In collaboration with

Knibb
Gormezano &
Partners
International Management &
Years Technology Consultants

NON-ROAD MOBILE ENGINE

AND AFTERTREATMENT
FORECAST
Stage V Transition Briefing

www.kgpauto.com Briefing 1
Non-Road Mobile Machinery and Engine and Aftermarket Forecast Service

Briefing Paper #1 - Impact of Stage V on the

European Engine & Aftertreatment Market
Alex Woodrow, Managing Director
Regulation (EU) 2016/1628 i, more under 37kW into scope, engines from 0-
simply known as Stage V, replaces 8kW and 8-19kW are also included, as Forthcoming
Directive 97/68/EC ii , entered into force well as engines over 560kW that were Services
on 6th October 2016, and was applicable previously limited to Stage IIIB.
from 1st January 2017. The Legislation Figure 1 Emissions Stages
makes Europe’s Stage V the most Non-Road Mobile
Power Current Stage V Engines
stringent Non-Road emissions legislation Machinery
globally. 8-19kW N/A 1/1/2019
Driveline
19-37kW Stage IIIA 1/1/2019
The legislation includes a number of 37-56kW Stage IIIB 1/1/2019
important elements compared to `Stage 56-75kW Stage IV 1/1/2020
IV including: 75-130kW Stage IV 1/1/2020
Non-Road Mobile
Machinery
• Changes to power bands with 130-560kW Stage IV 1/1/2019
Electrification
staggered implementation dates 560kW+ N/A 2/1/2019

• Extended scope to include all Legislative Limits

engines under 19kW and above Related
Figure 2 Stage V Legislative Limits g/kWhr
560kW including SI engines Services
Power HC NOx PM PN
• More stringent Particulate Mass Commercial
0-8kW 7.5 0.4/.6 N/A
limits and new Particulate Number Vehicle
limit compared to US legislation 8-19Kw 7.5 0.4 N/A
19-37kW 4.7 0.015 1x1012 Electrification
• In-service monitoring (ISM) 37-56kW 4.7 0.015 1x1012
56-75kW 0.4 0.19 0.015 1x1012
• New Transition period rules
75-130kW 0.4 0.19 0.015 1x1012
However the transition scheme under 130-560kW 0.4 0.19 0.015 1x1012
Stage V, replacing Flexibility under 560kW+ 3.5 0.19 0.045 N/A
previous legislation allows engines Most importantly to the industry the
produced prior to those dates to be Particulate Number limit, aimed at further
Placed on the Market for a two year reducing small particulates that have
period, with machines with transition been proven to be harmful to health.
engines to be produced within 18 months When Stage IV was originally written it
and placed on the market within 24 was considered that DPF would be
months. required for all engines, but
As a result of the introduction of developments in combustion control
legislation we expect to see increases in meant that many European OEMs
both engine and machine production, or avoided fitment, citing various concerns
a ’Pre-Buy’ effect. A scenario for this over fuel economy, maintenance and
‘Pre-Buy’ is discussed in this briefing. durability. However DPF will now need to
be fitted to all diesel engined equipment.
Legislation Timing
Engine Pre-Buy
Type Approval of Stage V engines was
allowed from the introduction date of the For those OEMs with DPFs already, for
supplementing legislation, 13th April example Caterpillar and John Deere, the
2017. From January 2019 all newly engine and machine requirements will be
produced engines below 56kW and minimal, however for those without, i.e.
above 130kW must meet Stage V, 56-kW AGCO, CNH and JCB, engine changes
to 130kW from January 2020. will be mandatory, and in many cases will
require machine changes.
As can be seen the legislation covers
lower power engines not previously Whilst engine production is closely
legislated to Stage IV, bringing engines synced to equipment production new

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Non-Road Mobile Machinery and Engine and Aftermarket Forecast Service
emissions stages often drive distortions. available for customers for commercial
Under the previous rules OEMs were reasons.
able to use a so called ‘Flexibility’  Spreading engineering and supply
scheme which allowed them to sell up to chain investment over the transition
40% of the previous five years sales period;
volumes to previous emissions limits.  Meeting customer demand for non-
Transition allows a lot shorter period for DPF machines; Forthcoming
use of engines in new machines.  In-field testing of DPF machines;
So which engine manufacturers will it
Services
Based on KGP’s research and
influence the most? Those without a DPF
assumptions a scenario for production
option will be impacted significantly more Non-Road Mobile
can be estimated, note that this is a
than those adopting DPF for Stage IV Machinery
preliminary estimate and volumes may
(Figure 5), as well as those that import Driveline
increase/decrease depending on
engines and machines to Europe (Figure
customer demand.
6):
Figure 3 European Production by Compliance
Figure 5 Major OEMs Stage IV DPF Fitment Non-Road Mobile
Engine OEM Stage IV DPF Fitment
Machinery
Production by Compliance
AGCO Power None Electrification
Estimates (000s)
Caterpillar Majority
600
Cummins Engine Specific
400 Deutz Engine Specific Related
200 FPT Industrial None Services
- JCB None
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 John Deere Majority Commercial
Kubota Majority Vehicle
<= IIIA IIIB IV V Perkins Majority Electrification
Yanmar Majority
KGP’s initial estimates suggest 120,000 Volvo Engine Specific
machines <56kW and >130kW will be NB the expected engine ranges for all major
built with Stage IV transition engines plus OEMs at Stage IV and V are shown in KGP’s latest
10,000 at Stage IIIB, in 2019, increasing Non-Road Engine and Aftertreatment Summary
Report
to 180,000 in 2020 before declining to
70,000 in 2020. In total over 350,000 Figure 6 Key Equipment and Engine Imports
engines, of which approximately 20% or OEM Equipment Engines
100,000 will be imported, around 30,000 Agco Ag Tractors None
from North America, the remainder from >130kW
Japan and Korea. This equates to Caterpillar Various >130kW
120,000 engines per year, or a 20-25% >130kW
CNH Ag Tractors None
increase between 2018 and 2020.
Doosan Skid Steer None
Figure 4 Increased engine production demand Loaders
scenario (000s) 2019-2021 JCB Skid Steer None
Loaders
200
John Deere Ag Tractors >130kW
>130kW
150 Komatsu >130kW
100 Kubota Ag Tractors All
<75kW
50 Volvo None
0 Also included in the legislation is the in-
Europe Imports service monitoring. This will require
engine manufacturers to use PEMs
'19 '20 '21
systems to record specific engine data.
Unlike In-service compliance, found in
Whilst this increased volume will be most Euro VI truck and bus legislation. The
significant at the OEMs that have no DPF results of In-Service Monitoring will not
solution for Stage IV it is likely that all require mandatory fixes, but will be used
OEMs will gradually introduce Stage V or to set future legislation.
continue to make Stage IV machines

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Non-Road Mobile Machinery and Engine and Aftermarket Forecast Service

Meet us!
KGP will be attending various industry events in Autumn/Winter 2017. Contact us to Forthcoming
arrange a free consultation on Single Client, Multi-Client and Special Reports at any of
the following:
Services
 5th October LMC Automotive Outlook 2017 Birmingham, MI
 10th-11th October EVS 30 – Stuttgart Non-Road Mobile
 12th October - CECE Congress - Brussels Machinery
 7th-8th November Integer Emissions Control Forum 2017 - Pittsburgh Driveline
 12th-14th November - Agritechnica - Hannover
 14th-15th November IVT Electric & Hybrid Industrial Vehicle Technology
Symposium 2017 – Cologne Non-Road Mobile
 15th November LMC Commercial Vehicle Seminar 2017 – London Machinery
Electrification

References Related
Knibb Gormezano and Partners Q2 2017 Non-Road Engine Market Summary Report Services
Visit www.kgpauto.com/shop
Commercial
Regulation 2016/1628 European Commission Vehicle
Off-Highway Research International Database Service Update August 2017 Electrification

Contacts
Alex Woodrow
Managing Director
alexwoodrow@kgpauto.com

James Dorling
Senior Analyst
jamesdorling@kgpauto.com

Paris Kiernan
Analyst
pariskiernan@kgpauto.com

Mick Beeson
Sales Manager
mickbeeson@kgpauto.com

Knibb, Gormezano and Partners

6 Lancaster Park, Newborough Road, Needwood, Staffordshire, DE13 9PD UK

Disclaimer
Information contained in this document has been obtained by Knibb, Gormezano & Partners from industry
sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our
sources, Knibb Gormezano does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any
information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of
such information.
Copyright Knibb, Gormezano and Partners 2017

iAdditional Supplementing Legislation (EU) 2017/654, 655 and 656 cover technical and general
requirements, monitoring and administrative requirements respectively.

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