Indicative Case Study

The Logon Project

After the signing the contract, the management at Midwest Parcel Distribution (MPD)
discovers that for many reasons it would be advantageous to complete the project in 40
weeks. It is too late for MPD to `require’ the contractor Iron Butterfly to complete it in
that time, but nonetheless a discusses the possibility with Iron Butterfly Company’s
project manger, Frank Wesley, Reviewing the network diagram (Figure 1.00), Frank
checks the feasibility of this and then asks his managers and technical staff to give him
three time estimates for every activity in the project. The estimates are given in Table 1.1

Fig 1.00

Logon Project

I N S U W

O
Y
H P

Z
K V X

J M R

L O Y
 Table 1.1

Time Estimates for LOGON Project

Activity  Optimistic  Most Likely  Pessimistic 
Duration  Duration  Duration 
(Weeks)  (Weeks)  (Weeks) 
H  10  10  10 
I  8  8  16 
J  1  6  6 
K  4  4  4 
L  2  2  2 
M  2  4  5 
N  4  4  10 
O  5  5  5 
P  5  5  5 
Q  5  5  5 
R  2  5  5 
S  3  3  6 
T  3  3  3 
U  1  1  2 
V  3  5  5 
W  2  2  8 
X  3  3  3 
Y  8  8  8 
Z  6  6  6 
QUESTIONS (The Logon Project)
1) Determine the most likely project duration.
2) What is the probability of finishing within 40 weeks?
3) Do you foresee any significant risk of a delay that the calculations for (1) and (2) above do
not take into account?
4) What is the applicability of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to this problem? Select one
answer from below and explain:
a. The CLT does not apply because Activity Z is dependent on Activity Y; Activity is
dependent on Activity W, and so on.
b. The CLT does not apply because human behavior is not taken into account.
c. The CLT does apply, provided that the duration of any activity does not influence the
duration of any other activity.
d. The CLT does not apply because the number of activities on the critical path is too
small.
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Source: Project management for Engineering, Business and Technology
- John M Nicholas & Herman Steyn (Fourth-Special Indian- Edition); Page 278
Faculty: Padmin Buch

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