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Commodity Insights
wilhelmsen.com 2017 Edition
Foreword Jason Hawkins
Sales Director Ships Agency, East Region
This report summarizes our reflections on the performance of the LNG industry over the 2016-2017 period
and an analysis of how the LNG market will evolve up to 2030. Coming from a Ships Agency perspective, we
aimed to capture a holistic view of the LNG industry's upstream to downstream supply chain by highlighting
the movements of key players in various locations, LNG projects, trade routes and load/discharge port calls.
In addition, with the rise of emerging markets in the East, our report provides further insight into Australia,
Japan and Korea whom we consider to be some of the key Eastern players in the LNG market.
"2016-2017 saw the largest injection of new LNG into the market in
history. As we look beyond 2018 where oversupply will still dominate,
it will be a playing field, where only the very strongest survive."
Contents
LNG Global Overview 1
Global outlook 2017-2030
LNG contracts
Upcoming LNG projects
Trending topic: Panama Canal
LNG trade routes 2016 – 2017
Global gas trade movement pipeline overview
Australia LNG exports review and forecast 2012 – 2020
Wilhelmsen 20
Ships Agency Global LNG Footprint
Specialised Tanker Safety Training
01
The 8.8% jump represents the largest year-on-year growth since the 10.2% 5.0%
2011 Fukushima disaster. Future net annual demand growth is 258MMtpa
12.1%
479MMtpa
4.4%
expected to follow a seven-year cycle. By 2030, world LNG demand 7.2%
is projected to reach 479MMtpa, rising at a compound annual 13.0% 8.9% 10.2%
2.3%
6.3%
growth rate of 4.5%. 6.5% 5.8% 13.4%
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
gas, structural changes in power markets, and concerns over
nuclear. LNG supply is set for a more striking rise and production Source: NGW
capacity will reach 400MMtpa by 2020 as the U.S. and Australia
Who will sink or swim?
complete export terminals currently under construction. Oversupply
Historically, a large portion of LNG volumes have been traded under long-term, fixed
continues to look inevitable over the next several years, despite
destination contracts. Over the past decade, a growing number of cargoes have been
strong demand growth, but won’t be as serious as previously
sold under shorter contracts or on the spot market.
expected.
This “non long-term” LNG trade has been made possible by the proliferation of
Longer-term (2020-30) flexible-destination contracts and an emergence of portfolio players and traders.
Demand will continue to grow and reach 479MMtpa by 2030 as
Japanese buyers have been the first (many more to come) who have now pushed back
large opportunities in new markets materialize. These include the
and will not accept new contracts for long-term purchase of LNG that contain clauses
development of new power markets, greater use of gas in
that restrict where the gas can be sold.
renewables integration, and the opportunity to use gas as a
replacement fuel as coal and nuclear plants retire. Supply will peak By the first half of the 2020s, LNG industry will be facing a
in 2020, and no new projects are expected on line during 2020-24.
As a result, the global LNG market will become supply-tight around very different market from the one we are in today. Growth
2023-24 and face a potential supply shortage from 2025. and survival will come from a liquid, flexible and more
transparent spot market, as competition not seen ever
before comes into play.
02
LNG Contracts
LNG contracts signed each year by tenure Leading LNG sellers’ shares in total contract sales
In the first half of 2017, LNG contract sales declined
to 5.7MMt Other Portfolio Qatar
This is a new record low over the last eight years. This amounts to United States Australia
MMtpa MMtpa
less than half of the volumes sold over the same period in 2016, >20 years
which is indicating a very challenging market ahead for LNG 60 11-20 years 100%
producers and sellers. 5-10 years
50 1-4 years 80%
Interests in short-term contracts (1-5 years) has
diminished considerably 40
60%
Most buyers expect abundant availability of cheaper spot LNG
30
cargos over the next few years due to forth coming oversupply and
then continued softening of oil prices. 40%
20
16
12
10
11
13
14
15
17
10
11
12
13
14
15
17
16
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
combine them together to sell to end-users. This new frontier of
1H
1H
purchasing LNG by way of optimizing their LNG supply portfolios, is Source: NGW
MMtpa
17
18
19
20
20
20
20
20
20 projects totaling 84.7MMTPA scheduled to start Source: NGW
in 2018-20
In addition, there are a further 20 projects totaling 84.7MMTPA Our Analysis
that are scheduled to start operation in the 2018-20 period. Global liquefaction capacity has grown to 339.7 MTPA as from the start of 2017, an
Of these, 45.9MMTPA will be from the U.S., 17MMTPA from increase of approximately 35 MTPA relative to end-2015.
Australia, 16.5MMTPA from Russia and 5.3MMTPA from
Some project delays and outages during 2016 limited the effect of the anticipated
Malaysia and Indonesia.
imbalance in the LNG market. Only two projects, totalling 6.3 MTPA, reached a final
Australia will complete the construction of four remaining investment decision in 2016.
trains by Q3 2018. Under-construction capacity totalled 114.6 MTPA as of January 2017. Projects are
Russia’s Novatek is on track to see the first train of the Yamal focused primarily in Australia & the U.S, and on several floating LNG (FLNG) developments,
LNG project come online in early 2018. the first of which come online in early 2017.
By the end of 2018, the shift will move across to the United With more than 55 MTPA of capacity online and a furthermore 30 MTPA expected online
States LNG projects with Freeport LNG and Kinder Morgan’s over the next two years, Australia is expected to become the largest liquefaction capacity
Elba Island Phase I. Following these will be Sempra Energy’s holder by mid 2018.
Cameron LNG and Cheniere’ s Corpus Christi. North America accounts for the majority of new liquefaction project proposals, where 664
Looking further afield the only other committed projects to MTPA of capacity has been earmarked in the US and Canada.
come on stream will be from Indonesia and Malaysia. By The anticipated LNG oversupply and structural shifts in some buyers’ demand
early 2020, BP’s Tangguh train 3 is likely to be brought requirements have continued to slow the long-term contracting activity that is
online, while Petronas will commission its second floating generally required to finance new projects, only the most cost-effective projects will
project Rotan FLNG. ever see daylight during this period.
04
Trending Topic:
Panama Canal
The single slot dilemma
Currently all LNG transits are limited to daylight hours, with only a
single slot available per day. The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is
working with LNG shippers towards doubling the capacity set
aside for LNG vessels by Q3 2018.
Over 171 LNG carriers have so far transited the Panama Canal, or
some 8.6% of transits through the Neopanamax locks.
These tolls apply to the canal’s Panamax and Neopanamax locks. Our Analysis
The Panama Canal Authority are going to work with US LNG shippers over the next 12
months, to enable two LNG daylight-only transits per day instead of only one currently in play.
An area where pressure can be applied to avoid all transit slots being taken up or pre-blocked
is for the authority to increase the cancellation fee which is currently only $35,000.
The major LNG players who wish to squeeze the market (as they do today) look at this current
cancellation fees as an insignificant cost, since the existing fee is a drop in the ocean
(basically 50% of the current daily operating rate).
If LNG Shippers in the States push for the canal authority to increase the cancellation
Want an estimate on your Panama Canal toll fees to the range of $170K (which is approx. 50% of the ballast transit cost of the canal),
fees? Calculate your tolls instantly here: then will we likely start seeing a change in the slots being taken up.
http://www.wilhelmsen.com/tollcalculators/panama-
toll-calculator/
05
Global LNG Trade Routes 1 Shortest LNG voyage length in 2015: 111 nm (Algeria to Spain)
Trade Flows (2016-2017) 2 Longest LNG voyage length in 2015: 13,809 nm (Trinidad to Japan)
Average LNG voyage length in 2015: 7,640 nm
Norway
United Kingdom
Canada Lithuania Russia
Netherlands
Poland
Belgium 3 China
France
2
Spain Italy Greece Japan
Portugal
1 Turkey 4
United States
South Korea
LNG Traders Israel
Jordan Pakistan
Kuwait
Algeria UAE
Importer Mexcio Egypt Qatar Taiwan
Dominican Republic
Puerto Rico India
Exporter Jamaica Thailand
Trinidad Oman
Nigeria
Both
Colombia Brunei
Malaysia Singapore
Equatorial Guinea Papua New Guinea
LNG Flow (MT)
Brazil Angola Indonesia
Peru
0.01-1.0
1.1-2.0 Australia
Chile
3.0-5.0
Argentina
5.1-8.0
>8.1
Shortest /
longest route
143.0
Mexcio
38.4 20.0
8.8
Asia Pacific
Africa
10.4
8.3
5.8
Created by Wilhelmsen | Ships agency Sources: CISStat, FGE MENAgas service, IHS
07
Ichthys LNG
Darwin LNG
Prelude LNG
Million MT
Forecast
90 Other
0.1 Mt
80
Australia
70
60
23.2 Mt
Pluto LNG
50
Australia and Asia market North West Shelf
40
Australia’s proximity to the Asian market still Wheatstone LNG
places it ahead of the curve with reliability Gorgon LNG
30 and continuity of supply, which is a critical Santos GLNG Project
factor in the market.
20 Queensland Curtis LNG
As Australia’s mature markets begin to settle Australia Pacific LNG
10 in for a period of decelerating as contracts
come into play, new markets are emerging LNG plant - operating Coal seam gas
0
with Bangladesh, Myanmar & Pakistan - all LNG plant - under construction Shael gas
within close proximity looking to move into
14
12
13
15
16
17
22
18
19
20
21
20
Conventional gas
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1000 1000
800 800
Port Calls (2016)
400 400
200 200
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Key Highlights
Four new projects totalling 31.7 MTPA of capacity began
commercial operations in 2016:
Gorgon LNG T1-2 (10.4 MTPA)
1200
GLNG T1-2 (7.8 MTPA)
Australia Pacific LNG T1 (4.5 MTPA) in Australia
First two trains (9 MTPA) at Sabine Pass LNG in the United States
200
0
BG
xo PM
he l
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az ll
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Key Highlights
Global LNG regasification capacity also increased, reaching 777
MTPA by end-2016 and 795 MTPA as of January 2017, with new
terminals in China, Japan, France, India, and South Korea.
600
Poland and Colombia have joined the global LNG market as new
importers. UAE (via Abu Dhabi) has also began imports via an
FSRU in 2017 for the first time.
500
Jamaica completed its first LNG terminal in late 2016 and began
importing LNG via floating storage FSRU. Over the last few years,
given relatively low LNG price, new markets have been able to
complete regasification projects fairly quickly using FSRUs over
100
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Created by Wilhelmsen | Ships agency
12
Japan in focus:
LNG review and outlook
13
27 %
Australia 18% 5% Brunei
15%
5% PNG
Malaysia 3% Oman
9%
2% Nigeria
2% Others
Qatar
Russia 8% 6%
Indonesia
UAE
Key Highlights
Australia remains the dominant supplier of LNG to Japan with a continual YOY As with Australia, the United States continues its production of shale gas
increase since 2011 totaling 9%. Further growth throughout 2017 and well into the global supply, with Japan being a key destination. The figures by
into 2018 will continue, as the final phase of current production projects the end of 2017 will reflect this as the United States’ market share grows
come on stream. within Japan.
14
Key Highlights
The opening of Japan’s entire retail power sector to competition in
April 2016 led to relatively fast customer switching, with a direct
impact on incumbents’ fuel procurement needs.
32%
24%
Key Highlights
Renewable energy (including biofuels) continued again as the
18%
fastest global growing energy source, accounting for approx. a
third of the increase in primary energy. That being said, it was oil
13% that actually provided the largest contribution to growth, due to
low levels of oil prices boosting demand.
10%
By contrast, it must be said that Natural gas also grew at the same
rate as oil. However the most prominent feature across the
Global different energies was the continuing rapid descent of coal, with
Energy 3% consumption dropping sharply for the second consecutive year.
Demand
(2016) Japan’s energy self-sufficiency rate is
forecast to improve to about 24.3% by 2030,
Japan Coal Natural Nuclear Hydro Oil Other
from 6.1% in 2013. Electricity costs are
Electricity Gas predicted to drop by 2-5% from current
Generation 3%
levels driven by reductions in fuel expenses
Mix (2030)
from the expansion of renewable energy, the
~9%
restart of nuclear power plants, efficiency
improvements in thermal power generation
14% as well as stronger global demand on
countries to promote and implement
20 - renewable energy use.
22%
26%
27%
Created by Wilhelmsen | Ships agency Source: METi
16
Korea in focus:
LNG review and outlook
17
37 %
Qatar
12% 11% 11%
Oman
Indonesia Malaysia
8% 8% 5%
Russia Australia 4 %
4 %
Others
Nigeria Brunei
Key Highlights
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports into South Korea, the world’s Kogas, who controls 100% of the LNG market in Korea, operates a total of
second-largest buyer of the fuel, rose by 39.6% in June year-on-year. 74 LNG storage tanks in South Korea and overseas. It imports
approximately 96 percent of Korea’s LNG demand via its four LNG
Qatar, the world’s biggest LNG exporter, remained the dominant source terminals, namely Incheon, Pyeongtaek, Tongyeong and Samcheok.
of South Korean imports. Australia is now emerging as a major supplier,
with new terminals in Australia coming on stream to which Kogas is a
major buyer.
18
Key Highlights
24%
38%
Created by Wilhelmsen | Ships agency Source: METi
20
Wilhelmsen
21
Asia
Europe
North America
Darwin
Africa
Barrow Island
Dampier
Gladstone
Australia
South America
Australia
Cargo Operation