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currency to float ON THE PASSING OF A
within a larger RENAISSANCE MAN: We note sadly
range than it the passing over the weekend of one of the
has in the past. last of the real Renaissance men of our age
We must and a close friend and mentor of ours here
at TGL: Mr. Morton Swinsky of New York.
remember that
Mort led the capital markets group at Fuji
this is not a free Securities for many years and knew more
float; this is far about the bond market than almost
from a free float. anyone else we’ve met over our several
Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010 It is, for all decades in the business. More
importantly, Mort was intimately involved
Dennis Gartman: Editor/Publisher intents, rather
with the art scene in New York and his
Phone 757‐238‐9346 Fax 757‐238‐9546 like the office was always filled with avante garde
Email dennis@thegartmanletter.com new art that captured our interest on
“crawling pegs”
London Sales: Donald Berman, Alberdon International every visit. But it was on Broadway that
of years past in
Phone: 011 44(0) 79 8622 1110 Mort made his mark for he produced or co‐
Europe, with the
produced a huge number of plays and
People’s Bank musicals, including The Crucible;
of China Metamorphosis; The Music Man; Talk
allowing the Radio; Glengarry Glen Ross; Annie Get
Your Gun; The Addams Family and many,
currency to rise,
many others. Here was a great man; a
but to do so Renaissance Man; a man of letters in the
within a well world of finance. Broadway and Wall
maintained Street both have lost a giant.
APPLE “REVERSES”
corridor and with
TO THE DOWNSIDE!
the Bank intent upon keeping the currency from rising
too sharply or from falling too steeply. This is but
another step in al long passage toward an eventual
OVERNIGHT NEWS: free float and we would do well to understand that fact.
It will be years perhaps before the Renminbi is freely
THE RENMINBI/DOLLAR PEG DIED floating on the spot and forward forex markets, but that
is the goal. It will be achieved when it serves China’s
OVER THE WEEKEND, but confusion still
best interests to do so and only when it does… not a
reigns over the importance of the decision to allow the
moment before.
AugWTI down 168 78.02-07 Finally, is it not interesting to note that the Libya is
SepWTI down 173 78.89-94
already all but inviting BP to come there to drill for
OctWTI down 174 79.62-67
NovWTI down 175 80.27-32 crude oil if it is unwelcome in the US and the Gulf of
DecWTI down 176 80.83-88 Mexico. President’s Obama’s decision to ban all
Jan WTI down 174 81.23-28
FebWTI down 173 81.60-65 drilling for six months is a truly stupid idea, and nations
OPEC Basket $75.24 06/17 are already lining up to invite BP and others to bring
Henry Hub Nat-gas $4.68 their rigs and the men and materiel abroad instead. To
think that BP, Chevron, Transocean, Cameron et al will
Finally, just to be filed somewhere for future reference
not heed this siren song is naïve, for of course they
and to have the ammunition at the ready when the
shall.
great unwashed and/or those who represent them in
Congress take up the question improperly, we note
EQUITY PRICES ARE AGAIN A BIT
that the US is for all intents already no longer
dependent upon the Middle East for its crude oil FIRMER, but we are fearful of what took place
supplies. According to the US Energy Information yesterday here in the US for although the Dow did not
Administration, last year the following nations supplied do so, many of the other broad market indices forged
the US with the vast preponderance of its imported “reversals” to the downside and many of the most
crude oil: important individual equities did the same. We note
therefore the chart of Apple’s shares yesterday on the
NASDAQ at the upper left of p.1 this morning. Apple
has been the clear leader to the upside during this last
bull run, and yesterday, having opened on a gap to Here in the US, with Congressional elections looming
new all time highs, and having traded firmly most of the only a few months into the future, the rising power on
day, it collapsed in late trading, closing lower upon the the part of the Tea Partiers is worrisome to us, for
day and closing below the previous day’s lows. This although we admire the “libertarian” tactics of most of
was a classic…a text-book… “reversal” and it should those aligned with this grass roots political movement
be respected. Further, as we are wont to say, as in we do fear the urgency to cut spending and raise taxes
battle, so too in investing: when the “Generals” fall, the in order to “pay down the deficit.” Like Warren
lesser officers and soldiers are in jeopardy as Christopher of years passed, we’d urge caution.
confusion begins to reign.
Finally, it is reported that the White House Budget
In Europe, bank shares are down quite sharply Director, Mr. Orszag, will be tendering his resignation
following the rather weak showing on the part of the in the not-too-distant future, making him the first
Renminbi and on the news that Fitch has downgraded reasonably high ranking official within the
BNP Paribas. The market, reasonably, fears that if Administration to stand down. Although it is possible
BNP Paribas can be downgraded then others are soon that he is stepping down to protest the fact that he
to follow. pushed to have all of the funds given to Freddie Mac
and Fannie Mae put on the federal budget and he was
Dow Indus down 9 10,442
over-ruled, we suspect is it is simply that Mr. Orszag is
CanS&P/TSE up 8 11,936
FTSE up 48 5,299 young and has better and higher paying job prospects
CAC up 49 3,736 awaiting elsewhere.
DAX up 76 6,293
NIKKEI down 125 10,112
HangSeng up 65 20,928 GENERAL COMMENTS
AusSP/AX down 51 4,655 ON THE CAPITAL MARKETS
Shanghai up 5 2,592
Brazil up 391 64,829
TGL INDEX up 0.2% 7,597 . HOW GLOOMY IS HOUSING
REALLY?.... VERY! Our old friend Randall
ON THE POLITICAL FRONT the
Forsyth wrote a very interesting article for Up and
presentation of the UK budget this morning is perhaps
Down Wall Street recently that detailed just how
the most important political development, and as noted
different the housing market is this time compared to
above it is fascinating to us that even on the Left the
past periods. Home building is a business that we are
urge to cut spending and to raise taxes is palpable.
certainly glad we are not in for we see little if any future
We are very, very concerned about this change in
in it for years to come. As Randall noted, the National
sentiment… about this urgency to cut deficits… about
Association of Home Builder’s confidence figures
this even greater urgency to raise taxes, for in the
released recently plunged to 17 in May from an already
doing of this… in the urgency to balance budgets…
horrid 22 in April, and that is very near to its lows made
comes greater economic weakness, not economic
at the depths of the recession last year. Too, the
strength. We do indeed understand the need to bring
Mortgage Banker’s Association reported that
the deficits on the G-20 under control, but we much rd
applications for mortgages fell by 1/3 since the
prefer bringing them under control when the economy
expiration of the tax credits at the end of April and
everywhere is on the very clear mend, rather than at a
those applications are now to their lowest levels since
time when economic growth is tenuous in nature. It is
’97. Further, housing starts remain in the 550-650
one thing to raise taxes; it is another to cut spending; it
thousand annualised rate that in the past has signaled
is entirely something else…and materially
recessionary lows. This time they are not bouncing, nor
deflationary… to attempt to do both, laudable though it
are the likely to bounce.
might seem.
Moving out even further, housing prices in Boston are
Moving on, we note that more than 75 million American now back to the levels prevailing in the autumn of ’03!
households own the homes they live in and of those 75 In Boston prices are down 15% from their peak. Just a
million nearly 12 million owe more than their homes are bit more than 13% of the mortgagees are underwater
worth, according to Moody's Economy.com. That’s on their mortgages, but prices only need to fall 9% to
16% of the nation’s home owning families! To put that restore affordability.
in perspective, back in ’06 only 4% of those owning a
The topper, however, is San Diego: Beautiful; healthy;
home were “under-water” on their mortgages and as of
vibrant San Diego has seen its average housing price
’09 “only” 6% were.
fall to levels back in the summer of ’03; prices are
For those who’d bought their homes in the past five down 32% from their peak; a stunning 51% of those
years things are even worse, for they bought at or just with mortgages taken out in the past five years are
after the peak for prices. They’ve never likely seen the underwater and prices have to fall another 13% before
“light of day” on their mortgages since and so it historical affordability can be re-established. We have
appears that fully 1 of 3 mortgagees who bought within our doubts as to whether San Diegans who’ve bought
the past five years are underwater. Most homeowners, a home in the past five years and who have a
we are told, still have some equity in their homes, but mortgage on that home will ever be made whole again,
it is failing quickly. or made whole in our lifetime.