2010 International Conference on Electrical and Control Engineering
Optimal Maintenance Decision of Power
Transformers
Hong-xia Ji,Ji-quan Zhang, Zhen-yong Liu, Gui-shu Liang and Hong-shan Zhao
North China Electric Power University
Baoding, CHINA
e-mail : zhaohshcn@126.com
Abstract—This paper introduced the concept of Proportional
Hazards Model (PHM), it took advantage of the Weibull PHM to
establish the failure rate model of transformer maintenance
based on condition monitoring information. The failure rate
threshold through the maximum availability method was
determined, and then the maintenance decision model for the
electric transformer was established. Finally, we used a simple
case, i.e. an analysis of gases in transformer oil, to illustrate the
maintenance decision-making process based on PHM, and to
verify the feasibility of this model for the transformer repair.
Keywords-PHM, CBM, Maintenance decision, Transformer
I. INTRODUCTION
At present, most of the electric power system equipment
maintenance such as transformers, circuit breakers etc. have
adopted the traditional time-based maintenance (TBM). This
maintenance mode has some deficiencies, such as the frequent
temporary maintenance, insufficient maintenance, excess
maintenance and so on, and makes the electric power utilities
pay a great deal of cost. Along with the technology advances
and changes on concept of maintenance, how to make
reasonable arrangements to electrical equipment maintenance,
to reduce maintenance costs, and to ensure that power system
is more reliable in operation, have been attracting the interests
of a great number of academic and industrial researchers [1].
Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) is an advanced
maintenance policy developed in recent years. The CBM is
mainly based on the condition information obtained from
equipments, it uses those information by the data analysis and
diagnostic techniques to forecast the residual life of
equipments or failure rate, then makes decisions to equipment
maintenance by optimized their reliability index, namely
whether the equipment need prevention maintenance, if
needed, when the equipment should be repaired. This idea has
been widely accepted in the field of maintenance, the current
urgent problem needed to solve is how to use the condition
information in the process of the scientific decision-making
for device maintenance.
The initial CBM decision-making depends on the measure
and test of condition signal of devices. When the monitored
value exceeds the threshold or the trend occurs to change, the
maintenance decision should be timely decided according to
pre-set threshold value. This maintenance policy is easy and
simple, but for a system with multiple state variables tested it
978-0-7695-4031-3/10 $26.00 © 2010 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/iCECE.2010.960
is difficult to reflect the combined effect on a variety of
factors. Therefore, the key of CBM decision-making is to
establish a precise and reasonable functional relation between
their health levels and their condition parameters. Presently a
great deal of research findings have been made on this issue
by researchers, such as the Kalman filter model, Markov
model, information fusion and artificial intelligence etc. but
usage of these methods in maintenance optimization decision
making is not so good.
The PHM model can effectively combine the condition
information with the life data and historical data of
equipments to predict of failure rate of system (device).
Preventive maintenance decision will be determined according
to the objective of cost, such as minimum cost or maximum
availability etc.[2]. The PHM model can consider both the
condition information and the life data, and reflect the real
current state of the device more scientific and accurate.
In this paper, the first section and second section respectively
introduce the basic theory of PHM in detail and the
maintenance decision-making process based on PHM, and
then we take the oil gas analysis data of the transformer in a
distribution network as an example to analyze the application
of Weibull PHM in the process of maintenance decision.
Finally, some conclusions are summed up in the paper.
II. PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL
A. PHM
The Proportional Hazards Model is a modeling method of a
system (equipment) failure model based on condition
monitoring information and historical data etc. which is
proposed by D.R. Cox in the 1970s, it was first applied to
medical research, and now it have been applied in many areas
of industry equipment maintenance, since this model can
consider both the life of equipment and condition monitoring
information when calculating failure rate [3].
The mathematical expression of PHM is as follows,
γ z ( t ) + γ 2 z2 (t ) +...+ γ p z p (t )
h (t ) = h0 ( t ) ⋅ e 1 1 （1）
Where, h(t ) is the failure rate under condition that
z1 (t ), z2 (t )," , z p (t ) are known at the given time t . Each item
z i (t ) refers to a covariate or explanatory variable which
expresses a condition monitoring data in the monitoring
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moment t . zi (t ) and its corresponding covariate parameter III. MODEL OF MAINTENANCE DECISION
γ i are used to denote the effect on the risk rate of failure. If A. Determination of the threshold of failure rate
γ i = 0 , zi (t ) denotes no effect to failure rate. h0 (t ) is the After we have established the Weibull PHM for
β t β −1
maintenance devices, we need make the corresponding
baseline hazard rate function, if h0 (t ) = η (η ) that is the maintenance decision according to different maintenance
requirements. Usually the maintenance strategy is a minimum
Weibull distribution, and β , η is respectively the shape
cost or a maximum availability within a certain period of time.
parameter and scale parameter of Weibull distribution. In the following we take advantage of the maximum
We call above PHM as the Weibull PHM, its expression availability method to introduce the process of the
shows as follows, establishment of a maintenance decision model. Availability
β γ 1 z1 (t ) +γ 2 z2 (t ) +...+γ p z p (t )
h(t ) = η (ηt ) β −1 ⋅ e （2） is a performance criterion for repairable systems that accounts
for both the reliability and maintainability properties of a
B. Parameters estimation of PHM component or system. It is defined as a percentage measure of
the degree to which machinery and equipment is in an
There are (p +2) parameters unknown in the PHM model operable and committable state at the point in time when it is
except z i (t ) and t are known. For obtaining these parameters, needed. This definition includes operable and committable
we have to rely on parameter estimation method to get their factors that are contributed to the equipment itself, the process
approximation. The commonly used estimation method is the being performed, and the surrounding facilities and operations.
maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE). The general t
MTTF t p − tb ∫0p h ( t ) dt
steps of the MLE method are as follows: 1) construct the A(t)= = （5 ）
likelihood function; 2) take logarithm to both sides of the MTTF + MTTR t p + ta
likelihood function and sort out the formula; 3) equate the where, MTTF is the working hours, that is, the average use of
partial derivative of parameters unknown and get the equation time before failure; MTTR is the average repair time; time
set; 4) solute the equation set. parameters t p ， ta ， tb respectively express as the preventive
Construct the maximum likelihood function of the Weibull
PHM, we can obtain: maintenance intervals, preventive maintenance time, repair
β −1
time after a fault.
⎧⎪ q β ⎛ t ⎞ ⎡ p ⎤ ⎫⎪
L( β ,η , γ ) = ⎨ ∏ ⎜ i ⎟ ⋅ exp ⎢ ∑ γ k Z k (ti ) ⎥ ⎬ To get the best availability, we usually adopt the method to
⎪⎩i =1 η ⎝ η ⎠ ⎣ k =1 ⎦ ⎪⎭ seek limit on the average availability, namely,
⎧ n A t = lim ∫0T A(t )dt （6 ）
⎪ ⎡ t β ⎛ s ⎞ β −1 ⎡ p ⎤ ⎤ ⎫⎪ t →∞
× ⎨ ∏ exp ⎢ − ∫0j ⎜ ⎟ exp ⎢ ∑ γ k Z k (s) ⎥ ds ⎥ ⎬ （3）
⎪⎩ j =1 ⎢ η ⎝η ⎠ ⎣ k =1 ⎦ ⎥⎦ ⎪⎭ The integration of the formula above is difficult to obtain
⎣
directly, we usually use numerical calculation method to get
Taking logarithm to both sides of above formula, we can get
the limit of availability, the time corresponds to the maximum
its log-likelihood function,
limit availability is the preventive maintenance interval T,
⎛β ⎞ q t q p
shown in Fig.1.
ln L ( β ,η , γ ) = q ln ⎜ ⎟ + ( β − 1) ∑ ln( i ) + ∑ ∑ γ k Z k (ti )
⎝η ⎠ i =1 η i =1 k =1
β −1
n t β⎛s⎞ ⎡ p ⎤
− ∑ ∫0j exp ⎢ ∑ γ k Z k ( s ) ⎥ ds
⎜ ⎟ （4）
j =1 η ⎝η ⎠⎣ k =1 ⎦
where, n is the total number of samples, q is the number of
failure items, p is the dimension of the covariates, γ is the
coefficient to covariate, γ = [γ 1, γ 2 ,...γ p ] .
In order to estimate the parameter of equ.(4), we calculate
the partial derivative of β ， η and γ to its equation
respectively, and let their partial derivatives equal to zero, so
we can get ( p +2) dimensional nonlinear equations.
After obtaining the condition data z i (t ) and lifetime data t ,
we can use Newton-Raphson method or other algorithms to Fig.1 Curve of availability
calculate the value of β ,η , γ , hence we can get the failure rate Taking advantage of the optimal time T obtained from
function h(t ) . above process，we can find a set of failure time and covariate
data closest to T from the failure data known. In view of the
life data and monitoring data obtained at the optimal time T
and parameters estimation above, we can work out threshold
value of the failure rate:

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 β γ z (T )+γ 2 z2 (T )+...+γ p zp (T ) IV. CASE STUDY
h* = η (ηT )β −1 ⋅ e 1 1 （7 ）
Electrical transformer is a very important infrastructure in
power systems, and its state of health is affected by many
B. Maintenance Decision Model factors, such as short-circuit fault, winding fault, insulation
Under the condition of that the failure rate threshold h* is breakdown and so on. In this paper we only choose the state
known, if at any time we find that the failure rate of equipment data of the gas in transformer oil as an example to simply
is greater than or equal to this threshold, these equipments explain application of the PHM in maintenance decision-
should be carried out repairs or maintenance immediately. The making, but the practical application will be more
maintenance principle is calculated by the following formula complicated. Transformers usually use oil-paper insulation
β γ 1 z1 ( t ) + γ 2 z 2 ( t ) + ...+ γ p z p ( t ) or oil and board composition insulation, when there being an
h (t ) = η ( ηt ) β −1 ⋅ e ≥ h * （8） internal overheat fault, discharge failure or insulation
By means of calculating the logarithm of both sides of breakdown and aging factors ， it will produce a variety of
formula (8), we can get the optimal maintenance rule, gases, and different types of gases reflect different types of
faults. According to this principle we take a distribution
η β h∗
γ 1 z1 ( t ) + γ 2 z 2 ( t ) + ... ≥ ln( ) − ( β − 1) ln t （9 ） network of transformers record data as an example to illustrate
β
the maintenance decision making based on the Weibull PHM.
Let There are eight transformers, five of them were fault and three
η β h∗ of them were censored. The content of gases dissolved in oil is
f ( t ) = ln () − ( β − 1) ln t （10）
β monitored while their working. Some of the data are as
According to the parameter estimation results above, we follows,
substitute the value of parameter estimation into formula (10)
TABLE I
then an expression of f (t ) can be got, which can be described TRANSFORMER LIFE DATA
by a curve shown in Figure 2. NO. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Life
133 115 98 144 183 170 157 193 204 235 214
time

TABLE II
MONITORING INFORMATION OF THE 4TH TANSFORMER

Total
Accumulated Hydrogen Monitor
No. hydrocarbon
life Interval
(µL/L) (µL/L)
1 17 15.4 14.3 17
2 29 16.5 16.4 12
3 41 17.5 18.7 13
4 58 19.2 20.6 17
5 77 21.6 22.1 19
6 98 23.7 24.3 21
7 112 25.4 26.7 17
Fig.2 The maintenance decision graph
8 127 42.3 44.5 15
During the equipment’s operation, the value of monitor 9 135 77.5 78.3 8
items z1 (t ), z2 (t )," , z p (t ) can be obtained at any moment of 10 142 153.7 152.2 7
monitoring, according to the estimated results, we define a
On the basis of life data and monitoring data that are
prognostic index z ( t ) = γ 1 z1 ( t ) + γ 2 z 2 ( t ) + ... z p ( t ) , delineate the known, we write a program in MATLAB platform for the
point ( t , z ( t )) in the figure, if this point is above the curve the analysis of the data, PHM model can be obtained:
β
maintenance measures should be taken immediately, if it is h ( t ) = η ( ηt ) β − 1 ⋅ e γ 1 z 1 ( t ) + γ 2 z 2 ( t ) （11）
under the curve that means it is in normal operation, if it is on
the curve or in the critical area, you should closely observe the Because there are only two covariates i.e. the total
performance indicators, take the necessary measures according hydrocarbon and hydrogen, then γ is a two-dimensional
to the actual situation, or take maintenance measures in the vector. By numerical calculation, the estimating values of
next monitoring time. four parameters are as follows, Shape parameter β = 1.9463,
scale parameter η = 162980, hydrocarbon gases covariate
coefficient γ 1 =0.0945, hydrogen covariate coefficient γ 2 =

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0.0958. According to Section Ⅱ, we use the maximum system force people to constantly search for more economical
availability method to calculate the failure rate threshold h ,
* and more reliable methods. CBM has been researched and
applied more and more widely on the basis of its superior
h * = 3.8839 × 10−4 , as to formula (10) it can be characteristics. This paper describes the concept of PHM in
h*η β detail, uses the Weibull PHM failure model to illustrate the
f (t ) = ln( ) − ( β − 1) ln t
β maintenance decision-making process in the condition based
3.8839 ×10−4 ×1629801.9463 maintenance, illustrates the maintenance decision-making in
) − (1.9463 − 1) ln t （12）
= ln(
1.9463 power transformer applications by choosing some
So we can plot the blue failure rate threshold curve, shown in transformers monitoring data as an example. Finally, we
Fig.3 and fig.4. verify the feasibility of Weibull PHM by analysis of gases in
Two graphs of typical optimal policies are included in Fig.3 transformer oil.
and Fig.4.The policy depends on working age (the horizontal
axis) and the contribution of the covariate measures to the VI. REFERENCES
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even before the optimal hazard level has been exceeded. The theory and method”. Beijing: Aviation Industry Press, 2008, pp 90
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changed over time. The recommended action for the [4] Jardine A K S, Anderson P M, Mann D S. “Application of the weibull
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[5] MAO Shi-song, TANG Yin-cai, WANG Ling-ling. “Statistical Theory
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[6] ZHANG Xiu-bin, WANG Guang-wei, GUO Bo. “Decision of Condition
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Composite Coveriate Z=4.9185

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hazards models”, INFOR, Vol.30, no.3,1991 pp 172-83
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6

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Working Age=167[m]
z=0.0945*z1+0.0958*z2
Fig.3 Optimal decision chart for a transformer still in good condition
Replacement Decision
15
Composite Coveriate Z=10.9135

Replacement immediately
12

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Working Age=265[m]
z=0.0945*z1+0.0958*z2
Fig.4 Optimal decision chart for a transformer that had failed

V. CONCLUSION
The problems existed in current equipment maintenance

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