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4
CARAT

We d n e s d a y, 1 7 t h J a n u a r y 2 0 1 8

GOLD 29801
SILVER 39420

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 Market Wrapup
Tuesday, 16th January 2018

Scrip Contract Open Price High Low Close Price

Gold 05-Feb-2018 29799 29850 29740 29822

Silver 05-Mar-2018 39626 39693 38573 39420

Crude Oil 19-Jan-2018 4107 4128 4060 4086

Natural Gas 25-Jan-2018 200.10 201.20 195.4 199.5

Copper 28-Feb-2018 459.50 460 451.95 456.5

Zinc 31-Jan-2018 219.35 220.10 216.90 219.9

Lead 31-Jan-2018 163.30 164.20 162.10 164

Aluminium 31-Jan-2018 140.80 141.05 139 140.35

Nickel 31-Jan-2018
810 810 782.40 802.6

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Support & Resistance
Wednesday, 17th January 2018

Scrip Contract RES-2 RES-1 PIVOT SUP.1 SUP.2

Gold 05-Feb-2018 29914 29868 29804 29758 29694

Silver 05-Mar-2018 40348 39884 39228 38764 38108

Crude Oil 19-Jan-2018 4159 4122.6 4091 4054 4023

Natural Gas 25-Jan-2018 204.5 202 198.7 196.2 192.9

Copper 28-Feb-2018 464.2 460.3 456.1 452.3 448.1

Zinc 31-Jan-2018 222.1 221 218.9 217.8 215.7

Lead 31-Jan-2018 165.5 164.7 163.4 162.6 161.3

Aluminium 31-Jan-2018
142.1 141.2 140.1 139.2 138

Nickel 31-Jan-2018
825.9 814.2 798.3 786.6 770.7

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MCX Outlook
Wednesday, 17th January 2018

Base Metals trade higher; may correct in the evening session

Base Metals are trading with a positive bias today but is seen correcting in the evening session. Copper is trading at 460.15, up 7.10 or 1.57%
whereas Nickel has gained over two percent to trade at 819.20, up 15.50 along with the rest of the group which are higher by over a percent each.
The rally in base metals is being driven by a weaker dollar, falling inventories on global warehouses and strong demand from China. The latest
customs report from China showed that imports for unwrought Copper fell 4.3% in December despite which imports stood at its second highest
level in 2017 supported by strong domestic demand for prices.
Despite the minor drop in copper imports, demand for aluminum and zinc remained at its highest level in 2017 reflecting the domestic supply
crunch from the bans earlier and steady demand from consumers in the country. The inventories across warehouses under LME has also been a
major contributing factor to the strong rally in base metals in the short term.
The correlation between base metals is already at its lowest level and is being governed by individual sentiment and fundamentals.

Crude Oil extends gains despite higher rig count

Crude Oil is trading at 4077, up 12 points or 0.32% whereas Natural Gas is down 4.80 or 2.35% to trade at 199.10 currently.
Crude Oil prices have been trending higher despite weaker inventories report and a gain in active rig counts as per the report released by Baker
Hughes last Friday.
The upside can be attributed largely to the clearing global inventories supported cuts from OPEC and Russia along with a massive decline in
inventories in the US along with gasoline and distillates. The focus now shifts to the monthly report from OPEC which should provide further clues
into the compliance levels from OPEC members.
The intraday bias is neutral on crude oil prices. The upside resistance is seen at 4100 and a break above this should be a good opportunity to go
long on the metal whereas on the downside, 4060 continues to act as a strong support for prices.
It is also important to note that a strong negative close could trigger a short term correction in the metal.

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Market News
Wednesday, 17th January 2018

Special News
Gold Prices Up in Asia As Trending Weaker Dollar Aids Sentiment
Gold prices gained in Asia on Wednesday with a weaker dolalr helping demand for the precious
metal priced int he US currency.
Gold futures for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose
0.51% to $1,343.90 a troy ounce.
Overnight, gold prices traded roughly unchanged on Tuesday, shrugging off a rebound in the dollar
from three-year lows as data showed traders remained bullish on the precious metal despite the
uptick in demand for risker assets.
Gold prices remained close to four-month highs amid ongoing demand for the yellow metal as data showed traders increased their bullish
bets on gold for the fourth-straight week.
Speculative net long position in gold rose by 40,000 contracts to a net long 203,300 contracts, a six-week high, according to the most
recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report.
Crude Oil Prices Settle Lower Amid Profit Taking
Crude oil prices eased from three-year highs on profit taking but remained well supported amid
expectations OPEC-led output curbs would further tighten global supplies offsetting rising US
production.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange WTI crude futures for January delivery fell 57 cents to settle
at $63.73 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent fell 76 cents to trade at
$69.50 a barrel.
It what was a thin trading day, following the Martin Luther King holiday Monday, oil prices fell as traders took profit on the recent rally which
saw both Brent crude and WTI crude prices hit three-year highs supported by rising global demand growth and OPEC’s ongoing
commitment to the output-cut pact.
“We see that the market is becoming balanced. We see that the market surplus is decreasing, but the market is not completely balanced
yet,” he told reporters. “Of course, we need to continue monitoring the situation,” said Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak.

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Market News
Wednesday, 17th January 2018

Commodity Buzz
Aluminium market under short covering; Support seen at 140.7
Technically Aluminium market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 8.36% to settled at 2413 while prices up
0.1 rupees.
Now MCX Aluminium is getting support at 140.7 and below same could see a test of 140.1 levels and resistance is now likely to be seen at 142.2,
a move above could see prices testing 143.1.
Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.07% at 141.10 gained on short-covering as support seen after LME aluminium finished 0.6 percent up at $2,227 a
tonne. In late December it reached $2,290.50, its highest in more than four years, partly down to output cuts in top producer China.
Meanwhile Global aluminum production and supply are currently in relative balance at around 63 million mt. The Middle East consumes less than
50% of its own overall annual aluminum output. While the region accounted for 9% of total world production in 2017, its consumption was just
2.2% of the total.
Nickel market under fresh buying; Support seen at 813.7
Technically Nickel market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.36% to settled at 10622 while prices up
14.1 rupees.
Now MCX Nickel is getting support at 813.7 and below same could see a test of 809.7 levels and resistance is now likely to be seen at 822, a
move above could see prices testing 826.3.
Nickel on MCX settled up 1.75% at 817.80 on fresh buying as support seen after LME Nickel rose 1.4 percent to $12,900 a ton as inventories
tracked by the bourse fell to the lowest level since November 2016 as sentiments improved even with production at record levels, demand growth
outpaced supply increases last year, spurring a drawdown in inventories and pushing the market into a deficit that will persist in 2018.
Meanwhile China’s economic growth is expected to have slowed slightly in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter as the government
extended a crackdown on debt risks and factory pollution. China’s central bank on Monday lifted its official yuan midpoint to the highest level in
more than over 1-1/2 years, to 6.4574 per dollar, reflecting solid spot yuan performance on Friday and broad dollar weakness in overseas markets.
In the holiday-shortened week ahead, the U.S. economic calendar will be light, with a report on the housing sector expected to draw the most
attention. China is slated to release what will be closely watched fourth-quarter growth data, while in Europe investors will await monthly inflation
data to assess how fast the ECB could start unwinding its asset purchase program.

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Analyst Speaks
Wednesday, 17th January 2018

Gold MCX

Technically Gold market is getting support at 29758 and below same could
see a test of 29694 levels and resistance is now likely to be seen at 29686, RESISTANCE 2 29914
a move above could see prices testing 29914.

RESISTANCE 1 29686

PIVOT 29804

BUY GOLD FEB AROUND 29740/29750 SUPPORT 1 29758

TGTS 29850/29950 SL 29640
SUPPORT 2 29694

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Analyst Speaks
Wednesday, 17th January 2018

CRUDE OIL MCX

Technically Crude Oil market is getting support at 4054 and below same
could see a test of 4023 levels and resistance is now likely to be seen at RESISTANCE 2 4159
4122, a move above could see prices testing 4159.
RESISTANCE 1 4122

PIVOT 4097

SELL CRUDE OIL JAN AROUND 4075/4080 SUPPORT 1 4054

TGTS 4045/4015 SL 4010 SUPPORT 2 4023

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Today’s Economic Events
Wednesday, 17th January 2018

COUNTRY TIME EVENT ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS

7:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 77.3% 77.1%

USD Industrial Production m/m 0.4% 0.2%

8:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 73 74

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24 Carat Commodity Research Team

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