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investitie 10000
amortizata liniar in 5 ani
durata de exploatare 7 ani
pret vanzare investitie in an 300
CV/CA 60%
CF 1500
impozit 16%
durata ACN 9 zile
k 10%
(u.m. = mii lei)
anul 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
CA 500 10000 27000 36000 31000 24000 13000
-CV expl(60%) 300 6000 16200 21600 18600 14400 7800
-CF (1500) 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500
=EBE = -1300 2500 9300 12900 10900 8100 3700
EBITDA
-amortizare 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
=rezultat expl -3300 500 7300 10900 8900 8100 3700
= EBIT
=rezultat -3300 500 7300 10900 8900 8100 3700
impozabil
-impozit (16%) -528 80 1168 1744 1424 1296 592
=rezultat net -2772 420 6132 9156 7476 6804 3108
+amortizare 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 0 0
-DImob. 10000
-DACN(9zile) 12.5 237.5 425 225 -125 -175 -275
=CFD -10000 -784.5 2182.5 7707 10931 9601 6979 3383
CF dezinvestire (VR) 252
= CFD -10000 -784.5 2182.5 7707 10931 9601 6979 3635
CFD actualizat -10000 -713.182 1803.719 5790.383 7466.02 5961.466 3939.464 1865.33
CFD act cumulat -713.182 1090.537 6880.92 14346.94 20308.41 24247.87 26113.2
VAN 16113 mii lei
RIR 37%
TR 3.4178 ani
IP 2.6113
EXEMPLU - criterii selectie
k 10%
A B C D E F
0 -500 -1200 -300 -800 -600 -1000
1 120 600 -200 480 100 300
2 230 500 -350 400 220 300
3 360 450 760 360 340 300
4 160 50 400 200 310 300
5 150 380 -150 100 300
6 180 -200 50 300
VAN 178.93 325.66 309.08 167.99 230.22 306.58
clasament 5 1 2 6 4 3
RIR 24.29% 22.39% 24.56% 25.48% 22.63% 19.91%
clasament 3 5 2 1 4 6
IP 1.36 1.27 2.03 1.21 1.38 1.31
clasament 3 5 1 6 2 4
VNC 70000
pret vanzare 100000 proiecte
1
k 10% 2
Varianta 1 3
an 0 anii 1,..10 anii 11,..15 min
ch.investitie 400000 max
ch.operationale 1181000 1181000
amortizare 40000
economie fiscala 10000
costuri nete 400000 1171000 1181000
cost total actualizat 9321334
a(15) 7.60608
CAE 1225511
Varianta 2
an 0 anii 1,..10 anii 11,..15
ch.investitie 600000
ch.operationale 985000 985000
amortizare 60000
economie fiscala 9600
costuri nete 600000 975400 985000
cost total actualizat 8033000
a(15) 7.60608
CAE 1056129
Varianta 3
an 0 anii 1,..5 anii 6,..10 anii 11,..20
ch.investitie 2050000
venituri din vanzare 92500
ch.operationale 844000 844000 844000
venituri suplimentare 100000 100000 100000
amortizare 60% 120000 120000
amortizare 40% 40000 40000 40000
amortizare ch.personal 10000
economie fiscala 27200 25600 6400
costuri nete 1957500 716800 718400 737600
cost total actualizat 8113064
a(20) 8.513564
CAE 952957
VA(costuri) a(n) CAE
9,321,334 7.60608 1,225,511
8,033,000 7.60608 1,056,129
8,113,064 8.513564 952,957
952,957
1,225,511
EXEMPLU - mediu incert
Scenarii posibile
pesimist normal optimist
piata (mil.buc) 0.8 1 1.2 variatie 20% a fiecarei variabile
cota de piata 0.08 0.1 0.12
pret unitar 3000 3750 4500
CVM 3600 3000 2400
CF (mil.EURO) 36 30 24
cota de impozitare 16%
rata de actualizare 10% a(n) 6.144567
investitia 150
durata de viata 10 ani
amortizata liniar in 10 ani
anii 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
CFD -150 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2
CFD act 36.55 33.22 30.20 27.46 24.96 22.69
CFD act cum 36.55 69.77 99.97 127.43 152.39 175.08
4.904266
analiza de sensibilitate
scenariul piata cota de piata pret unitar
normal pes opt pes opt pes
CA 375 300 450 300 450 300
CV 300 240 360 240 360 300
CF 30 30 30 30 30 30
amortizare 15 15 15 15 15 15
profit brut 30 15 45 15 45 -45
impozit 4.8 2.4 7.2 2.4 7.2 -7.2
profit net 25.2 12.6 37.8 12.6 37.8 -37.8
CFgestiune 40.2 27.6 52.8 27.6 52.8 -22.8
VAN 97.01 19.59 174.43 19.59 174.43 -290.10
matricea VAN
coeficient modul
pesimist normal optimist elasticitate elasticitate rank
piata 19.59 97.01 174.43 3.99 3.990324 4
cota de piata 19.59 97.01 174.43 3.99 3.990324 3
pret unitar -290.10 97.01 484.12 19.95 19.95162 1
CVM -212.67 97.01 406.70 -15.96 15.9613 2
CF 66.04 97.01 127.98 -1.60 1.59613 5
tehnica scenariilor
scenariu probabilit piata cota de pipret unitar CVM CF CFD
pesimist 25% 0.8 0.08 3000 3600 36 -60.10
de baza 50% 1 0.1 3750 3000 30.00 40.20
optimist 25% 1.2 0.12 4500 2400 24.00 236.26
medie 1 0.1 3750 3000 30 72.12
deviatie standard 0.2 0.02 750 600 6 150.73
coeficient de variatie 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.09
medie 293.15
sigma 926.19
CV 3.15947
95% interval de
incredere z=1.96 1.959964 = NORMSINV(97.5%)
limita superioara 2108
limita inferioara -1522
99% interval de
incredere z=2.58 2.575829 = NORMSINV(99.5%)
limita superioara 2679
limita inferioara -2093
probabilitatea ca
PN>0 62.42% = 1-NORMSDIST(-PN mediu/sigma PN)
rei variabile
mil buc
mil buc
7 8 9 10
40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2
20.63 18.75 17.05 15.50
195.71 214.46 231.51 247.01
pret unitar CVM CF
opt pes opt pes opt
450 375 375 375 375
300 360 240 300 300
30 30 30 36 24
15 15 15 15 15
105 -30 90 24 36
16.8 -4.8 14.4 3.84 5.76
88.2 -25.2 75.6 20.16 30.24
103.2 -10.2 90.6 35.16 45.24
484.12 -212.67 406.70 66.04 127.98
VAN VAN p
-519.26 -519.26 25%
60%
97.01 97.01 50%
1301.69 1301.69 25%
50%
293.15 293.15 0%
926.19 40%
3.16
30%
20%
10%
0%
-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500
20%
10%
0%
-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500
1500
1500
Simularea Monte Carlo
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
VAN
medie 134.86
sigma 210.32
CV 1.55949
95% interval de
incredere z=1.96 1.95996
limita superioara 547
limita inferioara -277
99% interval de
incredere z=2.58 2.57583
limita superioara 677
limita inferioara -407
probabilitatea ca
PN>0 73.93%
min -171.33
medie stdev max 1018.05
piata 1 0.2 pas 24.2731
cota 0.1 0.02 VAN -171.33 -147.06 -123 -99 -74 -50
pret 3750 750 frecventa 1 6 10 23 31 42
CVM 3000 600 probabilitate 0.4% 2.0% 1.6% 5.3% 3.2% 4.5%
CF 30 6
preluate din calcule tehnica scenariilor
RAND
trial = rand() medie 0.516383
1 0.637015 mediana 0.49951
2 0.1362419 min 0.005559
3 0.1539523 max 0.997834
4 0.9500591
5 0.9951734 cuartile frecv probab
6 0.909101 0-.25 15 0.3
7 0.8395193 .25-.50 10 0.2
8 0.6542331 .5-.75 9 0.18
9 0.2207383 .75-1 16 0.32
10 0.1944898 50 1
11 0.5941345
12 0.9565525
13 0.8346702
14 0.5021132
15 0.4969078
16 0.3830551
17 0.6269567
18 0.3905385
19 0.2273961
20 0.7253315
21 0.8538688
22 0.8272317
23 0.8889695
24 0.096516
25 0.1253498
26 0.1288469
27 0.0438088
28 0.0201591
29 0.9978345
30 0.3424292
31 0.1632198
32 0.482841
33 0.5278699
34 0.1067188
35 0.2821965
36 0.2998331
37 0.9767942
38 0.2345472
39 0.5579603
40 0.0055595
41 0.8314876
42 0.4547726
43 0.4672606
44 0.9332056
45 0.066361
46 0.7801217
47 0.3205773
48 0.6050612
49 0.9805602
50 0.9889841
medie 40000
sigma 10000