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2 Methodology
3 Key Findings
29 Cross-tabulation Report
METHODOLOGY
The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a 600 sample survey of likely November 2018 Michigan General Election voters. The live
operator telephone survey has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence. Data collection was conducted on
January 16-19, 2018. 65% of respondents were contacted via landline telephone. 35% of respondents were contacted via cell phone
telephone. This survey was commissioned by the Detroit News and WDIV Local 4.
[NOTE: All data collection for this survey was completed prior to congressional actions resulting in a shutdown of the federal
government.]
By a margin of 33.0%-54.0%, Michigan voters believe the nation is on the wrong track.
o Independent voters believe the nation is on the wrong track by a margin of 29.7%-51.0%.
By a margin of 41.0%-37.3%, Michigan voters believe the state is on the right track.
o Independent voters believe Michigan is on the right track by a margin of 40.7%-33.1%.
Generic Ballot Test and Motivation to Vote: The Reinvigoration of the Center
Voters were asked if the election were held today, would they generally vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic
candidate for State Representative. By a margin of 41.8%-31.0%, voters would choose the Democratic candidate. Democrats
have a 10.8% advantage right now in the generic ballot test.
o Independent voters currently give the generic Democratic candidate a 9.6% advantage over the Republican candidate.
o In mid-October 2016, Independent voters gave the generic Republican candidate a 6.1% advantage at 29.0%-22.9%.
o There has been a shift among Independents on the generic ballot test of 15.7% since October 2016.
While Metro Detroit Independents favor the Democrats by a 7.3% margin, outstate Independents favor the
Democrats by a 11.8% margin.
o Men lean toward the Democratic candidate by 5.2%. But women lean toward the Democratic candidate by 16.1%.
o Outstate female voters choose the generic Republican candidate by a margin of 40.7%-32.7%.
o But Metro Detroit female voters choose the Democratic candidate by a margin of 17.3%-55.6% -- a 38.3% Democratic
advantage.
70% of likely voters are definitely going to vote compared to 30.0% who say they are probably going to vote. The chart
below looks at the highest percentages that say they are DEFINITELY going to vote by party. A higher percentage of
Independent voters say they will definitely vote than Republican voters.
A second gauge is how motivated voters are on a 1-10 scale to vote. (The higher the score, the higher the motivation to vote.)
Overall, voters score an 8.9 in their motivation to vote – the highest level of overall motivation we have seen since. And this
level of motivation is 10 months before the election.
The chart below compares motivation to vote by party affiliation for the previous three elections, as compared to the current
climate. While the bases of each party are highly motivated to vote, what is most striking is that the MIDDLE is as highly
motivated to vote as the bases of each party.
The current climate marks the reinvigoration of the center’s motivation to vote.
Michigan voters have a sharply unfavorable view of Donald Trump by a margin of 34.8% favorable-55.8% unfavorable.
o Independent voters have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump by a margin of 28.3% favorable to 49.7% unfavorable.
o While men have an unfavorable view by a margin of 41.7%-50.3%, women have an unfavorable view of Donald
Trump by a margin of 28.5%-60.9% -- a 32.4% difference.
Michigan voters disapprove of President Trump’s job performance by a margin of 39.5% approve to 54.3% disapprove.
o While 22.3% strongly approve of his performance, 47.3% of Michigan voters STRONGLY disapprove of his
performance.
o Men are split on Donald Trump’s performance with 46.5% approving and 47.2% disapproving.
Outstate women disapprove of his performance by a margin of 44.0%-48.0%. But Metro Detroit women
disapprove of his performance by a margin of 22.8%-72.2% -- with 66.0% of Metro Detroit women
STRONGLY DISAPPROVING of the President’s performance.
When asked to give President Trump a grade, 38.5% of voters give him an F while only 13.5% of voters give him an A.
o 33.7% of voters give President Trump and A or B. 51.7% of voters give President Trump a D or F.
Voters were asked if they approve or disapprove of the President’s performance on three key areas: the economy, health care,
and foreign affairs.
o By a margin of 49.0%-39.8%, Michigan voters approve of the job President Trump is doing on the economy.
o By a margin of 33.3% approve to 38.8% disapprove, Michigan voters narrowly disapprove of the recently enacted
federal tax law. While 18.8% strongly approve of the new law 31.8% strongly disapprove of the new law.
Strong Democratic voters disapprove of the new tax law by a margin of 7.9%-72.7%
Strong Republican voters approve of the new tax law by a margin of 74.8%- 5.4%. 47.3% strongly approve
while 27.5% somewhat approve.
Independent voters disapprove of the President’s health care performance by a margin of 25.5%-54.4%.
o By a margin of 30.8%-63.3%, Michigan voters disapprove of the job the President is doing on foreign affairs. 53.8%
of voters strongly disapprove of his performance on foreign affairs.
Independent voters disapprove of the President’s foreign affairs performance by a margin of 24.9%-64.2%.
o When asked if President Trump had made American stronger, weaker or the same in the past year.
81.3% of Michigan voters saw and heard something about President Trump’s comments last week related to immigration about
Haiti and African nations.
19.0% of voters who heard something agreed with the President’s comments while 71.3% disagreed with the President’s
comments.
o While 49.2% of men believe the comments were racist, 42.7% did not believe the comments were racist.
o But 71.7% of women believe the comments were racist compared to 21.3% of women who said the comments were not
racist.
Voters were asked if President Trump was or was not qualified to be President. By a margin of 41.8%-54.0%, Michigan
voters say President Trump is not qualified to be President of the United States.
o 89.1% of Democratic voters believe he is not qualified. 90.1% of Republican voters believe he is qualified.
o But women strongly believe President Trump is not qualified to be President by a margin of 35.9%-59.6%.
Voters who said they vote primarily for Republican candidates were asked if they would consider themselves more a supporter
of the Republican Party or more of a supporter of Donald Trump.
41.2% of Republican voters consider themselves more a supporter of the Republican Party.
Outstate Republicans said they supported the Republican Party more than Donald Trump by a margin of 44.4%-43.5%. But
Metro Detroit Republicans said they supported Donald Trump more than the Republican Party by a margin of 50.6%-36.7%.
Michigan Statewide General Election Survey 8
January 2018
Glengariff Group, Inc.
Republicans over the age of 65 years old said they were more supporters of Donald Trump than the Republican Party by a
margin of 61.5%-23.1%.
Republicans with some post high education, but not a college degree, said they were supporters of Donald Trump more than
the Republican Party by a margin of 60.8%-25.5%.
o White voters are split on Rick Snyder by a margin of 41.1% favorable to 42.6% unfavorable. But Black voters have an
unfavorable impression by a margin of 12.0%-73.3%.
o Independent voters are narrowly split on Rick Snyder with 37.9% favorable to 42.8% unfavorable.
By a margin of 42.5%-42.0%, Michigan voters are split on whether they approve or disapprove of Rick Snyder job
performance. While 13.5% strongly approve, 25.5% strongly disapprove.
o The gender differences that apply to President Trump’s performance do not apply to Governor Snyder.
When asked if Michigan was better, worse or the same since Governor Snyder took office in 2011:
Among three of the Republican candidates for Governor, Bill Schuette has the strongest name identification.
o Bill Schuette has 61% name ID breaking 35.1% favorable to 1.5% unfavorable.
o Brian Calley has 42% name ID breaking 19.1% favorable to 4.6% unfavorable.
o Patrick Colbeck has 18% name ID breaking 3.1% favorable to 3.1% unfavorable.
Among some of the Democratic candidates for Governor, the top three contenders appear to be equally matched in name
identification – with none of the three being particularly well known at this stage.
Among Strong Democratic voters the three candidates are again equally matched in name ID.
o Gretchen Whitmer has 35.2% name ID breaking 18.8% favorable to 3.0% unfavorable.
o Abdul El-Sayed has 33.9% name ID breaking 15.2% favorable to 2.4% unfavorable.
o Shri Thenadar has 32.7% name ID breaking 15.2% favorable to 1.8% unfavorable.
In a head to head match up, Gretchen Whitmer holds a 40.3%-33.3% lead on Bill Schuette – an early lead of 7.0%, with 24.5%
of voters undecided.
o Whitmer leads among Strong Democrats 79.4%-3.6%. Schuette leads among Strong Republicans 87.1%-0.8%.
o But Whitmer leads among Independent voters by a margin of 32.4%-20.7%, with 43.4% undecided. Whitmer holds an
early 11.7% lead among Independent voters.
Whitmer holds a lead among out-state Independent voters by a margin of 34.2%-17.1%. She holds a lead
among Metro Detroit Independent voters by a margin of 30.4%-24.6%.
o But among women, Whitmer leads Schuette by a margin of 42.3%-28.8% with 27.6% undecided – a lead of 13.5%.
There are MAJOR differences between outstate and Metro Detroit women in the Governor’s race:
But Whitmer holds a substantial 49.4%-20.4% lead among Metro Detroit women – a lead of 29.0%.
In a head to head match up, Bill Schuette leads Abdul El-Sayed 37.5%-33.5% -- a lead of 4% for Bill Schuette, with 26.7%
undecided.
o El-Sayed leads among Strong Democrats 75.7%-3.6%. Schuette leads among Strong Republicans 88.6%-1.6.%
o But Schuette leads among Independent voters by a margin of 30.3%-16.5%, a Schuette lead of 13.8%.
Schuette leads among out-state women 41.3%-26.0%. El Sayed leads among Metro Detroit women 43.2%-
24.7%.
Whitmer leads Schuette by 7% while El-Sayed trails by 4%. That is a 11- point difference in a general election matchup.
Whitmer and El-Sayed essentially bring in the same percentages among Strong Democratic voters. But several key differences
occur in a comparison of the two Democrats’ general election strengths:
o Whitmer beats Schuette among soft Democratic voters by a margin of 70.4%-8.0%. But El-Sayed only beats Schuette
among those same soft Democratic voters by a margin of 51.2%-18.2%.
o The most glaring difference is among Independents. Whitmer beats Schuette 32.4%-20.7%. But Schuette beats El-
Sayed among Independent voters by a margin of 30.3%-16.5%. There is a 25-point swing among Independent voters
when Whitmer is replaced with El-Sayed.
o While Whitmer and Schuette are tied at 38% among men. Schuette takes a nearly 11% lead on El-Sayed among men.
o While Whitmer leads Schuette by 13.5% among women, El Sayed holds only a 2% lead among women.
o The key difference is the middle gravitates toward Gretchen Whitmer over Bill Schuette while it does not naturally
move to Abdul El-Sayed.
US. Senator Debbie Stabenow has 91.4% name identification breaking 42.2% favorable to 30.3% unfavorable.
o While men narrowly have a favorable opinion of her by margin of 37.5%-35.1%, women overwhelmingly have a
favorable opinion of her by a margin of 46.5%-26.0%.
Both potential Republican opponents start at the same position in terms of name identification.
o Sandy Pensler has 13.5% name identification breaking 3.7% favorable to 2.3% unfavorable.
o John James has 13.2% name identification breaking 4.3% favorable to 1.5% unfavorable.
U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow holds wide leads against both of her potential Republican challengers topping the important
50% mark in her re-election bid.
Stabenow holds a 14% lead among independent voters against both candidates.
Stabenow leads among men by 10 points. Stabenow leads among women by 30 points.
Voters were asked if they support or oppose a November ballot proposal that would legalize marijuana use for recreational
purposes. By a margin of 56.6%-36.7%, voters would currently support the proposal. Only 6.7% of voters are undecided on
the issue. [Note: There is no official ballot wording yet that can be tested.] These numbers are consistent with past numbers
on this issue.
o While 37.8% would strongly support the proposal, 29.0% would strongly oppose the proposal.
o Party affiliation appears to bear some influence as a predictor on this proposal. The chart below compares positions by
party affiliation:
The greatest indicator on a voters’ position, however, is based on whether or not they have smoked marijuana at some point in
their life. 47.5% of voters said they have tried marijuana. 48.8% of voters said they have not tried marijuana.
o Among voters that have tried marijuana, the proposal passed by a margin of 72.7%-22.8%.
o Among voters that have not tried marijuana, the proposal fails by a margin of 40.6%-51.5%.
Hello, my name is _______. I’m not selling anything. I’m doing a quick survey of opinions in our community. It should take about
five minutes.
1. Thinking about the upcoming general election in November, would you say you are definitely going to vote, probably going to
vote, probably not going to vote, or definitely not going to vote?
2. And what county do you currently live in? IF WAYNE, ASK: WOULD THAT BE IN THE CITY OF DETROIT OR
OUTSIDE OF THE CITY OF DETROIT?
4. Generally speaking, would you say the nation is on the right track or would you say things have gotten off on the wrong track?
5. Would you say Michigan is on the right track or would you say things have gotten off on the wrong track?
6. And what about the City of Detroit. Would you say Detroit is on the right track or would you say things have gotten off on
the wrong track?
7. Generally speaking, if the election for State Representative were held today would you vote for the [ROTATE] Republican
candidate or the Democratic candidate for State Representative?
20. If you were going to give Donald Trump a grade for his first year in office of A, B, C, D or F, what grade would you give him?
1. A 13.5% (81)
2. B 20.2% (121)
3. C 14.0% (84)
4. D 13.2% (79)
5. F 38.5% (231)
6. Don’t Know/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 0.7% (4)
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing on the economy? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY
APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing on foreign relations? ASK: WOULD THAT BE
STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
24. When it comes to the United States’ standing in the world, would you say Donald Trump has made American stronger, weaker
or would you say we are the same as we were a year ago?
26. Would you say Donald Trump is or is not qualified to be President of the United States?
27. Last week, President Trump made some comments about immigration related to Haiti, El Salvador and Africa. Have you seen
or heard anything about those comments?
28. And would you say you agree or disagree with his comments? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY AGREE/DISAGREE
OR JUST SOMEWHAT AGREE/DISAGREE?
30. Now, I want to focus on Michigan. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rick Snyder is doing as Governor of Michigan?
ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
31. Governor Snyder took office in 2011 and will leave office at the end of the year. Would you say that things in Michigan are
better, worse or about the same in Michigan as they were when he entered office?
33. If the election for Governor were held today and [ROTATE] Abdul El-Sayed was the Democratic candidate and Bill Schuette
was the Republican candidate, would you vote for Abdul El-Sayed or Bill Schuette to be Governor?
34. If the election for United States Senator were held today and [ROTATE] Debbie Stabenow was the Democratic candidate and
Sandy Pensler was the Republican candidate, would you vote for Debbie Stabenow or Sandy Pensler?
36. Michigan voters will likely face a proposal on the November ballot on whether or not the state should legalize marijuana use
for recreational purposes. Generally speaking, would you say you support or oppose Michigan legalizing marijuana for
recreational purposes? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST SOMEWHAT
SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
37. Do you think the legalization of marijuana question should be decided by the federal government or do you think every state
should be allowed to decide on its own?
39. Generally speaking, would you say you tend to vote mostly for Republican candidates, do you vote mostly for Democratic
candidates, or would you say that you vote equally for both Republican and Democratic candidates? IF VOTE EQUALLY
ASK: WOULD YOU SAY YOU LEAN MORE TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR MORE TO THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY, OR WOULD YOU SAY YOU ARE AN INDEPENDENT VOTER?
40. Would you consider yourself more a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party?
41. And on a scale of one to ten, with one being very low and ten being very high, how motivated are you to vote in next
November’s election? You can name any number from one to ten.
SCORE: 8.9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 DK/Ref
1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 4.8% 5.0% 6.3% 9.0% 8.3% 63.7% 0.2%
43. Could you please tell me in what year you were born?
Right Wrong
Outstate 38.2% 46.9%
Metro 28.2% 60.6%
Right Wrong
Outstate 41.7% 33.7%
Metro 40.4% 40.7%
Right Wrong
Outstate 35.4% 21.9%
Metro 64.7% 15.7%
GOP DEM
Outstate 38.2% 35.1%
Metro 24.4% 48.1%
A B C D F
Outstate 16.3% 24.3% 16.0% 13.5% 29.5%
Metro 10.9% 16.3% 12.2% 12.8% 46.8%
Yes No
Outstate 78.8% 21.2%
Metro 83.7% 16.3%
Yes No
Outstate 46.9% 50.0%
Metro 48.1% 47.8%
SCORE
Outstate 8.9
Metro 8.9
Male 8.9
Female 8.9
White 8.9
Black 8.9
18-29 8.4
30-39 8.5
40-49 9.0
50-64 9.2
65+ 9.2
High 8.5
Some Post 8.9
College 9.1