Basic Probability Concepts

(Part 1)
 Probability
• Degree of certainty or uncertainty that a
certain event will occur
• Ranges from 0 to 1

l---------------------------l----------------------------l
0 0.5 1
Impossible Sure
Event Event
STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT, SAMPLE
SPACE, AND EVENTS
 Experiment
• A process that generates well-defined
experimental outcomes
– experimental outcome = sample point
• For a single repetition of an experiment, only
one of all possible outcomes occurs
Experiment Experimental Outcomes

Tossing a fair coin Head, Tail

Rolling a fair die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Playing a board game Win, Tie, Lose

Coming to class Early, On time, Late

Experiment Experimental Outcomes

Tossing a fair coin H, T

Rolling a fair die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Playing a board game W, T, L

Coming to class E, O, L
 Sample space
• The set of all experimental outcomes / sample
points
Experiment Sample Space

Tossing a fair coin S = {H, T}

Rolling a fair die S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Playing a board game S = {W, T, L}

Coming to class S = {E, O, L}

• But there is such a thing as Multiple-
Step experiments. . .
– Tossing a fair coin twice
– Rolling a fair die twice
– Playing a board game thrice
– Coming to class 26 times
Multiple-Step Sample Space
Experiment
Tossing a fair coin S = {(H,H), (T,H), (H,T), (T,T)}
twice
Rolling a fair die twice S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), ... ,(6,6)}

Playing a board game S = {(W,W,W), (W,W,T), (W,W,L),

thrice (W,T,W), ... , (L,L,L)}
Coming to class 26 S = {(E,E,...,E), ... , (L,L,...,L)}
times
 Counting Rule for Multiple-Step
Experiments
“If an experiment can be described as a
sequence of k steps with n1 possible outcomes
on the first step, n2 possible outcomes on the
second step, and so on, then the total number
of experimental outcomes is given by
(n1)(n2)...(nk)”
(Anderson, Sweeney, & Williams, 2008).
Multiple-Step Sample Space Total Number
Experiment of
Experimental
Outcomes
Tossing a fair S = {(H,H), (T,H), (H,T), (T,T)} 2x2=4
coin twice

Rolling a fair die S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), ... ,(6,6)} 6 x 6 = 36

twice

Playing a board S = {(W,W,W), (W,W,T), (W,W,L), 3 x 3 x 3 = 27

game thrice (W,T,W), ... , (L,L,L)}

Coming to class S = {(E,E,...,E), ... , (L,L,...,L)} 3^26 =

26 times 2.54 x 10^12
Consider the multiple-step experiment of (1) tossing a fair coin
then (2) playing a board game
– Sample space of (1)  S = {H, T}
– Sample space of (2)  S = {W, T, L}

Therefore, the sample space of this multiple-step

experiment is...

S = {(H,W), (H,T), (H,L), (T,W), (T,T), (T,L)}

This experiment has 2 x 3 = 6 outcomes

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
 Combination
• counting the number of experimental
outcomes when n objects are to be selected
from a set of N objects

where,
N! = N(N-1)(N-2) . . . (2)(1)
n! = n(n-1)(n-2) . . . (2)(1)
and, by definition, 0! = 1
! is called “factorial”
 Combination: EXAMPLE 1
How many ways can an HR manager randomly
hire two applicants from a set of five
applicants?
 Combination: EXAMPLE 2
A salesperson is going mall-to-mall to promote
her new juice drink. But for today, she can go
to only 3 of the 14 Pasig malls. How many sets
of 3 Pasig malls can she go to today?
 Permutation
• counting the number of experimental
outcomes when n objects are to be selected
from a set of N objects
– but with regard to order

where,
N! = N(N-1)(N-2) . . . (2)(1)
n! = n(n-1)(n-2) . . . (2)(1)
and, by definition, 0! = 1
 Permutation: EXAMPLE 1
How many ways can an HR manager randomly
hire a product development specialist and a
advertising specialist from a set of five
applicants?
 Permutation: EXAMPLE 2
A salesperson is going mall-to-mall to promote
her new juice drink. But for this morning,
afternoon and evening, she can go to only
three of the 14 Pasig malls. How many ways
can she schedule her mall visits today?
OTHER EXAMPLES
 1
You are studying the roof maintenance patterns
of the household heads at a barrio. You have
decided to stratify by appearance of the
household. In your “very good appearance”
stratum, there are 8 households / household
heads (HHs). From that particular group. . .
 1
QUESTIONS:

1. How many ways can you randomly select 2

HHs?
2. How many ways can you randomly select 3
HHs?
3. How many ways can you randomly interview
3 HHs?
 2
How many ways can you arrange the letters of
the following words?
– WATER
– INTEGRAL
– CURIOUS
– BOOKKEEPER
 3
The CEO of a company is planning to have an
official “executive photo” for him, his two
female vice presidents and his two male vice
presidents. They are to line up for picture
taking.
 3
QUESTIONS:

1.How many arrangements are possible?

2.How many arrangements are possible if...
a. One male VP insists on standing on the rightmost
side
b. One female VP insists on standing right next to
the CEO
ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES
 Two basic requirements for
assigning probabilities
1. “The probability assigned to each
experimental outcome must be between 0
and 1, inclusively. If we let Ei denote the ith
experimental outcome and P(Ei) its probability,
then this requirement can be written as

(Anderson, Sweeney & Williams, 2008).

 Two basic requirements for
assigning probabilities
2. “The sum of the probabilities for all the
experimental outcomes must equal 1. For n
experimental outcomes, this requirement can
be written as

“
(Anderson, Sweeney & Williams, 2008).
 Three methods of assigning
probabilities
1. Classical method – all experimental outcomes are equally
likely
– if there are n possible experimental outcomes, a probability of
1/n is assigned to each experimental outcome

EXAMPLES:
Tossing a fair coin
P(Head) = P(Tail) = ½

Rolling a fair die

P(1) = P(2) = P(3) = P(4) = P(5) = P(6) = 1/6
Three methods of assigning
probabilities
2. Relative frequency (or empirical)
method – appropriate when estimates on the
proportion of the time the experimental outcome will
occur if the experiment is repeated a large number of
times are available

EXAMPLE (Waiting time of patients as observed over a 20-

day period)
# of patients waiting # of days this outcome
occurred
0 2
1 5
2 6
3 4
Relative frequency approximation:

Number of times an event occurred

___________________________
Number of times experiment was conducted
 Three methods of assigning
probabilities
3. Subjective method
-- when little data are available
-- based on experience, intuition,
rumors, and/or belief
-- must still satisfy the two basic
requirements for assigning
probabilities
 EXAMPLES*
1. Suppose an experiment has five equally likely outcomes: E1, E2,
E3, E4, E5. Assign probabilities to each outcome. Which method
did you use?

2. A decision maker subjectively assigned the following

probabilities to four possible outcomes of an experiment:
P(E1) = .10, P(E2) = .15, P(E3) = .40, and P(E4) = .20
Are these probabilities valid?

*from Anderson, Sweeney, & Williams

(2008)
 EXAMPLES*
3. An experiment with three outcomes has been repeated 50
times, and it was learned that E1 occurred 20 times, E2
occurred 13 times, and E3 occurred 17 times. Assign
probabilities to the outcomes. Which method did you use?

*from Anderson, Sweeney, & Williams

(2008)
EVENTS AND THEIR PROBABILITIES
 Event
• Any subset of a sample space
• A collection of sample points
• An event is said to have occurred if any one of
its sample points appears as the experimental
outcome
 Probability of an Event
• The sum of the probabilities of all the sample
points in the event
• If A is an event, the probability of event A is
denoted by P(A)
 Example
50 students in a class each specified the number of their siblings.
Following are the results:
Number of siblings Number of students
who specified the
number on the left

1 3
2 9
3 13
4 13
5 8
6 4
Let Event A = the event of randomly picking a student with at most 3
siblings
Event B = . . . . . at least 5 siblings
What is P(A)? What is P(B)?
• “Any time that we can identify all the sample points of an
experiment and assign probabilities to each, we can compute
the probability of an event using the definition...

• ...However, in many experiments, the large number of sample

points makes the identification of the sample points, as well
as the determination of their associated probabilities,
extremely cumbersome, if not impossible”

(Anderson, Sweeney, & Williams, 2008).

 Main references
Anderson, D.R., Sweeney, D.J., and Williams, T.A. (2008). Modern Business
Statistics with Microsoft Excel. Cincinnati, OH: South-Western/Thomson
Learning.

UP School of Statistics. (n.d.). Statistics 101 Handout / Course Notes. Diliman,

Quezon City.

Walpole, R. (1982). Introduction to Statistics. Singapore: Pearson Education.

Basic Probability Concepts
(Part 1)