
How Does VarTran Work?
c .
VarTran relies on having a good y=f(x) model.
In
The variability in outputs (y’s) depends on the variability of
e,
the inputs (x’s).
as
We input the expected variation in the x’s and VarTran uses
statistical tolerancing techniques to calculate the
resultant distribution of y(s)
-E y(s).
RDTA section 1 50
Empirical Tolerancing
c .
Use DOE and Empirical Tolerancing:
In
1. When we cannot write the transfer function due to:
e,
Predictive equation not being known from first principles.
Existing
E i ti results
lt differing
diff i from
f our models!
d l !
as
2. When the Y(‘s) are too risky to be left untested and
tolerance modeling is insufficient to guarantee results
-E results.
at
St
©
RDTA section 1 51
Agenda Transition
c .
Robust Design Concepts
In
Propagation of Error (POE)
e,
RSM Analysis with TA
as
Lathe Machined Parts
HDTV signal (as time allows)
-E
Incorporates uncontrolled (noise)
at
DOE (Design-Expert)
Tolerance analysis (VarTran)
St
©
Robust Design 52
Uncontrolled Factors in RSM
High
g Definition TV
c .
The goal for a robust product design is to achieve high signal with
In
low
l variance.
i
There are four control factors and three uncontrolled factors.
e,
Control
C t l factors:
f t x1, x2, x3 and
d x 4.
as
Uncontrolled factors: z1, z2 and z3.
-E
We are interested in a quadratic model, but the experiments are
expensive and time is short. Let’s try to minimize the runs in the
at
DOE.
St
©
Robust Design 53
Uncontrolled Factors in RSM
Building
g a Design
g (p
(page
g 1 of 2))
c .
1. Start with a 7 factor “Min Run Res V” (MR5) CCD.
In
e,
as
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 54
Uncontrolled Factors in RSM
Building
g a Design
g (p
(page
g 2 of 2))
. c
2. Enter factor names and levels:
In
e,
as
-E
at
St
Robust Design 55
Uncontrolled Factors in RSM
Simulate and Analyze
y Response
p
c .
1. Run the simulation by:
In
right-clicking on the response column heading
e,
choosing “Simulate Response”
as
choosing the “HDTV.sim” file and clicking OK.
2 Analyze the response (signal)
2. -E (signal).
at
St
©
Robust Design 56
Uncontrolled Factors in RSM
Add POE and Optimize
p (page
(p g 1 of 2))
c.
1. Click on the “Design” node and choose “Column Info Sheet”
In
andd enter
t the
th standard
t d d deviation
d i ti for
f each
h factor:
f t
e,
as
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 57
Uncontrolled Factors in RSM
Add POE and Optimize
p (page
(p g 2 of 2))
c .
2. Find levels of the controllable factors to:
In
maximize signal (LL = 70, UL = 100)
minimizing variation (LL = 4, UL = 20)
e,
3 Re-save
3. R “HDTV d ” and
“HDTV.dxp” dSSave as “HDTV
“HDTV.vta”
t ”
as
Note: We can
can’tt select (optimize) levels for the uncontrolled
-E
factors. Therefore set them to their midpoint using the
goal of “equal to →”.
at
St
©
Robust Design 58
Uncontrolled Factors in RSM
Point Prediction (Tolerance Interval)
c .
The tolerance interval using the POE standard deviation starts at 75.16.
In
Since
Si the
h lower
l specification
ifi i lilimit
i iis 70 V
VarTran
T should
h ld fifind
d the
h process
capable.
e,
as
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 59
Agenda Transition
c .
Robust Design Concepts
In
Propagation of Error (POE)
e,
RSM Analysis with TA
as
Lathe Machined Parts
HDTV signal (as time allows)
-E
Incorporates uncontrolled (noise)
at
DOE (Design-Expert)
Tolerance analysis (VarTran)
St
©
Robust Design 60
HDTV with Uncontrolled Factors
Tolerance Analysis
y
.
c
Open VarTran file “HDTV.vta”:
In
HDTV dxp
HDTV.dxp
A : x1 band width R1 : signal
e,
B : x2 freq
as
C : x3 power
I/O
D : x4 color
E : z1 voltage
-E SYSTEM
at
F : z2 compression
St
G : z3 bits
©
s_R1 : signal
g residual std dev
Robust Design 61
Uncontrolled Factors
Tolerance Analysis
y
c .
Handling uncontrolled factors during tolerance analysis:
In
Long-term this factor will fluctuate within some range.
The best guess for the current setting of this factor is it’s
e,
midpoint.
midpoint
as
Set uncontrolled factors to their nominal values.
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 62
Uncontrolled Factor z1
Tolerance Analysis
y
.
c
In
e,
as
-E
at
Min = Nominal
Max = Nominal
St
do Not include
in optimization
©
Robust Design 63
Uncontrolled Factor z2
Tolerance Analysis
y
.
c
In
e,
as
-E
at
Min = Nominal
Max = Nominal
St
do Not include
in optimization
©
Robust Design 64
Uncontrolled Factor z3
Tolerance Analysis
y
.
c
In
e,
as
-E
at
Min = Nominal
Max = Nominal
St
do Not include
in optimization
©
Robust Design 65
HDTV with Uncontrolled Factors
Tolerance Analysis
y
c .
Need to enter specifications to conduct tolerance analysis:
In
e,
as
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 66
HDTV with Uncontrolled Factors
Tolerance Analysis
y
c .
In
Statistical Tolerance
Before optimizing let’s check LSL
e,
the Cpk you get by simply ran
th nominal
the i l settings
tti on the
th
as
input factors. 67.378 terrestrial 109.07
Characteristic Value
-E Average:
Standard Deviation:
88.224
6.9486
Cp: ----
at
Cc: ----
Cpk: 0.87
St
c .
In
e,
as
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 68
HDTV with Uncontrolled Factors
Tolerance Analysis
y
c .
In
e,
as
Use Simplex
Optimization -E
at
St
©
Robust Design 69
HDTV with Uncontrolled Factors
Tolerance Analysis
y
c .
In
Statistical Tolerance
LSL
e,
as
70 terrestrial 105.3
Characteristic Value
-EA
Average:
Standard Deviation:
89 999
89.999
5.1002
Cp: ----
at
Cc: ---- Cpk of 1.31
C k
Cpk: 1 31
1.31
is acceptable!
St
c .
In
e,
as
-E
at
St
©
Robust Design 71
HDTV with Uncontrolled Factors
Tolerance Analysis
y
c .
In
Targets and Tolerances of Inputs
Input Type Tolerance / Category LSL USL Average and Variation Requirements
e,
A Statistical 127.24 + ---- - ---- ---- ---- Average = 127.24, Std. Dev. <= 5
B Statistical 9.6518 + ---- - ---- ---- ---- Average = 9.6518, Std. Dev. <= 1
as
C Statistical 53525 + ---- - ---- ---- ---- Average = 53525, Std. Dev. <= 2500
D Statistical 588.88 + ---- - ---- ---- ---- Average = 588.88, Std. Dev. <= 60
E
F
Statistical
Statistical
-E
150 + ---- - ----
6 + ---- - ----
----
----
----
----
Average = 150, Std. Dev. <= 35
Average = 6, Std. Dev. <= 2
at
G Statistical 7.5 + ---- - ---- ---- ---- Average = 7.5, Std. Dev. <= 3
s_R1 Statistical 0 + ---- - ---- ---- ---- Average = 0, Std. Dev. <= 1.9194
St
R1 Statistical ---- + ----- - ------ 70 Ave = 89.999, Std. Dev. <= 5.1002
Robust Design 72
How to get help
c .
Search publications posted at www.statease.com
In
In Stat-Ease software press for Screen Tips, view
reports in annotated mode, look for context-sensitive
e,
help (right-click) or search the main help system
system.
as
Explore Experiment Design Forum http://forum.statease.com
and
a d post
pos your
you ques
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