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STRUCTURA

DINAMICA
INDICATORI 2007 2014 2007 2014
2014/2007
Toatal pop 15864 15056 94.9 100.0 100.0
16-74 ani
pop care a
folosit 6847 9654 141.0 43.2 64.1
vreodata PC
salariat 4039 5523 136.7 59.0 57.2
patron 126 64 50.8 1.8 0.7
lucrator pe 377 845 224.1 5.5 8.8
cont propriu

somer 222 401 180.6 3.2 4.2


pensionar 332 889 267.8 4.8 9.2
elev, student 1506 1275 84.7 22.0 13.2
alte 244 658 269.7 3.6 6.8
serie
cronolo
Dinamica 15056/15864 *100
Structura 6847/15864 *100
4039/6847 *100
--------------------
ani salariat elevi, student pensionari alt
2007 4039 1506 332 244
2014 5523 1275 889 658

Reprezentarea structur ii

Row 18 Row 19

a l t; 244 a l t; 658
al t

pensi ona ri ; 332 pens i onari ; 889


pensi ona ri

el evi , student; 1506 el evi , student; 1,275


el evi , student

s al ari at; 4039 s al ari at; 5,523


s al ari at

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Serie cronologica
t Ani Pers 16-74 care au utlizat PC-ul
0 2007 4039
1 2008 3917
2 2009 4334
3 2010 4782
4 2011 4909
5 2012 5282
6 2013 5397
7 2014 5523
38183

Indicatori medii
I=
1. Nivelul
√(𝑛&𝐼_𝑛/𝐼_0 ) * mediu al seriei
100
y ajustat y= (4039+…5523)/8 4772.875

2. Modificarea medie absoluta

∆ ajustat ∆ = (In-I0)/n=(5523-4039)/7 212 mii pers n= 7

3. Indicele mediu de dinamica


x= 1.4
I ajustat y= 0.1

x=nr de sub
radical de radical
ordin n x^(1/Y) y=ordin 104.6 %

4. Ritmul mediu de dinamica

R,I - ajustat R= I-100 4.6


Cantitate ∆ I
t Ani -to- Yt Yt-Yt (yt-yt)^2 Yt Yt-Yt
0 2006 410 410 0 0 410 0
1 2007 438 433 5 25 429 9
2 2008 465 456 9 81 448 17
3 2009 460 479 -19 361 468 -8
4 2010 495 502 -7 49 489 6
5 2011 530 525 5 25 511 19
6 2012 545 548 -3 9 535 10
7 2013 567 571 -4 16 559 8
8 2014 600 594 6 36 584 16
9 2015 618 617 1 1 611 7
10 2016 640 640 0 0 640 0
603

Yt= y0+t*∆ 12.4939009511


∆= 640-410/10 23
Yo= y0+0*∆=410+0*23=410
Y1= y0+1*∆=410+1*23=423

Exporturile Romaniei pt 2005-2015


Export(FoB) ∆ I
t Ani mild euro Yt Yt-Yt (yt-yt)^2 Yt Yt-Yt
0 2005 22 22 0 0 22.0 0.0
1 2006 26 25.3 0.7 0.49 24.1 1.9
2 2007 30 28.6 1.4 1.96 26.4 3.6
3 2008 34 31.9 2.1 4.41 29.0 5.0
4 2009 29 35.2 -6.2 38.44 31.7 -2.7
5 2010 37 38.5 -1.5 2.25 34.8 2.2
6 2011 45 41.8 3.2 10.24 38.1 6.9
7 2012 45 45.1 -0.1 0.01 41.8 3.2
8 2013 50 48.4 1.6 2.56 45.8 4.2
9 2014 52 51.7 0.3 0.09 50.2 1.8
10 2015 55 55 0 0 55.0 0.0
60.45

∆= 3.3 mild euro 2.5 0.10


radical de
ord n 1.0960 109.60

previziune Yn+p=Yn+p*∆ P= 1 2 3
spor mediu Y2016= 58.3 mild euro
varianta
mecanica
previziune
spor mediu
varianta Y2017= 61.6 mild euro
mecanica Y2018= 64.9 mild euro

previziune Yn+p=Yn+P*∆*k k= 1.2


spor mediu Y2016= 58.96 mild euro
varianta Y2017= 62.92 mild euro
euristica Y2018= 66.88 mild euro

previziune Yn+p=Yn*I^P
indice mediu Y2016= 60.3 mild euro
varianta Y2017= 66.1 mild euro
mecanica Y2018= 72.4 mild euro

previziune Yn+p=Yn*I^P*k
indice mediu Y2016= 72.33 mild euro
varianta Y2017= 75.50 mild euro
euristica Y2018= 80.26 mild euro
I
(yt-yt)^2
0
81
289
64
36
361
100
64
256
49
0
1300

I
(yt-yt)^2
0.0
3.6
12.8
25.4
7.5
4.9
47.3
10.4
17.7
3.3
0.0
132.8

1.0960
VAL. INCASARI α=0.2 α=0.7
LUNA MIL LEI
y1 yt yt-yt (yt-yt)^2 yt yt-yt (yt-yt)^2
Oct-16 5 4.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0
Nov-16 3 4.2 -1.2 1.4 4.7 -1.7 2.9
Dec-16 2 4.0 -2.0 3.8 3.5 -1.5 2.3
Ian-17 3 3.6 -0.6 0.3 2.5 0.5 0.3
Feb-17 4 3.5 0.5 0.3 2.8 1.2 1.4
Mar-17 5 3.6 1.4 2.1 3.7 1.3 1.8
17-Apr 3.9 9.0 9.6

yt+1=α*yt+(1-α)*yt
y aprilie α*ymarte+(1-α)*y marte
y marte α*yfebr+(1-α)*yfebr
y febr α*yian+(1-α)*yian
y ian α*ydec+(1-α)*ydec
y dec α*ynov+(1-α)*ynov
y nov α*yoct+(1-α)*yoct

α 0.2 α 0.7
y oct 4.0 mil lei y oct 4.0 mil lei
y nov 4.2 mil lei y nov 4.7 mil lei
y dec 4.0 mil lei y dec 3.5 mil lei
y ian 3.6 mil lei y ian 2.5 mil lei
y febr 3.5 mil lei y febr 2.8 mil lei
ymar 3.6 mil lei ymar 3.7 mil lei

α 0.2
y apr 3.88 mil lei

0
O c t-1 6 N o v- 1 6 D ec -1 6 I an -1 7 Fe b - 1 7 M a r-1 7 A p r- 1 7
exporturile unei societat comerciale a avut in perioada
2005-2015 urmatoarea evolute
y
Exporturi
Ani t y*t t^2 yt
-mii euro-
2005 170 -5 -850 25 170.8
2006 209 -4 -836 16 537.8
2007 245 -3 -735 9 244.2
2008 277 -2 -554 4 280.9
2009 320 -1 -320 1 317.6
2010 353 0 0 0 354.3
2011 390 1 390 1 391.0
2012 431 2 862 4 427.7
2013 468 3 1404 9 464.4
2014 494 4 1976 16 501.1
2015 540 5 2700 25 537.8
TOTAL 3897 0 4037 110 4227.3

yt=a+b*t
n=11
na+b∑t=∑y
a∑t+b∑t^2=∑y
∑t=0
a=∑y/n
b=∑yt/∑t^2
∑(yt-yt)^2 y2016
a= 354.3 y2017
b= 36.7 y2018

yt= 354.3 + 36.7 * t


yt2005= 170.8
yt2015= 537.8
574.5
611.2
647.9
Pentru perioada 2004-2015 se cunosc urmatoarele niveluri ale
produsului intern brut al Romaniei
y
PIB
Ani t y*t t^2 yt
-mild lei-
2004 247 -6 -1482 36 286.6 Chart Titl
2005 289 -5 -1445 25 322.3 800
2006 345 -4 -1380 16 358.1 f(x) = 40.6538461538x - 81192.8
700
2007 416 -3 -1248 9 393.8 R² = 0.964016654
2008 515 -2 -1030 4 429.6 600
2009 501 -1 -501 1 465.3 500
2010 524 1 524 1 536.8 400
2011 565 2 1130 4 572.6
300
2012 595 3 1785 9 608.3
2013 637 4 2548 16 644.1 200
2014 668 5 3340 25 679.8 100
2015 711 6 4266 36 715.6 0
TOTAL 6013 0 6507 182 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

yt=a+b*t
n=11
na+b∑t=∑y
a∑t+b∑t^2=∑y
∑t=0
a=∑y/n
b=∑yt/∑t^2
∑(yt-yt)^2 y2016
a= 501.1 y2017
b= 35.8 y2018

yt= 501.1 + 35.8 * t


yt2005= 322.3
yt2015= 715.6
Chart Title
f(x) = 40.6538461538x - 81192.8205128209
R² = 0.964016654

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

751.4
787.1
822.9