DAILY GRAINS COMMENTARY

Wednesday March 14, 2018

DAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY

03/14/18

Focus shift to US supply outlook could bring back the bears

OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 6:05 AM (CT):

SOY BEANS +1.4, BEAN OIL +0.1, SOYMEAL +2.8

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: May soybeans are trading up 2 1/2 cents this

morning. May soybean meal is up $3.40. Malaysian palm oil futures are up
1.1%. Dalian soybean futures are up 0.5% this morning. Deliveries in soybeans
were 0, leaving the month-to-date total at 821 contracts. Meal deliveries were 0
this morning and reached 864 for the month. Soybean oil deliveries were 22 today and 5,151 contracts for the
month-to-date. Global equity markets overnight were mixed with Asian stocks lower and some European markets
managing to claw out minor gains. Japanese machinery orders jumped by 8.2% in the most recent figures which
in turn shows the Japanese economy to be moving forward. Chinese industrial production readings managed to
surpass expectations with a gain of 7.2% and Chinese retail sales managed to come in much better than
expectations with a gain of 9.7%. Other economic information released overnight included German CPI for the
month of February that matched expectations and improved from the prior month. Also released early today were
Italian retail sales figures that once again contracted. The North American session will start out a private weekly
survey of mortgage applications, followed by February retail sales that are expected to see a moderate uptick
from January's -0.3% reading. The February producer price index is forecast to have a minimal uptick from
January's 2.7% year-over-year rate. January business inventories are expected to hold steady with December's
0.4% reading.

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The market seems to have priced-in the Argentina crop damage and
as focus shifts to the US situation or the possibility of a trade war with China, fund traders could lighten up on long
positions. If US producers plant more acres than the current USDA projection and yield comes in at 50 bu/acre of
so (record is 52), then the market could struggle to avoid record high ending stocks. Soybean meal rebounded
yesterday with a strong push higher. May soybean meal settled up $5.10 yesterday and is showing solid gains
this morning on further Argentine production declines. Several US biodiesel supporters have sent letters to
Congressional leaders asking for the extension of the $1.00 per gallon tax credit to be extended through 2018 and
this helped to support strong gains in soybean oil yesterday. A noted South American crop scout lowered their
Argentine soybean production by 2.0 million tonnes to 43.0 million tonnes with a lower bias going forward.
They left their Brazilian crop unchanged at 114.0 million tonnes.

Support in the market was also due to comments from the President of Cofco, China's largest food company,
stating that an escalating trade war would be a blow to the global economy. He downplayed the prospects of
soybeans being used as a political "football" and said the US supply of soybeans is the most important resource
for all soybean importers from China because the US market is very open and efficient. He also commented that
the Chinese government is still encouraging companies to buy US soybeans and expects officials to facilitate
discussions with the Trump Administration over trade issues. The forecast for the northern regions of Argentina
could see wetter conditions in the 11-15 day forecast. Brazil is forecast to see heavy persistent rainfall over the
next two weeks in Mato Grosso which could start to cause some quality concerns as well as harvest delays.
Areas in southern Brazil's Rio Grande du Sol should get beneficial rains over the next week.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:

The meal spreads rebounded nicely yesterday with the rally in flat price soybean meal, but the soybean spreads
fizzled out. The nearby May/July traded down to -11, down 1 cent on the day and matching the contract low. The
July/November settled up 1 cent at +16 cent inverse but well off the daily high at +19 3/4 cent inverse. Argentina
looks to get the best rain of the season, but most feel they are coming too late to add to production. The spread
activity in soybeans could be indicating that the market favors additional retracements. May soybean selling
resistance is at 1057 1/4 and 1063 1/4. Support is at 1031 followed by 1018 3/4.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
* Sell July soybeans at 1065 with an objective of 1028. Risk to 1079.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
Short the May Soybean 1100 call and long May soybean 1030 put from + 1 cent. Use an objective of +29 cents
on the spread and risk a total of 11 cents from entry.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that
may appear elsewhere in this report.

SOYBEANS (MAY) 03/14/2018: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price
action. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market setup
is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside target is now at
1037. The next area of resistance is around 1054 and 1058 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 1043 1/2 and
below there at 1037.

SOYBEAN OIL (MAY) 03/14/2018: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower
price action. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication the intermediate-term
trend has turned positive. The market has a bullish tilt coming into today's trade with the close above the 2nd
swing resistance. The next downside objective is now at 31.53. The next area of resistance is around 32.50 and
32.66, while 1st support hits today at 31.94 and below there at 31.53.

SOYMEAL (MAY) 03/14/2018: Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying
up soon. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The
market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside
objective is now at 367.9. The next area of resistance is around 378.9 and 381.6, while 1st support hits today at
372.1 and below there at 367.9.

DAILY CORN COMMENTARY

03/14/18

In position for some back and fill but trend up

OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 6:05 AM (CT):

CORN -0.6

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: May corn is trading 1/2 of a cent lower this

morning. Dalian corn futures are slightly higher this morning. Outside market
forces are mixed. There were 0 corn contracts delivered this morning leaving
the month-to-date to 1,538 contracts.

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: With very strong export sales news in the past few weeks and the
potential for Brazil to see a significant adjustment lower in corn production for the old crop season, the market
uptrend may continue. Prices could get choppy as soybeans see a downside correction but with tightening global
stocks, the market still seems a bit undervalued. Technically, the market is extremely overbought but as long as
open interest remains in a steep uptrend, posting a record high again yesterday, the market may stay overbought.
May corn extended the rally yesterday to the highest level since August 14th. US exporters announced the sale of
210,000 tonnes of optional origin corn to South Korea yesterday. The open interest in corn went up 16,224
contracts on Monday with total open interest at a record high of 1.837 million contracts. The new record is now
yesterday at 1,860,079. Some private weather forecasts are starting to caution about wet weather and planting
delays that may begin in early April for the southern Midwest and Delta.

The two week forecast in Argentina has increased rains that should favor the northern and central regions of the
belt. Amounts of 0.50 to 2.00 inches with general coverage are expected, but may be too late to add bushels. A
noted South American crop scout has lowered their Argentine corn production by 1.0 million tonnes to 34.0 million
tonnes with a lower bias expected. They also left their Brazilian corn production unchanged at 86.0 million tonnes
compared to the latest USDA estimate at 94.5 million tonnes. EPA Chief Scott Pruitt believes there is a chance
that the agency can legally grant a waiver lifting the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) requirements, so gasoline
containing 15% ethanol can be sold year round. The average estimate for today's ethanol production is 1.058
million barrels per day in a range of 1.045 to 1.068 million. Stockpiles are estimated at 23.1 million barrels in a
range of 22.8 to 23.34 million barrels.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:

The corn market continues in a bull trend with the trade beginning to focus on spring planting weather and the
planting intention report at the end of the month. After last week's USDA report and the surge in exports the last
two months, an acreage number above 90.0 million is needed, especially if yields are below trend 174.5 bushels
per acre. May corn support is at 386 3/4 followed by 379 3/4. Resistance is at 394 1/2 followed by 397 1/2.
Consider buying near 380 with 400 3/4 as next upside target.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
Long May Corn 380 call, short May Corn 430 call, and short May Corn 350 put from a net premium paid of +2
cents on the spread. Use an objective of +17 cents, and risk a total of 4 cents from entry.

CORN TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that
may appear elsewhere in this report.

CORN (MAY) 03/14/2018: Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to
reinforce a downside break especially if near term support is penetrated. The market's short-term trend is positive
on the close above the 9-day moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in
a slightly bullish posture. The next downside objective is 386 3/4. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is
approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 394 1/2 and 397 1/2, while 1st support hits
today at 389 and below there at 386 3/4.

DAILY WHEAT COMMENTARY

03/14/18

Cold temperatures heading into Europe

OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 6:05 AM (CT):

WHEAT -2.4

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Chicago May wheat is down 1 3/4 cents this

morning and Kansas City May wheat is down 2 cents. Matif milling wheat
futures are up 0.46%. Outside market forces are mixed. There were 2 contracts
of Kansas City wheat delivered putting the total at 440 contracts. There were 3
Chicago deliveries to push the month-to-date to 12.

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: French wheat exports are now seen at 17.1 million tonnes, down
2.4% from last month's estimate according to FranceAgriMer. Wheat stockpiles at the end of the season were
seen at 3.17 million tonnes down from the previous estimate of 3.25 million tonnes. Barley exports were seen at
6.6 million tonnes down 1.9% from the previous estimate. Europe's agricultural traders will be watching the
weather closely as a cold snap is forecast for next week into France, Germany and Poland. Temperatures are
forecast to drop sharply to as low as 7 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit. Chicago May wheat reversed course yesterday
after trading higher early in the day. Early support was seen from Monday's state wheat crop conditions that
showed minor crop deterioration in Kansas and minor improvements in Texas and Oklahoma. Kansas
good/excellent (G/EX) rating went down 1% to 12% last week with the poor/very-poor (P/VP) ratings up 3% to
53%. Oklahoma's G/EX went up 1% to 7% and the P/VP went down 5% to 72%. Texas G/EX went up 3% to 13%
and the P/VP went down 9% to 53% last week. The midday 11-15 day update showed better chances of moisture
in the Plains for late March and early April which may have sparked selling interest.

However, the National Weather Service 6-10 and 8-14 outlook continues to hold a drier trend for Oklahoma,
Texas and southern Kansas. The wheat growing region from Texas to southwest Kansas has had the driest
December-February period on record according to the National Weather Service. Spain's 2018-19 soft wheat
production is seen at 5.1 million tonnes up 33% from last year's 3.9 million tonnes. Barley production is seen
rising to 7.1 million tonnes versus 5.6 million this past year. SovEcon raised the 2018 Russian wheat production
by 900,000 tonnes to 77.6 million tonnes with Russian wheat exports for the 2018-19 season at 36.8 million
tonnes not far behind the 2017-18 season's 37.5 million tonne export figure. Algeria bought 120,000 tonnes of
wheat for June shipment at an average price of $226 per tonne. Iraq is tendering for 50,000 tonnes of wheat from
US, Canada or Australia. Japan bought 119,610 tonnes of milling wheat. Preliminary open interest in Chicago
went up 17,383 contracts on Monday and Kansas City went down 215 contracts.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:

Chicago May wheat settled poorly and looks to test the 200 day moving average at 480 1/2. A close below this
level is negative and could extend down to 475 3/4. Weather in the Plains remains the wild card, but Kansas City
wheat continues to perform better than Chicago. Aggressive traders should look to buy KC July wheat and sell
Chicago wheat on a pullback to 26 1/2 to 22 1/2 cents premium KC. July KC wheat buying support is back at 521
today.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

WHEAT TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that
may appear elsewhere in this report.

WHEAT (MAY) 03/14/2018: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price
action. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains
negative. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on the defensive. The market tilt is slightly
negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside objective is now at 475 3/4. The next area of
resistance is around 493 and 502, while 1st support hits today at 480 and below there at 475 3/4.

KC WHEAT (MAY) 03/14/2018: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if
support levels are taken out. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. It is a
slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is now at 507 3/4.
The next area of resistance is around 527 3/4 and 538, while 1st support hits today at 512 3/4 and below there at
507 3/4.

MINN WHEAT (MAY) 03/14/2018: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move
higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day
moving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside
target is at 632 1/2. The next area of resistance is around 628 3/4 and 632 1/2, while 1st support hits today at 622
1/4 and below there at 619 1/2.

RICE (MAY) 03/14/2018: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action.
The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market could take on
a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was
lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside target is now at 12.188. The next area of resistance is
around 12.325 and 12.407, while 1st support hits today at 12.215 and below there at 12.188.

DAILY TECHNICAL STATISTICS

14 DAY 14 DAY
9 DAY 14 DAY SLOW SLOW 4 DAY 9 DAY 18 DAY 45 DAY 60 DAY
CLOSE RSI RSI STOCH D STOCH K M AVG M AVG M AVG M AVG M AVG
GRAIN COMPLEX
CNAK8 391 3/4 74.22 73.43 89.61 87.52 391.63 388.97 382.60 372.07 368.79
CNAN8 399 3/4 76.19 74.72 91.82 90.01 399.19 396.36 390.14 379.87 376.74
SSAK8 1048 3/4 50.45 55.29 60.45 44.57 1048.25 1061.06 1052.32 1016.86 1007.20
SSAN8 1059 1/2 51.76 56.15 61.39 46.28 1057.94 1070.03 1061.43 1026.28 1016.82
SMAK8 375.5 46.53 53.64 43.84 26.22 375.73 384.19 382.87 356.04 347.72
BOAK8 32.22 51.19 48.54 34.48 34.47 31.85 32.10 32.17 32.57 32.80
WHAK8 486 1/2 49.25 53.20 65.40 57.47 491.44 499.42 485.38 465.88 459.11
WHAN8 504 1/2 51.85 55.31 69.09 62.52 508.19 514.81 500.38 479.82 472.84
RCAK8 12.270 39.88 43.50 57.26 51.23 12.33 12.42 12.31 12.42 12.38
KWAK8 520 1/4 53.60 57.87 75.24 68.33 524.06 532.75 513.43 483.78 472.74
MWAK8 625 1/2 54.58 53.25 53.51 55.81 623.06 624.50 619.42 620.82 622.14
OTAK8 263 1/4 42.45 46.24 40.52 34.41 263.38 266.25 266.57 263.78 260.72
Calculations based on previous session. Data collected 03/13/2018
Data sources can & do produce bad ticks. Verify before use.

DAILY SWING STATISTICS

Contract Support 2 Support 1 Pivot Resist 1 Resist 2
GRAIN COMPLEX
CNAK8 Corn 386 1/2 389 392 394 1/2 397 1/2
CNAN8 Corn 394 3/4 397 400 402 1/2 405 1/4
SSAK8 Soybeans 1037 1043 1/2 1047 3/4 1054 1058 1/2
SSAN8 Soybeans 1047 1/2 1054 1058 1/4 1065 1069
SMAK8 Soymeal 367.8 372.0 374.7 378.9 381.6
BOAK8 Soybean Oil 31.52 31.93 32.09 32.50 32.66
WHAK8 Wheat 475 3/4 480 489 493 502 1/4
WHAN8 Wheat 494 1/4 498 1/2 506 1/2 510 1/2 518 3/4
RCAK8 Rice 12.187 12.214 12.297 12.325 12.407
KWAK8 KC Wheat 507 3/4 512 1/2 523 528 538 1/4
MWAK8 MINN Wheat 619 1/2 622 1/4 626 628 3/4 632 1/2
OTAK8 Oats 260 1/4 261 1/2 264 265 267 3/4
Calculations based on previous session. Data collected 03/13/2018
Data sources can & do produce bad ticks. Verify before use.

This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent
verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
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other circumstances or characterizations of particular investors or traders; (ii) is not customized or personalized for any such investor or trader;
and (iii) does not take into consideration, among other things, risk tolerance, net worth, or available risk capital. Any use or reliance upon the
information or recommendations is at the sole discretion and election of the subscriber. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or
commodity options can be substantial, and traders should carefully consider the inherent risks of such trading in light of their financial
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