Sunteți pe pagina 1din 32

EXEMPLU - CALCUL CFD si criterii

investitie 10000
amortizata liniar in 5 ani
durata de exploatare 7 ani
pret vanzare investitie in an 300
CV/CA 60%
CF 1500
impozit 16%
durata ACN 9 zile
k 10%
(u.m. = mii lei)
anul 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
CA 500 10000 27000 36000 31000 24000 13000
-CV expl(60%) 300 6000 16200 21600 18600 14400 7800
-CF (1500) 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500
=EBE = -1300 2500 9300 12900 10900 8100 3700
EBITDA
-amortizare 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
=rezultat expl -3300 500 7300 10900 8900 8100 3700
= EBIT
=rezultat -3300 500 7300 10900 8900 8100 3700
impozabil
-impozit (16%) -528 80 1168 1744 1424 1296 592
=rezultat net -2772 420 6132 9156 7476 6804 3108
+amortizare 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 0 0
-DImob. 10000
-DACN(9zile) 12.5 237.5 425 225 -125 -175 -275
=CFD -10000 -784.5 2182.5 7707 10931 9601 6979 3383
CF dezinvestire (VR) 252
= CFD -10000 -784.5 2182.5 7707 10931 9601 6979 3635
CFD actualizat -10000 -713.182 1803.719 5790.383 7466.02 5961.466 3939.464 1865.33
CFD act cumulat -713.182 1090.537 6880.92 14346.94 20308.41 24247.87 26113.2
VAN 16113 mii lei
RIR 37%
TR 3.4178 ani

IP 2.6113
EXEMPLU - criterii selectie
k 10%
A B C D E F
0 -500 -1200 -300 -800 -600 -1000
1 120 600 -200 480 100 300
2 230 500 -350 400 220 300
3 360 450 760 360 340 300
4 160 50 400 200 310 300
5 150 380 -150 100 300
6 180 -200 50 300
VAN 178.93 325.66 309.08 167.99 230.22 306.58
clasament 5 1 2 6 4 3
RIR 24.29% 22.39% 24.56% 25.48% 22.63% 19.91%
clasament 3 5 2 1 4 6
IP 1.36 1.27 2.03 1.21 1.38 1.31
clasament 3 5 1 6 2 4

EXEMPLU - portofolii de investitii (neconcurente)


a) buget < 1500
portofoliul structura investitie VAN IP
1 A+C+E 1400 718.23 1.51
2 A+F 1500 485.51 1.32
3 B+C 1500 634.74 1.42
4 C+D 1100 477.07 1.43
5 C+E 900 539.30 1.60
6 C+F 1300 615.66 1.47
7 D+E 1400 398.21 1.28

b) buget < 1200


portofoliul structura investitie VAN IP
1 C+D 1100 477.07 1.43
2 C+E 900 539.30 1.60
EXEMPLU - cost annual echivalent

VNC 70000
pret vanzare 100000 proiecte
1
k 10% 2
Varianta 1 3
an 0 anii 1,..10 anii 11,..15 min
ch.investitie 400000 max
ch.operationale 1181000 1181000
amortizare 40000
economie fiscala 10000
costuri nete 400000 1171000 1181000
cost total actualizat 9321334
a(15) 7.60608
CAE 1225511

Varianta 2
an 0 anii 1,..10 anii 11,..15
ch.investitie 600000
ch.operationale 985000 985000
amortizare 60000
economie fiscala 9600
costuri nete 600000 975400 985000
cost total actualizat 8033000
a(15) 7.60608
CAE 1056129

Varianta 3
an 0 anii 1,..5 anii 6,..10 anii 11,..20
ch.investitie 2050000
venituri din vanzare 92500
ch.operationale 844000 844000 844000
venituri suplimentare 100000 100000 100000
amortizare 60% 120000 120000
amortizare 40% 40000 40000 40000
amortizare ch.personal 10000
economie fiscala 27200 25600 6400
costuri nete 1957500 716800 718400 737600
cost total actualizat 8113064
a(20) 8.513564
CAE 952957
VA(costuri) a(n) CAE
9,321,334 7.60608 1,225,511
8,033,000 7.60608 1,056,129
8,113,064 8.513564 952,957
952,957
1,225,511
EXEMPLU - mediu incert

Scenarii posibile
pesimist normal optimist
piata (mil.buc) 0.8 1 1.2 variatie 20% a fiecarei variabile
cota de piata 0.08 0.1 0.12
pret unitar 3000 3750 4500
CVM 3600 3000 2400
CF (mil.EURO) 36 30 24
cota de impozitare 16%
rata de actualizare 10% a(n) 6.144567
investitia 150
durata de viata 10 ani
amortizata liniar in 10 ani

Calcule indicatori - mediu cert


an 0 anii 1-10
investitia 150
CA 375
CV 300
CF 30 VAN 97.01 mil lei
amortizare 15 RIR 23.57%
profit brut 30 TR actualizat 4.90 ani
impozit 4.8 IP 1.65
profit net 25.2 prag contabil 225 mil lei 0.06
Cfgestiune = CFD 40.2 prag financiar 281.02 mil lei 0.07494
(mil lei)
anuitate = a(10) 6.14457
prag rentabilitate contabil 225mil.$
pozitie relativa fata de prag 66.67%
prag rentabilitate financiar 281mil.$
pozitie relativa fata de prag 33.44%

anii 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
CFD -150 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2
CFD act 36.55 33.22 30.20 27.46 24.96 22.69
CFD act cum 36.55 69.77 99.97 127.43 152.39 175.08
4.904266
analiza de sensibilitate
scenariul piata cota de piata pret unitar
normal pes opt pes opt pes
CA 375 300 450 300 450 300
CV 300 240 360 240 360 300
CF 30 30 30 30 30 30
amortizare 15 15 15 15 15 15
profit brut 30 15 45 15 45 -45
impozit 4.8 2.4 7.2 2.4 7.2 -7.2
profit net 25.2 12.6 37.8 12.6 37.8 -37.8
CFgestiune 40.2 27.6 52.8 27.6 52.8 -22.8
VAN 97.01 19.59 174.43 19.59 174.43 -290.10

matricea VAN

coeficient modul
pesimist normal optimist elasticitate elasticitate rank
piata 19.59 97.01 174.43 3.99 3.990324 4
cota de piata 19.59 97.01 174.43 3.99 3.990324 3
pret unitar -290.10 97.01 484.12 19.95 19.95162 1
CVM -212.67 97.01 406.70 -15.96 15.9613 2
CF 66.04 97.01 127.98 -1.60 1.59613 5

tehnica scenariilor
scenariu probabilit piata cota de pipret unitar CVM CF CFD
pesimist 25% 0.8 0.08 3000 3600 36 -60.10
de baza 50% 1 0.1 3750 3000 30.00 40.20
optimist 25% 1.2 0.12 4500 2400 24.00 236.26
medie 1 0.1 3750 3000 30 72.12
deviatie standard 0.2 0.02 750 600 6 150.73
coeficient de variatie 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.09

medie 293.15
sigma 926.19
CV 3.15947
95% interval de
incredere z=1.96 1.959964 = NORMSINV(97.5%)
limita superioara 2108
limita inferioara -1522
99% interval de
incredere z=2.58 2.575829 = NORMSINV(99.5%)
limita superioara 2679
limita inferioara -2093
probabilitatea ca
PN>0 62.42% = 1-NORMSDIST(-PN mediu/sigma PN)
rei variabile

mil buc
mil buc

7 8 9 10
40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2
20.63 18.75 17.05 15.50
195.71 214.46 231.51 247.01
pret unitar CVM CF
opt pes opt pes opt
450 375 375 375 375
300 360 240 300 300
30 30 30 36 24
15 15 15 15 15
105 -30 90 24 36
16.8 -4.8 14.4 3.84 5.76
88.2 -25.2 75.6 20.16 30.24
103.2 -10.2 90.6 35.16 45.24
484.12 -212.67 406.70 66.04 127.98

VAN VAN p
-519.26 -519.26 25%
60%
97.01 97.01 50%
1301.69 1301.69 25%
50%
293.15 293.15 0%
926.19 40%
3.16
30%

20%

10%

0%
-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500
20%

10%

0%
-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500
1500
1500
Simularea Monte Carlo

pesimist normal optimist


piata (mil.buc) 0.8 1 1.2
cota de piata 0.08 0.1 0.12
pret unitar 3000 3750 4500
CVM 3600 3000 2400
CF (mil.EURO) 36 30 24
cota de impozitare 0.16
rata de actualizare 0.1 a(n) 6.14
investitia 150
durata de viata 10 ani

numar simulari 250


E(VAN) = 134.9
σ(VAN) = 210.3 probabilitatea ca VAN>0
CV(VAN)= 1.559 73.93%

Distributia de probabilitate a VAN


propabilitati

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

VAN
medie 134.86
sigma 210.32
CV 1.55949

95% interval de
incredere z=1.96 1.95996
limita superioara 547
limita inferioara -277
99% interval de
incredere z=2.58 2.57583
limita superioara 677
limita inferioara -407
probabilitatea ca
PN>0 73.93%
min -171.33
medie stdev max 1018.05
piata 1 0.2 pas 24.2731
cota 0.1 0.02 VAN -171.33 -147.06 -123 -99 -74 -50
pret 3750 750 frecventa 1 6 10 23 31 42
CVM 3000 600 probabilitate 0.4% 2.0% 1.6% 5.3% 3.2% 4.5%

CF 30 6
preluate din calcule tehnica scenariilor

sau recalculate cf istoriei

= rand() simulate cf medie, stdev calculate


simulare piata cota dpret unitCVM CF CFD VAN
1 0.14 0.784 0.078 2940.27 2352.22 23.5222 13.009 -70.0656
2 0.20 0.83 0.083 3111 2488.77 24.8877 17.4634 -42.6947
3 0.68 1.096 0.11 4109.4 3287.52 32.8752 57.69 204.4802
4 0.27 0.875 0.088 3281.36 2625.09 26.2509 22.5587 -11.3866
5 0.32 0.908 0.091 3403.38 2722.7 27.227 26.6246 13.59665
6 0.40 0.952 0.095 3569.13 2855.3 28.553 32.7322 51.12518
7 0.53 1.013 0.101 3797.17 3037.73 30.3773 42.2903 109.8558
8 0.80 1.169 0.117 4383.09 3506.47 35.0647 73.5435 301.8928
9 0.46 0.981 0.098 3677.17 2941.74 29.4174 37.0898 77.90048
10 0.53 1.015 0.101 3805.4 3044.32 30.4432 42.6615 112.1363
11 0.41 0.954 0.095 3576.8 2861.44 28.6144 33.0317 52.96553
12 0.79 1.161 0.116 4354.67 3483.74 34.8374 71.7902 291.1198
13 0.03 0.617 0.062 2313.56 1850.85 18.5085 1.64697 -139.88
14 0.58 1.041 0.104 3905.35 3124.28 31.2428 47.3144 140.7264
15 0.19 0.827 0.083 3100.12 2480.1 24.801 17.1617 -44.5488
16 0.24 0.859 0.086 3221.83 2577.46 25.7746 20.7028 -22.7905
17 0.18 0.82 0.082 3076.31 2461 24.6105 16.5078 -48.5668
18 0.07 0.707 0.071 2650.17 2120.13 21.2013 6.8274 -108.049
19 0.72 1.117 0.112 4187.17 3349.74 33.4974 61.9642 230.7429
20 0.96 1.36 0.136 5099.55 4079.64 40.7964 126.563 627.675
21 0.69 1.099 0.11 4119.91 3295.93 32.9593 58.257 207.9641
22 0.16 0.8 0.08 2999.75 2399.8 23.998 14.4897 -60.9672
23 0.83 1.188 0.119 4455.48 3564.38 35.6438 78.1238 330.0367
24 0.19 0.828 0.083 3103.14 2482.51 24.8251 17.2456 -44.0335
25 0.01 0.512 0.051 1918.39 1534.71 15.3471 -2.0571 -162.64

26 0.12 0.762 0.076 2859.22 2287.38 22.8738 11.1108 -81.7288


27 0.84 1.203 0.12 4509.48 3607.58 36.0758 81.6497 351.7018
28 0.92 1.276 0.128 4786.38 3829.1 38.291 101.234 472.0409

29 0.84 1.196 0.12 4485.77 3588.61 35.8861 80.09 342.1186


30 0.45 0.977 0.098 3664.43 2931.54 29.3154 36.5598 74.64421
31 0.59 1.046 0.105 3921.09 3136.87 31.3687 48.0725 145.3848

32 0.06 0.696 0.07 2608.46 2086.77 20.8677 6.07422 -112.677


33 0.73 1.125 0.112 4217 3373.61 33.7361 63.652 241.1137
34 0.41 0.955 0.095 3579.4 2863.52 28.6352 33.1336 53.59172
35 0.63 1.064 0.106 3990.58 3192.47 31.9247 51.5032 166.4651
36 0.46 0.979 0.098 3672.83 2938.26 29.3826 36.9087 76.78787
37 0.29 0.887 0.089 3324.82 2659.86 26.5986 23.9659 -2.73969
38 0.15 0.79 0.079 2960.8 2368.64 23.6864 13.5114 -66.9782
39 0.63 1.066 0.107 3998.52 3198.81 31.9881 51.9037 168.9257
40 0.15 0.795 0.08 2981.58 2385.27 23.8527 14.0293 -63.7958
41 0.31 0.899 0.09 3370.15 2696.12 26.9612 25.482 6.575804
42 0.48 0.988 0.099 3706.71 2965.37 29.6537 38.3341 85.54632
43 0.78 1.154 0.115 4327.3 3461.84 34.6184 70.1253 280.8897
44 0.11 0.758 0.076 2841.64 2273.31 22.7331 10.7169 -84.149
45 0.71 1.111 0.111 4164.73 3331.79 33.3179 60.7124 223.0517
46 0.50 1 0.1 3752.61 3002.09 30.0209 40.3141 97.71275
47 0.38 0.939 0.094 3520.84 2816.67 28.1667 30.8816 39.75425
48 0.60 1.053 0.105 3948.91 3159.13 31.5913 49.4296 153.7238
49 0.86 1.215 0.121 4556.25 3645 36.45 84.7793 370.9322
50 0.29 0.888 0.089 3329.42 2663.54 26.6354 24.1177 -1.80716
51 0.31 0.902 0.09 3384 2707.23 27.0723 25.9563 9.490383
52 0.69 1.102 0.11 4131.34 3305.07 33.0507 58.8775 211.7767
53 0.29 0.89 0.089 3339.06 2671.25 26.7125 24.4368 0.153847
54 0.52 1.012 0.101 3793.23 3034.58 30.3458 42.1134 108.7685
55 0.80 1.169 0.117 4384.44 3507.56 35.0756 73.6275 302.4089
56 0.38 0.94 0.094 3526.17 2820.93 28.2093 31.0829 40.99105
57 0.71 1.113 0.111 4175.62 3340.5 33.405 61.318 226.7727
58 0.52 1.011 0.101 3790.4 3032.32 30.3232 41.9869 107.9912
59 0.13 0.774 0.077 2901.17 2320.94 23.2094 12.0762 -75.7967
60 0.22 0.845 0.085 3169.16 2535.33 25.3533 19.1291 -32.4599
61 0.57 1.033 0.103 3873.31 3098.65 30.9865 45.7928 131.3771
62 0.61 1.055 0.106 3957.76 3166.21 31.6621 49.8658 156.4036
63 0.01 0.548 0.055 2056.07 1644.86 16.4486 -1.0329 -156.347
64 0.20 0.835 0.083 3130.43 2504.34 25.0434 18.0122 -39.323
65 0.11 0.754 0.075 2827.93 2262.34 22.6234 10.4143 -86.0088
66 0.45 0.976 0.098 3658.79 2927 29.2703 36.3267 73.21209
67 0.90 1.261 0.126 4730.06 3784.05 37.8405 97.0433 446.2889
68 0.26 0.874 0.087 3276.66 2621.33 26.2133 22.409 -12.3061
69 0.60 1.051 0.105 3939.48 3151.59 31.5159 48.9673 150.8831
70 0.68 1.092 0.109 4095.57 3276.46 32.7646 56.949 199.9272
71 0.59 1.047 0.105 3924.76 3139.81 31.3981 48.2502 146.4765
72 0.58 1.041 0.104 3902.29 3121.83 31.2183 47.1677 139.8252
73 0.53 1.017 0.102 3815 3052 30.5199 43.0958 114.8049
74 0.59 1.047 0.105 3926.42 3141.14 31.4114 48.3311 146.9738
75 0.06 0.682 0.068 2558.31 2046.65 20.4665 5.21175 -117.976
76 0.46 0.978 0.098 3669.15 2935.32 29.3532 36.7558 75.84873
77 0.05 0.677 0.068 2540.56 2032.45 20.3245 4.91752 -119.784
78 0.36 0.931 0.093 3490.75 2792.6 27.926 29.7583 32.85205
79 0.97 1.387 0.139 5199.66 4159.73 41.5973 135.405 682.0063
80 0.15 0.796 0.08 2984.32 2387.46 23.8746 14.0982 -63.3724
81 0.43 0.965 0.097 3618.81 2895 28.9505 34.6983 63.2062
82 0.49 1 0.1 3733 2986.42 29.8642 39.4624 92.47912
83 0.99 1.472 0.147 5521.62 4417.3 44.173 166.411 872.5211
84 0.42 0.959 0.096 3597.91 2878.33 28.7833 33.8633 58.07519
85 0.03 0.625 0.063 2344.31 1875.45 18.7545 2.0381 -137.477
86 0.68 1.094 0.109 4100.67 3280.54 32.8054 57.2216 201.602
87 0.16 0.804 0.08 3015.21 2412.17 24.1217 14.887 -58.526
88 0.08 0.717 0.072 2688 2150.42 21.5042 7.53955 -103.673
89 0.18 0.814 0.081 3051.08 2440.86 24.4086 15.8285 -52.7407
90 0.00 0.465 0.046 1742.22 1393.77 13.9377 -2.9901 -168.373
91 0.44 0.971 0.097 3640.1 2912.08 29.1208 35.5605 68.50379
92 0.32 0.909 0.091 3406.9 2725.52 27.2552 26.7473 14.35056
93 0.53 1.017 0.102 3815.57 3052.46 30.5246 43.1222 114.9675
94 0.59 1.047 0.105 3927.35 3141.88 31.4188 48.3762 147.2507
95 0.56 1.032 0.103 3871.65 3097.32 30.9732 45.7146 130.8962
96 0.61 1.056 0.106 3959.57 3167.65 31.6765 49.9551 156.9523
97 0.37 0.934 0.093 3501.49 2801.19 28.0119 30.1568 35.30038
98 0.22 0.844 0.084 3166.27 2533 25.3301 19.0445 -32.9797
99 0.87 1.225 0.122 4593 3674.42 36.7442 87.2909 386.3649
100 0.02 0.579 0.058 2169.82 1735.86 17.3586 0.02324 -149.857
101 0.40 0.951 0.095 3566.14 2852.91 28.5291 32.616 50.41144
102 0.16 0.801 0.08 3003 2402.44 24.0244 14.5739 -60.4497
103 0.98 1.402 0.14 5258.41 4206.73 42.0673 140.768 714.9571
104 0.06 0.682 0.068 2558.86 2047.09 20.4709 5.22092 -117.92
105 0.81 1.175 0.118 4407.78 3526.22 35.2622 75.0868 311.3758
106 0.08 0.722 0.072 2706.21 2165 21.6497 7.89155 -101.51
107 0.05 0.669 0.067 2507.72 2006.18 20.0618 4.38824 -123.036
108 0.72 1.118 0.112 4191.91 3353.53 33.5353 62.2303 232.3782
109 0.84 1.202 0.12 4506.86 3605.49 36.0549 81.4765 350.6376
110 0.08 0.715 0.071 2680.14 2144.11 21.4411 7.38904 -104.598
111 0.57 1.035 0.104 3882.58 3106.06 31.0606 46.2299 134.0629
112 0.47 0.983 0.098 3687.85 2950.28 29.5028 37.537 80.64835
113 0.93 1.302 0.13 4880.93 3904.75 39.0475 108.517 516.7912
114 0.96 1.343 0.134 5035.56 4028.44 40.2844 121.103 594.125
115 0.73 1.122 0.112 4206.49 3365.19 33.6519 63.0536 237.4372
116 0.07 0.698 0.07 2616.46 2093.17 20.9317 6.21623 -111.804
117 0.94 1.315 0.131 4929.6 3943.68 39.4368 112.387 540.567
118 0.41 0.954 0.095 3577.9 2862.32 28.6232 33.0746 53.2293
119 0.27 0.878 0.088 3290.84 2632.68 26.3268 22.8619 -9.52346
120 0.99 1.508 0.151 5654.86 4523.89 45.2389 180.429 958.6569
121 0.37 0.934 0.093 3504 2803.19 28.0319 30.25 35.87319
122 0.61 1.054 0.105 3953.91 3163.12 31.6312 49.6755 155.2345
123 0.97 1.364 0.136 5115.94 4092.75 40.9275 127.985 636.4121
124 0.63 1.067 0.107 3999.71 3199.76 31.9976 51.9637 169.2947
125 0.02 0.587 0.059 2201.88 1761.5 17.615 0.35679 -147.808
126 0.46 0.982 0.098 3682.44 2946 29.4595 37.3099 79.25314
127 0.24 0.857 0.086 3214.86 2571.89 25.7189 20.491 -24.0918
128 0.54 1.021 0.102 3827.39 3061.91 30.6191 43.6615 118.2808
129 0.68 1.094 0.109 4100.75 3280.6 32.806 57.2259 201.6285
130 0.61 1.056 0.106 3961.87 3169.49 31.6949 50.0689 157.6517
131 0.41 0.956 0.096 3585 2868 28.6799 33.3526 54.93745
132 0.76 1.139 0.114 4270.59 3416.47 34.1647 66.7503 260.1518
133 0.26 0.871 0.087 3265.67 2612.54 26.1254 22.0615 -14.4417
134 0.19 0.823 0.082 3086.23 2469 24.6898 16.7787 -46.9024
135 0.21 0.836 0.084 3136.6 2509.28 25.0928 18.188 -38.2426
136 0.41 0.953 0.095 3573.07 2858.46 28.5846 32.8858 52.06897
137 0.36 0.926 0.093 3472.27 2777.82 27.7782 29.0798 28.68277
138 0.92 1.285 0.128 4817.46 3854 38.5397 103.594 486.5419
139 0.59 1.044 0.104 3914 3131.22 31.3122 47.7317 143.2909
140 0.82 1.181 0.118 4428.23 3542.59 35.4259 76.3802 319.3235
141 0.41 0.957 0.096 3586.92 2869.54 28.6954 33.429 55.40673
142 0.89 1.248 0.125 4680.55 3744.44 37.4444 93.447 424.1916
143 0.86 1.22 0.122 4576.25 3661 36.61 86.14 379.293
144 0.56 1.031 0.103 3866.38 3093.1 30.931 45.4672 129.3762
145 0.18 0.815 0.082 3056.88 2445.5 24.455 15.9834 -51.7887
146 1.00 1.531 0.153 5743 4594.39 45.9439 190.095 1018.051
147 0.50 1 0.1 3744.58 2995.67 29.9567 39.9637 95.55978
148 0.81 1.178 0.118 4416.2 3533 35.3296 75.6176 314.6372
149 0.85 1.208 0.121 4530.6 3624.48 36.2448 83.0544 360.3334
150 0.91 1.264 0.126 4738.36 3790.69 37.9069 97.6541 450.0421
151 0.72 1.119 0.112 4196.52 3357.21 33.5721 62.4899 233.9736
152 0.21 0.842 0.084 3157.35 2525.88 25.2588 18.785 -34.5741
153 0.25 0.867 0.087 3250.84 2600.67 26.0067 21.5967 -17.2977
154 0.54 1.019 0.102 3823.11 3058.49 30.5849 43.4659 117.0792
155 0.31 0.903 0.09 3384.85 2707.88 27.0788 25.9843 9.662002
156 0.53 1.016 0.102 3810.33 3048.26 30.4826 42.8843 113.5057
157 0.30 0.896 0.09 3360.12 2688.1 26.881 25.1422 4.487932
158 0.77 1.151 0.115 4314.63 3451.71 34.5171 69.3631 276.206
159 0.67 1.09 0.109 4086.6 3269.28 32.6928 56.4708 196.9883
160 0.79 1.162 0.116 4358.34 3486.67 34.8667 72.015 292.5008
161 0.23 0.849 0.085 3184.51 2547.61 25.4761 19.5812 -29.6819
162 0.55 1.026 0.103 3849.24 3079.39 30.7939 44.6682 124.4665
163 0.27 0.877 0.088 3289.54 2631.63 26.3163 22.82 -9.78104
164 0.73 1.124 0.112 4216 3372.83 33.7283 63.5968 240.7748
165 0.30 0.893 0.089 3349.37 2679.5 26.795 24.7808 2.267364
166 0.58 1.043 0.104 3909.38 3127.51 31.2751 47.5082 141.9171
167 0.35 0.926 0.093 3471 2776.82 27.7682 29.0344 28.4039
168 0.81 1.172 0.117 4395.53 3516.43 35.1643 74.3188 306.6566
169 0.77 1.15 0.115 4312.22 3449.78 34.4978 69.2185 275.318
170 0.52 1.01 0.101 3787.65 3030.12 30.3012 41.8636 107.2337
171 0.09 0.736 0.074 2761.35 2209.08 22.0908 8.99806 -94.7108
172 0.12 0.76 0.076 2851.85 2281.48 22.8148 10.9449 -82.7484
173 0.14 0.781 0.078 2927.45 2342 23.4196 12.6994 -71.9674
174 0.70 1.106 0.111 4147.86 3318.28 33.1828 59.781 217.3283
175 0.38 0.938 0.094 3517.13 2813.71 28.1371 30.7421 38.89675
176 0.91 1.264 0.126 4741.72 3793.38 37.9338 97.9019 451.5647
177 0.77 1.147 0.115 4300.55 3440.44 34.4044 68.5212 271.0332
178 0.65 1.078 0.108 4043.67 3234.93 32.3493 54.2166 183.1378
179 0.78 1.157 0.116 4336.88 3469.5 34.695 70.7056 284.455
180 0.77 1.147 0.115 4302.28 3441.83 34.4183 68.6243 271.6665
181 0.25 0.862 0.086 3233.15 2586.52 25.8652 21.0493 -20.6609
182 0.44 0.968 0.097 3629.73 2903.79 29.0379 35.1391 65.91458
183 0.88 1.233 0.123 4623.1 3698.48 36.9848 89.3776 399.1867
184 0.13 0.776 0.078 2909 2327.21 23.2721 12.2607 -74.6632
185 0.94 1.304 0.13 4889 3911.23 39.1123 109.155 520.713
186 0.62 1.06 0.106 3976.29 3181 31.8103 50.7866 162.0616
187 0.77 1.149 0.115 4309.41 3447.53 34.4753 69.05 274.2823
188 0.98 1.415 0.142 5308 4246.37 42.4637 145.392 743.3725
189 0.91 1.27 0.127 4763.59 3810.87 38.1087 99.5253 461.5397
190 0.83 1.193 0.119 4472.4 3577.92 35.7792 79.2189 336.7658
191 0.26 0.872 0.087 3268.72 2615 26.1497 22.1575 -13.8516
192 0.57 1.036 0.104 3884.06 3107.25 31.0725 46.3004 134.4956
193 0.75 1.133 0.113 4248.93 3399.15 33.9915 65.4875 252.3926
194 0.07 0.71 0.071 2663.71 2131 21.3096 7.07894 -106.503
195 0.00 0.425 0.043 1594.53 1275.62 12.7562 -3.4719 -171.333
196 0.27 0.88 0.088 3301.53 2641.22 26.4122 23.2061 -7.40837
197 0.97 1.382 0.138 5183.33 4146.67 41.4667 133.938 672.9885
198 0.40 0.948 0.095 3553.71 2843 28.4297 32.1349 47.45513
199 0.46 0.981 0.098 3676.93 2941.54 29.4154 37.0795 77.83721
200 0.55 1.024 0.102 3839.11 3071.29 30.7129 44.2001 121.5905
201 0.40 0.948 0.095 3556.24 2845 28.4499 32.2324 48.05403
202 0.70 1.103 0.11 4136.91 3309.52 33.0952 59.1811 213.6425
203 0.54 1.019 0.102 3819.47 3055.57 30.5557 43.2996 116.0571
204 0.45 0.977 0.098 3663.73 2931 29.3098 36.5309 74.46683
205 0.95 1.338 0.134 5019.11 4015.28 40.1528 119.723 585.6479
206 0.14 0.783 0.078 2934.89 2347.91 23.4791 12.8785 -70.867
207 0.33 0.912 0.091 3419 2735.21 27.3521 27.1714 16.95669
208 0.02 0.595 0.059 2231.12 1784.9 17.849 0.67524 -145.851
209 0.88 1.233 0.123 4624.12 3699.29 36.9929 89.4486 399.6228
210 0.84 1.195 0.119 4480.79 3584.63 35.8463 79.765 340.1214
211 0.30 0.897 0.09 3364.36 2691.49 26.9149 25.2855 5.368526
212 0.97 1.365 0.136 5118.27 4094.61 40.9461 128.188 637.6586
213 0.38 0.939 0.094 3522.8 2818.24 28.1824 30.9555 40.20841
214 0.53 1.015 0.101 3804.74 3043.79 30.4379 42.6313 111.9511
215 0.06 0.692 0.069 2594.41 2075.53 20.7553 5.82786 -114.19
216 0.09 0.726 0.073 2722.26 2177.81 21.7781 8.20747 -99.5686
217 0.66 1.08 0.108 4050.6 3240.48 32.4048 54.5771 185.3526
218 0.80 1.171 0.117 4390 3512 35.1199 73.9726 304.5294
219 0.81 1.178 0.118 4418.2 3534.56 35.3456 75.7445 315.417
220 0.61 1.058 0.106 3966.14 3172.91 31.7291 50.2809 158.9545
221 0.08 0.721 0.072 2704 2163.23 21.6323 7.84917 -101.77
222 0.88 1.234 0.123 4626.17 3700.93 37.0093 89.592 400.5042
223 0.39 0.945 0.094 3543.52 2834.82 28.3482 31.7435 45.04986
224 0.63 1.067 0.107 4001.25 3201 32.01 52.0421 169.7764
225 0.18 0.819 0.082 3073.11 2458.48 24.5848 16.4208 -49.1016
226 0.60 1.048 0.105 3930.93 3144.74 31.4474 48.5499 148.3182
227 0.52 1.009 0.101 3781.89 3025.51 30.2551 41.6065 105.654
228 0.21 0.838 0.084 3142.86 2514.28 25.1428 18.3669 -37.1436
229 0.67 1.088 0.109 4078.74 3263 32.6299 56.0544 194.4302
230 0.38 0.937 0.094 3514 2811.18 28.1118 30.6233 38.1668
231 0.72 1.115 0.112 4182.74 3346.19 33.4619 61.7157 229.2165
232 0.31 0.899 0.09 3370.27 2696.22 26.9622 25.4861 6.600922
233 0.57 1.034 0.103 3877.91 3102.33 31.0233 46.0097 132.7096
234 0.25 0.862 0.086 3233.64 2586.91 25.8691 21.0644 -20.5683
235 0.90 1.259 0.126 4721.73 3777.38 37.7738 96.4319 442.5323
236 0.54 1.018 0.102 3818.42 3054.73 30.5473 43.2518 115.7636
237 0.45 0.973 0.097 3647.76 2918.21 29.1821 35.8734 70.42657
238 0.96 1.341 0.134 5027.6 4022.08 40.2208 120.435 590.0195
239 0.19 0.828 0.083 3104.65 2483.72 24.8372 17.2875 -43.7761
240 0.27 0.875 0.088 3282.83 2626.26 26.2626 22.6053 -11.1002
241 0.72 1.116 0.112 4185.77 3348.62 33.4862 61.8857 230.2608
242 0.71 1.111 0.111 4165.61 3332.49 33.3249 60.7614 223.3523
243 0.74 1.127 0.113 4225.68 3380.54 33.8054 64.1471 244.1562
244 0.13 0.772 0.077 2896.34 2317.07 23.1707 11.9631 -76.4922
245 0.56 1.032 0.103 3868.95 3095.16 30.9516 45.5877 130.117
246 0.23 0.854 0.085 3201.42 2561.14 25.6114 20.0855 -26.5835
247 0.44 0.972 0.097 3644.19 2915.35 29.1535 35.7271 69.52778
248 0.25 0.867 0.087 3252.9 2602.32 26.0232 21.661 -16.9024
249 0.87 1.225 0.123 4595.58 3676.46 36.7646 87.4669 387.446
250 0.19 0.825 0.082 3092.19 2473.75 24.7375 16.9426 -45.8952

min 0.00 0.43 0.04 1594.53 1275.62 12.76 -3.47 -171.33


max 1.00 1.53 0.15 5742.99 4594.39 45.94 190.09 1018.05
medie 0.49 0.99 0.10 3729.81 2983.85 29.84 46.36 134.86
sigma 0.28 0.19 0.02 727.51 582.01 5.82 34.23 210.32
-26 -1.42 22.85 47.12 71.4 95.67 120 144 168 193 217 241 266 290 314 338
58 74 85 96 112 124 139 152 166 171 180 192 195 202 209 214
6.5% 6.5% 4.5% 4.5% 6.5% 4.9% 6.1% 5.3% 5.7% 2.0% 3.6% 4.9% 1.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.0%
363 387 411 435 460 484 508 533 557 581 605 630 654 678 702 727
219 222 226 227 231 233 234 236 237 237 240 241 243 244 245 246
2.0% 1.2% 1.6% 0.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
751 775 800 824 848 872.4117 896.6848 920.958 945.2311 969.5043 993.7774
247 247 247 247 247 247 248 248 248 249 249
0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
1018.051
247
-0.8%
Functii excel - simularea Monte Carlo

RAND
trial = rand() medie 0.516383
1 0.637015 mediana 0.49951
2 0.1362419 min 0.005559
3 0.1539523 max 0.997834
4 0.9500591
5 0.9951734 cuartile frecv probab
6 0.909101 0-.25 15 0.3
7 0.8395193 .25-.50 10 0.2
8 0.6542331 .5-.75 9 0.18
9 0.2207383 .75-1 16 0.32
10 0.1944898 50 1
11 0.5941345
12 0.9565525
13 0.8346702
14 0.5021132
15 0.4969078
16 0.3830551
17 0.6269567
18 0.3905385
19 0.2273961
20 0.7253315
21 0.8538688
22 0.8272317
23 0.8889695
24 0.096516
25 0.1253498
26 0.1288469
27 0.0438088
28 0.0201591
29 0.9978345
30 0.3424292
31 0.1632198
32 0.482841
33 0.5278699
34 0.1067188
35 0.2821965
36 0.2998331
37 0.9767942
38 0.2345472
39 0.5579603
40 0.0055595
41 0.8314876
42 0.4547726
43 0.4672606
44 0.9332056
45 0.066361
46 0.7801217
47 0.3205773
48 0.6050612
49 0.9805602
50 0.9889841

SIMULAREA UNEI VARIABILE ALEATOARE DISCRETE

cererea probabilitat numar aleator min max


10000 10% <0.1 0% 10%
20000 35% >=0.1, <0.45 10% 45%
40000 30%>=0.45, <0.75 45% 75%
60000 25% >=0.75 75% 100%

trial = rand() = cererea praguri (cut offs)


1 0.2509432 20000
2 0.8868854 60000 cererea frecventa
3 0.0045216 10000 0% 10000 4
4 0.7490081 40000 10% 20000 15
5 0.3301551 20000 45% 40000 17
6 0.4244567 20000 75% 60000 14
7 0.5313423 40000 50
8 0.7156877 40000
9 0.0596023 10000
10 0.8866139 60000
11 0.1567523 20000
12 0.7600649 60000
13 0.9155937 60000
14 0.4912883 40000
15 0.3794379 20000
16 0.0964579 10000
17 0.8648575 60000
18 0.3710713 20000
19 0.9522548 60000
20 0.6253188 40000
21 0.098531 10000
22 0.8990914 60000
23 0.6656027 40000
24 0.6952412 40000
25 0.4222482 20000
26 0.4414312 20000
27 0.7094063 40000
28 0.4650186 40000
29 0.1486411 20000
30 0.4705914 40000
31 0.5742145 40000
32 0.7438865 40000
33 0.7251762 40000
34 0.9636232 60000
35 0.9068228 60000
36 0.8714147 60000
37 0.361731 20000
38 0.7872619 60000
39 0.395471 20000
40 0.9835057 60000
41 0.7483615 40000
42 0.5072709 40000
43 0.1126237 20000
44 0.3313994 20000
45 0.9213703 60000
46 0.7362679 40000
47 0.420904 20000
48 0.3213876 20000
49 0.6052041 40000
50 0.9366789 60000

SIMULAREA UNEI VARIABILE ALEATOARE NORMALE

medie 40000
sigma 10000

trial rand normal r.v. simulare


1 0.7000396 45245.145 medie 40294.09
2 0.1383035 29120.269 sigma 10077
3 0.0277184 20845.6378
4 0.8998305 52805.8612
5 0.1540246 29806.7607
6 0.8873438 52125.227
7 0.9697316 58768.6307
8 0.7100487 45535.2686
9 0.4432564 38572.8175
10 0.3364714 35778.8729
11 0.6551267 43991.9903
12 0.1989129 31544.8934
13 0.0896841 26572.9736
14 0.3431607 35961.4774
15 0.7709937 47421.2335
16 0.0443219 22974.0485
17 0.6559417 44014.1217
18 0.7237326 45939.6609
19 0.9041258 53054.2411
20 0.9820889 60989.3877
21 0.1748127 30646.8372
22 0.5350039 40878.5473
23 0.5012907 40032.3533
24 0.0681861 25105.6274
25 0.6741296 44513.4517
26 0.7159308 45707.9541
27 0.3771057 36869.0886
28 0.5827257 42088.7147
29 0.6151729 42928.2722
30 0.0549862 24016.8316
31 0.4537812 38838.8624
32 0.7363196 46320.3993
33 0.9303493 54783.9767
34 0.187153 31115.6362
35 0.5330307 40828.9055
36 0.5840252 42122.0188
37 0.2280621 32547.5601
38 0.2101076 31939.5212
39 0.7226067 45906.0293
40 0.3164205 35222.6813
41 0.4019555 37517.1124
42 0.2408543 32964.4291
43 0.4556035 38884.8371
44 0.8818285 51841.7689
45 0.7719247 47452.0052
46 0.2735539 33979.0034
47 0.9638152 57967.8614
48 0.8293135 49514.5584
49 0.025595 20501.1713
50 0.8554285 50600.0369
probabilitate
0.08
0.3
0.34
0.28
1