Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE
STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment
decision.
Executive Sum m ary: Dem and Expected to Outpace Supply Through the Spring
February Buyer Traffic Index Rises 1pt Sequentially, to 48: Overall conditions were broadly inline with expectations for
February with the majority of respondents looking for demand to exceed supply through the selling season. Rising rates and a
lack of well-priced inventory are having a varied impact on buyer psyche; agents in some markets noted these factors motivating
people and spurring heightened traffic and sales while others alluded to fatigue and frustration with the level of home price
appreciation. That said, areas with greater relative affordability—including Las Vegas, Nashville and Phoenix—continue to realize
in-migration driven by employment relocations and population shifts.
Com m entary suggests a strong 2018 selling season with traffic levels at or above agents’ expectations in 10 out of
the top 20 m arkets:
– The Index rose 10+ points in 3 MSAs (Raleigh, Nashville and Houston), was down 5 to up 10 points in 8 (Dallas, Atlanta,
Tampa, Washington DC, Jacksonville, Phoenix, Miami and New York-Northern NJ), and was down 5+ points in the
remaining 9 (Orlando, Seattle, Las Vegas, Denver, Austin, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Charlotte and the Inland Empire).
– The inventory shortage remains the main constraint on closings with the lack of inventory most acute in entry-level price
points. This comes as agents report multiple offers on affordable product and buyer willingness to move further out in the
geographic periphery.
Hom e Price Index Rises 6pts from January and Num ber of Listings Index Fell 6pts: Home prices rose in 24 of our 37
surveyed markets this month as the declining number of listings fuels continued home price appreciation.
Realtors Provide On-the-Ground Read on Conditions: We survey local agents on a monthly basis in order to better gauge
changes in supply and demand. Results are used to calculate a diffusion index, with a reading of 50+ indicating an improvement.
100 100
Home Price Index
Buyer Traffic Index
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Jun-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-15
May-15
Feb-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations <50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
Note: Please see appendix for a detailed description of our survey and index calculation methodology.
Source: Credit Suisse
February Top 20 Market Sum m ary:
Lack of Available Inventory and Rising Rates Motivate Buyers
Buyer Prior Home Builder
Traffic Month Home Listings Sell Time Incentives
Rank Top 20 MSAs Index Rank Price Index Index Index Index Agent Highlights
Raleigh experienced a sharp increase in the buyer traffic index as warmer weather and the prospect of higher rates fueled buyer demand for
1 Raleigh, NC 83 (+48) 20(+19) 92 (+13) 42 (-30) 75 (-4) 50 (-7)
homes. While traffic was strong, realtors noted that there continues to be a shortage of inventory in the sub $300K range.
In-migration and economic growth is driving strong traffic levels in Nashville. A shortage of inventory remains across price points, as
2 Nashville, TN 56 (+16) 19(+17) 63 (+13) 63 (+23) 43 (+3) 19 (+9)
prospective sellers with equity are choosing to stay put given the difficulty of finding a new home.
Realtors are continuing to see incremental demand from Hurricane Harvey come through contributing to higher traffic levels this month. Pent-
3 Houston, TX 55 (+13) 11(+8) 50 (+8) 60 (-5) 70 (+8) 50 (+4)
up demand remains in the region as rising rates has not yet affected buyer decision making on the ground.
Despite a rainy month, Dallas saw increased traffic as a strong local economy and job relocations continue to add to demand levels. Realtors
4 Dallas, TX 57 (+7) 2(-2) 57 (-2) 50 (+9) 21 (-15) 29 (-8)
noted rising interest rates are moving buyers off the fence and into contracts.
The spring market is beginning to heat up in Atlanta with buyers looking to get ahead of rising rates. The shortage of quality inventory persists
5 Atlanta, GA 46 (+7) 8(+3) 85 (+6) 50 (-11) 65 (+12) 35 (-4)
despite strong demand, though rising prices are beginning to cause sticker shock for new buyers entering the market.
Improved traffic levels this month resulted from job relocations and rising demand from snowbirds. Buyers sought to get ahead of rising rates
6 Tampa, FL 42 (+7) 9(+3) 81 (+1) 81 (+1) 69 (+4) 54 (+9)
though realtors do not expect higher rates to meaningfully impact the ability to qualify for mortgages.
Activity improved this month as realtors highlighted eagerness to get ahead of the spring selling season. Mortgage rates remain attractive
7 Washington, DC 63 (+5) 14(+7) 59 (-10) 68 (-5) 65 (-5) 50 (0)
though realtors expect continued increases could begin to weigh on demand.
The lack of available inventory pushed prices of existing homes higher and kept demand below agents' expectations. Realtors expect rising
8 Jacksonville, FL 38 (+4) 7(-1) 88 (+38) 75 (+33) 75 (+33) 38 (+13)
rates will not deter buyers as long as they can qualify.
Relative affordability has contributed to further in-migration and population growth. The limited home supply alongside rising rates motivated
9 Phoenix, AZ 50 (+2) 16(+7) 74 (+13) 76 (+14) 64 (+10) 48 (0)
buyers to make quicker purchasing decisions.
Though agents noted rate hikes encouraging buyers in the area, the lack of available inventory and elevated prices kept traffic levels below
10 Miami, FL 26 (0) 17(+7) 54 (-4) 48 (+15) 35 (+19) 36 (+13)
expectations. Further, realtors highlighted a continued decline in the number of foreign buyers.
Realtors cited minimal existing inventory, particularly at the entry-level price points, as the main traffic bottleneck. Moreover, agents remarked
11 New York-Northern NJ 28 (-4) 13(+2) 74 (+6) 67 (-5) 63 (+13) 57 (+10)
buyers appeared more cautious following the passage of tax reform.
With rates on the rise, buyer uncertainty caused an increase in the length of time needed to sell a home. Agents expect buyers will adjust their
12 Orlando, FL 31 (-6) 15(+3) 44 (-19) 44 (-13) 38 (+2) 69 (-10)
starting price ranges downward given the move in rates.
Despite commentary concerning rising prices and a lack of affordable inventory, traffic remained strong in Seattle with agents seeing multiple
13 Seattle, WA 50 (-7) 6(-7) 88 (+14) 78 (+1) 68 (+4) 53 (+3)
offers on all properties and demand outpacing supply.
Agents noted heightened in-migration from California with relative affordability attracting buyers to the area. Traffic remained above realtors'
14 Las Vegas, NV 54 (-7) 12(-2) 92 (-6) 62 (-12) 67 (+8) 50 (+5)
expectations as buyers sought to find deals ahead of the selling season and further rate movements.
Commentary overwhelmingly centered on critically low inventory levels supporting continued home price appreciation. Fundamental demand
15 Denver, CO 38 (-10) 18(+3) 79 (+22) 79 (-1) 50 (+2) 46 (0)
remains with buyers focused on the limited supply of homes rather than rising rates.
In February, agents noted strong buyer confidence with rising rates creating a sense of urgency ahead of the spring. Multiple offers are the new
16 Austin, TX 50 (-11) 5(-11) 90 (+18) 55 (+5) 55 (+11) 45 (+23)
normal as demand levels remain above supply.
The Buyer Traffic Index declined sequentially and remained below realtors' expectations as elevated prices and a shortage of quality inventory
17 Los Angeles, CA 31 (-15) 10(-7) 77 (+8) 58 (-4) 52 (+2) 53 (+15)
muted demand. That said, agents do not believe rate increases have impacted buyers' ability to qualify.
Contrary to the majority of the country, the number of listings in San Antonio increased this month though prices continue to rise. Demand
18 San Antonio, TX 67 (-17) 1(-17) 100 (+25) 17 (-33) 67 (-17) 33 (+17)
stayed above agents' expectations with buyers rushing to purchase in advance of further rate movements.
Traffic levels faltered this month as frustration over the lack of available inventory pushed demand below realtors' expectations. Prices rose
19 Charlotte, NC 29 (-21) 3(-16) 83 (-7) 71 (+11) 50 (0) 50 (0)
sequentially in the area for the eighth consecutive month.
20 Inland Empire, CA 25 (-31) 4(-16) 58 (-10) 58 (+1) 42 (-8) 58 (+1) While rising rates spurred some buyers to enter the market, elevated home prices kept demand below agents' expectations this month.
Source: Credit Suisse Note: Markets ranked according to sequential change in buyer traffic index
Table of Contents
80
increased sequentially ahead of the spring selling season as
60
urgent buyers look to purchase before further rate hikes.
40
20
The Hom e Price Index increased to 85 from 79 last m onth.
0
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Oct-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Buyers are out there, but struggling to find a house for sale.”
“Lack of quality listings.”
“Buyers experiencing sticker shock.”
100
“More urgency to buy and lock in rates before they rise.”
Home Price Index
80
60
“Low inventory levels are discouraging some buyers.”
40
“Spring market beginning to heat up.”
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
Traffic levels met agents’ expectations despite continued home
60
40
price appreciation.
20 The Hom e Price Index rose to 90 from 72 last m onth.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
“More buyers than homes with multiple listings the norm.”
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Strong February given stable oil prices and interest rates
creating a sense of urgency.”
100 “Higher rates getting buyers of the fence in the short-term
Home Price Index
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
Apr-16
May-16
80
A mild winter spurred higher than usual traffic in February.
60
40
The Hom e Price Index increased to 83 from 50 last m onth.
20
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Realtors marketing ahead of the spring market.”
“Buyers coming out before the true start of the selling
100
season.”
“Milder than normal winter.”
Home Price Index
80
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
January.
60
40
The Hom e Price Index rose to 90 from 77 last m onth: An
20 inventory shortage is fueling the continued rise in home prices.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Lack of realistically priced inventory.”
“Desperate buyers searching for a home amidst an inventory
shortage.”
100
“Pre-spring buyers starting to get out again.”
Home Price Index
80
60
“An estimated 10% of the buyer pool, frustrated by the lack of
inventory will continue to rent long-term.”
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
m onth: Demand fell below agents’ expectations with buyers
60
40
frustrated at the lack of available inventory.
20 The Hom e Price Index fell to 83 from 90 last m onth.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Lack of inventory and higher interest rates.”
“Low inventory continues to drive demand.”
100
“Potentially rising rates has pushed some buyers to get more
serious.”
Home Price Index
80
60 “Rising rates may have dampened traffic but we will wait to
40 see the impact on the high demand spring season.”
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
in January: Bitter cold alongside the gradual impact from tax
60
40
reform is discouraging home purchases in Illinois.
20 The Hom e Price Index increased to 67 from 55 in the
0 prior m onth.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Brutal weather, low inventory.”
“First-time buyers coming out.”
100
“Limited inventory but low and middle end markets are moving
right along.”
Home Price Index
80
60 “Proactive buyers getting a head start on the spring market.”
40 “So far, negligible impact from rates.”
20 “New tax plan disincentives home purchases in Illinois.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
Amidst a tight supply environment, buyers looked to get ahead
60
of rising rates, prices and competition.
40
The Hom e Price Index rose to 90 from 75 last m onth.
20
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
“Anxious buyers looking to beat further increases in interest
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations rates.”
100
“Due to inventory shortage, buyers must be intentional about
finding what they want.”
Home Price Index
80
60 “Buyers starting to emerge.”
40 “Rates rising will only be a problem if buyers start looking before
20 getting pre-qualified by a lender.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
Apr-16
May-16
Note: Adjusting for the merger, Lennar Corp. data has been revised to include CalAtlantic
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 11
Dallas, TX
Key Takeaways:
100
The Buyer Traffic Index rose to 57 from 50 last m onth:
Buyer Traffic Index
80
Agents pointed to a strong local economy and rising rates
60
40
motivating buyers to close on homes.
20 The Hom e Price Index ticked down to 57 from 59.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
“Rising interest rates are moving buyers off the fence and into
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
contracts.”
“People relocating to the area for jobs.”
100 “Higher rates have increased demand initially.”
Home Price Index
80
“Cold and rain have kept potential buyers from touring
60
regularly, but they are buying when they go out.”
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
60
The Hom e Price Index increased to 79 from 57 last
40
20
m onth: Critically low inventory levels support sequential price
0 appreciation.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
“Historically low inventory and extreme price increases.”
“Lack of inventory – more buyers than properties.”
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
80
60
“Demand is still there, but rising rates could create a lower level
40 of affordability.”
20 “Prices are high and inventory is low.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
Agents saw sequentially lower traffic levels resulting from poor
60
40
weather, rising prices and limited quality inventory.
20 The Hom e Price Index rose to 67 from 50 last m onth.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
“Weather conditions have kept potential buyers from looking at
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
properties.”
“More buyers than sellers – lack of viable inventory.”
100
“Buyers priced out of the move-up market.”
Home Price Index
80
60
“Additional competition for limited inventory and current high
40
prices have dampened buyer traffic.”
20 “No impact from rising rates yet.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
Demand stayed above agents’ expectations with buyers
60
40
undeterred by the prospect of rising rates.
20 The Hom e Price Index was unchanged this m onth at 67.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Buyers are optimistic and plentiful.”
“Snowbirds out and looking for properties.”
100
“Possible demand benefit from tax code changes.”
“Small rate increase does not appear to be having a material
Home Price Index
80
60 effect on demand or on buyers’ ability to qualify.”
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
The emergence of pent-up demand drove traffic above agents’
60
40
expectations in February.
20 The Hom e Price Index increased to 50 from 42 in the
0 prior m onth.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Pent-up demand.”
“Limited effect of rising rates so far though first-time buyers
may have more difficulty qualifying.”
100
“Still seeing incremental demand resulting from Hurricane
Home Price Index
80
Harvey.”
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
The Hom e Price Index increased to 83 from 63 in the
60
prior m onth: Limited available inventory translated into the
40
sixth consecutive month of sequential home price appreciation.
20
80
60
40
20
80
60
The Hom e Price Index lowered to 58 from 69 in the prior
40
m onth: While the rate of appreciation slowed, home prices
20
0 rose sequentially for the fifth consecutive month.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
“Further price increases.”
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Potentially rising rates are spurring buyers to jump into the
market.”
100
Home Price Index
80
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
m onth: Agents noted a limited supply of homes driving prices
60
40
higher in February.
20 The Hom e Price Index lifted to 88 from 50 in the prior
0 m onth.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Oct-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
“Smaller inventory and higher prices.”
“If buyers can qualify, they will still purchase.”
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
100
Home Price Index
80
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations “Low inventory, rising prices.”
“Spring is in the air.”
100 “Job growth is leading to housing demand.”
Home Price Index
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
Apr-16
May-16
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
“Buyers out early to find a deal ahead of the spring price
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
bump.”
“Increased interest rates has not deterred buyers.”
100 “Escalating new home prices and a rising number of new
Home Price Index
80
home communities.”
60
40
“Limited amount of desirable and affordable existing
20 inventory.”
0 “Continued in-migration of buyers from California.”
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
m onth.
60
40
The Hom e Price Index rose to 77 from 69: Inflated home
20 prices and lack of quality available inventory are constraining
0 demand levels.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Shortage of inventory.”
“Higher prices and higher rates.”
“Rates have not gone up enough to affect buyers’ ability.”
100
“Inflated home prices in tandem with higher interest rates has
Home Price Index
80
made buyers wary of how much debt they can absorb.”
60
40
“Inventory constraints continue to drive the market.”
20
“High taxes, stagnant wages and job uncertainty.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Slow beginning of February, but seeing activity now.”
“Low and overpriced inventory.”
100
“Loss of many foreign buyers.”
“Rising rates getting buyers off the fence.”
Home Price Index
80
60 “Higher rates are a looming threat.”
40 “Rate hikes are encouraging buyers but there is no affordable
20 inventory in the area.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
Rising rates are creating a sense of urgency among buyers,
60
40
with the greatest demand seen in the lower price points.
20 The Hom e Price Index rose to 88 from 73 last m onth.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Better weather, rising rates and beginning of the spring
parade of homes.”
100
“Lack of inventory will create high traffic on good product.”
“Rising rates adds more demand for lower priced homes
Home Price Index
80
60 which are few and far between.”
40 “Seeing urgency from buyers in the marketplace.”
20 “Starting to notice the lowering of qualifying amounts.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
Buyer traffic returned to exceed realtors’ expectations as in-
60
40
migration supports fundamental housing demand.
20 The Hom e Price Index increased to 63 from 50 in January.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Few homes on the market in the price range under $300k.”
“Sellers would love to capitalize on their equity however not
100
seeing any current homes available to purchase.”
“Increased population and economic growth.”
Home Price Index
80
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
prior m onth: The lack of inventory coupled with persistent
60
40
price increases has discouraged buyers.
20 The Hom e Price Index rose to 74 from 68 last m onth.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Higher prices and low inventory – especially for starter homes.”
“Minimal inventory, particularly in the first-time buyer price
100
range.”
“Tax law changes are motivating the average home seeker to
Home Price Index
80
60 move out of New York.”
40 “Buyers are more cautious with many going all cash and
20 purchasing less expensive homes.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
Apr-16
May-16
80
Demand remained below realtors’ expectations in February as
60
40
many noted an increase in the time needed to sell a home.
20 The Hom e Price Index declined to 44 from 63 in the
0 prior m onth.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Oct-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Interest rates change the price range buyers can afford.”
“New construction prices are on the rise.”
100
“Increasing mortgage rates.”
Home Price Index
80
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
motivated to purchase by the prospect of rising rates, though
60
40
some are being forced to consider more peripheral areas.
20 The Hom e Price Index cam e in higher at 75 vs. 65 last
0 m onth.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Normal spring activity beginning to build.”
“Competitive bidding for existing inventory out in the market.”
100
“As rates move upward, the initial response among buyers is to
act more quickly.”
Home Price Index
80
60 “Slight uptick in interest rates has buyers moving from the
40 sidelines to purchasing.”
20 “Buyers forced to consider more peripheral locations.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
m onth: Activity met realtors’ expectations in February as
60
40
climbing interest rates and limited supply fuel pent-up demand.
20 The Hom e Price Index rose to 74 from 60 last m onth.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“With housing supply at record lows, traffic seems busy for
the time of year.”
100
“Lower supply, pent-up demand, climbing interest rates.”
“Jump in rates has pushed on the fence buyers.”
Home Price Index
80
60 “Arizona job growth is leading to an expanding population
40 alongside disasters in California.”
20 “A slow, steady rate increase is expected.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
m onth: Traffic levels rose sequentially as buyers look to close
60
40
on homes ahead of the spring selling season and rising rates.
20 The Hom e Price Index rose slightly to 77 from 75 in the
0 prior m onth.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Buyer frustration over lack of inventory.”
“Buyers trying to get ahead of the spring season.”
100
“Potential buyers motivated by the fear of rising rates.”
“Rising rates has pushed buyers at the lower end of the
Home Price Index
80
60 market to move more quickly.”
40 “No impact on buyers’ ability to qualify yet, but the next round
20 of increases could make a difference.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
Agents saw an increase in demand as warm weather and the
60
40
prospect of rising rates had buyers out and looking.
20 The Hom e Price Index was higher at 92 vs. 79 last m onth .
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Oct-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Low inventory under $300k.”
“Seasonal increase as February begins the spring buying
season in earnest.”
100
“Warm weather drawing buyers back out.”
Home Price Index
80
60
“Rising rates causing an initial increase in demand.”
40
“More buyers purchasing before rates move higher.”
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
m onth: Limited home supply and fear of further rising interest
60
40
rates kept buyer traffic above agents’ expectations.
20 The Hom e Price Index rem ained unchanged at 75.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Oct-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Low inventory and fear of rising interest rates.”
“Lack of available inventory, rising rates and rising rents.”
100
“Demand is still high though increased rates have forced some
buyers to lower their expectations.”
Home Price Index
80
60 “Rate increases has not changed qualifying, but has impacted
40 buyers’ desire to pay higher prices.”
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
Apr-16
May-16
80
prior m onth.
60
40
The Hom e Price Index hit 100, up from 75 last m onth:
20 Prices rose despite agents reporting an increase in the
0 number of listings on the market in February.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Buyers are rushing to purchase in advance of rate hikes.”
“More homes on the market, but prices still rising.”
120
“Critically short inventory of affordable homes.”
“Steady activity.”
Home Price Index
100
80
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
60
40
The Hom e Price Index rose to 69 from 63 last m onth.
20 The persistent inventory shortage continues to push prices
0 higher for the 8th consecutive month.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Inventory shortages and rising prices.”
“Discouraged buyers as median family income is not sufficient
100
to qualify for a medium priced home.”
“No impact from rates yet, but further rises will price some out
Home Price Index
80
60 of the market.”
40 “When rates tick up, buyers tend to think they must act now or
20 they will miss out.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-15
May-15
Feb-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“High consumer confidence and continued reduction in
inventory.”
100
“Panic buying ahead of further interest rate increases.”
“More buyers than sellers, leading to high prices.”
Home Price Index
80
60 “Lack of inventory is the big issue constraining closings.”
40 “Buyers are afraid of rates jumping.”
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
Apr-16
May-16
80
m onth.
60
40
The Hom e Price Index was unchanged at 50: Home
20 prices remained flat sequentially perhaps encouraging further
0 snowbird traffic.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Oct-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Typically busy time of year due to snowbird traffic.”
“Low inventory and overpriced properties.”
100
“If rates continue to move upward it will further depress first-
time and entry-level buyers.”
Home Price Index
80
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
Despite the sequential decline, demand met realtors’
60
40
expectations with mild weather and rising rates motivating
20 buyers ahead of the selling season.
0 The Hom e Price Index rose to 88 from 73 last m onth.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
“Not enough homes to meet buyer demand.”
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Rising rates and high employment encouraging traffic.”
“Mild weather and pent-up demand.”
100 “Rates will only slow the market if they rise too high too fast.”
Home Price Index
80
“Seeing multiple offers on everything.”
60
40
“No affordable housing left in Seattle or main suburbs.”
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
60
40
The Hom e Price Index ticked up to 81 from 80 last
20 m onth: The acute inventory shortage, especially at the lower
0 end, continues to push prices higher.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“High rents make it cheaper to buy.”
“Job transfers into the area.”
100
“Almost no inventory in the lower price ranges, under $150k.”
“Snowbirds still looking in the area.”
Home Price Index
80
60 “Buyers wanting to lock something in due to rising rates.”
40 “Limited to no effect of rising rates on buyers’ ability to
20 qualify.”
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
Apr-16
May-16
80
reported traffic levels above expectations resulting from
60
40
heightened snowbird activity.
20 The Hom e Price Index declined to 72 this m onth from 81.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Winter visitors staying busy in the housing market.”
“Positive impact from tax reform offsets negative impact of
100
rising rates.”
Home Price Index
80
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
Apr-16
May-16
Note: Adjusting for the merger, Lennar Corp. data has been revised to include CalAtlantic
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 39
Virginia Beach, VA
Key Takeaways:
100
The Buyer Traffic Index rose to 50 from 33 in the prior
Buyer Traffic Index
80
m onth: Despite the cold weather, rising rates drove increased
60
40
demand ahead of the spring selling season.
20 The Hom e Price Index fell to 63 from 90 last m onth.
0
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Oct-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
“Very cold weather.”
“Concern over interest rates will drive increased demand.”
100
“Rate hikes will drive buyers to purchase early.”
Home Price Index
80
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
80
Demand remain strong amidst a background of low inventory
60
40
and rising prices.
20 The Hom e Price Index declined to 59 from 69 in the
0 prior m onth.
Com m ents from Real Estate Agents
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Feb-18
“Low inventory and high buyer traffic.”
“Buyers looking to get a jump on the spring.”
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations
80
60
40
20
0
Market Overview and Builder Exposure
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-18
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Feb-18
May-15
May-16
Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives, inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a
home. This month, we received responses from ~500 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and calculate a diffusion index for
each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends, levels below 50 indicating negative trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral
trend. We have removed Charleston, SC, Columbus, OH and St. Louis, MO due to limited number of respondents. We will be expanding our
distribution list in these regions before adding them back into the survey results.
1) How does the hom ebuyer traffic over the past 30 days com pare with what is typical seasonally? Because of seasonality to traffic trends
– generally more traffic in Spring and less in Fall/Winter – we ask about traffic relative to the expectations for this time of year rather than how traffic
compared to the prior month. A Buyer Traffic Index above 50 means that traffic was above the expectations of agents, a Buyer Traffic Index of 50
means that traffic was in-line with expectations, and a Buyer Traffic Index below 50 means that traffic was below expectations.
2) Have prices rem ained the sam e, increased, or decreased over the past 30 days? A Home Price Index above 50 indicates that prices
increased over the past 30 days, a Home Price Index of 50 indicates that prices were flat, and a Home Price Index below 50 indicates that prices
decreased.
3) Have incentives rem ained the sam e, increased, or decreased over the past 30 days? An Incentive index above 50 indicates that incentives
decreased over the past 30 days, an incentive index of 50 indicates that incentives were unchanged, and an incentive index below 50 indicates that
incentives increased.
4) Do you see the sam e, m ore, or fewer, listings as com pared with 30 days ago? An inventory (listings) index above 50 indicates that the
inventory of homes for sale decreased over the past 30 days, an inventory index of 50 indicates that inventories were unchanged, and an inventory
index below 50 indicates that inventories increased.
5) Does it take the sam e, m ore, or less tim e to sell a house? A time to sell index above 50 indicates that the time needed to sell a home
decreased over the past 30 days, a time to sell index of 50 indicates that the time needed to sell a home was unchanged, and a time to sell index
below 50 indicates that the time needed to sell a home increased.
Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is: This research report is authored by:
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC ........................................................................................ Susan Maklari ; Christopher Kalata ; Amanda Luper
Global Ratings Distribution
Important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this report are available by calling +1 (877) 291-2683. The same important
Rating Versus universe (%) Of which banking clients (%) disclosures, with the exception of valuation methodology and risk discussions, are also available on Credit Suisse’s disclosure website at
Outperform/Buy* 47% (62% banking clients) https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures . For valuation methodology and risks associated with any recommendation, price target, or rating referenced
Neutral/Hold* 37% (56% banking clients) in this report, please refer to the disclosures section of the most recent report regarding the subject company.
Underperform/Sell* 13% (54% banking clients)
Restricted 2%
*For purposes of the NYSE and FINRA ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, a nd Underperform most closely correspond
to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.)
An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other indivi dual factors.