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Massive debt is a drag on the economy, creates consumer price inflation, and increases income inequality. The
debt will be addressed via default (Sorry, we’re not paying! Best of luck with your future investments!). Or more
likely, it will be paid with DEPRECIATING dollars that buy far less than in 2017, 2000, 1971, and 1913.
(From Alan Greenspan 1966)
The Economist Magazine cover from 1988 showed a new world currency would arise, like a Phoenix, in 2018.
It was an enigmatic cover that begged questions.
1. Did the Economist anticipate the inevitable decline of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency used for
global trade?
2. Did the Economist expect the rise of the SDR (Special Drawing Rights), another fiat currency issued by the
IMF (International Monetary Fund)?
3. Was the Economist prescient on the rise of cryptocurrencies?
4. Why pick 2018? Why not 2008, 2010, 2020, or 2028?
5. Did the Economist choose 2018 based on these ideas? – link here.
From Gary Savage: The Surprise for 2018
“The surprise in 2018 is going to be the collapse in the US dollar. It will drive the bubble phase in stocks (it
already is), it will drive gold out of its basing pattern (I think it has begun), and inflation in general will start to
rise significantly next year (oil is already at $60 when many were looking for a return to sub $30).”
From Vladimir Putin in 2011:
“They [USA] are living beyond their means and shifting a part of the weight of their problems to the world
economy… They [USA] are living like parasites off the global economy and their monopoly of the dollar.”
The Russian retaliation against the dollar has several phases, including accumulation of gold bullion (in place
of U.S. dollars) and development of global trade payments based on gold, an alternative to dollar systems.
From Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence (Subscription Service)
“Recently, and in a remarkable – but not unexpected – announcement, First Deputy Chairman of Russia’s
Central Bank, Sergey Shvetsov announced that BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa),
are now working to create a unified system of gold trade.
In essence, this new gold-trade system will become a parallel, globe-spanning monetary system, in competition
with the current, dollar-based regime.”
From Peter Schiff: Pakistan Dumps the Dollar in Trade With China
“The United States uses the dollar as a weapon to keep other countries in line, but it’s becoming a less and
less effective strategy as other nations find ways to minimize their dependence on the greenback.”
CONCLUSIONS AND ACTIONS
The dollar fell against other currencies in 2017, as it has against most commodities for decades. Expect the
slide in purchasing power to accelerate in 2018 due to excessive U.S. debt, the rise of global competition to the
dollar as reserve currency, changing global financial systems, the rise of private and central bank issued
cryptocurrencies, and declining confidence in the U.S. economy.
Protect your savings and retirement by escaping the guaranteed destruction of dollars (euros, pounds, yen etc.)
by moving into something more real than a “high yield” checking account that pays 0.01% interest, a Ten Year
Treasury Note that pays less than 3%, or an over-valued stock market. Silver and gold come to mind.
WHAT ABOUT GOLD?
THE MEDIA TELLS US GOLD IS DANGEROUS AND UNSTABLE. We can’t eat gold or buy gasoline with it.
We can’t eat dollar bills or buy gasoline with Treasury Notes either. Gold has been money for thousands of
years while Federal Reserve Notes are debts (IOUs), not assets, issued by the Federal Reserve. The
purchasing power of those notes depends upon confidence in government, central bank “printing” policies, and
expected future inflation.
It requires real effort to mine gold, but Federal Reserve Notes, Currency Swaps, Guaranteed Loans,
Quantitative Easing Scams, and more Central Bank manipulations “create” dollars, yen, pounds, and euros by
the trillions from nothing.
Counterfeiting twenty dollar bills in your basement is illegal, but it’s perfectly acceptable if the Federal Reserve
prints them, which inflates the currency supply.
From Alan Greenspan: Gold and Economic Freedom (1966)
“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through
inflation. There is no safe store of value.”
Tom McClellan of McClellan Financial sees an eight year cycle in gold lows and thinks gold will move much
higher from here.
“McClellan Financial says an eight-year cycle for gold is about to start and the next five years will likely
be good ones.”
“As we head into early 2018, we have both the 8-year cycle and the 13 ½ month cycle in their ascending
phase. That means both horses are pulling in the same direction, and it should mean good things for gold
prices especially in the first half of the year.”
All fiat currencies devalue over time, so gold prices, consumer prices, and stock prices rise. Like Bitcoin, they
can bubble higher, such as gold in 1980, Internet stocks in 1999-2000, houses in 2006, and tech-stocks and
cryptocurrencies in 2017-2018.
Gold prices rise as currencies fall toward zero purchasing power. Other forces that will propel gold higher are:
The decline of the Petrodollar, and the rise of the Petroyuan and Petroruble will weaken the dollar. The
Petrodollar and the dollar’s reserve currency status will not disappear overnight, but both are threatened.
Gold will rise as the dollar loses its reserve currency status. Read Pepe Escobar on China’s Petro-Yuan
Bombshell.
Gold has corrected from its 2011 high for over six years. Gold prices bottomed in December 2015, and
reached higher lows in December 2016 and 2017. All-time highs will occur in 2018 or 2019.
Wars are expensive and inflationary. Congress, the Administration, and the Military show no sign of
restricting the “Defense” budget or curtailing military interventions. Reportedly the U.S. Military has troops
in 170+ countries.
North Korea, Syria, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East are “hot spots.” We don’t know how extensive
these wars will become, but new or escalating wars will be expensive and create far more debt. Gold
prices will rise.
Gold prices bottomed in late 2015 and have risen since then. Expect gold prices to accelerate higher in 2018
and 2019 as currencies weaken, stock markets and bond markets correct, and a credibility crisis erupts
surrounding central bankers and governments that have mismanaged their economies and currencies.
Examine this log-scale chart of gold prices over 20 years. You can see gold’s exponential rise (straight line on
a log scale chart) as the purchasing power of the dollar has declined, particularly since 9-11. Gold prices are
tracking upward on the low end of their exponential hannel.
Prices could stay within the 25 year exponential trend channel, as drawn, and reach $5,000 by early next
decade. A “moonshot” as shown by the black dashed line connecting four major highs puts $10,000 in
play. Even higher prices are possible.
How high gold moves in the next decade depends on loss of confidence in the US dollar, the rise of other
trading currencies, such as Russian and Chinese supported gold backed trading units, and how rapidly The
Fed and U.S. government inflate the supply of dollars through uncontrolled deficit spending and other
destructive policies.
Silver: In my opinion silver is a better investment than gold. Read this article.
If you prefer the time-tested wealth preservation of precious metals instead of devaluing debt based currency
units, consider silver and gold.
Call Miles Franklin at 1-800-822-8080 to buy silver and gold. They will preserve the purchasing power of your
savings and retirement assets.
Article no 3
Gold Price Exclusive Update
Jack Chan
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most
effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because
periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term
whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear
direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
During a major buy signal, investors can accumulate positions by cost
averaging at cycle bottoms, ideally when prices are at or near the daily
200ema.
During a major sell signal, investors should be hedged or in cash.
Traders
Simply cost average in at cycle bottoms when prices are at or near the
daily 200ema; and cost average out at cycle tops when prices are above
the daily 50ema.
19
First, Gold, historically, has been and will continue to be the basis of physical
wealth for the foreseeable future. Currently, Gold and Silver are relatively low cost
compared to other assets offering similar protection. As of right now, Gold and
Silver are nearing the lowest price ratio levels, historically, that have existed since
1990. This means, the relationship of the price ratio for Gold and Silver are
comparatively low in relationship to how Gold and Silver are priced in peak levels.
So, right now is the time to be acquiring Gold and Silver as a low price hedge
against another global crisis event or market meltdown.
Second, the fact that the Gold and Silver price ratio is historically very low
(meaning they provide a very good hedging opportunity at historically very low
price ratio levels) also means that cash can be traded for physical gold with very
limited risk and provide an excellent hedge for inflation, global market crisis
events and as long term investments. Taking advantage of the current market
conditions, one has to be aware that crisis events do exist and present a clear risk to
future equity investments. One could decide to risk further capital hedging with
options or short positions as risk becomes more evident, but these are inherently
more risky than a physical Gold or Silver investment. Physical Gold or Silver,
especially rare coins which include greater intrinsic value, can provide real capital,
real gains, real hedging of risk and real return – whereas the short positions or
options are only valuable if the trade is executed to profit.
Lastly, Gold and Silver are very limited in supply on this planet and, unless society
decides that Gold or Silver is absolutely worthless as a substance, will likely
continue to increase in value. News that China and Russia are acquiring hundreds
of tons of gold each year in preparation for a gold based currency are another set of
reasons that you should consider starting your own physical hoard of precious
metals. The most important thing for you to understand about owning physical
Gold and Silver is that it is a protective investment that can be liquidated or resold
at almost any time in the future. It can be traded, held, secured and transported
easily. You can physically take possession of your Gold and Silver and be assured
that through any banking crisis, global market crisis or major global event, you
have enough physical precious metal to operate in a crisis mode and likely attain
great wealth/gains in the process.
Think of physical Gold and Silver like an “emergency kit”. You hope you never
need it, but when you do need it, you had better be prepared and have set aside
some physical holdings before the crisis event happened. Out here in California,
we keep “Earthquake Kits” with emergency supplies, water, lanterns, food and
other essentials. Well, guess what is included in my Earthquake Kit? Yup – Gold
and Silver in proper quantities that I could barter and trade for items that are
essential.
The point of my post is that I can think of no reasons why anyone would not want
to attain some physical Gold and Silver at today’s prices to protect against known
risks, provide a hedge against inflation and crisis events and to protect wealth from
what we all know will happen in a crisis event – the banks will close or limit cash
availability (think of Greece). So, it is really up to you to determine if and how you
want to prepare for what could happen in the future. Will you have your
“emergency kit” and be prepared or not?
2- Diversification is key
By Ben Reynolds – Ben Reynolds is CEO at Sure Dividend. Sure Dividend is an
investment information and newsletter site dedicated to high quality dividend
growth stocks.
www.suredividend.com
For most people, the purpose if investing is building up a nest egg large enough to
live off in retirement. In a perfect world, your portfolio’s growing dividend income
would more than cover your expenses in retirement. In this ‘best case’ scenario,
there’s no need to sell holdings as dividends alone cover expenses.
Unfortunately, this is often not the case in the real world. When portfolio income
isn’t sufficient, you must slowly liquidate your portfolio. This presents a serious
problem – forced selling.
When you are forced to sell, you don’t get to pick when you sell. You sell to get
cash, not because it’s a good time to sell. This can cause selling at inopportune
times – like selling stocks in March of 2009.
To counteract forced selling, investing in uncorrelated assets is essential. If your
stock holdings are down big due to a recession it’s the worst time to sell. Instead,
you can sell an uncorrelated asset which might be up.
Again, reality makes things difficult. There are very few asset classes that are
uncorrelated with stocks. The two largest are long-term government bonds and
gold.
Interestingly, stocks, long-term government bonds, and gold are all uncorrelated
with each other – meaning you get big diversification gains from them. The
Permanent Portfolio best utilizes these uncorrelated assets to form an easy-to-
implement strategy.
Perhaps the greatest benefit of investing in gold is taking advantage of its unique
investment properties; namely, that it is not correlated with stocks or bonds. This
is especially important for investors who will be slowly liquidating their portfolios
as it provides a hedge against stock and bond market declines.
Gold has moved above its 50 and 200 week moving averages:
*********
This article is the collaboration of Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony,
cofounders of Seabridge Gold, and reflects the thinking that has helped
make them successful gold investors. Rudi is the current Chairman and
CEO of Seabridge and Jim is one of its largest shareholders.
Disclaimer: The authors are not registered or accredited as investment
advisors. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources
believed reliable but is not necessarily complete and accuracy is not
guaranteed. Any securities mentioned on this site are not to be construed
as investment or trading recommendations specifically for you. You must
consult your own advisor for investment or trading advice. This article
is for informational purposes only.
Gold-Eagle provides regular commentary and analysis of gold, precious
metals and the economy. Be the first to be informed by signing up for
our free email newsletter.
Gold has been one of the best investments over the last decade going
from a low of $252 to a high of $1889. If you’re looking for a way to
protect against the effects of inflation, currency collapse or economic
instability, here are a few things to consider about why gold should be
in your portfolio.
Since July 1944, when delegates from all 44 Allied nations gathered in
Bretton Woods, New Hampshire., the dollar has been the
reserve currency of the world. This gave it an advantage, because
other countries needed it in order to engage in trade with one another.
Prior to this countries traded gold with each other to settle their
debts. After Bretton Woods they could exchange Dollars instead and
the U.S. Dollar was supposed to be pegged at $35 per ounce of gold.
But the U.S. began inflating the dollar and before long all that was left
was an illusion that it was worth $35 an ounce. So wisely other
countries began calling the United States bluff and requesting gold for
$35 an ounce and eventually Nixon was forced to admit that we
couldn’t afford to sell it at that price any longer and he was accused of
“closing the Gold Window”
But Nixon still had one trick up his sleeve, in the early seventies the
US still was basically oil independent, i.e. it produced enough oil for its
own consumption. In an effort to protect U.S. oil companies against
foreign competition, it created imports restrictions. So, in exchange for
the lift of import restrictions, the OPEC countries promised they would
only accept dollars for their oil. This gave the dollar back the control it
lost when it gave up gold convertibility. Since the dollar was needed
to buy oil from the Middle Eastern countries (and everyone needs to
buy oil everyone needed dollars as well). In the last year or so, many
countries like the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) have
started to get away from the dollar as the world reserve currency.
Instead, they are trading in gold. What effect will this have on the
dollar and the United States? See Why (and How) China is Boosting
the Price of Gold for more information.
Many experts believe that this will inevitably force the dollar and the
monetary system as a whole back onto a defacto gold standard
whether it is an official gold standard or not. When countries reject the
idea of the dollar as the reserve currency, they will need something to
replace it. Gold is a natural fallback because of its consistency and
inherent value. When the monetary system returns to a gold standard,
the value of gold will go up (or the value of dollars will go down).
Anyone who has gold, will make a nice return on their investment.
Buy Gold as a Hedge Against
Inflation
Gold also works as a natural hedge against inflation. It is a substance
that has had some kind of value in every society the world has ever
seen. Being a physical asset, it always has some value relative to the
currency. While paper money has come and gone, 2000 years
ago, under the Roman Empire, an ounce of gold purchased an upper
class Roman citizen his toga (suit), a leather belt, and a pair of
sandals. Today, one ounce of gold will still buy a man a suit, a leather
belt, and a pair of shoes.
From this chart we can see that inflation has occurred on a massive
scale and will only get worse under the current system. As inflation
increases, the value of the gold in your portfolio will continue to go up
as well.
Some experts believe that someday we will buy gold for $10,000 an
ounce. With all of the debts that the central banks and governments
have racked up, at the current price, there isn’t enough gold in the
world to pay them all off. So the price per ounce must jump up
significantly. If the world rejects paper and wants “real assets” to
settle their debts, anyone who has gold is going to do quite well.
See Also:
Connect
with Tim on Google+.
Article 6
Since the early 70’s US inflation and gold prices have actually maintained a fairly high
correlation. Figure 1, which shows the year over year rates of change, shows that gold
prices have tended to track the CPI:
(Figure 1)
There has been a notable divergence over the last 10 years though. This is seen more
clearly in figure 2 where we clearly see that gold prices have soared nearly every year
during a period of stagnant economic growth in the USA that has generally been
characterized by low inflation (the low inflation is easily confirmed by dozens of other
independent variables including wages, bond yields, ISM price index data, ECRI Future
Inflation Gauge, etc).
(Figure 2)
So what gives? Why do gold prices continue to soar as the USA continues to suffer
through a period of low inflation and general economic malaise? The answer lies not in
the “central planning” of the US government, but everyone else’s favorite “central
planners” – China.
As we all know, China’s economy has roared to life over the last 10 years. Their
government has increased the money supply at a 17% annualized rate as they try to
sustain growth. Their inflation concerns are well documented.
Figure 3 shows the correlation between China’s CPI and gold prices over this period. As
you can see, it tells a dramatically different story than the US CPI data does:
(Figure 3)
About a year ago I described three bullish trends in gold prices. The third trend was
explained by UniCredit:
CR: I think the previous two trends are largely unfounded (though that
doesn’t mean they won’t persist), however, the third trend is very real.
UniCredit cites China’s surging demand for gold:
(Figure 4)
I’ve built all of this into my reasoning for thinking that gold is entering an irrational
bubble. And I believe one of the primary drivers of this inevitable bubble is this
misconception that the USA and the Federal Reserve are the primary causes of inflation
and gold prices. The reason the hyperinflation theory in the USA has been so wrong
(aside from misunderstanding how the modern monetary system works) is because the
hyperinflationists have misunderstood the actual cause of their inflation worries. They’ve
no doubt been right (in terms of gold), but they’ve been right for the wrong reasons. In
my opinion, it is not the “central planning” of the USA that is causing this fear trade.
Rather, the true fundamental driver is the Central Bank of China.
The key for investors will be understanding the point where the gold market reaches
disequilibrium based on these misconceptions (the Euro crisis and the Fed contribute
significantly to this misconception) and undergoes the inevitable collapse that always
follows a bubble. I personally don’t think we’re there yet. In the meantime, when
someone points to the Fed, the US government and their “central planning” or “money
printing” as the primary cause of the surge in the price of gold and justification of their
USA hyperinflation theory, you might do them a favor and let them know that they’re
right about the flaws of “central planning” and excessive “money printing”. You just
might want to also let them know that they’re focusing on the wrong central bank.
Stocks have now opened the year up 6%. Global interest rates are
on the move, with the U.S. 2-year Treasury trading above 2% for the
first time since 2008. Oil is trading in the mid $60s. And base metals
are trading toward the highest levels of the young, two-year bull
market in commodities.
On the inflation note, we’ve talked this week about the impact of
higher oil prices on inflation and the impact it may have on the path
of central bank policies (most importantly, the speed at which QE
may be coming to an end in Europe and Japan).
You can see in this chart, the very tight relationship of oil prices and
inflation expectations.
Reuters
REFERENCE THIS
Privatization:
This period has also introduced a remarkable change in the mindset of Indians, as it
deviates from the traditional values held, such as self reliance and socialistic policies of
economic development, resulted in the isolation, overall backwardness and inefficiency
of the economy. Despite the fact that India always had the potential to be on the fast track
to prosperity.
Globalization:
India is in the process of restructuring her economy, with aspirations of elevating from
her present position in the world, the need to economic development is even more
obligatory. And having witnessed the positive role that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
has played in the rapid economic growth of most of the Southeast Asian countries, India
has embarked on an ambitious plan to emulate the successes of her neighbors to the east
and is trying to sell herself as a safe and profitable destination for FDI.
Types of Inflation:
Inflation causes:
Extreme imbalance of Global economy.
Fuel Price hike.
Higher international farm price.
High Labor rates.
5. Increase in indirect tax by Govt.
Inflation rate is based on:
1. Consumer Price Index [CPI]
2. Producer Price Index [PPI]
Co-relation:
Crude oil prices continue to hit new peaks, and the correlations between the Canadian
Dollar, Euro, Australian Dollar, and US Dollar likewise trade near the top of their
historical ranges.
As long as US Dollar yields remain near record-lows, we may continue to see cross-
market correlations trade near historical strength across a broad range of raw materials
prices. This seems particularly true for high-flying Gold and Crude Oil prices.
Looking at market, there is no direct correlation between the 3 but an external relation
does exist.
Gold is an inflation Hedge. If inflation of any country increases, investors buy gold to
balance their port folio. So, Gold will move up.
Crude prices directly affect the oil import bill of any country. Increase in Imports Bill
will increase the Trade Deficit (Export - Imports) of countries. Higher Trade deficit
would hit the value of currency of the country.
This will affect the money circulation in the economy there by leading inflation. So, If
Crude price rises, Gold will also move up.
As you know most of the countries has got Foreign Reserves. And these reserves are in
form of Dollars. For example, India boasts about 140 Billion Dollars of reserves. If the
dollar looses value, the entire basket looses value. So, countries will look for safe heaven
i.e. Gold. If Dollar looses value, Gold will move up.
As quoted by Prasenjit Chakravorty
""Dollar is the backup currency worldwide. Price of commodities like oil and gold is
quoted in dollars in the stock market every day. So when the dollar weakens against the
rupee, imported items like oil, gold, etc, cost more dollars, and items we export earn more
dollars.-"That is how they are interrelated."
As stated by Tim Duraikannan Venkatraman
"Most of the stock market revolves around OIL price. So many metals prices are shifting
with Oil shares. Gold price is controlled by dollar value/reserve too. When shares were
falling GOLD was safe heaven for investors. Gold merchants always link gold with oil
price (a limit set) .I think soon or later GOLD will lose its ground (how long public will
buy 100dollars worth item for 400$? they will look for alternative"
#.Keynesian theory :
In the Keynesian approach potential
output serves only as the notional short
run maximum of feasible output.
Keynesian approach, also states the
excess increases in the total expenditure
(e.g., investment expenditure and
government expenditure) and the sources
of excess demand and hence inflation.
With Keysian Theory, the result is mixed. In short term there is no any clear cause and
effect relation which makes it almost impossible to state what happens to gold price when
dollar down wear away.
A long term trend analysis shows negative correlation between gold prices and the value
of dollar but gold price does not increase proportionately to the diminishing dollar.
As Keynes said at the later stage that there is no long term- I would go with the short
term result.
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