Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Ruth Rivera
CFPA, C(k)P®
Certified 401(k) Professional
512-796-1205
Email:
rrivera@bukaty.com www.bukatyfs.com
2018 Issue 2 Builders Outlook 3
President’s
*
Edmundo
PRINT & INTERNET
Message
Dena
President,
el Paso association
PUBLISHING
of Builders
*
Social Media & WeBSiTe
conTenT ManageMenT
*
e-Mail neWSleTTeRS
Message D
n
o
“I like to say this about trade advocacy: it is an important part of
Ray Adauto, your professional life because together you have more strength than A
trying to go it alone. “
Executive
Vice President c
EPAB T
T
P
Associations have a long history of to Wikipedia “Advocacy is an activity trying to go it alone. motivate and join forces to keep this
being asked that question and it’s no by an individual or group which aims In membership there’s a lot of industry healthy. On April 2 we begin
different when we are recruiting to influence decisions within political, different components including a training with Rob and Kate Oliver on
members or asking them to renew. economic, and social systems and advocacy, networking, fun, sharing getting prepped for the upcoming
It’s a painful question because most institutions. Advocacy can include and much more. Some members membership drive. The Oliver Group
of the time it comes from people who many activities that a person or prefer to just join to say they are is widely respected as one of the best
have either a bad experience or no organization undertakes including members. Others are wanting to earn membership training companies in the
active experience with being a media campaigns, public speaking, some business from members, while world. In the past we’ve used them to
member. In reality most commissioning and publishing others like the fun part or the increase our own membership. What
memberships whether they are for research or conducting exit poll or the networking. All of these are good we find ourselves doing as well is
and association, gym, or shopping are filing of an amicus brief. Lobbying reasons to join or remain a member. making our daily work activities better
sometimes never used or used so (often by lobby groups) is a form of What isn’t good is to hear “I got because of what they show us. We
sparingly that it seems like there’s no advocacy where a direct approach is nothing from it”. Why? Because a will have teams competing for the
value to it. Sometimes a membership made to legislators on an issue which membership is only as good as you right to claim the best of the best
is the last item on your heavy plays a significant role in modern use it. Heck many of us including me membership recruiters in the EPAB.
workload so you overlook it or worse politics.[1] Research has started to belong to a gym membership. Rarely There will be prizes for doing this as
never use it. address how advocacy groups in the or never use it but man o man I’m a well as an opportunity to get involved
It’s an age-old question of what United States[2] and Canada[3] are member and so therefore I’m in the in the association and making you a
comes first, the chicken or the egg. using social media to facilitate civic group. Seriously a gym membership better advocate.
An association like ours has a very engagement and collective action.” can only do you good if you use it. Don’t wait to get invited, just reach
specific reason to exist: advocacy for I like to say this about trade So too with the Builders Association. out to me and we’ll put you in a team.
the new home construction business advocacy: it is an important part of We have an opportunity to ask our I promise that it is nothing like you’ve
in El Paso. Some will wonder what your professional life because neighbors to join our trade association ever been involved with and the
the word advocacy means. According together you have more strength than and begin to help us advocate, training will last a lifetime.
!
! "
National
2018 Issue 2 Builders Outlook 5
Builder News
Online Entries:
8
3
January 19 - March 20
Early Bird Deadline: March 6
TABSTARAWARDS.COM
Sponsors (as of 1.24.2018): Expressions Home Gallery - Morrison Showroom, StrucSure Home Warranty,
Texas Home Builders Safety Group, TopBuild Home Services
2018 Issue 2 Builders Outlook 7
Economic
Forescast
Elliot Eisenberg
Economic & Policy
CELEBRATING
Blog
EPAB
The Fed’s 2018 Interest Rate Plan
At the start of 2017, the Federal employment growth slows a bit; the
THE BEST OF EPAB
Reserve anticipated raising interest unemployment rate falls a bit more EL PASO ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS
rates three times and shrinking its but not much; wage inflation starts
INNOVATION u DESIGN u EXCELLENCE u ACHIEVEMENT
large bond portfolio. Unlike in 2015 to rise; and overall economy-wide
and 2016, where the forecasts made inflation strengthens. This would
by the Fed were overly optimistic, allow the Fed to continue raising
the 2017 forecast was spot on. rates slowly and not surprise
Whether officials at the central bank markets. There are, however,
can pull off a repeat performance of several risks to this Goldilocks
three rate hikes in 2018 will very outcome.
much depend on two conflicting The unemployment rate could
signals from the two variables that drop too low too fast and in the
matter most to the Fed: employment process, ignite inflationary
and inflation. pressures of all sorts. This would
Solid job gains have pushed the force the Fed to raise rates quickly,
unemployment rate to just 4.1% in potentially triggering a recession.
January, a 17-year low. If the Alternatively, inflation stays low as
unemployment rate drops as much the Fed slowly raises rates because
in 2018 as it did in 2017 -- a 0.7 the unemployment rate keeps
ENTRY INFORMATION
percentage point decline – it would falling. In this case, inflation is
be at a low last seen in the late pushed even lower, forcing the Fed
1960s. Yet inflation, despite some to stop raising rates. In this
COMING SOON
recent rumblings to the contrary, scenario, the Fed would have little
remains stubbornly soft. Excluding room to lower rates when the next
volatile food and energy, the core recession comes, as they would
inflation rate is just 1.5% -- quite a stop raising rates earlier than they
distance from the Fed’s 2% target, would have liked.
despite the very low unemployment Luckily, inflation seems to be
rate.
Initially, some at the Fed thought
finally appearing, and this will allow
new Fed Chair Powell to raise rates AWARDS CEREMONY SPRING 2018
the low inflation rate was due to in 2018 at a measured pace like
unusual one-off events such as former Fed Chair Yellen. But, as
declines in the price of cell phone was the case in 2015 and 2016,
service, cars, prescription drugs, unforeseen circumstances are likely
and surprisingly weak healthcare to necessitate deviations from the
and higher education inflation. preferred path. I, for one, wish
However, as the inflation weakness Powell luck, but strongly suspect
has persisted, some Fed officials that the economy will be slightly
are beginning to rethink, at least stronger, and that inflation will rise
slightly, the belief that employers faster than expected, necessitating
bid up wages as workers grow four interest rate rises -- one more
increasingly scarce. That said, they than the Fed currently expects. No
still fundamentally believe that once matter what happens, 2018 will be
the unemployment rate falls low bumpier than the economically
enough, wages will rise. It’s just serene and placid 2017.
taking longer than in the past for
this to take place.
At this point, there are several
scenarios that can play out. Ideally,
www.nahb.org/MA
SPECIAL TO BUILDERS OUTLOOK
Woody Hunt
the conditions for higher incomes and those who
say we can’t afford it. Whether it’s the ballpark or Q: What time and resources are you investing?
the arena or any other quality of life investment that
is supported by tax revenues, you have that It’s basically been an effort first to organize the
Executive chairman, Hunt Companies dialogue. border and then to communicate with the rest of
the state. The border can’t do it by itself, so it has to
Q: Can we afford it? Isn’t that a fair question? convince the state of Texas and the political
leadership that NAFTA is extremely important.
It is a legitimate debate. All of the business leadership in the major
History tells us that we haven’t always been poor. metropolitan areas and the state’s largest firms
We lost our competitiveness, but if we had it at one need to be engaged in the process.
point, there’s no reason to think we can’t get it
back. Q: What’s a specific example of that?
There’s no magic pill that’s going to take you from
less competitive to hyper competitive within a short The Borderplex Alliance and its CEO Jon Barela have
period of time. So it’s a culmination of multiple led the effort here. It ultimately developed into the
decisions, public and private, over time, that creates Texas-Mexico Trade Coalition. Jon sits on the
a hyper-competitive region. executive committee. They’ve engaged a lobbyist in
Washington, D.C., and Jon has testified there a
Q: Other cities are also investing in themselves. Is couple of times.
El Paso moving fast enough?
Raised in Ysleta in the Lower Valley, Woody Q: How far has El Paso come and how much farther
Hunt now helms what is likely El Paso’s largest Competition is great because it forces change that does the city have to go?
wouldn’t otherwise happen. It makes it harder for
privately held company: Hunt Companies.
those who say we can’t invest because we’re poor The benchmark I usually use is post World War II
What started 71 years ago as a small to prevail. That’s not a decision to preserve the census data. El Paso was 12 percent above the state
lumberyard by Hunt’s grandfather, the 11- status quo; it is a decision to continue to lose in education for post-secondary attainment and 14
companåy conglomerate now employs about competitiveness. percent above for median income.
6,500 people across the United States and has By 2000, on both of those measures, we were 30
$1.5 billion in assets under management. Q: The effort that began in the early 2000s to percent below the state. It doesn’t mean our
Today, the 72-year-old businessman and reverse El Paso’s economic decline has resulted education levels and incomes didn’t improve, but
in a health sciences center, passage of the clearly we had lost our competitiveness.
philanthropist spends much of his time giving
quality of life bond and a Downtown ballpark.
his wealth away. He passed the CEO job to his Community leaders helped secure the $6 billion Q: El Paso improved but not fast enough.
nephew Chris in 2015 and now serves as expansion of Fort Bliss. What’s next? What
executive chairman of the family-run company. other ‘big thing’ can El Paso pursue? Nowhere near fast enough.
In an exclusive interview with El Paso Inc., In the mid-1990s, there was an increasing focus on
Hunt talked about how far El Paso has come, The Borderplex Alliance has a strategic plan, which changing those circumstances. How do we become
how much farther it has to go. has multiple components in it. The medical device more competitive? That is an ongoing process.
industry is one of them.
Q: Can El Paso attract, or grow locally, more
We have to operate as a region and look at our headquarters like Hunt Companies?
comparative advantages. Juárez is certainly much
better connected to the world economy than El Usually, when you’re recruiting companies to a
By Robert Gray / El Paso Inc. Paso. They are essentially driving our region, you’re not bringing the top-level executives;
competitiveness in many respects by participating in maybe they’re opening a new plant or facility. The
Q: What is the biggest challenge facing El Paso? the world economy. only way you can do that is by growing local
companies, which is increasingly technologically
We have a very low unemployment rate right now; They have 300,000 people employed in based.
it is below the state and the country. I can’t manufacturing that is selling right into the world
remember it ever being this low. That is extremely markets. That’s a huge advantage that we need to So how do you create an ecosystem of innovation
positive. continue to leverage. That’s why the outcome of the and venture capital and startups where everybody
But we have low unemployment and low incomes. NAFTA negotiations is so important for the border wants to do that? There are efforts to do that, and
So the biggest challenge we have now is how do we and for Texas, which is the largest exporting state by the Medical Center of the Americas Foundation has
move up the skills ladder and up the income ladder. far in the country. really been the leader there.
Q: How do you hold a family business together?
Q: In some neighborhoods, more than 40 percent Q: What could the NAFTA negotiations mean for El
of El Paso households live in poverty. El Paso’s Paso? I had to make a decision almost 15 years ago: Is this
median income remains among the lowest a sustainable business absent me? Once you make
anywhere. What is it going to take to move the It’s certainly been a very bumpy road. I’m very that decision then you are into succession planning.
needle? hesitant to be optimistic. I do think it is a compelling You’ve got to decentralize and disperse so
argument that the state of Texas needs NAFTA. I everything isn’t concentrated in one person.
There’s no silver bullet to go from low incomes to mean, 40 percent of our exports go to Mexico.
high incomes. It’s going to take investment in a The stakes are very high to get an outcome that
more competitive quality of life, which gets back to hopefully makes us more competitive. There are This interview conducted by Robert Gray was originally
the political equation. more than 100,000 workers that work in the auto published on February 18, 2018 in El Paso Inc. Business
Journal.
industry in the region. Some disruption to that It appears in the Builders Outlook with the permission of
If we are not willing to invest in ourselves to have supply chain would hurt. That’s a major risk factor. El Paso Inc. and Hunt Companies.
the quality of life that is necessary to attract and The full interview can be viewed online at www elpasoinc.com.
retain higher income jobs, then we are essentially Robert Gray may be contacted at rsgray@elpasoinc.com or by
Q: When you look at all the various risks along the phone at 915-534-4422 extension 143
making a decision that we are always going to be border right now, how high do the NAFTA
poor. negotiations rank?
2018 Issue 2
Premiums increasing
again this year?
Introducing a program
exclusively for members of
the El Paso Association of
Builders.
(915) 542-0900
(888) 269-0626
Hablamos Español
11240 Vista del Sol, El Paso Texas 79936
Mortgage Rates Snap Back to 4-Year Highs
10 Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 2
Mortgage
& Banking
It was a good run for mortgage improvement seen earlier in 2017
rates, relative to the rest of 2018, but The default stance for now is that
after spending 3 days in a row with this trend toward higher rates has the
mild-to-moderate improvements, rates potential to continue. It will take more
quickly snapped back to multi-year than a few great days here and there
highs today. The general trend in for that outlook to change.
2018 as well as the general level of For weeks, this bullet point had
volatility deserve some of the credit. warned about recent stability inviting a
The bonds that underlie mortgage rate bigger dose of volatility. That volatility
pricing actually aren't quite back to last is now here. As such, locking is
week's levels. Lenders are simply generally the better choice until the
quicker to adjust things for the worse volatility is clearly dying down.
when the trend has been unfriendly Rates discussed refer to the most
and when the prices of those frequently-quoted, conforming,
underlying bonds have been jumping conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier
around as much as they have. borrowers among average to well-
The other part of the credit goes to priced lenders. The rates generally
the market's interpretation of assume little-to-no origination or
comments made by new Federal discount except as noted when
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who applicable. Rates appearing on this
gave his first semi-annual page are "effective rates" that take
congressional testimony today. Powell day-to-day changes in upfront costs
didn't do or say anything wrong. In into consideration.
fact, he did a great job conveying what
recent speeches and policy documents
suggest we already know about the
Fed's policy stance.
The only issue was one of his
comments was open to the
interpretation of pointing toward an
additional rate hike in 2018. Many
market participants were already
planning on that rate hike, but the
prevailing view was for a slightly
slower pace. After the Powell
comment (he simply said he thinks the
economic outlook is stronger now than
he did in December), some of the
investors in the "prevailing view" camp
shifted their rate hike outlook to the
"additional hike in 2018" camp. That
was enough for mid-day bond market
weakness and widespread lender
adjustments to higher rates in the
Pioneer Bank understands
FHA/VA - 4.375%
in ban
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www.elpasobuilders.com
Upcoming Events Member News
MARCH 8, 2018 APRIL 6-15 Blast From the Past
BOARD MEETING PARADE OF HOMES What a surprise when our former bookkeeper
12:00 NOON ARTCRAFT ESTATES Dennis Votava stopped in for a visit. Dennis
had spent several years with the EPAB after
EPAB OFFICE
a career with T-Mobile. In his position
APRIL 12, 2018 Dennis was responsible for the everyday
MARCH 14, 2018 BOARD & GENERAL function as the guy taking in the money,
SPEED SELLING MEETING deposits, billing and processing. “I think I
EPAB OFFICE 11:00 BOARD had more hats in this job than I had in all my
12:00 GENERAL other jobs,” he told Ray on the visit. Dennis is a military veteran and is
MARCH 21-23 EL PASO CLUB permanently retired now at age 74. “I just do what my wife says, and
TAB MEETING sometimes I don’t” he said with a laugh. Dennis looks slim and trim and
AUSTIN, TX APRIL 18, 2018 certainly not his age. “Got a new cardiologist who has really helped me.
GOLF TOURNAMENT Make sure to say hello to the members,” Dennis told us. So from Dennis
to all of you a big Hello. “Oh yeah, tell them I’m not dead yet,” he said half
APRIL 2 BUTTERFIELD TRAIL
joking.
Membership Training
EPAB OFfices
Kudos
New Members Congratulations to Kathy Parry on the birth of granddaughter Reata Ward
born to Charla and Dalton Ward.
el paso
builders
Introducing
EPT Bella Custom Dream Homes El Paso New
Home Builders
magazine & website
information...
ves.com for more
Visit www.ElPasoMo
www.efbmi.com
Buyers for 25 years. www.MesaPublishing.com
www.ElPasoNewHomeBuilders.com
14 Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 2
Associates Council
The Associates Council met in February
and over forty members enjoyed a couple of
beverages and conversation. Sam
Shallenberger, Associates Vice President,
opened the gathering by giving an update on
upcoming events. Sam also asked that the
associates become involved in the events and
programs the association will be having this
year. Several event chairs were in the
audience and each g ave a report. Pat Tuttle
co-chairs the Spring Golf Tournament and told
the group that there were some great
opportunities for advertising at the golf course.
Angelique Roman, Brenda Aguirre and
Patricia Martinez head up the Community
Service Committee. They talked about the
upcoming playhouse build for the Children’s
Foundation and reminded the group that they
are still looking at helping some needy folk s
with their homes.
Sam announced that there would some off
site get togethers during the year, with the first
event being held at Morrison Supply
sometime in May. All members would be
welcomed at the event, just a social event
with networking.
Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 2 El Paso Disposal
6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905
915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038
■ ExEcuTivE OFFicERS
PRESiDENT
Edmundo Dena
Sandra Lucero, Builders Source
Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing
Jorge Herrera, J&H Post Concrete & Post Tension
772-7495
vicE PRESiDENT Angelique Roman, Sierra Title
Sergio Cuartas Patrick Tuttle, Legacy Real Estate
SEcRETARY Sam Trimble, Lone Star Title
Edgar Garcia Patricia Martinez, Stewart Title
ExEcuTivE vicE PRESiDENT Randall Smith, Randall Smith, CPA
Ray Adauto
PAST PRESiDENT ■ TAB STATE DiREcTORS
Don Rassette Randy Bowling - Life Director
Sam Shallenberger
■ cOMMiTTEE cHAiRS Edmundo Dena
Membership
Ted Escobedo ■ NATiONAL DiREcTORS
Patrick Tuttle Bobby Bowling, IV
Demetrio Jimenez
Finance committee Leslie Driggers Hoard -Alternate
Kathy Carrillo/Treasurer Antonio Cervantes - Alternate
Henry Tinajero
Honorary Life Members
Community Outreach Mark Dyer
Angelique Roman Wayne Grinnell
Brenda Aguirre Don Henderson
Patricia Martinez
Residential Specialists
Kelly Sorenson Edmundo Dena
Delton Deal Edgar Montiel
Frank Torres
915-208-9313
Fernando Torres, Metro Homes Pat Woods
Leslie Driggers Hoard, Homes by Design Carlos Villalobos
Total Customer
Carlos Garcia, ICON Custom
800-853-3996
EPAB Mission Statement:
Sal Masoud, Del Rio Development The El Paso Association of Builders is a federated professional
Fernando Santana, Santana Custom Homes
Satisfaction
organization representing the home building industry,
Chris Hakes, Hakes Brothers committed to enhancing the quality of life in our community by
Associates: providing affordable homes of excellence and value.
Joe Bernal, Joe Bernal Insurance The El Paso Association of Builders is a 501C(6) trade
Henry Tinajero, WestStar Bank organization.
Kathy Carillo, Pioneer Bank © 2017 Builder’s Outlook is published and distributed for
John Chaney, Passage Supply the El Paso Association of Builders
Luis Rosas, HUB International by Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing, LLC
Brenda Aguirre, GECU Mortgage ted@snappypublishing.com
El Paso • Texas • 915-820-2800
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