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Mershon International Studies Review (1994) 38, 209-234
On the eve of the 1995 Review Conference for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty, issues of proliferation and counterproliferation are receiving more at-
tention than at any time since the initial production of nuclear arms in the mid-
1940s (Timerbey, et al., 1993). Much of the interest reflects concern about the
stability of the current non-proliferation regime. Indeed, indicators of the re-
gime's health are conflicting. Of the 188 countries in the world, only five are
acknowledged owners of nuclear weapons: United States, Russia, China, United
Kingdom, France. Three others-Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan-have
them in their territory, nominally under the control of the Commonwealth of
Independent States with a military headquarters in Moscow. Israel, Pakistan,
and India are also widely believed to possess nuclear weapons (Blackwell and
Carnesale, 1994; Chelleney, 1993; Grinter, 1994). South Africa declared that it
once possessed nuclear weapons but has since dismantled the technology and
the bombs; thus South Africa is the first state to return from a nuclear to a non-
nuclear status (De Villers, Fardine, and Reiss, 1993; Howlett and Simpson,
1993).
As in South Africa, the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine have all
promised to abandon their nuclear arms, although the Ukrainian parliament
may block that country's disarmament (Lockwood, 1993b). Such an action could
have a significant impact on the 1995 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review
Conference, as Ukraine would remain the third largest nuclear weapons power
if it kept the weapons and it alone among the newly emerging nuclear powers
? 1994 The Mershon Center at the Ohio State University.
Published by Blackwell Publishers, 238 Main Street, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA, and 108 Cowley Road, Oxford 0X4
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210 Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation
could inflict massive destruction on the U.S. (Dunn, 1994). All others pose only
a regional or distant future strategic threat to the United States.
The news in Latin America is less ambiguous. Argentina and Brazil have both
made significant progress toward a future nuclear weapons capability. Both,
however, have agreed to cease work on their weapons programs, are adhering
to the Latin American Nuclear-Free Zone regime, and have adopted full Inter-
national Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.
On the other hand, in Northeast Asia, North Korea (DPRK) may have already
acquired a nuclear weapons capability (Arms Control Association [ACA], 1992).
Even if it has not, the current director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency,
James Woolsey (1993), has testified that DPRK probably has enough special
nuclear material to build at least two nuclear bombs (Engelberg and Gordon,
1993). In effect, it is not clear whether the DPRK is just short of the nuclear
threshold or just beyond it (Bracken, 1993). North Korea is the only state, so
far, that has attempted to withdraw from the NPT after it joined as a member
(Leopold, 1993).
In North Africa and the Middle East, several states appear to be interested
in nuclear arms. Libya, lacking the necessary expertise and technology, never-
theless has oil revenues and has reportedly attempted to purchase nuclear
weapons on the black market in the past (Timmerman, 1992; Weissman and
Krosney, 1981). Algeria and Syria currently have some nuclear potential but do
not yet appear close to developing atomic arms. Iran is reported to be pursuing
nuclear weapons, but the program, if it exists, is out of view. Unconfirmed
rumors persist of Iranian attempts to purchase nuclear weapons from Kazakhs-
tan, although these are officially denied in Teheran (Reuters, 1992b).
Finally, Iraq had a very substantial nuclear weapons effort uncovered by
United Nations and IAEA inspectors after its defeat in the Gulf War (Davis and
Donnelly, 1991; Keaney and Cohen, 1992; Zimmerman, 1993a). Despite an
extensive investigation, dismantling, and removal program conducted by the
U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM) and IAEA inspection teams, Iraq is still
a future nuclear threat (Alessi, 1991; Zifferero, 1993). It has resisted inspection
efforts through deception, delaying tactics, misinformation, and temporary
physical intimidation of inspectors (Albright and Hibbs, 1991a; Bailey, 1993;
Ekeus, 1992; Kay, 1992; Trevan, 1993). Clearly Iraq's program ought to be
closely monitored for a long period (Newlin, 1992; Thorne, 1992).
These contrasting trends and unsettled conditions have spawned not only a
growing debate about proliferation policy but also a substantial diversity in
theoretical approaches to nuclear proliferation. This review focuses on selected
non-proliferation issues and key debates in order to provide a framework for
analyzing current theory and policy regarding proliferation and counterproli-
feration. The review concludes by identifying promising avenues for future
research with the intention of improving both policy and theory in this area.
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BARRY R. SCHNEIDER 211
Is ProliferationInevitable.
Yes No
War will be deterred in all regions where rivals possess such weapons. The
proliferation optimists think that even if proliferation is unstoppable, the worst
outcomes can be avoided through concerted intelligent actions. In other words,
while we cannot halt nuclear proliferation altogether, we can manage the prob-
lem by arranging outcomes that prevent the worst case scenarios. Proliferation
pessimists are the most fatalistic among those who believe that nuclear prolif-
eration is inevitable. They believe that it cannot be managed successfully and
predict the eventual use of nuclear weapons with catastrophic results. These
scholars and decision makers argue that we are moving toward living in the
midst of a "nuclear-armed crowd" and there is nothing we can do about it.
There are also experts who do not accept the inevitability of nuclear prolif-
eration. The non-proliferation optimists actually believe that proliferation can
be halted and rolled back if the proper steps are taken. It is their contention
that present non-nuclear states can be persuaded to abstain from developing
nuclear weapons and that states presently in possession of nuclear weapons can
be convinced to disarm. These experts push for an all-out "winning" strategy.
The selectivists, on the other hand, see two types of nuclear states, and differ-
entiate between good and bad proliferation. These scholars and policy makers
favor preventing or punishing proliferation only if it involves rogue states that
have shown themselves to be international aggressors or terrorist supporters.
They focus on what they perceive as "stabilizing" and "destabilizing" prolifera-
tion. Lastly, there are the universalists who oppose all further proliferation and
advocate the use of all possible means to enforce non-proliferation. Unless non-
proliferation is enforced, they argue, the world will become a nuclear disaster
area.
Let us examine each of these viewpoints in more detail, delineating who is in
each school of thought and what distinguishes each. It is enlightening to examine
the group of non-proliferation optimists first. They define the winning approach
to proliferation, and believe that nuclear proliferation can be stopped, perhaps
even reversed (Graham, 1991). Some (Rotblat, et al., 1993) even talk seriously
about moving toward a totally denuclearized world system.
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212 Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation
* France has agreed to sign the NPT after more than two decades of resistance.
* China has declared its willingness to sign the NPT.
* South Africa has abandoned its nuclear weapons program, dismantled the
seven nuclear weapons it had built, and signed the NPT.
* 163 states now are members of the NPT regime and the NPT has helped
create an international norm against the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
* Argentina and Brazil have agreed to comprehensive safeguards on their nu-
clear facilities and are taking steps to implement their adherence to the Treaty
of Tlatololco, thereby joining the Latin American Nuclear-Free Zone.
* Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan have signed the Lisbon Protocol, indicating
an intent to sign and ratify both the START I Treaty and the Non-Prolifer-
ation Treaty.
* The allied victory in Desert Storm led to the destruction of most, if not all,
Iraqi nuclear facilities and nuclear capabilities.
* For the first time in Iraq, the IAEA and U.N. Iraq-Kuwait Observations
Mission (UNIKOM) have successfully conducted challenge inspections against
a hostile state, setting a useful precedent.
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BARRY R. SCHNEIDER 213
Managing Non-Proliferation:ProliferationOptimists
The other more optimistic group with regard to nuclear proliferation, prolif-
eration optimists, perceives that the spread of nuclear weapons is inevitable but
they believe it can be managed. This management school of thought is dominant
among those who debate and formulate non-proliferation policy (Brito, et al.,
1983; Clausen, 1993; Dunn, 1991; Dunn and Giles, 1991; Giles, 1992; OTA,
1993; Payne, 1992; Roberts, 1993; Spector and Smith 1990).
Among international relations theorists, those embracing the realist school of
international relations, that is those who predict that states will seek to acquire
all appropriate power to solve their security dilemmas in an international system
characterized by self-help and anarchy, tend to favor the management approach
to non-proliferation which sees nuclear weapons acquisition as normal and
inevitable (Davis, 1993a, 1993b; Frankel, 1993). Zachary Davis (1993a:79) writes
that "classical realism provides a complete explanation for the causes of prolif-
eration and the international responses to it-non-proliferation." If it enhances
their power, nations will try to acquire nuclear weapons. Davis hedges this
argument, however, by saying that "the predictable reactions of other countries
may make nuclear status self-defeating." He notes that joining in non-prolifer-
ation regimes may be a way of enhancing security while abstaining from
weapons.
Neorealists, unlike realists, tend to emphasize the ability of states to transcend
immediate state interests for the common good. States thus ought to be capable
of abstaining from nuclear weapons if their neighbors also abstain. In short, a
state's net security payoff is greater if the region is without such weapons than
if all adversaries have them. Davis (1993a:79) asserts that realist theory does not
say that states blindly maximize power, regardless of the consequences. Rather,
in life and in realist theory, "power is not an end in itself; it is a means to serve
interests, the primary interest being survival. Realists understand that restraint
and cooperation can increase power and advance interests." Thus, realist theory
can also explain states following a non-proliferation policy and joining the NPT.
In effect, states seek to manage what is happening to insure their status and
power vis-a-vis their perceived rivals.
Some analysts (Dunn and Giles, 1991; Brito, et al., 1983) argue that the U.S.
government has pursued a management philosophy in implementing its supply-
side nuclear export controls. As Leventhal (1992a: 169) has written, "History will
. .. judge whether pressing trade issues with Japan warranted a U.S. decision
to enter into a nuclear trade agreement with Japan to recover from U.S.-supplied
nuclear fuel more plutonium than exists in all U.S. and Soviet nuclear weapons
combined." He concludes that "the premise underlying these policy decisions
has been that nuclear proliferation cannot be prevented, only managed, thereby
justifying weak or flexible nuclear export controls that give way to immediate
industrial and diplomatic imperatives." The new U.S. Department of Defense
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214 Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation
Pro-Proliferationistsand Selectivists
Two schools of thought on nuclear proliferation argue that some nuclear pro-
liferation may be good-the pro-proliferationists and the selectivists. The pro-
proliferationists see no reason to attempt to stop the spread of nuclear arms at
all because such weapons deter warfare and stabilize relationships. The selectiv-
ists wish only to stop proliferation by especially hostile states.
The classic brief for the pro-proliferation viewpoint was written by Kenneth
Waltz (1981) who argues that the spread of nuclear weapons would introduce
greater caution on the part of those dealing with nuclear rivals. In short, pro-
liferation would lead to deterrence between nuclear-armed rivals and would
instill greater maturity among those possessing the bomb. Waltz (1981:28-29)
emphasizes the role of nuclear weapons in maintaining international stability,
observing: "Never since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 . . . have great powers
enjoyed a longer peace than we have known since the Second World War." It
is this central fact that leads him (and other pro-proliferationsits like Van Evera,
1990/91) to the conclusion that more may be better in the spread of nuclear
weapons.
The selectivist viewpoint is relatively new and builds from, but moderates,
the pro-proliferation stance. The selectivists differentiate between destabilizing
and stabilizing proliferators. They would marshal international resources only
to fight the destabilizing cases, and not use international influence to retard
proliferation in cases where peace is better served by permitting additional
nuclear-armed states.
John Mearsheimer (1993) has made a case for a Ukrainian nuclear deterrent
to help stabilize that country's relationship with Russia, and to maintain its
independence and security. William Martel and William Pendley (1994) argue
for selectivity in U.S. non-proliferation policy. They urge the United States
government to seek to prevent radical hostile states like Iran and North Korea
from acquiring weapons of mass destruction, while not interfering with Ukraine
or Pakistan. The latter two states pose no threat to U.S. interests and act as
stabilizers, offsetting the power of regional rivals, Russia and India. These two
scholars argue for flexibility in addressing nuclear aspirants or threshold states
rather than treating them all like criminals if they have the audacity to try to
acquire the weapons the United States has possessed for almost fifty years.
Stephen Van Evera (1990/91) also proposes that controlled proliferation of
nuclear weapons to key states would have a stabilizing effect (Frankel, 1993).
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BARRY R. SCHNEIDER 215
Rather than apply sanctions against any new nuclear state or try to dissuade
them from taking the nuclear path, the selectivist school asks that each case be
addressed on its own merits. States that regularly engage in international ter-
rorism or initiate military operations against their neighbors should be prevented
from acquiring nuclear arms. States that are only looking to protect themselves
from a regional threat should be left alone and allowed to acquire a nuclear
deterrent. The selectivists would not automatically sanction all proliferators or
those who aid them. Moreover, they would seek a different type of international
non-proliferation regime that differentiated between stabilizing and destabiliz-
ing proliferators.
Both these perspectives can be criticized. The selectivist approach raises some
important questions: Why fix a system that isn't broken? Why endanger the
current international non-proliferation regime by introducing a case-by-case
approach to non-proliferation? Selectivists need to demonstrate how the type
of flexibility they advocate can become part of the present international non-
proliferation regime without undermining it. What are the implications of their
approach for the NPT? How can the international norm against nuclear prolif-
eration be preserved if it is suddenly acceptable for any state to produce nuclear
weapons providing its leadership is not hostile or aggressive? And what happens
if the friendly state that was permitted to acquire nuclear arms changes its
leadership, and the new regime turns hostile?
Taking on the pro-proliferationists, Michael Brecher and Jon Wilkenfeld
(1991) point out that the Cold War period was not especially peaceful; rather it
was filled with international crises and global instability. Bruce Russett (1983)
has taken Waltz and his colleagues to task for focusing on the probability of war
in a proliferated world rather than the destructiveness of such wars when they
occur. War in a proliferated world may be less frequent, as Waltz suggests, but
its outcome may be far more destructive.
Further, the pro-proliferation view ignores the possibility of nuclear weapons
coming into the hands of irrational, gambling, or very belligerent leaders. Waltz
is silent on the advantages of permitting a future Hitler to acquire weapons of
mass destruction. Indeed, he appears to view the personalities of world leaders
as irrelevant to international outcomes. Even U.S. leaders have sometimes con-
ceived of nuclear weapons as being more than just deterrents. Herken (1982)
documents a time in the 1950s when some U.S. leaders saw the A-bomb and
the H-bomb as the winning weapons, and useful for coercive threats to mold
international behavior.
Several propositions advanced by the pro-proliferationists seem questionable.
Logic may say, as Waltz does, that heavily armed neighbors should be deterred
from fights with each other, but does history bear this out? Indeed, in the
Middle East, even the acquisition of nuclear arms by Israel did not deter attacks
by its non-nuclear neighbors in 1967 and 1973 (Evron, 1984). The United States
and the Soviet Union did not fight directly during the Cold War, but the two
superpowers came dangerously close to nuclear war in Cuba, and Berlin and
fought continuously through proxies on three continents (Jervis and Bialer,
1991; Mearsheimer, 1990a, 1990b, 1990/91). In effect, deploying vulnerable
nuclear forces that can only be used in a first strike, or not at all, invites crisis
instability and preemption. Two such forces facing each other are particularly
dangerous, thus, not all proliferation leads to stability. Nor, as Russett (1983)
comments, is the argument convincing that possessing nuclear arms is neces-
sarily a sobering act that will induce caution. Would the addition of nuclear
weapons to an already aggressive regime not spur it to more aggression rather
than less? Is it a good idea to permit such demonstrably aggressive regimes to
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216 Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation
have more coercive capabilities against their neighbors, combined with a greater
ability to deter outside interference from third parties?
Universalistsand ProliferationPessimists
The last two perspectives on proliferation are the most pessimistic. Proliferation
pessimists do not welcome proliferation but feel that nothing, including arms
control efforts, will stop it effectively (e.g., Gray, 1993:145). According to this
view, the international system must learn to live with nuclear weapons as a part
of the political landscape. What the non-proliferation optimists see as successes,
these analysts perceive as merely short-term gains in what is a very bleak long-
run picture. The universalists are also pessimistic about what will happen as a
result of proliferation and believe all additional nuclear proliferation should be
opposed (Leonard and Scheinman, 1993; Sanders, 1990). People with this view
have invested heavily in seeing that the NPT is a reality. As an indication that
many in the world community share their perspective, they point to the fact
that the NPT now has 163 signatory states, 158 of which have sworn not to
acquire nuclear weapons and have put their facilities under IAEA safeguards.
In analyzing past, current, and future non-proliferation efforts, these are the
principal avenues upon which analysts have focused. Taken in combination,
these four types of activity encompass the components of what may be consid-
ered a complete non-proliferation policy. What may not work by one means
alone can perhaps be accomplished by applying another or by using more than
one in combination. Let us examine each of these in more detail and present
current debates with regard to each.
The Non-ProliferationRegime
The traditional view of nuclear proliferation is that it is a danger to international
security and stability, to be avoided if at all possible. Indeed, much diplomacy
and international organization has been mobilized to stop the spread of atomic
weapons (Fischer, 1992). As Hans Blix, the Director General of the IAEA, has
written:
There is almost universal support for the view that the world would be an even
more dangerous place if there were to be more nuclear weapons states. There
would be more fingers on more triggers and, probably, a greater risk that a
trigger might be pulled with incalculable consequences. It is easy to see, there-
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BARRY R. SCHNEIDER 217
fore, that there is a collective interest in avoiding the spread of nuclear weapons
to further countries (Pilat and Pendley, 1990:ix).
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218 Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation
Impact of an NPT Collapse. Dunn (1990b) believes that the collapse of the
NPT in 1995 would likely spur proliferation. He argues that without the NPT,
there would be nothing to serve as a legal barrier to acquiring or spreading
nuclear weapons or their components. There would be fewer states legally
required to apply IAEA safeguards to their nuclear facilities. In effect, the chief
international norm against proliferation would no longer exist. Moreover, the
demise of the NPT would create an atmosphere where there would be less
certainty about the nuclear weapons plans of neighboring countries, and a sense
that proliferation was no longer checked and was now unstoppable. As more
and more states acquired nuclear weapons, their neighbors and rivals would
also be driven to acquire them. A chain reaction might occur in regions where
such weapons were secured by a hostile local power. This scenario faced poli-
cymakers around the world when North Korea announced it was withdrawing
from the NPT in 1993 (Leopold, 1993), and much international pressure was
applied to Pyongyang until they reconsidered.
In the absence of the NPT, a new legal basis for controls on international
and national nuclear exports would be required since most of the export control
trigger lists are NPT-derived. Moreover, suppliers of nuclear technology would
have little encouragement to restrain exports if the non-proliferation game
appeared hopelessly lost. Such a climate would provide the advantage to the
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BARRY R. SCHNEIDER 219
export "hawks" in each supplier country in any national policy debate with non-
proliferation export-restriction-oriented "doves," particularly if profits were seen
to be sacrificed for no good non-proliferation reason. Without an NPT, states
with nuclear weapons would also be a lot less willing to disarm to face a world
where the future indicated the likelihood of more nuclear rivals.
Countering this rather bleak picture, some (e.g., Fischer, 1990; Pilat, 1990)
argue that if the NPT were to collapse, there would still be some significant
barriers to proliferation. At least four types of legal agreements would maintain
full IAEA safeguard coverage in many states and partial coverage in others.
These include: (1) EURATOM safeguards on its 12 members' nuclear facilities,
(2) Tlatololco safeguards on the 23 states in the Latin American Nuclear-Free
Zone; (3) national legislation in many states requiring IAEA safeguards within
their borders; and (4) existing country-to-country contracts that require recipi-
ents to put the technology and subsequent copies or transfers of it under IAEA
safeguards. Nevertheless, if the NPT was allowed to expire, it would probably
take several years even under the best circumstances to renegotiate a replace-
ment multinational pact regulating and attempting to stop nuclear weapons
proliferation.
IAEA: How Big A Role? The IAEA charter gave this international organiza-
tion the right to inspect the nuclear installations of countries that signed up as
recipients of training, facilities, and fissionable materials under the "Atoms for
Peace" Program (Blix, 1992). However, even though the IAEA has the right
under the NPT to inspect both declared and suspected sites, it has not fully
exercised the second right as a result of a more conservative approach to in-
spection and member state opposition to such invasions of sovereignty. This
approach prevailed until recently when the IAEA was turned loose to inspect
Iraqi installations at the end of the Gulf War (Chavistre, 1993). This unwilling-
ness or inability to take a more assertive approach to uncovering violations of
"Atoms for Peace" and NPT commitments has been a major criticism of the
IAEA (Scheinman, 1993). As Ashok Kapur (1990:126-27) wrote just before the
Gulf War: "The IAEA is doing an excellent safeguarding job in nuclear instal-
lations that are under safeguards. It is working well where it is needed least."
In fact, some analysts (Clausen, 1993) believe that the reluctance of the IAEA
to act has made the Atoms for Peace title a misnomer. They believe that the
program ought to have been named the "Atoms for War" program since it
provided much of the expertise that aspirant states need to design and build
nuclear weapons. David Fischer (1992:45) has observed that "looking back with
a jaundiced eye, it may seem that from 1953 until the mid-1970s the leading
nations of the West, with 'Atoms for Peace' in the van, deliberately set about to
teach each other and then the rest of the world the first, and sometimes all-but-
the-last steps, on the path to nuclear weapons."
Paul Levanthal (1992a, 1992b) argues that the IAEA policy-making process
has to be changed before the organization can become effective. Like Leonard
Spector (1992a), Levanthal would like the locus of IAEA decision-making power
to shift from the IAEA Board of Governors to the United Nations Security
Council-now that the Cold War is over and Security Council action is no longer
blocked by the automatic veto. He believes that the IAEA's conservative ap-
proach to inspections has reflected the influence of nuclear industry representatives
on the IAEA Board. Spector (1992a) and others (e.g., Davis and Donnelly,
1993a) have called for the IAEA to play a stronger role in the future, continuing
the short-notice, anywhere, anytime challenge inspections that proved possible
in Iraq after the Gulf War. Still others (e.g., Blix, 1992) believe that the current
IAEA inspection system already does much to track the location of, and thus
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220 Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation
Supply-SideNon-ProliferationActivities
Supply-side non-proliferation activities attempt to make it more difficult for
aspirants to acquire nuclear weapons by applying export controls to sensitive
technology, negotiating treaties and agreements to help inhibit the spread of
technology or the diversion of enriched uranium and plutonium, and imposing
sanctions against those developing such weapons or assisting aspirant states
(Wolfsthal, 1993b). The first supply-side nuclear non-proliferation effort was
undertaken at the inception of the Manhattan Project during World War II.
The United States placed strict controls on the disposition and dissemination of
information about nuclear weapons technology; it also closed atomic labs and
nuclear facilities to anyone without U.S. or U.K. security clearances.
The NPT requires exporting states to abstain from transferring key equip-
ment unless IAEA safeguards are part of the package to ensure that nuclear
technologies are not diverted to nuclear bomb programs. The Zangger Com-
mittee, a nuclear exporters' group formed by NPT members, lists nuclear tech-
nology items (e.g., equipment for fuel enrichment, reprocessing, and heavy
water production) that they mutually agree not to export. After India's sole
nuclear explosive test, the larger Nuclear Suppliers Group, which includes some
states that are not parties to the NPT, was formed in order to limit exports to
nuclear aspirant states more fully.
As Kathleen Bailey (1993) has pointed out, there have been a number of
problems in the implementation of export controls. Supplier membership in
the two groups is incomplete. Some countries that should be members are not,
such as Brazil, China, and India. Circumvention of export bans is easy and
common. Moreover, nuclear aspirants can often make their own weapons with-
out outside help. In effect, much of the equipment used to fabricate bomb
components is dual-use technology and thus hard to deny because its end
purpose is difficult to discern.
Policy Fluctuation in the U.S. and Other Supplier States. Possibly the biggest
problem with export controls is that they are too often ignored by governments
when more highly-valued foreign policy or economic goals come into conflict
with a tight non-proliferation regime. The United States government has fre-
quently lifted export controls in cases where dollars can be made or other goals
achieved. As Peter Clausen (1993) wrote, "the foreign policy dog typically wags
the non-proliferation tail." Indeed, there is currently a tug-of-war going on
between Department of Commerce export hawks and State Department non-
proliferation doves. As Zachary Davis (ACA, 1993:11) has concluded, "It seems
increasingly clear that the historical balance between export promotion and
export control is shifting toward promotion. Economic imperatives apparently
have tipped the balance away from national security considerations toward a
more liberal export policy."
The White House Fact Sheet on Non-Proliferation and Export Control Policy
(White House, 1993:27-28) states that the United States will streamline the
implementation of U.S. non-proliferation export controls, balancing the need
for more exports with the requirement to prevent "exports that would make a
material contribution to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction." Jon
Wolfsthal (1993a:22) notes that in line with this streamlining of policy, President
Clinton announced "sweeping changes" to ease the U.S. export controls on
computers and telecommunications technologies, allowing more high-speed
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BARRY R. SCHNEIDER 221
computers to be sold abroad. Still embargoed from such sales are Iran, Iraq,
Syria, Libya, and North Korea, but U.S. Department of Defense officials re-
portedly are concerned that these states might still acquire valuable adjuncts to
a nuclear weapons program via third parties legally positioned to buy them.
The concern is that supplier states may one day be threatened by the same
nuclear weapons that they are now helping other states to develop.
Beyond the reluctance of the traditional suppliers of nuclear technology to
enforce their own nuclear export rules at the expense of profits, a second
problem has compounded the quest to cut off dangerous technology transfers:
the emergence of a second tier of nuclear supplier states (Potter, 1992). In the
past, nuclear exports have been dominated by the United States, the Soviet
Union, Germany, and France. Now these suppliers have been joined by Argen-
tina, Brazil, China, India, Israel, Japan, Pakistan, South Africa, South Korea,
Spain, and Taiwan. The breakup of the Soviet Union into fifteen independent
states has also complicated nuclear export controls, since most of the Soviet
Union's experts, bureaucracy, and legal system were centered in Moscow. As a
result, fourteen non-Russian republics are starting their own crude export con-
trol systems from scratch without the benefit of experience or prior institutions.
One of these new states, Ukraine, has been particularly hostile to the idea of
putting export controls before export profits (Potter, 1993).
One method of dealing with the surplus of bomb-grade materials in the
former Soviet Union is what Booth (1992) calls the capitalist approach to non-
proliferation-buying the highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium to get
it off the street. In 1993, the United States initiated this approach by signing
an agreement to buy 500 tons of Russian bomb-grade material. Over the next
20 years, this plutonium will be blended with natural uranium for use in civilian
power reactors, a nuclear "swords into plowshares" program (see also Bukharin,
1993). This approach is being complemented by another program recently
initiated by the U.S. Government. The Clinton Administration is attempting to
negotiate a multilateral treaty aimed at banning further proliferation of bomb-
grade HEU or plutonium (ACA, 1993; Wolfsthall, 1993a:22).
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222 Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation
Demand-SideNon-ProliferationActivities
Demand-side non-proliferation policies aim at solving the problem of the spread
of nuclear arms by offering aspirant states a viable alternative to nuclear weapons
acquisition or assistance in managing the nuclear arms they already possess
(Roberts, 1993). Demand-side non-proliferation policy can take many guises. In
some areas of the world, where there are no nuclear weapons states at present,
nuclear-free zones may be the answer. Diplomatic activity soon may result in an
African Nuclear-Free Zone to forestall the reintroduction of nuclear weapons
into Africa (Wolfsthal, 1993c). Already, there are nuclear-free zones in Latin
America and in the South Pacific (Fischer, 1992). Another form of demand-side
nonproliferation is to expand alliances to include nuclear aspirant states and,
thereby, to help remove the security anxieties that feed interest in nuclear
weapons. Other types of assurances and guarantees can also help deter prolif-
eration. (For more detail, see Bunn and Timerbaev, 1993.) For example, con-
ventional arms sales or transfers can at times provide the needed sense of
security. Negotiation of non-aggression pacts and mutual no-first-use pledges
also help to reduce fear. Moreover, regional arms control and peace agreements
undercut the need to acquire nuclear weapons. In some cases, the threatened
withdrawal of alliance support can cause the ally to cancel or slow a national
nuclear weapons program. The United States worked to block the South Korean
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BARRY R. SCHNEIDER 223
nuclear weapons project by threatening to withdraw from its treaty with the
Republic of Korea if they persisted. The bomb project was shelved in the mid-
1970s to keep U.S. protection.
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224 Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation
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BARRY R. SCHNEIDER 225
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226 Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation
description of the criteria necessary for the United States to make such a
decision.)
Preemptive counter-proliferation (PCP) attacks have been launched in at least
six instances in the past. During World War II, the Allies bombed the Nazi
heavy-water plant in Norway and the U.S. bombed Japanese nuclear laborato-
ries. During the first week of the Iran-Iraq War, the Iranian Air Force unsuc-
cessfully bombed the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor (Snyder, 1983). Nine months
later, on June 7, 1981, the Israeli Air Force bombed and destroyed the Osirak
reactor in Iraq on orders from Menachim Begin (Hersh, 1991; Karsh and Rautsi,
1993; Perlmutter, 1987). At the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1987, the Iraqi Air
Force bombed and destroyed the Iranian Bushehr reactor (Hibbs, 1987). The
last time nuclear facilities came under military attack was in January 1991 when
the American-led coalition's air offensive struck but only partially destroyed
Iraq's nuclear, biological, chemical, and SCUD missile assets in the Desert Storm
operation (Keaney and Cohen, 1992).
In Desert Storm the allies found out just how hard it is to destroy nuclear,
biological, chemical, and missile assets from the air when intelligence is incom-
plete, even when air superiority is secured. Only after the coalition ground
forces occupied Iraq did the allies realize the dimensions of the Iraqi nuclear,
biological, chemical, and SCUD forces and infrastructure. The official U.S. Gulf
War Air Power Survey (GWAPS) observed that:
The Iraqi nuclear program was massive, for most practical purposes fiscally
unconstrained, closer to fielding a weapon, and less vulnerable to destruction
by precision bombing than Coalition air commanders and planners or U.S.
intelligence specialists realized before Desert Storm. The target list of 16 January
1991 contained two nuclear targets, but after the war, inspectors operating
under the United Nations Special Commission eventually uncovered more than
twenty sites involved in the Iraqi nuclear weapons program; sixteen of the sites
were described as "main facilities" (Keaney and Cohen, 1992).
GWAPS concluded that "the air campaign no more than inconvenienced Iraqi
plans to field nuclear weapons" (Keaney and Cohen, 1992:82). Important Iraqi
nuclear facilities remained untouched after 1,000 hours of coalition air strikes.
It was only after the total defeat of Iraqi forces and subsequent inspections that
the total size of the Iraqi nuclear effort came into focus. "We now know that
the Iraqi's program to amass enough enriched uranium to begin producing
atomic bombs was more extensive, more redundant, further along, and consid-
erably less vulnerable to air attack than was realized at the onset of Desert
Storm" (Keaney and Cohen, 1992:82).
Apparently the Iraqi regime learned from the destruction of their Osirak
nuclear reactor in 1981. Instead of again building a single, highly visible, state-
of-the-art nuclear reactor above ground, the Iraqis elected to pursue a clandes-
tine nuclear path complete with underground facilities and a Manhattan Project
first-generation technology using nuclear calutron electromagnetic separators.
They placed their facilities in diverse unmarked locations (Albright and Hibbs,
1992b; Bailey, 1993; Zimmerman, 1993a). Iraqi pursuit of calutron technology
was unexpected, since gas centrifuge technology is more efficient and widely
adopted elsewhere. Foreign intelligence assumed the Iraqi regime would opt
for available state-of-the-art technology and failed to look for the purchases that
brought the Iraqis the calutron components (Albright and Hibbs, 1992a).
Some experts (Albright and Hibbs, 1992b; Bailey, 1993: Woolsey, 1993) now
believe that Iraq was about four years away from its first nuclear weapons had
it not invaded Kuwait and brought defeat and occupation upon itself. The
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BARRY R. SCHNEIDER 227
Coalition's destruction of Iraqi nuclear assets has eliminated equipment that will
take two to six years to replace. If these estimates are accurate, given a free
hand by the world community, Iraq could have a nuclear weapon within six to
ten years of the Coalition's departure.
In the next regional conflict involving worldwide interests, the international
community may not be so fortunate. North Korea may be a case in point
(Mazzar, 1993). As one analyst observed, "A nuclear-armed North Korea would
constitute the long-feared nightmare of the international community; an over-
armed state in a desperate position with unstable decision-makers and poor
command and control" (Bracken, 1993:137). Yet, a preemptive attack, even if
it completely eliminated North Korean nuclear weapons, could easily lead to a
second Korean War. If unsuccessfull, a preemptive attack might subject the U.S.
and its allies to a nuclear reprisal as well as a war on the Korean Peninsula. An
appreciation of the extreme risks of U.S. preemption appear to have been
reflected in March 1994 statements by Administration officials (Pine, 1994). North
Korea's nuclear program and the threat they would pose to the area if armed
overtly with nuclear weapons could easily trip off a proliferation chain reaction,
leading in time to a nuclear-armed Japan and South Korea (ACA, 1993;
Bracken, 1993; Lehman, 1993).
The near-miss in Desert Storm and the threat posed by North Korea have
spurred U.S. leaders to set a higher priority on non-proliferation and counter-
proliferation policies, and to fund new research and acquisition programs to
understand, deter, and counter future proliferation. Ironically, a range of other
nations have drawn another conclusion from the experience of the 1990-91
Gulf War: no nation should tangle with the United States with purely conven-
tional forces (Wilson, 1993/94). As General K. Sundarji, Indian Army Chief of
Staff put it, "The lesson of Desert Storm is don't mess with the United States
without nuclear weapons."
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228 Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation
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BARRY R. SCHNEIDER 229
programs, that is, Argentina, Belarus, Brazil, Kazakhstan, South Africa, and
Ukraine? Can they reacquire such weapons in a matter of days or weeks, as
some analysts argue (e.g., Blix, 1992; Spector, 1992a), if they retain weapons
fabrication plants and secretly stored bomb material?
In conclusion, there are an estimated 40 states that are sufficiently advanced
technically to build nuclear weapons if given a few years and a national com-
mitment to proceed (Frankel, 1993). Dunn (1990a) has identified a subset of
these states that currently have decided not to acquire the bomb despite the
technical ability to do so. A detailed analysis of the abstainers, and how they
differ from those pushing to develop nuclear weapons, could prove invaluable
in helping to address all the issues described above. What are the differences
between these two types of states when considering such factors as national
ethos, political culture, national technical capabilities, political system, the do-
mestic political scene, and the psychology of the leadership (Davis and Frankel,
1993)? Do patterns emerge that might help us to understand whether prolif-
eration decisions are primarily the result of technical, political, military/security,
or idiosyncratic variables? Moreover, research could be directed at delineating
the perceived incentives and disincentives from the international arena that
helped to determine the decisions in these 40 states. This kind of comparative
case study analysis, whether done on individual cases, subsets of cases, or the
whole group of cases, would provide both the scholarly and policy communities
with a clearer picture of when, how, why, and which states are likely to go
nuclear or elect to remain without such arms. Better predictive theory and more
effective policy on proliferation and counterproliferation would be the result.
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