Sunteți pe pagina 1din 77

Fe

der
alDemo
cra
ti
c
Re
pub
li
cofEt
hio
pia
≠ EDI
CTOFGOVERNMENT±
I
nordertopr
omotepub
licedu
cat
ionandpubl
icsa
fet
y,
e
qua
lj u
sti
cef
orall
,abett
erinf
ormedci
ti
zenry
,theru
le
o
flaw,worl
dtra
deandwo r
ldpea
ce,th
isle
galdoc
umenti
s
h
ere
b ymadeav
ail
abl
eonan onc
omme r
cia
lbasi
s,a
sitis
t
herigh
tofal
lhumanstoknowandspea
kthelawsth
at
g
ove
rnt he
m.
ET ISO 2394 (1998) (English): General
principles on reliability for structures
 

(7+,23,$1 (6
(6,62

67$1'$5' 




)LUVWHGLWLRQ
         














*HQHUDOSULQFLSOHVRQUHOLDELOLW\IRU


 VWUXFWXUHV







 ,GHQWLFDOZLWK,62





















,&6
                
3XEOLVKHGE\(WKLRSLDQ6WDQGDUGV$JHQF\
    

‹(6$
 
(6,62

 )RUHZRUG

 
This  Ethiopian  Standard  has  been  prepared  under  the  direction  of  the  Technical  Committee  for  Building  
structures  and  elements  of  building  (TC  42)  and  published  by  the  Ethiopian  Standards  Agency  (ESA).  
   
The  standard  is  identical  with  ISOϮϯϵϰ͗ϭϵϵϴ  'ĞŶĞƌĂůƉƌŝŶĐŝƉůĞƐŽŶƌĞůŝĂďŝůŝƚLJĨŽƌƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞƐWƵďůŝƐŚĞĚďLJ
  /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƚŝŽŶĂůŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƚŝŽŶĨŽƌƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚŝnjĂƚŝŽŶ(/^K).  
   
For  the  purpose  of  this  Ethiopian  Standard  ,  the  adopted  text  shall  be  modified  as  follows.    
ͻThe  phrase  “International  Standard”  shall  be  read  as  “Ethiopian  Standard”;  and    
ͻA  full  stop  (.)  shall  substitute  comma  (,)  as  decimal  marker.    
 
(7+,23,$167$1'$5' (6,62 (

*HQHUDOSULQFLSOHVRQUHOLDELOLW\IRUVWUXFWXUHV

6FRSH
7KLV,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUGVSHFLILHVJHQHUDOSULQFLSOHVIRUWKHYHULILFDWLRQRIWKHU HOLDELOLW\RIVWUXFWXUHVVXEMHFWHGWR
NQRZQRU IRU HVHHDEOHW\ SHVRIDF WLRQ5HOLDELOLW\ LV F RQVLGHUHGLQU HODWLRQWRWKHSHU IRUPDQFHRI WKH VWUXFWXUH
WKURXJKRXWLWVGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH

7KHJHQHUDOSULQFLSOHVDUHDSSOLFDEOHWRWKHGHV LJQRIF RPSOHWHVWUXFWXUHV EXLOGLQJVEULGJHVLQGXVWULDOVWUXFWXUHV


HWF WKHVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWVPDNLQJXSWKHVWUXFWXUHDQGWKHIRXQGDWLRQV

7KLV,QWHU QDWLRQDO6WDQGDU GLV DOV RDSSOLF DEOHWRWKHV XFFHVVLYHV WDJHV LQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ QDPHO\ WKH IDEULFDWLRQ RI
VWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWVWKHWUDQVSRUWDQGKDQGOLQJRIWKHV WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWVWKHLUHUHFWLRQDQGDOOZRUNRQVLWHDVZHOO
DVWKHXVHRIWKHVWUXFWXUHGXULQJLWVGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIHLQFOXGLQJPDLQWHQDQFHDQGUHSDLU

7RDOORZIRU WKHGLIIHU HQFHVLQGHV LJQSU DFWLFHEHWZHHQGLIIHU HQWF RXQWULHVWKH QDWLRQDO VWDQGDUGV RU FRGHV RI
SUDFWLFHPD\EHVLPSOHURUPRUHGHWDLOHGLQFRPSDULVRQZLWKWKLV,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUG

*HQHUDOO\ WKHSU LQFLSOHVDU HDOV RDSSOLF DEOHWRWKHV WUXFWXUDODSSU DLVDORIH[ LVWLQJF RQVWUXFWLRQVRU DV VHVVLQJ
FKDQJHV RI XVH  +RZHYHU LQ VRPH UHVSHFWVWKLV LV DV VRFLDWHGZLWKV SHFLDODV SHFWVRIWKHEDV LFY DULDEOHVDQG
FDOFXODWLRQPRGHOV6XFKDVSHFWVDUHFRQVLGHUHGLQFODXVH

127(²:KHQWKLV,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUGLVDSSOLHGLQDSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\IRUWKHGHYHORSP HQWRILWVVWDQGDUGVLWLV
DGPLVVLEOHQRWWRXVHWKRVHFODXVHVZKLFKDUHQRWLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHUHJXODWLRQVRIWKDWSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\

'HILQLWLRQV
)RUWKHSXUSRVHVRIWKLV,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUGWKHIROORZLQJGHILQLWLRQVDSSO\

127(²$QDOSKDEHWLFDOLQGH[RIWKHGHILQLWLRQVLVJLYHQLQDQQH[+

*HQHUDOWHUPV

VWUXFWXUH2UJDQL]HGFRPELQDWLRQRIFRQQHFWHGSDUWVGHVLJQHGWRSURYLGHVRPHPHDVXUHRIULJLGLW\

VWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQW3K\VLFDOO\GLVWLQJXLVKDEOHSDUWRIDVWUXFWXUH

(;$03/(6&ROXPQEHDPSODWH

VWUXFWXUDO V\VWHP  /RDGEHDULQJHOHPHQWV RIDEXLOGLQJRU F LYLOHQJLQHHU LQJZRU NVDQGWKHZD\ LQZKLF K


WKHVHHOHPHQWVIXQFWLRQWRJHWKHU

FRPSOLDQFH)XOILOPHQWRIVSHFLILHGUHTXLUHPHQWV


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

OLIHF\FOH7RWDOSHULRGRIWLPHGXU LQJZKLFKWKHSODQQLQJH[ HFXWLRQDQGXV HRIDF RQVWUXFWLRQZRUNVWDNHV


SODFH7KHOLIHF\FOHEHJLQVZLWKLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIQHHGVDQGHQGVZLWKGHPROLWLRQ

7HUPVUHODWLQJWRGHVLJQLQJHQHUDO

GHVLJQ VLWXDWLRQ6HWRISK\ VLFDOF RQGLWLRQVU HSUHVHQWLQJDF HUWDLQWLPHLQWHU YDOIRU ZKLF KWKHGHV LJQ
GHPRQVWUDWHVWKDWUHOHYDQWOLPLWVWDWHVDUHQRWH[FHHGHG

SHUVLVWHQWVLWXDWLRQ1RUPDOFRQGLWLRQRIXVHIRUWKHVWUXFWXUHJHQHUDOO\UHODWHGWRLWVGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH

127(²1RUPDOXVHLQFOXGHVSRVVLEOHH[WUHP HORDGLQJFRQGLWLRQVGXHWRZ LQGVQRZLPSRVHGORDGVHDUWKTXDNHV LQDUHDVRI


KLJKVHLVPLFLW\HWF

WUDQVLHQWVLWXDWLRQ3URYLVLRQDOFRQGLWLRQRIXVHRUH[SRVXUHIRUWKHVWUXFWXUH

(;$03/('XULQJLWVFRQVWUXFWLRQRUUHSDLUZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVDWLPHSHULRGPXFKVKRUWHUWKDQWKHGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH

DFFLGHQWDOVLWXDWLRQ([FHSWLRQDOFRQGLWLRQRIXVHRUH[SRVXUHIRUWKHVWUXFWXUH

(;$03/(6 )ORRG ODQG VOLS ILUH H[SORVLRQ LPSDFWRUORFDOIDLOXUHZKLFKUHSUHVHQWLQP RVWFDVHVDYHU\VKRUWWLP HSHULRG


DSDUWIURPVLWXDWLRQVZKHUHDORFDOIDLOXUHPD\UHPDLQXQGHWHFWHGGXULQJDORQJHUSHULRG 

VHUYLFHDELOLW\$ELOLW\ RIDV WUXFWXUHRU V WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWWRSHU IRUPDGHTXDWHO\ IRU QRU PDOXV HXQGHU DOO
H[SHFWHGDFWLRQV

IDLOXUH,QVXIILFLHQWORDGEHDULQJFDSDFLW\RULQDGHTXDWHVHUYLFHDELOLW\RIDVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQW

UHOLDELOLW\$ELOLW\RIDVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWWRIXOILOWKHVSHFLILHGUHTXLUHPHQWVLQFOXGLQJWKHZRUNLQJ
OLIHIRUZKLFKLWKDVEHHQGHVLJQHG

UHIHUHQFHSHULRG$FKRVHQSHULRGRIWLPHZKLFKLVXVHGDVDEDVLVIRUDVVHVVLQJYDOXHVRIYDULDEOHDFWLRQV
WLPHGHSHQGHQWPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVHWF

OLPLWVWDWH$VWDWHEH\RQGZKLFKWKHVWUXFWXUHQRORQJHUVDWLVILHVWKHGHVLJQSHUIRUPDQFHUHTXLUHPHQWV

127(²/LPLWVWDWHVVHSDUDWHGHVLUHGVWDWHV QRIDLOXUH IURPXQGHVLUHGVWDWHV IDLOXUH 

XOWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWH$VWDWHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKFROODSVHRUZLWKRWKHUVLPLODUIRUPVRIVWUXFWXUDOIDLOXUH

127(²7KLVJHQHUDOO\FRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHPD[LPXPORDGFDUU\LQJUHVLVWDQFHRIDVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWEXWLQVRPH
FDVHVWRWKHPD[LPXPDSSOLFDEOHVWUDLQRUGHIRUPDWLRQ

VHUYLFHDELOLW\ OLPLW VWDWH$V WDWHZKLF KF RUUHVSRQGVWRF RQGLWLRQVEH\ RQGZKLF K VSHFLILHG VHUYLFH
UHTXLUHPHQWVIRUDVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWDUHQRORQJHUPHW

LUUHYHUVLEOH OLPLW VWDWH$OLPLWV WDWHZKLF KZLOOU HPDLQSHU PDQHQWO\ H[FHHGHG ZKHQ WKH DFWLRQV ZKLFK
FDXVHGWKHH[FHVVDUHUHPRYHG

UHYHUVLEOHOLPLWVWDWH$OLPLWV WDWHZKLFKZLOOQRWEHH[ FHHGHGZKHQ WKHDFWLRQVZKLFKFDXVHGWKHH[FHVV


DUHUHPRYHG

VWUXFWXUDOLQWHJULW\ VWUXFWXUDOUREXVWQHVV  $ELOLW\RIDV WUXFWXUHQRWWREH GDPDJHGE\HYHQWVOLNHILUH


H[SORVLRQVLPSDFWRUFRQVHTXHQFHVRIKXPDQHUURUVWRDQH[WHQWGLVSURSRUWLRQDWHWRWKHRULJLQDOFDXVH

GHVLJQ ZRUNLQJ OLIH $VVXPHGSHU LRGIRU ZKLF KDV WUXFWXUHRU DV WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWLV WREHXV HGIRU LWV
LQWHQGHGSXUSRVHZLWKRXWPDMRUUHSDLUEHLQJQHFHVVDU\

PDLQWHQDQFH7RWDOV HWRIDF WLYLWLHVSHUIRUPHGGXULQJWKHGHV LJQZRUNLQJOLIHRIDV WUXFWXUHWRHQDEOH LWWR


IXOILOWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUUHOLDELOLW\


‹(6$ (6,62 (

UHOLDELOLW\FODVVRIVWUXFWXUHV&ODV VRIV WUXFWXUHVRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWVIRUZKLFKD SDUWLFXODUVSHFLILHG


GHJUHHRIUHOLDELOLW\LVUHTXLUHG

EDVLF YDULDEOH 3DUW RI D VSHFLILHGV HWRIY DULDEOHVU HSUHVHQWLQJSK\ VLFDOTXDQWLWLHV ZKLF KF KDUDFWHUL]H
DFWLRQVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHVPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVLQFOXGLQJVRLOSURSHUWLHVDQGJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV

SULPDU\EDVLFYDULDEOH9DULDEOHZKRVHYDOXHLVRISULPDU\LPSRUWDQFHWRWKHGHVLJQUHVXOWV

OLPLW VWDWH IXQFWLRQ$IXQF WLRQ JRIWKHEDV LFY DULDEOHV ZKLFK FKDUDFWHUL]HV D OLPLW VWDWH ZKHQ
J ;;;Q  J!LGHQWLILHVZLWKWKHGHVLUHGVWDWHDQGJZLWKWKHXQGHVLUHGVWDWH

UHOLDELOLW\ LQGH[ b$V XEVWLWXWHIRU WKHIDLOXU HSU REDELOLW\ SIGHILQHGE\  b -F - SI ZKHU H F -LV WKH
LQYHUVHVWDQGDUGL]HGQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ

SDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDW&DOFXODWLRQIRUPDWLQZKLFKDOORZDQFHLVPDGHIRUWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVDQGYDULDELOLWLHV
DVVLJQHGWRWKHEDV LFY DULDEOHVE\ PHDQV RIU HSUHVHQWDWLYHY DOXHVSDU WLDOIDF WRUVDQGLIU HOHYDQW DGGLWLYH
TXDQWLWLHV

UHOLDELOLW\HOHPHQW1XPHULFDOTXDQWLW\XVHGLQWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDWE\ZKLFKWKHV SHFLILHGGHJUHHRI
UHOLDELOLW\LVDVVXPHGWREHUHDFKHG

HOHPHQWUHOLDELOLW\5HOLDELOLW\RIDVLQJOHVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWZKLFKKDVRQHVLQJOHGRPLQDWLQJIDLOXUHPRGH

V\VWHPUHOLDELOLW\5HOLDELOLW\RIDV WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWZKLFKKDVPRUHWKDQRQHUHOHYDQWIDLOXUHPRGHRUWKH
UHOLDELOLW\RIDV\VWHPRIPRUHWKDQRQHUHOHYDQWVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQW

PRGHO6LPSOLILHGPDWKHPDWLFDOGHV FULSWLRQRU H[ SHULPHQWDOV HWXSV LPXODWLQJDF WLRQVPDWHU LDOSU RSHUWLHV


WKHEHKDYLRXURIDVWUXFWXUHHWF

127(²0RGHOVVKRXOGJHQHUDOO\WDNHDFFRXQWRIGHFLVLYHIDFWRUVDQGQHJOHFWWKHOHVVLPSRUWDQWRQHV

PRGHOXQFHUWDLQW\5HODWHGWRWKHDFFXUDF\RIPRGHOVSK\VLFDORUVWDWLVWLFDO

127(²)XUWKHULQIRUPDWLRQLVJLYHQLQDQQH[HV'DQG(

VWDWLVWLFDO XQFHUWDLQW\8QF HUWDLQW\U HODWHGWRWKHDF FXUDF\RIWKH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG HVWLPDWLRQ RI


SDUDPHWHUV

DVVHVVPHQW7RWDOVHWRIDFWLYLWLHVSHUIRUPHGLQRUGHUWRILQGRXWLIWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIDVWUXFWXUHLVDFFHSWDEOH
RUQRW

7HUPVUHODWLQJWRDFWLRQVDFWLRQHIIHFWVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHV

DFWLRQ
 $QDVVHPEO\RIFRQFHQWUDWHGRUGLVWULEXWHGPHFKDQLFDOIRUFHVDFWLQJRQDVWUXFWXUH GLUHFWDFWLRQV 

 7KHFDXVHRIGHIRUPDWLRQVLPSRVHGRQWKHVWUXFWXUHRUFRQVWUDLQHGLQLW LQGLUHFWDFWLRQ 

SHUPDQHQWDFWLRQ
 $FWLRQZKLF KLV OLN HO\WRDF WF RQWLQXRXVO\WKU RXJKRXWDJLY HQU HIHUHQFHSHU LRGDQGIRU ZKLF K YDULDWLRQV LQ
PDJQLWXGHZLWKWLPHDUHVPDOOFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHPHDQYDOXH

 $FWLRQZKRVHYDULDWLRQLVRQO\LQRQHVHQVHDQGFDQOHDGWRVRPHOLPLWLQJYDOXH

YDULDEOHDFWLRQ$FWLRQIRUZKLFKWKHYDULDWLRQLQPDJQLWXGHZLWKWLPHLV QHLWKHUQHJOLJLEOHLQU HODWLRQWRWKH


PHDQYDOXHQRUPRQRWRQLF


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

DFFLGHQWDODFWLRQ$FWLRQWKDWLV XQOLNHO\WRRF FXUZLWKDV LJQLILFDQWYDOXHRQDJLY HQVWUXFWXUHRYHUDJLYHQ


UHIHUHQFHSHULRG

127(²$FFLGHQWDODFWLRQVDUHLQPRVWFDVHVRIVKRUWGXUDWLRQ

IL[HG DFWLRQ$F WLRQZKLF KKDV DIL[ HGGLV WULEXWLRQRQDV WUXFWXUHV XFKDV LWV PDJQLWXGH DQG GLUHFWLRQ DUH
GHWHUPLQHGXQDPELJXRXVO\IRUWKHZKROHVWUXFWXUHZKHQGHWHUPLQHGDWRQHSRLQWRQWKHVWUXFWXUH

IUHHDFWLRQ$FWLRQZKLFKPD\KDYHDQDUELWUDU\VSDWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQRYHUWKHVWUXFWXUHZLWKLQJLYHQOLPLWV

VWDWLFDFWLRQ$FWLRQZKLFKZLOOQRWFDXVHVLJQLILFDQWDFFHOHUDWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV

G\QDPLFDFWLRQ$FWLRQZKLFKPD\FDXVHVLJQLILFDQWDFFHOHUDWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV

ERXQGHG DFWLRQ$F WLRQZKLF KKDV DOLPLWLQJY DOXHZKLF KF DQQRWEHH[ FHHGHGDQGZKLF K LV H[DFWO\ RU
DSSUR[LPDWHO\NQRZQ

XQERXQGHGDFWLRQ$FWLRQZKLFKKDVQRNQRZQOLPLWLQJYDOXHV

UHSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXHRIDQDFWLRQ$YDOXHXVHGIRUWKHYHULILFDWLRQRIDOLPLWVWDWH

127(²5HSUHVHQWDWLYH YDOXHV FRQVLVWRIFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVFRP ELQDWLRQYDOXHVIUHTXHQWYDOXHVDQGTXDVLSHUP DQHQW


YDOXHVEXWPD\DOVRFRQVLVWRIRWKHUYDOXHV

FKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHRIDQDFWLRQ3ULQFLSDOUHSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXH

127(²,WLVFKRVHQHLWKHURQDVWDWLVWLFDOEDVLVVRWKDWLWFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGWRKDYHDVSHFLILHG SUREDELOLW\ RI QRW EHLQJ


H[FHHGHGWRZDUGVXQIDYRXUDEOHYDOXHVGXULQJDUHIHUHQFHSHULRGRURQDFTXLUHGH[SHULHQFHRURQSK\VLFDOFRQVWUDLQWV

FRPELQDWLRQYDOXH9DOXHF KRVHQLQV RIDUDVLWF DQEHIL[ HGRQV WDWLVWLFDOEDVHVVRWKDW WKHSUREDELOLW\


WKDW WKH DFWLRQ HIIHFWY DOXHVF DXVHGE\ WKHF RPELQDWLRQZLOOEHH[ FHHGHGLV DSSU R[LPDWHO\WKHV DPHDV ZKHQD
VLQJOHDFWLRQLVFRQVLGHUHG

IUHTXHQWYDOXH9DOXHGHWHUPLQHGLQVRIDUDVLWFDQEHIL[HGRQVWDWLVWLFDOEDVHVVRWKDW

² WKHWRWDOWLPHZLWKLQDF KRVHQSHU LRGRIWLPHGXU LQJZKLF KLWLV H[ FHHGHGLV RQO\ DV PDOOJLY HQSDU WRIWKH
FKRVHQSHULRGRIWLPHRU

² WKHIUHTXHQF\RILWVH[FHHGDQFHLVOLPLWHGWRDJLYHQYDOXH

TXDVLSHUPDQHQWYDOXH9DOXHGHWHUPLQHGLQVRIDUDVLWFDQEHIL[HGRQVWDWLVWLFDOEDVHVVRWKDWWKHWRWDO
WLPHZLWKLQDFKRVHQSHULRGRIWLPHGXULQJZKLFKLWLVH[FHHGHGLVRIWKHPDJQLWXGHRIKDOIWKHSHULRG

GHVLJQYDOXHRI DQDFW LRQ )G9DOXHREWDLQHGE\ PXOWLSO\ LQJWKHU HSUHVHQWDWLYHY DOXHE\ WKHSDU WLDO
IDFWRUg )

ORDGDUUDQJHPHQW,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHSRVLWLRQPDJQLWXGHDQGGLUHFWLRQRIDIUHHDFWLRQ

ORDG FDVH&RPSDWLEOHORDGDU UDQJHPHQWVV HWRIGHIRU PDWLRQVDQGLPSHU IHFWLRQVF RQVLGHUHGIRU D


SDUWLFXODUYHULILFDWLRQ

ORDGFRPELQDWLRQ6HWRIGHVLJQYDOXHVXVHGIRUWKHY HULILFDWLRQRIWKHV WUXFWXUDOUHOLDELOLW\IRUDOLPLWV WDWH


XQGHUWKHVLPXOWDQHRXVLQIOXHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWDFWLRQV

HQYLURQPHQWDO LQIOXHQFH 0HFKDQLFDO SK\VLFDO FKHPLFDORU ELRORJLF DOLQIOXHQF HZKLF KPD\ F DXVH
GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI WKH PDWHULDOV FRQVWLWXWLQJDV WUXFWXUHZKLF KLQWXU QPD\ DIIHF WLWV V HUYLFHDELOLW\DQGV DIHW\LQDQ
XQIDYRXUDEOHZD\


‹(6$ (6,62 (

7HUPVUHODWLQJWRVWUXFWXUDOUHVSRQVHUHVLVWDQFHPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVDQGJHRPHWULFDO
TXDQWLWLHV

FKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHRIDPDWHULDOSURSHUW\$Q DSULRULVSHFLILHGIUDFWLOHRIWKHV WDWLVWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH


PDWHULDOSURSHUW\LQWKHVXSSO\SURGXFHGZLWKLQWKHVFRSHRIWKHUHOHYDQWPDWHULDOVWDQGDUG

FKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHRIDJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLW\$TXDQWLW\ XVXDOO\FRUUHVSRQGLQJWR GLPHQVLRQVVSHFLILHG


E\WKHGHVLJQHU

GHVLJQYDOXHRIDPDWHULDOSURSHUW\9DOXHREWDLQHGE\ GLYLGLQJWKHF KDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHE\DSDU WLDOIDFWRU


g 0RULQVSHFLDOFLUFXPVWDQFHVE\GLUHFWDVVHVVPHQW

GHVLJQYDOXHRI DJHRPHW ULFDOTXDQW LW\&KDU DFWHULVWLFY DOXHSOXV RU PLQXV DQDGGLWLY HJHRPHWU LFDO
TXDQWLW\

FRQYHUVLRQ IDFWRU)DF WRUZKLF KF RQYHUWVSU RSHUWLHVREWDLQHGIU RPWHV WV SHFLPHQVWRSU RSHUWLHV
FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHDVVXPSWLRQVPDGHLQFDOFXODWLRQPRGHOV

FRQYHUVLRQ IXQFWLRQ  )XQFWLRQ ZKLFK FRQYHUWV SURSHUWLHVREWDLQHGIU RPWHV WV SHFLPHQVWRSU RSHUWLHV
FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHDVVXPSWLRQVPDGHLQFDOFXODWLRQPRGHOV

6\PEROV
127(²7KHV\PEROVXVHGJHQHUDOO\DUHOLVWHGEHORZ 7KRVHZ KLFKDUHQRWJHQHUDODQGZ KLFKDUHXVHGRQO\LQRQHFODXVH
DQGDUHH[SODLQHGWKHUH DUHQRWOLVWHG

0DLQOHWWHUV

$ $FFLGHQWDODFWLRQ

& 6HUYLFHDELOLW\FRQVWUDLQW

) $FWLRQLQJHQHUDO

) %DVLFDFWLRQYDULDEOH

)U 5HSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXHRIDQDFWLRQ

* 3HUPDQHQWDFWLRQ

4 9DULDEOHDFWLRQ

5 5HVLVWDQFH

6 $FWLRQHIIHFW

: $FWLRQPRGHOYDULDEOH

; %DVLFYDULDEOH

< 0RGHORXWSXWYDULDEOH

D *HRPHWULFDOTXDQWLW\

DD $GGLWLYHJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLW\

I 0DWHULDOSURSHUW\


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

SI 3UREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUH

SIV 6SHFLILHGYDOXHRISI

W 7LPH

b 5HOLDELOLW\LQGH[

g 3DUWLDOIDFWRU

gI 3DUWLDOIDFWRUIRUDFWLRQV

g) *HQHUDOL]HGSDUWLDOIDFWRUIRUDFWLRQVWDNLQJDFFRXQWRIPRGHODQGJHRPHWULFXQFHUWDLQWLHV

g* 3DUWLDOIDFWRUIRUSHUPDQHQWDFWLRQV

g4 3DUWLDOIDFWRUIRUYDULDEOHDFWLRQV

gP 3DUWLDOIDFWRUIRUPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHV

g0 *HQHUDOL]HGSDUWLDOIDFWRUIRUUHVLVWDQFHSURSHUWLHVWDNLQJDFFRXQWRIPDWHULDOPRGHODQG JHRPHWULF
XQFHUWDLQWLHV

g' 3DUWLDOIDFWRUIRUPRGHOXQFHUWDLQWLHV

gQ )DFWRUE\ZKLFKWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHVWUXFWXUHDQGWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIIDLOXUHDUHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW

q 3DUDPHWHUZKLFKFRQWDLQVPRGHOXQFHUWDLQWLHV

qV 9DOXHIRUDFWLRQHIIHFWV

q5 9DOXHIRUUHVLVWDQFH

j )XQFWLRQRIDFWLRQYDULDEOHV

Y )DFWRUIRUGHWHUPLQLQJFRPELQDWLRQYDOXHVRIDFWLRQV

Y )DFWRUIRUGHWHUPLQLQJIUHTXHQWYDOXHVRIDFWLRQV

Y )DFWRUIRUGHWHUPLQLQJTXDVLSHUPDQHQWYDOXHVRIDFWLRQV

J ;W /LPLWVWDWHIXQFWLRQ

6XEVFULSWV
L %DVLFYDULDEOH PDLQO\DFWLRQ QXPEHUL

M $FWLRQQXPEHUM

N &KDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH

G 'HVLJQYDOXH

5HTXLUHPHQWVDQGFRQFHSWV

)XQGDPHQWDOUHTXLUHPHQWV

6WUXFWXUHVDQGVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWVVKDOOEHGHVLJQHGFRQVWUXFWHGDQGPDLQWDLQHGLQVXFKDZD\WKDWWKH\DUHVXLWHG
IRUWKHLUXVHGXULQJWKHGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIHDQGLQDQHFRQRPLFZD\


‹(6$ (6,62 (

,QSDUWLFXODUWKH\VKDOOZLWKDSSURSULDWHGHJUHHVRIUHOLDELOLW\IXOILOWKHIROORZLQJUHTXLUHPHQWV

² WKH\VKDOOSHUIRUPDGHTXDWHO\XQGHUDOOH[SHFWHGDFWLRQV VHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHUHTXLUHPHQW 

² WKH\V KDOOZLWKV WDQGH[ WUHPHDQGRU IU HTXHQWO\U HSHDWHGDF WLRQVRF FXUULQJGXU LQJ WKHLU FRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG
DQWLFLSDWHGXVH XOWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWHUHTXLUHPHQW 

² WKH\VKDOOQRWEHGDPDJHGE\ HYHQWVOLNHIORRGODQG VOLSILUHH[SORVLRQVLPSDFWRUFRQVHTXHQFHVRIKXPDQ


HUURUVWRDQH[WHQWGLVSURSRUWLRQDWHWRWKHRULJLQDOFDXVH VWUXFWXUDOLQWHJULW\UHTXLUHPHQW 

7KHDSSURSULDWHGHJUHHRIU HOLDELOLW\VKRXOGEHMXGJHGZLWKGXHU HJDUGWRWKHSRV VLEOHFRQVHTXHQFHVRI IDLOXUHDQG


WKHH[SHQVHOHYHORIHIIRUWDQGSURFHGXUHVQHFHVVDU\WRUHGXFHWKHULVNRIIDLOXUH VHH 

7KHPHDVXUHVWKDWFDQEHWDNHQWRDFKLHYHWKHDSSURSULDWHGHJUHHRIUHOLDELOLW\LQFOXGH

² FKRLFHRIVWUXFWXUDOV\VWHPSURSHUGHVLJQDQGDQDO\VLV

² LPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIDTXDOLW\SROLF\

² GHVLJQIRUGXUDELOLW\DQGPDLQWHQDQFH

² SURWHFWLYHPHDVXUHV

7KHVHLWHPVZLOOEHWUHDWHGLQWR

5HOLDELOLW\GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQRIVWUXFWXUHV

7KHH[ SUHVVLRQZLWKDSSU RSULDWHGHJU HHVRIU HOLDELOLW\XV HGLQPHDQV WKDWWKH GHJUHH RI UHOLDELOLW\ VKRXOG EH
DGRSWHGWDNLQJDFFRXQWRI

² WKHFDXVHDQGPRGHRIIDLOXUHLPSO\LQJWKDWDVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWZKLF KZRXOGEHOLN HO\WRF ROODSVH


VXGGHQO\ZLWKRXWZDU QLQJVKRXOGEHGHV LJQHGIRUDKLJKHU GHJUHHRIU HOLDELOLW\WKDQRQHIRUZKLFKDFROODSVHLV
SUHFHGHGE\VRPHNLQGRIZDUQLQJLQVXFKDZD\WKDWPHDVXUHVFDQEHWDNHQWROLPLWWKHFRQVHTXHQFHV

² WKHSRVVLEOHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIIDLOXU HLQWHU PVRIU LVNWROLIHLQMXU \SRWHQWLDOHF RQRPLFORV VHVDQGWKHOHY HORI


VRFLDOLQFRQYHQLHQFH

² WKHH[SHQVHOHYHORIHIIRUWDQGSURFHGXUHVQHFHVVDU\WRUHGXFHWKHULVNRIIDLOXUH

² WKHVRFLDODQGHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQVLQDSDUWLFXODUORFDWLRQ

'LIIHUHQWLDWLRQRIWKHU HTXLUHGGHJUHHVRIU HOLDELOLW\PD\EHREWDLQHGE\ WKHF ODVVLILFDWLRQRIZKROH VWUXFWXUHVRUE\


WKHFODVVLILFDWLRQRIV WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV7 KXVDVDQH[ DPSOHGHJUHHVRIU HOLDELOLW\PD\EHVHOHFWHGDFFRUGLQJWR
WKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIIDLOXUHDVIROORZV

D ULVNWROLIHORZHFRQRPLFVRFLDODQGHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVHTXHQFHVVPDOORUQHJOLJLEOH

E ULVNWROLIHPHGLXPHFRQRPLFVRFLDORUHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVHTXHQFHVFRQVLGHUDEOH

F ULVNWROLIHKLJKHFRQRPLFVRFLDORUHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVHTXHQFHVYHU\JUHDW

7KHUHTXLUHGUHOLDELOLW\UHODWHGWRVWUXFWXUDOVDIHW\RUVHUYLFHDELOLW\PD\EHDFKLHYHGE\VXLWDEOHFRPELQDWLRQVRIWKH
IROORZLQJPHDVXUHV

D 0HDVXUHVUHODWLQJWRGHVLJQ

² VHUYLFHDELOLW\UHTXLUHPHQWV

² WKHFKRLFHRIWKHYDOXHVRIDFWLRQYDULDEOHV


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

² WKHFKRLFHRIWKHGHJUHHRIUHOLDELOLW\IRUWKHGHVLJQFDOFXODWLRQV

² FRQVLGHUDWLRQRIGXUDELOLW\

² FRQVLGHUDWLRQRIWKHGHJUHHRIVWUXFWXUDOLQWHJULW\ UREXVWQHVV VHH

² WKHDPRXQWDQGTXDOLW\RISUHOLPLQDU\LQYHVWLJDWLRQVRIVRLOVDQGSRVVLEOHHQYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHV

² WKHDFFXUDF\RIWKHPHFKDQLFDOPRGHOVXVHG

² WKHVWULQJHQF\RIWKHGHWDLOLQJUXOHV

E 0HDVXUHVUHODWLQJWRTXDOLW\DVVXUDQFHWRUHGXFHWKHULVNRIKD]DUGVLQ

² JURVVKXPDQHUURUV

² GHVLJQ

² H[HFXWLRQ

6WUXFWXUDOGHVLJQ

$IDLOXUHRIDVWUXFWXUHRUSDUWRILWPD\RFFXUGXHWR

² DQH[WUHPHO\XQIDYRXUDEOHFRPELQDWLRQRIDFWLRQVPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHVHWFDOORIZKLF K
DUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKRUGLQDU\XVHDQGRWKHURUGLQDU\FLUFXPVWDQFHV

² HIIHFWV RI H[FHSWLRQDOEXWIRU HVHHDEOHDF WLRQVRU HQY LURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQF HVIRU H[ DPSOHF ROOLVLRQRU H[ WUHPH
FOLPDWLFLQIOXHQFHV

² FRQVHTXHQFHVRIDQHUURUVXFKDVODFNRILQIRUPDWLRQRPLVVLRQPLVXQGHUVWDQGLQJDQGODFNRIFRPPXQLFDWLRQ
QHJOLJHQFHPLVXVHHWF

² LQIOXHQFHVWKDWDUHQRWIRUHVHHQ

127(²7KHWHUPH[FHSWLRQDOUHIHUVWRFLUFXPVWDQFHVDQGRUDFWLRQVWKDWDUHSUHVHQWRQO\GXULQJDVP DOOSRUWLRQRIWKHOLIH
DQGRUZ LWKDORZ SUREDELOLW\' HSHQGLQJRQWKHW\SHRIVWUXFWXUHWKHVHDFWLRQV PD\ RU PD\ QRW EH FRQVLGHUHG H[SOLFLWO\ LQ
GHVLJQ

1R VWUXFWXUH FDQ EH H[SHFWHGWRIXQF WLRQDGHTXDWHO\ LQDOOF DVHVLIH[ FHSWLRQDODF WLRQVRU H[ FHSWLRQDOO\ORZ
UHVLVWDQFHRFFXUEXWWKHIRUHVHHDEOHV FRSHRIGDPDJHV KRXOGEHOLPLWHGWRDQH[ WHQWQRWGLV SURSRUWLRQDWHWRWKH
RULJLQDOFDXVH7KXV PHDVXUHVVKRXOGEHWDN HQWRF RXQWHUVXFKHYHQWV7KHPHDVXUHVZRXOGEDVLFDOO\FRQVLVWRI
RQHRUPRUHRIWKHIROORZLQJ

D 'HVLJQLQJDQGPDLQWDLQLQJWKHV WUXFWXUHDF FRUGLQJWRWKHU XOHV JLYHQ LQ WKH IROORZLQJ FODXVHV IRU FRQGLWLRQV
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKRUGLQDU\XVHDQGRWKHURUGLQDU\FLUFXPVWDQFHV

E 'HVLJQ RI WKH HVVHQWLDOORDG EHDULQJPHPEHU VRIDV WUXFWXUHIRU V SHFLILHGH[ FHSWLRQDODF WLRQVZKLF KPD\ EH
FDXVHGE\DFFLGHQWVRUVLPLODURFFXUUHQFHV

127(²7KHLQWHQWLRQRIVXFKGHVLJQFULWHULDLVWKDWWKH\VKRXOGDOVRFRYHUWKHHIIHFWRI WKH PDMRULW\ RI XQIRUHVHHQ


HYHQWV

7KHV WUXFWXUDOOD\ RXWV KRXOGEHF KHFNHGWRLGHQWLI\ N H\V WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV ZKRV HIDLOXU H ZRXOG FDXVH WKH
FROODSVHRIPRUHWKDQDOLPLWHGSRUWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHFORVHWRWKHHOHPHQWLQTXHV WLRQ:KHUHVXFKVWUXFWXUDO
HOHPHQWVDUHLGHQWLILHGDQGWKHV WUXFWXUDOOD\RXWFDQQRWEHU HYLVHGWRDY RLGWKHPWKHGHVLJQVKRXOGWDNHWKHLU
LPSRUWDQFHLQWRDFFRXQW

F 3URWHFWLRQDJDLQVWIRUHVHHDEOHDFWLRQVDQGHOLPLQDWLRQRIHUURUV

$FDUHIXOFKHFNVKRXOGEHPDGHDQGDSSU RSULDWHDFWLRQWDNHQWRHQV XUHWKDWWKHU HLVQR LQKHUHQWZHDNQHVVLQ


WKHVWUXFWXUDOOD\RXWDQGWKDWDGHTXDWHPHDQVH[LVWWRWUDQVPLWDOOORDGVVDIHO\WRWKHIRXQGDWLRQV


‹(6$ (6,62 (

3URWHFWLYHPHDVXUHVVKRXOGEHLQWURGXFHGIRUH[DPSOHVDIHJXDUGLQJDJDLQVWYHKLFXODULPSDFWE\WKHSURYLVLRQ
RIDGGLWLRQDOSURWHFWLRQVXFKDVEROODUGV

7KHSU REDELOLW\RIJU RVVGHV LJQDQGF RQVWUXFWLRQHU URUVV KRXOGEH UHGXFHG E\ DSSURSULDWH TXDOLW\ DVVXUDQFH
DQGRUTXDOLW\FRQWUROPHDVXUHVDVGHVFULEHGLQ

G 'HVLJQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHLQVXFKDZD\WKDWORFDOGDPDJHGRHVQRWOHDGWRLPPHGLDWHFROODSVHRIWKHZKROHVWUXFWXUH
RUDVLJQLILFDQWSDUWRILW

$V D GHVLJQ DVVXPSWLRQWKHIROORZLQJPD\ EHF KRVHQWRU HSUHVHQWORF DOGDPDJH7KHV WUXFWXUHV KDOOEH


GHVLJQHG DQG GHWDLOHG VRWKDWDQ\ ORDG EHDULQJHOHPHQWV RWKHU WKDQWKHN H\V WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV F DQEH
UHPRYHGZLWKRXWFDXVLQJWKHF ROODSVHRIPRU HWKDQDOLPLWHGSRU WLRQF ORVHWRWKHHOHPHQWLQTXHV WLRQ,QWKH
HYHQWRIWKHUHPRYDORIDQRQ NH\VWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWDOHV VWKDQQRU PDOUHOLDELOLW\IRUWKHU HPDLQLQJVWUXFWXUH
ZLOO EH FRQVLGHUHG DFFHSWDEOH SURYLGHG WKDW WKH VWUXFWXUHLV U HSDLUHGWRQRU PDOU HOLDELOLW\V WDQGDUGZLWKLQD
UHDVRQDEO\VKRUWSHULRGRIWLPHDIWHUGDPDJH

&RPSOLDQFH

7RDFKLHYHDGHTXDWHFRQILGHQFHWKDWWKHFRPSOHWHGFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNVIXOILOWKHV SHFLILHGUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUTXDOLW\
DQG LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH IXQGDPHQWDO UHTXLUHPHQWV  DQDSSU RSULDWHTXDOLW\ SROLF \V KRXOGEHDGRSWHGDQG
LPSOHPHQWHGE\SDUWLHVLQYROYHGLQWKHPDQDJHPHQWRIDOOVWDJHVRIWKHOLIHF\FOHRIWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV

127(²)RUIXUWKHUGHWDLOVVHHDQQH[$DQG,62,62,62,62DQG,62

7KLVTXDOLW\SROLF\VKRXOGFRPSULVH

D GHILQLWLRQRITXDOLW\UHTXLUHPHQWV

E RUJDQL]DWLRQPHDV XUHVDQGF RQWUROVDWWKHV WDJHVRIGHV LJQDQGH[ HFXWLRQDQGGXU LQJWKHXV H DQG WKH


PDLQWHQDQFHRIWKHVWUXFWXUH

7KHTXDOLW\PDQDJHPHQWVHOHFWHGIRULPSOHPHQWLQJWKHTXDOLW\SROLF\VKRXOGLQFOXGHFRQVLGHUDWLRQRI

² WKHW\SHDQGXVHRIWKHVWUXFWXUH

² WKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRITXDOLW\GHILFLHQFLHV HJDFFLGHQWVUHVXOWLQJIURPVWUXFWXUDOIDLOXUHV DQG

² WKHPDQDJHPHQWFXOWXUHRIWKHLQYROYHGSDUWLHV

,Q WKH VWUXFWXUDO GHVLJQ RI WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQZRU NVU HOLDELOLW\LV WKHPRV WLPSRU WDQWDV SHFWWRF RQVLGHUWRDF KLHYH
TXDOLW\6WDQGDUGVIRUVWUXFWXUDOGHVLJQVKRXOGSURYLGHDIUDPHZRUNWRDFKLHYHVWUXFWXUDOUHOLDELOLW\DVIROORZV

² E\SURYLGLQJUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUUHOLDELOLW\

² E\VSHFLI\LQJWKHUXOHVWRYHULI\WKHIXOILOPHQWRIWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUUHOLDELOLW\

² E\VSHFLI\LQJWKHUXOHVIRUVWUXFWXUDOGHVLJQDQGDVVRFLDWHGFRQGLWLRQV

7KHF RQGLWLRQVWREHIXOILOOHGF RQFHUQIRU H[ DPSOH WKH FKRLFH RI VWUXFWXUDO V\VWHPO HYHORIZRUNPDQVKL SDQG
PDLQWHQDQFHUHJLPHDQGDUHQRUPDOO\GHWDLOHGLQWKHV WUXFWXUDOGHVLJQVWDQGDUGV7KHFRQGLWLRQVVKRXOGDOVRWDNH
LQWRDFFRXQWWKHYDULDELOLW\RIPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVWKHTXDOLW\FRQWURODQGWKHF ULWHULDIRUPDWHULDODFFHSWDQFH7 KH\
DOVRLQFOXGHFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIWKHXVHRILQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\ZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHGHV LJQDQGWKHH[ HFXWLRQSURFHVV
LQFOXGLQJVXSSO\FKDLQVZLWKUHJDUGWRGHOLYHULQJRIPDWHULDODQGWHVWLQJRIPDWHULDO

127(6
)RUH[DPSOHWKHFRQGLWLRQVDUHJLYHQDVDVVXPSWLRQVLQ(XURFRGH3DUW%DVLVRI'HVLJQ
6HHDOVRDQQH[$


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

'XUDELOLW\DQGPDLQWHQDQFH

'XUDELOLW\LVDQHFHVVDU\FRQGLWLRQIRUWKHIXOILOOPHQWRIWKHU HTXLUHPHQWVIRUUHOLDELOLW\7KHGXUDELOLW\RIWKHV WUXFWXUH


DQGWKHVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWVLQWKHLUHQYLURQPHQWVKDOOEHVXFKWKDWWKH\UHPDLQILWIRUXVHGXULQJWKHLUGHVLJQZRUNLQJ
OLYHVJLYHQDSSURSULDWHPDLQWHQDQFH7KLVLVDOVRDSSOLFDEOHWRIDWLJXH([DPSOHVRIGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIHDUHJLYHQLQ
WDEOH

7DEOH²1RWLRQDOFODVVLILFDWLRQRIGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH

&ODVV 1RWLRQDOGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH ([DPSOHV


\HDUV
 WR 7HPSRUDU\VWUXFWXUHV
  5HSODFHPHQWVWUXFWXUDOSDUWVHJJDQWU\JLUGHUVEHDULQJV
  %XLOGLQJVDQGRWKHUFRPPRQVWUXFWXUHVRWKHUWKDQWKRVHOLVWHGEHORZ
 RUPRUH 0RQXPHQWDOEXLOGLQJVDQGRWKHUVSHFLDORU LPSRUWDQW VWUXFWXUHV
/DUJHEULGJHV

0DLQWHQDQFH LV WKH WRWDO VHW RIDF WLYLWLHVSHU IRUPHGGXU LQJWKHOLIHRIWKHV WUXFWXUHWRHQDEOHLWWRIXOILOWKH
UHTXLUHPHQWVIRU GXU DELOLW\0DLQWHQDQF HLQF OXGHVWKHSHU IRUPDQFHRIU HJXODULQV SHFWLRQVLQV SHFWLRQVRQV SHFLDO
RFFDVLRQV HJDIWHUDQHDUWKTXDNH WKHXSJUDGLQJRISURWHFWLRQV\VWHPVDQGUHSDLURIVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV

'XUDELOLW\VKDOOEHVHFXUHGE\

² HLWKHUDPDLQWHQDQFHSURJUDPPHRU

² GHVLJQ VXFK WKDW GHWHULRUDWLRQ ZLOO QRW OHDG WRWKHIDLOXU HRIWKHV WUXFWXUHLQWKRV HF DVHVZKHQWKHV WUXFWXUH
FDQQRWRULVQRWH[SHFWHGWREHVXEMHFWHGWRPDLQWHQDQFH

,QWKHILUVWFDVHDERYHWKHVWUXFWXUHVKDOOEHGHV LJQHGDQGF RQVWUXFWHGLQV XFKDZD\ RUSURYLGHGZLWKSU RWHFWLRQ


VRWKDWQRVLJQLILFDQWGHWHULRUDWLRQLVOLNHO\WRRFFXUZLWKLQWKHSHULRGEHWZHHQVXFFHVVLYHLQVSHFWLRQV7KHQHHG IRU
UHOHYDQW SDUWV RI WKHV WUXFWXUHEHLQJDY DLODEOHIRU LQV SHFWLRQ²ZLWKRXWF RPSOLFDWHGGLV PDQWOLQJ²V KDOOEH
FRQVLGHUHGLQWKHGHVLJQ

7RHQVXUHDQDGHTXDWHO\GXUDEOHVWUXFWXUHWKHIROORZLQJLQWHUUHODWHGIDFWRUVVKDOOEHFRQVLGHUHG

² WKHLQWHQGHGXVHRIWKHVWUXFWXUH

² WKHUHTXLUHGSHUIRUPDQFHFULWHULD HJDSSHDUDQFH 

² WKHH[SHFWHGHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV

² WKHFRPSRVLWLRQSURSHUWLHVDQGSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHPDWHULDOV

² WKHVWUXFWXUDOV\VWHP

² WKHVKDSHRIPHPEHUVDQGWKHVWUXFWXUDOGHWDLOLQJ

² WKHTXDOLW\RIZRUNPDQVKLSDQGOHYHORIFRQWURO

² WKHSDUWLFXODUSURWHFWLYHPHDVXUHV

² WKHPDLQWHQDQFHGXULQJWKHGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH

7KHUDWHRIGHWHULRUDWLRQPD\EHHVWLPDWHGRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHRUHWLFDORUH[SHULPHQWDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQDQGH[SHULHQFH


‹(6$ (6,62 (

3ULQFLSOHVRIOLPLWVWDWHVGHVLJQ

/LPLWVWDWHV

*HQHUDO
7KHV WUXFWXUDOSHU IRUPDQFHRIDZKROHV WUXFWXUHRU SDU WRI LW VKRXOG JHQHUDOO\ EH GHVFULEHG ZLWK UHIHUHQFH WR D
VSHFLILHGVHWRIOLPLWVWDWHVZKLFKVHSDUDWHGHVLUHGVWDWHVRIWKHVWUXFWXUHIURPXQGHVLUHGVWDWHV

7KHOLPLWVWDWHVDUHGLYLGHGLQWRWKHIROORZLQJWZRFDWHJRULHV

D XOWLPDWHOLPLWV WDWHVZKLF KF RUUHVSRQGWRWKHPD[ LPXPORDG FDUU\LQJF DSDFLW\RU LQV RPH FDVHV WR WKH
PD[LPXPDSSOLFDEOHVWUDLQRUGHIRUPDWLRQ

E VHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHVZKLFKFRQFHUQWKHQRUPDOXVH

7KH HIIHFW RI H[FHHGLQJ DOLPLWV WDWHPD\ EHLU UHYHUVLEOHRU U HYHUVLEOH,QWKHLU UHYHUVLEOHF DVHWKHGDPDJHRU
PDOIXQFWLRQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHOLPLWVWDWHEHLQJH[FHHGHGZLOOU HPDLQXQWLOWKHV WUXFWXUHKDVEHHQU HSDLUHG,QWKH
UHYHUVLEOHFDVHWKHGDPDJHRUPDOIXQFWLRQZLOOUHPDLQRQO\DVORQJDVWKHFDXVHRIWKHOLPLWVWDWHEHLQJH[FHHGHGLV
SUHVHQW  $V VRRQ DV WKLV FDXVH FHDVHV WR DFWDWU DQVLWLRQIU RPWKHXQGHV LUHGV WDWHEDF NWRWKHGHV LUHGV WDWH
RFFXUV

8OWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWHV
8OWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWHVLQFOXGH

D ORVVRIHTXLOLEULXPRIWKHVWUXFWXUHRURIDSDUWRIWKHVWUXFWXUHFRQVLGHUHGDVDULJLGERG\ HJRYHUWXUQLQJ 

E DWWDLQPHQWRIWKHPD[LPXPUHVLVWDQFHFDSDFLW\RIVHFWLRQVPHPEHUVRUFRQQHFWLRQVE\UXSWXUH LQVRPHFDVHV
DIIHFWHGE\IDWLJXHFRUURVLRQHWF RUH[FHVVLYHGHIRUPDWLRQV

F WUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHRUSDUWRILWLQWRDPHFKDQLVP

G LQVWDELOLW\RIWKHVWUXFWXUHRUSDUWRILW

H VXGGHQFKDQJHRIWKHDVVXPHGVWUXFWXUDOV\VWHPWRDQHZV\VWHP HJVQDSWKURXJK 

7KHHIIHF WRIH[ FHHGLQJDQXOWLPDWHOLPLWV WDWHLV DOPRV WDOZD\ VLU UHYHUVLEOH DQG WKH ILUVW WLPH WKDW WKLV RFFXUV LW
FDXVHVIDLOXUH

127(²)RUVLPSOLFLW\DVWDWHSULRUWRVWUXFWXUDOFROODSVHPD\EHFRQVLGHUHGDVDQXOWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWHHJUHGXFHGVWUXFWXUDO
V\VWHPIROORZLQJDQDFFLGHQWDODFWLRQ

6HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHV
6HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHVLQFOXGH

D ORFDOGDPDJH LQFOXGLQJFUDFNLQJ ZKLFKPD\UHGXFHWKHZRU NLQJOLIHRIWKHV WUXFWXUHRUDIIHFWWKH HIILFLHQF\RU


DSSHDUDQFH RI VWUXFWXUDO RU QRQVWUXFWXUDO HOHPHQWV UHSHDWHGORDGLQJPD\ DIIHF WWKHORF DOGDPDJHHJE\
IDWLJXH

E XQDFFHSWDEOHGHIRUPDWLRQVZKLFKDIIHFWWKHHIILFLHQWXVHRUDSSHDUDQFHRIVWUXFWXUDORUQRQVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV
RUWKHIXQFWLRQLQJRIHTXLSPHQW

F H[FHVVLYHY LEUDWLRQVZKLF KF DXVHGLV FRPIRUWWRSHRSOHRU DIIHF W QRQVWUXFWXUDO HOHPHQWV RU WKH IXQFWLRQLQJ RI
HTXLSPHQW

,QWKHF DVHVRISHU PDQHQWORFDOGDPDJHRU SHUPDQHQWXQDFFHSWDEOHGHIRUPDWLRQVH[FHHGLQJDV HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLW


VWDWHLVLUUHYHUVLEOHDQGWKHILUVWWLPHWKDWWKLVRFFXUVLWFDXVHVIDLOXUH


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

,QRWKHUFDVHVH[FHHGLQJDVHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHPD\EHUHYHUVLEOHDQGWKHQIDLOXUHRFFXUVDVIROORZV

D WKHILUVWWLPHWKHVHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHLVH[FHHGHGLIQRH[FHVVLVFRQVLGHUHGDVDFFHSWDEOH

E LIWKHH[FHVVLVDFFHSWDEOHEXWWKHWLPHZKHQWKHVWUXFWXUHLVLQWKHXQGHVLUHGVWDWHLVORQJHUWKDQVSHFLILHG

F LIWKHH[FHVVLVDFFHSWDEOHEXWWKHQXPEHURIWLPHV WKDWWKHV HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWV WDWHLVH[FHHGHGLVODUJHUWKDQ


VSHFLILHG

G LIDFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHDERYHFULWHULDRURIVRPHRWKHUUHOHYDQWFULWHULDRFFXU

7KHVHFDVHVPD\LQYROYHWHPSRUDU\ORFDOGDPDJH HJWHPSRUDULO\ZLGHFUDFNV WHPSRUDU\ODUJHGHIRUPDWLRQVDQG


YLEUDWLRQV

'HVLJQFULWHULDIRUVHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWV WDWHVDUHJHQHUDOO\H[SUHVVHGLQWHU PVRIOLPLWV IRUDFFHSWDEOHGHIRUPDWLRQV


DFFHOHUDWLRQVFUDFNZLGWKVHWF

127(²7KHVH OLPLWV VKRXOG JHQHUDOO\ EH FRQVLGHUHG UDQGRP DQGP D\EHGHVFULEHGE\VWDWLVWLFDOP HWKRGV7KH\DUH
KRZHYHUQRUPDOO\LQWURGXFHGLQWRFRGHVZLWKVSHFLILHGOLPLWLQJYDOXHV

'HVLJQ

'HVLJQSURFHGXUH
$OOUHOHYDQWOLPLWVWDWHVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHGHVLJQ

)RUHDFKVSHFLILFOLPLWVWDWHWKHUHOHYDQWEDVLFYDULDEOHVVKRXOGEHLGHQWLILHGLHWKHYDULDEOHVZKLFKFKDUDFWHUL]H

² DFWLRQVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHV

² SURSHUWLHVRIPDWHULDOVDQGVRLOV

² JHRPHWULFDOSDUDPHWHUV

0RGHOVZKLF KGHV FULEHWKHEHKDY LRXURIDV WUXFWXUHV KRXOGEHHV WDEOLVKHGIRU HDF KOLPLWV WDWH7KHV HPRGHOV
LQFOXGHPHFKDQLFDOPRGHOVZKLFKGHVFULEHWKHV WUXFWXUDOEHKDY LRXUDV ZHOODV RWKHU SK\ VLFDORU F KHPLFDOPRGHOV
ZKLFKGHVFULEHWKHHIIHFWVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHVRQWKHSURSHUWLHVRIWKHPDWHULDOV

:KHUHF DOFXODWLRQPRGHOV DU HDY DLODEOHWKHOLPLWV WDWHF DQEHGHV FULEHGZLWKDLGRIDIXQF WLRQ JRIWKH EDVLF
YDULDEOHV; ;;;QVRWKDW

J ;;;QW    

(TXDWLRQ  LVFDOOHGWKHOLPLWVWDWHHTXDWLRQDQG

J ;;;QW �  

LGHQWLILHVWKHGHVLUHGVWDWH

,QSULQFLSOHWKHSXU SRVHRIGHV LJQFDOFXODWLRQV RUSURWRW\SHWHVWLQJ LVWRHQV XUHDQDGHTXDWHGHJUHHRIUHOLDELOLW\


7RYHULI\WKLVFDOFXODWLRQVDUHSHUIRUPHGDFFRUGLQJWRDF KRVHQGHVLJQIRUPDW,QWKLV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUGWZR
SRVVLEOHGHVLJQIRUPDWVDUHWUHDWHG

² DSUREDELOLVWLFIRUPDW FODXVH DQG

² DSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDW FODXVH 

7KHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDWLVWKHIRU PDWZKLFKLVLQWHQGHGWREHXV HGIRUGHVLJQFDOFXODWLRQVLQQRUPDOFDVHV7KH


SUREDELOLVWLFIRUPDWPD\EHF RQYHQLHQWIRU V SHFLDOGHV LJQSU REOHPVDQGPD\ EHXV HGIRU WKHF DOLEUDWLRQRISDU WLDO
IDFWRUV


‹(6$ (6,62 (

,QDGGLWLRQWRGHVLJQFDOFXODWLRQVGHWDLOLQJLVDQLPSRUWDQWSDUWRIWKHGHVLJQSURFHGXUH7KXVDVVXPSWLRQVPDGHLQ
WKHFDOFXODWLRQPRGHOVPXVWEHLQF RUSRUDWHGLQWKHZRU NVKRSGUDZLQJVLQVWUXFWLRQVHWFE\DSSURSULDWHVWUXFWXUDO
SURYLVLRQVDQGGHWDLOLQJ

'HVLJQVLWXDWLRQV
$FWLRQVHQYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHVDQGLQPDQ\FDVHVWKHH[SHFWHGSURSHUWLHVRIDVWUXFWXUHYDU\ZLWKWLPH7KHV H
YDULDWLRQVZKLFKRFFXUWKURXJKRXWWKHOLIHRIWKHVWUXFWXUHVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGE\VHOHFWHGGHVLJQVLWXDWLRQVHDFK
RQHU HSUHVHQWLQJDF HUWDLQWLPHLQWHU YDOZLWKDV VRFLDWHGKD] DUGVF RQGLWLRQVDQGU HOHYDQWV WUXFWXUDO OLPLW VWDWHV
6HSDUDWHUHOLDELOLW\FKHFNLQJLVUHTXLUHGIRUHDFKGHVLJQVLWXDWLRQZLWKGXHU HJDUGWRWKHGLIIHU HQWFRQVHTXHQFHVRI
IDLOXUH

7KHGHVLJQVLWXDWLRQVDUHFODVVLILHGDV

² SHUVLVWHQWVLWXDWLRQV

² WUDQVLHQWVLWXDWLRQV

² DFFLGHQWDOVLWXDWLRQV

3HUVLVWHQWDQGWUDQVLHQWVLWXDWLRQVDUHFRQVLGHUHGWRDFWZLWKFHUWDLQW\$FFLGHQWDOVLWXDWLRQVE\GHILQLWLRQRFFXUZLWK
DUHODWLYHO\ORZSUREDELOLW\GXULQJWKHGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH

:KHWKHUORDGVVXFKDVVQRZORDGVHDUWKTXDNHVHWFDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKRWKHU WUDQVLHQWRUDFFLGHQWDOVLWXDWLRQV
ZLOOGHSHQGRQORFDOFRQGLWLRQV

%DVLFYDULDEOHV

*HQHUDO

7KHFDOFXODWLRQPRGHOIRUHDFKOLPLWVWDWHFRQVLGHUHGVKRXOGFRQWDLQDVSHFLILHGVHWRIEDVLFYDULDEOHVUHSUHVHQWLQJ
SK\VLFDOTXDQWLWLHV ZKLF KF KDUDFWHUL]HDF WLRQVDQGHQY LURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQF HVPDWHU LDODQG VRLO SURSHUWLHV DQG
JHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV

,IWKHXQFHUWDLQW\RIDEDVLFYDULDEOHLVMXGJHGWREHLPSRUWDQWHJE\H[SHULHQFHRUE\DVHQVLWLYLW\VWXG\LWVKDOOEH
UHSUHVHQWHGDVDUDQGRPYDULDEOH

7KHXQFHUWDLQWLHVJHQHUDOO\FRQVLVWRIDV\VWHPDWLFSDUW ELDV DQGDUDQGRPSDUW

7KHXQFHUWDLQWLHVDUHFDXVHGE\

² LQKHUHQWU DQGRPY DULDELOLW\ZKLF KLV WKHXQSU HGLFWDEOHY DULDELOLW\LQWLPHRU DPRQJWKHW\ SLFDOV WUXFWXUHVDQG
JHRJUDSKLFDOUHJLRQVXQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQ

² LQVXIILFLHQWGDWDDQGRULPSUHFLVHNQRZOHGJH

5DQGRPYDULDEOHVVKRXOGEHGHVFULEHGE\SUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQVZKLFKRIWHQVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGDVFRQGLWLRQDO
,Q PDQ\ FDVHV WKHVHGLV WULEXWLRQVDU HF KDUDFWHUL]HGE\ PDLQSDU DPHWHUVV XFKDV PHDQV WDQGDUGGHY LDWLRQ
VNHZQHVVDQGFRHIILFLHQWRIFRUUHODWLRQLQWKHFDVHRIPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOGLVWULEXWLRQ$SUREDELOLVWLFPRGHOVKRXOGEH
EDVHGRQDV WDWLVWLFDODQDO\ VLVRIDY DLODEOHGDWD,WLV LPSRU WDQWWRV HSDUDWH DQG LGHQWLI\ WKH GLIIHUHQW VWDWLVWLFDO
SRSXODWLRQVLQRU GHUQRWWRXV HHU URQHRXVW\ SHVRIGLV WULEXWLRQV7KHGDWDV KRXOGZKHQ SRVVLEOH EH H[DPLQHG WR
HOLPLQDWHPHDVXUHPHQWHUURUVVFDOHHIIHFWVHWF

3UREDELOLVWLFPRGHOVIRUEDVLFYDULDEOHVFDQEHXVHGGLUHFWO\ZLWKLQWKHSUREDELOLVWLFIRUPDW VHHFODXVH :LWKLQWKH


SDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDWEDVLFYDULDEOHVDUHUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKHLUGHVLJQYDOXHV VHHFODXVH ZKLFKZKHUHSRVVLEOH
VKRXOGEHGHULYHGIURPWKHSUREDELOLVWLFPRGHOV

127(²)XUWKHUGHWDLOVDUHJLYHQLQDQQH[(


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

$FWLRQV

*HQHUDO
$QDFWLRQLV

² DQDVVHPEO\RIFRQFHQWUDWHGRUGLVWULEXWHGPHFKDQLFDOIRUFHVDFWLQJRQWKHVWUXFWXUH GLUHFWDFWLRQV RU

² WKHFDXVHRIGHIRUPDWLRQVLPSRVHGRQWKHVWUXFWXUHRUFRQVWUDLQHGLQLW LQGLUHFWDFWLRQV 

$QDF WLRQLV F RQVLGHUHGWREHRQHV LQJOHDF WLRQLILWF DQEHDV VXPHGWR EH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ LQGHSHQGHQW LQ WLPH DQG
VSDFHRIDQ\RWKHUDFWLRQDFWLQJRQWKHVWUXFWXUH

127(²,Q UHDOLW\ DFWLRQV WKDW DUH LQWURGXFHG VLPXOWDQHRXVO\DUHRIWHQVWDWLVWLFDOO\GHSHQGHQWWRDFHUWDLQH[WHQWIRU


H[DPSOHFOLPDWLFDFWLRQV ZLQGVQRZWHPSHUDWXUH 7KLVGHSHQGHQF\LVXVXDOO\WDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWE\VSHFLILFSURYLVLRQV

$QDFWLRQLVRIWHQFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\ WZRRU PRU HEDV LFY DULDEOHV)RU H[ DPSOHWKHPDJQLWXGHDQGGLU HFWLRQRIDQ


DFWLRQFDQERWKEHEDVLFYDULDEOHV

6RPHWLPHVDQDFWLRQPD\EHLQWURGXFHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIEDVLFYDULDEOHVHDFKRIZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVVRPHXQGHUO\LQJ
SK\VLFDOSURSHUW\6XFKDIXQFWLRQLVFDOOHGDQDFWLRQPRGHO$QH[ DPSOHLVHDUWKSUHVVXUHZKLFKPD\GHSHQGRQ
WKHYHUWLFDOSUHVVXUHIURPWKHHDUWKDQGWKHDQJOHRIIULFWLRQERWKDUHUDQGRPYDULDEOHV

9DULDEOHVRIQDWXUDODFWLRQVDUHGHWHUPLQHGE\HQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV9DULDEOHVRIDFWLRQVGXHWRKXPDQDF WLYLW\
DUHGHWHUPLQHGE\QRUPDOKXPDQEHKDYLRXUJURVVKXPDQHUURUVHWF

&ODVVLILFDWLRQRIDFWLRQVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHYDULDWLRQRIWKHLUPDJQLWXGHZLWKWLPH
$FWLRQVDUHFODVVLILHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUYDULDWLRQLQWLPHDV

² SHUPDQHQWDFWLRQV * 

² YDULDEOHDFWLRQV 4 

² DFFLGHQWDODFWLRQV $ 

3HUPDQHQWDFWLRQVDUHWKRVHZKLFKDUHOLNHO\WRDFWFRQWLQXRXVO\WKURXJKRXWDJLYHQUHIHUHQFHSHULRGDQGIRUZKLFK
YDULDWLRQVLQPDJQLWXGHZLWKWLPHDUHVPDOOFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHPHDQY DOXHRUWKHY DULDWLRQRIZKLF KLVRQO\LQRQH
VHQVHDQGFDQOHDGWRVRPHOLPLWLQJYDOXHV

9DULDEOHDFWLRQVDUHWKRVHIRUZKLFKWKHYDULDWLRQLQPDJQLWXGHZLWKWLPHLV QHLWKHUQHJOLJLEOHLQU HODWLRQWRWKHPHDQ


YDOXHQRUPRQRWRQLF

$FFLGHQWDODF WLRQVDU HWKRV HWKDWDU HXQOLN HO\WRRF FXUZLWKDV LJQLILFDQWY DOXH RQ D JLYHQ VWUXFWXUH RYHU D JLYHQ
UHIHUHQFHSHULRG

127(²$FFLGHQWDODFWLRQVDUHLQPRVWFDVHVRIVKRUWGXUDWLRQ

9DULDEOHDQGDFFLGHQWDODFWLRQVFDQEHGHVFULEHGE\UDQGRPDQGRUQRQUDQGRPIXQFWLRQVRIVSDFHDQGWLPH

3UREDELOLVWLFPRGHOV IRU WKHH[ WUHPHVRIY DULDEOHDQGDF FLGHQWDO DFWLRQV VKRXOG DOZD\V UHIHU WR D JLYHQ UHIHUHQFH
SHULRG

127(²([DPSOHVRISHUPDQHQWYDULDEOHDQGDFFLGHQWDODFWLRQVDUHJLYHQLQDQQH[%

&ODVVLILFDWLRQRIDFWLRQVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUYDULDWLRQLQVSDFH
$FWLRQVDUHFODVVLILHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUYDULDWLRQLQVSDFHDV

² IL[HGDFWLRQV

² IUHHDFWLRQV


‹(6$ (6,62 (

$FWLRQVZKLFKFDQQRWEHGHILQHGDVEHORQJLQJWRHLWKHURIWKHVHWZRJURXSVPD\EHFRQVLGHUHGWRFRQVLVWRIDIL[HG
SDUWDQGDIUHHSDUW

7KHWUHDWPHQWRIIUHHDFWLRQVUHTXLUHVWKHFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWORDGDUUDQJHPHQWV

127(²,QFHUWDLQFDVHVHJIRUWUDIILFORDGVLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRGLVWLQJXLVKDP RQJIUHHDFWLRQVWKRVHWKDWDUHP RYLQJRU


QRWDQGZ KDWDUHWKHOLP LWVWRWKHLUIUHHGRP 6XFKGLVWLQFWLRQVDUHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWE\WKH PRGHO LWVHOI RU E\ VSHFLILF
SURYLVLRQVIRUXVH

&ODVVLILFDWLRQRIDFWLRQVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHVWUXFWXUDOUHVSRQVH
$FWLRQVDUHFODVVLILHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHZD\LQZKLFKDVWUXFWXUHUHVSRQGVWRWKHDFWLRQDV

² VWDWLFDFWLRQVLHQRWFDXVLQJVLJQLILFDQWDFFHOHUDWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV

² G\QDPLFDFWLRQVLHFDXVLQJVLJQLILFDQWDFFHOHUDWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV

127(²,QPRVWFDVHVWKHG\QDPLFDFWLRQVFDQEHWUHDWHGDVVWDWLFDFWLRQVE\WDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHG\QDP LFHIIHFWVE\DQ
DSSURSULDWHLQFUHDVHLQWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHTXDVLVWDWLFFRPSRQHQWRUE\WKHFKRLFHRIDQHTXLYDOHQWVWDWLFIRUFH:KHQWKLVLV
QRWWKHFDVHFRUUHVSRQGLQJG\QDP LFP RGHOVDUHXVHGWRDVVHVVWKHUHVSRQVHRI WKH VWUXFWXUH LQHUWLD IRUFHV DUH WKHQ QRW
LQFOXGHGLQWKHDFWLRQPRGHOEXWDUHGHWHUPLQHGE\DQDO\VLV

%RXQGHGDQGXQERXQGHGDFWLRQV
%RXQGHGDF WLRQVDU HWKRV HZKLF KKDY HDOLPLWLQJY DOXHZKLF KF DQQRWEH H[FHHGHG DQG ZKLFK LV H[DFWO\ RU
DSSUR[LPDWHO\NQRZQ6XFKDOLPLWLQJY DOXHFDQEHDWWDLQHGRU QHDUO\DWWDLQHGZLWKDV LJQLILFDQWSUREDELOLW\GXULQJ
WKHGHVLJQVLWXDWLRQXQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQ7KHRWKHUDFWLRQVDUHFDOOHGXQERXQGHGDFWLRQV

2WKHUFODVVLILFDWLRQVRIDFWLRQV
2WKHUF ODVVLILFDWLRQVPRV WRIWKHPPDWHU LDOGHSHQGHQWDU HWREHF RQVLGHUHGLQV SHFLDOF DVHV HJ FODVVLILFDWLRQ
DFFRUGLQJWRGXUDWLRQIRUDVVHVVLQJWKHHIIHFWVRIFUHHSDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQIRUIDWLJXHYHULILFDWLRQV 

(QYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHV

(QYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQF HVPD\ KDY HDPHF KDQLFDOSK\ VLFDOF KHPLFDORU ELRORJLF DO FKDUDFWHU DQG PD\ GHWHULRUDWH
WKHPDWHULDORIDVWUXFWXUHZKLFKLQWXUQPD\DIIHFWVDIHW\DQGVHUYLFHDELOLW\LQDQXQIDYRXUDEOHZD\

(QYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHVDUHLQPDQ\UHVSHFWVVLPLODUWRDF WLRQVDQGF DQEHF ODVVLILHGLQDV LPLODUZD\HVSHFLDOO\


FRQFHUQLQJWKHLU WHPSRU DOY DULDELOLW\7 KXVHQY LURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQF HVF DQEHF ODVVLILHGDV SHU PDQHQWY DULDEOHDQG
DFFLGHQWDO

127(²$Q H[DPSOH RI D SHUPDQHQW LQIOXHQFH LVWKHFKHP LFDOHIIHFWRIFKORULGHVLQVHDZ DWHURQFRQFUHWH7KHHIIHFWRI


KXPLGLW\RQWKHVWUHQJWKRIZRRGLVDQH[DPSOHRIDYDULDEOHLQIOXHQFH

7KHHIIHFWVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHVDUHVWURQJO\PDWHULDOGHSHQGHQWDQGWKHU HIRUHWKHF KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHV H


LQIOXHQFHVKDYHWREHVSHFLILHGIRUHDFKSDUWLFXODUW\SHRIPDWHULDO,QPDQ\FDVHVLQYROYLQJFKHPLFDODQGELRORJLFDO
GHWHULRUDWLRQWKHSUHVHQFHRIPRLVWXUHLVDNH\IDFWRU

(QYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHVVKRXOGZKHUHSRVVLEOHEHGHV FULEHGE\WKHXV HRIQXPHU LFDOYDOXHVLQWKHV DPHZD\DV


IRUDFWLRQV,QPDQ\FDVHVWKLVLVGLIILFXOWDQGWKHUHIRUHHQYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHVDUHRIWHQFODVVLILHGZLWKUHVSHFWWR
WKHLUDJJU HVVLYHQHVVDJDLQV WDV SHFLILFPDWHU LDO2 IWHQWZR RU PRUH HQYLURQPHQWDO LQIOXHQFHV JLYH D FRPELQHG
HIIHFWZKLFKLVPRUHVHYHUHWKDQWKHVXPRIWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHVLQJOHLQIOXHQFHV,QVXFKFDVHVWKHHQYLURQPHQWDVD
ZKROHVKRXOGEHFODVVLILHGZLWKUHJDUGWRLWVDJJUHVVLYHQHVV

127(²,Q VRPH FDVHV KRZHYHU DQ HQYLURQPHQWDO LQIOXHQFH FDQEHGHVFULEHGE\QXP HULFDOYDOXHVDQGP RGHOVIRUWKHLU
HIIHFWVRQDVSHFLILFPDWHULDOFDQEHHVWDEOLVKHG,QVXFKFDVHV WKHGHJUDGDWLRQRIWKHPDWHULDODIWHUGLIIHUHQWSHULRGVRIWLPH
FDQEHHVWLPDWHGE\FDOFXODWLRQV2QHH[DPSOHLVWKHFDUERQDWLRQRIWKHFRQFUHWHFRYHUIRUUHLQIRUFHPHQW


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

3URSHUWLHVRIPDWHULDOV
3URSHUWLHV RI PDWHULDOV LQFOXGLQJV RLOVV KRXOGEHGHV FULEHGE\ PHDV XUDEOHSK\ VLFDOTXDQWLWLHV DQGV KRXOG
FRUUHVSRQGWRWKHSU RSHUWLHVF RQVLGHUHGLQWKHF DOFXODWLRQPRGHO7KHV H SURSHUWLHV PD\ YDU\ LQ WLPH GHSHQG RQ
WHPSHUDWXUH KXPLGLW\ORDGKLV WRU\DQGRWKHU LQIOXHQF HV7KH\ DOV RGHSHQGRQV SHFLILHGF RQGLWLRQVF RQFHUQLQJ
PDQXIDFWXULQJVXSSO\DQGDFFHSWDQFHFULWHULD

*HQHUDOO\WKHSURSHUWLHVDQGWKHLU YDULDWLRQVKRXOGEHGHWHU PLQHGIURPWHVWVRQDSSU RSULDWHWHVWVSHFLPHQV7KH


WHVWVVKRXOGEHEDVHGRQUDQGRPVDPSOHVZKLFKDUHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIWKHSRSXODWLRQXQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQ

%\PHDQV RIDSSU RSULDWHO\V SHFLILHGF RQYHUVLRQIDF WRUVRU IXQF WLRQVWKH SURSHUWLHV REWDLQHG IURP WHVW VSHFLPHQV
VKRXOGEHFRQYHUWHGWRSURSHUWLHVFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHDV VXPSWLRQVPDGHLQF DOFXODWLRQPRGHOV7KHXQF HUWDLQWLHV
RIWKHF RQYHUVLRQIDF WRUVV KRXOGEHF RQVLGHUHG3RV VLEOHF RQYHUVLRQHIIHF WVWKDW VKDOO EH FRQVLGHUHG DUH VL]H
HIIHFWVWLPHHIIHFWVDQGWKHHIIHFWVRIWHPSHUDWXUHKXPLGLW\HWF
127(²)RUVRLOVDVIRUH[LVWLQJVWUXFWXUHVWKHP DWHULDOVDUHLQP RVW FDVHV QRW SURGXFHG EXW DUH IRXQG RQ WKH VLWH
7KHUHIRUHWKHYDOXHVRIWKHSURSHUWLHVKDYHWREHGHWHUP LQHGIRUHDFKSURMHFW$GHWDLOHGLQYHVWLJDWLRQEDVHGRQWHVWV PD\
WKHQJLYHPRUHSUHFLVHDQGFRPSOHWHLQIRUPDWLRQWKDQDSXUHO\VWDWLVWLFDODSSURDFKHVSHFLDOO\ZLWKUHVSHFWWRV\VWHPDWLFWUHQGV
RU ZHDNVSRWVLQWKHVSDWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQV+ RZHYHUIOXFWXDWLRQVLQKRP RJHQHRXVP DWHULDOVDQGWKHOLP LWHGSUHFLVLRQRIWKH
WHVWVDQGRIWKHLUSK\VLFDOLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVFDQEHWUHDWHGE\VWDWLVWLFDOP HWKRGV)RU WKHVHPDWHULDOVWKHH[WHQWRILQYHVWLJDWLRQ
LVDQHOHP HQWRIWKHVWUXFWXUDOUHOLDELOLW\Z KLFKLVRIWHQGLIILFXOWWRTXDQWLI\$WWKHGHVLJQ VWDJH WKH RWKHU PDWHULDOV KDYH
JHQHUDOO\QRW\HWEHHQSURGXFHGRUDWOHDVWKDYHQRW\HWEHHQLGHQWLILHG7KHUHIRUHFRUUHVSRQGLQJVWDWLVWLFDOSDUDP HWHUVKDYH
WR EHGHGXFHGIURP DQH[LVWLQJSRSXODWLRQZ KLFKLVFRQVLGHUHGVLP LODUWRLWDQGWKHVHSDUDP HWHUVVKRXOGEHFKHFNHG
DIWHUZDUGV IRU TXDOLW\  7KHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIVXIILFLHQWO\KRP RJHQHRXVSRSXODWLRQV HJJRRGGLYLVLRQRIWKHSURGXFWLRQLQ
EDWFKHV DQGWKHVL]HRIVDPSOHVDUHWKHQHOHPHQWVRIWKHVWUXFWXUDOUHOLDELOLW\

*HRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV
*HRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV GHV FULEHWKHV KDSHV L]HDQGRY HUDOO DUUDQJHPHQW RI VWUXFWXUHV VWUXFWXUDO HOHPHQWV DQG
FURVVVHFWLRQV  ,QGHV LJQDF FRXQWV KRXOGEHWDN HQRIWKHSRV VLEOHY DULDWLRQLQJHRPHWU LFDOTXDQWLWLHV 7KH
PDJQLWXGHV RIV XFKY DULDWLRQVDU HGHWHU PLQHGE\ WKHF RQGLWLRQVF RQFHUQLQJWKHOHY HORIZRU NPDQVKLSDW
PDQXIDFWXULQJDQGHUHFWLRQRQWKHVLWH

7KHY DULDELOLW\RIPRV WRIWKHJHRPHWU LFDOTXDQWLWLHV F DQEHF RQVLGHUHGV PDOORU QHJOLJLEOH LQ FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK WKH
YDULDELOLW\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDFWLRQVDQGPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHV6XFKJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHVFDQEHDVVXPHGWREHQRQ
UDQGRPDQGDVVSHFLILHGRQWKHGUDZLQJV

:KHUH WKH GHYLDWLRQ RI FHUWDLQ JHRPHWULFDO TXDQWLWLHV IURPV SHFLILHGY DOXHVPD\ KDY HDV LJQLILFDQWHIIHF WRQWKH
EHKDYLRXUDQGUHVLVWDQFHRIDVWUXFWXUHWKHJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGHLWKHUH[SOLFLWO\DVUDQGRP
YDULDEOHVRULPSOLFLWO\LQWKHPRGHOVIRUDFWLRQVRUVWUXFWXUDOSURSHUWLHV

127(²$VDGHVLJQDVVXPSWLRQLWVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGWKDWWKHWROHUDQFHOLPLWVZLOOEHH[FHHGHGLQRQO\DVPDOOSURSRUWLRQ
RIFDVHV
0DQ\JHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHVHYHQWKRVHFRQVLGHUHGQRQUDQGRP DUHVXEVWLWXWHGLQ YHULILFDWLRQVE\LGHDOL]HGVLPSOLILHGYDOXHV
HJHIIHFWLYHVSDQVRUHIIHFWLYHIODQJHZLGWKV IRUPRGHOOLQJDVWUXFWXUHRULWVHQYLURQPHQW
8QLQWHQWLRQDOHFFHQWULFLWLHVLQFOLQDWLRQVDQGFXUYDWXUHVDIIHFWLQJFROXP QVDQGZ DOOVDUHWKHP RVWXVXDO JHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV
WREHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWDVEDVLFYDULDEOHV7KH\DUHXVXDOO\VSHFLILHGLQP DWHULDOGHSHQGHQWFRGHV7KHVHLPSHUIHFWLRQVDUH
FRPPRQO\ GHILQHG E\ PRGHOV FRQVLVWLQJ RIVLP SOLILHGDVVXP SWLRQVUHJDUGLQJWKHLP SHUIHFWVKDSHDQGE\EDVLFYDULDEOHV
TXDQWLI\LQJWKHGHJUHHVRILP SHUIHFWLRQ:KHUHDSSURSULDWHWKHVHLP SHUIHFWLRQVP D\EHLQFUHDVHGLQRUGHUWRFRYHU WKH
XQFHUWDLQW\RIVXFKP RGHOV DQGSRVVLEO\RWKHUXQFHUWDLQWLHVVXFKDVVRP HQRQKRP RJHQHRXVP DWHULDO SURSHUWLHV  DQG DUH
WKHQGHQRWHGDVHTXLYDOHQWJHRPHWULFDOLPSHUIHFWLRQV
7ROHUDQFHV VSHFLILHGRQWKHEDVLVRIFDOFXODWLRQVRUH[SHULHQFHVKRXOGEHFKHFNHGE\DFWXDOP HDVXUHPHQWVRIVWUXFWXUDO
HOHPHQWV

0RGHOV

*HQHUDO

&DOFXODWLRQPRGHOV V KDOOGHV FULEHWKHV WUXFWXUHDQGLWV EHKDY LRXUXSWRWKH OLPLW VWDWH XQGHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQ
DFFRXQWLQJIRU U HOHYDQWDF WLRQVDQGHQY LURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQF HV0RGHOV V KRXOG JHQHUDOO\ EH UHJDUGHG DV
VLPSOLILFDWLRQVZKLFKWDNHDFFRXQWRIGHFLVLYHIDFWRUVDQGQHJOHFWWKHOHVVLPSRUWDQWRQHV


‹(6$ (6,62 (

2QHFDQRIWHQGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQ
² DFWLRQPRGHOV
² VWUXFWXUDOPRGHOVZKLFKJLYHDFWLRQHIIHFWV LQWHUQDOIRUFHVPRPHQWVHWF 
² UHVLVWDQFHPRGHOVZKLFKJLYHUHVLVWDQFHVFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHDFWLRQHIIHFWV

+RZHYHULQVRPHFDVHVLWLVQRWSRVVLEOHRUFRQYHQLHQWWRPDNHWKLVGLVWLQFWLRQIRUH[DPSOHLIWKHLQVWDELOLW\RUORVV
RIHTXLOLEULXPRIDQHQWLUHVWUXFWXUDOV\VWHPLVVWXGLHGRULILQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQORDGVDQGVWUXFWXUDOUHVSRQVHDUHRI
LQWHUHVW

)RUVWUXFWXUDOPRGHOVWKHIROORZLQJUHVSRQVHFODVVHVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHG
² G\QDPLFYHUVXVVWDWLFUHVSRQVH
² HODVWLFYHUVXVQRQHODVWLF SODVWLF UHVSRQVH
² JHRPHWULFDOO\OLQHDUYHUVXVJHRPHWULFDOO\QRQOLQHDUUHVSRQVH
² WLPHLQGHSHQGHQWYHUVXVWLPHGHSHQGHQWEHKDYLRXU HJFUHHS 
)RUUHVLVWDQFHPRGHOVWKHIROORZLQJVXEGLYLVLRQVFDQEHPDGH
² ORFDOVWUHQJWKPRGHOVHOHPHQWVWUHQJWKPRGHOVDQGV\VWHPVWUHQJWKPRGHOV
² LQVWDQWDQHRXV VWUHQJWK PRGHOV DQG PRGHOV LQFOXGLQJF XPXODWLYHHIIHF WV HJIDWLJXHF XPXODWLYHGHIOHF WLRQ
HWF 

7KH FKRLFH RI ZKLFK PRGHO LV UHOHYDQW IRU DF HUWDLQGHV LJQV LWXDWLRQGHSHQGV RQWKHORDGLQJF KDUDFWHULVWLFVWKH
PDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVDQGWKHJHRPHWU\RIWKHVWUXFWXUH

&DOFXODWLRQPRGHOVVKRXOGSU HIHUDEO\EHEDV HGRQH[ SHULPHQWDOTXDQWLWDWLY HY HULILFDWLRQRILQGLY LGXDODV VXPSWLRQV


JRYHUQLQJWKHUHODWLRQEHWZHHQDFWLRQDQGDFWLRQHIIHFWDQGEHWZHHQDFWLRQHIIHFWDQGUHVLVWDQFH

7\SHVRIPRGHOV

$FWLRQPRGHOV
$ FRPSOHWH DFWLRQ PRGHO GHVFULEHV VHYHUDOSU RSHUWLHVRIWKHDF WLRQV XFKDV LWV PDJQLWXGHSRV LWLRQGLU HFWLRQ
GXUDWLRQHWF,QV RPHF DVHVWKHU HLV DQLQWHU DFWLRQEHWZHHQWKHGLIIHU HQWSU RSHUWLHVZKLF KV KRXOGEHF RQVLGHUHG
6RPHWLPHVLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQDFWLRQVDQGWKHUHVSRQVHRIWKHV WUXFWXUHRFFXU HJIRUFHUWDLQZLQGRV FLOODWLRQV
DQGVRLOVWUXFWXUHLQWHUDFWLRQ ZKLFKVKRXOGDOVREHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW

7KHPDJQLWXGH)RIDQDFWLRQFDQJHQHUDOO\EHPRGHOOHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHV\PEROLFH[SUHVVLRQ

) f )w  

ZKHUH

f  LVDQDSSURSULDWHIXQFWLRQ

) LVDEDVLFDFWLRQYDULDEOHRIWHQZLWKWLPHDQGV SDFHGHSHQGHQWYDULDWLRQV UDQGRPRUQRQUDQGRP DQG


LVJHQHUDOO\LQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHVWUXFWXUH

w LVDUDQGRPRUQRQUDQGRPYDULDEOHZKLFKPD\GHSHQGRQWKHVWUXFWXUDOSURSHUWLHVDQGZKLFKWUDQVIRUPV
)WRWKHDFWLRQ)

)RUH[DPSOHWKHYDULDEOH)FDQEHGHILQHG

² LQWKHFDVHRIVHOIZHLJKWE\WKHGLPHQVLRQVDQGWKHPDVVGHQVLW\

² LQWKHFDVHRIVQRZORDGE\WKHVQRZORDGRQWKHJURXQG

² LQWKHFDVHRIZLQGORDGE\WKHUHIHUHQFHYHORFLW\DWPDERYHWKHJURXQG


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

7KHYDULDEOHwFDQEHGHILQHG

² LQWKHF DVHRIV QRZORDGE\ WKHF RQYHUVLRQIDFWRUZKLFKWUDQVIRUPVWKHV QRZORDGRQ WKHJURXQGWRWKHVQRZ


ORDGRQURRIV

² LQWKHFDVHRIZLQGORDGE\DYDULDEOHLQWKHYHORFLW\SUHVVXUHUHODWLRQVKLS

7KHGHWDLOVRIWKHDF WLRQPRGHOWKDWLV UHTXLUHGIRUWKHGHV LJQGHSHQGRQWKHW\ SHRIDQDO\VLVWREHFDUULHGRXW,Q


WKH FDVH RI D VWDWLFDQDO\ VLVZLWKRXWWLPH GHSHQGHQWRU F XPXODWLYHHIIHF WVQRU PDOO\RQO\ WKHPD[ LPXPDQG
PLQLPXPY DOXHVRF FXUULQJGXU LQJV RPHU HIHUHQFHSHU LRGDU HRILPSRU WDQFH2 QO\LI VHYHUDO WLPHYDULDEOH DFWLRQV
KDYHWREHFRPELQHGZLOODPRUHGHWDLOHGGHVFULSWLRQSURYHQHFHVVDU\

:KHQG\ QDPLFEHKDY LRXULV RILPSRU WDQFHDPRU HGHWDLOHGGHV FULSWLRQRIWKHSU RFHVVPD\ EHU HTXLUHG  7KH
G\QDPLFDFWLRQPRGHOVKDOOGHVFULEHWKHWLPHYDULDWLRQRIWKHDF WLRQLQDZD\ WKDWLVVXIILFLHQWO\GHWDLOHGDQGSU HFLVH
WRJLYHUHDVRQDEO\DFFXUDWHFDOFXODWLRQUHVXOWV7KHGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHDFWLRQPD\EHJLYHQHLWKHULQWKHWLPHGRPDLQ
RUWKHIUHTXHQF\GRPDLQZKLFKHYHULVWKHPRUHFRQYHQLHQW8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHDF WLRQKLVWRU\FDQEHGHDOWZLWKE\
GHVFULELQJWKHDF WLRQDV DQRQ UDQGRPIXQF WLRQRIWLPHKDY LQJDV HOHFWHGQXPEHU RIU DQGRP SDUDPHWHUV RU DV D
UDQGRPSURFHVV5DQGRPSURFHVVHVDUHRIWHQSLHFHZLVHVWDWLRQDU\

,QVRPHFDVHVG\QDPLFDFWLRQVPD\GHSHQGRQWKHPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVDQGVWLIIQHVVRIWKHVWUXFWXUHDVIRULQVWDQFH
LQ WKH FDVH RI FROOLVLRQV ,Q VXFKF DVHVRQHPLJKWZDQWWRV SHFLI\WKHF LUFXPVWDQFHV PDVVHVLQLWLDOY HORFLWLHV
UDWKHUWKDQJLY LQJDF WLRQY DOXHV+RZHY HUEDV HGRQXSSHU ERXQGDU \F RQVLGHUDWLRQV HJ E\ DVVXPLQJ D VWLII
VWUXFWXUH RQHPLJKWWUDQVODWHWKHVHFLUFXPVWDQFHVLQWRHTXLYDOHQWVWDWLFDFWLRQV

,QPDQ\FDVHVLWLVQRWDOZD\VSRVVLEOHWRFKRRVHEHIRUHKDQGQXPHULFDOYDOXHVRIWKHDF WLRQSDUDPHWHUVLQV XFKD


ZD\WKDWWKHILQDOU HVXOWZLOOEHRQWKHV DIHVLGH7 KHUHIRUHLIWKHDF WLRQSDUDPHWHUVFDQQRWEHY HU\ZHOOGHILQHGLW
PD\EHQHFHVVDU\WRSHUIRUPVHYHUDOFDOFXODWLRQVZLWKGLIIHUHQWDVVXPSWLRQVFRQFHUQLQJWKHDFWLRQPRGHO

,IDQDF WLRQFDXVHVFRQVLGHUDEOHIDWLJXHLQDV WUXFWXUHLWLV QHFHVVDU\WR GHVFULEHWKHDFWLRQHIIHFW ORFDOVWUHVV LQ


WHUPVRIRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFV

² DFRPSOHWHKLVWRU\RIVWUHVVIOXFWXDWLRQVRIWHQLQVWDWLVWLFDOWHUPVRU

² DVHWRIVWUHVVF\FOHVSHFLILFDWLRQVDQGWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJQXPEHURIF\FOHV

8QFHUWDLQWLHVFRQFHUQLQJWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHVHDFWLRQVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHVDPHZD\DVIRURWKHUNLQGVRI
YDULDEOHDFWLRQV

127(²0RUHGHWDLOVDERXWDFWLRQPRGHOVDUHJLYHQLQDQQH[)

0RGHOVGHVFULELQJWKHJHRPHWULFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHVWUXFWXUH
$V WUXFWXUHF DQJHQHU DOO\EHGHV FULEHGE\ DPRGHO FRQVLVWLQJ RI RQHGLPHQVLRQDO HOHPHQWV EHDPV FROXPQV
FDEOHVDUFKHVHWF WZRGLPHQVLRQDOHOHPHQWV VODEVZDOOVVKHOOVHWF DQGWKUHHGLPHQVLRQDOHOHPHQWV

7KHJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHVZKLFKDUHLQFOXGHGLQWKHPRGHOJHQHUDOO\UHIHUWRQRPLQDOYDOXHVLHWKHYDOXHVJLYHQLQ
GUDZLQJVGHVFULSWLRQVHWF1RUPDOO\WKHJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHVRIDU HDOVWUXFWXUHGLIIHUIURPWKHLUQRPLQDOYDOXHV
LHWKHVWUXFWXUHKDVJHRPHWULFDOLPSHUIHFWLRQV,IWKHV WUXFWXUDOEHKDYLRXULVVHQVLWLYHWRVXFKLPSHUIHFWLRQVWKHVH
VKDOOEHLQFOXGHGLQWKHPRGHO

,QPDQ\ F DVHVWKHGHIRU PDWLRQRIDV WUXFWXUHF DXVHVV LJQLILFDQWGHY LDWLRQV IURP QRPLQDO YDOXHV RI JHRPHWULFDO
TXDQWLWLHV,IVXFKGHIRUPDWLRQVDUHRILPSRU WDQFHIRU WKHV WUXFWXUDOEHKDY LRXUWKH\ KDY HWREHF RQVLGHUHGLQWKH
GHVLJQLQSU LQFLSDOO\WKHV DPHZD\ DV LPSHU IHFWLRQV7KHHIIHF WVRIV XFKGHIRU PDWLRQVDU HJHQHU DOO\GHQRWHG
JHRPHWULFDOO\QRQOLQHDURUVHFRQGRUGHUHIIHFWV

0RGHOVGHVFULELQJPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVDQGVWDWLFUHVSRQVH
,Q DOPRVW DOO GHVLJQF DOFXODWLRQVV RPHDV VXPSWLRQVF RQFHUQLQJWKHU HODWLRQEHWZHHQIRU FHVRU PRPHQWV DQG
GHIRUPDWLRQV RUGHIRUPDWLRQUDWHV DUHQHFHVVDU\7KHV HDVVXPSWLRQVFDQYDU\DQGGHSHQGRQ WKHSXUSRVHDQG
W\SH RI FDOFXODWLRQ  7KH PRVW JHQHUDO UHODWLRQVKLSDV VXPHGLQGHV LJQIROORZV HODV WLFEHKDY LRXUXQGHU ORZDF WLRQ
HIIHFWV ZKHQWKHRYHUDOOVWUXFWXUDOUHVSRQVHLVFRQVLGHUHGWREHHODVWLF GHYHORSLQJLQWRSODVWLFEHKDYLRXULQFHUWDLQ


‹(6$ (6,62 (

SDUWVRIWKHV WUXFWXUHDWKLJKDF WLRQHIIHF WV,QRWKHU SDU WVRIWKHV WUXFWXUHLQWHU PHGLDWHV WDJHVRF FXU6XF K
UHODWLRQVKLSVPD\EHXVHGJHQHUDOO\+RZHY HUWKHXV HRIDQ\ WKHRU \WDN LQJLQWRDF FRXQWLQ HODVWLFRU SRV WFULWLFDO
EHKDYLRXUPD\KDYHWRWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWUHSHWLWLRQVRIYDULDEOHDFWLRQV

7KHWKHRU \RIHODV WLFLW\PD\ EHU HJDUGHGDV DV LPSOLILFDWLRQRIDPRU HJHQHU DOWKHRU \DQGPD\ JHQHU DOO\EH XVHG
SURYLGHGWKDWIRU FHVDQGPRPHQWV DU HOLPLWHGWRWKRV HY DOXHVIRU  ZKLFK WKH EHKDYLRXU RI WKH VWUXFWXUH LV VWLOO
FRQVLGHUHGDV HODV WLF+RZHY HUWKHWKHRU \RIHODV WLFLW\PD\ DOV REHXV HGLQRWKHU F DVHVLILW LV DSSOLHG DV D
FRQVHUYDWLYHDSSUR[LPDWLRQ

7KHRULHVLQZKLF KIXOO\GHYHORSHGSODVWLFLW\LVDVVXPHGWRRF FXULQF HUWDLQ]RQHVRIWKHV WUXFWXUH SODVWLFKLQJHVLQ


EHDPV\ LHOGOLQHV LQV ODEVHWF  PD\ DOV REHXV HGSU RYLGHGWKDWWKHGHIRU PDWLRQVZKLF KDU HQHHGHGWR HQVXUH
SODVWLFEHKDYLRXURFFXUEHIRUHWKHXOWLPDWHOLPLWV WDWHLVUHDFKHG$VHFRQGFRQGLWLRQLVWKDWWKHDFWLRQVLQIOXHQFLQJ
WKHVH GHIRUPDWLRQV VKRXOG QRW EH UHSHDWHGIU HTXHQWO\7KXV WKHRU \RISODV WLFLW\V KRXOGEHXV HGZLWKF DUHWR
GHWHUPLQHWKHORDGFDUU\LQJFDSDFLW\RIDVWUXFWXUHLIWKLVFDSDFLW\LVOLPLWHGE\

² EULWWOHIDLOXUHRU

² IDLOXUHGXHWRLQVWDELOLW\

,QFDVHVZKHQDFWLRQHIIHFWPRGHOVDQGUHVLVWDQFHPRGHOVDUHDSSOLHGVHSDUDWHO\LQGHVLJQFDOFXODWLRQVERWKWKHVH
NLQGVRIPRGHOV VKRXOGLQSU LQFLSOHEHPXWXDOO\ FRQVLVWHQW+RZHYHULQPDQ\ FDVHVWKLVSULQFLSOHPD\EHPRGLILHG
RU VLPSOLILHG 7KXV IRU H[ DPSOHDEHQGLQJPRPHQW DFWLRQHIIHF W LQDF RQWLQXRXVEHDPPD\ EHF DOFXODWHG
DFFRUGLQJWRWKHWKHRU\RIHODVWLFLW\DQGWKHUHVLVWDQFHDFFRUGLQJWRDWKHRU\RISODVWLFLW\,QRWKHUFDVHVHVSHFLDOO\
IRUV HFRQGRUGHUDQGRWKHU QRQ OLQHDUHIIHF WVV XFKF DOFXODWLRQVF DQQRW EH DSSOLHG XQOHVV VSHFLDO SUHFDXWLRQV DUH
WDNHQ

0RGHOVIRUG\QDPLFUHVSRQVH
,QPRV WF DVHVWKHG\ QDPLFU HVSRQVHRIDV WUXFWXUHLV F DXVHGE\ DU DSLGY DULDWLRQ RI WKH PDJQLWXGH SRVLWLRQ RU
GLUHFWLRQRIDQDF WLRQ+RZHY HUDV XGGHQFKDQJH GHFUHDVH RIWKHV WLIIQHVVRUUHVLVWDQFHRIDV WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQW
PD\DOV RF DXVHG\ QDPLFEHKDY LRXU7KXV IRU H[ DPSOHWKH UHPRYDO RI D VWUXFWXUDO HOHPHQW PHQWLRQHG LQ  G
PD\SURGXFHG\QDPLFHIIHFWV

'\QDPLFDQDO\ VLVF DQEHSHU IRUPHGLQWKHWLPHGRPDLQDQGLQWKHIU HTXHQF\GRPDLQ,IWKHORDG LV GHVFULEHG LQ


VWDWLVWLFDOWHUPVLWLVDOVRWKHVWDWLVWLFDOGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHUHVSRQVHWKDWLVORRNHGIRU%DVHGRQWKLVGHVFULSWLRQRQH
PD\FDOFXODWHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIKDYLQJVRPHOLPLWVWDWHEHLQJH[FHHGHGLQDJLYHQUHIHUHQFHSHULRG

6WUXFWXUDOSU RSHUWLHVPD\ EHWLPH GHSHQGHQWDV ZHOODV WLPH LQGHSHQGHQW,QDIXOOSU REDELOLVWLF DQDO\VLV WKHVH
HIIHFWVZLOOEHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW

7KHPRGHOVIRUG\QDPLFDQDO\VLVFRQVLVWVRI

² DVWLIIQHVVPRGHO

² DGDPSLQJPRGHODQG

² DQLQHUWLDPRGHO

7KHV WLIIQHVVPRGHOLV SU LQFLSDOO\WKHV DPHDV IRU V WDWLFDQDO\ VLV 'XH WR G\QDPLF LQIOXHQFHV WKHUH PLJKW EH DQ
LQFUHDVHLQVWLIIQHVVDOWKRXJKUHSHWLWLRQVPD\DOVRFDXVHGHWHULRUDWLRQDQGDGHF UHDVHLQV WLIIQHVV)RU QRQOLQHDU
PDWHULDOPRGHOVWKHUHLVQRUPDOO\DVWUDLQUDWHGHSHQGHQWLQFUHDVHLQ\LHOGVWUHQJWK

,QHUWLDIRUFHVUHVXOWIURPDFFHOHUDWLRQRIWKHPDVVRIWKHV WUXFWXUHQRQ VWUXFWXUDOPDV VHVDQGWKHDGGHGPDV VRI


WKHVXUURXQGLQJIOXLGDLURUVRLO7KHVHDGGLWLRQDOPDVVFRQWULEXWLRQVRULJLQDWHIURPLQWHUDFWLRQVRIWKHVWUXFWXUHZLWK
LWVHQYLURQPHQW,WPD\EHQHFHVVDU\WRSHUIRUPG\QDPLFDQDO\VLVFRQVLGHULQJGLIIHUHQWPDVVFRQWULEXWLRQV

'DPSLQJPD\EHWKHUHVXOWRIPDQ\GLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIPHFKDQLVP7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWPHFKDQLVPVDUH

² PDWHULDOGDPSLQJIRULQVWDQFHIURPHODVWLFQDWXUHRUIURPSODVWLFPDWHULDOEHKDYLRXU

² GDPSLQJGXHWRIULFWLRQLQFRQQHFWLRQV


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

² GDPSLQJGXHWRQRQVWUXFWXUDOPHPEHUV

² JHRPHWULFDOGDPSLQJ

² PDWHULDOGDPSLQJLQWKHVRLO

² DHURG\QDPLFDQGK\GURG\QDPLFGDPSLQJ

7KHODWWHUPHFKDQLVPVDUHDJDLQH[ DPSOHVRILQWHU DFWLRQEHWZHHQWKHV WUXFWXUHDQGWKHHQYLURQPHQW,QSDUWLFXODU


FDVHVWKHVHGDPSLQJWHU PVPD\DOVREHQHJDWLY HOHDGLQJWRDQHQHU J\IOX[IURPWKHHQYLURQPHQWWRWKHVWUXFWXUH
([DPSOHVDUHJDOORSLQJIOXWWHUDQGWRVRPHH[WHQWYRUWH[LQGXFHGUHVSRQVH

$ SDUWLFXODU H[DPSOH RI WKHILU VWF DWHJRU\PHQWLRQHGDERY HLV F RQFHUQHGZLWKWKHG\ QDPLFU HVSRQVHLQV HYHUH
HDUWKTXDNHV,QWKLVFDVHLWPD\EHQHFHVVDU\WRWDNHL QWRDFFRXQWF\FO LFGHJUDGDWLRQDQGFRUUHVSRQGL QJK\VWHULF
HQHUJ\GLVVLSDWLRQ

3UDFWLFDOGHVLJQZLOOQRWDOZD\ VUHTXLUHDIXOOG\ QDPLFDQDO\VLVHYHQLILPSRU WDQWG\QDPLFHIIHFWVDUHSUHVHQW) RU


PDQ\ FDVHVLWLV SRV VLEOHWRPDN HV LPSOLILFDWLRQV7KHPRV WF RPPRQSU RFHGXUHLV WRF DOFXODWHWKHTXDV LVWDWLF
UHVSRQVH DQGWRPXOWLSO\ WKLV E\ DG\ QDPLFDPSOLILF DWLRQIDF WRUZKLF KLV DIXQF WLRQRIWKHGRPLQDWLQJQDWXU DO
IUHTXHQF\DQGWKHUHODWLYHGDPSLQJ)RUVSHFLDOFODVVHVRIEXLOGLQJVHYHQIXUWKHUVLPSOLILFDWLRQVDUHSRVVLEOH

0RGHOVIRUIDWLJXH
,IDVWUXFWXUHLVVXEMHFWHGWRVXFKNLQGVRIDFWLRQVZKLFKPD\FDXVHIDWLJXHLWVKDOOEHYHULILHGWKDWWKHUHOLDELOLW\ZLWK
UHVSHFWWRIDWLJXHLVVXIILFLHQW7KHPRGHOV ZKLFKFDQEHXV HGIRUWKHF DOFXODWLRQRIWKHU HVLVWDQFHZLWKU HJDUGWR
IDWLJXHDUHVWURQJO\GHSHQGHQWRQWKHW\ SHRIPDWHU LDOVLQWKHV WUXFWXUH 7KLVPHDQVWKDWQRJHQHUDOUXOHVRQVXFK
PRGHOV FDQ EH JLYHQ  ,QPDQ\ F DVHVWKHPRGHOV F DQEHEDV HGRQHPSLU LFDOO\N QRZQU HODWLRQVEHWZHHQWKH
UHVLVWDQFHDQGWKHQXPEHURIO RDGF\FOHVRURQIUDFWXUHPHFKDQL FV'XH UHJDUGVKRXOGEHJLYHQWRWKHHIIHFWVRI
LQVSHFWLRQDQGPDLQWHQDQFH

127(²6HHDQQH[&

0RGHOXQFHUWDLQWLHV

$F DOFXODWLRQPRGHOLV DSK\ VLFDOO\EDV HGRU HPSLU LFDOU HODWLRQEHWZHHQU HOHYDQWY DULDEOHVZKLF K DUH LQ JHQHUDO
UDQGRPYDULDEOHV

< I ;  ;   ; Q  

ZKHUH

< LVWKHSUHGLFWLRQE\WKHPRGHO

I  LVWKHPRGHOIXQFWLRQ

;L DUHWKHEDVLFYDULDEOHV

7KHPRGHO I  PD\EHF RPSOHWHDQGH[ DFWVRWKDWLIWKHY DOXHVRI ;L DUHNQRZQLQDSDU WLFXODUH[SHULPHQW IURP


PHDVXUHPHQWV WKHRXWF RPH < FDQ EH SUHGLFWHG ZLWKRXW HUURU,QPRV WF DVHVWKHPRGHOZLOOEHLQF RPSOHWHDQG
LQH[DFW7KLVPD\EHWKHUHVXOWRIODFNRINQRZOHGJHRUDGHOLEHUDWHVLPSOLILFDWLRQRIWKHPRGHOIRU WKHFRQYHQLHQFH
RIWKHGHVLJQHU7KHUHDORXWFRPH<¢RIWKHH[SHULPHQWFDQEHZULWWHQDV

< ¢ I ¢ ;  ; Q   q   q P  

qLDUHUHIHUUHGWRDV SDUDPHWHUVZKLFKFRQWDLQWKHPRGHOXQF HUWDLQWLHVDQGDU HWUHDWHGDVUDQGRPYDULDEOHV7KHLU


VWDWLVWLFDOSU RSHUWLHVF DQLQPRV WF DVHVEHGHU LYHGIU RPH[ SHULPHQWVRU REV HUYDWLRQV)RU U HVLVWDQFHPRGHOV  WKH
PHDQRIWKHV HSDUDPHWHUVVKRXOGLQSU LQFLSOHEHGHWHU PLQHGLQV XFKDZD\ WKDW RQDYHUDJHWKHFDOFXODWLRQPRGHO
FRUUHFWO\SUHGLFWVWKHWHVWUHVXOWV

127(²)RUIXUWKHULQIRUPDWLRQVHHDQQH['


‹(6$(6,62 (

,QPRVWF DVHVPRGHOV V SHFLDOO\IRU PXODWHGIRU GHV LJQSXU SRVHVDU HEDV HGRQDV VXPSWLRQV QRUPDOO\RQWKHV DIH
VLGH ZKLFKGRQRWUHIOHFWWKHF RQGLWLRQVRF FXUULQJLQU HDOLW\,QV XFKF DVHVWKHHY DOXDWLRQRIPRGHOXQF HUWDLQWLHV
DFFRUGLQJWRWKHSU LQFLSOHVGHV FULEHGDERY HV KRXOGEHWDN HQLQWRDF FRXQW$QH[ DPSOHRIV XFKDQDV VXPSWLRQ
ZRXOGEHQHJOHF WLQJWKHWHQV LOHVWUHQJWKRIF RQFUHWHLQF DOFXODWLQJWKHEHQGLQJU HVLVWDQFHRIDU HLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWH
EHDP

127(²7KHORZHUHVWLPDWHRIUHVLVWDQFHGRHVQRWDOZD\VOHDGWRWKHVDIHVLGH)RUH[DP SOHYHULILFDWLRQRIVKHDUIDLOXUHLV
SUHIHUDEO\FDUULHGRXWE\WKHKLJKHUHVWLPDWHRIEHQGLQJVWUHQJWKVRIERWKHQGVRIWKHPHPEHU

'HVLJQEDVHGRQH[SHULPHQWDOPRGHOV

,QWKRVHFDVHVZKHUHQRDGHTXDWHFDOFXODWLRQPRGHOLVDYDLODEOHSDUWRIWKHGHV LJQSURFHGXUHPD\EHSHU IRUPHG


RQWKHEDVLVRIH[SHULPHQWDOPRGHOV7KHVHWXSDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHWHVWVVKRXOGEHSHUIRUPHGLQVXFKDZD\WKDW
WKHV WUXFWXUHDV GHV LJQHGKDV DWOHDV WWKHV DPHU HOLDELOLW\ZLWKU HVSHFW WR DOO UHOHYDQW OLPLW VWDWHV DQG ORDG
FRQGLWLRQVDVVWUXFWXUHVGHVLJQHGRQWKHEDV LVRIFDOFXODWLRQPRGHOVRQO\&RQGLWLRQVZKLFKDUHQRWPHWGXU LQJWKH
WHVW HJORQJWHUPEHKDYLRXU VKRXOGEHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWVHSDUDWHO\

([SHULPHQWDOPRGHOVPD\EHXVHGWRHYDOXDWH

² ORDGVRQWKHVWUXFWXUH HJZLQGWXQQHOWHVWV 

² VWUXFWXUDOUHVSRQVHXQGHUORDGLQJRUDFFLGHQWDOHYHQW

² VWUHQJWKRUVWLIIQHVVRIDVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQW

127(²&KHFNVRQPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVRURWKHUFRQWUROWHVWVDUHQRWFRQVLGHUHGDVGHVLJQEDVHGRQH[SHULPHQWDOPRGHOV

%HIRUH WHVWLQJ RQH VKRXOG VHWXSDV IDU DV SRV VLEOHDF DOFXODWLRQPRGHOF RYHULQJWKHU HOHYDQWU DQJHRIWKH
YDULDEOHVDQGFOHDUO\LQGLFDWHWKHXQNQRZQFRHIILFLHQWVRUTXDQWLWLHVWKDWV KRXOGEHHY DOXDWHGIURPWKHWHV WV,IWKLV
LVQRWSRVVLEOHDVHWRISUHOLPLQDU\WHVWVVKRXOGEHFDUULHGRXW

5HOHYDQWEDVLFYDULDEOHVVXFKDVDFWLRQVPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVDQGJHRPHWU LFDOSURSHUWLHVHYHQZKHQQRWH[SOLFLWO\
SUHVHQWLQWKHFDOFXODWLRQPRGHOVKRXOGSUHIHUDEO\EHPHDVXUHGGLUHFWO\RULQGLUHFWO\IRUHYHU\WHVW,IWKHY DOXHVRI
WKHUDQGRPYDULDEOHVDUHPHDVXUHGWKHV DPSOHQHHGQRW QHFHVVDULO\EHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHLQWKHVHFDVHVRQHPD\
IRU LQVWDQFHV HOHFWSU RFHGXUHVWRDWWDLQY DOXHVLQWKHY LFLQLW\RIWKHHV WLPDWHGGHV LJQY DOXH,IWKHY DOXHVRIWKH
UDQGRPYDULDEOHVLQWKHWHVWDUHQRWPHDVXUHGRQHVKRXOGHQVXUHWKDWWKH\IROORZIURPDUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVDPSOH

7KHHYDOXDWLRQRIWHVWUHVXOWVVKRXOGEHGRQHRQWKHEDVLVRIVWDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGV,QSULQFLSOHWKHWHVWVVKRXOGOHDGWR
DSU REDELOLW\GLV WULEXWLRQIRU WKHV HOHFWHGXQN QRZQTXDQWLWLHV LQF OXGLQJWKHV WDWLVWLFDOXQF HUWDLQWLHV  %DVHG RQ WKLV
GLVWULEXWLRQRQHPD\GHULYHGHVLJQYDOXHVDQGSDUWLDOIDFWRUVWREHXVHGLQWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDW

127(²)XUWKHUGHWDLOVDUHJLYHQLQDQQH['

:KHUHWKHHY DOXDWLRQRIWHV WVJLY HVU HVXOWVZKLF KDU HLQF RPSDWLEOHZLWKH[ SHULHQFH WKH GHWDLOHG UHDVRQV IRU
GHYLDWLRQVKRXOGEHORRNHGIRUDQGUHFRUGHG

3ULQFLSOHVRISUREDELOLW\EDVHGGHVLJQ

*HQHUDO

,WLVDVVXPHGLQWKLV FODXVHWKDWWKHEDV LFYDULDEOHV VHH DUHFRQVLGHUHGDVUDQGRPYDULDEOHVDQGDU HWUHDWHG


ZLWKSUREDELOLVWLFSURFHGXUHV

6XFKSURFHGXUHVJLYHLIWKHVWUXFWXUHDQGWKHORDGVDUHJLYHQDZHOOGHILQHGSUREDELOLVWLFPHDVXUHRIUHOLDELOLW\ HJ
SUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUH ,QWKHPDMRULW\RIFDVHVWKLVYDOXHVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGRQO\DVDUHIHUHQFHYDOXH+RZHYHU
WKHYDOXHFDQEHXVHGIRUFRQVLVWHQWFRPSDULVRQVEHWZHHQYDULRXVGHVLJQVLWXDWLRQVDQGKHQFHIRUFDOLEUDWLRQVZLWK
UHJDUG WR D VSHFLILHGGHJU HHRIU HOLDELOLW\7 KHGHJU HHRIU HOLDELOLW\F DQEHGLIIHU HQWLDWHGDF FRUGLQJWRWKH
FRQVHTXHQFHVRIIDLOXUHDVLQGLFDWHGLQ


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

$SUREDELOLVWLFGHVLJQPHDQVWKDWDVWUXFWXUHLVGHVLJQHGVRWKDWIRUH[DPSOHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHSIGRHVQRW
H[FHHGDVSHFLILHGYDOXHSIVRYHUVRPHVSHFLILHGSHULRGRIWLPH

S I  £  SIV  

)DLOXUHLV DV VRFLDWHGZLWKWKHWU DQVLWLRQRIDOLPLWV WDWHIU RPWKHGHV LUHGV WDWH WR WKH XQGHVLUHG VWDWH DFFRUGLQJ WR
FODXVH:LWKUHIHUHQFHWRHTXDWLRQV  DQG  WKHXQGHVLUHGVWDWHLVGHILQHGE\WKHOLPLWVWDWHIXQFWLRQ

J ; <   

ZKHUH;DUHWKHEDVLFYDULDEOHVZKLFKDUHUHOHYDQWWRWKHSUREOHP

,Q JHQHUDOWKHEDV LFY DULDEOHVZKLF KGHV FULEHY DULDEOHDF WLRQVDQGHQY LURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQF HVV KRXOGEHGHV FULEHG
ZLWKWKHDLGRIU DQGRPSURFHVVHV,QPDQ\ FDVHVKRZHYHUDGHV FULSWLRQDVD UDQGRPYDULDEOHZLWKDSUREDELOLW\
GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQIRUWKHPD[LPXPZLWKLQDJLYHQUHIHUHQFHSHULRGPD\EHVXIILFLHQW2WKHUEDVLFYDULDEOHV VXFK
DVPDWHULDOVXEMHFWWRFRUURVLRQ PD\DOVREHWLPHGHSHQGHQW

7KHPRGHOXQFHUWDLQW\SDUDPHWHUVqDFFRUGLQJWRDUHWUHDWHGDVUDQGRPYDULDEOHVLQSULQFLSOHLQWKHVDPHZD\
DVWKHEDVLFYDULDEOHV

)RUPRVWXOWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWHVDQGIRUVRPHVHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHFDQEHZULWWHQ

SI   S>  J ;      @  

,QWKHFDVHRIWLPHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVWKHPLQLPXPRIJ ; ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWLPHVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHG

)RUVRPHVSHFLDOXOWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWHVDQGIRUPDQ\VHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHVWKHILUVWH[FHVVRIDOLPLWVWDWHGRHVQRW
PHDQIDLOXUH,QVXFKFDVHVIDLOXUHRFFXUVDFFRUGLQJWRRQO\LIVRPHDGGLWLRQDOFRQGLWLRQVDSSO\DQGWKHIDLOXUH
FULWHULDKDYHWREHIRUPXODWHGIRUHDFKSDUWLFXODUFDVH

'XHWRWKHGHSHQGHQF HXSRQWLPH SIVKRXOGEHU HIHUUHGWRDF HUWDLQ DSULRULVSHFLILHGSHULRGRIWLPHWKH UHIHUHQFH


SHULRG/LIHWLPHSUREDELOLWLHVPD\EHXVHGLIHF RQRPLFFRQVHTXHQFHVDUHGHWHUPLQLQJ,IDIDLOXU HFDQEHH[ SHFWHG
WRHQGDQJHUSHRSOHRWKHUUHIHUHQFHSHULRGVPLJKWEHXVHG

7KHIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\SIPD\EHVXEVWLWXWHGE\DUHOLDELOLW\LQGH[bWKURXJKWKHGHILQLWLRQ

b - F - S I  

ZKHUHF -LVWKHLQYHUVHVWDQGDUGL]HGQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ

127(²(TXDWLRQ  LVDGHILQLWLRQ1RWKLQJLVVDLGDERXWWKHDFFXUDF\RISIDQGb)RUIXUWKHUGLVFXVVLRQVHHDQQH[(

7KHSUREDELOLVWLFPHWKRGPD\SULPDULO\EHDSSOLHGWRF DOLEUDWHWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDWRXWOLQHGLQFODXVH8QGHU
WKHVSHFLDOFLUFXPVWDQFHVGHVFULEHGLQWKHSUREDELOLVWLFPHWKRGPD\EHDSSOLHGLQDGLU HFWGHVLJQWRDVSHFLILHG
GHJUHHRIUHOLDELOLW\

6\VWHPVUHOLDELOLW\YHUVXVHOHPHQWUHOLDELOLW\

)URPDSUREDELOLVWLFSRLQWRIY LHZDQHOHPHQWF DQEHF RQVLGHUHGWRKDY HRQHV LQJOHGRPLQDWLQJIDLOXU HPRGH$


V\VWHPPD\KDYHPRUHWKDQRQHIDLOXUHPRGHDQGRUFRQVLVWRIWZRRUPRUHHOHPHQWVHDFKRQHZLWKDVLQJOHIDLOXUH
PRGH

3UREDELOLVWLF VWUXFWXUDO GHVLJQ LV SULPDULO\ DSSOLHGWRHOHPHQWEHKDY LRXUDQGOLPLWV WDWHV VHUYLFHDELOLW\²DQG


XOWLPDWH IDLOXUH 6 \VWHPVEHKDYL RXUL VRIFRQFHUQEHFDXVHV\VWHPVIDL OXUHL VXVXDO O\WKHPRVWVHUL RXV
FRQVHTXHQFHRIVWUXFWXUDOIDLOXUH,WL VWKHUHIRUHRIL QWHUHVWWRDVVHVVWKHO LNHOLKRRGRIV\VWHPVIDL OXUHIROORZLQJDQ
LQLWLDOHOHPHQWIDLOXUH,QSDUWL FXODULWLVQHFHVVDU\WRGHWHUPL QHWKHV\VWHPVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVLQUHODWLRQWRGDPDJH
WROHUDQFHRU V WUXFWXUDOLQWHJU LW\ZLWKU HVSHFWWRDF FLGHQWDOHY HQWV7 KHHOHPHQWU HOLDELOLW\ UHTXLUHPHQWV VKRXOG
GHSHQGXSRQWKHV\VWHPVFKDUDFWHULVWLFV


‹(6$ (6,62 (

$V\VWHPVDQDO\VLVVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHFDUULHGRXWWRHVWDEOLVK

² WKHUHGXQGDQF\ DOWHUQDWLYHORDGFDUU\LQJSDWKV 

² WKHVWDWHDQGFRPSOH[LW\RIWKHVWUXFWXUH PXOWLSOHIDLOXUHPRGHV 

127(²6\VWHPVUHOLDELOLW\DQDO\VLVVKRXOGKRZHYHUEHFDUULHGRXWZ LWKGXHUHFRJQLWLRQRIWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQKHUHQWLQWKH
PHWKRGVFXUUHQWO\DYDLODEOHDQGVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHXVHGZLWKFDXWLRQ

6SHFLILHGGHJUHHVRIUHTXLUHGUHOLDELOLW\

6SHFLILHGPD[LPXPDFFHSWDEOHIDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHVVKRXOGGHSHQGRQWKHFRQVHTXHQFHDQGWKHQDWXUHRIIDLOXUHWKH
HFRQRPLFORVVHVWKHVRFLDOLQFRQYHQLHQFHDQGWKHDPRXQWRIH[ SHQVHDQGHIIRUWUHTXLUHGWRUHGXFHWKHSUREDELOLW\
RIIDLOXUH7KH\VKRXOGEHF DOLEUDWHGDJDLQVWZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGFDVHVWKDWDU HNQRZQIURPSDVWH[SHULHQFHWRKDY H
DGHTXDWHUHOLDELOLW\+HQFHWKHVSHFLILHGIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\VKRXOGGHSHQGRQWKHUHOLDELOLW\FODVV VHH 

7KH VSHFLILHGIDLOXU HSU REDELOLWLHV SIVZKLF KDU HU HOHYDQWIRU XOWLPDWHDQGV HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWV WDWHGHV LJQV KRXOG
UHIOHFWWKHIDF WWKDWF ULWHULDIRUVXFKOLPLWV WDWHVGRQRWDF FRXQWIRUJURVVHUURUV7KHVHSUREDELOLWLHVDUHQRWGLU HFWO\
UHODWHGWRWKHREVHUYHGIDLOXUHUDWHZKLFKLVPDLQO\FDXVHGE\JURVVHUURUV

:KHQGHDOLQJZLWKWLPH GHSHQGHQWV WUXFWXUDOSU RSHUWLHVWKHHIIHF WRIWKHLQV SHFWLRQDQGU HSDLUSU RFHGXUHV RQ WKH
SUREDELOLW\ RI IDLOXUH VKRXOG EH WDNHQLQWRDF FRXQW7 KLVPD\ OHDGWRDGMXV WPHQWVWRV SHFLILHGY DOXHVF RQGLWLRQDO
XSRQWKHUHVXOWVRILQVSHFWLRQV6SHFLILHGIDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHVVKRXOGDOZD\VEHFRQVLGHUHGLQUHODWLRQWRWKHDGRSWHG
FDOFXODWLRQDQGSUREDELOLVWLFPRGHOVDQGWKHPHWKRGRIDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHGHJUHHRIUHOLDELOLW\

6SHFLILHGIDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHVVKRXOGDOZD\VEHGHILQHGIRUVRPHUHIHUHQFHSHULRG'HSHQGLQJRQWKHW\ SHRIOLPLW
VWDWHWKLVFRXOGEHWKHGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIHDSHULRGRIRQH\HDURUDQDUELWUDU\SRLQWLQWLPH

)RUUHYHUVLEOHVHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWV WDWHVWKHUHPD\DOVREHU HTXLUHPHQWVRQWKHIU HTXHQF\UDWHRISDVVLQJWKHOLPLW


VWDWH VHH 

127(²)RUIXUWKHULQIRUPDWLRQVHHDQQH[(

&DOFXODWLRQRIIDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHV

*HQHUDO
$QLPSRU WDQWV SHFLDOF DVHRIWKHIDLOXU HIXQF WLRQ  ZKHU HDOOY DULDEOHV ;DU HWLPH LQYDULDQWLV F RQVLGHUHG
VHH ,QWKLVFDVHWKHYDULDEOHV;DUHUDQGRPYDULDEOHVDQGQRWUDQGRPSURFHVVHV

:KHQWKHUHOLDELOLW\SUREOHPLVWLPHGHSHQGHQWLWLVRIWHQSRVVLEOHWRWUDQVIRUPLWWRDWLPHLQYDULDQWRQHLQWHUPVRI
UDQGRPYDULDEOHV6HH

7LPHLQYDULDQWUHOLDELOLW\SUREOHPV
7KUHHW\SHVRIPHWKRGPD\LQJHQHUDOEHXVHGWRFRPSXWHSIZKHQ;DUHWLPHLQYDULDQWYDULDEOHVQDPHO\

D DQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGVIRUH[DPSOH)2506250 )LUVW6HFRQG2UGHU5HOLDELOLW\0HWKRGV 

E 0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQDQG

F QXPHULFDOLQWHJUDWLRQ

7UDQVIRUPDWLRQRIWLPHYDULDQWLQWRWLPHLQYDULDQWSUREOHPV
7ZRFODVVHVRIWLPHGHSHQGHQWSUREOHPVDUHHQYLVDJHGQDPHO\WKRVHDVVRFLDWHGZLWK

² RYHUORDGIDLOXUHDQG

² FXPXODWLYHIDLOXUH


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

,QWKHFDVHRIRYHUORDGIDLOXUHDVLQJOHDF WLRQSU RFHVVPD\ EHU HSODFHGE\ DU DQGRPY DULDEOHZLWKDPHDQY DOXH


HTXDO WR LWV H[SHFWHG PD[LPXP YDOXH RYHU D FKRVHQU HIHUHQFHSHU LRG,IWKHU HLV PRU HWKDQRQHU DQGRPDF WLRQ
SURFHVVWKH\VKRXOGEHFRPELQHGWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHVFDOHVRIIOXFWXDWLRQRIDOODFWLRQSURFHVVHV

127()XUWKHUGHWDLOVDUHJLYHQLQDQQH[)

,QWKHF DVHRIF XPXODWLYHIDLOXUHV IDWLJXHFRUURVLRQHWF WKHWRWDOKLV WRU\RIWKHORDGXS WRWKHSRLQWRIIDLOXUHLVRI


LPSRUWDQFH

127()DLOXUHFRXOGEHWKHFRPELQHGUHVXOWRIDFXPXODWLYHGDPDJHSURFHVVDQGDQRWKHUORDGZLWKDUHODWLYHO\KLJKYDOXH

,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRISUREDELOLW\EDVHGGHVLJQ

7KHSUREDELOLVWLFPHWKRGPD\EHGLUHFWO\DSSOLHGWRDFKLHYHGHVLJQVZLWKGHJUHHVRIUHOLDELOLW\FORVHWRWKHV SHFLILHG
YDOXHV

6XFKDQDSSURDFKFRXOGEHXVHGFRQWLQJHQWXSRQVWDQGDUGL]HG

² XQFHUWDLQW\PHDVXUHV

² UHOLDELOLW\PHWKRGV

,QVWHDGRIXVLQJDGLUHFWSUREDELOLVWLFPHWKRGWKHWZRIROORZLQJVLPSOLILFDWLRQVPD\EHXVHG

D GHVLJQYDOXHPHWKRGDQG

E SDUWLDOIDFWRUPHWKRG

,QERWKFDVHVWKHPHWKRGVDUHFDOLEUDWHGLQV XFKDZD\ WKDWIRU FHUWDLQUDQJHVRIV WUXFWXUDOOD\RXWVDFWLRQVHWFD


GHVLJQLVREWDLQHGWKDWLVVXIILFLHQWO\FORVHWRWKHGHVLJQREWDLQHGE\WKHGLUHFWSUREDELOLVWLFPHWKRG

127(²'HVLJQYDOXHP HWKRGVDQGFRGHFDOLEUDWLRQDUHRXWOLQHGLQDQQH[(7KHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUP DWLVGHDOW ZLWK LQ


FODXVH

3DUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDW

'HVLJQFRQGLWLRQVDQGGHVLJQYDOXHV

7KHIRU PDWRISDU WLDOIDF WRUVV HSDUDWHVWKHLQIOXHQF HVRIXQF HUWDLQWLHVDQGY DULDELOLWLHVRU LJLQDWLQJIU RPGLIIHU HQW
FDXVHV E\ PHDQV RI GHVLJQ YDOXHVDV VLJQHGWREDV LFY DULDEOHV:LWKU HIHUHQFHWRWKHGHV LJQF RQGLWLRQLV
H[SUHVVHGLQWHUPVRIGHVLJQYDOXHVHJDV

J ) G I G  D G q G &  g Q  ≥    

ZKHUH

)G DUHGHVLJQYDOXHVRIDFWLRQV

IG DUHGHVLJQYDOXHVRIPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHV

DG DUHGHVLJQYDOXHVRIJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV

qG DUHGHVLJQYDOXHVRIWKHYDULDEOHVqZKLFKDFFRXQWIRUWKHPRGHOXQFHUWDLQWLHVDFFRUGLQJWRHTXDWLRQ  

& DUHVHUYLFHDELOLW\FRQVWUDLQWV

gQ LVDF RHIILFLHQWE\ ZKLF KWKHLPSRU WDQFHRIWKHV WUXFWXUHDQGWKHF RQVHTXHQFHVRI IDLOXUH LQFOXGLQJ WKH
VLJQLILFDQFHRIWKHW\SHRIIDLOXU HDU HWDN HQLQWRDF FRXQW7KHY DOXH gQF RXOGEHPDGHGHSHQGHQWRQWKH
VSHFLILHGGHJUHHRIUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHDFWXDOVWUXFWXUHRUVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQW


‹(6$ (6,62 (

(TXDWLRQ  V KRXOGEHU HJDUGHGRQO\ DV DV \PEROLFGHV FULSWLRQRIWKHSU LQFLSOHV (DFK V\PERO LQ HTXDWLRQ 
PD\UHSUHVHQWDVLQJOHYDULDEOHRUDYHFWRUFRQWDLQLQJVHYHUDOYDULDEOHV

7KHEDVLFYDULDEOHVDUHVHSDUDWHGLQWR
² SULPDU\EDVLFYDULDEOHVDQG
² RWKHUEDVLFYDULDEOHV

7KHSULPDU\EDVLFYDULDEOHVDUHWKRVHZKRVHYDOXHVDUHRISULPDU\LPSRUWDQFHIRUWKHGHVLJQUHVXOWV7KH\VKRXOG
EHVSHFLILHGLQWKRVHFRGHVZKLFKWUHDWDFWLRQVDQGVWUXFWXUHVRIVSHFLILFPDWHULDOV

127(²)RUWKHXOWLP DWHOLP LWVWDWHRIDSUHVWUHVVHGFRQFUHWHEHDP  IRU H[DPSOH WKH VWUHQJWKV RI FRQFUHWH DQG VWHHO DUH
SULPDU\EDVLFYDULDEOHVEXWWKHP RGXOLRIHODVWLFLW\DUHQRQSULP DU\ EDVLF YDULDEOHV  $FWLRQV DUH QRUPDOO\ SULPDU\ EDVLF
YDULDEOHV

7KHGHVLJQYDOXHVRIWKHSULPDU\EDVLFYDULDEOHV)IDDQGqDUHREWDLQHGLQWKHIROORZLQJZD\
) G g I  ) U  

I N
I G   
gP

DG  D N  ±  D D  

qG  g '  RU
  g'  

ZKHUH

)U DUHWKHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXHVRIDFWLRQV VHH 

IN DUHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVRIPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHV VHH 

DN DUHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVRIJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV VHH 

gI DUHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUDFWLRQV

gP DUHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDWHULDOV

DD DUHDGGLWLYHJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV

g ' DUHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPRGHOXQFHUWDLQWLHV

g IWDNHVDFFRXQWRI

² WKHSRVVLELOLW\RIXQIDYRXUDEOHGHYLDWLRQVRIWKHDFWLRQYDOXHVIURPWKHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXHVDQG

² WKHXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHDFWLRQPRGHO

gPWDNHVDFFRXQWRI

² WKHSRVVLELOLW\RIXQIDYRXUDEOHGHYLDWLRQVRIWKHPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVIURPWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVDQG

² XQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHFRQYHUVLRQIDFWRUV

DDWDNHVDFFRXQWRI

² WKHSRV VLELOLW\RIXQIDY RXUDEOHGHY LDWLRQVRIWKHJHRPHWU LFDOSDU DPHWHUVIU RP WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLF VSHFLILHG
YDOXHVLQF OXGLQJWKHLPSRU WDQFHRIY DULDWLRQVLQ D WKHWROHU DQFHV SHFLILFDWLRQVIRU  DDQGWKHF RQWURORIWKH
GHYLDWLRQVIURPDDQG

² WKHFXPXODWLYHHIIHFWRIDVLPXOWDQHRXVRFFXUUHQFHRIVHYHUDOJHRPHWULFDOGHYLDWLRQV


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

g ' WDNHV DFFRXQWRIXQF HUWDLQWLHVRIPRGHOV DV IDU DV F DQEHIRXQGIU RPPHDV XUHPHQWVRU F RPSDUDWLYH
FDOFXODWLRQV

)RU EDVLFY DULDEOHVRWKHU WKDQWKHSU LPDU\RQHV WKHSDU WLDOIDF WRUVDU H DSU LRULV HWWRXQLW\ DQGWKHDGGLWLY H
TXDQWLWLHVWR]HURLHWKHGHVLJQYDOXHVDUHHTXDOWRWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHV,QVRPHFDVHVPHDQYDOXHVPD\EH
XVHG

7KHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUDFWLRQVPD\LQFOXGHWKHHIIHFWRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVRIDQDF WLRQHIIHFWPRGHO,QD VLPLODUZD\WKH


SDUWLDO IDFWRUV IRU UHVLVWDQFH PD\ LQFOXGH WKHHIIHF WRIXQF HUWDLQWLHVLQWKHJHRPHWU LFDOSDU DPHWHUVDQGLQWKH
UHVLVWDQFHPRGHOV,QVXFKFDVHVWKHQRWDWLRQVg IDQGg PVKRXOGEHVXEVWLWXWHGE\g )DQGg 0UHVSHFWLYHO\

7KHYDOXHVRIWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVGHSHQGRQWKHGHVLJQVLWXDWLRQDQGWKHOLPLWVWDWHFRQVLGHUHG

,IWKHGHIRU PDWLRQFDSDFLW\LVJRYHUQLQJWKHGHV LJQHTXDWLRQ  KDVWREHJLYHQDGLIIHUHQWIRUPDQGSDUWRIWKH


YDULDEOHVKDY HWREHV XEVWLWXWHGE\ RWKHU N LQGVRIY DULDEOHV7KLV PD\ IRU H[ DPSOH EH WKH FDVH LQ GHVLJQ IRU
VHLVPLFVLWXDWLRQV

5HSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXHVRIDFWLRQV

$ SHUPDQHQWDFW LRQKDV RIWHQDXQLTXHF KDUDFWHULVWLFY DOXH:KHQWKHDF WLRQU HIHUVWRWKHV HOIZHLJKW RI WKH
VWUXFWXUHWKHY DOXH *NV KRXOGEHREWDLQHGIU RPWKHV SHFLILHGY DOXHVRIJHRPHWU LFDO TXDQWLWLHV DQG WKH PHDQ XQLW
PDVVRIWKHPDWHULDO+RZHYHULQVRPHFDVHVLWPD\EHSUHIHUDEOHWRGHILQHWZRY DOXHVRQHXSSHUDQGRQHORZHU
FKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHRIDSHUPDQHQWDFWLRQ

$YDULDEOHDFWLRQKDVWKHIROORZLQJUHSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXHV

² WKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH4N

² WKHFRPELQDWLRQYDOXH\Y4N

² WKHIUHTXHQWYDOXHY4N

² WKHTXDVLSHUPDQHQWYDOXHY4N

7KHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHLVFKRVHQVRWKDWLWF DQEHF RQVLGHUHGWRKDY HDV SHFLILHGSUREDELOLW\RIEHLQJH[ FHHGHG


WRZDUGVXQIDYRXUDEOHYDOXHVGXULQJDFKRVHQUHIHUHQFHSHULRG

7KHFRPELQDWLRQYDOXHVDUHFKRVHQVRWKDWWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHDFWLRQHIIHFWYDOXHVFDXVHGE\WKHFRPELQDWLRQ
ZLOOEHH[FHHGHGLVDSSUR[LPDWHO\WKHVDPHDVZKHQDVLQJOHDFWLRQLVFRQVLGHUHG

7KHIUHTXHQWYDOXHLVGHWHUPLQHGVRWKDW

² WKH WRWDO WLPHZLWKLQDF KRVHQSHU LRGRIWLPHGXU LQJZKLF KLWLV H[ FHHGHGLV RQO\ DV PDOOJLY HQSDU WRIWKH
FKRVHQSHULRGRIWLPHRU

² WKHIUHTXHQF\RILWVH[FHVVLVOLPLWHGWRDJLYHQVPDOOYDOXH

127(²7KHUH PD\ LQ VRPHFDVHVEHWZ RRUP RUHGLIIHUHQWIUHTXHQWYDOXHVIRUWKHVDP HORDGDVVRFLDWHGZ LWKGLIIHUHQW


GHVLJQVLWXDWLRQV

7KHTXDVLSHUPDQHQWYDOXHLVGHWHUPLQHGVRWKDWWKHWRWDOWLPHZLWKLQDF KRVHQSHULRGRIWLPHGXU LQJZKLFKLWLV


H[FHHGHGLVRIWKHPDJQLWXGHRIKDOIWKHFKRVHQSHULRG

$QDFFLGHQWDODFWLRQPD\KDYHDXQLTXHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH$N

&KDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVRISURSHUWLHVRIPDWHULDOVLQFOXGLQJVRLOV

3URSHUWLHVRIPDWHULDOVDUHGHILQHGIRUVRPHUHOHYDQWYROXPHRIPDWHULDODQGDUHUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKHLUFKDUDFWHULVWLF
YDOXHV)RUDSU RGXFHGPDWHULDOWKHF KDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVKRXOGLQSU LQFLSOHEHSU HVHQWHGDVDQ DSULRULVSHFLILHG


‹(6$ (6,62 (

IUDFWLOHRIWKHVWDWLVWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHPDWHULDOSURSHUW\EHLQJVXSSOLHGSURGXFHGZLWKLQWKHVFRSHRIWKHUHOHYDQW
PDWHULDOVWDQGDUG)RUVRLOVDQGH[LVWLQJVWUXFWXUHVWKHYDOXHVVKRXOGEHHVWLPDWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHVDPHSULQFLSOH
DQGV RWKDWWKH\ DU HU HSUHVHQWDWLYHRIWKHDF WXDOY ROXPHRIV RLORU WKHDF WXDOSDU WRIWKH H[LVWLQJ VWUXFWXUH WR EH
FRQVLGHUHGLQWKHGHVLJQ

&KDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVRIJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV

)RUJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVDNXVXDOO\FRUUHVSRQGWRGLPHQVLRQVVSHFLILHGE\WKHGHVLJQHU

/RDGFDVHVDQGORDGFRPELQDWLRQV

/RDGF DVHVDU HWKHV SHFLILFV SDWLDODU UDQJHPHQWVRIIU HHDF WLRQVZKLF K WRJHWKHUZLWKWKHIL[ HGDF WLRQV  DUH
LQWURGXFHGLQWRFDOFXODWLRQV

7KHIUHHDFWLRQVVKRXOGEHDUUDQJHGVRWKDWWKH\SURGXFHWKHPRVWXQIDYRXUDEOHHIIHFWRQWKHV WUXFWXUHIRUWKHOLPLW
VWDWHFRQVLGHUHG

$FRPELQDWLRQRIDFWLRQVLVDVHWRIGHVLJQYDOXHVXVHGIRUWKHYHULILFDWLRQRIWKHV WUXFWXUDOUHOLDELOLW\IRUDOLPLWV WDWH


XQGHUWKHVLPXOWDQHRXVLQIOXHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWDFWLRQV

7KHEDVLFSULQFLSOHRIFRPELQDWLRQRIDFWLRQVLVWKHIROORZLQJ

² RQH RU D IHZ DFWLRQV DUH FRQVLGHUHGDV GRPLQDWLQJDQGDU HLQWU RGXFHGLQWRWKHF RPELQDWLRQZLWKH[ WUHPH
GHVLJQYDOXHV

² DOORWKHUDFWLRQVDUHLQWURGXFHGZLWKPRUHOLNHO\YDOXHV

127(²,QDQQH[* DQH[DP SOHLVJLYHQRIDV\VWHP IRUFRP ELQDWLRQRIDFWLRQVZ KLFKLVEDVHG RQ WKHVH SULQFLSOHV EXW
GHYHORSHGLQPRUHGHWDLO

$FWLRQV ZKLFK FDQQRW RFFXU VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ HJ EHFDXVHRISK\ VLFDOU HDVRQV V KRXOGQRWHQWHU WRJHWKHU LQWRD
FRPELQDWLRQ

$FWLRQHIIHFWVDQGUHVLVWDQFHV

,QPDQ\FDVHVWKHEDV LFYDULDEOHVDQGWKHIDF WRUVqZKLFKGHVFULEHWKHXQF HUWDLQWLHVRIWKH FDOFXODWLRQPRGHOVFDQ


EHVHSDUDWHGLQWRJURXSVVRWKDWVRPHJURXSVJLYHDFWLRQHIIHFWV

6 )IDq6

DQGRWKHUJURXSVJLYHUHVLVWDQFHV

5 )IDq5

,QWKHH[ SUHVVLRQIRU  6WKHPDWHU LDOSU RSHUWLHV I LV D SULPDU\ EDVLFY DULDEOHRQO\ LQV SHFLDOF DVHVIRU H[ DPSOH
FDOFXODWLRQVDFFRUGLQJWRDV HFRQGRUGHUWKHRU\,QWKHH[ SUHVVLRQVIRU 5WKHDF WLRQV )DUHRILPSRU WDQFHRQO\LQ
YHU\VSHFLDOFDVHV

7KXVGHVLJQYDOXHV6GDQG5GFDQEHGHILQHGDV

6G   6 ) G I G  D G q 6G  

5G  5 ) G I G  D G q 5G  

7KHQHTXDWLRQ  FDQEHZULWWHQ

J 6 G  5 G  ≥    


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

$VIRUHTXDWLRQ  HTXDWLRQ  VKRXOGEHU HJDUGHGRQO\DVDV \PEROLFGHVFULSWLRQ(DF KV\PERO 6DQG 5PD\


UHSUHVHQWVHYHUDODFWLRQHIIHFWVDQGUHVLVWDQFHVUHVSHFWLYHO\

,QWKHVLPSOHVWFDVHHTXDWLRQ  FDQEHZULWWHQ

5G ≥ 6G  

(TXDWLRQV   DQG   FDQ EH DSSOLHG LQWKHXOWLPDWHOLPLWV WDWHDQGWKHV HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWV WDWH) RUWKH
VHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHFRQFHUQLQJIRUH[DPSOHGHIOHFWLRQVWKHGHVLJQFRQGLWLRQLVRIWHQRIWKHW\SH

6 G  £ &  

ZKHUH&LVDVHUYLFHDELOLW\FRQVWUDLQWIRUH[DPSOHDFFHSWDEOHGHIOHFWLRQ

9HULILFDWLRQIRUIDWLJXH

6HHDQQH[&

&DOLEUDWLRQ

g YDQG xY DOXHVV KRXOGEHF DOLEUDWHGHLWKHU E\ GLU HFWF RPSDULVRQRU E\ SU REDELOLVWLF PHWKRGV LQ ERWK FDVHV
FRPELQHGZLWKMXGJHPHQW

$VVHVVPHQWRIH[LVWLQJVWUXFWXUHV

5HOHYDQWFDVHV

$QH[LVWLQJVWUXFWXUHVKDOOEHVXEMHFWHGWRWKHDVVHVVPHQWRILWVDFWXDOUHOLDELOLW\ZKHQRQHRU PRUHRIWKHIROORZLQJ
DFWLRQVDUHWREHWDNHQ

D UHKDELOLWDWLRQRIDQH[ LVWLQJFRQVWUXFWHGIDFLOLW\GXULQJZKLFKQHZV WUXFWXUDOPHPEHUVDUHDGGHGWRWKH H[LVWLQJ


ORDGFDUU\LQJV\VWHP

E DGHTXDF\F KHFNLQJLQRU GHUWRHV WDEOLVKZKHWKHU WKHH[ LVWLQJV WUXFWXUHF DQU HVLVWORDGV DV VRFLDWHGZLWK WKH
DQWLFLSDWHGFKDQJHLQXVHRIWKHIDFLOLW\RSHUDWLRQDOFKDQJHVRUH[WHQVLRQRILWVGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH

F UHSDLURIDQH[ LVWLQJV WUXFWXUHZKLF KKDV GHWHU LRUDWHG GXH WR WLPHGHSHQGHQW HQYLURQPHQWDO HIIHFWV RU KDV
VXIIHUHGGDPDJHIURPDFFLGHQWDODFWLRQV HJDQHDUWKTXDNH 

G ZKHUHWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHVWUXFWXUHLVLQGRXEW HJIRUHDUWKTXDNHV 

,QV RPHF DVHVDV VHVVPHQWVPD\ DOV REHU HTXLUHGE\ DXWKRU LWLHVLQV XUDQFH FRPSDQLHV RU RZQHUV RU PD\ EH
GHPDQGHGE\DPDLQWHQDQFHSODQ

3ULQFLSOHVRIDVVHVVPHQW

$QDO\VLVDQGGHVLJQGXULQJWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIDQH[LVWLQJVWUXFWXUHVKDOOEHEDVHGRQWKHJHQHUDOSULQFLSOHVRXWOLQHG
LQF ODXVHVWR+LV WRULFF RGHVY DOLGLQWKHSHU LRGZKHQ WKH RULJLQDO VWUXFWXUH ZDV GHVLJQHG EDVHG RQ RWKHU
SULQFLSOHVVKRXOGEHXVHGRQO\DVJXLGDQFHGRFXPHQWV

7KHDV VHVVPHQWQHHGQRWEHSHU IRUPHGIRU WKRV HSDU WVRIWKHH[ LVWLQJV WUXFWXUHZKLF K ZLOO QRW EH DIIHFWHG E\
VWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVUHKDELOLWDWLRQUHSDLUFKDQJHLQXV HRUZKLFKDUHQRWREYLRXVO\GDPDJHGRUDUHQRWVXVSHFWHG
RIKDYLQJLQVXIILFLHQWUHOLDELOLW\


‹(6$ (6,62 (

%DVLFYDULDEOHV

)RUWKHUHOLDELOLW\UHTXLUHPHQWVWKHYDOXHVRIEDVLFYDULDEOHVVKDOOEHWDNHQDVIROORZV

D 'LPHQVLRQVRIWKHV WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV ZKHQWKHRU LJLQDOGHV LJQGRF XPHQWVDU HDY DLODEOH DQG QR FKDQJH LQ
GLPHQVLRQVKDVWDNHQSODFHRURWKHUHYLGHQFHRIGHYLDWLRQVDUHSUHVHQWWKHQRPLQDOGLPHQVLRQVLQDFFRUGDQFH
ZLWKWKHRU LJLQDOGHV LJQGRF XPHQWVV KRXOGEHXV HGLQWKHDQDO\ VLV7KHV HGLPHQV LRQVV KDOOEHY HULILHG E\
LQVSHFWLRQWRDQDGHTXDWHH[WHQW

E /RDGF KDUDFWHULVWLFVV KDOOEHLQWU RGXFHGZLWKY DOXHVF RUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHDF WXDOV LWXDWLRQ:KHQ RYHUORDGLQJ


KDVEHHQREVHUYHGLQWKHSDVWLWPD\EHDSSURSULDWHWRLQFUHDVHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXHV:KHQVRPHORDGVKDYH
EHHQU HGXFHGRU U HPRYHGF RPSOHWHO\WKHU HSUHVHQWDWLYHY DOXHVRIWKHORDGPDJQLWXGHV F DQEHDSSU RSULDWHO\
UHGXFHGDQGRUWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVFDQEHDGMXVWHG

F 0DWHULDOSURSHUWLHVVKDOOEHFRQVLGHUHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHDF WXDOVWDWHRIWKHV WUXFWXUHZKHQWKHRU LJLQDOGHVLJQ


GRFXPHQWVDUHDYDLODEOHDQGQRVHULRXVGHWHULRUDWLRQGHVLJQHUURUVRUFRQVWUXFWLRQHUURUVDUHVXVSHFWHGWKH
FKDUDFWHULVWLFY DOXHLQDF FRUGDQFHZLWKWKHRU LJLQDOGHV LJQV KRXOGEHXV HG,IDSSU RSULDWHGHV WUXFWLYHRU QRQ
GHVWUXFWLYHLQVSHFWLRQVVKRXOGEHSHUIRUPHGDQGHYDOXDWHGXVLQJVWDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGV

G 0RGHOXQFHUWDLQWLHVVKDOOEHFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHVDPHZD\DVGXULQJGHVLJQXQOHVVSUHYLRXVVWUXFWXUDOEHKDYLRXU
HVSHFLDOO\GDPDJH LQGLF DWHVRWKHU ZLVH,QV RPHF DVHV PRGHO IDFWRUV FRHIILFLHQWV DQG RWKHU GHVLJQ
DVVXPSWLRQVPD\EHHVWDEOLVKHGIURPPHDVXUHPHQWVRQWKHH[ LVWLQJVWUXFWXUH HJZLQGSU HVVXUHFRHIILFLHQW
HIIHFWLYHZLGWKYDOXHVHWF 

,QYHVWLJDWLRQ

$QLQYHVWLJDWLRQLVLQWHQGHGWRXSGDWHWKHN QRZOHGJHDERXWWKHSU HVHQWFRQGLWLRQ VWDWH RIDV WUXFWXUHZLWKU HVSHFW


WR D QXPEHU RI DVSHFWV  2IWHQ WKH ILUVWLPSU HVVLRQRIWKHF RQGLWLRQRIDV WUXFWXUHZLOOEHEDV HGRQDTXDOLWDWLY H
LQVSHFWLRQ  7KH GHVFULSWLRQ RI SRVVLEOH GDPDJH RIWKHV WUXFWXUHZLOOEHLQY HUEDOWHU PVV XFKDV ³ QRQHPLQRU 
PRGHUDWHVHYHUHGHVWUXFWLYHXQNQRZQ´9HU\RIWHQGHFLVLRQVEDVHGRQVXFKREVHUYDWLRQZLOOEHPDGHLQD SXUHO\
LQWXLWLYHZD\E\H[SHUWV$EHWWHU MXGJHPHQWRIWKHV WUXFWXUHFDQEHPDGHRQWKHEDV LVRITXDQWLWDWLYHLQVSHFWLRQV
7KHVHVKRXOGUHVXOWLQDVHWRIYDOXHVZKLFKFKDUDFWHUL]HWKHSURSHUWLHVRUFRQGLWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV)RU
DOOLQVSHFWLRQWHFKQLTXHVRQHV KRXOGKDYHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHSU REDELOLW\RIGHWHF WLQJVRPHGDPDJHLISU HVHQWDQG
WKHDFFXUDF\RIWKHUHVXOWV

$VSHFLDOW\SHRILQYHVWLJDWLRQLVSURRIORDGLQJ%DVHGRQVXFKWHVWVRQHPD\GUDZFRQFOXVLRQVZLWKUHVSHFWWR

² WKHEHDULQJFDSDFLW\RIWKHWHVWHGPHPEHUXQGHUWKHWHVWORDGFRQGLWLRQ

² RWKHUPHPEHUV

² RWKHUORDGFRQGLWLRQV

² WKHEHKDYLRXURIWKHV\VWHP

7KH LQIHUHQFH LQ WKH ILUVW FDVH LVU HODWLYHO\HDV \WKHSU REDELOLW\GHQV LW\IXQF WLRQRIWKHORDG EHDULQJF DSDFLW\LV
VLPSO\FXWRIIDWWKHY DOXHRIWKHSURRIORDG7KHLQIHUHQFHIRUWKHRWKHUFRQFOXVLRQVLVPRUHFRPSOH[1RWHWKDWWKH
QXPEHURISU RRIORDGWHV WVQHHGQRWWREHU HVWULFWHGWRRQH2 QHPLJKWGHF LGHWRWHV WRQHPHPEHU  XQGHU YDULRXV
ORDGLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQGRUDVDPSOHRIVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV,QRU GHUWRDY RLGXQQHFHVVDU\GDPDJHWRWKHV WUXFWXUH
GXH WR WKH SURRI ORDGLWLV U HFRPPHQGHGWRLQF UHDVHWKHORDGJU DGXDOO\DQGWRPHDV XUHWKHGHIRU PDWLRQV
0HDVXUHPHQWVPD\DOVRJLYHDEHWWHUL QVLJKWLQWRWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKHV\VWHP3 URRIORDGVFDQLQJHQHUDOQRWGHDO
ZLWKGXUDWLRQHIIHFWV7KHVHHIIHFWVVKRXOGEHFRPSHQVDWHGIRUE\FDOFXODWLRQ

*LYHQWKHUHVXOWRIDQLQYHVWLJDWLRQWKHUHLVDQHHGWRXSGDWHWKHSURSHUWLHVDQGUHOLDELOLW\HVWLPDWHVRIWKHVWUXFWXUH
7ZRGLIIHUHQWURXWHVFDQEHGLVWLQJXLVKHG

D E\XSGDWLQJWKHPXOWLYDULDWHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHLQGLYLGXDOYDULDEOHVWKLVPHWKRGFDQEHXVHGWRGHULYH
XSGDWHGGHVLJQYDOXHVWREHXVHGLQWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDWDQGIRUFRPSDULQJDFWLRQHIIHFWVGLUHFWO\ZLWKOLPLW
YDOXHV FUDFNVGLVSODFHPHQWV 


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

E E\DIRUPDOXSGDWLQJRIWKHVWUXFWXUDOIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\

,QSULQFLSOHWKHU HVXOWRIDOOREV HUYDWLRQV TXDOLWDWLYHLQVSHFWLRQFDOFXODWLRQVTXDQWLWDWLYHLQVSHFWLRQSURRIORDGLQJ


VKRXOGEHWUHDWHGLQRQHRIWKHVHWZRZD\V

$VVHVVPHQWLQWKHFDVHRIGDPDJH

,QWKHFDVHRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIDGDPDJHGVWUXFWXUHWKHIROORZLQJVWHSZLVHSURFHGXUHLVUHFRPPHQGHG

9LVXDOLQVSHFWLRQ
,WLVDOZD\VXVHIXOWRPDNHDQLQLWLDOYLVXDOLQVSHFWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHWRREWDLQDIHHOIRU LWVFRQGLWLRQ0DMRUGHIHFWV
VKRXOGEHUHDVRQDEO\HYLGHQWWRWKHH[SHULHQFHGH\H,QWKHFDVHRIYHU\VHYHUHGDPDJHLPPHGLDWHPHDVXUHV OLNH
DEDQGRQPHQWRIWKHVWUXFWXUH PD\EHWDNHQ

([SODQDWLRQRIWKHREVHUYHGSKHQRPHQD
,Q RUGHU WR EH DEOHWRXQGHU VWDQGWKHSU HVHQWF RQGLWLRQRIWKHV WUXFWXUHRQHV KRXOGV LPXODWHWKHGDPDJHRU WKH
REVHUYHGEHKDY LRXUXV LQJDPRGHORIWKHV WUXFWXUHDQGWKHHV WLPDWHGLQWHQV LW\RIWKHY DULRXV ORDGV RU
SK\VLFDOFKHPLFDODJHQFLHV,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRKDYHDYDLODEOHWKHGRFXPHQWDWLRQZLWKUHVSHFWWRGHVLJQDQDO\VLVDQG
FRQVWUXFWLRQ  ,I WKHUHLV DGLV FUHSDQF\EHWZHHQF DOFXODWLRQVDQGREV HUYDWLRQVLWPLJKWEHZRU WKZKLOHWRORRN IRU
GHVLJQHUURUVHUURUVLQFRQVWUXFWLRQHWF

5HOLDELOLW\DVVHVVPHQW
*LYHQWKHVWUXFWXUHLQLWVSUHVHQWVWDWHDQGJLYHQWKHSUHVHQWLQIRUPDWLRQWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHVWUXFWXUHLVHVWLPDWHG
HLWKHUE\PHDQVRIDIDLOXU HSUREDELOLW\RUE\PHDQVRISDU WLDOIDFWRUV1RWHWKDWWKHPRGHORIWKHSUHVHQWVWUXFWXUH
PD\EHGLIIHUHQWIURPWKHRU LJLQDOPRGHO,IWKHU HOLDELOLW\LVVXIILFLHQW LHEHWWHUWKDQQRU PDOO\DFFHSWHGLQGHV LJQ
RQHPLJKWEHVDWLVILHGDQGQRIXUWKHUDFWLRQLVUHTXLUHG

$GGLWLRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQ
,I WKH UHOLDELOLW\ DFFRUGLQJ WR  LV LQVXIILFLHQWRQHPD\ ORRN IRU DGGLWLRQDOLQIRU PDWLRQIU RPPRU HDGY DQFHG
VWUXFWXUDOPRGHOVDGGLWLRQDOLQVSHFWLRQVDQGPHDV XUHPHQWVRUDFWXDOORDGDV VHVVPHQW7KHXSGDWLQJWHF KQLTXHV
DERXWKRZWRXVHWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQLVGLVFXVVHGLQ

)LQDOGHFLVLRQ
,IWKHGHJUHHRIUHOLDELOLW\LVVWLOOWRRORZRQHPLJKWGHFLGHWR

D DFFHSWWKHSUHVHQWVLWXDWLRQIRUHFRQRPLFDOUHDVRQV

E UHGXFHWKHORDGVRQWKHVWUXFWXUH

F UHSDLUWKHEXLOGLQJ

G VWDUWGHPROLWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUH

127(²6ROXWLRQD FDQEHPRWLYDWHGE\WKHIDFWWKDWWKHFRVWVIRUDGGLWLRQDOUHOLDELOLW\DUHPXFKKLJKHUIRUH[LVWLQJVWUXFWXUHV
WKDQ IRU VWUXFWXUHVXQGHUGHVLJQ7KLVMXVWLILHVWKHFKRLFHLP SO\LQJWKDWKLJKHUUHOLDELOLW\LVUHTXLUHGIRUDVWUXFWXUHWREH
GHVLJQHG+RZHYHULIKXPDQVDIHW\LVLQYROYHGOLPLWVWRHFRQRPLFDORSWLPL]DWLRQVKRXOGEHVHW

(IIHFWLYHO\ORZHUDFFHSWDQFHOHYHOVFDQEHVHWE\UHGXFLQJVSHFLILHG bYDOXHVIRUSUREDELOLVWLFGHVLJQDQGUHGXFLQJ gYDOXHVLQ


WKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDW


‹(6$ (6,62 (

$QQH[$
LQIRUPDWLYH

4XDOLW\PDQDJHPHQWDQGTXDOLW\DVVXUDQFH

$2EMHFWLYHV
7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVDQQH[L VWRSURYL GHJHQHUDOJXLGDQFHIRUWKHL PSOHPHQWDWLRQRIDTXDO LW\PDQDJHPHQWV\VWHP
IRUFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNVDQGLQSDUWLFXODUIRUWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH,62VHULHV

,QJHQHUDOWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNVVKRXOG

D PHHWGHILQHGQHHGVXVHVRUSXUSRVHV

E VDWLVI\FOLHQWH[SHFWDWLRQV

F FRPSO\ZLWKDSSOLFDEOHVWDQGDUGVDQGVSHFLILFDWLRQVDQG

G FRPSO\ZLWKVWDWXWRU\ DQGRWKHU UHTXLUHPHQWVRIVRFLHW\

$'HILQLWLRQV

$FXVWRPHU5HFLSLHQWRIDFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNVLQDFRQWUDFWXDOVLWXDWLRQ

$TXDOLW\7RWDOLW\RIWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDQHQWLW\  HJFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV WKDWEHDU RQLWV DELOLW\WRV DWLVI\


VWDWHGDQGLPSOLHGQHHGV LHDOONLQGVRIH[SOLFLWRULPSOLFLWUHTXLUHPHQWV 

$UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU TXDOLW\([ SUHVVLRQRIWKHQHHGV RU WKHLU WU DQVODWLRQLQWRDV HWRI TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ RU
TXDOLWDWLYHO\VWDWHGUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDQHQWLW\WRHQDEOHLWVUHDOL]DWLRQDQGH[DPLQDWLRQ

$FRQIRUPLW\)XOILOPHQWRIVSHFLILHGUHTXLUHPHQWV

$TXDOLW\SROLF\2YHUDOOLQWHQWLRQVDQGGLUHFWLRQRIDQRUJDQL]DWLRQ LHFRQWUDFWRUVFXVWRPHU ZLWKUHJDUGWR


TXDOLW\DVIRUPDOO\H[SUHVVHGE\WRSPDQDJHPHQW

$TXDOLW\ PDQDJHPHQW $OO DFWLYLWLHV RI WKHRY HUDOOPDQDJHPHQWIXQF WLRQWKDWGHWHU PLQHWKHTXDOLW\ SROLF \
REMHFWLYHVDQGUHVSRQVLELOLWLHVDQGLPSOHPHQWWKHPZLWKLQWKHTXDOLW\V\VWHP

$TXDOLW\ORRS$FRQFHSWXDOPRGHORILQWHUDFWLQJDFWLYLWLHVWKDWLQIOXHQFHTXDOLW\DWWKHYDULRXVVWDJHVUDQJLQJ
IURPWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIQHHGVWRWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIZKHWKHUWKHVHQHHGVKDYHEHHQVDWLVILHG

$TXDOLW\FRQWURO2SHUDWLRQDOWHFKQLTXHVDQGDFWLYLWLHVWKDWDUHXVHGWRIXOILOUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUTXDOLW\

$TXDOLW\DVVXUDQFH$OOWKHSODQQHGDQGV\VWHPDWLFDFWLRQVQHFHVVDU\WRSURYL GHDGHTXDWHFRQIL GHQFHWKDW


DQHQWLW\ZLOOIXOILOWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUTXDOLW\

$TXDOLW\ SODQ'RF XPHQWV HWWLQJRXWWKHV SHFLILFTXDOLW\ SU DFWLFHVU HVRXUFHVDQG VHTXHQFH RI DFWLYLWLHV
UHOHYDQWWRDSDUWLFXODUSURGXFWSURMHFWRUFRQWUDFW

$SURFHVV$VHWRILQWHUUHODWHGUHVRXUFHVDQGDFWLYLWLHVZKLFKWUDQVIRUPLQSXWVLQWRRXWSXWV

$SURFHGXUH$VSHFLILHGZD\WRSHUIRUPDQDFWLYLW\


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

$4XDOLW\PDQDJHPHQW
0DQDJLQJGHVLJQTXDOLW\LPSOLHVWKDWWKHIROORZLQJDFWLRQVVKRXOGEHWDNHQ

D 7KHYDULRXVUHOLDELOLW\DVSHFWVRITXDOLW\ DUHLGHQWLILHG HJVWUXFWXUDOVDIHW\ILWQHVVIRUXVHFRPIRUWGXUDELOLW\


DHVWKHWLFVFRVWHWF 

E 7KHVHDV SHFWVDU HWU DQVIRUPHGLQWRDV HWRIU HTXLUHPHQWVIRU TXDOLW\  HJIXQF WLRQDOF KDUDFWHULVWLFV WKHUPDO
FKDUDFWHULVWLFVVWUXFWXUDOVDIHW\VHUYLFHDELOLW\DQGUREXVWQHVVFULWHULDGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIHFRVWHWF 

F 7KHPDLQDF WLYLWLHVWKDWF RQWULEXWHWRREWDLQLQJWKHTXDOLW\  DUH LGHQWLILHG HJ SUHOLPLQDU\ LQYHVWLJDWLRQV


FRQFHSWXDORSWLRQV GHV LJQV LWXDWLRQVF KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDF WLRQVF KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIPDWHU LDOVOHY HO RI
ZRUNPDQVKLSOLPLWVRIXVHSULQFLSOHVRIPDLQWHQDQFH 7KHYDULRXVDFWLYLWLHVRIWKHOLIHF\FOHRIWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQ
ZRUNVWKDWLQIOXHQF HTXDOLW\ DU HLGHQWLILHG7KHV HDF WLYLWLHVF DQEHLQWHU SUHWHGDV WKHTXDOLW\ ORRSRIWKH
FRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV VHHWDEOH$ 

G 7KHFRQVLGHUHGDFWLYLWLHVDUHFRQWUROOHGE\WKHPDQDJHPHQWRIWKHLQYROYHGRUJDQL]DWLRQV

7DEOH$FDQEHFRQVLGHUHGWREHDEDVLVIRUSUHSDULQJWKHTXDOLW\SODQ

$4XDOLW\DVVXUDQFH
7RDF KLHYHDQDGHTXDWHF RQILGHQFHWKDWWKHGHV LJQIXOILOV WKHV SHFLILHGU HTXLUHPHQWVIRU TXDOLW\ V XSSOHPHQWDU\
DFWLRQVVKRXOGEHWDNHQ

² WKHPDLQIDFWRUVLQWHUYHQLQJLQWRWKHIXOILOPHQWRIWKH VSHFLILHGUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUTXDOLW\VKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGLQ
DTXDOLW\SODQ VHHWDEOH$ 

² GRFXPHQWV UHODWHG WRWKHF RQWURORIIDF WRUVWKDWF RQWULEXWHWRTXDOLW\ V KRXOGEHF RPSLOHGDQGU HWDLQHG


WKURXJKRXWWKHFRXUVHRIWKHOLIHF\FOHRIFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV

7DEOH$²4XDOLW\PDQDJHPHQWDFWLYLWLHVLQWKHTXDOLW\ORRSIRUFRQVWUXFWLRQZRUNV

6WDJHVRIWKHOLIHF\FOH $FWLYLWLHV
&RQFHSWLRQ ∑ (VWDEOLVKLQJDSSURSULDWHOHYHOVRI SHUIRUPDQFH IRU FRQVWUXFWLRQ
ZRUNVDQGFRPSRQHQWV
∑ 6SHFLILFDWLRQIRUGHVLJQ
∑ 6SHFLILFDWLRQIRUVXSSOLHUV
∑ 3UHOLPLQDU\VSHFLILFDWLRQVIRUH[HFXWLRQDQGPDLQWHQDQFH
∑ &KRLFHRILQWHUYHQLQJSDUWLHVZ LWKDSSURSULDWHTXDOLILFDWLRQVIRU
SHUVRQQHODQGRUJDQL]DWLRQ
'HVLJQ ∑ 6SHFLILFDWLRQRISHUIRUPDQFHFULWHULDIRUPDWHULDOVFRPSRQHQWVDQG
DVVHPEOLHV
∑ &RQILUPLQJDFFHSWDELOLW\DQGDFKLHYDELOLW\RISHUIRUPDQFH
∑ 6SHFLILFDWLRQRIWHVWRSWLRQV SURWRW\SHLQVLWXHWF
∑ 6SHFLILFDWLRQIRUPDWHULDOV
7HQGHULQJ ∑ 5HYLHZLQJGHVLJQGRFXPHQWVLQFOXGLQJSHUIRUPDQFHVSHFLILFDWLRQV
∑ $FFHSWDQFHRIUHTXLUHPHQWV FRQWUDFWRU
∑ $FFHSWDQFHRIWHQGHU FXVWRPHU
([HFXWLRQ ∑ &RQWURORISURFHGXUHVDQGSURFHVVHV
∑ 6DPSOLQJDQGWHVWLQJ
∑ &RUUHFWLRQRIGHILFLHQFLHV
∑ &HUWLILFDWLRQRIZ RUNDFFRUGLQJWRFRP SOLDQFHWHVWV VSHFLILHGLQWKH
GHVLJQGRFXPHQWDWLRQ


‹(6$ (6,62 (

6WDJHVRIWKHOLIHF\FOH $FWLYLWLHV
&RPSOHWLRQRIWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQZ RUNVDQGKDQGRYHUWR ∑ &RPPLVVLRQLQJ
WKHFXVWRPHU ∑ 9HULILFDWLRQRISHUIRUP DQFHRIFRP SOHWHGEXLOGLQJ HJ E\ WHVWLQJ
XQGHURSHUDWLRQDOORDGV
8VHDQGPDLQWHQDQFH ∑ 0RQLWRULQJSHUIRUPDQFH
∑ ,QVSHFWLRQIRUGHWHULRUDWLRQRUGLVWUHVV
∑ ,QYHVWLJDWLRQRISUREOHPV
∑ &HUWLILFDWLRQRIZRUN
5HKDELOLWDWLRQRUGHPROLWLRQ 6LPLODUWRDERYH
127(6
5HKDELOLWDWLRQLVQRWPDQGDWRU\
'HPROLWLRQLVRXWVLGHWKHVFRSHRIWKLV,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUG

$4XDOLW\FRQWURO
$*HQHUDO

4XDOLW\FRQWUROFRQVLVWVRI

² FROOHFWLRQRILQIRUPDWLRQ

² MXGJHPHQWEDVHGRQWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQ

² GHFLVLRQEDVHGRQWKHMXGJHPHQW

$&RQWUROSURFHGXUH

5HJRUGLQJWKHFRQWUROSURFHGXUHZLWKLQPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGFRQVWUXFWLRQDGLVWLQFWLRQFDQEHPDGHEHWZHHQ

² SURGXFWLRQFRQWUROZKLFKLVFRQWURORIDSU RGXFWLRQSURFHVVWKHSXU SRVHRIWKLV FRQWUROLVWRV WHHUDSU RGXFWLRQ


SURFHVVDQGWRJXDUDQWHHDQDFFHSWDEOHUHVXOW

² FRPSOLDQFH FRQWURO ZKLFK LVF RQWURORIWKHU HVXOWRIDSU RGXFWLRQSU RFHVVWKHSXU SRVHRIWKLV F RQWUROLV WR
HQVXUHWKDWWKHUHVXOWRIDSURGXFWLRQSURFHVVFRPSOLHVZLWKWKHJLYHQVSHFLILFDWLRQ

$&RQWUROFULWHULDDQGDFFHSWDQFHUXOHV

&RQWUROFDQEHWRWDORUVWDWLVWLFDO,IWKHFRQWUROLVWRWDOHYHU\SURGXFHGXQLWLVLQVSHFWHG7KHDFFHSWDQFHUXOHVLPSO\
WKDWDXQLWLV MXGJHGDV EHLQJJRRG DFFHSWHG RUEDG QRWDFFHSWHG 1RUPDOO\WKHFULWHULDLIWKH\DUHTXDQWLWDWLYH
UHIHUWRJLYHQWROHUDQFHV

$VWDWLVWLFDOFRQWUROSURFHGXUHJHQHUDOO\FRQVLVWVRIWKHIROORZLQJSDUWV

² EDWFKLQJWKHSURGXFWV

² VDPSOLQJZLWKLQHDFKEDWFK

² WHVWLQJWKHVDPSOHV

² VWDWLVWLFDOMXGJHPHQWRIWKHUHVXOWV

² GHFLVLRQUHJDUGLQJDFFHSWDQFH


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

$EDWFKVKRXOGEHVXFKWKDWLWPD\EHUHJDUGHGDVKRPRJHQHRXVZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHSURSHUWLHVZKLFKDUHWKHVXEMHFW
RI WKH FRQWURO 7KHMXGJHPHQWRIWKHU HVXOWVV KRXOGQRU PDOO\EHPDGHZLWKU HJDUGWRDJLY HQOHY HORIF RQILGHQFH
DQGRUDJLYHQLQWHUYDORIFRQILGHQFHRUE\DSSO\LQJ%D\HVLDQWHFKQLTXHV

$&RQWUROSURFHVV

'LVWLQFWLRQF DQEHPDGHEHWZHHQWKHIROORZLQJGLIIHU HQWF RQWUROV WHSVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHSHU VRQRU RU JDQL]DWLRQ


VXSHUYLVLQJWKHFRQWURO

² LQGLYLGXDOVHOIFKHFNLQJ

² LQWHUQDOFRQWURO

² DFFHSWDQFHFRQWUROKDQGOHGE\WKHSURMHFWPDQDJHPHQW

7KHUHRIWHQH[LVWVDQDGGLWLRQDOFRQWUROVXFKDVWKDWLQLWLDWHGDQGH[ HFXWHGE\ WKHSXEOLF DXWKRU LW\DQGEDV HGRQ


EXLOGLQJODZVDQGRUFRGHV

,QWHUQDOFRQWUROLVH[HFXWHGLQWKHVDPHRIILFHIDFWRU\RUZRUNVKRSZKHUHWKHZRUNZKLFKLVWKHREMHFWRIWKHFRQWURO
LVFDUULHGRXW+RZHYHUWKHZRUNDQGWKHFRQWURODUHH[HFXWHGE\VHSDUDWHERGLHV

,IDF RQWUROSURFHVVFRQVLVWVRIV HYHUDOVWHSVLWLV LPSRUWDQWIRUWKHILQDOU HVXOWWKDWWKHDFWLYLWLHVRIWKHVHVWHSVDV


IRUDVSRVVLEOHDUHPXWXDOO\LQGHSHQGHQWLQDVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVHRWKHUZLVHWKHHIILFLHQF\RIWKHFRQWUROZLOOGHFUHDVH

,QPDQ\FDVHVLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRVHWXSDFRQWUROSODQZKLFKLVSDUWRIWKHTXDOLW\SODQDFFRUGLQJWR$


‹(6$ (6,62 (

$QQH[%
LQIRUPDWLYH

([DPSOHVRISHUPDQHQWYDULDEOHDQGDFFLGHQWDODFWLRQV

127(²7KHIROORZLQJH[DPSOHVLQFOXGHWKHPRVWFRPPRQW\SHVRIDFWLRQV,QFHUWDLQFDVHVWKHUHP D\EHRWKHUW\SHVVXFK
DFWLRQVVKRXOGEHFODVVLILHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHEDVLFGHILQLWLRQV

%3HUPDQHQWDFWLRQV
7KHVHLQFOXGHWKHIROORZLQJ

D WKHPDV VRIWKHV WUXFWXUHVWKHPV HOYHV H[FHSWSRV VLEO\F HUWDLQ SDUWV RI WKLV PDVV GXULQJ FHUWDLQ SKDVHV RI
FRQVWUXFWLRQ 

E WKHPDVVRIVXSHUVWUXFWXUHVLQFOXGLQJDQ\SHUPDQHQWIRUPZRUNRUIL[WXUHV

F WKHIRUFHVDSSOLHGE\HDUWKSUHVVXUHUHVXOWLQJIURPWKHPDVVRIWKHVRLODWWKHLUILQDOYDOXHV

G WKHGHIRUPDWLRQVLPSRVHGE\WKHPRGHRIFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHDWWKHLUILQDOYDOXHV

H WKHDFWLRQVUHVXOWLQJIURPVKULQNDJHRIFRQFUHWHDQGIURPZHOGLQJ

I WKHIRUFHVUHVXOWLQJIURPZDWHUSUHVVXUHZKHUHDSSURSULDWH

J WKHDFWLRQVUHVXOWLQJIURPVXSSRUWVHWWOHPHQWVDQGPLQLQJVXEVLGHQFH

K SUHVWUHVVLQJIRUFHV

%9DULDEOHDFWLRQV
7KHVHLQFOXGHWKHIROORZLQJ

D ORDGVGXHWRXVHDQGRFFXSDQF\LPSRVHGORDGV

E FHUWDLQSDUWVRIWKHPDVVRIVWUXFWXUHVWKHPVHOYHVGXULQJFHUWDLQSKDVHVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQ

F HUHFWLRQORDGV

G DOOPRYLQJORDGVDQGWKHLUHIIHFWV

H ZLQGDFWLRQV

I VQRZORDGV

J LFHIRUPDWLRQ

K HDUWKTXDNHDFWLRQV 

L WKHHIIHFWVRIYDULDEOHOHYHORIZDWHUVXUIDFHZKHUHDSSURSULDWH

M WHPSHUDWXUHFKDQJHV

N ZDYHORDGV

BBBBBBBBBB
 (DUWKTXDNHVPD\EHFRQVLGHUHGDVHLWKHUDYDULDEOHDFWLRQXQGHUVSHFLILHGFRQGLWLRQVRUDQDFFLGHQWDODFWLRQ


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

%$FFLGHQWDODFWLRQV
7KHVHLQFOXGHWKHIROORZLQJ

D FROOLVLRQV

E H[SORVLRQV

F VXEVLGHQFHRIVXEVRLO

G WRUQDGRHVLQUHJLRQVQRWQRUPDOO\H[SRVHGWRWKHP

H HDUWKTXDNHDFWLRQV 

I ILUH

J H[WUHPHHURVLRQ


‹(6$ (6,62 (

$QQH[&
LQIRUPDWLYH

0RGHOVIRUIDWLJXH

&,QWURGXFWLRQ
,QV WUXFWXUHVORDGHGE\ IOXF WXDWLQJDF WLRQVIDWLJXHIDLOXU HVPD\ RF FXUDWORDGOHY HOV ZKLFK DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ ORZHU
WKDQWKHORDGOHYHOVDWZKLFKIDLOXUHPD\QRUPDOO\EHH[ SHFWHG:KHQV XFKDIDWLJXHIDLOXU HLVGXHWRF UDFNJURZWK
SKHQRPHQDWKHFRPSOHWHPHFKDQLVPFRQVLVWVRIWKUHHVWDJHV

D DQLQLWLDWLRQSKDVHLQZKLFKFUDFNVDUHIRUPHG

E DFUDFNJURZWKSKDVHLQZKLFKVWDEOHFUDFNJURZWKWDNHVSODFHGXULQJHYHU\ORDGF\FOH

F DIDLOXUHSKDVHLQZKLF KXQVWDEOHFUDFNJURZWKRFFXUVGXHWREU LWWOHIUDFWXUHRUGXFWLOHWHDULQJRULQZKLFKWKH


UHGXFHGFURVVVHFWLRQIDLOVGXHWRJHQHUDO\LHOGLQJ

:KHQGXULQJWKHF UDFNJURZWKSKDVHODUJHDOWHUQDWLQJSODVWLF]RQHVDUHSUHVHQWIDLOXUHRFFXUVDIWHUUHODWLYHO\IHZ
F\FOHVDQGWKHPHFKDQLVPLVUHIHUUHGWRDVO RZF\FOHIDWLJXH:KHQWKHSO DVWLF]RQHVDUHVPDO OWKHPHFKDQL VPLV
FDOOHGKLJKF\FOHIDWLJXH

7ZRPDLQPHWKRGVRIDQDO\VLVFDQEHGLVWLQJXLVKHG

² WKH61OLQHDSSURDFKDQG

² WKH)UDFWXUH0HFKDQLFVDSSURDFK

%RWK PHWKRGV ZLOO EH GLVFXVVHG LQ VRPH GHWDLO 7KHPHWKRGV KDY HEHHQGHY HORSHGIRU V WHHOV WUXFWXUHVEXWWKH
SULQFLSOHVPD\DOVREHXVHIXOIRURWKHUPDWHULDOV

&61OLQHV
7KH 61OLQHDSSU RDFKF RPELQHVDOOWKU HHSKDV HVRIWKHIDWLJXHPHF KDQLVPDQGLV F RPSOHWHO\EDV HGRQ
H[SHULPHQWV$QXPEHURIWHVWVSHFLPHQVDUHVXEMHFWHGWRDVHUL HVRIFRQVWDQWDPSO LWXGHORDGF\FOHVXQWLOIDLOXUH
3ORWWLQJWKHVWUHVVUDQJH6DJDLQVWWKHQXPEHURIF\FOHVDWIDLOXUH1JLYHVWKH61OLQH7KH6 1OLQHPD\RUPD\
QRWGHSHQGRQWKHPHDQV WUHVVOHY HO,QRU GHUWRGHDOZLWKDU HDOLVWLFY DULDEOHDPSOLWXGH ORDGLQJ RQ D VWUXFWXUH D
GDPDJHDFFXPXODWLYHUXOHKDVWREHDSSOLHG7KHPRV WZLGHO\ XV HGLV WKHOLQHDU GDPDJHU XOHRI3DOPJU HQ0LQHU
$FFRUGLQJWRWKLVUXOHIDLOXUHRFFXUVLI

Q
 1LL � 'F . . . &

ZKHUH

QL LVWKHQXPEHURIDSSOLHGORDGF\FOHVZLWKVWUHVVUDQJHOHYHO6L

1L LVWKHQXPEHURIORDGF\FOHVDWIDLOXUHIRUVWUHVVUDQJHOHYHO6L

'F LVWKHFULWLFDOYDOXHIRUWKHGDPDJHUDWLR

7KHVWUHVVUDQJH6LLVDVVXPHGWRLQFOXGHWKHHIIHFWVRIORFDOVWUHVVFRQFHQWUDWLRQV HJDWZHOGWLSV 

,QRUGHUWRILQGWKHQXPEHURIVWUHVVHV QLIRUHDFKVWUHVVUDQJHOHYHO6LVSHFLDOFRXQWLQJSURFHGXUHV HJUDLQIORZ


FRXQWLQJ PD\EHQHFHVVDU\7KH3DOPJUHQ0LQHUGDPDJHUXOHGRHVQRWWDNHVHTXHQFHHIIHFWVLQWRDFFRXQW,QWKH
LGHDO FDVHWKHF ULWLFDOY DOXH 'FHTXDOV EXWLQJHQHU DOLWGHSHQGV RQWKHORDGKLV WRU\WKHHQY LURQPHQWDQG
PDWHULDOW\SH


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

&)UDFWXUHPHFKDQLFV
,QWKH)UDFWXUH0HFKDQLFVDSSURDFKVHSDUDWHPRGHOVDUHXVHGIRUWKHWKUHHGLIIHUHQWVWDJHV

D 7KHFUDFNLQLWLDWLRQVWDJHLVRIWHQPRGHOOHGE\WKHORFDOVWUDLQDSSURDFKWKLVLVPDLQO\XVHGIRUVPDOOWKLQSODWHG
VWUXFWXUHVLQPDQ\RWKHUDSSOLFDWLRQVWKLVVWDJHFDQRIWHQEHQHJOHFWHG

E 7KHFUDFNSURSDJDWLRQVWDJHFDQLQPDQ\FDVHVEHJRYHUQHGE\DFUDFNJURZWKPRGHOZKHUHWKHFUDFNVL]H DW
DIWHUDWLPH WLV DIXQF WLRQRIWKHLQLWLDOF UDFNV L]H DWKHKLV WRU\RIWKHORF DOQRPLQDOV WUHVV s t DQGWKH
IDWLJXHUHVLVWDQFH5IZKLFKGHSHQGVRQORFDOPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVDQGJHRPHWU\

DW=I Ds t 5I  <t<W  &

,QPRVWFUDFNJURZWKPRGHOVWKHV WUHVVKLVWRU\s t ZLOOEHWU DQVODWHGLQWRDV HTXHQFHRIF\FOHV,QDGGLWLRQWR


FUDFNOHQJWKLWPD\DOVREHQHFHVVDU\WRWDNHFUDFNGHSWKDQGZLGWKLQWRDFFRXQW

F 7KHIDLOXUHVWDJHLVRIWHQPRGHOOHGXV LQJWKHF RQFHSWRIWKHFULWLFDOFUDFNVL]H(YHU\VWUHVVOHYHOs t FDQEH


DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDFULWLFDOFUDFNVL]H DFULWWVXFKWKDWFRQVLGHULQJDOOSRV VLEOHIDLOXU HPRGHV DV WUHVVHTXDOWR
s t ZRXOGOHDGWRDIDLOXUHLIDW>DFULWW7KHOLPLWVWDWHIXQFWLRQIRUIDWLJXHIDLOXUHFDQWKHQEHIRUPXODWHGDV

J [ =PLQ DFULWW-DW  <W<7  &D

RUFRQVHUYDWLYHO\

J [ =PLQ DFULWW -PD[ DW  <W<7  &E

7KHPLQLPXP PD[LPXP VKRXOGEHWDNHQIRUWKHWRWDOGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH7

(TXDWLRQV &D DQG &E DUHLOOXVWUDWHGLQILJXUH&

)LJXUH&²,OOXVWUDWLRQRIHTXDWLRQV &D DQG &E

&9HULILFDWLRQSURFHGXUHLQSDUWLDOIDFWRUGHVLJQ
7KHVDIHW\IRUPDWGHSHQGVRQWKHW\SHRIDQDO\VLV

,QWKHF DVHRIGDPDJHDF FXPXODWLRQPHWKRGVLQF RPELQDWLRQZLWK6 1OLQHVWKHYHULILFDWLRQUXOHFDQEHSUHVHQWHG


DV

Q 'F
 1LL <
gG
 &


‹(6$ (6,62 (

Ê 5 ˆ  &
1 L = 1 L Á g )I6L  IN ˜
Ë g 0I ¯

ZKHUH

QLDQG6LDUHWKHEHVWHVWLPDWHVRIWKHORDGKLVWRU\

5 IN LVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHRIWKHIDWLJXHUHVLVWDQFH

g )I LVWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUWKDWGHDOVZLWKWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHORDGOHYHODQGORDGPRGHO

g 0I LVWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUWKDWGHDOVZLWKWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHPDWHULDOPRGHO

gG LVWKHSDU WLDOIDFWRUWKDWGHDOV ZLWKWKHXQF HUWDLQWLHVLQGDPDJHDF FXPXODWLRQUXOHWKHGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH


DQGWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIIDLOXUH

)RUWKH)U DFWXUH0HF KDQLFVDSSU RDFKWKHY HULILFDWLRQU XOHF DQEHSU HVHQWHG DV IROORZV DVVXPLQJ WKH VLPSOLILHG
PHWKRGDFFRUGLQJWRHTXDWLRQ &E 

Ê 5 ˆ Ê 5 ˆ
D FULW Á g )6 N  N ˜ > D7 Á DN  g )6 (t ) IN ˜  &
Ë g 0 ¯ Ë g 0 ¯

ZKHUH

6N LVWKHORDGHIIHFWGXHWRWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFORDGRUORDGF\FOH

5N LVWKHU HOHYDQWF KDUDFWHULVWLFV WUHQJWKSU RSHUW\ IUDFWXUHWRXJKQHV V\ LHOGV WUHQJWK IRU WKH UHOHYDQW
WHPSHUDWXUH

DN LVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFLQLWLDOFUDFNVL]H

6 t LVWKHEHVWHVWLPDWHRIWKHORDGKLVWRU\

5IN DUHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVRIWKHFUDFNJURZWKPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHV

g DUHSDUWLDOIDFWRUV

7 LVWKHGHVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH

7KHOHYHORIWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVVKRXOGGHSHQGRQ

² WKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVDQGVHQVLWLYLWLHVRIWKHUDQGRPYDULDEOHV

² WKH GDPDJH WROHUDQFH RI WKH VWUXFWXUH WKDWLV WKHDELOLW\ RIWKHF UDFNHGV WUXFWXUHWRILQGDOWHU QDWLYHORDG
SDWKV

² WKHLQVSHFWHGLQWHUYDOVDQGWKHSUREDELOLW\RIFUDFNGHWHFWLRQ

² WKHDELOLW\WRHIIHFWUHSDLUV


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

$QQH['
LQIRUPDWLYH

'HVLJQEDVHGRQH[SHULPHQWDOPRGHOV

'6FRSH
'HVLJQEDVHGRQH[SHULPHQWDOPRGHOV RULQVKRUWGHVLJQE\WHVWLQJ LVDPHWKRGIRU HVWDEOLVKLQJGHVLJQYDOXHVRI
UHVLVWDQFHSU RSHUWLHVIRU GHILQHGV WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV DQGPDWHU LDOV7KHPHWKRGGHV FULEHG LQ WKLV DQQH[ LV WR D
ODUJHH[WHQWEDVHGRQDV WDWLVWLFDOHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHWHV WUHVXOWVFRQVLVWHQWZLWK WKHFRQFHSWRISUREDELOLVWLFGHVLJQ
DQGSDUWLDOIDFWRUGHVLJQ

7KHVFRSHRIDSSOLFDWLRQFRYHUV

² FDVHVZKLFKFDQQRWEHWUHDWHGE\WKHLQIRUPDWLRQJLYHQLQWKH&RGHV RI3UDFWLFHEHFDXVHDGHTXDWHWKHRUHWLFDO
PRGHOVRUGDWDDUHODFNLQJ

² FDVHVZKLFKDUHVRSDUWLFXODUWKDWWKHGDWDF RPPRQO\DSSOLHGIRU FDOFXODWLRQGRQRWU HIOHFWSURSHUO\WKH DFWXDO


FLUFXPVWDQFHV HJGXHWRDSDUWLFXODUSURGXFWLRQPHWKRG 

² FDVHV ZKHQ WKH H[LVWLQJ GHVLJQ IRUPXODH VHHP WROHDGWRY HU\F RQVHUYDWLYHU HVXOWVDQGDGLU HFWOLPLWV WDWHV
FKHFNLVH[SHFWHGWREULQJDERXWDPRUHHFRQRPLFDOVROXWLRQ

² GHULYDWLRQRIQHZGHVLJQIRUPXODH

7KLVDQQH[GRHVQRWFRYHUQRQGHVWUXFWLYHWHVWLQJTXDOLW\FRQWUROWHVWVIRUVSHFLILFPDWHULDOV HJVRLO VRPHIXUWKHU


HODERUDWLRQVDQGRUUHVWULFWLRQVPD\EHDSSURSULDWH

'*HQHUDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV
,QRUGHUWRHV WDEOLVKDU HOHYDQWWHVWDUUDQJHPHQWWKHH[ SHULPHQWVVKRXOGEHSU HFHGHGE\D TXDOLWDWLYHSUHOLPLQDU\
DQDO\VLVWRILQGRXW] RQHVZKLF KPLJKWEHF ULWLFDOIRU WKHEHKDY LRXU RI WKH FRQVLGHUHG HOHPHQW )XUWKHUPRUH DQ
XQDPELJXRXVGHILQLWLRQRIWKHOLPLWVWDWHXQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQVKRXOGEHJLYHQ

7HVWHGXQLWVVKRXOGSUHIHUDEO\E\SURGXFHGLQWKHVDPHVL]HDQGE\WKHVDPHWHFKQRORJ\DVWKRVHRIWKHXQLWVWREH
SURGXFHGDQGEXLOWLQDFFRUGLQJWRWKHWHVWLQJDQGLQUHOHYDQWVLWXDWLRQVUDQGRPO\FKRVHQIRUWHVWLQJ

7KHWHVWSURFHGXUHVKDOOQRWEHU HVWULFWHGWRU HFRUGLQJRQO\WKHILQDO YDOXHV$WWHQWLRQLVWREHSDLGWRSKHQRPHQD


ZKLFK RFFXU ZKHQ WKH FRQVLGHUHGOLPLWV WDWHLV H[ FHHGHGWRWKHDF FRPSDQ\LQJF LUFXPVWDQFHVDQGWRWKH
PHFKDQLVP RI WKLV OLPLW VWDWH DV ZHOO DVWRWKHERXQGDU \F RQGLWLRQV HJWRZKDWH[ WHQWWKH\ GLIIHU IU RPWKRV H
H[SHFWHGLQWKHDFWXDOVWUXFWXUHWRWKHORDGLQJFRQGLWLRQVHWF 

&LUFXPVWDQFHV ZKLFK RFFXU ZKHQ WKHF RQVLGHUHGOLPLWV WDWHLV H[ FHHGHGSDU WLFXODUO\WKHIDLOXU HPRGHZKLF KZDV
GHFLVLYHIRUIDLOXUHPD\QRWDOZD\VEHHY LGHQW'HYHORSPHQWRIWKHWHV WSURJUDPPHDQGHY DOXDWLRQRIWKHREWDLQHG
WHVWUHVXOWVUHTXLUHDSSURSULDWHWKHRUHWLFDONQRZOHGJHH[SHULHQFHLQWHVWLQJDQGHQJLQHHULQJMXGJHPHQW

7KHPHWKRGVXVHGIRUGHULYLQJGHVLJQYDOXHVIURPWKHWHVWVVKRXOGWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWWKH JHQHUDOO\ OLPLWHGQXPEHU


RIWHVWV7KHHYDOXDWLRQFDQEHPDGHRQWKHEDV LVRIDSU HH[LVWLQJDQDO\VLVPRGHO VHH' RULQWKHDEV HQFHRI
VXFKDPRGHOE\ GLUHFWHYDOXDWLRQ VHH' ,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHV HVWDWLVWLFDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQVLWV KRXOGEHQRWHGWKDW
WKHJHQHU DOWKHRU LHVRIV WUXFWXUDOEHKDY LRXUDQGWKHV HWRI FRPPRQO\ DFFHSWHG GHVLJQ UXOHV UHPDLQ YDOLG GXULQJ
GHVLJQE\WHVWLQJ

&RQFOXVLRQVGHULYHGIURPDSDUWLFXODULQYHVWLJDWLRQUHIHUWRWKHSU RSHUWLHVDQGRUSURGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJ\DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWKWKHVFRSHRIWKDWLQYHVWLJDWLRQ([WHQVLRQVRIWKHF RQFOXVLRQVUHTXLUHQHZWHV WVXQOHVVDQGH[ SDQVLRQRIWKH
REWDLQHGUHVXOWVWRRWKHUHOHPHQWFODVVHVLVSRVVLEOHEDVHGRQWKHRUHWLFDODQDO\VLV


‹(6$ (6,62 (

'&RQVLGHUDWLRQRIGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQUHDOLW\DQGWHVWLQJFRQGLWLRQV
7KHF RQGLWLRQVGXU LQJWHV WLQJPD\ GLIIHU IU RPWKHF RQGLWLRQV IRU WKH LQWHQGHG VWUXFWXUH LQ LWV DFWXDO HQYLURQPHQW
6XFKGLIIHUHQFHVVKRXOGEHDFFRXQWHGIRUE\VXLWDEO\GHWHUPLQHGFRQYHUVLRQRUPRGLILFDWLRQIDFWRUV

7KHFRQYHUVLRQIDFWRUhVKRXOGEHHVWDEOLVKHGE\H[SHULPHQWDORUWKHRUHWLFDODQDO\VLVEDVHGRQDJHQHUDOVWUXFWXUDO
WKHRU\DQGRURQH[SHULHQFH6RPHGHJUHHRIDUELWUDULQHVVLVXVXDOO\XQDYRLGDEOH

,QIOXHQFHVDFFRXQWHGIRUE\hFRXOGLQFOXGH

² VL]HHIIHFWV

² WLPH HIIHFWV QRUPDOO\WHV WVDU HSHU IRUPHGXQGHU V KRUWWHUPORDGLQJZKHU HDVWKHORDG FDUU\LQJF DSDFLW\DQG
GHIOHFWLRQVRIPDQ\PDWHULDOVGHSHQGRQORQJWHUPHIIHFWV 

² ERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQVRIWKHWHVWHGXQLWV IUHHRUIL[HGHWF 

² KXPLGLW\FRQGLWLRQVLQIOXHQFLQJWKHPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHV

:RUNPDQVKLSF RQGLWLRQVIRU LQV WDQFHSU RGXFWLRQDF FRUGLQJWRODERU DWRU\F RQGLWLRQVLQV WHDGRIDF WXDO FRQGLWLRQV
PD\LQIOXHQFHVWUXFWXUDOSURSHUWLHVFRQVLGHUDEO\ HJSURSHUWLHVRIMRLQWV LQDV VHPEOHGVWUXFWXUHV ,IWKHV HHIIHFWV
DUHFRQVLGHUHGWREHHV VHQWLDOFRUUHFWLRQVVKRXOGEHPDGHRU VSHFLPHQVIURPDFWXDOSURGXFWLRQTXDOLW\VKRXOGEH
XVHG

'3ODQQLQJ
3ULRUWRWKHH[HFXWLRQRIWHVWVDWHVWSODQVKRXOGEHGUDZQXSE\WKHGHVLJQHUDQGWKHWHVWLQJRUJDQL]DWLRQ7KHSODQ
VKRXOGFRQVLGHUWKHREMHFWLYHRIWKHWHV WDQGDOOV SHFLILFDWLRQVQHFHVVDU\IRUWKHV HOHFWLRQRUSURGXFWLRQRIWKHWHV W
VSHFLPHQVWKHH[HFXWLRQRIWKHWHVWVDQGWKHWHVWHYDOXDWLRQ,QSDUWLFXODUWKHWHVWSODQVKDOOGHDOZLWKWKHIROORZLQJ
LWHPV

D 6FRSHRILQIRUPDWLRQUHTXLUHGIURPWKHWHVWV HJUHTXLUHGSDUDPHWHUVDQGUDQJHRIYDOLGLW\ 

E 'HVFULSWLRQRIDOOSU RSHUWLHVDQGF RQGLWLRQVZKLF KPD\ LQIOXHQF HWKH EHKDYLRXU DW WKH OLPLW VWDWH XQGHU
FRQVLGHUDWLRQ HJJHRPHWULFDOSDUDPHWHUVDQGWKHLU WROHUDQFHVPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVSDUDPHWHUVLQIOXHQFHGE\
IDEULFDWLRQDQGHUHFWLRQSURFHGXUHVVFDOHHIIHFWVHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV 

F 0RGHVRIIDLOXUHDQGRUDQDO\VLVPRGHOVZLWKWKHDSSURSULDWHYDULDEOHV

G 0HDVXUHPHQWVRIUHOHYDQWSURSHUWLHVRIHDFKLQGLYLGXDOWHVWVSHFLPHQWREHFDUULHGRXWSULRUWRWKHH[HFXWLRQRI
WKH WHVWV H[DPSOHVRIWKHV HU HOHYDQWEDV LFY DULDEOHVDU HHQY LURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQF HVPDWHU LDOSU RSHUWLHVDQG
JHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV

H 6SHFLILFDWLRQVRIWKHSU RSHUWLHVRIWKHV SHFLPHQ HJ VSHFLILFDWLRQ IRU GLPHQVLRQV PDWHULDO DQG IDEULFDWLRQ RI
SURWRW\SHVVDPSOLQJSURFHGXUHVUHVWUDLQWV 

I 7KHQXPEHURIWKHVSHFLPHQDQGWKHVDPSOLQJSURFHGXUH

127(,IDQDQDO\VLVPRGHOLVDYDLODEOHDQGWKHYDOXHVRIDOOUDQGRPYDULDEOHVDUHPHDVXUHGWKHVDPSOLQJSURFHGXUHLV
QRWUHOHYDQW,QDOORWKHUFDVHVRQHVKRXOGHQVXUHWKDWWKH WHVWVSHFLPHQVDUHVHOHFWHGIURPDUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVDPSOH,W
PD\EHQHFHVVDU\WRDFFRXQWIRUSRSXODWLRQVIURPGLIIHUHQWSURGXFHUV HJE\WKHXVHRIZHLJKWLQJIDFWRUV 

127($GHVLJQSRLQWRULHQWHGVDPSOHLVUHFRPPHQGHGLIVDPSOHVDUHVPDOODQGRUZKHQWKHIDLOXUHPRGHPD\FKDQJH
DVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHEDVLFYDULDEOHV,QJHQHUDOWKLVLVVWURQJO\UHFRP PHQGHGIRUJHRPHWULFDOLPSHUIHFWLRQV)RUVWUHQJWK
SDUDPHWHUVWKLVFRQFHSWQHHGVWREHDVVHVVHGZLWKFDUH)RULQVWDQFHWKHUHPD\EHDGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQDSRRUVDPSOH
RIFRQFUHWHJUDGHDQGDQDYHUDJHVDPSOHRIFRQFUHWHJUDGHHYHQLIERWKKDYHWKHVDPHFXELFVWUHQJWK

J 6SHFLILFDWLRQVDERXWWKHORDGLQJDQGHQY LURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQVLQWKHWHV W HJORDGLQJSRLQWV ORDGLQJSDWKV LQ


WLPHDQGVSDFHWHPSHUDWXUHVORDGLQJE\GHIRUPDWLRQRUIRUFHFRQWURO /RDGLQJSDWKVVKDOOEHVHOHFWHGLQVXFK


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

DZD\ WKDWWKH\ DU HU HSUHVHQWDWLYHRIWKHDQWLF LSDWHGV FRSH RI DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH VWUXFWXUDO PHPEHU WKDW WKH\
DFFRXQWIRUSRVVLEOHXQIDYRXUDEOHSDWKVDQGRUWKDWWKH\ DFFRXQWIRUWKRVHSDWKVZKLFKDUHFRQVLGHUHGLQWKH
DQDO\VLVRIFRPSDUDEOHFDVHV

127( :KHUHVWUXFWXUDOSURSHUWLHVDUHFRQGLWLRQDORQRQHRUVHYHUDO HIIHFWV RI DFWLRQV ZKLFK DUH QRW YDULHG


V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ WKHQ WKHVH HIIHFWV VKRXOGEHVSHFLILHGE\WKHLUGHVLJQYDOXHV:KHQWKH\DUHLQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHRWKHU
SDUDPHWHUVRIWKHORDGLQJSDWKGHVLJQYDOXHVUHODWHGWRHVWLPDWHGORDGFRPELQDWLRQYDOXHVPD\EHDGRSWHG

K 7HVWLQJDU UDQJHPHQWV LQFOXGLQJPHDV XUHVWRHQV XUHV XIILFLHQWV WUHQJWK DQG VWLIIQHVV RI WKH ORDGLQJ DQG
VXSSRUWLQJULJVDQGFOHDUDQFHIRUGHIOHFWLRQVHWF 

L 2EVHUYDWLRQSRLQWVDQGPHWKRGVIRUREVHUYDWLRQDQGUHFRUGLQJ HJWLPHKLVWRULHVRIGLVSODFHPHQWVYHORFLWLHV
DFFHOHUDWLRQV VWUDLQV IRUFHV DQGSU HVVXUHVU HTXLUHGIU HTXHQF\DQGDF FXUDF\RIPHDV XUHPHQWVDQG
PHDVXULQJGHYLFHV 

''LUHFWHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHWHVWUHVXOWV
'*HQHUDO

,Q WKLV FODXVH LW LV DVVXPHG WKDW WKHU HVLVWDQFHRIDV WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWRU WKHV WUHQJWKRIDPDWHU LDOLV GLU HFWO\
HYDOXDWHGIU RPWKHWHV W,WLV IXU WKHUDV VXPHGWKDWWKHV WUHQJWK RI D VSHFLPHQ FDQ EH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ D VLQJOH
TXDQWLW\DQGWKDWWKHIDLOXUHPHFKDQLVPXQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQLVWKHFULWLFDORQHIRUDOOWHVWV

,IWKHU HVXOWVDU HXV HGLQF RQQHFWLRQZLWKDSU REDELOLVWLFGHV LJQPHWKRGWKHWHV WGDWDPD\ EHXV HGWR XSGDWH D
SUHGHILQHGSULRUGLVWULEXWLRQRQWKHVWDWLVWLFDOSDUDPHWHUVRIWKHUHVLVWDQFH*XLGDQFHLVJLYHQLQ'

,IWKHSDU WLDOIDF WRUIRU PDWLV XV HGHLWKHU WKHF ODVVLFDOPHWKRGRI'RU WKH%D\ HVLDQPHWKRGRI'PD\ EH
DSSOLHG%RWKPHWKRGV DU HXV HGLQSU DFWLFH6RPHWLPHV DPL[ WXUHRIERWKPHWKRGV LV XV HG,QPDQ\  FDVHV WKH
QXPHULFDOY DOXHVZLOOQRWGLIIHU F RQVLGHUDEO\$U HFRPPHQGDEOHSU RFHGXUH LV WR HYDOXDWH WKH WHVWV XVLQJ ERWK
PHWKRGVDQGF RPSDUHWKHU HVXOWV,IWKHU HVXOWVDU HF ORVHWKHF KRLFHGRHV QRW PDWWHU ,I WKH\ DUH QRW FORVH RQH
VKRXOGKDYHYHU\VWURQJDUJXPHQWVIRUQRWVHOHFWLQJWKHPRVWXQIDYRXUDEOHUHVXOW

'3DUWLDOIDFWRUGHVLJQ&ODVVLFDODSSURDFK

,QWKLVPHWKRGWKHGHVLJQUHVLVWDQFH5GLVWREHFDOFXODWHGE\WKHIRUPXOD

5NHVW h
5G ◊  '
g P g 5G

ZKHUH

5NHVW LVWKHHVWLPDWHRIWKHORZHUFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH5NRIWKHUHVLVWDQFHGHWHUPLQHGVWDWLVWLFDOO\IURPWHVWV

gP LVWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUIRUWKHPDWHULDO

h LVWKHPHDQYDOXHRIWKHFRQYHUVLRQFRHIILFLHQWRUPRGLILFDWLRQIDFWRU

g5G LVWKHPRGHOXQFHUWDLQW\FRHIILFLHQW

7KHSDU WLDOIDF WRUgPVKRXOGEHV SHFLILHGDF FRUGLQJWRWKHY DOXHVQRU PDOO\XV HGIRU WKHPDWHU LDODQGIDLOXU HPRGH
XQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQ7KHGHF LVLRQDVWRZKHWKHU RUQRWWKHU HLVVXIILFLHQWUHVHPEODQFHEHWZHHQWKHWHVWSLHFHVDW
KDQGDQGWKHYDOLGLW\UHJLRQRIWKHVHOHFWHGSDUWLDOIDFWRULVDPDWWHURIHQJLQHHULQJMXGJHPHQW,QWKRVHFDVHVZKHUH
WKHGLV FUHSDQF\EHWZHHQWKHWHV WVDQGWKHV WDQGDUGGHV LJQV LWXDWLRQVLV  WRR ODUJH WR VHOHFW SDUWLDO IDFWRUV ZLWK
VXIILFLHQWFRQILGHQFHWKHPHWKRGGHVFULEHGLQ'VKRXOGEHXVHG

7KHPRGHOXQF HUWDLQW\F RHIILFLHQW g5GLV PHDQWWRF RYHUWKHU DQGRPQHVVRI hYDOXHVZLWKU HVSHFWWR WKH XQNQRZQ
GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHWHVWLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQGWKHDFWXDOFRQGLWLRQV7KHYDOXHRIg5GKDVWREHGHILQHGSULPDULO\E\
WKH UHVHDUFKHUWDN LQJLQWRDF FRXQWWKHREMHF WLYHVRIWKHWHV WLQJOLPLWV WDWHU HTXLUHPHQWVIDLOXU HPRGHDQG


‹(6$ (6,62 (

LQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHSU RGXFWLRQDQGWKHV LWHFRQGLWLRQV7KHSULPDU\g5GYDOXHPD\EHF RUUHFWHGE\WKHGHV LJQHU


DFFRUGLQJWRKLVMXGJHPHQWDERXWWKHSURGXFWLRQDQGWKHVLWHFRQGLWLRQV,QJHQHUDOLWVKRXOGEHg5G�

7KHORZHUFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH 5NHVWLVHVWLPDWHGIURPWKHWHV WUHVXOWVWDNLQJLQWRDF FRXQWDF RQILGHQFHOHYHORIDW


OHDVW,QWKHDEV HQFHRIRWKHU LQIRU PDWLRQWKHF KDUDFWHULVWLFY DOXHLV DV VXPHG WR EH WKH  IUDFWLOH RI D
QRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ7KHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHLVHVWLPDWHGE\

5 NHVW = P5 - N VV5  '

ZKHUH

P5 LVWKHVDPSOHPHDQYDOXH

V5 LVWKHVDPSOHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ

N6 LVWKHFRHIILFLHQWGHSHQGLQJRQWKHVDPSOHVL]H

7KHYDOXHVN6GHSHQGRQWKHQXPEHU RIWHVWV QDQGRQWKHF KRVHQFRQILGHQFHOHYHO7DEOH'JLYHV NVYDOXHVIRU


WKHDQGIUDFWLOHVDQGDF RQILGHQFHOHYHO7KHY DOXHVLQWDEOH'DU HEDVHGRQWKHQRQF HQWUDO
WGLVWULEXWLRQ 

7KHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ V5LQHTXDWLRQ ' LVWREHHV WDEOLVKHGIURPWKHWHV WUHVXOWV,QV RPHFDVHVWKHV WDQGDUG


GHYLDWLRQPD\EHFRQVLGHUHGWREHNQRZQDSULRUL,QWKDWFDVH

5 NHVW = P5 - N s V5  '

ZKHUH

P5 LVWKHVDPSOHPHDQYDOXH

s5 LVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ

Ns LVWKHFRHIILFLHQWGHSHQGLQJRQVDPSOHVL]H

7KHYDOXHRINsVKRXOGEHWDNHQIURPWDEOH'

127(6
,QWKHDERYHSURFHGXUHWKHQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQLVXVHG7KLVDVVXPSWLRQFDQEHUHJDUGHGDVDUHODWLYHO\FRQVHUYDWLYHRQH,Q
UHDOLW\ RQH PD\ DOVR FRQVLGHU /RJQRUPDO RU:HLEXOOGLVWULEXWLRQV8 VLQJWKHVHGLVWULEXWLRQVRQHP D\ILQGP RUHHFRQRP LF
GHVLJQYDOXHV,WLVVWUHVVHGKRZ HYHUWKDWVXFKDFKRLFHVKRXOGEHEDVHGRQHYLGHQFHIURP P DQ\ VLPLODU  WHVWV 'XULQJ
HYDOXDWLRQRIWKRVHWHVWVVSHFLDODWWHQWLRQVKRXOGEHJLYHQWRWKHVKDSHRIWKH GLVWULEXWLRQDVDZKROH HVSHFLDOO\LWVVNHZQHVV
DQGWKHORZHUWDLOLQSDUWLFXODU

,QWKLVDSSURDFKWKHVWDWLVWLFDOXQFHUWDLQW\LVRQO\FRQVLGHUHGLQWKHDVVHVVP HQWRIWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLF YDOXHLQWKHVWHSIURP


FKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHWRGHVLJQYDOXHQRVWDWLVWLFDOXQFHUWDLQW\LVLQFOXGHG7KLVPLJKWEHWRRRSWLPLVWLFLQVRPHFDVHV

BBBBBBBBBB
 0RUHLQIRUP DWLRQP D\EHIRXQGLQ,62  6WDWLVWLFDOP HWKRGVIRUTXDOLW\FRQWURORIEXLOGLQJP DWHULDOVDQG
FRPSRQHQWV


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

7DEOH'²9DOXHVRIN6s5XQNQRZQ &RQILGHQFHOHYHO 

3UREDELOLW\ 1XPEHURIWHVWVQ
3         •
         
         
         

7DEOH'²9DOXHVRINss5NQRZQ &RQILGHQFHOHYHO 

3UREDELOLW\ 1XPEHURIWHVWVQ
3         ∞
         
         
         

'3DUWLDOIDFWRUGHVLJQ%D\HVLDQPHWKRG

,QWKH%D\HVLDQPHWKRGWKHGHVLJQYDOXHPD\EHHVWLPDWHGGLUHFWO\IURPWKHWHVWGDWD

ÔÏ Ê  ˆ Ô¸
5 G = h G ÌP5 - W nGV5 Á + ˜ ˝  '
ÔÓ Ë Q ¯ Ô˛
ZKHUH

P5 LVWKHVDPSOHPHDQYDOXH

V5 LVWKHVDPSOHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ

WνG LVWKHFRHIILFLHQWRIWKH6WXGHQWGLVWULEXWLRQ WDEOH' 

Q LVWKHQXPEHURIWHVWV

hG LVWKHGHVLJQYDOXHRIWKHFRQYHUVLRQIDFWRU

9DOXHVIRUWνGIROORZIURPWDEOH'ZKHUHn  Q-b5 aG bZKHUHbLVWKHWKHWDU JHWUHOLDELOLW\LQGH[DQGaG WKH


GHVLJQY DOXHIRU WKH) 250 )LUVW2 UGHU5HOLDELOLW\ 0HWKRG LQIOXHQF H FRHIILFLHQW :LWKRXW IXUWKHU LQGLFDWLRQ RQH
VKRXOGXVHaG LIWKHXQFHUWDLQW\RI5LVGRPLQDWLQJDQGaG RWKHUZLVH VHHDQQH[((DQG( 

(TXDWLRQ ' FDQEHXVHGGLUHFWO\ZLWKLQWKHGHVLJQYDOXHPHWKRG

)RUXVHZLWKLQWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUPHWKRGWZRZD\VDUHSRVVLEOH

D 7KHF KDUDFWHULVWLFY DOXH 5NLV GHILQHGXV LQJWKHV DPHHTXDWLRQ ' EXWZLWK b5 WKH SDUWLDO IDFWRU
IROORZVIURPgP 5N5G

E 7KH gPY DOXHQRU PDOO\XV HGIRU WKHW\ SHRIPDWHU LDODQGIDLOXU HPRGHLV XV HGLQWKLV  ZD\ WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLF
YDOXH 5NLVGHILQHGDV  5N  gP5GQRWHWKDWLQWKLV FDVH 5NPD\KDYHDSU REDELOLW\RIH[ FHHGLQJWKHOLPLWYDOXH
GLIIHUHQWIURP

:KLFKPHWKRGLV F KRVHQLV DPDWWHU RISU HVHQWDWLRQRQO\ ,QERWKF DVHV WKH VDPH GHVLJQ YDOXH LV XVHG LQ WKH
YHULILFDWLRQSURFHGXUH

(TXDWLRQ ' LVEDVHGRQDQRU PDOGLVWULEXWLRQIRU 5DQGDQRQLQIRUPDWLYHSULRUGLVWULEXWLRQIRUERWKWKHV WDQGDUG


GHYLDWLRQDQGWKHPHDQ,IWKHV WDQGDUGGHY LDWLRQLV N QRZQLQDGY DQFHRQH PD\ UHSODFH WKH VDPSOH VWDQGDUG
GHYLDWLRQ E\WKHGLV WULEXWLRQV WDQGDUGGHY LDWLRQDQGWDN H n  ∞)RU WKHSU RFHVVLQJRIRWKHU W\ SHVRISU LRU
LQIRUPDWLRQ WKH IRUPXODH JLYHQ LQ ' FDQEHXV HG1RWHLQ'DERXWWKHF KRLFHRIWKHGLV WULEXWLRQLV DOV R
DSSOLFDEOHWRWKHDSSURDFKLQWKLVVXEFODXVH


‹(6$ (6,62 (

7KH%D\HVLDQPHWKRGDVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVVXEFODXVHLVYHU\VHQVLWLYHWRWKHREVHUYHGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ σ5LIWKLV
TXDQWLW\LV QRWN QRZQLQDGY DQFH,WPLJKWEHDGY LVDEOH WR HOLPLQDWH H[FHVVLYHO\ VPDOO DQG ODUJH YDOXHV RI WKH
SRVWHULRUVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQLQRUGHUWRDYRLGXQVDIHRUXQHFRQRPLFUHVXOWV2QHSRVVLEOHZD\WRDFKLHYHWKLVLVE\
FKRRVLQJDSURSHUSULRUGLVWULEXWLRQIRUWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQHYHQLQWKHDEVHQFHRIVSHFLILFLQIRUPDWLRQ7KHPHUH
IDFWWKDWDQHQJLQHHU F RQVLGHUVV RPHWHF KQLFDOV ROXWLRQIHDV LEOHHQRXJKWRSXWLWWRWKHWHV WF DQEH XVHG DV DQ
DUJXPHQW,Q'PRUHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKLVSURFHGXUHLVJLYHQ

7DEOH'²9DOXHVRIWν

'HJUHHVRIIUHHGRPn
        ∞
b5 F -b5
          
          
          
          
          
127(²,Is5LVNQRZQn ∞VKRXOGEHXVHG

(;$03/(

$VDQH[ DPSOHFRQVLGHUDV DPSOHRI Q WHV WSLHFHVKDYLQJD VDPSOHPHDQ PHTXDOWRN 1DQGDV DPSOH


VWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQV5HTXDOWRN17KHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHLVJLYHQE\ n  


5 N = P5 -  V5  + = P5 -  V5 =  -  ¥  =  N1


1RWHWKDWWKHF ODVVLFDOPHWKRGZRXOG OHDGWR 5N  P5−V5  N1 VHHWDEOH' 7KHU HVXOWLVDOPRVWWKH
VDPH

'(YDOXDWLRQXVLQJSUREDELOLVWLFPHWKRGV

,QDIXOOSU REDELOLVWLFWU HDWPHQWWKHILU VWV WHSLV WKHHV WDEOLVKPHQWRIDV RFDOOHGSU LRU GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQ IRU WKH
XQNQRZQGLV WULEXWLRQSDU DPHWHUVRIWKHU HVLVWDQFH 56XF KDGLV WULEXWLRQV KRXOGU HIOHFWDOOWKHDY DLODEOH SULRU
LQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHV HSDU DPHWHUV* LYHQWKLV SU LRUGLV WULEXWLRQDQGJLY HQWKHV WDWLVWLFDOWHV WGDWDDSRV WHULRU
GLVWULEXWLRQFDQEHGHULYHGIURP

( )()
I ¢¢( q) = &/ GDWD T I ¢ T  '

ZKHUH

I≤ T LVWKHSRVWHULRUGLVWULEXWLRQRIT

I¢ T LVWKHSULRUGLVWULEXWLRQRIT

/ GDWD⎪T LVWKHOLNHOLKRRGIXQFWLRQ

T LVWKHYHFWRURIGLVWULEXWLRQSDUDPHWHUV HJPHDQDQGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ 

& LVWKHQRUPDOL]LQJFRQVWDQW

7KHQWKHXSGDWHGGLVWULEXWLRQRI5LWVHOIJLYHQWKHSULRULQIRUPDWLRQDQGWKHWHVWGDWDLVJLYHQE\

Ú( )
I5 ≤ (5 ) = I 5 T I ¢¢(T )GT  '


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

ZKHUH

I 5⎪T LVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRI5IRUJLYHQYDOXHVRIT

I≤5 5 LVWKHXSGDWHGGLVWULEXWLRQRI5

7KLVGLVWULEXWLRQIRU 5FDQGLUHFWO\EHXVHGLQDSU REDELOLVWLFGHV LJQSU RFHGXUH,WLV DOV RSRV VLEOHWRGHU LYHGHV LJQ
YDOXHVRQWKHEDVLVRIHTXDWLRQ ' 

:HVKDOOIXUWKHUFRQVLGHUWKHFDVHWKDW 5KDVDQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ7KHSDUDPHWHUYHFWRURIGLVWULEXWLRQSDUDPHWHUV
WKHQFRQWDLQVWKHPHDQµDQGWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQs/HWWKHSULRUGLVWULEXWLRQEHJLYHQE\

I ¢(ms ) = Ns
- (n ¢+d {Q¢}+) Ï
H[SÌ-

Ó s
 { }
 ¸
n ¢(V ) + Q ¢(m - P ¢ ) ˝

˛
 '

ZKHUH

δ Q¢  IRUQ¢ 

δ Q¢  IRUQ¢!

7KLVVSHFLDOFKRLFHDOORZVDIXU WKHUDQDO\WLFDOWUHDWPHQWRIWKHLQWHJU DOV ' DQG ' 7KHSULRUGLVWULEXWLRQ '


FRQWDLQVIRXUSDUDPHWHUVP¢Q¢V¢DQGn¢7KHPHDQLQJRIWKHVHSDUDPHWHUVLVH[SODLQHGEHORZ

7KHSDUDPHWHUV V¢DQG n¢FKDUDFWHUL]HWKHSU LRULQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHV WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ7KHH[ SHFWDWLRQDQGWKH


FRHIILFLHQWRIYDULDWLRQRIWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQsFDQDV\PSWRWLFDOO\ IRUODUJHn¢ EHH[SUHVVHGDV

( s  V¢  '


V (s ) =  '
n ¢

7KHSU LRULQIRU PDWLRQDERXWWKHPHDQLV F KDUDFWHUL]HGE\  P¢ Q¢DQG V¢7KHH[ SHFWDWLRQDQGWKHF RHIILFLHQWRI


YDULDWLRQRIWKHPHDQmFDQDV\PSWRWLFDOO\ IRUODUJHYDOXHVRIn¢ EHH[SUHVVHGDV

( µ  P¢  '


V (m ) =  '
P¢ Q¢

,WLVDOVRSRVVLEOHWRLQWHU SUHWWKHSU LRULQIRUPDWLRQDVWKHU HVXOWRIK\SRWKHWLFDOSULRUWHVWVHULHVRQHIRUWKHPHDQ


DQGRQHIRUWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ,QWKDWFDVHZHKDYHIRUWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ

V¢ LVWKHK\SRWKHWLFDOVDPSOHYDOXH

n¢ LVWKHK\SRWKHWLFDOQXPEHURIGHJUHHVRIIUHHGRPIRUV¢

7KHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHPHDQUHTXLUHVWZRDGGLWLRQDOSDUDPHWHUV

P¢ LVWKHK\SRWKHWLFDOVDPSOHDYHUDJH

Q¢ LVWKHK\SRWKHWLFDOQXPEHURIREVHUYDWLRQVIRUP¢

,QRWKHUZRUGV P¢DQG V¢UHSUHVHQWWKHEHV WHVWLPDWHVIRUWKHPHDQDQGV WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ7KURXJKWKHF KRLFHRI


Q¢DQGn¢WKHXQFHUWDLQW\ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHHVWLPDWHVFDQEHH[SUHVVHG

$OVRQRWHWKDWIRU DWHV WZHQRU PDOO\KDY H n  Q -EXWWKDWWKHSU LRUSDU DPHWHUV Q¢DQG ν¢PD\ EHF KRVHQ
LQGHSHQGHQWO\IURPHDFKRWKHU


‹(6$ (6,62 (

127(6
,IYHU\OLWWOHLQIRUPDWLRQLVDYDLODEOH Q¢DQG n¢VKRXOGEHFKRVHQHTXDOWR]HUR,QWKDWFDVHWKHILQDOUHVXOWVZ LOOEHHTXDOWR
WKRVHRI',ISDVWH[SHULHQFHOHDGVWRDQDOPRVWGHWHUPLQLVWLFNQRZOHGJHDERXWWKHPHDQDQGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ Q¢DQGn¢
FRXOGEHJLYHQUHODWLYHO\KLJKHUYDOXHVIRULQVWDQFHFRUUHVSRQGLQJWR9 s  RU9 m  V¢P¢
,QPDQ\FDVHVLWVHHPVUHDVRQDEOHWRDVVXPHWKDWWKHUHLVYHU\OLWWOHRUQRSULRULQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHPHDQ VRQ¢  EXWWKDW
LWLVSRVVLEOHWRREWDLQDIDLUO\JRRG HVWLPDWHRIs¢$VDQH[DP SOHOHWWKHFRHIILFLHQWRIYDULDWLRQRI sEHLQWKHRUGHURI
ZKLFKDFFRUGLQJWRHTXDWLRQ '  FRUUHVSRQGVWR n¢ 6XFKDP RGHOP D\EHEDVHGRQ WKH UHVXOW RI PDQ\ SUHYLRXV WHVW
VDPSOHVVKRZLQJFRQVLGHUDEOHYDULDELOLW\LQWKHPHDQEXWVLJQLILFDQWO\OHVVLQWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ)RUFRQFUHWHFXEHVWKLVLV
YHU\FORVHWRUHDOLW\:KHQWKLVRSWLRQLVVHOHFWHGZ HDYRLGWKHVLWXDWLRQ E\ZKLFKVPDOOVDPSOHVOHDGWRYHU\XQHFRQRPLFDORU
YHU\XQVDIHUHVXOWV

8VLQJHTXDWLRQ ' RQHPD\FRPELQHWKHSULRULQIRUPDWLRQFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\HTXDWLRQ ' DQGDWHV WUHVXOWRI Q


REVHUYDWLRQVZLWKV DPSOHPHDQ PDQGV DPSOHV WDQGDUGGHY LDWLRQ V7KHU HVXOWLV DSRV WHULRU GLVWULEXWLRQ IRU WKH
XQNQRZQPHDQDQGV WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRI 5ZKLFKLVDJDLQJLY HQE\HTXDWLRQ ' EXWZLWKSDU DPHWHUVJLYHQE\
WKHIROORZLQJXSGDWLQJUXOHV

Q≤ Q¢Q  '

ν≤ ν¢νδ^Q¢`  '

P≤Q≤ Q¢P¢QP  '

>ν≤ V≤ Q≤ P≤ @ >ν¢ V¢ Q¢ P¢ @>νVQP@  '

ZKHUHν Q-δ Q¢  IRUQ¢ DQGδ Q¢  RWKHUZLVH

8VLQJHTXDWLRQ ' WKHSUHGLFWLYHYDOXHRI5FDQEHIRXQGIURP

Ê ˆ
5 = P ¢¢ - W n ¢¢V ¢¢ Á  + ˜  '
Ë Q ¢¢ ¯

+HUHWν≤KDVDFHQWUDOWGLVWULEXWLRQYDOXHVRI Wν≤IRUJLYHQSUREDELOLWLHVRIH[FHHGLQJWKHOLPLWVDUHJLYHQLQWDEOH'
0RGLILFDWLRQVIRUORJQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQVRI5DUHVWUDLJKWIRUZDUG VHHDOVR' 

(;$03/(

&RQVLGHURQFHPRUHH[DPSOHEXWDVVXPHSUHYLRXVWHVWVHULHVKDYHVKRZQWKDW

² WKHVDPSOHPHDQLVHTXDOWRN1RQDYHUDJHEXWZLWKYHU\KLJKVFDWWHU

² WKHVDPSOHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQLVHTXDOWRN1RQDYHUDJHZLWKDFRHIILFLHQWRIYDULDWLRQ9RI

$FFRUGLQJWRHTXDWLRQV ' WR ' WKLVSULRULQIRUPDWLRQOHDGVWRWKHIROORZLQJSULRUGLVWULEXWLRQSDUDPHWHUV

P¢ N1Q¢ V¢ N1n¢  9    ×  

1RZFRPELQHWKLVSULRULQIRUPDWLRQZLWKWKHVDPHWHVWUHVXOWVDVLQH[ DPSOH WKUHHVSHFLPHQVZLWKV DPSOHPHDQ


P N 1DQGV DPSOHV WDQGDUGGHY LDWLRQ V N 1 7KHQHTXDWLRQV  ' WR ' JLY HWKHIROORZLQJ
SDUDPHWHUVIRUWKHSRVWHULRUGLVWULEXWLRQ

Q≤  

n≤  

P≤ N1

 V≤ × ××××

RU V≤ N1


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

8VLQJHTXDWLRQ ' DQGWDEOH'WKLVOHDGVWRWKHIROORZLQJUHVXOWIRUWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH


RN =  - 
 ¥  + =  -  ¥  =  N1


7KHFKDQJHLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVIURPN1WRN 1LVGXHWRWKHHIIHF WRIWKHSU LRULQIRUPDWLRQ)RUGHVLJQ


YDOXHVWKHGLVFUHSDQFLHVPD\HYHQEHODUJHU

'(YDOXDWLRQRQWKHEDVLVRIDQDQDO\VLVPRGHO
$VVXPHWKDWDQDQDO\ VLVPRGHOIRU WKHV WUXFWXUDOSU RSHUW\XQGHU F RQVLGHUDWLRQ LV DYDLODEOH /HW WKH PRGHO EH
FRPSOHWHH[FHSWIRUDQXQNQRZQFRHIILFLHQWθWREHGHWHUPLQHGIURPWKHWHVWV6XFKDPRGHOFDQEHZULWWHQDV

< qJ ;:  '

ZKHUH

; LVWKHYHFWRURIUDQGRPYDULDEOHV

: LVWKHVHWRIPHDVXUDEOHGHWHUPLQLVWLFYDULDEOHV

J  LVWKHPRGHO

< LVWKHPHDVXUDEOHRXWSXWSDUDPHWHURIWKHPRGHO

q LVWKHXQNQRZQFRHIILFLHQWWREHGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHH[SHULPHQW

7KHSDUDPHWHUqLVDOVRUHIHUUHGWRDVWKHPRGHOXQFHUWDLQW\,QWKHDEV HQFHRIRWKHULQIRUPDWLRQLWZLOOEHDV VXPHG


WKDWqKDVDORJQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQZKLFKPHDQVWKDWq¢ OQqLVQRUPDO

$VVXPHDVHULHVRIH[SHULPHQWVL QLVFDUULHGRXWZKHUH

± YDOXHVRI:KDYHEHHQVHWWRZL 

± YDOXHVRI;KDYHEHHQPHDVXUHGDV[L 

± YDOXHVRI<KDYHEHHQPHDVXUHGDV\L 

)URPWKHVHUHVXOWVRQHPD\GHULYHWKHIROORZLQJVHWRIREVHUYDWLRQVIRUWKHXQNQRZQFRHIILFLHQWq 

\i
qi =  '
(
J [ i  Zi )
0HDQDQGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQIRUq ¢ OQqWKHQIROORZIURP

Q

P (q ¢) = Â
Q =
q L¢  '
L

Q

V (q ¢) =

Q -  =
{q L¢ - P (q ¢ )}
Â

 '
L

ZLWKq¢LJLYHQE\

q¢L OQ^\LJ [LZL `  '


‹(6$ (6,62 (

7KHGHVLJQYDOXHqGLQFOXGLQJWKHVWDWLVWLFDOXQFHUWDLQWLHVLVJLYHQE\

ÔÏ Ê  ˆ Ô¸
q G = H[S{PH[
(q ¢)} S ̱W nGV (q ¢) Á + ˜ ˝  '
ÔÓ Ë Q ¯ Ô˛

7KHIDF WRUH[ S^P q ¢ `LV RIWHQU HIHUUHGWRDV WKHELDV IDF WRULI P q ¢  WKHQH[ S>P q ¢ @ DQGWKHPRGHOLV
FDOOHGXQELDVHG

9DOXHVIRU WνGIROORZIURPWDEOH'ZKHU Hn  Q- b5  aGbZLWK bWKHWDU JHWUHOLDELOLW\LQGH[DQG aGWKHGHV LJQ
YDOXHIRUWKH)250LQIOXHQFHFRHIILFLHQW)DLOLQJRWKHULQGLFDWLRQVRQHVKRXOGXVHaG LIWKHXQF HUWDLQW\RI 5LV
GRPLQDWLQJDQGaG RWKHUZLVH VHHDQQH[( 

7KHGHVLJQUHVLVWDQFH5GRIWKHVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWGHVLJQHGE\WHVWLQJFDQWKHQEHFDOFXODWHGDVIROORZV


RG = h G g( x G   w )  '
gG

+HUHγG qGDQGhGLVWKHGHVLJQYDOXHRIWKHPRGHOXQFHUWDLQW\


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

$QQH[(
LQIRUPDWLYH

3ULQFLSOHVRIUHOLDELOLW\EDVHGGHVLJQ

(,QWURGXFWLRQ
7KHREMHFWLYHVRIWKLVDQQH[DUH

² WRJLYHVRPHEDFNJURXQGLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKLV,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUG

² WRFRPSOHWHFODXVHZLWKPRUHGHWDLOHGGHVFULSWLRQVDERXWSULQFLSOHVDQGPHWKRGV

² WRJLYHUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVFRQFHUQLQJWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRISUREDELOLVWLFPHWKRGV

3UREDELOLVWLFPHWKRGVFDQLQSU LQFLSOHEHXV HGIRUDOOY HULILFDWLRQSUREOHPVZKLFKFDQEHGHVFULEHGZLWKWKHDLGRI


PDWKHPDWLFDOU HODWLRQVZKHQWKHV HWRIU DQGRPHY HQWVF DQEHLGHQWLILHG7KHLU XV HF DQEH GLYLGHG LQWR WZR PDLQ
JURXSV FDOLEUDWLRQ RI VDIHW\ HOHPHQWV HJSDU WLDOIDF WRUV DQGGLU HFWDSSOLF DWLRQIRU GHV LJQSXU SRVHV7KH
DSSOLFDWLRQIRUGHVLJQSXUSRVHVJHQHUDOO\FRQFHUQVDGYDQFHGSUREOHPVRIVXFKDFKDUDFWHUWKDWPDNHVWKHFRPPRQ
YHULILFDWLRQPHWKRGVOHVVVXLWDEOH'HVLJQDVVLVWHGE\WHVWLQJDQGWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIH[LVWLQJVWUXFWXUHDUHWZRNLQGV
RISUREOHPVZKLFKDUHRIWHQDPHQDEOHWRSUREDELOLVWLFWUHDWPHQW

7KLVDQQH[LVPDLQO\IRUWKHXVHRI

² WKRVHZKRKDYHWKHWDVNRISURGXFLQJQDWLRQDODQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRGHVRUUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV

² GHVLJQHUVZLVKLQJWREHLQIRUPHGDERXWUHOLDELOLW\EDVHGGHVLJQ

² UHVHDUFKHUVLQWKHILHOGRISUREDELOLW\EDVHGGHVLJQ

7KHDQQH[FRQWDLQVVRPHJHQHUDODVSHFWVRIGHVLJQEDVHGRQSUREDELOLVWLFPHWKRGV,WPD\EHUHJDUGHGDVDVWDWH
RIWKHDUWUHSRUW&ODXVHV(WR(DSSO\PDLQO\WRXOWLPDWHOLPLWV WDWHVEXWLQPDQ\FDVHVWKH\DUHDOVRDSSOLFDEOH
WRLU UHYHUVLEOHV HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWV WDWHV7 KH\DU HJHQHU DOO\QRWDSSOLF DEOHWR SUREOHPV LQYROYLQJ UHYHUVLEOH
VHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHV

(8QFHUWDLQW\PRGHOOLQJ
7KLVF ODXVHWU HDWVWKHXQF HUWDLQWLHVRIEDV LFY DULDEOHVLHDF WLRQVPDWHU LDOSU RSHUWLHVDQGJHRPHWU LFDOGDWD ,W LV
DVVXPHG WKDW WKHEDV LFY DULDEOHVDOV RLQF OXGHU DQGRPY DULDEOHV qZKLF KDU HDV VXPHGWRU HSUHVHQWWKHPRGHO
XQFHUWDLQWLHV VHH DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDQDO\VLVPRGHOV

(6RXUFHVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHV

$FFRUGLQJWRWKUHHW\SHVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVPD\EHLGHQWLILHG

² LQKHUHQWUDQGRPYDULDELOLW\RUXQFHUWDLQW\

² XQFHUWDLQW\GXHWRLQDGHTXDWHNQRZOHGJH

² VWDWLVWLFDOXQFHUWDLQW\

7KHVHW\SHVFDQEHIXUWKHUVXEGLYLGHGDVIROORZV

D ,QKHUHQWUDQGRPYDULDELOLWLHVDQGXQFHUWDLQWLHV F DQEHGLY LGHGLQWRWKRV HXQF HUWDLQWLHVZKLF KF DQDQG


FDQQRWEHDIIHFWHGE\KXPDQDFWLYLWLHV0DQ\NLQGVRIDF WLRQSDU DPHWHUV HJV QRZORDGRQJU RXQGZLQGV SHHG
DQGHDU WKTXDNHJU RXQGPRWLRQLQWHQV LW\ EHORQJWRWKHV HFRQGF DWHJRU\6RGRV WUHQJWKY DOXHV HJ VRLO


‹(6$ (6,62(

SDUDPHWHUV 7KHILUVWFDWHJRU\FRQFHUQVIRUH[DPSOHWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVRIVWUHQJWKYDOXHVRIVWHHORUFRQFUHWHRURI
WKHGLPHQVLRQVRIVWHHOEHDPV7KHVHXQFHUWDLQWLHVFDQEHGHFUHDVHGE\WKHXVHRIPRUHDGYDQFHGSURGXFWLRQDQG
TXDOLW\FRQWUROPHWKRGVZKLFKRQWKHRWKHU KDQGPD\FDXVHFRVWVWRLQFUHDVH7KXVZLWKLQFHUWDLQOLPLWVWKHOHYHO
RI XQFHUWDLQW\ FDQ EH FKRVHQZLWKU HJDUGWRHF RQRPLFF RQVHTXHQFHV7KHU HIRUHWKHGLV WLQFWLRQEHWZHHQWKHWZR
FDWHJRULHVPD\EHLPSRUWDQWLIHFRQRPLFRSWLPL]DWLRQLVFRQVLGHUHG

E 8QFHUWDLQWLHV GXH WR LQDGHTXDWH NQRZOHGJHF DQDOV REHV XEGLYLGHGLQWRWZRF DWHJRULHV2 QHF DWHJRU\
LQFOXGHVIRU H[ DPSOHWKHPRGHOXQF HUWDLQWLHVRIDF WLRQHIIHF WPRGHOV RU U HVLVWDQFHPRGHOV  IRU ZKLFK NQRZOHGJH
FDQEHLQFUHDVHG DQGWKXVXQFHUWDLQW\FDQEHGHFUHDVHG E\UHVHDUFKRURWKHUVLPLODUDFWLYLWLHV$OVRPHDVXUHPHQW
HUURUVEHORQJWRWKLV F DWHJRU\RIXQF HUWDLQWLHV,QWKHRWKHU F DWHJRU\EHORQJIRU H[ DPSOHXQF HUWDLQWLHVZKLF K
GHSHQG RQ IXWXUH GHYHORSPHQW2 QHH[ DPSOHLV WKHIXWXU HGHY HORSPHQWRIWKHWU DIILFORDGV RQU RDGEU LGJHVDQG
LPSRVHGORDGV RQIORRU V7 KHSRV VLELOLW\RIGHF UHDVLQJWKHV HXQF HUWDLQWLHVE\ U HVHDUFKRU V LPLODUDF WLYLWLHVLV  YHU\
OLPLWHG

F 6WDWLVWLFDOXQFHUWDLQWLHVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHV WDWLVWLFDOHYDOXDWLRQRIU HVXOWVRI WHVWVRUREVHUYDWLRQV7KH\


PD\UHVXOWIURP

² ODFNRILGHQWLILFDWLRQDQGVHSDUDWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWVWDWLVWLFDOSRSXODWLRQV

² DOLPLWHGQXPEHURIWHVWUHVXOWVZKLFKFDXVHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHHV WLPDWLRQRIVWDWLVWLFDOSDUDPHWHUV HJPHDQ


DQGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ 

² QHJOHFWLQJV\VWHPDWLFYDULDWLRQVRIWKHREVHUYHGYDULDEOHV HJRIFOLPDWLFYDULDEOHV 

² H[FHVVLYHH[WUDSRODWLRQVRIVWDWLVWLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQ

² QHJOHFWLQJSRVVLEOHFRUUHODWLRQV

² XVLQJVWDWLVWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQVIRUGHVFULELQJXQFHUWDLQWLHVZKLFKDUHSDUWO\RUQRWDWDOO RIDVWDWLVWLFDOFKDUDFWHU
FRPSDUH( 

7KHVWDWLVWLFDOXQFHUWDLQWLHVFDQQRUPDOO\EHGHFUHDVHGE\LQFUHDVLQJWHVWDQGREVHUYDWLRQDOHIIRUWV

('LIIHUHQWZD\VWRREWDLQEDVLFGDWD

7KHQXPHULFDOYDOXHVRIWKHSDUDPHWHUVZKLFKFKDUDFWHUL]HWKHPRGHODQGLWVXQFHUWDLQWLHVFDQEHREWDLQHGLQPDQ\
GLIIHUHQWZD\VVXFKDV

D REVHUYDWLRQRUPHDVXUHPHQWV

E DQDO\VLV

F GHFLVLRQ

G MXGJHPHQW

2IWHQWKHEDVLFGDWDDUHREWDLQHGWKURXJKDFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHVHZD\V

6RPHVLPSOHH[DPSOHVPD\EHJLYHQDVIROORZV

² 7KHF RQFUHWHWHQV LOHV WUHQJWKLV RIWHQGHWHU PLQHGIU RPPHDV XUHPHQW RIWKHF RPSUHVVLYHV WUHQJWK DQG
DQDO\VLV XVLQJVRPHFRQYHUVLRQIXQFWLRQ 

² 7KHPD[LPXPORDGZKLF KVKRXOGEHOLIWHGE\ DF UDQHLVGHWHUPLQHGE\GHFLVLRQ$GGLWLRQDOG\ QDPLFIRUFHVDUH


GHWHUPLQHGLQRWKHUZD\V

² 7UDIILFORDGV RQEU LGJHVDU HRIWHQGHWHU PLQHGE\ REV HUYDWLRQF RPELQHGZLWKD MXGJHPHQW DERXW IXWXUH
GHYHORSPHQW'HFLVLRQPDNLQJPD\DOVREHLPSRUWDQW


‹(6$ (6,62 (

)LJXUH(²,OOXVWUDWLRQRIWKHIXQFWLRQJ ;

7KHEDV LFY DULDEOHV ;PD\ EHWLPHGHSHQGHQW)RU LQV WDQFHH[ WUHPHHQY LURQPHQWORDGV PD\ Y DU\ ZLWK WLPH
6WUXFWXUDOPDWHU LDOPD\ GHWHU LRUDWHZLWKWLPHGXHWRF RUURVLRQRU RWKHU SKHQRPHQD7KHU HVLVWDQFHPD\ DOV R
GHFUHDVHZLWKWLPHGXHWRIDWLJXH,QWKHJHQHU DOFDVHVRPHRIWKHYDULDEOHV ;PXVWEHU HSUHVHQWHGE\VWRFKDVWLF
SURFHVVHV,QSDUWLFXODUWKHWLPHYDULDELOLW\RI;LPSOLHVWKDWPD[LPDRUPLQLPDRIWKHFRPSRQHQWVRI;GRQRWRFFXU
DWWKHV DPHWLPH7 KHWLPHGHSHQGHQF \LPSOLHVWKDWWKHSU REDELOLW\RIIDLOXU HLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDF KRVHQUHIHUHQFH
WLPHW

7KHUHOLDELOLW\ SUREDELOLW\RIVXUYLYDORURIQRIDLOXUH RIDVWUXFWXUHLVGHILQHGDV

3V −3I  (

,IWKHU HOLDELOLW\RIRQHHOHPHQWRU RQHF URVVVHFWLRQRIDQHOHPHQWLV V WXGLHG ZLWK UHJDUG WR D SDUWLFXODU IDLOXUH
PHFKDQLVPDQGDSDU WLFXODUORDGF RPELQDWLRQWKHIXQF WLRQ J ; FDQRIWHQEHGHV FULEHGE\ RQHV LQJOHH[ SUHVVLRQ
GHULYHGIURPWKHPHFKDQLFDOEHKDYLRXU7KHQWKHDQDO\VLVFDQEHGHVFULEHGDVDQHOHPHQWDQDO\VLV

,IPRUHWKDQRQHIDLOXU HPHFKDQLVPIRUDQHOHPHQWRU LIPRU HWKDQRQHHOHPHQWLV VWXGLHGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\WKHQWKH


IXQFWLRQJ ; FDQEHFRQVLGHUHGWREHFRPSRVHGRIVHYHUDOIXQFWLRQVJ ; J ; 7KLVLVLOOXVWUDWHGLQILJXUH(
E\DQH[DPSOHZLWKWZRIXQFWLRQV J ;; DQG J ;; RIWZREDVLFYDULDEOHV;DQG ;)LJXUH(VKRZVWZR
H[WUHPHFDVHV

)RUWKHFDVHLQILJXUH(D WKHIDLOXUHGRPDLQ XQGHVLUDEOHVWDWH LVGHWHUPLQHGE\

J ;; RUJ ;;   (

)RUWKHFDVHLQ)LJXUHE WKHIDLOXUHGRPDLQLVGHWHUPLQHGE\

J ;; DQGJ ;;   (


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

)LJXUH(±)DLOXUHGRPDLQV VKDGHG LQWZRH[WUHPHFDVHV

$QDQDO\VLVZKLFKWDNHVDFFRXQWRIVHYHUDOFRQGLWLRQV JL ; V LPXOWDQHRXVO\LVGHVFULEHGDVDV\VWHPDQDO\VLV


7KHGHILQLWLRQRIWKHV\VWHPIXQFWLRQ J ; L VVWURQJO \GHSHQGHQWRQWKHFKDUDFWHUL VWLFVRIWKHV\VWHPL HL IL WL VD
ZHDNHVWOLQNV\VWHP>ILJXUH(D @RUDUHGXQGDQWV\VWHP>ILJXUH(E @RUVRPHFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHVHWZRFDVHV

(6HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHV

)RUVRPHVHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHVWKHSDVVDJHRIDSDUWLFXODUOLPLWVWDWHIURPWKHGHVLUDEOHVWDWHWRWKHXQGHVLUDEOH
VWDWHF DQEHF RQVLGHUHGWRRF FXUXQGHU IDLU O\GLV WLQFWF RQGLWLRQV7KLV PHDQV WKDWWKHOLPLWV WDWHZLWK UHDVRQDEOH
DSSUR[LPDWLRQF DQEHF RQVLGHUHGDV DPHF KDQLFDOU HDOLW\+RZHY HUIRU PDQ\ V HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWV WDWHVWKH
WUDQVLWLRQIU RPWKHGHV LUDEOHV WDWHWRWKHXQGHV LUDEOHV WDWH RFFXUV XQGHU PRUH GLIIXVH FRQGLWLRQV 7KH WUDQVLWLRQ
LPSOLHVDPRU HRU OHV VV ORZO\GHF UHDVLQJGHJU HHRIV HUYLFHDELOLW\7 KXVLQSU LQFLSOHDGHJU HHRIV HUYLFHDELOLW\
µ ≤µ≤ FDQEHGHILQHGDQGFDQE\LQWURGXFHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIVRPHVHUYLFHDELOLW\SDUDPHWHUλ HJGHIOHFWLRQ
RIDEHDPRUYLEUDWLRQLQWHQVLW\RIDIORRU 7KLVLVLOOXVWUDWHGLQILJXUH(ZKHUHLWLVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHUHDUHWZROLPLW
YDOXHVRI λ λIRU ZKLF KWKHV WUXFWXUHLV IXOO\ V HUYLFHDEOHDQG λIRU ZKLF KWKHV WUXFWXUHLV F RPSOHWHO\
XQVHUYLFHDEOH,QVRPHFDVHVLWPD\EHSRVVLEOHWRH[SUHVVWKHGHJUHHRIVHUYLFHDELOLW\LQHFRQRPLFWHUPV

)LJXUH(±'HJUHHRIVHUYLFHDELOLW\µDVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHVHUYLFHDELOLW\SDUDPHWHUλ


‹(6$ (6,62 (

(6SHFLILHGUHOLDELOLW\OHYHOV
(6DIHW\RISHRSOH

6WUXFWXUDO UHOLDELOLW\ LV LPSRUWDQW ILUVW DQG IRUHPRVW LI SHRSOHPD\ EHN LOOHGRU LQMXU HGDV DU HVXOWRIF ROODSVH$Q
DFFHSWDEOHPD[ LPXPY DOXHIRU WKHIDLOXU HSU REDELOLW\LQWKRV HF DVHV PLJKW EH IRXQG IURP D FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK ULVNV
UHVXOWLQJIURPRWKHUDFWLYLWLHV7DNLQJWKHRY HUDOOLQGLY LGXDOOHWKDODF FLGHQWU DWHRI −SHU \ HDUDV DU HIHUHQFHD
YDOXHRI −VHHPVUHDVRQDEOHWRXVH7KHPD[LPXPDOORZDEOHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRIWKHV WUXFWXUHWKHQGHSHQGV
RQWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLW\RIDSHUVRQEHLQJNLOOHGJLYHQWKHIDLOXUHRIWKHVWUXFWXUH

3 I⎪\HDU 3 G⎪I 〈−\HDU−  (

7KHSU REDELOLW\ 3 G⎪I  LV WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW D SHUVRQSU HVHQWLQWKHEXLOGLQJDWWKHWLPHRIF ROODSVHLV N LOOHG,ID
EXLOGLQJLVVHOGRPYLVLWHGE\KXPDQEHLQJVDIXUWKHUUHGXFWLRQIDFWRUPD\EHLQWURGXFHGLQHTXDWLRQ ( 

5HTXLUHPHQW ( LV SU HVHQWHGDV DU HTXLUHPHQWSHU \ HDU7KLV V KRXOGEHF RQVLGHUHGDV DQDY HUDJHRY HU VRPH
UHIHUHQFHSHULRG,QJHQHU DOLWLV DOORZDEOHWRKDY HDODU JHIDLOXUHUDWHLQV RPHSDUWRIWKHU HIHUHQFHSHULRGDQGD
VPDOOHUYDOXHLQDQRWKHUSDU W7KHU HIHUHQFHSHU LRGQHHGQRWQHF HVVDULO\EHWKHOLIHWLPHRIWKHV WUXFWXUHWR
\HDUVPD\ RIWHQEHU HDVRQDEOH,QJHQHU DORQHPD\ DF FHSWGHY LDWLRQVIU RP WKH \HDUO\ DYHUDJH RQO\ IRU D PXFK
VKRUWHUSHULRGRIWLPH

(TXDWLRQ (  JLYHV D PLQLPXP UHTXLUHPHQW IRUKXPDQV DIHW\IU RPWKHLQGLY LGXDOSRLQWRIY LHZ,QPDQ\ F DVHV
DXWKRULWLHVH[ SOLFLWO\ZDQWWRDY RLGDF FLGHQWVZKHU HODU JHQXPEHU VRISHRSOHPD\ EHN LOOHG,Q WKDW FDVH WKH
DGGLWLRQDOUHTXLUHPHQWLVRIWKHW\SH

3 I⎪\HDU 〈$1 −a  (

ZKHUH 1LVWKHH[SHFWHGQXPEHURIIDWDOLWLHV7KHQXPEHUV $DQGaDUHFRQVWDQWVIRULQVWDQFH $ RU DQG


a 0RGLILF DWLRQVRIWKHQXPHU LFDOYDOXHVDUHSRVVLEOHLQVSHFLDOFDVHV HJLIWKHUHLVDQHPHUJHQF\HYDFXDWLRQ
SODQ 

((FRQRPLFRSWLPL]DWLRQ

)URP DQ HFRQRPLF SRLQW RI YLHZ WKHWDU JHWOHY HORIU HOLDELOLW\V KRXOGGHSHQGRQDEDODQF HEHWZHHQWKH
FRQVHTXHQFHVRIIDLOXU HDQGWKHF RVWVRIV DIHW\PHDVXUHV,QD IRUPDOZD\WKHREMHFWLYHPD\EHWRPLQLPL]HWKH
WRWDOOLIHWLPHFRVWJLYHQE\

&WRW &E&P∑3I&I  (

ZKHUH

&E LVWKHEXLOGLQJFRVW

&P LVWKHH[SHFWHGFRVWRIPDLQWHQDQFHDQGGHPROLWLRQ

&I LVWKHFRVWRIIDLOXUH

3I LVWKHOLIHWLPHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUH

7KHVXPPDWLRQLVRYHUDOO LQGHSHQGHQW IDLOXUHPRGHVDQGORDGF RPELQDWLRQV7KLVIRUPXODLVKLJKO\VLPSOLILHGDQG


PD\QHHGIXUWKHUUHILQHPHQWEHIRUHLWFDQEHXV HGLQSU DFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQV,QDGGLWLRQWRHF RQRPLFFRQVLGHUDWLRQV
DXWKRULWLHVPD\ZDQWWRVSHFLI\VRPHPLQLPXPUHOLDELOLW\OHYHOLIWKHVDIHW\RIKXPDQOLYHVLVLQYROYHG7KLVPD\OHDG
WR D FRQVWUDLQHG RSWLPL]DWLRQ SUREOHPZLWKHTXDWLRQ ( DV REMHF WIXQF WLRQDQGHTXDWLRQ ( DQGRU  ( DV
FRQVWUDLQWV

1RWHWKDWDOWHUQDWLYHO\∑3I&IPD\EHFRQVLGHUHGWREHFRYHUHGE\LQVXUDQFH


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

(([DPSOHVRIFDOLEUDWLRQ

,QJHQHU DOLWLV Y HU\GLIILF XOWWRDSSO\ WKHDERY HSU LQFLSOHVGLU HFWO\LQSU DFWLFH7KHPDLQSRLQWLV WKDWWKHU HLV  D
VXEVWDQWLDOGLIIHU HQFHEHWZHHQWKHQRWDWLRQDOSU REDELOLW\RIIDLOXU HLQWKHGHV LJQSU RFHGXUHDQGWKHDF WXDOIDLOXU H
IUHTXHQF\ ZKLFKWRDF RQVLGHUDEOHH[ WHQWLV GXHWRKXPDQHU URUV )RUWKLV UHDVRQWDUJHWOHY HOVIRUUHOLDELOLW\DUH
RIWHQ EDVHG RQ FDOLEUDWLRQ 8VLQJF DOLEUDWHGU HOLDELOLW\Y DOXHVRQHV KRXOGN HHSLQPLQGWKDWWKH\ DU HU HODWHGWRD
VSHFLILFVHWRIVWUXFWXUDODQGSUREDELOLVWLFPRGHOV8VLQJWKHFDOLEUDWHGYDOXHVLQFRQQHFWLRQZLWKRWKHUPRGHOVFRXOG
OHDGWRXQLQWHQWLRQDOO\KLJKRUORZOHYHOVRIUHOLDELOLW\

7KHQXPHU LFDOY DOXHVRIWKHU HOLDELOLW\DU HRIWHQGHV FULEHGRQWKHEDV LVRIWKH UHOLDELOLW\ LQGH[ bGHILQHGE\
b ±F − 3I 7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQbDQG3ILVJLYHQLQWDEOH(

7DEOH(²5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQbDQG3I

3I − − − − − − −


b       

7DEOH(JLYHVDQH[DPSOHRIF DOLEUDWLRQOLIHWLPHWDU JHWbYDOXHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHF RQVHTXHQFHVRIIDLOXU HDQG


WKHUHODWLYHFRVWRIVDIHGHVLJQ

7DEOH(²7DUJHWbYDOXHV OLIHWLPHH[DPSOHV

5HODWLYHFRVWVRI &RQVHTXHQFHVRIIDLOXUH
VDIHW\PHDVXUHV
VPDOO VRPH PRGHUDWH JUHDW
+LJK  $  %
0RGHUDWH    &
/RZ    

6RPHVXJJHVWLRQVDUH

$ IRUVHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHVXVHb IRUUHYHUVLEOHDQGb IRULUUHYHUVLEOHOLPLWVWDWHV

% IRUIDWLJXHOLPLWVWDWHVXVHb WRb GHSHQGLQJRQWKHSRVVLELOLW\RILQVSHFWLRQ

& IRUXOWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWHVGHVLJQXVHWKHVDIHW\FODVVHVb DQG

7KHVHQXPEHU VKDY HEHHQGHU LYHGZLWKWKHDV VXPSWLRQRIORJQRU PDORU :HLEXOO PRGHOV IRU UHVLVWDQFH *DXVVLDQ
PRGHOVIRU SHU PDQHQWORDGV DQG* XPEHOH[ WUHPHY DOXHPRGHOV IRU WLPH YDU\LQJORDGV DQGZLWKWKHGHV LJQ YDOXH
PHWKRGDFFRUGLQJWR(,WLVLPSRUWDQWWKDWWKHVDPHDVVXPSWLRQV RUDVVXPSWLRQVFORVHWRWKHP DUHXVHGLIWKH
YDOXHVJLYHQLQWDEOH(DUHDSSOLHGIRUSUREDELOLVWLFFDOFXODWLRQV

)LQDOO\LWVKRXOGEHVWUHVVHGWKDWDbYDOXHDQGWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\DUHIRUPDORUQRWLRQDOQXPEHUV
LQWHQGHGSULPDULO\DVDWRROIRU GHYHORSLQJFRQVLVWHQWGHVLJQUXOHVUDWKHUWKDWJLY LQJDGHV FULSWLRQRIWKH VWUXFWXUDO
IDLOXUHIUHTXHQF\

(&DOFXODWLRQRIIDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHV
(7LPHLQYDULDQWSUREOHPV

$F RPSDUDWLYHO\V LPSOHF DVHLV REWDLQHG LI DOO WKH EDVLF YDULDEOHV ;F DQEHF RQVLGHUHGDV WLPH LQYDULDQW7KH
SUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUH3IFDQWKHQEHFDOFXODWHGIURP

PI = Ú fx ( x)Gx  (


)DLOXUHGRPDLQ


‹(6$ (6,62 (

ZKHUH f x ( x ) LVWKHMRLQWSU REDELOLW\GHQVLW\IXQFWLRQRIWKHEDV LFUDQGRPYDULDEOHV ; DQGQRWU DQGRPSU RFHVVHV 


7KHIDLOXUHGRPDLQVDUHLQJHQHU DOJLYHQE\LQWHUVHFWLRQVDQGXQLRQV RIGRPDLQV JLYHQE\ JLM ; ≤+HU H MLV WKH
PHPEHUQXPEHUDQGLLVWKHIDLOXUHPRGHQXPEHU

)DLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHVPD\EHFRPSXWHGE\

² H[DFWDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGV

² QXPHULFDOLQWHJUDWLRQPHWKRGV

² DSSUR[LPDWHDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGV )2506250 PHWKRGVRIPRPHQWV

² VLPXODWLRQPHWKRGV

RUDFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHVHPHWKRGV

,QVRPHFDVHVHTXDWLRQ ( FDQEHLQWHJUDWHGDQDO\WLFDOO\:KHQWKHQXPEHUQRIUDQGRPYDULDEOHVLVVPDOOVD\


Q≤YDULRXVW\SHVRIQXPHULFDOLQWHJUDWLRQPD\EHFRQYHQLHQWO\DSSOLHG

7KHPDLQVWHSVLQWKHDSSUR[LPDWLYH)250PHWKRGDUH

² WUDQVIRUPWKHY DULDEOHV ;LQWRDVSDFHRIV WDQGDUGQRUPDOYDULDEOHV 8DQGDF RUUHVSRQGLQJWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRI


WKHIDLOXUHVXUIDFHJ ;  LQWRJX 8  

² LQWKH)2 50PHWKRGWKHIDLOXU HIXQF WLRQ J 8  LV DSSUR[LPDWHG E\ DWDQJHQWK\ SHUSODQHDWWKHGHV LJQSRLQW
ZKLFKLVWKHSRLQWRQJ 8 FORVHVWWRWKHRULJLQ

² WKHIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\3IDFFRUGLQJWR)250LVWKHQJLYHQE\ 3I F -b ZKHUHbLVWKHGLVWDQFHIURPWKHRULJLQ


WRWKHGHVLJQSRLQW

7KHDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGPD\ EHU HILQHGE\DSSUR[LPDWLQJWKHIDLOXUHVXUIDFH J 8  E\ DTXDGU DWLFV XUIDFHLQWKH


GHVLJQSRLQW 6250 

6LPXODWLRQPHWKRGVFDQEHGLYLGHGLQWR

² ]HURRQHLQGLFDWRUEDVHGPHWKRGVZKLFKDUHQRQDQDO\WLFDODQGRSHUDWHLQWKHRULJLQDOVSDFHRIYDULDEOHV ;

² FRQGLWLRQDOH[SHFWDWLRQPHWKRGVZKLFKDUHVHPLDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGV

=HURRQHLQGLFDWRUPHWKRGVFRPSULVH

² GLUHFW0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQZLWKWKHVDPSOLQJGHQVLW\WDNHQDVWKHRULJLQDOSUREDELOLW\GHQVLW\

² LPSRUWDQFHVDPSOLQJZKHUHWKH0RQWH&DUORWHFKQLTXHLVDSSOLHGZLWKDGHQV LW\ ILFWLWLRXV IXQFWLRQFORVHWRWKH


GHVLJQSRLQW

² DGDSWLYHVDPSOLQJLQZKLFKLPSRUWDQFHVDPSOLQJLVDSSOLHGZLWKVXFFHVVLYHXSGDWLQJRIWKHGHQVLW\IXQFWLRQ

&RQGLWLRQDOH[SHFWDWLRQPHWKRGVFRQVLVWVRIWKHIROORZLQJWHFKQLTXHV

² GLUHFWLRQDOVLPXODWLRQ VXLWDEOHIRUXQLRQVRIHYHQWV 

² D[LVRUWKRJRQDOVLPXODWLRQ VXLWDEOHIRULQWHUVHFWLRQRIHYHQWV 

BBBBBBBBBB
 )250LVDQDEEUHYLDWLRQIRU)LUVW2UGHU5HOLDELOLW\0HWKRG6RPHWLPHV)260)LUVW2UGHU6HFRQG0RPHQW0HWKRGLVXVHG
6250PHDQV6HFRQG2UGHU5HOLDELOLW\0HWKRG


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

(7UDQVIRUPDWLRQRIWLPHYDULDQWLQWRWLPHLQYDULDQWSUREOHPV

7ZRFODVVHVRIWLPHGHSHQGHQWSUREOHPVDUHGLVFXVVHGQDPHO\WKRVHDVVRFLDWHGZLWK

² RYHUORDG ILUVWSDVVDJH IDLOXUH

² IDWLJXHRURWKHUFXPXODWLYHIDLOXUHV

7KH WLPH GHSHQGHQFH LV GXH WR YDULDELOLW\RY HUWLPHRIDF WLRQVDQGRU V WUHQJWK GHJUDGDWLRQ 7 LPHGHSHQGHQW
TXDQWLWLHVLQJHQHUDOQHHGWREHUHSUHVHQWHGE\VWRFKDVWLFSURFHVVHV

,QWKHF DVHRIDILU VWSDVVDJHIDLOXU HDV LQJOHDF WLRQSU RFHVVPD\ EHU HSODFHGE\ D SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQ
UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ RYHU WKH JLYHQSHU LRGIRU ZKLF KWKHIDLOXU HSU REDELOLW\LV WREHF DOFXODWHG7 KHPHDQ
YDOXH PD\ EH WDNHQ WREHWKHH[ SHFWHGPD[ LPXPY DOXHLQWKHF KRVHQU HIHUHQFHSHU LRGDQGZLWKDU DQGRP
XQFHUWDLQW\FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKDWRIWKHH[SHFWHGPD[LPXP

,QWKHFDVHRIIDWLJXHIDLOXUHWKHIDLOXU HIXQF WLRQPD\ EHIRU PXODWHGLQWHU PVRI61 GDWDDQGWKH0LQHU 3DOPJUHQ


UXOH7KHIDLOXUHIXQFWLRQZLOOWKHQEHWLPHLQGHSHQGHQWZKHQLWLVUHIHUUHGWRDJLYHQWLPHSHULRG

(*HQHUDOSUREOHP

,QJHQHUDOFDOFXODWLRQRIWKHIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\LVFRQFHUQHGZLWKGHWHUPLQLQJ

3I 3^∪∩JLM ;W IRUVRPHW∈>7 @`  (

ZKHUH JLM DUH WKH IDLOXUH IXQFWLRQV OLPLWIXQF WLRQV LQWKHV SDFHRIWKHEDV LFY DULDEOHV,QHTXDWLRQ ( 
JL≤ JL≤HWFLQJHQHUDOVSHFLI\DIDLOXUHVHTXHQFHRIDV WUXFWXUHLQDJLY HQIDLOXUHPRGH L )RULQVWDQFHD
VWLIIHQHGSDQHOVXEMHFWHGWRODWHUDODQGD[LDOIRUFHVPD\IDLOLQWZREDV LFPRGHV EXFNOLQJ EHQGLQJ7KHWLPH
GHSHQGHQFHPD\EHUHODWHGWRORDGVRUUHVLVWDQFH HJGXHWRVWUHQJWKGHJUDGDWLRQ 6RPHRIWKHY DULDEOHV ;PD\
EHIXQFWLRQVRIWLPHDQGVSDWLDOFRRUGLQDWHVDQGPD\LQYROYHGLIIHUHQWLDORULQWHJUDOH[SUHVVLRQV

('HVLJQYDOXHPHWKRGV
(*HQHUDO

,WLV DV VXPHGWKDWWKHOLPLWV WDWHF RQVLGHUHGF DQEHV SHFLILHGE\ DF DOFXODWLRQPRGHOLQ WHUPV RI RQH RU VHYHUDO
IXQFWLRQ V  J  RIDV HWRIY DULDEOHV ; ; ;QFRPSULVLQJDFWLRQVPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVHWFVRWKDWDF RQGLWLRQ
IRUWKHVWUXFWXUHQRWWRIDLORIWKHIRUP

J ;;;Q ≥  (

FDQEHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHOLPLWVWDWH7KHGHVLJQUHTXLUHPHQWPD\WKHQEHZULWWHQDV

J [G[G[QG ≥  (

ZKHUH[G[G[QGDUHGHVLJQYDOXHVGHILQHGLQ(

('HVLJQYDOXHVDFFRUGLQJWR)250

7KHGHVLJQYDOXH[LGRIYDULDEOH;LGHSHQGVRQ

² WKHSDUDPHWHUVRIWKHYDULDEOH;L

² WKHDVVXPHGW\SHRIGLVWULEXWLRQ

² WKHWDUJHWVDIHW\LQGH[bIRUWKHOLPLWVWDWHDQGGHVLJQVLWXDWLRQRIFRQFHUQ VHH(


‹(6$ (6,62 (

² D DFWRUa
I LGHVFULELQJWKHV HQVLWLYLW\WRY DULDWLRQVLQ ;LZLWKU HJDUGWRDWWDLQLQJWKHOLPLWV WDWHDF FRUGLQJWRWKH
GHILQLWLRQJLYHQLQD)250FDOFXODWLRQ VHH( 

)RUDQDUELWUDU\GLVWULEXWLRQ) [L WKHGHVLJQYDOXHVLVJLYHQE\

) [LG  F -aLb  (

,I;LLVDVVXPHGWREHQRUPDOO\GLVWULEXWHGWKHQ

[LG mL −aLb9L  (

$ORJQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQJLYHV

[LG xLH[S −aLbνL  (

ZKHUH
mi
xL =
 + 9i

(
n i = OQ  + 9i  )
)RUVPDOOYDOXHVRI9L HJ9L≤ xLªmLDQGnLª9L

(6HQVLWLYLW\IDFWRUVDFFRUGLQJWR)250

,IWKHUDQGRPYDULDEOHVDUHLQGHSHQGHQWWKHIDFWRUVaLLQD)250DQDO\VLVKDYHWKHIROORZLQJSURSHUWLHV

−≤aL≤  (

∑aL    (

7KH YDOXHVRI aLV KRXOGLQSU LQFLSOHEHIRXQGIU RPDQXPEHU RIU HSUHVHQWDWLYH)2 50F DOFXODWLRQV VHH( ,Q
SULQFLSOHWKLVZRXOGU HTXLUHPDQ\ LWHU DWLYHF DOFXODWLRQVZKLF KRIF RXUVHLV Y HU\LQF RQYHQLHQW+RZHY HUEDV HGRQ
H[SHULHQFHDVHWRIVWDQGDUGL]HGaLYDOXHVKDVEHHQGHYHORSHGZKLFKLVSUHVHQWHGLQWDEOH(1RWHWKDW WKHVXP
RIVTXDUHVPD\EHJUHDWHUWKDQDV DU HVXOWRIF RQVHUYDWLVP7ROLPLWWKHHU URULQXV LQJWDEOH(LWLV XV XDOO\
UHTXLUHGWKDWs6s5ZKHUH6LVWKHGRPLQDWLQJORDGDQG5LVWKHGRPLQDWLQJUHVLVWDQFHSDUDPHWHU

7DEOH(²6WDQGDUGL]HGaYDOXHV

;L aL
'RPLQDWLQJUHVLVWDQFHSDUDPHWHU 
2WKHUUHVLVWDQFHSDUDPHWHUV ¥ 
'RPLQDWLQJORDGSDUDPHWHU -
2WKHUORDGSDUDPHWHUV -¥ -
127(²7KH SULQFLSOH RI VWDQGDUGL]HG aYDOXHVZDV DO UHDG\SUHV HQWL Q, 62  DQQH[ % ZKHUH WKH VDPH a
YDOXHVDVLQWDEOH(ZHUHSURSRVHG

,QDSSO\LQJWDEOH(RQHGRHV QRWN QRZLQDGY DQFHZKLFKYDULDEOHVKRXOGEHU HJDUGHGDVGRPLQDWLQJ7KHRQO\


ZD\WRILQGWKLVRXWLVE\PDNLQJDOOYDULDEOHVGRPLQDWLQJRQHDWWKHWLPHDQGV HHZKLFKRQHJRYHUQVWKHGHVLJQ
6RPHWLPHVWKLVFDQEHGRQHDWWKHOHYHORIWKHFRGHZULWHUVRPHWLPHVLWLVWKHWDVNRIWKHGHV LJQHU IRULQVWDQFHE\
FKHFNLQJYDULRXVORDGFDVHV 

(;$03/(

&RQVLGHUWKHHOHPHQWDU\FDVHRIRQHU HVLVWDQFHSDUDPHWHU 5DQGRQHORDGSDU DPHWHU 6ERWKQRU PDOO\GLVWULEXWHG


$VVXPHWKDWWKHWDUJHWUHOLDELOLW\LQGH[b 7KHQIURPHTXDWLRQ ( 


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

5G m5-s5DQG6G m6s6

1RZRQHVKRXOGFKHFNHTXDWLRQ ( ZKLFKLQWKLVFDVHUHGXFHVWR5G!6G

(5HOLDELOLW\YHULILFDWLRQLQFRGHV
(3DUWLDO)DFWRU0HWKRGEDVHGRQGHVLJQYDOXHV

,QGHV LJQF RGHVGHV LJQY DOXHV [GDU HQRWLQWU RGXFHGGLU HFWO\5DQGRPY DULDEOHVDU H ILUVW LQWURGXFHG E\ PHDQV RI
UHSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXHV[N,QDGGLWLRQWKHUHLVDVHWRISDUWLDOVDIHW\IDFWRUVDQGORDGFRPELQDWLRQIDFWRUV VHHFODXVH
 ,QPRVWFDVHVWKHEDVLFUHTXLUHPHQWFDQEHIRUPXODWHGDV

J [G  5G−6G≥  (

ZLWK

6G 6 )GDGqG  (

5G 5 IGDGqG  (

+HUH6LVWKHORDGHIIHFWDQG5LVWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJUHVLVWDQFHZLWK

)G γI)NRU)G γIy)N GHVLJQYDOXHRIDORDGSDUDPHWHU

IG INγP GHVLJQYDOXHRIDPDWHULDOSURSHUW\

DG DQRUP±ΔD GHVLJQYDOXHRIJHRPHWULFDOSURSHUW\

qGLVWKHGHVLJQYDOXHRIDPRGHOIDFWRU

7KHLQGH[NGHQRWHVFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH

7KHGHVLJQYDOXHqQRUPDOO\HQWHUVWKHHTXDWLRQV E\PHDQVRISDU WLDOIDFWRUVγ6GDQG γ5GIRUWKHWRWDOPRGHO VXFK


WKDW

6G γ6G6 γI)NγIy)NDQRP±ΔD  (


 Ê fN ˆ
RG = RÁ  aQRP ± Δa ˜ . . . (
g 5G Ë g P ¯

3DUWLDO VDIHW\ IDFWRUV PD\ EHGHU LYHGE\ ILU VWILQGLQJWKHGHV LJQY DOXHVDF FRUGLQJWR(WR(DQGE\ WKH
DSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHHTXDWLRQV

γI )G)NγP INIG  (

7KHSU RFHGXUHGHV FULEHGDERY HLV F XPEHUVRPHIU RPD SUDFWLFDO SRLQW RI YLHZ 7KHUHIRUH WKH IROORZLQJ
VLPSOLILFDWLRQVDUHRIWHQPDGH

RQWKHORDGLQJVLGH 6G 6 γ))NDQRP  (

RQWKHUHVLVWDQFHVLGH Ê f ˆ
RG = RÁ N  aQRP ˜ RU
Ëg 0 ¯

  (
RG = R( fN  aQRP )
g5

,QWKLVFDVHγ)DQG γ0 RUγ5 VKRXOGEHF DOLEUDWHGLQV XFKDZD\ WKDWWKH\ UHVXOWLQWKHV DPHYDOXHVDVWKHRU LJLQDO
HTXDWLRQV


‹(6$ (6,62 (

(3DUWLDOIDFWRUVEDVHGRQFDOLEUDWLRQ

&DOLEUDWLRQRISDUWLDOIDFWRUVLVGHVFULEHGLQOLWHUDWXUHLQVHYHUDOERRNVDQGSDSHUV  

,QWKHSU RFHGXUHRXWOLQHGLQ(WKH3DU WLDO)DF WRUPHWKRGLV LQWU RGXFHGDV DQHODERU DWLRQRIWKH'HV LJQ9DOXH


PHWKRG$QDOWHU QDWLYHPHWKRGLV WRV WDUWZLWKV RPHDU ELWUDU\SDU WLDO IDFWRU IRUPDW DQG WR UHTXLUH WKDW WKH SDUWLDO
IDFWRUV DUH FKRVHQLQV XFKDZ D\WKDWWKHU HOLDELOLW\RIWKHU HVXOWLQJV WUXFWXUHVLV DV F ORVHDV SRV VLEOHWRV RPH
VHOHFWHGWDUJHWYDOXH

$VVXPHWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUIRUPDWFDQEHZULWWHQDV

Ê I I ˆ
J Á N  N   g I)N g I)N ˜ ≥  . . . (
Ë g P g P ¯

ZKHUH

INL LVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWUHQJWKRIPDWHULDOL

γPL LVWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUIRUPDWHULDOL

)NM LVWKHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXHIRUORDGM

γIM LVWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUIRUORDGM

1RZGHILQHDU HSUHVHQWDWLYHV HWRI QWHV WHOHPHQWV ZKLF KV KRXOGEHF KRVHQWRF RYHUDGHTXDWHO\ WKHV FRSHRI
DSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHFRGHLQWHUPVRI

² W\SHVRIDFWLRQV

² W\SHVRIVWUXFWXUDOGLPHQVLRQV

² W\SHVRIPDWHULDOV

² W\SHVRIOLPLWVWDWHV

)RUDJLY HQV HWRISDU WLDOIDF WRUV γP γP γI γI WKHV HWRIU HSUHVHQWDWLYHV WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV F DQEH
GHVLJQHG(DFKHOHPHQWZLOOWKHQSRVVHVVDOHYHORIU HOLDELOLW\ZKLFKZLOOGHY LDWHPRUHRUOHVVIURPWKHWDU JHWYDOXH
8VLQJWKHUHOLDELOLW\LQGH[bWKHDJJUHJDWHGHYLDWLRQ'FDQEHH[SUHVVHGDV

Q
 [ b N (g PL  g IM ) - b W ]

'= . . . (
N =
bW LVWKHWDUJHWYDOXHRIb

bN bIRUHOHPHQWNDVDUHVXOWRIDGHVLJQXVLQJ γPγPγIγI

&OHDUO\WKHVHWRISDU WLDOIDFWRUVZKLFKPLQLPL]HVWKLVDJJUHJDWHGGHYLDWLRQ 'FDQEHF RQVLGHUHGDVWKHEHV WVHWRI


IDFWRUV,IQRWDOOHOHPHQWVDUHFRQVLGHUHGRIHTXDOLPSRUWDQFHZHLJKWIDFWRUVPD\EHLQWURGXFHG

,QVWHDGRIbRQHPD\DOVRXVHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHLWVHOI,WPD\EHUHDOLVWLFWRSHQDOL]HYDOXHVVPDOOHUWKDQWKH
WDUJHWSUREDELOLW\WRDOHVVHUGHJUHHWKDQYDOXHVH[FHHGLQJWKHWDU JHW2QHPD\DOVRWU\WRRSWLPL] HWKHHF RQRPLF
FULWHULDHTXDWLRQ ( IRUDZLGHVHWRIUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWV

BBBBBBBBBB
 6HHIRUH[DPSOH7KRIW&KULVWHQVHQDQG%DNHU6WUXFWXUDO5HOLDELOLW\7KHRU\DQG,WV$SSOLFDWLRQV


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

$QQH[)
LQIRUPDWLYH

&RPELQDWLRQRIDFWLRQVDQGHVWLPDWLRQRIDFWLRQYDOXHV

),QWURGXFWLRQ
7KHSUREOHPRIHVWLPDWLRQLQDJHQHUDOZD\RIDFWLRQYDOXHVWREHXVHGLQGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIFRPELQDWLRQVRIDFWLRQV
LVYHU\FRPSOLFDWHG7KHSU RSHUWLHVRIY DULRXVLQGLYLGXDODFWLRQVDUHJHQHUDOO\YHU\GLIIHUHQWFRQFHUQLQJERWKPDLQ
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG GHWDLOV 7KHUHIRUHL IPDQ\NL QGVRIDFWL RQVDUHIL WWHGL QWRDFRPPRQV\VWHP HJWKL V
,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUG WKHGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHDFWLRQSDUDPHWHUVDQGWKHHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHLUYDOXHVKDYHWREHHLWKHU
YHU\V FKHPDWLFRU Y HU\F RPSOLFDWHG,QWKLV ,QWHU QDWLRQDO6WDQGDU GLQSDU WLFXODULQ WKLV DQQH[ D IDLUO\ VLPSOH DQG
VFKHPDWLFGHVFULSWLRQKDVEHHQFKRVHQ

:LWKUHIHUHQFHWRWKHSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDWDQGWKHGHILQLWLRQVLQWKLVDQQH[WUHDWVWKHIROORZLQJ
² HVWLPDWLRQRIVWDWLVWLFDOSURSHUWLHVDQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVRIYDULDEOHDFWLRQV
² HVWLPDWLRQRIFRPELQDWLRQYDOXHVLQWHQGHGIRUFRPELQDWLRQRIDFWLRQLQWKHXOWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWHV
² HVWLPDWLRQRIIU HTXHQWDQGTXDV LSHUPDQHQWY DOXHVLQWHQGHGPDLQO\ IRU F RPELQDWLRQRIDF WLRQVLQWKH
VHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHVDQGLQDFFLGHQWDOFRPELQDWLRQV

7KHIUHTXHQWDQGWKHTXDVLSHUPDQHQWYDOXHVDU HGHILQHGLQV XFKDZD\ WKDWPDN HVWKHPV XLWDEOHDV GRPLQDWLQJ


DFWLRQYDOXHVLQPDQ\FRPELQDWLRQVLQWKHVHUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHV+RZHYHULQRUGHUQRWWRKDYHWRRPDQ\NLQGVRI
DFWLRQY DOXHVWKH\ PD\ DOV REHXV HGDV QRQ GRPLQDWLQJDF WLRQY DOXHVLQRWKHU N LQGVRIF RPELQDWLRQV 7KXV IRU
H[DPSOHLQDQQH[*TXDVLSHUPDQHQWYDOXHVDUHXVHGDVQRQGRPLQDWLQJDFWLRQYDOXHVLQIUHTXHQWFRPELQDWLRQV

1RUPDOO\ WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH DFWLRQY DOXHVIROORZV WKHV HTXHQFH ZLWKGHF UHDVLQJY DOXHV F KDUDFWHULVWLF±
FRPELQDWLRQ±IUHTXHQW±TXDVLSHUPDQHQW

7KHWUHDWPHQWRIFRPELQDWLRQYDOXHVLQ)DOVRJLYHVSURFHGXUHVIRUFRPELQDWLRQRIDFWLRQVZKLFKFDQEHXVHGLQ
WKHIUDPHZRUNRISUREDELOLVWLFGHVLJQPHWKRGV

1RLQIRU PDWLRQZLOOEHJLY HQDERXWSK\ VLFDOLQWHU DFWLRQHIIHF WV HJIRU  ZLQG DQG VQRZ HDUWKTXDNH DQG ILUH ZLQG
DQGURDGWUDIILFHWF 

)(VWLPDWLRQRIVWDWLVWLFDOSURSHUWLHVDQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVIRUYDULDEOHDFWLRQV
)*HQHUDOFRQGLWLRQV

7KHPHWKRGGHVFULEHGKHUHFDQEHXVHGIRUWKHHV WLPDWLRQRIF KDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVRQWKHEDV LVRIREV HUYDWLRQV,Q


RWKHUFDVHVWKHHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHYDOXHVKDVWREHEDV HGRQVXEMHFWLYHMXGJHPHQW7KHPHWKRGLV HYDOXDWHGIRUWKH
VLPSOHF DVHZKHQWKHDF WLRQ RUWKHHY HQWF DXVLQJWKHDF WLRQ F DQ EH GHVFULEHG E\ D RQHGLPHQVLRQDO HUJRGLF
VWRFKDVWLFSURFHVV)RUVWRFKDVWLFSURFHVVHVLQPRU HWKDQRQHGLPHQV LRQWKHV DPHEDVLFSULQFLSOHVFDQRIWHQEH
XVHG

:LWKU HIHUHQFHWRGHILQLWLRQRIWKHF KDUDFWHULVWLFY DOXHRIDY DULDEOH DFWLRQ LV JLYHQ DV IROORZV 7KH
FKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHLVFKRVHQVRWKDWLWFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGWRKDYHDVSHFLILHGSUREDELOLW\RIEHLQJH[FHHGHGWRZDUGV
XQIDYRXUDEOHYDOXHVGXULQJDFKRVHQUHIHUHQFHSHULRG

7KXVWZRSDUDPHWHUVKDYHWREHFKRVHQWRGHILQHWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH

² WKHUHIHUHQFHSHULRGWU

² WKHVSHFLILHGSUREDELOLW\ −S LHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIQRWEHLQJH[FHHGHGLVS


‹(6$ (6,62 (

127(²$SURFHVVLQWLPHLVVWDWLRQDU\LIIRUDOOYDOXHVRI WLDQGIRUDOOYDOXHVRItWKHVWRFKDVWLFYDULDEOH ; WLt KDVWKH


VDPHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQDV ; WL ,WLVDVVXPHGWKDW WLDQG WLt DUHZLWKLQWKHUHIHUHQFHSHULRG$SURFHVVLVHUJRGLF
LIDYHUDJLQJRYHUWKHYDULDEOH;DWDJLYHQWLPHDQGDYHUDJLQJRYHUWLPHWJLYHWKHVDPHUHVXOW

)0HWKRG

7KHDFWLRQREVHUYDWLRQVDUHDVVXPHGWRFRYHUDWRWDOREVHUYDWLRQSHULRGZKLFKFDQEHGLY LGHGLQWRDQXPEHU  URI


HTXDOWLPHLQWHUYDOVtFDOOHGXQLWREVHUYDWLRQSHULRGV7KHPD[LPXPYDOXH4RIWKHDFWLRQIRUHDFKXQLWREVHUYDWLRQ
SHULRGLVGHWHUPLQHG6HHILJXUH)

)URPWKH UREV HUYDWLRQVWKHSU REDELOLW\GLV WULEXWLRQIXQF WLRQ )4 4 FDQEHGHWHU PLQHG HJXV LQJRU GHUV WDWLVWLFV 
2WKHUPHWKRGV  HJGHWHU PLQDWLRQGLU HFWO\IU RPWKHV WRFKDVWLFSU RFHVV  DUH DYDLODEOH DQG DUH LQ VRPH FDVHV
SUHIHUDEOH

)LJXUH)²$FWLRQSURFHVV )LJXUH)²3UREDELOLW\
GHQVLW\IXQFWLRQI4 4

,QPDQ\FDVHVLWLV XVHIXOWRILWV RPHZHOONQRZQDQDO\WLFSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQWRWKHREVHUYHGYDOXHVRI


)4 4  VHHILJXUH) ,IWKLVLVGRQHLWLV LPSRUWDQWWRU HFRJQL]HWKDWWKLV GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVKRXOGEHU HJDUGHG
DVDQDSSUR[LPDWLRQZKLFKVWULFWO\VSHDNLQJLVYDOLGRQO\ZLWKLQWKHOLPLWVRIWKHREVHUYDWLRQYDOXHV

7KHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH4NFDQEHREWDLQHGIURPWKHHTXDWLRQ

)4 4N  SτWU  )

)5HWXUQSHULRG

,QV RPHF DVHVDF RQYHQLHQWZD\ WRF KDUDFWHUL]H 4NLV WRXV HLWV U HWXUQSHU LRG 7GHILQHGDV WKHPHDQGXU DWLRQ
EHWZHHQFRQVHFXWLYHRFFXUUHQFHVRI4NEHLQJH[FHHGHG7FDQEHFDOFXODWHGIURPWKHH[SUHVVLRQ

t t  tU
T= = tU . . . )
 - F4 (QN )  - pt  tU

,I)4 4N LVFORVHWRXQLW\WKHH[SUHVVLRQIRU7LVDOPRVWLQGHSHQGHQWRItDQGFDQEHDSSUR[LPDWHGE\


T= tU . . . )
OQ(  p)

7KHUHWXUQSHULRGLVLQPDQ\FDVHVWKHPRVWLOOXVWUDWLYHSDUDPHWHUWRGHILQHWKHF KDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH5HWXUQSHULRGV
RI  WR  \HDUV DUH UHDVRQDEOHIRU F KDUDFWHULVWLFY DOXHVRIDF WLRQVXV HGLQWKHGHV LJQRIRU GLQDU\SHU PDQHQW
EXLOGLQJV


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

)8QFHUWDLQWLHV

,Q PRVW FDVHV WKHF KDUDFWHULVWLFY DOXHLV F KRVHQLQV XFKDZD\ WKDWHY HQWVGXU LQJZKLF KWKHREV HUYHGY DOXHV
H[FHHGWKHF KDUDFWHULVWLFY DOXHDU HIDLU O\U DUH7KHU HIRUHWKHV WDWLVWLFDOXQF HUWDLQWLHVLQWKHHV WLPDWLRQRIWKH
FKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHPD\EHFRQVLGHUDEOH

,IWKHUHIHUHQFHSHULRGWULVLQFUHDVHGRUWKHDFFHSWDEOHSUREDELOLW\RIWKHYDOXHEHLQJH[FHHGHG−SLVGHFUHDVHG
WKHXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHZLOOLQFUHDVHLIWKHRWKHUFRQGLWLRQVDUHQRWFKDQJHG

,I WUDQG S DUH JLYHQ E\ WKH GHILQLWLRQRIWKHF KDUDFWHULVWLFY DOXHWKHPDLQZD\ WRGHF UHDVHWKHV WDWLVWLFDO
XQFHUWDLQWLHVLV WRLQF UHDVH WKH QXPEHU URIREV HUYDWLRQV7KLV F DQEHGRQHHLWKHU E\ LQF UHDVLQJWKHWRWDO
REVHUYDWLRQSHULRGRUE\GHFUHDVLQJWKHXQLWREV HUYDWLRQSHULRG FRPSDUHILJXUH) +RZHYHULQPDQ\FDVHVGDWD
IURPREVHUYDWLRQVDOUHDG\PDGHKDYHWREHXVHGDQGLWLVQRWSRVVLEOHWRLQFUHDVHWKHWRWDOREVHUYDWLRQSHULRG7KH
XQLWREV HUYDWLRQSHU LRG t FDQQRW EHGHF UHDVHGLQDQDU ELWUDU\ZD\ ,WKDV WREHV XIILFLHQWO\ORQJV RWKDWWKH
PD[LPXP YDOXHV LQ WZRV XFFHVVLYHXQLWREV HUYDWLRQSHU LRGVF DQEHDSSU R[LPDWHO\F RQVLGHUHGDV V WDWLVWLFDOO\
LQGHSHQGHQW,IWKLVLVQRWWKHFDVHWKHQDGGLWLRQDOXQFHUWDLQWLHVZLOODULVH

)RUDF WLRQVRIQDWXU DORU LJLQ VXFKDV ZLQGV QRZWHPSHU DWXUHHWF  WKHWRWDOREV HUYDWLRQ SHULRG IRU D VLQJOH
REVHUYDWLRQSODFHLVQRUPDOO\QRWORQJHUWKDQDERXW\ HDUV7KXVLQVXFKFDVHVZKHQWKHXQLWREVHUYDWLRQSHULRG
LVFKRVHQHTXDOWRRQH\ HDUWKHQXPEHU RIY DOXHVREWDLQHGLV IDLUO\VPDOOUa,IWKHU HIHUHQFHSHULRGLVFKRVHQ
DV\ HDUVRUPRUHWKHDY DLODEOHGDWDPD\ QRWSHU PLWDQ\WKLQJPRUHWKDQDQ HVWLPDWLRQRIWKHPHDQYDOXHRIWKH
SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQIRU WKHPD[ LPXPY DOXHZLWKLQ\ HDUV7 KHW\ SHRIGLV WULEXWLRQDQGWKHV WDQGDUG
GHYLDWLRQKDY HWREHGHWHU PLQHGXV LQJJRRGMXGJHPHQW7KLV PD\ LQF OXGHDF RPSDULVRQ ZLWK VLPLODU REVHUYDWLRQV
PDGHDWGLIIHUHQWSODFHV2IFRXUVHLIWKHUHIHUHQFHSHULRGFKRVHQLVFRQVLGHUDEO\VKRUWHU HJRQH\HDU WKHUHVXOWV
ZLOOQRUPDOO\EHPRUHDFFXUDWH+RZHYHUIRUDEXLOGLQJZLWKDGHV LJQZRUNLQJOLIHRIDERXW\ HDUVWKLVGRHVQRW
HQKDQFHWKHDFFXUDF\RIWKHSUHGLFWLRQV

)(VWLPDWLRQRIFRPELQDWLRQYDOXHV
)*HQHUDO

7KHEDVLFSULQFLSOHIRUFRPELQDWLRQVRIDFWLRQVDSSOLHGLQLPSOLHVWKDW

² RQHDFWLRQLVFKRVHQDVWKHGRPLQDWLQJDFWLRQDQGLVLQWURGXFHGE\PHDQVRILWVFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXH 4N

² DVHFRQGDFWLRQLVLQWURGXFHGZLWKD UHGXFHGFRPELQDWLRQYDOXHy4Ny≤7KHF RPELQDWLRQIDF WRU y


GHSHQGVRQWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIERWKWKHGRPLQDWLQJDQGWKHQRQGRPLQDWLQJDFWLRQ

² DWKLU GDF WLRQLV LQWU RGXFHGZLWKDIXU WKHUU HGXFHGF RPELQDWLRQY DOXH y4N y≤y7KHY DOXHRI y
GHSHQGVRQWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDOOWKUHHDFWLRQV7KLVSURFHVVLVUHSHDWHGLIQHFHVVDU\

7KXVDVHTXHQFHRIyYDOXHVLVLQWURGXFHGy y≥y≥y

7KLVSU LQFLSOHPD\ EHMXV WLILHGIU RPDWKHRU HWLFDOSRLQWRIY LHZ EXW LW PDNHV WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI DFWLRQV IDLUO\
FRPSOLFDWHG,WPD\UHVXOWLQVHYHUDOGLIIHUHQWFRPELQDWLRQYDOXHVIRUDSDUWLFXODUDFWLRQ)XUWKHUPRUHWKHQXPEHURI
SRVVLEOHFRPELQDWLRQVLQFUHDVHVYHU\UDSLGO\ZLWKWKHQXPEHURIGLIIHUHQWDFWLRQYDOXHV

&RPELQDWLRQVDFFRUGLQJWRZLWKUHSUHVHQWDWLYHDFWLRQYDOXHVDFFRUGLQJWRLPSO\ WKDWIRU DSDU WLFXODUDFWLRQ


WKHUHLVRQO\RQHFRPELQDWLRQYDOXHy4NZKLFKLVXVHGLQDOOFDVHVZKHQWKHDFWLRQLVQRQGRPLQDWLQJ7KLVVLQJOH
FRPELQDWLRQYDOXHy4NVKRXOGEHFKRVHQLQVXFKDZD\WKDWUHVXOWLVFRQVHUYDWLYH

)&RPELQDWLRQRIDFWLRQVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH)HUU\%RUJHV&DVWDQKHWDPRGHO

)*HQHUDO

&RQVLGHUWKHFDVHWKDWWZRDFWLRQV4 W DQG4 W DUHWREHFRPELQHG$VVXPHWKDWWKHVHDFWLRQVFDQEHGHVFULEHG


E\VTXDUHZDYHSURFHVVHVDFFRUGLQJWRILJXUH)7KHIROORZLQJDVVXPSWLRQVDUHPDGHDERXWWKHSURFHVVHV


‹(6$ (6,62 (

² 4 W DQG4 W DUHVWDWLRQDU\HUJRGLFSURFHVVHV

² DOOLQWHUYDOVtDUHHTXDO

² DOOLQWHUYDOVtDUHHTXDO

² t≥t

² UDQGUUDUHLQWHJHUVZKHUHU WUtDQGU WUt

² 4DQG4DUHFRQVWDQWGXULQJHDFKLQWHUYDOtDQGtUHVSHFWLYHO\

² WKHYDOXHVRI4IRUWKHGLIIHUHQWLQWHUYDOVDUHPXWXDOO\LQGHSHQGHQWWKHVDPHKROGVIRU4

² 4DQG4DUHLQGHSHQGHQW

)LJXUH)±6TXDUHZDYHSURFHVVHVIRU4 W DQG4 W

)RUHDFKRIWKHDFWLRQVWKUHHNLQGVRIYDULDEOHVDUHGHILQHG

 7KHDUELWUDU\SRLQWLQWLPHYDULDEOH4 ZLWKWKHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQ)4 4

 7KHPD[LPXPYDOXH4PD[GXULQJWKHUHIHUHQFHWLPHZLWKWKHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQ

)4PD[ 4  >)4 4 @U  )

 7KHPD[LPXPYDOXH4F WKHLQGH[FLQGLFDWHVFRPELQDWLRQ GXULQJWKHLQWHUYDOt)RU4WKLVYDOXH4FLVHTXDO


WRWKHPD[LPXPYDOXHRFFXUULQJGXULQJWKHLQWHUYDOtZLWKWKHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQ

)4F 4  >)4 4 @UU  )

)RU4WKHFRPELQDWLRQYDOXHLVHTXDOWRWKHSRLQWLQWLPHYDOXHLH
4F 4  )
127(²,I)4 4 DQG)4PD[ 4 DUHHVWLPDWHGGLUHFWO\UKDVWREHFKRVHQVRWKDWHTXDWLRQ ) LVDSSUR[LPDWHO\VDWLVILHG


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

7KHWKUHHGLIIHUHQWSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVIRU4DUHVKRZQLQILJXUH)

)LJXUH)²3UREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVIRU4

$VVXPHDOLQHDUUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHDFWLRQHIIHFW6DQGWKHDFWLRQV

6 D4D4  )

7KHPD[LPXPDFWLRQHIIHFW6PD[IURP4DQG4GXULQJWKHUHIHUHQFHSHULRGWUFDQWKHQEHZULWWHQDV

6PD[ PD[6^4F4F`  )

7KHPD[LPXPVKRXOGEHWDNHQRYHUDOOLQWHUYDOVtZLWKLQWKHUHIHUHQFHSHULRG

$VDQDSSU R[LPDWLRQWKHU HVXOWLQJDF WLRQHIIHF WVF RXOGEHF DOFXODWHGDV WKHPD[ LPXPRIWKHIROORZLQJWZR


FRPELQDWLRQV 7XUNVWUD¶VUXOH 

6^4PD[4F` LI4LVFRQVLGHUHGDVWKHGRPLQDWLQJDFWLRQ

6^4PD[4F` LI4LVFRQVLGHUHGDVWKHGRPLQDWLQJDFWLRQ

:ULWWHQDVDIRUPXOD

6PD[ ^6 4PD[4F 6 4F4PD[ `  )

,IWKHV WUXFWXUHLV GHV LJQHGDF FRUGLQJWRDSU REDELOLVWLFPHWKRGWKHQWKHDF WLRQY DOXHV LQ HTXDWLRQ )  RU )
VKRXOGEHWUHDWHGDVUDQGRPYDULDEOHVZLWKSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVDVJLYHQE\ILJXUH)

,IWKHVWUXFWXUHLVGHVLJQHGDFFRUGLQJWRDSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDWWKHQWKHJHQHUDOIRUPDWIRUWKHGHVLJQYDOXHRI 6PD[
FDQEHZULWWHQDV

6PD[G ^6 4PD[G4FG 6 4FG4PD[G `  )

ZLWK

4PD[G γ44N

4FG γ4Y4N

DQGVLPLODUO\IRU4

7KHY DOXHVRIWKHF RPELQDWLRQY DOXHV Y4NF DQEHGHU LYHGLQY DULRXVZD\ VDV ZLOOEHH[ SODLQHGLQWKHQH[ W
VXEFODXVHV


‹(6$ (6,62 (

)&RPELQDWLRQYDOXHVDFFRUGLQJWR7XUNVWD¶V5XOH

$FODVVLFDODSSURDFKIRUGHULYLQJWKHF RPELQDWLRQIDFWRUVYLQDSDUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDWLVEDVHGRQ7XU NVWUD¶VUXOH


HTXDWLRQ ) 7KLV PHDQV WKDW 4FG LQGH[RU LV RPLWWHGIRU F RQYHQLHQFH LV V HOHFWHGDV DIU DFWLOHRIWKH 4F
GLVWULEXWLRQ VHHILJXUH) :LWKUHIHUHQFHWR(WKHIUDFWLOHLVFKRVHQDVF −a6b 

)4F 4FG  F −a6b  )

ZKHUHa6 −LVDVHQVLWLYLW\IDFWRUIRUWKHDFWLRQ4

7KLVOHDGVWRWKHIROORZLQJIRUPDOH[SUHVVLRQIRUY

Y =
QFG
=
[ =
-
] [
F4-F F ( ¥  b ) F4PD[ F ( ¥  b )
r
] . . . )
QPD[G FQ-PD[

x
F ( b )[ ] F4-PD[

[
F ( b ) ]
)RUWKH*XPEHOGLVWULEXWLRQWKLVHTXDWLRQEHFRPHV

Y =
{ [ ( )] }
 - V  + OQ -OQ F (-a 6 b ) + OQr
. . . )
 - V { + OQ[ -OQ(F (-a b ))]}
6

ZKHUH9LVWKHFRHIILFLHQWRIYDULDWLRQRIWKHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQ)4PD[ 4 

127(²$QXPHULFDOH[DPSOHLVJLYHQDIWHU)

)&RPELQDWLRQYDOXHVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH'HVLJQ9DOXH0HWKRG

$FFRUGLQJWRWKH'HV LJQ9DOXH0HWKRG VHHDQQH[ ( WKHGHV LJQORDG HIIHFW 6PD[GV KRXOGKDY HSU REDELOLW\RI
H[FHHGLQJWKHOLPLWYDOXHIRUWKHUHIHUHQFHSHULRGWUHTXDOWR

3^6PD[!6PD[G` F a6b  )

ZLWKa6 -

*LYHQWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHORDGV4DQG4RQHPD\UHTXLUHHTXLYDOHQWO\WKDWWKHSUREDELOLW\RIH[FHHGLQJWKH
OLPLWYDOXHRIWKHGHVLJQORDGHIIHFWGXULQJDQLQWHUYDOSHULRGtVKRXOGEHHTXDOWR

3^6F!6FG` F a6b U  )

7KHFRUUHVSRQGLQJUHOLDELOLW\LQGH[HTXDOV

bF -F −^F a6b U`  )

:LWKLQHDFKLQWHUYDOWKHORDGV DUHFRQVWDQWDQGWKHU HVXOWVRIDQQH[ (F DQEHDSSOLHG7KLV PHDQVWKDWWKH GHVLJQ


YDOXHV4PD[G γ44NDQG4FG γ4Y4NPD\EHGHULYHGIURP

)4F^γ44N` F bF  )

)4F^γ4Y4N` F bF  )

6RYIROORZVIURP

Y =
{
F4-F F ( b F ) } . . . )
F4-F {F (b F )}
,WLVDOVRSRVVLEOHWRH[SUHVVYRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQRI4PD[


,(662 ( ‹(6$

Y =
F4-PD[

{
F (b F )
U
}
{ }
. . . )
F (b F )
U
F4-PD[


,QVRPHDSSOLFDWLRQVUPD\EHYDU\ODUJHVRLWLVXVHIXOWRGHYHORSHTXDWLRQ ) IXUWKHU

Y =
F4-PD[

{ [
H[S - rF (- b F ) ]} . . . )
F4-PD[

[F (b )]
ZKHUHbFLVJLYHQE\HTXDWLRQ ) 

)&RPELQDWLRQYDOXHVIRULQWHUPLWWHQWORDGV

,WLVQRWQHFHVVDU\IRUWKHORDGWREHQRQ]HURGXULQJWKHWRWDOUHIHUHQFHSHULRG7KHPRGHOVGHVFULEHGLQ)DQG
) DUH FDSDEOH RI DFFRXQWLQJ IRU ORDGVZKLF KKDY HDILQLWHSU REDELOLW\RIEHLQJ] HURGXU LQJWKHLQWHU YDO t
LQWHUPLWWHQWORDGV ,QWKDWF DVHKRZHYHUWKLVSUREDELOLW\RIKDY LQJ]HURORDGV KRXOGEHLQFOXGHGLQWKHGLVWULEXWLRQ
IXQFWLRQ2QHVKRXOGEHFDUHIXOQRWWRWDNHWKHFRQGLWLRQDOGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQIRUWKHORDGJLYHQWKDWWKHORDGLVQRW
]HUR

(;$03/(

$VDQH[ DPSOHFRQVLGHUWKHF DVHZKHUHb  a6 DQG 9 )RU D* XPEHOGLVWULEXWLRQWKH YYDOXHV
JLYHQLQWDEOH)DUHIRXQG

7DEOH)

U 'HVLJQYDOXHPHWKRG 7XUNVWUDUXOH
HTXDWLRQ ) HTXDWLRQ ) RU )
 Y  Y 
 Y  Y 
 Y  Y 

,WDSSHDUVWKDWLQWKLV H[DPSOH7XUNVWUD¶VUXOHDVSURSRVHGKHUHLVDVOLJKWO\XQFRQVHUYDWLYHDSSUR[LPDWLRQRIWKH
'HVLJQ9DOXH0HWKRG

)(VWLPDWLRQRIIUHTXHQWYDOXHV
)'XUDWLRQRIWLPHDQDFWLRQYDOXHLVH[FHHGHG

7KHILUVWGHILQLWLRQRIIUHTXHQWYDOXHVJLYHQLQLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHIDLOXUHFRQGLWLRQVSHFLILHGDFFRUGLQJWRFDVH
E RI,WLPSOLHV WKDWLWLV SRVVLEOHWRHV WLPDWHWKH IUHTXHQWYDOXHLQWKHIROORZLQJZD\7KHSRLQWLQWLPHYDOXHV
RIDQDF WLRQDUHGHVFULEHGDVDIXQF WLRQRIWLPHE\ DSU RFHVV>HJDF FRUGLQJWRILJXU H)D @$JLY HQOHYHO 4RI
WKHDFWLRQYDOXHVLVH[FHHGHGGXULQJDQXPEHURISHULRGVRIWLPHZLWKOHQJWKVWWWLHGXULQJDWRWDOSHULRGRI
WLPH ∑WLZLWKLQWKHF KRVHQU HIHUHQFHWLPH WU7KHIU HTXHQWY DOXH 4  Y4NLV WKXV H[ FHHGHGGXU LQJDV SHFLILHG
UHODWLYHGXUDWLRQ

h=
 tL . . . )
tU


‹(6$ (6,62 (

)LJXUH)²([FHHGLQJWKHIUHTXHQWYDOXH4

7KHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQ)4 4 RIWKHSRLQWLQWLPHDFWLRQYDOXHV4 UHIHUUHGWRWKRVHSHULRGVZKHQ4LV


QRWHTXDOWR]HURLVVKRZQLQILJXUH)E 7KHSUREDELOLW\S RIH[FHHGLQJWKHDFWLRQYDOXH4LVHTXDOWR

S  −)4 4  )

)RUDQHUJRGLFSURFHVVWKHYDOXHRIhFDQEHREWDLQHGIURP

h=
 tL = p q ◊ . . . )
tU
ZKHUHTLVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIDQRQ]HURYDOXHRI4

7KXVLIWKHYDOXHRIhLVVSHFLILHGWKHIUHTXHQWDFWLRQYDOXH4FDQEHREWDLQHGIURP

Ê hˆ
Q = F4- Á - ˜ . . . )
Ë q¯
DQGWKHDFWLRQUHGXFWLRQIDFWRULVHTXDOWR

Q
Y = . . . )
QN
ZKHUHWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFDFWLRQYDOXH4NFDQEHGHWHUPLQHGDFFRUGLQJWR)

:KHQREVHUYHGGDWDDUHDYDLODEOHWKHPHWKRGGHVFULEHGDERYHFDQEHXVHGGLUHFWO\IRUWKHHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHDFWLRQ
YDOXHV,QRWKHUFDVHVWKHHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHYDOXHVKDVWREHEDVHGRQVXEMHFWLYHMXGJHPHQW

,IWZRRUVHYHUDODFWLRQVLQDFRPELQDWLRQFRQWULEXWHWRDQDFWLRQHIIHFW 6 WKHYDOXHRI S LQHTXDWLRQ ) VKRXOG


LQSULQFLSOHEHGHU LYHGIURPWKHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQ )6 V IRUWKHSRLQW LQWLPHYDOXHVRIWKHF RPELQHG
ORDGHIIHFW+RZHYHULQSU DFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQVWKHUHLVQRUPDOO\RQO\RQHDF WLRQZLWK DIUHTXHQWYDOXHLQDIUHTXHQW
FRPELQDWLRQ7KHRWKHUDFWLRQVDUHLQWURGXFHGZLWKWKHLU TXDV LSHUPDQHQWY DOXHV7KLV KDV EHHQF RQVLGHUHGDV D
UHDVRQDEOHFRPSURPLVHWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHHIIHFWRIVHYHUDOYDULDEOHDFWLRQV

7KHVSHFLILHGYDOXHVRIhDUHXVXDOO\IDLUO\VPDOOPRVWRIWHQOHVVWKDQ

))UHTXHQF\RIH[FHHGLQJDQDFWLRQYDOXH

,IWKHVHFRQGGHILQLWLRQRIDIU HTXHQWYDOXHJLYHQLQLV XVHGWKHQWKHY DOXHVKRXOGEHGHWHUPLQHGLQVXFKDZD\


WKDWWKHQXPEHURIXSFURVVLQJV VHHILJXUH) SHUXQLWWLPHLHWKHXSF URVVLQJUDWHGRHVQRWH[ FHHGDV SHFLILHG
YDOXHw6

7KHXSFURVVLQJUDWHVPD\EHGHWHU PLQHGIURPGLUHFWREVHUYDWLRQRUXVLQJRWKHUSURSHUWLHVRIWKHSU RFHVV HJWKH


VSHFWUDOGHQVLW\IXQFWLRQ 


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

)LJXUH)²8SFURVVLQJVRIWKHIUHTXHQWYDOXH4DQGRIWKHPHDQYDOXHm4

,IWKHXSF URVVLQJU DWH wP RIWKHPHDQY DOXH m4 IRU WKHSRLQW LQWLPHY DOXHV VHHILJXU H) LV N QRZQDQGLIWKH
DFWLRQSU RFHVVLV D* DXVVLDQV WDWLRQDU\HU JRGLFSU RFHVVWKHQWKHIU HTXHQWDF WLRQY DOXH 4 FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRD
VSHFLILHGXSFURVVLQJUDWHw6FDQEHREWDLQHGIURP

Q = m 4 + s 4 OQ(w P  w V )

. . . )

ZKHUHσ4 LVWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQIRUWKHSRLQWLQWLPHYDOXHV4 

7KXVWKHDFWLRQUHGXFWLRQIDFWRULV

Q
Y = . . . )
QN

ZKHUHWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFDFWLRQYDOXH4NFDQEHGHWHUPLQHGDFFRUGLQJWR)

,I WZRRU PRU HDF WLRQV 4NHDF KRQHF DXVLQJDQDF WLRQHIIHF W 6LF RQWULEXWHWRWKHWRWDODF WLRQHIIHF W 6 V RWKDW
6  ∑6 LWKHQWKHXSFURVVLQJUDWHwPRIWKHPHDQYDOXHm6 FDQEHREWDLQHGIURP


wP =
 w Ls 6 i . . . )
 s 6 i
ZKHUH

wL LVWKHXSFURVVLQJUDWHRIWKHPHDQYDOXHm6 L

s6 L LVWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQIRU6 L

6LPLODUO\WRWKHSUHYLRXVFDVHWKHGHILQLWLRQRIIU HTXHQWY DOXHLV DV VRFLDWHGZLWKWKHIDLOXU HF RQGLWLRQV SHFLILHGE\


FDVHF LQ

)(VWLPDWLRQRITXDVLSHUPDQHQWYDOXHV
7KHGHILQLWLRQRITXDV LSHUPDQHQWY DOXHV VHH LV DOPRV WWKHV DPHDV WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI IUHTXHQW YDOXHV IRU WKH
FDVHWU HDWHGLQ) LHZLWKU HJDUGWRGXU DWLRQRIH[ FHHGLQJWKHIU HTXHQW YDOXH  7KH RQO\ GLIIHUHQFH OLHV LQ WKH
QXPHULFDOYDOXHV7KHQXPHULFDOYDOXHVRIhIRUIUHTXHQWDFWLRQYDOXHVOLHLQWKHLQWHUYDOWRZKLOHWKHYDOXHVDUH
HTXDOWRDERXWIRUTXDVLSHUPDQHQWDFWLRQYDOXHV7KXV WKHV DPHSU RFHGXUHWKDWZDV GHV FULEHGLQ)DQG
HTXDWLRQV ) WR ) FDQEHDSSOLHGIRUWKHHVWLPDWLRQRITXDVLSHUPDQHQWYDOXHV


‹(6$ (6,62 (

$QQH[*
LQIRUPDWLYH

([DPSOHRIDPHWKRGRIFRPELQDWLRQRIDFWLRQV

**HQHUDO
7KLVDQQH[FRQWDLQVDQH[ DPSOHRIDPHWKRG DPRQJPDQ\RWKHUSRVVLELOLWLHV RIF RPELQDWLRQRIDF WLRQVEDVHGRQ
WKHSULQFLSOHVJLYHQLQ

7KHEDVLFSULQFLSOHRIWKHPHWKRGLVWKHIROORZLQJ

² RQHDFWLRQLVFRQVLGHUHGDVGRPLQDWLQJDQGLVLQWURGXFHGLQWRWKHFRPELQDWLRQZLWKDQH[WUHPHGHVLJQYDOXH

² DOORWKHUDFWLRQVDUHLQWURGXFHGZLWKPRUHOLNHO\YDOXHV

7KHOLNHO\YDOXHVRI SHUPDQHQWDFWLRQVDUHREWDLQHGE\ PXOWLSO\LQJWKHSDU WLDOIDFWRUVE\DIDF WRUx7KHY DOXHRI x


LVGLIIHUHQWIRUXQIDYRXUDEOHDQGIDYRXUDEOHSHUPDQHQWDFWLRQV

7KHOLNHO\YDOXHVRIYDULDEOHDFWLRQVDUHREWDLQHGE\PXOWLSO\LQJWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHVE\DIDFWRUY

7KHOLNHO\YDOXHVRIDFFLGHQWDODFWLRQVDUH]HUR

2IWHQLWLVQRW DSULRULJLYHQZKLFKDFWLRQVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGDVGRPLQDWLQJWRREWDLQWKHPRV WXQIDYRXUDEOHFDVH


DQGLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRVWXG\VHYHUDOFDVHV

*$SSOLFDWLRQV
,Q WDEOH* GHV LJQY DOXHVIRU XOWLPDWHOLPLWV WDWHVDU HJLY HQIRU WKU HHW\ SHVRIF RPELQDWLRQZLWKGRPLQDWLQJ
SHUPDQHQWDFWLRQYDULDEOHDFWLRQDQGDFFLGHQWDODFWLRQUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHFRPELQDWLRQVVKRXOGEHUHDGKRUL]RQWDOO\

7DEOH*²'HVLJQYDOXHVIRUORDGFRPELQDWLRQ²8OWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWHV

'HVLJQ 'HVLJQYDOXHV
VLWXDWLRQ 3HUPDQHQWDFWLRQV 9DULDEOHDFWLRQV $FFLGHQWDO
'RPLQDWLQJ 1RWGRPLQDWLQJ 'RPLQDWLQJ 1RWGRPLQDWLQJ DFWLRQV
3HUVLVWHQW γ**N ² γ4Y4N ²
DQGWUDQVLHQW ² ξγ**N γ44N γ4Y4N ²
$FFLGHQWDO ² ξγ**N ² γ4Y4N $G
γ* LVDSDUWLDOIDFWRUIRUSHUPDQHQWDFWLRQV
γ4 LVDSDUWLDOIDFWRUYDULDEOHDFWLRQV

,QWDEOH* GHV LJQY DOXHVIRU V HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWV WDWHVDU HJLY HQIRU WKU HHW\ SHVRIF RPELQDWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLF
IUHTXHQWDQGTXDVLSHUPDQHQWFRPELQDWLRQVUHVSHFWLYHO\

7DEOH*²'HVLJQYDOXHVIRUORDGFRPELQDWLRQ²6HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWHV

7\SHRI 'HVLJQYDOXHV
FRPELQDWLRQ 3HUPDQHQW 9DULDEOH
'RPLQDWLQJ 1RWGRPLQDWLQJ
&KDUDFWHULVWLF γ**N γ44N ²
)UHTXHQW γ**N Yγ44N Yγ44N
4XDVLSHUPDQHQW γ**N Yγ44N


(6,62 ( ‹(6$

7KH FKDUDFWHULVWLF FRPELQDWLRQV DUH XVHG PDLQO\ LQ WKHF DVHZKHQH[ FHHGLQJDOLPLWV WDWHF DXVHVV HULRXV
SHUPDQHQWGDPDJH

7KHIUHTXHQWFRPELQDWLRQVDUHXVHGPDLQO\LQWKRVHFDVHVZKHQH[FHHGLQJDOLPLWVWDWHFDXVHVORFDOGDPDJHODUJH
GHIRUPDWLRQVRUYLEUDWLRQVZKLFKDUHWHPSRUDU\

7KHTXDVLSHUPDQHQWFRPELQDWLRQVDUHXVHGLQWKRVHFDVHVZKHQORQJWHUPHIIHFWVDUHGHWHUPLQDWLYH

,QVSHFLDOFDVHVRWKHUFRPELQDWLRQVPD\EHGHILQHG


‹(6$ (6,62 (

$QQH[+
LQIRUPDWLYH

,QGH[RIGHILQLWLRQV

$ 0
$FFLGHQWDODFWLRQ 0DLQWHQDQFH
$FFLGHQWDOVLWXDWLRQ 0RGHO
$FWLRQ 0RGHOXQFHUWDLQW\
$VVHVVPHQW
3
% 3DUWLDOIDFWRUVIRUPDW
%DVLFYDULDEOH 3HUPDQHQWDFWLRQ
%RXQGHGDFWLRQ 3HUVLVWHQWVLWXDWLRQ
3ULPDU\EDVLFYDULDEOH
&
&KDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHRIDQDFWLRQ 4
&KDUDFWHULVWLFYDOXHRIDPDWHULDOSURSHUW\ 4XDVLSHUPDQHQWYDOXH
&RPELQDWLRQYDOXH
&RPSOLDQFH 5
&RQYHUVLRQIDFWRU 5HIHUHQFHSHULRG
&RQYHUVLRQIXQFWLRQ 5HOLDELOLW\
5HOLDELOLW\FODVVRIVWUXFWXUHV
' 5HOLDELOLW\HOHPHQW
'HVLJQVLWXDWLRQ 5HOLDELOLW\LQGH[b
'HVLJQYDOXHRIDQDFWLRQ)G 5HSUHVHQWDWLYHYDOXHRIDQDFWLRQ
'HVLJQYDOXHRIDJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLW\ 5HYHUVLEOHOLPLWVWDWH
'HVLJQYDOXHRIDPDWHULDOSURSHUW\
'HVLJQZRUNLQJOLIH 6
'\QDPLFDFWLRQ 6HUYLFHDELOLW\
6HUYLFHDELOLW\OLPLWVWDWH
( 6WDWLFDFWLRQ
(OHPHQWUHOLDELOLW\ 6WDWLVWLFDOXQFHUWDLQW\
(QYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFH 6WUXFWXUH
6WUXFWXUDOHOHPHQW
) 6WUXFWXUDOLQWHJULW\
)DLOXUH 6WUXFWXUDOV\VWHP
)L[HGDFWLRQ 6\VWHPUHOLDELOLW\
)UHHDFWLRQ
)UHTXHQWYDOXH 7
7HUPVUHODWLQJWRDFWLRQVDFWLRQHIIHFWV
* DQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHV
*HQHUDOWHUPV 7HUPVUHODWLQJWRGHVLJQLQJHQHUDO
7HUPVUHODWLQJWRVWUXFWXUDOUHVSRQVHUHVLVWDQFH
, PDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVDQGJHRPHWULFDOTXDQWLWLHV
,UUHYHUVLEOHOLPLWVWDWH 7UDQVLHQWVLWXDWLRQ

/ 8
/LIHF\FOH 8OWLPDWHOLPLWVWDWH
/LPLWVWDWH 8QERXQGHGDFWLRQ
/LPLWVWDWHIXQFWLRQ
/RDGDUUDQJHPHQW 9
/RDGFDVH 9DULDEOHDFWLRQ
/RDGFRPELQDWLRQ


Organization and Objectives
The Ethiopian Standards Agency (ESA) is the national standards body of Ethiopia
established in 2010 based on regulation No. 193/2010.ESA is established due to the
restructuring of Quality and Standards Authority of Ethiopia (QSAE) which was
established in 1970.

ESA’s objectives are:-

T
™Develop Ethiopian standards and establish a system that enable to
Ethiopian Standards Agency
ƯųŊƵǶƲ ƯƶąljƗŒŵdžŦď

check weather goods and services are in compliance with the


required standards,
                                                                                                                                             

™Facilitate the country’s technology transfer through the use of


standards,
™Develop national standards for local products and services so as to

AF
Ethiopian Standards
The Ethiopian Standards are developed by national technical committees which are
composed of different stakeholders consisting of educational Institutions, research
institutes, government organizations, certification, inspection, and testing
organizations, regulatory bodies, consumer association etc. The requirements and/
or recommendations contained in Ethiopian Standards are consensus based that
reflects the interest of the TC representatives and also of comments received from
the public and other sources. Ethiopian Standards are approved by the National
make them competitive in the international market.
 
 

Standardization Council and are kept under continuous review after publication and
updated regularly to take account of latest scientific and technological changes.
Orders for all Ethiopian Standards, International Standard and ASTM standards,
including electronic versions, should be addressed to the Documentation and
Publication Team at the Head office and Branch (Liaisons) offices. A catalogue of
R
Ethiopian Standards is also available freely and can be accessed in from our
website.
                                                                                                                                     

ESA has the copyright of all its publications. No part of these publications may be
reproduced in any form without the prior permission in writing of ESA.
International Involvement
ESA, representing Ethiopia, is a member of the International Organization for
Standardization (ISO), and Codex Alimentarius Commission (CODEX). It also
D

maintains close working relations with the international Electro-technical


Commission (IEC) and American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM).It is a
founding member of the African Regional Organization for standardization
(ARSO).

  More Information?
  Contact us at the following address.
The  Head  Office  of  ESA  is  at  Addis  Ababa.  
 

   011-­‐  646  06  85,  011-­‐  646  05  65                    


  011-­‐646  08  80
   2310  Addis  Ababa,  Ethiopia  
 
  E-­‐mail:  info@ethiostandards.org,          

 
Website:  www.ethiostandards.org
   
  Standard  Mark                

S-ar putea să vă placă și