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[r]evolution
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK FOR CANADA
EUROPEAN RENEWABLE
ENERGY COUNCIL
image THE INDIGENOUS NENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT THEIR REINDEER DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUND AND THEY DO NOT OVER FISH THE LAKES.
THE YAMAL PENINSULA IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.
2
“will we look into the eyes
of our children and confess
that we had the opportunity,
but lacked the courage?
that we had the technology,
but lacked the vision?”
© GREENPEACE/WILL ROSE
for further information about the global, regional and national scenarios please visit the energy [r]evolution website: www.energyblueprint.info/
Published by Greenpeace International and EREC. (GPI reference number JN 330). Printed on 100% post consumer recycled chlorine-free paper.
3
foreword
4
But further, I believe clean energy is this century’s central economic But the single greatest barrier we face is psychological, and an
opportunity. It is, in the words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, accompanying institutional lethargy. Not only must we understand
the “third industrial revolution.” Without smart policy and clear that a clean economy is possible, we must commit ourselves to it
thinking, Canada will miss this opportunity. quickly, and fully. We cannot do tomorrow what we did yesterday.
We cannot assume things will be ok if we avoid rocking the boat,
What might the energy [r]evolution look like?
if we stay our present course. We need, collectively, to wake up.
We start with efficiency: our economic output per unit of energy can
Much of the world now understands that the energy [r]evolution is
easily double with smart energy use. Then we build an Energy
inevitable, since we have no real choice in the matter. What remains
Internet—a massively interconnected, continent-wide grid supplied by a
to be seen is if it happens on our terms, and our timeline—or on
mix of widely-distributed clean energy sources.
those dictated by an ever-more unstable climate.
What energy sources? Giant solar thermal plants with storage tanks.
The question that faces Canada is not “will we participate?” but
Solar electricity (photovoltaics) will follow a cost-reduction curve
“how?” Will Canada be a net buyer or seller of clean technology?
similar to the microchip. Wind farms across the continent can be
Putting policies in place to seed, support and grow our clean-tech
connected together to provide a stable resource. Hydro remains a
industries is the single smartest action our federal government can take.
powerhouse. Tidal and biomass will contribute. Grid storage includes
compressed air in caverns and underwater, low-friction flywheels, These are final innings in the climate fight. For some, that is reason
electric vehicles and pumped hydro. not to try. Some still find reason to delay. But this task is neither
optional nor leisurely.
The game-changer is enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs): the art
of drilling and fracturing the hot dry rock that lies everywhere deep
beneath our feet. Instead of drilling for oil at sea, or fracturing rock
Tom Rand
for shale gas, we can mine enough heat from the earth to power our
CLEANTECH LEAD ADVISOR, MARS DISCOVERY DISTRICT
civilization many times over.
AUTHOR, KICK THE FOSSIL FUEL HABIT: 10 CLEAN
So the energy [r]evolution is possible. This document is a detailed and TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE OUR WORLD
comprehensive plan to get there. But this revolution is also the biggest DIRECTOR, VCI GREEN FUNDS
challenge modern humans have ever faced. It will take unprecedented AUGUST 2010
levels of capital, international co-operation, and political will.
We cannot wait for the free market. We must intervene in a strong,
cohesive and intelligent way. For each economic barrier, there is a
policy tool. Companies are willing to play smart, but need clear,
long-term signals to commit.
It remains cheap to burn coal. It is still profitable to melt tar for oil.
We need to respond with a strong and rising price on carbon.
The energy of the sun, earth and wind is free, but the equipment to
capture it is not. To lower the cost of clean energy, we need to lower the
cost of capital. But debt financing is allergic to technology risk; bankers
back the old, not the new. We break this barrier with government-backed
Green Bonds, loan guarantees and progressive feed-in tariffs.
© © FALLSVIEW / DREAMSTIME.COM
A ROW OF WINDMILLS AT DUSK IN PINCHER CREEK, ALBERTA, CANADA. THESE WIND TURBINES MAKE PINCHER CREEK THE WIND ENERGY CAPITAL OF CANADA. 5
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
contents
1 climate protection & energy policy 16 6.1 canadian energy demand to 2050 67
6.2 electricity generation 68
1.1 the kyoto protocol 18 6.3 future costs of electricity generation 69
1.2 international energy policy 18 6.4 future employment 70
1.3 renewable energy targets 18 6.5 heating and cooling supply 70
1.4 policy changes in the energy sector 19 6.6 transportation 71
6.7 canada’s CO2 emissions 72
6.8 canada’s primary energy consumption 72
2 implementing the energy [r]evolution 20
6.9 future investment 73
2.1 canadian policy issues 21 6.9.1 investment in new power plants 73
2.1.1 canada: an energy superpower? 21 6.9.2 fossil fuel power generation investment 74
2.1.2 a superpower without sovereignty? 22 6.9.3 fuel cost savings with renewable energy 74
2.1.3 a national energy strategy for canada:
energy [r]evolution or status quo? 23
2.1.4 energy [r]evolution and the tar sands 24 7 energy resources and security of supply 76
2.2 ftsm: a support scheme for renewable power
in developing countries 26 7.1 oil 77
2.2.1 bankable renewable energy support schemes 26 7.1.1 the reserves chaos 77
2.2.2 the feed-in tariff suppor mechanism 27 7.1.2 non-conventional oil reserves 77
2.2.3 financing the energy [r]evolution with ftsm 28 7.2 gas 77
2.2 ftsm: a support scheme for renewable power in 7.2.1 shale gas 78
2.3 the greenhouse development rights framework 30 7.3 coal 78
2.3.1 calculating greenhouse gas emissions under the 7.4 nuclear 78
greenhouse development rights framework 30 7.5 renewable energy 79
2.3.2 applying gdr to the energy [r]evolution scenarios 33 7.5.1 the global potential for sustainable biomass 89
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image GREENPEACE AND AN INDEPENDENT NASA-
FUNDED SCIENTIST COMPLETED MEASUREMENTS OF
MELT LAKES ON THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET THAT SHOW
© GP/NICK COBBING
ITS VULNERABILITY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES.
figure 0.1 development of primary energy consumption in table 2.1 assumptions for ftsm calculations 28
canada (in PJ/a) to 2050, under three scenarios 15 table 2.2 ftsm key parameters - energy [r]evolution 29
figure 2.1 global demand for oil under four scenarios 25 table 2.3 ftsm key parameters - adv energy [r]evolution 29
figure 2.2 ftsm scheme 26 table 2.4 ftsm programme 29
figure 2.3 feed-in tariffs versus conventional power generation 27 table 2.5 renewable power for non-oecd countries
figure 2.4 emission reduction wedges under the energy under the ftsm programme 30
[r]evolution scenario 31 table 2.6 GDR factors and RCIs for IEA regions and select
figure 2.5 emission reduction wedges under the advanced countries, for 2010, 2020 and 2030 31
energy [r]evolution scenario 31 table 2.7 greenhouse development rights framework
figure 2.6 annual GHG emissions and reduction (GDR) applied to the energy
pathways under the GDR, for the european [r]evolution scenario 34
union, us, china and india 32 table 2.8 greenhouse development rights framework
figure 3.1 new reactor construction starts in past six years 37 (GDR) applied to the energy
figure 3.2 the nuclear fuel chain 39 [r]evolution scenario 34
figure 4.1 energy loss, by centralized generation systems 42 table 4.1 power plant value chain 44
figure 4.2 a decentralized energy future 43 table 4.2 utilities today 44
figure 4.3 overview of the future power system with table 5.1 development projections for fossil fuel prices,
high penetration of renewables 47 in CA$2008 54
figure 4.4 the smart-grid vision for the enery [r]evolution 50 table 5.2 assumptions on CO2 emissions cost
figure 5.1 future development of investment costs development (CA$/tCO2) 54
(normalized to current cost levels) for table 5.3 d of efficiency and investment costs
renewable energy technologies 60 for selected new power plant technologies 55
figure 5.2 expected development of electricity generation table 5.4 generation from photovoltaics, 2007–2050 56
costs from fossil fuel and renewable options table 5.5 generation from concentrating solar power,
example for oecd north america 60 2007–2050 57
figure 6.1 projection of energy demand in canada to 2050, table 5.6 generation from wind power, 2007–2050 57
by sector, under three scenarios 67 table 5.7 generation from biomass, 2007–2050 58
figure 6.2 development of electricity demand in canada to table 5.8 generation from geothermal, 2007–2050 58
2050, by sector, under three scenarios 68 table 5.9 generation from ocean energy, 2007–2050 59
figure 6.3 development of heat demand in canada to 2050, table 5.10 generation from hydro, 2007–2050 59
by sector, under three scenarios 68 table 5.11 assumed annual average growth rates
figure 6.4 development of electricity generation for renewable energy technologies 61
(in TWh/a) structure in canada to 2050, table 6.1 projection of renewable electricity capacity
under three scenarios 69 (in GW) in canada, under both energy
figure 6.5 development total electricity generation costs [r]evolution scenarios 68
($billion/a) & development of specific electricity table 6.2 employment and investment in canada to 2030,
generation costs (cents/kWh), to 2050, under under three scenarios 70
three scenarios 69
table 6.3 investment costs and fuel savings in the
figure 6.6 heating and cooling supply (in PJ/a) in canada, three scenarios 75
to 2050, under three scenarios 71
table 7.1 overview of known worldwide fossil fuel
figure 6.7 energy (PJ/a) for transportation in canada, reserves and resources 78
to 2050, under three scenarios 72
table 7.2 assumptions on fossil fuel use in the reference
figure 6.8 development of CO2 emissions in canada and energy [r]evolution scenarios 79
to 2050, by sector, under the energy
table 7.3 technical potential per renewable energy
[r]evolution scenarios 72
technology, for 2020, 2030 and 2050 89
figure 6.9 development of primary energy consumption in
table 9.1 new renewables built or contracted, in ontario,
canada (in PJ/a) to 2050, under three scenarios 72
as of june 2010 110
figure 6.10 investment shares: reference scenario vs.
energy [r]evolution scenarios 72
figure 6.11 change in cumulative power plant investment
in both energy [r]evolution scenarios 72
figure 6.12 renewable energy investment costs in
canada, 2007–2050 74
figure 7.1 energy resources of the world 88
figure 8.1 photovoltaics technology 98
figure 8.2 csp technologies: parabolic trough, central
receiver/solar tower and parabolic dish 99
figure 8.3 flat panel solar technology 100
figure 8.4 wind turbine 101
figure 8.5 biomass power plant 101
figure 8.6 geothermal power plant 103
figure 8.7 hydro power plant 103
7
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
introduction
“FOR THE SAKE OF A SOUND ENVIRONMENT, POLITICAL STABILITY AND THRIVING ECONOMIES, NOW IS THE TIME TO COMMIT
TO A TRULY SECURE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE.”
© GP/HU WEI
image A WORKER ENTERS A TURBINE TOWER FOR MAINTENANCE AT DABANCHENG WIND FARM. CHINA’S BEST WIND RESOURCES ARE MADE POSSIBLE BY THE NATURAL BREACH IN
TIANSHAN (TIAN MOUNTAIN).
Energy policy has a dramatic impact across the social, political and what’s possible in terms of energy supply strategies for the future and
economic spectrum. Governments and businesses must focus on the fact how to develop a sustainable energy and climate policy.
that energy is the lifeblood of the economy. For scientists, the crucial
Access to energy is of strategic importance for every country in the
matter is the threat of climate change brought about by burning fossil
world. Over the past few years oil prices have gone up and down like a
fuels. NGO’s concentrate on the environmental and social impacts, and
rollercoaster, jumping to a record high in July 2008 of $147.27 and
economists on the potential of a shift in the way our energy is produced.
then falling back again to $33.87 in December. Even so, over the
For engineers, the task is developing new technologies to supply and
whole of 2009 the average oil price was still between $60 and $80
consume energy in a smarter way. But at the end of the day, we are all
per barrel. At the same time, with gas prices in Europe rising in line
consumers and we all must deal with the full reality of our energy
with the price of oil, the impact on both the heating and power
system—from volatile prices to oil spills. Access to sufficient energy is
sectors has been huge.
vital to making our economies work but at the same time, our demand
for energy has become the main source of the greenhouse gas emissions Security of energy supply is not only influenced by the cost of fuels,
that put our climate at risk. Something needs to change. however, but by their long term physical availability. Countries without
their own fossil fuel supplies have increasingly shown interest in
While the last climate change summit in Copenhagen failed to produce
renewable energy sources, not only because of the price stability this
an agreement, international negotiations to address the issue remain
brings but because they are indigenous and locally produced.
high on the political agenda. At the same time, highly volatile fossil fuel
prices are creating more and more uncertainty for the global economy, Renewable energy technologies produce little or no greenhouse gases
creating an indirect incentive for investing in renewable energy and rely on virtually inexhaustible natural elements for their 'fuel'.
technologies, which are now booming. Against this backdrop, the third Some of these technologies are already competitive. The wind power
edition of the Energy [R]evolution analysis takes a deep plunge into industry, for example, has continued its explosive growth in the face of
8
image NORTH HOYLE WIND FARM,
UK’S FIRST WIND FARM IN THE IRISH
a global recession and a financial crisis and is a testament to the reduction in energy related CO2 emissions by 2050 might not be
inherent attractiveness of renewable technology. enough to keep the global mean temperature rise below +2°C.
In 2009 the total level of annual investment in clean energy was An even greater reduction may be needed if runaway climate change
$145 billion, only a 6.5% drop from the record previous year, while is to be avoided.
the global wind power market grew by an annual 41.5%. In the US
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario has changed five
alone, the wind industry grew by nearly 40%. The renewable energy
parameters compared to the basic version. These mean that the
industry now employs around two million people worldwide and has
economic lifetime of coal power stations has been reduced from 40 to
become a major feature of national industrial development plans. In
20 years, the growth rate of renewables has taken the advanced
the US, wind already employs more people than coal. Meanwhile, the
projections of the renewable industry into account, the use of electric
economics of renewables are expected to further improve as they
drives in the transport sector will take off ten years earlier, the
develop technically, and as the price of fossil fuels continues to rise
expansion of smart grids will happen quicker, and last but not least,
and as their saving of carbon dioxide emissions is given a monetary
the expansion of fossil fuel based energy will stop after 2015.
value. These cost comparisons, already favorable to renewables, don’t
even account for the massive externalized costs of fossil fuels such as A drastic reduction in CO2 levels and a share of over 80% renewables
the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. in the world energy supply are both possible goals by 2050. Of course
this will be a technical challenge, but the main obstacle is political. We
Despite the small drop in fossil fuel emissions in the industrialized
need to kick start the Energy [R]evolution with long lasting reliable
world as a result of the economic crisis, globally the level of energy
policy decisions within the next few years.
related carbon dioxide continues to grow. This means that a recovered
It took more than a decade to make politicians aware of the climate
economy will result in increasing CO2 emissions once again, further
crisis; we do not have another decade to agree on the changes needed
contributing to the greenhouse gases which threaten our planet. A
in the energy sector. Greenpeace and the renewables industry present
shift in energy policy is needed so that a growing economy and
the Energy [R]evolution scenario as a practical but ambitious blueprint.
reduced CO2 emissions can go hand in hand. The Energy [R]evolution
For the sake of a sound environment, political stability and thriving
analysis shows how this is possible.
economies, now is the time to commit to a truly secure and sustainable
Although the Copenhagen climate change conference at the end energy future – a future built on energy efficiency and renewable
of 2009 was a huge disappointment, it should not lead to a feeling energy, economic development and the creation of millions of new jobs
that nothing can happen. A change in energy policy has to be for the next generation.
connected to a change of climate policy. The United Nations
(UNFCCC) climate talks therefore still remain central to the survival
of our planet and a global regime for CO2 reduction. Placing a price
on carbon, as well as a long term agreement on CO2 reduction, are
both of vital importance for the uptake of renewables and energy Christine Lins Dave Martin
efficiency. The achievement of a new ‘fair, ambitious and legally SECRETARY GENERAL CLIMATE &
binding’ (FAB) deal relies fundamentally on legally binding emissions EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY CAMPAIGN
reduction obligations, on common guidelines for accounting rules, on ENERGY COUNCIL (EREC) GREENPEACE CANADA
a compliance regime and on agreed carbon trading mechanisms. AUGUST 2010
executive summary
“AT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION WILL BE A CHANGE IN THE WAY THAT ENERGY IS PRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED AND CONSUMED.”
© GREENPEACE/MARKEL REDONDO
image THE PS10 CONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT IN SEVILLA, SPAIN. THE 11 MEGAWATT SOLAR POWER TOWER PRODUCES ELECTRICITY WITH 624 LARGE MOVABLE MIRRORS
CALLED HELIOSTATS. THE SOLAR RADIATION, MIRROR DESIGN PLANT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 23 GWH OF ELECTRICITY WHICH IS ENOUGH TO SUPPLY POWER TO A POPULATION OF 10,000.
canada: energy superpower or energy [r]evolution? uranium to transform Canada into an “Energy Superpower.” In this
vision, Canada’s economic future and global stature would be anchored
Canada is the fifth-largest producer of energy on the planet,
in what Prime Minister Harper has called “an ocean of oil-soaked
with an unparalleled wealth of both renewable and non-renewable
sand.”2 The rapid expansion of tar sands operations in the boreal forest
energy resources, including the second-largest proven reserve of oil in
of northern Alberta are at the heart of this strategy, but it also includes
the world.1
the expansion of the oil and gas frontier into the Arctic, the seas off the
After years of conflict over climate policy and the development of British Columbia and Atlantic coasts, and the waters of the Great Lakes
energy infrastructure, there is now wide-spread agreement amongst and the St. Laurence River as well. It also includes sale of Canada’s
the key policy players that Canada needs a national energy strategy uranium resources and nuclear technology. The federal and Alberta
that is based on a vision of what our energy future looks like, and governments are aggressively supporting this vision through public
implemented through a coherent set of policies at the federal, subsidies and policy reforms, and oil companies are investing billions of
provincial and even municipal levels to guide the public and the dollars into making it a reality. Even in Quebec, which of all the
private investment required to realize this future. provinces could most readily become fossil energy–free, the government
is now seriously considering embarking on oil and gas extraction.
At present, there are two clear visions of what this energy strategy
should look like: Energy Superpower, or Energy [R]evolution. The Yet the International Energy Agency’s own analysis shows that these
choice between them needs to be made through an informed public resources are only needed in, and indeed would contribute to creating,
debate rather than through back-room lobbying, as Canada’s energy a world suffering from “massive climatic change and irreparable
strategy will be a defining feature of our nation’s economic, social, harm to the planet.”
and environmental future.
references
In support of the first vision, the Harper government and the corporate 1 NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA, ECONOMIC SCAN OF CANADA’S ENERGY SECTOR, 2008.
energy lobby would use our abundant reserves of oil, gas, coal and 2 STEPHEN HARPER, “ADDRESS BY THE PRIME MINISTER AT THE CANADA-UK CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE,” 14 JULY 2006, AVAILABLE AT <HTTP://PM.GC.CA/ENG/MEDIA.ASP?ID=1247>.
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image WELDER WORKING AT VESTAS
WIND TURBINE FACTORY,
CAMPBELLTOWN, SCOTLAND.
© KATE DAVISON/GP
To become this kind of an Energy Superpower would come at the cost of In the worst case, the Copenhagen Accord pledges could even permit
ecological destruction on a scale that would undermine the ability of future emission allowances to exceed a “business as usual” projection. In
generations to enjoy a decent quality of life. If we wish to protect the planet order to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, the
for our children, the only alternative is to change our relationship to energy. global temperature increase must be kept as far below 2°C as
possible. This is still possible, but time is running out. To stay within
Greenpeace has proposed a global Energy [R]evolution scenario,
this limit, global greenhouse gas emissions will need to peak by 2015
developed for Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy
and decline rapidly after that, reaching as close to zero as possible by
Council,3 that provides a practical blueprint for the world’s renewable
the middle of the 21st century.
energy future. It shows how we can phase out fossil fuels, cut CO2
emissions while ensuring energy security, bring energy to an extra two Keeping the global temperature increase to 2°C is often referred to as
billion people who currently have no access to electricity, and create a “safe level” of warming, but this does not reflect the reality of the
millions of green-collar jobs. latest science. This science shows that a warming of 2°C above pre-
industrial levels would pose unacceptable risks to many of the world’s
The Greenpeace Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario shows how,
key natural and human systems. Even with a warming of 1.5°C, many
by 2050, renewable energy sources could provide 96% of the
regions of the world are expected to experience increases in drought,
electricity produced in Canada and 92% of our total heating demand,
heat waves and floods, along with other adverse impacts such as
accounting for 74% of our overall primary energy demand. The
increased water stress for up to 1.7 billion people, wildfire frequency
blueprint would create about 72,000 jobs in the renewables sector
and flood risks. Neither does staying below 2°C in warming rule out
alone, by 2030. The total fuel cost savings in the Advanced Energy
large-scale disasters such as melting ice sheets. Partial de-glaciation
[R]evolution scenario described could reach a total of $228 billion, or
of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could even occur from
$5.3 billion per year.
additional warming within a range of 0.8–3.8°C above current levels.6
Canada can join the Energy [R]evolution by promoting efficiency and
renewable energy, and phasing out energy derived from coal, nuclear,
climate change and security of supply
and oil. The sustainable future of the planet will not be brought about
by further subsidizing of dirty and finite fossil fuels, but by investment Spurred by recent rapidly fluctuating oil prices, security of supply is now
in people and local communities who can install and maintain at the top of the energy policy agenda. One reason for price fluctuations
renewable energy sources. is that all proven resources of oil, gas and coal are becoming scarcer and
more expensive to produce. So-called “non-conventional” resources such
The Energy [R]evolution has already started in Canada. The provinces
as the Canadian tar sands have become economical, with devastating
of British Columbia and Quebec have already put a price on carbon.
consequences for the environment. The days of “cheap oil and gas” are
The Green Energy Act in Ontario has established a system of feed-in
coming to an end. Uranium, the fuel for nuclear power, is also a finite
tariffs and improved grid access for renewable energy along the lines
resource. This report demonstrates that, by contrast, the global technical
called for in this report. In the first six months of 2010, commitments
potential for renewable energy can supply about six times more power
were made to over $18 billion of renewable energy projects. By 2015,
than the world currently consumes—forever.
these 800 projects will be generating over 7,750 megawatts of power
and 16 terawatt hours of electricity annually, or roughly 11% of Renewable energy technologies vary widely in their technical and
current electricity consumption in Ontario. economic maturity, but a range of sources offers increasingly attractive
options. These include wind, photovoltaics (PV), solar thermal,
geothermal, ocean, sustainable biomass and low-impact hydroelectric
a safe level of warming?
power. They produce little or no greenhouse gases, and rely on virtually
Climate change, caused by rising global temperatures, is the most inexhaustible natural elements for their “fuel.” Some of these
significant environmental challenge facing the world at the beginning of technologies are already competitive. The wind power industry, for
the 21st century. It has major implications for the world’s social and example, continued its explosive growth in the face of a global recession
economic stability, its natural resources and in particular, the way we and a financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 and is a testament to the
produce our energy. The December 2009 Copenhagen Accord, aims to inherent attractiveness of renewable technology.
keep the global average temperature increase below 2°C, and then
consider a 1.5°C limit by 2015. However, the reduction pledges
submitted by various parties to the United Nations Framework references
3 THE NATIONAL REPORT FOR CANADA HEREIN IS A COMPANION TO THE GLOBAL REPORT
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in the first half of 2010 are ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK (EREC/GREENPEACE
likely to lead to a world with global emissions of between 47.9 and 53.6 2010), WHICH CONTAINS ADDITIONAL DETAIL ON SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS, DATA AND
MODELING. IT IS AVAILABLE AT <HTTP://WWW.ENERGYBLUEPRINT.INFO>.
gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year by 2020. This is about 4 JOERI ROGELJ ET AL., COPENHAGEN ACCORD PLEDGES ARE PALTRY, NATURE 464:
10–20% higher than today’s levels. The greenhouse gas reduction 1126–1128, 22 APRIL 2010.
5 W. L. HARE, A SAFE LANDING FOR THE CLIMATE, STATE OF THE WORLD, WORLDWATCH
commitment for 2020 submitted by Canada to the Copenhagen Accord INSTITUTE, 2009.
was even weaker than its previous greenhouse gas reduction 6 JOEL B. SMITH ET AL., ASSESSING DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH AN UPDATE OF
THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) “REASONS FOR CONCERN,”
commitment, and wouldn’t even achieve the level committed to by PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, PUBLISHED ONLINE 26 FEBRUARY
Canada for the 2008–2012 period, under the Kyoto Protocol. 2009: <HTTP://WWW.PNAS.ORG/CONTENT/EARLY/2009/02/25/0812355106.FULL.PDF>.
11
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
According to the United Nations Environment Program, and Bloomberg conversion and distribution. Investments in “climate infrastructure”—
New Energy Finance, global investment in sustainable energy was US such as “smart” interactive grids, as well as super grids to transport
$162 billion in 2009, and for the second year in a row, investments in large quantities of offshore wind and concentrating solar power—are
sustainable energy exceeded investments in new fossil capacity.7 The essential. Building up clusters of renewable micro-grids, especially for
global wind industry defied the economic downturn and saw its annual people living in remote areas, will be a central tool in providing
market grow by 41.5% over 2008, and total global wind power capacity sustainable electricity to the almost two billion people around the world
increased by 31.7% to 158 GW at the end of 2009.8 More grid- for whom access to electricity is presently denied.
connected solar PV capacity was added worldwide than in the boom
year of 2008. And the economics of renewables will further improve as
greenhouse development rights framework
they develop technically, as the price of fossil fuels continues to rise, and
as carbon pricing systems become more widespread. Although the Energy Revolution envisages a clear technological pathway, it
is only likely to be turned into reality if its corresponding investment costs
At the same time, there is enormous potential for reducing our
are shared fairly under some kind of global climate regime. To demonstrate
consumption of energy and still continuing to provide the same level
one such possibility, we have utilized the Greenhouse Development Rights
of energy services. Energy efficiency measures can substantially
Framework, designed by EcoEquity and the Stockholm Environment
reduce demand across industry, homes, business and services.9
Institute, as a way of evening up the unequal ability of different countries
Viewed against these positive attractions, nuclear energy is a relatively to respond to the climate crisis in their energy polices.
minor industry with major problems. The average age of operating
The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework (GDR) calculates
commercial nuclear reactors is 23 years, so more power stations are
national shares of global greenhouse gas obligations, based on a
being shut down than started. In 2009, world nuclear production had
combination of responsibility (contribution to climate change) and
fallen by 4% compared to 2006,10 and the number of operating reactors
capacity (ability to pay). Crucially, GDR takes inequality within countries
as of January 2010 was 436, eight less than at the historical peak of
into account and calculates national obligations on the basis of the
2002. Although nuclear power produces little carbon dioxide, there are
estimated capacity and responsibility of individuals. Individuals with
multiple threats to people and the environment from its operations.
incomes below a “development threshold”—specified in the default case
These include the risks and environmental damage from uranium mining,
as $7,500 per capita annual income, adjusted for purchasing power
processing and transport, the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation, the
parity (PPP)—are exempted from climate-related obligations. Individuals
unsolved problem of nuclear waste, and the potential hazard of a serious
with incomes above that level are expected to contribute to the costs of
accident. The nuclear option is therefore rejected in this analysis.
global climate policy in proportion to their capacity (amount of income
over the threshold) and responsibility (cumulative CO2 emissions).
the energy [r]evolution
The result of these calculations is that rich countries like Canada, which
The climate change imperative demands nothing short of an Energy is also responsible for a disproportionately large share of global
[R]evolution, a transformation that has already started as renewable greenhouse gas emissions, will contribute more toward the costs of
energy markets continue to grow. In the first global edition of the implementing global climate policies, such as increasing the proportion
Energy [R]evolution, published in January 2007, of renewables, than a country like Mexico. Based on a “responsibility
we projected a global installed renewable capacity of 156 GW by and capacity indicator” (RCI), Canada, accounting for 3.1% of the
2010. At the end of 2009, 158 GW has been installed. More needs to world’s responsibility for climate change, would thus be responsible for
be done, however. At the core of this revolution will be a change in the funding 2.9% of the required global emissions reductions.
way that energy is produced, distributed and consumed. The five key
The GDR therefore represents a good mechanism for helping
principles behind this shift will be to:
developing countries to leapfrog into a sustainable energy supply, with
the help of industrialized countries, while maintaining economic growth
the five key principles behind this shift will be to: and the need to satisfy their growing energy needs. Greenpeace has
taken this concept on board as a means of achieving equity within the
• Implement renewable solutions, especially through decentralized
climate debate and as a practical solution to kick-starting the
energy systems;
renewable energy market in developing countries.
• Respect the natural limits of the environment;
references
• Phase out dirty, unsustainable energy sources; 7 UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME, AND BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE,
GLOBAL TRENDS IN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2010: ANALYSIS
• Create greater equity in the use of resources; and OF TRENDS AND ISSUES IN THE FINANCING OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY
EFFICIENCY, 2010.
• Decouple economic growth from the consumption of fossil fuels. 8 SAWYER, A. ZERVOS, GLOBAL WIND 2009 REPORT, GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL,
MARCH 2010.
9 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY ARE PRESENTED IN CHAPTER 9,
BUT FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION SEE CHAPTER 10 OF THE GLOBAL 2010 ENERGY
Decentralized energy systems, where power and heat are produced close [R]EVOLUTION REPORT, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY
to the point of final use, will avoid the current waste of energy during OUTLOOK (EREC/GREENPEACE), AVAILABLE AT <WWW.ENERGYBLUEPRINT.INFO>
10 BP, STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2010.
12
image THOUSANDS OF FISH DIE AT THE
methodology and assumptions In the Advanced scenario, the latest market development projections of
the renewable industry11 have been calculated for all sectors (see section
Three scenarios, up to the year 2050, are outlined in this report: a
5). The speedier uptake of electric vehicles, combined with the faster
Reference scenario;, an Energy [R]evolution (E[R]) scenario, with a
implementation of smart grids and expanding super grids (about ten
target of reducing Canadian energy-related CO2 emissions by 86% from
years ahead of the Energy [R]evolution scenario) allows a higher share
their 1990 levels (as part of 50% global reduction); and an Advanced
of fluctuating renewable power generation (photovoltaic and wind). The
Energy [R]evolution scenario, which envisages a fall of 94% in Canadian
threshold of a 40% proportion of renewables in global primary energy
energy-related CO2 by 2050 (as part of an 82% global reduction).
supply is therefore passed just after 2030 (also ten years ahead). By
The Reference scenario is based on the reference scenario in the contrast, the global quantity of biomass and large hydro power remain
International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) World Energy Outlook 2009 the same in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, for sustainability
(WEO 2009) analysis, extrapolated forward from 2030. Compared to reasons, although the share of biomass and hydro power are moderately
the previous (2007) IEA projection, WEO 2009 assumes a slightly lower higher in the Canadian Advanced scenario relative to the basic Energy
average annual growth rate for world gross domestic product (GDP) of [R]evolution scenario.
3.1%, instead of 3.6%, over the period 2007–2030. At the same time,
it expects final energy consumption in 2030 to be 6% lower than in the
towards a renewable future in canada
2007 report. China and India are expected to grow faster than other
regions, followed by the Developing Asia group of countries, Africa, and In 2007, renewable energy accounted for 15% of Canada’s primary
the Transition Economies countries (mainly the former Soviet Union). energy demand. The renewable share of electricity generation is 59%, due
The OECD share of global purchasing power parity (PPP)–adjusted primarily to the large share of hydroelectricity, while the contribution to
GDP will decrease from 55% in 2007 to 29% by 2050. heat supply is around 11%. About 76% of the primary energy supply
today still comes from fossil fuels and 9% from nuclear power. Both
The Energy [R]evolution scenario has a key target of the reduction of
Energy [R]evolution scenarios describe development pathways which turn
worldwide carbon dioxide emissions down to a level of around 10
the present situation into a sustainable energy supply, with the Advanced
gigatonnes per year by 2050. A second objective is the global
scenario achieving the urgently needed CO2 reduction target more than a
phasing-out of nuclear energy. To achieve these goals, the scenario is
decade earlier than the Energy [R]evolution scenario.
characterized by significant efforts to fully exploit the large potential
for energy efficiency. At the same time, all cost-effective renewable
energy sources are used for heat and electricity generation, as well as results of implementing the advanced energy
the production of sustainable biofuels. The general framework [r]evolution scenario
parameters for population and GDP growth remain unchanged from
1.Efficiency—Final energy demand in Canada decreases by 38% from
the Reference scenario.
the current (2007) 8,583 petajoules per annum (PJ/a) to 5,362 PJ/a
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution Scenario takes a much more in 2050. By contrast, under the Reference scenario, demand grows
radical approach to the climate crisis facing the world. In order to 26% to 10,830 PJ/a. Globally, final energy demand grows modestly in
pull the emergency brake on global emissions, it therefore assumes the Advanced scenario, but much less than in the Reference scenario.
much shorter technical lifetimes for coal-fired power plants—20 This reduction in energy demand is a crucial prerequisite for
years instead of 40 years. This reduces global CO2 emissions even renewable energy’s achieving a significant share of the overall energy
faster and takes the latest evidence of greater climate sensitivity into supply system, and for compensating for the phasing-out of nuclear
account. To fill the resulting gap, the annual growth rates of energy and reduced consumption of fossil fuels.
renewable energy sources, especially solar photovoltaics, wind and
2.Electric transport—More electric drives are used in the transport
concentrating solar power plants, have therefore been increased.
sector, and hydrogen produced by electrolysis from excess renewable
Apart from that, the Advanced scenario takes on board all the electricity plays a much bigger role in the Advanced than in the E[R]
general framework parameters of population and economic growth scenario. By 2020, the final energy share of electric vehicles on the
from the basic scenario, as well as most of the energy efficiency road increases to 9% and by 2050 to 66%. More public transport
roadmap. In the transport sector, however, there is a faster uptake of systems also use electricity, as well as there being a greater shift from
efficient combustion vehicles and—after 2025—a larger share of road to rail in the transport of freight.
electric vehicles.
3.Combined Heat and Power (CHP)—The increased use of combined
Within the heating sector, there is a faster expansion of combined heat heat and power (CHP) generation also improves the supply system’s
and power (CHP) in the industry sector, more electricity for process energy conversion efficiency, increasingly using natural gas and
heat, and a faster growth of solar and geothermal heating systems. sustainable biomass. In the long term, the decreasing demand for heat
Combined with a larger share of electric drives in the transport sector, and the large potential for producing heat directly from renewable
this results in a higher overall demand for electric power in Canada. energy sources limits the further expansion of CHP.
Even so, the overall electricity demand in the advanced Energy references
11 PROF. ARTHOUROS ZERVOS, CHRISTINE LINS AND JOSCHE MUTH, RE-THINKING 2050: A
[R]evolution scenario is still 27% lower than in the Reference scenario. 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY VISION FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION, EUROPEAN RENEWABLE
ENERGY COUNCIL (EREC), APRIL 2010.
13
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
14
image CONSTRUCTION OF THE OFFSHORE
© PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
WINDFARM AT MIDDELGRUNDEN NEAR
COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.
future employment nuclear energy and a growth in electricity demand, CO2 emissions will
decrease enormously in the electricity sector. There will even be a
Worldwide, we would see more direct jobs created in the energy
reduction in transportation-sector CO2 emissions, due to efficiency
sector if we shifted to either of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios.
improvements, the increased use of electric vehicles powered by
The Energy [R]evolution scenarios lead to more electricity sector jobs renewable energy, and a dramatic expansion of public transport.
in Canada at every stage:
• By 2015, more than 67,000 jobs would be created in the renewable energy [r]evolution policy changes
power sector under the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario—
To join the Energy [R]evolution and to avoid catastrophic climate
29,000 more than the 38,000 in the Reference scenario. The
change, the following policies and actions must be implemented in the
Energy [R]evolution scenario would create 52,000 jobs in the
energy sector:
renewable power industry by the same year.
1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
• By 2030, the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario would create
about 72,000 jobs in the renewable power sector—24,000 more 2. Internalize the external (social and environmental) costs of energy
than the 48,000 jobs in the Reference scenario. The Advanced production through “cap and trade” emissions trading.
scenario creates about 12,000 more new jobs in the entire power
3. Implement strict efficiency standards for all energy-consuming
sector between 2015 and 2030, compared to the Reference
appliances, buildings and vehicles.
scenario.
4. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy and
combined heat and power generation.
canada’s co2 emissions
5. Guarantee priority grid access for renewable energy.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in Canada will increase more than 10%
under the Reference scenario, up to 2050, and are thus very far 6. Provide defined and stable returns for investors; for example,
removed from a sustainable development path. By contrast, under the through feed-in tariff programmes.
Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario emissions will decrease from 7. Implement better labelling to provide more energy and
547 million tonnes in 2007 to 29 million tonnes in 2050—94% environment product information.
below 1990 levels. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 16.6
tonnes to 0.7 tonnes in the same time period. In spite of phasing out 8. Increase research and development budgets for efficiency and
renewable energy.
figure 0.1: development of primary energy consumption in canada to 2050, under three scenarios
(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000 •• ‘EFFICIENCY’
OCEAN ENERGY
8,000 •• GEOTHERMAL
SOLAR
6,000 •• BIOMASS
WIND
4,000 •• HYDRO
NATURAL GAS
2,000 •• OIL
COAL
PJ/a 0
REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv
• NUCLEAR
15
climate protection and energy policy
GLOBAL THE KYOTO PROTOCOL RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY POLICY POLICY CHANGES IN THE ENERGY SECTOR
environmental crisis.”
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN
16
image WANG WAN YI, AGE 76, ADJUSTS THE SUNLIGHT
POINT ON A SOLAR DEVICE USED TO BOIL HIS KETTLE.
HE LIVES WITH HIS WIFE IN ONE ROOM CARVED OUT 1
OF THE SANDSTONE, A TYPICAL DWELLING FOR LOCAL
© GP/JOHN NOVIS
climate protection |
PEOPLE IN THE REGION. DROUGHT IS ONE OF THE MOST
HARMFUL NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHWEST CHINA.
CLIMATE CHANGE HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
CHINA’S ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY.
The greenhouse effect is the process by which the atmosphere traps Here is a summary of some likely effects if we allow
some of the sun’s energy, warming the earth and moderating our current trends to continue:
climate. A human-driven increase in greenhouse gases has enhanced
Climate change is already harming people and ecosystems. Its reality • Warming from rising emissions may trigger the irreversible
can be seen in disintegrating polar ice, thawing permafrost, rising sea meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, adding up to seven metres of
levels, and fatal heat waves. It is not only scientists who are global sea-level rise over several centuries.
witnessing these changes. From the Inuit in the far north to islanders • New evidence shows that the rate of ice discharge from parts of the
near the Equator, people are already struggling with impacts Antarctic means that its ice sheet is also at risk of meltdown.
consistent with climate change. An average global warming of more
than 2°C threatens millions of people with an increased risk of • The resultant slowing, shifting or shutting down of the Atlantic Gulf
hunger, disease, flooding and water shortages. Never before has Stream current would have dramatic effects in Europe, and disrupt
humanity been forced to grapple with such an immense environmental the global ocean circulation system.
crisis. If we do not take urgent and immediate action to protect the • Large releases of methane from melting permafrost and from the
climate, the damage could become irreversible. Avoiding such damage oceans would lead to rapid increases of the gas in the atmosphere
can only happen through a rapid reduction in the emissions of and to consequent warming.
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to the Kyoto nuclear and fossil fuel power stations, which produce electricity at
Protocol in 1997. The Protocol finally entered into force in early marginal cost because consumers and taxpayers have already paid the
2005 and its 165 member countries meet twice annually to negotiate interest and depreciation on the original investment. Political action is
further refinement and development of the agreement. Only one major needed to overcome these distortions and create a level playing field
industrialized nation, the United States, has not ratified Kyoto. for renewable energy technologies to compete.
The Kyoto Protocol commits its signatories to reduce their At a time when governments around the world are in the process of
greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from their 1990 level by the liberalising their electricity markets, the increasing competitiveness of
target period of 2008–2012. This has in turn resulted in the adoption renewable energy should lead to higher demand. Without political
of a series of regional and national reduction targets. In the European support, however, renewable energy remains at a disadvantage,
Union, for instance, the commitment is to an overall reduction of 8%. marginalised by distortions in the world’s electricity markets created by
In order to help reach this target, the EU also agreed on a target to decades of massive financial, political and structural support to
increase its proportion of renewable energy, from 6% to 12% by conventional technologies. Developing renewables will therefore require
2010. Canada agreed to cut its emissions by 6% relative to 1990 strong political and economic efforts, especially through laws that
levels, but emissions are now 24% higher than they were in 1990. guarantee stable tariffs over a period of up to 20 years. Renewable
energy will also contribute to sustainable economic growth, high-quality
At present, the 193 members of UNFCCC are negotiating a new
jobs, technology development, global competitiveness, and industrial
climate change agreement that should enable all countries to continue
and research leadership.
contributing to ambitious and fair emissions reductions.
Unfortunately, the aim to reach such an agreement in Copenhagen at
the end of 2009 failed, and governments will continue negotiating in 1.3 renewable energy targets
2010 and possibly beyond to reach a new legally binding deal. Such
In recent years, in order to reduce greenhouse emissions as well as
an agreement will need to ensure that industrialized countries reduce
increase energy security, a growing number of countries have
their emissions on average by at least 40% by 2020, compared to
established targets for renewable energy. These are either expressed in
their 1990 levels. They will further need to provide funding of at least
terms of installed capacity or as a percentage of energy consumption.
$140 billion a year to developing countries to enable them to adapt
These targets have served as important catalysts for increasing the
to climate change, protect their forests and achieve their part of the
share of renewable energy throughout the world.
energy revolution. Developing countries need to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions by 15 to 30%, compared to their projected A time period of just a few years is not long enough in the electricity
growth by 2020. sector, however, where the investment horizon can be up to 40 years.
Renewable energy targets therefore need to involve short-, medium-
This new “fair and binding” (FAB) deal will need to incorporate the
and long-term steps and must be legally binding in order to be
Kyoto Protocol’s architecture. This relies fundamentally on legally
effective. They should also be supported by incentive mechanisms such
binding emissions reduction obligations. To achieve these targets, carbon
as feed-in tariffs for renewable electricity generation. In order for the
is turned into a commodity which can be traded. The aim is to encourage
proportion of renewable energy to increase significantly, targets must
the most economically efficient emissions reductions, in turn leveraging
be set in accordance with the local potential for each technology
the necessary investment in clean technology from the private sector to
(wind, solar, sustainable biomass, etc.) and be complemented by
drive a revolution in energy supply.
policies that develop the skills and manufacturing bases to deliver the
After Copenhagen, governments need to increase their resolve to agreed-upon quantity.
reduce emissions and invest even more in making the energy
In recent years. the wind and solar power industries have shown that
revolution happen. Greenpeace believes that it is feasible to reach a
it is possible to maintain a growth rate of 30 to 35% in the
FAB deal in Cancun at the end of this year, if there is sufficient
renewables sector. In conjunction with the European Photovoltaic
political will to conclude such an agreement. That political will seems
Industry Association,12 the European Solar Thermal Power Industry
to be lacking at the moment. But even if a FAB deal cannot be
Association,13 and the Global Wind Energy Council,14 the European
finalised in Cancun, due to lack of ambition and commitment by some
Renewable Energy Council and Greenpeace have documented the
countries, major parts could still be in place, specifically those related
development of those industries from 1990 onwards and outlined a
to long-term financing commitments, forest protection and an overall
prognosis for growth up to 2020 and 2040.
target for emissions reductions. The result would be that by the time
of the Environment and Development Summit in Brazil in 2012, we
would be celebrating an agreement that definitely keeps the world’s references
12 GREENPEACE, SOLAR GENERATION IV (C. AUBREY, ED.), SEPTEMBER 2009.
temperature well below two degrees of warming. 13 GREENPEACE, CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER GLOBAL OUTLOOK 09: WHY RENEWABLE
ENERGY IS HOT!, MAY 2009.
14 GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL, GLOBAL WIND ENERGY OUTLOOK 2008,
OCTOBER 2008.
18
image A PRAWN SEED FARM ON
MAINLAND INDIA’S SUNDARBANS COAST
LIES FLOODED AFTER CYCLONE AILA. 1
© GP/PETER CATON
INUNDATING AND DESTROYING NEARBY
climate protection |
ROADS AND HOUSES WITH SALT WATER.
© GP/STEVE MORGAN
1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
© GP/PETER CATON
2. Internalize external (social and environmental) costs through cap-
and-trade emissions trading.
3. Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy-consuming 1 2
© GP/JOHN NOVIS
7. Implement better labelling and disclosure mechanisms to provide
more environmental product information.
3
8. Increase research and development budgets for renewable energy
and energy efficiency
Conventional energy sources receive an estimated $250–300 billion15 in
subsidies per year worldwide, resulting in heavily distorted markets.
Subsidies artificially reduce the price of power, keep renewable energy
out of the market place and prop up non-competitive technologies and
fuels. Eliminating direct and indirect subsidies to fossil fuels and
© GP/STEVE MORGAN
nuclear power would help move us toward a level playing field across
© GP/PETER CATON
the energy sector. Renewable energy would not need special provisions if
markets factored in the cost of climate damage from greenhouse gas
pollution. Subsidies to polluting technologies are perverse in that they
4 5
are economically as well as environmentally detrimental. Removing
subsidies from conventional electricity supply would not only save
taxpayers’ money, it would also dramatically reduce the need for images 1. AN AERIAL VIEW OF PERMAFROST TUNDRA IN THE YAMAL PENINSULA. THE
renewable energy support. ENTIRE REGION IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS. 2. SOVARANI KOYAL LIVES IN
SATJELLIA ISLAND AND IS ONE OF THE MANY PEOPLE AFFECTED BY SEA LEVEL RISE:
“NOWADAYS, HEAVY FLOODS ARE GOING ON HERE. THE WATER LEVEL IS INCREASING AND
THE TEMPERATURE TOO. WE CANNOT LIVE HERE, THE HEAT IS BECOMING UNBEARABLE. WE
HAVE RECEIVED A PLASTIC SHEET AND HAVE COVERED OUR HOME WITH IT. DURING THE
“if we do not take urgent and COMING MONSOON WE SHALL WRAP OUR BODIES IN THE PLASTIC TO STAY DRY. WE HAVE
ONLY A FEW GOATS BUT WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THEY ARE. WE ALSO HAVE TWO CHILDREN
AND WE CANNOT MANAGE TO FEED THEM.” 3. WANG WAN YI, AGE 76, SITS INSIDE HIS HOME
immediate action to protect WHERE HE LIVES WITH HIS WIFE IN ONE ROOM CARVED OUT OF THE SANDSTONE, A TYPICAL
DWELLING FOR LOCAL PEOPLE IN THE REGION. DROUGHT IS ONE OF THE MOST HARMFUL
the climate the damage could NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHWEST CHINA. CLIMATE CHANGE HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON CHINA’S ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY. 4. INDIGENOUS NENETS PEOPLE WITH THEIR
REINDEER. THE NENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT THEIR HERDS DO NOT
become irreversible.” OVER GRAZE THE GROUND. THE ENTIRE REGION AND ITS INHABITANTS ARE UNDER HEAVY
THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT
PERMAFROST MELTS. 5. A BOY HOLDS HIS MOTHER’S HANDS WHILST IN A QUEUE FOR
EMERGENCY RELIEF SUPPLY. SCIENTISTS ESTIMATE THAT OVER 70,000 PEOPLE, LIVING
EFFECTIVELY ON THE FRONT LINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE
SUNDARBANS DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE BY THE YEAR 2030.
references
15 UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME, WORLD ENERGY ASSESSMENT: ENERGY
AND THE CHALLENGE OF SUSTAINABILITY, 2000.
19
implementing the energy [r]evolution
GLOBAL CANADIAN POLICY ISSUES GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS
FTSM SCHEME
2 ima
ge G
EOT
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M AL
POW
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P LAN
T, N
O RTH
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JOE
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20
“the debate over a national energy strategy holds the key to
what kind of an ‘energy superpower’ canada will become.” 2
21
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |
To put these numbers in perspective, Greenpeace and other environmental Nor, contrary to the emphasis on harmonization, is the Canadian
groups have called on Canada to adopt a science-based emissions federal government matching the efforts of the United States on energy
reduction target of at least 25% below 1990 levels by the year 2020. efficiency and renewable energy. The US federal government is investing
eight times more, per person, in renewable energy, energy efficiency and
Even the government’s new weak climate target will not be achieved
public transit combined than is Canada’s federal government. The gap is
without significant new measures,26 and the government’s own
even larger when it comes to investments in green energy. In 2009,
assessment shows that there is no net reduction in greenhouse gas
there was a 14:1 per capita ratio between the United States and
emissions expected from federal action in the 2009–2012 period.27
Canada for investments in renewable energy and this ratio is set to
This combination of Canada’s poor performance on reducing emissions climb to nearly 18:1 in 2010.33
and its weak policy resulted in a last-place finish in the 2009 G8 Climate
Furthermore, a made-in-Washington strategy will not be the best
Scorecard produced jointly by the conservation organization WWF and
suited for Canada. In the United States, coal-fired electricity is a
the global insurance firm Allianz. Similarly, in a survey of climate policy
CANADIAN POLICY ISSUES
22
image A MAINTENANCE WORKER MARKS
A BLADE OF A WINDMILL AT GUAZHOU
© GP/MARKEL REDONDO
WIND FARM NEAR YUMEN IN GANSU
PROVINCE, CHINA.
23
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |
This social license has been shaken by the global spotlight that has been to 1990 or more recent years.”48 Moreover, in May 2010, the
cast on the environmental and social problems associated with the tar Canadian parliament passed the Climate Change Accountability Act
sands. In response, the oil and gas industry has launched major (Bill C-311), which requires the government to cut greenhouse gas
advertising and social media campaigns.43 It has also launched a political emissions 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% by 2050. The
lobbying campaign in favour of a national energy strategy that Act also requires the government to set regulations that ensure that
incorporates both the planned expansion of fossil fuel extraction as well these targets are met; however, to date, the government has taken no
as modest investments in renewable energy sources and energy efficiency. action in this regard.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, the Canadian The Reference Scenario outlined in this report—based on the
Petroleum Products Institute, the Canadian Gas Association and the International Energy Agency’s Reference Scenario, incorporating
Canadian Energy Pipeline Association, for example, have come together existing energy and environmental policies—would result in Canada’s
to proactively develop and advocate for an “Energy Framework energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 being 32% above
CANADIAN POLICY ISSUES
Initiative” that would form the basis of such a strategy.44 This Initiative 1990 levels. The Energy [R]evolution scenarios outlined in this
is explicitly geared towards ensuring the industry’s social license for the report, on the other hand, would actually achieve the level of
expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure and as a response to what the reduction that the Canadian government has accepted as its goal for
associations describe as “uninformed media and public reactions 2050. The basic Energy [R]evolution scenario would reduce Canadian
against energy development.”45 energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 by 84%, relative to
1990 levels, while the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario would
Energy companies have also joined together to advocate for a national
cut Canadian emissions by 94%, relative to 1990 levels.
energy strategy. In 2009, for example, the major tar sands companies
(along with other energy players) formed the Energy Policy Institute of There may well be other energy mixes that could achieve an 80% or
Canada (EPIC), headed by former Cabinet minister David Emerson, greater reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. But in light of the
with a “singular focus on one task: to draft an energy strategy and transformative nature of the changes outlined in the Energy [R]evolution
policy recommendations.” This approach, however, is rooted in the scenarios, it is clear that a tweaking of the status quo—as proposed to
energy status quo, as shown by EPIC’s Guiding Principles, which date by the oil and gas industry and as envisioned in the Harper
include “advance the primacy of the Canada-United States energy government’s Energy Superpower ambitions anchored in “an ocean of oil-
relationship” and “help design regulatory processes that aid, rather soaked sand”—won’t even come close to getting the job done.
than impede, responsible energy development.”46
And many of Canada’s major think tanks and business groups have also 2.1.4 energy [r]evolution and the tar sands
joined in this call. The recent “Banff Dialogue” organized in April 2010
Unlike the electricity system, which is primarily regional, the market for
was a “group convened by Canada’s leading Think Tanks [which] included
oil is global. So in this case, we need to look at how the global Energy
representatives of major Canadian corporations involved with all forms of
[R]evolution scenario would affect the global demand for oil.
energy, members of the Energy Policy Institute of Canada, the Energy
Framework Initiative, the Canada Council of Chief Executives and the Canada already produces more oil than it consumes, so the Canadian
Canadian Chamber of Commerce” that came to the “unanimous view government’s Energy Superpower ambitions are premised on the
that there was a definite need for a ‘Canadian Clean Energy Strategy’ and world’s not being able to do without oil from the tar sands. This is
it is needed now.”47 echoed by companies like BP, that have been responding to criticism
of their ventures into unconventional oil by citing projected future
It is, of course, not surprising that the oil and gas industry would seek
energy needs from the International Energy Agency (IEA).49
to defend its interests (as it sees them now), in the face of criticism
from environmental organizations, First Nations, members of the
public, and shareholders concerned with the social and environmental references
implications of the status quo. 44 FOR EXAMPLE, IN PREFACING HER PRESENTATION ON THE ENERGY FRAMEWORK
INITIATIVE TO THE 2010 NATIONAL ENERGY BOARD–ORGANIZED ENERGY FUTURES
Indeed, its support for a national energy strategy in Canada is a CONFERENCE, THE PRESIDENT AND CEO OF THE CANADIAN ENERGY PIPELINE
ASSOCIATION, BARBARA KENNEY, ARGUED THAT A NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY WAS
welcome development, as the Energy [R]evolution scenarios described in “VITAL” FOR CANADA’S FUTURE.
this report are intended to inform the debate on such a strategy. 45 SEE: “SIX PILLARS OF ENERGY POLICY,” ONLINE AT
<HTTP://WWW.ENERGYFRAMEWORK.CA/PAPERS/SAMPLE-PAPER/?PAGE=5>.
It would be unacceptable, however, for such a debate to be limited to 46 SEE: <HTTP://WWW.CANADASENERGY.CA/GUIDING-PRINCIPLES/>.
47 CANADA SCHOOL OF ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT, TOWARDS A TRULY CANADIAN CLEAN
the backrooms dominated by industry lobbyists, or premised upon a ENERGY STRATEGY: SUMMARY OF THE BANFF CLEAN ENERGY DIALOGUE APRIL 8–10,
framework rooted in the status quo. A revolution in our energy system 2010, NATIONAL ROUND TABLE ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY, PUBLIC POLICY
FORUM, AVAILABLE AT
is a fundamental prerequisite for our environmental and economic <HTTP://WWW.OREG.CA/WEB_DOCUMENTS/CANADIAN_CLEAN_ENERGY_STRATEGY.PDF>.
well-being, and needs an informed public debate. 48 G8 L’AQUILA DECLARATION, RESPONSIBLE LEADERSHIP FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE,
JULY 2009, SECTION 65.
49 SEE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE RESPONSE OF BP TO THE QUESTION “DOES THE WORLD NEED
At the L’Aquila G8 Summit in 2008, the Harper government OIL FROM THE OIL SANDS” ON PAGE 12 OF ITS OPERATING AT THE ENERGY FRONTIERS:
supported a commitment to an aggregate industrial country SUSTAINABILITY REVIEW 2009, WHICH EXPLICITLY CITES THE IEA’S REFERENCE
SCENARIO.
greenhouse gas reduction target of “80% or more by 2050 compared 50 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, P. 44.
24
image A WORKER ASSEMBLES WIND
TURBINE ROTORS AT GANSU JINFENG
© GP/MARKEL REDONDO
WIND POWER EQUIPMENT CO. LTD. IN
JIUQUAN, GANSU PROVINCE, CHINA.
heavily affected.”55
80
Even this, however, is a very risky strategy with respect to protecting
human and natural communities from dangerous levels of global warming. 60
In order to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, we
must keep the global temperature increase as far below 2°C as possible 40
rather than gamble on a 50/50 chance of missing this upper limit. As
noted in the introduction to this report, the latest science shows that a 20
warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels would pose unacceptable risks
to many of the world’s key natural and human systems. 0
2008 2030: IEA 2030: IEA 2030: 2030:
If rising temperatures are to be kept within acceptable limits, Reference Low Carbon Energy Advanced
Scenario Scenario Revolution Energy
greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced in line with the Energy Revolution
[R]evolution scenarios. This implies elimination of risky, high-carbon
unconventional sources such as the tar sands. •• UNCONVENTIONAL OIL
CONVENTIONAL OIL
The main demand for oil comes from the transport sector. This demand
is projected to increase substantially over the coming decades, requiring references
major investments in exploration and development of new supplies from 51 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, P. 44.
52 CITED IN: IEA, NEWS RELEASE, 10 NOVEMBER 2009.
increasingly risky and expensive sources. In the IEA’s reference 53 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, P. 196.
scenario, demand for oil rises from 84.7 million barrels per day in 2008 54 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, TABLE 3.2, P. 142.
55 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, P. 216.
to 105.2 million barrels per day in 2030, with unconventional oil 56 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, P. 81.
25
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |
2.2 ftsm: a support scheme for renewable power experience of feed-in tariffs
in developing countries
• Feed-in tariffs are seen as the best way forward, especially in
This section outlines a Greenpeace proposal for a feed-in tariff system developing countries. By 2009 this system had incentivised 75% of
in developing countries whose additional costs would be financed by PV capacity worldwide and 45% of wind capacity.
developed nations. The financial resources for this could come from a
• Based on experience, feed-in tariffs are the most effective
combination of innovative sources, could be managed by the
mechanism to create a stable framework to build a domestic
Copenhagen Green Climate Fund (that still needs to be established),
market for renewables. They have the lowest investment risk,
and the level of contributions should be set through the GDR
highest technology diversity, lowest windfall profits for mature
framework (see 2.3).
technologies and attract a broad spectrum of investors.61
Both Energy [R]evolution scenarios show that renewable electricity
• The main argument against them is the increase in electricity prices for
FTSM
26
image LE NORDAIS WINDMILL PARK, ONE
OF THE MOST IMPORTANT IN AMERICA,
LOCATED ON THE GASPÈ PENINSULA IN
CAP-CHAT, QUEBEC, CANADA.
© GP
FTSM
over the whole lifetime (about 20 years) of each project.
2.2.2 the feed-in tariff support mechanism In order to be eligible, all renewable energy projects must have a
The basic aim of the FTSM is to facilitate the introduction of feed-in clear set of environmental criteria which are part of the national
laws in developing countries by providing additional financial resources licensing procedure in the country where the project will generate
on a scale appropriate to the circumstances of each country. For those electricity. Those criteria will have to meet a minimum environmental
countries with higher levels of potential renewable capacity, the creation standard defined by an independent monitoring group. If there are
of a new sectoral no-lose mechanism generating emission reduction already acceptable criteria developed these should be adopted rather
credits for sale to Annex I countries, with the proceeds being used to than reinventing the wheel. The members of the monitoring group
offset part of the additional cost of the feed-in tariff system, could be would include NGOs, energy and finance experts as well as members
appropriate. For others there would need to be a more directly funded of the governments involved. Funding will not be made available for
approach to paying for the additional costs to consumers of the tariff. speculative investments, only as soft loans for FTSM projects.
The ultimate objective would be to provide bankable and long term The FTSM would also seek to create the conditions for private sector
stable support for the development of a local renewable energy market. actors, such as local banks and energy service companies,
The tariffs would bridge the gap between conventional power generation to gain experience in technology development, project development,
costs and those of renewable generation. project financing and operation and maintenance in order to develop
track records which would help reduce barriers to further renewable
the key parameters for feed in tariffs under FTSM are: energy development.
• Payments based on actual generation in order to achieve properly • The mechanism will guarantee payment of the feed-in tariffs over a
maintained projects with high performance ratios. period of 20 years as long as the project is operated properly.
• Payment of the ‘additional costs’ for renewable generation based on • The mechanism will receive annual income from emissions trading
the German system, where the fixed tariff is paid minus the or from direct funding.
wholesale electricity price which all generators receive. • The mechanism will pay feed-in tariffs annually only on the basis of
• Payment could include an element for infrastructure costs such as generated electricity.
grid connection, grid re-enforcement or the development of a smart • Every FTSM project must have a professional maintenance
grid. A specific regulation needs to define when the payments for company to ensure high availability.
infrastructure costs are needed in order to achieve a timely market
expansion of renewable power generation. • The grid operator must do its own monitoring and send generation
data to the FTSM fund. Data from the project managers and grid
A developing country which wants to take part in the FTSM would operators will be compared regularly
need to establish clear regulations for the following: to check consistency.
• Guaranteed access to the electricity grid for renewable
electricity projects.
• Establishment of a feed-in law based on successful examples.
• Transparent access to all data needed to establish the feed-in tariff,
including full records of generated electricity.
• Clear planning and licensing procedures.
27
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |
FTSM
roles and responsibilities
FTSM SCHEME
2.2.3 financing the energy [r]evolution with ftsm financial parameters From the beginning of the financial crisis in
mid-2008 it became clear that inflation rates and capital costs were
Based on both Energy [R]evolution Scenarios for developing (non-
likely to change very fast. The cost calculations in this programme do
OECD) countries, a calculation has been done to estimate the costs and
not take into account changes in interest rates, capital costs or
benefits of an FTSM programme using the following assumptions:
inflation; all cost parameters are nominal based on 2009 levels.
power generation costs The average level of feed-in tariffs, excluding
key results The FTSM programme would cover 624TWh by 2015
solar, has been calculated on the assumption that the majority of
and 4,960 TWh by 2030 of new renewable electricity generation and
renewable energy sources require support payments of between 7 and 15
save 77.6 GtCO2 between 2010 and 2030. This works out at 3.8
cents per kilowatt-hour. While wind and bio energy power generation can
GtCO2 per year under the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario and 82
operate on tariffs of below 10 cents per kWh, other technologies, such as
GtCO2 or 4.1 GtCO2 per year under the advanced version. With an
geothermal and concentrated solar power, will need slightly more. Exact
average CO2 price of $23.1 per tonne, the total programme would
tariffs should be calculated on the basis of specific market prices within
cost $1.62 trillion. This works out at $76.3 billion annually under the
each country. The feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic projects reflects
basic version and $1.29 trillion or $61.4 billion annually under the
current market price projections. The average conventional power
advanced scenario.
generation costs are based on new coal and gas power plants without
direct or indirect subsidies. Under the GDR scheme, this would mean that the EU-27 countries
would need to cover 22.4% ($ billion 289) of these costs, or $14.4
specific CO2 reduction per kWh The assumed CO2 reduction per
annually. The costs for the USA would amount to
kWh from switching to renewables is crucial for calculating the
$24.9 billion each year. India, on the other hand, would receive $13
specific cost per tonne of CO2 saved. In non-OECD countries the
billion per year between 2010 and 2030 to finance the domestic
current level of CO2 emissions for power generation averages
uptake of renewable power generation.
871 gCO2/kWh, and will reduce to 857 gCO2/kWh by 2030 (see
Reference scenario Chapter 6). The average level of CO2 emissions The FTSM will bridge the gap between now and 2030, when
over the period from 2010 to 2020 is therefore 864 gCO2/kWh. electricity generation costs for all renewable energy technologies are
projected to be lower than conventional coal and gas power plants.
table 2.1: assumptions for ftsm calculations However, this case study has calculated even lower generation costs
for conventional power generation than we have assumed in our price
KEY AVERAGE AVERAGE projections for the Energy [R]evolution scenario (see Chapter 5, page
PARAMETER FEED-IN FEED-IN
TARIFF EXCL. TARIFF FOR 52, Table 5.3.). This is because we have excluded CO2 emission costs.
SOLAR PV SOLAR PV If these are taken into account coal power plants would have
(ct/kWh) (ct/kWh)
generation costs of 10.8 $cents/kWh by 2020 and 12.5 cents/kWh by
2010 12 20
2030, as against the FTSM assumption of 10 cents/kWh over the
2020 11 15 same timescale. However, the advanced Energy [R]evolution case
2030 10 10 takes those higher costs into account and reaches economies of scale
28
image A WOMAN STUDIES SOLAR POWER SYSTEMS AT
THE BAREFOOT COLLEGE. THE COLLEGE SPECIALISES
IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND PROVIDES A
© GP/EMMA STONER
SPACE WHERE STUDENTS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD
CAN LEARN TO UTILISE RENEWABLE ENERGY. THE
STUDENTS TAKE THEIR NEW SKILLS HOME AND GIVE
THEIR VILLAGES CLEAN ENERGY. 2
FTSM SCHEME
35
30
25
cents/kWh
20
15
10
0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
•
•
AVERAGE FEED-IN TARIFF - EXCL SOLAR
AVERAGE FEED-IN TARIFF - SOLAR
table 2.2: ftsm key parameters - energy [r]evolution table 2.3: ftsm key parameters - adv energy [r]evolution
KEY CONVENTIONAL INTEREST SPECIFIC REDUCTION KEY CONVENTIONAL INTEREST SPECIFIC REDUCTION
PARAMETER POWER GENERATION RATES (%) PER KWH (gCO2/kWh) PARAMETER POWER GENERATION RATES (%) PER KWH (gCO2/kWh)
COSTS (ct/kWh) COSTS (ct/kWh)
2010 7 4 0.7 2010 7 4 0.7
2020 10 4 0.7 2020 11 4 0.7
2030 10 4 0.7 2030 12.5 4 0.7
KEY RESULTS YEAR AVERAGE CO2 COST AVERAGE ANNUAL TOTAL ANNUAL TOTAL CO2 TOTAL COSTS
TOTAL NON-OECD PER TONNE [$/ TCO2] CO2 EMISSION COSTS CERTIFICATES PER PERIOD
CREDITS (BILLION US$) PER PERIODE (BILLION $)
(MILLION T CO2) (MILLION T CO2)
Period 1 E[R] 2010-2019 27.8 2,080.4 57.9 20,804 579
Period 1 adv E[R] 2010-2019 26.3 2,199.3 57.9 21,993 579
Period 2 E[R] 2020-2030 18.3 5,165.8 94.7 56,824 1,042
Period 2 adv E[R] 2020-2030 11.9 5,461.0 64.8 60,071 713
Period 1+2 E[R] 2010-2030 23.1 3,623.1 76.3 77,628 1,621
Period 1+2 adv E[R] 2010-2030 19.1 3,830.1 61.4 82,064 1,292
29
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |
table 2.5: renewable power for non-oecd countries under ftsm programme
ELECTRICITY 2007 2015 2020 2030 INSTALLED 2007 2015 2020 2030
GENERATION CAPACITY
(TWh/a) (GW)
Wind E[R] 23.6 307.0 854.5 2,238.0 Wind E[R] 15 138 347 865
PV E[R] 0.2 22.0 105.4 673.0 PV E[R] 0 14 59 383
Biomass E[R] 41.2 218.0 488.5 950.0 Biomass E[R] 7 44 100 173
Geothermal E[R] 21.6 50.5 111.0 251.0 Geothermal E[R] 4 9 19 44
Solar Thermal E[R] 0.0 21.7 112.1 798.0 Solar Thermal E[R] 0 9 36 130
FTSM SCHEME
Ocean Energy E[R] 0.0 4.6 27.4 48.5 Ocean Energy E[R] 0 1 8 14
Total - new RE E[R] 86.7 623.8 1,699.0 4,958.5 Total - new RE E[R] 26.2 214.1 570.7 1,610.3
Wind adv E[R] 23.6 312.0 1,092.0 2,949.0 Wind adv E[R] 15 140 443 1,142
PV adv E[R] 0.2 22.0 204.0 998.0 PV adv E[R] 0 14 114 560
Biomass adv E[R] 41.2 218.0 487.0 946.0 Biomass adv E[R] 7 44 100 173
Geothermal adv E[R] 21.6 55.4 164.0 715.0 Geothermal adv E[R] 4 10 28 117
Solar Thermal adv E[R] 0.0 24.7 281.0 1,550.0 Solar Thermal adv E[R] 0 10 91 255
Ocean Energy adv E[R] 0.0 4.6 67.0 237.0 Ocean Energy adv E[R] 0 1 20 70
Total - new RE adv E[R] 86.7 636.7 2,295.0 7,395.0 Total - new RE adv E[R] 26.2 218.1 795.1 2,316.2
2.3 the greenhouse development rights framework 2.3.1 calculating greenhouse gas emissions under
the greenhouse development rights framework
The Energy [R]evolution in Canada will be part of a global
transformation of the way we produce, distribute and consume energy. The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework (GDR) calculates
As one of the wealthiest countries in the world and as a nation that national shares of global greenhouse gas obligations based on a
has contributed disproportionately towards creating the current combination of responsibility (contribution to climate change) and
problem, Canada must contribute its fair share to the global Energy capacity (ability to pay). Crucially, the GDR takes inequality within
[R]evolution. countries into account and calculates national obligations on the basis of
the estimated capacity and responsibility of individuals. Individuals with
The Energy [R]evolution scenarios present a range of pathways
incomes below a “development threshold”—specified in the default case
toward a future based on an increasing proportion of renewable
as $7,500 per capita annual income, adjusted for purchasing power parity
energy, but such routes are only likely to be followed if their
(PPP)—are exempted from climate-related obligations. Individuals with
corresponding investment costs are shared fairly under some form of
incomes above that level are expected to contribute to the costs of global
global climate regime. To demonstrate how this would be possible, we
climate policy in proportion to their capacity (amount of income over the
have used the Greenhouse Development Rights Framework (GDR),
threshold) and responsibility (cumulative CO2 emissions since 1990,
designed by EcoEquity and the Stockholm Environment Institute.62
excluding emissions corresponding to consumption below the threshold).
The GDR provides a tool for distributing both emission reduction and
The calculations of capacity and responsibility are then combined into
finance targets equitably among the countries of the world.
a joint responsibility and capacity indicator (RCI) by taking the
Greenpeace advocates that industrialized countries, as a group, should
average of the two values. Thus, for example, as shown in Table 2.6,
reduce their emissions by at least 40% by 2020 (from 1990 levels),
Canada, with 0.5% of the world’s population, has 2.6% of the
and that developing countries, as a group, should reduce their
world’s capacity in 2010, 3.1% of the world’s responsibility and
emissions by at least 15% by 2020, compared to their projected
2.9% of the calculated RCI. This means that in 2010, Canada would
growth in emissions. On top of these commitments, Greenpeace urges
be responsible for 3.1% of the costs of global climate policy.
industrialized countries to provide financial resources of at least
US$140 billion per year to fund climate change mitigation and Because the system calculates obligations based on the characteristics
adaptation in developing countries. Below, we show how the GDR will of individuals, and all countries have at least some individuals with
work for implementing the Energy [R]evolution scenarios. incomes over the development threshold, the GDR would eliminate the
overarching formal distinction in the Kyoto Protocol between Annex I
and non–Annex I countries. There would of course still be key
differences between rich and poor countries, as rich countries would
references
62 KARTHA, S., P. BAER, T. ATHANASIOU AND E. KEMP-BENEDICT, “THE GREENHOUSE
be expected to pay for reductions made in other countries as well as
DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS FRAMEWORK”, CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1(2):147-165 (2009). make steep domestic emissions reductions, while poor countries could
30
image CHECKING THE SOLAR PANELS
© GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGA
ON TOP OF THE GREENPEACE POSITIVE
ENERGY TRUCK IN BRAZIL.
expect the majority of the incremental costs for emissions reductions standard GDR has been slightly modified to account for the most recent
required within their borders to be paid for by wealthier countries. IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 baseline emissions and economic
Similarly, the national obligations calculated through the GDR could growth scenario up to 2030, and for the target pathways defined by the
be used to allocate contributions to a global adaptation fund; again, Energy [R]evolution and Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenarios.
even poor countries would have some positive obligations to Because the GDR calculates the share of global climate obligation for
contribute, but they would expect to be net recipients of adaptation each country, it can therefore be used to calculate (against a baseline)
funds, while rich countries would be net contributors. the amount of reductions required for each country to meet an
international target. Figure 2.4 shows the global obligation required to
A detailed description of the GDR can be found in Baer et al., The
move from the IEA baseline to the emissions pathway in the Energy
Greenhouse Development Rights Framework.63 For this study, the
[R]evolution scenario (declining to 25 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide
figure 2.4: emission reduction wedges under the energy figure 2.5: emission reduction wedges under the advanced
[r]evolution scenario energy [r]evolution scenario
45,000 45,000
40,000 40,000
fossil CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)
35,000 35,000
30,000 30,000
25,000 25,000
20,000 20,000
15,000 15,000
10,000 10,000
5,000 5,000
0 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
references
63 THE GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHT FRAMEWORK” PUBLISHED IN NOVEMBER
•• BAU
UNITED STATES
•• EITs
CHINA
2008, BAER ET AL. 2008
•• OECD EUROPE
OTHER OECD
•• INDIA
OTHER NON-OECD
31
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |
[GtCO2] in 2020 and 21 GtCO2 in 2030), with the reduction divided into emissions (dotted blue and green lines), with the difference resulting from
“wedges” proportional to each country’s share. an international obligation to fund reductions in other countries. In India
and China, by contrast, the allocation of permits is greater than the
Figure 2.5 shows the global emissions reductions required under the
estimated emissions, indicating that other countries will need to support a
Energy [R]evolution scenario, divided into “wedges” proportional to
reduction from the level indicated by the allocation (solid lines) and
each country or region’s responsibility and capacity indicator. Note
projected emissions (dashed lines).
that the size of each wedge in percentage terms changes over time,
consistent with Table 2.6. The largest share is for the United States, Because the forward calculation of the responsibility and capacity
followed by Europe, while the wedges for India and China increase indicator (RCI) depends on the budget that is allocated, the percentage
over time. Africa and Developing Asia have the smallest wedges. reductions of different countries and regions are slightly different under
the Energy [R]evolution and Advanced Energy [R]evolution pathways.
The charts in Figure 2.6 show, for the US, European Union (EU)
Nevertheless, because neither capacity nor responsibility from
countries, India and China, the relationship between domestic emissions
GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS
1990–2010 varies in the two scenarios, the RCIs for specific countries
reductions under the Energy [R]evolution scenarios and the allocation of
are still quite similar, and thus the actual allocations going forward
responsibility through the GDR framework. For the EU and the US, the
differ between the two scenarios primarily because of the stricter targets
allocations (solid blue and green lines) are well below the estimated
in the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario.
4,000 5,000
percent of CO2 emissions
1,000
1,000
0 0
-500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
China India
12,000 4,000
annual CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)
10,000
percent of CO2 emissions
3,000
8,000
6,000 2,000
4,000
1,000
2,000
0 0
BUSINESS AS USUAL
ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION PATHWAY
GDRS ALLOCATION UNDER ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION PATHWAY
GDRS ALLOCATION UNDER ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
32
image WIND TURBINES AT THE NAN
WIND FARM IN NAN’AO. GUANGDONG
PROVINCE HAS ONE OF THE BEST WIND
© GP/XUAN CANXIONG
RESOURCES IN CHINA AND IS ALREADY
HOME TO SEVERAL INDUSTRIAL SCALE
WIND FARMS.
2
33
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |
table 2.7: greenhouse development rights framework (GDR) - applied to the energy [r]evolution scenario
OECD 11,405 10,834 11,716 -882 8,143 9,919 -1,775 2,926 7,253 -4,327
North America 5,756 5,732 6,094 -361 4,357 5,223 -865 1,740 3,655 -1,915
United States 5,009 4,847 5,183 -336 3,618 4,393 -775 1,278 3,043 -1,765
Mexico 302 406 394 12 361 363 -2 276 279 -2
Canada 445 479 516 -37 378 466 -88 186 334 -148
GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS
Europe 4,026 3,263 3,642 -379 2,394 2,947 -553 648 2,209 -1,561
Pacific 1,623 1,838 1,980 -142 1,392 1,749 -357 538 1,389 -851
Non-OECD 9,542 18,023 28,308 885 18,587 16,810 1,777 19,037 14,707 4,330
Transition Economies 4,158 2,598 2,382 216 2,418 1,931 487 2,077 1,440 637
Asia 3,596 11,734 11,170 564 12,498 11,526 972 13,284 10,252 3,032
China 2,277 8,226 7,830 396 8,503 8,033 470 8,065 6,557 1,508
India 607 1,712 1,626 86 2,054 1,807 247 2,861 2,035 826
Other Asia 712 1,796 1,714 82 1,940 1,686 254 2,358 1,660 698
Africa 566 962 1,001 39 922 1,013 91 887 1,031 143
Middle East 608 1,661 1,555 105 1,768 1,439 329 1,978 1,248 730
Latin America 613 1,069 1,030 39 981 901 80 811 736 75
World 20,947 28,857 28,854 26,730 26,729 21,963 21,960
table 2.8: greenhouse development rights framework (GDR) - applied to the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
OECD 11,405 10,524 11,317 -793 7,359 9,327 -1,969 911 5,941 -5,029
North America 5,756 5,575 5,841 -266 3,956 4,749 -793 694 2,724 -2,030
United States 5,009 4,709 4,942 -233 3,267 3,965 -698 370 2,188 -1,818
Mexico 302 399 396 3 341 350 -9 218 246 -29
Canada 445 468 503 -36 349 434 -85 106 290 -184
Europe 4,026 3,160 3,488 -328 2,134 2,908 -774 -11 1,931 -1,942
Pacific 1,623 1,789 1,988 -199 1,269 1,671 -402 229 1,286 -1,057
Non-OECD 9,542 17,892 17,109 783 18,161 16,179 1,983 17,459 12,436 5,022
Transition Economies 4,158 2,571 2,382 189 2,342 1,906 436 1,837 1,303 534
Asia 3,596 11,671 11,142 529 12,266 11,067 1,199 12,301 8,485 3,817
China 2,277 8,178 7,813 366 8,323 7,875 448 7,324 5,744 1,580
India 607 1,709 1,620 90 2,039 1,524 515 2,742 1,332 1,410
Other Asia 712 1,784 1,709 74 1,904 1,667 236 2,236 1,409 827
Africa 566 953 998 44 895 970 74 804 889 85
Middle East 608 1,646 1,571 75 1,729 1,393 336 1,857 1,124 733
Latin America 613 1,051 1,016 34 929 843 86 659 636 23
World 20,947 28,417 28,426 25,520 25,506 18,370 18,377
34
nuclear power and climate protection
GLOBAL A FALSE SOLUTION TO CLIMATE NUCLEAR POWER BLOCKS SOLUTIONS THE DANGERS OF NUCLEAR POWER
PROTECTION SAFETY RISKS
proliferation...”
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN
35
3 Nuclear energy is a relatively minor industry with major problems. It $1000/kW installed.67 Nuclear vendors in Canada and internationally
covers just one sixteenth of the world’s primary energy consumption, have been unable to meet these cost targets. In 2008, US business
nuclear power and climate protection |
a share set to decline over the coming decades. The average age of analysts Moody’s put the cost of nuclear investment as high as
operating commercial nuclear reactors is 23 years,64 so more power $7,500/kWe.68 In 2009, the Ontario government suspended its
stations are being shut down than started. In 2008, world nuclear procurement of new reactors when its competitive bidding process
production fell by 2%, compared to 2006, and the number of revealed new reactors were three to four times more expensive than
operating reactors as of January 2010 was 436, eight fewer than at expected.69 The AECL’s Advanced CANDU design was reported to
the historical peak of 2002.65 cost $10,000/kW, or $26 billion, for a 2,400-MW station. This is ten
times more than AECL’s 2002 cost projection for the Advanced
In terms of new power stations, the amount of nuclear capacity added
CANDU. Areva’s EPR design was reported to cost $7,375KWh or
annually between 2000 and 2009 was on average 2,500 megawatts
$23.6 billion for a 3200 MW station.70 Building 1,400 large reactors
(MW). This was six times less than wind power (14,500 MW per
of 1,000 MW, even at the current cost of about $7,000/kW, would
annum between 2000 and 2009). In 2009, 37,466 MW of new wind
require an investment of US$9.8 trillion.
power capacity was added globally to the grid, compared to only 1,068
MW of nuclear. This new wind capacity will generate as much electricity hazardous: Massive expansion of nuclear energy would necessarily
A FALSE SOLUTION
as 12 nuclear reactors; the last time the nuclear industry managed to lead to a large increase in related hazards. These include the risk of
add this amount of new capacity in a single year was in 1988. serious reactor accidents, the growing stockpiles of deadly, high-level
radioactive waste which will need to be safeguarded for hundreds of
Despite the rhetoric of a “nuclear renaissance,” the industry is
thousands of years, and potential proliferation of both nuclear
struggling with a massive increase in costs and construction delays as
technologies and materials through diversion to military or terrorist
well as safety and security problems linked to reactor operation,
use. The 1,400 large operating reactors in 2050 would generate an
radioactive waste and nuclear proliferation.
annual 35,000 tons of spent fuel (assuming they are light-water
reactors, the most common design for most new projects). This also
3.1 a false solution to climate protection means the production of 350,000 kilograms of plutonium each year,
The promise of nuclear energy to contribute to both climate protection enough to build 35,000 crude nuclear weapons.
and energy supply must be checked against reality. The International Most of the expected electricity demand growth by 2050 will occur in
Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) report Energy Technology Perspectives non–OECD countries. This means that a large proportion of the new
2008,66 for example, has a “Blue Map” scenario that outlines a future reactors would need to be built in those countries in order to have a
energy mix which would halve global carbon emissions by the middle of global impact on emissions. At the moment, the list of countries with
this century. To reach this goal, the IEA assumes a massive expansion of announced nuclear ambitions is long and worrying in terms of their
nuclear power between now and 2050, with installed capacity increasing political situation and stability, especially with the need to guarantee
four-fold and electricity generation reaching 9,857 terawatt-hours against the hazards of accidents and proliferation for many decades.
(TWh) /year, compared to 2,608 TWh in 2007. In order to achieve this, The World Nuclear Association compiled a list of the emerging
32 large reactors (1,000 MW each) would have to be built every year nuclear energy countries in February 2010. In Europe, this included
from now until 2050. This is unrealistic, expensive, hazardous and too Italy, Albania, Serbia, Portugal, Norway, Poland, Belarus, Estonia,
late to make a difference. According to the IEA scenario, even such a Latvia, Ireland, and Turkey. In the Middle East and North Africa:
massive global expansion of nuclear power would only cut carbon Iran and Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
emissions by less than 5%. Yemen, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria and
unrealistic: Such a rapid growth is practically impossible, given the Morocco. In central and southern Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda and
technical limitations. This scale of development was achieved in the Namibia. In South America: Chile, Ecuador and Venezuela. In central
history of nuclear power for only two years, at the peak of the state- and southern Asia: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and
driven boom of the mid-1980s. It is unlikely to be achieved again, not Bangladesh. In South East Asia: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam,
to mention maintained for 40 consecutive years. While 1984 and Thailand, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand.
1985 saw 31 GW of newly added nuclear capacity, the decade
average was 17 GW each year. In the past ten years, less than three
references
large reactors have been brought on line annually, and the current 64 BRITISH PETROLEUM (BP), STATISTICAL REVIEW, 2009.
production capacity of the global nuclear industry cannot deliver 65 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, POWER REACTOR INFORMATION SYSTEM DATABASE.
66 IEA, ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2008—SCENARIOS & STRATEGIES TO 2050, 2008.
more than an annual six units. 67 ATOMIC ENERGY OF CANADA LIMITED, CORPORATE PLAN SUMMARY: 2002–2003 TO
2006–2007, P. 19.
expensive: The IEA scenario assumes very optimistic investment 68 MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE, “NEW NUCLEAR GENERATING CAPACITY: POTENTIAL CREDIT
IMPLICATIONS FOR US INVESTOR OWNED UTILITIES,” MAY 2008.
costs of $2,100/ kilowatt (kW). This estimate reflects the nuclear
69 THE ONTARIO GOVERNMENT DECIDED TO BUY NEW REACTORS BASED ON THE ADVICE OF THE
industry’s cost targets for its Generation III reactors. In 2002, for ONTARIO POWER AUTHORITY, WHICH SAID THAT AN ASSUMED COST FOR NEW NUCLEAR PLANTS
OF $2,972/KW WAS A CONSERVATIVE COST EFFECTIVE. SEE: CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH
example, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) claimed that its
INSTITUTE, ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES: PERFORMANCE AND COST
Generation III reactor design, the Advanced CANDU, would cost CHARACTERISTICS, PREPARED FOR THE ONTARIO POWER AUTHORITY, AUGUST 2005, P. 7.
70 TYLER HAMILTON, “$26B COST KILLED NUCLEAR BID,” TORONTO STAR, 14 JULY 2009.
36
image MEASURING RADIATION LEVELS
OF A HOUSE IN THE TOWN OF PRIPYAT
THAT WAS LEFT ABANDONED AFTER THE
© GP/STEVE MORGAN
NUCLEAR DISASTER.
too late: Climate science says that we need to reach a peak of global 3.3 the dangers of nuclear power 3
greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 and reduce them by 20% by 2020.
•• FINLAND
FRANCE
•• JAPAN
KOREA
references
71 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010:
SCENARIOS AND STRATEGIES TO 2050.
••INDIA
PAKISTAN
••RUSSIA
CHINA
72 MOHAMED ELBARADEI, ‘TOWARDS A SAFER WORLD’, THE ECONOMIST,
18 OCTOBER 2003.
37
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
3 The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3.3.3 safety risks
(IPCC) has also warned that the security threat of trying to tackle
nuclear power and climate protection |
references
73 IPCC WORKING GROUP II, IMPACTS, ADAPTATIONS AND MITIGATION OF CLIMATE 75 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, SAFETY REQUIREMENTS FOR GEOLOGICAL
CHANGE: SCIENTIFIC-TECHNICAL ANALYSES, 1995. DISPOSAL OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE, WS-R-4, 2006.
74 WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION, WASTE MANAGEMENT IN THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE, 76 SEE THE TESTIMONY OF ALBERT SWEETMAN, EXECUTIVE VICE-PRESIDENT, NUCLEAR
INFORMATION AND ISSUE BRIEF, FEBRUARY 2006, AVAILABLE AT <WWW.WORLD- NEW BUILD, ONTARIO POWER GENERATION, STANDING COMMITTEE ON NATURAL
NUCLEAR.ORG/INFO/INF04.HTM>. RESOURCES, EVIDENCE, WEDNESDAY, 18 NOVEMBER 2009.
38
image NUCLEAR REACTOR
IN LIANYUNGANG, CHINA.
© HANSEN/DREAMSTIME
figure 3.2: the nuclear fuel chain 3
SAFETY RISKS
1. uranium mining 4. power plant operation
plutonium from used reactor fuel rods.
Uranium, used in nuclear power Uranium nuclei are split in a nuclear There are now over 230,000 kilograms of
plants, is extracted from mines in reactor, releasing energy which heats plutonium stockpiled around the world
a handful of countries. Over 90% up water. The compressed steam is from reprocessing—five kilograms is
of supply comes from just seven converted in a turbine generator into sufficient for one nuclear bomb.
countries: Canada, Kazakhstan, electricity. This process creates a Reprocessing is not the same as recycling:
Australia, Namibia, Russia, Niger radioactive “cocktail” which involves the volume of waste increases many tens
and Uzbekistan. Mine workers more than 100 products. One of these of times, and millions of litres of
breathe in radioactive gas, from is the highly toxic and long-lasting radioactive waste are discharged into the
which they are in danger of plutonium. Radioactive material can sea and air each day. The process also
contracting lung cancer. Uranium enter the environment through demands the transport of radioactive
mining produces huge quantities accidents at nuclear power plants. The material and nuclear waste by ship, rail,
of mining debris, including worst accident to date happened at air and road around the world. An
radioactive particles that can Chernobyl, Ukraine, in the then–Soviet accident or terrorist attack could release
contaminate surface water and Union, in 1986. A typical nuclear vast quantities of nuclear material into
food. reactor generates enough plutonium the environment. There is no way to
every year for the production of 40 guarantee the safety of nuclear transport.
nuclear weapons.
2. uranium
enrichment 6. waste storage
39
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
G.
.©
RO
PO
PA
STIME
REAM
T /D
40
image GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY
NEAR HOLSSELSNALAR CLOSE
TO REYKJAVIK, ICELAND.
© GP/NICK COBBING
The climate change imperative demands nothing short of an Energy The Energy [R]evolution scenario has a target to achieve energy
[R]evolution. The expert consensus is that this fundamental shift must equity as soon as technically possible. By 2050, the average per
begin immediately and be well underway within the next ten years in capita emissions should be between 1 and 2 tonnes of CO2.
order to avert the worst impacts. What is needed is a complete
4
3.implement clean, renewable solutions and decentralize energy
transformation of the way we produce, consume and distribute energy,
KEY PRINCIPLES
as the power is moved around the electricity grid network and
emissions, are cheaper, and involve less dependence on imported
converted from high transmission voltage down to a supply suitable
fuel. They create more jobs and empower local communities.
for domestic or commercial consumers. The system is innately
Decentralized systems are more secure and more efficient. This is
vulnerable to disruption: localized technical, weather-related, or even
what the Energy [R]evolution must aim to create.
deliberately caused faults can quickly cascade, resulting in widespread
blackouts. Whichever technology is used to generate electricity within “THE STONE AGE DID NOT END FOR LACK OF STONE, AND THE OIL
this old-fashioned configuration, it will inevitably be subject to some, AGE WILL END LONG BEFORE THE WORLD RUNS OUT OF OIL.”
or all, of these problems. At the core of the Energy [R]evolution,
Sheikh Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Arabian oil minister
there therefore needs to be a change in the way that energy is both
produced and distributed.
To stop the earth’s climate from spinning out of control, most of
4.1 key principles the world’s fossil fuel reserves—coal, oil and gas—must remain in
the ground. Our goal is for humans to live within the natural limits
the energy [r]evolution can be achieved of our small planet.
by adhering to five key principles:
4.decouple growth from fossil fuel use Starting in the developed
1.respect natural limits – phase out fossil fuels by the end of countries, economic growth must be fully decoupled from fossil fuel
this century We must learn to respect natural limits. There is only so usage. It is a fallacy to suggest that economic growth must be
much carbon that the atmosphere can absorb. Each year we emit predicated on the increased combustion of these fuels.
over 25 billion tonnes of carbon equivalent from the consumption and
flaring of fossil fuels.77 We are literally filling up the sky. Geological We need to use the energy we produce much more efficiently, and we
resources of coal could provide several hundred years of fuel, but we need to make the transition to renewable energy and away from fossil
cannot burn them and keep within safe limits. Oil and coal fuels quickly in order to enable clean and sustainable growth.
development must be ended. 5.phase out dirty, unsustainable energy We need to phase out coal
While the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario has a reduction target and nuclear power. We cannot continue to build coal plants at a
for energy-related CO2 emissions of 50% from 1990 levels, by 2050, time when emissions pose a real and present danger to both
the Advanced scenario goes one step further and aims for a reduction ecosystems and people. And we cannot continue to fuel the myriad
target of over 80%. nuclear threats by pretending nuclear power can in any way help to
combat climate change. There is no role for nuclear power in the
2.equity and fairness As long as there are natural limits there needs Energy [R]evolution.
to be a fair distribution of benefits and costs within societies,
between nations and between present and future generations. At
one extreme, a third of the world’s population has no access to
electricity, while the most industrialized countries consume much
more than their fair share.
The effects of climate change on the poorest communities are
exacerbated by massive global energy inequality. If we are to
address climate change, one of the principles must be equity and
fairness, so that the benefits of energy services—such as light, heat,
power and transport—are available for all: north and south, rich
and poor. Only in this way can we create true energy security, as
references
well as the conditions for genuine human wellbeing. 77 US ENERGY INFORMATION AGENCY, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ANNUAL 2006.
41
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
4.2 from principles to practice incorporates heat-fired absorption chillers to deliver cooling capacity
in addition to heat and power, will become a particularly valuable
In 2007, renewable energy sources accounted for 13% of the world’s
means of achieving emissions reductions.
4 primary energy demand. Biomass, which is mostly used for heating,
was the main renewable energy source. The share of renewable energy
the energy [r]evolution |
in electricity generation was 18%. The contribution of renewables to 4.2.1 a development pathway
primary energy demand for heat supply was around 24%. About
The Energy [R]evolution envisages a development pathway which
80% of primary energy supply today still comes from fossil fuels, and
turns the present energy supply structure into a sustainable system.
6% from nuclear power.78
There are three main stages to this.
The time is right to make substantial structural changes in the energy
step 1: energy efficiency and equity
and power sector within the next decade. Many power plants in
industrialized countries, such as the US, Japan and the European The Energy [R]evolution is aimed at the ambitious exploitation of the
Union, are nearing retirement; more than half of all operating power potential for energy efficiency. It focuses on current best practice and
FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE
plants are over 20 years old. At the same time, developing countries, technologies that will become available in the future, assuming
such as China, India and Brazil, are looking to satisfy the growing continuous innovation. The energy savings are fairly equally
energy demand created by their expanding economies. distributed over the three sectors: industry, transport and
domestic/business. Intelligent use, not abstinence, is the basic
Within the next ten years, the power sector will decide how this new
philosophy for future energy conservation.
demand will be met, either by fossil and nuclear fuels or by the
efficient use of renewable energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario is The most important energy-saving options are: improved heat insulation
based on a new political framework in favour of renewable energy and building design; super-efficient electrical machines and drives;
and cogeneration, combined with energy efficiency. replacement of old-style electrical heating systems by renewable heat
production (such as solar collectors); and a reduction in energy
To make this happen both renewable energy and cogeneration—on a
consumption by vehicles used for goods and passenger traffic.
large scale and through decentralized, smaller units—have to grow
Industrialized countries, which currently use energy in the most
faster than overall global energy demand. Both approaches must
inefficient way, can reduce their consumption drastically without the loss
replace old generating technologies and deliver the additional energy
of either housing comfort or information and entertainment electronics.
required in the developing world.
The Energy [R]evolution scenario uses energy saved in OECD countries
As it is not possible to switch directly from the current large-scale as a compensation for the increasing power requirements in developing
fossil- and nuclear fuel–based energy system to a full renewable countries. The ultimate goal is stabilization of global energy consumption
energy supply, a transition phase is required to build up the necessary within the next two decades. At the same time, the aim is to create
infrastructure. While remaining firmly committed to the promotion of “energy equity”—shifting the current one-sided waste of energy in the
renewable sources of energy, we appreciate that gas, used in industrialized countries towards a fairer worldwide distribution of
appropriately scaled cogeneration plants, is valuable as a transition efficiently used supply.
fuel and able to drive cost-effective decentralization of the energy
infrastructure. With warmer summers, tri-generation, which references
78 IEA, ENERGY BALANCE OF NON–OECD COUNTRIES, AND ENERGY BALANCE OF OECD
COUNTRIES, 2009.
© DREAMSTIME
© GP/PHILIP REYNAERS
PHONE GETS CHARGED BY A SOLAR
ENERGY POWERED CHARGER.
A dramatic reduction in primary energy demand compared to the to provide sustainable low-emission heating. Although DE
IEA’s reference scenario—but with the same GDP and population technologies can be considered “disruptive” because they do not fit
development—is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant the existing electricity market and system, with appropriate changes
share of renewable energy sources in the overall energy supply they have the potential for exponential growth, promising “creative
4
system, compensating for the phasing-out of nuclear energy and destruction” of the existing energy sector.
city
1. PHOTOVOLTAIC, SOLAR FAÇADES WILL BE A DECORATIVE 3. SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTORS PRODUCE HOT WATER FOR BOTH
ELEMENT ON OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS. THEIR OWN AND NEIGHBOURING BUILDINGS.
PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS WILL BECOME MORE COMPETITIVE
AND IMPROVED DESIGN WILL ENABLE ARCHITECTS TO USE 4. EFFICIENT THERMAL POWER (CHP) STATIONS WILL COME IN
THEM MORE WIDELY. A VARIETY OF SIZES - FITTING THE CELLAR OF A DETACHED
HOUSE OR SUPPLYING WHOLE BUILDING COMPLEXES OR
2. RENOVATION CAN CUT ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF OLD BUILDINGS APARTMENT BLOCKS WITH POWER AND WARMTH WITHOUT
BY AS MUCH AS 80% - WITH IMPROVED HEAT INSULATION, LOSSES IN TRANSMISSION.
INSULATED WINDOWS AND MODERN VENTILATION SYSTEMS.
5. CLEAN ELECTRICITY FOR THE CITIES WILL ALSO COME FROM
FARTHER AFIELD. OFFSHORE WIND PARKS AND SOLAR POWER
STATIONS IN DESERTS HAVE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL.
43
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
renewable heating In the heat supply sector, the contribution of 4.3 new business model
renewables will increase significantly. Growth rates are expected to be
The Energy [R]evolution scenario will also result in a dramatic
similar to those of the renewable electricity sector. Fossil fuels will be
4 increasingly replaced by more-efficient modern technologies, in
change in the business model of energy companies, utilities, fuel
suppliers and the manufacturers of energy technologies. Decentralized
the energy [r]evolution |
TASK & MARKET PLAYER (LARGE SCALE) PROJECT INSTALLATION PLANT OPERATION & FUEL DISTRIBUTION SALES
GENERATION DEVELOPMENT OWNER MAINTENANCE SUPPLY
STATUS QUO Very few new power plants + large scale generation global mining grid operation
central planning in the hand of few IPP´s operations still in the
& utilities hands of
utilities
MARKET PLAYER
Utility
Mining company
Component manufacturer
Engineering companies
& project developers
ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION many smaller power plants + large number of players e.g. no fuel grid operation
decentralized planning IPP´s, utilities, private needed under state
POWER MARKET consumer, building operators (except control
biomass)
MARKET PLAYER
Utility
Mining company
Component manufacturer
Engineering companies
& project developers
references
79 SEE SECTIONS 5.5.4 AND 7.5.1.
44
image THE TRUCK DROPS ANOTHER
LOAD OF WOOD CHIPS AT THE BIOMASS
POWER PLANT IN LELYSTAD,
© GP/BAS BEENTJES
THE NETHERLANDS.
45
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
step 3: optimized integration – renewables 24/7 4.4 the new electricity grid
To accommodate the significantly higher shares of renewable energy The “grid” is the collective name for all the cables, transformers and
4 expected under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, a complete infrastructure that transport electricity from power plants to the end
transformation of the energy system will be necessary. The grid users. In all networks, some energy is lost as it is travels, but moving
the energy [r]evolution |
network of cables and sub-stations that brings electricity to our electricity around within a localized distribution network is more
homes and factories was designed for large, centralized generators efficient and results in less energy loss.
running at huge loads, usually providing what is known as “baseload”
The existing electricity transmission (main grid lines) and distribution
power. Renewable energy has had to fit in to this system as an
system (local network) was mainly designed and planned 40 to 60
additional slice of the energy mix and adapt to the conditions under
years ago. All over the developed world, the grids were built with
which the grid currently operates. If the Energy [R]evolution scenario
large power plants in the middle and high-voltage alternating current
is to be realized, this will have to change.
(AC) transmission power lines connecting up to the areas where the
Some critics of renewable energy say it is never going to be able to power is used. A lower-voltage distribution network then carries the
THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRID
provide enough power for our current energy use, let alone for the current to the final consumers. This is known as a centralized grid
projected growth in demand. This is because it relies mostly on system, and has a relatively small number of large power stations
natural resources, such as the wind and sun, which are not available mostly fuelled by coal or gas.
24/7. Existing practice in a number of countries has already shown
In the future we need to change the grid network so that it does not
that this is wrong, and further adaptations to how the grid network
rely on large, conventional power plants but instead on clean energy
operates will enable the large quantities of renewable generating
from a range of renewable sources. These will typically be smaller-
capacity envisaged in this report to be successfully integrated.
scale power generators distributed throughout the grid. A localized
We already have sun, wind, geothermal sources and running rivers distribution network is more efficient and avoids energy losses during
available right now, whilst ocean energy, sustainably-produced long-distance transmission. There will also be some concentrated
biomass and efficient gas turbines are all set to make a contribution supply from large renewable power plants. Examples of these large
in the future. Clever technologies can track and manage energy-use generators of the future are the massive wind farms already being
patterns, provide flexible power that follows demand through the day, built in Europe’s North Sea and the plan for large areas of
use better storage options, and group customers together to form concentrating solar mirrors to generate energy in Southern Europe or
“virtual batteries.” With all these solutions we can secure the Northern Africa.
renewable energy future needed to avert catastrophic climate change.
The challenge ahead is to integrate new generation sources and at the
Renewable energy 24/7 is technically and economically possible, it
same time phase out most of the large-scale conventional power
just needs the right policy and the commercial investment to get
plants, while still keeping the lights on. This will require novel types of
things moving and “keep the lights on.”83
grids and an innovative power system architecture involving both new
technologies and new ways of managing the network to ensure a
balance between fluctuations in energy demand and supply.
elements in the new power system architecture cells are combined with energy management to balance out the load of
all the users on the system. Smart grids are a way to integrate massive
A hybrid system based on more than one generating source—for
amounts of renewable energy into the system and enable the
example, solar and wind power—is a method of providing a secure
decommissioning of older centralized power stations.
supply in remote rural areas or islands, especially where there is no
grid-connected electricity. This is particularly appropriate in A super grid is a large-scale electricity grid network linking together
developing countries. In the future, several hybrid systems could be a number of countries, or connecting areas with a large supply of
connected together to form a micro-grid, in which the supply is renewable electricity to an area with a large demand—ideally based
managed using smart-grid techniques. on more-efficient high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables. An
example of the former would be the interconnection of all the large
A smart grid is an electricity grid that connects decentralized renewable
renewable-based power plants in the North Sea. An example of the
energy sources and cogeneration and distributes power highly efficiently.
latter would be a connection between Southern Europe and Africa so
Advanced communication and control technologies such as smart
that renewable energy could be exported from an area with a large
electricity meters are used to deliver electricity more cost-effectively,
renewable resource to urban centres where there is high demand.
with lower greenhouse intensity and in response to consumer needs.
Typically, small generators such as wind turbines, solar panels or fuels
references
83 THE ARGUMENTS AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS OUTLINED HERE ARE EXPLAINED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY COUNCIL /GREENPEACE REPORT
[R]ENEWABLES 24/7: INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDED TO SAVE THE CLIMATE, NOVEMBER 2009.
46
image THE WIND TURBINES ARE GOING
TO BE USED FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF
© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
AN OFFSHORE WINDFARM AT
MIDDELGRUNDEN WHICH IS CLOSE
TO COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.
figure 4.3: overview of the future power system with high penetration of renewables
SMART
GRID
CITY
SMART SMART
GRID GRID
CITY CITY
SMART SMART
GRID CITY GRID CITY
SMART SMART
CITY GRID GRID
SMART
GRID
Smart grid using micro grids and virtual power plants
DISTRIBUTED GENERATION GRID
3 x 20kW 90kW 2 x 60kW
wind turbine solar PV gas turbine power grid
APP MINIGRID
minigrid
1kW vertical 30kW gas 23kW 64kW test control room
wind turbine turbine solar PV load bank
+ -
site loads
source ENERGYNAUTICS 47
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
The key elements of this new power system architecture are micro- Finance can often be an issue for relatively poor rural communities
grids, smart grids, and an efficient, large-scale super grid. The three wanting to install such hybrid renewable systems. Greenpeace has
4 types of system will support and interconnect with each other therefore developed a model in which projects are bundled together in
(see Figure 4.3). order to make the financial package large enough to be eligible for
the energy [r]evolution |
48
image THE MARANCHON WIND TURBINE
© GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGA
FARM IN GUADALAJARA, SPAIN IS THE
LARGEST IN EUROPE WITH 104
GENERATORS, WHICH COLLECTIVELY
PRODUCE 208 MEGAWATTS OF
ELECTRICITY, ENOUGH POWER FOR 590,000
PEOPLE, ANUALLY.
Until now, renewable power technology development has put most This type of demand-side management has been simplified by advances
effort into adjusting its technical performance to the needs of the in communications technology. In Italy, for example, 30 million
existing network, mainly by complying with grid codes, which cover innovative electricity counters have been installed to allow remote 4
such issues as voltage frequency and reactive power. However, the meter-reading and control of consumer and service information.86
SMART GRIDS
distributed in the distribution network, partly concentrated in large life example of a VPP is the Combined Renewable Energy Power
power plants such as offshore wind parks. Plant developed by three German companies.87 This system
interconnects and controls 11 wind power plants, 20 solar power
The trade-off is that power system planning will become more
plants, 4 CHP plants based on biomass, and a pumped storage unit, all
complex, due to the larger number of generation assets and the
geographically spread around Germany. The VPP combines the
significant share of variable power generation causing constantly
advantages of the various renewable energy sources by carefully
changing power flows. Smart-grid technology will be needed to
monitoring (and anticipating, through weather forecasts) when the
support power system planning. This will operate by actively
wind turbines and solar modules will be generating electricity. Biogas
supporting day-ahead forecasts and system balancing, providing real-
and pumped storage units are then used to make up the difference,
time information about the status of the network and the generation
either delivering electricity as needed in order to balance short-term
units, in combination with weather forecasts. It will also play a
fluctuations or temporarily storing it.88 Together the combination
significant role in making sure systems can meet the peak demand at
ensures sufficient electricity supply to cover demand.
all times and will make better use of distribution and transmission
assets, thereby keeping the need for network extensions to the A number of mature and emerging technologies are viable options for
absolute minimum. storing electricity. Of these, pumped storage can be considered the
most established technology. Pumped storage involves a type of
To develop a power system based almost entirely on renewable energy
hydroelectric power station that can store energy. Water is pumped
sources will require a new overall power system architecture, including
from a lower-elevation reservoir to a higher elevation during times of
smart-grid technology. This concept will need substantial amounts of
low-cost, off-peak electricity. During periods of high electrical demand,
further work to fully emerge.85 Figure 4.4 shows a simplified graphic
the stored water is released through turbines. Taking into account
representation of the key elements in future renewables-based power
evaporation losses from the exposed water surface, and conversion
systems using smart grid technology.
losses, roughly 70 to 85% of the electrical energy used to pump the
A range of options is available to enable the large-scale integration of water into the elevated reservoir can be regained when it is released.
variable renewable energy resources into the power supply system. Pumped-storage plants can also respond to changes in the power
These include demand-side management, the concept of a “virtual system load demand within seconds.
power plant” and a number of choices for the storage of power.
Pumped storage has been successfully used for many decades
The level and timing of demand for electricity can be managed by all over the world. In 2007, the European Union had 38 GW
providing consumers with financial incentives to reduce or shut off of pumped storage capacity, representing 5% of total
their supply at periods of peak consumption. Such a system is already electrical capacity.
used for some large industrial customers. A Norwegian power supplier
even involves private household customers by sending them a text
message with a signal to shut down. Each household can decide in
advance whether or not it wants to participate. In Germany,
experiments are being conducted with time flexible tariffs so that
washing machines operate at night and refrigerators turn off
references
temporarily during periods of high demand.
85 SEE ALSO ECOGRID PHASE 1 SUMMARY REPORT, AVAILABLE AT:
<HTTP://WWW.ENERGINET.DK/NR/RDONLYRES/8B1A4A06-CBA3-41DA-9402-
B56C2C288FB0/0/ECOGRIDDK_PHASE1_SUMMARYREPORT.PDF>.
86 MARK SCOTT, “HOW ITALY BEAT THE WORLD TO A SMARTER GRID,” DER SPIEGEL
ONLINE, 17 NOVEMBER 2009.
87 SEE ALSO <HTTP://WWW.KOMBIKRAFTWERK.DE/INDEX.PHP?ID=27>.
88 SEE ALSO
<HTTP://WWW.SOLARSERVER.DE/SOLARMAGAZIN/ANLAGEJANUAR2008_E.HTML>.
49
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
4
the energy [r]evolution |
HOUSES WITH
SOLAR PANELS
ISOLATED MICROGRID
SMART GRIDS
OFFICES WITH
SOLAR PANELS
INDUSTRIAL PLANT
• SENSORS ‘ACTIVATED’ – DETECT FLUCTUATIONS AND DISTURBANCES, AND CAN SIGNAL FOR AREAS TO BE ISOLATED
GENERATORS ENERGY FROM SMALL GENERATORS AND SOLAR PANELS CAN REDUCE OVERALL DEMAND ON THE GRID
STORAGE ENERGY GENERATED AT OFF-PEAK TIMES COULD BE STORED IN BATTERIES FOR LATER USE
50
image A LARGE SOLAR SYSTEM OF 63M2
RISES ON THE ROOF OF A HOTEL IN
© GP/EX-PRESS/HEIKE
CELERINA, SWITZERLAND. THE
COLLECTOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HOT WATER AND HEATING SUPPORT AND
CAN SAVE ABOUT 6,000 LITERS OF OIL
PER YEAR. THUS, THE CO2 EMISSIONS
AND COMPANY COSTS CAN BE REDUCED.
51
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
5 “towards
“the technology
sustainable
a
is here, all we
global
need
im
ag
eW
I ND
TU
RB
IN
EI
N SA
MU
TS
A KH
ON
,T HA
I LA
ND
.©
GP
/VI
NA
I DI
TH
AJ
OH
N
is
energy
political
supply
will.”
system.”
GREENPEACE
CHRIS JONES INTERNATIONAL
SUPORTER
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN
AUSTRALIA
52
image AERIAL PHOTO OF THE ANDASOL 1 SOLAR POWER STATION, EUROPE’S FIRST
COMMERCIAL PARABOLIC TROUGH SOLAR POWER PLANT. ANDASOL 1 WILL SUPPLY UP TO
© GP/MARKEL REDONDO
© GP/MARKEL REDONDO
200,000 PEOPLE WITH CLIMATE-FRIENDLY ELECTRICITY AND SAVE ABOUT 149,000
TONNES OF CARBON DIOXIDE PER YEAR COMPARED WITH A MODERN COAL POWER PLANT.
Moving from principles to action on energy supply and climate change Given the enormous and diverse potential for renewable power, the
mitigation requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure Advanced scenario also foresees a shift in the use of renewables from power
takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. to heat. Assumptions for the heating sector therefore include a faster
Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. Any analysis expansion of the use of district heat and hydrogen, and more electricity for
that seeks to tackle energy and environmental issues therefore needs process heat in the industry sector. More geothermal heat pumps are also
to look ahead at least half a century. used, which leads, combined with a larger share of electric drives in the 5
transport sector, to a higher overall electricity demand. In addition, a faster
Scenarios are important in describing possible development paths, to
SCENARIO BACKGROUND
2020—ten years ahead of the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario.
gas market reforms, the liberalization of cross-border energy trade, and
recent policies designed to combat environmental pollution. The Reference The global quantities of biomass and large hydro power remain the same
scenario does not take into consideration additional mechanisms to in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, for reasons of sustainability.
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, beyond what are already in place or
These scenarios by no means claim to predict the future; they simply
planned. As the IEA’s projection only covers a time horizon up to 2030,
describe three potential development pathways out of the broad range of
the Reference scenario has extended that horizon by extrapolating key
possible “futures.” The Energy [R]evolution scenarios are designed to
macroeconomic and energy indicators forward to 2050. This provides a
indicate the efforts and actions required to achieve their ambitious
baseline for comparison with the Energy [R]evolution scenarios.
objectives and to illustrate the options we have at hand to change our
The Energy [R]evolution Scenario Energy [R]evolution scenario has energy supply system into one that is sustainable.
a key target of reducing worldwide carbon dioxide emissions down to a
level of around 10 gigatonnes per year by 2050, in order to keep the
5.1 scenarios background
increase in global temperature under +2°C. A second objective is the
global phasing-out of nuclear energy. First published in 2007, then The scenarios in this report were jointly commissioned by Greenpeace and
updated and expanded in 2008, this latest revision of the E[R] scenario the European Renewable Energy Council from the Institute of Technical
also serves as a baseline for the more ambitious Advanced Energy Thermodynamics, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR). The
[R]evolution scenario. To achieve its targets, the Advanced scenario is supply scenarios were calculated using the MESAP/PlaNet simulation
characterized by significant efforts to fully exploit the large potential model adopted in the previous Energy [R]evolution studies. Some detailed
for energy efficiency, using currently available best-practice technology. analyses carried out during preparation of the 2008 Energy [R]evolution
At the same time, all cost-effective renewable energy sources are used study were also used as input to this update. The energy demand
for heat and electricity generation as well as the production of biofuels. projections were developed for the 2008 study by Ecofys Netherlands,
The general framework parameters for population and GDP growth based on an analysis of the future potential for energy efficiency
remain unchanged from those of the Reference scenario. measures. The biomass potential, judged according to Greenpeace
sustainability criteria, has been developed especially for these scenarios by
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution Scenario is aimed at an even
the German Biomass Research Centre. The future development pathway
stronger decrease in CO2 emissions, especially given the uncertainty that
for car technologies is based on a special report produced in 2008 by the
even ten gigatonnes allowed per year might be too much to keep global
Institute of Vehicle Concepts, DLR for Greenpeace International.
temperature rises at bay. All general framework parameters, such as
population and economic growth, remain unchanged. The efficiency For details on these studies, as well as the assumptions on population and
pathway for industry and “other sectors” is also the same as in the basic economic growth rates, see the 2010 global Energy [R]evolution report.
Energy [R]evolution scenario. What is different is that the Advanced
references
scenario incorporates a stronger effort to develop better technologies to 91 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, ‘WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2007’, 2007
achieve CO2 reduction. So the transport sector factors in lower demand 92 SEE: PROF. ARTHOUROS ZERVOS, CHRISTINE LINS AND JOSCHE MUTH, RE-THINKING
2050: A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY VISION FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION, EUROPEAN
(compared to the basic scenario), resulting from a change in driving RENEWABLE ENERGY COUNCIL (EREC), APRIL 2010.
patterns, a faster uptake of efficient combustion vehicles, and—after 93 GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE WORLD
ENERGY OUTLOOK, 2007 AND 2008.
2025—a larger share of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
53
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
5.2 oil and gas price projections As the supply of natural gas is limited by the availability of pipeline
infrastructure, there is no world market price for gas. In most regions of
The recent dramatic fluctuations in global oil prices have resulted in
the world, the gas price is directly tied to the price of oil. Gas prices are
slightly higher forward price projections for fossil fuels. Under the
therefore assumed to increase to $25–30/gigajoule (GJ) by 2050.
2004 “high oil and gas price” scenario from the European
5 Commission, for example, an oil price of just CA$39 per barrel (bbl)
was assumed in 2030. More recent projections of oil prices by 2030 5.3 cost of CO2 emissions
scenarios for a future energy supply |
UNIT 2000 2005 2007 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Crude oil imports
IEA WEO 2009 “Reference” barrel 38.93 56.75 85.13 110.31 98.37 113.50 122.01 130.53
USA EIA 2008 “Reference” barrel 79.41 93.67
USA EIA 2008 “High Price” barrel 135.91 157.72
Energy [R]evolution 2010 barrel 125.49 147.55 158.90 170.25 150.00 150.00
Biomass (solid)
Energy [R]evolution 2010
OECD Europe GJ 8.4 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.4 11.7 11.9
OECD Pacific and North America GJ 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.9
Other regions GJ 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.6
note GJ = GIGAJOULES.
source 2000–2030: IEA WEO 2009 HIGHER-PRICES SENSITIVITY CASE FOR CRUDE OIL, GAS AND STEAM COAL. 2040–2050 AND OTHER FUELS: ASSUMPTIONS OF AUTHOR.
54
image GEOTHERMAL POWER STATION,
© B. ERICKSON/DREAMSTIME
NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.
© J. GOUGH/DREAMSTIME
image GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY.
5.4 cost projections for efficient fossil fuel Pipeline networks will also need to be constructed to move CO2 to storage
generation and carbon capture and storage (CCS) sites. This is likely to require a considerable outlay of capital.98 Costs will
vary depending on a number of factors, including pipeline length, diameter
While the fossil fuel power technologies in use today for coal, gas,
and manufacture from corrosion-resistant steel, as well as the volume of
lignite and oil are established and at an advanced stage of market
CO2 to be transported. Pipelines built near population centres or on
development, further cost reduction potentials are assumed. The
difficult terrain, such as marshy or rocky ground, are more expensive.99 5
potential for cost reductions is limited, however, and will be achieved
mainly through an increase in efficiency.94 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates a
COST PROJECTIONS
power station configuration, technology, fuel costs, size of project, and
Table 5.3 summarizes our assumptions on the technical and economic
location. One thing is certain, however: CCS is expensive. It requires
parameters of future fossil-fuelled power plant technologies. In spite of
significant funds to construct the power stations and the necessary
growing raw material prices, we assume that further technical innovation
infrastructure to transport and store carbon. The IPCC assesses costs at
will result in a moderate reduction of future investment costs as well as in
$15–75 per tonne of captured CO2 ,95 while a recent US Department of
improved power plant efficiencies. These improvements are, however,
Energy report found that installing carbon capture systems in most
outweighed by the expected increase in fossil fuel prices, resulting in a
modern plants resulted in a near-doubling of costs.96 These costs are
significant rise in electricity generation costs.
estimated to increase the price of electricity by 21–91%.97
table 5.3: development of efficiency and investment costs for selected power plant technologies
POWER PLANT POWER PLANT 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
55
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
supply, requiring a revised coordination with the grid network. But improving existing modules and system components by increasing
although in many cases these are “distributed” technologies—their their energy efficiency and reducing material usage. Technologies like
output being generated for and used locally by the consumer—the PV thin film (using alternative semiconductor materials) or dye-
future will also see large-scale applications in the form of offshore sensitive solar cells are developing quickly and present a huge
wind parks, photovoltaic power plants or concentrating solar power potential for cost reduction. The mature technology known as
stations. crystalline silicon, with a proven lifetime of 30 years, is continually
increasing its cell and module efficiency (by 0.5% annually), while
By using the individual advantages of the different technologies, and
the cell thickness is rapidly decreasing (from 230 to 180 microns
linking them with each other, a wide spectrum of available options can
over the last five years). Commercial module efficiency varies from 14
be developed to market-maturity and integrated step by step into the
to 21%, depending on silicon quality and fabrication process.
existing supply structures. This will eventually provide a
complementary portfolio of environmentally friendly technologies for The learning factor for PV modules has been fairly constant over the
heat and power supply and the provision of transport fuels. last 30 years, with a cost reduction of 20% each time the installed
COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES
56
image AERIAL VIEW OF THE WORLD’S
LARGEST OFFSHORE WINDPARK
IN THE NORTH SEA HORNS REV
© GP/MARTIN ZAKORA
IN ESBJERG, DENMARK.
table 5.5: generation from csp, 2007–2050 table 5.6: generation from wind power, 2007–2050
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy [R]evolution Energy [R]evolution
Global installed capacity (GW) 1 25 105 324 647 1,002 Installed capacity (on+offshore) 95 407 878 1,733 2,409 2,943
Investment costs (Can$/kW)* 8,229 6,329 5,725 4,839 4,767 4,722 Wind onshore
Operation & maintenance 341 284 238 204 182 176 Investment costs (Can$/kWp) 1,714 1,424 1,133 1,081 1,029 1,015
costs (Can$/kW/a)
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 66 58 51 49 47 47
Advanced Energy [R]evolution Wind offshore
Investment costs (Can$/kWp) 3,292 2,497 1,748 1,657 1,510 1,481
Global installed capacity (GW) 1 28 225 605 1,173 1,643
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 188 174 129 110 100 94
Investment costs (Can$/kW)* 8,229 6,329 5,725 4,767 4,722 4,677
Operation & maintenance 341 284 238 204 182 176 Advanced Energy [R]evolution
costs (Can$/kW/a)
Installed capacity (on+offshore) 95 494 1140 2241 3054 3754
note GW = GIGAWATTS; KWP = KILOWATTS PHOTOVOLTAIC; KW/A = KILOWATTS PER ANNUM.
Wind onshore
Investment costs (Can$/kWp) 1,714 1,424 1,133 1,029 1,015 1,001
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 66 58 51 49 47 47
Wind offshore
Investment costs (Can$/kWp) 3,292 2,497 1,748 1,657 1,510 1,481
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 188 174 129 110 100 94
5.5.4 biomass less than half of today’s annual consumption of fuelwood. The remaining
4–5 EJ per year will come from dedicated bioenergy crops, which
The crucial factor for the economics of biomass utilization is the cost of
translates roughly to 10–15 million hectares of dedicated bioenergy
the feedstock, which today ranges from a negative cost for waste wood
cropland needed. This is less than 1% of today’s global cropland and
(based on credit for waste disposal costs avoided) through inexpensive
probably less than today’s already existing bioenergy cropland. Pressure
residual materials to the more-expensive energy crops. The resulting
5 to expand croplands can also be eased through a shift to a less meat-
spectrum of energy generation costs is correspondingly broad. One of the
intensive diet, particularly in the developed world.
most economic options is the use of waste wood in steam turbine combined
scenarios for a future energy supply |
heat and power (CHP) plants. Gasification of solid biomass, on the other A large potential for exploiting modern technologies exists in Latin and
hand, which opens up a wide range of applications, is still relatively North America, Europe, and the countries of transition economies, either
expensive. In the long term, it is expected that favourable electricity in stationary appliances or the transport sector. In the long term, Europe
production costs will be achieved by using wood gas both in micro–CHP and the transition economies will realize 20–50% of the potential for
units (engines and fuel cells) and in gas-and-steam power plants. Great biomass from energy crops, while biomass use in all the other regions will
potential for the utilization of solid biomass also exists for heat generation have to rely on forest residues, industrial wood waste, and straw. In Latin
in both small and large heating centres linked to local heating networks. America, North America and Africa in particular, an increasing residue
Converting crops into ethanol and “biodiesel,” made from rapeseed methyl potential will be available.
ester (RME), has become increasingly important in recent years; for
In other regions, such as the Middle East and all Asian regions, increased
example, in Brazil, the US and Europe. Processes for obtaining synthetic
use of biomass is restricted, either due to a generally low availability or to
fuels from biogenic synthesis gases will also play a larger role.
already high traditional use. For the latter, using modern, more-efficient
At the global level, the Energy [R]evolution scenario assumes roughly 88 technologies will improve the sustainability of current usage and have
COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES
exajoules (EJ) of primary energy coming from biomass in 2050. The positive side effects, such as reducing indoor pollution and the heavy
bulk of this (75 EJ per year) is crop harvest residues (e.g., straw, stalk workloads currently associated with traditional biomass use.
and leaves) and crop process residues (e.g., oilcakes, hulls and shells)
and assumes that the majority (75%) of the crop harvest residues and
5.5.5 geothermal
total crop biomass will remain in the field for carbon and nutrient
recycling purposes. About 8–9 EJ per year will come from wood Geothermal energy has long been used worldwide for supplying heat,
processing residues (e.g,. from sawmills) and discarded wood products. and since the beginning of the last century for electricity generation.
This equals 0.7–0.8 billion cubic metres of wood residues per year, or Geothermally generated electricity was previously limited to sites with
table 5.7: biomass cost assumptions table 5.8: geothermal cost assumptions
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy [R]evolution Energy [R]evolution
Biomass (electricity only) Geothermal (electricity only)
Global installed capacity (GW) 28 48 62 75 87 107 Global installed capacity (GW) 10 19 36 71 114 144
Investment costs (Can$/kW) 3,198 2,783 2,764 2,698 2,666 2,640 Investment costs (Can$/kW) 14,126 12,343 10,423 8,229 6,857 5,897
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 208 188 173 168 167 166 O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 732 632 486 426 398 377
Biomass (CHP) Geothermal (CHP)
Global installed capacity (GW) 18 67 150 261 413 545 Global installed capacity (GW) 1 3 13 37 83 134
Investment costs (Can$/kW) 5,959 4,829 4,224 3,689 3,400 3,230 Investment costs (Can$/kW) 14,401 12,618 10,698 8,503 7,132 6,172
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 459 395 308 268 247 235 O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 734 548 398 334 291 264
58
image A COW INFRONT OF A
BIOREACTOR IN THE BIOENERGY
VILLAGE OF JUEHNDE. IT IS THE FIRST
© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
COMMUNITY IN GERMANY THAT
PRODUCES ALL OF ITS ENERGY NEEDED
FOR HEATING AND ELECTRICITY, WITH
CO2 NEUTRAL BIOMASS.
specific geological conditions, but further intensive research and the resource, and a technology with very low visual impact and no CO2
development work has enabled the potential areas to be widened. In emissions. Many different concepts and devices have been developed,
particular, the creation of large, underground heat-exchange surfaces— including taking energy from the tides, waves, currents and both
enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs)—and the improvement of low- thermal and saline gradient resources. Many of these are in an
temperature power conversion (for example, with the organic Rankine advanced phase of research and development (R&D), large-scale
cycle) open up the possibility of producing geothermal electricity prototypes have been deployed in real sea conditions and some have 5
anywhere. Advanced heat and power cogeneration plants will also reached pre-market deployment. There are a few grid-connected, fully
table 5.9: ocean energy cost assumptions table 5.10: hydro power cost assumptions
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy [R]evolution Energy [R]evolution
Global installed capacity (GW) 0 9 29 73 168 303 Global installed capacity (GW) 922 1,043 1,206 1,307 1,387 1,438
Investment costs (Can$/kW) 8,190 4,417 3,185 2,449 2,045 1,821 Investment costs (Can$/kW) 3,070 3,250 3,351 3,501 3,628 3,739
Operation & maintenance 409 235 133 101 85 75 Operation & maintenance 125 131 140 145 151 155
costs (Can$/kW/a) costs (Can$/kW/a)
59
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
5.5.8 Summary of renewable energy cost development 5.5.9 Assumed growth rates in different scenarios
Figure 5.1 summarizes the cost trends for renewable energy In scientific literature,105 quantitative scenario modelling approaches are
technologies as derived from the respective learning curves. It should broadly separated into two groups: “top-down” and “bottom-up”
be emphasized that the expected cost reduction is basically not a models. While this classification might have made sense in the past, it is
function of time, but of cumulative capacity, so dynamic market less appropriate today, since the transition between the two categories
5 development is required. Most of the technologies will be able to is continuous, and many models, while being rooted in one of the two
reduce their specific investment costs to between 30% and 70% of traditions—macro-economic or energy-engineering—incorporate
scenarios for a future energy supply |
current levels by 2020, and to between 20% and 60% once they aspects from the other approach and thus belong to the class of so-
have achieved full maturity (after 2040). called hybrid models.106 In the energy-economic modelling community,
macro-economic approaches are traditionally classified as top-down
Reduced investment costs for renewable energy technologies lead
models and energy-engineering models as bottom-up. The Energy
directly to reduced heat and electricity generation costs, as shown in
[R]evolution scenario is a bottom-up (technology-driven) scenario and
Figure 5.2. Generation costs today are around CA$0.09–0.28/kWh
the assumed growth rates for renewable energy technology deployment
for the most important technologies, with the exception of
are important drivers.
photovoltaics. In the long term, costs are expected to converge at
around CA$0.05–0.11/kWh. These estimates depend on site-specific Around the world, however, energy modelling scenario tools are under
conditions such as the local wind regime or solar irradiation, the constant development and in the future both approaches are likely to
availability of biomass at reasonable prices, or the credit granted for merge into one, with detailed tools employing both a high level of
heat supply, in the case of combined heat and power generation. technical detail and economic optimisation. To reach the figures seen
in Table 5.11, the Energy [R]evolution scenarios use a classical
COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES
figure 5.1: future development of investment costs figure 5.2: expected development of electricity generation
(NORMALIZED TO CURRENT COST LEVELS) FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY costs from fossil fuel and renewable options
TECHNOLOGIES EXAMPLE FOR OECD NORTH AMERICA
120 40
35
100
30
80
25
60 20
15
40
10
20
5
%0 ct/kWh 0
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
•• PV
WIND ONSHORE
•• PV
WIND
•• WIND OFFSHORE
BIOMASS POWER PLANT
•• BIOMASS CHP
GEOTHERMAL CHP
•• BIOMASS CHP
GEOTHERMAL CHP
• CONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMAL
60
image CONSTRUCTION
OF WIND TURBINES.
© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
table 5.11: assumed annual average growth rates for renewable technologies
Solar
PV-2020 108 437 594 17% 37% 42%
PV-2030 281 1,481 1,953 11% 15% 14%
PV-2050 640 4,597 6,846 10% 13% 15%
CSP-2020 38 321 689 17% 49% 62%
CSP-2030 121 1,447 2,734 14% 18% 17%
CSP-2050 254 5,917 9,012 9% 17% 14%
Wind
On+Offshore-2020 1,009 2,168 2,849 12% 22% 26%
On+Offshore-2030 1,536 4,539 5,872 5% 9% 8%
On+Offshore-2050 2,516 8,474 10,841 6% 7% 7%
Bioenergy
2020 (power generation) 337 373 392 8% 9% 10%
2030 (power generation) 552 456 481 6% 2% 2%
2050 (power generation) 994 717 580 7% 5% 2%
2020 (heat&power) 186 739 742 2% 19% 19%
2030 (heat&power) 287 1,402 1,424 5% 7% 8%
2050 (heat&power) 483 3,013 2,991 6% 9% 9%
Ocean
2020 3 53 119 15% 55% 70%
2030 11 128 420 13% 10% 15%
2050 25 678 1,943 10% 20% 19%
Hydro
2020 4,027 4,029 4,059 2% 2% 2%
2030 4,679 4,370 4,416 2% 1% 1%
2050 5,963 5,056 5,108 3% 2% 2%
note TWH/A = TERAWATT HOURS PER ANNUM; PV = PHOTOVOLTAICS; CSP = CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER.
61
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
map 5.1: CO2 emissions reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO
5
scenarios for a future energy supply |
CO 2 EMISSIONS
EMISSIONS
CO2
LEGEND
62
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES
2007 4,017M 100 4,017 100 2007 1,374 234 1,374 234 2007 5,852 261 5,852 261 2007 2,650 66 2,650 66
CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2
2050 3,798 94 215 5 2050 3,208 546 122 21 2050 12,460H 555 925H 41 2050 3,564 88 258 6
t t t t t t t t
2007 7.44 7.44 2007 6.79M 6.79 2007 4.38 4.38 2007 7.79 7.79
2050 6.61M 0.36 2050 9.08 0.35 2050 8.74 0.65 2050 11.47 0.83H
REF E[R]
mio t % mio t %
CO 2 EMISSIONS
2007 27,408 131 27,408 131
CO2
2050 44,259 211 3,267 16
t t
2007 881L 161 881 161 2007 1,307 222 1,307 222 2007 1,488 216 1,488 216 2007 2,144 136 2,144 136
CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2
2050 1,622L 297 423 77 2050 5,110 868 449 85 2050 3,846M 557 428 62 2050 1,822 116 74 5
t t t t t t t t
2007 0.91L 0.91 2007 1.12 1.12 2007 1.47 1.47 2007 10.70 10.70
2050 0.81L 0.21 2050 3.17 0.31 2050 2.54 0.28 2050 10.14 0.41M
63
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
map 5.2: results reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO
5
scenarios for a future energy supply |
RESULTS
SCENARIO
RESULTS
LEGEND
2007 115,758H 5,221H 115,758H 5,221 2007 22,513L 998 22,513L 998
> +40 > +50 % CHANGE OF ENERGY
CONSUMPTION IN THE ADVANCED 2050 129,374 7,917 70,227 7,925 2050 40,874 2,480 27,311 2,927
ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO 0 1000 KM
2050 COMPARED TO CURRENT % % % %
CONSUMPTION 2007
2007 7 15 7 15 2007 29 70H 29 70H
SHARE OF RENEWABLES %
2050 15 25 85 98 2050 28 57H 88H 98
% % % %
SHARE OF FOSSIL FUELS %
2007 85 67M 85 67M 2007 70L 28L 70L 28L
64
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES
2007 79,599 3,576 79,599 3,576 2007 21,372 715 21,372 715 2007 83,922 3,319 83,922 3,319 2007 48,111M 1,685 48,111M 1,685
2050 82,634 5,351 46,754 4,233 2050 51,281 2,404 27,475 2,786L 2050 183,886H12,188H 107,104H 10,190H 2050 64,449 3,110 34,710 2,438
% % % % % % % %
2007 13 26H NUCLEAR POWER 2007 0L 0 NO NUCLEAR 2007 1 2 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 7M 17 NUCLEAR POWER
PHASED OUT ENERGY PHASED OUT PHASED OUT
2050 8 12 BY 2030 2050 0L 0 DEVELOPMENT 2050 5 7 BY 2045 2050 8 15 BY 2045
REF E[R]
PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh
RESULTS
2007 13 18 13 18
2050 15 24 80 95
% %
2007 81 68 81 68
2050 79 67 20 5
% %
2007 26,355 615L 26,355 615L 2007 25,159 814 25,159 814 2007 31,903 978 31,903 978 2007 37,588 1,851M 37,588 1,851M
2050 43,173 1,826L 35,805 2,490L 2050 77,7610M 4,918 52,120 5,062 2050 69,233 3,721 40,639 3,548 2050 40,793 2,626 21,299L 2,322
% % % % % % % %
2007 0L 2 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 1 2 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 1 5M NUCLEAR POWER 2007 12H 22 NUCLEAR POWER
PHASED OUT PHASED OUT PHASED OUT PHASED OUT
2050 0L 2 BY 2025 2050 3 3 BY 2045 2050 2 2 BY 2045 2050 24H 33H BY 2045
65
key results: the canadian energy [r]evolution scenario
CANADA CANADIAN ENERGY DEMAND TO 2050 FUTURE EMPLOYMENT CANADA’S PRIMARY ENERGY
ELECTRICITY GENERATION HEATING AND COOLING SUPPLY CONSUMPTION
FUTURE COSTS OF ELECTRICITY TRANSPORT FUTURE INVESTMENT
GENERATION CANADA’S CO2 EMISSIONS
RP
OLA
L. ©
ANE
BER
JUE
ND
DRE
NS/
RGE
STI
AM
E
M
66
image SOLAR PANEL ON MEDIA ADVERTISING, VANCOUVER, BC, CANADA.
© ANNA RZEPKOWSKA/ISTOCK
image WIND TURBINES UNDER THE SUN, ONTARIO, CANADA.
© PGIAM/ISTOCK
6.1 canadian energy demand to 2050 Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the
basic Energy [R]evolution scenario demand for heat supply
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth,
constantly decreases through 2050 (see Figure 6.3). Compared to
and energy intensity results in future development pathways for
the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 2,094 PJ/a is
Canada’s final energy demand. These are shown in Figure 6.1 for the
avoided through efficiency gains by 2050 in both Energy
Reference and both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference
[R]evolution scenarios. As a result of energy-related renovation of
key results |
scenario, final energy demand (without non-energy use) increases by
the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the
28% from the current 7,614 petajoules per annum (PJ/a) to 9,746
introduction of low-energy standards and of “passive houses” for
PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final energy demand
new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services
decreases by 44% compared to current consumption and is expected to
will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand
reach 4,280 PJ/a by 2050.
figure 6.1: projection of final energy demand in canada to 2050, by sector, under three scenarios
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
•• ‘EFFICIENCY’
OTHER SECTORS
1,000
PJ/a 0
•• INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
67
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
figure 6.2: development of electricity demand in canada to figure 6.3: development of heat demand in canada to
2050, by sector, under three scenarios 2050, by sector, under three scenarios
3,500 4,000
3,000 3,500
3,000
2,500
2,500
6 2,000
2,000
key results |
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500 500
PJ/a 0 PJ/a 0
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
•• •••
‘EFFICIENCY’ ‘EFFICIENCY’
OTHER SECTORS OTHER SECTORS
•• INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
INDUSTRY
68
© F LARIVIERE/DREAMSTIME.COM
image HIGH VOLTATE STEEL
PYLONS, CANADA.
© ANDREW WRIGHT / GP
image WATERFALL IN THE GREAT
BEAR RAINFOREST, IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA, CANADA.
figure 6.4: development of electricity generation structure in canada to 2050, under three scenarios
(REFERENCE, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION AND ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION) [“EFFICIENCY” = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO]
1,100
1,000
•••
‘EFFICIENCY’
900
OCEAN ENERGY
800 SOLAR THERMAL
•• GEOTHERMAL
key results |
700
BIOMASS
600
500
•• PV
WIND
•• HYDRO
100
•• LIGNITE
COAL
TWh/a 0
REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv
• NUCLEAR
6.3 future costs of electricity generation figure 6.5: development of total electricity generation
costs & development of specific electricity generation
Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in electricity
costs to 2050, under three scenarios
demand, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2
emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from
CA$37 billion in 2007 to CA$92 billion in 2050, as shown in Figure B $/a $¢/kWh
6.5. The Energy [R]evolution scenarios not only dramatically reduce 110 12
greenhouse gases, but also help to stabilize energy costs and relieve 100
90 10
economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and
80
shifting energy supply to renewables result in long-term costs for 8
70
electricity supply that are 45% lower in the Advanced Energy
60
[R]evolution scenario and 50% lower in the Energy [R]evolution 50
6
scenario. The higher total cost of the Advanced Energy [R]evolution 40 4
scenario, as compared to the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario, 30
results from a higher requirement for electricity due to the increasing 20 2
electrification of the transport and heating sectors. 10
0 0
Figure 6.6 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
under the Energy [R]evolution scenario has slightly higher specific
costs for electricity generation, compared to those under the
Reference scenario, until 2045. The Advanced Energy [R]evolution
scenario has slightly higher specific costs until 2035. The lower costs
•••
seen under the Energy [R]evolution scenarios are due to the reduced ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION - ‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES
CO2 intensity of electricity generation and the related costs for REFERENCE SCENARIO
emission allowances, as well as to better economies of scale in the ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO
production of renewable power equipment.
In 2050, specific costs (for both generation and efficiency measures)
• ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO
69
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
Table 6.2 shows the increase in job numbers under both Energy
[R]evolution scenarios, for each technology, up to 2030. Both scenarios • Energy efficiency measures reduce the currently growing demand for
show losses in coal generation, but these are outweighed by heating and cooling, despite the improvement of living standards.
employment growth in renewable technologies and gas. Wind shows
• In the industrial sector, solar thermal systems, sustainable
particularly strong growth in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios by
biomass/biogas, and geothermal energy are increasingly substituted for
2020, but by 2030 there is significant employment across a range of
conventional fossil-fuelled heating systems.
renewable technologies. In both Energy [R]evolution scenarios,
renewable power jobs reach over 70% of total energy sector jobs by • In the industrial sector, solar thermal systems, sustainable
2020, with a share of over 80% by 2030. biomass/biogas, and geothermal energy are increasingly substituted for
conventional fossil-fuelled heating systems.
• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional
applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions
As can be seen in Figure 6.6, the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario saves
2,094 PJ/a by 2050, or 56%, compared to the Reference scenario. The
Advanced scenario introduces renewable heating systems about five years
ahead of the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Solar collectors and geothermal
heating systems achieve economies of scale through ambitious support
programmes five to ten years earlier. This results in a renewable energy
share of 40% by 2030 and 92% by 2050.
table 6.2: employment and investment in canada to 2030, under three scenarios
Coal 7,590 8,845 6,973 4,857 3,524 2,049 4,386 2,916 1,797
Gas, oil and diesel 21,670 19,651 20,888 32,628 31,310 29,659 30,221 26,509 23,054
Nuclear 6,519 8,041 8,929 2,123 502 0 2,123 502 0
Renewables 38,677 41,797 48,053 52,161 54,671 64,487 67,411 61,226 72,113
Total Jobs 74,456 78,333 84,843 91,768 90,007 96,195 104,142 91,153 96,964
70
image LOGS FROM CLEARCUTS IN
figure 6.6: heating and cooling supply in canada, to figure 6.7: energy for transportation in canada, to 2050,
2050, under three scenarios under three scenarios
4,000 3,000
2,750
3,500
2,500
3,000 2,250
2,500 2,000
1,750
2,000 1,500
key results |
1,500 1,250
1,000
1,000 750
500 500
250
PJ/a 0 PJ/a 0
TRANSPORT
REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
•• •••
‘EFFICIENCY’ ‘EFFICIENCY’
HYDROGEN HYDROGEN
•• GEOTHERMAL
SOLAR
••
ELECTRICITY
BIOFUELS
•• BIOMASS
FOSSIL FUELS
•
NATURAL GAS
OIL PRODUCTS
6.6 transport
A key target in Canada is to introduce incentives for smaller and more
efficient cars. It is also vital to achieve a shift to efficient transportation
modes such as rail, light rail, and buses—especially in the large,
expanding metropolitan areas. Together with rising prices for fossil fuels,
these changes will reduce energy demand in the transportation sector by
48% under the Energy [R]evolution scenarios.
Highly efficient propulsion technology for hybrid, plug-in hybrid and
battery-electric power trains will bring large efficiency gains. By
2030, electricity will provide 17% of the transport sector’s total
energy demand in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario, while in the
Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario the share will reach 24% in
2030 and 60% in 2050.
71
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
6.7 canada’s CO2 emissions figure 6.8: development of CO2 emissions in canada to
2050, by sector, under the energy [r]evolution scenarios
While Canada’s energy-related emissions of CO2 will increase by 10%
between 2007 and 2050 under the Reference scenario, under the
Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 547 million Million
tonnes in 2007 to 71 million tonnes in 2050, and to 29 million tonnes Mil t/a people
under the Advanced scenario. Annual per capita emissions will drop 700 50
from 16.6 tonnes to 1.6 tonnes in 2050 in the basic scenario, and to 600
0.7 tonnes in the Advanced scenario. Despite the phase-out of nuclear 40
6 500
energy and an increase in energy demand, CO2 emissions will decrease
key results |
30
in the electricity sector. In the long run, efficiency gains and the 400
increased use of renewable electricity will even reduce the demand for 300 20
oil and resulting CO2 emissions from the transportation sector.
200
The transportation sector, accounting for 30% of total CO2 in the 10
CO 2 EMISSIONS & PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
100
basic Energy [R]Evolution scenario, will be the largest source of
emissions in 2050. By 2050, in the Advanced scenario, Canada’s 0 0
energy-related CO2 emissions are 94% below 1990 levels. E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
10 to 15 years faster than the Energy [R]evolution scenario. This is made combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable energy share of
possible mainly by the replacement of new coal power plants with 37% in 2030 and 74% in 2050. Nuclear power is phased out in both
renewables after a 20-year lifetime rather than 40, and a faster Energy [R]evolution scenarios soon after 2040.
introduction of electric vehicles in the transportation sector to replace oil
figure 6.9: development of primary energy consumption in canada to 2050, under three scenarios
16,000
14,000
12,000
•••
‘EFFICIENCY’
10,000
OCEAN ENERGY
GEOTHERMAL
8,000
6,000
•• SOLAR
BIOMASS
4,000
•• WIND
HYDRO
2,000
•• NATURAL GAS
OIL
PJ/a 0
•• COAL
NUCLEAR
REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
72
image WIND TURBINES, ALBERTA,
© ALEX NIEDRA/DREAMSTIME
CANADA.
© PGIAM/ISTOCK
6.9 future investment plants. In regions with a good wind regime, for example, wind farms
are already competitive with coal or gas power plants.
6.9.1 investment in new power plants
It would require an investment of $343 billion for the Energy
The overall investment in new power plants up to 2050 will be between
[R]evolution scenario to become reality—about 7.5% higher than for
$317- and 399 billion. Investment in new generating capacity will be driven
the Reference scenario ($317 billion). The Advanced Energy
by the ageing of the existing fleet of power plants. Utilities must make
[R]evolution scenario would need $399 billion—about 25% more
technology choices within the next five to ten years, and these choices will
than for the Energy [R]evolution scenario.
be based on provincial and federal energy policies, including renewable
energy and CO2 reduction targets. Almost 30% of investment under the Reference scenario will go into fossil
fuels and nuclear power plants, about $88 billion. Under the Energy
key results |
Carbon-pricing schemes (either a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade
[R]evolution scenarios, however, Canada shifts more than 80% of
system) could have a major impact on whether investment goes into
investment into renewables and cogeneration, while the Advanced scenario
fossil-fuelled power plants or into renewable energy and cogeneration.
makes the shift about five to ten years earlier. By then, the fossil fuel share
Carbon pricing will also play a major role in determining whether
of power sector investment would be focused mainly on combined heat and
renewable energy becomes competitive with conventional power
FUTURE INVESTMENT
power and efficient gas-fired power plants.
71% RENEWABLES
10% CHP
total 317 billion $ total 343 billion $
14% FOSSIL
1% CHP
76% RENEWABLES
120
80
$billion/anum
60
79% RENEWABLES 40
20
-20
-40
73
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
6.9.2 fossil fuel power generation investment Small run-of-the-river hydro power plants, the modernization of existing
hydro power plants, or installing turbines in existing dams will require a
Under the Reference scenario, investment in renewable electricity
relatively large part of the renewable energy investment. Hydro power
generation will be $227 billion. This compares to $351 billion under the
plants are important because of their crucial ability to balance fluctuating
Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario. How investment is divided between
wind power. Development of the wind industry will take place mainly in
the different renewable power generation technologies depends on their
coastal areas, but also in areas farther inland in Ontario, Quebec and
level of technical development and regionally available resources.
Alberta. Bioenergy power plants will be distributed across Canada’s
Technologies such as wind power, which in many regions is already cost-
farmland as there is potential almost everywhere for biomass and/or biogas
6 competitive with existing power plants, will take a larger investment volume
(cogeneration) power plants.
and a bigger market share.
future investment and employment |
ocean energy
FUTURE INVESTMENT
geothermal
pv power plant
wind
hydro
biomass
74
image WIND TURBINE ON FARMLAND, CANADA.
© PGIAM/ISTOCK
6.9.3 fuel cost savings with renewable energy [R]evolution scenario and $82 billion in the Advanced scenario, for
2007–2050. This is more than enough to cover the entire investment
The total fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario are
in renewable and cogeneration capacity required for either of the
$49 billion, or $1.1 billion per year (see Table 6.3). The Advanced
Energy [R]evolution scenarios. The Advanced scenario would generate
Energy [R]evolution scenario has even higher fuel cost savings of
the highest rate-of-return on investment, especially between 2030 and
$228 billion, or $5.3 billion per year. This is because many forms of
2050, and the fuel cost savings would be 2.7 times higher than the
renewable energy have no fuel costs. So in both cases the additional
additional investment.
investment for renewable power plants is financed entirely through
fuel cost savings, which add up to $27 billion in the Energy 6
FUTURE INVESTMENT
CUMULATED FUEL COST SAVINGS
75
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
7
8
E
M
I
ST
M A
RE
R. KA SPRZAK/ D
AROUND 80
S. ©
%O
EL
FG
FU
LO
IL
BA
SS
EN
L
ER FO
GY E
IT
DEM F IN
A ND I S M E T B Y
policy agenda.”
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN
76
image FIRE BOAT RESPONSE CREWS BATTLE THE
BLAZING REMNANTS OF THE OFFSHORE OIL RIG
COAST GUARD
126 PERSON CREW.
The issue of security of supply is now at the top of the energy policy Whilst private companies are now becoming more realistic about the
agenda. Concern is focused both on price security and the security of extent of their resources, the OPEC countries hold by far the majority
physical supply. At present, around 80% of global energy demand is of the reported reserves, and their information is as unsatisfactory as
met by fossil fuels. The unrelenting increase in energy demand is ever. Their conclusions should therefore be treated with considerable
matched by the finite nature of these resources. At the same time, the caution. To fairly estimate the world’s oil resources, a regional
global distribution of oil and gas resources does not match the assessment of the mean backdated (i.e., “technical”) discoveries
distribution of demand. Some countries have to rely almost entirely on would need to be performed.
fossil fuel imports. The maps on the following pages provide an
overview of the availability of different fuels and their regional
7.1.2 non-conventional oil reserves
distribution. Information in this chapter is based partly on the report
Plugging the Gap,107 as well as information from the International A large share of the world’s remaining oil resources is classified as
Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2008 and 2009 reports. “non-conventional.” Potential fuels from sources such as oil sands,
extra-heavy oil, and oil shale are generally more costly to exploit and
7
their recovery involves enormous environmental damage. The reserves
77
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
as shale gas. Conventional natural gas deposits have a well-defined scale for two centuries, so both the product and the available resources are
geographical area, the reservoirs are porous and permeable, the gas is well known; no substantial new deposits are expected to be discovered.
produced easily through a wellbore and does not generally require artificial Extrapolating the demand forecast forward, the world will consume 20%
stimulation. Non-conventional deposits, on the other hand, are often lower of its current reserves by 2030 and 40% by 2050. Hence, if current trends
in resource concentration, more dispersed over large areas and require are maintained, coal reserves would still last several hundred years.
well stimulation or some other extraction or conversion technology. They
are also usually more expensive to develop per unit of energy.109
7.4 nuclear
Research and investment in non-conventional gas resources has increased
Uranium, the fuel used in nuclear power plants, is a finite resource whose
significantly in recent years due to the rising price of conventional natural
economically available reserves are limited. Its distribution is almost as
gas. In some areas the technologies for economic production have already
concentrated as oil’s and does not match global consumption. Five
been developed, in others they are still at the research stage. Extracting
countries—Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Niger—control
shale gas, however, usually goes hand in hand with environmentally
three quarters of the world’s supply. As a significant user of uranium,
COAL & NUCLEAR
table 7.1: overview of known worldwide fossil fuel reserves and resources
ENERGY CARRIER WEO 2009, WEO BROWN, 2002 IEA, 2002c IPCC, 2001a NAKICENOVIC UNDP ET AL., BGR, 1998
2008, WEO 2007 EJ EJ EJ ET AL., 2000 2000 EJ
EJ EJ EJ
Gas reserves 182 tcm 5,600 6,200 c 5,400 c 5,900 c 5,500 c 5,300
nc 8,000 nc 8,000 nc 9,400 nc 100
resources 405 tcm 9,400 11,100 c 11,700 c 11,700 c 11,100 c 7,800
nc 10,800 nc 10,800 nc 23,800 ncd 111,900
additional occurrences 921 tcm 796,000 799,700 930,000
Oil reserves 2,369 bb 5,800 5,700 c 5,900 c 6,300 c 6,000 c 6,700
nc 6,600 nc 8,100 nc 5,100 nc 5,900
resources 10,200 13,400 c 7,500 c 6,100 c 6,100 c 3,300
nc 15,500 nc 13,900 nc 15,200 nc 25,200
additional occurrences 61,000 79,500 45,000
Coal reserves 847 bill tonnes 23,600 22,500 42,000 25,400 20,700 16,300
resources 26,000 165,000 100,000 117,000 179,000 179,000
additional occurrences 921 tcm 121,000 125,600
Total resource (reserves + resources) 180,600 223,900 212,200 213,200 281,900 361,500
Total occurrence 1,204,200 1,218,000 1,256,000
note EJ = EXAJOULES; C = CONVENTIONAL RESERVES (PETROLEUM OF A CERTAIN DENSITY, FREE
NATURAL GAS, PETROLEUM GAS); NC = NON-CONVENTIONAL RESERVES (HEAVY FUEL OIL, VERY
HEAVY OILS, TAR SANDS AND OIL SHALE, GAS IN COAL SEAMS, AQUIFER GAS, NATURAL GAS IN TIGHT
FORMATIONS, GAS HYDRATES) TCM = TRILLION CUBIC METRES.
source GERMAN ADVISORY COUNCIL ON GLOBAL CHANGE (WBGU), WORLD IN 109 INTERSTATE NATURAL GAS ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA (INGAA), “AVAILABILITY,
TRANSITION: TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS, EARTHSCAN. 2004, UPDATED ECONOMICS AND PRODUCTION POTENTIAL OF NORTH AMERICAN UNCONVENTIONAL
WITH IEA WEO 2008 AND WEO 2009 DATA. NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES”, NOVEMBER 2008
78
image PLATFORM/OIL RIG DUNLIN IN THE NORTH SEA SHOWING OIL POLLUTION.
© N. BEHRING-CHISHOLM/GP
image ON A LINFEN STREET, TWO MEN LOAD UP A CART WITH COAL THAT WILL BE
USED FOR COOKING. LINFEN, A CITY OF ABOUT 4.3 MILLION, IS ONE OF THE MOST
POLLUTED CITIES IN THE WORLD. CHINA’S INCREASINGLY POLLUTED ENVIRONMENT
© GP/LANGER
IS LARGELY A RESULT OF THE COUNTRY’S RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND CONSEQUENTLY
A LARGE INCREASE IN PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION, WHICH IS ALMOST ENTIRELY
PRODUCED BY BURNING COAL.
table 7.2: assumptions on fossil fuel use in the reference and energy [r]evolution scenarios
RENEWABLE ENERGY
note PJ/A = PETAJOULES PER ANNUM.
Secondary sources, such as old deposits, currently make up nearly Before looking at the part renewable energies can play in the range of
half of worldwide uranium reserves. These will soon be used up, scenarios in this report, however, it is worth understanding the upper
however. Mining capacities will have to be nearly doubled in the next limits of their potential. To start with, the overall technical potential of
few years to meet current needs. renewable energy—the amount that can be produced, taking into account
the primary resources, the socio-geographical constraints and the
A joint report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International
technical losses in the conversion process—is huge and several times
Atomic Energy Agency110 estimates that all existing nuclear power plants
higher than current total energy demand. Assessments of the global
will have used up their nuclear fuel, employing current technology, within
technical potential vary significantly from 2,477 exajoules per annum
less than 70 years. Given the range of scenarios for the worldwide
(EJ/a)111 up to 15,857 EJ/a.112 Based on the global primary energy
development of nuclear power, it is likely that uranium supplies will be
demand in 2007113 of 503 EJ/a, the total technical potential of renewable
exhausted sometime between 2026 and 2070. This forecast includes the
energy sources at the upper limit would exceed demand by a factor of 32.
use of mixed oxide fuel (MOX), a mixture of uranium and plutonium.
However, barriers to the growth of renewable energy technologies may
come from economical, political and infrastructural constraints. That is
7.5 renewable energy why the technical potential will never be realised in total.
Nature offers a variety of freely available options for producing Assessing long-term technical potentials is subject to various uncertainties.
energy. Their exploitation is mainly a question of how to convert The distribution of the theoretical resources, such as the global wind speed
sunlight, wind, biomass or water into electricity, heat or power as or the productivity of energy crops, is not always well analyzed. The
efficiently, sustainably and cost-effectively as possible. geographical availability is subject to variations such as land-use change,
On average, the energy in the sunshine that reaches the earth is about one future planning decisions on where certain technologies are allowed, and
kilowatt per square metre, worldwide. According to the Research Association accessibility of resources, for example underground geothermal energy.
for Solar Power, power is gushing from renewable energy sources at a rate of Technical performance may take longer to achieve than expected. There
2,850 times more energy than is needed in the world. In one day, the sunlight are also uncertainties in terms of the consistency of the data provided in
which reaches the earth produces enough energy to satisfy the world’s studies, and underlying assumptions are often not explained in detail.
current power requirements for eight years. Even though only a percentage 110 OECD NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY, AND IAEA, URANIUM 2003: RESOURCES,
PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, 2003.
of that potential is technically accessible, this is still enough to provide just 111 NITSCH 2004.
under six times more power than the world currently requires. 112 UBA 2009.
113 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, 2009.
79
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
map 7.1: oil reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO
7
energy resources & security of supply |
OIL
2007 69.3 5.6% 69.3 5.6% 2007 111.2 9.0% 111.2 9.0%
2007 7,429H 45,466H 7,429H 45,466H 2007 1,691 10,349 1,691 10,349
OIL
2050 6,594H 40,352H 1,225 7,494 2050 2,597 15,895 292 1,788
L L L L
LEGEND 140
$ PER BARREL
COST
130
crude oil prices 1988 -
120 2007 and future predictions E[R]
>60 50-60 40-50 REF REFERENCE SCENARIO comparing the REF and REF
110 advanced E[R] scenarios
1 barrel = 159 litres
30-40 20-30 10-20 E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO 100 SOURCES REF: INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY/E[R]: DEVELOPMENTS
APPLIED IN THE GES-PROJECT
90
5-10 0-5 % RESOURCES
GLOBALLY
0 1000 KM 80
70
60
50
RESERVES TOTAL THOUSAND MILLION BARRELS [TMB] | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2007] 40
20
CONSUMPTION PER PERSON LITERS [L]
10
0
H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
80
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES
2007 16.9 1.4%M 16.9 1.4%M 2007 755.3H 61.0%H 755.3H 61.0%H 2007 15.5 1.3% 15.5 1.3% 2007 87.6 10.1%L 87.6 10.1%L
MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ
2007 4,337 26,541 4,337 4,418 2007 1,913 11,709 1,913 11,709 2007 2,445 14,966 2,445 14,966 2007 1,605 9,826 1,605 9,826
2050 3,590M 21,970M 722M 9,361M 2050 3,574 21,871 569 3,482 2050 7,946 48,629 1,881H 11,513H 2050 1,953L 11,955L 441L 2,701L
L L L L L L L L
2007 1,285 1,285 2007 1,617 1,617 2007 294 294 2007 748M 748M
2050 1,013M 204 2050 1,638 261 2050 891 211M 2050 1,057 239
GLOBAL
REF E[R]
TMB % TMB % 7
2007 1,199 100% 1,199 100%
OIL
AFRICA INDIA DEVELOPING ASIA OECD PACIFIC
2007 117.5M 9.5% 117.5M 9.5% 2007 5.5 0.5% 5.5 0.5% 2007 14.8 1.2% 14.8 1.2% 2007 5.1L 0.4% 5.1L 0.4%
MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ
2007 924 5,654 924 5,654 2007 1,011L 6,187L 1,011 6,187 2007 1,656 10,136 1,656 10,136 2007 2,465M 15,089M 2,465 15,086
2050 1,667 10,202 689 4,214 2050 3,669 22,455 1,169 7,152 2050 3,448 21,099 1,014 6,204 2050 1,724 10,552 458 2,805
L L L L L L L L
2007 159 159 2007 142L 142L 2007 270 270 2007 1,958 1,958
1,358
BILLION
BARRELS
25 50,000
BILLION TONNES
MILLION BARRELS
USED SINCE
1,199 2007
15 30,000
811
10 20,000 E[R] BILLION
BARRELS
USED SINCE
E[R] 2007
5 10,000
0 0
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 1972 - 2007 PAST YEARS 2007 - 2050 FUTURE
81
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
map 7.2: gas reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO
7
energy resources & security of supply |
GAS
2007 8.0 4.4% 8.0 4.4% 2007 7.7 4.3% 7.7 4.3%
2007 722H 27,435H 722H 27,435H 2007 117 4,465 117 4,465
GAS
2050 767H 29,144H 71H 2,688H 2050 246M 9,358M 34 1,303
m3 m3 m3 m3
LEGEND 24
$ PER MILLION Btu
23 COST
22
gas prices of LNG/
21
natural gas 1984 - 2007 E[R]
>50 40-50 30-40 REF REFERENCE SCENARIO 20 and future predictions
19 comparing the REF
18 and adv. E[R] scenarios.
20-30 10-20 5-10 E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO 17
SOURCE JAPAN CIF/EUROPEAN
UNION CIF/IEA 2007 - US IMPORTS/
IEA 2007 - EUROPEAN IMPORTS
16
0-5 % RESOURCES 15 REF
GLOBALLY 14
0 1000 KM
13
12
11
10
9
8
RESERVES TOTAL TRILLION CUBIC METRES [tn m3] | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2007] 7
6
CONSUMPTION PER REGION BILLION CUBIC METRES [bn m3] | PETA JOULE [PJ] 5 LNG
4
3
CONSUMPTION PER PERSON CUBIC METRES [m ] 3
2 NATURAL GAS
1
0
H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
82
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES
2007 9.8 5.4% 9.8 5.4% 2007 73.2H 40.4%H 73.2H 40.4%H 2007 1.9 1.0% 1.9 1.0% 2007 53.3 29.4% 53.3 29.4%
bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ
2007 504 19,170 504 19,170 2007 238M 9,056M 239 9,056 2007 71 2,716 71 2,716 2007 638 24,225 638 24,225
2050 644 24,469 69 2,613 2050 685 26,034 74 2,805 2050 341 12,953 212 8,061 2050 776 29,478 138 5,248
m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3
2007 934 934 2007 1,178 1,178 2007 54 54 2007 1,874H 1,874H
2050 1,120M 120 2050 1,939 209M 2050 239 149 2050 2,496H 444H
GLOBAL
REF E[R]
tn m3 % tn m3 % 7
2007 181 100% 181 100%
GAS
AFRICA INDIA DEVELOPING ASIA OECD PACIFIC
2007 14.6M 8.0%M 14.6M 8.0%M 2007 1.1L 0.6%L 1.1L 0.6%L 2007 8.6 4.8% 8.6 4.8% 2007 2.9 1.6% 2.9 1.6%
bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ
2007 91 3,472 91 3,472 2007 37L 1,397L 37L 1,397L 2007 184 6,998 184 6,998 2007 156 5,912 156 5,912
2050 167 6,338 65 2,456 2050 164L 6,227L 107M 4,075M 2050 422 16,020 115 4,368 2050 170 6,467 18L 667L
m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3
2007 95 95 2007 32L 32L 2007 182 182 2007 776M 776M
158
TRILLION
CUBIC
25 5,000
BILLION TONNES
BILLION m3
METRES
181 USED SINCE
2007
15 3,000
E[R]
112
10 REF 2,000 TRILLION
CUBIC
METRES
USED SINCE
5 E[R] 1,000 2007
0 0
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 1972 - 2007 PAST YEARS 2007 - 2050 FUTURE
83
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
map 7.3: coal reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO
7
energy resources & security of supply |
COAL
2007 250,510 29.6% 250,510 29.6% 2007 16,276 1.9% 16,276 1.9%
COAL
2050 1,351 27,255 6 134 2050 165 3,122 11 247
t t t t
COST
150
coal prices 1988 - 2007
125 and future predictions for
>60 50-60 40-50 REF REFERENCE SCENARIO the adv. E[R] scenario.
100
$ per tonne REF
30-40 20-30 10-20 E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO SOURCE MCCLOSKEY COAL
INFORMATION SERVICE - EUROPE.
90 PLATTS - US.
60
JAPAN STEAM COAL
50
RESERVES TOTAL MILLION TONNES [mn t] | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2007] 40
NW EUROPE
30
CONSUMPTION PER REGION MILLION TONNES [mn t] | PETA JOULE [PJ]
US CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
20
CONSUMPTION PER PERSON TONNES [t]
10
0
H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
84
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES
2007 50,063 5.9% 50,063 5.9% 2007 1,386 0.2%L 1,386 0.2%L 2007 114,500 13.5% 114,500 13.5% 2007 222,183 26% 222,183 26%
mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ
2007 897 14,371 897 14,371 2007 19L 437L 19 437 2007 2,403H 55,333H 2,403 55,333 2007 532 9,003 532 9,003
2050 710 11,899 10 231 2050 91L 2,092L 1L 13 2050 4,148H 95,527H 218H 5,027H 2050 904 13,665 14 327
t t t t t t t t
2007 1.2 1.2 2007 0.0L 0.0 2007 1.8 1.8 2007 1.1 1.1
2050 0.9 0.0 2050 0.2L 0.0 2050 2.9H 0.2H 2050 1.9M 0.0
GLOBAL
REF E[R]
mn t % mn t % 7
2007 846,496 100% 846,496 100%
COAL
AFRICA INDIA DEVELOPING ASIA OECD PACIFIC
2007 49,605 5.9% 49,605 5.9% 2007 56,498 6.7%M 56,498 6.7%M 2007 7,814 0.9% 7,814 0.9% 2007 77,661 9% 77,661 9%
mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ
2007 188 4,330 188 4,330 2007 459 10,126 459 10,126 2007 330 5,824 330 5,824 2007 565 10,652 565 10,652
2050 303 6,977 19 427 2050 1,692 36,709 37 851 2050 868M 17,902 9 217 2050 518 10,097 1L 27
t t t t t t t t
2007 0.2 0.2 2007 0.4 0.4 2007 0.3 0.3 2007 2.3 2.3
13,000
CO2 EMISSIONS RESERVES AND CONSUMPTION REF global consumption
FROM COAL 12,000
coal reserves versus global demand, production ADV E[R] global consumption
8,000
7,000
25 REF 6,000
BILLION TONNES
5,000
20
4,000 E[R]
15
159
3,000
BILLION
10 TONNES
2,000 USED SINCE
2007
5 E[R]
1,000
0 0
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 1970 - 2007 PAST YEARS 2007 - 2050 FUTURE
85
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
map 7.4: nuclear reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO
7
energy resources & security of supply |
PJ
2050 60
PJ
BY 2030
PJ
NUCLEAR
2050 13,735H 0 2050 655 0
kWh kWh kWh kWh
LEGEND 110
$US/LBS
100
70
0 1000 KM
60
50
RESERVES TOTAL TONNES | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2007]
40
86
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES
2007 56,445 1.8% 56,445 1.8% 2007 370L 0%L 370L 0%L 2007 35,060 1.1% 35,060 1.1% 2007 1,043,687H 32.9%H 1,043,687H 32.9%H
2007 925 2007 0L NO NUCLEAR 2007 62 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 293M NUCLEAR POWER
PHASED OUT ENERGY PHASED OUT PHASED OUT
2050 635M BY 2030 2050 14L DEVELOPMENT 2050 817 BY 2045 2050 463 BY 2045
PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ
2007 10,096 10,096 2007 0L 0L 2007 678 678 2007 3,197M 3,197M
2050 6,927M 0 2050 153L 0 2050 8,913 0 2050 5,051 0
kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh
GLOBAL
REF E[R]
t % t % 7
2007 3,169,238 100% 3,169,238 100%
PJ PJ
NUCLEAR
REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]
t % t % t % t % t % t % t % t %
2007 470,312M 14.8%M 470,312M 14.8%M 2007 40,980 1.3% 40,980 1.3% 2007 5,630 0.2% 5,630 0.2% 2007 741,600 23.4% 741,600 23.4%
2007 11 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 17 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 44 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 407 NUCLEAR POWER
PHASED OUT PHASED OUT PHASED OUT PHASED OUT
2050 45 BY 2025 2050 172 BY 2045 2050 80 BY 2045 2050 868 BY 2045
PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ
2007 123 123 2007 183 183 2007 476 476 2007 4,437 4,437
2050 491 0 2050 1,876 0 2050 873 0 2050 9,469 0
kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh
35
NO. OF REACTORS
4,500
TWh
E[R] REF
30 4,000
GW
3,500
25 TWh
3,000 600
20
2,500 TWh 500
GW
15 2,000 400
1,500 300
10
1,000 200
5 GW
500 100
0 0 0
2007
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
YEARS 1970 - 2008 PAST YEARS 2008 - 2050 FUTURE AGE OF REACTORS IN YEARS YEARS 2007 - 2050
87
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
The meta-study by the DLR (German aerospace agency), Wuppertal definition of types of energy resource potential115
Institute and Ecofys, commissioned by the German Federal Environment
theoretical potential The theoretical potential identifies the physical
Agency, provides a comprehensive overview of the technical renewable
upper limit of the energy available from a certain source. For solar
energy potential by technologies and world region.114 This survey analyzed
energy, for example, this would be the total solar radiation falling on
ten major studies of global and regional potentials by organizations such
a particular surface.
as the United Nations Development Programme and a range of academic
institutions. Each of the major renewable energy sources was assessed, conversion potential This is derived from the annual efficiency of the
with special attention paid to the effect of environmental constraints on respective conversion technology. It is therefore not a strictly defined
their overall potential. The study provides data for the years 2020, 2030 value, since the efficiency of a particular technology depends on
and 2050 (see Table 7.3). technological progress.
The complexity of calculating renewable energy potentials is particularly technical potential This takes into account additional restrictions
7 great because these technologies are comparatively young and their regarding the area that is realistically available for energy generation.
exploitation involves changes to the way in which energy is both Technological, structural and ecological restrictions, as well as
energy sources and security of supply |
generated and distributed. Whilst a calculation of the theoretical and legislative requirements, are accounted for.
geographical potentials has only a few dynamic parameters, the
economic potential The proportion of the technical potential that
technical potential is dependent on a number of uncertainties.
can be utilised economically. For biomass, for example, those
A technology breakthrough, for example, could have a dramatic impact, quantities are included that can be exploited economically in
changing the technical potential assessment within a very short time competition with other products and land uses.
frame. Considering the huge dynamic of technology development, many
sustainable potential This limits the potential of an energy source
existing studies are based on out-of-date information. The estimates in
based on evaluation of ecological and socio-economic factors.
the DLR study could therefore be updated using more recent data; for
example, significantly increased average wind turbine capacity and
output, which would increase the technical potentials still further.
Given the large unexploited resources which exist, even without figure 7.1: energy resources of the world
having reached the full development limits of the various technologies,
RENEWABLE ENERGY
88
image SOLON AG PHOTOVOLTAICS FACILITY IN ARNSTEIN OPERATING 1,500
HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL SOLAR “MOVERS”. LARGEST TRACKING SOLAR FACILITY
© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
IN THE WORLD. EACH “MOVER” CAN BE BOUGHT AS A PRIVATE INVESTMENT FROM
THE S.A.G. SOLARSTROM AG, BAYERN, GERMANY.
image WIND ENERGY PARK NEAR DAHME. WIND TURBINE IN THE SNOW OPERATED BY VESTAS.
table 7.3: technical potential by renewable energy technology for 2020, 2030 and 2050
TECHNICAL POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY TECHNICAL POTENTIAL TECHNICAL
EJ/YEAR ELECTRIC POWER HEAT EJ/A POTENTIAL PRIMARY
ENERGY EJ/A
SOLAR SOLAR HYDRO WIND WIND OCEAN GEO- GEO- SOLAR BIOMASS BIOMASS TOTAL
CSP PV POWER ON- OFF- ENERGY THERMAL THERMAL WATER RESIDUES ENERGY
SHORE SHORE ELECTRIC DIRECT USES HEATING CROPS
World 2020 1,125.9 5,156.1 47.5 368.6 25.6 66.2 4.5 498.5 113.1 58.6 43.4 7,505
World 2030 1,351.0 6,187.3 48.5 361.7 35.9 165.6 13.4 1,486.6 117.3 68.3 61.1 9,897
World 2050 1,688.8 8,043.5 50.0 378.9 57.4 331.2 44.8 4,955.2 123.4 87.6 96.5 15,857
World energy demand 2007: 502.9 EJ/aa
Technical potential in 2050 versus 3.4 16.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.1 9.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 32 7
world primary energy demand 2007.
7.5.1 the global potential for sustainable biomass 3.Biomass from natural ecosystems should be sourced in an
environmentally responsible and socially just manner, such as through
Bioenergy’s role in the energy revolution must be limited to biomass that certification by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). Additional
is sustainably produced and which results in significant reductions in criteria for the use of wood and wood residues from forests must be
greenhouse gas emissions. applied. Grass from grasslands must also be harvested sustainably.
Various studies have looked historically at the potential for bioenergy and 4. Social conflicts should be avoided and food security, livelihoods and land
come up with widely differing results. As part of background research for rights should not be undermined. Production and use of bioenergy should
the Energy [R]evolution scenario, Greenpeace commissioned the German not widen social inequalities, especially between developing and developed
Biomass Research Centre (the former Institute for Energy and countries. Local needs should take priority over global trade and
Environment) to investigate the worldwide potential for energy crops, up to production. In addition, international trade in biomass or biofuels must not
2050. In addition, information has been compiled from scientific studies of result in negative social impacts, nor undermine food security. Land use
RENEWABLE ENERGY
the global potential and from data derived from state-of-the-art remote conflicts should be avoided and indigenous peoples and local communities
have the right to free and prior informed consent for the use of their land.
sensing techniques, such as satellite images. A summary of these findings
can be found in the 2010 global Energy [R]evolution report.116 5.Bioenergy projects must involve no deliberate release of genetically
engineered (GE) organisms to the environment. Any bioenergy crops,
The Energy [R]evolution scenarios adopt a conservative approach, and including trees, must not be genetically engineered.
assume roughly 88 EJ of global primary energy coming from biomass in
2050. The bulk of this (75 EJ per year) is crop harvest residues (e.g., straw, 6.Bioenergy crops and plantations should reflect the promotion of
biodiversity, which means that the projects must not concentrate on
stalk and leaves) and crop process residues (e.g., oilcakes, hulls and shells),
monoculture plant and tree plantations.
while assuming that most (75%) of the crop harvest residues and total crop
biomass will remain in the field for carbon and nutrient recycling purposes. 7.Sustainable agricultural practices are applied that do not pollute the
About 8–9 EJ per year will come from wood-processing residues (e.g., from biosphere through accumulation of agrochemicals like synthetic
sawmills) and discarded wood products. This equals 0.7–0.8 billion cubic fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides in the soil, water or air. The use of
metres (m3) of wood residues per year, or less than half of today´s annual these agrochemicals is minimized, which means that they are only used
when there is no biological or organic alternative and only in the most
consumption of fuelwood. The remaining 4–5 EJ per year will come from
efficient and most non-polluting way.
dedicated bioenergy crops, which would require less than 1% of today´s
global cropland and probably less than today’s already existing bioenergy 8.Plantations should promote conservation of water and soil fertility.
croplands. Pressure to expand croplands can also be eased through a shift The production of bioenergy crops should maintain soil fertility,
to a less meat-intensive diet, particularly in the developed world. avoid soil erosion, promote conservation of water resources, and
have minimal impacts on water availability and quality, and nutrient
All biomass must meet the following sustainability criteria: and mineral balances.
1.Any bioenergy project should have a positive GHG balance of at least 9.The expansion and development of new bioenergy crops should not
60%. The calculation of the GHG balance must be made over the whole introduce any invasive species. Where there is doubt, the
production chain. This automatically favours the most efficient biomass precautionary principle should be applied.
application, such as electricity and heat production as opposed to
transport. The GHG balance must also include the greenhouse gas If there are insufficient quantities of available biomass that meet these
emissions from indirect conversion of natural ecosystems. criteria, then the remaining biomass component in the Energy
[R]evolution scenarios would be replaced with other forms of renewable
2.Crops and plantations for bioenergy must not cause direct or energy or enhanced conservation measures.
indirect destruction or conversion of natural forests or other
natural or valuable ecosystems. Natural forests are not only 116 EREC, AND GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE
WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK, 2010.
important carbon stores, but have high biodiversity value as well.
89
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
map 7.5: solar reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO
63,658 KM2
7
energy resources & security of supply |
13,675 KM2
SOLAR
SOLAR
2050 1.04M 1,343 25M 17,683 2050 0.52 214 14L 3,799L
kWh kWh kWh kWh
2007 40 2007 4
2050 646 8,508 2050 99 1,758
LEGEND pv
COST concentrating solar power plants (CSP)
16,000 PRODUCTION 36.11%
comparison between 15,000 comparison between
renewable and non coal the REF and adv. E[R]
renewable energies 14,000 scenarios 2007 - 2050
2600- 2400- 2200- REF REFERENCE SCENARIO 2007 - 2050 gas power plant [electricity]
2800 2600 2400 13,000
cents/kWh 12,000 TWh/a
2000- 1800- 1600- E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY 11,000
2200 2000 1800 [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO SOURCE EPIA SOURCE GPI/EREC
10,000
0.70 27.28%
TWh/a
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
90
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES
10,419 KM2
38,447 KM 2
77,859 KM2 GLOBAL
REF E[R]
NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION
% PJ % PJ 7
2007 0.10 402
52,907 KM 2
35,764 KM2
SOLAR AREA
NEEDED TO SUPPORT
NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION
ADV E[R] 2050 SCENARIO
32,392 KM2
390,122 KM2
17,257 KM2
SOLAR
AFRICA INDIA OTHER ASIA OECD PACIFIC
PJ
3,500
39%
30,000 150,000
3,000
ADV E[R]
25,000 125,000 15%
(CSP) 2,500
23%
P) 20,000 12.17% 100,000 15%
2,000 14% 23.3%
16%
14%
15,000 ADV E[R] solar collectors 75,000
1,500
REF solar collectors 14% 15%
13%
1,000 10,000 % total solar share 50,000 13%
4.48%
1.63% 2.2% 7.2%
REF 5,000 25,000
500 0.27% 1.25% 1.51%
0.6%
0.27% 0.94% 0.1% 1%
0.35% 0.54% 0.1% 0.2%
0.3% 0.6% 0.5%
0 0 0
91
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
map 8.6: wind reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO
159,459 KM2
7
energy resources & security of supply |
60,791 KM2
WIND
WIND
2050 1.71 2,210 11.11 7,805H 2050 0.65 266 10.54 2,878
kWh kWh kWh kWh
2007 84 2007 2
2050 1,064 3,755 2050 123 1,332
cents/kWh
8-9 7-8 6-7 E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO 8,000
SOURCE GWEC
7,000
5-6 4-5 3-4
TWh/a
0 1000 KM
0.12 6,000
1-2 0-1 AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN
0.11
METRES PER SECOND
SOURCE DLR 0.10 5,000
0.09
0.08 4,000
0.07
11.07%
0.06 3,000
0.05
PRODUCTION PER REGION % OF GLOBAL SHARE | PETA JOULE [PJ]
USD CENTS/kWh
0.04 2,000
4.87%
0.03
PRODUCTION PER PERSON KILOWATT HOUR [kWh] 0.02 1,000 3.70 %
0.88%
0.01 0.88%
2.78%
0 0
H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST
2007
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2007
2010
2020
2030
92
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES
REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]
% PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ
% PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ
2007 0.49H 379H 2007 0.00L 1L 2007 0.04 32 2007 0.00 1
2050 4.14H 3,420H 10.41 4,867 2050 0.26L 133L 4.78 1,314 2050 0.66 1,220M 6.85M 7,340 2050 0.56 360 9.83 3,413
kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh
2007 195H 2007 1 2007 7 2007 1
2050 1,652H 2,352M 2050 105 1,033 2050 238 1,430 2050 322M 3,050
64,644 KM2
96,571 KM 2
140,621 KM2
GLOBAL
REF E[R]
NEEDED WIND AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION
% PJ % PJ 7
2007 0.13 624
NEEDED WIND AREA TO
27,757 KM 2
2007 26
NEEDED WIND AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION 2050 275 1,182
17,029 KM2
WIND AREA
NEEDED TO SUPPORT
NEEDED WIND AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION ADV E[R] 2050 SCENARIO
58,118 KM2
750,859 KM2
56,656 KM2
WIND
AFRICA INDIA ASIA OECD PACIFIC
TWh GW PJ 60%
25.77% 3,000
200,000
SOURCE GWEC SOURCE GPI/GWEC SOURCE GPI/GWEC
175,000
PJ
2,500
GW
39%
150,000
20.16%
ADV E[R] wind 2,000
REF wind 125,000
% REF total wind share 23% 15%
1,500 100,000 15%
16% 14%
14%
75,000
1,000
14%
5.41% 13%
5.00% 50,000 13% 8.38%
6.37%
4.48% 500 4.22%
25,000
0.13% 0.81% 1.98%
1.00% 1.16%
0.45% 0.62% 0.82%
0.13%
0 0
2040
2050
2007
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2007
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
93
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
energy technologies
GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL TECHNOLOGIES
NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES
RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
9
8 “the technology
is here, all
political
we
“the technology
is
need
will.”
is here, all we need
CHRIS
SUPPORTER, AUSTRALIA
image BIOGAS FACILITY “SCHRADEN BIOGAS” IN GROEDEN NEAR DRESDEN, GERMANY.
© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
is political will.”
CHRIS JONES
SUPORTER AUSTRALIA
94
image THROUGH BURNING OF WOOD CHIPS THE POWER
PLANT GENERATES ELECTRICITY, ENERGY OR HEAT.
HERE WE SEE THE STOCK OF WOOD CHIPS WITH A
© GP/BAS BEENTJES
CAPACITY OF 1000 M3 ON WHICH THE PLANT CAN RUN,
UNMANNED, FOR ABOUT 4 DAYS. LELYSTAD,
THE NETHERLANDS.
This chapter describes the range of technologies available now and in the Other potential future technologies involve the increased use of coal
future to satisfy the world’s energy demand. The Energy [R]evolution gasification. Underground coal gasification, for example, involves converting
scenario is focused on the potential for energy savings and renewable deep underground unworked coal into a combustible gas which can be used
sources, primarily in the electricity- and heat-generating sectors. for industrial heating, power generation or the manufacture of hydrogen,
synthetic natural gas or other chemicals. The gas can be processed to
remove CO2 before it is passed on to end users. Demonstration projects are
8.1 fossil fuel technologies
underway in Australia, Europe, China and Japan.
The most commonly used fossil fuels for power generation around the
world are coal and gas. Oil is still used where other fuels are not
8.1.2 gas combustion technologies
readily available, for example islands or remote sites, or where there
is an indigenous resource. Together, coal and gas currently account for Natural gas can be used for electricity generation through the use of either
over half of global electricity supply. gas or steam turbines. For the equivalent amount of heat, gas produces
about 45% less carbon dioxide during its combustion than coal.
8.1.1 coal combustion technologies Gas turbine plants use the heat from gases to directly operate the
8
turbine. Natural gas–fuelled turbines can start rapidly, and are
In a conventional coal-fired power station, pulverized or powdered
energy technologies |
therefore often used to supply energy during periods of peak demand,
coal is blown into a combustion chamber where it is burned at high
although at higher cost than that of baseload plants.
temperature. The resulting heat is used to convert water flowing
through pipes lining the boiler into steam. This drives a steam turbine Particularly high efficiencies can be achieved through combining gas
and generates electricity. Over 90% of global coal-fired capacity uses turbines with a steam turbine in combined cycle mode. In a combined
this system. Coal power stations can vary in capacity from a few cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant, a gas turbine generator produces
hundred megawatts up to several thousand. electricity and the exhaust gases from the turbine are then used to make
steam to generate additional electricity. The efficiency of modern CCGT
A number of technologies have been introduced to improve the
Deploying the technology on coal power plants is likely to double carbon storage and climate change targets Can carbon storage
construction costs, increase fuel consumption by 10–40%, consume contribute to climate change reduction targets? In order to avoid
more water, generate more pollutants and ultimately require the dangerous climate change, global greenhouse gas emissions need to
public sector to ensure that the CO2 stays where it has been buried. In peak by between 2015 and 2020 and fall dramatically thereafter.
a similar way to the disposal of nuclear waste, CCS involves creating Power plants capable of capturing and storing CO2 are still being
a scheme whereby future generations monitor in perpetuity the developed, however, and won’t become a reality for at least another
climate pollution produced by their predecessors. decade, if ever. This means that even if CCS works, the technology
would not make any substantial contribution towards protecting the
climate before 2020.
8.1.4 carbon dioxide storage
Power plant CO2 storage will also not be of any great help in attaining
In order to benefit the climate, captured CO2 has to be stored somewhere
the goal of a reduction of at least 80% in greenhouse gas by 2050 in
permanently. Current thinking is that it can be pumped under the earth’s
OECD countries. Even if CCS were to be available in 2020, most of the
surface at a depth of over 3,000 feet into geological formations, such as
world’s new power plants will have just finished being modernized. All
saline aquifers. However, the volume of CO2 that would need to be
8 that could then be done would be for existing power plants to be
captured and stored is enormous—a single coal-fired power plant can
retrofitted and CO2 captured from the waste gas flow. Retrofitting power
energy technologies |
both in terms of the number of storage sites and whether they will be
energy together with energy efficiency and energy conservation, and
located close enough to power plants.
not carbon capture and storage, that has to increase worldwide so
Even if it is feasible to bury hundreds of thousands of megatons of that the primary cause of climate change—the burning of fossil fuels
CO2, there is no way to guarantee that storage locations will be like coal, oil and gas—is stopped.
appropriately designed and managed over the timescales required. The
world has limited experience of storing CO2 underground; the longest-
Greenpeace opposes any CCS efforts which lead to:
running storage project, at Sleipner in the Norweigian North Sea,
began operation only in 1996. This is particularly concerning because • public financial support of CCS, at the expense of funding renewable
as long as CO2 is present in geological sites, there is a risk of leakage. energy development and investment in energy efficiency;
Although leakages are unlikely to occur in well-characterized, - • the stagnation of renewable energy, energy efficiency and energy
managed and -monitored sites, permanent storage stability cannot be conservation improvements;
guaranteed, since tectonic activity and natural leakage over long
• inclusion of CCS in the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development
timeframes are impossible to predict.
Mechanism (CDM), as it would divert funds away from the stated
Sudden leakage of CO2 can be fatal. Carbon dioxide is not itself intention of the mechanism, and cannot be considered clean
poisonous, and is contained in the air we breathe (at a concentration of development under any coherent definition of this term; or
approximately 0.04 %). But as concentrations increase, it displaces the • the promotion of this possible future technology as the only major
vital oxygen in the air. Air with concentrations of 7 to 8% CO2 by solution to climate change, thereby leading to new fossil fuel
volume causes death by suffocation after 30 to 60 minutes. developments (especially lignite- and black coal–fired
power plants) and an increase in emissions in the short to medium terms.
There are also health hazards when large amounts of CO2 are
explosively released. Although the gas normally disperses quickly after
leaking, it can accumulate in depressions in the landscape or in closed
buildings, since carbon dioxide is heavier than air. It is equally
dangerous when it escapes more slowly and without being noticed in
residential areas; for example, in cellars below houses.
The dangers from such leaks are known from natural volcanic CO2
degassing. Gas escaping at Lake Nyos (a crater lake in Cameroon,
Africa) in 1986 killed over 1,700 people. At least ten people have
died in the Lazio region of Italy in the last 20 years as a result of CO2
being released.
96
image BROWN COAL SURFACE MINING
IN HAMBACH, GERMANY. GIANT COAL
EXCAVATOR AND SPOIL PILE.
© ARNOLD/VISUM/GP
8.2 nuclear technologies To what extent these goals address issues of higher safety standards,
as opposed to improved economics, remains unclear.
Generating electricity from nuclear power involves transferring the
heat produced by a controlled nuclear fission reaction into a Of the new reactor types, the European Pressurised Water Reactor
conventional steam turbine generator. The nuclear reaction takes (EPR) has been developed from the most recent Generation II
place inside a core and surrounded by a containment vessel of varying designs, and is to be launched in France and Germany.120 The stated
design and structure. Heat is removed from the core by a coolant goals for this design are: to improve safety levels—in particular, to
(gas or water) and the reaction controlled by a moderating element reduce the probability of a severe accident by a factor of ten; to
(or “moderator”). achieve mitigation from severe accidents by restricting their
consequences to the plant itself; and to reduce costs. Compared to its
Across the world over the last two decades, there has been a general
predecessors, however, the EPR displays several modifications which
slowdown in building new nuclear power stations. This has been
constitute a reduction of safety margins, including
caused by a variety of factors, in particular: fear of a nuclear
the following:
accident, following the events at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and
Monju; and increased scrutiny of economics and environmental • The volume of the reactor building has been reduced by simplifying
the layout of the emergency core cooling system, 8
factors, such as waste management and radioactive discharges.
and by using the results of new calculations which predict less
energy technologies |
hydrogen development during an accident.
8.2.1 nuclear reactor designs: evolution and
• The thermal output of the plant has been increased by 15%,
safety issues
relative to existing French reactors, by increasing core outlet
Currently, there are 441 nuclear power reactors operating in 30 temperature, letting the main coolant pumps run at higher capacity
countries around the world.117 Although there are dozens of different and modifying the steam generators.
reactor designs and sizes, there are three broad categories either • There are fewer redundant pathways in the safety systems than
currently deployed or under development. in a German Generation II reactor.
NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES
These are:
Several other modifications are hailed as substantial safety
Generation I: Prototype commercial reactors developed in the 1950s improvements, including a “core catcher” system to control a
and 1960s as modified or enlarged military reactors, originally either meltdown accident. Nonetheless, in spite of the changes being
for submarine propulsion or plutonium production. envisaged, there is no guarantee that the safety level of the EPR
Generation II: Mainstream reactor designs in commercial operation actually represents a significant improvement. In particular, reduction
worldwide. of the expected core-melt probability by a factor of ten is not proven.
Furthermore, there are serious doubts as to whether mitigation and
Generation III: New generation reactors now being built. control of a core melt accident by using the core catcher concept will
Generation III reactors include the so-called Advanced Reactors, actually work.
three of which are already in operation in Japan, with more under Finally, Generation IV Generation IV reactors are currently being
construction or planned. About 20 different designs are reported to developed with the aim of commercialization in 20–30 years.
be under development118, most of them “evolutionary” designs derived
from Generation II reactor types, with some modifications but
without introducing drastic changes. Some of them represent more-
innovative approaches. According to the World Nuclear Association,
reactors of Generation III are characterized by
the following:
• a standardized design for each type, to expedite licensing and
reduce capital cost and construction time;
• a simpler and more rugged design, making them easier to operate
and less vulnerable to operational upsets;
• higher availability and longer operating life, typically 60 years;
• reduced possibility of core melt accidents;.
• minimal effect on the environment;
• higher burn-up, to reduce fuel use and the amount of waste; and 117 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, POWER REACTOR INFORMATION SYSTEM
DATABASE.
• burnable absorbers (“poisons”), to extend fuel life.119 118 IAEA 2004; WNO 2004A
119 WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION, ADVANCED NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS, ONLINE AT
<HTTP://WWW.WORLD-NUCLEAR.ORG/INFO/INF08.HTML>.
120 HAINZ 2004.
97
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
8.3 renewable energy technologies • thin film technology Thin-film modules are constructed by
depositing extremely thin layers of photosensitive materials onto a
Renewable energy covers a range of natural sources which are substrate such as glass, stainless steel or flexible plastic. The latter
constantly renewed and therefore, unlike fossil fuels and uranium, will opens up a range of applications, especially for building integration
never be exhausted. Most of them derive from the effect of the sun and (roof tiles) and end-consumer purposes. Four types of thin-film
moon on the earth’s weather patterns. They also produce none of the modules are commercially available at the moment: amorphous
harmful emissions and pollution associated with “conventional” fuels. silicon, cadmium telluride, copper indium/gallium
Although hydroelectric power has been used on an industrial scale since diselenide/disulphide, and multi-junction cells.
the middle of the last century, the serious exploitation of other • other emerging cell technologies (at the development or early
renewable sources has a more recent history. commercial stage): These include concentrated photovoltaic,
consisting of cells built into concentrating collectors that use a lens
8.3.1 solar power (photovoltaics) to focus the concentrated sunlight onto the cells; and organic solar
cells, wherein the active material consists at least partially of
There is more than enough solar radiation available all over the world to organic dye, small volatile organic molecules, or polymer.
8 satisfy a vastly increased demand for solar power systems. The sunlight
which reaches the earth’s surface is enough to provide 2,850 times as systems
energy technologies |
that form the basis of electricity. The most common semiconductor as well as to a back-up battery. Any excess solar electricity produced after
material used in photovoltaic cells is silicon, an element most commonly the battery has been charged is then sold to the network. This system is
found in sand. All PV cells have at least two layers of such ideal for use in areas of unreliable power supply.
semiconductors, one positively charged and one negatively charged. When • off-grid Completely independent of the grid, the system is
light shines on the semiconductor, the electric field across the junction connected to a battery via a charge controller, which stores the
between these two layers causes electricity to flow. The greater the electricity generated and acts as the main power supply. An inverter
intensity of the light, the greater the flow of electricity. A photovoltaic can be used to provide AC power, enabling the use of normal
system does not therefore need bright sunlight in order to operate, and can appliances. Typical off-grid applications are repeater stations for
generate electricity even on cloudy days. Solar PV is different from a solar mobile phones or rural electrification. Rural electrification refers to
thermal collecting system (see below), where the sun’s rays are used to either small, solar home systems covering basic electricity needs or
generate heat, usually for hot water in a house, swimming pool, etc. solar mini-grids, which are larger solar electricity systems that
provide electricity for several households.
The most important parts of a PV system are: the cells, which form
the basic building blocks; the modules, which bring together large
numbers of cells into a unit; and, in some situations, the inverters figure 8.1: photovoltaics technology
used to convert the electricity generated into a form suitable for
everyday use. When a PV installation is described as having a
capacity of 3 kWp (p = peak), this refers to the output of the system 1. LIGHT (PHOTONS)
under standard testing conditions, allowing comparison between 2. FRONT CONTACT GRID
different modules. In central Europe a 3 kWp–rated solar electricity 3. ANTI-REFLECTION COATING
system, with a surface area of approximately 27 square metres, would 1 4. N-TYPE SEMICONDUCTOR
produce enough power to meet all the electricity demand of an 5. BOARDER LAYOUT
energy-conscious household. 6. P-TYPE SEMICONDUCTOR
7. BACKCONTACT
There are several different PV technologies and types of installed system. 2
technologies 3
4
• crystalline silicon technology Crystalline silicon cells are made 5
from thin slices cut from a single crystal of silicon (mono-
crystalline) or from a block of silicon crystals (polycrystalline, or 6
multi-crystalline). This is the most common technology, representing
about 80% of the market today. In addition, this technology also 7
exists in the form of ribbon sheets.
98
image SOLAR PROJECT IN PHITSANULOK, THAILAND. SOLAR FACILITY OF THE
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE AND SCHOOL FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY.
© CHRISTIAN KAISER/GP
image SOLAR PANELS ON CONISTON STATION, NORTH WEST OF ALICE SPRINGS,
NORTHERN TERRITORY.
© GP/SOLNESS
• hybrid system A solar system can be combined with another • central receiver, or solar tower A circular array of heliostats
source of power—a biomass generator, a wind turbine or diesel (large, individually tracking mirrors) is used to concentrate sunlight
generator—to ensure a consistent supply of electricity. A hybrid onto a central receiver mounted at the top of a tower. A heat-
system can be grid-connected, stand-alone or grid support. transfer medium absorbs the highly concentrated radiation reflected
by the heliostats and converts it into thermal energy to be used for
the subsequent generation of superheated steam for turbine
8.3.2 concentrating solar power (CSP)
operation. To date, the heat transfer media demonstrated include
Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants, also called solar thermal water/steam, molten salts, liquid sodium, and air. If pressurised gas
power plants, produce electricity in much the same way as or air is used at very high temperatures of about 1,000°C or more
conventional power stations. They obtain their energy input by as the heat transfer medium, it can even be used to directly replace
concentrating solar radiation and converting it to high-temperature natural gas in a gas turbine, thus making use of the excellent
efficiency (60%+) of modern, gas and steam combined cycles.
steam or gas to drive a turbine or motor engine. Large mirrors
concentrate sunlight into a single line or point. The heat created there Solar tower developers now feel confident that after an
is used to generate steam. This hot, highly pressurised steam is used intermediate scaling-up to 30 MW capacity, grid-connected tower
to power turbines which generate electricity. In sun-drenched regions, power plants can be built up to a capacity of 200 MW solar-only 8
CSP plants can guarantee a large proportion of electricity units. Use of heat storage will increase their flexibility. Although
energy technologies |
production. solar tower plants are considered to be further from
commercialization than parabolic trough systems, they have good
Four main elements are required: a concentrator, a receiver, some longer-term prospects for high conversion efficiencies. Projects are
form of transfer medium or storage, and power conversion. Many being developed in Spain, South Africa and Australia.
different types of system are possible, including combinations with • parabolic dish A dish-shaped reflector is used to concentrate
other renewable and non-renewable technologies, but there are four sunlight onto a receiver located at its focal point. The concentrated
main groups of solar thermal technologies: beam radiation is absorbed into the receiver to heat a fluid or gas
to approximately 750°C. This is then used to generate electricity in
figures 8.2: csp technologies: parabolic trough, central receiver/solar tower and parabolic dish
CENTRAL RECEIVER
REFLECTOR
REFLECTOR RECEIVER/ENGINE
HELIOSTATS
ABSORBER TUBE
99
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
newly developed technology becomes commercially viable. including regions such as central Eastern Europe, central North and
South America, and central Asia. The wind resource out at sea is even
solar domestic hot water and space heating Domestic hot water
more productive than on land, encouraging the installation of offshore
production is the most common application. Depending on the
wind parks with foundations embedded in the ocean floor. In
conditions and the system’s configuration, most of a building’s hot
Denmark, a wind park built in 2002 uses 80 turbines to produce
water requirements can be provided by solar energy. Larger systems
enough electricity for a city with a population of 150,000.
can additionally cover a substantial part of the energy needed for
space heating. There are two main types of technology: Smaller wind turbines can produce power efficiently in areas that
RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
• vacuum tubes The absorber inside the vacuum tube absorbs otherwise have no access to electricity. This power can be used
radiation from the sun and heats up the fluid inside. Additional directly or stored in batteries. New technologies for using the wind’s
radiation is picked up from the reflector behind the tubes. Whatever power are also being developed for exposed buildings in densely
the angle of the sun, the round shape of the vacuum tube allows it populated cities.
to reach the absorber. Even on a cloudy day, when the light is
wind turbine design Significant consolidation of wind turbine design
coming from many angles at once, the vacuum tube collector can
has taken place since the 1980s. The majority of commercial turbines
still be effective.
now operate on a horizontal axis, with three evenly spaced blades.
• flat panel This is basically a box with a glass cover which sits on These are attached to a rotor from which power is transferred
the roof like a skylight. Inside is a series of copper tubes with through a gearbox to a generator. The gearbox and generator are
copper fins attached. The entire structure is coated in a black contained within a housing called a nacelle. Some turbine designs
substance designed to capture the sun’s rays. These rays heat up a
avoid a gearbox by using direct drive. The electricity output is then
water and antifreeze mixture which circulates from the collector
down to the building’s boiler. channelled down the tower to a transformer and eventually into the
local grid network.
solar assisted cooling Solar chillers use thermal energy to produce
cooling and/or to dehumidify the air in a similar way as by a refrigerator Wind turbines can operate from a wind speed of 3–4 metres per
or conventional air-conditioning. This application is well-suited to solar second (m/s) up to about 25 m/s. Limiting their power at high wind
thermal energy, as the demand for cooling is often greatest when there is speeds is achieved either by “stall” regulation—reducing the power
most sunshine. Solar cooling has been successfully demonstrated and output—or “pitch” control—changing the angle of the blades so that
large-scale use can be expected in the future. they no longer offer any resistance to the wind. Pitch control has
become the most common method. The blades can also turn at a
figure 8.3: flat panel solar technology constant or variable speed, with the latter enabling the turbine to
follow more closely the changing wind speed.
100
© P. PETERSEN/DREAMSTIME
image SOLAR PANELS FEATURED IN A RENEWABLE ENERGY EXHIBIT ON BORACAY
ISLAND, ONE OF THE PHILIPPINES’ PREMIER TOURIST DESTINATIONS.
© GP/RODA ANGELES
image VESTAS VM 80 WIND TURBINES AT AN OFFSHORE WIND PARK IN THE WESTERN
PART OF DENMARK.
The main design drivers for current wind technology are: 8.3.5 biomass energy
• high productivity at both low and high wind sites, Biomass is a broad term used to describe material of recent
• grid compatibility, biological origin that can be used as a source of energy. This includes
wood, crops, algae and other plants, as well as agricultural and forest
• acoustic performance, residues. Biomass can be used for a variety of end uses: heating,
• aerodynamic performance, electricity generation, or as fuel for transportation. The term
• visual impact, and “bioenergy” is used for biomass energy systems that produce heat
and/or electricity and “biofuels” for liquid fuels used in transport.
• offshore expansion. Biodiesel manufactured from various crops has become increasingly
Although the existing offshore market represents only just over 1% of used as vehicle fuel, especially as the cost of oil has risen.
the world’s land-based installed wind capacity, the latest Biological power sources are renewable, easily stored, and, if sustainably
developments in wind technology are primarily driven by this harvested, low-carbon. This is because the gas emitted during their transfer
emerging potential. This means that the focus is on the most effective into useful energy can be offset by the carbon dioxide absorbed if, and only
ways to make very large turbines. 8
if, new plants are grown to replace them. There are also significant
energy technologies |
Modern wind technology is available for a range of sites—low and high biodiversity benefits associated with the natural systems from which
wind speeds, desert and arctic climates. European wind farms operate biomass is harvested that must be respected.
with high availability, are generally well integrated into the environment Electricity-generating biomass power plants work just like natural gas
and are accepted by the public. In spite of repeated predictions of a or coal power stations, except that the fuel must be processed before
levelling off at an optimum mid-range size, and the fact that wind it can be burned. These power plants are generally not as large as
turbines cannot get larger indefinitely, turbine size has increased year coal power stations because their fuel supply needs to grow as near as
on year—from units of 20–60 kW in California in the 1980s up to the possible to the plant. Heat generation from biomass power plants can
1
figure 8.5: biomass technology
5
2
6
3 7 3
1
4
8
4 5 6
2
1. HEATED MIXER
1. ROTOR BLADE
2. CONTAINMENT FOR FERMENTATION
2. BLADE ADJUSTMENT
3. BIOGAS STORAGE
3. NACELL
4. COMBUSTION ENGINE
4. ROTOR SHAFT
5. GENERATOR
5. WIND MEASUREMENT
6. WASTE CONTAINMENT
6. GENERATOR
7. SYSTEM CONTROL
8. LIFT
101
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
Pyrolysis is a process whereby biomass is exposed to high Brazil, the preferred feedstock is sugar cane, whereas in the US it
temperatures in the absence of air, causing the biomass to is corn (maize). Bioethanol produced from cereals has a by-product
decompose. The products of pyrolysis always include gas that is a protein-rich animal feed called dried distillers grains with
(“biogas”), liquid (‘bio-oil’) and solid (“char”), with the relative solubles (DDGS). For every tonne of cereals used for ethanol
proportions of each dependent on the fuel characteristics, the production, on average one third will enter the animal feed stream
method of pyrolysis, and the reaction parameters, such as as DDGS. Because of its high protein level, DDGS is currently used
temperature and pressure. Lower temperatures produce more solid as a replacement for soy cake. Bioethanol can either be blended
and liquid products, and higher temperatures more biogas. into gasoline (petrol) directly or be used in the form of ETBE
(ethyl tertiary butyl ether).
• biological systems
These processes are suitable for very wet biomass materials such as • biodiesel is a fuel produced from vegetable oil sourced from
food or agricultural wastes, including farm animal slurry. rapeseed, sunflower seeds or soybeans, as well as from used cooking
oils or animal fats. Recycling of used vegetable oils as feedstock for
Anaerobic digestion Anaerobic digestion means the breakdown of biodiesel production can reduce pollution from discarded oil and
organic waste by bacteria in an oxygen-free environment. This produces provide a new way of transforming a waste product into transport
a biogas typically made up of 65% methane and 35% carbon dioxide. energy. Blends of biodiesel and conventional hydrocarbon-based
Purified biogas can then be used both for heating and electricity diesel are the most common products distributed in the retail
generation. transport fuel market.
Fermentation Fermentation is the process by which growing plants Most countries use a labelling system to explain the proportion of
with a high sugar and starch content are broken down with the help of biodiesel in any fuel mix. Fuel containing 20% biodiesel is labelled
micro-organisms to produce ethanol and methanol. The end product is B20, while pure biodiesel is referred to as B100. Blends of 20%
a combustible fuel that can be used in vehicles. biodiesel with 80% petroleum diesel (B20) can generally be used in
Biomass power station capacities typically range up to 15 MW, but unmodified diesel engines. To use the pure form (B100), an engine
larger plants are possible, of up to 400 MW capacity, with part of may require certain modifications. Biodiesel can also be used as a
the fuel input potentially being fossil fuel, for example pulverized heating fuel in domestic and commercial boilers. Older furnaces may
coal. The world’s largest biomass-fuelled power plant is located at contain rubber parts that would be affected by biodiesel's solvent
Pietarsaari, in Finland. Built in 2001, this is an industrial CHP plant properties, but can otherwise burn it without any conversion.
producing steam (100 MWth) and electricity (240 MWe) for the
local forest industry and district heat for the nearby town. The boiler
is a circulating fluidized-bed boiler designed to generate steam from
bark, sawdust, wood residues, commercial biofuel, and peat.
102
image THE BIOENERGY VILLAGE OF JUEHNDE WHICH WAS THE FIRST COMMUNITY IN
GERMANY TO PRODUCE ALL ITS ENERGY NEEDED FOR HEATING AND ELECTRICITY,
© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
© GP/RODRIGO BALÉIA
WITH CO2 NEUTRAL BIOMASS.
image A NEWLY DEFORESTED AREA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR AGRICULTURAL
EXPANSION IN THE AMAZON, BRAZIL.
energy technologies |
large dams and reservoirs. There are two broad categories of turbines.
ground-source heat pumps.
In an impulse turbine (notably the Pelton), a jet of water impinges on
Geothermal power plants use the earth’s natural heat to vaporize the runner, which is designed to reverse the direction of the jet and
water or an organic medium. The steam created then powers a turbine thereby extracts momentum from the water. This turbine is suitable
which produces electricity. In the US, New Zealand and Iceland, this for high heads and “small” discharges. Reaction turbines (notably
technique has been used extensively for decades. In Germany, where it Francis and Kaplan) run full of water and in effect generate
is necessary to drill many kilometres down to reach the necessary hydrodynamic “lift” forces to propel the runner blades. These turbines
temperatures, it is only in the trial stages. Geothermal heat plants are suitable for medium to low heads and medium to large
3
3
1 2
2
1 5
4 6
4 5
1. PUMP 1. INLET
2. HEAT EXCHANGER 2. SIEVE
3. GAS TURBINE & GENERATOR 3. GENERATOR
4. DRILLING HOLE FOR COLD WATER INJECTION 4. TURBINE
5. DRILLING HOLE FOR WARM WATER EXTRACTION 5. HEAD
6. OUTLET
103
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
8.3.8 ocean energy Wave energy systems can be divided into three groups, described below.
tidal power Tidal power can be harnessed by constructing a dam or • shoreline devices are fixed to the coast or embedded in the
barrage across an estuary or bay with a tidal range of at least five shoreline, with the advantage of easier installation and
metres. Gates in the barrage allow the incoming tide to build up in a maintenance. They also do not require deep-water moorings or long
basin behind it. The gates then close so that when the tide flows out lengths of underwater electrical cable. The disadvantage is that they
experience a much less powerful wave regime. The most advanced
the water can be channelled through turbines to generate electricity.
9
type of shoreline device is the oscillating water column (OWC). One
Tidal barrages have been built across estuaries in France, Canada and example is the Pico plant, a 400 kW–rated shoreline OWC
China but a mixture of high-cost projections coupled with equipped with a Wells turbine, constructed in the 1990s. Another
environmental objections to the effect on estuarial habitats has system that can be integrated into a breakwater is the Seawave
limited the technology’s further expansion. Slot-Cone converter.
wave and tidal stream power In wave power generation, a structure • near shore devices are deployed at moderate water depths (~20–25
interacts with the incoming waves, converting this energy to electricity m) at distances up to ~500 m from the shore. They have the same
through a hydraulic, mechanical or pneumatic power-take-off system. advantages as shoreline devices but are exposed to stronger, more-
8 The structure is kept in position by a mooring system or is placed productive waves. This category includes “point absorber systems.”
directly on the seabed or seashore. Power is transmitted to the seabed • offshore devices exploit the more powerful wave regimes available in
energy technologies |
by a flexible submerged electrical cable and to shore by a sub-sea cable. deep water (>25 m depth). More-recent designs for offshore devices
concentrate on small, modular devices that yield high power output
In tidal stream generation, a machine similar to a wind turbine rotor
when deployed in arrays. One example is the AquaBuOY system, a
is fitted underwater to a column fixed to the sea bed; the rotor then freely floating, heaving point absorber system that reacts against a
rotates to generate electricity from fast-moving currents. Prototypes submersed tube, filled with water. Another example is the Wave
of 300 kW are in operation in the UK. Dragon, which uses a wave reflector design to focus the wave towards
Wave power converters can be made up from connected groups of a ramp and fill a higher-level reservoir.
RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
© USCHI HERING/DREAMSTIME
amounts of space. Wave power has the advantage of providing a more
predictable supply than wind energy and can be located in the ocean
without much visual intrusion.
There is no commercially leading technology on wave power
conversion at present. Different systems are being developed at sea
1
for prototype testing. The largest grid-connected system installed so
far is the 2.25 MW Pelamis, with linked semi-submerged cyclindrical
sections, operating off the coast of Portugal. Most development work
has been carried out in the UK.
© MAXFX/DREAMSTIME
© MCDONNELL/ISTOCK
2 3
104
climate and energy policy recommendations
GLOBAL CLIMATE POLICY TARGETS AND INCENTIVES FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND
ENERGY POLICY AND MARKET RENEWABLES INNOVATION
REGULATION RENEWABLES FOR HEATING AND
COOLING
canadian society.”
STATEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE SIGNED BY FORMER CANADIAN
PRIME MINISTERS CAMPBELL, CHRETIEN, MARTIN AND TURNER.
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
If the Energy [R]evolution is to happen, then governments around the Eliminating direct and indirect subsidies to fossil fuels and nuclear
world—including Canada’s—need to play a major part. Their power would encourage a level playing field across the energy sector.
contribution will include regulating the energy market on the supply and Scrapping these payments would, according to UNEP, reduce
demand side; educating everyone, from consumers to industrialists; and greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 6% a year, while
stimulating the market for renewable energy and energy efficiency, by a contributing 0.1% to global GDP. Moreover, these subsidies rarely
range of economic mechanisms. There are a number of successful policies address poverty directly, thereby challenging the widely held view that
already adopted that can serve as models. some of these subsidies assist the poor.
As a first step, governments should agree on further, binding emissions According to a 2005 report for the Climate Action Network,
reduction commitments in a second phase of the Kyoto Protocol. Only Canadian oil and gas companies (including the tar sands) benefited
by setting stringent greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets will from a federal subsidy of $1,085 million in 1996. That amount had
the price of carbon become sufficiently high to properly reflect its increased 33 per cent, to $1.4 billion, by 2002. Total expenditure over
true cost to the environment and society. This will in turn stimulate the 1996 to 2002 period was $8.3 billion.123
investments in renewable energy. Through funding for emissions
As progress on fossil subsidies, the Harper government points to its
reduction and adaptation, industrialized countries will also promote
2007 Budget commitment to phase out the Accelerated Capital Cost
renewable energy and energy efficiency in developing countries.
Allowance (ACCA) for the tar sands by 2016, starting in 2011, as
Support is also needed for the introduction of feed-in tariffs in the well as the phaseout of two other tax subsidies, “earned depletion”
9 developing world in order to duplicate the success of countries such and “resource allowance.” However, the overall oil and gas sector tax-
as Germany and Spain, where the growth of renewable energy has rate has actually decreased relative to the 2001–2002 level, and five
climate & energy policy |
boomed. Energy efficiency measures should be more strongly major tax subsidies, identified in the 2005 Climate Action Network
supported through the Kyoto process and its financial mechanisms. report, still remain in place.
Carbon pricing can also play an important role in the success of the The remaining Canadian tax subsidies include124:
Energy [R]evolution. The price of carbon must be sufficiently high to • Canadian Exploration Expense,
reflect its real costs to the environment and society. Only then can we
create a level playing field for efficiency and renewable energy. • Canadian Development Expense,
Industrialized countries should ensure that all financial flows to energy • Canadian Oil and Gas Property Expense,
CLIMATE POLICY
projects in developing countries are targeted toward renewable energy • Atlantic Investment Tax Credit, and
and energy efficiency. All financial assistance (including grants, loans or
• Scientific Research and Experimental Development Tax Credit.
trade guarantees) for fossil fuel and nuclear power production, should be
phased out in the next two to five years. International financial According to the Pembina Institute, that level of subsidy rose to a
institutions, export credit agencies and development agencies should level of about $2 billion per year in 2010.
provide the required finance to facilitate the implementation of the The Harper government is also providing direct subsidies to the fossil
Energy [R]evolution in developing countries. fuel industry, in the form of support for carbon capture and storage
We encourage all countries to join the Energy [R]evolution by (CCS) projects. In its March 2010 budget, the Harper government
adopting the following policies. announced “over $800 million” in subsidies for carbon capture and
storage projects, under two programs, the Clean Energy Fund , and
the ecoEnergy Technology Initiative.125
9.1 climate policy
Subsidies have already been provided under the Clean Energy Fund
At the most basic level, policies to fight climate change must
for three large-scale carbon capture and storage projects:
discourage the use of fossil fuels, and encourage the use of renewable
energy. • $120 million for the Shell Quest CCS project,
Action: Phase out subsidies for fossil fuel and nuclear power • $315.8 million for the TransAlta Keephills CCS project for a coal-fired
production and inefficient energy use power plant near Edmonton, and
• $30 million for the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line project.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates the
annual bill for worldwide energy subsidies at about US$300 billion, references
or 0.7% of global GDP.122 Approximately 80% of this is spent on 122 UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME, REFORMING ENERGY SUBSIDIES:
OPPORTUNITIES TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA, AUGUST 2008.
funding fossil fuels and more than 10% to support nuclear energy. 123 AMY TAYLOR, ET AL., GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON CANADA'S OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY:
The lion's share is used to artificially lower the real price of fossil UNDERMINING CANADA'S KYOTO COMMITMENT, PEMBINA INSTITUTE, FOR THE CLIMATE
ACTION NETWORK, 31 JANUARY 2005, AVAILABLE AT
fuels. Subsidies (including loan guarantees) make energy efficiency <HTTP://WWW.GREENECONOMICS.CA/PUB/181>.
less attractive, keep renewable energy out of the market place and 124 IBID
125 GOVERNMENT OF CANADA, BUDGET 2010: LEADING THE WAY ON JOBS AND GROWTH:
prop up non-competitive, inefficient technologies. TABLED IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS BY THE HONOURABLE JAMES M. FLAHERTY, P.C.,
M.P. MINISTER OF FINANCE, 4 MARCH 2010. FOR REFERENCES TO CARBON CAPTURE AND
STORAGE, SEE PAGES 103 & 245.
106
image A WOMAN IN FRONT OF HER FLOODED HOUSE IN
SATJELLIA ISLAND. DUE TO THE REMOTENESS OF THE
SUNDARBANS ISLANDS, SOLAR PANELS ARE USED BY
© GP/PETER CATON
MANY VILLAGERS. AS A HIGH TIDE INVADES THE ISLAND,
PEOPLE REMAIN ISOLATED SURROUNDED BY THE FLOODS.
Greenpeace has condemned CCS as a risky and highly expensive Action: Introduce the “polluter pays” principle
technological “false solution” that will divert much-needed funding
A substantial indirect form of subsidy comes from the fact that the
from more-reliable and more-cost-effective alternatives such as
energy market does not incorporate the external, societal costs of the
renewable energy and efficiency.126
use of fossil fuels and nuclear power. Pricing structures in the energy
Nuclear subsidies in Canada have also been an ongoing issue. Direct markets should reflect the full environmental and social costs of
parliamentary subsidies to the wholly owned federal crown corporation energy production.
Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) have totalled over $20.9
This requires that governments apply a “polluter pays” system that
billion since AECL was founded in 1952.127 There are a number of other
charges the emitters accordingly or applies suitable compensation to
hidden subsidies that are difficult to calculate.128 These include protection
non-emitters. Adoption of polluter-pays taxation to electricity sources,
from liability for nuclear accidents under the Nuclear Liability Act that
or equivalent compensation to renewable energy sources, and exclusion
limits liability for nuclear operators to $75 million at each plant.
of renewables from environment-related energy taxation is essential to
In another massive subsidy to Canada’s nuclear industry, in 1998 the achieve fairer competition in the world’s electricity markets.
Ontario government relieved the successor companies of Ontario
The real cost of conventional energy production includes expenses
Hydro of about $20 billion in “stranded” nuclear debt, when the
absorbed by society, such as health impacts and environmental
former utility was restructured. All ratepayers in Ontario continue to
degradation—from mercury pollution to acid rain—as well as the global
pay a charge for this nuclear debt on every electricity bill.129
negative impacts of climate change. Hidden costs include the waiving of 9
A large and uncertain liability hangs over the nuclear industry in the nuclear accident insurance that is too expensive to be covered by the
CLIMATE POLICY
price tag of $26 billion for two 1,200 MW reactors—more than three quantify. How do you put a price on lost homes on Pacific Islands as a
times the expected cost. While not an explicit rejection of subsidies for result of melting icecaps or on deteriorating health and human lives?
nuclear power, these decisions, when coupled with the introduction of a
An ambitious project, ExternE, funded by the European Commission,
feed-in tariff system for renewable energy (highlighted below), are a
has tried to quantify the full environmental costs of electricity
promising sign. The government is, however, still considering the
generation. It estimates that full cost accounting would double the cost
refurbishment of the Darlington nuclear station.
of producing electricity from coal or oil, and would increase the cost of
The G-20 countries, meeting in Philadelphia in September 2009, called for gas-fired electricity by 30%. If those environmental costs were levied
world leaders to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies, but hardly any progress has on electricity generation, many renewable energy sources would not
been made since then towards implementing the resolution. need any financial support. If, at the same time, direct and indirect
subsidies to fossil fuels and nuclear power were removed, there would
In Canada, there is solid support for eliminating fossil fuel subsidies
be little or no need to support renewable electricity generation.
within the federal bureaucracy and some support in the federal Cabinet,
although virtually no action has been taken. In a leaked government
briefing note prepared for federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty in
advance of the 2010 G20 summit in Toronto, the Deputy Minister of references
Finance recommended that the government “Take opportunity to 126 GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, FALSE HOPE: WHY CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE
WON’T SAVE THE CLIMATE, 5 MAY 2008.
selectively rationalize fossil fuel measures (e.g. tax preferences for 127 THIS FIGURE CONVERTS ANNUAL SUBSIDIES IN DOLLARS OF THE YEAR INTO 2005
producers).” This recommendation was made on the grounds that DOLLARS. SEE: TOM ADAMS, FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES TO ATOMIC ENERGY OF
CANADA LIMITED, ENERGY PROBE, 11 JANUARY, 2006.
producer subsidies are no longer necessary, removing them is consistent 128 GREENPEACE CANADA HAS MONETIZED THIS HIDDEN NUCLEAR LIABILITY SUBSIDY
with making the tax system more sector-neutral, and eliminating subsidies TO NUCLEAR OPERATORS IN THE RANGE OF 5.4 TO 11.0 CENTS/KWH. SEE: GORDON
THOMSON, THE NUCLEAR LIABILITY AND COMPENSATION ACT: IS IT APPROPRIATE FOR
would help balance government budgets. The memo also noted that THE 21ST CENTURY?, GREENPEACE CANADA, 12 NOVEMBER 2009.
removing fossil fuel subsidies “could also help respond to his 129 ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE, FACT SHEET: PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES, 26
OCTOBER 1998. SEE ALSO: FINANCIAL RESTRUCTURING & PRELIMINARY STRANDED
[Environment Minister Jim Prentice’s] concern about maintaining DEBT, 26 OCTOBER 1998.
Canada’s reputation as a ‘clean energy superpower’, and help defend 130 MINISTRY OF FINANCE, “G-20 COMMITMENT—FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES,”
MEMORANDUM FROM MICHAEL HORGAN TO MINISTER OF FINANCE, 18 MARCH, 2010,
against U.S. government or individual company actions targeted, for AVAILABLE AT
example, against oil sands.”130 To date, however, the Prime Minister’s <HTTP://COMMUNITIES.CANADA.COM/SHAREIT/BLOGS/POLITICS/ARCHIVE/2010/05/28/PRE
NTICE-AND-FLAHERTY-BEHIND-CLOSED-DOORS-WITH-PM.ASPX>.
response has been consistent with the second (not-recommended) option 131 MIKE DE SOUZA, “HARPER SIDESTEPS QUESTIONS ABOUT ELIMINATING SUBSIDIES
in the memo: minimize the commitment as a way of avoiding it.131 TO FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY”, CANWEST NEWS SERVICE, 26 MAY 2010.
107
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
One way to achieve this is by a carbon tax that ensures a fixed price receive priority treatment. Governments should propose more-detailed
is paid for each unit of carbon that is released into the atmosphere. procedural guidelines, to strengthen the existing legislation and at the
Such taxes have been applied in Sweden and Norway. Another same time streamline the licensing procedures.
approach is through emissions trading (cap and trade), as operating
Other barriers include the lack of long-term and integrated resource
in the European Union and planned in New Zealand. This concept
planning at national, regional and local levels; the lack of predictability
gives pollution reduction a value in the marketplace.
and stability in the markets; grid ownership by vertically integrated
In theory, cap and trade prompts technological innovation that reduces companies; and the absence of (access to) grids for large-scale
pollution down to the required levels. Stringent cap and trade can renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind power or concentrating
harness market forces to achieve cost-effective greenhouse gas emission solar power plants. The International Energy Agency has identified
reductions. But this will only happen if governments implement true Denmark, Spain and Germany as examples of countries exhibiting best
“polluter pays” cap-and-trade schemes, with carbon prices that reflect practice in a reformed electricity market that supports the integration
the full cost of fossil fuel pollution. of renewable energy.
Government programmes that allocate a maximum amount of In order to remove these market barriers, governments should:
emissions to industrial plants have proved to be effective in promoting • streamline planning procedures and permit systems, and integrate
energy efficiency in certain industrial sectors. To be successful, least-cost network planning;
however, these allowances need to be strictly limited and their
9 allocation auctioned. • ensure access to the grid at fair and transparent prices;
• ensure priority access and transmission security for electricity
climate & energy policy |
• ensure the disclosure of fuel mix and environmental impact to end users;
paid quarterly.132
• establish progressive electricity and final energy tariffs so that the
While both are relatively modest carbon prices, relative to what price of a kWh costs more for those who consume more;
would be required to achieve major reductions, their significance is
• set up demand management programmes designed to limit energy
primarily political. The Quebec tax has not been controversial, but the
demand, reduce peak loads and maximize the capacity factor of the
British Columbia carbon tax became a central issue in the 2009 generation system. Demand-side management should also be
election campaign. The British Columbia Liberal Party, which had adapted to facilitate the maximum possible share of renewable
introduced the tax, was able to win a third term and demonstrate that energies in the power mix; and
a carbon tax does not guarantee electoral defeat.
• introduce pricing structures in the energy markets to reflect the full
A recent analysis found that, even with strong complementary regulations costs to society of producing energy.
and public investments, achieving the Canadian government’s pre-
In Canada, Ontario has gone the farthest in this area, following the
Copenhagen target (3% below 1990 levels by 2020) would require a
enactment of a landmark piece of legislation, the May 2009 Green
carbon price starting at $40 per tonne in 2011, rising to $67 per tonne
Energy Act, which put in place both a system of feed-in tariffs and
by 2015, and to $100 per tonne by 2020.133
improved grid access for renewables.
108
image A YOUNG INDIGENOUS NENET BOY PRACTICES WITH HIS ROPE. THE BOYS ARE GIVEN A ROPE
FROM PRETTY MUCH THE MOMENT THEY ARE BORN. BY THE AGE OF SIX THEY ARE OUT HELPING
LASSOING THE REINDEER. THE INDIGENOUS NENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT
THEIR REINDEER DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUND AND THEY DO NOT OVER FISH THE LAKES. THE
© GP/WILL ROSE
YAMAL PENINSULA IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE
AND RUSSIAS ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.
marginalized by distortions in the world’s electricity markets created of correcting market failures in the electricity sector. Their aim is to
by decades of massive financial, political and structural support to support market penetration of those renewable energy technologies, such
conventional technologies. Developing renewables will therefore as wind and solar thermal, that currently suffer from unfair competition
require strong political and economic efforts, especially through laws due to direct and indirect support for fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
which guarantee stable tariffs over a period of up to 20 years. They will also provide incentives for technology improvements and cost
reductions so that technologies such as PV, wave and tidal can compete
At present, new renewable energy generators have to compete with old
with conventional sources in the future.
nuclear and fossil-fuelled power stations which produce electricity at
minimal costs because ratepayers and taxpayers have already paid the Overall, there are two types of incentive to promote the deployment of
interest and depreciation on the original investments. In many countries renewable energy. These are fixed price systems, where the government
(including Canada and the United States), utilities have been relieved of dictates the electricity price (or premium) paid to the producer and lets
debt for nuclear and fossil fuel plants as part of restructuring processes. the market determine the quantity, and renewable quota systems
Political action is needed to overcome these distortions and create a (known as renewable portfolio standards in the United States), where
level playing field. the government dictates the quantity of renewable electricity and leaves
it to the market to determine the price.
Support mechanisms for different sectors and technologies can vary
according to regional characteristics, priorities or starting points, but Both systems create a protected market against a background of
some general principles should apply: subsidized, depreciated conventional generators whose external
environmental costs are not accounted for. Their aim is to provide incentives 9
• Long-term stability: Policy makers need to make sure that
for technology improvements and cost reductions, leading to cheaper
Action: Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy The European Commission has concluded that fixed-price systems are
and combined heat and power generation to be preferred above quota systems. If implemented well, fixed price
systems are a reliable, bankable support scheme for renewable energy
An increasing number of countries have established targets for projects, providing long-term stability and leading to lower costs. In
renewable energy, either as a general target or as broken down by sector order for such systems to achieve the best possible results, however,
for power, transport and heating. These are either expressed in terms of priority access to the grid must be ensured.
installed capacity or as a percentage of energy consumption. For
example, China and the European Union have targets of 20% renewable
energy by 2020, and New Zealand has a target of 90% by 2025. 9.3.1 fixed price systems
Although these targets are not always legally binding, they have served Fixed price systems include investment subsidies, fixed feed-in tariffs,
as an important catalyst for increasing the share of renewable energy fixed-premium systems, and tax credits.
throughout the world. The electricity sector clearly needs a long-term • Investment subsidies are capital payments usually made on the
horizon, as investments are often only paid back after 20 to 40 years. basis of the rated power (in kW) of the generator. It is generally
Renewable energy targets therefore need to have short-, medium- and acknowledged, however, that systems which base the amount of
long-term stages and must be legally binding in order to be effective. In support on generator size rather than electricity output can lead to
order for the proportion of renewable energy to increase significantly, less efficient-technology development. There is therefore a global
targets must also be set in accordance with the potential for each trend away from these payments, although they can be effective
technology (wind, solar, biomass, etc.) and by taking into account when combined with other incentives.
existing and planned infrastructure. Detailed analysis is needed to • Fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs) widely adopted in Europe, have proven
define the pathway and timeline to a 100%-renewable energy system. extremely successful in expanding wind energy in Germany, Spain and
Denmark. Operators are paid a fixed price for every kWh of electricity
they feed into the grid. In Germany the price paid varies according to
Action: Provide a stable return for investors through price the relative maturity of the particular technology and diminishes each
support mechanisms year to reflect falling costs. The additional cost of the system is borne
by taxpayers or electricity consumers.
Price support mechanisms for renewable energy are a practical means
109
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
The main benefit of an FIT is that it is administratively simple and renewable capacity in a country or state. Although other factors
encourages better planning. Although the FIT is not associated with are usually taken into account, the lowest-priced bid invariably
a formal power purchase agreement (PPA), distribution companies wins. This system has been used to promote wind power in Ireland,
are usually obliged to purchase all the production from renewable France, the UK, Denmark and China. In Canada, Quebec has
installations. Germany has reduced the political risk of the system’s launched a bidding process for 4,000 MW of wind power to be in
being changed, by guaranteeing payments for 20 years. The main place by 2015.136
problem associated with a fixed price system is that it does not lend
The downside is that investors can bid an uneconomically low price
itself easily to adjustment, whether up or down, to reflect changes
in order to win the contract, and then not build the project. Under
in the production costs of renewable technologies.
the UK’s NFFO (Non–Fossil Fuel Obligation) tender system, for
• Fixed premium systems sometimes called “environmental bonus” example, many contracts remained unused. It was eventually
mechanisms, operate by adding a fixed premium to the basic abandoned. If properly designed, however, with long contracts, a
wholesale electricity price. From an investor perspective, the total clear link to planning consent and a possible minimum price,
price received per kWh is less predictable than under a feed-in tariff tendering for large-scale projects could be effective, as it has been
because it depends on a constantly changing electricity price. From a for offshore oil and gas extraction in Europe’s North Sea.
market perspective, however, it is argued that a fixed premium is
• Tradable green certificate (TGC) systems operate by offering
easier to integrate into the overall electricity market because those
“green certificates” for every kWh generated by a renewable
involved will be reacting to market price signals. Spain is the most
producer. The value of these certificates, which can be traded on a
prominent country to have adopted a fixed-premium system.
9 market, is then added to the value of the basic electricity. A green
• Tax credits offer a credit against tax payments for every kWh certificate system usually operates in combination with a rising
climate & energy policy |
produced. In the United States the market has been driven by a quota of renewable electricity generation. Power companies are
federal Production Tax Credit (PTC) of approximately USD 1.8 bound by law to purchase an increasing proportion of renewables
cents per kWh. It is adjusted annually for inflation. In Canada, the input. Countries which have adopted this system include the UK
federal government recently ended its support for the and Italy in Europe and many individual states in the United
1 cent/kWh ecoEnergy Programme for Renewable Energy.134 States, where it is known as a Renewable Portfolio Standard.
Compared with a system using a fixed tender price, the TGC model is
The bright spot in Canada has been Ontario, which established a
more risky for the investor (because the price fluctuates on a daily
feed-in tariff system as part of the May 2009 Green Energy Act.
basis) unless effective markets for long-term certificate (and electricity)
This has resulted in over $18 billion worth of new investment in
contracts are developed. Such markets do not currently exist. The system
RENEWABLE HEATING AND COOLING
RENEWABLE CAPACITY
Action: Establish targets and incentives for renewable heating
and cooling.
Solar 1,255 MW
Wind 4,692 MW Policies should make sure that specific targets and appropriate
Biomass 1,178 MW measures to support renewable heating and cooling are part of any
national renewables strategy. These should include financial
Hydro 633 MW
incentives, awareness-raising campaigns, training of installers,
Total 7,758 MW
architects and heating engineers, and demonstration projects. For new
buildings, and those undergoing major renovation, an obligation to
Another 157 projects have been approved, pending improvements to the cover a minimum share of heat consumption by renewables should be
transmission system that would enable them to connect to the grid. introduced, as already implemented in some countries. At the same
110
image A WORKER ENTERS A TURBINE TOWER FOR MAINTENANCE AT DABANCHENG
© N. BEHRING-CHISHOLM/GP
WIND FARM. CHINA’S BEST WIND RESOURCES ARE MADE POSSIBLE BY THE NATURAL
BREACH IN TIANSHAN (TIAN MOUNTAIN).
image WOMEN WEAR MASKS AS THEY RIDE BIKES TO WORK IN THE POLLUTED TOWN
OF LINFEN. LINFEN, A CITY OF ABOUT 4.3 MILLION, IS ONE OF THE MOST POLLUTED
© GP/HU WEI
CITIES IN THE WORLD. CHINA’S INCREASINGLY POLLUTED ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY
A RESULT OF THE COUNTRY’S RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND CONSEQUENTLY A LARGE
INCREASE IN PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION, WHICH IS ALMOST ENTIRELY
PRODUCED BY BURNING COAL.
time, increased R&D efforts should be undertaken, particularly in the equipment, and helping consumers overcome barriers such as long
fields of heat storage and renewable cooling. pay-back periods or higher up-front costs.
Governments should also promote the development of combined heat Action: Support innovation in energy efficiency, low-carbon
and power generation in those industrial sectors that are most attractive transportation and renewable energy production
for CHP: where there is a demand for heat either directly or through a
Innovation will play an important role in the Energy [R]evolution, and is
local (existing or potential) district heating system. Governments should
needed to achieve ever-improving efficiency and emissions standards.
set targets and efficiency standards for CHP and provide financial
Programmes supporting development and diffusion for efficiency and
incentives for investment in industrial installations.
renewable energy are a traditional focus of energy and environmental
policies. Energy innovations face barriers all along the energy supply
5. energy efficiency and innovation chain—from research and development (R&D) to demonstration
projects and widespread deployment. Direct government support through
Canada’s primary energy and electricity consumption per unit of GDP is
a variety of fiscal instruments, such as tax incentives, is vital to
the highest among IEA countries. Final energy consumption has grown
hastening deployment of radically new technologies, due to a lack of
continuously over the past decade, though at a slower rate than the
industry investment. Thus, there is a role for the public sector in
economy as a whole.137
increasing investment directly and in correcting market and regulatory
Action: Set stringent efficiency and emissions standards for obstacles that inhibit investment in new technology
appliances, buildings, power plants and vehicles 9
Governments need to invest in research and development of more-
111
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
• Consumer awareness Governments should inform consumers energy is for governments to regulate the efficiency of private cars
(and/or set up systems that compel retailers and manufacturers to and other transport vehicles, in order to push manufacturers to
do so), about the energy efficiency of the products they use and buy. reduce emissions through downsizing, and design and technology
Consumers often make their choices based on non-financial factors improvement. Improvements in efficiency will reduce CO2 emissions
but lack the necessary information. irrespective of the fuel used.
• Energy labelling Labels provide the means to inform consumers of In April 2009, the Canadian federal government issued a notice of intent
the product's relative or absolute performance and its energy to regulate vehicle emissions, starting with the 2011 model year.141 The
operating costs. Governments should support the development of federal government has also announced that it is working with the United
endorsement and comparison labels for electrical appliances. The States toward the development and implementation of common North
EnergyStar labelling system in Canada provides a good base to American standards. This is a welcome development, particularly as the
1
build on, and should be expanded. Obama administration is adopting the more rigorous California standard,
but Canada needs to ensure continuous improvement.
9.5.2 buildings Emissions standards should provide for an average reduction of 5 g
CO2/km/year in industrialized countries. These standards need to be
• Residential and commercial building codes Energy efficiency in mandatory. To dissuade car makers from overpowering high-end cars, a
buildings is hampered by significant market barriers. The model CO2 emissions limit for individual car models should be introduced.
national building code should be updated and serve as a minimum
standard for provincial governments, with new houses starting at • Electric vehicles After maximizing efficiency gains, further
9 50% higher efficiency than current norms, and new commercial reductions can be achieved by using low-emission fuels. Governments
buildings built to LEED Gold specifications. should create incentives to promote the further development of
climate & energy policy |
that is wasted.”
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
J joule, a measure of energy: • Wood and wood products (other than pulp and paper)
kJ = 1,000 Joules,
• Construction
MJ = 1 million Joules,
GJ = 1 billion Joules, • Textile and Leather
PJ = 1015 Joules,
EJ = 1018 Joules
Transport sector: The Transport sector includes all fuels from transport
such as road , railway, aviation, domestic navigation. Fuel used for ocean,
GLOSSARY
W watt, measure of electrical capacity: costal and inland fishing is included in “Other Sectors”.
kW = 1,000 watts,
MW = 1 million watts,
Other sectors: Other sectors cover agriculture, forestry, fishing,
GW = 1 billion watts
residential, commercial and public services
114
image MINOTI SINGH AND HER SON AWAIT FOR CLEAN
WATER SUPPLY BY THE RIVERBANK IN DAYAPUR
VILLAGE IN SATJELLIA ISLAND: “WE DO NOT HAVE
© GP/PETER CATON
CLEAN WATER AT THE MOMENT AND ONLY ONE TIME WE
WERE LUCKY TO BE GIVEN SOME RELIEF. WE ARE NOW
WAITING FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO SUPPLY US WITH
WATER TANKS”.
10
115
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
116
canada: energy [r]evolution scenario
table 10.7: canada: electricity generation table 10.10: canada: installed capacity
TWh/a 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Power plants 630 641 655 662 667 584 Power plants 121 134 144 156 166 154
Coal 46 45 43 36 24 0 Coal 7 7 7 6 4 0
Lignite 70 48 27 8 0 0 Lignite 10 8 5 1 0 0
Gas 31 89 133 134 110 9 Gas 7 21 31 31 25 2
Oil 9 3 0 0 0 0 Oil 2 1 0 0 0 0
Diesel 1 0 0 0 0 0 Diesel 1 0 0 0 0 0
Nuclear 93 48 12 0 0 0 Nuclear 13 7 2 0 0 0
Biomass 8 13 15 14 9 2 Biomass 2 2 3 2 1 0
Hydro 368 377 389 397 410 437 Hydro 77 80 82 84 87 93
Wind 3 16 27 58 94 110 Wind 2 6 10 20 32 38
PV 0 2 5 8 10 12 PV 0 1 3 5 6 7
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 1 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar thermal power plants 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solar thermal power plants 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ocean energy 0 1 3 6 10 14 Ocean energy 0 1 3 6 10 14
Combined heat & power production 10 19 27 38 53 71 Combined heat & power production 2 4 6 8 11 14
Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lignite 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lignite 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gas 10 16 22 27 30 26 Gas 2 4 5 6 7 6
Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0
Biomass 0 2 5 11 21 42 Biomass 0 0 1 2 4 8
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 1 2 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHP by producer
Main activity producers 10 16 21 24 27 31 CHP by producer
Autoproducers 0 3 6 14 26 40 Main activity producers 2 4 5 5 6 6
Autoproducers 0 1 1 3 5 8
Total generation 640 660 682 700 720 655
Fossil 166 201 226 205 164 35 Total generation 123 138 150 164 177 168
Coal 46 45 44 36 24 0 Fossil 29 41 48 44 36 8
Lignite 70 48 27 8 0 0 Coal 7 7 7 6 4 0
Gas 41 105 155 161 140 36 Lignite 10 8 5 1 0 0
Oil 9 3 0 0 0 0 Gas 9 25 36 37 32 8
Diesel 1 0 0 0 0 0 Oil 2 1 0 0 0 0
Nuclear 93 48 12 0 0 0 Diesel 1 0 0 0 0 0
Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 13 7 2 0 0 0
Renewables 380 411 444 495 556 620 Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 368 377 389 397 410 437 Renewables 81 90 101 119 141 160
Wind 3 16 27 58 94 110 Hydro 77 80 82 84 87 93
PV 0 2 5 8 10 12 Wind 2 6 10 20 32 38
Biomass 8 15 20 25 30 44 PV 0 1 3 5 6 7
Geothermal 0 0 0 1 2 3 Biomass 2 2 4 5 5 8
Solar thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ocean energy 0 1 3 6 10 14 Solar thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ocean energy 0 1 3 6 10 14
Distribution losses 54 53 51 47 43 39
Own consumption electricity 52 52 50 47 44 41 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 2 8 15 31 48 59
Electricity for hydrogen production
Final energy consumption (electricity)
0
508
0
530
6
550
11
571
15
594
11
540
Share of fluctuating RES 1.7% 5.7% 10.3% 18.7% 27.3% 35.2% 10
RES share 65.9% 65.3% 67.3% 72.9% 79.7% 95.5%
Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 3 19 35 72 114 136
APPENDIX - CANADA
Heat from CHP 35 37 55 92 139 204 Solar 0 68 127 328 399 341
Fossil fuels 34 31 41 55 63 63 Biomass 546 652 745 884 952 994
Biomass 1 6 14 32 65 119 Geothermal 0 20 49 169 290 311
Geothermal 0 0 0 4 10 21 Ocean Energy 0 2 11 22 36 50
Fuel cell (hydrogen) 0 0 0 0 0 0 RES share 15.3% 18.5% 22.2% 32.1% 44.1% 61.4%
‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 513 1,506 3,705 5,820 8,523
Direct heating1) 3,006 2,952 2,815 2,363 1,880 1,262
Fossil fuels 2,666 2,488 2,251 1,532 890 320
Biomass 340 379 394 364 364 393
Solar collectors 0 60 108 291 351 287 table 10.12: canada: final energy demand
Geothermal 0 25 62 175 275 262 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ/a
Total heat supply1) 3,042 3,012 2,900 2,584 2,188 1,619 Total (incl. non-energy use) 8,583 8,547 8,320 7,492 6,570 5,364
Fossil fuels 2,700 2,519 2,292 1,587 953 384 Total (energy use) 7,614 7,609 7,323 6,466 5,515 4,280
Biomass 343 406 435 507 564 634 Transport 2,422 2,450 2,348 2,041 1,699 1,256
Solar collectors 0 61 109 299 363 298 Oil products 2,206 2,201 1,953 1,376 747 290
Geothermal 0 26 64 191 308 303 Natural gas 174 174 174 203 231 259
Fuel cell (hydrogen) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Biofuels 28 33 53 82 103 75
RES share 11.3% 16.4% 21.0% 38.6% 56.4% 76.3% Electricity 15 41 152 353 579 601
(including RES electricity) RES electricity 9 26 99 249 447 569
‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 58 268 765 1,344 2,094 Hydrogen 0 1 15 27 39 30
RES share Transport 1.5% 2.4% 6.9% 17.2% 34.2% 53.5%
1) heat from electricity (direct and from electric heat pumps) not included; covered in the model under ‘electric appliances’
Industry 2,398 2,386 2,252 1,854 1,422 864
Electricity 730 742 708 604 485 319
table 10.9: canada: co 2 emissions RES electricity 434 462 461 427 375 302
District heat 30 20 31 55 89 122
MILL t/a 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 RES district heat 2 11 19 48 82 118
Coal 77 67 51 14 0 0
Condensation power plants 141 133 122 95 67 4 Oil products 259 190 128 49 6 3
Coal 42 41 39 31 21 0 Gas 1,001 968 910 687 437 152
Lignite 78 51 26 8 0 0 Solar 0 46 72 127 126 75
Gas 14 38 57 56 46 4 Biomass and waste 300 348 342 277 219 150
Oil 7 2 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 4 11 41 60 41
Diesel 1 0 0 0 0 0 Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 0 0
RES share Industry 30.7% 36.5% 40.2% 49.6% 60.6% 79.5%
Combined heat & power production 7 6 8 10 11 9
Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Sectors 2,794 2,774 2,724 2,571 2,393 2,160
Lignite 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity 1,085 1,125 1,120 1,098 1,074 1,023
Gas 6 6 8 10 11 9 RES electricity 644 700 729 776 829 968
Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 District heat 6 39 54 166 218 235
RES district heat 0 21 34 144 201 227
CO2 emissions electricity Coal 1 0 0 0 0 0
& steam generation 148 139 130 105 77 13 Oil products 548 465 409 181 49 44
Coal 42 42 39 31 20 0 Gas 1,075 1,044 975 732 471 171
Lignite 78 51 26 8 0 0 Solar 0 15 36 164 225 212
Gas 20 44 65 66 57 13 Biomass and waste 78 71 95 130 193 299
Oil & diesel 8 2 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 15 35 100 163 177
RES share Other Sectors 25.9% 29.6% 34.1% 51.1% 67.3% 87.2%
CO2 emissions by sector 547 516 466 334 206 71
% of 1990 emissions 120% 113% 102% 73% 45% 16% Total RES 1,494 1,751 1,997 2,583 3,054 3,242
Industry 82 75 66 46 29 15 RES share 19.6% 23.0% 27.3% 40.0% 55.4% 75.7%
Other sectors 101 94 86 55 31 14
Transport 159 159 141 99 54 21 Non energy use 969 938 996 1,026 1,055 1,084
Electricity & steam generation 148 138 128 101 71 6 Oil 812 786 835 860 884 909
District heating 56 51 45 32 21 16 Gas 140 135 144 148 152 157
Coal 17 16 17 18 18 19
Population (Mill.) 32.9 35 37 40 42 44
CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita) 16.6 14.5 12.6 8.3 4.9 1.6
117
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
Share of fluctuating RES 0.5% 3.4% 8.6% 14.9% 20.8% 25.4% RES share 65.9% 67.3% 74.0% 80.2% 86.9% 97.0%
RES share 59.4% 64.3% 71.4% 77.8% 84.3% 96.2%
‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 21 69 181 297 432 table 10.17: canada: primary energy demand
PJ/A 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
table 10.14: canada: heat supply Total 11,859 11,236 10,558 9,089 7,758 6,152
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Fossil 8,956 8,534 7,754 5,647 3,609 1,563
PJ/A Hard coal 667 563 544 446 386 79
District heating plants 2 21 44 120 197 184 Lignite 703 402 189 26 0 0
Fossil fuels 0 0 0 0 0 0 Natural gas 3,400 3,804 3,758 2,829 1,722 435
Biomass 2 19 37 96 158 138 Crude oil 4,185 3,765 3,263 2,347 1,501 1,049
Solar collectors 0 1 3 8 14 17
Geothermal 0 1 4 16 26 29 Nuclear 1,020 524 131 0 0 0
Renewables 1,883 2,178 2,673 3,442 4,149 4,589
Heat from CHP 35 39 64 109 180 293 Hydro 1,326 1,408 1,512 1,602 1,692 1,703
APPENDIX - CANADA
table 10.15: canada: co 2 emissions Industry 2,398 2,394 2,268 1,849 1,417 876
Electricity 730 742 709 602 485 323
MILL t/a 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 RES electricity 434 477 506 469 409 311
District heat 30 38 47 67 105 167
Condensation power plants 141 120 100 76 54 0 RES district heat 2 21 34 59 99 161
Coal 42 35 34 31 28 0 Coal 77 65 63 14 0 0
Lignite 78 45 21 3 0 0 Oil products 259 194 129 47 3 1
Gas 14 38 45 42 27 0 Gas 1,001 1,055 984 710 401 89
Oil 7 2 0 0 0 0 Solar 0 46 87 185 175 114
Diesel 1 0 0 0 0 0 Biomass and waste 300 250 236 189 136 65
Geothermal 0 4 13 37 93 95
Combined heat & power production 7 6 8 10 10 8 Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 21 21
Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 RES share Industry 30.7% 33.3% 38.6% 50.7% 65.5% 87.5%
Lignite 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gas 6 6 8 10 10 8 Other Sectors 2,794 2,781 2,744 2,576 2,399 2,147
Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity 1,085 1,123 1,120 1,102 1,079 1,036
CO2 emissions electricity RES electricity 644 722 799 857 910 997
& steam generation 148 126 108 85 64 8 District heat 6 22 61 162 273 309
Coal 42 35 34 31 28 0 RES district heat 0 12 43 144 258 298
Lignite 78 45 21 3 0 0 Coal 1 0 0 0 0 0
Gas 20 44 53 51 36 8 Oil products 548 405 244 96 46 35
Oil & diesel 8 2 0 0 0 0 Gas 1,075 1,086 1,065 748 427 9
Solar 0 16 59 109 122 142
CO2 emissions by sector 547 503 434 290 163 29 Biomass and waste 78 107 141 210 248 310
% of 1990 emissions 120% 110% 95% 64% 36% 6% Geothermal 0 22 55 150 202 306
Industry 82 79 71 47 27 8 RES share Other Sectors 25.9% 31.6% 40.0% 57.1% 72.6% 95.6%
Other sectors 101 92 79 50 29 5
Transport 159 157 135 88 39 7 Total RES 1,494 1,780 2,233 2,981 3,592 3,851
Electricity & steam generation 148 125 106 81 58 3 RES share 19.6% 23.4% 30.3% 46.1% 65.1% 90.0%
District heating 56 51 43 23 10 6
Population (Mill.) 32.9 35 37 40 42 44 Non energy use 969 938 996 1,026 1,055 1,084
CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita) 16.6 14.2 11.7 7.2 3.8 0.7 Oil 812 786 835 860 884 909
Gas 140 135 144 148 152 157
118 Coal 17 16 17 18 18 19
canada: total new investment by technology
table 10.19: canada: total investment
MILLION $ 2007-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 2007-2050 2007-2050
AVERAGE
PER YEAR
Reference scenario
Conventional (fossil & nuclear) 18,699 27,333 30,258 89,865 2,090
Renewables 37,914 69,046 73,211 227,168 5,283
Biomass 1,211 4,695 2,990 11,804 275
Hydro 29,629 49,744 53,339 155,720 3,621
Wind 6,441 13,472 15,020 54,915 1,277
PV 599 1,111 1,827 4,539 106
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0
Solar thermal power plants 0 0 0 128 3
Ocean energy 34 23 34 62 1
Energy [R]evolution
Conventional (fossil & nuclear) 18,699 25,222 10,561 55,208 1,284
Renewables 37,914 90,011 84,395 288,625 6,712
Biomass 1,211 9,836 4,942 29,236 680
Hydro 29,629 53,818 50,378 164,930 3,836
Wind 6,441 8,058 16,151 47,808 1,112
PV 599 6,559 3,730 12,012 279
Geothermal 0 132 818 3,517 82
Solar thermal power plants 0 0 0 62 1
Ocean energy 34 11,608 8,375 31,059 722
Advanced Energy [R]evolution
Conventional (fossil & nuclear) 18,699 16,809 10,218 48,133 1,119
Renewables 37,914 125,162 107,594 351,077 8,165
Biomass 1,211 5,548 4,817 21,675 504
Hydro 29,629 75,190 62,806 181,453 4,220
Wind 6,441 20,315 20,249 71,714 1,668
PV 599 6,559 3,730 12,012 279
Geothermal 0 5,943 4,837 23,149 538
Solar thermal power plants 0 0 0 55 1
Ocean energy 34 11,608 11,156 41,019 954
10
APPENDIX - CANADA
y g re n e
noitulove]r[
Greenpeace is a global organisation that uses non-violent direct action to tackle european renewable energy council - [EREC]
the most crucial threats to our planet’s biodiversity and environment. Created in April 2000, the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) is
Greenpeace is a non-profit organisation, present in 40 countries across Europe, the umbrella organisation of the European renewable energy industry, trade
the Americas, Africa, Asia and the Pacific. It speaks for 2.8 million supporters and research associations active in the sectors of bioenergy, geothermal, ocean,
worldwide, and inspires many millions more to take action every day. To small hydro power, solar electricity, solar thermal and wind energy. EREC thus
maintain its independence, Greenpeace does not accept donations from represents the European renewable energy industry with an annual turnover of
governments or corporations but relies on contributions from individual €70 billion and employing 550,000 people.
supporters and foundation grants.
EREC is composed of the following non-profit associations and federations:
Greenpeace has been campaigning against environmental degradation since AEBIOM (European Biomass Association); EGEC (European Geothermal
1971 when a small boat of volunteers and journalists sailed into Amchitka, an Energy Council); EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association); ESHA
area west of Alaska, where the US Government was conducting underground (European Small Hydro power Association); ESTIF (European Solar Thermal
nuclear tests. This tradition of ‘bearing witness’ in a non-violent manner continues Industry Federation); EUBIA (European Biomass Industry Association);
today, and ships are an important part of all its campaign work. EWEA (European Wind Energy Association); EUREC Agency (European
Greenpeace Canada Association of Renewable Energy Research Centers); EREF (European
33 Cecil Street, Toronto Renewable Energies Federation); EU-OEA (European Ocean Energy
Ontario, Canada M5T 1N1 t +416 597 8408 Association); ESTELA (European Solar Thermal Electricity Association).
© GREENPEACE/NICK COBBING
454, avenue Laurier Est, 3e étage, Montréal EREC European Renewable Energy Council
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1726 Commercial Drive, Vancouver B-1040 Brussels, Belgium
British Columbia, Canada V5N 4A3 t +604 253 7701 t +32 2 546 1933 f+32 2 546 1934
6238 – 104 Street NW, Edmonton
erec@erec.org www.erec.org
Alberta, Canada T6H 2K9 t +780 430 9202
www.greenpeace.ca
image ICE MELTING ON A BERG ON THE GREENLANDIC COAST. GREENPEACE AND AN INDEPENDENT NASA-FUNDED SCIENTIST COMPLETED MEASUREMENTS OF MELT LAKES
ON THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET THAT SHOW ITS VULNERABILITY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. front cover images WIND TURBINE SPINNING AROUND GENERATING POWER,ST
LEON, 150 KM SOUTH WEST OF WINNIPEG, MANITOBA © RICHARD GILLARD / ISTOCK © PGIAM / ISTOCK © BRENDAN HUNTER / ISTOCK.