Robock A 2000 - Volcanic Eruptions and Climate PDF

VOLCAN IC ERUPTIONS AN D CLIMATE
Alan Robock
Departmentof Environmental
Sciences
RutgersUniversity
New Brunswick,New Jersey
Abstract. Volcaniceruptionsare an importantnatural an enhancedpole-to-equatortemperature gradient, es-

cause of climate change on many timescales.A new pecially in winter. In the Northern Hemisphere winter
capability to predict the climatic responseto a large this enhancedgradientproducesa strongerpolar vortex,
tropical eruption for the succeeding2 yearswill prove and this strongerjet stream producesa characteristic
valuableto society.In addition, to detect and attribute stationarywave pattern of troposphericcirculation,re-
anthropogenicinfluenceson climate,includingeffectsof sultingin winter warmingof Northern Hemispherecon-
greenhousegases,aerosols,and ozone-depleting chem- tinents.This indirect advectiveeffect on temperatureis
icals,it is crucial to quantify the natural fluctuationsso strongerthan the radiativecoolingeffect that dominates
as to separatethem from anthropogenicfluctuationsin at lower latitudes and in the summer. The volcanic
the climate record. Studyingthe responsesof climate to aerosolsalso serveas surfacesfor heterogeneouschem-
volcanic eruptions also helps us to better understand ical reactions that destroy stratosphericozone, which
important radiative and dynamical processesthat re- lowers ultraviolet absorptionand reducesthe radiative
spondin the climate systemto both natural and anthro- heating in the lower stratosphere,but the net effect is
pogenicforcings.Furthermore, modeling the effectsof still heating.Becausethischemicaleffectdependson the
volcaniceruptionshelps us to improve climate models presenceof anthropogenicchlorine,it has only become
that are neededto studyanthropogeniceffects.Large important in recent decades.For a few days after an
volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gasesinto the strato- eruptionthe amplitudeof the diurnal cycleof surfaceair
sphere,which convertto sulfateaerosolswith an e-fold- temperature is reduced under the cloud. On a much
ing residencetime of about 1 year. Large ash particles longer timescale,volcaniceffectsplayed a large role in
fall out muchquicker.The radiativeandchemicaleffects interdecadalclimatechangeof the Little Ice Age. There
of this aerosolcloud produce responsesin the climate is no perfect index of pastvolcanism,but more ice cores
system.By scatteringsomesolarradiationbackto space, fromGreenland
andAntarctica
willimprove
therecord.
the aerosolscoolthe surface,but by absorbingboth solar There is no evidencethat volcaniceruptionsproduceE1
and terrestrial radiation, the aerosol layer heats the Nifio events, but the climatic effects of E1 Nifio and
stratosphere.For a tropical eruption this heating is volcaniceruptionsmust be separatedto understandthe
largerin the tropicsthan in the high latitudes,producing climatic responseto each.
1. INTRODUCTION the main text.) Mitchell [1961]wasthe first to conducta

superposedepoch analysis,averagingthe effectsof sev-
Volcanism has long been implicated as a possible eral eruptionsto isolate the volcanic effect from other
causeof weatherand climatevariations.Even 2000years presumablyrandom fluctuations. He only looked at
ago,Plutarchand others[Forsyth,1988]pointedout that 5-yearaverageperiods,however,and did not havea very
the eruption of Mount Etna in 44 B.C. dimmed the Sun long temperaturerecord.Severalpreviousreviewsof the
and suggested that the resultingcoolingcausedcropsto effects of volcanoeson climate include Lamb [1970],
shrivel and producedfamine in Rome and Egypt. No Toonand Pollack [1980], Toon [1982],Ellsaesser[1983],
other publicationson this subjectappeareduntil Ben- Asaturovet al. [1986],Kondratyev[1988],Robock[1989,
jamin Franklin suggestedthat the Lakagigareruptionin 1991],andKondratyevand Galindo [1997].Pasttheoret-
Iceland in 1783 might have been responsiblefor the ical studies of the radiative effects include Pollack et al.
abnormallycold summerof 1783 in Europe and the cold [1976],Harshvardhan[1979], Hansenet al. [1992], and
winter of 1783-1784 [Franklin,1784].Humphreys[1913, Stenchikovet al. [1998].The work of H. H. Lamb, in fact,
1940]associatedcoolingeventsafter largevolcanicerup- was extremely influential in the modern study of the
tionswith the radiativeeffectsof the stratosphericaero- impact of volcanic eruptions on climate [Kelly et al.,
solsbut did not have a sufficientlylong or horizontally 1998].Sincethesereviews,a deeperand more complex
extensivetemperature databaseto quantify the effects. understanding
of the impactsof volcaniceruptionson
(Termsin italicare definedin the glossary,whichfollows weather and climate has resulted, driven by the many
Copyright2000 by the AmericanGeophysicalUnion. Reviewsof Geophysics,

38, 2 / May'2000
pages191-219
8755-1209/00/1998 RG000054 $15.00 Papernumber1998RG000054
ß 191 ß
192 ß Robock: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE 38, 2 / REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS
TABLE 1. Major Volcanic Eruptions of the Past 250 Years
Year of
VolcaFlo Eruption VEI D VI/Emax IVI
Grimsvotn[Lakagigar],Iceland 1783 4 2300 0.19

Tambora, Sumbawa, Indonesia 1815 7 3000 0.50
Cosiguina,Nicaragua 1835 5 4000 0.11
Askja, Iceland 1875 5 1000 0.01'
Krakatau, Indonesia 1883 6 1000 0.12
Okataina [Tarawera],North Island, New Zealand 1886 5 800 0.04
Santa Maria, Guatemala 1902 6 600 0.05
Ksudach, Kamchatka, Russia 1907 5 500 0.02
Novarupta[Katmai], Alaska, United States 1912 6 500 0.15
Agung,Bali, Indonesia 1963 4 800 0.06
Mount St. Helens, Washington,United States 1980 5 500 0.00
E1 Chich6n, Chiapas,Mexico 1982 5 800 0.06
Mount Pinatubo,Luzon, Philippines 1991 6 1000 ...
The officialnamesof the volcanoesandthe volcanicexplosivityindex(VEI) [Newhalland Self,1982]are from Simkinand Siebert[1994].The
dustveil index(DVI/Emax)comesfrom Lamb [1970,1977,1983],updatedby Robockand Free [1995].The ice corevolcanicindex(IVI) is the
averageof Northern and SouthernHemispherevaluesand is representedas opticaldepth at X - 0.55 pom[fromRobockand Free, 1995,1996].
*SouthernHemispheresignalonly; probablynot Askja.
studiesof the impactof the 1991Pinatuboeruptionand London [Symons,1888; Simkin and Fiske, 1983]. This
continuinganalysesof the 1982 E1 Chich6n eruption in wasprobablythe loudestexplosionof historictimes,and
Mexico. the book includescolor figuresof the resultingpressure
This paper reviewsthese new results,includingthe wave'sfour circuitsof the globe as measuredby micro-
indirecteffect on atmosphericcirculationthat produces barographs.The 1963 Agung eruption produced the
winterwarmingof the NorthernHemisphere(NH) con- largeststratosphericdustveil in more than 50 yearsand
tinentsand the new impactson ozonedue to the strato- inspired many modern scientific studies. While the
sphericpresenceof anthropogenicchlorine. A better Mount St. Helenseruptionof 1980wasvery explosive,it
understandingof the impactsof volcaniceruptionshas did not inject much sulfurinto the stratosphere.There-
importantapplicationsin a numberof areas.Attribution fore it had very smallglobaleffects[Robock,1981a].Its
of the warming of the past century to anthropogenic troposphericeffectslastedonly a few days[Robockand
greenhousegasesrequiresassessment of other causesof Mass, 1982;Mass and Robock, 1982], but it occurredin
climate changeduring the past severalhundredyears, the United States and so received much attention.
includingvolcaniceruptionsand solarvariations.After Quantificationof the size of theseeruptionsis difficult,
the next major eruption,new knowledgeof the indirect as different measures reveal different information. For
effectson atmosphericcirculationwill allow better sea- example,one could examinethe total massejected,the
sonalforecasts,especiallyfor the NH in the winter. The explosiveness, or the sulfur input to the stratosphere.
impactsof volcaniceruptionsserveas analogs,although The limitationsof data for each of thesepotentialmea-
imperfectones,for the effectsof other massiveaerosol sures,and a descriptionof indicesthat have been pro-
loadings of the atmosphere,including meteorite or duced, are discussedlater.
comet impactsor nuclearwinter. Volcaniceruptionscan inject into the stratosphere
The largesteruptionsof the past250 years(Table 1) tens of teragramsof chemicallyand microphysically ac-
have each drawn attention to the atmosphericand po- tive gasesand solid aerosolparticles,which affect the
tential climatic effects becauseof their large effects in Earth's radiative balance and climate, and disturb the
the English-speaking world. (Simkin et al. [1981] and stratosphericchemicalequilibrium.The volcaniccloud
Simkinand Siebert[1994]providea comprehensive list of forms in several weeks by SO2 conversionto sulfate
all known volcanoesand their eruptions.) The 1783 aerosol and its subsequentmicrophysicaltransforma-
eruptionin Icelandproducedlarge effectsall that sum- tions [Pintoet al., 1989;Zhao et al., 1995].The resulting
mer in Europe [Franklin,1784;Grattanet al., 1998].The cloudof sulfateaerosolparticles,with an e-foldingdecay
1815 Tambora eruption producedthe "year without a time of approximately1 year [e.g.,Barnesand Hoffman,
summer"in 1816 [Stommeland Stommel,1983;Stothers, 1997], has important impacts on both shortwaveand
1984; Robock, 1984a, 1994; Harington, 1992] and in- longwave radiation. The resulting disturbanceto the
spiredthe book Frankenstein[Shelley,1818]. The most Earth's radiation balance affectssurfacetemperatures
extensivestudyof the impactsof a singlevolcanicerup- throughdirect radiative effectsas well as throughindi-
tion wascarriedout by the Royal Society,examiningthe rect effectson the atmosphericcirculation.In cold re-
1883 Krakatau eruption,in a beautifullyproducedvol- gions of the stratospherethese aerosolparticles also
ume includingwatercolorsof the volcanicsunsetsnear serve as surfacesfor heterogeneous chemical reactions
38, 2 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS Robock:VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSAND CLIMATE ß 193
that liberate chlorineto destroyozone in the sameway H20 , N2, and CO2 being the most abundant.Over the
that water and nitric acid aerosolsin polar stratospheric lifetime of the Earth these gaseshave been the main
cloudsproducethe seasonalAntarcticozonehole. sourceof the planet's atmosphereand ocean, after the
In thispaper I firstbrieflysummarizevolcanicinputs primitive atmospherewas lost to space.The water has
to the atmosphereand reviewour newunderstanding of condensedinto the oceans,the CO2 has been changed
the radiativeforcingof the climatesystemproducedby by plants into 02, with someof the C turned into fossil
volcanic aerosols.Next, I briefly review the results of fuels. Of course,we eat the plants and the animalsthat
new analysesof ice cores,sincethey give information eat the plants,we drink the water, and we breathe the
about the record of pastvolcanism,and comparethese oxygen,so eachof us is made of volcanicemissions. The
new recordsto pastanalyses. The effectsof eruptionson atmosphereis now mainly composedof N 2 (78%) and
the local diurnal cycle are reviewed.Summer cooling 02 (21%), both of whichhad sourcesin volcanicemis-
and winter warmingfrom large explosiveeruptionsare sions.
then explained.The impactsof volcaniceruptionson Of these abundant gases,both H20 and CO2 are
decadal- and century-scaleclimate changes,and their importantgreenhousegases,but their atmosphericcon-
contributionsto the Little Ice Age and their relative centrationsare solarge(evenfor CO2 at onlyabout370
contributionto the warmingof the pastcentury,are next ppm but growing)that individualeruptionshave a neg-
discussed.Then, I show that the simultaneous occur- ligible effect on their concentrations and do not directly
rence of the 1982 E1 Nifio and the E1 Chich6n eruption impact the greenhouseeffect. Rather, the most impor-
wasjust a coincidenceand that it wasnot evidenceof a tant climatic effect of explosivevolcanic eruptions is
cause and effect relationship.Finally, the impacts of through their emissionof sulfur speciesto the strato-
volcanic eruptions on stratosphericozone are briefly sphere,mainly in the form of SO2 [Pollacket al., 1976;
reviewed. Newhall and Self, 1982; Rampino and Self, 1984] but
possiblysometimes asH2S [Luhret al., 1984;Ahn, 1997].
These sulfur speciesreact with OH and H20 to form
2. VOLCANIC INPUTS TO THE ATMOSPHERE H2SO4 on a timescaleof weeks,and the resultingH2SO4
aerosolsproduce the dominant radiative effect from
Volcanic eruptionsinject severaldifferent types of volcaniceruptions.Bluth et al. [1992], from satellite
particlesandgasesinto the atmosphere(Plate 1). In the measurements, estimated that the 1982 E1 Chich6n
past,it wasonlypossibleto estimatethesevolatileinputs eruptioninjected7 Mt of SO2 into the atmosphere,and
basedon measurementsfrom active,but not explosive, the 1991 Pinatuboeruption injected 20 Mt.
eruptionsand remote sensingof the resultingaerosol Once injectedinto the stratosphere,the large aerosol
clouds from lidar, radiometers, and satellites. The ser- particlesand smallonesbeingformedby the sulfurgases
endipitousdiscoveryof the ability of the Total Ozone are rapidly advectedaround the globe. Observations
Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrumentto monitor after the 1883 Krakatau eruption showedthat the aero-
SO2[e.g.,Bluthet al., 1992],however,hasgivenus a new sol cloud circledthe globe in 2 weeks [Symons,1888].
tool to directlymeasurestratosphericinjectionof gases Both the 1982 E1 Chich6n cloud [Robockand Matson,
from eruptions. 1983] and the 1991 Pinatubocloud [Bluthet al., 1992]
The major componentof volcaniceruptionsis mag- circled the globe in 3 weeks. Although E1 Chich6n
matic material,which emergesas solid,lithic material or (17øN)and Pinatubo(15øN)are separatedby only 2ø of
solidifiesinto largeparticles,whichare referredto asash latitude, their clouds,after only one circuitof the globe,
or tephra.Theseparticlesfall out of the atmospherevery endedup separatedby 15øof latitude,with the Pinatubo
rapidly,on timescalesof minutesto a few weeksin the cloudstraddlingthe equator[Stoweet al., 1992]and the
troposphere.Smallamountscanlastfor a few monthsin E1 Chich6n cloud extending approximatelyfrom the
the stratospherebut have very small climatic impacts. equatorto 30øN[Strong,1984].Subsequent dispersionof
Symons[1888], after the 1883 Krakatau eruption, and a stratosphericvolcanic cloud dependsheavily on the
Robock and Mass [1982], after the 1980 Mount St. particulardistributionof winds at the time of eruption,
Helenseruption,showedthat thistemporarylargeat- althoughhigh-latitudeeruptioncloudsare seldomtrans-
mosphericloadingreducedthe amplitudeof the diurnal portedbeyondthe midlatitudesof the samehemisphere.
cycle of surfaceair temperature in the region of the For trying to reconstructthe effectsof older eruptions,
troposphericcloud.Theseeffects,however,disappearas this factor addsa further complication,asthe latitude of
soon as the particles settle to the ground. When an the volcano is not sufficient information.
eruption columnstill laden with thesehot particlesde- The normal residualstratosphericmeridional circu-
scendsdownthe slopesof a volcano,thispyroclastic flow lation lifts the aerosolsin the tropics,transportsthem
can be deadlyto thoseunluckyenoughto be at the base polewardin the midlatitudes,and bringsthem backinto
of the volcano.The destructionof Pompeii and Hercu- the troposphereat higherlatitudeson a timescaleof 1-2
laneum after the 79 A.D. Vesuviuseruption is the most years [Trepteand Hitchman, 1992; Trepteet al., 1993;
famousexample. Holton et al., 1995].
Volcanic eruptions typically also emit gases,with Quiescent continuousvolcanic emissions,including
194 ß Robock:VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSAND CLIMATE 38, 2 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS
0.94
0.92
0.9
0.88
0.86
0.84
0.82
0.8
0.78
1960 1965 19•0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Figure 1. Broadbandspectrally integratedatmospheric transmissionfactor,measured with thepyrheliometer

shownin Plate2.Duttonetal. [1985]andDutton[1992]describe the detailsof the calculations,
whicheliminate
instrumentcalibrationand solarconstantvariationdependence,and showmainlythe effectsof aerosols.
Effectsof the 1963Agung,1982E1 Chich6n,and 1991Pinatuboeruptionscan clearlybe seen.Years on
abscissaindicateJanuaryof that year. Data courtesyof E. Dutton.
fumarolesand small episodiceruptions,add sulfatesto radiationby scattering.Some of the light is backscat-

the troposphere, but their lifetimes there are much tered, reflectingsunlightback to space,increasingthe
shorterthan thoseof stratospheric aerosols.Therefore net planetaryalbedo and reducingthe amountof solar
they are not importantfor climate change,but they energythat reachesthe Earth's surface.This backscat-
couldbe if there is a suddenchangeor a long-termtrend tering is the dominantradiative effect at the surfaceand
in them develops.Global sulfuremissionof volcanoesto resultsin a net coolingthere.Much of the solarradiation
the troposphereis about 14% of the total natural and is forward scattered,resultingin enhanceddownward
anthropogenicemission[Graf et al., 1997] but has a diffuseradiationthat somewhatcompensates for a large
much larger relative contribution to radiative effects. reductionin the directsolarbeam.The longestcontin-
Many volcanic emissionsare from the sides of moun- uousrecord of the effectsof volcaniceruptionson at-
tains, abovethe atmosphericboundarylayer, and thus mospherictransmissionof radiation is the apparent
theyhavelongerlifetimesthan anthropogenic aerosols. transmis.sion record [Duttonet al., 1985;Dutton, 1992]
Radiativeforcing(measuredat the surface)from such from the Mauna Loa Observatory(Plate 2) shownin
emissionsis estimated to be about -0.2 W m -2 for the Figure 1. The effectsof the 1963 Agung, 1982 E1 Chi-
globeand-0.3 W m-2 fortheNH, onlya littlelessthan ch6n,and 1991Pinatuboeruptionscanbe clearlyseen.
anthropogeniceffects. Although the Pinatubo eruption producedthe largest
stratosphericinput of the three, the center of the E1
Chich6ncloudwentdirectlyoverHawaii,whileonlythe
3. RADIATIVE FORCING side of the Pinatubocloudwas observed.The Agung
cloudwas mostlyin the SouthernHemisphere,so only
Plate 1 indicatesthe major radiativeprocesses result- the edgewas seenin Hawaii. Figure 2 showsseparate
ing from the stratospheric aerosolcloudfrom a major direct and diffuse radiation measurements,also from
volcanic eruption. The most obvious and well-known Mauna Loa, whichshownot onlythe strongreductionof
effect is on solar radiation. Since the sulfate aerosol direct radiation by the 1982 E1 Chich6n and 1991 Pina-
particlesare aboutthe samesizeas visiblelight, with a tubo eruptionsbut alsothe compensating increase(of
typical effectiveradius of 0.5 •xm, but have a single- slightlysmalleramplitude)in the diffuseradiation.
scatter albedo of 1, they strongly interact with solar The effect on solarradiationis so strongthat it can
'*'" X
lit
Plate 2. Photographof radiationinstrumentsat the Mauna Loa Observatoryon the Island of Hawaii,
United States,lookingnorth towardHualalai, on March 27, 1992. Observations
in Figures1 and 2 and
photograph in Plate3 are takenfrom theseand similarinstruments.
Photograph by A. Robock.
Plate 3. Photographof skysurrounding the Sun on March 27, 1992,lessthan 1 year after the Pinatubo
eruption,takenat MaunaLoa Observatory bylayingthe cameraon the supportshownin Plate2 andhaving
a portionof that supportblockout the directsolarradiation.The milkyappearance is the enhancedforward
scattering(Figure2), clearlyvisibleto the nakedeye.Whenthe stratosphere is clear,the normalappearance
is a deepblue producedby molecularRayleighscattering. Photographby A. Robock.
38 2 / REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS Robock: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE ß 197
Plate 4. Sunsetover Lake Mendota in Madison, Wisconsin,in May 1983, one year after the E1 Chich6n
eruption. Photographby A. Robock.
easily be seen by the naked eye, making the normally [Houghtonet al., 1996, p. 109]. For aerosolswith a
blueskymilkywhite(forwardscatteringeffect)(Plate3). nonuniform vertical and horizontal distribution,
Volcanic aerosolcloudsare clearlyvisiblefrom spacein Stenchikovet al. [1998] showedthat a completeformu-
solarwavelengthimages[e.g.,Robockand Matson, 1983] lation of radiative forcing must include not only the
and in spaceshuttlephotographs(backscattering). The changesof net fluxes at the tropopause,but also the
reflectionof the settingSun from the bottom of strato- verticaldistributionof atmosphericheatingratesand the
sphericvolcanicaerosollayers (called "dust veils" by change of downward thermal and net solar radiative
Lamb [1970]) producesthe characteristicred sunset fluxes at the surface. Using a detailed data set they
(Plate 4) usedby Lamb as one meansof detectingpast developedfrom satelliteand ground-basedobservations,
eruptions. The famous 1893 Edvard Munch painting, they calculated the aerosol radiative forcing with the
"The Scream," showsa red volcanic sunsetover the Oslo ECHAM4 (European Center/Hamburg)general circu-
harbor producedby the 1892 Awu eruption. The timing lation model (GCM) [Roeckneret al., 1996].
of the reportsof red sunsetswasusedby Symons[1888] An exampleof the radiativeheatingfrom Pinatubois
and Lamb [1970] to calculatethe height of the aerosol shownin Plate 5. At the top of the aerosol cloud, the
layer, taking into accountthe geometryof the setting atmosphereis warmed by absorptionof solar radiation
Sun. Robock [1983a] also providesa diagram showing in the near infrared (near-IR). This effect dominates
how these red sunsets can be observed after the Sun has over the enhanced IR cooling due to the enhanced
set. emissivitybecause of the presence of aerosols.An-
To evaluate the effects of a volcanic eruption on dronovaet al. [1999]recentlyrepeatedthesecalculations
climate, the radiativeforcingfrom the aerosolsmust be with a more detailed radiation model and confirmed the
calculated.Stenchikovet al. [1998] presenteda detailed importanceof near-IR abosorption.In the lower strato-
study of the radiative forcing from the 1991 Mount sphere the atmosphereis heated by absorptionof up-
Pinatuboeruption.Althoughthiswas the mostcompre- ward longwaveradiation from the troposphereand sur-
hensivelyobservedlarge eruption ever [e.g., Russellet face. Hence this warming would be affected by the
al., 1996],they still neededto make severalassumptions distributionof cloudsin the troposphere,but Stenchikov
to compensatefor gapsin the observations.For globally et al. [1998] found that this effect (on changedupward
smoothradiativeperturbations,suchas changinggreen- longwaveflux) was random and an order of magnitude
housegasconcentrations, radiativeforcingis definedas smallerthan the amplitudeof the warming.In the tro-
the changein the net radiative flux at the tropopause posphere, there are small radiative effects, since the
198 ß Robock: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE 38, 2 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS
August, 1991 January• 1992

e)
IO
30.
5O
50
lOO O0
300 O0
500 O0
700 O0
900' O0
505 305 EQ 3ON 5ON 6O5 30S EQ 30N 60N
Visible
b)
5o 5o !
100 100-
300 300
500 500
700- 700
900 go0
605 30S EO 30N 60• 60S 30S EQ 30N 60N
Near IR
c) g)
-,3
- 1
30
5o •o
ioo •oo
300'
ß 0'05
, .• ]oo
500 5o0
7OO 7oo
9O0 .,
90o
6OS 3OS EO 30N 6ON 60S 30S EQ 3ON 60N
IR
d) h)
10 ' ' I -n'n•
1• 1
J ' ' ,X•• ,,•u•
3O •o •o, Z' "• •" -
5o
I00
.01
3o0 500
50O I -0.01• '1I'

500
700 700
c•.y., • •-of•
900 ....
6OS 30S EO 3ON 60N 6OS 3OS EQ 30N 60N

Total
Plate 5. Radiativeheatingfrom Pinatubofor three differentwavelengthbands,from Figure 10 of Stenchikov

etal. [1998].Shownaremonthlyaverage,
zonalaverage,
perturbations
of theradiativeheatingrates(K d-•)
causedby the Pinatuboaerosolsfor (a) visible(X -< 0.68 txm),(b) near-IR (0.68 txm< X < 4 txm),(c) IR (X ->
4 txm),and (d) total, for August1991,and (e) visible,(f) near-IR, (g) IR, and (h) total, for January1992.
38, 2 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS Robock' VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE ß 199
540
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
38O
,360
Direct
54O
22O
2OO
Diffuse
180
160
Radiation
140
120
1 O0
8O
6O
4O
2O
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 '1992 1994 1996 1998
Figure 2. Direct and diffuse broadbandradiation measurementsfrom the Mauna Loa observatory,mea-
suredwith a trackingpyrheliometerand shadediskpyranometeron morningswith clear skiesat solarzenith
angleof 60ø, equivalentto two relativeair masses[Duttonand Christy,1992].The reductionof direct radiation
and enhancementof diffuseradiationafter the 1982E1Chich6nand 1991Pinatuboeruptionsare clearlyseen.
Years on abscissaindicate Januaryof that year. Data courtesyof E. Dutton.
reduceddownwardnear-IR (producinglessabsorption throughtropopausefolds [Sassenet al., 1995],the global

by water vapor in the troposphere)is compensatedby effect has not been quantified.
the additional downward longwaveradiation from the
aerosol cloud. At the surface the large reduction in
direct shortwave radiation overwhelms the additional 4. INDICES OF PAST VOLCANISM
downward diffuse shortwave flux and the small addi-
tional downward longwave radiation from the aerosol To evaluate the causesof climate changeduring the
cloud, except in the polar night, where there is no pastcenturyand a half of instrumentalrecordsor during
sunlight,whichwasfirst shownby Harshvardhan[1979]. the past2000 years,includingthe MedievalWarmingand
This net cooling at the surface is responsiblefor the the "Little Ice Age," a reliable record of the volcanic
well-knownglobal coolingeffect of volcaniceruptions. aerosol loading of the atmosphereis necessary.Five
These calculationsagree with observationsof surface suchindices(Table 2) have been compiled,based on
flux changesmade at Mauna Loa by Dutton and Christy different data sourcesand criteria, but none is perfect.
[1992].They alsoagreewith observations of Minnis et al. Robockand Free [1995, 1996] describetheseindicesin
[1993] made with Earth Radiation Budget Experiment detail and compare them, and here I summarizethem.
satellitedata [Barkstrom,1984], if the effectsof strato- Another index describedby Robock and Free [1995],
sphericwarming are considered. beingusedby someclimatemodelinggroupsat the time,
Plate 5 also shows,for Pinatubo, that the lower strato- wasnever publishedand so is not includedhere. Pollack
sphericheatingis much larger in the tropicsthan at the et al. [1976] also compileda record of volcanicoptical
poles.It is this latitudinal gradientof heatingwhich sets depth,but it was limited to 1880-1925 and 1962-1972.
up a dynamicalresponsein the atmosphere,resultingin A perfect index would convey the radiative forcing
the winter warming of NH continentalregions,due to associatedwith each explosiveeruption. The radiative
advectiveeffects,which dominate over the radiative ef- forcing is most directly related to the sulfur content of
fects in the winter. emissionsthat reachinto the stratosphereand not to the
The possibleeffect of the aerosolson seedingcirrus explosivityof the eruption. However, all indirect indices
cloud formation [Mohnen,1990] is indicatedin Plate 1. are either incompletein geographicalor temporalcov-
While evidence exists for individual cases of cirrus cloud erage or are a measure of some property of volcanic
formationby volcanicaerosolsenteringthe troposphere eruptionsother than their stratosphericaerosolloading.
200 ß Robock: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE 38, 2 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS
TABLE 2. Indices of Past Volcanic Eruptions
Name Units How Calculated Reference
Dust veil index (DVI) Krakatau = 1000 Sapper[1917, 1927],sunsets,eruption,and radiation Lamb [1970, 1977, 1983]
observations
Mitchell aerosol mass basedon H. H. Lamb (personalcommunication,1970) Mitchell [1970]

Volcanic explosivity Krakatau = 6 explosivity,from geologicand historicalreports Newhalland Self [1982]
index (VEI) Simkinet al. [1981]
Simkinand Siebert[1994]
Sato -r (X = 0.55 txm) Mitchell[1970],radiationand satelliteobservations Satoet al. [1993]
Ice core volcanic -r (X = 0.55 txm) averageof ice core acidityor sulfatemeasurements Robock and Free
index (IVI) [1995, 1996]
Direct radiation measurements would be the best effects of the volcanic aerosols, and Lamb in addition
technique, and combinationsof surface, aircraft, bal- used reports of atmosphericeffects. Still, up to the
loon, and satellitemeasurementshaveclearlyquantified present,all the indicesmay misssomeSouthernHemi-
the distributionsand optical propertiesof the aerosols sphere (SH) eruptions,as they may not be reported.
from the 1982 E1 Chich6n [Robock,1983a] and 1991 Even in the 1980s,the December 1981 aerosolsfrom the
Pinatubo[Stenchikov et al., 1998]eruptions(seealsotwo eruption of Nyamuragirawere observedwith lidar but
specialsectionsin Geophysical Research Letters:"Climat- were reported as the "mysterycloud" for severalyears
ic Effectsof the Eruption of E1 Chich6n,"10(11), 989- until the source was identified by reexamining the
1060, 1983;and "The Stratosphericand ClimaticEffects TOMS satelliterecord [Kruegeret al., 1996].As late as
of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption: An Initial As- 1990,volcanicaerosolswere observedwith Stratospheric
sessment," 19(2), 149-218, 1992).The brightness of the Aerosoland GasExperimentH (SAGE I1), but it hasnot
Moon during lunar eclipsescan be used as an index of been possibleto identify the source[Yue et al., 1994].
stratosphericturbidity,but suchobservations can onlybe Before 1978,with no satelliteor lidar records,there may
made about onceper year, sometimesmissingthe max- be importantmissingeruptionsevenin the NH averages.
imum aerosol loading [Keen, 1983]. Even these most This problem does not exist for individual ice core
recent large eruptions, however, have deficienciesin records,becausethey are objectivemeasuresof volcanic
their observations[Stenchikovet al., 1998]. In the past, sulfuricacid, exceptthat the farther back in time one
however, such measurementsare lacking, and indices goeswith ice cores,the fewer suchrecordsexist, and
have had to use the available surface radiation measure- each ice core record is extremely noisy and may have
ments combinedwith indirect measuressuchas reports otherproblems.Plate 6 showsthe five indices(Table 2)
of red sunsetsin diaries and paintings,and geological for the NH for the past 150 years.Here they are briefly
evidence.Geologicalmethods,basedon examinationof described.
the depositsremainingon the ground from eruptions,
canprovideusefulinformationon the total masserupted 4.1. I.amb's Dust Veil Index
and the date of the eruption,but estimatesof the atmo- Lamb [1970, 1977, 1983] createda volcanicdustveil
sphericsulfur loading are not very accurate.This "pet- index (DVI), specificallydesignedfor analyzingthe ef-
rologic method" dependson the assumptionthat the fects of volcanoes on "surface weather, on lower and
difference in sulfur concentrationbetweenglassinclu- upper atmospherictemperatures,and on the large-scale
sionsin the depositsnear the volcanoand the concen- wind circulation"[Lamb, 1970,p. 470].Lamb [1970]and
trationsin the depositsthemselvesare representativeof Pollack et al. [1976] suggested with data analysesthat
the total atmosphericsulfur injection,but this has been volcanismwas an important causeof climatechangefor
shownnot to work well for recenteruptionsfor whichwe the past500years,andRobock[1979]usedLamb'sindex
have atmosphericdata [e.g.,Luhr et al., 1984]. to force an energy-balancemodel simulation of the
For all the indicesthe problem of missingvolcanoes Little Ice Age, showingthat volcanicaerosolsplayed a
and their associateddustveilsbecomesincreasinglyim- major part in producingthe cooling during that time
portantthe farther backin time theygo.There mayeven period.The methodsusedto createthe DVI, described
have been significantvolcanicaerosolloadingsduring by Lamb [1970]and Kellyand Sear [1982],includehis-
the pastcenturythat do not appearin any or mostof the torical reports of eruptions,optical phenomena,radia-
volcanicindices.Volcanoesonly appear in most of the tion measurements (for the period 1883 onward),tem-
indices if there is a report of the eruption from the perature information, and estimatesof the volume of
ground.For recent eruptions,Lamb [1970] and Sato et ejecta.
al. [1993] used actual measurementsof the radiative Lamb's DVI has been often criticized[e.g.,Bradley,
38, 2 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS Robock: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE ß 201
1988] as havingused climaticinformation in its deriva- 1982], it had a negligiblestratosphericimpact [Robock,

tion, therebyresultingin circularreasoningif the DVI is 1981a].
usedas an index to comparewith temperaturechanges.
In fact, for only a few eruptionsbetween1763 and 1882 4.4. Sato Index
was the NH averagedDVI calculatedbased solely on
Sato et al. [1993] produced monthly NH and SH
temperatureinformation,but for severalin that period
averageindices.Their index, expressedas optical depth
the DVI wascalculatedpartially on the basisof temper-
at wavelength0.55 p•m,is basedon volcanologicalinfor-
ature information.Robock [1981b] created a modified
mation about the volume of ejectafrom Mitchell [1970]
version of Lamb's DVI which excluded temperature
from 1850 to 1882, on optical extinctiondata after 1882,
information. When used to force a climate model, the
and on satellitedata startingin 1979. The seasonaland
results did not differ significantlyfrom those using
latitudinal distributionsfor the beginningof the record
Lamb's original DVI, demonstratingthat this is not a
are uniform and offer no advantagesover the DVI and
seriousproblem.
in fact showlessdetail than the latitudinallydependent
4.2. Mitchell Index indexof Robock[1981b],who distributedthe aerosolsin
latitude with a simplediffusivemodel. The more recent
Mitchell[1970]alsoproduceda time seriesof volcanic
part of the record would presumablybe more accurate
eruptionsfor the period 1850-1968 using data from
than the DVI or VEI, as it includes actual observations
Lamb. As discussed by Robock[1978, 1981b]andSatoet
of the latitudinal and temporal extent of the aerosol
al. [1993],the Mitchell volcaniccompilationfor the NH clouds.
is more detailed than Lamb's, because Lamb excluded
all volcanoeswith DVI < 100 in producing his NH
annual averageDVI. Mitchell provided a table of the 4.5. Ice Core Volcanic Index
order of magnitude of total mass ejected from each Robockand Free [1995] examinedeight NH and six
volcano, which is a classificationsimilar to the volcanic SH ice core recordsof acidityor sulfatefor the period
explosivityindex. 1850to the presentin an attemptto identifythe volcanic
signalcommonto all records.They explainin detail the
4.3. VolcanicExplosivityIndex possibleproblemswith using these recordsas volcanic
A comprehensivesurveyof past volcanic eruptions indices,includingother sourcesof acidsand bases,other
[Simkinet al., 1981;Simkinand Siebert,1994]produced sourcesof sulfate, dating, local volcanoes,variable at-
a tabulationof the volcanicexplosivity index(VEI) [Ne- mosphericcirculation,the stochasticnature of snowfall
whalland Self,1982]for all knowneruptions,whichgives and dry deposition,mixing due to blowing snow, and
a geologicallybasedmeasureof the power of the volca- uncertaintiesin the electricalconductivitymeasuresof
nic explosion.This index has been used without any the ice. For the NH, although the individual ice core
modificationin many studies[seeRobock, 1991] as an records are, in general, not well correlated with each
index of the climatologicalimpact of volcanoes.A care- other or with any of the indices,a compositederived
ful readingof Newhalland Self[1982],however,will find from averagingthe cores, the ice core volcano index
the following quotes:"We have restrictedourselvesto (IVI), showedpromiseasa newindexof volcanicaerosol
considerationof volcanologicaldata (no atmospheric loading.This new index correlatedwell with the existing
data)..." (p. 1234)and "Sincethe abundanceof sulfate non-ice-corevolcanicindices and with high-frequency
aerosolis importantin climateproblems,VEI's mustbe temperaturerecords.Still, it is clear that high-latitude
combinedwith a compositional factorbeforeusein such volcanoesare given too much weight, and it is only
studies"(pp. 1234-1235).In their Table 1, Newhalland possibleto adjustfor them if their signalscan unambig-
Self list criteria for estimatingthe VEI in "decreasing uouslybe identified. For the SH the individualice cores
order of reliability,"and the very last criterion out of 11 and indices were better correlated. The SH IVI was
is "stratosphericinjection."For VEI of 3, stratospheric againhighlycorrelatedwith all indicesand individualice
injectionis listedas "possible,"for 4 it is "definite,"and coresbut not with high-frequency temperaturerecords.
for 5 and larger it is "significant."If one attempts to Robockand Free [1996] attemptedto extendthe IVI
work backwardand use a geologicallydeterminedVEI farther into the past. They comparedall the ice cores
to give a measure of stratosphericinjection, serious availablefor the past 2000 yearswith the DVI and the
errors can result. Not only is stratosphericinjectionthe VEI for this period. An IVI constructedfor the period
least reliable criterion for assigninga VEI, but it was 453 A.D. to the presentshowedlittle agreementwith the
never intended as a descriptionof the eruption which DVI or VEI. They determinedthat exceptfor a very few
had a VEI assignedfrom more reliable evidence.Nev- eruptions,the ice core record currently availableis in-
ertheless,Robockand Free [1995] found the VEI posi- sufficientto delineate the climatic forcing by explosive
tively correlatedwith other indices,but imperfectly.For volcanic eruptionsbefore about 1200 for the NH and
example,the Mount St. Helens eruption of 1980 has a before about 1850 for the SH. They also point out,
large VEI of 5, and while it had a large local tempera- however, that the record of past volcanism remains
ture impact [Robockand Mass, 1982;Massand Robock, buried in the ice of Greenland and Antarctica, and more
202 ß Robock' VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE 38, 2 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS
TABLE 3. Effects of Large Explosive Volcanic Eruptions on Weather and Climate
Effect Mechanism Begins Duration
Reduction of diurnal cycle blockageof shortwaveand emissionof longwave immediately 1-4 days
radiation
Reducedtropical precipitation blockageof shortwaveradiation, reducedevaporation 1-3 months 3-6 months
Summer coolingof NH tropicsand blockageof shortwaveradiation 1-3 months 1-2 years
subtropics
Stratosphericwarming stratosphericabsorptionof shortwaveand longwave 1-3 months 1-2 years
radiation
1
Winter warming of NH continents stratospheric absorptionof shortwaveand longwave • year oneor two
radiation, dynamics winters
Global cooling blockageof shortwaveradiation immediately 1-3 years
Global coolingfrom multiple eruptions blockageof shortwaveradiation immediately 10-100 years
Ozone depletion, enhancedUV dilution, heterogeneouschemistryon aerosols 1 day 1-2 years
deep coresthat analyzethe sulfur or acid contenthave other eruptions[Robocket al., 1995;Robockand Free,
the promiseof producinga reliable record of the past. 1995;Selfet al., 1997].Volcaniceruptionscan still have
a large local effect on surfacetemperaturesin regions
near the eruptionfor severaldays,as Robockand Mass
5. WEATHER AND CLIMATE RESPONSE [1982]andMassandRobock[1982]showedfor the 1980
Mount St. Helens eruption. In this section I briefly
Volcanic eruptionscan affect the climate systemon summarizetheseclimaticeffects,startingfrom the short-
manytimescales(Table 3). The greatestknowneruption est timescale.
of the past 100,000yearswasthe Toba eruptionof about
71,000yearsB.P. [Zielinskiet al., 1996],whichoccurred 5.1. Reductionof Diurnal Cycle
intriguingly closeto the beginning of a majorglaciation, The Mount St. Helens eruption in May 1980, in
and while Rampino and Self [1992] suggesteda cause WashingtonState in northwesternUnited States,was a
and effect relationship,it has yet to be established[Li very powerful lateral blast which produceda huge local
and Berger, 1997]. Many papers, as discussedin the troposphericloadingof volcanicash.In Yakima, Wash-
introduction, have suggestedthat volcanic aerosolscan ington, 135 km to the east,it was so dark that automatic
be importantcausesof temperaturechangesfor several streetlightswent on in the middle of the day. This thick
years followinglarge eruptionsand that even on a 100- aerosollayer effectivelyradiativelyisolatedthe Earth's
year timescale,they can be important when their cumu- surfacefrom the top of the atmosphere.The surfaceair
lative effects are taken into account. The effects of temperature in Yakima was 15øCfor 15 straighthours,
volcanic eruptions on climate are very significant in independentof the normal diurnal cycle (Figure 3).
analyzingthe globalwarmingproblem,asthe impactsof Robockand Mass [1982] and Mass and Robock [1982]
anthropogenic greenhouse gasesand aerosolson climate examined the errors of the model output statistics
must be evaluated against a backgroundof continued (MOS) forecastsproduced by the National Weather
natural forcingof the climatesystemfrom volcanicerup- Service. As the MOS forecasts did not include volcanic
[ions,solarvariations,and internalrandomvariations aerosolsas predictors,they were able to interpret these
from land-atmosphereand ocean-atmosphere interac- errors as the volcaniceffect. They found that the aero-
tions. solscooledthe surfaceby asmuchas 8øCin the daytime
Individuallarge eruptionscertainlyproduceglobalor but warmed the surfaceby as much as 8øC at night.
hemisphericcoolingfor 2 or 3 years [Robockand Mao, The reductionof the diurnal cycleonly lasted a cou-
1995], and this signalis now clearer.The winter follow- ple of days,until the aerosolclouddispersed.The effect
ing a large tropical eruption is warmer over the NH wasalsoobservedafter the Krakataueruptionin Batavia
continents, and this counterintuitive effect is due to (now know asJakarta),Indonesia[seeSimkinand Fiske,
nonlinearresponsethroughatmosphericdynamics[Rob- 1983, Figure 58]. While the Mount St. Helens eruption
ock and Mao, 1992; Graf et al., 1993;Mao and Robock, had a large local effecton temperature,no other impact
1998;Kirchneret al., 1999].Volcanic aerosolsprovidea was identified on precipitationor atmosphericcircula-
surface for heterogeneouschemical reactions that de- tion. Its stratosphericinput of sulfurwasvery small,and
stroy ozone, and observationsfollowing Pinatubo have hencethisvery explosiveeruptionhad a minimal impact
documentedmidlatitude ozone depletion causedby a on globalclimate [Robock,1981a].
volcaniceruption[Solomonet al., 1996;Solomon,1999].
While the large 1982-1983 E1 Nifio amplifiedjust after 5.2. SummerCooling
the 1982 E1 Chich6n eruption in Mexico, there is no It has long been known that the global averagetem-
evidenceof a causeand effectrelationshipfor thisor any perature falls after a large explosivevolcaniceruption
38, 2 / REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS Robock: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE ß 203
c
_.1._. I
i iii
II I
-T-
,,i
• o
ix)
o ..-
..,....
M•Y 1980
and there have been so few large eruptionsin the past
17 18 19 20 century.For severalrecent eruptions,Angell [1988],Ni-
Y
A • cholls [1988], and Mass and Portman [1989] demon-
K
I
M
I0 stratedthat the ENSO signalin the pastclimaticrecord
A
partially obscuresthe detectionof the volcanicsignalon
S gO
P a hemisphericannual averagebasisfor surfaceair tem-
0
• •o perature.
N
More recently,Robockand Mao [1995] removedthe
GF
RA
• ENSO signalfrom the surfacetemperaturerecord to
œL
A k •0
extractmore clearlythe seasonaland spatialpatternsof
TS
the volcanicsignalin surfacetemperaturerecords.This
0 observedsignal matches the general cooling patterns
I
S • found from GCM simulations[Hansenet al., 1988;Rob-
E
•0 ock and Liu, 1994]. Robock and Mao found, by super-
12 0 12 0 12 0 12 posing the signalsof Krakatau, Santa Maria, Katmai,
LST
Agung, E1 Chich6n, and Pinatubo, that the maximum
cooling is found approximately1 year following the
Figure 3. Time seriesof surfaceair temperaturefor Yakima
eruptions.This cooling,of 0.1ø-0.2øC,followsthe solar
and Spokane,Washington;Great Falls, Montana; and Boise,
declinationbut is displacedtowardthe NH (Figure 4);
Idaho, for May 17-20, 1980, under the plume of the 1980
Mount St. Helens eruption,from Figure 3 of Robockand Mass the maximumcoolingin NH winter is at about 10øNand
[1982].Time of arrivalof the plumeis indicatedwith an arrow. in summeris at about 40øN.This pattern is becauseof
LST is local standard time. The plume never passedover the distribution of continents:Land surfacesrespond
Boise,which is includedas a control.Note the dampingof the more quicklyto radiationperturbationsandthusthe NH
diurnalcycleafter the arrivalof the troposphericaerosolcloud. is more sensitive to the radiation reduction from volca-
nic aerosols.
Robock and Liu [1994] analyzedthe Hansen et al.
[e.g.,Humphreys,1913, 1940;Mitchell, 1961].The direct [1988] GCM simulationsand found reduced tropical
radiativeforcingof the surface,with a reductionof total precipitation for 1-2 years following large eruptions.
downward radiation, cools the surface. For example, The global hydrologicalcycleis fueled by evaporation,
Hansenet al. [1978],usinga radiative-convective climate and the coolingafter the eruptionsproducedthis effect.
model, successfullymodeled the surface cooling and They evenfound a reductionin Sahelprecipitationthat
stratosphericwarmingafter the 1963Agungeruption.In matched the observed enhancement of the Sahel
the tropicsand in the midlatitude summertheseradia- drought following the E1 Chich6n eruption, but this
tive effectsare larger than most other climaticforcings, result needs further confirmation before it can be con-
as there is more sunlightto block. In somelocationsin sidered robust.
the tropics,however,eventhe effectsof a large eruption
5.3. StratosphericHeating
like E1 Chich6n can be overwhelmedby a large E1 Nifio,
as was the case in 1983. The radiative-convective model
It haslongbeenknownthat the stratosphereis heated
studyby Vupputuriand Blanchet[1984] also simulated after injection of volcanic aerosols[e.g., Quiroz, 1983;
coolingat the surfaceand warmingin the stratosphere. Parker and Brownscombe,1983;Angell, 1997b]. As ex-
Energy-balancemodels[Schneiderand Mass, 1975; Ol- plained above,this heating is causedby absorptionof
iver, 1976;Brysonand Dittberner,1976;Miles and GiM- both near-IR solar radiation at the top of the layer and
ersleeves,1978;Robock, 1978, 1979; Gilliland, 1982; Gilli- terrestrial radiation at the bottom of the layer. Figure 5
land and Schneider,1984]have all showncoolingeffects and Plate 7 showsobservationsof lower stratospheric
for up to severalyears after major eruptions.An early temperaturefor the past20 years.Two strongsignalscan
zonally averageddynamicclimate model [MacCracken be seen.After the 1982E1 Chich6neruptionthe globally
and Luther, 1984] and GCM studiesby Hunt [1977], averaged stratospherictemperature rose by about IøC
Hansenet al. [1988, 1992, 1996],Rind et al. [1992], and for about 2 years. After the 1991 Pinatubo eruption a
Pollacket al. [1993]alsoshowedvolcaniccoolingeffects. warmingof equallengthbut abouttwicethe amplitudeis
The problem of detectionand attributionof a volca- clearlyvisible.These large warmingsare superimposed
nic signal in the past is the same as the problem of on a downward trend in stratospherictemperature
identifyinga greenhousesignalin the past:identifyinga caused by ozone depletion and increased CO2 [Ra-
uniquefingerprintof the forcingand separatingout the maswamyet al., 1996;Vinnikovet al., 1996].This cooling,
effects of other potential forcings. It is necessaryto at 10 timesthe rate of troposphericwarmingfor the past
separatethe volcanicsignalfrom that of other simulta- century,is a clearsignalof anthropogenicimpactson the
neousclimaticvariationsbecausethe climatic signalof climate system.
volcaniceruptionsis of approximatelythe same ampli- Plate 7 showsthe stratospherictemperaturessepa-
tude as that of E1 Nifio-SouthernOscillation(ENSO) rated by latitude bands.After the 1982 E1 Chich6nand
38 2 / REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS Robock: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE ß 205
60N
ß-0
'" '4 \ ,',",.... 0 2 .-, ' "'V' ' ' '•' ": ..... " ' :'ø ' ;"" ; '
50N :,,
.,', :-o.2.,'
IO,.2/
40Nlo:, i '"½.,' 4½, • o-' i / ¾,/i' !..,•',.i",ii ø:':•/ i } :'.o.:•.
SON
j
ß
: : : : :
: : . :
•ON,
•.
20S-!.
-o.,
"' : :";
......
' : : "'::• : : 0 .......
•"''
-
ß
",
,'.";"
,,
',, .' D :o•
::•:;': ;: :::::
: ""ø?!•-"
"'
: : : ::"'/ -',/'/::'œ:2-',:
:)?:,'.:,-.•'•
,,...,::,,v,.',.
...... :::,3,6•2 ,.
...... -• -\;'.-03,;:•)•",::; '
..... -0 '• •:--:'-',
;•'ß::;f::/'::.
.... '..
......,.:---o-,,.
50S -
....ß-'= . .. ,. ......
.,
:' ;,• ,'.'•'
-5 -4
........
-,.3
-œ0.2 '---
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-2
ß
,,.,.,
-1
':-0 1•',•'., "•,
..............
0
., -....
;","
1
,'. ,.-, .... ;,- - . .
2 3
--. '-'e,-,..
4 5
-,
Log (years)
Figure 4. Zonal averagesurfaceair temperatureanomalies,averagedfor the six largestvolcaniceruptions

of the pastcentury.Anomalies(øC) are with respectto the mean of the 5-yearperiodbefore eacheruption,
with the seasonalcycleremoved.Values significantlydifferent (95% level) from 0øC are shaded.Contour
interval is 0.1øC,with the 0øCinterval left out and negativecontoursdashed.From Figure 6 of Robockand
Mao [1995]. '
1991Pinatuboeruptionsthe tropicalbands(30øS-30øN), 5.4.1. Observations. It was first suggestedby

shownby the greenand black curves,warmedmore than Groisman [1985], with reference to previous Russian
the 30øN-90øNband (blue curve), producingan en- studies, that warm winters over central Russia were a
hanced pole-to-equatortemperature gradient. The re- consequenceof large volcaniceruptions.Using surface ß
sultingstrongerpolar vortex producesthe tropospheric air temperaturedata for stationsin Europe (including
winter warming describednext. the Europeanpart of Russia)and northeasternNorth
America for averagesof two or three winters after the
5.4. Winter Warming volcanic years of 1815, 1822, 1831, 1835, 1872, 1883,
Robock [1981b, 1984b] used an energy-balancecli- 1902, 1912, and 1963, he showeda significantwarming
mate model to examine the seasonal and latitudinal over the central European part of Russiaand insignifi-
responseof the climate systemto the Mount St. Helens cant changesin the other regions,includingcoolingover
and E1 Chich6n eruptionsand found that the maximum northeasternNorth America. In an update, Groisman
surfacecoolingwas in the winter in the polar regionsof [1992] examinedthe winter patterns after the 1982 E1
both hemispheres.This was due to the positivefeedback Chich6nand 1991 Pinatuboeruptionsand found warm-
of sea ice, which lowered the thermal inertia and en- ing over Russia again but found warming over north-
hancedthe seasonalcycleof coolingand warmingat the eastern North America.
poles[Robock,1983b].Energy-balance models,however, By averagingover severalwintersand only examining
are zonallyaveragedand parameterizeatmosphericdy- part of the hemisphere,Groisman [1992] did not dis-
namicsin terms of temperaturegradients.Thus they do coverthe completewinter warmingpattern but did in-
not allow nonlinear dynamical responseswith zonal spireother studies.His explanationof the warmingover
structure. While the sea ice/thermal inertia feedback is Russia as due to enhancedzonal winds bringingwarm
indeed part of the behavior of the climate system,we maritime air from the north Atlantic over the continent
now know that an atmosphericdynamicalresponseto was correct,but he explainedtheseenhancedwinds as
large volcaniceruptionsdominatesthe NH winter cli- due to a larger pole-to-equatortemperature gradient
mate response,producingtroposphericwarming rather causedby polar cooling resulting from the eruptions.
than an enhancedcoolingover NH continents. However, if the larger pole-to-equatortemperaturegra-
206 ß Robock: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE 38 2 / REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS
GlobalAvg. Lower StratosphericTemp. Anomalies

with respect to 1984-1990 mean
1.4
1.2
• 0.8
-• o.6
o
0.4
• 0.2
(D 0
I-- -0.2
-0.4-
-0.6-
-0.8
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Figure 5. Globalaveragemonthlystratospheric temperatures

from microwave soundingunit satelliteobserva-
tions,channel4 [Spencer et al., 1990](updatedin 1999).Anomalies(øC) are with respectto the 1984-1990
nonvolcanic period.Timesof 1982E1Chich6nand 1991Pinatuboeruptionsare denotedwith arrows.Yearson
abscissaindicateJanuaryof that year.
Lower Stratospheric Temp. Anomalies - Latitude Bands

with respect to 1984-1990 meon
1.5
.•- 0.5
• 0--
-2
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
dientwascausedby polar cooling,whywere the temper- sponsein the climate systemto the radiative forcing
atures in the polar region over Eurasia warm and not from the eruptions.The direct radiativeresponsein the
cool? Why was northeasternNorth America cool after winter wouldbe a smallcooling,asit is winter becauseof
someeruptionsand warm after others? the low insolation.At the pole the surface radiative
Lough and Fritts [1987], usingtree-ring data and se- forcingis actuallywarming,asthere is a smallincreasein
lecting 24 volcanicyearsbetween 1602 and 1900, found downwardlongwaveradiation.
winter warming over western North America for the 5.4.2. lheory. The winter warmingpatternsde-
averageof years 0-2 after the eruptionyears.The pat- scribed above are closelyrelated to troposphericand
tern they found is quite similar to that during ENSO stratosphericcirculation.Both Perlwitzand Graf [1995]
years, and they made no attempt to correct for this and Kodera et al. [1996] examinedthe observationsof
factor. They also found springand summercoolingin NH winter stratosphericand troposphericcirculationfor
the centralUnited Statesand summerwarmingover the the past 40 years and found that the dominant mode of
United Stateswestcoast.They did not useanyvolcanoes circulationof the stratosphereis a strongpolar vortex
south of 10øS,believing them not important for NH (polar night jet), which occurssimultaneously with a
temperaturevariations. 500-mbarpattern with a low anomaly over Greenland
Robockand Mao [1992] were the first to systemati- and high anomaliesover North America, Europe, and
cally examinethe global surfaceair temperaturerecord east Asia. The associatedsurfaceair temperature pat-
for the NH winter warming phenomenon.They exam- tern is exactlythat shownin Plate 8. Perlwitz and Graf
ined the winter surfaceair temperature patterns after call this pattern the "baroclinicmode." The same pat-
the 12 largesteruptionsof the pastcentury,removedthe tern had previouslybeen identifiedasthe North Atlantic
ENSO signal,and found a consistentpattern of warming Oscillation(NAO) [Hurrell,1995,and referencesthere-
over the continentsand coolingover the oceansand the in] and is now also called the Arctic Oscillation(AO)
Middle East,when combiningthe firstwinter after trop- [Thompsonand Wallace,1998, 2000a,b].
ical eruptionsand the secondwinter after high-latitude Both studies also found a second mode with weak
eruptions.Robock and Mao [1995] showed that this stratosphericanomaliesbut a strongmidtropospheric
pattern is mainly due to the tropicaleruptions. pattern of wave anomalies generated in the tropical
The winter warming pattern is illustratedin Plate 8,Pacific and propagating acrossNorth America. This
which showsthe global lower tropospherictemperature secondbarotropicmode [Perlwitzand Graf, 1995] has
anomaly pattern for the NH winter of 1991-1992, fol- previouslybeen identified as the PacificNorth America
lowingthe 1991 Mount Pinatuboeruption.This pattern teleconnection
pattern associatedwith ENSO [Wallace
is closelycorrelated with the surface air temperature and Gutzler,1981]. It is confinedto the Western Hemi-
pattern where the data overlap, but the satellite data sphere and only influences extratropical regions over
allow global coverage. The temperature over North North America. Kitoh et al. [1996] found the samepat-
America, Europe, and Siberia was much warmer than terns in a GCM experiment,with the baroclinicmode
normal, and that over Alaska, Greenland, the Middle dominating and no relationship between the ENSO
East, and China was cold. In fact, it was so cold that mode and stratosphericcirculation.
winter that it snowedin Jerusalem,a very unusual oc- The picture that emergesis one of a characteristic
currence. Coral at the bottom of the Red Sea died that baroclinicmode, or NAO or AO circulationpattern, in
winter [Genin et al., 1995], becausethe water at the the troposphere(Figure 6) that producesanomalously
surfacecooled and convectivelymixed the entire depth warm surfaceair temperaturesover the continentsin the
of the water.The enhancedsupplyof nutrientsproduced NH winter. It is a natural mode of oscillation of the
anomalouslylarge algal and phytoplankton blooms, winter atmosphericcirculation,so externalstratospheric
which smotheredthe coral. This coral death had only forcing apparentlycan push the systeminto this mode
happened before in winters following large volcanic without too much trouble. As Perlwitzand Graf [1995]
eruptions[Geninet al., 1995]. explainin detail, the theoreticalexplanationis that the
While the tropicalregionscoolin all seasons[Robock strongpolar vortextrapsthe verticallypropagatingplan-
and Mao, 1995] (Figure 4), in the winter following a etary waves,which constructivelyinterfere to produce
large eruption,the zonal averagetemperaturechangeis this stationary wave pattern. When there is a strong
small,but the wave pattern of anomaliesproduceslarge polar night jet, it preventssuddenstratosphericwarm-
warm and cool anomalies,indicating a dynamical re- ings[Mcintyre,1982]later in the winter and perpetuates
Plate 7. (opposite)Stratospherictemperatureanomaliesfor four equal-areazonalbands,shownas5-month

runningmeans,from microwavesoundingunit satelliteobservations,channel4 [Spencer et al., 1990](updated
in 1999).Anomalies(øC)arewith respectto the 1984-1990nonvolcanicperiod.Timesof 1982E1Chich6nand
1991Pinatuboeruptionsare denotedwith arrows.Note that after theseeruptionsthe tropicalbandswarmed
more than the 30ø-90øNband, producingan enhancedpole-to-equatortemperaturegradient.Years on
abscissaindicateJanuaryof that year.
itself throughout the winter, keeping the polar lower

stratospherecold in the isolatedvortexcenter.When the
pattern occursnaturallywithout externalforcing,it more
frequently breaks down due to these sudden strato-
sphericwarmings.
The winter warmingcirculationresponseoccursafter
all large tropical eruptions that have occurred since
radiosondeobservationsbegan,Agung in 1963, E1 Chi-
ch6n in 1982, and Pinatuboin 1991 [Kodera,1994]. It
shouldbe noted, however,that other forcingscan also
work in the same direction. One is the l 1-year solar
cycle,as the l 1-year cyclein ultraviolet flux and ozone
amount combine to produce anomalousstratospheric
heating and circulation [Kodera et al., 1991; Robock,
1996a;Haigh, 1996;Shindellet al., 1999].Thesecircula-
tion changeshelp to explain the solar cycle-climate
relationsdiscoveredby Labitzke and van Loon [1988]
and vanLoon andLabitzke[1990],but their patternsare
still not completelyunderstood.Another forcing is sim-
ply globalwarming,which increasesthe thicknessof the
tropical tropospheremore than at higher latitudes,also
enhancing the pole-to-equator gradient [Graf et al.,
1995]. Ozone depletion in the lower stratospherehas
producedmore coolingat the poles [Ramaswamyet al.,
b 1996], also enhancingthe pole-to-equatorgradientand
producinga trend in the strengthof the polar vortex
[Graf et al., 1995]. These global warming and ozone
depletiontrendshelp explainthe observedtrend in the
NAO [Hurrell,1995;Hurrelland vanLoon, 1997]and the
AO [Thompsonand Wallace,1998, 2000b] of the past
30
several decades and in the related cold ocean-warm land
.% patternof Wallaceet al. [1995,1996].Nevertheless,after
a large tropicalvolcaniceruption, the forcingis so large
that it overwhelms these more subtle trends and domi-
nates the NH winter circulationof the succeedingyear.
The connectionbetweenstratosphericcirculationand
surface air temperature anomaliesin the NH winter
after a large tropical volcanic eruption is illustrated
schematicallyin Plate 9. The heating of the tropical
lower stratosphereby absorptionof terrestrialand solar
near-IR radiation(Plate 5) expandsthat layer and pro-
ducesand enhancedpole-to-equatortemperaturediffer-
ence. The strengthened polar vortex traps the wave
energyof the troposphericcirculation,and the station-
ary wave pattern known as the NAO or AO dominates
Figure 6. (a) Observed 500-mbar geopotential height the winter circulation,producingthe winter warming.
(meters)anomalypatternfor the 1991-1992NH winter (DJF)
5.4.3. Modeling. To testthe abovetheory,Grafet
followingthe 1991 Mount Pinatuboeruption.Data are from
the National Centersfor EnvironmentalPredictionreanalysis
al. [1993] presentedresultsfrom a perpetual January
[Kalnayet al., 1996], and anomaliesare with respectto the GCM calculationof the effectsof stratosphericaerosols
period1986-1990.(b) Generalcirculationmodel(GCM) sim- on climatethat showedwinter warmingover both north-
ulationsfrom Kirchneret al. [1999]. Shownis the difference ern Eurasia and Canada and cooling over the Middle
between the two GCM ensembles with and without strato- East, northern Brazil, and the United States.They used
sphericaerosols.In both panels,regionssignificantlydifferent forcing with a stratosphericaerosolloading in the pat-
from 0 at the 80% levelare shaded,with positivevaluesshaded tern of the E1 Chich6n volcano and the low-resolution
lighter and negativevalues shadeddarker. The simulations (T21) ECHAM2 GCM, and the circulationresponsein
reproducedthe observedpattern of circulationanomalies,but Januaryfollowingvolcaniceruptionswaswell simulated
not perfectly. [Kirchnerand Graf, 1995].Kirchneret al. [1999]repeated
this calculationin more detail with an improvedmodel,
in an experimentwith better definedaerosolparameters stratosphericheating during the winter of 1783-1984

[Stenchikovet al., 1998], interactivecalculationof the and a reduced pole-to-equatortemperature gradient.
aerosol radiative effects, and an improved GCM This theory suggeststhat the opposite phase of the
(ECHAM4) [Roeckneret al., 1996], includingthe full pattern discussedabove was produced, with a large
seasonalcycle.They were successful in reproducingthe negativeNAO anomaly.This suggestionis now being
observedcirculation(Figure6) and surfacetemperature testedwith GCM experiments.
patterns (Figure 7) after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption
when usingclimatologicalseasurfacetemperatures.Al- 5.5. tittle Ice Age
thoughthe simulatedpatternsdid not exactlymatchthe Sincevolcanicaerosolsnormallyremain in the strato-
observations,the positiveheight anomaliesover North sphere no more than 2 or 3 years, with the possible
AmericaandEurope andnegativeanomaliesoverBaffin exceptionof extremelylarge eruptionssuch as that of
Island and the Middle East (Figure 6) are in the right Toba, approximately71,000 years ago [Bekki et al.,
location,which correspondto warm and cold anomalies 1996], the radiative forcing from volcanoesis interan-
overthe samelocations(Figure7). The simulationswere nual rather than interdecadal in scale. A series of volca-
not as successfulwhen using the actual observedsea nic eruptions could, however, raise the mean optical
surface temperatures,which included a moderate E1 depthsignificantlyover a longerperiod and therebygive
Nifio. Thus GCMs have not yet demonstratedan ability rise to a decadal-scalecooling. If a period of active
to successfully simulate the completeresponseof the volcanismendsfor a significantinterval,the adjustment
climatesystemto surfaceand stratosphericforcing.This of the climate systemto no volcanicforcingcould pro-
is an area of active current research,includingthe new duce warming. This was the casefor the 50 years from
Pinatubo Simulation Task of the GCM-Reality Inter- 1912 to 1963, when global climate warmed. Further-
comparisonProjectfor the Stratosphere(GRIPS) [Paw- more, it is possiblethat feedbacksinvolving ice and
son et al., 2000]. ocean,which act on longer timescales,could transform
Mao and Robock [1998] conductedanother model the short-termvolcanicforcinginto a longer-termeffect.
test of the winter warmingpattern. Patternssimilar to As a result, the possiblerole of volcanoesin decadal-
that in Plate 8 appeared over North America in the scaleclimate changeremainsunclear.In particular,the
winters following the 1982 E1 Chich6n and 1991 Pina- current centuryis the warmestof the past five, with the
tubo eruptions,which were both duringE1 Nifios. This previousfour centuriesearningthe moniker of the Little
led someto suggestthat the temperaturepatternswere Ice Age due to its coldness.This period has never been
producedby the PacificNorth American teleconnection satisfactorilyexplained.What was the role of volcanism
pattern connectedwith the E1 Nifio. As both forcings in this climate change?
were actingat the sametime, observations alone cannot Until recently,SchneiderandMass[1975]andRobock
distinguishthe causeof the pattern. Mao and Robock [1979]were the onlymodelsto usevolcanicchronologies
took advantageof the designof the AtmosphericModel to investigateperiodsbefore the midnineteenthcentury.
IntercomparisonProject (AMIP) [Gates,1992], which At the same time, they examined the hypothesisthat
was conductedfor the period 1979-1988. Thirty differ- solarconstantvariationslinked to the sunspotcyclewere
ent GCMs simulatedthe weatherof this 10-yearperiod, alsoan importantcauseof climatechangeon this time-
forced only with observed sea surface temperatures scale. Schneider and Mass used a zero-dimensional en-
(SSTs), which includedtwo E1 Nifios, 1982-1983 and ergy-balancemodel and found agreement of several
1986-1987. No volcanicaerosolforcingwas used in the large-scalefeatures of their simulationswith climate
simulations, so the results of the simulation should re- records. They concluded that while volcanoes had a
flect ENSO patternsonly. Mao and Robock found that weak relationshipto climate,the solar-climateeffectwas
the North American patterns simulatedby the models not proven.Robockuseda latitudinallyresolvedenergy-
were very similar for both E1 Nifio winters. They were balance model with volcanic [Mitchell, 1970] and solar
very close to the observedpattern for 1986-1987, a forcing (proportional to the envelope of the sunspot
winter with only E1 Nifio forcing and no volcanicaero- number) and found the volcanic forcing explained a
sols,but did not resemblethe observedpattern of 1982- much larger share of the temperaturevariability since
1983 (Plate 8) at all. Thereforethey concludedthat the 1620 than did the solar series. Both the Schneider and
major warming over the North American and Eurasian Mass and Robock models used a simple mixed-layer
continents in the 1982-1983 NH winter is not an ENSO- ocean.
dominantmode, but rather a pattern associatedwith the Three new studies[Crowleyand Kim, 1999;Free and
enhancedstratosphericpolar vortexby the larger equa- Robock,1999;DMrrigo et al., 1999] have now made use
tor-to-pole temperaturegradientproducedby volcanic of new volcanochronologies,new solar constantrecon-
sulfateaerosolsin the stratosphere. structions,and new reconstructionsof climate change
Franklin [1784] noted that the winter in Europe fol- for the Little Ice Age to addressthis problem again.
lowing the 1783 Lakagigareruptionwas extremelycold They used upwelling-diffusionenergy-balanceclimate
rather than warm. BecauseLakagigarwas a high-lati- models to simulate the past 600 years with volcanic,
tude eruption, it could have produced high-latitude solar, and anthropogenicforcings and compared the
75N
60N
45N
30N
15N
EQ
180
Figure 7. Temperaturepatternsfor NH winter (DJF) 1991-1992followingthe Mount Pinatuboeruption.

(a) Observedanomalies(with respectto the averagefor 1986-1990)from channel2LT of the microwave
soundingunit satelliteobservations(same as in Plate 8), representativeof the lower troposphere.(b)
Anomaliessimulatedby a GCM forcedwith observedPinatuboaerosols[Kirchneret al., 1999] expressedas
GCM simulatedchannel2LT temperatures.Shownare differencesbetweenthe two GCM ensembles with and
without stratosphericaerosols.Contour interval is IøC, and shadingis as in Figure 6. The locationsof
anomalouswarm and cold regionsare quite closeto thoseobserved.
resultswith paleoclimaticreconstructions, mainly based Ropelewski,1992]. Owing to the coincidenceof the be-
on tree rings.They conclude,subjectto the limitationsof ginningof the ENSO eventand the E1Chich6neruption,
the forcingand validationdata sets,that volcanicerup- severalsuggestionswere made as to a causeand effect
tions and solarvariationswere both important causesof relationship,evengoingsofar as to suggestthat mostE!
climate changein the Little Ice Age. Furthermore, the Nifios were causedby volcaniceruptions.
warming of the past century cannot be explained by How could a volcaniceruption produce an E1 Nifio?
natural causesand can be explainedby warming from Would the mechanisminvolve the stratosphericaerosol
anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Further work is cloud, troposphericaerosols,or the dynamicalresponse
neededin this area, however,linking ocean-atmosphere to surfacetemperature changes?What is the evidence
interactionswith better volcanicand solar chronologies. based on the past record of volcanic eruptions and.
ENSO events? Was the simultaneous occurrence of the
E1 Chich6n eruption and large E1 Nifio just a coinci-
6. DO VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS PRODUCE dence,or was it an exampleof a mechanismthat works
EL NINOS? after many other large eruptions?
Hirono [1988] proposed a plausible mechanism
The April 1982 E1 Chich6nvolcaniceruptionwas the whereby troposphericaerosolsfrom the E1 Chich6n
largestof the centuryup to that time. Beginningin April eruption would induce an atmosphericdynamical re-
1982, as indicatedby the SouthernOscillationIndex, an sponseproducinga trade wind collapse,and the trade
unpredictedand unprecedentedE1 Nifio began, result- wind reduction would produce an oceanographicre-
ing in the largestwarm ENSO eventof the centuryup to sponsewhich affected the timing and strength of the
that time, with recordwarm temperaturesin the eastern resultingE1 Nifio. He suggestedthat large tropospheric
equatorial Pacific Ocean and remote temperature and aerosolsfalling out of the E1 Chich6n eruption cloud
precipitationanomaliesin distantlocations[Halpertand into the regionwest of Mexico in the eastPacificin the
38, 2 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS Robock:VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSAND CLIMATEß 211
z z z o (/• (/)
o o o ta.I o o
212 ß Robock' VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE 38, 2 / REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS
.. .• Aerosol
===============================
.•..
.::i:!:!:i:i:i:i:!:i:i:i:i:!:i:i:i:!:i:i:i:!:i:!:i:i:!:•:i:i:i:!:i:!-
'.>:.:.:.:.:.>:.:.:..'.:.:.:.:.:-:.:->:.:-:-:-:.:-:.:q•-:-:-:-:-:-'
. .....>¾:¾•¾..-..:..:..-.>:.-.---
'
50mbbefore
heating
ß
. -. -. -' -' -' Tropopause

Jet stream ams
i i
AerosolheatingincreasesEquator-Pole
temperaturegradient,increasing
heightgradient,and makingjet stream
(polar vortex) stronger.
II
North Pole
Tropics
Strongervortexamplifies"North
Atlantic Oscillation" circulation
pattern,producingwinter warming.III I II
Winter1991-92(DJF)SurfaceAir Temperature
Anomalies
(øC)
•! - .
Plate 9. Schcmaticdiagramof howtropicallowerstratospheric heatingfrom volcanicaerosolsproducesthe

winter warming temperaturepattern at the surface.The map at the bottom is surfaceair temperature
anomalies(with respect to 1961-1990) for the 1991-1992 NH winter (DJF) following the 1991 Mount
Pinatuboeruption.The green curvesindicatethe anomaloustroposphericwind patternsresponsiblefor
horizontaladvectionthat producedthesetemperatureanomalies.This temperaturepatternis very similarto
the one shownin Plate 8 but is for the surface.Data courtesyof P. Jones.
38, 2 / REVIEWSOF GEOPHYSICS Robock:VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSAND CLIMATE ß 213
weeks after the eruption would absorbterrestrial and Robock and Free [1995] calculated the correlation
solar radiation,heating the atmosphereand inducinga betweenthe SouthernOscillationIndex [Ropelewski and
low-pressureregion,changingthe troposphericcircula- Jones,1987], the best availableindex of past E1 Nifios,
tion. The wind spiralinginto the low would reducethe and everyvolcanicindexdescribedabove,aswell aseach
northeasttrade winds,producingan oceanographicre- individual ice core record that was available, and in no
sponsethatwouldcausean E1Nifio.Robocket al. [1995] casesfound significantcorrelations.Self et al. [1997]
usedthe LawrenceLivermore National Laboratoryver- recentlyexaminedevery large eruption of the past 150
sion of the Community Climate Model, Version 1 yearsand showedthat in no caseswas there an E1 Nifio
(CCM1) GCM to investigatethis mechanismwith radi- that resultedas a consequence. Therefore, as concluded
ative forcing from the observedaerosol distribution. by Robocket al. [1995],the timing and locationof the E1
Indeed, there was a trade wind collapseinducedin the Chich6n eruption and the large ENSO event that fol-
atmosphere,but it wastoo late andin the wrongposition lowed were coincidental, and there is no evidence that
to have producedthe observedE1 Nifio. large volcaniceruptionscan produce E1 Nifios.
It is interestingto note that when this study was
beginning,E. Rasmusson, one of the world'sexpertson
E1 Nifios and whose office was next to mine at the 7. EFFECTS ON STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
Universityof Maryland, the week before the 1991 Pina-
tubo eruption excitedlywalked down the hall announc- Volcanic aerosolshave the potential to change not
ing that a new E1 Nifio wasbeginning.Thus althoughin only the radiative flux in the stratosphere,but also its
1991 there was again a large volcaniceruption at the chemistry.The most important chemicalchangesin the
sametime as a large E1 Nifio, the E1Nifio occurredfirst. stratosphereare related to O3, which has significant
In fact, Rampino et al. [1979] once suggestedthat cli- effectson ultraviolet and longwaveradiative fluxes.The
matic changecouldcausevolcaniceruptionsby changing reactionswhich produceand destroyO3 dependon the
the stress on the Earth's crust as the snow and ice UV flux, the temperature,and the presenceof surfaces
loading shiftsin responseto the climate. More recent for heterogeneousreactions,all of which are changedby
evidenceof relativelylarge changesin the Earth's rota- volcanicaerosols[Crutzen,1976; Tabazadehand Turco,
tion rate after E1 Nifios, in responseto the enhanced 1993; Tie and Brasseur,1995; Tie et al., 1996; Solomon et
atmosphericcirculation[Marcuset al., 1998],couldpro- al., 1996]. The heterogeneouschemistryresponsiblefor
duce an additional lithosphericstress.These specula- the ozone hole over Antarctica in October each year
tions have not been proven,however,and further study occurson polar stratosphericcloudsof water or nitric
is limited by availablelong-termrecords. acid, which only occur in the extremely cold isolated
Schattenet al. [1984] and Strong[1986]suggested that springvortex in the SouthernHemisphere.These reac-
the atmosphericdynamicresponseto the stratospheric tions make anthropogenicchlorine availablefor chemi-
heating from the volcanicaerosolswould perturb the cal destructionof O3. Sulfate aerosolsproducedby vol-
Hadley cell circulationin the tropicsin sucha way as to caniceruptionscan alsoprovidethesesurfacesat lower
reducethe trade windsand triggeran E1 Nifio. Schatten latitudes and at all times of the year.
et al.'s model, however,was zonally symmetricand did Solomon[1999] describesthe effects of aerosolson
not explain why the responsewould be so rapid and ozonein great detail. Here only a brief mention of some
mainly in the Pacific. of the issues related to volcanic eruptions is made.
Handler[1986]suggested that the climaticresponseto Quantifying the effects of volcanic aerosolson ozone
coolingover continentsproducesa monsoon-likecircu- amount is difficult, as chemical and dynamical effects
lation that somehowproducesE1 Nifios, but he did not occursimultaneously and the effectsare not muchlarger
clearly explainthe physicalmechanismor demonstrate than natural variability. Nevertheless, attempts were
that a model can producethis effect.His claim to find a made after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption to estimatethe
statisticallink betweenoccurrenceof volcaniceruptions effectson ozone.Column O3 reductionof about5% was
and E1 Nifios is flawed in severalways.As there have observedin midlatitudes [Zerefoset al., 1994; Coffey,
been many volcaniceruptionsin the past few centuries 1996],rangingfrom about2% in the tropicsto about7%
and E1Nifiosoccurevery4-7 years,it is possibleto find in the midlatitudes [Angell, 1997a]. Therefore ozone
an eruptionclosein time to each E1 Nifio. However, to depletion in the aerosol cloud was much larger and
establisha cause and effect relationship,the eruption reachedabout20% [Grantet al., 1992;Grant, 1996].The
must be of the proper type and at the proper time to chemicalozone destructionis lesseffectivein the trop-
producethe claimedresponse.Handler'sstudiesdid not ics,but lifting of low ozoneconcentrationlayerswith the
use a proper index of stratosphericsulfateloading.He aerosolcloud [Kinneet al., 1992] causesa fast decrease
selectedvery small eruptionsthat could not have had a in ozone mixing ratio in the low latitudes. Similarly,
climaticeffect, and he was not carefulwith the timing of subsidenceat high latitudesincreasesozone concentra-
the eruptionshe chose,claimingeruptionsthat occurred tion there and masks chemical destruction.
after particularENSO eventsor long before them were Decrease of the ozone concentration causes less UV
their causes. absorptionin the stratosphere,which modifiesthe aero-
sol heating effect [Kinne et al., 1992; RosenfieMet al., matic responserepresent a large perturbation to the
1997]. The net effect of volcanicaerosolsis to increase climate systemover a relativelyshort period, observa-
surfaceUV [Vogelmann et al., 1992].The subsequent03 tions and the simulatedmodel responsescan serve as
depletionallowsthroughmore UV than is backscattered important analogs for understandingthe climatic re-
by the aerosols. sponseto other perturbations.While the climatic re-
Kirchneret al. [1999] calculateda January1992 global sponseto explosivevolcaniceruptionsis a usefulanalog
average70-mbarheatingof about2.7 K from the aerosol for some other climatic forcings,there are also limita-
heating following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption as com- tions.
paredwith the observedheatingof only1.0 K. The GCM The theory of "nuclearwinter," the climaticeffectsof
calculationsdid not include considerationof the quasi- a massiveinjectionof sootaerosolsinto the atmosphere
biennialoscillation(QBO) or 03 effects.They then con- from firesfollowinga globalnuclearholocaust[Turcoet
ducted another calculation to see the effects of the al., 1983, 1990;Robock,1984c,1996b],includesupward
observed Pinatubo-induced 0 3 depletion on strato- injectionof the aerosolsto the stratosphere, rapidglobal
spheric heating and found that it would have cut the dispersalof stratosphericaerosols,heatingof the strato-
calculatedheating by 1 K. If the GCM had considered sphere, and cooling at the surface under this cloud.
the observedQBO coolingand this 03 effect, the calcu- Becausethis theory cannot be tested in the real world,
lated heatingwould agree quite well with observations. volcaniceruptionsprovide analogsthat supportthese
The volcaniceffecton 03 chemistryis a newphenom- aspectsof the theory.
enon, dependent on anthropogenicchlorine in the Even though a climate model successfully simulates
stratosphere.While we have no observations,the 1963 the responseto a volcaniceruption [e.g.,Hansenet al.,
Agung eruption probably did not deplete 03, as there 1992], this does not guaranteethat it can accurately
was little anthropogenicchlorine in the stratosphere. simulatethe responseto greenhousegases.The abilityof
Becauseof the Montreal protocoland subsequentinter- the samemodel to respondto decadal-and longer-scale
national agreements,chlorineconcentrationhaspeaked responsesto climate forcingsis not tested,as the inter-
in the stratosphereand is now decreasing.Therefore, for annualtime-dependentresponseof the climatesystem
the next few decades,large volcaniceruptionswill have dependsonly on the thermal inertia of the oceanicmixed
effects similar to Pinatubo, but after that, these 0 3 layer combinedwith the climate model sensitivity.The
effectswill go away and volcaniceruptionswill have a long-termresponseto globalwarmingdependson accu-
stronger effect on atmosphericcirculationwithout the rate simulation of the deep ocean circulation, and a
negativefeedbackproducedby 03 depletion. volcanoexperimentdoesnot allow an evaluationof that
portion of the model. If a volcano experiment [e.g.,
Kirchneret al., 1999] simulatesthe winter warming re-
8. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION sponseof a climate model to volcanicaerosols,then we
can infer the ability of a model to simulate the same
Large volcaniceruptionsinject sulfur gasesinto the dynamicalmechanismsin responseto increasedgreen-
stratosphere,which convert to sulfate aerosolswith an housegases,ozone depletion,or solarvariations.
e-folding residencetimescaleof about 1 year. The cli- As climate models improve, through programslike
mate responseto large eruptionslastsfor severalyears. the GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for the
The aerosol cloud producescooling at the surfacebut Stratosphere(GRIPS) of the StratosphericProcesses
heatingin the stratosphere.For a tropical eruption this and their Relation to Climate (SPARC) program[Paw-
heatingis larger in the tropicsthan in the high latitudes, son et al., 2000], they will improvetheir ability to simu-
producing an enhanced pole-to-equator temperature late the climatic responseto volcanic eruptions and
gradient and, in the Northern Hemisphere winter, a other causesof climate change.
strongerpolar vortex and winter warming of Northern
Hemispherecontinents.This indirectadvectiveeffect on
temperatureis strongerthan the radiativecoolingeffect
that dominates at lower latitudes and in the summer. GLOSSARY
The volcanic aerosolsserve as surfacesfor heteroge-
neous chemical reactions that destroy stratospheric 500-mbar pattern: Wind circulationin the middle
ozone,which lowersultravioletabsorptionand reduces of the troposphere,typicallyat a heightof about5.5 km,
the radiativeheatingin the lower stratosphere.Sincethis which is indicativeof the generaldirectionof transport
chemicaleffect dependson the presenceof anthropo- of energy and moisture. Average surface pressureis
genic chlorine, it has only becomeimportant in recent about1000mbar,equalto l0s Pa.
decades.There is no evidencethat volcaniceruptions Advectiveeffect: Changesproducedby horizontal
produceE1 Nifio events,but the climaticconsequences transportof energyby windsas opposedto thosecaused
of E1 Nifio and volcaniceruptionsare similar and must by radiation.
be separatedto understandthe climaticresponseto each. Aerosol: A liquid droplet or solid particle sus-
Becausevolcaniceruptionsand their subsequentcli- pended in a gas.
Apparenttransmission: Amountof total solarradi- measures backscattered ultraviolet radiation in several

ation transmittedto the surfacecorrectedfor geometry wavelengths,from whichthe total columnamountof 03
and time of day of measurements. and SO2 can be derived.
December-January-February (DJF): Winter in the
Northern Hemisphere.
e-foldingdecaytime: The amountof time it takes ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. I thank Georgiy Stenchikov,
forananomaly
to decaytoe- • of itsinitialperturbation.Ellsworth Dutton, Steven Self, and the reviewers for valuable
This is typicallytaken to be the definition of the time- commentson the manuscript.My work on volcaniceruptions
and climate has been supportedby NSF and NASA for more
scaleof a logarithmicprocess.
than 20 years,most recentlyby NSF grant ATM 99-96063 and
Glass inclusions: Pocketsof liquid or gas inside
NASA grant NAG 5-7913. I particularly thank Jay Fein, Ken
glassformed when molten rock cools after a volcanic
Bergman,and Lou Walter for their supportas programman-
eruption. agers.I thank Clifford Mass, Michael Matson, JianpingMao,
Heterogeneouschemical reactions: Chemicalre- Yuhe Liu, Georgiy Stenchikov,Karl Taylor, Hans Graf, Ingo
actionsthat occurwith interactionsinvolvingmore than Kirchner, Melissa Free, and Juan Carlos Antufia for their
one phase. Gas reactionsthat occur on the surface of collaborationswith me that made these results possible.I
aerosolparticlesare an example. thank John Christy and Phil Jones for temperature data. I
Interdecadal: Varying from one decade (10-year thank Ellsworth Dutton for radiation observations used in
period) to another. Figures 1 and 2. Figures 1, 2, and 4-7 and Plates 5-8 were
Lithic: Pertainingto stone. In the contexthere, it drawn using GRADS, created by Brian Doty. I thank Juan
meansthat the aerosolparticlesare solid and consistof CarlosAntufia for helpingto draw Figures5 and 7 and Plates
7 and 8.
crustal material.
Michael Coffey was the Editor responsiblefor this paper.
Little Ice Age: The period 1500-1900A.D., which
He thanks Glynn Germany for the cross-disciplinary review
was cooler than the period before or after. and O. B. Toon and R. Stolarski for the technical review.
Magmaticmaterial: From the magma,the hot liq-
uid from the interior of the Earth that often emerges
during a volcaniceruption.
MedievalWarming: Relativelywarm period,900- REFERENCES
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Opticaldepth: A measureof the amountof extinc- College Park, 1997.
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VOLCAN IC ERUPTIONS AN D CLIMATE

Abstract. Volcaniceruptionsare an importantnatural an enhancedpole-to-equatortemperature gradient, es-

1. INTRODUCTION the main text.) Mitchell [1961]wasthe first to conducta

Copyright2000 by the AmericanGeophysicalUnion. Reviewsof Geophysics,

TABLE 1. Major Volcanic Eruptions of the Past 250 Years

Grimsvotn[Lakagigar],Iceland 1783 4 2300 0.19

Figure 1. Broadbandspectrally integratedatmospheric transmissionfactor,measured with thepyrheliometer

fumarolesand small episodiceruptions,add sulfatesto radiationby scattering.Some of the light is backscat-

August, 1991 January• 1992

50O I -0.01• '1I'

6OS 30S EO 3ON 60N 6OS 3OS EQ 30N 60N

Plate 5. Radiativeheatingfrom Pinatubofor three differentwavelengthbands,from Figure 10 of Stenchikov

reduceddownwardnear-IR (producinglessabsorption throughtropopausefolds [Sassenet al., 1995],the global

TABLE 2. Indices of Past Volcanic Eruptions

Name Units How Calculated Reference

Mitchell aerosol mass basedon H. H. Lamb (personalcommunication,1970) Mitchell [1970]

1988] as havingused climaticinformation in its deriva- 1982], it had a negligiblestratosphericimpact [Robock,

TABLE 3. Effects of Large Explosive Volcanic Eruptions on Weather and Climate

Effect Mechanism Begins Duration

Figure 4. Zonal averagesurfaceair temperatureanomalies,averagedfor the six largestvolcaniceruptions

1991Pinatuboeruptionsthe tropicalbands(30øS-30øN), 5.4.1. Observations. It was first suggestedby

GlobalAvg. Lower StratosphericTemp. Anomalies

Figure 5. Globalaveragemonthlystratospheric temperatures

Lower Stratospheric Temp. Anomalies - Latitude Bands

Plate 7. (opposite)Stratospherictemperatureanomaliesfor four equal-areazonalbands,shownas5-month

itself throughout the winter, keeping the polar lower

in an experimentwith better definedaerosolparameters stratosphericheating during the winter of 1783-1984

Figure 7. Temperaturepatternsfor NH winter (DJF) 1991-1992followingthe Mount Pinatuboeruption.

. -. -. -' -' -' Tropopause

Plate 9. Schcmaticdiagramof howtropicallowerstratospheric heatingfrom volcanicaerosolsproducesthe

Apparenttransmission: Amountof total solarradi- measures backscattered ultraviolet radiation in several

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